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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2017, 04:51:07 PM

Title: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 03, 2017, 04:51:07 PM
Well, I was going to post a picture of how wonderful SoCal weather is right now, but uploading/posting pictures isn't as easy as the old board.

So we'll start with this:

Global Temperature Update (http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2017/02/global-temperature-update.html)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on February 03, 2017, 05:23:10 PM
Well, I was going to post a picture of how wonderful SoCal weather is right now, but uploading/posting pictures isn't as easy as the old board.

So we'll start with this:

Global Temperature Update (http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2017/02/global-temperature-update.html)

I love awesome weather.  Git 80 at my house two days ago.  Supposed to be 90 on Tuesday.

You know, real honest-to-goodness FOOTBALL WEATHER!  8)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 19, 2017, 09:50:42 PM
testing to see if I broke anything.....

this thing WILL be ready by June when the debtors server goes offline, hide and watch.... and all of it will work as expected.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on March 19, 2017, 09:51:16 PM
that part worked^..... let's see if this one does!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 11, 2017, 09:06:10 AM
Things seem to be delayed about two or three weeks this year.  Corn was not knee high by the 4th of July.  Lightening bugs have just started showing up.  Scapes on the garlic in early July instead of early June.  All these things indicate that a new ice age is imminent.

(https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GISS2001_2015.gif)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 15, 2017, 09:42:34 AM
Some record flooding going on in NE Illinois and SE Wisconsin right now.

It was a challenge to get to Kenosha yesterday. Most of the E-W roads in Illinois were closed due to overtopping. The bridges are higher in Wisconsin.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on July 16, 2017, 10:25:25 AM
Research Team Slams Global Warming Data In New Report: "Not Reality... Totally Inconsistent With Credible Temperature Data"

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi0.wp.com%2Fshtfplan.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F07%2Fglobal-warming-data1.jpg%3Fresize%3D560%252C264&hash=129b5f71ef1968ed6e0a269c6deee3a0)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-15/research-team-slams-global-warming-data-new-report-not-reality-totally-inconsistent- (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-15/research-team-slams-global-warming-data-new-report-not-reality-totally-inconsistent-)




Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on August 07, 2017, 09:14:28 AM
TEMPERATURE READINGS PLUNGE AFTER AUSTRALIA’S BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY ORDERS END TO ‘TAMPERING’ http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/08/04/temperatures-plunge-after-australias-bureau-of-meteorology-orders-fix/ (http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/08/04/temperatures-plunge-after-australias-bureau-of-meteorology-orders-fix/)


As one comment on the story suggests, it's more proof that climate change is indeed man made.


Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 07, 2017, 11:42:28 AM
http://theconversation.com/climate-change-to-blame-for-australias-july-heat-81953

Kind of interesting reading about winter in July.  In any event, sounds unusually warm.  Almost as if there might be something going on ... :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on August 17, 2017, 08:39:29 AM
British explorer sets sail for the North Pole. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-40935252/pen-hadow-sets-sail-for-north-pole-as-arctic-ice-melts (http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-40935252/pen-hadow-sets-sail-for-north-pole-as-arctic-ice-melts) 

"They are unsure how far North they will be able to sail." 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2017, 09:05:09 AM
One issue I see with climate change is nuts and bolts, e.g., how do enough fast enough to make much difference. 


We could implement a shift to nuclear power in 15 years or so for electricity (globally) but that won't happen.  The rate at which more wind and solar can contribute from a very low base is simply not fast enough even if we through money at it.


If we went to zero carbon today, globally, we'd still have significant climate change, according to the various models.  If every country met the Paris targets, the reduction in global temperatures would be rather small, again using the models.


I see politicians signing agreements because that's what they do, but real tangible progress to reducing carbon to me looks like something that won't happen fast enough to "stop" these trends.  The one thing that might intercept and make a difference would be if ITER works and we can somehow developed practicable fusion reactors in a decade, but that also looks unlikely.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2017, 10:25:47 AM
https://www.iter.org/



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 17, 2017, 01:02:48 PM
Rainless in Seattle: http://www.kiro7.com/news/local/record-dry-streak-ends-rainfall-returns-to-seattle/590452989

"Late Saturday night, the streak of 55 consecutive dry days at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport ended with 0.02" inches measured. Rainfall continued throughout the pacific northwest Sunday morning. The previous record of 51 days was set in 1951."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on August 17, 2017, 01:29:41 PM
The climate will change regardless of human interference, it always has, always will.  The rate of change from human activity is difficult to quantify.  The actual change has been less than most models show, although the rate of change has increased since the industrial revolution.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 25, 2017, 08:54:53 PM
stay safe in Texas during the Hurricane



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 28, 2017, 08:28:43 PM
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1987/02/23/atchafalaya


Read it. Think about it. No more levees and dams. Take them all out, and move people out of harm's way.

Low lying cities need to mitigate the many years of mistakes made on stormwater management. The time is now.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 28, 2017, 11:38:48 PM
folks are drawn to the waterfront for a reason
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 06:54:13 AM
Some waters are safe to live on, such as the Great Lakes. Others, not so much. We do not have gills.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on August 29, 2017, 08:02:33 AM
The cost to rebuild much of Houston and flooded TX and LA communities will be enormous.  I don't think one can count on going another 12 years before the next major hurricane hits the US and this repeats.  Not sure what the answer is.  There's a reason why there is so much industry along the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on August 29, 2017, 09:03:59 AM
Settlements were built near water because water is the most cost effective way to move large quantities of goods.  That hasn't changed.  The working class that keeps that industry moving cannot afford a long commute and has to live near the water's edge.  That puts in in harm's way when a hurricane hits.  Moving everyone inland is not going to be a viable solution.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MaximumSam on August 29, 2017, 09:33:23 AM
Isaac's Storm, which is about the Galveston hurricane a hundred years ago, is a pretty quick and good read.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2017, 09:53:15 AM
The cost of moving populations away from flood plains is obviously something that means it won't happen aside from some sparsely populated areas that are in bad shape.

We think we can control Nature, still.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 10:15:17 AM
There are solutions. People just refuse to open their minds to them for fear of change.

Insanity prevails.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2017, 11:22:23 AM
It boggles my mind to try and think about what this would mean in Cincinnati alone.

Covington, KY sits behind large dikes and of course the Ohio River is made navigable only by use of dams.

The 1937 Cincinnati flood was major for this part of the world.

The flood plain on which much of Cincy is located has a small river running through the middle of it that the Ohio backs into during floods except for the flood gates.  They pump the Mill Creek water over the flood gate in effect to prevent flooding.

It works.  I have seen one or two rather large floods here in my life in Cincy but nothing that did much damage to infrastructure.  Without all of the dikes, the Cincy flood plain would have to be abandoned.

That would be almost all of the built up urban area.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 11:39:23 AM
Mother Nature wants her floodplain back, and she also wants America's Wetland back.

There would be no flooding whatsoever if the full storage in floodplains were available.

Think big, start small.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: bayareabadger on August 29, 2017, 12:27:55 PM
Outside the larger discussion, I spent too much of this morning reading up on the Cajun Navy. 

What a bunch of God damn heros. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on August 29, 2017, 12:34:51 PM
Mother Nature wants her floodplain back, and she also wants America's Wetland back.

There would be no flooding whatsoever if the full storage in floodplains were available.

Think big, start small.
To clear all the floodplains, you would have to relocate about 70% of all urban areas.  But you are correct, levees built to hold back water in one area increase the impact on the areas up and downstream of the levee.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2017, 12:41:04 PM
As I said, I can't begin to imagine how Cincy would do this, ever.  There isn't even a "start small" notional concept around.

It's not going to happen, so I guess thinking about it is futile anyway.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 01:17:31 PM
To clear all the floodplains, you would have to relocate about 70% of all urban areas.  But you are correct, levees built to hold back water in one area increase the impact on the areas up and downstream of the levee.
I know I'm correct. I do floodplain work for a living.

The entire Mississippi is constrained by levees. Start there.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2017, 01:22:41 PM
Just remove the levies and then what?  Would this not mean moving millions of people and thousands of buildings and cost hundreds of trillions of dollars?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 02:16:29 PM
There is a whole lot of real estate between Minneapolis and New Orleans that is uninhabited or sparsely populated.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 29, 2017, 02:23:38 PM
And just how do you propose this? There's a bunch of sparsely populated real estate, yes. With no homes. No schools. No infrastructure. So all of that needs to be built from scratch.

And then what? You just tell people they have to move? Who pays for it? What if they refuse? What if the people who *aren't* in floodplains don't want to move out of the city they know and love but everyone else is being forcibly evacuated?

I respect your position that these cities should never have been built where they are. But sometimes the cost of changing a situation far exceeds the cost of dealing with the floods when they occur.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 29, 2017, 02:26:05 PM

Tired of Hurricanes? 

Come on up to Tornado alley. 

They may be more frequent and deadly, but they have a much narrower path of destruction. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 02:28:22 PM
And just how do you propose this? There's a bunch of sparsely populated real estate, yes. With no homes. No schools. No infrastructure. So all of that needs to be built from scratch.

And then what? You just tell people they have to move? Who pays for it? What if they refuse? What if the people who *aren't* in floodplains don't want to move out of the city they know and love but everyone else is being forcibly evacuated?

I respect your position that these cities should never have been built where they are. But sometimes the cost of changing a situation far exceeds the cost of dealing with the floods when they occur.
You misunderstood my point. The point is that there is a lot of land protected by levee that does not need to be.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 29, 2017, 04:24:43 PM
You misunderstood my point. The point is that there is a lot of land protected by levee that does not need to be.
Ahh. I thought you were talking about moving people out of floodplains in very populous areas.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2017, 04:36:28 PM
In certain areas (New Orleans is first on the list) I would propose doing that. Not only do you have storm surge risk, but you have floodplain risk from the Mississippi and surrounding lakes.

Hurricane Katrina cost $250 billion (estimates vary but this is on the low side). Roughly 400,000 people live there. That's $625,000.00 per person - and it's not done yet.

Terrible decision to rebuild those parts of the city (around 90 percent of it) that are subject to inundation.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2017, 09:42:05 AM
The French Quarter did not flood, or so I was told.  

Downtown NOLA looks like most downtown districts today.

They recovered.  They aren't going to move.  It may be fine in theory, but it simply is not going to happen.

Cincinnati isn't going to move either.

The dikes will stay in place.  Maybe some protecting farm land could be eliminated, but the flood waters may reach towns if that happens depending.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2017, 09:51:38 AM
Right, and at the time, I told anyone who would listen that the FQ could stay, but the rest, not so much.

I walked away from a very lucrative project (West Closure Complex) with the Army Corps of Engineers because I didn't believe in what they were doing. My partner about killed me but I just couldn't be a part of it.

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/

All that money and it still won't solve the problem if something more than a Cat 3 hits NO again, or a rain like Houston just got, or back-to-back heavy rains, or or or...

This is not sustainable. Doing something for nothing is what they did. We need to do something for something.

Doing nothing would have been better in this instance.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2017, 11:11:35 AM
You likely are right in some ideal scenario, but it just won't happen.  Nobody is seriously even talking about it.

Control is going to be the attempt even if it fails on occasion.

Downtown Cincy would flood every couple of years without the levies and the pumps for the Mill Creek.  With those devices, it never floods.  Of course we don't have hurricanes, though Hurricane Ike did a surprisingly amount of "dry damage" with high wins a few years ago, no rain, but very high winds.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: rolltidefan on September 01, 2017, 04:58:46 PM
The cost to rebuild much of Houston and flooded TX and LA communities will be enormous.  I don't think one can count on going another 12 years before the next major hurricane hits the US and this repeats.  Not sure what the answer is.  There's a reason why there is so much industry along the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi.
it might not last another 12 days. irma is a cat 3 and still in mid atlantic. lots of uncertainty on path still, but decent chance it moves into gulf and makes us landfall, likely as a high cat 4 or cat 5 if it does that. this one has a chance to be a monster. also a chance to skirt the east coast and do little to nothing, though.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2017, 08:21:06 AM
You likely are right in some ideal scenario, but it just won't happen.  Nobody is seriously even talking about it.

Control is going to be the attempt even if it fails on occasion.

Downtown Cincy would flood every couple of years without the levies and the pumps for the Mill Creek.  With those devices, it never floods.  Of course we don't have hurricanes, though Hurricane Ike did a surprisingly amount of "dry damage" with high wins a few years ago, no rain, but very high winds.
Yet.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on September 02, 2017, 08:41:18 AM
The whole Houston / Harvey situation was discussed on the Energy Gang podcast (GreenTechMedia.com) this week. One of the regular hosts, Jigar Shah, who founded SunEdison and now has a company that invests in renewable energy projects, is a staunch proponent of not redeveloping places like the Gulf Coast when they're ravaged by hurricanes and other natural disasters, and I tend to agree. It's absurd to me that they apparently have minimal regulations on how they develop their land, and apparently there are many instances of homes that have taken advantage of flood insurance programs to the point where they have gotten paid a multiple on the value of their homes.

There's an electricity topic on the unmoderated board, so I'll try to keep my thoughts on energy there. The big news of late in that world is the DOE report that Rick Perry asked for that was recently published, and the continuing demise of nuclear projects, particularly in the Southeast.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 02, 2017, 09:48:39 AM
I'm guessing that if the government did not foot the bill to rebuild areas in repeated peril of natural disasters, many folks wouldn't live there.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2017, 01:07:13 PM
I'm guessing that if the government   certain if taxpayers like us did not foot the bill to rebuild areas in repeated peril of natural disasters, many folks wouldn't live there.
Fixed.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2017, 01:09:18 PM
Harvey is NOT a natural disaster. It's man-made because man put a city in harm's way, and they knew it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2017, 08:58:33 AM
We just drove along the Gulf Coast from NOLA to Mobile and a lot of the houses that used to be there are gone now.  You have the beach, a four lane highway, and then large lots where apparently nice houses once existed.  I didn't see much/any construction on those parcels.  The cities/towns of course remain in the region with casinos right on the Gulf, though often I noted thin islands, possibly man made break waters, about half a mile off shore.

They help with waves but not storm surge/high tide.

The newer buildings were all elevated, only parking underneath.

This notion that climate change intensified Harvey is very speculative and no climate scientist is going to go there with definition.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2017, 09:10:12 AM
I'm sure humans will try and construct artificial items to manage future calamities.

I even think they will work on occasion.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on September 04, 2017, 01:56:31 PM
I meant to post this earlier but I got sidetracked, anyways the absolute strangest thing happened Friday night in Phoenix. I was working that evening and work often has me outdoors. It was of course hot that day but dry so once the sun went down it actually was quite tolerable outside. 

But then somewhere between 10 and 11 pm it happened. It got hotter, or so it felt. At 10 I wasn't sweating at all, but by 11 I was drenched. Weird as hell. Finally got off work at 11:30 and checked the weather, the temp had actually stayed the same (hovering in the low 90s the past few hours) so I was baffled, maybe it was me?!? I knew better though and checked the dewpoint and VIOLA, found my culprit. The damn dewpoint literally rose 20 degrees (from mid 40s to mid 60s) in a span of 2 hours. Made all the difference in the world. 

Apparently some moisture from either the gulf or Pacific just up and crept it's way over southern and central AZ (which itself isn't that strange, we do have monsoons this time of year) but didn't really bring any clouds or rain with it, just sticky ass humidity. Yuck.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on September 04, 2017, 02:38:52 PM
In my little town of 5,000, we have a Mississippi tributary that has flooded frequently since we arrived, starting in 1993 -- I am guessing it was not as frequent in the years before 1993, but no doubt there was some flooding.

Several homes were removed from the flood plain. Several businesses were removed from the flood plain. Now there is rebuilding in the flood plain (this is where the highest traffic counts are in town so it is potentially valuable real estate to develop). These new entrepreneurs are dumping piles of dirt in the flood plain to build a building in the floodplain that is above the flood table. Finally some of the other owners in what I would say is the 500-year flood plain are just now figuring out that it is like a bath tub and if you displace flood plain with dirt, buildings and parking lots, it moves the flood waters higher. They have talked to the city council but have done nothing else.

I practice law. It surprises me no one filed a nuisance lawsuit against the people who buy floodplain land and develop it at the expense of their neighbors. Problem is one person filing suit that benefits many other owners who don't pay. There is no association of neighboring owners to do the right thing.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on September 04, 2017, 07:42:20 PM
it could be quite simple

if the independent insurance company would allow you to purchase flood insurance, the government shouldn't pay for damages

then the bank wouldn't extend the loan to purchase
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 04, 2017, 08:40:26 PM
In my little town of 5,000, we have a Mississippi tributary that has flooded frequently since we arrived, starting in 1993 -- I am guessing it was not as frequent in the years before 1993, but no doubt there was some flooding.

Several homes were removed from the flood plain. Several businesses were removed from the flood plain. Now there is rebuilding in the flood plain (this is where the highest traffic counts are in town so it is potentially valuable real estate to develop). These new entrepreneurs are dumping piles of dirt in the flood plain to build a building in the floodplain that is above the flood table. Finally some of the other owners in what I would say is the 500-year flood plain are just now figuring out that it is like a bath tub and if you displace flood plain with dirt, buildings and parking lots, it moves the flood waters higher. They have talked to the city council but have done nothing else.

I practice law. It surprises me no one filed a nuisance lawsuit against the people who buy floodplain land and develop it at the expense of their neighbors. Problem is one person filing suit that benefits many other owners who don't pay. There is no association of neighboring owners to do the right thing.
In Illinois, at a minimum, any fill placed in the floodplain must be replaced at a 1:1 ratio and at the same hydraulic equal. In NE Illinois, it is 1.5:1.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on September 04, 2017, 10:35:24 PM
In Illinois, at a minimum, any fill placed in the floodplain must be replaced at a 1:1 ratio and at the same hydraulic equal. In NE Illinois, it is 1.5:1.
In layman's terms, are you saying that if you place fill-dirt in the floodplain that you must remove dirt elsewhere in the floodplain?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 05, 2017, 07:20:25 AM
Maybe if we pave Paradise, all that rain water will go somewhere else.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2017, 07:49:28 AM
In layman's terms, are you saying that if you place fill-dirt in the floodplain that you must remove dirt elsewhere in the floodplain?

If you fill, you must create new floodplain at the same elevation, which makes it hydraulically equivalent (to a point). Any fill between the 0-10 year flood must be replaced at the 0-10 year flood elevation. Any fill between the 10-100 year flood must be replaced at the 10-100 year flood elevation. That last one makes filling prohibitive (expensive). The 1.5:1 ratio in NE Illinois makes it even harder.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2017, 07:51:07 AM
As many here can likely guess, I'm opposed to a lot of government regulations.

Ones I am not opposed to are the ones related to life safety and health. I'm all in favor of regulating construction in floodplains and floodways.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 05, 2017, 04:22:12 PM
The problem I found with "regulations" on things like safety is that in the main they made no sense and caused us to keep a lot of paperwork and silliness that was simply not useful at all.  Some of the regulations are counter to other regulations, so you can't abide by one set without infracting another set.

The CFR is a nightmare I've had to try and wade through.  Even the folks from OSHA and EPA couldn't tell me what parts meant.  One guy spent hours on the phone back to DC trying to decipher a certain passage.  They finally said no one understood it.  It was supposedly something OSHA was trying to enforce.

Another one had the "<" clearly reversed and the EPA guy said he couldn't change it, and it meant we had to pollute MORE than we were polluting to be in the spec.  He just shrugged and said he saw this routinely.  He said he wouldn't write us up for a violation is we kept under the pollution level we were supposed to be at.  But he couldn't change it in the field.

Another part of the Lab Standard runs clearly afoul of EEOC standards.

Regulations are needed, yes, but they end up being masses of uninerpretable molasses.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 05, 2017, 04:26:11 PM
I'm delighted to be retired.  As I think back on things, I realize that any time our division got into any regulatory issue, the director would call me, and I was not in regulatory at all.

Apparently they thought I could read that morass of molasses.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 05, 2017, 04:43:26 PM
Oh, there are still problems. Like, when, say a Crook County requirement conflicts with an Illannoy requirement.

Crap like that happens a lot. I usually go with the higher governing body at that point.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2017, 12:29:38 PM
The Folly of Paying Americans to Live in Harm's Way

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-flood-hurricane-insurance-0908-20170904-story.html


Read it and wonder.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on September 08, 2017, 01:45:43 PM
I would be a good idea to stop selling flood insurance for flood prone property and stop bailing out those who choose to locate there anyway.  How would one define such a no insurance available flood prone area?   Just about anywhere but a hill top would flood if you get 30" of rain in 36 hrs.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on September 08, 2017, 02:26:32 PM
I know I'm correct. I do floodplain work for a living.

The entire Mississippi is constrained by levees. Start there.
I didn't realize that.  We're definitely in related fields.  I work for a large federal agency that builds dams and levees.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2017, 02:33:38 PM
Grrr...

I've spent my career trying to get them removed.

I'm a PE and a PLS. I'm also a CFM, for whatever that fluff credential is worth.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on September 08, 2017, 03:05:38 PM
Well, we don't build them much, anymore.  Mostly making sure the ones that are already there are safe.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 08, 2017, 03:32:13 PM
The safest dam is a removed dam.  :72:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on September 08, 2017, 04:19:46 PM
Badge absolutely HATES hydroelectricity!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on September 09, 2017, 10:38:55 AM
Badge absolutely HATES hydroelectricity!
The interesting thing is that most dams don't produce electricity (only 3% of them in the USA). I realize most of them were built 50+ years ago and probably aren't easy to retrofit, but I would think it's still cheaper than other sources of new generation.
Conversely, Canada gets 60% of its electricity from hydro power.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on September 19, 2017, 08:09:35 AM
Artic sea ice extent up 40% since 2012.

(https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Image1091_shadow.png)

https://realclimatescience.com/2017/09/40-sea-ice-ice-gain-over-the-past-five-years/ (https://realclimatescience.com/2017/09/40-sea-ice-ice-gain-over-the-past-five-years/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2017, 07:02:03 AM
I think every "large dam" has a hydroelectric power station associated with it in the US.    One can of course count dams and many of them will be rather on the small side.  Maybe there is one somewhere 100 feet tall or more without a power plant, but not many.

Dams on the Ohio River, for example, are for navigation, with locks, and they were maybe 50 feet high, and not enough reason to try and generate power from that.

Hydro is basically tapped out in the US today, with more dams disappearing for environmental reasons than being built (which is zero for larger dams).  The TVA area has a lot of dams of course, many built in part for flood control.  Any areas left where a dam might generate power are protected areas.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on September 20, 2017, 11:54:17 AM
Many of the dams on the Ohio do generate power, although their primary purpose is navigation.  There are actually several that are over 100 feet high that do not have hydropower.  These are mostly tall embankment dams, designed for flood control, that don't have much inflow during non-flood level events.  Several of those are also "dry dams", meaning they do not have a lake behind them except after heavy rain.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2017, 12:16:11 PM
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1059963923

Interesting.  It looks like four of them generate power, or will when outfitted with turbines.  Didn't know that.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on September 20, 2017, 01:56:41 PM
Hmmm, I thought most of them already did generate power.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on September 20, 2017, 02:46:24 PM
I've driven across the one at Greenup several times and looked for a power plant (signs of power lines etc.).  Nothing there.  Just a bridge and the dam and locks.

Having four produce a bit of power is a small something I think.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on September 21, 2017, 09:10:50 AM
I've not been to most of the dams on the Ohio.  I have been on many on the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers.  Nearly all of them have powerplants, I mistakenly thought power production on the larger dams was typical.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 17, 2017, 03:02:07 PM
DES MOINES, Iowa – (Sept. 21, 2017) – MidAmerican Energy Company is set to upgrade hundreds of its older wind turbines, bringing additional wind energy and cost savings to Iowa customers. The equipment upgrades will move MidAmerican Energy closer to its vision of providing renewable energy equal to 100% of its customers’ annual energy use.

MidAmerican Energy recently received approval from the Iowa Utilities Board for a plan that will allow the company to repower a portion of its older wind fleet to make the turbines more efficient and productive. The outcome is good for MidAmerican Energy’s customers and for Iowa. 

Under the plan, many of MidAmerican Energy’s older General Electric wind turbines will be retrofitted with newer, more efficient components, including longer blades, to extend the life of the turbines. These changes will increase the amount of clean, safe, affordable and reliable energy serving Iowa customers. 

“We’re excited to take this next step in our journey toward our 100% Renewable Energy Vision,” said Bill Fehrman, president and CEO of MidAmerican Energy. “Repowering our older wind turbines brings us closer to achieving that vision in a way that provides both economic and environmental benefits to our customers and the state of Iowa. In 2021 when both our repowering and Wind XI projects are complete, we expect to generate renewable energy equal to 95% of our Iowa retail customers’ annual use.”

Because energy generated from wind has no fuel costs, the repowering project will reduce the costs associated with generating electricity from other sources, which helps keep energy costs low and stable for MidAmerican Energy’s Iowa customers. With the extended life of the wind turbines, landowners at the repowering sites will continue to receive lease payments for a longer period and counties will receive tax revenue for an extended period. 

MidAmerican Energy has entered into definitive agreements with GE to complete the upgrades.

“We are delighted to work with MidAmerican Energy to repower their turbines,” said Pete McCabe, president and CEO, Onshore Wind, GE Renewable Energy. “Repowering is an affordable way to increase the efficiency and output of turbines, improving reliability and extending the life of the turbines through the evolution of and advancements in technology.”

Beginning in 2017, wind turbines will be repowered at the Century wind farm in Wright and Hamilton counties, the Victory wind farm in Crawford and Carroll counties, and the Intrepid wind farm in Buena Vista and Sac counties. Additional work sites and schedules will be announced at a later date.

As with the $3.6 billion, 2,000-megawatt Wind XI project announced in 2016, MidAmerican Energy is not asking for an increase in customer rates or for financial assistance from the state to pay for repowering. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 17, 2017, 03:08:00 PM
An interesting blog site for anyone wanting more reading on the topic in language more understandable than primary scientific journals.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/10/06/jc-interview-hurricanes-and-global-warming/ (https://scout.com/tu/MjI1MzAyM3RpbnkyNDc=)
I realize Curry is viewed by many as a "skeptic" etc. because she doesn't toe the line, but I find her blog to be both thoughtful and also provides references to other blogs and discussion sites that are clearly not skeptics.
Like many areas with technical complexity, this isn't a site you can read quickly and "prove" this or that, or even find compelling clear cut conclusions that might fit your internal biases. Most people, as noted, believe what they want to believe and simply seek confirmation for that while discounting anything contrary as irrelevant or flawed. This site isn't for them.
https://judithcurry.com/ (https://scout.com/tu/MjI1MzAyNHRpbnkyNDc=)
https://judithcurry.com/2017/06/04/paris-accord-qtiips/ (https://scout.com/tu/MjI1MzAyNXRpbnkyNDc=)#more-23104
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/aug/30/bjorn-lomborg-climate-change-profile (https://scout.com/tu/MjI1MzAyNnRpbnkyNDc=)

And yes, I am aware that Curry is labeled by some as a denier in the pockets of Big Oil, but her statements don't sound like that to me anyway.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 17, 2017, 10:19:01 PM
Iowa is one of the leading wind states (particularly per capita), as is Texas and most of the Great Plains states in between. It goes to show that renewables should not be a political issue. It's all about cost-effectiveness, and it's primarily natural gas (though increasingly wind & solar) that's killing coal and to a lesser extent nuclear. If you want to venture into the unmoderated board, I occasionally put my thoughts on the Electricity thread.

I recently got a new job at an ESCo (an energy services company, which are companies that finance energy efficiency upgrades and/or roof-top solar and other forms of on-site generation), and our biggest growth opportunity is with microgrids (buildings and campuses that can meet their energy needs independently of the grid), especially in the aftermath of the hurricanes in the past few months.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 06:11:35 AM
The figures clearly show NG has put the major dent in replacing coal over the past two decades (enabled by fracking interestingly enough).  I think wind is up to about 6% on the grid, not really that large a player, and solar on the grid is under 1%, so neither has really replaced coal significantly when it dropped from about 2/3rds to 1/3rd.

NG is a nice fuel source in part because the gas turbines can be started up quickly and produce power without the much longer time needed for coal or nuclear to go from cold to producing.  So, it is useful for meeting surge power demands.

Coal and nuclear are better suited to the constant background demand.

If wind is really competitive with NG etc., do we need any special government treatment of wind power?  Or will it happen on its own because of inherent advantages?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2017, 06:57:54 AM
Fracking is not a good thing.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 07:42:10 AM
Much of human activity is not a good thing environmentally.  We do those things because there are pros to go along with the cons.  It's a matter of balance.

I've watched corn fields here - which are not exactly good things - paved over to build Walmarts - not good things either.

Humanity is not going to "go back" and give up most of the pros just because there are environmental issues unless the latter is very clearly bad for many people (lead in gasoline for example).

One could argue that fracked NG that replaces coal might be on balance a "better thing".  One could also note the bird deaths associated with wind turbines and call that not a good thing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on October 18, 2017, 08:07:18 AM
I hate wind turbines.  They are butt ugly where they put them on top of hills, mountains and ridges.  I do not like the service roads that need to be built for them over otherwise pristine land.  Stick them off shore from Malibu, the Hamptons, Cape Cod and the like.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on October 18, 2017, 08:10:29 AM
Fracking is not a good thing.
Agreed.  Look at the frequency of earthquakes in Oklahoma before and after they started putting in injection wells.  The difference is striking.
(https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/byregion/oklahoma/OK-M3-July4-2017.gif)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on October 18, 2017, 08:11:16 AM
I hate wind turbines.  They are butt ugly where they put them on top of hills, mountains and ridges.  I do not like the service roads that need to be built for them over otherwise pristine land.  Stick them off shore from Malibu, the Hamptons, Cape Cod and the like.
Does a coal plant look better?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on October 18, 2017, 08:14:13 AM
No, no, no...not coal.  I envision everyone powering their homes with bicycle powered generators which would help with the obesity epidemic in the US. 

On a serious note, there are safer nuclear power reactor designs such as liquid sodium cooled reactors.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on October 18, 2017, 08:23:11 AM
I'm not against that.  I like the concept that France uses, numerous smaller nuclear plants, instead of massive one.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 08:33:53 AM
France has 58 nuclear power reactors.  They are roughly the same size as ours in output.

A key difference is that they reprocess spent fuel and the US cannot because of an executive order by Nixon, I think it was.

There are two new power reactors going in at the Vogtle plant in Georgia near Augusta.  They have had "issues" many relating to bankruptcy by the principle contractor.  There was a lot of concern earlier this year that the project would have to be abandoned partially completed.

https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060059449

https://southerncompany.mediaroom.com/2017-08-31-Georgia-Power-files-recommendation-to-complete-construction-of-Vogtle-nuclear-expansion

If you have not read anything about ITER, it may be of interest to some here:

https://www.iter.org/

I don't think anyone has a good guess as to when, if ever, that approach might come to fruition and generate usable power.  Soon, would be my preference, but not my expectation.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on October 18, 2017, 11:01:38 AM
It is quite a sight to come up over a slight incline on the otherwise flat I-65  (North of Lafayette) to see the dozens and dozens of wind turbines on the horizon (particularly at night with the red lights pulsating).
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 11:28:33 AM
I wonder how birds feel about it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2017, 12:00:24 PM
It is quite a sight to come up over a slight incline on the otherwise flat I-65  (North of Lafayette) to see the dozens and dozens of wind turbines on the horizon (particularly at night with the red lights pulsating).
I did all of the survey work and some of the engineering work on all of those.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2017, 12:01:35 PM
Agreed.  Look at the frequency of earthquakes in Oklahoma before and after they started putting in injection wells.  The difference is striking.
(https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/byregion/oklahoma/OK-M3-July4-2017.gif)
Exactly. And they want to do it in Southern Illinois. There is a fault line there... One of the deadliest quakes ever.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 12:06:29 PM
Some folks think more smaller earthquakes is better than one really bad quake.

There could be a benefit to this, possibly.  I recall some work decades back about injecting "lubricant" into fault lines so they would slip more gradually instead of building up and then breaking bad.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on October 18, 2017, 01:13:34 PM
It's not about lubricant, everything at those depths is generally saturated.  It's about pore pressurepushing apart cracks and reducing the amount of contact to pieces of rock have, thereby reducing friction.

I understand about the thought of smaller quakes relieving built up pressure.  In the case of Oklahoma, some of the quakes that have occurred after fracking began are just as strong as the strongest ones that recorded before, occasionally above 5.0.  In the New Madrid Fault zone, my scientists believe we are already overdue for a big one.  Fracking there might be the last straw that allows it to release.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 02:18:51 PM
I figure an agent that reduces friction might be called a lubricant.

At any rate, as you know, this notion about relieving pressure gradually is not well tested.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 18, 2017, 02:19:19 PM
I must note I am not an expert in tribology.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 19, 2017, 02:23:28 PM
It is quite a sight to come up over a slight incline on the otherwise flat I-65  (North of Lafayette) to see the dozens and dozens of wind turbines on the horizon (particularly at night with the red lights pulsating).
this occurs in Iowa obviously, but there are 100s
flying over in a small plane (10,000') at night with the red lights pulsating in unison is interesting
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on October 19, 2017, 03:43:16 PM
Yeah, I think the Meadow Lake wind farm has 330 turbines, and the Fowler Ridge windfarm has about 350 turbines.  Meadow Lake is on the east side of 65, and Fowler Ridge is on the west side.  they are fairly close to each other.   I know they are amongst the 15 or so largest in the country.  There's the one in Cali which is about 3 times the size based on capacity, and one in Texas that looks enormous from the skies.  I remember seeing a huge one from the sky in Oregon too.

If I recall the really big one in Iowa is in the NW part of the state.  I remember seeing it when flying out west this summer.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 19, 2017, 10:21:15 PM
The wind farm that you all are referencing near Purdue (which I passed to/from when Michigan played there a few weeks ago) is one of the largest in the country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fowler_Ridge_Wind_Farm

Wind turbines kill a very insignificant number of birds compared to skyscrapers, cats, rats, and other natural (and artifical) predators.

The best hope for nuclear is through smaller-scale plants. France's plants, unlike America's somehow have the ability to fluctuate their generation to an extent (I'm admittedly not sure how), so they're not just so-called baseload power (the DOE study on so-called baseload power to prop up coal and nuclear and the subsequent request to FERC for grid resilience is all BS....), where as gas plants have a great ability to fluctuate their generation to counteract the intermittent nature of wind and solar (and in the future, grid-balancing services will increasingly be done through energy storage and demand-side technologies, as well). I'm skeptical that small-scale nuclear will ever take off because other forms of dispatchable and distributed generation (namely CHP / cogeneration) are already more cost-effective, especially for universities, hospitals, and other campuses of sorts. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2017, 01:36:33 AM
Yeah, I think the Meadow Lake wind farm has 330 turbines, and the Fowler Ridge windfarm has about 350 turbines.  Meadow Lake is on the east side of 65, and Fowler Ridge is on the west side.  they are fairly close to each other.   I know they are amongst the 15 or so largest in the country.  There's the one in Cali which is about 3 times the size based on capacity, and one in Texas that looks enormous from the skies.  I remember seeing a huge one from the sky in Oregon too.

If I recall the really big one in Iowa is in the NW part of the state.  I remember seeing it when flying out west this summer.

That's the one we did.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2017, 07:05:34 AM
NG provides about a third of our grid electricity today, as does coal.  Nuclear is around 20%.  Hydro is what 8% or so?

The rest is kind of in the weeds, though wind is growing, 5-6%.

Hawaii historically, like most islands, used fuel oil to burn to make steam and electricity.  I would think they would benefit most by a wind/solar focus, but to date it has been rather limited.  I read they are trying to move in that direction but capital is scarce.

The place we visit in Hawaii when we go gets 3" of rain a year, usually in one day (I've been there on that day).  It is both consistently sunny and much of it is lava fields (from an 1860 flow).  There is very little solar around, a handful of wind turbines up in the mountains.  There is a Federal geothermal/magma research center there that has a few PVs outside.  I suspect that place is a boondoggle as geothermal has not seemed to make any progress that I can discern (I don't mean the heat pumps.).
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on October 20, 2017, 12:11:57 PM
NG provides about a third of our grid electricity today, as does coal.  Nuclear is around 20%.  Hydro is what 8% or so?

The rest is kind of in the weeds, though wind is growing, 5-6%.

Hawaii historically, like most islands, used fuel oil to burn to make steam and electricity.  I would think they would benefit most by a wind/solar focus, but to date it has been rather limited.  I read they are trying to move in that direction but capital is scarce.

The place we visit in Hawaii when we go gets 3" of rain a year, usually in one day (I've been there on that day).  It is both consistently sunny and much of it is lava fields (from an 1860 flow).  There is very little solar around, a handful of wind turbines up in the mountains.  There is a Federal geothermal/magma research center there that has a few PVs outside.  I suspect that place is a boondoggle as geothermal has not seemed to make any progress that I can discern (I don't mean the heat pumps.).
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=us_energy_home
(https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/images/charts/energy_consumption_by_source_large.jpg)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 20, 2017, 02:02:44 PM
That chart is for all energy sources, including transportation.  My figures were for the electricity production only, hence the grid comment.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 20, 2017, 06:41:03 PM
Hawaii has a 100% RPS by 2040. They are making a lot of progress towards that and will become a great case study not only for other islands and isolated locales (eg. rural Alaska), but distributed generation will gradually overtake utility-scale plants, thus reducing the importance of the transmission infrastructure.

Coal has no future and will continue to decline. Plants are closing due to economics, alone, which is why there are no new coal plants in most parts of the country. Gas will definitely continue to overtake it in the short-term, but eventually their growth will stagnate while wind and solar continue to grow. How soon this happens will largely depend on the volatility and overall direction of gas prices.... This legal case by Sunniva and Solarworld to impose tariffs on solar panels, could definitely be an issue, but only a short term one.

As for overall energy usage, electrification (as well as automation) of transportation and other sectors will result in the gradual decline of oil, as well. There's been too much production for awhile, which is what's causing the low prices and high inventories. That's not a viable long-term solution.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on October 21, 2017, 01:12:15 AM
I've not been to most of the dams on the Ohio.  I have been on many on the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers.  Nearly all of them have powerplants, I mistakenly thought power production on the larger dams was typical.
I am not an engineer. The Mississippi River dams do not generate hydroelectric. Articles I read say it would be inefficient. But can you explain why it would not be worthwhile to generate power from a dam? These dams in some instance are about a mile wide, and so quite a few turbines could turn.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on October 21, 2017, 01:18:01 AM
I'm not against that.  I like the concept that France uses, numerous smaller nuclear plants, instead of massive one.
I think we need a mix of power sources, including some nuclear. But, nuclear power has become uneconomic, and unless there are advances in that area I don't see it expanding as a percentage of our power supply.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on October 21, 2017, 01:20:32 AM
Over 35% of Iowa's power generation comes from wind. By 2020, that percentage should exceed 40%.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2017, 07:45:48 AM
I am not an engineer. The Mississippi River dams do not generate hydroelectric. Articles I read say it would be inefficient. But can you explain why it would not be worthwhile to generate power from a dam? These dams in some instance are about a mile wide, and so quite a few turbines could turn.


As I noted, four on the Ohio do generate power.  The amount of power obviously depends on the flow, which is substantial, and the "drop", which is not with dams made for navigation as their primary purpose.  You want a tall dam, like Hoover/Boulder or other dams out west for the "drop".  At some point, the cost of installing the turbines is not economical.
I don't think the Mississippi has many dams south of Minneapolis, but I have not checked.  The Ohio has them because the river can almost dry up in summer making navigation difficult or impossible.  The dams in the Appalachians (TVA) originally were designed for flood control as well as electrification.  Some were built WAY back by Alcoa in Maryville, TN to provide power for aluminum smelting.  Most of those have been acquired by the TVA in later years.  You can see some of them off US 129 (Tail of the Dragon) at times.  They are impressive in a way considering they were built by a company in ca. 1917.  Fontana Dam is the largest, tallest dam east of the Rockies, and was built in part to provide power to the Oakridge Manhattan bomb project.
It's over 400 feet high on a decent sized river and generates a good bit of power.  But adding more hydro these days by building more dams is not a likely option.  Folks do look at updating turbines and installing them on a few dams, but that's about it for hydro in the US.  The dams on the Ohio River are more in the 40-70 foot high range, equipped with locks for the barge traffic.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: nuwildcat on December 30, 2017, 06:53:06 PM
It's hella cold here in Chicago

- that is all ... carry on
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 30, 2017, 07:44:26 PM
It's hella cold here in Chicago

- that is all ... carry on
Uh, yeah. This f'ing sucks ass.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on December 30, 2017, 08:47:07 PM
A balmy 15 here in Cleveland.Better than the 116 they were perpetually having in the SW in summer.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: TyphonInc on December 30, 2017, 08:53:01 PM
I will still take 4 seasons over "death heat summers" down south.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2017, 10:12:57 AM
-11 here this AM, it has warmed up a bit with some bright sunshine
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on December 31, 2017, 11:15:33 AM
15 here in balmy Tulsa, OK.

Supposed to get down to 4 tonight, I think.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: LetsGoPeay on December 31, 2017, 12:14:01 PM
It's hella cold here in Chicago

- that is all ... carry on
We’re in town for New Years. We went walking around Michigan Avenue last night and it wasn’t too bad until it got to be about 7PM and we had to make the long walk back to our hotel. We had to duck into a couple stores because our fingertips hurt so much. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2017, 01:51:28 PM
Only supposed to get up to 69 here today...

Brrr...

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2017, 02:03:09 PM
We’re in town for New Years. We went walking around Michigan Avenue last night and it wasn’t too bad until it got to be about 7PM and we had to make the long walk back to our hotel. We had to duck into a couple stores because our fingertips hurt so much.
no pockets?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: LetsGoPeay on December 31, 2017, 02:49:28 PM
Gloves and pockets!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2017, 04:06:54 PM
Unless you're an outdoor worker or something like an ice fisherman or snowmobiler with all the right gear, nothing helps when it's this cold. There is no such thing as "tough guy" when it's like this.

I have to go out to the store. I'm dreading even doing that right now, but I'm going. Damn.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SuperMario on December 31, 2017, 04:11:35 PM
Unless you're an outdoor worker or something like an ice fisherman or snowmobiler with all the right gear, nothing helps when it's this cold. There is no such thing as "tough guy" when it's like this.

I have to go out to the store. I'm dreading even doing that right now, but I'm going. Damn.
Had to make a run to Costco to pick up some steak and it’s awful out. I simply don’t understand people that like this weather and have fun doing physical activities on this nonsense called snow.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 31, 2017, 04:17:53 PM
One of my fraternity brothers and closest friends ended up moving out to San Diego, and he got married about 14 months ago to a girl from here in SoCal. They are considering moving back to Indiana to be closer to his elderly mother [and for cost of living / quality of live / etc]. 

They're in Chicago right now for New Year's after a week or so in the Indianapolis area. 

I'm wondering whether this weather has cured their desire to move away. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2017, 05:20:22 PM
Had to make a run to Costco to pick up some steak and it’s awful out. I simply don’t understand people that like this weather and have fun doing physical activities on this nonsense called snow.
I'm so moving out of here it's not even a question anymore. The old bones just can't take it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on December 31, 2017, 05:27:33 PM
I have some friends in phoenix who used to send me pictures of them golfing in Dec or Jan.   This past year, I sent them pictures of me standing outside in July.  

Very few places are "ideal" year round, and you pay an arm and a leg to live there...   I'd rather put on a jacket than sweat through my shorts.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 31, 2017, 05:41:23 PM
Two homes is the ticket. Going to the Gulf Coast of Florida in March to get one to stay in for 6 months and one day out of every year.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2017, 09:49:41 PM
I have some friends in phoenix who used to send me pictures of them golfing in Dec or Jan.   This past year, I sent them pictures of me standing outside in July.  

Very few places are "ideal" year round, and you pay an arm and a leg to live there...   I'd rather put on a jacket than sweat through my shorts.  
I put on a jacket to shovel snow this morning at negative 9.  No sweat in my shorts
Going to Texas in 10 days to play golf if the weather cooperates
I'll send pics
it's currently -13, going to -20
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SuperMario on January 01, 2018, 12:52:36 AM
Two homes is the ticket. Going to the Gulf Coast of Florida in March to get one to stay in for 6 months and one day out of every year.
My neighbors are a few years retired. They have a summer/fall home here in Ohio and their winter/early spring home is in Naples, Fl. It’s my ideal situation. Ohio is beautiful in the summer, but I hate the cold.
My wife and I were huge travel bugs prior to the little person that runs around our house and the new bun in the oven and our lack of travel in the winters right now is killing me.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 01, 2018, 10:17:20 AM
plan to move south of NW Iowa when I retire

how far south, I don't know.  Maybe KAnsas, Lawrence, Topeka, Manhattan.  At least that far south.  Don't think they get to -20.

Maybe as far south as Austin, TX.  Just to bother Utee

I can always visit friends and family in NW Iowa in the heat of summer.  Free lodging

way too derned cold here overnight and this morning - pretty sure the heat pump didn't quit the past 12 hours or so
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 01, 2018, 01:20:59 PM
Flying home yesterday, San Diego was in the 70s. I had a layover in Dallas, where they were getting pelted with an ice storm. Then Columbus was just a frozen tundra. Hoth like. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on January 01, 2018, 09:39:42 PM
plan to move south of NW Iowa when I retire

how far south, I don't know.  Maybe KAnsas, Lawrence, Topeka, Manhattan.  At least that far south.  Don't think they get to -20.

Maybe as far south as Austin, TX.  Just to bother Utee

I can always visit friends and family in NW Iowa in the heat of summer.  Free lodging

way too derned cold here overnight and this morning - pretty sure the heat pump didn't quit the past 12 hours or so
You fargin bastage!
You know we ain't got no runzas down here, right?  You'd hate the place.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on January 02, 2018, 08:45:52 AM
It was -27 F in my local this AM.  If not for Global Warming it might have been as low as -27.2 F.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 02, 2018, 11:39:31 AM
I have some friends in phoenix who used to send me pictures of them golfing in Dec or Jan.   This past year, I sent them pictures of me standing outside in July.  

Very few places are "ideal" year round, and you pay an arm and a leg to live there...   I'd rather put on a jacket than sweat through my shorts.  
It is true, but there are some areas of California that are ideal year round and are rural enough that it's not quite an arm and a leg... Maybe just a leg lol. Place like Portland or Seattle as well will get "winter", but are close enough to the water that it's a very temperate winter. Granted, I wouldn't want to live in Seattle due to traffic, which sounds odd from someone currently in SoCal. But Seattle traffic is brutal. 
But there are a lot of places where it may not be ideal year round, but you don't hit the extremes of the upper Midwest in the winter nor of Phoenix/Vegas in the summer.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 02, 2018, 11:40:18 AM
You fargin bastage!
You know we ain't got no runzas down here, right?  You'd hate the place.
I'm quite fond of BoneDaddy's
might be visiting next week
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 04, 2018, 06:01:29 PM
Chicago looks to set a record this week for most days in a row without hitting 20 degrees.

The record was set in 1895.

I just heard that on the news. I wonder how many other records are falling out there, in places like Georgia and stuff.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 04, 2018, 07:49:23 PM
I was told all 50 states registered a temp below freezing the other day.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 05, 2018, 08:09:01 AM
Mercury is up to 3 deg already in NE Ohio
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CatsbyAZ on January 08, 2018, 05:52:41 PM
I have some friends in phoenix who used to send me pictures of them golfing in Dec or Jan.   This past year, I sent them pictures of me standing outside in July.  

Very few places are "ideal" year round, and you pay an arm and a leg to live there...   I'd rather put on a jacket than sweat through my shorts.  
I'll take the opposite end. I find sweating in the Arizona Sun purifying, especially once I've capped my day with a shower. It took two summers to get used to Phoenix heat but even before then I preferred a Phoenix July to my childhood memories of winters in Minnesota and Pennsylvania where your feet are numb ice all day and you fight with your siblings as to whose bed the dog and cat get to sleep in to keep you warm through the January night. That to me was far more miserable than the hallucinogenic heat of Las Vegas and Arizona.

And for those who counter with the adage "you can always put on more layers but you can't keep taking clothes off" I'll take sweating through basketball shorts and always needing sunglasses before going through those winters where when waiting for the school bus in the AM dark, it didn't matter how bundled I was - that Minnesota cold was tearing through every layer.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 09, 2018, 01:23:52 AM
You can all debate this if you want, but climate scientists strongly believe that the Midwest / Northeast polar vortex (or bomb cyclone or whatever you want to call it this year) are climate change related. Historically, the jet stream kept cold weather contained to Alaska and Northern Canada, but there's a strong argument that emissions in the Northeast / Midwest have broken the seal to allow it to bring it so far south. When Jacksonville is colder than Anchorage at any point in time (especially the winter), I think it's fairly obvious that something is wrong.

Fortunately, Rick Perry's plan to subsidize coal and nuclear plants got shut down by FERC (in fact, pretty much everyone including oil & gas companies, except for the coal and nuclear industries were against him for economic reasons alone, much less environmental ones)..... These BS proposed tariffs against solar panels should be rejected, too, with a final decision coming by the 26th, and even then the WTO has shut down similar situations in the past so Trump might not want to embarrass himself.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 09, 2018, 01:54:47 AM
 so Trump might not want to embarrass himself.
You really think this concerns him?
Global warming is an outdated term - climate change is more accurate.  The trend of warming is real, but it causes more radical cold weather as well....think "The Day After Tomorrow".  
Climate change threatens our weather (both cool and warm) from staying in a comfortable zone - the spikes and valleys of hot and freezing extending past what we find acceptable.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 09, 2018, 08:06:20 AM
 When Jacksonville is colder than Anchorage at any point in time (especially the winter), I think it's fairly obvious that something is wrong.
Well on the bright side this should be a boom for Big Ten recruiting
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 09, 2018, 02:31:12 PM
You can all debate this if you want, but climate scientists strongly believe that the Midwest / Northeast polar vortex (or bomb cyclone or whatever you want to call it this year) are climate change related. Historically, the jet stream kept cold weather contained to Alaska and Northern Canada, but there's a strong argument that emissions in the Northeast / Midwest have broken the seal to allow it to bring it so far south. When Jacksonville is colder than Anchorage at any point in time (especially the winter), I think it's fairly obvious that something is wrong.
Not trying to disagree here, but do you have any links describing this? I would like to read more about this hypothesis as I haven't heard it before.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 09, 2018, 03:47:22 PM
I'm always skeptical whenever I see "climate scientists" cited. A link would be good for me too.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 09, 2018, 09:45:07 PM
This is admittedly quite debatable, but here's a good article about it: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/climate/cold-climate-change.html
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: TyphonInc on January 09, 2018, 10:41:20 PM
It just snowed in the Sahara Desert. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 09, 2018, 11:20:18 PM
It's not a big stretch to think that changing atmospheric temps (as well as corresponding declines in ice mass in the arctic ocean and shifts in density-driven ocean currents) might affect the overall dynamics of the Rossby waves in the atmosphere (e.g. wave number, precession rate, amplitude) and in particular the relative locations (taken in aggregate over, say, weekly to seasonal timescales) of the polar jet stream.  There are a number of articles on this in the scientific literature in recent years, such as:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3136

(in particular look at the reference list in that article and you see the scientific community is really actively publishing findings in this area)

It's summarized in plainer English here:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dreaded-polar-vortex-may-be-shifting/

Here's another recent one:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1

A quick read of these suggests to me that, while there's nothing conclusive yet on this, there are some interesting observations here and potential for better understanding of these mechanisms with further research. 


 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on January 10, 2018, 07:51:55 AM
If you fill a soda bottle with carbon dioxide, cap it and set it in a dark closet how much will it's temperature rise?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2018, 08:14:42 AM
Well it rained here in Phoenix last night...I guess it's not in the desert anymore.  AmIright???

eyeroll
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on January 10, 2018, 09:10:14 AM
I just got the Carhartt coat I ordered, to wear when I go to construction sites.  Now we're going to have a high of 60 today.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2018, 10:28:06 AM
Climate change is real, and has been since the earth's formation. 

Short-term/daily/weekly drastic swings are real too, and have been happening since the earth's formation.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2018, 10:32:05 AM
I just got the Carhartt coat I ordered, to wear when I go to construction sites.  Now we're going to have a high of 60 today.
Right, and tomorrow it's forecast to be 54 here and then plummets. And on Saturday the forecast low is 5.

Don't get rid of the Carhartt just yet.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Geolion91 on January 10, 2018, 10:36:06 AM
No way, it's really warm, just too warm to wear it for a couple days.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 10, 2018, 10:52:01 AM
The Milwaukee Tool  heated jacket is the best for outdoor workers.    Must have for framers, electricians, plumbers, roofers, layers.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2018, 12:22:40 PM
This is admittedly quite debatable, but here's a good article about it: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/climate/cold-climate-change.html
Thanks. 
I just wanted to point out your statement: "climate scientists strongly believe that the Midwest / Northeast polar vortex (or bomb cyclone or whatever you want to call it this year) are climate change related"
Whereas the story was a bit more circumspect. The quotes from scientists were, as scientists tend to be, very carefully worded. I.e. 'we think there's something there, but we're not sure exactly what or how due to how complex the system is and thus it's an area of active research.' Scientists, like engineers, don't often like to make a forceful statement of conclusion until they really truly KNOW the whys and hows of the mechanism. Which is why it raised my initial question: when laymen translate that to an aggregate statement that "climate scientists strongly believe X" it makes me think that people are extrapolating WAY beyond what those scientists have actually claimed.
So I agree, I can easily see a plausible link between a warming arctic (due to emissions) and a change to the jet stream. And I'm not sure that you can nearly make a statement as specific as emissions in the Northeast/Midwest are responsible for the change in the jet stream to that part of the US. That might suggest that if those regions cut their emissions drastically, the problem will be solved. I think most climate scientists would consider the warming arctic to be a global phenomenon based upon rising CO2 concentrations over years/decades, which will tend to even out regardless of which continent actually emitted the CO2. But I agree with the basic theory of greenhouse gases causing temperature increases, and it would make sense that a warming arctic [which has been shown to be occurring via measurement] could shift things like the jet stream in ways we didn't fully predict.
Still, thanks. It was an interesting article and I appreciate the link.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on January 10, 2018, 02:29:42 PM
Climate change is real, and has been since the earth's formation.

Short-term/daily/weekly drastic swings are real too, and have been happening since the earth's formation.
Exactly! The Earths climate has been in a constant state of change since the Earth's formation. To say that it is now primarily due to man's existence, is to discount the previous eon's in which man had not effect yet the climate still changed. According to scientists, 100,000 years ago the spot which I am currently sitting, was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice. That would indicate a climate cold enough to support it. However, this past year, I remember green grass and trees with leaves with temperatures in the 80's and 90's. This is considerably different than the climate that must have been present 100,000 years ago. What caused that? Cave men driving SUV's?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 10, 2018, 03:52:42 PM
 According to scientists, 100,000 years ago the spot which I am currently sitting, was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice. That would indicate a climate cold enough to support it. However, this past year, I remember green grass and trees with leaves with temperatures in the 80's and 90's. This is considerably different than the climate that must have been present 100,000 years ago. What caused that? Cave men driving SUV's?
Mastodon Gas
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 10, 2018, 05:13:40 PM
Climate change is real, and has been since the earth's formation.

Short-term/daily/weekly drastic swings are real too, and have been happening since the earth's formation.
Exactly! The Earths climate has been in a constant state of change since the Earth's formation. To say that it is now primarily due to man's existence, is to discount the previous eon's in which man had not effect yet the climate still changed. According to scientists, 100,000 years ago the spot which I am currently sitting, was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice. That would indicate a climate cold enough to support it. However, this past year, I remember green grass and trees with leaves with temperatures in the 80's and 90's. This is considerably different than the climate that must have been present 100,000 years ago. What caused that? Cave men driving SUV's?
Yes, climate has been changing for all of Earth's history on its own. We get that.

That *DOES NOT* mean that anthropogenic climate change isn't real, or isn't damaging. And one can't claim that human effect is insignificant. We can do things to this planet that far outweigh the impact of any other animal due to our technology. After all, if Trump and Rocket Man decided to start lobbing nukes at each other and started a nuclear winter, would you say man has no effect? 

Climate is an extraordinarily complex system, but two aspects of climate change theory seem to be relatively well-established:


The earth has been in a warming cycle since the end of the little ice age, around 1850. CO2 concentrations didn't really start to take off until after 1950 or so. But coincident with that rapid increase in CO2 concentration, the warming trend seemed to accelerate. As a result, even most people who would be labeled "skeptics" as it relates to the climate change debate concede the above two points.

Just as when the other side denounces you for "denying science", to belittle the climate change alarmists with the caveat that it's cold outside today, or with the statement that climate has been changing for all of Earth's history, doesn't help. The question is whether humans are changing it NOW, and what will be the impact on modern life from that change?

And the answer is yes, humans are changing it now. We don't exactly know how much, as all we really have to rely on is computer models of climate [so far most alarmist models have generally over-predicted warming]. We also don't have very good ways to model the economic or lifestyle impacts at this time [the alarmists assume they must be terribly bad, but we don't know--many effects could possibly even be beneficial]. 

But ridiculing the other side doesn't advance the debate.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 10, 2018, 05:45:51 PM
We haven't had reliable measuring devices long enough in my opinion.

The eruption of one volcano could do more damage than humans have ever done.

That said, I do believe in emissions reduction. But I'm not gonna stop breathing.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 10, 2018, 11:19:41 PM
The sheer volume of people out there who act like the plural of anecdote is data hurts my brain.  FFS.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 10, 2018, 11:44:17 PM
bwarbiany - Fair point and totally agreed, both in regards to the skepticism of the extent of human impact but it exists to a point.

I look at it more from an economic perspective, anyway. I work in the energy & sustainability space, and various energy efficiency, energy management, and renewable energy technologies are all very economic in most parts of the country. Everyone in the energy sector knew that the DOE proposal to subsidize coal and nuclear was all BS, and there is a similar consensus on the proposed tariffs against solar panels (it's telling enough that BP and Shell are reinvesting in solar), which came about from two already-failing solar companies, Sunniva and SolarWorld, for reasons of their own doing. Supposedly there's a good chance that the WTO would turn it down, anyway, and/or there's enough production from unaffected countries in SE Asia and domestically that it won't matter too much.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 11, 2018, 11:06:32 AM
And I'm not sure that you can nearly make a statement as specific as emissions in the Northeast/Midwest are responsible for the change in the jet stream to that part of the US. That might suggest that if those regions cut their emissions drastically, the problem will be solved. I think most climate scientists would consider the warming arctic to be a global phenomenon based upon rising CO2 concentrations over years/decades, which will tend to even out regardless of which continent actually emitted the CO2.
Right.  CO2 as well several other ghg’s are well mixed and fairly uniformly distributed in the troposphere, and have residence times (=mass/flux) that exceed annual time scales and can even be as long as century time scales.  
That helps explain why localized changes in emissions will not have localized effects.  It’s the same reason that you can’t sustain a water quality improvement effort in the bay of a lake (unless you disconnect that area entirely); as soon as you do the overwhelming mass and prevailing water quality of the rest of the lake will simply mix in and you’re back to where you started.

There have been significant improvements in other air quality problem areas and so they can provide some guidance, but yet they’re fundamentally different.  For example you could examine either the reduction of acid rain and the reduction of CFCs.  Both are at least partial success stories. Both of those had different properties however - acid rain contaminants (NOx and SOx) have short residence times (mainly because they rain out) and more localized sources (particularly SOx).  CFCs are more uniformly mixed but have a limited number of sources that can be more easily controlled.

In contrast CO2, CH4, N2O are more ubiquitous in terms of sources and have those long residence times in the atmosphere that make them hard to reduce and in need of a global scale response.  Localized efforts won’t get it done.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2018, 12:36:46 PM
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.physicalgeography.net%2Ffundamentals%2Fimages%2Fco2_atmosphere.jpg&hash=3ef1262d0a4a62e5781037ccd4a2e8b0)

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/World_population_v3.svg/481px-World_population_v3.svg.png)



Anyone care to comment on the similarity of the curves, 1800-present?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 11, 2018, 02:37:22 PM
I look at it more from an economic perspective, anyway. I work in the energy & sustainability space, and various energy efficiency, energy management, and renewable energy technologies are all very economic in most parts of the country. 
It might surprise you to know that a few years ago when the construction industry was in shambles and there was a proposed gov't program humorously called "cash for caulkers", I [as a pretty fervent libertarian] actually thought it was a really good targeted economic stimulus package. It had all of the following positive elements:
1) Many people don't live in their houses long enough for energy efficiency improvements to pay for themselves, and energy efficiency is not heavily valued in the home resale market enough to recoup investment upon sale. Thus, the net aggregate spending on energy efficiency is lower than would make sense if people stayed in a house long-term, making it a perfect opportunity for a subsidy.
2) Homes are durable goods, so the life cycle of many energy efficiency improvements is very long-term.
3) At the time, the people hardest hit by the recession were those in the construction/building trades. This would have been a great targeted way to get those people some work while the housing crisis worked itself through. 
Lack of energy efficiency is a negative externality caused by high retrofit costs and a long payback horizon. If there was ever a reason to suggest that gov't subsidy might actually make sense, this is a perfect example. 
Instead, the gov't decided to throw money into "cash for clunkers", destroying assets which increased the sale price of older used cars [thus hurting the low-income] in order to prop up the auto industry so that the people who weren't impacted by the recession could buy shiny new vehicles. Stupidity.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 11, 2018, 03:04:27 PM
Cash for clunkers.. just The Guv propping up one of the industries it bailed out...
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 12, 2018, 06:40:41 PM
I'm not a scientist or an engineer, although I have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.

I'm a historian.  But for two years, I taught physical geography and military geography at West Point.  In the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering.

I was in the geography "group" within the department, but also interacted with the environmental engineers and the mapping, charting, and geodesy instructors.  This was in the mid-'90s, and AGW/AGCG was not a big deal.  We were closer in time to the "Global Cooling" scare of the late '70s than we were to to today's concerns.

But I remember a couple of things from that experience that seem to have significance today.  One was that the atmosphere does not act like a greenhouse.  So "greenhouse gasses" is really a misnomer.  Of course, it's just a label, and we use misleading labels all the time.  I don't see any harm to it in this case.  But the second was that CO2 is maybe the least "greenhouse gas-ish" of all the "greenhouse gasses."  It just doesn't trap heat very well.

Am I mis-remembering this?  Or were my engineering colleagues mistaken about CO2?

I addition, I have seen long time-span charts that showed times when CO2 levels were significantly higher than now and temps were significantly lower, and vice-versa.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 12, 2018, 07:31:43 PM
That is all valid CDub. The "studies" that are currently underway and those that have been published over the past 10 years or so are influenced by those who fund them.

It would be really nice if people would set things aside and do some of their own research. 

Yes, the climate is changes. Always has, and always will.

We are going to have a cold, wet winter - La Nina. That is caused by cooling in the Pacific Ocean. Cooling in an ocean. Not warming. Cooling.

People want to cite the shrinking ice caps, but when the ice caps grow, and they do in any given year, you hear... crickets.


Dropping the "agenda" would be a good thing. This country and many others are more environmentally conscious than ever.

We need to bring our focus elsewhere - like uniting our people. Otherwise, you might have another Civil War to study.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 13, 2018, 10:57:14 AM
just returned from Texas

it's much warmer there

and it's about 5-10 degrees warmer in Austin than Dallas - better for playing golf in shorts

let's ALL move there
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2018, 01:38:24 PM
Dropping the "agenda" would be a good thing. This country and many others are more environmentally conscious than ever.
I do agree with this. Global warming has become a sign of political affiliation, not scientific belief. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 13, 2018, 02:11:44 PM
For the most part, that statement is highly accurate. Simple minds and all that.

(That is not an indictment of this place, mind you. Just a general observation.)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2018, 03:10:11 PM
just returned from Texas

it's much warmer there
 Beautiful day in SoCal... It's nice to take the Jeep out without needing to put the top up, any time during the year. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2018, 03:14:19 PM
For the most part, that statement is highly accurate. Simple minds and all that.

(That is not an indictment of this place, mind you. Just a general observation.)
Agreed. The level of discourse here is miles ahead of a lot of other forums [incl. the Area 51 board here lol].
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2018, 03:18:39 PM
Never gets old...

(https://scontent-sjc3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/1522869_10152179779680329_358375176_o.png?oh=bfeacc60fb5fc9a7266df1d33dfde678&oe=5AEE1FDA)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on January 13, 2018, 04:51:26 PM
It might surprise you to know that a few years ago when the construction industry was in shambles and there was a proposed gov't program humorously called "cash for caulkers", I [as a pretty fervent libertarian] actually thought it was a really good targeted economic stimulus package. It had all of the following positive elements:
1) Many people don't live in their houses long enough for energy efficiency improvements to pay for themselves, and energy efficiency is not heavily valued in the home resale market enough to recoup investment upon sale. Thus, the net aggregate spending on energy efficiency is lower than would make sense if people stayed in a house long-term, making it a perfect opportunity for a subsidy.
2) Homes are durable goods, so the life cycle of many energy efficiency improvements is very long-term.
3) At the time, the people hardest hit by the recession were those in the construction/building trades. This would have been a great targeted way to get those people some work while the housing crisis worked itself through.
Lack of energy efficiency is a negative externality caused by high retrofit costs and a long payback horizon. If there was ever a reason to suggest that gov't subsidy might actually make sense, this is a perfect example.
Instead, the gov't decided to throw money into "cash for clunkers", destroying assets which increased the sale price of older used cars [thus hurting the low-income] in order to prop up the auto industry so that the people who weren't impacted by the recession could buy shiny new vehicles. Stupidity.
This is why energy efficiency incentive programs exist and many companies like the one I work for offer financing options, as well. The non-residential sectors (commercial, industrial, governmental, non-profits) are also the major focus of these programs and the companies involved in them, though residential programs exist, too. To your point, improving building codes in the first place is incredibly important, too.
On a tangential note, GM just announced that they're ready to manufacture autonomous vehicles to deploy next year (as I understand it, they will own them all), starting in San Francisco and Phoenix, unsurprisingly, where they've already been tested. It will be interesting to follow how quickly they are adopted and what happens. Eventually, car ownership will likely be obsolete except perhaps in very remote areas.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 13, 2018, 05:12:59 PM

But I remember a couple of things from that experience that seem to have significance today.  One was that the atmosphere does not act like a greenhouse.  So "greenhouse gasses" is really a misnomer.  Of course, it's just a label, and we use misleading labels all the time.  I don't see any harm to it in this case.  But the second was that CO2 is maybe the least "greenhouse gas-ish" of all the "greenhouse gasses."  It just doesn't trap heat very well.


I think the greenhouse analogy is pretty apt.  CO2 absorbs in the infrared band quite prominently.  This is easily measured and well known.  It is invisible in the visible band (duh).  So, light from the sun comes in and generates heat when it is absorbed by something.  That heat normally radiates back out into space and infrared radiation (IR).  If you "trap" the heat with glass, or CO2, or methane, or something, it doesn't radiate outward as much, and thus is trapped in a greenhouse type affair.

None of this is in dispute.  Without the 280 ppm CO2 we had in the atmosphere, the climate would be quite a bit cooler than it is.  Increasing that to 400 ppm has a pretty easily measured impact on heat retained, and this is less than a tenth of a degree Celsius (°C).  The larger impact is a result of what are called forcing factors, things that happen as a result of slight changes that spiral out of control and amplify the impact.  One simple example is a change in albedo as ice melts.  The planet becomes less reflective and thus warmer.  Another is if permafrost melts and releases a high level of methane trapped there now.

CO2 is not the most effective of the greenhouse gases, but it is by far the most prominent in concentration.  The levels of gases like methane and NOx in the atmosphere are much much lower, Beer's Law and all that come into play.

The models attempt to estimate the impact of those "forcing factors" to make a projection, and this is done by back fitting them to known data in the last.  One problem is that global mean temperature is very difficult to measure.

And all this complexity and more really gets absorbed into the political landscape.  There are very few liberals who don't believe this is an issue and vice versa.  People BELIEVE the way they believe because of their politics, not their scientific acumen.  

My personal best assessment is that it is a serious problem but probably not as serious as it has been hyped by folks like Gore, who I think have done a disservice to the discussion, AND, importantly, there is VERY little we can do practicably to affect this issue.  I don't see a viable real solution, or even significant mitigation possibility.  You can run around yelling wind and solar but that doesn't make it happen, and it won't happen beyond an inconsequential amount.  The best hope might be controlled fusion power, but heaven knows when that may arrive, if ever.


Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 13, 2018, 05:43:07 PM
That is all valid CDub. The "studies" that are currently underway and those that have been published over the past 10 years or so are influenced by those who fund them.

It would be really nice if people would set things aside and do some of their own research.
What in the world are you talking about?  As a practicing member of the scientific community, who has received my share of grant funding and published several dozen peer-reviewed articles, I've never once had that funding or publishing those papers contingent on adhering to anyone's "agenda".
Scientists are the real skeptics.  We actually do the investigations and push back against whatever the latest conventional thinking is, rather than just talk about it (like some so-called climate skeptics who like to be in the news but do scant little actual research).  We do not personally profit from this research.  Funding is extremely hard to get and is getting ever more difficult.  And we are catlike contrarian creatures who pick at and claw away at each other's findings, probing for weaknesses and looking for stronger patterns and explanations than currently exist.  That's how we're trained to think and act, and we embrace the hunt.  Question authority.  Question conventional thinking.  Question everything.
Politicians and mediots do have agendas and they take our findings and mangle them to prove their own points, etc.  They do this because the lazy public want binary yes/no black/white type outcomes, because they can't deal with uncertainty or probabilistic prognostications (unless they're buying life insurance) and they don't understand that science is a process of discovery, not an encyclopedia of information. 
There's not much we can do about this, because scientific literacy in this country is so piss poor.  And frankly I don't blame anyone but the ignorant themselves for being ignorant.  It's an outcome of a lazy, instant gratification, please tell me the answer so I don't have to think society.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 13, 2018, 07:21:27 PM
just returned from Texas

it's much warmer there

and it's about 5-10 degrees warmer in Austin than Dallas - better for playing golf in shorts

let's ALL move there
Dilly-dilly,maybe not looking forward to ice fishing
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on January 13, 2018, 08:23:32 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjmtSkl53h4
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2018, 08:02:50 AM
I have a passion for automobiles, and I think the autonomous vehicle thing is a major shift in the horizon in how we transport ourselves.  Horizon probably means late 2020's, obviously in a gradual sense.  I can see a time about then when certain freeway lanes will be reserved for self driving vehicles.  Many of us many opt not to own a car, but use an Uber like service entirely, or most of the time.  You schedule a car to pick you up and take you to work each morning, no parking hassles etc.

Cars on intercity routes might travel in long strings drafting the car ahead of them with a 1 foot separation traveling at perhaps 120 mph.  Each car would see what every other car sees.  This could be a significant option versus intercity high speed rail, and much cheaper.   

The EV thing is going to come fast also, though if the CAFE standards are relaxed, that will slow.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2018, 08:13:37 AM
What in the world are you talking about?  As a practicing member of the scientific community, who has received my share of grant funding and published several dozen peer-reviewed articles, I've never once had that funding or publishing those papers contingent on adhering to anyone's "agenda". 
You're one of the good ones Cuz.

But we knew that.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2018, 08:24:44 AM
I know our grant proposals would start out something like "Compound X is thought to treat cancer".  An NIH grant proposal would have some kind of link to cancer usually.  In reality, it was just a pure research kind of thing.  Nothing we did have squat to do with cancer.



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 14, 2018, 08:35:25 AM
Cousin Fred has a pretty solid synopsis consistent with my experience as well.  Scientists love little better than to find the flaw in another's argument.  It is a very antagonistic environment, by design.  I never quite adjusted to the way things were done in large companies where doing this was basically a no-no, you were supposed to sit and nod and not embarrass anyone there.  I had the misfortune of having a first boss who loved this challenging atmosphere but later bosses did not at all.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2018, 09:19:40 AM
Never gets old...

(https://scontent-sjc3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/1522869_10152179779680329_358375176_o.png?oh=bfeacc60fb5fc9a7266df1d33dfde678&oe=5AEE1FDA)
I let slip "F" bombs much more than I'd like
when the temp dips below -20 I simply refer to it as "stupid" cold
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 14, 2018, 09:20:50 AM
Dilly-dilly,maybe not looking forward to ice fishing
was surprised to see Okies walking on the ice a week back
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 16, 2018, 07:00:16 PM
Quote
CincyDawg:

I think the greenhouse analogy is pretty apt.  CO2 absorbs in the infrared band quite prominently.  This is easily measured and well known.  It is invisible in the visible band (duh).  So, light from the sun comes in and generates heat when it is absorbed by something.  That heat normally radiates back out into space and infrared radiation (IR).  If you "trap" the heat with glass, or CO2, or methane, or something, it doesn't radiate outward as much, and thus is trapped in a greenhouse type affair.
The explanation that the science guys in D/G&EnE gave me about real greenhouses is that they do not operate primarily through the glass trapping IR radiation but by physically keeping the warmed air from moving away.



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 16, 2018, 07:03:13 PM
was surprised to see Okies walking on the ice a week back
At least one of them--a retired doctor, I think, and a member of the U.S. 1956 Olympic ice-skating team--fell through the ice and died.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 16, 2018, 07:35:23 PM
that's not good

ice is dangerous, even for experienced northerners

I prefer it thick and solid enough to drive on with a pickup
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 16, 2018, 08:28:52 PM
The explanation that the science guys in D/G&EnE gave me about real greenhouses is that they do not operate primarily through the glass trapping IR radiation but by physically keeping the warmed air from moving away.

Well, I strongly disagree.  Nothing inside a greenhouse generates any heat.  Same with your car.  The glass traps heat inside because it is preventing IR from radiating outward.

Strongly disagree.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse




Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on January 17, 2018, 08:47:11 AM
Meteor over Detroit metro last night registered as a 2.0, and lit up the sky.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rare-meteor-credited-bright-light-rattling-noise-over-michigan-n838311
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on January 17, 2018, 09:25:39 AM
The one meteorologist said the mercury over Cleveland registered 0 last nite.Getting up to 21 today - good times starting to climb out of the Artic Vortex
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on January 17, 2018, 09:58:11 AM
warming up in Iowa 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 17, 2018, 06:48:23 PM
We registered a balmy 1 degree Fahrenheit in Tulsa early this morning.  Warmed up to a sizzling high of 30.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 17, 2018, 07:05:56 PM
Quote
Cincydawg:

Well, I strongly disagree.  Nothing inside a greenhouse generates any heat.  Same with your car.  The glass traps heat inside because it is preventing IR from radiating outward.

Strongly disagree.
If nothing inside the greenhouse were generating any heat, then there would be no heat to trap.  Same with my car.  In the greenhouse, the ground and other solid objects inside are being heated by solar radiation and re-radiating IR as heat.  In my car, it's the materials of the interior.

The point is that it's the mechanical action of the glass keeping the warmed air from escaping via convection--not the IR-blocking action of the glass--that is largely responsible for keeping the heat inside the greenhouse.

There is not much of an analogy to that in the atmosphere.  But linear terrain features like mountain ranges can prevent heat-transfer via convection, which is somewhat analogous to the walls of the greenhouse.  Of course, the greenhouse has a ceiling too.  A temperature inversion can work like one in the  natural world.

At least according to Col. John H. Grubbs, Ph.D.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 17, 2018, 07:56:58 PM
If you look about halfway down this wiki page

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect

You'll see the talk about real greenhouses and how they work. 

I don't think anyone is confused on this issue.  The greenhouse effect has always been analogy, not a literal description of the process.  It's just the idea that some gases absorb heat and thus stop IR from radiating away, and if we put a higher concentration of those gases in the troposphere, we'll retain more heat in the troposphere.  Pretty basic physics. 

Clouds do this too (where the main gas in this case is water vapor).  Anyone who has been in the desert at night knows how cold it can get on a clear night, as there's nothing to keep the IR close to the surface of the earth. 

There's nothing magic or mysterious or contentious about this.  It's just how it works.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 17, 2018, 08:25:53 PM
Exactly.

Per the article on the Font of All Wisdom and Knowledge: "'Greenhouse effect' is actually a misnomer since heating in the usual greenhouse is due to the reduction of convection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convection),[32] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect#cite_note-32) while the "greenhouse effect" works by preventing absorbed heat from leaving the structure through radiative transfer (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_transfer)."

As I said in my original post on this thread, "greenhouse effect" is a misnomer, but we live with many other misnomers, so it doesn't really matter.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 17, 2018, 08:42:24 PM
You mean like "Big Game Bob" :o
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on January 17, 2018, 11:13:53 PM
You mean like "Big Game Bob" :o
Hmmmm.
I was thinking more like ".44 Magnum," which describes a handgun round with a bullet diameter of .429.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on January 17, 2018, 11:41:34 PM
And the 2 X 4, which is really 1.5 x 3.5
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CousinFreddie on January 18, 2018, 03:52:27 AM
And describing emotional states as “matters of the heart”, when the heart is just a muscle in your chest, and emotions etc actually reside in the brain.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 08:11:27 AM
Glass inhibits radiative reemission of heat.  So does CO2.  Same mechanism.  

While nothing inside the greenhouse generates heat, the light from the sun obviously does, same with your static car.

This is more than just trapping heat by a simple barrier.  It reduces heat radiation while allowing the light to enter.  Light hits something and it absorbed and that is reradiated as IR (heat radiation).

I see it as a very close analogy.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 08:15:19 AM
https://climatekids.nasa.gov/greenhouse-effect/

https://www.readingma.gov/climate-advisory-committee/faq/what-are-the-greenhouse-effect-and-greenhouse-gases

http://berkeleysciencereview.com/greenhouse-gases-versus-glass-greenhouses/

The last citation, which is probably most authoritative, is in disagreement with my contentions here, so perhaps I am wrong, learn something every few years.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 08:17:06 AM
" Robert W. Wood’s experiment was unreplicated until 2009, when Stanford Professor Vaughan R. Pratt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaughan_Pratt) put it to the test using very thorough internal controls and modern technology. Dr. Pratt failed to reproduce Wood’s work: he found that the box with the glass cover (greenhouse analog that trapped infrared light) was several degrees warmer than the one with the salt lid (the one that did not block any infrared light) (http://clim8.stanford.edu/WoodExpt/). Specifically, Pratt observed that the glass box, or greenhouse simulator, was between 1 to 6 °C (1.8 to 10.8°F) hotter than the box with the salt cover, depending on the placement of the thermometers within the box. Thus, in contrast to Wood, Professor Pratt did demonstrate that there is a small contribution from trapped infrared light even in physical greenhouses."

On the other hand, this is from that last citation.  This should be simple stuff really.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 08:40:37 AM
So, I reread that last article I cited, and find it confusing, but the experimental evidence suggests my point is correct.  We do know that glass doesn't allow IR to pass freely, just as CO2 doesn't allow IR to pass freely.  I'm going to hold with the analogy as being apt.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 08:44:51 AM
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/grnhse.html

That is another usually credible source also.  I think the confusion may be because a glass greenhouse does BOTH, it prevents convection, which is not analogous to the atmosphere, and also prevents radiation of IR.  So, perhaps this is the point here, an actual glass greenhouse retains heat in part due to preventing convection, which is certainly true, and in part prevents IR from escaping as readily.  So, it isn't a pure analogy.

I know we used salt plates when running IR scans with the same on said salt plates.  The salt was transparent in the IR while glass is not.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on January 18, 2018, 12:19:11 PM
Clouds do this too (where the main gas in this case is water vapor).  Anyone who has been in the desert at night knows how cold it can get on a clear night, as there's nothing to keep the IR close to the surface of the earth.  
Is that the mechanism? I thought it was more due to the desert being arid. Water vapor has a much higher specific heat than air, so it holds the thermal energy it picked up during the day, and carries it longer into the night. Dry areas don't have a lot of water vapor, so the air temperature changes much more quickly than it does in more humid climates.
That was my understanding, anyway. It would be interesting to know if that's incorrect.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2018, 01:02:12 PM
Clear nights always allow lower temperature no matter whether it is in desert or elsewhere.  Clouds keep the heat in, so to speak because they are opaque and diffract EM radiation like IR.  If it's clear, the IR radiates back into space readily, so you have a larger difference between daytime high and nighttime low.

An arid region is going to be clear more often for obvious reasons.  Evaporation of water does exert a cooling effect obviously and that is another factor.  That could be more important in nonarid regions where there is more to evaporate, but then the RH is higher there also.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on February 09, 2018, 12:56:42 PM
Grab your flak jacket and head for Mexico, it's Maunder Minimum II


http://www.ibtimes.co.in/scientists-warn-unusually-cold-sun-will-we-face-another-ice-age-759865 (http://www.ibtimes.co.in/scientists-warn-unusually-cold-sun-will-we-face-another-ice-age-759865)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2018, 02:17:52 PM
"scientists" have been sending warnings of all types for centuries

they are a lot like the local weatherman on the 6 o'clock news - horribly inaccurate
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 09, 2018, 03:36:07 PM
"scientists" have been sending warnings of all types for centuries

they are a lot like the local weatherman on the 6 o'clock news - horribly inaccurate
Not really true or fair. Very few people ever hear what "scientists" say. What they warn us about is generally a game of telephone between their original study, the PR firm hyping the study with a bombastic press release for the journal which published it to gain attention, the J-school grad who misreads the press release and is incapable of understanding the source material anyway but has to get clicks. And then the people who share/promote it through social media etc are doing it through confirmation bias and political agenda instead of actual scientific knowledge.
As I've said, WHENEVER you see stories like this, go to source material if you can. What you'll usually see is that the research by the scientist themselves is quite narrow and measured, and doesn't under any circumstances sound as dire and terrible as what the news article makes it out to be. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2018, 04:41:31 PM
Very true, and scientists write in a particular "style" that is often obscured in the translation into the popular media.

If you ever pick up a copy of Nature or Science and run across a paper on climate, you likely will find it obscure in its terminology, and I've never seen one ever claim "climate change is real".  They deal with one variable in one climate model and perhaps a variation on that in the main, or suggest another variable may need considering.  And those two journals are very top line high order things that generally feature only papers of a very high order.

This reminds me of a story from my work days.  Our director was determined to move us from a large upstream facility in the company to a very downstream location some 15 miles away.  I complained that we would be losing significant library assets, which was true, so he threw me a bone, some space, and $25,000 for journals important to our group.  Well, OK I guess, not the same, but better than nothing (stuff was not on line back then).  So, I order some journals, one of which was about $2500 a year as I recall, and put through the POs and the director's admin called me up and said "$2500 for MAGAZINES!!!!!".  She was livid, truly.  We ended up with a semi-decent library which no one but me ever used and later was thrown out to the trash when my career moved elsewhere.

I thought they should at least have burned them.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 09, 2018, 05:09:07 PM
Compare the language in Temp430's link: http://www.ibtimes.co.in/scientists-warn-unusually-cold-sun-will-we-face-another-ice-age-759865

With the language in the UCSD News Center [the scientists in question were from UCSD]: https://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/pressrelease/reduced_energy_from_the_sun_might_occur_by_mid_century

Then compare that the scientists who wrote this study weren't apparently making ANY claims about climate. The study was called "Ultraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs"

Obviously this is important to climate, but in this quote, you can see that Lubin is NOT making climate claims, but providing data that may be of use to those who model climate and include solar radiation in their models.

“Now we have a benchmark from which we can perform better climate model simulations,” Lubin said. “We can therefore have a better idea of how changes in solar UV radiation affect climate change.”

Basically all they were looking as was how the fluctuation cycles worked. 

Then the IB Times starts throwing out "another ice age" fear-mongering, which didn't really come from anything in this study.

But hey, since nobody is actually going to read the above, hope you all enjoy your ice age. ;-)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on February 09, 2018, 05:14:40 PM
..... it reminds me of Norm at the end of the bar explaining complex circumstances in what he has decided is an authoritarian tone and language... Or the Home Improvement guy trying to repeat what the guy on the other side of the fence explained to him...

the economy of climate change isn't to be ignored, though, and that is what it's all about.  hell, it may be better described as a religion at this point... maybe even is theology described as a 'way to live' akin to Islam's directives and adherence.  

and then, there is this- which strikes the nail firmly on the head as far as the political aspect:

https://www.facebook.com/DankTrumpMeme/videos/1849914161897744/

which satisfies my sense of humor to watch- and does a better job of demonstrating the divide than I ever could, especially in the beginning.

all the while, there is something going on with the environment whether man made or not (as if we've cured the planet of ice ages? - said in jest- ) but i do know that bull shit walks and money talks.... and the entire thing whiffs of manipulation- which really irks me... if there is truth it stands on its own, if it stands on its own it's properly supported, if it's properly supported there is no need for 'call to emotion'.  

funny enough, i don't claim to understand much of the scientific data and how it relates to things i can observe myself, but....... most those who adhere to this strange religion/theology claim they do... in conversations with these folks, who ultimately get angry and start throwing insults- i usually find i understand it at least better than they do.  If i had the time i would love to study the facts and research their validity from all vantages, but this thing makes that hard before you encounter an extremist of some flavor or another.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 09, 2018, 05:28:49 PM
The vast majority of people with opinions on climate change derived those opinions from their politics, not their understanding of the science, even at a very basic level.  IMHO, Gore made this political (among others, but he did it first) and people who dislike Gore for political reasons now dislike his message, and it was adopted by others as a means to subvert any real steps taken to deal with the possible issue.

Also IMHO, it's too late to do anything substantive here that is practicable.  This is why we don't see actual plans anywhere, even in outline form, as in "Here is how we're going to replace the fossil fuel usage with alternatives over time, here is about what it will cost, and here is the projected impact on the climate change variable according to the models".

What is being discussed by climate change activists is trimming a few tenths of a degree from the predicted rise of 2-7°C.  Yay.  And eve n achieving THAT looks improbable and expensive to me.

It could also be that some massive change in technology comes faster than expected and renders things like wind and solar afterthoughts useful only in isolated areas far from distributed power.  That of course is not very likely though there is some decent progress being made now.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on February 09, 2018, 06:57:29 PM
Not really true or fair. Very few people ever hear what "scientists" say. What they warn us about is generally a game of telephone between their original study, the PR firm hyping the study with a bombastic press release for the journal which published it to gain attention, the J-school grad who misreads the press release and is incapable of understanding the source material anyway but has to get clicks. And then the people who share/promote it through social media etc are doing it through confirmation bias and political agenda instead of actual scientific knowledge.
As I've said, WHENEVER you see stories like this, go to source material if you can. What you'll usually see is that the research by the scientist themselves is quite narrow and measured, and doesn't under any circumstances sound as dire and terrible as what the news article makes it out to be.
sorry, that is why I put scientists in quotes
wasn't intended to dis science or true scientists
but, long before the internet or social media.  About 1975 when I was in Jr High, in science class we were taught that another "ice age" was coming from the use of fossil fuels
not long after we were told the earth was in grave danger of burning up because aerosol cans used Chlorofluorocarbons as propellants, but since the Montreal Protocol came into force in 1989, they have been replaced in nearly every country due to the negative effects CFCs have on Earth's ozone layer
I guess we will never know for sure if the ozone layer would have survived, but some folks certainly benefited monetarily from the transition.
yes, the folks that put out these articles are hacks much like the bitter drinken sportswriters that take quotes from a coach or player or administrator out of context to create something to grab fan's attention. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 10, 2018, 06:08:37 AM
The feared "ice age" in the 1970s never gained any real traction in the scientific community.  It was more speculation than anything with solid data behind it, and was based on orbital cycles over long periods (Malinkovitch Cycles, if I spelled that right).  There is also some speculation about solar radiation cycles, which of course are real, and how they may have contributed to the "Little Ice Age" circa 1550-1850, which may not have been global but regional.

The ice age thing made the cover of Time which made it seem as if many climate scientists were behind it.

I think we are in the process of "running the experiment" with CO2 and in 25 years or so we should have pretty solid data on the impact of 450 ppm in the atmosphere and how that impacts climate, for better or worse.  Any notion we can control this trend is not realistic in my view.  We might dent is a little.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2018, 01:08:04 PM
62 degrees in town today. Of course, it's gonna be in the 20's tomorrow morning, but this is pretty wild stuff.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on February 20, 2018, 01:42:12 PM
It's 74 today in Pittsburgh.  We got 3 inches of snow 2 days ago.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 20, 2018, 01:46:07 PM
And you will probably get 3" of snow in 2 days.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on February 20, 2018, 01:59:40 PM
The dew point is at 60 today.   To me that's more of an outlier than the possible record high temp today.    Going to make me really focus on getting the tree/shrub pruning done, despite Badge's truth, that it will likely snow this next week.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 21, 2018, 11:05:19 AM
It was down in the low 30s here yesterday morning... 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 21, 2018, 01:49:39 PM
Our 10 day forecast has only one low as low as freezing, in February.

This is unusual.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on February 21, 2018, 02:09:21 PM
I'm jealous.

The long range here is for a below average March, April and May. I don't like that.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 17, 2018, 04:13:58 PM
This below-average crap is starting to get really old, but I guess I should be happy I don't live in New England.

There has not been one day in March that the average has been hit here. That should change tomorrow - for one day. Then it's right back to the same crap.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 17, 2018, 04:17:48 PM
Tulips and others are starting to push up.  Time to do some pruning tomorrow on the rose bushes, etc.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 17, 2018, 05:45:52 PM
I'm jealous.

The long range here is for a below average March, April and May. I don't like that.
golf course might not open until April!!!!!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2018, 02:25:19 AM
Marc Morano's new book "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change" (Regnery Publishing) is just in time to refute the argument that "climate change" will destroy all life on Earth. It is a mark of Morano's dark humor that he features as an "endorsement" of the book a comment by the liberal Daily Kos, which calls Morano "evil personified."

The book is a point-by-point takedown of the predictions of disaster made by the climate change movement, none of which have materialized, but when one is part of a cult, facts don't matter.

In the book's foreword, the late John Coleman, who was a meteorologist, TV weatherman and co-founder of The Weather Channel, writes: "We meteorologists are well aware of how limited our ability is to predict the weather. Our predictions become dramatically less reliable as they extend into the future. When we try to predict just a few weeks into the future our predictions become increasingly inaccurate. Yet the 'climate change' establishment that now dominates the UN bureaucracy and our own government science establishment claim that they can predict the temperature of the Earth decades into the future."
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2018, 08:36:30 AM
I remember watching Ol' John as a kid and beyond. Great personality.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2018, 09:53:09 AM
While our ability to predict WEATHER is obviously dubious and testable, our ability to predict CLIMATE is not remotely the same thing.  It is possible we have tools to predict long term climate changes while being unable to predict weather 10-50 days out.

I also think the hype machine by folks like Gore have "muddied the waters" and turned this into a partisan issue rather than a technical one.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2018, 09:54:17 AM
As for changing my own climate, we just signed a contract for a condo in Atlanta.  The weather there last week was cool but warming and spring had sprung.  We came back to freezing rain and clearly winter residues.

I wonder if it gets hot in summer down there?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2018, 10:11:43 AM
I also think the hype machine by folks like Gore have "muddied the waters" and turned this into a partisan issue rather than a technical one.
CDawg: Winning the internet since Al Gore invented it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 18, 2018, 10:35:31 AM
golf course might not open until April!!!!!
The Horror,hey move down to Austin,utee would be mre than happy to have you
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 18, 2018, 10:54:29 AM
shoot, visited Texas twice in the past couple months.......

crap weather

and talk about horror!?!?!?!

the course in Arlington only allowed a 2 beer maximum per side!!!

straight up told the manager he was encouraging old fat guys to hide a six pack in the bottom of my golf bag

looking into Kansas as a retirement destination
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2018, 09:10:59 AM
Dammit, Tom.

7-day forecast: Easter in the 30s, rainy week ahead

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.trbimg.com%2Fimg-53e8e9e9%2Fturbine%2Fchi-tom-skilling-20140531%2F210%2F210x210&hash=3590d012fa2e6393c79aa91258c75c62)Tom Skilling (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/weather/chi-tom-skilling-20140531-staff.html#nt=byline)Contact ReporterAsk Tom
 

Saturday's brief influx of 60-degree air will likely be our mildest period for the next 10 days. Highs on Sunday will struggle to reach the upper 30s, a level about 15 degrees below the normal for April 1.
Forecasts have been consistent in maintaining a pool of cold air over Hudson Bay that will act to keep polar air flowing across the Great Lakes and the Northeast.
Guidance suggests temperatures through April 10 will average 12 to 15 degrees below normal. Snow is also possible during the period. April averages 1.2 inches of snow, with measurable accumulations having occurred in 59 percent of Aprils since 1885.
Some forecasts suggest that a period of snow may sweep across the area Thursday night in association with a new surge of cold air. This latest cold pattern is expected to ease heading into mid-month.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2018, 09:23:02 AM
April fools joke, right?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 01, 2018, 08:16:46 PM
Snow?  In April???

Global warming in full effect.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2018, 10:58:17 PM
in Austin?!?!?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 02, 2018, 08:26:42 AM
At least one snow per month from October to April. 

Lame. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2018, 09:08:33 AM
This below-average pattern is expected to continue through the month of May.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2018, 09:18:29 AM
We received a light snow last night.  Maybe an inch, no road issues.

"Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on April 02, 2018, 09:24:51 AM
For the first time in a long time (going solely off recollection), Phoenix made it to the month of April without breaking 90 degrees.

It's been quite pleasant here the past few weeks for sure.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 02, 2018, 09:36:43 AM
Today is a pretty normal Opening Day in Milwaukee.  It might be low 40s, some Sun not too much, and I'm sure the wind will get up at some point during the tailgate.   
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2018, 09:37:01 AM
Climate is ever-changing.

Weather can be predicted.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2018, 03:37:32 PM
I haven't heard from anyone that can successfully predict the weather here in NW Iowa
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2018, 04:17:40 PM
High of 28 and low of 15 predicted for this Friday. I'll let you know how that comes out.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2018, 06:43:41 PM
High of 29 and low of 19 predicted for this Friday on Weather Underground dot com. The locals bent on hyperbole I refuse to acknowledge.   I'll let you know how that comes out.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on April 02, 2018, 07:03:22 PM
meanwhile, spring has sprung on the mid atlantic coast... which makes me unpopular in this discussion, but not near as unpopular as saying:  I'd like to see a few more weeks of cold and snow up in the upper wisconsin area- my ski rental is doing well this year- and a few more weeks makes me happier than not.... 

i think it was four years ago i drove up to Iron county on the fifth/sixth of July... windows open in clean upland air- no noise pollution- i went to sleep with the windows open...... and it dropped to 34 degrees that night... WTF???? the next week highs were hardly out of the sixties- and i had on sleeves and a jacket more than not while everyone around me was dressed like some tropical island... i'd live up there if i could, but not in the winter.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2018, 07:13:39 PM
Well, they just had a foot of snow North of Madison and it's not gonna warm up much. You should be happy.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on April 02, 2018, 07:29:46 PM
i'm booked through the end of the month.... and have been.. the 'problem' is when it's warm and the slope clears, and folks want refunds..... which i don't mind issuing don't get me wrong... but i'd obviously rather keep it or work a deal out with them for the following season.  

i really want to get up there for deer season one year... 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 02, 2018, 09:15:34 PM
Our pool still hasn't made it above 70.  Last year during Spring Break we were swimming, this year it's two weeks later and we still haven't been in.  Darn good thing we have the hot tub!

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 11:15:37 AM
Our pool still hasn't made it above 70.  Last year during Spring Break we were swimming, this year it's two weeks later and we still haven't been in.  Darn good thing we have the hot tub!


Is 70*F your minimum threshold? You southerners have different tolerances than I'm used to. ;- )

Growing up, we'd be swimming in the St. Clair River (GL waterway) by May. The water temps usually hadn't passed 45-50*F by then. Perfect for cooling off after street hockey...or wheelbarrowing slag.

I think it's a lot warmer now though. I read that Lake Huron's surface *average* had gotten to around 69/70 the last two summers, which is 10-15 points warmer than the avg surface temperatures I recall as a kid.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2018, 11:24:50 AM
Average of 69/70?

Hasn't really changed over the past 20 years.

The trend lately has been downward.

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/avg-sst.php?lk=g&yr=2017

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 12:27:36 PM
I interpret that data differently. What matters most for summer surface averages are two variables: the peak height is one part. And (at or about 21*C) that's consistent with what I was saying about ~70*F average surface temperatures in the two recent summers. The other part, is the breadth of that peak. How many days does the daily average stay at or above 16/17/18/19/20*C?
To me, it's inconclusive from this data set whether the peaks temperatures are changing. Though the years with Huron record highs are similar to each other, there might be a changing pattern among years whose "highs" are abnormally low. E.g., of the first ten full years at your link, three (1997, 2000, 2004) failed to hit 20*C. Of the last 10 years posted, only one (2014) failed to hit that mark. But this is a small sample size and I'm happy to recommend we draw no conclusions or trends from it. Still it does deserve at least those two sentences.
The most meaningful difference about 2017, which I'm guessing was the biggest contributor to the "record total summer average" I read in the news regards its graph shape. It peaks as a broad plateau, more broad than any other in the data set. The 2017 curve rises above 18*C and stays there 2 to 7 weeks longer than any other curve. And I suppose that's the detail you shared that is most consistent with my off-hand remark: that 2017 was an outlier.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 12:47:06 PM
I guess we have two conversations going, then. One is whether 2017 was an outlier. The other is whether it was a 10+ point outlier from my youth. We should drop the second point. Because I was swimming in river water, so even though the Huron was its direct source, comparing the surface temps of relatively mixed water to relatively unmixed water was not reasonable. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2018, 12:58:54 PM
The lakes have generally been colder, which is reflected in catching (or not) salmon.

They like 54 degree water and the past 5 or so years they have been fairly shallow throughout Lake Michigan (generally a little warmer than Huron, even though they are the same water body).

100 feet or less of water is now the norm, where in years past it was not uncommon to have to fish in 2-300 feet of water to find that 54 degree temp.

Surface water is subject to many variables. Is it sunny? Has it rained a lot? What are the wind conditions, current patterns, and so on.

The past few years before last have generally been colder on the surface, mostly due to prolonged ice coverage (which also helped against evaporation).

Regardless, the surface temp last year, according to my own measurements, never got above 68 degrees outside of the Kenosha, WI harbor mouth. We had a lot of West winds last year, and those tend to push the warmer water to the other side of the pond.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 03, 2018, 01:40:22 PM
Is 70*F your minimum threshold? You southerners have different tolerances than I'm used to. ;- )

Growing up, we'd be swimming in the St. Clair River (GL waterway) by May. The water temps usually hadn't passed 45-50*F by then. Perfect for cooling off after street hockey...or wheelbarrowing slag.

I think it's a lot warmer now though. I read that Lake Huron's surface *average* had gotten to around 69/70 the last two summers, which is 10-15 points warmer than the avg surface temperatures I recall as a kid.
Sure, why not, 70 can be a minimum threshold.  Since it typically has us swimming in mid-March, it works pretty well.  Waiting until May to swim in 45 degree water sounds... well... terrible.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2018, 01:48:25 PM
45 is too cool for me

causes shrinkage
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 04:35:04 PM
45 is too cool for me

causes shrinkage
As problems go, shrinkage doesn't make my list. I'm a big fan of the iciness. I'm into extended snowy camping, though that's not really about being cold; it's about being so prepared that you aren't. A better example might be polar plunges. I think those are good fun. One time, in Iceland, the wife and I visited a remote spa that let us leap back and forth from natural thermal pools and a lake filled with glacial meltwater and calved icebergs. Unforgettable.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2018, 05:00:28 PM
don't know if I could actually mentally prepare myself for the polar plunge

now alcohol..........

physically, there's gonna be some shrinkage - regardless of preparation
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 03, 2018, 05:20:29 PM
Yeah, dipping in cold water for no reason is a bit daffy. People who do it might like that others think so. As a kid though, jumping in was generally about being overheated playing sports or doing yard work for the folks. Anyone who's ever enjoyed a well timed cold shower can relate. As for winter camping at 10*F with the right equipment, I think any outdoorsy person would love it. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2018, 06:57:32 PM
I spent my youth enjoying outdoor winter activities.  Always enjoyed them despite the cold.  Camping, skiing (downhill in Colorado), ice fishing, hunting, trapping, hockey, sledding, snowmobiling, backyard football in 4 buckle overshoes.

Huge fan of Bud Grant, dress properly and stay active, no problem.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 03, 2018, 07:35:20 PM
I like my outdoor activities to involve being on top of water, with an air temperature of at least 70.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 03, 2018, 07:56:38 PM
I agree, but I wasn't lucky enough to be born in Austin, TX like Utee
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2018, 09:35:46 AM
Here is my succinct opinion about climate change variables:

1.  CO2 levels have been rising due to fossil fuel combustion.  This is a simple fact.  Isotopic analysis shows most of the additional CO2 is from fossil fuels.  
2.  CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  This also is a fact.  The IR spectrum of CO2 shows this to be the case.
3.  More greenhouse gases in the atmosphere COULD result in less radiative cooling, also a fact.  At some point, the effect can be saturated and more doesn't mean higher Ts.  We're not there yet.
4.  The pure effect of this can be calculated, as a single variable, reliably, and is a couple tenths of a °C by 2100.  E.g., the specific primary effect is pretty small.
5.  There are however many secondary effects which is what climate folks try and model, forcing factors, like when ice melts the albedo decreases leading to more heating.  This is very tricky and complex stuff and I'm not sure anyone has it right, but it is reasonable that the heating impact is greater than what is in Item 4 above.  
6.  If one accepts the IPCC estimates, the heating range will be 2-7°C by 2100, the upper limits of that being pretty catastrophic if it happens.  There is some chance it is "misoverestimated" and will be more like 1°C which would be "OK".
7.  There isn't much we can do to stop this technically.  This is the hard reality of the story.  A massive and expensive shift to nuclear power would have some impact, but isn't happening.  Wind and solar will remain in the margins when you look at how much electricity we derived from fossil fuels globally.  The rate of CO2 generation is going to continue to rise whether we sign agreements or not.

The one far out hope would be power from nuclear fusion that would be a game changer, but we "I" have no idea when that might become reality.  Perhaps in 30 years fusion power could start to replace current power sources, optimistically.  The current ITER experiment is somewhat promising, but there would be a lot of work even if they are successful.



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2018, 10:48:12 AM
I just signed up with a client to provide design services for 5 solar farms in Illinois. Yay for us.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2018, 12:42:00 PM
does each of the 5 farms have at least 1,000 windmills?

100,000 would be better obviously
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 04, 2018, 12:48:00 PM
new record low here in Sewer City this morning

old record low was 15 set in 2002 - this morning the temp dropped to 9 degrees

old record high of 90 was set in 1929 - probably what killed the dinosaurs 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 04, 2018, 03:05:59 PM
Here is my succinct opinion about climate change variables:

1.  CO2 levels have been rising due to fossil fuel combustion.  This is a simple fact.  Isotopic analysis shows most of the additional CO2 is from fossil fuels.  
2.  CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  This also is a fact.  The IR spectrum of CO2 shows this to be the case.
3.  More greenhouse gases in the atmosphere COULD result in less radiative cooling, also a fact.  At some point, the effect can be saturated and more doesn't mean higher Ts.  We're not there yet.
4.  The pure effect of this can be calculated, as a single variable, reliably, and is a couple tenths of a °C by 2100.  E.g., the specific primary effect is pretty small.
5.  There are however many secondary effects which is what climate folks try and model, forcing factors, like when ice melts the albedo decreases leading to more heating.  This is very tricky and complex stuff and I'm not sure anyone has it right, but it is reasonable that the heating impact is greater than what is in Item 4 above.  
6.  If one accepts the IPCC estimates, the heating range will be 2-7°C by 2100, the upper limits of that being pretty catastrophic if it happens.  There is some chance it is "misoverestimated" and will be more like 1°C which would be "OK".
7.  There isn't much we can do to stop this technically.  This is the hard reality of the story.  A massive and expensive shift to nuclear power would have some impact, but isn't happening.  Wind and solar will remain in the margins when you look at how much electricity we derived from fossil fuels globally.  The rate of CO2 generation is going to continue to rise whether we sign agreements or not.

The one far out hope would be power from nuclear fusion that would be a game changer, but we "I" have no idea when that might become reality.  Perhaps in 30 years fusion power could start to replace current power sources, optimistically.  The current ITER experiment is somewhat promising, but there would be a lot of work even if they are successful.

Doing the lord's work there, and I just plain agree -- among the better summaries I've seen. My only point of contention, and it isn't really full-on, has to do with item number 7. You don't explicitly state that it's hopeless, but the spirit there does welcome that counterargument -- that there's not much we can do, "So why try?" 

To which I always like to emphasize that being a good steward of the planet isn't just for tree huggers at Burning Man, it's for well-intending citizens and grandparents of every kind. From that perspective, the production of greenhouse gases isn't the only way we taint things. The same driving forces have volatilized the constituents of smog in several major cities, which appear to measurably lower human lifespan. And though not directly related, insufficient stewardship of a different kind has also facilitated a growing island of floating plastic the size of Texas in Pacific. And that's still without mentioning contamination (be it from hydrocarbons, heavy metals, radionuclides, etc.) of our limited groundwater, fisheries, lakes and so on. 

We can do a lot better, and until we start to brush up against those realistic limits of "try," we definitely should.

Then again, in my experience, getting people to agree on this value of stewardship is not hard. The hardest parts are (1) depoliticizing it so that real talking is possible and (2) being humble/patient enough that the listener doesn't get turned away by chest thumping about "my facts" and authority. 

When it comes down to it, that disconnect is the case for most controversial scientific conversations of our time -- also including evolution, stem cell therapies, vaccines and so on. Too many people with the most persuasive evidence available end up delivering it in a terribly arrogant and absolute way. I don't mean that as finger-pointing either. I know there've been many times when I've been at my wits end trying to convey scientific information (trying the right way) to an online audience but failed and wrote it all wrong. 

Because those behaviors (humility, patience) that these discussions need most are two of the hardest behaviors to consistently exhibit.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 04, 2018, 03:20:20 PM
new record low here in Sewer City this morning

old record low was 15 set in 2002 - this morning the temp dropped to 9 degrees

old record high of 90 was set in 1929 - probably what killed the dinosaurs
Illinois has never seen an April chill like this.
When the mercury dropped below zero early Monday morning, it broke records for a low temperature in Illinois for the month of April.
Meteorologist Chuck Schaffer with the National Weather Service’s Lincoln, IL station was one that saw the record chill.

My sister-in-law was just in Beijing with my nieces and nephew.  There are pictures of them on book face wearing breathing masks because the air is so terrible there. They took pictures of the "sky" and you cannot see the sun, clouds or blue. They left China early and are now in Bali.

Scientists need to take a look over that way, methinks. We are generally doing our part, here on our soil. And who the F knows what Russia is up to.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 04, 2018, 10:01:59 PM
When I look realistically at the practicable means of lowering CO2 emissions enough to matter, I don't see anything.

It's really simple math.  Folks say "wind and solar" as if that is some panacea.  It isn't, the math does not lie.  We need something HUGE to replace coal and NG.  Much larger than anything wind and solar can do any time soon.  Wind in the US is about 6% of the grid.  Yay.  Great.  NG and coal are 11 times that.  Eleven times that.

Maybe fusion will save the day, but I think it is likely too far out.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 04, 2018, 10:24:32 PM
I'm not big on a cure-all either. Maybe fusion won't arrive "in time." 

But I am big on trying. And maybe is *more* than anyone needs to make the choice to try. That sentiment is not restricted to fusion, either.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2018, 06:33:44 AM
I'm sure folks are going to try, but they should be realistic about what trying can accomplish, a small dent, maybe.  

If the world community had started i say 1990 in a serious fashion perhaps trying would have done more than a small dent.  Instead folks had meetings and signed useless agreements while China was opening a new coal fired station every week.  There also is a kind of momentum in the climate where even if the world went to zero carbon TODAY we'd still see warming if the models are right, and quite a bit of it.  China has agreed to do something starting in 2030, yay.

Wind, solar, and hydro might make a slight dent in all of this, but those things alone are not growing nearly fast enough to do more than "try".  I think we should put some effort into managing things like rising sea levels as well as "trying" to make it all somewhat less of an impact.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2018, 10:17:28 AM
China is the elephant in the room here fellas. Lots of people live there. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 05, 2018, 11:44:54 AM
China is the elephant in the room here fellas. Lots of people live there.
No doubt. They've been more short-sighted than most and it's a major problem for all of us. At the same time, emphasizing that part and getting bogged down in who owes what and "I'll never pay unless you pay your full share, at the exact same time, now go" puts us in a prisoner's dilemma situation where every actor/state, from the perspective of being ledger conscious, is best served by (using P.D. vernacular here) the inaction/betrayal choice rather than cooperation/acquiescence option.

That isn't the same thing as naively saying that stewardship should be disconnected from economics. We have to care about the bottom line if only because ignoring it is clearly inconsistent with human nature. Instead, I'm just saying that the economic costs of poor stewardship are intense enough that we should make the investments no matter what. In modest ways, we already are. But our leaders still fight about doing more (or anything at all). Yet doing more is both the best option morally *and*, if you consider the next few generations' of economic costs for inaction now, fully worth the investment in dollars and cents.

It may not be possible to overstate the downsides, e.g., of desertification on world hunger or the impact of rising seas on the world's largest populations. There's probably no cost that could be paid from a budget now that is greater in magnitude. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 05, 2018, 12:20:12 PM
we're doomed
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on April 05, 2018, 01:44:23 PM
Have not seen any robins yet in my area this spring.  Usually see the first by the second week of March.  Wherever they overwinter I'm guessing they likely expired from excessive heat.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2018, 02:06:28 PM
More snow here in the offing tomorrow night.  It's not cold, but snow here this late is unusual.  But that's weather, not climate.  

Humans generally don't do a great job doing statistics in their heads.  The media of course contribute to this by highlighting whatever gains eyeballs and make it appear to be something major when statistically it may be a minor or random or rare event.  

A long time ago, I had an "engine out" even in a plane with one engine in Indiana, and the Dayton news stations sent two crews out.  Their eleven o'clock news led with "Excitement in the skies over Indiana!".  And yes, it was exciting for me and my passenger, but we landed fine in soy bean field, no injuries, no damage to anything.  But I guess they had nothing else to lead and get one's attention to see what happened.  

Had there been a fire or car accident or burglary of note they would have led with that, and viewers get impressions this sort of thing happens "all the time".  The media rarely report something that indeed happens all the time.

Not a big fan of most media outlets, frankly, though I do enjoy NPR most of the time.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 05, 2018, 02:45:29 PM
we're doomed
You? Almost certainly not. But if you have kids who'll have kids and so on, then there's a good chance. Anyway, for anyone who has ever camped and found the principle of "Leave No Trace" worth teaching and following, the story is here is barely different.

Even if CO2 emissions are too controversial a topic for us to connect and we have to move the goalposts to discuss smog, oil spills, deforestation, or Texas-sized Pacific islands of plastic, there's no denying that we are leaving a trace and that trace is metaphorical garbage.

All of this falls under the umbrella of stewardship.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 09:09:42 AM
Seven plus billion humans will do that.  We can preach stewardship, but what I see is reality.

Think about shopping carts at a store.  They end up all over the place, sometimes blocks away, because humans are too lazy (some of us) to move them a few feet to the corral.  Convenience for one may be inconvenience for others, and the one may just not care.

Walmart is the worst for this obviously.

The current bottled water craze is another example.  We managed to live for centuries with only expensive bottled water and now everyone lugs out cases of the stuff to drink and discard the bottle.

Most humans will choose convenience, ease, and cheap over something slightly more demanding that is more stewardly.

Human nature.  And don't get me started on fructose.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 09:12:09 AM
Think about SUVs.  When I had kids, I had two minivans.  Yes, they weren't cool, but they got better mpgs than any SUV of similar capacity, and had sliding doors to boot.  But, people want "cool", something that is a quasi-truck cool, but really is a poor excuse for a minivan.  Unless you tow, a minivan is far better than an SUV, and cheaper to boot.

Europe is more practical in part because they are less wealthy in the main, so you see almost no SUVs and pickup trucks.  They have smaller minivans and work vans, usually with Diesel engines and manual gear boxes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 09:27:21 AM
My twins were in NROTC at Ohio State.  They cleaned up the stadium after football games to earn money for the program.  They had some interesting stories about what they came across cleaning the place, not pretty at all, and an indication as to how humans despoil even places they "revere".

I used to get really mad seeing litter and trash spread around, it still annoys me, but I just pick it up if I can.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2018, 10:02:00 AM
I work really hard to not have to go to Walmart*. I don't like what it's become and I don't like the vibe. The shopping cart example is just one of many things that drives me nuts about that place.


* I DO go there once a year, to pick up the supplies I need for my boat. Head treatment, potable water treatment, antifreeze, stabile, etc. I go at 7AM before the masses show up in droves.

Mine is always the first shopping cart in the corral. Maybe the last too, but I'll never know.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2018, 10:05:57 AM
Europe is practical for a lot of reasons. They walk a lot and the train system is fantastic. I saw a lot of cars by familiar makers that I've never seen here. Yes, they were smaller.

Not a whole lot of bottled water over there either, except for American tourists, in my observation. I did notice a lot of people had their own bottles that they could fill and carry. I did find Italy to be very dry, so wherever we went to eat or get a caffeine boost, we always asked for water.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2018, 11:29:36 AM
Think about SUVs.  When I had kids, I had two minivans.  Yes, they weren't cool, but they got better mpgs than any SUV of similar capacity, and had sliding doors to boot.  But, people want "cool", something that is a quasi-truck cool, but really is a poor excuse for a minivan.  Unless you tow, a minivan is far better than an SUV, and cheaper to boot.

Europe is more practical in part because they are less wealthy in the main, so you see almost no SUVs and pickup trucks.  They have smaller minivans and work vans, usually with Diesel engines and manual gear boxes.
Well, the SUV craze isn't what it used to be. These days, people buy "crossovers", which are basically minivans without the sliding doors and "soccer mom" vibe. Most/many are on car chassis instead of truck chassis, FWD, and at least not horrible for gas mileage. 

I also think that Europe have smaller vehicles because EVERYTHING is much more compact. Walking around Rome/Florence/Paris over the last few weeks, I can't imagine driving my Ford Flex around there. Even worse to try to find a parking spot anywhere. 

I would say that I was already aware that manual transmissions were the norm in Europe, but I was surprised how far it extended. In Rome they only have Uber Black (no UberX) so we once got picked up by a luxury Mercedes van, and of course it had a manual. Pretty much everything I saw there was a manual.

Europe is practical for a lot of reasons. They walk a lot and the train system is fantastic. I saw a lot of cars by familiar makers that I've never seen here. Yes, they were smaller.

Not a whole lot of bottled water over there either, except for American tourists, in my observation. I did notice a lot of people had their own bottles that they could fill and carry. I did find Italy to be very dry, so wherever we went to eat or get a caffeine boost, we always asked for water.
I wonder how it is outside the cities, though? I mean, in downtown Chicago/New York people also walk a lot and use public transit, but once you get outside the metro area it becomes MUCH harder to do so because population density falls off quickly. 

I would agree about all the makes and models of cars, though. It was funny actually trying to get an Uber and it tells me the car coming to pick me up is a Seat, or a Renault, or a Peugeot. I had no idea what the heck I was even looking for!

Agreed on the water, except that I actually saw quite a lot of bottled water at the restaurants. It seemed normal there to buy a bottle of water for the table (even still water, not the sparkling). 

Water must be precious in Italy, in fact, because it seems impossible to get more than 3 oz of coffee at a time!  :57:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 03:07:03 PM
We stayed four nights in Evian, home of the bottled water, and it of course spelled backwards is naive.

We did not do the "tour" there, but it's a nice town (so is Nice).  

Automatic transmissions these days are usually more efficient, and faster, than the manuals, except for underpowered cars, which describes most of what you get in Europe.

One thing you see rarely is a Japanese or Korean car in France, very rarely.  German and French and the odd Italian Fiat 500.  

In the smaller cities that lack subways or trains or buses, people still walk a lot because the towns are small and host a lot of people in a small area.  We stay in Fontainebleau quite often for various reasons.  They have buses and  trains that run to Paris and Lyon etc. but no subway.  We stay at a friend's guest house that is 3-4 blocks from the downtown area and we walk unless we go to the other side of town when we drive.  Some good friends live in a very small village and they walk to the stores, usually, but a trip to Carrefour or whatever means driving.  

And of course in Paris etc. you see a TON of scooters that can park almost anywhere.  Some of them have tandem tires on the front which is a bit odd looking.  I think they are limited to 50 ccs and they pollute like crazy.

The European cities have discovered they have air pollution issues because 30 years ago they shifted to Diesels to minimize CO2 emissions and thus maximized other emissions, NOx etc.  Big mistake.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2018, 03:08:47 PM
I once rented a "minivan" in France back when.  It was a Puegot 805 I think, we had five people, but it was smaller than our minivans and we had to get another vehicle for luggage etc.  The van had a manual transmission, which was fine with me.  I once got a car with a dual clutch transmission that was HORRIBLE.  I presume they are better now.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2018, 08:27:45 PM
Small SUVs and Crossovers are simply glorified mini vans

I won't have one

a pickup truck, sedan or coupe for me

I have to b really thirsty to buy bottled water

been to Walmart about 4 times in the past 5 years - money is never the reason
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 05:51:30 AM
I don't see the issue with minivans personally.  If I had kids again, I'd buy another one.  Of course my current drive is a 2012 Chevy Sonic with a 6-spd so I'm not too particular especially considering I like to read about cars.

The wife drives a Caddy CTS which she says is too big for her, so we have agreed that after the move, the Sonic goes to my daughter and as soon as I get a handle on the money thing we'll buy a VW GTI - small car for the city, comes with a 6 spd, decent room in the back, good handling for FWD, good mpgs, pretty good acceleration, plenty good enough.

I helped the other kid buy a new car and got a Cruze Diesel with a 6 spd and that car gets over 60 mpg routinely on the highway, which is pretty remarkable to me, but Americans don't like Diesels outside trucks.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 05:54:14 AM
One issue I see with "home solar" is lack of a turn key installation capacity, or maybe I didn't find it.  A few years back I looked into roof top PVs and I could buy the PVs but then you had to find a contractor who could install and license and certify.  You have to have a "backfeed preventer".

The math was not close to working anyway so I didn't bother.

This Musk fellow annoys me with all his promises that he doesn't deliver on.  Those rooftop solar "shingles" sounded like a great idea until one looked into what he's talking about, and he hasn't delivered on that yet either.

He seems to be "visionary" without much substance.

If there were local companies who could turnkey roof top solar, we'd have more of it especially in desert regions.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 09:31:38 AM
How the heck do you fit in a Sonic CDawg?

Is it like a Hightower thing where you sit in the back seat?


Those GTI's are a trip. One of my friends has one and it's like a little rocket. Very fun.

The Caddy ATS (certain varieties) is nice, but "ATS" always makes me think of "against the spread" so I could never have one.

"CTS" is "cover the spread" so that's not an option either.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 09:39:53 AM
my biggest issue with minivans is the look/image/style

the other factor is handling/performance

I'd rather overcome the inconvenience of loading and unloading kids/gear

my father drove a 2-door 1964 Ford Galaxie 500 XL when I was a kid.  Of course there were no car seats back then, but my brother and I got in and out of the backseat just fine

I drove mostly big late 80's early 90s versions of Caprice classics when my daughters were very young.  Plenty of room.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 09:41:50 AM
One issue I see with "home solar" is lack of a turn key installation capacity, or maybe I didn't find it.  A few years back I looked into roof top PVs and I could buy the PVs but then you had to find a contractor who could install and license and certify.  You have to have a "backfeed preventer".

The math was not close to working anyway so I didn't bother.

This Musk fellow annoys me with all his promises that he doesn't deliver on.  Those rooftop solar "shingles" sounded like a great idea until one looked into what he's talking about, and he hasn't delivered on that yet either.

He seems to be "visionary" without much substance.

If there were local companies who could turnkey roof top solar, we'd have more of it especially in desert regions.
They don't look very nice.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 09:42:16 AM
I grew up driving manuals, first 3 cars were 4-speeds

as I've gotten older and do more town/city driving I value the auto tranny - just lazy

gas is cheap
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 10:04:39 AM
How the heck do you fit in a Sonic CDawg?


Those GTI's are a trip. One of my friends has one and it's like a little rocket. Very fun.

The Caddy ATS (certain varieties) is nice, but "ATS" always makes me think of "against the spread" so I could never have one.

"CTS" is "cover the spread" so that's not an option either.


The Sonic is the ONLY car I've ever been in where the seat is not adjusted as far back as it will go.  I have it one notch ahead of all the way back.  It's a hatchback and I like it, except it has no power below 1800 RPM.  

The CTS is very luxurious but also handles well as it has the MHD suspension.  The only problem I have with it is the tires which are run flat 35 series profile P-Zeros and we've "busted" 5 of them plus one rim.  They cost $450 a piece.  I complained so much Caddy gave me a free warranty which covered the last two.  If you hit anything at any speed they get demolished.  I'm told run flats have this problem in low profile tires.  

The GTI is a quick car but not terribly fast for these days, but the manual makes it seem so.  And automatics these days usually get better mpgs than manuals.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 10:05:47 AM
I signed up to drive the Cadillac "Vs" on the COTA track in Austin.  I probably already posted about that, it was a hoot.  The CTS-V is too much for a street car I think, an honest 200 mph top end (I saw about 140).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 10:08:43 AM
Very surprising to hear about the room in the Sonic.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 10:16:04 AM
not easy to change out the P-Zeros?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 07, 2018, 10:17:11 AM
23 degrees outside right now. Low of 17 tonight.

Today is January 81, 2018.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 10:19:52 AM
You can set your winter watch by this fact: With the first big snow of the season, someone will ask Estherville, Iowa, residents about their buzz word: Blizzard.

A chilly claim to fame.

"Yes, people ask us about it," said Marcia Huntsinger, a resident of the Emmet County seat and a staff member at Estherville Public Library.

With that, Huntsinger consulted the book "Esther's Town" by longtime Estherville Daily News editor Deemer Lee.

Lee wrote that in April 1871 editor O.C Bates of The Vindicator newspaper couldn't think of a word forceful enough to describe a storm that hit the open prairie.

"He described the seasonably late blinding snowstorm as a blizzard, giving meaning to the word from that day forward," Huntsinger noted.

Estherville, like much of Siouxland, dug through 5 to 8 inches of snow Wednesday. Did Huntsinger consider it a blizzard?

"I would not consider this a blizzard," she said. "But it's a real hard call from downtown where we are, as opposed to the country where it can be a white out. But this is far from what I consider a blizzard here."
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on April 07, 2018, 10:21:24 AM
i flew out to San Diego not long ago... had business on Pendleton to attend.. had to rent a car and the gov is getting tight about such things... i got a chevy cruze... a tiny one... and there i was winding that poor thing up heading toward the base with cars whipping past me... i couldn't help but think of Saturday Night Live in that thing singing to myself "Fat man in a little coat".

my buds golf r he's selling is tiny... i'm pretty sure i could put it on the roof rack of my truck and hardly notice it.. however, he ain't no small fella and neither am i- we both fit in that thing fine and leg room isn't/wasn't an issue.. that freakin car, with over 500# of cargo (me and him) is friggin' FAST... not a little, a LOT.  0-60 in UNDER 4 seconds..

i love solar power- it works for me on several projects... it's the gov't that makes it so hard for regular folks to implement.. i'd have a roof of panels if it weren't for that.  as it is, i have a small panel here, there, there, here... i have a battery tender atop my truck's roof rack that straight up CHARGES that aux group 24 battery, not just tends it.  if it weren't for gov't......

(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/11133750_10153313751723755_3357217836236128400_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=42fe204116cded5d1541fa88a4599563&oe=5B351A57)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 10:21:46 AM
23 degrees outside right now. Low of 17 tonight.

Today is January 81, 2018.
set another record low early this morning - 12 degrees above
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on April 07, 2018, 11:14:06 AM
4 years ago when the ex and I were getting ready for the arrival of our twins we realized her Lexus IS250, despite being a 4 door car, was NOT roomy enough so we traded it in for a Dodge Grand Caravan with minimal options and we couldn't have been happier. Yeah, that Lexus was a blast to drive (as long as there was no ice or snow) but the van was so immensely more practical and convenient. Although when we split we agreed to let her keep the van without any issues. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 11:26:41 AM
not easy to change out the P-Zeros?
Impossible in fact.  That is the ONLY run flat tire available in that size from ANY vendor.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 07, 2018, 11:27:49 AM
Very surprising to hear about the room in the Sonic.
Yeah, I know, of course nobody sits behind me either.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 07, 2018, 04:39:35 PM
For you large fellas out there, I gotta give another shout out to the Ford Flex. That thing is a rolling La-Z-Boy, and the 2nd row seats are actually quite comfortable for folks of stature as well. In fact, in a pinch I (6'5" 260#) could probably pinch into the 3rd row for short trips. Granted, for folks like Cincy that are in the downsizing process, there's no need for such a big vehicle. But for what I was looking for (capable of taking 5 passengers and eventually a dog on a road trip), it has plenty of size but doesn't look like a minivan. It's more comfortable and roomy than all the other "crossover" SUVs, and outside of something massive like a Yukon/Suburban, has great amount of room. It even handles pretty well for being such a heavy pig...

I have nothing against minivans, BTW. They're *great* family vehicles. But I figured that with only having the kids 40% of the time, I didn't want to be driving a minivan the rest of the time lol.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 07, 2018, 05:01:31 PM
I've rented the Flex a few times on vacation.  Fits tall adults too.  My #1 hang up w mini vans is lousy torque. No punch.  Once kids were 5 and up, I went back to 4dr sedan.  I do miss the Outback at times.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 07, 2018, 07:44:28 PM
Impossible in fact.  That is the ONLY run flat tire available in that size from ANY vendor.
so the run flat is a must for the missus?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2018, 06:06:11 AM
I considered regular tires, and was warned off doing that by the dealer AND a Michelin tire guy (I was prepared to buy his tires).  There is no spare of course and if you get a flat for whatever reason you are dead in the water.

My solution is to trade (or sell) the car once we are settled in the ATL.  The all wheel drive should be less of a need in the South.  The GTI gets better mileage and can run on regular gas.  I hate to trade a very clean car with only 40 K miles on it at four years old because that is about the nadir of the depreciation rate, or the apogee I suppose it is.  It won't depreciate much from here is what I'm saying.

It's just too big a car for her preferences.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 08:39:43 AM
I added up some days, and today is January 98, 2018.

Gonna snow on the 99th.

Meanwhile, my boat sits in a storage building.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2018, 09:09:21 AM
started snowing here a few minutes ago

expecting 3 inches with wind 20-30mph

29 degrees

my golf cart sits in the shed

chilly at Augusta as well
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2018, 09:27:15 AM
Sunny and chilly here, sunny makes it better, a few skiffs of snow remaining from Saturday.

Mixed freezing stuff in the forecast.  I'm surprised how many folks we know asked why we were moving.  Many of them know nothing about Atlanta other than that there is an airport there.  I found that a trifle surprising.  Our French friends probably know more about it that some Cincinnatians, who can be rather insular at times.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2018/3/30/17173912/west-peachtree-street-midtown-development-alexan-coda-ascent

The area to which we are moving is exploding with construction cranes.  We're fortunately off to the side next to the park, so this is 3-4 blocks away in the main.  Unfortunately, we're also about a mile from the Georgia North Avenue Trade School.

The Dawgs play them in football each year, I can probably walk to the games and tickets are pretty easy to obtain.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2018, 09:32:24 AM
I think about attending Husker football games when thinking about moving south some fine day

that's why I think Kansas might be far enuff south

now if they would simply recreate the Sooner rivalry annual game I could go as far as Dallas
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 08, 2018, 09:57:04 AM
Shorts and sandals weather here . 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 10:04:02 AM
Sunny and chilly here, sunny makes it better, a few skiffs of snow remaining from Saturday.

Mixed freezing stuff in the forecast.  I'm surprised how many folks we know asked why we were moving.  Many of them know nothing about Atlanta other than that there is an airport there.  I found that a trifle surprising.  Our French friends probably know more about it that some Cincinnatians, who can be rather insular at times.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2018/3/30/17173912/west-peachtree-street-midtown-development-alexan-coda-ascent

The area to which we are moving is exploding with construction cranes.  We're fortunately off to the side next to the park, so this is 3-4 blocks away in the main.  Unfortunately, we're also about a mile from the Georgia North Avenue Trade School.

The Dawgs play them in football each year, I can probably walk to the games and tickets are pretty easy to obtain.


WE stayed at the Marriott Residence Inn-Midtown for the 2012 Board meeting. Cool area.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2018, 11:03:41 AM
I added up some days, and today is January 98, 2018.

Gonna snow on the 99th.

Meanwhile, my boat sits in a storage building.
3 Years
9 Months
0 Days
14 Hours
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 11:09:42 AM
Shorts and sandals weather here .
Send me some of that and I'll send you some water. Bitch.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 11:10:28 AM
3 Years
9 Months
0 Days
14 Hours
3 years, 8 months, 21 days, 14 hours.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 08, 2018, 11:35:43 AM
I get a nice profit sharing bonus if I work January 3rd, that Monday

and I'm 59 1/2 on the 8th
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 08, 2018, 11:56:48 AM
10/4.

Work on January 3rd then. I'm not. That's my birthday.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2018, 07:05:35 AM
It's January 99, 2018, and there is snow on the ground.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 09, 2018, 08:54:43 AM
Yeah, we got an "Atlanta snow" overnight, the kind that barely covers the grass and melts in a few minutes the next day.

The problem in Atlanta with driving is when they get freezing rain and sleet, not snow.  I've seen it where I could barely stand up on the parking lot without falling much less try and drive anywhere.

The snow rarely covers the pavement.

I've seen one ice storm like that in 28 years in Cincinnati.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on April 09, 2018, 09:16:09 AM
We had some in the air this morning but it didn't stick.  Upper 70s by the end of the week though, thank goodness.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 09, 2018, 09:26:25 AM
The ten day forecast is killin' me. 

For like a month now it has been promising awesome weather right around the corner, only to continuously get pushed back again and again. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 09, 2018, 09:28:19 AM
Looks like 70 is possible here on Friday, but then back into the 30's by Saturday night and no prediction for at or above average for at least 4 weeks.

This weather pattern sucks.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 09, 2018, 09:46:10 AM
yup, even Lincoln, 2 hours south of me and generally 5-10 degrees warmer this time of year has crappy 10-day forecast

I have 4 tickets to the Huskers/Hawks baseball series Saturday and Sunday - going to visit my daughter

Forecast for Lincoln - Saturday high of 33, one inch of snow, 28mph wind out of the NW - Sunday high of 41, cloudy, wind only 20mph

may have to eat those tickets - wish I would have only purchased two for each game
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 08:07:21 AM
January 100, 2018. 26 degrees.

Looks like April may come tomorrow, for a few days, and then March starts over the weekend, with lows in the high 20's or lower 30's for the next 10 days or so. At least the highs in that period will get into the 40's and maybe some 50's.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 09:03:02 AM
https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-the-world-passed-a-carbon-threshold-400ppm-and-why-it-matters


I don't see a realistic practicable or likely path to reducing even the upward trend very much, if any.  Of course, I do lean to being pessimistic about outcomes, but my life experience has forced me to be "realistic", something that was not helpful in my career.

The fact that I was right in my pessimism in my career was not appreciated either.

My nickname at work was "Doctor Doom" because I was pretty good at finding the flaws in various proposals (including my own).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 09:34:29 AM
Well, there is only so much "we" can do, but I do think little things matter.

It would help if the entire world was on board with some of this, even if a little.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 10:06:08 AM
When I say "we", I mean humanity as a whole.  Certainly individuals can do "something" but it's unrealistic to expect individual or even collective efforts are going to stop this thing, or curtail it by any measurable "degree".

It's going to happen, it's inevitable, and "we" probably should spend some time thinking about how to try and manage the worst of it.  

And yes, a HUGE effort might lop off a couple tenths.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 10, 2018, 10:40:34 AM
When winter finally ends, it will skip spring entirely and go straight to summer. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 10:42:29 AM
When I say "we", I mean humanity as a whole.  Certainly individuals can do "something" but it's unrealistic to expect individual or even collective efforts are going to stop this thing, or curtail it by any measurable "degree".

It's going to happen, it's inevitable, and "we" probably should spend some time thinking about how to try and manage the worst of it.  

And yes, a HUGE effort might lop off a couple tenths.
I don't hear or read much about this part. I hear and read plenty about the other stuff. Maybe I need to dig deeper.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 10, 2018, 10:54:56 AM

Yeah, it sure would suck if the planet were a few degrees warmer. 

We wouldn't be able to watch baseball games while dressed like we are out skiing. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 11:12:01 AM
One can take a very broad brush view of the US and energy and then consider the other Big Players and their situations.  Take a few common facts:

1.  About a quarter of US CO2 generation is from transportation (burning oil in essence).  You can put a pretty good dent in that with fuel economy increases and more EVs over time.  
2.  The other 75% or so is in electricity generation, which is about a third natural gas and a third coal and 20% nuclear.  So, that is 2/3rds that is fossil fuel today, and cutting that while also allowing for more demand as the country grows is "challenging".  
3.  Wind and solar account for about 6% today to the grid, hydro is about 8% (and not growing).

You can DOUBLE wind and solar (which is less than 1%) over the next decade and barely keep up with growing demand, leaving that 2/3rds figure unchanged.  You have to TRIPLE it to make a small dent in coal and NG, and of course if cars go electric you have more demand from there as well.  Small dent in rate of increase, not turning it negative.

And tripling wind and solar are simply not going to happen in a decade.  That is beyond the wildest growth estimates out there.

So, now consider China, left to the side of Paris until 2030 when they claim they will cap CO2 emissions magically.  Up until then they can pretty much do whatever and India is the same.  Those two countries account for about half of the future CO2 generation globally over time, so whatever the US and Europe manage to do is diluted by China and India (and Brazil et al.) are not doing soon enough.

So, the realistic prospects of curbing CO2 emissions and getting them on a downward trajectory is many decades off and the damage to the climate done in the meantime is not reversible unless we're talking centuries at zero.

You can look in VAIN on the Internet for any quasi-realistic plan to cut CO2 emissions globally, I've looked.  There isn't one, but you do find the same gloom and doom I list here by the MIT folks and others.

Unless ITER generates (ha) a major breakthrough in the next decade, which I don't expect either, we're basically screwed.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 11:53:28 AM
I guess we can still talk about the weather. Heh.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 11:59:33 AM
This is why leaders get together and sign pointless agreements with great fanfare.  It creates (for some) and illusion that something important was done.  If any of them had a real tangible PLAN, they'd be implementing that plan instead of doing irrelevant paperwork.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 12:00:45 PM
I suppose it's a bit like Akron, Miami, and Ohio signing an agreement that they are going to get better in football.  

But there is no PLAN in the agreement, they just agree they are going to do it and report back, and Ohio doesn't have to start until 2030 anyway.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2018, 12:19:49 PM
I think it's clear that humans are warming the environment via CO2. The questions are as follows:

1) Is warming bad? 
2) Will warming have positive feedback loops such that mild warming causes significantly more warming [i.e. by releasing frozen gases trapped in Siberia thus accelerating CO2, etc]?
3) What is the economic impact of warming [assuming it's negative]?
4) What is the economic impact of breaking the world's dependence on a CO2-based energy market [assuming it's negative]?
5) Is it more important to focus on economic growth and on fixing the effects of warming later, or on fighting CO2 now and accepting the damage to economic growth by hamstringing energy production?

Right now everyone assumes that warming is not only bad, but that it's catastrophic. And that the economic effects of warming will be devastating and destabilize the entire political/economic balance of the world. So we need to DO SOMETHING RIGHT NOW!

But that's the one area that I don't see a lot of serious work on. Right now we argue over the IPCC reports and the climate sensitivity numbers, but economic prognostication is a HARD job and we don't really have a clear answer on what warming will really do. We just assume we should stop it due to the precautionary principle.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 12:20:40 PM
I suppose it's a bit like Akron, Miami, and Ohio signing an agreement that they are going to get better in football.  

But there is no PLAN in the agreement, they just agree they are going to do it and report back, and Ohio doesn't have to start until 2030 anyway.
Sounds similar to the agreement that Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota signed in 1990.

Minnesota in 2030, eh?

~:P
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2018, 03:42:00 PM
This is why leaders get together and sign pointless agreements with great fanfare.  It creates (for some) and illusion that something important was done.  If any of them had a real tangible PLAN, they'd be implementing that plan instead of doing irrelevant paperwork.
the irrelevant paperwork has a way of becoming billions of dollars being pushed around to and from groups of folks
mostly tax dollars from folks like us to other folks that seem to need our money to do something irrelevant or nothing at all
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 03:48:01 PM
I remember working on a "study" back in the mid-1980's, for the extension of an expressway out of Crook County (IL) into Lake County (IL).

Then I worked on the same project again in the mid-1990's, doing a study. Since then, there have been 2 more studies, and now the State has just signed up yet another consultant to yet another study.

I'm still waiting for the extension to be built. I'm beginning to think I'll never see it.

But man, you can bet your ass it's been studied. You can also bet your ass a lot of consultants have been paid, and kickbacks been made.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 10, 2018, 04:22:48 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/z3pK6hX.gif)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 10, 2018, 04:28:09 PM
I remember working on a "study" back in the mid-1980's, for the extension of an expressway out of Crook County (IL) into Lake County (IL).

Then I worked on the same project again in the mid-1990's, doing a study. Since then, there have been 2 more studies, and now the State has just signed up yet another consultant to yet another study.

I'm still waiting for the extension to be built. I'm beginning to think I'll never see it.

But man, you can bet your ass it's been studied. You can also bet your ass a lot of consultants have been paid, and kickbacks been made.
I'm curious.  What route would this be?  US 41?   US 12?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2018, 04:46:34 PM
The Elgin-O'Hare Expressway? Which at least when I lived there (up until the late 90's) didn't actually reach Elgin or O'Hare?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 10, 2018, 05:28:43 PM
That's a good one, but that's not in Lake County.   I still don't think that Elgin Ohare route (390) gets anywhere near Elgin.  It does kind of make it to O'Hare now though.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2018, 05:32:20 PM
I bet it'll be completed before CA finishes high-speed rail ;-)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 06:43:09 PM
CA HSR is going to provide HS rail service between Fresno and Modesto in a few years. 

I have driven on a "freeway" in Chicago that was half a mile in length?

The Cincy streetcar is an object example in how the "developers" with connections make bank.

Then the city has to pay more millions to pull the rails up in a few years.

Stupid idea, but it's Cincy.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 10, 2018, 06:58:31 PM
Sounds like the genius streetcar idea Milwaukee is building.  Hey it's free money (feds).  Now locals can get free rides from bar to bar.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2018, 07:13:34 PM
CA HSR is going to provide HS rail service between Fresno and Modesto in a few years.


Can't wait. Connect the armpit and the arsehole. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 08:34:19 PM
I'm curious.  What route would this be?  US 41?   US 12?
Route 53 from Lake-Cook to +/- Route 120 in Grayslake, and then a split from there to I-94 along the Route 120 corridor.

Route 12 is never gonna happen. Wisconsin did its part, and Illinois walked on its part.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 10, 2018, 08:59:49 PM
I figured Route 12 would never go anywhere, because of Fox Lake, among other spots along the route.
I wouldn't have guessed 53.   I bet Arlington Racetrack would've loved it.   That would be like finishing off a second Tri-State, sort of like 495 in Boston.
There's some good periodicals out there about roads that have never been constructed.   I bet they went to school on all of those studies in order to write them. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2018, 09:01:58 PM
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.trbimg.com%2Fimg-5918c2d8%2Fturbine%2Fct-met-route-53-map-20170514%2F1562%2F1562x879&hash=e732e443decc157d8c090ae899ceb1c3)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2018, 04:35:33 PM
Atlanta was to have a north-south freeway back in the 80s, but it knifed through some subdivisions that put up a winning fight against it, so the terminal parts were built including a rather complex interchange downtown, but the middle section of about 15 miles was dropped.  Instead they widened the existing freeway from 3 lanes to 7, which of course is mostly chocked anyway now.

New freeways seem to attract more cars.  You wonder where they were before.  We probably can avoid the freeways most of the time at our new digs.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2018, 04:45:39 PM
The same people who argue against this Route 53 proposal were the ones who argued against the I-355 component of the system to the South.

I-355 is wildly popular among commuters and heavily used as a bypass for truck traffic looking to avoid I-294 snarls - which it has helped with.

Cars sitting in traffic for two hours is no good for air quality.

Build the highways and get them through. They are going to be on the road no matter what. May as well be for less time.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2018, 05:38:43 PM
I was pondering the concept of building toll roads basically parallel but perhaps 10-20 miles offset from the current Interstate.  You could take your pick, and perhaps the toll road would carry only trucks, or only cars, and have speed limits of 85 mph.  All of the intercity freeways in France are tolls and they charge a lot to drive on them, but the alternative highways are generally pretty bad.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2018, 06:15:01 PM
What would be "nice to see" is the outline of a plan, something starting with where we are today on CO2 emissions and where we plan to be in 2030, 2040, etc., how much it will cost, and how much it will lower global temperatures (according to the models).  I think that would be enlightening, even if it is only for the US (for now).

This gets more difficult as older nuclear power plants start to be taken off line of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2018, 06:16:22 PM
There is some of that concept in place already. California and Chicago come to mind - Chicago more so in the spirit of your idea.

You can drive straight through the City for free. If you want to bypass it on a choice of two Tollways, it's will cost you. It costs double if you don't have the electronic transponder.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 11, 2018, 07:00:45 PM
California toll roads are so expensive that it's effectively a luxury tax. 

I'm doing alright, but I basically avoid the toll roads unless I *REALLY* need to get somewhere fast. I'm not going to pay $10/day each way to drive the toll roads to/from work.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 04:58:34 AM
$10?  In France, every toll was 8-10 euros and they were every 40 miles or so.  We paid over 100 E on one day trip.

https://www.viamichelin.com/web/Routes/Route-Lyons-69000-Rhone-France-to-Paris-75000-Ville_de_Paris-France

Paris to Lyon is 4 and a half hours drive and 72 Euro, nearly $90.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 08:40:02 AM
You guys are advocating for more toll roads?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEeqCbEFIJw
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 08:51:33 AM
I was pondering the viability of toll roads separated from current busy interstates, perhaps truck only, or car only.  

I was thinking of I-75 between here and Atlanta for example.  It carries very heavy truck traffic.  Maybe build a two land divided truck highway separate from it and charge tolls.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on April 12, 2018, 09:06:59 AM
Where's the spots?

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/11/solar-activity-crashes-the-sun-looks-like-a-cueball/ (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/11/solar-activity-crashes-the-sun-looks-like-a-cueball/)


I wonder if that is why the robins have not yet returned?   Woke up to a snow covered lawn again again this morning.  It's snowed in April before and I've seen robins hanging out in the snow in past years.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2018, 12:26:43 PM
What would be "nice to see" is the outline of a plan, something starting with where we are today on CO2 emissions and where we plan to be in 2030, 2040, etc., how much it will cost, and how much it will lower global temperatures (according to the models).  I think that would be enlightening, even if it is only for the US (for now).

This gets more difficult as older nuclear power plants start to be taken off line of course.


hah, that would kill any spending - since it would very expensive and futile - so that would never happen
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 01:55:09 PM
And that is my point obviously, we don't see any plans because there are none.  That's why politicians have meetings and sign papers instead of developing realistic plans.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2018, 02:17:55 PM
Ed Zachery

there have been plans, they are just not realistic

so they are buried and never spoken of again
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2018, 02:31:45 PM
I was pondering the viability of toll roads separated from current busy interstates, perhaps truck only, or car only.  

I was thinking of I-75 between here and Atlanta for example.  It carries very heavy truck traffic.  Maybe build a two land divided truck highway separate from it and charge tolls.
The traffic through any corridor like that would be much better if people would stay out of the damn left lane except when passing.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 02:38:31 PM
In Ohio they used to have a lower speed limit for semis than they did for cars. 

Oh man, was that ever frustrating. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2018, 02:43:24 PM
The traffic through any corridor like that would be much better if people would stay out of the damn left lane except when passing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPJmjJhHMn0
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 03:35:19 PM
On I-75, traffic is often so heavy you have to drive in the left lane except for the portions that are 6 laned.

The right lane is for trucks that slow way down on those hills.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 03:36:34 PM
A truck only divided 2 lane might be affordable with tolls and have passing lanes on hills.  It could have fewer exits and bypass Knoxville and whatnot and cut straight through.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 03:48:14 PM
It wouldn't make much of a difference if the Trucks are allowed to continue to use I-75 in order to avoid paying the tolls. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 04:06:20 PM
The idea is that I-75 would be local trucks only near cities.  The "truck route" would be faster and stand alone at a price that was sufficient to fund it with no 4 wheelers.  It could be built with heavy truck traffic in mind and include truck stops in the media every 100 miles or so.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 04:36:18 PM

I'm just not sure that the bean counters particularly care whether or not their truck drivers have to use the more congested I-75.

And the owner/operators are probably not going to have much interest in paying the tolls if there is a toll-free freeway available. 

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2018, 04:57:40 PM
When Illinois first put in the expensive tolls for trucks up near the Wisconsin border, they started to get off before the toll at US Route 41. That lasted about 6 months. They are all paying now. Time is money too.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 05:01:45 PM
I'm sure that a percentage of the Trucks would use the toll road, but suspect that the goal is to inspire 100% of the Trucks to use the toll road. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 12, 2018, 05:51:35 PM
Wsj had piece this week on massive toll paying delinquency by truckers and individuals. 4, 5 figure balances due.  I know Illinois shames people quarterly
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 06:31:02 PM
We spend a lot of money widening these interstates, I'm suggesting an alternative for trucks to keep trucks off the regular highway.  If they drove on the regular highway they'd get pulled over.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 06:34:32 PM
Nice.

Now we are cooking with charcoal.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2018, 06:43:18 PM
I'm just not sure that the bean counters particularly care whether or not their truck drivers have to use the more congested I-75.
The bean counters most certainly do care. Trucks only make money when they're moving. If the traffic is bad enough on I-75 that the trucks are in stop-and-go, they're using a lot of gas. And with the limits that the truck drivers have regarding rest and off time, sitting in traffic doesn't help them.
Trucks today have very sophisticated tracking systems. I know, I've worked with the companies that build them. They've got GPS, of course, but they're also tied into the onboard computers. They can monitor fuel usage, MPG, etc. Part of this is due to things like taxes, i.e. I believe they don't pay taxes on their fuel directly but they pay each state taxes on how much fuel is consumed when crossing that state. 
If you're sitting in a jam going 10 mph, you're costing that truck company a lot of money. If the traffic is bad enough, the trucking companies would rather pay a reasonable toll than lose money with their trucks sitting in traffic jams.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2018, 06:45:45 PM
Taxes on Diesel are included in the pump price, same as on gasoline, and it's higher on Diesel, 25 cents a gallon versus 18.5 cents Federal only, plus 40-60 cents state.

Diesels are fascinating engines but I know they don't spark much interest among some.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2018, 07:03:45 PM
The bean counters most certainly do care. Trucks only make money when they're moving. If the traffic is bad enough on I-75 that the trucks are in stop-and-go, they're using a lot of gas. And with the limits that the truck drivers have regarding rest and off time, sitting in traffic doesn't help them.
Trucks today have very sophisticated tracking systems. I know, I've worked with the companies that build them. They've got GPS, of course, but they're also tied into the onboard computers. They can monitor fuel usage, MPG, etc. Part of this is due to things like taxes, i.e. I believe they don't pay taxes on their fuel directly but they pay each state taxes on how much fuel is consumed when crossing that state.
If you're sitting in a jam going 10 mph, you're costing that truck company a lot of money. If the traffic is bad enough, the trucking companies would rather pay a reasonable toll than lose money with their trucks sitting in traffic jams.
Well his plan was between Cincy and Atlanta, where the biggest city is Knoxville or maybe Chattanooga. Not much stop and go traffic unless you are actually in Cincinnati or Atlanta. Unless of course there is construction. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 12, 2018, 07:45:09 PM
We spend a lot of money widening these interstates, I'm suggesting an alternative for trucks to keep trucks off the regular highway.  If they drove on the regular highway they'd get pulled over.
I believe much of new jersey has a trucks only portion of 95.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2018, 07:46:02 PM
Taxes on Diesel are included in the pump price, same as on gasoline, and it's higher on Diesel, 25 cents a gallon versus 18.5 cents Federal only, plus 40-60 cents state.
Yeah, and maybe I have it backwards. Perhaps they pay for their state excise taxes but are able to claim rebates from the state they purchase from if they are paying the taxes to the other states they're driving through. Considering their tanks are hundreds of gallons, they have the ability to entirely pass through multiple states without buying gas. 
Either way I know it was important for them to do this as it related heavily to the taxes of exactly where they were and what state they were using the gas in. Hence, the bean counters were watching *this* very heavily, you know the bean counters will try to optimize anywhere else they can if it saves a dime.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2018, 05:27:15 AM
Years ago, I noticed a truck (semi) at a gas station and beside it was stacked 4 cases of oil.  I asked what was happening and the guy told me the engine used 48 quarts of oil for a change.

A fairly simple tactic would be to raise the gas tax 5 cents a gallon each January 1 for a few years.  That would replenish the Federal Highway Trust Fund and we could start to do some of this "infrastructure" stuff.

The I-75/71 bridge over the Ohio River here is well past its replacement date and there are not real plans to replace it, an estimate I saw was $2 billion for the new bridge.  The old one is almost scary.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2018, 10:19:56 AM


A fairly simple tactic would be to raise the gas tax 5 cents a gallon each January 1 for a few years.  That would replenish the Federal Highway Trust Fund and we could start to do some of this "infrastructure" stuff.

so, the freight companies pass that on to Walmart and everyone else - I'm fine with that
and then the railroads get fat as well - Warren Buffet is fine with that - and Devilfroggy!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2018, 11:02:17 AM
Every for profit company (and most not) pass on costs to the customer.  The cost can be anything, it gets passed on, with the usual markup.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2018, 11:23:26 AM
wondering if the railroads are taxed on diesel fuel

farmers do not have to pass that cost onto their customers
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 13, 2018, 12:34:04 PM
Yeah, and maybe I have it backwards. Perhaps they pay for their state excise taxes but are able to claim rebates from the state they purchase from if they are paying the taxes to the other states they're driving through. Considering their tanks are hundreds of gallons, they have the ability to entirely pass through multiple states without buying gas.
Either way I know it was important for them to do this as it related heavily to the taxes of exactly where they were and what state they were using the gas in. Hence, the bean counters were watching *this* very heavily, you know the bean counters will try to optimize anywhere else they can if it saves a dime.
I may be wrong, but I am betting that the states are tracking wages being paid while the driver is in their state as opposed to fuel taxes which are paid at the pump. When a driver is being paid to drive thru a state, the state would like to tax that driver for the amount they were paid. This is done with other professions, I can see the states attempting to do this with truck drivers also.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 13, 2018, 01:26:03 PM
 I can see the states attempting to do this with truck drivers also.

I'd like to see Delaware or Rhode Island do this.   Delaware dude:  You traveled across the entire stretch of I-95 in our fair state.   You spent 28 minutes in our state.  Ok, you owe us.......one dollar and eighty two cents.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2018, 02:31:16 PM
national speed limit back down to double nickels
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 13, 2018, 02:35:18 PM
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vanhalenstore.com%2Fshop%2Fgraphics%2F00000002%2FSHAG12-B_150x156.jpg&hash=17d1dd9d2759f87a0de5e1133951fd88)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 13, 2018, 02:44:59 PM
heck, just make ALL interstate highways toll - put up the electronic sensors(cameras) and send anyone driving on the highway a bill for their miles of use.

That way, folks buying gasoline or diesel fuel for boats, dirt bikes,  lawn mowers, golf carts, generators, or anything else with an internal combustion  engine aren't paying for the highway system they might not be using.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 13, 2018, 03:08:38 PM
Sounds awesome.

Then we can put a tracking device on every car that fines us automatically for moving violations. 

Increase revenue, while cutting costs on police cars and traffic cop salaries. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 13, 2018, 03:24:59 PM
here's that WSJ article on toll delinquency.
Hopefully the paywall isn't up.

Toll Road Delinquents (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-toughest-toll-roads-in-america-1523007001)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2018, 03:26:41 PM
No

More 

Government

Interference

In

My

Pocket

Or

Bedroom
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2018, 08:04:40 AM
What else would gummint do if not that?

I certainly trust those Senators to understand what needs doing with Facebook. :57:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2018, 09:18:30 AM
What else would gummint do if not that?

I certainly trust those Senators to understand what needs doing with Facebook. :57:
Get smaller? 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2018, 10:09:18 AM
Welp, this weather pattern we've been stuck in since March 1 - the one with no end in sight - has taken its toll.

Met with a realtor yesterday. We will be listing after Labor Day. We give up.

Uncle.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 14, 2018, 06:00:17 PM
"Lake" Michigan:

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .
 
REST OF TODAY...Northeast gales to 45 kt becoming east. Occasional storm force gusts to 50 kt are possible. Rain showers. Waves 14 to 18 ft occasionally to 23 ft. .
 
TONIGHT...East gales to 45 kt. A few storm force winds to 50 kt are possible early. Rain. Waves 12 to 16 ft occasionally to 21 ft.


So.. no launch today. Now scheduled for the 27th. We'll see.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2018, 10:54:33 AM
Freezing rain with snow coming later. This is super.

Hasn't stopped raining since Friday. Again, super. I guess I can be thankful I'm not in Minnesota, for today anyway.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 15, 2018, 11:10:18 AM
My boss' place 'up north'  (West of Green Bay a bit) was buried.  He had his farmer's neighbor plow his country road for a good 1/2 mile to help him get out.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 05:30:04 AM
This "spring" has made the allure of Atlanta more attractive to us (thought it's in the books anyway).

We have freezing stuff in the forecast again here.  

We have had a number of friends, like most of them, asking "Why Atlanta?" as if somehow it's the dark side of the moon or something.  I guess Florida is the typical move site for the "elderly"?  If we said Florida, I suppose folks would just nod.

Maybe Atlanta has a bad reputation or folks just don't know much about it past the airport?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 16, 2018, 08:16:49 AM
People scratched their heads when my parents said they were retiring to WY, twenty years ago.   People later visit, and suddenly understand the perspective a bit.  The world will do its own spinning, doesn't mean you have to live by some kind of script.    There's a lot people don't know, particularly human geography. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 08:23:26 AM
I liked Wyoming a lot until our host noted it would hit -40°F in the winter.

I have friends who retired to Sturgeon Bay, WI.  They are from MN originally and neither likes humidity and heat.  The wife professes to like the heat, and I can tolerate it for the most part.

Atlanta gets a bit of a break being 1,000 feet above sea level.  That is worth 4.5°F versus sea level "on average".  I was surprised how muggy Cincy is when I first came here from NC.  The heat just doesn't last as long and there are a few days in July and August that are pretty nice.  Atlanta in July and August is more consistently hot, but on average not much different in high T than Cincinnati. 

The winters here of course are a good deal worse than in ATL.  The ice storms in ATL can be very bad but won't really impact us now.  I think the only "ideal" weather in the US is in California or Hawaii.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 09:04:09 AM
It's nothing compared to our neighbors to the North, but there is about 2" on the ground this morning. This is pretty late in the season to be having snow that sticks on pavement.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 09:22:10 AM
Yeah, I see some random flakes here this AM, and it's near freezing of course.

I've had it, I'm moving.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 09:26:29 AM
CDawg, Man I wish I could pull that trigger right now, but I just can't.

3 years, 7 months, 15 days.

Mrs. 847 might actually go earlier, if we can work out the logistics. Being a Southern California girl, she's far more tired of this than I am, even though she's been here in the Midwest since 1976 or so.

Today is January 106th, 2018.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 09:27:24 AM
I have been retired now for about 5 years and a few.  I expected to be long gone by now.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 09:45:56 AM
Why didn't you leave earlier? I've been wondering about that.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 09:59:52 AM
I'd like to leave tonight or tomorrow

more snow expected Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 10:02:44 AM
This is bullshit.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: HailHailMSP on April 16, 2018, 10:17:23 AM
The weekend grand total in the west suburbs of MPLS. 22”. There aren’t enough cuss words in the English language to describe how I feel. And this is a winter we made sure to take two winter vacations too.

My 8 year olds is supposed to start baseball this week. Yeah right. Once it melts, the next problem will be flooded fields

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 10:19:16 AM
Baseball... hahaha. The Sox and Twins say hello.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 10:20:44 AM
I blame Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin, and Bob Stoops
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 10:21:07 AM
Baseball... hahaha. The Sox and Twins say hello.
and the Royals
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 10:30:00 AM
I blame Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin, and Bob Stoops
And Al Gore. Don't forget that.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 16, 2018, 10:38:23 AM
Baseball... hahaha. The Sox and Twins say hello.
They could've easily played that series at Miller Park this weekend (a la Angels/Indians awhile ago).  I suspect Dave St. Peter couldn't bear the humiliation.  Good time for them to head to P.R. this week.
1/2 my directs are not at work due to this snowfall. Green Bay had 22 inches, huge drifts, I have a colleague, she can't get out of her house, drifts are enormous.  Day cares closed.    Another guy's flight was canceled.   Somebody else was a gymnastics meet in Iowa, and they've stayed away til today.   I've got regulators coming this week (today), no word yet on their ETA.

The Examiners' flight was canceled.  They'll be here tomorrow.  :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 11:18:11 AM
Why didn't you leave earlier? I've been wondering about that.
Well, for one thing I got married and I really like the wife's house and where we live.  We traveled a lot so missed most of the bad weather and I suggested to her that was a decent plan.  Some other changes made her want to head out now and we found what appears to be an ideal location and condo, though we will still travel a good deal once we get settled and I see how my finances are doing.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2018, 11:22:30 AM
Most of the condos in our price range were in the 1,500 sq ft range and on the 35 floor or somesuch, great views but the decks they had were smallish and scary and windy.  We saw one 3 bedroom that was 2800 sq ft for a few dollars more but we didn't like the location or the HOA (which was nearly $1500 a month).  The selection available is pretty thin.

The unit we have bought (hopefully) has 3 bedrooms but is on 3 levels which we decided was OK as there is elevator access to each floor and each has its own outside deck which wraps around the unit.  The lower two bedrooms will be offices one with a sleeper sofa for any Badgers that show up.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2018, 12:46:28 PM
People scratched their heads when my parents said they were retiring to WY, twenty years ago.   People later visit, and suddenly understand the perspective a bit.  The world will do its own spinning, doesn't mean you have to live by some kind of script.    There's a lot people don't know, particularly human geography.
What I think a lot of people don't understand about the mountain west is that it actually is a LOT different weather-wise than the Midwest. People think "well if you're trying to avoid winter, why not go south?" But both the winter and the summers are different.
Now, I don't know WY that well, but I spend a lot of time in CO and have spent some time in UT. The winters are actually much more temperate than Chicago where I grew up. In CO you might get a foot of snow dumped on you, but it melts in a matter of days because they have 45 degree winter highs sprinkled in there. In Chicago it seemed like it was below freezing every minute from December through February. 
Then, the summers are better. It's high desert, so you don't have the humidity [nor the mosquitoes] that you get in the Midwest. So the summer is actually MUCH more pleasant than a Midwestern summer. 
I personally can handle cold but hate humidity. So for me, the Southeast is a no-go. A lot of people think I'm crazy to live in SoCal because it's hot in the summer, but the heat here is dry (without being the 110 degree Phoenix sort of hot), so it's really not that bad. 80 degrees with 95% RH is a LOT more unbearable to me than 95 degrees with 20% RH.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 12:52:22 PM
why I think of New Mexico

like Wyoming, without the snow
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2018, 01:12:21 PM
why I think of New Mexico

like Wyoming, without the snow
I've only really been to New Mexico once, for only ~24 hours. It was in the middle of the summer and it was part of a short business trip with one day in Phoenix and one day in Albuquerque.
The difference between the two was stark. It's amazing what some elevation can do. They're both desert, but SO very different.
Phoenix was about 110 in the shade. The very next day Albuquerque was hot, maybe 98 or so, but those 12 degrees make a HUGE difference. Phoenix to me is unbearable. Albuquerque was nice. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2018, 01:24:35 PM
Most of the condos in our price range were in the 1,500 sq ft range and on the 35 floor or somesuch, great views but the decks they had were smallish and scary and windy.  We saw one 3 bedroom that was 2800 sq ft for a few dollars more but we didn't like the location or the HOA (which was nearly $1500 a month).  The selection available is pretty thin.

The unit we have bought (hopefully) has 3 bedrooms but is on 3 levels which we decided was OK as there is elevator access to each floor and each has its own outside deck which wraps around the unit.  The lower two bedrooms will be offices one with a sleeper sofa for any Badgers that show up.
Book it!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 16, 2018, 01:33:59 PM
Wyoming (like any state with mountains) has a lot of microclimates.  Additionally, the average winter in Cheyenne or Casper isn't at all comparable to Cody, or Buffalo.  You have places which average 15 inches of snow per year all the way up to more than 200 inches (parts of Yellowstone).  I've hunted in places where the ground is bare, skies sunny clear, temps around 10, obscenely dry and calm, and a short ride away it is low visibility and all the snow you cover ever want.

Meanwhile Central WY (west of Casper, and east of Shoshoni), I feel like I'm might be driving on the moon

My folks are in a basin surrounded by the Rockies to the west and Bighorns to the east.  300 days of sun a year.  High desert, not much rain, and 'about' 40 inches of snow annually where they are located, but within 40 miles drive it would be 100 inches+ easily.    The winds (chinook) can be incredible, though that's true in a number of W-NW states.   That's when you have massive temperature movements,  60, 70, 80+ degree swings in as little as a couple hours.

It is very hard to generalize about weather in the mountain west states.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2018, 01:54:44 PM
Phoenix to me is unbearable. Albuquerque was nice.
this........

unfortunately, its a 12 hour drive from Albuquerque to Lincoln for the spring game
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2018, 08:49:45 AM
Woke up to a dusting of snow,now it's sticking & blowing.Jeebis Old Man Winter is definitely over staying his welcome
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2018, 09:46:56 AM
this........

unfortunately, its a 12 hour drive from Albuquerque to Lincoln for the spring game
There's this new technology out called airplanes. :57:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2018, 10:41:14 AM
There's this new technology out called airplanes. :57:
I guess I'll never get a ride in CinciDawg's crop duster.Eh,he'd prolly have an ejection seat installed anyway
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2018, 10:54:00 AM
There's this new technology out called airplanes. :57:
did you catch 60 minutes last Sunday?
I've flown Allegiant Air
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 17, 2018, 11:00:36 AM
this........

unfortunately, its a 12 hour drive from Albuquerque to Lincoln for the spring game
I've been in Phoenix for 5 years now. For the 3 or 4 months of unbelievable hot (where you go for AC car to AC office) is worth it for the 8 to 9 months of unbelievably great weather.
And while I know it is a cliche to say it is a dry heat, but walking out to 110 here is better than 90 with 90% humidity in the midwest where it takes your breath away.
I was back in the Ohio/Indian area at Christmas, the cold and the snow is much worst than the heat here

Thought I quoted the post that said that Phoenix is unbearable.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2018, 11:16:53 AM
pretty sure 3 or 4 months of unbelievable hot can kill old fat guys from the midwest
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2018, 11:23:50 AM
My opinion on "60 Minutes" is about as low as it can be.  They often, if not always, contrive stories and exaggerate to find a story without balance.  It's not that hard to take some "issue" and report ONLY the salacious stuff about whatever to make it appear to be a real story.

The job they did on Audi's and "unintended acceleration" was so badly done that they clearly went after the story without any merit as in one shot they showed an apparent unintended acceleration and the brake lights were not lit.

Their "analysis" was blown apart by many outside experts who had no association with Audi.  They did something similar to the Bradley Fighting Vehicle back in the day, and I quit watching them.

Allegiant may well be awful, I don't know, but I do not trust 60 Minutes for one minute.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 17, 2018, 12:07:06 PM
60 minutes has disgraced itself so many times, I'm honestly surprised they've kept it going.   Heck, why they (any of the networks) still operate Nightly News in the same format is questionable. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2018, 01:29:14 PM
They do entertainment, not "news", or even current events, and few folks realize how slanted their shows are.  They do some hatchet job on some company (usually) and then the company refuses to comment for the story for fear of how the interview would be edited, and that is offered as support for their claims.

It's a classic example in my mind of starting with a conclusion and fitting everything to make that conclusion seem both sound and eyeball catching.  Imagine they actually did a story in a balanced fashion.  Most of the time the result would be confusing and less than clear whereas a one sided "expose'" is going to be gratifyingly clear cut to the audience.

I've listened to numerous NPR stories in some depth and they do a far far far better job of balancing matters and showing both sides IMHO because their intent is not to be salacious and get eyeballs.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2018, 02:19:52 PM
so, it's ALL fake news and it has been for most of my lifetime?

no wonder I usually only watch live sporting events

and Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives, of course
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2018, 02:28:53 PM
I'm sure they do some reasonable shows on more obvious things, but they can't start an investigation into a story and come out with nothing, they have to have a story, so they concoct one if none is really present.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2018, 02:35:36 PM
Cold front in Phoenix today - high of 78.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2018, 04:35:44 PM
I won't touch anything 60 minutes anymore. Haven't for at least 10 years.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2018, 04:37:12 PM
youse guy really should tell me about this shit
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2018, 10:47:39 AM
I've been in Phoenix for 5 years now. For the 3 or 4 months of unbelievable hot (where you go for AC car to AC office) is worth it for the 8 to 9 months of unbelievably great weather.
And while I know it is a cliche to say it is a dry heat, but walking out to 110 here is better than 90 with 90% humidity in the midwest where it takes your breath away.
I was back in the Ohio/Indian area at Christmas, the cold and the snow is much worst than the heat here

Thought I quoted the post that said that Phoenix is unbearable.
Yeah, I think you were attempting to quote my post saying Phoenix is unbearable.

I've been in Phoenix and Vegas in the summer. It's not just me as a native Midwesterner talking about how I *think* it would feel. I've done it. It's brutal. I feel like I'm in a furnace when I walk out the door. When it's windy, that's just a convection oven. It's not a breeze coming at you, it's a blowtorch. 

Now I agree that it's more pleasant than 90 degrees with 90% RH in the Midwest. Especially since that Midwestern world is full of moisture and therefore mosquitoes. And that in the Midwest, due to the specific heat of water carrying that heat, you get *no* real advantage to the shade. It's just as hot and muggy in the shade. 

But "it's a dry heat" only goes so far. When you start hitting 110+ degrees, it don't matter what kind of heat it is. It just sucks.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2018, 10:52:34 AM
another 3-4 inches of wet heavy humid snow here this morning

36 degrees currently

I know it's only the 18th, but if I'm lucky we could get some snow in May
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2018, 11:42:27 AM
This is bullshit.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2018, 02:34:09 PM
While mid-April is by no means a pleasant time to have snow, we still have a long way to go before breaking any records for late-season snowfall. 

The latest snowfall on record? That would be May 28, 1947, when the city received 0.8 inches, according to the National Weather Service in Sioux Falls.

The latest "significant" snowfall -- one measuring 2 inches or more -- was May 9, 1945, when Sioux City received 4 inches. 

Here's hoping those records stick around for at least another year. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2018, 04:08:29 PM
I'm not optimistic at this point.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2018, 06:13:23 PM
Tonite thru tomorrow 1"-2",according to the weather man middle of May in 2016 we had some snow.Had flats of flowers on sale 2/1 last week at the big box stores.They be dead if I bought them,even covered up in the garage
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 18, 2018, 06:20:33 PM
We had a 6 inch snow storm on May 10th 1990 in Milwaukee area.  Schools delayed as the plows were taken off city vehicles by then. Lots of tree damage.  I remember that vividly.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2018, 07:02:13 PM
Looks like Cincy is finally getting Spring.  The ATL has had it for weeks of course.  Headed down Friday.

It will be interesting how the wife really adjusts to ATL summers.  We do have a pool right downstairs, which is nice.  She claims to like the heat but has never lived anywhere with this kind of heat, though Cincy can be bad.

A LOT of folks around Paris have no AC at all.  When they get a heat wave it gets critical in a hurry, and they get heat waves.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2018, 10:48:54 AM
spring may be ready to sprung here

10-day forecast showing highs in the 60s and overnight lows above freezing
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 19, 2018, 11:25:40 AM
Yeah, I think you were attempting to quote my post saying Phoenix is unbearable.

I've been in Phoenix and Vegas in the summer. It's not just me as a native Midwesterner talking about how I *think* it would feel. I've done it. It's brutal. I feel like I'm in a furnace when I walk out the door. When it's windy, that's just a convection oven. It's not a breeze coming at you, it's a blowtorch.

Now I agree that it's more pleasant than 90 degrees with 90% RH in the Midwest. Especially since that Midwestern world is full of moisture and therefore mosquitoes. And that in the Midwest, due to the specific heat of water carrying that heat, you get *no* real advantage to the shade. It's just as hot and muggy in the shade.

But "it's a dry heat" only goes so far. When you start hitting 110+ degrees, it don't matter what kind of heat it is. It just sucks.
The air in my oven is a dry heat, but I won't climb into it. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 19, 2018, 11:28:37 AM
I remember a few years back, the Memorial Golf tournament that is usually player around Memorial Day in Columbus, they had 1-2" of snow on the course on the day before the tournament started (Wednesday). It had melted off early in the day, but it had the tournament officials nervous.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 19, 2018, 11:59:13 AM
Yeah, I think you were attempting to quote my post saying Phoenix is unbearable.

I've been in Phoenix and Vegas in the summer. It's not just me as a native Midwesterner talking about how I *think* it would feel. I've done it. It's brutal. I feel like I'm in a furnace when I walk out the door. When it's windy, that's just a convection oven. It's not a breeze coming at you, it's a blowtorch.

Now I agree that it's more pleasant than 90 degrees with 90% RH in the Midwest. Especially since that Midwestern world is full of moisture and therefore mosquitoes. And that in the Midwest, due to the specific heat of water carrying that heat, you get *no* real advantage to the shade. It's just as hot and muggy in the shade.

But "it's a dry heat" only goes so far. When you start hitting 110+ degrees, it don't matter what kind of heat it is. It just sucks.
Idaho has the oven full of hair dryers summers, plus they get an insane amount of snow in the winter. 
Then there's Salt Lake, which has Idaho weather, only with high humidity piled on top of it. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2018, 12:34:33 PM
Never been to Salt Lake

closest I've been is probably the Grand Tetons

would not have guessed Salt Lake to be humid
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 19, 2018, 01:14:07 PM
Just went to the Grand Tetons last summer, flying in and out of SL, UT. 

After a week in the Tetons, temps in the 110s with high humidity was really something else. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2018, 02:08:59 PM
3 week trip by car with the family back in 1976

From Sewer City through Rapid City, Yellowstone, Butte, Portland, the redwoods, San Fran, LA, Grand Canyon, Durango CO, and back to Sewer City
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 19, 2018, 02:25:41 PM
So you got to go back when people fed the bears from their car. 

Nice. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2018, 03:29:33 PM
Idaho has the oven full of hair dryers summers, plus they get an insane amount of snow in the winter.
Then there's Salt Lake, which has Idaho weather, only with high humidity piled on top of it.
Now, Idaho is one of the few states I've never been to, but I highly doubt it's anything like Vegas or Phoenix.
I know a lot of those areas of the inland northwest get hot. But when they say hot, they mean a few weeks in August when the highest daily temps are slightly topping 100. They don't mean two months of 110+. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 19, 2018, 04:04:38 PM
Now, Idaho is one of the few states I've never been to, but I highly doubt it's anything like Vegas or Phoenix.
I know a lot of those areas of the inland northwest get hot. But when they say hot, they mean a few weeks in August when the highest daily temps are slightly topping 100. They don't mean two months of 110+.
Yeah, obviously their summers aren't quite as brutal as in the SW. But they are still awfully unpleasant, sans the benefit of the mild winter. Gather thy snow tires. 
Not much of a Fall or Spring, either. It just kind of bounces from one extreme to the other. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2018, 05:20:24 PM
So you got to go back when people fed the bears from their car.

Nice.
yup, I was 14.  Woody Hayes was my favorite coach
and the Cornhuskers were still good
gas was 49 cents a gallon
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 30, 2018, 04:04:54 PM
Spring is here at last.

85 degrees here this afternoon, should melt the remaining snow in the ditches!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 30, 2018, 04:20:37 PM
Snow still on the ground?  It's practically May.  

Oh but yeah, sounds great, you should totally stay there and not move here.  :)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2018, 05:02:49 PM
F'ing 47 degrees, windy and rainy in Kenosha right now. Needless to say, we're not there.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 12, 2018, 06:01:30 PM
You lucky bastages got up to 47,send some of that our way
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 12, 2018, 08:43:17 PM
I want some local warming.

Is that too much to ask, after a January that went 118 days?

F'ing Canadians can stick their Canadian air mass up their ass.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on May 12, 2018, 08:48:54 PM
F'ing 47 degrees, windy and rainy in Kenosha right now. Needless to say, we're not there.
85 here Badge.  Lake Michigan is one big ice box in the spring. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2018, 07:01:08 AM
It's 49 at home. It's not that close to the ice box.

Last weekend, it was 80 up there, until the wind shifted. That was that.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2018, 09:40:12 AM
furnace running this morning at my house

supposed to warm up this afternoon for a round of golf
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 13, 2018, 09:43:26 AM
I just hope my wife and mom of 2 can enjoy a nice day and be outside, comfortably. Supposedly we will reach 67 today. I'm not holding my breath.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 13, 2018, 09:56:10 AM
high of 66 here

I'll be wearing shorts, but hopefully, I have more hair on my legs
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2018, 12:21:49 PM
High of 91°F predicted, we're headed down stairs to the pool later. :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 08:55:41 AM
Yup, upper 90s for the next 2 weeks here.  Morning lows around 70, that's when I run.

My i s c & a aggie wife enjoyed her mother's day lounging by the pool with the kids, whilst I toiled away making margaritas and cooking BBQ for her. It was a good day.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2018, 11:10:24 AM
The first few days of rain here since we moved.  I'm assembling a dresser the wife wanted and bought at this place called "Ikea" or something where everything comes in a box and needs assembly.

Boy what fun.  Cheap, she said.  The stuff at least fits properly.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2018, 12:03:26 PM
That is your first exposure to Ikea?

They've been in this market for 20+ years. I try to avoid it. Everything needs to be assembled, and the stuff is HEAVY.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2018, 12:07:12 PM
My issue with Ikea is that you have to walk the entire damn store to get anything.

It's not the walking, mind you. I enjoy long hikes. It's the damn people who like to walk 0.5 mph three-wide in the narrow lane they have in the place. 

I don't think I'm ever going to step foot in an Ikea again. It's not worth it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on May 16, 2018, 12:19:27 PM
Yeah, I had an ex that bought a table there, probably 10+ years ago.  As you said, heavy.  It wasn't a big table, and since it was still in a box, it wasn't unwieldy, but it was tough to get up to her apartment.  Once up there, it wasn't even really a kit, IIRC a had to drill some of the holes.  It was basically a box of pre-cut shitty lumber.  I haven't been back since, and I'm going to guess that was 2006.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: ELA on May 16, 2018, 12:22:14 PM
I also like that we have a Cable thread where we discuss HOAs as a political model; and a Weather thread where we discuss Scandivian furniture chains.

Why have the Offseason thread?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2018, 12:25:25 PM
Her idea was to sell most of our furniture and buy new stuff here that fit the condo.  I had some pretty expensive stuff that is now on EBTH, if anyone is interested in mahogany Heinkel Harris furniture going for a song right now.

So, we went moderately upscale for the living room and master bedroom, but for our offices she was fine with IKEA stuff, and I just finished assembly of a dresser that went behind the sofa in the living room (it isn't very visible).

She bought a desk from Modani (moderately better stuff) but it arrived sans hardware, so they are coming to pick it back up and refund the money and she says she'll manage with an IKEA desk.

I bought a nice entertainment center/TV stand from Wayfair but it was a disaster, so that will be IKEA now also.  That Wayfair thing looked really nice but was so badly fitted and had missing parts I had to junk it.  They did refund the $435.

We also bought a sleeper sofa for my office from Macy's and they botched the delivery so we cancelled and got one from - IKEA - and paid for assembly but they botched that part of the order so it's still in a box here.  I wish I had my old entertainment center here but it was mostly glass and I didn't think it would survive the move.

The furniture escapades have been very wearing.  The wrong stuff comes, or doesn't come at all, etc.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2018, 12:34:41 PM
The furniture escapades have been very wearing.  The wrong stuff comes, or doesn't come at all, etc.
We just bought some tiered serving stands for the wedding reception, and the Monday before the reception (when we finally opened them to look at them) we saw that the three stands--which were all supposed to be rose gold--were all different colors. One was silver, and the other two were rose gold but not a matching shade. All were from the same vendor.
The vendor actually did us a solid and sent us advance replacements overnight shipping at no charge. I asked them to physically open them and confirm all three were the right color. They didn't do that, and of course one of the sets didn't match the other two (at least they were all rose gold).
Luckily since it was an advance replacement, I was able to mix and match and between the first and second shipment, was able to construct 3 stands that were all a matching shade out of the parts and ship the company back three full sets that didn't match.
But that was quite annoying.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2018, 12:40:47 PM
I am starting to like going where I buy the actual thing off the showroom instead of this on line of fake show room concept.  I know it is more expensive.

Our refrigerator here had 3-4 broken shelves and whatnot, so I go on line to replace them and find the total was over $500, for replacement shelves.  Burfle that.

So, bought a new one from Costco.  I hope.  The fridge here is a 30" type, which is smaller than we had in Cincy, but is OK I hope.  NO room for the larger ones.  We brought a small "dorm fridge" that is in my office but not yet plugged in.  We're not decided what to do with that one.  The office is getting crowded.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 16, 2018, 12:45:20 PM
i'm building a bar and cooking pit (outdoor kitchen?) currently... using untreated douglas fir 4x4's for the bones... I like doing these things, but i don't even attempt to perfection... some call it sloppy, i call it 'rustic'.  i like rustic.  

i'm doing something i've not seen before by using 6 parallel 4x4's for the bar surface... I'm going to run a router down them for joints- a kind of t&g if you would, then use an all thread rod every 2' and pull them tightly together, counter sinking the bolt/nut and finishing them off with a dowel.. should make for a substantial surface and something that wears nicely outside so long as it remains oiled after the planing and sanding.  i've considered an epoxy on the surface that appears as 1/4" of glass, which would fill any voids and offer a perfectly level surface- but then i'd have to go back and do all the surfaces like this... and that, folks, ain't gonna happen.  that stuff is $175/ga, and it would take 3 just for the bar surface- not to mention "dust free and dry environment for the 7~10 day cure time"... 

all this is to be done by june 9th, when there will be quite the party.... 

i wish like hell you could buy what i needed and bolt it together, but that ain't happening... it wouldn't last, even if it was available. inside? maybe... outside? nope... 

the lower counters will be concrete.  that stuff has worked out for me in the past, and knowing now what i didn't know then should turn out even better. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 16, 2018, 12:51:13 PM
i'm building a bar and cooking pit (outdoor kitchen?) currently... using untreated douglas fir 4x4's for the bones... I like doing these things, but i don't even attempt to perfection... some call it sloppy, i call it 'rustic'.  i like rustic. 
Looking forward to pics when you're done, Drew. Heck, "in process" pics would be fun too.
I'd like to do the same at my next house, for my grills. I have two Kamado grills, and would like to mount up a propane burner for sauces, chili, wok cooking, etc. Right now the grills are in individual stands and the propane burner sits on the concrete patio when I want to use it, which is a bit low for comfortable cooking.
But it will partly depend on whether it ends up being a purchase or another rental. I'll need to know whether it's something I want to build in or keep it modular for future moves. And then if it ends up being a built-in, because it'd be built for Kamado grills, would I eventually sell and replace the grills when selling the house? Not sure.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 16, 2018, 01:16:34 PM
all this started about two years ago... i had a 50' wide 135' deep lot beside me i'd been trying to buy for years- but the owner wanted it to be attached to the lot behind me, so to provide the square footage required for septic of a 5 bedroom house (which no fool would build such a thing in my neighborhood).  she finally sold it to a client of my wife's, and i immediately offered him... there is a utility easement between my lot and the lots behind, isolating the lot in question- making it useless for anyone other than me or the people adjacent me on the other side of the lot.  Got it cheap ($10k) when the tax assessed value is $40k.  

clearing it cost a small fortune.  

grading it was tricky- too much for a power rake, too small a lot for heavy equipment... finally got it taken care of though... slapped a 30x28 steel building on it, that has a 12' steel awning running the 30' length of the back... on the corner of the awning covered section i'm building the bar, and just off of it (under what will have something akin to a pergola covering it) the cooking pit will be built.

right now i'm waiting for three things (i hate waiting)- one, the power company has to run their trench for the underground service that will go through the pass between the bar and the pit... no sense doing anything until that's done.. second, sodding... I put down 12 pallets over the weekend, and there are at least 7 more to go (selected bermuda due to the dog traffic- fairly tough stuff, and St. Augustine or zoisia isn't available right now- back to that june 9th thing again)... third: inspection.

at any rate, more in response to your comment @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , the pit will be L shaped- the side parallel to the bar will have 2 (maybe 3) 4x4's fashioned the same as the bar's, and for serving.  the lower counter between the server and the served will also be concrete (matching the bar)... the longer L will have a griddle (28" already landed still boxed) then the ecoque gen2, then a small stainless (3 burner) grill, then a sink, and then a propane burner for the massive ss pots used in low country boils or Brunswick stews.   in the apex of the L will be an island with the same surface as the bar and serving area, but used like a butchers block.  I plan on decorative/functional pebble ground with wooden walkways, which should allow for better drainage of the inevitable spills.  the ground is a sandy loam to begin with and swallows water quickly.

between this and the two head kegorator i just landed, the beverage cooler i've yet to select (got it down to three choices, though), a full size fridge the neighbor gave me and a 55" 4k i plan on connecting via information gleaned from the 'cut the chord' conversation- i should have, after all the work is completed- a nice hang out...

i was going to do a built in grill, griddle, ect, until i saw the price of those things.  i'm happy making it modular and able to be separated/swapped as needed- though tied together nicely. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 16, 2018, 01:19:20 PM
I also like that we have a Cable thread where we discuss HOAs as a political model; and a Weather thread where we discuss Scandivian furniture chains.

Why have the Offseason thread?
Good question.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 16, 2018, 01:19:48 PM
Good question.
tradition, y'all. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 02:20:28 PM
I also like that we have a Cable thread where we discuss HOAs as a political model; and a Weather thread where we discuss Scandivian furniture chains.

Why have the Offseason thread?
Why indeed?  Y'all are getting more and more B12 every day.
I approve. :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 02:25:10 PM
I also like that we have a Cable thread where we discuss HOAs as a political model; and a Weather thread where we discuss Scandivian furniture chains.

Why have the Offseason thread?
this happens when you let in the Big 12 folks
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 02:25:40 PM
Why indeed?  Y'all are getting more and more B12 every day.
I approve. :)
hah!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 02:31:16 PM
all this started about two years ago... i had a 50' wide 135' deep lot beside me i'd been trying to buy for years- but the owner wanted it to be attached to the lot behind me, so to provide the square footage required for septic of a 5 bedroom house (which no fool would build such a thing in my neighborhood).  she finally sold it to a client of my wife's, and i immediately offered him... there is a utility easement between my lot and the lots behind, isolating the lot in question- making it useless for anyone other than me or the people adjacent me on the other side of the lot.  Got it cheap ($10k) when the tax assessed value is $40k.  

clearing it cost a small fortune.  

grading it was tricky- too much for a power rake, too small a lot for heavy equipment... finally got it taken care of though... slapped a 30x28 steel building on it, that has a 12' steel awning running the 30' length of the back... on the corner of the awning covered section i'm building the bar, and just off of it (under what will have something akin to a pergola covering it) the cooking pit will be built.

right now i'm waiting for three things (i hate waiting)- one, the power company has to run their trench for the underground service that will go through the pass between the bar and the pit... no sense doing anything until that's done.. second, sodding... I put down 12 pallets over the weekend, and there are at least 7 more to go (selected bermuda due to the dog traffic- fairly tough stuff, and St. Augustine or zoisia isn't available right now- back to that june 9th thing again)... third: inspection.

at any rate, more in response to your comment @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , the pit will be L shaped- the side parallel to the bar will have 2 (maybe 3) 4x4's fashioned the same as the bar's, and for serving.  the lower counter between the server and the served will also be concrete (matching the bar)... the longer L will have a griddle (28" already landed still boxed) then the ecoque gen2, then a small stainless (3 burner) grill, then a sink, and then a propane burner for the massive ss pots used in low country boils or Brunswick stews.   in the apex of the L will be an island with the same surface as the bar and serving area, but used like a butchers block.  I plan on decorative/functional pebble ground with wooden walkways, which should allow for better drainage of the inevitable spills.  the ground is a sandy loam to begin with and swallows water quickly.

between this and the two head kegorator i just landed, the beverage cooler i've yet to select (got it down to three choices, though), a full size fridge the neighbor gave me and a 55" 4k i plan on connecting via information gleaned from the 'cut the chord' conversation- i should have, after all the work is completed- a nice hang out...

i was going to do a built in grill, griddle, ect, until i saw the price of those things.  i'm happy making it modular and able to be separated/swapped as needed- though tied together nicely.
Heh, this reminds me-- I will say that my tendency to procrastinate has finally paid off (in a small way, but paid off nonetheless, darnit!).
In our backyard we have a nice pool and spa (the kind where the waterfall goes over the spa ledge into the pool), a built-in natural gas fire pit adjacent to the pool, and a pretty large 30x12 covered patio with a built-in outdoor kitchen including a propane grill and refrigerator.  We also have a dining set and a conversation set on the back patio.
We've lived in this house for 6 years, and I've always wanted to put in a TV on the back patio, but never wanted to run cable out there to do it.  I have power from the ceiling in the perfect place to do it, but just never got around to overcoming the hassle of getting the television source worked out.
And now, 6 years later, wireless TVs are so ubiquitous that the solution has presented itself.  I now have a 55" Samsung 4K smart wireless TV that I've attached to a wireless remote-controlled drop-down TV ceiling mount.  Samsung supports the Spectrum TV app and it also has WatchESPN and pretty much anything else I need.  
So yeah, take THAT, doers!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 02:33:59 PM
this happens when you let in the Big 12 folks
lulz. :72:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 03:12:08 PM
Good to see you're warming up to your future neighbor   :friends:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2018, 03:24:52 PM
I admire all these do it yourself folks.  I prefer to write checks.

Unless it's stuff from IKEA.  I LOVE assembling those items.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 04:40:23 PM
Good to see you're warming up to your future neighbor   :friends:
Bite your tongue! :96:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 04:42:47 PM
I'm also a procrastinator

we're gonna be great together on the same block!

I'll be the guy that the HOA is after!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 04:47:12 PM
I admire all these do it yourself folks.  I prefer to write checks.

Unless it's stuff from IKEA.  I LOVE assembling those items.
I'm a big fan of DIY, but these days my priorities lie with the kids.  Getting them to their various activities takes up enough weekend time that I tend to hire out the more mundane stuff.
Still, I really do enjoy it, and so I focus on the really fun carpentry and larger building projects, and let the kids help so we get to spend quality time that way.  I leave the painting, tiling, hardwood installation, and other stuff I used to always do myself, to the pros.  I'm happy to write a check for that stuff, if it means I get to build custom built-in cabinetry in my home, or even better, create and install custom furniture in the Airstream!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 04:51:06 PM
I'm also a procrastinator

we're gonna be great together on the same block!

I'll be the guy that the HOA is after!
Just keep your car on its tires, off the street, your lawn mowed, your flowerbeds weeded, the 1/4 of your house that's allowed to not be masonry beige, your door solid hardwood, your shingles light brown, and your fence of natural cedar in good repair and stained slightly reddish, and you'll do quite well with my HOA.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2018, 04:57:13 PM
hopefully, they won't mind if I simply live in your backyard

sounds nice like my brother's, he has the spa pool waterfall as well and pays the HOA
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 05:27:34 PM
You should move in with HIM! :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 05:43:12 PM
hopefully, they won't mind if I simply live in your backyard

sounds nice like my brother's, he has the spa pool waterfall as well and pays the HOA
Live in the trailer like Rockford.You could take care of the 94's lawn weeds with your pitching wedge or spray some bud fat on them
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 16, 2018, 06:09:47 PM
Ain't no trailers allowed in my neighborhood.


I always wanted a house with a drive-in living room like Dan Tanna had, on the hit 70s television show "Vega$"
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 08:16:48 PM
How about a drive in living room like Bluto,D-Day,Otter & Boon had at Delta House?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2018, 08:23:40 PM
Ain't no trailers allowed in my neighborhood.
Where's the Airstream,did you turn it into a competition smoker?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 08:55:19 AM
Where's the Airstream,did you turn it into a competition smoker?
Ha!  No, it's in storage.
But a friend and neighbor wants to buy it from me and turn it into a food trailer.  He makes and sells his own beef jerky.  I guess folks would buy beef jerky out of an Airstream trailer...
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2018, 10:04:44 AM
You should move in with HIM! :)
that's my plan.  Wish they had basements in RR.
don't know why, but I feel like I could get bored or wear out my welcome after a few months or years, so.......
my plan also includes living in your backyard and then moving around with other good friends that have quality backyard environments such as Drew4UTk and possibly Badger once he's in Florida.
I prefer climates suitable for year round golf and sleeping outdoors.  The 401K money should last longer this way.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2018, 10:06:47 AM
Live in the trailer like Rockford.You could take care of the 94's lawn weeds with your pitching wedge or spray some bud fat on them
I wouldn't actually need to be inside the airstream, but the use of the awning would be nice.
recycled Bud Fat
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 10:13:23 AM
(https://ssl.c.photoshelter.com/img-get/I0000K9Mea50aRko/s/600/600/tiny-houses.jpg)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2018, 10:16:58 AM
that's my plan.  Wish they had basements in RR.
don't know why, but I feel like I could get bored or wear out my welcome after a few months or years, so.......
my plan also includes living in your backyard and then moving around with other good friends that have quality backyard environments such as Drew4UTk and possibly Badger once he's in Florida.
I prefer climates suitable for year round golf and sleeping outdoors.  The 401K money should last longer this way.
Not with me around.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2018, 10:20:18 AM
yup, I'm going to eat and drink the good stuff
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 17, 2018, 10:27:19 AM
W.L. Weller... that's the good stuff.  the 15yo bottle is two years shy of being the youngest Pappy Van Winkle.  same stuff in the barrel, just bottled sooner.  I prefer it over the Pappy- it seems to not have the absurd smoke flavor pappy has... i could be easily convinced the 23yo pappy has liquid smoke added. not that it's bad, it's not- it's just right... just not something you'd expect to encounter in a drink.  the weller doesn't suffer from that... it's just as good as the pappy but in a different way.  pappy with lessor smoke.  good stuff. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 17, 2018, 10:27:30 AM
You'll need one of these too (the boat):

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gradywhite.com%2Fmedia%2F8557%2Fd51_0296-ret.jpg%3Fwidth%3D2000&hash=4fad1637d9e42d179c1b6dd8e2f1935c)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 10:33:03 AM
W.L. Weller... that's the good stuff.  the 15yo bottle is two years shy of being the youngest Pappy Van Winkle.  same stuff in the barrel, just bottled sooner.  I prefer it over the Pappy- it seems to not have the absurd smoke flavor pappy has... i could be easily convinced the 23yo pappy has liquid smoke added. not that it's bad, it's not- it's just right... just not something you'd expect to encounter in a drink.  the weller doesn't suffer from that... it's just as good as the pappy but in a different way.  pappy with lessor smoke.  good stuff.
I'm an Islay single malt guy so I'm good with smoke, and I like pappy just fine but don't consider it to be anywhere near worth the price.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 17, 2018, 10:38:43 AM
off the sandbar:

(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13775426_10154459726068755_6002520030239944342_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=84525808dadee4d3e10f3a204e072466&oe=5B8E87C2)

kinda cool watching storms pass just over the sound on the 'inner banks'... 

(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13606880_10154420506773755_8166940883886026640_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=48e26fde0ee71f2abee3322feb30aa5e&oe=5B798FB6)

typical weekend... all locals, all fun.  we use the sandbars near the inlet to escape the tourists.  Funny posting this pic, reminded me of something that happened that day- two dudes got in a fight, which is something that has happened only this once in the 6~7 years i've been going out there... the funny part was the younger guys started swinging on the older guy screaming "you beat up my Pa- three years ago!!"... was laughing too hard to intervene.. 

(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/935827_10151791210703755_374724309_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=6fa38f776213ae72017f08dbe2c80638&oe=5B96B1CC)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 17, 2018, 11:13:16 AM
You'll need one of these too (the boat):


boats are a huge drain on the 401K
but, you know this
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 07:07:29 PM
Boats are a hole in the water that you throw money into.

My boat's unofficial name is "Hole in the Wallet."

But I wouldn't want it any other way.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 17, 2018, 07:16:05 PM
I don't want to own a boat. 

I want more friends who own boats.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 09:09:55 PM
Yeah, I was the same way.  That works right up until you want to go out, and they don't.

Or you want to go out, and they've already got a boat full of girls-- that you wanted to hit on.

So I went and bought my own boat, so I could go out whenever I wanted, with whomever I wanted.  Including boats full of girls-- that I wanted to hit on.

And by the end of my second season with a boat, I was dating my i s c & a aggie wife.  :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 10:01:41 PM

"If it floats, flies or f#%&s, rent. Don't own." 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 10:09:49 PM
That's a good rule of thumb.

For poor people. :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 10:15:02 PM

They give that advice to NFL rookies so that they don't burn through all of their cash by the time they are 30. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 10:33:03 PM
The saying is much older than that.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 10:51:50 PM
Well the invention of the airplane does predate the NFL by a few years, so you might be right I suppose. :a035:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 17, 2018, 10:58:48 PM
How much were those NFL players making in 1903?

Yeah...
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2018, 11:12:00 PM
The planes back then weren't nearly as high tech as they are today, and the dollar was a lot stronger.


(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d0/04/49/d00449a04be330b780f3e35f21547e30.jpg)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 18, 2018, 12:01:43 AM
Looks like a modern-day high school science project, ffs
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2018, 07:30:00 AM
I rented a small boat in Hawaii a few years back, I guess it was a 15 footer, with two engines.  We took it out on the Pacific looking for whales.  The Pacific really isn't, even on a light day.  The wife was concerned about getting lost but it was only a 3 hour tour.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2018, 12:52:14 PM
a 15 footer in the pacific?

not me

I've fished countless hours in 15 foot boats on rivers, ponds, and small lakes

not even large lakes or  Reservoirs  - which I refer to as BIG water
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2018, 03:44:10 PM
(https://s.hdnux.com/photos/73/30/71/15568498/3/920x920.jpg)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on May 18, 2018, 03:58:17 PM
I know everyone wants me to care about the Pacific Ocean "garbage patch". 

And I do.

But I live near the ocean, and I never throw my trash in the ocean. It's not me, guys!

Maybe they should go after the people who are actually putting the trash in the ocean. I don't know how to fix the problem, personally. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2018, 04:26:22 PM
I'm ok with just raising general awareness of what our single-use packaging type of lifestyle is doing to our planet.  

But I completely agree if there's not some action proposed to follow, by people that are currently contributing to the problem, then it's going to end up being completely pointless.

What's the message, then?  Recycle those water bottles at higher rates?  If that's the message, then what's the action plan?  How do you get people to do it?  Put rebates on returns?   Something else?

Or is the message we should stop using this type of packaging altogether?  And if so, again what's actionable?  Are we messaging to manufacturers that they're going to have to end the practice?  To do this, do we place super-high taxes on all industries using single-use packaging, thus driving those products out of the market?

Right now I don't see much of a concerted effort to get a message that resonates, to the appropriate audience, with a plan that is reasonable and actionable.  Like so many other environmental concerns, I basically just continue to see, "Oh noes youse guys, humans are bad for the planet, stop doing what you're doing and be better humans!"

That's not targeted, it's not actionable, and you better be darn sure aware that it's not going to resonate with the people that are most important to creating change.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2018, 04:31:20 PM
18 billion pounds a year?  No wonder the oceans are rising on the coasts

that doesn't take into account all the rocks that fall into the ocean ;)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 18, 2018, 04:32:52 PM
Melting polar ice caps, yo.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 18, 2018, 04:44:53 PM
from this.............

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/17/611984631/banned-ozone-depleting-chemical-is-still-being-produced-somewhere-scientists-say (https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/17/611984631/banned-ozone-depleting-chemical-is-still-being-produced-somewhere-scientists-say)

Someone appears to be producing a banned ozone-depleting chemical, interfering with the recovery of Earth's damaged ozone layer, according to a newly published study led by scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The illicit emissions are believed to be coming from somewhere in eastern Asia, but nothing else is known about the offender. It's a scientific whodunit — or rather, a who's-doing-it.

"I think it's the most surprising thing I've seen in my 27 years of making measurements of trace gases in the atmosphere," Stephen Montzka, the study's lead author, tells NPR.

In the study, published in Nature on Wednesday, the scientists say the atmospheric level of trichlorofluoromethane, or CFC-11, is still dropping overall. But it's not declining as quickly as it should be.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 18, 2018, 05:09:44 PM
18 billion pounds a year?  No wonder the oceans are rising on the coasts

that doesn't take into account all the rocks that fall into the ocean ;)
Those coastal folk will finally have a chance to use their webbed hands and feet. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2018, 07:49:24 AM
China does a lot of bad shit.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2018, 08:19:41 AM
a 15 footer in the pacific?

not me

I've fished countless hours in 15 foot boats on rivers, ponds, and small lakes

not even large lakes or  Reservoirs  - which I refer to as BIG water
It did feel dinky, but it was a relatively calm day and of course we stayed 3-4 miles out max.
The wife was not happy apparently but didn't say anything until later.
I pushed the throttles up to max and the ride got very rough to I stay at about 3/4 when getting somewhere.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2018, 08:21:01 AM
Melting polar ice caps, yo.
Melting of the Arctic ice (or any floating ice) does not have much impact on ocean volume for obvious reasons.
It is glaciers or land based ice that does when it melts, along with warming of water, which is a large effect relatively also.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2018, 08:23:56 AM
Plastic getting into oceans is obviously an issue and the source is not well understood, but some of it is airborne litter.

And folks often point to various biodegradable plastics as a solution but they have significant problems as well.  I used to work in the area and it is complex putting it mildly and the current options are not good.

Our management made this "promise", actually several of them, to shareholders that we'd have a biodegradable diaper by time X and of course none of that happened at all, but we spent tens of millions on various stupid projects to "try", all of it for PR.

I got into trouble pointing out some very obvious things about all of this.  My own boss told me to shut up about it to protect me.  There were things "we" simply could not say or write.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 19, 2018, 09:09:25 AM
You can say and write it now, eh?

I'd read that book, and I hate reading.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2018, 09:21:12 AM
I came to realize that much of our R&D was to support our Public Relations efforts and nothing else.

And we spent a lot on R&D.  The company is in serious trouble today, but is so large it will take decades to really sink to K-Mart levels.  I spent my last 12 years on the sidelines, I couldn't take it any more.  I found a job "managing patents" that was still in R&D but I "worked" with the patent attorneys.  It was a complete sinecure, and I "worked" no more than an hour a week.

The hilarious thing is that when I left, they put TWO PEOPLE into that same job, they split my "role" and added another person to do it.  My boss was into Empire Building and was good at getting budget for more people, that was his sole motivation in life.  The folks who ran the budgets had no clue what we did but were told it was important, it wasn't.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on May 19, 2018, 12:35:34 PM
I'm actually pretty proud of some of the work that my very large computer corporation headquartered in the Austin metro area is doing regarding harvesting ocean-bound plastics and recycling into packaging.  It's a small dent but if if others follow suit it will start to have a major impact.  

The next step is harveting the actual floating plastics and that's obviously much more difficult, but they already have pilot programs in place that are successfully doing it. It's extremely expensive for now, but it won't always be.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2018, 01:01:52 PM
I saw something about buying some bracelet and some outfit would promise to remove one pound of plastic from the ocean somewhere.  The bracelet was $9.95 I think.

I then read something about how many pounds go into the oceans each year and did some quick math.

It was not even a scratch on the surface of what goes into the oceans, much less what is already there.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/05/plastics-facts-infographics-ocean-pollution/

18 BILLION pounds going into the oceans each year.  BILLION.  According to NatGeo.  I don't know if the figure is correct.

Global plastic production is said to be 335 million metric tons.  

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282732/global-production-of-plastics-since-1950/

So, only a small percentage of that ends up in the oceans, 2.4% if I did the math right.  I'm not convinced it is as high as 2.4% though.

These numbers are impossible to comprehend.

The story on rubber tires is similarly mind boggling.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2018, 06:45:16 PM
buddy of mine was looking into building an extremely high temp furnace to burn tires

along with the proper filters for the EPA

never happened

I'm certain the dollars didn't make cents
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Drew4UTk on May 19, 2018, 07:07:44 PM
When I first got oit of the corps and was going to school I worked at a tire recycler.  They shredded tires and shoved the scraps through a machine that tumbled them in nitrogen, making a dust of pure rubber that was sold to manufacturers... There was a cross belt magnet that extracted the metal and a wash that got most the nylon or Kevlar.  They had another machine that heated it in such a way it would turn into fibers (the rubber) and then adjoin the fibers to a mat of same material... They sold that as a ground cover for playgrounds and as antifatigue mats.  It could be dyed whatever color needed... 

They got paid by the gov to take the tires, and were paid by manufacturer's for the raw extracted rubber, then sold the metals and then those mats... They still managed to go bankrupt.  The owners sure didnt go bankrupt, just the business.  It was a great business model, bit ran by folks in it for the short game .
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on May 19, 2018, 07:19:49 PM
PR shouldn't matter, but the masses are idiots.  Didn't Sun Chips come out with a new, more biodegradable bag, but then had to switch back because the bag crumpled too loudly?  FFS  ~???
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2018, 07:41:22 AM
Burning tires is inherently a bad idea.  Tires are full of sulfur and sulfur is bad to burn pollution-wise.

Humans, especially Americans, want convenience at a low cost.  That is why we have so much plastic in things despite a rather few smallish efforts to mitigate this, and most of that is PR.  We go to a Whole Foods near us because the wife likes it and all I see there is a Kroger with better PR.

I suppose I'm pretty jaded about corporations claiming to "do good".  I see it as PR meant to enhance sales and attract millenials who want to feel good about themselves while not sacrificing any convenience or functionality.

And of course ANY plastic that ends up in landfill is not going to degrade.  ANY anything in a landfill is going to sit there entombed with very little degradation, and what happens is anaerobic and causes problems (methane).  Just view plastic as oil that was not burned for energy and so didn't contribute to CO2.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 20, 2018, 07:59:36 PM
W.L. Weller... that's the good stuff.  the 15yo bottle is two years shy of being the youngest Pappy Van Winkle.  same stuff in the barrel, just bottled sooner.  I prefer it over the Pappy- it seems to not have the absurd smoke flavor pappy has... i could be easily convinced the 23yo pappy has liquid smoke added. not that it's bad, it's not- it's just right... just not something you'd expect to encounter in a drink.  the weller doesn't suffer from that... it's just as good as the pappy but in a different way.  pappy with lessor smoke.  good stuff.
Two tears ago at a christmas party some family/friends and their in-laws(bourbon Snobs) were filling me in on the strange Pappy/Weller saga.Exhorting the nectars virtues -  there was an impressive assortment of fine spirits already on hand but no Pappy or Weller.I heard Weller can be had in Texas for a reasonable price but seemingly not above the Mason/Dixon.But I'd never no know as I've not seen it  and am not connected.But like so many of the gotta have craft beers it seems a bit of a let down after obtaining.Reminds me of the story on how those hi falutin' French & Napa Valley Vineyards got smoked by Two-Buck Chucks in that taste test twenty years back
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on May 20, 2018, 08:12:37 PM
The planes back then weren't nearly as high tech as they are today, and the dollar was a lot stronger.


(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d0/04/49/d00449a04be330b780f3e35f21547e30.jpg)


Wonder what that guy was thinking 1st time up - "Ah,what the hell does this lever do again ?"
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on May 20, 2018, 08:28:33 PM
he wasn't thonking, "boy, the stats on ultra-lights are horrible - hope I survive this trip"
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2018, 09:38:41 PM
Duane Arnold Energy Center in Palo, Iowa’s sole nuclear power plant, will shut down in late 2020, its owner announced Friday — five years sooner than the current power purchase agreement between NextEra Energy Resources and Alliant Energy.

That agreement, which requires approval from the Iowa Utilities Board, means the plant is expected to cease commercial operations in 2020, NextEra said.

Alliant’s agreement with NextEra originally was set to run until 2025.

“The eventual closing of the Duane Arnold Energy Center is a difficult decision because of the approximately 500 highly skilled men and women who consistently have made it one of the top-performing nuclear facilities in the county,” NextEra’s President and Chief Executive Officer Armando Pimentel said in the release.

Gradual drawdown
Duane Arnold, which first began producing power in 1975, is located about nine miles northwest of Cedar Rapids and is one of the larger employers in Linn County.

Florida-based NextEra said Friday it expects “a gradual reduction in staffing” at Duane Arnold over the next seven years.

The plant currently employs about 540 people, NextEra spokesman Peter Robbins said. NextEra estimates that when the plant shuts down and stops generating power in late 2020, it will need only about 300 employees.


Cheaper sources of energy
Officials for both Alliant and NextEra said the existence of cheaper forms of energy prompted the decision to close Duane Arnold.

Alliant spokesman Justin Foss said the market value of those other sources — primarily renewables such as Iowa’s growing wind portfolio — have dropped below the cost of nuclear generation.

“In our review of the cost for the energy that comes from that facility versus what you can buy it for and generate it for out in the market right now, it will save customers money by not getting it from that facility,” Foss told The Gazette Friday.

As part of the new agreement, Alliant will make a $110 million buyout payment to NextEra in September 2020. That payment, the companies said, will cover the costs of shortening the power purchase agreement by five years.

Alliant said it had planned to submit an application to the Iowa Utilities Board on Friday to receive approval for the buyout. The companies said the move should save Alliant’s customers about $300 million over 21 years, starting in 2020.

Savings for Alliant Energy customers will be reflected in the fuel cost portion of customers’ bills — representing about a three percent monthly savings, or about $42 a year — for residential customers starting in 2021, Foss said. Commercial and industrial customers will see a roughly 2.3 percent fuel cost savings.

NextEra owns a 70 percent stake in Duane Arnold, and 70 percent of the electricity produced there — about 430 megawatts — goes to Alliant. Des Moines-based Central Iowa Power Cooperative, or CIPCO, and Humboldt-based Corn Belt Power Cooperative own 20 percent and 10 percent stakes, respectively.

Under the new agreements, Alliant will purchase about 340 megawatts of energy from four existing NextEra-owned Iowa wind facilities.

“Partially replacing energy from Duane Arnold with NextEra’s additional wind investments in Iowa will bring significant economic benefits to our customers,” Patricia Kampling, chairwoman and chief executive officer of Alliant Energy, said in a Friday news release.

CIPCO, which also has an office in Cedar Rapids, said Friday it has “guarded optimism” about the shutdown of Duane Arnold. The cooperative said 35 percent of its energy portfolio currently comes from the nuclear plant.

“We’re trying to understand how we manage this in the short-term, but we believe long-term this will be a net benefit for us,” CIPCO Chief Executive Officer Bill Cherrier said to The Gazette.

Cherrier said CIPCO believes it will be able to find cheaper sources of energy through wind and other renewable sources.

NextEra also said Friday it expects to invest about $650 million in existing and new renewable generation facilities across Iowa by the end of 2020. About $250 million of that, Robbins said, will come from “re-powering,” or upgrading” NextEra’s existing wind turbines in Iowa.

WHAT HAPPENS AT THE PLANT?

After Duane Arnold shuts down and stops energy production in late 2020, the plant will have to go through a decommissioning process.

That process will include moving fuel rods from the plant’s reactor to a spent fuel pool, where it will cool for four to five years, Robbins explained.

Once the rods are cool, they will be moved to dry storage at Duane Arnold.

It was not clear Friday if or when the nuclear plant site could be redeveloped, given the length of the decommissioning process. NextEra did say it is “evaluating redevelopment opportunities” there, including building new solar energy, battery storage or natural gas facilities.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on July 30, 2018, 04:38:38 PM
The ocean plastic is mostly Asian fishing gear apparently.  Little is from the US.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on July 30, 2018, 06:46:11 PM
not straws from the San Fran bay area?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on July 30, 2018, 06:56:17 PM
I saw that in a Nat Geo article a while back. Cited a percentage just under 50% from fishing gear. They made a disclaimer that it's an extrapolation from limited surveys. I was still surprised as far as expectations go. They inferred that the Japanese tsunami of 2011 rolled a meaningful fraction all on its own.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2018, 09:11:07 AM
My French cousins have been complaining about the weather.  The wife gets streaming classical music on a French "station" and they have 5 minutes of news on the hour.  Much of the country is seeing high Ts of 40°C or more.

And homes there are rarely air conditioned, at least in the northern half anyway.

The summer here has been excellent, for me and the wife.  Humidity has been quite low usually and the highest high has been about 92°F, with 50% RH, which is not bad in the shade.

We've had maybe two days where I really suffered being outside for more than 3 minutes.  My wife's best friend is flying up from Brazil in early Sept and my step son and daughter are also visiting from SF and France, so it should be a busy time.  The weather here about then can be still hot of course but also can be in the 80s and pleasant, blue sky, etc.

The wife wants to go to Brazil in November and I just remarked "Well that is football season of course.".

February would be better for me I think.

At least we have a nonstop from here now.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2018, 09:18:20 AM
I may have mentioned this before, but I have looked in vain for a "plan" to reduce CO2 emissions that has at least a modicum of detail, like:

1.  How much we must reduce emissions to reach a climate goal of X (using a composite model).
2.  How that can be done by shutting down Y fossil fuel sources and replacing them with whatever.
3.  This would cost $Z over however many years.

I suspect the reason I can't find such an outline is obvious.

What I find instead is glowing articles about how wind and solar have expanded by 194% over the past 5 years, which omits a rather important detail.  And then articles about how Germany has been going backwards despite glowing articles that they produced more power by solar than needed one day whenever.

The attitude by most French folks about nuclear is they don't want to think about it right now.



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 05, 2018, 01:41:48 PM
Wow sounds like we've had more 90 deg days here in N.E.Ohio by the lake
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 05, 2018, 02:38:21 PM
It has been hotter and more humid in Cincy than here nearly every time I checked but one.

It's 91°F here and 53% RH and sunny.  We were headed to the pool but the wife I think took a nap.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2018, 03:56:00 PM
In June, the Iowa Utilities Board verified that MidAmerican Energy Company delivered more than half – 50.8% – of our electricity from renewable sources in 2017. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 09, 2018, 07:13:57 PM
Iowa still gets over half its electricity from coal.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 10, 2018, 09:30:24 AM
yup, converting the coal plants to natural gas now

assuming this report is the portion that MidAmerican Energy Company delivers to Iowa
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on August 10, 2018, 09:42:32 AM
The new economist magazine focuses on climate change.... if anyone is interested...
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2018, 12:23:15 PM
Some pics from in front of my house last Thursday of the Holy Fire. Named because it started in "Holy Jim Canyon". There a nice hiking trail back there that takes you to Holy Jim Falls, and then with an offshoot to get to Santiago Peak, the highest elevation point in Orange County.

Apparently the fire was started by a resident back there. There are a couple of historic cabins along the beginning of the hiking trail. Supposedly a resident was upset with a neighbor, and started a fire. Sadly, in addition to all those historic cabins being burned, apparently due to it being deemed a fire/flood risk there can be no reconstruction. So some jacka$$ is now responsible for putting all his neighbors out of home.

Thursday was the worst day of it near me. We don't live close enough to the wilderness that we were ever in real danger, but on Thursday the wind shifted and blew the smoke our direction. After Thursday, the wind shifted back to the typical direction (coming onshore from the West) and pushed the fire back towards the East.

The fire is now only 59% contained, and threatens housing in Riverside County in the Lake Elsinore area. 

Looking East.

<br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/dWe5Lp/IMAG1339_20180814_091254716.jpg) (https://ibb.co/dWe5Lp)<br />

Looking West.

<br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/h4OAmU/IMAG1340_20180814_0912566.jpg) (https://ibb.co/h4OAmU)<br />
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on August 14, 2018, 12:25:01 PM
has that neighbor been arrested yet?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2018, 12:33:31 PM
has that neighbor been arrested yet?
The arsonist has been arrested, yes.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2018, 12:46:59 PM
I'd burn him at the stake
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2018, 12:47:31 PM
I assume "Holy Jim" was a man of the cloth?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2018, 01:26:08 PM
I assume "Holy Jim" was a man of the cloth?
Nah... Revisionist history. His original nickname was "Cussin' Jim". (http://www.orangecoast.com/stuff-we-love/q-holy-jim-holy-jim-canyon-fame/) 

Quote
In 1888, decidedly unsaintly Union veteran James Smith bought land in a remote canyon between Santiago Peak and Trabuco Creek.(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.orangecoast.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fsites%2F17%2F2017%2F02%2Fholy_jim_canyon-106x300.jpg&hash=e4d7c6d4c6b0a03def2621a8d2359ac1) (http://cdn.orangecoast.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2017/02/holy_jim_canyon.jpg) He lived there with his wife, Hat, and raised bees. Although reasonably even-tempered, Smith swore frequently, loudly, long-windedly, creatively, and without regard for the company he was in. Historian Jim Sleeper wrote that Smith could “cuss the devil into a bottle and screw on the cap.” Smith usually sported a hat with an upturned brim, a walrus mustache, a jacket with a big plug of tobacco in the pocket, and no shirt. He earned the nicknames “Greasy Jim” and “Cussin’ Jim.” In 1900, government cartographers named the canyon for its best-known resident, but some bureaucrat in Washington undoubtedly changed “Cussin’ ” to “Holy.” About eight years later, Smith retired to Santa Ana. As an old man, he’d get lost downtown and sheriff’s deputies would give him a lift. Jim swore all the way home.

The way I've read it, apparently even the use of the term "Cussin'" was considered cussing back in those days, so they changed it. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on August 14, 2018, 02:29:28 PM
great find on that story... lol
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2018, 03:31:50 PM
some bureaucrat in Washington was screwing things up since 1900
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2018, 05:13:55 PM
great find on that story... lol
Yeah, I was already familiar with the story... I've done that hike a few times to the falls. It's a great little hike with kids, because it's only about 1.5 miles out, 1.5 back, without huge elevation gain. 
I think it's probably now going to be closed--maybe for years--while the canyon recovers.
So if I find that arsonist, I'm gonna go "holy" on him lol...
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 14, 2018, 05:51:18 PM
I heard on the radio that he stands to be punished with life in prison.


It would be better to burn him, if found guilty.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 14, 2018, 09:41:01 PM
I saw a Chevy Tahoe in Lake Tahoe today.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 15, 2018, 08:43:34 AM
Holy/Cussin Jim sounds like a Browns Fan
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 15, 2018, 08:44:40 AM
I heard on the radio that he stands to be punished with life in prison.


It would be better to burn him, if found guilty.
Give him a fair trial followed by a 1st class hanging
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2018, 09:12:22 AM
lethal injection seemed to work in Nebraska yesterday
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on August 15, 2018, 11:37:20 AM
Good Point,pun intended
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2018, 11:42:19 AM
some folks in my office yesterday were watching the live stream of the execution........

video simply showed the double doors of the execution room - nothing more

fascinating!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2018, 01:52:06 PM
Scientists have found a rapid way of producing magnesite, a mineral which stores carbon dioxide. If this can be developed to an industrial scale, it opens the door to removing CO2 from the atmosphere for long-term storage, thus countering the global warming effect of atmospheric CO2. This work is presented at the Goldschmidt conference in Boston.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-08-scientists-mineral-co2-atmosphere.html#jCp
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 15, 2018, 02:40:47 PM
Scientists have found a rapid way of producing magnesite, a mineral which stores carbon dioxide. If this can be developed to an industrial scale, it opens the door to removing CO2 from the atmosphere for long-term storage, thus countering the global warming effect of atmospheric CO2. This work is presented at the Goldschmidt conference in Boston.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-08-scientists-mineral-co2-atmosphere.html#jCp
Interesting. I have long been curious who'd outpace who, the material scientists or the biochemists trying to take the most common protein in the world (Ribulose-1,5-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/Oxygenase) and let engineered evolution do the work for them. Both sides have some serious obstacles. With this "magnesite" for example, I can't imagine it'll be easy or obvious what to do with that mass of it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on August 15, 2018, 10:14:23 PM
Interesting. I have long been curious who'd outpace who, the material scientists or the biochemists trying to take the most common protein in the world (Ribulose-1,5-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/Oxygenase) and let engineered evolution do the work for them. Both sides have some serious obstacles. With this "magnesite" for example, I can't imagine it'll be easy or obvious what to do with that mass of it.
from Wikipedia....
Uses[edit (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Magnesite&action=edit&section=3)]
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5e/Dyed_magnesite_beads.jpg/170px-Dyed_magnesite_beads.jpg) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyed_magnesite_beads.jpg)
 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyed_magnesite_beads.jpg)
Dyed and polished magnesite beads
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Magnesite_of_Salem.jpg/220px-Magnesite_of_Salem.jpg) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Magnesite_of_Salem.jpg)
 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Magnesite_of_Salem.jpg)
Magnesite of Salem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salem,_Tamil_Nadu)
Similar to the production of lime, magnesite can be burned in the presence of charcoal to produce MgO (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MgO), which, in the form of a mineral, is known as periclase (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periclase). Large quantities of magnesite are burnt to make magnesium oxide (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesium_oxide): an important refractory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refractory) material used as a lining in blast furnaces (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blast_furnace), kilns (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiln) and incinerators (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incinerators). Calcination temperatures determine the reactivity of resulting oxide products and the classifications of light burnt and dead burnt refer to the surface area and resulting reactivity of the product, typically as determined by an industry metric of the iodine number. 'Light burnt' product generally refers to calcination commencing at 450 °C and proceeding to an upper limit of 900 °C - which results in good surface area and reactivity. Above 900 °C, the material loses its reactive crystalline structure and reverts to the chemically inert 'dead-burnt' product- which is preferred for use in refractory materials such as furnace linings.
Magnesite can also be used as a binder in flooring material (magnesite screed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesite_screed)).[15] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesite#cite_note-15) Furthermore, it is being used as a catalyst and filler in the production of synthetic rubber (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_rubber) and in the preparation of magnesium chemicals and fertilizers.
In fire assay, magnesite cupels can be used for cupellation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cupellation) as the magnesite cupel will resist the high temperatures involved.
Magnesite can be cut, drilled, and polished to form beads that are used in jewelry-making. Magnesite beads can be dyed into a broad spectrum of bold colors, including a light blue color that mimics the appearance of turquoise (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turquoise).
Research is proceeding to evaluate the practicality of sequestering the greenhouse gas (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas) carbon dioxide (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) in magnesite on a large scale[16] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesite#cite_note-16).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on August 15, 2018, 11:03:32 PM
lethal injection seemed to work in Nebraska yesterday
I was a freshman when they last executed a man in NE.  Otey.  Forget his first name.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 10:39:49 AM
The problem with pulling CO2 out of the air is interestingly enough one of entropy (and enthalpy of course).  You have an "impurity" that is about 400 ppm in a something and you want some portion of that impurity.  Just on general principles, that is going to take a lot of energy, somehow.

You can do it of course with caustic, like KOH, but it takes energy to generate KOH.  And then you have K2CO3 to dispose of in some protected environment.  And even this process takes a while depending on surface area, so you have kinetics to ponder as well.

You can of course cool the air down to the temperature of dry ice, but that takes energy.  Then you have to manage the dry ice.


Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 01:23:53 PM
No doubt. And on the RuBisCO side of things, there are similar challenges, engineering the enzyme as more of a carboxylase (less of an oxygenase) - both an entropy and enthalpy challenge. And then there's a matter of yield (also a surface area challenge, whether the chosen vehicle is a leaf or unicellular). 
And then finally there's the matter of product stability, which for RuBisCO strategies is probably the tallest obstacle. All photosynthesizers, for example, are professional fixers of carbon. But they also die in relatively short order and are consumed by organisms that engage cellular respiration, and that permits molar equivalents of CO2 to return to the atmosphere. That's why we say these plants are part of the carbon cycle. Which plants leave the carbon cycle? Well so far it's only been the rare ones that fall into stagnant swamps and ultimately find their chemical makeup held in tact as the earth changes over geological time and they find themselves under countable layers of stone. 
That detail has always made the RuBisCO strategy seem farfetched to me. But even then, engineering the enzyme to be a better carboxylase could have a lot to say about feeding humans in a world where climate change increasingly limits crop yields.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 02:10:02 PM
And we have these things called "plants" which already "fix" CO2 as biomass.  All we need to do is plant these plants and then bury the biomass where it will not degrade.

I bet no artificial system is nearly as efficient in use of energy and space.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 02:11:03 PM
When I look at a tree, I marvel at how most of it is water and a minor component extracted from the air.  A very minor component (400 ppm or so).  And the tree manages to turn that into stuff.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 02:27:38 PM
Yeah, I think another common misconception about trees is that they get that mass from the dirt/soil. Fascinating how they don't. 

To me, an even more fascinating thing about trees is that, no matter the thin diameter of their xylem and what you'd think of the power of capillary action, those tubes are too tall to maintain a continuous water column in trees of even moderate height. The water in those tubes actually experiences negative pressure. How? Transpiration is part of it, but the real magic has to do with the micro-sized pores on the leaves through which water vapor can escape. Those are small enough that water surface tension can hold a constant barrier. If they were so large that surface tension couldn't maintain the barrier, the negatively pressurized water column would boil right out of those trees.
Sometimes that actually happens. Maybe you've gone on a hike during an extreme drought and noticed that an empty forest is making strange, loud, cracking, echoing noises. That can be due to cavitation in these tubes. And, if you were able to find the corresponding trees, mark them, and return in a matter of time, you'd notice that either the entire tree died, or at least a segment of its trunk (and relevant branches) did.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 02:31:05 PM
And we have these things called "plants" which already "fix" CO2 as biomass.  All we need to do is plant these plants and then bury the biomass where it will not degrade.

I bet no artificial system is nearly as efficient in use of energy and space.
Our eyes would probably bug if we saw a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the size of the hole it would take to bury enough of them in.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 03:27:32 PM
That could be, but whatever is used to extract CO2 from the air has to be stored somewhere.  Trees contain quite a bit of carbon, basically C6H12O6 of course, or one carbon atom for each water molecule (hence "carbohydrate"), or 12 grams of carbon plus 18 grams of water.  Yes, there is lignin, but it is higher in carbon.

So, a dead tree is a rather efficient repository of carbon on a mass basis.  What else out there is 6/15ths carbon?  Coal obviously, and diamond, but diamond or graphite are not realistic options.

I'll got with buried trees.  Now the calculation on how much fuel would be needed to transport that many gigatons of dead trees to salt mines or the like is probably imposing.

In a sanitary landfill can can find hot dog buns intact that are 20+ years old.  We could landfill the lot.

Or make plastic out of trees which won't biodegrade.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2018, 03:33:03 PM
always heard about the hot dogs themselves being preserved, but not the buns
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 03:47:17 PM
There is, or was, a "garbologist" at Arizona (or State) who would study cores of sanitary landfills.  He told us they dated the material by reading newspapers at that depth.  Nearly everything would be preserved in a sanitary landfill, hence the name.  In some areas, some water would seep in sufficient to start some anaerobic decomposition (or aerobic in some cases).  The landfills have to collect the methane now and flare it off (usually).  

He had quite the fascinating presentation, been 25 years since I saw one I guess.  I used to work developing bioidegradable polymers.  Trying to anyway, not a whole lot of luck.  The ones that biodegraded did so too quickly to be useful.  We had one that was pretty decent for a day but a few hours in the light and it crumbled to dust, interesting stuff.  So we loaded it up with light stabilizers and it wouldn't degrade, no happy middle ground we ever found.

Fun project, amounted to squat but some useless patents.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 04:10:48 PM
Or make plastic out of trees which won't biodegrade.
Most people would roll their eyes at the idea that plastic could be our answer, but I think that's compelling:
Making plastic not out of oil refinery or natural gas products (something that had been outside of the active carbon cycle) but out of something (trees) that is still within the carbon cycle.
EDIT: though it does rely on that premise "won't biodegrade." And technically our current plastic products do degrade. I think the ones you compellingly proposed would have to be far more stable than styrofoam, for example, to qualify the carbon as having been removed from the carbon cycle. And...I'm not optimistic about that. I know you aren't optimistic about re-mineralizing carbon. But I'm thinking either we mineralize it (impossible?) and keep it at the surface or bury aliphatic/aromatic (less stable) versions deep into the crust.

EDIT2: Perhaps the aspect of "freighting" and "burying" "trees" that seems so impractical could be fixed by switching organisms. Place an industrial scale bioremediation complex near each defunct salt or coal mine and pump in a steady stream of cyanobacteria then sealant then cyanobacteria then sealant.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 04:30:07 PM
Bacteria and algae etc. usually need air to stay alive, which means turbulence in the growth medium of some sort.

Then you have to filter the gunk, which isn't easy to do at scale (or even in the lab).  You can spin it down of course but that requires energy too.

Converting cellulose to "plastic" is not easy either, though we make rayon that way.  There was a lot of interest in polylactic acid back in the day but that seems to have waned.  

I would look at a fast growing tree like eucalyptus for fixing carbon and then finding a means to store it somewhere.

Charmin toilet paper is mostly eucalyptus, but it degrades.  That is why it is so linty.  Paper towels end up usually in landfill, so we could make more paper towels and writing paper.  But that alas takes energy too.

Writing paper often is about 20% inorganic "filler" like calcium carbonate, which also fixes CO2.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 04:32:06 PM
That could be, but whatever is used to extract CO2 from the air has to be stored somewhere.  Trees contain quite a bit of carbon, basically C6H12O6 of course, or one carbon atom for each water molecule (hence "carbohydrate"), or 12 grams of carbon plus 18 grams of water.  Yes, there is lignin, but it is higher in carbon.

So, a dead tree is a rather efficient repository of carbon on a mass basis.  What else out there is 6/15ths carbon?
I think the lignin (20-35% by mass depending on the tree) does shift the carbon balance significantly above that 6/15 fraction.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 04:37:21 PM
Yes, we could call if half, aside from the unbound water that would be in a tree, and be close enough.

That is better than calcium carbonate.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 04:38:19 PM
There is, or was, a "garbologist" at Arizona (or State) who would study cores of sanitary landfills.  He told us they dated the material by reading newspapers at that depth.  Nearly everything would be preserved in a sanitary landfill, hence the name.  In some areas, some water would seep in sufficient to start some anaerobic decomposition (or aerobic in some cases).  The landfills have to collect the methane now and flare it off (usually).  

He had quite the fascinating presentation, been 25 years since I saw one I guess.  I used to work developing bioidegradable polymers.  Trying to anyway, not a whole lot of luck.  The ones that biodegraded did so too quickly to be useful.  We had one that was pretty decent for a day but a few hours in the light and it crumbled to dust, interesting stuff.  So we loaded it up with light stabilizers and it wouldn't degrade, no happy middle ground we ever found.

Fun project, amounted to squat but some useless patents.
I have no doubt that landfills delay degradation. But by which extent - a matter of a hundred years? Thousands? I'm just not sure it's enough to be part of a global solution.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 04:44:45 PM
Bacteria and algae etc. usually need air to stay alive, which means turbulence in the growth medium of some sort.

Then you have to filter the gunk, which isn't easy to do at scale (or even in the lab).  You can spin it down of course but that requires energy too.
Those prone to film formation will settle out of suspension without need for centrifugation. And I was speculating about the possibility of pumping it into a pit/mine already in the process of dying, much like the trees would be. Hence the need for serial sealant application.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2018, 05:52:39 PM
Most people would roll their eyes at the idea that plastic could be our answer, but I think that's compelling:
Making plastic not out of oil refinery or natural gas products (something that had been outside of the active carbon cycle) but out of something (trees) that is still within the carbon cycle.
So... I'm supposed to use plastic straws to SAVE the planet now? 
:smiley_confused1:
:57:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 05:56:32 PM
Plastic usually comes from oil, or natural gas.  If you burn =oil, you get CO2 obviously (and water).  If you make it into a polymer, you usually turn it into something that will not biodegrade or otherwise degrade for quite a long time.

Our landfills are loaded with trapped carbon.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2018, 06:41:09 PM
Plastic usually comes from oil, or natural gas.  If you burn =oil, you get CO2 obviously (and water).  If you make it into a polymer, you usually turn it into something that will not biodegrade or otherwise degrade for quite a long time.

Our landfills are loaded with trapped carbon.


I'd call it delayed carbon. It's only trapped on the time scale of one or a few human lives. Swamped trees locked in stone are trapped on geologic time. By comparison, being trapped for a few thousand years (and though I'm no "garbologist," I think that number could be generous) isn't being removed from the carbon cycle. It wouldn't even be older than the oldest tree.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 06:47:01 PM
I'd GUESS polyethylene in a landfill would be stable for 1,000 years before degrading into methane.  Either way, we don't make enough plastic for this to be a real factor as compared with how much oil and coal we burn.

The figure I saw is that 5-6% of petroleum goes into chemicals, and less than 1% coal.

The rest is burned.

But, yes, plastic in landfill is far from a very long term "expedient".

I like that phrase, a "long term expedient".
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2018, 08:23:12 AM
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34872

This is pretty clear about the replacement of coal with NG and impact on CO2 emissions in the US and why they are down significantly since 2010.  NG produces about 65% as much CO2 per thermal unit as coal.

"From 2005 to 2017, coal-related CO2 emissions declined by 835 million metric tons (39%), and petroleum-related CO2 emissions declined by 289 million metric tons (11%). Natural gas emissions, however, increased by 285 million metric tons (24%) over that period. The underlying energy consumption trends that resulted in these changes—mainly because more electricity has been generated from natural gas than from other fossil fuels—have helped to lower the U.S. emissions level since 2005 because natural gas is a less carbon-intensive fuel than either coal or petroleum."
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on August 22, 2018, 08:29:27 AM
China emits over twice as much CO2 as the US.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2018, 08:30:57 AM
So, if magically, all coal burning (other than for steel production) were replaced with NG, the 1200 million metric tons of CO2 would drop to about 800 million tons.

It would be difficult to replace that capacity with "wind and solar" quickly (or nuclear of course).

A crash program to build more nuclear plants to replace all coal fired plants could make a dent in ten years if funded (expensively) and tolerable to the public (not) and based on a single plant design.

There are two new reactors under construction down here, but that is it for nuclear in the US, and old plants are being decommissioned.

The global CO2 emissions are about 40 billion metric tons per year.  So, if the US replaced all coal with something carbon neutral, that would drop to about 37.8 billion tons, which isn't enough to offset the growth in global CO2 emissions.

That sort of highlights the main issue here, the shear scale of CO2 emissions globally, and the upward trend that is going to continue despite whatever papers are signed.  China and India are supposed to cap by 2030, but that simply isn't nearly enough.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 02:06:45 PM
https://apnews.com/3f7f6cab367a489fb41d728f8a69f63b (https://apnews.com/3f7f6cab367a489fb41d728f8a69f63b)

Increasing bouts of extreme heat waves and drought will hurt production of barley, a key beer ingredient, in the future. Losses of barley yield can be as much as 17 percent, an international group of researchers estimated.

That means beer prices on average would double, even adjusting for inflation, according to the study in Monday’s journal Nature Plants . In countries like Ireland, where cost of a brew is already high, prices could triple.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2018, 02:13:35 PM
NNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on October 15, 2018, 02:24:05 PM
well... that will get middle america's attention.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 15, 2018, 02:36:31 PM
The wine industry perhaps faces a more serious issue with this.  One can in principle ship hops production a bit north to compensate in many cases, but the terroir so influential in wine production may not allow that.  Sensitive varietals like pinot noir could just have to be ended in terms of production.

I still sense all these predictions mostly fall on deaf ears.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2018, 02:59:05 PM
https://apnews.com/3f7f6cab367a489fb41d728f8a69f63b (https://apnews.com/3f7f6cab367a489fb41d728f8a69f63b)

Increasing bouts of extreme heat waves and drought will hurt production of barley, a key beer ingredient, in the future. Losses of barley yield can be as much as 17 percent, an international group of researchers estimated.

That means beer prices on average would double, even adjusting for inflation, according to the study in Monday’s journal Nature Plants . In countries like Ireland, where cost of a brew is already high, prices could triple.
about 6 years back there was a blight with Hops crop.Micro's price definitely spiked and never returned to the original prices.Brewers never seemed as greedy as the rest of the market,evidently that has changed
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 03:51:51 PM
hopefully the stock market will rebound before I retire so's I can afford beer
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 15, 2018, 05:54:13 PM
Speculative reporting.

They're not saying there's going to be a drought next year and we're all going to pay through the nose for beer.

They're saying that if you run through a bunch of climate change models, some of them result in drought and extreme heat scenarios which affect barley production, and thus beer prices.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0263-1

Abstract:

Quote
Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions.

It suggests that even if there is a change, we're talking about long-term adjustment periods. It might just mean that we get more malted barley from Canada.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2018, 06:06:35 PM
Well if 94,Fearless,Bwarb and myself go on the wagon we'll bring these bastards around.OK you guys go 1st
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 08:01:18 PM
it's a scare tactic, but I ain't scared

Fearless is having another beer while watching the Brew Crew battle the Dodgers

It was 28 degrees here this morning
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2018, 08:40:21 PM
I just had a Winter Warmer left over from last year,fine suds
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2018, 08:45:57 PM
I just had a Winter Warmer left over from last year,fine suds
Nice.  I'm out of Oktoberfests/Marzen, so I cracked one of my last few Leffe Brune.  Delicious.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 08:51:50 PM
drink up fellas, prices are going up!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 15, 2018, 10:10:15 PM
drink up fellas, prices are going up!
I'll just have to spend more time at the LO brewery, where for me, it's always free. :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 10:21:02 PM
I will dern sure figure out a way to keep drinking

How bad could it get in 40 years?  I'll be 96 at that time.  If I'm extremely lucky.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on October 15, 2018, 11:30:19 PM
i just had a hoppy wheat by Boulevard to celebrate the Crew's 4-0 victory.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 15, 2018, 11:42:50 PM
Not to hijack the thread, but I figured this might be a good place to make my first post in awhile. In case you all were wondering, I ended up in a rehab back in March because my parents thought I might be alcoholic (so of course this has turned into a beer thread) and then a longer-term place until finally getting out last week. I'm probably not alcoholic but am giving sobriety a chance for now. It was certainly a frustrating but humbling experience.

Fortunately, I got a decent contract job back in DC in the energy sector and I was also able to start some interesting freelance work I had on hold since March that's going well, so I think I'm finally in a good situation career-wise. That won't leave with me with nearly as much downtime as I've had in the past, so I probably won't be posting here nearly as often, but it'll be good to be busy.

Thankfully, I was still able to watch a lot of college football, so I've been enjoying that, especially with how Michigan has been playing.

As for the original topic, as I've said before on the energy side of things, renewables are going to win out over time. Coal has already peaked with no new plants compared to a wave of retirements in the US and elsewhere. Gas generation is just the intermediate solution. A big reason that GE has tanked is that they bet too hard on fossil fuel technologies. Electrification (and automation) of the transportation sector (among others) is about to take off (Tesla's problems aside), which will help lower the cost of batteries and potentially other energy storage technologies, which will make it even easier to integrate renewables, and consequently the oil industry will start going downhill, too. Not to get political, but everything that Trump has done and is trying to do to prevent this is only delaying the inevitable transition. The economics are what matter most, of course. The big wildcard is the potential of small-scale nuclear systems, if they become economical. I'm skeptical of that in the short-term but we'll see. Waste-to-energy becoming a player is more plausible, though....
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on October 15, 2018, 11:47:04 PM
Thanks for the note, good to see you post here tonight.   I wish you the very best, and hope things continue to improve.  We're all one day at a time.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on October 16, 2018, 12:28:56 AM
Not only has Phoenix already had its wettest October on record (as of Oct 13th) but it's been much cooler than average most of the month as well. Forecasted high temp tomorrow in the mid to upper 60s, a good 20 degrees below the average high for the date (88 degrees). 

I'm not complaining. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 16, 2018, 08:29:58 AM
The problem with coal is that it provides about a third of our electricity now.  Wind and solar are at around 7% or so.  Even if they double, well, you can do the math.  They would need to go up 5x or more to replace coal.  That simply won't happen near term.

And of course this is just in the US, not talking about China and India who have a free run under the Paris agreement until 2030.

I don't see a viable "solution" that gets here fast enough.  The Paris Accords are likely unattainable at the same time as being not enough.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 16, 2018, 09:07:52 AM
Not only has Phoenix already had its wettest October on record (as of Oct 13th) but it's been much cooler than average most of the month as well. Forecasted high temp tomorrow in the mid to upper 60s, a good 20 degrees below the average high for the date (88 degrees).

I'm not complaining.
Similar story here, SDF.  Record cool temps and record rain from early September through today.  Major flooding on the Llano River as we speak, it's risen 40' in about 12 hours.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2018, 09:10:11 AM
drink up fellas, prices are going up!
There has to be a plan of attack,these guys are raking it in and just getting stoopid greedy.Guess I'll have to move to Austin and pull up a barstool next to 94.Or I could quit  quaffing......hmmm
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2018, 09:13:06 AM
 Major flooding on the Llano River as we speak, it's risen 40' in about 12 hours.  
40 ft?Holy Hell that's wrath of God type stuff.Is there a lot of development around that river or is it tucked away back in some canyon?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on October 16, 2018, 09:29:49 AM
the good news for Hoss is Zima's will remain cheap
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2018, 11:09:12 AM
Not to hijack the thread, but I figured this might be a good place to make my first post in awhile. In case you all were wondering, I ended up in a rehab back in March because my parents thought I might be alcoholic (so of course this has turned into a beer thread) and then a longer-term place until finally getting out last week. I'm probably not alcoholic but am giving sobriety a chance for now. It was certainly a frustrating but humbling experience.
I gave sobriety a couple chances back in the day.  Once for less than a year, court ordered.  The 2nd time for almost 4 years to try to save my marriage.
I certainly learned a lot about myself and think it was a good process to go through although hard work.
Keep an open mind and keep working hard.  Sobriety certainly won't hurt you.  Good luck.  Glad to hear you're doing well.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2018, 11:10:10 AM
record rainfall here in Iowa this summer

I blame Bobby Stoops
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2018, 01:38:38 PM
Since when does kicking puppies in Oklahoma translate to rain in Iowa?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: grillrat on October 16, 2018, 01:52:40 PM
Well, you kick a puppy, he Yelps loudly, spewing a little more CO2 into the air.  The culmination of mass-puppy-kickings leads to a changing climate that results in more rain.  Perfectly reasonable.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 16, 2018, 01:59:25 PM
Could be fearless belching at the 19th hole doing the same thing.Thanx for the explanation sometimes I get in over my head
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2018, 02:54:53 PM
well, Bobby was a D-back for Hayden back in the day in Iowa City.

so, there's your connection to Iowa.

(https://dataomaha.com/media/husker_history/game-photos/Iowa_1982_photo.jpg)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on October 16, 2018, 03:27:40 PM
40 ft?Holy Hell that's wrath of God type stuff.Is there a lot of development around that river or is it tucked away back in some canyon?
Not a ton of development, it's not like Houston building in the bayous or New Orleans building below sea level.
It's just a massive amount of rain in a short time, in an area that's already been pretty well soaked over the past 4-5 weeks, so runoff was pretty much immediate.
It's definitely biblical.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 18, 2018, 10:57:09 PM
Fearless - Thanks for the response to my post. There's certainly changes I need to make in my life, too, unrelated to drinking.

As for the topic, wind and solar have been and will continue to grow exponentially with continued cost reductions. In fact, the vast majority of power plants currently under construction or planned are wind and solar farms. The US is just starting to develop offshore wind projects, as well, which Europe has been doing for awhile now. In fact, the UK has halved its electricity generation from fossil fuels in the past 12 years, and California uses little if any coal and recently mandated it has to shut down its gas generators by 2045 with the 50% renewable portfolio standard while the remaining have to come from other carbon-free generation sources. Most other states can economically do the same if they want to.

The latest reports about climate change are saying that limiting it to 1.5 degrees Celsius is economically feasible with existing technologies. The solution is essentially to deploy more wind and solar, continue energy efficiency improvements, and electrify as much as possible, particularly in the transportation sector.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on October 19, 2018, 02:43:42 AM
Fearless - Thanks for the response to my post. There's certainly changes I need to make in my life, too, unrelated to drinking.

The solution is essentially to deploy more wind and solar, continue energy efficiency improvements, and electrify as much as possible, particularly in the transportation sector.
My wife, 23-year old grad student daughter, and I drove past the local wind farm in NE Iowa to Taco Thursday in Osterdock. There were quite a few people in this unincorporated village that consists of a restaurant in a metal building in the middle of nowhere. There must have been a town here 100-years ago.
My diesel BMW got us here. I hope within 20 years if I am still able, I can drive an electric SUV to the skeletal remains of this great family restaurant, or to Taco Thursday.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Hawkinole on October 19, 2018, 02:48:03 AM
Better yet, I hope I can drive an electric VW Microbus here in 10 years, and my life will come full circle to the day I chauffeured Ramsey Clarke around Tallahassee, and inspire Iowans in the middle of nowhwere.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 19, 2018, 09:15:37 AM
Had to look up Ramsey Clarke,thought he might have been a country music singer
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2018, 12:57:44 PM
I don't think electrical output from wind power is growing exponentially, unless that exponent is rather small.

It's projected to doubt from 2013 to 2020, which is great. By 2030, it is projected to increase from 113 to 224, and then 450 by 2050 (GW).

The main problem is coal, and that won't replace our current coal generation capabilities, much less growth.  Coal today is about 1,230 on that same scale.  Wind is about 6% or so now, so a 4x increase by 2050 would get that to 25% maybe, still not enough to replace all of coal, much less NG.  

The numbers just don't work nearly as I can see.  We could have some crash program for nukes, but that ain't happening.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2018, 01:04:26 PM
Fearless - Thanks for the response to my post. There's certainly changes I need to make in my life, too, unrelated to drinking.

.
I certainly wish you all the best (now that last Saturday's nightmare is over :03:). 
I was just thinking about you the other day, wondering where you've been. Don't be a stranger. This place can be therapy too.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 19, 2018, 01:06:24 PM
Fall finally arrived, sort of, around here.  It was a bit chilly last night, in the 40s.  I went running around 11 AM and it was cool, but not for running.

It feels like football weather.  The leaves are just starting to tinge.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 19, 2018, 05:54:45 PM
I'm coming down there Booker
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 20, 2018, 01:30:58 AM
This place can definitely be therapeutic. I'm eager to get back to working next week though.

Here's a decent article about the growth of renewables and what still needs to happen. Maybe it is a bit optimistic, unfortunately, but most people have been underestimating the rise of growth of renewables and the demise of coal for awhile:

https://www.vice.com/en_au/article/a3p8w5/solar-power-could-still-save-the-world

Electric SUVs are in the works, but it's probably going to be awhile for EV batteries have the capacity for long-range trips, regardless of vehicle type (I think hydrogen is a better potential solution for trucks, though Tesla and others are trying to build electric trucks, too), but Lyft's recent $299 deal for 30 $15 trips per month worth of rides is just the most recent step in its goal to make car ownership in urban areas obsolete.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 20, 2018, 09:34:04 AM
If I lived in a truly urban area, I'd probably have a Smart car, or something like it, or nothing at all. People in urban areas don't care about bumping other cars. You can tell by looking at everyone's bumpers.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 20, 2018, 09:59:30 AM
Smart car maybe,electric car no.I think they have a long way to go before locking horns with winters in the upper midwest.Being able to start every day in below freezing conditions.And having the nuts/guts to push thru lots of snow.When that electric vehicle is produced will it be economically competitive?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 08:36:42 AM
Wind and solar simply are not growing anywhere close to fast enough to reduce CO2 emissions significantly.  The trend to NG replacing coal has done more to reduce CO2 emissions in the US.  The numbers don't lie.

We traded our Caddy for the VW GTI which is a nice urban car, and comfortable on the road as well.  I miss the memory seat function though.  The Caddy, while not a Big Car, was too big for around here.  And we're getting better fuel economy, the curb weight is quite a bit less.

I never understood the fuel cell proposition.  Hydrogen is not a primary fuel.  You can't mine it on this planet, you have to make it, so it really is for energy storage.  Batteries are simply better at that.  Maybe somewhere down the road we get to fuel cells, but I don't see it, perhaps in large trucks.  You still have to use a lot of energy to make hydrogen.

I really see no practicable way to reduce human CO2 emissions fast enough to interrupt climate change if the models are anywhere near correct.  Hand waving won't do it.  You need a real plan, with timing and costs, and no one has that.  



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 08:38:44 AM
Smart car maybe,electric car no.I think they have a long way to go before locking horns with winters in the upper midwest.Being able to start every day in below freezing conditions.And having the nuts/guts to push thru lots of snow.When that electric vehicle is produced will it be economically competitive?
As for "guts", electric cars have more than gasoline cars, if you mean torque.  The problem with the cold is that batteries don't like it.  The cars themselves have plenty of power.  The Chevy Bolt is arguably close to being practical and competitive if you live in a high gas price area.
Electric motors are famous for low end torque.  Pushing through snow is not an issue.  Loss of range in cold weather can be.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 21, 2018, 11:14:00 AM


I never understood the fuel cell proposition.  Hydrogen is not a primary fuel.  You can't mine it on this planet, you have to make it, so it really is for energy storage.  Batteries are simply better at that.  Maybe somewhere down the road we get to fuel cells, but I don't see it, perhaps in large trucks.  You still have to use a lot of energy to make hydrogen.






The idea of hydrogen is refueling. The biggest knock on electric is the range, and the fact that recharging is much slower than petroleum refueling.
Even the Tesla supercharging stations take 30 minutes or more. What happens when you're on a road trip, get to a charging station (that's full), wait 20 minutes to even start your car, and then have 35 more minutes to get back on the road? Not ideal.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on October 21, 2018, 01:06:18 PM
I'm roughing in a car charger in my garage in our new house,   I don't have an electric car yet, seems inevitable.   Range is my only concern at the moment.   I feel once we're solidly past 300 miles of range,  I'm down with it.   Pretty close now with a couple models.  I have a couple drives I do regularly which consistently put me in the 270-350 range.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 04:12:40 PM
Range is fine, but hydrogen has to be generated, which takes more energy than you get back.  It's merely a fancy expensive battery that requires an enormous infrastructure change.

I don't see it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 04:13:54 PM
My guess is circa 2030, many two car households will have one all electric vehicle and one gasoline or plug in hybrid family vehicle.



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on October 21, 2018, 05:12:21 PM
Electric motors are famous for low end torque.  Pushing through snow is not an issue.  Loss of range in cold weather can be.
And just happens to be a coincidence that snow is cold,so I'd run into a problem the further down the road I got if there is another snow squall that brings me back to my original point.3-4 yrs back the Great Lakes all froze over 2 straight years,the last time that happened was I believe'93-'94 and before that '77-'78 I think.I happen to live 2 miles from one that's why it would matter for me(us)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2018, 08:24:43 AM
As I said, cold reduces range, but "pushing through the snow" because of engine/motor power would not be the problem.

You might need winter tires, as the low rolling resistance tires on EVs today have rather poor traction.  Some car mag did a test where they swapped out the standard tires on a Volt with summer tires and the difference in range and braking and the skidpad performance was remarkable.

Range went down a lot.  Those low rolling resistance tires sound great until you consider the impact (ha) on braking distances and cornering.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2018, 08:27:03 AM
Anyway, if you have the numbers and the algorithms, you can plug different scenarios in to see impact on future climate.  Even if we went to zero carbon NOW, the impact continues for decades, and is not good.  If you use aggressive scenarios for replacing coal globally and then NG and petroleum, the numbers are scary bad.  And we won't even do that, not even close.

China and India get a free pass until 2030 and then they "agreed" to limit emissions from there on.  Not nearly enough.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/whats-in-a-half-a-degree-2-very-different-future-climates/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sa-editorial-social&utm_content=&utm_term=&sf200219549=1&linkId=58343526

"Preventing a temperature rise of 2 degrees C will be a major challenge, one that the current commitments from various countries will likely be unable to meet. And that is before Pres. Donald Trump pulls the U.S. out of the agreement. But the report says a 1.5-degree C limit is not impossible—although it will require immediate and drastic action, because the current pace of emissions would breach that level between 2030 and 2052. The most likely scenario for achieving that goal may require blowing past it, and then sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to bring temperatures back in line."

It would be much easier to limit CO2 generation in the first place versus pulling it out of the air.  The numbers are very very dire here, with no obvious plan to make them better beyond signing some paper agreements to do stuff later.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 22, 2018, 04:09:12 PM
Preventing CO2 emissions is definitely better than having to recapture them. Here's a new article that projects that by 2035 the whole oil & gas industry will be in decline. At the bottom, it is conceded that may be too late, so hopefully governments will figure out a way to expedite the transition to renewables:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/energy-transition-to-reach-point-of-no-return-by-2035#gs.da481fo
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 22, 2018, 04:14:58 PM
That is exactly my point.  I've spent time looking at the numbers and the projections.  If the models are roughly correct, NOTHING is going to keep us from well exceeding a 2°C rise short of massive depopulation by something.  

One can talk about how fast wind and solar are growing, but IT IS NOT NEARLY ENOUGH, and nuclear is simply not happening either.

Just the concept of replacing COAL by 2035 appears unattainable in practicable terms.  The numbers are not remotely close, not even talking about China and India.

I think "we" need a dose of reality here.  It's akin to having terminal cancer and someone says take these pills and you will live 3 extra days and the pills cost a million dollars.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2018, 08:35:59 PM
a billion dollars per pill and you take 4 pills a day for the next 5 years

mobilization and  effort and motivation including the entire industrialized world such as the late 1930's through the mid 1940's for the pursuit of WWII might make a considerable dent in the problem

but, obviously the motivation is not there

folks aren't interested in giving up their sons and husbands or their automobiles and gasoline or their vacations and whataburgers for this cause
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 22, 2018, 08:52:07 PM
And that's the most frustrating part of it all. What a lot of people don't realize for whatever reason is how much economic benefit there is in making these investments, long-term in particular, but short-term, too (wind turbine and solar panel installers and maintenance workers are two of the fastest growing jobs in the country and probably the world, and it's not even close: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/fastest-growing.htm). Energy efficiency (energy auditors and the like) has already matured and has more jobs than the rest of the energy sector, combined, with 2.25 million (https://www.greenmatters.com/news/2018/09/19/ml9Mz/energy-efficiency-jobs-report)

I got into this whole space not because I was an environmentalist, but because I saw how it was growing due to economic reasons and would continue to. The fact that it's interesting work and makes a real difference is a bonus.

Anyway, I'll get off my soapbox for now and hope for the best....
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on October 22, 2018, 09:37:00 PM
hope isn't going to do it

but, you know that
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on October 23, 2018, 09:13:27 AM
I have looked without success for any outline of a basic plan even in the US to make a real substantive impact in our CO2 emissions.

Maybe there is one somewhere, I haven't found it.  

Such a plan should at least project:

How fast emissions can be reduced.
How that would impact CC.
How much it would cost.
How coal and NG and petroleum would be replaced viably over time to reduce emissions.

I think the reason there isn't one is that when people look at the numbers, they give up.  Hand waving doesn't do it.

No doubt we can make some progress over time, but it simply won't be enough.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-set-to-rise-2-percent-in-2017-following-three-year-plateau

The last graph in that link is especially eye opening I think.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-co2-emissions-rise-after-paris-climate-agreement-signed/
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2018, 10:51:10 AM
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8.epdf?referrer_access_token=5QK7FGfdZNJBnww3rg3gadRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PPM6F5Tw--xUcDaVyo5KYP7_G9gTDd9jkXQCGLmYVcdiHz9wkwN0E6N2nDZlq4WDQgItGi5ylVScf0yzGnaEVfvjiMb4AD29fhh3xQR3z_DrC_cMrTVL7ZhdR6IhWWEdbaBw61pmJWfJX3nlJ6qnYm0eEGF290YDw0L29Qu1D0Zo3ti9EtUV0eTqh8Y9w5-oUx2QwN2d9ZfvrbV8VI76Jac_wGy8vU0HDJC8kZsxCODUxL-v0-LWQnBluUpq-qsDW9f53WLudiW6kwvNEkO4I0rLhw__H9ttuxs_edKYdWRZpKObHZFDXb4rWIN4ejpIkHGo-pg6Ic2wrQdCdp4Hi007oNSse22rlNllcb1bsahg%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

Basically, things may be worse than thought in terms of oceanic heat changes.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2018, 10:49:27 AM
Washington voters in Tuesday returns rejected I-1631, the proposed carbon fee initiative, which would have raised more than $1 billion annually by 2023, with spending decisions to be made by a governor-appointed board as well as the state's utilities.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 10:56:51 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/washington-state-votes-down-i-1631-major-climate-bill/575131/
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on November 07, 2018, 10:58:54 AM
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8.epdf?referrer_access_token=5QK7FGfdZNJBnww3rg3gadRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PPM6F5Tw--xUcDaVyo5KYP7_G9gTDd9jkXQCGLmYVcdiHz9wkwN0E6N2nDZlq4WDQgItGi5ylVScf0yzGnaEVfvjiMb4AD29fhh3xQR3z_DrC_cMrTVL7ZhdR6IhWWEdbaBw61pmJWfJX3nlJ6qnYm0eEGF290YDw0L29Qu1D0Zo3ti9EtUV0eTqh8Y9w5-oUx2QwN2d9ZfvrbV8VI76Jac_wGy8vU0HDJC8kZsxCODUxL-v0-LWQnBluUpq-qsDW9f53WLudiW6kwvNEkO4I0rLhw__H9ttuxs_edKYdWRZpKObHZFDXb4rWIN4ejpIkHGo-pg6Ic2wrQdCdp4Hi007oNSse22rlNllcb1bsahg%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

Basically, things may be worse than thought in terms of oceanic heat changes.
Seems like a very indirect way of measuring ocean heat uptake.  And gas measurements are always tricky.  Wouldn't it be better to measure global ocean surface temperature by satellite and temperature at depth directly?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 11:09:20 AM
The "best way" would be to have multiple different measurements using differing techniques, so  this method is an additional technique.

I saw some article a while back about how hard it is to measure mean temperature of something like planetary atmosphere or ocean water, etc., and it was rather mind bogglingly hard.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 07, 2018, 01:16:20 PM
Even the Tesla supercharging stations take 30 minutes or more. What happens when you're on a road trip, get to a charging station (that's full), wait 20 minutes to even start your car, and then have 35 more minutes to get back on the road? Not ideal.
My understanding is that you'd have two options. Either:

**(A nice benefit is that these standard recharges are so far 100% free of cost. And Musk has multiply promised to never change that. So, if you go on one of these road trips now, or wait until years from now and believe him, you can travel from NYC to Los Angeles without paying for gas. That's mighty nice.)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 07, 2018, 01:19:48 PM
The "best way" would be to have multiple different measurements using differing techniques, so  this method is an additional technique.

I saw some article a while back about how hard it is to measure mean temperature of something like planetary atmosphere or ocean water, etc., and it was rather mind bogglingly hard.


I appreciate that back and forth. Fascinating. If you can easily find the article you're describing here, I'd enjoy it. Thanks!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 01:33:55 PM
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/energybalance/earthtemperature.html

This is just one written in simpler terms, which is good.  The other one I couldn't find questioned what "average" means with such a concept. Do you just take say 600 readings at noon and midnight and average them?  The satellite readings are considered to be most reliable but they date back to 1979 I think it is.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 01:46:35 PM
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/jc98/
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 07, 2018, 02:37:07 PM
Washington's carbon tax rejection isn't as big of a deal as it may seem. Most of their electricity generation is already from hydro, they are one of the biggest EV markets, and already have some of the lowest emissions of all states. The fact that there was 20x as much money spent opposing it as supporting it is rather telling.... Carbon taxes are being implemented elsewhere, including Canada, so it's only a matter of time before it happens in the US, though it already has in a few places locally (including Montgomery County MD just outside of DC).

The bigger disappointment is that Arizona rejected a 50% renewable portfolio standard, though it may be irrelevant since they're already developing so many solar projects.

As for EV charging, I think battery switching will become a more viable option as EVs become more common, but there is a lot of R&D being done to improve the energy density of batteries.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 02:56:18 PM
Atlanta is a big EV market also (as in second behind SF).

https://www.fleetcarma.com/top-cities-electric-vehicle-sales/

Of course, most of the "E" comes from burning coal, though there is some nuclear and gas of course.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 07, 2018, 03:05:09 PM
There is some correlation between EV sales and renewable generation in that locale. On that list alone, the only exceptions to that are Atlanta, Detroit, and DC, while West Coast gets a substantial amount of its electricity from hydro, wind, and solar.

For the record, coal has already fallen below natural gas as the main source of electricity: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3.
Furthermore, the most coal-dependent states are the most rural (where there are few EVs): https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37034
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 03:11:28 PM
I was incorrect that "most" of our E comes from coal, only a quarter does.  The two new power reactors are still under construction at Vogtle, of course running well over cost estimates..

https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=GA



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 07, 2018, 03:34:24 PM
Nuclear has a lot of problems, which is why there are have been very few nuclear plants built in the past 30 years, with Georgia's being the last one still under construction, and many are retiring along with coal plants.

- Upfront costs, which are very high and often underestimated (Georgia's plant being a prime example). They're also not cost effective if they don't have really high generation capacity, though there is R&D being done to commercialize smaller-scale systems.
- Operation and maintenance costs are also fairly substantial
- Inflexibility in generation output. Nuclear is basically on or off, and it's expensive to turn on and off (usually only done once per year for maintenance as I understand it). Apparently France's plants have some flexibility for some reason, but that isn't the case in the US. Consequently, they can only be used as baseload plants so they have to be cost-effective enough to ensure that they will be cheap enough to dispatch at the lowest-demand hours (ie. middle of the night)..... This becomes increasingly problematic with the growth of renewables (which have no generation costs and their output cannot be controlled without energy storage infrastructure)
- Wholesale electricity markets (PJM, NYISO, ERCOT, ISONE, etc.) have provided competition allowing independent generators to compete to improve the cost-effectiveness and reliability of electricity. These markets only exist in the Northeast, Midwest, Texas, and California, but those states are where most of the nuclear plants are being retired as a result.... Conversely, the Southeast states, including Georgia, still have a traditional system where utilities monopolize generation, in addition to transmission, distribution, and energy sales.... That said, some states (IL and NY primarily) do subsidize nuclear with what they call zero emission credits as part of their renewable (or more accurately in this case, zero-carbon) portfolio standards. Other states are considering similar policies to prevent their nuclear plants from retiring early.

This article explains this and some other issues better: https://theconversation.com/the-demise-of-us-nuclear-power-in-4-charts-98817
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 03:41:15 PM
I read that only about 0.5% of US residences have PVs on their roofs.  I looked into it in Ohio and for me it was not even close to being viably financially.  I keep reading that PV is near par with whatever, but there is something wrong somewhere.  Part of that is I had to buy the PVs and then find someone to install them correctly, and the latter step was not easy.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 07, 2018, 03:58:37 PM
Solar is most cost effective in the West, particularly California, where electricity prices are higher and solar generation potential is higher (more sunny days). Ohio has relatively cheap electricity because it is part of PJM and the solar generation potential isn't so great. Regardless of where you live, energy efficiency investments are more cost-effective, too (smart thermostat, LED lighting, EnergyStar appliances).

Furthermore, solar is most cost effective for utility-scale systems due to economies of scale. Commercial-scale systems (those on land fills, roofs of schools / warehouses / etc.) are increasingly cost-effective, as well, especially in community solar programs (where entities can subscribe to the system, even if their building is elsewhere)..... Also, non-residential buildings have more complex electricity bills. Instead of just a flat rate, they have peak demand charges (a charge based on their highest level of energy usage) and often have time-of-use rates, which fluctuate in real-time based on the wholesale cost of electricity. These facilities can actually take advantage of these complexities to lower their overall price per kWh if they utilize their energy management systems and on-site generators appropriately, in which case they can even be compensated by the independent system operator of the wholesale market (eg. PJM) to help keep the grid balanced.

Solar is cost-effective for residential systems in many areas, as well, but a big issue, especially in Southern states, are rules against leasing them (which was SolarCity's model before Tesla took it over) so that the company owns the system and takes a percentage of electricity generated, eliminating the up-front costs. My understanding is that there are similar restrictions against financing (so that the customer owns the system but took a loan to do so). Permitting requirements and regulations are also a big challenge, not to mention many roofs don't get enough solar exposure or don't face sufficiently south or westward.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 04:24:59 PM
For us, it was not remotely close to being viable, off by 5-7x as I recall, and our roof had good orientation.

Whatever the barriers, roof top solar is not taking hold very quickly.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 07, 2018, 07:21:31 PM
**(A nice benefit is that these standard recharges are so far 100% free of cost. And Musk has multiply promised to never change that. So, if you go on one of these road trips now, or wait until years from now and believe him, you can travel from NYC to Los Angeles without paying for gas. That's mighty nice.)
I find that if you tally Musk's realized claims in one hand and his bulljive claims in another, you won't be happy about which one fills up first. :)
And saying "oh, just schedule it around a lunch stop" or something like that is the equivalent of saying "oh, take Amtrak, it's so romantic to ride the rails!"
Next weekend the wife and I are going to Sonoma. Rather than fight traffic through / out of LA on a Friday [which is hell], have to stop midway and get a hotel, we'd rather just start first thing in the morning. But we want to get there and still have time for wineries. Scheduling an extra 30-60 minutes into our drive time--and hoping the only Supercharger station in the right range to get us there with a single stop [247 miles from home, on a 450 mile journey] isn't busy or have a line on a Saturday morning, kinda makes our journey duration... unpredictable. 
Not much of an issue with a 5 minute gas stop. 
Now, I realize that's not the most common problem. Most people who can afford Tesla vehicles have another vehicle in their household--or enough money to rent cars for those infrequent road trips. So most people have access to a secondary vehicle to use for the journeys that the Tesla isn't well suited for.
BUT, this is one of the key reasons why electrics will have trouble completely replacing combustion engines. The need to change your refueling/recharging stop from 5 minutes to 30-60 minutes (or more if there's a wait) makes the vehicle impractical for a lot of drivers--at least as their only household vehicle. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 07, 2018, 07:28:59 PM
For us, it was not remotely close to being viable, off by 5-7x as I recall, and our roof had good orientation.

Whatever the barriers, roof top solar is not taking hold very quickly.
Oddly enough, back during the recession of 2007-09, there was a program derisively called "Cash for caulkers" after the poorly-executed "cash for clunkers" failed. It was a way to subsidize energy-efficient retrofits of existing houses.
While my political leanings make me bristle at it, from an economic standpoint it makes a lot of sense. 
The biggest issue with energy-efficient retrofits is that the upfront cost is often quite high, but the savings are spread out over time. So you need money now in the assumption of long-term savings. It's the opposite of a get-rich-quick scheme! Further, I think a lot of energy efficiency upgrades are hard to recoup in the sale of a house, so unless you stay in the same house long-term, you'll never make your investment back.
That said, energy efficiency is a net gain to society. It reduces aggregate demand, reduces the environmental impact of generating energy, and in the long term reduces cost to everyone. 
So it's the PERFECT sort of thing to subsidize, because it has a lot of positive externalities that are difficult for the purchaser to recoup, so energy efficiency upgrades receive under-investment in the market. 
But that's why rooftop solar doesn't take off. If I have to pay $15,000 to put solar on my roof, but it will take me 10 years to recoup the investment, I have to KNOW I'm planning on staying in a house for 10+ years. That's hard to do in our modern world. Hence fewer people buy these systems than would do so if there was a better business model that reduced the upfront cost. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2018, 07:38:07 PM
I calculated a negative net future value on solar.  I was better off buying T bills.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 07, 2018, 09:12:09 PM
The reason energy efficiency incentives exist is because it's much more cost-effective for utilities to pay for rebates on those upgrades than it is for them to build a peaker plant that only operates during the summer (and the marginal price of the electricity coming from it) and the associated transmission & distribution infrastructure. In fact, California has deployed energy storage systems instead of building additional generation, transmission, and distribution equipment for those peak demand hours. Demand response (paying consumers to reduce their usage during those peak demand hours) is part of the solution as well.

That said, the payback period for many energy efficiency upgrades isn't necessarily quick for the residential sector, and they aren't often accounted for in home values. That's why ESCOs exist to finance those projects (albeit they're focused on commercial, industrial, and public sector entities). Same deal with roof-top solar and other on-site generation projects.

And yes, Musk does often overpromise and underdeliver, but he has the right vision in place. Electrification and automation of the auto industry is inevitable. Roof-top solar will be cost-effective for most people, eventually, and despite all that, we still might have to colonize Mars (thus Spacex).
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 07, 2018, 09:38:58 PM
I'm not going to make it to Barcelona

sure as heck ain't goin to Mars
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 07, 2018, 11:25:25 PM
sure as heck ain't goin to Mars
Not too late to change that expectation. Musk's BFR will be ready preposterously soon.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2018, 07:40:42 AM
Getting to Mars is considerably tougher than getting to the Moon, one reason being radiation exposure.  I have not seen a viable solution to that one as yet.  It probably would be a one way trip.  

Anyway, the climate change is a fairly simple calculation (sort of).  We have a pretty good handle on how many gigatons of CO2 are generated each year.  We know roughly how much is "absorbed" by this and that.  We track very accurately the rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere (station on Mauna Loa has been there a while).  We have various models projecting the increase in global T as a function of said increase.

Then we can eyeball how much realistic steps might reduce the RATE OF INCREASE.  Had we started in earnest in say 1990 we might have a shot.  Today it's too late to do anything more than chisel a few tenths of a degree off the inevitable, if the models are right.

What I've seen of the ITER experiment in France is quite disappointing, a lot of internal strife and overruns.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 08, 2018, 08:08:05 AM
What I've seen of the ITER experiment in France is quite disappointing, a lot of internal strife and overruns.
Kind of like NASA
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 08, 2018, 08:09:28 AM
I'm not going to make it to Barcelona

sure as heck ain't goin to Mars
Wildwood Flower grew wild on the farm we never knew what it was called.........
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2018, 08:13:28 AM
ITER is also plagued by "international uncooperation" apparently, in addition to the usual.  The folks resent having a Japanese person on top, or whoever else.  They have split into national factions often as not from what I've read.

It is human nature to have folks vying for power, but when nationalities get sparked, it is like building a house with half Michigan carpenters and half OSU dry wallers.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 08, 2018, 06:58:04 PM
Well, this was timely for this thread: https://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com/2018/11/8/18076216/its-assembly-time
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 09, 2018, 12:03:48 AM
Nice find bwarbiany.

As for fusion, MIT is apparently trying to have a prototype system ready by 2025 and commercialize it in the next 15 years. I'm skeptical, but I hope they can do it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 09, 2018, 08:18:36 AM
The ITER thing is the large expensive international effort on fusion.  There are a lot of smaller efforts as well.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on November 13, 2018, 11:14:46 AM
Not by fire but by ice.


https://www.iceagenow.info/lack-of-sunspots-to-bring-record-cold-warns-nasa-scientist/ (https://www.iceagenow.info/lack-of-sunspots-to-bring-record-cold-warns-nasa-scientist/)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2018, 11:37:17 AM
The association between sun spots and climate is interesting, but never validated that I know of.  It was thought to be related to the "Little Ice Age", perhaps.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Temp430 on November 15, 2018, 08:01:56 AM
Not so fast.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/environment/sd-me-climate-study-error-20181113-story.html (https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/environment/sd-me-climate-study-error-20181113-story.html)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2018, 08:19:44 AM
Keeling said they have since redone the calculations, finding the ocean is still likely warmer than the estimate used by the IPCC. However, that increase in heat has a larger range of probability than initially thought — between 10 percent and 70 percent, as other studies have already found.
“Our error margins are too big now to really weigh in on the precise amount of warming that’s going on in the ocean,” Keeling said. “We really muffed the error margins.”
A correction has been submitted to the journal Nature.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2018, 08:51:34 AM
https://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/husker-balloon-found-on-new-york-beach-did-it-start/article_e78ad2a3-cc18-5ff6-a7d9-2c918a65e16e.html (https://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/husker-balloon-found-on-new-york-beach-did-it-start/article_e78ad2a3-cc18-5ff6-a7d9-2c918a65e16e.html)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 17, 2018, 09:27:25 AM
Biodegradable?Ya in a century or two
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2018, 09:54:22 AM
patience
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on November 17, 2018, 10:15:46 AM
I call bull.  Nearby watch party claimed they release balloons as well.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on November 17, 2018, 10:23:10 AM
yup, slim chance it came from the stadium, but......... it's undeniably a Husker balloon
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 17, 2018, 05:30:55 PM
6 possessions, 42 points.  Nice long throw by Fields.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2018, 08:41:37 AM
yup, slim chance it came from the stadium, but......... it's undeniably Husker Pollution
FIFY
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2018, 10:48:20 AM
A typical balloon is made out of a rubber, which means it is basically polyisoprene crosslinked with something, often sulfur.

Polyisoprene biodegrades readily, which is good since trees make the stuff.  It actually photodegrades quickly and then the pieces biodegrade.

Crosslinking it slows this considerably, which is good because our tires are made of it.  But even tires oxidize over time.  An old tire with good tread can be very slippery on the road.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2018, 10:57:03 AM
A typical balloon is made out of a rubber, which means it is basically polyisoprene crosslinked with something, often sulfur.

Polyisoprene biodegrades readily, which is good since trees make the stuff.  It actually photodegrades quickly and then the pieces biodegrade.

Was watching investigators break down suspects in the DB Cooper case.When that kid found some stacked/wrapped bills on a Columbia River beach in 1980.They surmise they were indeed planted long after the hijacking because of the rubber bands still on them.Don't know if they ever proved that however - prolly the last relevant segment the History Channel ever did
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on November 18, 2018, 11:00:24 AM
We've all had old rubber bands break on us I suspect.  That's due to oxidation and embrittlement.

I once worked on a project to replace the polymers we were using with some kind of polyisoprene analog.  It was interesting but the issues were overwhelming.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on November 18, 2018, 11:15:10 AM
Investigators thought the rubber was in too good of shape to be from 1971.You should have used polyisoprene digital - problem solved ;-b
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2019, 05:05:46 PM
Bump.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2019, 07:31:38 PM
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/433886-un-report-finds-globe-is-past-the-point-of-halting-temperature-rise

If this is close to being predictive, things are headed into problematic territory.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2019, 07:32:03 PM
you found it!!!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 13, 2019, 08:29:17 PM
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/433886-un-report-finds-globe-is-past-the-point-of-halting-temperature-rise

If this is close to being predictive, things are headed into problematic territory.
Yeah, it's a real cluster of a problem.
Some say "Why try?" if it appears impossible. In some ways that's fair. And not worrying our pretty little heads certainly fits our patterns of selling out for short-term gains. That part - "our patterns" - reminds me to consider human nature again, as if we were always destined to create and suffer this mess. I'm not actually that cynical, but I'll forgive someone who is. In fact, that whole idea has interesting things to say about what we can be blamed or forgiven for if bankrolling Nature (ad infinitum) was always in our nature.
Nevertheless, and even if it is forgivable, obviously Not Trying Because "Why Try? It's Impossible" is irresponsible. Irresponsible in several veins: in terms of general stewardship**, it terms of staying max-prepared in case our models are only slightly too pessimistic (that it's actually not impossible), and also in terms of "too much bad news" being quantitatively better than "even more too much bad news."
In any event, it's weird how, without the facts of the Earth really changing at all, in the matter of the last two months, the idea of this getting so bad it becomes a true national emergency is now forever more complicated, in American politics.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 13, 2019, 08:45:52 PM
Got up to 62 in the late afternoon today,tomorrow close to 70.Fri/Sat down to 30 and snow
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 13, 2019, 08:46:23 PM
[I forgot the footnote which is good in this case because it deserves to be its own thing]

**(Because this is such a polarizing concept, and because successfully curtailing emissions probably requires the vast majority of Americans to point in the same direction regardless of partisanship, that word "Stewardship" is going to be a major fulcrum. Slowing climate change (or at least contributing to it less, polluting less, etc.) can never be realistic if conservatives don't LOVE the idea equally as progressives. And that will require conservatives pointing in the same direction, albeit for their own reasons. I think this is as inevitable as it is good. In fact, I think there's already evidence that it's happening. Often using Christianity as anchor, there is a palpable uptick in right-of-center organizations arguing for slowing emissions (as well as curbing single-use plastics, deforestation, etc.) in the name of living up to the responsibilities of dominion over God's Earth. And it isn't all kumbaya or handwaving. In fact, in Utah last year, the conservative state senate took up significant climate change legislation because their minds were changed by the arguments of Mormon youth calling for better respecting the planet God gave them. Surely that's not yet enough to change the world. We're still not on track to stave off catastrophe. But washing this thing of identity politics and making it multilateral is a CRUCIAL step in us having a chance at all)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2019, 08:53:14 PM
crazy flooding here

warm weather melting snow along with rain and then the biggest factor of the ground being frozen, so everything runs off.  nothing soaking in

MrNubbz, sending it your way
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2019, 09:13:16 PM
you found it!!!
I know people here.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 13, 2019, 09:13:47 PM
crazy flooding here

warm weather melting snow along with rain and then the biggest factor of the ground being frozen, so everything runs off.  nothing soaking in

MrNubbz, sending it your way
Remove the levees. Make it real.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 13, 2019, 09:15:27 PM
oh, it's real

many roads closed
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 13, 2019, 11:23:04 PM
It’s cold as hell here at Cactus League spring training.  Plenty of rain, too.  Feels like a FL winter.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 13, 2019, 11:32:05 PM
I see 80 is shutdown all the way from western border to GI. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2019, 08:12:23 AM
Predicted high here today is 78°F.  Saturday's predicted low is 37°F.  The city will probably close down.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2019, 10:50:30 AM
I see 80 is shutdown all the way from western border to GI.
I wouldn't be surprised if I-80 gets closed in Iowa
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 14, 2019, 03:21:35 PM
crazy flooding here

warm weather melting snow along with rain and then the biggest factor of the ground being frozen, so everything runs off.  nothing soaking in

MrNubbz, sending it your way
Last 2 weekends we've had crazy high winds,as long as that's not coming - then bring it
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2019, 04:01:49 PM
gusts over 50mph this afternoon

sorry
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2019, 04:52:47 PM
We were out and about in the car and I turned on the A/C.  It was stiffling.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 14, 2019, 04:57:59 PM
gusts over 50mph this afternoon

sorry
That's what we have here now. I can take heat. I can take cold. I can take snow. I can take rain.


I really hate wind. Breeze? Fine, but screw this crap.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 14, 2019, 06:40:20 PM
golfers and boaters have this in common
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 14, 2019, 08:54:39 PM
It was up to 70 for the first time this year in DC today. I was thinking about bumping this topic because there's been a lot of news in the energy policy world in the aftermath of the Green New Deal hype.

New Mexico just announced it's going 80% renewable / 100% clean (which includes hydro & nuclear and other carbon-free technologies) by 2050. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, New York, Nevada, and Washington are all considering similar if not more ambitious legislation, with Maine and Michigan potentially doing the same. Only Hawaii, California, DC, and some cities have passed similar legislation in the US. Pennsylvania is also considering a law to subsidize it's nuclear plants, similar to how Illinois, New York, and New Jersey have. I'm not a fan of nuclear power long-term but I'd rather see coal plants get retired first.

As I've explained before, the end of coal (and eventually gas) generation is not a matter of if but when. Most of the wind generation is in Great Plains states and solar is growing fastest in Texas, too. It's all about economics and shouldn't be a political issue. That said, by 2020, there may not even be that much need for a national policy like the Clean Power Plan or Green New Deal with all of the state and local legislation.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 10:28:10 AM
I am unimpressed by any intention to go whatever by 2050, completely unimpressed.  Yoda said something about this.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 15, 2019, 10:33:47 AM
Ya like the environment will wait or take directives,provided mankind affects climate change
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 10:48:20 AM
It's just facile, IMHO, to "commit" to doing something 31 years from now.  It's just verbiage meant to sound good to the voters (some of them).

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 15, 2019, 12:37:54 PM
I am unimpressed by any intention to go whatever by 2050, completely unimpressed.  Yoda said something about this.


It's better than nothing, I guess, but does fall flat/lacks balls.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 12:43:02 PM
I see it as pandering.  You commit to something in 2050 about which you cannot be held to account, ever.  Now, if you state it as a goal and lay out a concrete plan with actions starting now, or soon, I might have a bit more respect for it.

"Hey, I'm your new coach, glad to be here, I commit to winning an NC by 2050, thanks."

Electricity from coal plus NG today is 60% of our production.  That isn't going to "go away" because of some politician's comments.  And the System still needs some kind of reliable baseline power from somewhere.  Wind is at around 7% and solar maybe 1% on the grid.  You can triple those figures and not replace coal, particularly if transportation starts going electric.  And that demand would be significant and at night, largely.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 15, 2019, 01:04:52 PM
Now, if you state it as a goal and lay out a concrete plan with actions starting now, or soon, I might have a bit more respect for it.
This is what I thought Michi was discussing. And I give it "better than nothing" credit because some goals do require decades of advanced planning. But it still lacks balls. And in America it also runs the risk of cancellation when government control changes Party.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 15, 2019, 01:13:37 PM

Great point that would place more of a burden on the grid.IMO the corporate creeps will take the easy money until it runs it course be it Coal,Nuke or NG.Then they'll employ the new sources which by that time they will have finagled the rights/patents to from the properly placed lobbyists
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2019, 01:35:52 PM
The GND is impossible. 



1, we don't have enough money to make it feasible. 


2, there is not enough manpower in the construction fields to make it happen (that number keeps dropping, as more people want art history degrees).



Can we make strides? Absolutely. I know this, because already have.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 02:26:46 PM
What is needed, and absent, are realistic practicable plans, with costs estimates.  I've never found any anywhere.  I think there is a reason for that.

Instead, we propose toothless high sounding and trite "commitment" and "goals" with zero enablement.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 04:38:48 PM
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/01/coal-will-remain-part-of-the-us-grid-until-2050-federal-energy-projections-say/

Coal, one of the most carbon-emitting sources of energy, is still projected to provide 17 percent of the United States' electricity in 2050, and that's assuming that no carbon-capture technology has been made mandatory. Natural gas—a fossil fuel that is less carbon-emitting than coal but still a problem for climate change—will increase its share of US electricity production from 34 percent to 39 percent.

 renewables are projected to increase from 18 percent of US electricity production to 31 percent by 2050. But a world where renewable energy makes up only one third of the US' electricity mix and nuclear energy actually decreases from 19 percent of the mix to 12 percent of the mix would be well out of bounds of what's necessary to achieve Paris Agreement goals.

So, the projection is coal and NG would still comprise 56% of our energy mix for electrical power even by 2050.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 15, 2019, 06:26:27 PM
All these renewable portfolio standards have intermediate goals (eg. 50% by 2030, 80% by 2040) with requirements in place. Some states do merely have renewable energy "goals", which are not binding, but those were put in place awhile ago before wind and solar become cost-effective. It's also not just states making these mandates. Utilities are self-imposing them, as well, even in traditionally moderate and conservative areas (XCel in Minnesota and Colorado, NIPSCO in Northern Indiana, NVE in Nevada, etc.).

I still believe that coal will be gone sooner than most people think. It's already gone from California's grid, where there is also basically no natural gas plants in the works (LA originally planned to build 3 new ones but energy storage systems proved to be more cost-effective).

Also, the EIA's projections are notoriously conservative. Even the oil & gas companies realize the energy transition will happen faster. The EIA is good for historical and current data but not future projections.

The Climate Strike by students was also today. It's encouraging that there's a substantial number of people born after 2000 (I feel old just typing that) that are aware of these issues and motivated to do something about it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2019, 07:13:23 PM
I guess I'm older and a lot more cynical about "claims" for the future.  I try and view things through the lens of hard reality and dollars and sense instead of wishful thinking.

When I was 25, I was sure we'd have landed on Mars by now, we're not even close.

We will be relying on NG and coal for a long long time.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 15, 2019, 07:18:10 PM
The great thing abut Winter in the North is that it really slows down the passage of time for a few months. March-November just fly by, but Winter just sorta drags on and on after a while. If I lived in a warm climate year round I feel like the years, decades, etc would go by way too fast. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2019, 07:33:54 PM
We could be off coal and natural gas tomorrow if the current powers that be would profit from it.  But they won't, so we don't.  We're held hostage by traditional power-brokers in Washington/Wall Street.  Period.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 15, 2019, 08:02:03 PM
The GND is impossible.



1, we don't have enough money to make it feasible.


2, there is not enough manpower in the construction fields to make it happen (that number keeps dropping, as more people want art history degrees).



Can we make strides? Absolutely. I know this, because already have.
Option #2 is a significantly bigger hurdle than #1. That and having enough steel/concrete/resources is the stuff that actually matters for ambitious gov't programs. And labor can be corrected by reincentivizing trade school paths and "up-incentivizing" engineering.

Why is #1 less concerning? Mostly because the national debt isn't like civilian debt. When the US runs a deficit of $5, that means its citizens/corporations and infrastructure received a surplus of $5. They always balance. And though the Treasury has to be attentive to the balance, deficits and debt are not automatically "bad" unless it results in consequences like default or inflation.

First, let's get ahead of the first: Default ain't happening. Full stop. Politicians may claim there's a risk of "national bankrupcy" but that's true nonsense - just fear mongering to win. Second up: inflation can happen. It's the thing to watch like a hawk. But inflation pains are not likely in this environment. Just look at inflation changes since 2000. That's the last year we had a national budget surplus and it's the year when national debt was its lowest across many of our lives.

We've soared by trillions in debt since, and inflation hasn't been a bogeyman of ours. At least not yet. Because we appropriately adjust our interest rates and the Treasury has a very strong bond market to account for every deficit. And that's ignoring how our national assets (nearing $120 trillion) have climbed faster than our debts during these same years.

All of which are good arguments for taking on MORE debt than we have during good economic stretches. Because taking less debt is missing opportunities to strengthen our infrastructure and private sectors without real consequences. It's also a good argument that the average person misunderstands/overemphasizes national debts and deficits. Inflation signals are the ones to pay attention to  - not bankrupcy or "how will we ever pay China?" fear mongering.

Anyway, this isn't to say that the full GND as popularized so far can be paid for by taking on more debt. But we could definitely afford an intermediate version. We just need to find one (trivial), agree on it (impossible for now), and remember that US history already has a famous example of taking on New Deal debt to solve massive problems.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 15, 2019, 10:34:03 PM
We need more engineers and scientists, and less policy makers. The latter know nothing about which they speak (loudly).
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 15, 2019, 11:12:16 PM
We need many more physicians too. That won't help us here but there is a unifying thread that in an increasingly complex and specialized world, it's a real bear to keep up with human talent.

Here, I'm not even putting engineers and scientists on a pedestal as holy special people. Moreso I'm treating them as normal people with very special information and I'm claiming that our problem is an exponentially exploding doubling time of human knowledge. So recruiting and training everyone in time to keep The Brain growing (and actually make practical use of it) is a serious dilemma.

It makes me wonder about the future of knowledge creation and use. Why can't A.I. satisfy many (all?) scientific and engineering needs better than people? That's not rhetorical. I'm not trying to be cute; I don't know either way. And if A.I. can't, how will it be that people can?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 16, 2019, 04:18:12 AM
We could be off coal and natural gas tomorrow if the current powers that be would profit from it.  But they won't, so we don't.  We're held hostage by traditional power-brokers in Washington/Wall Street.  Period.
Tomorrow?  Utilities are obviously highly regulated, but profit is a driver for them, as with all for profit enterprises.  You're basically saying wave a magic wand and somehow all that electricity production would be replaced overnight (or in a few years).  Profits are important in the real world where money doesn't grow on trees.
And obviously the infrastructure to build however many wind turbines overnight doesn't exist, nor does the land nor the transmission capabilities nor meeting baseline power requirements.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 16, 2019, 09:16:04 AM
We need many more physicians too. 
Now you tell me,I could have set my Field & Stream,Popular Mechanics down long enough to crack some manuals instead of beers.As long as Mom & Dad could pay some University to faff my SAT's & entrance exam
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 16, 2019, 02:34:20 PM
Tomorrow?  Utilities are obviously highly regulated, but profit is a driver for them, as with all for profit enterprises.  You're basically saying wave a magic wand and somehow all that electricity production would be replaced overnight (or in a few years).  Profits are important in the real world where money doesn't grow on trees.
And obviously the infrastructure to build however many wind turbines overnight doesn't exist, nor does the land nor the transmission capabilities nor meeting baseline power requirements.
It obviously won't happen overnight, but the majority of new generation is wind and solar in most places, regardless of if/what the RPS is. There is also a lot of transmission projects being built from the Great Plains and Southwest to cities in CA, TX, and Midwest.
Most US states actually have more electricity generation capacity than they need but the increasing electrification of transportation (even if Tesla might be in trouble, but all the major automakers are producing more EVs) and other systems will result in increasing demand and utiliization of that capacity for electricity while oil demand falls off.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 05:52:10 AM
Yes, oil demand likely will diminish, over time, same with coal and NG, over time.  Projections for what "over time" might mean are all over the place.

W&S are today minor contributors nationally, maybe 8% to the grid.  It takes time to replace installed capacity of coal and NG in part because the plants are paid for, one way or the other.  The capital needed to operate an existing coal plant is near zero, for however long they last.  It's fine to talk about all the new installed W&S capacity, but it needs to be put in context.  

There are two new power reactors going in near August, GA now, that could actually get finished after the usual massive cost overruns etc.  I thought they might kill it a while back, several times, but they are plowing ahead.  The economics of that don't look very good to me, but they do to someone.

Nuclear power is on the outs in Germany but France seems mostly content to stay the course while building more wind generation capacity.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2019, 08:18:39 AM
Probably enough hot air left over from the Fuhrer to drive those turbines
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2019, 08:32:26 AM
Tomorrow?  Utilities are obviously highly regulated, but profit is a driver for them, as with all for profit enterprises.  You're basically saying wave a magic wand and somehow all that electricity production would be replaced overnight (or in a few years).  Profits are important in the real world where money doesn't grow on trees.
I believe what he is hinting at is that the ways,means and ability is there now to start implementing the change.But they won't as long as they can wring a profit out of what is already in place.In a way I agree,Wall Street power brokers only think long term if it benefits their billfold.I'm sure there are those wanting to facilitate things for the greater good but the lobbyists seem to have hijacked common sense on Capitol Hill
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 08:42:31 AM
I thought we had already "started to implement change".  The "news" that profits drive action is not news obviously.  If you want Capitol Hill to intervene, what specifically would you like them to do?

Noting that for profit companies are FOR profit is not worth noting in my view.  IF wind is cheaper now than other sources, the grid will migrate to wind rather quickly and on its own without any incentives from CH.  The older coal and NG plants will be taken off line as wind comes on line, if it's cheaper.  However, that is something that is going to require many years before wind eliminates coal.  We'll have NG plants running in 30 years because they are so versatile and dependable.  I don't know where nuclear is headed, another accident and it could collapse rather quickly.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2019, 09:56:52 AM
For one I can see evidence of either price fixing or flat out monopolies in Utilities.Shit they went after John D. for back in the day.The sun supposedly burns more energy in one second than has been used on earth in forever.If this is accurate I find it hard to believe that there can't be a preliminary plan in place.Perhaps moving forward these Utilities realize maybe they won't hold all the cards.So why would they be in a rush to change anything.That maybe companies making turbines,solar panels or any of the other emerging technology will.Kind of odd how my natural gas and water bills have doubled/tripled in the last 5 years.Yet we have a glut of NG available and I live less than 2 miles from the Great Lakes.I like to get kissed before I'm screwed
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 10:37:05 AM
Utilities are often termed "regulated monopolies".  There have been some changes in ability to buy power from others.  

I doubt anyone's NG prices have tripled over the past few years.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2478/natural-gas-prices-historical-chart

Those are "hub prices", not retail.  Maybe your utility is making a ton of money, but I doubt it.

Anyway, our sources of electricity are evolving, obviously.  It may be too slowly for some, but what specifically would make that happen faster and how would that help anything?

Cost-benefit analysis.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 17, 2019, 11:59:49 AM
There are many suggestions that dirty operations should be taxed to pay for cleanup, or to subsidize cleaner operations.  Seems logical enough.

But in practice tax revenue doesn't always go where it was ostensibly supposed to go, and special-purpose taxes don't always end when their ostensible purpose has been completed.

The federal government enacted a tax on long-distance telephone calls in 1898 to help pay for the Spanish-American War.  I'm pretty sure that war had long been paid for when the tax was repealed in 2002.

After WWII, Oklahomans voted for a toll road between Tulsa and Oklahoma City.  As sold to the public, the tolls were supposed to end when the construction costs were paid off.  Construction on the Turner Turnpike (later designated part of I-44) began in 1947 and were completed in 1953.  The tolls are still in place.

In 2004, Oklahomans voted to install a state lottery--a tax on the stupid--in order to fund public education.  It was advertised as the solution to education-funding shortfalls and political wrangling over said funding.  The lottery began in 2005, and is still going strong.  Public education--even after a big increase last year--now gets significantly less funding in constant dollars than it did 15 years ago.  There are two reasons for this: revenue has not come close to equaling the predictions made by proponents of the lottery; and the state legislature has reduced its discretionary funding of education to more than equal the increase produced by the lottery.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 03:42:54 PM
At least in theory, it can work if taxes are devoted by law to a Trust Fund, the way SS and the Fed. Highway Trust Fund operate.  Then the money by law can only be used for "X".

Virtually everyone is for a cleaner environment, but like everything, it comes down to cost-benefit ratios.  There is no getting around that.  Well, not unless you have nearly unlimited borrowing power and print your own money.  We could install a carbon  tax and use the proceeds to subsidize carbon neutral power, but it would have to be a whammo tax to make much of a difference, and we're part of the entire world in this.  We might do well on our own while China and India do little until 2030, and then not do much even then.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 17, 2019, 07:28:52 PM
Utilities are structured differently depending on the state and region. I'll try to explain the basics:

Texas is fully deregulated meaning the utilities own absolutely no generation nor do they earn anything on electricity sales - they are only responsible for the transmission and distribution infrastructure. Independent power producers bid their energy into a wholesale market called ERCOT, and retail energy suppliers set the prices for customers. This creates competition at both ends and incentivizes the development of the best generation technologies. It just so happens that Texas has the most wind and fastest-growing market for solar.

At the other end of the spectrum are traditional regulated utilities that are monopolies. This is primarily the case in the Southeast and Western states aside from California. Electricity prices are determined by state public utility commissions, most if not all generation is owned by the utilities, and there is now alternative for the customers.

California is a rather unique case. They have a competitive wholesale market, but in many ways they are still a monopoly. However, municipalities can create their own utilities of sorts and procure energy separately. These are called community choice aggregations or CCAs for short. With the PG&E debacle, I expect this to take off and then the utilities would also just be responsible for the transmission and distribution infrastructure like in Texas. This is already about to happen for San Diego's utility, SDGE.

New England (ISONE) and New York (NYISO) also have their own wholesale markets, and customers have the option to buy energy from other companies. However, the utility remains the default supplier. Same is true in the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest (Ohio, Northern Illinois, and parts of Indiana) with PJM.

The rest of the Midwest (MISO), and areas surrounding Texas (SPP) have their own wholesale markets, as well, but the utilities are still the only option for customers.

Here's how the US electricity generation has changed over time. As you can see, the trends are pretty clear with coal dying, nuclear declining slower, while gas has taken off for now, and renewables are growing even faster. The Other is primarily hydro (using oil for generation is basically gone except for islands like Hawaii and Puerto Rico where it's also going away).
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=electricity_in_the_united_states. Again, the EIA is a very good source for historical data but its projections are questionable at best.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 08:10:30 PM
Why are their projections any more questionable than anyone else's projections?

Whose projections are better, and what do they project?

Hawaii should be ideal for wind and solar, high cost as it is from burning oil and a lot of wind and sun.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2019, 08:11:47 PM
We spent two weeks on Bonaire a few years back (one week too long IMHO).  We were warned that we'd have brownouts in the afternoon and evening because they don't have adequate baseline power capacity and depend pretty heavily on wind.  It was annoying.  We're spoiled.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2019, 08:24:31 PM
I doubt anyone's NG prices have tripled over the past few years.
Contraire Pierre,My prices with the added charges on NG that the PUCO allowed have implemented almost doubled.As a matter of fact the 1st year of deregulation in Ohio I believe it was 1999,Dominion East Ohio Gas assured its customers this was a good thing.So many of us stuck with the gas company.Up until 1999 my highest heating bill for a winter month was in the brutal 1994 winter it was 96.00 for a month.The winter of 1999 - 2000.I had two bills of 300.00 and one at 280.00.That winter was average temps.Cincy - if I could have gotten my hands on their CEO or the hacks at the regulatory commission I'd be typing this from the Big House - that was Government sanctioned robbery.There was a royal uproar.It gets too involved to keep typing.Just so happens before that winter I had all new windows and insulation blew in.Government can't keep letting Robber Barons literally fleece the proletariat
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 17, 2019, 10:24:37 PM
EIA projections are off because they're very conservative. There have been many articles written about it, but they have consistently underestimated the deployment of wind and solar along with the retirement rate of coal plants. Their methodology is rather flawed because it doesn't account for cost reductions for wind & solar or policy, they overestimate electricity demand (presumably because they don't account for energy efficiency improvements, though it will increase once EV sales take off).... To be fair, there isn't a concensus on what the most reputable forecast is.

Hawaii is ideal for solar and offshore wind, which is why they were the first state to have a 100% RPS.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 18, 2019, 12:28:28 AM
Anybody been to a wind farm?  They have some negative environmental impacts.  There's significant ecosystem degradation to the surface of the land on which they are built, and they kill a percentage of birds that migrate through their areas.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 18, 2019, 02:00:53 AM
I haven't walked around a wind farm but they're becoming so common that I've driven through countless. I've read of both problems. Those are obviously cons that have to be plugged into the cost-benefit analysis. The key step is to then compare them to the pros / cons for incinerating hydrocarbons.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2019, 07:50:25 AM
Anybody been to a wind farm?  They have some negative environmental impacts.  There's significant ecosystem degradation to the surface of the land on which they are built, and they kill a percentage of birds that migrate through their areas.
I've worked on several. They are pretty ugly. And then there's that flicker thing. NIMBY.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2019, 09:18:41 AM
I was at a wind farm near Palm Springs, CA.  I noticed quite a high percentage of units (probably 10-15%) not functioning, and some (5% or so) obviously derelict, rusted with pieces lying around on the ground.  I was told it's cheaper to build a new one than fix an old one.  Our guide told us the main thing to fail is the transmission, which is a large part of the cost.  When it goes, they just leave the turbine out there doing nothing and build a new one for the tax credits.

He said GE was very bad about this.  I think part of the cost should be for clean up, if it breaks, you need to take it out.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2019, 09:34:14 AM
Yep, that stuff happens everywhere. With the lease rights as they are, the companies are free to do as they please on the leased properties. The farmers just have to deal with it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 18, 2019, 09:35:11 AM
32 and snowing on the North Coast.Tribe Opens up 2 weeks from today.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2019, 09:38:36 AM
We are finally in a string of "normal" days here. It feels a whole lot better than 2 weeks ago. Damn.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2019, 10:47:47 AM
Yep, that stuff happens everywhere. With the lease rights as they are, the companies are free to do as they please on the leased properties. The farmers just have to deal with it.
It seems simple enough to me to require that money be set aside for eventual dismantling, and possibly for maintenance and repairs as needed.  We could end up with thousands of derelict and ugly wind turbines in short order.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 18, 2019, 11:28:33 AM
I did note while doing work on the recent application process for Illinois solar, it included a cost analysis. Demolition/decommissioning was a line item. So that's good, at least.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 18, 2019, 12:26:20 PM
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/18/07/13/2349236/retiring-worn-out-wind-turbines-could-cost-billions-that-nobody-has

I'd insist on having a trust fund funded up front with new turbine builders.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 18, 2019, 09:31:51 PM
I've been through the wind farms at Palm Springs CA once and the one just north of West Lafayette multiple times, which are two of the largest in the country if not the world. I've been past smaller ones as well. Some of the turbines weren't spinning but most of them were. The capacity factor for wind is generally 30-40% (meaning, it produces an average of 30-40% of its potential capacity over the course of a year. Eg. a 1 MW turbine produces 0.4*8760 hours = 3504 MWh / year).

That said, unlike solar incentives, wind turbines are incentivized only based on production (NOT when they're developed), so the developers have much more incentive to ensure that they are maintained and kept online. However, wind turbine technicians are the most in-demand job in the country right now, and many of them are in rural areas like the Great Plains so there is probably a shortage of them, which may explain why some of you have noticed when they're not spinning.

However, it is also true that newer turbines have much higher capacity than older ones (ie. the towers are taller and the blades are longer), which is why I can see that constructing newer turbines could be more cost-effective than maintaining existing ones. Sometimes these old turbines get "repowered" with longer blades to increase their capacity, too, though.

As for environmental impact, the amount of birds killed by wind turbines is negligible compared to tall buildings, air pollution, house cats / other predators, and other factors. Countless studies have shown this despite what the conservative media says.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 07:31:56 AM
I noticed quite a few rusting and missing major parts, obviously not functioning for years, clearly derelict.

Others looked OK but were out of commission for whatever reason, probably just needing repairs.

I wonder what MTBF is for the newest ones might be.

It was a good location for them, strong steady winds blowing all the time through the pass it seemed.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 07:33:07 AM
So, what is the likely US energy mix (presuming EIA is too conservative) for 2030 and 2050?

Presume two scenarios, one is "as is" and the other is "with government help".
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 07:36:26 AM
https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2018/03/16/how-much-do-renewables-actually-depend-on-tax-breaks/

The tax credits for renewables (https://www.energy.gov/savings/business-energy-investment-tax-credit-itc) allow utility developers and homeowners to take 30 percent of the cost of a solar, wind or fuel cell project off their taxes. A 10 percent credit applies to other technologies such as geothermal and combined heat and power systems. Currently, most of the credits are scheduled to decrease and disappear by 2022.

Many states now require that a certain percentage of their electricity has to come from renewable sources, usually by a certain date. These “renewable portfolio standards” (http://ncsolarcen-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Renewable-Portfolio-Standards.pdf) vary: New York and California aim for 50 percent by 2030; Vermont targets 75 percent by 2032. Thirteen states have no standard.

“The growth [in wind and solar energy] is going to continue,” said Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy (http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/) at Columbia and a member of the Earth Institute faculty. “It’s going to continue despite policy changes this administration has put into place, because the market forces are pretty powerful.” But, he added: “Twenty years from now…they will still be a relatively small portion of the energy mix.”

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 08:13:11 AM
I've been through the wind farms at Palm Springs CA once and the one just north of West Lafayette multiple times, which are two of the largest in the country if not the world. I've been past smaller ones as well. Some of the turbines weren't spinning but most of them were. The capacity factor for wind is generally 30-40% (meaning, it produces an average of 30-40% of its potential capacity over the course of a year. Eg. a 1 MW turbine produces 0.4*8760 hours = 3504 MWh / year).

That said, unlike solar incentives, wind turbines are incentivized only based on production (NOT when they're developed), so the developers have much more incentive to ensure that they are maintained and kept online. However, wind turbine technicians are the most in-demand job in the country right now, and many of them are in rural areas like the Great Plains so there is probably a shortage of them, which may explain why some of you have noticed when they're not spinning.

However, it is also true that newer turbines have much higher capacity than older ones (ie. the towers are taller and the blades are longer), which is why I can see that constructing newer turbines could be more cost-effective than maintaining existing ones. Sometimes these old turbines get "repowered" with longer blades to increase their capacity, too, though.

As for environmental impact, the amount of birds killed by wind turbines is negligible compared to tall buildings, air pollution, house cats / other predators, and other factors. Countless studies have shown this despite what the conservative media says.
That's one of the sites I worked on. All I could think while working on that was "wow, this is massive" and "man, this is gonna be ugly".
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 19, 2019, 08:28:25 AM
It's overwhelming when you drive up on it particular from the north on I-65, especially at night with the slow pulsating red lights as far as the eye can see in every direction.   

Ever get behind one as it is being delivered? Talk about a wide load.   They struggle to make the cloverleaf turns on an interchange.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 08:41:34 AM
Yeah, part of the issue with constructing these wind farms is what you have to do to the surrounding roads. As they generally exist, there is no way you're getting even one of those monsters delivered. Intersections had to be widened to accommodate the turning radii of the delivery vehicles, for example. Another is the load capacity. Soil conditions. Blah blah blah.




Stuff people don't consider. You know, the stuff I do.




  :67:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 08:46:31 AM
Soil is over rated.  You just drive and it will probably be fine.  Maybe.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 08:49:23 AM
Yep.


(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.chicagomag.com%2Fwhet%2Fsinkhole.jpg%3Fver%3D1366297953&hash=53dd14ebb23f0488cf032d7d989bfc25)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 08:58:31 AM
Is that a typical pothole in Illinois these days?  

I've noticed the bad pavement around here is mostly due to its being dug up to run new whatevers and then poorly patched.  The freeway to the airport is concrete surfaced and original from whenever it was built, probably about 1966.  I don't know the cost differential for concrete vs asphalt, but it seems to last forever in this climate.

A few sections had been redone here and there.

The Downtown Connector here is asphalt, and it is pretty amazing to see from the 17th Street bridge.  This is what it was in about 1980:

(https://www.ajc.com/rf/image_widescreen/Pub/p6/AJC/2015/11/10/Images/photos.medleyphoto.8374904.jpg)

Notice the lack of any acceleration ramps, and not much traffic.

(https://www.ajc.com/rf/image_inline/Pub/p6/AJC/2015/09/03/Images/photos.medleyphoto.8095065.jpg)

This is the NB side today on a typical afternoon.  It is to be avoided.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 09:00:43 AM
Speaking of weather, sometimes it rains here, a lot:

(https://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/lg/public/2015/05/31/flooding.jpg)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 09:07:49 AM
I gave a presentation on dams and levees last week, to a group of local business leaders. I'm thinking my talk is gonna stay with them for a while now, given that a dam failed yesterday, and levees are being breached on a daily basis.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 09:14:19 AM
Are you still saying humans can't effectively fight massive rivers with enormous drainage areas?

All we need is a huge wall on each bank, maybe 100 feet high, composed of carbon fiber reinforced plastic with a 1 foot foundation.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 09:18:27 AM
Sand bags, man. Sand bags!!



And don't forget to duct tape your windows.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 09:37:19 AM
What about the barrier islands off the Atlantic coast?  Would it make sense to build nice beach homes on sand there?

Somewhere I read many of them are only 10,000 years old, and most are shifting south or north rapidly.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 19, 2019, 09:49:47 AM
I wouldn't touch that. There are plenty of places to build homes, without that risk. Sand flows.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2019, 10:46:10 AM
Speaking of weather, sometimes it rains here, a lot:
CD was that picture taken from your condo?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 11:08:22 AM
No, I found it on line.  I look outside my office and see the park.

https://www.google.com/maps/uv?hl=en&pb=!1s0x88f504395064ac19:0xf3aeea4ef52f350e!2m22!2m2!1i80!2i80!3m1!2i20!16m16!1b1!2m2!1m1!1e1!2m2!1m1!1e3!2m2!1m1!1e5!2m2!1m1!1e4!2m2!1m1!1e6!3m1!7e115!4shttps://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipP4liIZyYwRU3o6H4r52Dy8pyQtndJc3ucLelKe%3Dw363-h240-k-no!5spiedmont+park+-+Google+Search&imagekey=!1e10!2sAF1QipP4liIZyYwRU3o6H4r52Dy8pyQtndJc3ucLelKe&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjm8fjGvY7hAhUFPN8KHYGjD14QoiowFnoECAQQBg

That's a view from the park looking back our way.  I'll be over there soon once it warms up a bit.  

(https://www.wheretraveler.com/sites/default/files/styles/wt17_promoted_large/public/images/PiedmontPark-volleyball_c-JamesDuckworth-ATLPhotos.jpg?itok=mbLlBuo1&timestamp=1427230141)

That is where I jog, around the fields.  It used to be a horse track back in the day.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 11:11:32 AM
(https://broadstonemidtown.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Piedmont-Park-Atlanta-Things-to-Do-1000x500.jpg)

The "Connector" (freeway) is to our west about 10 blocks or so.  Fortunately I can snag a feeder road to get on I-75 north.  If I have to go south I usually wend my way through back streets.  The proximity to the park really sold us on this place.  

(https://www.piedmontpark.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/piedmont-park.jpg)

Parks are good, I'm donating to their conservancy in addition to picking up trash when I go.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 19, 2019, 11:35:09 AM
As for environmental impact, the amount of birds killed by wind turbines is negligible compared to tall buildings, air pollution, house cats / other predators, and other factors. Countless studies have shown this despite what the conservative media says.
Negligible numbers, countless studies, and conservative media notwithstanding, the first site listed when I googled "how many birds do wind turbines kill" is the Audubon Society, which estimates 180,000 to 328,000 birds killed by wind farms in North America each year.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 11:35:35 AM
(https://www.piedmontpark.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Atlanta-Skyline-Piedmont-Park.jpg)

This is a nice one looking SW with midtown down to where that tall spire is and then downtown beyond that.  The spire is the Bank of America building.  This must be 2-3 years old now.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 19, 2019, 11:42:30 AM
This is something I've mentioned before, a simple but brilliant concept that has succeeded beyond anyone's imaginings I suspect, still under construction:

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-DW573_072914_G_20140729102319.jpg)

The "Beltline" is a 23 mile loop around downtown and midtown, some of which is to get light rail someday.  Right now it's just a concrete paved path and the amount of new construction going up near it is amazing to me.  It runs just to the east of the Park above.

https://beltline.org/

There are new restaurants popping up all along it, you can sit on the patio and eat and drink and people watch, a bit like San Antonio without the water.  It has to be paying off for the city big time.

https://www.atlanta.net/things-to-do/outdoors/beltline/

On weekends, it's almost something to avoid because it gets so crowded.  We use it to walk over to Ponce City Market and restaurants near there.

https://poncecitymarket.com/

That is the old (1926) Sears building.  When we first moved here that was THE Sears, the only one in town.  On weekends it's a total packed mess, but it's not bad on weekdays.

I like it here, you may be getting the notion.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 19, 2019, 01:53:26 PM
Negligible numbers, countless studies, and conservative media notwithstanding, the first site listed when I googled "how many birds do wind turbines kill" is the Audubon Society, which estimates 180,000 to 328,000 birds killed by wind farms in North America each year.
I won't say that isn't a large number, but looking at it on its own is not very informative. Which isn't to say to you are being sensational; just that this isn't enough to have a productive conversation. For ex: What are the bird populations in North America? How many are killed by other means, such as striking other structures? And what would be the numbers on bird/animal killings if the energy produced by wind farms were produced by something dirtier instead -- both short term (pollution) and long term (climate change)? 
Comparisons, trends, and clusters of numbers do more to tell us about the real world than one data point in a vacuum.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2019, 02:05:15 PM
I know reflective glass in office buildings(to save energy) takes out a lot of birds
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 19, 2019, 08:30:01 PM
I won't say that isn't a large number, but looking at it on its own is not very informative. Which isn't to say to you are being sensational; just that this isn't enough to have a productive conversation. For ex: What are the bird populations in North America? How many are killed by other means, such as striking other structures? And what would be the numbers on bird/animal killings if the energy produced by wind farms were produced by something dirtier instead -- both short term (pollution) and long term (climate change)?
Comparisons, trends, and clusters of numbers do more to tell us about the real world than one data point in a vacuum.
I agree.
But I never compared or implied a comparison.  I just posted that a percentage of migratory birds who fly through wind farms are killed.  Apparently this is true.
That was in support of my point that while wind energy doesn't add CO2 to the atmosphere, it does have environmental impacts.
I didn't see that as a controversial point.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 19, 2019, 10:04:04 PM
Ah, cool. If you didn't mean it as controversial, then I don't see a controversy either.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 20, 2019, 12:18:15 PM
There's something everyday people could do that would help in a small way--stop drinking bottled water.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 20, 2019, 12:27:46 PM
I'll drink to that.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 20, 2019, 12:52:08 PM
It's helpful to have durable reusable containers for food and water. It doesn't have to be Pyrex or a Nalgene. It just has to last for years before ending up in the landfill, and of course you'd have to have the habit of using it instead of single-use plastic/styrofoam. Conveniently, this helps individuals save money in addition to being a lesser burden on the environment.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2019, 01:43:30 PM
Coke and Pepsi were late to the bottled water craze, I think because no one there could believe it was more than a fad.  Of course, they purify large quantities of water to make their soft drinks, so it was trivial for them to expand their RO capacity, add some minerals, and cash in on this craze.  The wife drinks bottled water, but she reuses containers at least.

I don't know how much of that plastic gets recycled, but it isn't much.  The plastic is not the same as in milk jugs, for example, so they shouldn't get mixed, but do.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2019, 01:46:13 PM
I lived through the "we're running out of landfills" back in the late 1980s and 1990s.  The word came down that anything new had to be compostable, which posed quite the challenge for us polymer types.  We had some interesting, and useless projects during the day, and I got into quite a bit of political trouble because I took on - inadvertently - some BIG VPs who had a lot of skin in the game, and game it was, and I was small fry.  The fact I was right didn't save me.

I clung to "being right" for too long of course, being a stubborn mule.  I really did get in serious career trouble that took years to shake off.  For being right.

All that burfle disappeared rather quietly 2-3 years after I surfaced the facts.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2019, 10:00:13 PM
many times, it's detrimental to prove that you are the smartest guy in the room - by being correct
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 21, 2019, 10:02:09 PM
There's something everyday people could do that would help in a small way--stop drinking bottled water.
“Hear, hear”
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 22, 2019, 11:50:05 AM
Back when I was in school, I took an environmental engineering course. Part of that course included garbage and recycling, etc. At that time, the professor estimated that only 20 percent of the materials placed in the "recycle bins" were actually being recycled.


I'm guessing that is up to about 40 percent now. Maybe a bit higher or lower??
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 22, 2019, 12:23:34 PM
My guess would be 10% of the stuff in any recycle bin is actually recycled.  We have twp dumpsters outside, one for trash and one for recycle.  The stuff inside the recycle bin is mostly cardboard, but mixed in with a LOT of packaging and plastic bottles and film and whatever.  Now, perhaps this all gets thrown on a line somewhere with humans picking out what can be reused.  I've seen one such line in Cincy back circa 1995, nearly all of it went to landfill.  They would not even pull out a bottle with a cap on it because the materials are different.

And the line went really fast, so even Al cans would pass the workers.  At that time, NO newsprint was recycled, zero, it had negative value.  No magazines, not paper, none of that.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 07:25:36 AM
https://archive.epa.gov/epawaste/nonhaz/municipal/web/html/

"In 2013, newspapers/mechanical papers recovery was about 67 percent (5.4 million tons), and about 60 percent of yard trimmings were recovered (Figure 3). Organic materials continue to be the largest component of MSW. Paper and paperboard account for 27 percent and yard trimmings and food account for another 28 percent. Plastics comprise about 13 percent; metals make up 9 percent; and rubber, leather, and textiles account for 9 percent. Wood follows at around 6 percent and glass at 5 percent. Other miscellaneous wastes make up approximately 3 percent of the MSW generated in 2013 (Figure 4)."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 07:27:29 AM
https://www.rubiconglobal.com/blog-statistics-trash-recycling/

1. Nine-tenths of all solid waste in the United States does not get recycled.
2. Landfills are among the biggest contributors to soil pollution – roughly 80% of the items buried in landfills could be recycled.
3. Although 75% of America’s waste is recyclable, we only recycle around 30% of it. Turns out, there are a few easy steps you can take to start recycling better (https://www.rubiconglobal.com/blog-golden-rules-recycling/).
4. A single recycled plastic bottle saves enough energy to run a 100-watt bulb for 4 hours. It also creates 20% less air pollution and 50% less water pollution than would be created when making a new bottle.
5. Recycling plastic saves twice as much energy as it takes to burn it.
6. It only takes 5 recycled plastic bottles to make enough fiberfill to stuff a ski jacket.
7. Motor oil never wears out, it just gets dirty – and it can be recycled.  (Not precisely true.)
8. The U.S. recycling rate is around 34.5%. If we’re able to get the rate to 75%, the effect will be like removing 50 million passenger cars from U.S. roads.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 07:29:20 AM
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/plastic-produced-recycling-waste-ocean-trash-debris-environment/

A whopping 91% of plastic isn't recycled
Billions of tons of plastic have been made over the past decades, and much of it is becoming trash and litter, finds the first analysis of the issue.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 07:35:38 AM
Plastic of course is a broad term for a host of different materials, which is part of the problem.  Most of it is polyethylene, which itself comes in different versions, though they are chemically the same (in basic composition).  Milk jugs are PE.  Then there is polypropylene, milk jug caps are PP.  You don't want PE mixed in with PP if you are recycling.

Then there is PET for short, which makes up the bottles of water and Coke we buy.  The caps are PP.  PET also makes up the polyester in the shirts we wear (polycotton is a blend).

Packaging material is polystyrene foam, something very different from the above chemically.  It takes up a lot of volume when it is 'foamed".  Dow Chemical doesn't like it when we call packaging material Styrofoam, but we do.  They are in Michigan anyway.

And there are "tons" more types, but those are the main ones, unless I'm forgetting something which is likely.  Polyurethane is one more that can be hard or soft depending on which kind it is.  Those spray cans we use to insulate tight areas are polyurethane foam.  A lot of the hard plastic that makes up stuff is PU.

IF you can get a stream that is source separated, you have something you can recycle rather easily, but if it is a mixture, good luck.  It does no good if YOU separate the items nicely and they get thrown on the same truck.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 08:05:14 AM
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/risks-rewards-possible-ramifications-geoengineering-earths-climate-180971666/?linkId=65003923&fbclid=IwAR25wI4eVbC7tNYTsu8bWdUYBzd2gsnTBpIYO81YPqDNN7Ut-tn3JVm_jX0

Sounds risky to me at this point.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 23, 2019, 08:20:09 AM
Thanx CD,I've been almost O.C.D.(pun intended)about recycling for at least 2 decades.Even before residential curbside or commercial pick up.Use to place an extra recycling can in the lunch room at work and at home fortunately we had recycling centers in the area.I'd give my metal cans an such to friends who when they collectd a whole load would turn it in for a little coin - car parts,duct work metal shelving,mounting brackets etc.I was surprised by how much one center gave us for old platic stackable chairs and white buckets/lids and such
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 09:00:24 AM
I used to collect aluminum cans back when we drank more soft drinks.  I'd get $5 or so for a large bag.  As I read more about the health effects of Coke etc., I cut everyone off in my family with rare exceptions, and I don't drink beer from cans.  

Most of the plastic waste in the oceans comes from Asia, so nothing we do here is going to help.  The US is pretty good about waste disposal (not perfect obviously).  We have a problem with tires which is largely hidden from public view.  I think to recycle effectively plastic bottles we need a 5 cent per tax that is refunded on return.  You could have return kiosks that read the bar codes and separated the plastic by type and then crushed the mess when the container starts to get full.    That would help with soda/water bottles.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2019, 09:49:43 AM
recycling helps most folks feel good about their effort

try not to ruin it for them, please
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 23, 2019, 10:48:19 AM
 and I don't drink beer from cans.  
Really - years ago brewers started lining the cans with a waxy substance to cut out that metal taste.The one advantage of cans is blocking light.It has been proven by many blind taste tests that bottles left out even under artificial lighting negatively affects the taste.That makes me feel good about those efforts
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 23, 2019, 10:53:12 AM
I've often wondered whether or not wine and booze bottles recycle. Not sure why, but I wonder.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2019, 03:27:42 PM
We took another long walk today.  They are having some kind of "science fair" thing in the park, it was packed with youngsters.  I sort of glanced at some of the booths.  Meh.

We then walked south looking for somewhere new to have lunch and went all the way to where Tech has built up across the freeway.  Ate gyros, pretty good, and found a place called Bytes after we ate that was pretty neat, gonna try that sometime.  Perfect weather, warmish in the sun and a touch cool in the shade, zero clouds, lots of stuff blooming, a lot of people out and about, several restaurants were packed on their patio areas.  

https://www.bytesrestaurant.com/home

Each table has an iPad and you just order using that.  

I know the midsection got severe floods, I'm sorry for them.  They obviously need more dykes.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2019, 08:00:42 PM
really shouldn't drink beer from anything but a glass, after being poured into the glass from the container to release the head
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 23, 2019, 08:54:21 PM
I'd far rather drink straight from the bottle than pour it into a separate glass. I chase every bit of bite I can get, and pouring beer into a glass seeds too much CO2 gas. My goal is to keep that in solution, so emptying a beer into a glass kind of ruins its flavor for me.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 23, 2019, 09:30:18 PM
Craft brewers also love the cans, way less cost to ship than bottles.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 23, 2019, 11:14:47 PM
I've often wondered whether or not wine and booze bottles recycle. Not sure why, but I wonder.
I took a bunch of glass bottles to a recycling point the other day.  There were three bins in which to put them; one for clear, another for green, another for brown.  The green glass included--as far as I could tell--all wine bottles no matter how much more brown than green their brownish-green color seemed.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 23, 2019, 11:25:57 PM
There is an EPA Superfund cleanup site in NE Oklahoma.  The place is "Tar Creek," and there used to be zinc and lead mines there, and the chat piles outside the mines contaminated rainwater and ultimately the ground water.  There has been some success using mushrooms to pull heavy metals out of the groundwater.

A couple of similar articles in the Tulsa World.

https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/secret-weapon-to-get-heavy-metals-from-tar-creek-compost/article_323eff40-0884-5f91-ae39-cc35f8396500.html (https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/secret-weapon-to-get-heavy-metals-from-tar-creek-compost/article_323eff40-0884-5f91-ae39-cc35f8396500.html)

https://www.tulsaworld.com/epa-mushroom-compost-removes-pollutants-from-tar-creek-site/article_37368dd9-7f74-5b6d-9ec0-a029c2b6469d.html (https://www.tulsaworld.com/epa-mushroom-compost-removes-pollutants-from-tar-creek-site/article_37368dd9-7f74-5b6d-9ec0-a029c2b6469d.html)

Mickey Mantle's father--"Mutt" Mantle--worked in some of these mines.  He died of Hodgkin's disease at age 40.  I don't know if his work had anything to do with his early death.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2019, 07:35:44 AM
What do you do with the mushrooms after they are contaminated?

Superfund sites are real problems.  They often just get brownfielded, as the funds are not there to clean up any but the very worst.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2019, 08:15:13 AM
Circa 1990, composting of waste was supposed to be the "solution".  Some smaller cities set up municipal solid waste composting operations.  They were failing as fast as new ones opened, I would guess none exist today (they do compost yard waste, a very good change).  Problem 1 was malodor and Problem 2 was cost.  When things degrade without oxygen, they stink.  If you've ever left a pile of grass clippings around for any period of time you know what I mean.

And of course MSW contains batteries, heavy metals, and all sorts of "garbage".  That leads to "leachate", the liquid goo that gets generated.  That leachate often is contaminated and toxic and has to be ... collected and managed.  We had a pretty large drum composter where I worked for experiments.  The materials added were tightly controlled, no batteries etc. and it worked, it took a lot of energy to turn it, I'd guess it was 10 feet diameter and 25 feet long.  They used as ingredients shredded paper, dog food, ground glass, and some mulch, and we'd add a few percent of our material to test what happened to it.

This is great for yard waste IF you can turn and aerate the material fairly often.  Not so for MSW, nor is burning it a good idea, that releases stuff into the air we don't want in the air.

This is where I got into trouble.  I started reading up on composting facilities and noted how many closed and how few were being started and published a report on that (internally).  I didn't think anyone would read it, but apparently it got kicked up to high levels.  I got some very angry emails that copied my boss and his boss and his boss.  My boss' boss caught me at lunch and said "Whatever you do, DO NOT RESPOND to any emails on this, let me deal with it."  He later told me I had initiated a fire storm that could only happen because my facts were correct, but it went against a very public program we had going on and some VP types had staked their careers on this.

It took about another two years before all the programs we had in R&D were shit down, mine was last to go.  I got transferred to a place I did not want to go after being asked 3 times if I wanted to go there.  I was also on the edge of a nice promotion which was delayed 7 years as a result.

Don't be a round peg if they have square holes.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2019, 09:23:35 AM
I've worked on a few Superfund cleanup sites in the past. Bureaucracy is the major problem. I figure I could have been done in about 1/3 the time if took to get through all the red tape, for about 1/3 of the money. Government doesn't allow for speedy solutions. If it did, about 50 percent of the government "workers" would be more.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2019, 09:36:30 AM
What do you do with the mushrooms after they are contaminated?

Superfund sites are real problems.  They often just get brownfielded, as the funds are not there to clean up any but the very worst.


I'd like to know about this too.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 24, 2019, 09:47:45 AM
I'd far rather drink straight from the bottle than pour it into a separate glass. I chase every bit of bite I can get, and pouring beer into a glass seeds too much CO2 gas. My goal is to keep that in solution, so emptying a beer into a glass kind of ruins its flavor for me.
I dunno years ago I was at one of the local Oktoberfests thrown by some the local craft brewers.I was talking to one of the brewers and he suggested the opposite.Pour the beer straight down the middle of the quaffing vessel to produce as much head as possible,let sit then repeat until full.I know they do this with Guinness on St.Paddy's Day but probably to get a head start ;D.His rationale was this releases much of the CO2/gas getting the true taste of the product - seemed the rest of those guys were doing the same.I've been doing that ever since and I think they're right
                                                                                                                                                    :singing:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2019, 10:04:58 AM
How you pour your beer is a personal choice depending on how much carbonation you like.  

Champagne should be opened to preserve as much as possible, the cork should make a slight whoosh, not a boom, and nothing should come out of the bottle.  This takes some practice.  Pouring Champagne is more varied.  I use a glass designed for chardonnay for obviously reasons, not a flute.  I pour a small amount in each glass and then pour to bring up to a third of the volume and serve.  This limits decarbonation.  

The Champagne district makes a small amount of still wine, I've never had one.  It probably tastes somewhat like Chablis.  The carbonation is basically because the still wines from that area are not very good (it's to the north of nearly all wine grape growing regions).

Chablis is interesting to visit, not far from Paris.  There is a discrete line you can see where the region starts and ends, across the line is pasture, mostly, and inside is grape vines (some of which is Petite Chablis).  There is an outcropping of limestone that makes the region prized.

The growers worry that climate change may change their terroir and they can't move north to compensate.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 24, 2019, 10:06:02 AM
@MrNubbz (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=17) - I know that. But I don't like beer for the reasons other people do. We've talked about this. People typically want beer to be balanced and mild. I want to be kicked in the mouth. So I want the hoppiest IPA imaginable. And straight from the bottle. Anything that reduces the kick reduces my enjoyment.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on March 24, 2019, 10:42:50 AM
So you must love HopSlam, which is a Michigan brewery.    Did you pick some up this winter?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2019, 11:00:55 AM
I like balance in beer, and wine.  When I was teaching wine classes, that was one of my main points (another was to enjoy what YOU like, not what someone says is good).

The best wines I've had were hard to describe, they weren't this or that, unless I make up stuff to sound good, they were balanced, and good.  American wine makers got on a kick of making overly alcoholic wine, or tannic wine, or woody wine, or buttery wine, or fruity wine, or whatever, instead of balance.  It's good for marketing.

It may be harder to "enjoy" and reflect on a wine that has balance instead of some in your face attribute, like "blueberries" or "chocolate" or a "soupcon of asparagus".

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/af7e02ee-edb2-4a0d-abfb-3702d751671c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CIRq5QG0bU

The book was better than the movie.



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 24, 2019, 11:04:02 AM
I'd far rather drink straight from the bottle than pour it into a separate glass. I chase every bit of bite I can get, and pouring beer into a glass seeds too much CO2 gas. My goal is to keep that in solution, so emptying a beer into a glass kind of ruins its flavor for me.
well, as you know the CO2 is going to get out somehow, I don't mind a little belching and farting while drinking beer
everyone has their own taste preference.  Brewers aim for the taste gained by releasing the head.  Most of this taste is of course promoted by the odor.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 24, 2019, 11:50:22 AM
(https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/8c53c18/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F0b%2F2e%2Ffb1ee39249c4a6a31e82617e8d45%2Fnoaa-flood.jpg)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on March 24, 2019, 01:28:18 PM
So you must love HopSlam, which is a Michigan brewery.    Did you pick some up this winter?
I love most Michigan IPAs. Hopslam counts. Ditto Humalupaliscious and Founders Centennial and All Day. But Two-Hearted is my favorite of Michigan and my favorite overall.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 24, 2019, 09:53:33 PM
@MrNubbz (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=17) - I know that. But I don't like beer for the reasons other people do. We've talked about this. People typically want beer to be balanced and mild. I want to be kicked in the mouth. So I want the hoppiest IPA imaginable. And straight from the bottle. Anything that reduces the kick reduces my enjoyment.
IPA's aren't on my radar,so I don't think about them,prolly why I don't recall.Don't get me wrong I'll have one if a warm Natty Lite or Milwaukee's Best isn't available 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2019, 07:28:58 AM
We're headed to Boston during what probably is the nicest weather of the year around here with dogwoods and azaleas starting to bloom (think the Masters).  The NE part of ATL is replete with very ritzy older homes with some serious landscaping that has been there for decades.  It's something to see and the wife would enjoy that.

But Boston calls (long story).  Bummer.  I may take a couple road trips to adjoining states I've never visited.

Checking boxes etc.  Boston weather forecast is "OK' at least five days out.  Weather here forecast is spectacular.  We're 14°F warmer at the moment.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 25, 2019, 12:42:29 PM
What do you do with the mushrooms after they are contaminated?

Superfund sites are real problems.  They often just get brownfielded, as the funds are not there to clean up any but the very worst.
Re-reading the articles, I see that I misstated the point about mushrooms.  It is mushroom compost--mushrooms grown on a chicken-litter-and-hay compost, then composted themselves--that is used to filter the contaminated water in ponds.  Each pond takes in water at the top and exits it below the compost layer into the next pond.  The ponds in total are cleaning about half a million gallons of contaminated water a day, but contaminated water is going to be coming out of the abandoned mines for a long time.  The compost is supposed to last 20 years or more.  After that, it will have to be "stored."  Where that storage will be has not yet been determined.
The area is certainly a large brownfield now, and will probably remain that way for many more decades.  Most of the state money in the cleanup has gone to relocate the former inhabitants of the area.
I didn't know this before, but it's part of a larger tri-state project that also includes SE Kansas and SW Missouri.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2019, 01:03:09 PM
Cleaning contaminated water is "easy" but can require a lot of energy depending on how it's done.

I could think of better (IMHO) filtration materials than mushroom compost in terms of volume of material you end up with.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 25, 2019, 01:31:59 PM
It does seem like a bulky filtration medium.  Maybe it's good because either (A) it's cheap, (B) it's effective, or (C) doesn't require much energy.

The metals they're trying to remove are lead, zinc, cadmium, nickel, and iron, and it seems like each pond or series of ponds is designed to concentrate on one metal.  I don't know if mushrooms are better than some alternatives given that design.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2019, 01:59:33 PM
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1878535210001334

Useful article on the different methods of heavy metal removal.  

"Various low-cost adsorbents (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/adsorbent), derived from agricultural waste, industrial (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/industrial-waste) by-product, natural material, or modified biopolymers (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/biopolymer), have been recently developed and applied for the removal of heavy metals from metal-contaminated wastewater. In general, there are three main steps involved in pollutant sorption onto solid sorbent (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/sorbent): (i) the transport of the pollutant from the bulk solution to the sorbent surface; (ii) adsorption on the particle surface; and (iii) transport within the sorbent particle. Technical applicability and cost-effectiveness are the key factors that play major roles in the selection of the most suitable adsorbent to treat inorganic effluent."

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 25, 2019, 02:22:17 PM
(https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/8c53c18/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F0b%2F2e%2Ffb1ee39249c4a6a31e82617e8d45%2Fnoaa-flood.jpg)
The purple area along the Missouri River extends into NW Missouri and NE Kansas.  That includes my last Army post, Fort Leavenworth.  I've been getting some pictures from a couple of former colleagues there.
Here are a few.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.2/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.2)
Here the Platte River is above the bottom of the BNSF railroad bridge.  So far not too much flotsam has piled up against the bridge.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.4/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.4)
These are RR tracks descending into the flood waters, vicinity of Waldron, MO.  Waldron is just to the north of where I-435 crosses the Missouri River from Kansas into Missouri.  The BNSF tracks go below the Interstate bridge.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.5/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.5)
There are RR tracks down there somewhere.  Under the closest stretch of water, I think.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2019, 03:28:50 PM
Why would anyone build RR tracks under water?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on March 25, 2019, 10:59:17 PM
Regarding the subject of recycling, I think going away from regular plastics for bioplastics and other recyclables while advancing waste-to-energy systems, composting, and anaerobic digestion, is the only real solution. Then, electronic waste and other waste containing metals remains the big issue.

Not to beat a dead horse, but another major study released today shows that most existing coal plants are already uneconomic compared to new wind & solar, even if you have to site the wind or solar plant in the same vicinity (which does reduce the need to invest in new transmission infrastructure, to be sure). Here's one of many articles about it:  https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/25/business/coal-solar-wind-renewable-energy/index.html

Case in point - Michigan's utility that covers most of non metro Detroit is the latest utility phasing out coal for renewables: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/consumers-energy-to-seek-5-gw-of-solar-by-2030-under-clean-energy-plan#gs.2gu3uh
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 25, 2019, 11:28:00 PM
Why would anyone build RR tracks under water?
To go with the whiskey the Engineers drinking?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 26, 2019, 07:49:34 AM
Not a fan of bioplastics, at least not the current stuff.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 26, 2019, 08:25:21 AM
Not a fan of bioplastics, at least not the current stuff.  
Nor am I. 
My household has made a fairly solid effort to not buy any plastic. "Any" is not realistic. It would be next to impossible to not buy "any" plastic. Even the paper milk containers have plastic spouts on them.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 26, 2019, 09:00:27 AM
well, as you know the CO2 is going to get out somehow, I don't mind a little belching and farting while drinking beer.
You don't wanna drink in an enclosed space with AC.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2019, 10:14:29 AM
I've got answers for the "tough questions" that follow.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/breaches-everywhere-midwest-levees-burst-and-tough-questions-follow/ar-BBVrOxo?li=BBnb7Kz

‘Breaches Everywhere’: Midwest Levees Burst, and Tough Questions Follow




MITCH SMITH, JOHN SCHWARTZ and TIM GRUBER
2 hrs ago


This is from the NY Times, but you can't read it there without a subscription. So, I linked the MSN feed.


(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBVrFfF.img?h=1080&w=1920&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f)
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBVrDg1.img?h=1080&w=1920&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f)
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBVrDg9.img?h=1080&w=1920&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f)

 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/war-of-words-over-jussie-smollett-hoax-case-erupts-again-in-chicago/ar-BBVqiAt?li=BBnb7Kz)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2019, 10:18:40 AM
there were a few dams that blew out as well

worst flooding in my lifetime
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on March 31, 2019, 12:25:05 PM
The purple area along the Missouri River extends into NW Missouri and NE Kansas.  That includes my last Army post, Fort Leavenworth.  I've been getting some pictures from a couple of former colleagues there.
Here are a few.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.2/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.2)
Here the Platte River is above the bottom of the BNSF railroad bridge.  So far not too much flotsam has piled up against the bridge.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.4/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.4)
These are RR tracks descending into the flood waters, vicinity of Waldron, MO.  Waldron is just to the north of where I-435 crosses the Missouri River from Kansas into Missouri.  The BNSF tracks go below the Interstate bridge.
(https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-c1qzaS-1MdpP0xlsc11A20Y_EUKJLPDcp05gauofSunp4OZCsjWzIZDk7TRkCJMTRWg6tO_7An76O4MSd-gvwA/messages/@.id==AClZtCNuWPwrXJkWVQBCaO7kMqY/content/parts/@.id==2.5/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2.5)
There are RR tracks down there somewhere.  Under the closest stretch of water, I think.
Yep, all the RRs in Nebraska and Iowa have been hit pretty hard with the recent flooding. In one of my BNSF RR employee groups I've been privy to quite a few pics of the destruction specifically related to the RR tracks. 
Thankfully in my territory all I have to worry about is the occasional summer flash flood at a few specific bridges we go over. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on March 31, 2019, 12:38:40 PM
Keep the shiny side up and the dirty side down, D-Frog!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2019, 01:11:20 PM
Got down to 26 deg last nite with 3"-4"on the car this morning.Winter has been hanging around a long damn time - Opening Day is tomorrow :D
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2019, 01:22:48 PM
better you than me

50 degrees here this afternoon and sunny

snow is gone
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2019, 01:25:34 PM
The rapidly dropping cost of renewable energy has upended energy economics in recent years, with new solar and wind plants now significantly cheaper than coal power.

But new research shows another major change is afoot: The cost of batteries has been declining so unexpectedly rapidly that renewables plus battery storage are now cheaper than even natural gas plants in many applications, according to a report released this week by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

https://thinkprogress.org/renewable-energy-coal-natural-gas-a3828fd843cb/amp/ (https://thinkprogress.org/renewable-energy-coal-natural-gas-a3828fd843cb/amp/)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on March 31, 2019, 01:41:26 PM
Not a good source there...
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on March 31, 2019, 01:52:13 PM
a bit political
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 01, 2019, 07:58:23 PM
The politics in that article are extraneous and just should've been left out.

The other points are all valid and are things I've stated before. It won't be too much longer until natural gas plants peak and are no longer built. They won't retire as fast as coal plants are, but they're already in decline in California and the same will happen elsewhere before long. Energy storage technologies are not only more cost-effective but easier and faster to deploy, because they can be developed pretty much anywhere at any capacity from small residential Tesla Powerwalls like Green Mountain Power in Vermont is doing to Florida Power & Light's recently announced 400+ MW system (it won't be long until 1 GW scale systems are being developed, either).
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2019, 08:08:01 PM
Elon Musk to be given credit?? or is he just the media hog?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 01, 2019, 08:49:00 PM
Elon Musk to be given credit?? or is he just the media hog?
Musk deserves a lot of credit for expediting the growth of the electric vehicle market. Before Tesla started, none of the major automakers were seriously pursuing it. Now they all are, and they know that EVs (along with autonomous driving) are the future. It's just a matter of when at this point. The EV market has still taken off faster in China and parts of Europe, aside from California, but it won't be too long before they take off in other parts of the US and countries around the world.
Building the gigafactory for batteries in northern Nevada was a smart move not only for his cars, but their energy storage business. The Powerwalls get more hype but the utility-scale projects in Australia and California are much more significant.
His boring company is also pretty forward thinking, but who knows if the hyperloop will ever be developed anywhere. It sounds like his de facto Chicago blue line express between the Loop and OHare is not going to happen, regardless of who is elected their next mayor tomorrow.
That said, he deserves to be criticized for repeatedly overpromising and overhyping everything. Merging Tesla with SolarCity made sense in theory, but it hasn't worked out well. Other solar companies (particularly Sunrun) took their market share and even these high-end solar roofs with solar shingles that just look like regular roofs haven't taken off nor will they ever be cost-competitive with regular roof-top solar installations.
If he gets in any more legal trouble, though, he might be best off selling the business, which might happen, anyway. As it is, SpaceX seems to be is biggest interest.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2019, 09:00:46 PM

Building the gigafactory for batteries in northern Nevada was a smart move not only for his cars, but their energy storage business. The Powerwalls get more hype but the utility-scale projects in Australia and California are much more significant.
I'm not interested in an electric vehicle at this point, but the battery development is encouraging.
Nearly everything in my network runs on -48 volts DC.  Battery technology advancement can really enhance wind and solar power.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2019, 11:16:39 PM
Musk.. Yep, he is brilliant, BUT!!!




My best pal bought one of his cars. Model S. Very nice. Needs to be charged every day in the winter - range is 120 miles when it's cold. Electric bill is WAY up. Shockingly up.




So far, buyer remorse. I imagine in the long term, he will be happy. It's a great car. Super fast, off the line, but I caught him in my Benz after 85 MPH. Maybe less??
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 01, 2019, 11:35:48 PM
85 MPH??!?!?!?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 01, 2019, 11:43:24 PM
85 MPH??!?!?!?
I've had her at 120. Illinois tollway, bro. Not sure how fast she can get to. Not gonna try. I'm good.

Mrs. 847 wants a Porsche again. I may allow it.*

* As if I could stop it. Haha. Not. You know her. :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 02, 2019, 12:32:49 AM
If you're saying that charging his EV is more expensive than an equivalent refill at the gas station (say 4 gallons for 30 mpg vehicle = 120 miles, which is probably ~$10 if gas is $2.50 / gal, which would be lower than usual) that's surprising. I just looked this up so I could be wrong, but supposedly the Model S has a 100 kWh battery capacity, which at $0.10 / kWh (which is more expensive than in most states except AK, HI, CA, NY, and New England) would also cost $10 to charge....... Maintenance costs for EVs should also be lower (no oil changes, fewer parts that could break, etc.).

Unless your friend is an unusual electricity rate structure (most residential customers have simple flat rates, though ComEd is one of the few utilities that offers real-time pricing to residential customers, which should actually help them save money as I did when I lived in Chicago - especially for him if he were charging his vehicle at night.... IL is also deregulated so he could've gotten a bad deal from a retail energy supplier if he signed up with one) I don't understand why that would happen....
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 02, 2019, 09:51:31 AM
I've had her at 120. Illinois tollway, bro. Not sure how fast she can get to. Not gonna try. I'm good.

Mrs. 847 wants a Porsche again. I may allow it.*

* As if I could stop it. Haha. Not. You know her. :)
haha, I wouldn't even think about one negative comment about a Porsche.  It will look great in the driveway, she will look great driving it, and It's only money
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2019, 04:20:13 PM
In WW Two, Ferdinand Porsche was one of the major tank designers.  He provided a prototype for the Tiger tank (which was not adopted).  He converted the 78 he had made to the "Ferdinand" (later called "Elephant") tank destroyers used at Kursk and elsewhere.  

They do build some nice cars today.  I used to want a 944 back when I couldn't afford one.  I think a color matched key fob is a $360 option.

The new C8 Corvette will be midengined, which is rather interesting.  Some reports have it at 1,000 hp and they experienced problems with the frame at full thrust.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2019, 06:46:54 PM
Man, I’m starting to have frame issues at full thrust myself....
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2019, 07:49:38 PM
Yeah, it happens, but not when you're new to the game.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 05, 2019, 08:02:40 PM


Mrs. 847 wants a Porsche again. I may allow it.*

 :)
Miss Nubbz wants a 2005 Dodge Neon.It can hit 120 going down a 45 deg hill provided the emergency brake isn't stuck .Guess I'll put one in the Easter basket with the Cadbury Bunny
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2019, 08:05:06 PM
I'm amazed how fast even basic cars are today compared with muscle cars of 1970.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 05, 2019, 09:56:24 PM
I'm amazed how fast even basic cars are today compared with muscle cars of 1970.
Mini-vans can book it!  Put one of those engines in a little Miada or something, and I bet you're in Stingray territory.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 05, 2019, 10:52:24 PM
Man, I’m starting to have frame issues at full thrust myself....
Have you tried stretching first? 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 07:27:28 AM
Just take a basic Honda Civic or Accord and compare 0-60 times with "muscle cars" of yore.  They compare pretty well overall.  The top Honda Civic would smoke nearly any muscle car.

So would the top Golf (which has AWD which really helps).

There was a period from about 1974 to 1984 when even the fastest cars were really slow, a 0-60 time under 10 seconds was "fast".  That was the nadir for performance for cars.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2019, 09:37:09 AM
I'm amazed how fast even basic cars are today compared with muscle cars of 1970.
traction
weight
transmission
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 10:27:19 AM
The key factor is torque and horsepower, or if you will power to weight ratios.  They are MUCH higher today, and yes, tires offer more traction, especially the summer tires.  Probably the best single thing to make your own car handle better is to add summer - and then winter - tires, in place of all seasons.

My 1973 Chevy Nova with a 5.7 L engine had 185 horsepower, which is trivial by today's standards.   A base Honda Accord has 192 (from 1.5 L turbocharged, up to 252 in higher trims).

And of course modern engines usually add fuel injection and excellent breathing and computer controls that mine lacked.  That Nova was considered to be a pretty fast car in its day, and it got 18 mpg on the freeway even at 55 mph.

  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2019, 10:34:24 AM
as you know, everything changed with new regulations in 1973

my 1970 Nova SS had the 300hp 350/5.7

yes, I could get close to 20 mpg and that was with 411 gears in the 12 bolt rear end, about 3,000 rpm at 60 mph
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 10:40:41 AM
That 300 horsepower was gross, my 185 horsepower was SAE net, a very different figure, about the same as 285 gross.

The air pump took away about 10 horsepower and some fuel economy.

https://ateupwithmotor.com/terms-technology-definitions/gross-versus-net-horsepower/ (https://ateupwithmotor.com/terms-technology-definitions/gross-versus-net-horsepower/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 10:44:54 AM
1967 Chevrolet Camaro SSCompare Car0-60 mph 7.9 | Quarter mile 15.2
1969 Chevrolet Camaro ZL-1Compare Car0-60 mph 5.2 | Quarter mile 11.6
1972 Chevrolet Camaro GTCompare Car0-60 mph 10.4 | Quarter mile 17.4
1972 Chevrolet Camaro Luxury GTCompare Car0-60 mph 9.7 | Quarter mile 17.0
1972 Chevrolet Camaro Z28Compare Car0-60 mph 7.4 | Quarter mile 15.3
1974 Chevrolet Camaro Z28Compare Car0-60 mph 8.0 | Quarter mile 15.2
1975 Chevrolet Camaro (350ci)Compare Car0-60 mph 10.9 | Quarter mile 17.2

Aside from that ZL-1, those are pedestrian acceleration times by modern metrics.  And the ZL-1 would not be considered truly exceptional today, just fast.  A VW Golf R would be faster.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 06, 2019, 02:36:24 PM
If you're saying that charging his EV is more expensive than an equivalent refill at the gas station (say 4 gallons for 30 mpg vehicle = 120 miles, which is probably ~$10 if gas is $2.50 / gal, which would be lower than usual) that's surprising. I just looked this up so I could be wrong, but supposedly the Model S has a 100 kWh battery capacity, which at $0.10 / kWh (which is more expensive than in most states except AK, HI, CA, NY, and New England) would also cost $10 to charge....... Maintenance costs for EVs should also be lower (no oil changes, fewer parts that could break, etc.).

Unless your friend is an unusual electricity rate structure (most residential customers have simple flat rates, though ComEd is one of the few utilities that offers real-time pricing to residential customers, which should actually help them save money as I did when I lived in Chicago - especially for him if he were charging his vehicle at night.... IL is also deregulated so he could've gotten a bad deal from a retail energy supplier if he signed up with one) I don't understand why that would happen....
Nah. That's not what I wrote.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 02:48:56 PM
If you buy an EV and charge the battery routinely, you'd expect to see your bill rise, but not nearly as much as you save not buying gasoline and brakes and whatnot.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 02:49:24 PM
I'm not sure why all cars don't use regen braking now in place of an alternator.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 03:05:42 PM
https://www.motortrend.com/news/new-ev-recharging-tech-technologue/?sm_id=organic_fb_MT_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5ca8e969e6dfda0001dc84ce&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR37XHMyMJKYf6m_ML44PW1f01j9eyGADWBw33Agsq8yO97SdkcjmtJwYMU (https://www.motortrend.com/news/new-ev-recharging-tech-technologue/?sm_id=organic_fb_MT_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5ca8e969e6dfda0001dc84ce&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR37XHMyMJKYf6m_ML44PW1f01j9eyGADWBw33Agsq8yO97SdkcjmtJwYMU)

119 miles of charge in 5 minutes?  Mebbe.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 06, 2019, 03:08:10 PM
Probably the best single thing to make your own car handle better is to add summer - and then winter - tires, in place of all seasons.
What do y'all need winter tires for? 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2019, 03:12:17 PM
If I have summer tires, I need winter tires as well if the temperature drops below about 40°F fairly often, which it does here.  I could probably drive less aggressively and get by though.

I was amazed at the traction those high performance summer tires did on wet pavement in Austin.  They were Michelin Pilot Sport Cup 2s, really almost racing tires with some tread.

https://www.michelinman.com/tire/michelin/pilot-sport-cup-2 (https://www.michelinman.com/tire/michelin/pilot-sport-cup-2)

They changed the tires after each day's run.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2019, 10:25:36 AM
Just take a basic Honda Civic or Accord and compare 0-60 times with "muscle cars" of yore.  They compare pretty well overall.  The top Honda Civic would smoke nearly any muscle car.

So would the top Golf (which has AWD which really helps).

There was a period from about 1974 to 1984 when even the fastest cars were really slow, a 0-60 time under 10 seconds was "fast".  That was the nadir for performance for cars.
True.  My 1986 Chrysler Laser XT Turbo would make 0-60 in around 8.2 seconds and was considered "fast" for the era.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2019, 10:32:11 AM
Right now an electric car wouldn't really suit my needs, but a really well designed hybrid pickup or SUV would.  The range for full electrics just isn't there yet for me, especially given my towing wants/needs.  But combining the power/torque of an electric motor with the range of the gas engine would be a hell of a combination for towing.  

Makes me wonder, is hybrid technology being applied in commercial long haul trucking?  Seems like a logical place for it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 10:52:47 AM
I think a Diesel is a better engine for a hybrid, design one to run at constant RPM, like 2200, and do nothing but generate electricity as needed.  Is the electric motors exclusively for drive, like on locomotives.  That would simplify transmissions, eliminate the alternator, and increase fuel economy while providing immediate torque.

Regen braking would make brakes last a long long time.  You would not need to downshift to brake, no need for a Jake brake.  I don't know how many gears a transmission might need, depending.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 10:54:24 AM
True.  My 1986 Chrysler Laser XT Turbo would make 0-60 in around 8.2 seconds and was considered "fast" for the era.
That is the 0-60 time of my Chevy Sonic, which the daughter now drives.  It was a turbo as well, 1.4 L.  I actually liked that car.
The GTI is of course a lot better, some larger and a good bit faster and better handling.  I thought it was a bargain.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2019, 12:14:59 PM
My Ford Flex, with a 285 hp motor, does 0-60 in 8 seconds. But that's due to it being a gigantic heavy pig, and only FWD.

The EcoBoost version with AWD and a 365 hp motor gets down to 5.7s, IIRC. Pretty fast for a kid-hauling station wagon. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 10, 2019, 12:16:39 PM
This is one of the reasons fuel cell technology (hydrogen) is potentially the next big deal. The batteries aren't there to power long-haul trucking, but fuel cells can generate their own electricity, without the need for the huge battery storage. With a little push, the diesel trucking fleet could convert to hydrogen and be able to make those long hauls (and hill climbs) on electricity--with torque to spare (and capable of a hydrogen refuel in minutes, rather than the time it takes to recharge EV batteries). Also, smaller batteries would be much better for the environment, as these lithium batteries aren't so awesome environmentally.

Right now the infrastructure isn't there, which makes hydrogen expensive--which itself is silly given how plentiful hydrogen is. California is trying hard to build it out, but seems to be swimming upstream at the moment. 

I seriously considered getting a hydrogen-powered car a few months ago, but for a one-car family, it just couldn't quite pencil out. Again, with a little push, it's a real possibility.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 12:19:29 PM
I think anything under 8 seconds or so is adequate these days, and the torque number of often the critical parameter, not horsepower.  (They are of course related by RPM.)

Anything under 6 seconds can be considered "fast" or quick, whatever, and under 4 seconds is getting into supercar range, even though it's really Camaro/Mustang range today.

To get under 3 seconds, you need all wheel drive almost without exception.  Somebody got a ZR-1 to do 2.95 seconds once.

The GTI is around 6 seconds and I've yet to floor it.  I've mashed it a bit for fun.  The CTS we had was around 6 seconds with a 4 cylinder engine and 4,000 pounds to haul around.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 12:21:33 PM
Hydrogen is not plentiful.  It's all tied up.  And getting it out is energy intensive.  Then you have transportation and storage and delivery of a very cryogenic fuel.

I saw the math somewhere long ago on generating and transporting and cooling hydrogen and it did not compare with shipping electrons by wire to batteries.

Single digit Kelvin.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 10, 2019, 12:45:54 PM
I think a Diesel is a better engine for a hybrid, design one to run at constant RPM, like 2200, and do nothing but generate electricity as needed.  Is the electric motors exclusively for drive, like on locomotives.  That would simplify transmissions, eliminate the alternator, and increase fuel economy while providing immediate torque.

Regen braking would make brakes last a long long time.  You would not need to downshift to brake, no need for a Jake brake.  I don't know how many gears a transmission might need, depending.
If you don't need to downshift to have regenerative braking, does that mean that you can't just coast?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 12:52:21 PM
If you don't need to downshift to have regenerative braking, does that mean that you can't just coast?
In cars, you can adjust the the controls to do either.  Many folks use one pedal driving, if they come off the "gas", they start slowing down rapidly.  That would take some adjustment.  You can also set it to coast normally and only brake when you hit the brakes.
I understand that many use the one pedal technique and only get on the brakes in an emergency.
In cars, there is no transmission, usually, beyond a step down gear, no gear changes.  The motor has torque right off 0 RPM.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 10, 2019, 02:42:52 PM
Hydrogen is not plentiful.  It's all tied up.  And getting it out is energy intensive.  Then you have transportation and storage and delivery of a very cryogenic fuel.

I saw the math somewhere long ago on generating and transporting and cooling hydrogen and it did not compare with shipping electrons by wire to batteries.

Single digit Kelvin.
I'm no scientist, so I'll leave those details to you. My understanding is that with dedicated infrastructure, it would be much less expensive than it is--still more expensive than generating electricity for EV cars.  But, batteries capable of supporting long haul trucking are a long way off--whereas fuel cell technology for the same is not. While hydrogen through electrolysis is energy intensive--with whatever impact on the environment as the power generation it relies on--it is not as energy intensive as the internal combustion that currently drives long-haul trucking.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2019, 02:51:35 PM
so the proposed Tesla Semi would be for short hauls, less than 500 miles?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:10:26 PM
Hydrogen is most often derived from natural gas, leaving carbon as the residue.  It's more energy efficient than electrolysis of water.  It's still highly energy intensive, and the product has to be cooled which is even more energy intensive.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 10, 2019, 03:14:07 PM
so the proposed Tesla Semi would be for short hauls, less than 500 miles?
Tesla advertises a 300 or 500 mile range. Impacted, presumably, by grade changes. Presumably climbs over mountain ranges will dramatically reduce the battery life.
So as long as the trucker is planning trips along flat, rapid battery recharging routes, great.
I hope I'm wrong, though. I'm all for an effective electric fleet (and without human drivers, please).
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 10, 2019, 03:15:22 PM
Hydrogen is most often derived from natural gas, leaving carbon as the residue.  It's more energy efficient than electrolysis of water.  It's still highly energy intensive, and the product has to be cooled which is even more energy intensive.
I get that. How does its efficiency compare to the internal combustion engine. I understand it is still favorable, but maybe I'm mistaken.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:15:29 PM
Tesla, and Musk, have been know at times to make statements and promises that later turned out to be fairy dust.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:18:59 PM
Efficiency measured how?  The efficiency of a fuel cell is very high compared to any heat engine.  It's a chemical reaction.  

The efficiency of the entire chain required for them is another story.  You can take natural gas and burned it in say a turbine at reasonable efficiencies and generate electricity that is delivered over the wires pretty efficiently.

Or, you can crack the NG into hydrogen and coal, which is "efficient" but VERY energy intensive, and then take the hydrogen and cool it to 10 Kelvin, which is efficient but VERY energy intensive, and then ship it somehow to a distribution outlet.

The energy required overall to propel a vehicle is less for battery system, by a lot.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2019, 03:19:56 PM
Tesla, and Musk, have been know at times to make statements and promises that later turned out to be fairy dust.
That charge may be unfair to fairy dust. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 10, 2019, 03:21:32 PM
I still don't understand how plug-in hybrid never took off. Seems like it's the absolute perfect solution.

Battery power for most of your around-town trips so that you rarely if ever have to top off the gasoline tank, but you retain every single bit of range and ease of refueling for the long haul trips.

And by reducing the battery range, you can keep the battery cost and weight down to reasonable levels. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 03:28:30 PM
The plug in hybrids didn't offer enough advantage over regular hybrids in most driving.  I thought the Volt was a marvel and hit a sweet spot, but obviously it was not a success in the market, perhaps in part because gas is so cheap.  I helped my kid buy a Chevy Cruze with a Diesel that gets over 60 mpg on the highway.  And a Toyota hybrid will get 45 mpg around town, easily.  The Volt was complicated and heavy, and basically required the fancy charger like an EV.  If you only drive around town, an EV is a better choice.

If you drive intercity, a hydrid or Diesel would be better I think.

An interesting use for fuel cells is "load leveling" when wind turbines generate too much power, use that power to produce hydrogen for fuel cells that operate later when the wind isn't blowing.

Article on relative efficiency of fuel cell versus a battery:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 10, 2019, 04:38:53 PM
I would have purchased a plug-in hybrid rather than the traditional hybrid, but the specs didn't work. Unfortunately, the car we were seriously considering (the Honda Clarity) has had too many reliability issues for us to be willing to spend the money on it. It helped our decision that we liked the Accord better, but we still likely would have gone for the Clarity, but for the reliability problems. And yeah, I get around 48 MPG in my Accord hybrid.

CD: the vehicle miles traveled is the key metric for the efficiency question, i.e., what is the total energy consumption--and total carbon emissions--per mile. My understanding is that even with all its inefficiencies, hydrogen fuel cells still beat internal combustion by a comfortable margin, but perhaps not.

Battery technology has certainly improved a great deal, but (again, my lay person's understanding) physics present serious limitations on further massive gains.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 10, 2019, 05:32:47 PM
Hydrogen from gas is not cost-effective (nor does it make any sense), but as more renewables are deployed, hydrogen production is an alternative to deploying energy storage to prevent wind and solar from being curtailed during periods of excess generation (eg. early afternoon for solar, middle of the night for wind), which would also make hydrogen much more cost-effective. This is already done in Germany.

I may have mentioned this before, but the big opportunity to me for hydrogen is in heating. There's also a push for electrification of HVAC and appliances that are often run on gas (stoves, ovens, etc.), such as some new construction residential developments in California which opted not to include any gas lines, but hydrogen can be mixed with natural gas and eventually gas utilities could theoretically just use hydrogen if it becomes cost-effective and/or legislation requires it. Australia and the UK are already testing this out.

Despite the on-going attempts by Tesla and a few other companies, I don't see electrification of long-distance freight as viable (but for school buses, city buses, mail trucks, maintenance vehicles, and the like, it should be over time.... I just saw today that there's even a company retrofitting small seaplanes to be electric-powered, and it's cost-effective), but whether hydrogen beats out compressed natural gas or not for long-distance transportation is up for debate.

That said, the energy density of batteries is continuing to improve, so there may be more uses for them than previously thought as that continues to improve.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 06:16:43 PM
Well, hydrogen has to be made from something.  Those chemical bonds take energy to break, it's inherent.

The simple cycle is water electrolysis as you remake water when you get the energy back out of course, water in, water out, and a lot of energy in between, both input and output.

And we already have the electricity infrastructure obviously.  It's hard to beat something that already is paid for.  We'd need more generating capability of course if we go to EVs on a large scale, it's a pretty sig percentage.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 10, 2019, 06:45:17 PM
I hope you guys in the path of the "historic" bizzard that is supposed to hit the north-central plains Friday are getting ready to batten down the hatches.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 06:59:07 PM
Yeah, I read about that.  The wife was complaining that I was stinky on the elevator after our walk.  It was 80°F here.  Thank goodness for air conditioning.

I remember as a kid asking folks how AC worked and nobody could tell me, not even my teachers.  I wish I had had the Internet back then.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2019, 07:05:04 PM
Nice video in this link I posted before if you're interested in comparing fuel cells and batteries.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/)

It talks about efficiencies.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2019, 09:52:00 PM
I hope you guys in the path of the "historic" bizzard that is supposed to hit the north-central plains Friday are getting ready to batten down the hatches.
I'm a few miles south and east of the blizzard line
thankfully
I-29 from Sioux City north is closed
this happens in April from time to time
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 10, 2019, 10:06:50 PM
There's also a push for electrification of HVAC and appliances that are often run on gas (stoves, ovens, etc.)
could not care less when it comes to ovens, but I'd fight to the death to keep a gas range over an electric cooktop. Electric cooktops just pale in comparison to a kick ass gas range. They actually suck compared to a gas range.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 10, 2019, 10:30:43 PM
My house has been ALL electric since it was built in 1981

but, I like my V-8 gassers in vehicles
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 10, 2019, 11:15:00 PM
I definitely prefer gas ranges.

"They say" electric convection ovens are superior, and that's what we have, but only because that's what the house had when we bought it.  I have no experience with gas convection ovens (is there such a thing?) to determine whether or not it's better.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 06:54:25 AM
The electric ovens definitely hold their temps better*. Gotta have 220 to make them go, so you can't just change it out easily. I wanted to in our old place, but the conduit from the box to the stove outlet was not large enough to carry the heavy gage wire. I was not gonna start tearing up drywall and other things, so, I ended up with the full gas range instead of the electric/gas combo.



Much like MDot, big brother would have to come shoot me to take my gas stove away. I might even shoot back.



It snowed here yesterday. Mother nature is not funny. She's a bitch.




* the good ones
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 11, 2019, 07:21:22 AM
I'm a few miles south and east of the blizzard line
thankfully
I'm sure the Blizzard will stick to the flight plans the meteorologists lay out for it
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 07:29:02 AM
Yeah we've got 220 (221... whatever it takes) to the wall oven and the dryer.  Which makes me recall, our dryer is gas as well.  The oven seems to work well, better than the gas one in our old house, but that also was not a convection oven. The gas drier works extremely well.

But like you, it's the gas cooktop I wouldn't want to do without.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 07:55:37 AM
I strongly prefer the induction cook top to gas, as does the wife.  I was OK with the stove that was in the unit, which was regular electric, but the wife rather insisted we replace it with the induction unit we bought.  I was cooking with gas (ha) while we were in Boston, a nice stove, and we both commented how much we preferred induction.

It does require special ferromagnetic cookware.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 11:01:01 AM
Never used induction and don't have any desire to retrofit for it.  If I somehow moved into a house that already had it, I suppose I'd purchase the appropriate cookware and use it.

As far as gas to regular electric, there's no comparison. Regular electric is miserable and I'd never go back to it, even if the gubment tried to force me.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2019, 11:05:28 AM
I'm sure the Blizzard will stick to the flight plans the meteorologists lay out for it
so far, so good!
just rain and wind
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 11:08:18 AM
The regular electric is awful.  If we had gas I'd keep it.  As I said, we swapped out a perfectly good electric range for induction (adding another $3300 to the cost of the kitchen).  I've used the new stove a few times and it is remarkably better than conduction.

The wife wanted gas in the old kitchen until we got induction.  If you are in the market for a new stove somehow, I'd strongly suggest considering induction.  It works better than gas and of course is easier to clean.  The other advantage is that it doesn't heat up the kitchen in summer due to heat bypassing the cooking pot.  That is important around here.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 11:34:09 AM
Not looking for a new cooktop any time in the next decade, but I'll keep it in mind. :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 11:40:46 AM
Does the top scratch on those things? Cast iron skillet??
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 01:20:50 PM
I imagine the top could scratch, but ours in Cincy never did at all.  The top material is the same as with regular electric burners.

Cast iron works on it, I don't know what happens if you "shake" the skillet on the surface.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 02:10:26 PM
I don't trust electromagnetism, no sirree.  Just good ol' flame for me.



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 02:27:07 PM
We all interact with electromagnetism on a daily basis.  Life would be rather difficult without it.


The unification of electric and magnetic phenomena in a complete mathematical theory was the achievement of the Scottish physicist Maxwell (http://abyss.uoregon.edu/~js/glossary/maxwell.html) (1850's). In a set of four elegant equations, Maxwell formalized the relationship between electric and magnetic fields. In addition, he showed that a linear magnetic and electric field can be self-reinforcing and must move at a particular velocity, the speed of light. Thus, he concluded that light is energy carried in the form of opposite but supporting electric and magnetic fields in the shape of waves, i.e. self-propagating electromagnetic waves.


(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fabyss.uoregon.edu%2F%7Ejs%2Fimages%2Fmaxwell_eq.gif&hash=ccdf895cf5d087211756d7e496b8f153)
  • Maxwell's new theory provides a new description of light, as electromagnetic waves
  • electromagnetism represents a sharp change in the way Nature is described, i.e. the use of invisible fields and understanding that can only be communicated with mathematics
[size=-1]In doing this, Maxwell moved physics to a new realm of understanding. By using field theory as the core to electromagnetism, we have moved beyond a Newtonian worldview where objects change by direct contact and into a theory that uses invisible fields. This introduces a type of understanding which can only be described with a type of mathematics that cannot be directly translated into language. In other words, scientists where restricted in talking about electromagnetic phenomenon strictly through the use of a new type of language, one of pure math.[/size]

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 02:31:45 PM
Maxwell's Equations
Integral form in the absence of magnetic or polarizable media:
I. Gauss' law for electricity (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq2.html#c1)(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu%2Fhbase%2Felectric%2Fimgel2%2Fmaxw1.gif&hash=e70356a7392b210c85e601a085389334)


II. Gauss' law for magnetism (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq2.html#c2)(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu%2Fhbase%2Felectric%2Fimgel2%2Fmaxw2.gif&hash=e037d669f467d2cae50cdfbcf9aafd30)
III. Faraday's law of induction (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq2.html#c3)(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu%2Fhbase%2Felectric%2Fimgel2%2Fmaxw3.gif&hash=33b7ca2d850cedd21bdb7b696f7b27a9)
IV. Ampere's law (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq2.html#c4)(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu%2Fhbase%2Felectric%2Fimgel2%2Fmaxw4.gif&hash=1fefecf79bd18bb2d09ae0c01a7c4f26)

Those are the four allegedly "elegant" equations.  I can recall getting a few headaches from them back in the day.
Differential form (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq.html#c3)Discussion (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/electric/maxeq.html#c1)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 11, 2019, 02:36:35 PM
I don't trust electromagnetism, no sirree.  Just good ol' flame for me.
I'm kinda with you, but along the same lines I think typical home range burners are just too wimpy. 
I want a badass gas range with an integrated wok burner. Something that can put out serious BTUs. 
And whether they're gas or electric (don't care), a double oven. 
In my dream kitchen, it's going to more resemble a restaurant kitchen than a home kitchen. But probably less stainless steel--gotta keep the Mrs happy ;-) 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 02:37:32 PM
I don't trust electromagnetism, no sirree.  Just good ol' flame for me.
Me too!!
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toonpool.com%2Fuser%2F997%2Ffiles%2Fcaveman_fire_greenhouse_gases_1135865.jpg&hash=881d1198b104b5c6e22d268542c76683)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 11, 2019, 02:39:54 PM
I just want a 10 min pizza oven.  I'd end up putting all sorts of rubbish through it to see what worked well and what didn't.  Maybe some bacon grilled cheese or something.  Hot anything in 10 min.  Yes, please, and thank you...and it would keep the house warm.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 02:42:29 PM
I'm kinda with you, but along the same lines I think typical home range burners are just too wimpy.
I want a badass gas range with an integrated wok burner. Something that can put out serious BTUs.
And whether they're gas or electric (don't care), a double oven.
In my dream kitchen, it's going to more resemble a restaurant kitchen than a home kitchen. But probably less stainless steel--gotta keep the Mrs happy ;-)
I'm using a Wolf now. That thing kicks some serious ass.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 02:50:16 PM
https://www.finecooking.com/article/how-an-induction-cooktop-works (https://www.finecooking.com/article/how-an-induction-cooktop-works)

 Thus, on an induction cooktop, the heat is coming not from the burner, but the pan itself.  This can make for more efficient cooking–a pot of water will come to a boil on an induction stove in almost half the time of a standard gas stove. You’re also less likely to have hot spots in your pan, where food gets scorched because it has more contact with the heat source below. And, once you remove the pan, an induction cooktop cools off faster than a conventional burner, because it was only hot from contact with the pan.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 03:34:55 PM
Dude... Cincy... I love you man. But...

I have a degree in electrical engineering and was a practicing engineer for over a decade. I'm pretty familiar with electromagnetism...
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2019, 03:39:10 PM
my wimpy electric range top gets plenty hot enough to burn almost anything edible

and I'm a patient man, waiting a few minutes for water to boil doesn't bother me
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 03:47:35 PM
I'm using a Wolf now. That thing kicks some serious ass.
Wolf is a great product. I think the best high end ranges are from Dacor, personally. Viking is nice looking but quality is garbage. Miele and Gaggenau are great German products- but good luck getting those serviced. If I had 100K to blow on a rage, I'd get a top of the line La Cornue just for the freaking looks. Those babies are GORGEOUS.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 03:51:08 PM
I just want a 10 min pizza oven.  I'd end up putting all sorts of rubbish through it to see what worked well and what didn't.  Maybe some bacon grilled cheese or something.  Hot anything in 10 min.  Yes, please, and thank you...and it would keep the house warm.
Standard ovens you buy for the home are terrible for pizza making. If you want to make real pizza you need to get a Stefano Ferrara oven from Italy.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 11, 2019, 03:52:00 PM
In my dream kitchen.....
as long as we're dreaming I won't be doing any of the cooking.It'll be made nightly by the ATK crew and I'll be served by a good looking Michigan Grad - I know there's a few out there.I'll be living in an airy Roman-Greco Villa with a mountain spring on one side from which Oktoberfest will be made from all year long.And on the other side will be a volcanic mineral hot springs.I will have a round American wife and she will raise rabbits for our culinary delight
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 03:52:44 PM
Dude... Cincy... I love you man. But...

I have a degree in electrical engineering and was a practicing engineer for over a decade. I'm pretty familiar with electromagnetism...
I was jerking your chain, with good effect, don't be so sensAtive.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 03:53:01 PM
I'm kinda with you, but along the same lines I think typical home range burners are just too wimpy.
I want a badass gas range with an integrated wok burner. Something that can put out serious BTUs.
And whether they're gas or electric (don't care), a double oven.
In my dream kitchen, it's going to more resemble a restaurant kitchen than a home kitchen. But probably less stainless steel--gotta keep the Mrs happy ;-)
Most gas ranges they sell at Home Depot or Lowes or Best Buy are kinda garbage. Not exactly the best. Hard to find quality when you are buying a gas range for $900. Most of the high end luxury appliance maker ranges are every bit as good as the commercial ones that restaurants buy- the drawback- they are expensive as hell.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 11, 2019, 03:54:42 PM
I don't trust electromagnetism, no sirree.  Just good ol' flame for me.
Prolly Burnt Orange
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 11, 2019, 03:55:12 PM
We have a Wolf that we like, but the springs in the knobs have been a little glitchy. First world problems.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 03:56:53 PM
Standard ovens you buy for the home are terrible for pizza making. If you want to make real pizza you need to get a Stefano Ferrara oven from Italy.
Have you seen those electric ones that get up to 1000 degrees? Just curious how those things rate. Of course, I would love to have a wood burning pizza oven. It would see a lot more things than just pizza.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 11, 2019, 03:57:11 PM
I was jerking your chain, with good effect, don't be so sensAtive.
That's a character flaw in almost all Horns - too golderned sensitive
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 11, 2019, 04:01:44 PM
Most gas ranges they sell at Home Depot or Lowes or Best Buy are kinda garbage. Not exactly the best. Hard to find quality when you are buying a gas range for $900. Most of the high end luxury appliance maker ranges are every bit as good as the commercial ones that restaurants buy- the drawback- they are expensive as hell.
Exactly. That's why this is for my dream kitchen... You know, when I can spend $5K+ on a range ;-) 
For now, if I *really* want to get a wok ripping hot, I can always use my propane turkey fryer burner on the back porch.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 04:07:51 PM
Have you seen those electric ones that get up to 1000 degrees? Just curious how those things rate. Of course, I would love to have a wood burning pizza oven. It would see a lot more things than just pizza.
haven't really seen them, no. Sounds interesting though.
I just know from experience that making pizza at home in the oven never comes out how you want it.
Never buy pre-made store pizza dough either- even if it's from a place like Fresh Market or Whole Foods. I tried that one time and it was just terrible. You want good pizza dough you've got to make it yourself, and if you want good pizza you've got to have the right oven. That's what it's all about- the dough and the oven. That's 99% of the battle right there.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:17:16 PM
I think with most things there is a curve of diminishing returns in practical terms.  The low priced stuff is usually junk.  The mid priced stuff is OK.  The medium high priced stuff is good.

I think for a car a $30K Honda Accord is a really good car, and others like it.  You can spend $60 K on a Mercedes and there is a difference of course, but at twice the cost, versus a really good car.  We looked at a Miele induction that was $7700.  Nope.  This kitchen redo is already over $40 K as it is, for a small kitchen, the wife went a bit haywire on some redo stuff.

My buddy has that incredible stereo system, he's the one who spent well over $2 K on the speaker cables.  Mine is fine with me, and nothing beats live.  Camera gear?  I look at the lenses the pros are using these days and they are insanely expensive.  Mine are just bottom of the line Nikkor stuff, but I'm not a pro at all.  They can shoot better stuff with my gear than I can with theirs.

Baseball equipment?  Yikes, it gets pricey.  A standard MLB baseball these days is $35, each, retail.  It won't help me any.  Running shoes?  

Wine?  Oops.  I'm doing really well sticking to $20-30 aided greatly by the much lower wine prices here.  I picked up a case today of a wine that is half the price it would be in Ohio.  I have had some high end wine in my life and in general it is really really good, to me.  But I can't drink that once in a blue moon.

Beer?  We stopped off at a new bar during a walk and I had a glass (draft) of Two Hearted IPA, I really like that stuff.  With tip it came to $9 but I overtipped a bit.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:18:17 PM
I saw a purpose made pizza oven in Costco for $3300.  I pondered how many really good pizzas I can buy for $3300 already made.

https://www.costco.com/Forno-Venetzia-Pronto-500-Outdoor-Wood-Burning-Pizza-Oven.product.100419075.html (https://www.costco.com/Forno-Venetzia-Pronto-500-Outdoor-Wood-Burning-Pizza-Oven.product.100419075.html)

This one is $2 K.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2019, 04:20:13 PM
That's a character flaw in almost all Horns - too golderned sensitive
you didn't hear this from me
I spell it, "sensative"
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:23:15 PM
Speaking of food, the wife just sent me this link with "I hope we have time to go":

http://www.il-etait-une-oie.fr/en/menus/ (http://www.il-etait-une-oie.fr/en/menus/)

That's our favorite place in Paris.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 11, 2019, 04:24:36 PM
probably cheaper to fly to Paris and dine there than to invest the time and money to be able to prepare it yourself in your kitchen
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:28:52 PM
Prices have gone up of late on direct flights.  I can mess around and get some cheaper by flying to Boston and then to Ireland.  We're going in May, I'll tough it out.  The wife is no longer Diamond Medallion, bummer.  I'm no longer anything.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 04:35:13 PM
Prices have gone up of late on direct flights.  I can mess around and get some cheaper by flying to Boston and then to Ireland.  We're going in May, I'll tough it out.  The wife is no longer Diamond Medallion, bummer.  I'm no longer anything.
Norwegian Air has ridiculously cheap direct flights to Paris from a lot of US cities. They have some fares for as low as $145 each way for basic economy. Direct. Non-stop. Their entire fleet is also brand new Boeings. Insane that they are able to sell some tickets that cheap.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 04:52:17 PM
Norwegian Air has ridiculously cheap direct flights to Paris from a lot of US cities. They have some fares for as low as $145 each way for basic economy. Direct. Non-stop. Their entire fleet is also brand new Boeings. Insane that they are able to sell some tickets that cheap.
Only from certain coastal cities. NYC, Florida, Cali. Nothing from Chicago, for sure. I checked with them and by the time I got to NYC, paid for the upgrades and all the BS... I ended up using American. It was a little more, but the mileage program tipped it in for me. That, and I could find nothing direct to Rome, at the time.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:54:17 PM
The "brand new Boeings" is not quite the attraction is may once have been.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 04:55:06 PM
The wife worked for the company that made the engines for the brand new Boeings, which apparently were not implicated.

Those engines technically are pretty neat.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 05:07:51 PM
The "brand new Boeings" is not quite the attraction is may once have been.
These are Dreamliners. No problems with those anymore. Apparently the battery thing is fixed.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 11, 2019, 05:08:49 PM
Norwegian Air has ridiculously cheap direct flights to Paris from a lot of US cities. They have some fares for as low as $145 each way for basic economy. Direct. Non-stop. Their entire fleet is also brand new Boeings. Insane that they are able to sell some tickets that cheap.
Damn. From LAX to Paris, when I start looking at stuff in the fall, it's $400 r/t. That's not bad!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 05:11:34 PM
These are Dreamliners. No problems with those anymore. Apparently the battery thing is fixed.
they have some of the 737 MAX that they use in Europe, but they grounded those.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 05:13:17 PM
The "brand new Boeings" is not quite the attraction is may once have been.
Lol. Touche.
They don't fly the 737 MAX in the US though. They only fly from the US to Europe, and those flights are on the Dreamliners. They only fly the 737 Max inside of Europe, but they've grounded those planes.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 05:16:26 PM
Yeah, I know the 737 MAX is more short haul trips. 

I received a very interesting review of the LEAP X engines in Paris 4 years or so back.  Fascinating tech.

Our daughter flies over through Ireland and Boston for about $400.  The wife doesn't want to do that.  She's uber loyal to Delta, which fortunately does fly some out of ATL.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 11, 2019, 05:45:12 PM
It's an N of 1, but we had a TERRIBLE experience on Norwegian flying home from Italy. Some was just basic flying garbage (flight changed from departing at 7 am to 5 am--makes a little difference in your last night there with kids). They charge you for EVERYTHING. Except clean bathrooms...they just didn't offer those. And after charging us for food, they delivered it at the oddest times (it was really, really weird how they did this--I don't remember the details, I just remember how strange and annoying it was), and ran out of vegetarian, despite the specific order (well in advance of the flight), and strung us out in telling us that was what happened to the point where we couldn't get anything delivered to that child because their food service had ended. Add to that flight attendants who were the furthest thing from service oriented. 

I think in the end, it saved us a little money over a major airline, but it wasn't enough to be worth it. Maybe flying as just adults you can accept it all a little better because you're less concerned about the feelings of others, but with a 13- and 11-year old it SUCKED. (The kids handled it fine, but the parents were not happy.)

But the plane was new.

Conversely, we had really good experiences on TAP Portugal (though without the new planes).
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 06:08:40 PM
Delta did some amazing things for my wife last year.  I was impressed, and it wasn't because of her status either.

(Her status is that she's married to me, the famous Cincydawg of a billion posts.)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 11, 2019, 06:58:37 PM
It's an N of 1, but we had a TERRIBLE experience on Norwegian flying home from Italy. Some was just basic flying garbage (flight changed from departing at 7 am to 5 am--makes a little difference in your last night there with kids). They charge you for EVERYTHING. Except clean bathrooms...they just didn't offer those. And after charging us for food, they delivered it at the oddest times (it was really, really weird how they did this--I don't remember the details, I just remember how strange and annoying it was), and ran out of vegetarian, despite the specific order (well in advance of the flight), and strung us out in telling us that was what happened to the point where we couldn't get anything delivered to that child because their food service had ended. Add to that flight attendants who were the furthest thing from service oriented.

I think in the end, it saved us a little money over a major airline, but it wasn't enough to be worth it. Maybe flying as just adults you can accept it all a little better because you're less concerned about the feelings of others, but with a 13- and 11-year old it SUCKED. (The kids handled it fine, but the parents were not happy.)

But the plane was new.

Conversely, we had really good experiences on TAP Portugal (though without the new planes).
I've flown Norwegian twice, and both times it was just fine. Can't really complain at all. Especially for the price. The time changing might have more to do with Italy then the airline. Nothing runs on schedule in Italy.
Both of my experiences with the airline were just fine. On one of the trips I only paid $179 for the base fare plus another $80 think for their plus package which just lets you pick your seat, check a bag, and get two meals- a dinner and a small breakfast. I paid $229 and another $80 on the way back for the same thing. It was like $570 out the door, round-trip, non-stop direct to Paris. Hard to beat that. Planes were brand new and clean, I picked an aisle seat on exit row. Plenty of room for the legs and they had lot of viewing options on the tv and charge ports in the seat to charge phones/laptops/ipads.
Honestly, to me it wasn't even worth it to pay the upcharge for the seat, bag, and meal. If I had to do it again, I wouldn't. They arleady let you carry on a bag up to 15 kg- which is over 30 pounds and if you pack right, that shouldn't be a problem at all. They also let you carry on a backpack and personal item as well. That's plenty of room for all your shit. Plus- I absolutely hate waiting at baggage claim. I much prefer carrying on and getting off the plane and leaving. The food sucks, like it does on every airline and I don't even eat it. I just fricken sleep on long flights like that man. I take a pill and have a shot or two and I'm out. If it's an 8 hr flight I'm sleeping for at least 7 hours of it. The only time I'd need any fancy shmancy is if it's a short flight and I can't sleep and the mind starts wandering. 8-10 hour flights are perfect for me cause I just sleep 95% of them.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2019, 07:32:22 PM
I can't sleep on a plane. Even with Xanax. That's not to say I won't try in a couple of weeks. Italy beckons.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 11, 2019, 07:42:00 PM
I can't sleep on a plane, even in first class.  Maybe with these new fold down seats I could.  But air fare up front is $7000.  No way.

I'll pony for comfort seats but they are getting pricey now.

The good news is that I own a bit of stock in Delta.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 11, 2019, 07:43:40 PM
Exactly. That's why this is for my dream kitchen... You know, when I can spend $5K+ on a range ;-)
For now, if I *really* want to get a wok ripping hot, I can always use my propane turkey fryer burner on the back porch.
word up.  My turkey fryer burner is like a jet engine.  It shoots through schools.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2019, 12:13:24 AM
I remember that movie. That joke didn't age so well.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2019, 12:27:08 AM
I remember that movie. That joke didn't age so well.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2019, 06:45:33 AM
I can't sleep on a plane, even in first class.  Maybe with these new fold down seats I could.  But air fare up front is $7000.  No way.

I'll pony for comfort seats but they are getting pricey now.

The good news is that I own a bit of stock in Delta.
We had the sleeper seats on a flight back from Maui a few years back. I didn't sleep.
We do the best seats we can afford, but nothing less than premium economy now. Even though I'm not tall (like you), I like not having a seat 3" in front of my face. I've got a little problem with confined space too, hence the Xanax. That started maybe a few years ago. It's weird.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 12, 2019, 07:42:42 AM
I've had mild claustrophobia since my teen years.  It sucks.

I've also developed a recent aversion to large crowds which is part of what keeps me away from going to more large sporting events and arena concerts.  But it might simply because I hate people, and nothing to do with a true phobia... ;)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2019, 07:53:20 AM
Hey, I'm adopted. Who knows, brother!!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2019, 08:11:30 AM
The wife booked regular seats to Boston and back.  I was at the limit for a two hour flight, knees touching seat in front of me.  They were cheap tickets.  She's used to being upgraded to comfort seats or first, not happening, flight was full.  A321 had movies available which helped.  I watched Apollo 11.

When comfort seats first came out, the price was cheap, but that lasted about a year or so.  I've been in domestic first class obviously and it's just wider seats, not more leg room, and not really anything else better except more bin room.  The BOS trip was pretty cheap as our hosts lent us a car, that Mimi Cooper S (which in no way impressed me).  I bought most of the food we ate and wine.  Our host liked the wine.  I picked up half a case in NH because it was cheaper than in MA, go figure.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2019, 01:38:05 PM
I have problems flying coach at 6'5" 260#+, but don't have alternatives. Every time my knees are in touching seat in front of me. Not pleasant, but I do it anyway.

And @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) I get it about hating people. This is the license plate I want...

(https://scontent-lax3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/56907721_390285145036459_8625724176520445952_n.png?_nc_cat=105&_nc_ht=scontent-lax3-2.xx&oh=7975682ae418981a22c2a90234e80181&oe=5D372CF9)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 01:44:25 PM
I can't sleep on a plane, even in first class.  Maybe with these new fold down seats I could.  But air fare up front is $7000.  No way.

I'll pony for comfort seats but they are getting pricey now.

The good news is that I own a bit of stock in Delta.
$7,000 is kinda the starting price on flights for those pod seats that fold into beds. Sometimes they can be like $9,000 or more. If you were buying multiple tickets, at that price point it'd almost make more sense to charter a private jet. I suspect that most people booking those seats with Delta are using Amex points and SkyMiles to bring the cost of those seats way down. Regardless, that sort of pricing is insane. There are airlines that have even crazier pricing. I think it's either Singapore or Emirates airline maybe that sells like almost a little cabin to yourself- and I emphasize the word little- for something ridiculous like $25,000. I just can't imagine people booking those that often. Let's say a man and his wife and their two kids are buying that ticket. If that guy has $100k to spend on a few tickets to fly one time, he's probably got enough dough to own or charter a private jet.
Airline stocks used to be horrible because of all the competition kept pricing down and ate into profitability. Like most everything else in this country, everything has been consolidated and oligopolized. There were 15-20 major airlines in the US. Now there are 4- Delta, Southwest, United, and American- and those 4 have 80+% of the entire US market share. Now their pricing is all essentially the same and they offer basically all the same services and their ability to control the market and protect profitability is there- and now they are great stocks to own.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 12, 2019, 02:55:59 PM
I've also developed a recent aversion to large crowds which is part of what keeps me away from going to more large sporting events and arena concerts.;)
I've developed a recent aversion to parting with large amounts of cash that keeps me from going to sporting events and arena concerts
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 03:22:33 PM
I've developed a recent aversion to parting with large amounts of cash that keeps me from going to sporting events and arena concerts
Ha. True that. It's insane just how much the costs of attending concerts and sporting events have skyrocketed. They just keep raising the god damn prices of the tickets, concessions, and parking and ask regular people to pay more and more, all the while the BILLIONAIRES who own those teams and those stadiums get sweetheart deals from the govt to use public money in the form of tax breaks, bonds/secured loans, land gifts, etc., etc.. These are some of the richest people in the motherf'ing world- they can self finance or get private lenders to help them build their stadiums- and yet they get stupid gov't officials to give them hand outs.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2019, 04:25:37 PM
Airline stocks used to be horrible because of all the competition kept pricing down and ate into profitability. Like most everything else in this country, everything has been consolidated and oligopolized. There were 15-20 major airlines in the US. Now there are 4- Delta, Southwest, United, and American- and those 4 have 80+% of the entire US market share. Now their pricing is all essentially the same and they offer basically all the same services and their ability to control the market and protect profitability is there- and now they are great stocks to own.
I think the airlines have gotten a lot smarter about ways to keep planes flying full, too. Instead of offering as many routes and schedules as they used to, they cut back to make sure that an airplane isn't going somewhere with 75% excess capacity. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 04:36:44 PM
I think the airlines have gotten a lot smarter about ways to keep planes flying full, too. Instead of offering as many routes and schedules as they used to, they cut back to make sure that an airplane isn't going somewhere with 75% excess capacity.
Yup. This is a major part of it as well. Flights are usually full. In fact they often overbook their flights. There are always horror stories in the news about this. Wasn't it American Airlines not too long ago where the security physically beat the shit out of a man and dragged him off an overbooked plane?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 12, 2019, 05:06:29 PM
Yup. This is a major part of it as well. Flights are usually full. In fact they often overbook their flights. There are always horror stories in the news about this. Wasn't it American Airlines not too long ago where the security physically beat the shit out of a man and dragged him off an overbooked plane?
Yeah, that was United, not American. Around the same time United was getting a lot of flak for dead dogs.

Not great for PR. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2019, 05:11:42 PM
Flights do seem more full than 20 years ago when I was flying for business.  Our Boston flights were both 100% full.

Delta has four flights a day to Paris from here.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 12, 2019, 05:23:54 PM
Ha. True that. It's insane just how much the costs of attending concerts and sporting events have skyrocketed. They just keep raising the god damn prices of the tickets, concessions, and parking and ask regular people to pay more and more, all the while the BILLIONAIRES who own those teams and those stadiums get sweetheart deals from the govt to use public money in the form of tax breaks, bonds/secured loans, land gifts, etc., etc.. These are some of the richest people in the motherf'ing world- they can self finance or get private lenders to help them build their stadiums- and yet they get stupid gov't officials to give them hand outs.
I really just wish that collectively the fans would just mail it in.IMO the Federal Gov't should step in on theses stadium deals moving forward - talk about welfare for the rich.Years ago there were some  economist/business types that wrote a book and points out paying for stadiums is really a LOSE.When you factor in the tax breaks and the very few people who actually benefit from having a franchise.It's not the people paying for it.They get rewarded by getting priced right the hell out.After the Browns moved I voted against every public funded facility and they still get pushed thru.I really believe the fix is in with so  much money on the table.Not one guy I talked to EVER wanted to pay more for Beer/whiskey/wine/smokes,etc or voted for either baseball/football stadiums
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 12, 2019, 05:32:51 PM
I think private financing of sports venues is on the rise, fortunately. The interesting thing is it's more common in for soccer and college sports. This article explains it pretty well: https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2018/12/21/no-new-taxes-cities-seeking-new-soccer-specific-stadiums-exhibit-similar-pr-financial-tactics/#328367395e2d (https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2018/12/21/no-new-taxes-cities-seeking-new-soccer-specific-stadiums-exhibit-similar-pr-financial-tactics/#328367395e2d)

But yes, I did see in that same search that Indiana has passed a bill to pay for a soccer stadium for what isn't currently even an MLS team.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2019, 05:36:19 PM
I am annoyed that the Braves moved out of a perfectly fine stadium finished in 1997 and moved to one of the most traffic plagued parts of the city in the NW with no mass transit.

The Falcons got new digs downtown of course paid for in part with a hotel tax.  Money is fungible, the old GA Dome was not exactly decrepit built around 1992.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 12, 2019, 05:43:47 PM
Great Points CD - so I wasn't the only one scratching my head.The country needs to get back to the basics.Taking the wrecking ball to structures designed to last 5-6-7 decades isn't good for a sound economy.Just unbelievably ridiculous
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 07:00:25 PM
Great Points CD - so I wasn't the only one scratching my head.The country needs to get back to the basics.Taking the wrecking ball to structures designed to last 5-6-7 decades isn't good for a sound economy.Just unbelievably ridiculous
yeah it's getting crazy. it seems like nowadays they want to replace a stadium every 20-25 years. These megastructures were built to last a lot longer then that. Shit look at Michigan/OSU's football stadiums. They were both built in the 1920s and are still around. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 12, 2019, 07:11:17 PM
I thought the Volt was a marvel and hit a sweet spot, but obviously it was not a success in the market, perhaps in part because gas is so cheap.
the Volt and the Bolt were ugly pieces of shit and their complete and utter failure had nothing to due with gas prices and everything to do with GM being a backwards ass thinking company that for the most part still makes shitty products that people don't really want to buy, and just wind up buying because of heavy marketing and great lease deals/pricing.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Entropy on April 12, 2019, 07:37:08 PM
the Volt and the Bolt were ugly pieces of shit and their complete and utter failure had nothing to due with gas prices and everything to do with GM being a backwards ass thinking company that for the most part still makes shitty products that people don't really want to buy, and just wind up buying because of heavy marketing and great lease deals/pricing.
so.... you liked them?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2019, 09:42:35 PM
Volt = garbage. One of my harbor mates had one. Couldn't wait to sell it, at 30% of his cost. Garbage.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 09:43:28 AM
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/european-renewables-are-up-so-are-carbon-emissions#gs.5drd83 (https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/european-renewables-are-up-so-are-carbon-emissions#gs.5drd83)

European Union carbon emissions grew 1.8 percent in 2017 despite a 25 percent increase in wind power and 6 percent growth in solar, figures show. The European statistics body Eurostat this month reported that carbon dioxide emissions rose last year in a majority of EU member states.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 09:46:27 AM
the Volt and the Bolt were ugly pieces of shit and their complete and utter failure had nothing to due with gas prices and everything to do with GM being a backwards ass thinking company that for the most part still makes shitty products that people don't really want to buy, and just wind up buying because of heavy marketing and great lease deals/pricing.
Chevy had a booth at the festival and I looked at a Bolt (again) for fun.  I thought it looked fine, but that is subjective.  I sat it in, decent room in it, I thought the overall layout was fine.  I don't think styling is holding it back.  It comparative cost, even after the $7500 tax credit (which is going away).  
I can get a roughly comparable Chevy Cruise hatchback for about $10,000 less, and the economics don't pay out for a long long time.
For a company that makes "shitty products", GM is doing remarkably well these days.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 10:06:12 AM
Last year saw EU member states adding a record 15.6 gigawatts of wind power and 340 megawatts of solar. Wind represented 55.2 percent of all new power generation installed in 2017, with solar making up a further 21.3 percent. 
In contrast, new gas plants accounted for just 9.2 percent of capacity additions, and coal was a further 6.1 percent. Despite this, “the reduction of emissions blamed for climate change remains a challenge,” reported Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-carbon-climatechange/eu-carbon-emissions-rose-in-2017-eurostat-idUSKBN1I50YU). "
This is fascinating to me, the added a lot of wind power and a bit of solar and CO2 emissions keep edging higher.  This is basically my point that we're "toast" no matter what, and this is not even bringing China and India into the discussion.  We're going to "run the experiment".

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 13, 2019, 12:13:01 PM
I'm kind of surprised & disappointed that any coal plants were built. Maybe they're more cost-effective in Europe for some reason?

To your point, someday we'll probably need to deploy carbon capture systems or something similar, though.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2019, 12:41:32 PM
For a company that makes "shitty products", GM is doing remarkably well these days.
They need to give marketing a big raise.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 13, 2019, 01:21:15 PM
yeah it's getting crazy. it seems like nowadays they want to replace a stadium every 20-25 years. These megastructures were built to last a lot longer then that. Shit look at Michigan/OSU's football stadiums. They were both built in the 1920s and are still around.
Yup Rose Bowl opened up in 1922,Colosseum in 1923.Hell there are still amphitheaters from Greco-Roman times still in use for little productions in/around the mediterranean
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2019, 01:26:50 PM
Camp Randall - 1917. Still ticking as the oldest in the Big Ten.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 13, 2019, 01:30:00 PM
Didn't know that - you get a Yuengling.I knew the camp was there from the War between the States but not the structure
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 13, 2019, 03:14:07 PM
Chevy had a booth at the festival and I looked at a Bolt (again) for fun.  I thought it looked fine, but that is subjective.  I sat it in, decent room in it, I thought the overall layout was fine.  I don't think styling is holding it back.  It comparative cost, even after the $7500 tax credit (which is going away).  
I can get a roughly comparable Chevy Cruise hatchback for about $10,000 less, and the economics don't pay out for a long long time.
For a company that makes "shitty products", GM is doing remarkably well these days.
There is a bill to keep those tax credits going- $7,000 for 400,000 additional EVs past the 7,5000 @ 200k EVs. Whether it passes or not- who knows.
I wouldn't say GM is doing remarkably well considering they announced plans to close 4 plants, halted production on a bunch of new car models, and announced cuts 15,000+ jobs- all in the last 6 months. Are they doing much better than they were considering they went f'in bankrupt 10 years ago and had to get bailed out by the US gov't and tax payer? Sure. I guess they are doing reasonably well considering the shit show they put themselves in after going belly up by being a short-sighted ass backwards backwards thinking company that made dog shit product for decades. Remarkably well though? Hardly. This was the largest, greatest company in the world with a huge head start on every single one of it's competitors. It should've completely owned the present and the future. It doesn't. Tesla has the future on lock and the foreign autos have been kicking GM's dick in for the last 20 years plus.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 13, 2019, 03:18:40 PM
They need to give marketing a big raise.
marketing and promotional deals is how Ford/GM/Chrysler sell most of their cars. People don't really want them. Most of the times it's all they can afford or they just get a great deal. If you ask someone to name a car they REALLY want, they'd LOVE to buy if money wasn't an issue- no one is buying any of their cars.
You see that especially in Michigan, where just about everyone has a hook up for some crazy employee pricing lease deal. That's why you only see GM/Ford/Chrysler cars in Michigan mostly. Go to another state in another region of the country where they can't get those kind of crazy deals and you see more foreign cars than domestic.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 13, 2019, 03:45:21 PM
I'm done buying cars that rattle after 3 months. My old Volvo with 345K miles on it had less rattles than my wife's new Tahoe back in the day. In fact, it only had one rattle period. Hers had God knows how many, and it didn't take long.



Rattling drives me bonkers. That's one thing I took from the old man. Of course, he was a Buick guy, so.. rattles.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 04:26:28 PM
GM sold 8.4 million vehicles worldwide in 2018.  That's doing remarkably well if they sell shitty products.


They are hanging in there on profit as well.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 04:28:20 PM
I don't see how carbon capture can possible work at any scale.  The energy needed for it is immense.  Entropy and all that.

Europe has rushed into building up wind power, but their carbon emissions are still increasing.  That is my point, you can build wind as fast as possible and barely keep up with demand for new power.  We need something different, but fusion still appears to be a distant dream.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 13, 2019, 06:39:43 PM
GM sold 8.4 million vehicles worldwide in 2018.  That's doing remarkably well if they sell shitty products.


They are hanging in there on profit as well.  
They aren't doing remarkably well, their sales were down across the board around the world in 2018 and it's trending that way again in 2019. And those numbers are currently good for 4th place Worldwide and they are on pace for 5th place worldwide. Hyundai is in 5th place right on their heels, Hyundai's sales were up 2% in 2018 while GM's were down 4%. In a year or two Hyundai will lap them for 4th place and GM will be 5th place world wide. Whoopdie fricken doo. Let's give them a real pat on the back for being the 4th place auto company on their way to 5th place in the world. They were the largest company in the entire world. Not auto company. Company. Period. For decades. And for decades more than 50% of all car sales in the US were GM. Now they are barely hanging onto 16 ish % US marketshare and Toyota is right on their ass with 15%. They had every advantage and opportunity in the world to change and adapt and be cutting edge and create new and innovative products that people loved. And they shit the bed at every single turn and they continue to shit the bed.

Btw a lot of GM world wide sales is bolstered by China- where they actually sell more cars there than they do in the states. And they have to share half that profit with Chinese state owned entities. And their car business is cratering in China right now. Most of their brands are down 30% in sales there. And the morons already shared all their tech with the Chinese, and in 10 1/2 years when all new auto in China will have to be EVs they are going to be left holding the bag with nothing to show. Wholly owned Chinese companies and Tesla and the Japanese and Europeans will dominate that market and GM will be left holding their pricks.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 06:48:27 PM
The are doing "remarkably well if they sell shitty products".

Context is important.

They are doing "OK" in absolute terms.  They intend to sell fewer vehicles at higher profit margins.

Anyway, I don't see anything unique or world beating about the Tesla battery.  Looks to me like a lot of competition is about to hit.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 13, 2019, 07:35:34 PM
The are doing "remarkably well if they sell shitty products".

Context is important.

They are doing "OK" in absolute terms.  They intend to sell fewer vehicles at higher profit margins.

Anyway, I don't see anything unique or world beating about the Tesla battery.  Looks to me like a lot of competition is about to hit.
If you don't see anything unique or world beating about Tesla, than man, I don't know what to tell you. You really need to go drive one with the Ludicrous mode or drive the Model X with the falcon wing doors. They aren't just the best EVs you can buy, they are flat out some of the coolest, best peforming cars you can buy period.

Tesla has a huge advantage with their batteries and the cost they pay for them. How about it's currently $3,500 cheaper with better performance than the Porsche/Audi PPE platform that is still at least 2 years out- probably longer. That cost advantage for Tesla is only going to get bigger over time. Not smaller. They only have the gigafactory battery plant up and running in Nevada and they are building another battery factory/car factory in China right now.

Looks to me like they are way ahead of the competition. By a lot. And oh yeah, did I mention Tesla's customer retention rate is out of this world. By far the best in the industry. More than 80% of the time a Tesla owner goes to replace his car or buy a 2nd new car he buys a Tesla. That kind of customer loyalty in the car business is unheard of.

Porsche Taycan Pre-orders about 20,000. Same for Audi e-tron. Tesla Model 3 pre-orders? 500,000. The new $200,000 Roadster pre-order? 100,000 people tried pre-ordering one and they were only letting the first 1,000 pre-order it- and it crashed their website. They have a fan base and a following that other car companies can only dream of having. 100,000 people tried pre-ordering a $200,000 car. Porsche barely took 20,000 pre-orders for their Taycan. They don't have competition.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2019, 11:26:39 PM
Tesla will be forgotten soon enough.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 14, 2019, 12:04:18 AM
At one point--oh, 6-8 years ago, I think--GM was selling one car model at a profit: the Corvette.  Everything else was losing money or being kept afloat by government subsidies.

You could take that as good news or bad news.  The bad news is how incompetent GM had to be at that time.  The good news is that it is at least somewhat better now.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2019, 07:58:00 AM
The move by GM and Ford to focus on trucks and SUVs is probably necessary.  The move by GM to go heavily into EVs looks risky to me.  Maybe that is more PR than hard plans, we'll see.  The idea of Cadillac being SUVs and EV sedans is a large shift obviously.

The ATL has something like second most EVs in any city in the country because of state subsidies and HOV lane privileges.  I see them frequently on the roads, but I still wonder if they are mostly being bought by "early adopters" and "virtue signalers".  

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/automakers-flood-market-with-electric-vehicles--potentially-creating-pile-up-of-epic-proportions.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/automakers-flood-market-with-electric-vehicles--potentially-creating-pile-up-of-epic-proportions.html)

"There’s just one problem: while sales of battery-based vehicles are on the rise, they still constitute a minuscule fraction of the American, European and Japanese markets. And even though sales are growing in China, they still constitute less than 4 percent of that market’s total. So even as manufacturers push forward, many industry officials fear they could be at risk of wasting billions.

“The equations around electric aren’t making money,” Jack Hollis, general manager of the Toyota (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=7203.T-JP) brand, told trade publication Automotive News on Sunday after meeting with franchisees to discuss future product plans at the National Automobile Dealers Association convention in San Francisco."

Toyota may be playing this correctly, we'll see, emphasizing hybrids and waiting on full EVs.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Mdot21 on April 14, 2019, 07:01:47 PM
Tesla will be forgotten soon enough.
Lmao. Great observation. You sound like that moron Bob Lutz.
You do realize that the Model 3 was the best selling car in the US in 2018 in terms of revenue and the #3 best selling car overall period, right?
You do realize that the Tesla Model S has been by far the best selling full size luxury sedan in the US in 2016, 2017, and 2018. 3 years straight, it has crushed the MB S Class, BMW 7 Series, Audi A8, Lexus LS, and Porsche Panamera. The Model S just absolutely crushes those cars in sales. And it is not even remotely close. They outsell most of those cars...COMBINED. And the Model S isn't a new model like the 3, it's been around since 2011. So whoops- there goes that theory that they'll be forgotten soon.
Don't take my word on Tesla's superiority over it's "competitors" though. Take renowned auto engineer Sandy Munro....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVnRQRdePp4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DucRxWz_58

Oh yeah, forgot to mention- Tesla has a HUGE advantage over all of it's competitors in autonomous driving. 1.1 BILLION real world miles of driving data for it's AI to learn from. Not bullshit simulation miles like Google's operation Waymo. Waymo doesn't even have 13 million real world miles driven. Tesla has 100x the data of REAL WORLD miles.

Oh yeah, also forgot to mention. The Model S gross margins were 20% when the car based at $100,000. The car now bases at $85,000 and their gross margins are up to 31%. Prices dropped and their margins went up. They'll be able to do the same thing with the Model 3 over time and sell a shit ton of them.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2019, 06:08:38 AM
Record tying snow yesterday - 5.4" is the most snow to ever fall in April, in Chicago history. Yay!!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 15, 2019, 08:20:45 AM
I'm done buying cars that rattle after 3 months. My old Volvo with 345K miles on it had less rattles than my wife's new Tahoe back in the day. In fact, it only had one rattle period. Hers had God knows how many, and it didn't take long.



Rattling drives me bonkers. That's one thing I took from the old man. Of course, he was a Buick guy, so.. rattles.
i love my Tahoe so much I kept it even when I bought my new truck.  No rattles and the thing is bullet proof.  14 years old, nothing but standard maintenance.  The leather seats are cracking right where you'd expect, my i s c & a aggie wife insisted on those, personally I hate leather seats, especially in Texas summers.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 15, 2019, 08:31:59 AM
Lmao. Great observation. You sound like that moron Bob Lutz.
You do realize that the Model 3 was the best selling car in the US in 2018 in terms of revenue and the #3 best selling car overall period, right?
Tesla is what stock market pundits call a “story stock.......we'll never put capital to work in a company that has only a good fundamental story.” But, in fact, there’s more than one story here, and there are several very different reasons to invest, or not invest, in the innovative automaker. Some boosters want to be part of Elon Musk’s bold mission to change the world, while others simply see a company with meteoric growth and fanatical brand loyalty. Some skeptics point to the unlikelihood of a small startup scaling the auto industry’s proverbially punishing barriers to entry, while others just can’t get past Musk’s unconventional personality and snarky tweets.“Right now, it’s selling for two times trailing revenues, so it’s valued at $45 billion vs. $20 billion in sales. Had Tesla remained private, it would have a much higher valuation.”

Count Kate Warne, an Investment Strategist at Edward Jones, among the skeptics, at least for now. “We don’t follow Tesla. But part of the reason is, their debt’s junk-rated. We wouldn’t look at it until it becomes an investment grade. In general with companies, we’d look at the credit rating before we even look at other characteristics. We’d rather be later and not have quite as high returns but wait until the cash flows are more stable and bondholders can be a little more comfortable. What we’ve seen with visionary leaders leading innovation, whether it’s Jeff Bezos or Steve Jobs or Elon Musk, is behavior that is really born out of the frustration associated with short-term thinking in the equity markets. And they just don’t understand how we can’t understand.”

FWIW consumer advocate Clark Howard told a caller he wouldn't recommend their stock right now.Who really knows but price of the vehicles would have to come way down for me to even test drive one
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2019, 10:56:58 AM
I think anyone who discounts the competition coming in the EV market is missing a point.  Let's presume Audi et al. have a cost disadvantage.  (I presume since the Bolt's battery is basically on a part with that of the Tesla there is no battery density advantage.)  Let's presume the e-Tron is produced, which seems certain, and is competitive with Tesla whichever model on the merits.  Audi is going to sell them one way or the other even if they have to discount them and take a loss on each.  They can do that as long as they choose because they have profits from other vehicles.  So can Volvo, and GM, and Mercedes, etc.  Maybe they aren't as good, we won't know, but they will be sold.

There will be competition in the EV market that diminishes Tesla's prospects going forward.  That is one reason Tesla's stock price has been languishing.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 15, 2019, 12:42:46 PM
Fundamentally, I think Tesla's problem is that while it has first mover advantage, it doesn't have enough capital to continue expansion and doesn't have enough of a technical moat over the competition to beat them out when companies who know how to make cars start getting into the game. 

This is a common problem in companies with first mover advantage in a market similar but adjacent to a larger market. 

I saw this years ago in enterprise SSDs. Companies like STEC and FusionIO were creating amazing products that were far beyond anything anyone else had, and they were creating market demand by supplying products that didn't have competition from the major storage vendors. They were flying high. But once the competition started catching up, they became acquisition targets by the big boys at far lower prices than they would have commanded at their peaks. 

They simply couldn't scale. They had technology, but not enough of a technology lead to remain freestanding companies. And because the biggest cost of enterprise SSDs is NAND, which neither company made, once the technology of other vendors caught up they had a pricing disadvantage. FusionIO was acquired by SanDisk [who is vertically integrated in NAND] and STEC was acquired by WDC*/HGST, a behemoth of the HDD industry which later acquired SanDisk to become vertically integrated in NAND.

I think Tesla has a similar problem. The behavior over the last quarter suggests that they're seriously cash-constrained. They hastily announced a Model Y hoping for a big influx of reservation cash like they had with the Model 3. It didn't materialize. They're laying off salespeople and closing retail locations. They're lowering prices [signaling a demand problem]. They're starting a lease program that appears to be a way to turn languishing inventory into immediate cash, but without a leasing partner to help shoulder the financial burden suggesting they're trying to get in hand cash now, also signaling a demand problem. Their bonds are slightly better than junk, so raising capital through bonds is hard, and they might be able to keep going if they try to issue a capital raise, but for some reason they have been unable or unwilling to do so.

Their cars appear to be pretty damn good. And the people who are pro-Tesla think that's enough for them to survive. Problem is that they're a company, and a company has to make money. And it doesn't appear they have a viable model to do so right now, so they're flailing around trying to save enough cash to keep the lights on.

Their technical moat is insufficient IMHO. Their only real technical advantage is battery-related, and it's unclear how much of that is Tesla and how much is Panasonic. Autopilot is nice, but I think the timeframe to actually get to autonomous / full self driving is far enough out that even if they had a lead and would be first to market, the survival of the company is a shorter term concern than what FSD can offer. 

Tesla is in trouble.

* Disclosure: I work for WDC, which acquired the companies who acquired STEC and FusionIO.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 15, 2019, 01:07:49 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/cadillac-super-cruise-autonomous-driving-review.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/cadillac-super-cruise-autonomous-driving-review.html)

I tested Cadillac’s new Super Cruise autonomous driving system in a brand new 2018 CT6 (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/2018-cadillac-ct6-platinum-awd-review.html), and I’m convinced it’s way better than anything else on the market, including Volvo’s Pilot Assist and, yes, even Tesla Autopilot.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2019, 07:55:43 PM
https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/ct-met-will-county-dam-removal-petition-20190415-story.html


Citizens seek swift removal of Will County dam on DuPage River where couple recently drowned

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.trbimg.com%2Fimg-5cb50120%2Fturbine%2Fct-1555366169-5my0l90cvh-snap-image%2F1600%2F1600x900&hash=205530652ec6d71cff67cec796d9043c)
A sign warns of the hazard at the dam on the DuPage River at the Hammel Woods Forest Preserve in Shorewood. A petition is circulating to seek removal of the dam, which was the scene of the drowning deaths of two people recently. (Antonio Perez/Chicago Tribune)


he recent drownings of a young couple in the DuPage River have prompted calls for Will County Forest Preserve officials to speed up the removal of a dam in Shorewood.
James Kennedy, of Shorewood, launched a petition April 3 on change.org (https://www.change.org/p/village-of-shorewood-accelerate-removal-of-the-hammel-woods-dam-in-shorewood-il-8741c7fe-65c3-403a-af26-2f1bac20f591) after Hannah Tammeling, 22, of Plainfield (https://www.chicagotribune.com/topic/chicago-suburbs/plainfield-CHIS0064-topic.html), and Abraham Ramos, 28, of Palatine, drowned in the river near the dam at the Hammel Woods Forest Preserve. Their bodies were found April 1 about a half-mile from where witnesses had seen them struggling in the river near the dam the day before.


Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 15, 2019, 08:20:53 PM
Is that river at normal level, Badge?

Low-water dams like that are just drownings waiting to happen.

We've got one on the Arkansas River about a mile south of downtown Tulsa, complete with all the expected warning signage.  And there are proposals to put in more, so that the "river" will effectively become a series of ponds held in by low-water dams.  The one we already have has claimed several victims over the years.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2019, 08:29:41 PM
Yep, that was just a little above normal, whatever normal is these days. Dams are just dangerous on all levels. People see a "low head" dam like this and think they can manage it. Nope. Low head is a misnomer, in that it's only low head when it comes to gravity. There is much more to head than gravity, not to mention the risks of increased velocity and hydraulic jump.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 15, 2019, 08:48:39 PM
I bought a new car in July and assume it'll be the last combustion-engine car I'll have.  While EVs may only be a tiny share of the market now, there will be a tipping point and that tipping point will occur seemingly suddenly.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 15, 2019, 08:56:26 PM
I'm in negotiations on this now. I might couple it with a new SUV for Mrs. 847. It's all about the deal though. I don't need a new car. But, It might be my last one, and hers, so who knows.



(https://motorwerks.mercedesdealer.com/inventoryphotos/2559/wddxj8fb8ga014421/ip/1.jpg?height=400)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 07:38:52 AM
I saw a lot of those in Massachusettes on our recent visit.  We walked a good bit along the Charles River.  These are mostly 150 year old structures obviously.  The look "quaint".

We saw a purpose built town in western MA along the Connecticut River that was quite interesting, had a nice lunch there.  I remain amazed how much construction could be done in 1868.  

The village of Turners Falls was founded in 1868 as a planned industrial community according to the plan of Alvah Crocker, a prominent man from Fitchburg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fitchburg,_Massachusetts) who envisioned in the immense power of the waterfalls the means of establishing a great city. Crocker was influenced by other, earlier and successful experiments in Lowell (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lowell,_Massachusetts) and elsewhere. Crocker's vision was to attract industry to the town by offering cheap hydropower (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydropower) that was made by the harnessing of the Connecticut River (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connecticut_River), through the construction of a dam and canal. His development concept was to sell mill sites along the power canal to those companies and to sell individual building lots to mill workers who would come to work in the mills. The rest of the village was laid out in a horizontal grid pattern with cross streets numerically. Avenue A, the main commercial district, was designed as a grand tree lined avenue.[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turners_Falls,_Massachusetts#cite_note-6)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2019, 08:00:20 AM
Vehicle negotiations stalled last night, by the way. We'll see if he calls me back today. I suspect he will, but we'll see. I told him I don't need to do this, and I mean that. I'm cool with what we have, but I could see that changing when we move. We'll need a bigger SUV, I think?? I'm fine with my car. Sometimes I wonder if we would even need to have 2 vehicles. Maybe one and a golf cart or something. Those are electric, I think.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 08:17:07 AM
We moved to one car of course, and it works well for us because one of us can walk to just about anything we might need if the other is out with the car.

Then there is Uber/Lyft of course.

The future of autonomous vehicles - whenever that arrives - could mean fewer and fewer car owning households.  Imagine getting to work by scheduling a Uber at the same time each day and it drives you to work, and picks you up at night.  That could cost less than owning a vehicle.  The vehicle could easily be an EV, and probably will be.

I read somewhere that the demand for new electricity would grow by 8% if every car in the US were an EV, but I've since read other places that it is more like 25%.  That would be significant, even if it happens over a 15 year period or more.  

Our future could feature very few privately owned vehicles, probably mostly larger SUVs for vacations etc. and trucks.  Maybe this is what GM and Ford are seeing as well.

I'm not sure high speed rail is going to be needed, the US may simply bypass that development.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 16, 2019, 08:49:43 AM
I suspect we'll always want one vehicle but I could certainly see alternative forms of transportation eliminating the need for a second.  Right now I telecommute 3-4 days per week anyway.  Covering the other 1-2 days with some combination of uber, light rail, and perhaps even city buses would be do-able.

When I was back in grad school, I took the bus from the suburbs down to campus every day and it worked really well-- gave me plenty of time to read and review cases, and even capture some of the written work I needed to do on the laptop.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 08:57:40 AM
I usually took the bus or my bicycle to grad school.  Parking was a problem of course.

I was also getting by on about $5 K a year.  My starting salary when I got a job felt like I was rich.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2019, 09:51:27 AM
Vehicle negotiations stalled last night, by the way. We'll see if he calls me back today. I suspect he will, but we'll see. I told him I don't need to do this, and I mean that. I'm cool with what we have, but I could see that changing when we move. 
Well played i read a book/pamphlet Show Room Strategies years ago.Appearing indifferent and not needy will definitely give you more leverage.Not certain if it still applies but waving cash was a biggie at least back then
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2019, 10:04:39 AM
 Imagine getting to work by scheduling a Uber at the same time each day and it drives you to work, and picks you up at night.  That could cost less than owning a vehicle.  The vehicle could easily be an EV, and probably will be.
I have a hard time believing that electric cars will work well in a normal midwest winter.At least at this present stage sans global warming.Those will need to be some hefty ass batteries and what will the cost of charging them be?Like 847 posted his friend wasn't enamored with the bill/cost
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2019, 10:10:08 AM
I'm in negotiations on this now. 



(https://motorwerks.mercedesdealer.com/inventoryphotos/2559/wddxj8fb8ga014421/ip/1.jpg?height=400)
BASTAGE!
My next ride
(https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/amish-cart-on-road-bright-450w-186422903.jpg)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 11:28:15 AM
The weather here today is spectacular.  It was cool this AM but supposed to hit 70°F this PM.  We're headed to Stone Mountain with some sammiches.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 11:45:24 AM
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a27128160/2020-cadillac-ct5-photos-info/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social-media&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&fbclid=IwAR3RPTxLMgRZDxBRzVFPI2-RZaz9CBKSgoLN5W4-XN7H9h84f8-L3KVgz78 (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a27128160/2020-cadillac-ct5-photos-info/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social-media&src=socialflowFBCAD&utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&fbclid=IwAR3RPTxLMgRZDxBRzVFPI2-RZaz9CBKSgoLN5W4-XN7H9h84f8-L3KVgz78)

Speaking of cars, Cadillac tries again with a tweener.  If I ran Caddy, I'd probably have this as the only sedan offering and make money on the SUVs.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a27156309/cadillac-ct5-v-future-performance-sedan/?utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&fbclid=IwAR0unYGqdCXLs6FXWx6ljkPOFnnK_lhFtcF7RUiih3aLlreNDmKywOYwv9E (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a27156309/cadillac-ct5-v-future-performance-sedan/?utm_campaign=socialflowFBCD&utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=facebook&src=socialflowFBCAD&fbclid=IwAR0unYGqdCXLs6FXWx6ljkPOFnnK_lhFtcF7RUiih3aLlreNDmKywOYwv9E)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 16, 2019, 12:11:48 PM
(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t45.1600-4/cp0/q90/spS444/p180x540/58017710_23843331603710034_6351292926022123520_n.png.jpg?_nc_cat=105&efg=eyJxZV9ncm91cHMiOlsibm9fc2FmZV9pbWFnZV9mb3JfYWRzX2ltYWdlIl19&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&oh=cc415c27c3c914c765838cac760e459c&oe=5D77C872)

View from the park of where we live, in the fall of course.  This photo is a couple years old and the skyline has filled in some since then.  A 29 story apt building was just finished on the outside, they told us 19 months from start to finish and on budget.  

And more stuff is on the way apparently.  It's almost scary.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/4/15/18311273/residential-tower-gothic-st-marks-midtown-peachtree (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/4/15/18311273/residential-tower-gothic-st-marks-midtown-peachtree)

For badger, the ground here is a thin skin on top of granite, so good for foundations.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 16, 2019, 12:47:01 PM
Well played i read a book/pamphlet Show Room Strategies years ago.Appearing indifferent and not needy will definitely give you more leverage.Not certain if it still applies but waving cash was a biggie at least back then
waving cash and being indifferent hasn't helped with buying a 2008-2012 Vette
I think the new mid-engine C8 being pushed back is most of the problem
I'll wait until this fall when the new Vettes are being delivered
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 16, 2019, 01:47:05 PM
I like my little hatchback.  It can hold all my camping gear that I fit in my Jeep (ZJ).  I just can't drive anywhere I want anymore.  I do miss it, though.  Just the ability to go anywhere....but I don't miss the lack of AC, the constant issues resulting in searching for 25 year old parts.  I live in an urban setting now, so the good-gas-mileage, rear-camera, cold AC car makes sense.

I was able to sell my boat, so I've sort of reeled in all my possessions and nickel-and-dime costs.  I need to pay off my credit cards before venturing out into my next poor financial decision fun.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 16, 2019, 04:54:11 PM
Electrification of transportation and other sectors is the last real opportunity for growth for electric utilities, which is why they're all in favor of it, while the oil & gas companies are resisting it, of course.

EV sales will probably grow exponentially (especially in countries that have a deadline for cars with combustion engines) but in terms of cars on the road the transition is going to be slower than it could be, no different than how investment in new coal generation is essentially dead and it's dying for natural gas now, but the retirement of those plants and their decline in market share isn't going to occur overnight, of course.... That said, if more US states incentivize EVs like they've incentivized renewables, then that could expedite the transition.

Automation is the variable in all of this, of course. Autonomous technology is more compatible with electric vehicles to complement mass transit, and same goes for local commercial / municipal vehicles (for long-distance freight/trucking that's a different story, of course, regardless of what capacity the batteries can get to increase range).
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 16, 2019, 05:03:56 PM
Automation is the variable in all of this, of course. Autonomous technology is more compatible with electric vehicles to complement mass transit, and same goes for local commercial / municipal vehicles (for long-distance freight/trucking that's a different story, of course, regardless of what capacity the batteries can get to increase range).
Why do you say autonomous technology is more compatible with electric? Whether it's gas or electricity, they need to recharge/refuel periodically. I don't see how autonomous transport necessarily does any better there.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 16, 2019, 05:50:39 PM
I'll wait until this fall when the new Vettes are being delivered
If you're going to procure a Plastic-Fantastic ya might want to fore go any Shark Water Tailgates or Keggs & Eggs
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 16, 2019, 08:42:14 PM
A dealer that lives down the street confirms what i read in wsj recently.  The margins have shrunk on sales.  If anything cash offers embolden them.  Dealers clear much healthier margins by getting a taste of the financing and on sales of accessories or after market service arrangements .

This was our experience in buying wife's Subaru this winter.  They were fine w us driving to nearby Lafayette to buy it for the price we had from WLaf.  They know what they are doing, the vehicle we wanted would be sold within a few days after we walked.  All they would do is bargain on a service or maintenance package.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 16, 2019, 09:59:06 PM
Well played i read a book/pamphlet Show Room Strategies years ago.Appearing indifferent and not needy will definitely give you more leverage.Not certain if it still applies but waving cash was a biggie at least back then
I walked on it. Still thinking of upgrading the Mrs. though.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 07:35:08 AM
When we bought the VW, our salesman told us he could get us a better deal if we financed part of it.  The loan was 1.9% over 60 months, so I took it.  Their initial offer was lower than I was prepared to spend.  We dickered a little bit on some options and that was that.

I thought I'd get maybe $3000 off list and they offered $5K out of the gate.  It wasn't the color I preferred, but I like it fine.

I think large volume dealers just move cars and make profit on numbers, incentives for selling X per month.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2019, 08:22:17 AM
Why do you say autonomous technology is more compatible with electric? Whether it's gas or electricity, they need to recharge/refuel periodically. I don't see how autonomous transport necessarily does any better there.
I suppose one thought here is that it's easier/safer for an autonomous vehicle to plug itself into an electrical outlet, than it is to "gas up?"  
But there are plenty of automated fueling systems out there in the world, and as of 2017 that includes the automated refueling of jets in-flight, so I'm reasonably certain safe processes and technology could be implemented.  It might not be particularly cheap, though.  And even the safest systems are going to have some margin of error.  Mistakes in automated refueling of gas/diesel/propane/natural gas vehicles have the potential to be more disastrous.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 08:30:18 AM
Back in 1980, I was fresh out of grad school and on to a new job.  Gasoline was $1.16 a gallon, for off brand "low lead".  My car was a relative gas hog with a low compression 5.7 L engine.  I was certain gas prices would be headed higher routinely, so I wanted something more efficient, and bought one in 1984 that doubled the mpgs I got on the highway (and was painfully slow, but we had a 55 mph speed limit too).  I had read about "zero petroleum by 2000" etc.  I wondered if there would be enough to make chemicals.

All that has made me very circumspect about "expert predictions" 10+ years off.  They usually sound good, but very often are nonsense.  There was a well known expert in the day called Faith Popcorn of all things that made her living on such things and wrote books which I read, and nearly everything she predicted turned out to be rubbish.

I was convinced we'd have colonies on Mars by now.  It's 2019.  I was convinced the reciprocating internal combustion engine would be long gone replaced with something sensible, perhaps fuel cells, perhaps turbines, Wankels, something.  I figured tires were as good as they'd ever get.  I figured a 4 speed transmission was clearly as many gears as we'd ever need.

So, gas prices around here range $2.50-$3.00/gallon right now for regular.  On an inflation adjusted basis, gas should cost $3.60/gallon.  And we've gone to full unleaded which is more expensive to produce of course.

We have more forests today in the US than in 1900 by a large margin.  We were looking out over the ATL yesterday from the summit of Stone Mountain and it's nearly all a green canopy.  Places like the Smoky Mountains were almost denuded of trees by 1920, and now are completely covered (almost).  Sometimes, the dot dot dot method of prediction just doesn't work.

The problem with predicting climate is that the models have to be derived based on what has happened to date.  And it's far from easy to collect even simple things like mean global temperature.  The impact of rising CO2 levels ALONE would be only tenths of a degree, it's the forcing factors added to the model that turn that into something dire.  And that makes sense, a melting ice cap decreases the albedo of the planet leading to more warming, moisture levels may change leading to more cloud cover, etc.  It's a massively complex system, and I don't think any of the models are really very good.  Maybe one is by accident.  Of course that includes the possibility that it turns out to be worse than the models predict, we might have massive permafrost melting that releases more methane and things spiral out of control.

I still don't see a viable means of controlling CO2 emissions.  Europe has invested heavily in wind and solar, and their CO2 emissions have been rising faster than those in the US, where we've seen declines over the past years (in part because we have been energy hogs).  So, I hope for the best, I don't think humans are really going to reduce CO2 emissions any time soon.  "We" sign pieces of paper in lieu of real hard plans.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 08:31:09 AM
Inductively recharging cars while they drive is an interesting possibility.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 08:34:27 AM
I think I've mentioned this before, but imagine the following for intercity transport:

1.  Special lanes dedicated to EVs that have inductive charging of the cars (for tolls).
2.  EVs operating in condensed packets autonomously controlled and interlinked traveling at say 120 mph.
3.  The lead car might be a clone to break the wind.
4.  When cars near an exit, they break out of the packet and simply move right to exit with a full charge.
5.  The packet rejoins with a foot separation between vehicles.

No need for HSR in this scenario.  We'd need standardized batteries and inductive hookups of course, and autonomous driving.  The cars might all be "rentals".
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 08:35:31 AM
I've seen the Mississippi at its source  - no levies there anywhere.

Ha.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 09:06:45 AM
Why do you say autonomous technology is more compatible with electric? Whether it's gas or electricity, they need to recharge/refuel periodically. I don't see how autonomous transport necessarily does any better there.
I thought this was a good question. My guesses are these:
(1) that mainly there isn't a *need* for autonomous vehicles to also be EVs, but that it helps on the social side because people who want EVs are probably much less resistant to car autonomy than people who prefer internal combustion.
(2) autonomous fill-ups (whether by gas, electric outlet or wireless recharging) seem easier without gasoline. Wireless recharging (a reachable but further-off industry dream) sounds especially seemless, which does pair the EV and AV technology better together than AVs with gasoline.
(3) Then after that, a question: Aren't ANs going to require a computer to have its thumb on all the moment by moment stats for your vehicle (and perhaps for every vehicle in your vicinity)? If so, having fewer moving parts could make EVs more amenable to the switch.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2019, 09:08:45 AM
Inductively recharging cars while they drive is an interesting possibility.
There you go again with your golderned electromagnetism.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 17, 2019, 09:14:09 AM
Ya really who's the Engineer around here......not me
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2019, 10:03:00 AM
I just assume it'll be like in the movie "Minority Report" - cars on a track, all automated.  You type in where you want to go, it takes you - basically like those old, crumby toy cars on a track that would always fly off.  
In the movie, they went up vertical walls, but that wouldn't be necessary. And instead of open-air roads, I don't see why they wouldn't be halfway buried to let greenery grow over them so they'd be invisible from above...unless there's some solar component to it.


In 50 years, owning a "normal" car/truck/jeep will be like owning a boat now - an extra expense few can afford, which allows you to escape where 95% of other people can't go.  A luxury item.



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2019, 10:05:17 AM
I think I've mentioned this before, but imagine the following for intercity transport:

1.  Special lanes dedicated to EVs that have inductive charging of the cars (for tolls).
2.  EVs operating in condensed packets autonomously controlled and interlinked traveling at say 120 mph.
3.  The lead car might be a clone to break the wind.
4.  When cars near an exit, they break out of the packet and simply move right to exit with a full charge.
5.  The packet rejoins with a foot separation between vehicles.

No need for HSR in this scenario.  We'd need standardized batteries and inductive hookups of course, and autonomous driving.  The cars might all be "rentals".
This will be called the "fart car" by everyone within 6 months of it existing.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 10:46:50 AM
I don't think the cars in Minority Report were on tracks. They were on roads. True, they didn't seem to have wheels, but "track" implies a limited degree of freedom, not to mention a physical connection, as with roller coaster, trolleys and trains. The movie's roads were trackless. I don't think the plot ever rigorously addressed their engineering, so one mmight speculate the roads exhibited magnetic fields to float the vehicles.

Likewise, tracks in real life are unrealistic. Mechanical contact points (extra wear/tear) are a bad idea and limiting the system's degrees of freedom is not necessary.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 10:55:00 AM
The problem with flying or trains or buses is what you do when you get "there".  Uber/Lyft are solving that today.  But people like their personal cars obviously.

I'm looking at a possibility for preserving that desire while also providing for energy efficiency high speed transportation.  Otherwise, folks are fighting what humans really want.

Gwinnett County here just voted against joining the "subway/bus system".  It's the second most populated county in the state.  We were out that way yesterday and really had to fight traffic coming home, the wife was amazed how bad it was at 4 PM.  We rarely drive anywhere except between 10 AM and 3 PM, and then we don't go far, usually.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 11:12:19 AM
I don't think the cars in Minority Report were on tracks. They were on roads. True, they didn't seem to have wheels, but "track" implies a limited degree of freedom, not to mention a physical connection, as with roller coaster, trolleys and trains. The movie's roads were trackless. I don't think the plot ever rigorously addressed their engineering, so one mmight speculate the roads exhibited magnetic fields to float the vehicles.

Likewise, tracks in real life are unrealistic. Mechanical contact points (extra wear/tear) are a bad idea and limiting the system's degrees of freedom is not necessary.
Steel on steel is MUCH more efficient than rubber on asphalt. I don't know for certain, but I'm pretty sure the idea of magnetic levitation would require a great deal more energy than simple steel on steel. 
Nonetheless, the future of transportation infrastructure is interesting.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 11:38:14 AM
The problem with flying or trains or buses is what you do when you get "there".  Uber/Lyft are solving that today.  But people like their personal cars obviously.

I'm looking at a possibility for preserving that desire while also providing for energy efficiency high speed transportation.  Otherwise, folks are fighting what humans really want.

Gwinnett County here just voted against joining the "subway/bus system".  It's the second most populated county in the state.  We were out that way yesterday and really had to fight traffic coming home, the wife was amazed how bad it was at 4 PM.  We rarely drive anywhere except between 10 AM and 3 PM, and then we don't go far, usually.
I agreed with almost all of this, especially the first half about not limiting user freedom, though I'm not sure we can conclude what voters want based on the outcome in Gwinnett. I'll admit that's one of countless similar votes in recent decades. But this has become a partisan issue as well funded as any, and its tactics are cleverly fear-based, so we should call both of these things plausible: maybe people really are voting in their interests when they vote against mass transit or maybe they are being duped to vote outside their interests. The second is always a possibility when a crafty campaigner say "oh the demographics will change, property values will drop, taxes will soar, etc."
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Anonymous Coward on April 17, 2019, 11:40:12 AM
Steel on steel is MUCH more efficient than rubber on asphalt. I don't know for certain, but I'm pretty sure the idea of magnetic levitation would require a great deal more energy than simple steel on steel.
Nonetheless, the future of transportation infrastructure is interesting.
True. But also much more limiting. People like to turn and go as the please. Futures that don't match the "as they please" have a habit of not happening.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 11:45:02 AM
I suppose one thought here is that it's easier/safer for an autonomous vehicle to plug itself into an electrical outlet, than it is to "gas up?"  
But there are plenty of automated fueling systems out there in the world, and as of 2017 that includes the automated refueling of jets in-flight, so I'm reasonably certain safe processes and technology could be implemented.  It might not be particularly cheap, though.  And even the safest systems are going to have some margin of error.  Mistakes in automated refueling of gas/diesel/propane/natural gas vehicles have the potential to be more disastrous.
Autonomous vehicles don't have to fuel themselves; they just need to safely drive to the fueling station.
There are still two states which have mandated full-service gas stations, NJ and OR. I would see autonomous ride-hailing as being much more feasible if we simply return to full-service fueling/charging stations. Paying someone minimum wage to plug and unplug a fuel hose or charging cable all day still gives you all the savings of not paying actual drivers in the cars, so it's a net huge savings.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 11:51:03 AM
Gwinnett County here just voted against joining the "subway/bus system".  It's the second most populated county in the state.  We were out that way yesterday and really had to fight traffic coming home, the wife was amazed how bad it was at 4 PM.  We rarely drive anywhere except between 10 AM and 3 PM, and then we don't go far, usually.
There were a lot of discussions about that when I lived in Marietta and they were talking about expanding MARTA up to Cobb County. There was a LOT of pushback. Generally it was based on two things:

I suspect the demographics in Gwinnett are similar enough. The people who live there do so because they want to live near Atlanta, not because they want to deal with the things they perceive as the negatives of Atlanta on a daily basis.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 11:56:46 AM
As an electrical engineer, I'm just going to say that equipping our highways with the infrastructure of inductive electric charging while driving [especially at highway speeds], and making it efficient and cost-effective enough to justify the investment, is currently too fanciful to rely on.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 12:10:38 PM
Gwinnett county demographics have changed a lot since the earlier votes against MARTA on racial grounds.

The racial makeup of the county was 53.3% White, 23.6% black or African American, 10.6% Asian, 0.5% American Indian, 0.1%Pacific Islander, 8.8% from other races, and 3.1% from two or more races. Those of Hispanic or Latino origin made up 20.1% of the population.

But I think too many living out there rarely come into Atlanta, so an extension of the rapid transit would not be of value to them, and it would be completed in 8 years or so.

Cobb county in the NW may vote on this next year, and Gwinnett may vote again in November, they think turnout was a factor.  The traffic here is ridiculous.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 12:11:18 PM
As an electrical engineer, I'm just going to say that equipping our highways with the infrastructure of inductive electric charging while driving [especially at highway speeds], and making it efficient and cost-effective enough to justify the investment, is currently too fanciful to rely on.
How would it compare with high speed rail?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2019, 12:19:12 PM
As an electrical engineer, I'm just going to say that equipping our highways with the infrastructure of inductive electric charging while driving [especially at highway speeds], and making it efficient and cost-effective enough to justify the investment, is currently too fanciful to rely on.
So, no 440V then?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2019, 12:20:39 PM
Gwinnett county demographics have changed a lot since the earlier votes against MARTA on racial grounds.

The racial makeup of the county was 53.3% White, 23.6% black or African American, 10.6% Asian, 0.5% American Indian, 0.1%Pacific Islander, 8.8% from other races, and 3.1% from two or more races. Those of Hispanic or Latino origin made up 20.1% of the population.

But I think too many living out there rarely come into Atlanta, so an extension of the rapid transit would not be of value to them, and it would be completed in 8 years or so.

Cobb county in the NW may vote on this next year, and Gwinnett may vote again in November, they think turnout was a factor.  The traffic here is ridiculous.
Here, Metra ridership is basically down or trending flat across all the lines. Lots of people work from home now, which is a good thing for people with discipline. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 12:24:29 PM
People do work from home, but you wouldn't know it trying to drive anywhere around here.  The metro area adds nearly 100,000 people a year, most are going further and further out.  The city has been growing over the past 20 years or so after the usual declines.  But the metro area population is more than 10x the Atlanta city population.  Sprawl.

I wish we at least had a subway out to the baseball field, it's in a terrible traffic area, brilliant.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 01:18:54 PM
True. But also much more limiting. People like to turn and go as the please. Futures that don't match the "as they please" have a habit of not happening.
But if we're talking about a major infrastructure change, of the sort that would allow autonomous vehicles to travel as proposed above, it might not be that difficult to design such a system on rails (certainly a lot less expensive than the inductive charge while traveling).
A further step here is just not having a battery on board at all (or at least not a very big one), and instead operating from power supplied in the road (potentially by wire).
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 01:32:46 PM
How would it compare with high speed rail?
The economics of HSR are usually terrible as well. In most of the US, HSR is just not a feasible mode of transport, because the country is too large and too spread out. For most of us, the car or air travel is more useful.
Consider where I live--Orange County, CA. There is a HUGE link [especially for tech workers] between the LA metro and the SF/Silicon Valley metro areas. And it's a close enough distance that it is feasible for vacationers, weekend trips, etc.
For me to fly:
25 minute drive to John Wayne Airport
About an hour parking/security/waiting for flight (it's a small enough airport that you don't need to burn 2 hrs)
An hour flying to either SJC or SFO (both are well-located)
Uber or mass transit within the city
Total transit time: About 3 hours, give or take.
Cost: ~$200 round trip if I find decent fares, not counting parking or uber. Sometimes better. Sometimes worse. That's per-person though.
Schedule: About a dozen flights each way daily.
For me to drive:
About 388 miles to downtown San Jose. 430 to downtown SF.
Transit time: Depends highly on departure time. 5 1/2 - 6 1/2 hours assuming little traffic, but getting through LA is a bitch, so that's probably closer to 7 - 7 1/2.
Cost: ~$160 r/t gas costs in the Flex. Can be amortized over up to 7 passengers in the Flex though. Realistically driving is the "low-cost" option as long as it's two or more people.
Schedule: Up to me.
HSR:
Drive or Uber to Anaheim from home (25 minutes). Assume 20 minute buffer (to ensure I'm there on time) before boarding first train. Take Metrolink from Anaheim to Los Angeles. Change trains to take HSR from Los Angeles to San Jose, all on dedicated HSR tracks, but with stops in Burbank, Palmdale, Bakersfield, Tulare, Fresno, Merced, and Gilroy. Change trains again to go from San Jose to SF on existing or upgraded CalTrans tracks. Conservatively 
assume minimum of 10 minutes at each stop on the HSR, and we'll say 20 minutes for changing trains. 
Transit time: 25 minutes driving plus 2 hrs 10 minutes for time where trains are stopped or I'm waiting for the next train. Already at almost 3 hours. Assuming transit time (aggressively) of 2 1/2 hours in between all those stops, we're already at 5 1/2 hours. That's fantasy, however, as apparently the expected maximum speed of the train is 220 mph
Cost: Really tough to identify actual cost and how much is "fare" vs how much is subsidized. I'm seeing somewhere on the order of $86 one-way fare, plus $29 from Anaheim to LA, and optional $22 more if I'm terminating in SF rather than San Jose. So we're looking at >$200 round trip, not including cost of parking or Uber. And of course that's per-passenger, so cannot be amortized across multiple passengers like a car trip. 
The economic assumptions that HSR advocates include are always INCREDIBLY rosy about ridership. So whether they can offer the number of daily trains they want, at a fare people will accept, with the knowledge that the total transit time is probably 2x air travel, is probably complete fantasy. 
This is particularly true due to the ease of the route via air. I've mentioned that there is a huge business travel component here. I've gone from Orange County to San Jose several times on the 6:45 AM flight, and come back same-day on an evening flight. Given I always target the back of the plane on Southwest, I can't tell you how many times I've been sitting in the row in the evening with the same people I was sitting in the row with on that morning flight. Same-day round trip travel is common on this routing, and for business travelers, that's completely blown up with a 6+ hour total transit time. 
For business travelers, flying is the only option. For a single person or a couple vacationing for whom transit time is more important than cost, flying is the better option. For a couple or family pinching their pennies, driving is the cheaper option with similar transit time.
Conclusion:
HSR is likely more expensive than flying while being slower. It's more expensive to MUCH more expensive than driving [depending on number of passengers] despite being similar overall transit time, even including traffic. It's not feasible for business travelers, who are the mainstay of the route, and too expensive for vacationing families with no benefit. And this LA/SF route is considered one of the "better" HSR routes economically outside of the DC/NY/Boston corridor. It fundamentally makes very little sense. 
Assuming the technical feasibility of inductive wireless charging and autonomous driving be satisfied, I don't know if the cost per mile would be higher or lower than HSR. But I think the overall economics would greatly favor the wireless charging and autonomous driving, and the users would prefer it. The freedom and scheduling makes much more sense, and if the route could be set up with cars basically becoming trains at high speed [100+ mph] and with close following distances to reduce air drag, the speed and lack of traffic jams dramatically improves the user experience of driving, as does the autonomous aspect [less fatigue/etc, safer in general]. 
So IMHO electrified autonomous driving makes a great deal of sense if we can work out the technical/cost aspects. I think the wireless inductive on-road charging may never occur, but that's NOT even critical to the advantages of autonomous driving with cars communicating with each other (increased speed / reduced air drag). It's just a nice bonus. 
And either way, HSR is silly. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2019, 01:44:28 PM
All I know is that our transportation infrastructure is embarrassing, considering the possibilities.  Whether they're tracks or electromagnetics or whatever, it needs to happen.  The existing infrastructure of railroads laid 100+ years ago and the highway system laid 50+ years ago is unacceptable.

I've always found it odd that there's no major in-between:  either drive and maintain a vehicle yourself, on roads, at about 60 mph OR trust the expertise of others, 7 miles up, going 600 mph.  How are there not 10 viable options between these two choices?!?!?!




Think of what we could do with one year's worth of the defense budget pointed towards transportation infrastructure overhaul.....the future would be now.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 17, 2019, 01:48:21 PM
I thought this was a good question. My guesses are these:
(1) that mainly there isn't a *need* for autonomous vehicles to also be EVs, but that it helps on the social side because people who want EVs are probably much less resistant to car autonomy than people who prefer internal combustion.
(2) autonomous fill-ups (whether by gas, electric outlet or wireless recharging) seem easier without gasoline. Wireless recharging (a reachable but further-off industry dream) sounds especially seemless, which does pair the EV and AV technology better together than AVs with gasoline.
(3) Then after that, a question: Aren't ANs going to require a computer to have its thumb on all the moment by moment stats for your vehicle (and perhaps for every vehicle in your vicinity)? If so, having fewer moving parts could make EVs more amenable to the switch.
All of the above plus lower maintenance costs, which will decrease the costs of rides from whoever survives between Uber/Lyft/Waymo/etc.
As for wireless charging, I'm skeptical of that compared to the potential viability of hyperloop for intercity transportation. Long-distance electric passenger trains could be viable if batteries become dense enough. As for how autonomous cars will be charged, I suspect big parking garages will be owned by the ridesharing companies and they'll install a bunch of charging stations in the old parking spots. This would also allow them to get paid to help keep the grid balanced by varying their charging speeds, largely depending how much wind & solar generation is being produced at that point in time so that less of it will get curtailed.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2019, 01:52:30 PM
People do work from home, but you wouldn't know it trying to drive anywhere around here.  The metro area adds nearly 100,000 people a year, most are going further and further out.  The city has been growing over the past 20 years or so after the usual declines.  But the metro area population is more than 10x the Atlanta city population.  Sprawl.

I wish we at least had a subway out to the baseball field, it's in a terrible traffic area, brilliant.
Heh. Chicago doesn't have a population growth problem (according to census data, at least). More people are leaving every year. I'm sure that has something to do with ridership too. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 01:58:47 PM
I'd also point out that for many of the same reasons that HSR fails [high fixed costs / fixed route / fixed endpoints / etc], light rail is a bad idea. 

But since HSR is SUCH a large expense, people don't throw down the money on it. Light rail, at a much more local expense, is the darling of urban hipsters everywhere.

Buses, however, are a much superior solution. Light rail is costly and assumes that the central planners know exactly where the people are, and where they want to go. Once built, it's stuck on that route. Buses are flexible, and bus routes can be reconfigured easily to respond to where the people ACTUALLY are and where they ACTUALLY want to go. 

Of course, it wouldn't matter which is superior if they were independent. But they're not. A pattern crops up every time light rail is built. It displaces bus routes, while actually adding no new net ridership or in many cases, reducing net ridership. Because light rail costs a bunch of money, and the ridership doesn't cover the costs, it invariably has unrealistically low fares to subsidize ridership.

Why is this the case? Very simple. Because poor people ride buses and rich urban hipsters wouldn't be caught dead on one. 

So light rail actually takes mass transit away from the people who need it in order to give it to the people who don't. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 02:10:25 PM
All of the above plus lower maintenance costs, which will decrease the costs of rides from whoever survives between Uber/Lyft/Waymo/etc.
Still, I think autonomous driving is decoupled from EV. We could just as easily go autonomous with ICE engines as EV. The lower maintenance costs of EV only play a factor in comparison to ICE--if EV doesn't take over as quickly as projected, then EV isn't necessarily "better" for autonomous ride-hailing. 
Perhaps this could occur due to scale-up costs of increasing battery production capacity for a huge portion of the automotive fleet. I.e. I see the same thing in the HDD/SSD market. People talk about how wonderful SSDs are--and they're exactly that wonderful. But then they predict that HDDs are going the way of the dinosaur, and they're not. SSDs require NAND, and to build out the NAND fabrication facilities to meet exabyte demand would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, while flooding the market with NAND and dropping costs through the floor. Every NAND producer would lose their shirts if they did it. 
So I don't think it should just be assumed EV takes over. It might be the case, but I think if autonomous ride-hailing is ready before the market can supply EV, there's no reason they need to be coupled. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 17, 2019, 02:19:54 PM
So, no 440V then?
440... 441... whatever it takes.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 17, 2019, 02:35:33 PM
The movements toward electrification and automation aren't interdependent, but they're not completely independent, either. All of the auto companies realize that EVs are going to win out eventually and that autonomous vehicles will make individual car ownership largely obsolete. How that all plays out is a big question but how it ends is pretty much understood.

As for mass transit, with automation, I agree that buses will prove to be the better solution. I've used buses in subways when I've lived in Philadelphia, Chicago, and DC. The problem with buses is they still have to deal with traffic, stop signs, stop lights, construction, etc. Subways are much more reliable for the most part, and they're scheduled more frequently, but I agree that expanding existing transit infrastructure is not going to happen for the most part (the only project in the DC metro is to finish building a line that goes to Dulles Airport), nor should it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 02:59:52 PM
Wow--I'm surprised at how down on rail you guys are.

My metropolitan area would be a disaster without rail. Buses are great for short trips, but bad for long ones. Rail is an extremely efficient way to connect high density areas that are further apart than buses can reasonably serve. As much money as we pour into infrastructure for cars, a little more investment in rail would be a great idea, particularly as we continue to urbanize as a country.

HSR is only viable within certain distances--the idea of a nationwide network is crazy. But an HSR in California connecting the population centers, or connecting the major population centers in the midwest and on the eastern seaboard (and a handful of other places) makes a ton of sense. The bureaucratic issues (and associated costs) with building one are the biggest problems. I've done my share of traveling to and from SoCal from the Bay Area. I live really close to SFO and it's still a five hour experience to get from my house to downtown LA. If I could make that on HSR in even the same amount of time (and it would be substantially less), in a much more comfortable, better serviced environment (train travel is way more amenable to working than plane travel), I would happily pay what I pay for air travel.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 03:03:31 PM
The movements toward electrification and automation aren't interdependent, but they're not completely independent, either. All of the auto companies realize that EVs are going to win out eventually and that autonomous vehicles will make individual car ownership largely obsolete. How that all plays out is a big question but how it ends is pretty much understood.
Well, I'm not sure that BEV is going to win out. I was just reading today that China is now betting on fuel cells (https://airqualitynews.com/2019/04/16/china-to-cut-subsidies-for-evs-and-move-towards-hydrogen/). But they want 1M fuel cell cars on the road by 2030, so that's clearly a long-term goal. 
I think there's a significant issue trying to scale up battery production for BEV. Right now the cost of a BEV is heavily due to a battery, which is why Toyota is pushing hybrids so much more strongly than BEV. It allows them to achieve higher efficiency without having to have enough battery capacity to achieve range. 
That was my point with SSD vs HDD. It doesn't matter if BEV is technically superior to ICE if you can't produce enough batteries--at the cost necessary to get adoption--to achieve scale. Do we have enough mines worldwide to get the metals for these batteries? How much would it cost to expand mining? Do we have enough mining companies to supply that many metals, or do the mining companies need to expand? If the mining companies expand and flood the market with metals, can they sell them for a high enough price for the mining companies to cover costs? 
These are incredibly difficult questions, and currently BEV is a tiny portion of the worldwide automotive market. How long it takes to get to scale--if it's possible at all--is not a question we can ignore. 

Quote
As for mass transit, with automation, I agree that buses will prove to be the better solution. I've used buses in subways when I've lived in Philadelphia, Chicago, and DC. The problem with buses is they still have to deal with traffic, stop signs, stop lights, construction, etc. Subways are much more reliable for the most part, and they're scheduled more frequently, but I agree that expanding existing transit infrastructure is not going to happen for the most part (the only project in the DC metro is to finish building a line that goes to Dulles Airport), nor should it.
Subways make sense, but they require insane population density to be economic. So they're only viable within large dense cities. Which also makes sense, because that's the only place where you can justify tunneling under everything. 
So if you're comparing buses vs subways, it's a much different comparison to buses vs light rail. 
FYI when I lived in San Jose, my employer paid for light rail as their HQ was right next to a station. They were on the north side of San Jose, and I lived on the south side of San Jose, also right near a station. Driving in rush hour traffic (incl. carpool lanes) would take an hour. The light rail would take an hour [regardless of traffic] due to the many stops. A bus would probably have taken longer as there might be route changes in there, but then if my house and my employer weren't *right* on the route, I'd have to use a bus to get to/from the terminal station anyway. 
The main advantage of light rail to car was that you could sit there and do email, check your phone, read a book, etc, rather than concentrating on driving. But if I had to pay a couple hundred dollars a month for a monthly pass (which is what I believe they were at the time), I probably wouldn't have done it. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 17, 2019, 03:18:39 PM
All I know is that our transportation infrastructure is embarrassing, considering the possibilities.  Whether they're tracks or electromagnetics or whatever, it needs to happen.  The existing infrastructure of railroads laid 100+ years ago and the highway system laid 50+ years ago is unacceptable.

I've always found it odd that there's no major in-between:  either drive and maintain a vehicle yourself, on roads, at about 60 mph OR trust the expertise of others, 7 miles up, going 600 mph.  How are there not 10 viable options between these two choices?!?!?!




Think of what we could do with one year's worth of the defense budget pointed towards transportation infrastructure overhaul.....the future would be now.  
The problem is people are generally content with how things are. They don't want to pay for it. We have light rail in Phoenix, which was and is a total waste of money. While there is enough population for it, the actually density of the population will not support it. And thus it is rarely used and don't nothing to help the traffic congestion and in fact made it worse in the areas that it runs through. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 03:33:18 PM
Grade separated express bus ways can be an option.  The folks in traffic would see buses flying by unimpeded, delivering patrons to wherever, perhaps a subway stop.  When the bus gets to a congested area it can use normal streets for a few blocks.  

MARTA was built here in the 1980s.  The "good news" is that the areas surrounding many of the stations are exploding with development.  It's a big selling point.  The bad news is there are no plans for extensions of hard rail, everything planned is light rail or bus ways or street cars.  I'm not a far of street cars.  Buses are better, more flexible.

The state spent a huge sum on express lanes for I-75 outside the loop, toll lanes.  They are going to spend $1.8 billion more on express lanes, and some bus ways, for the north freeway (which is a disaster).  Those monies can't be spent on rail anything by law.

We were headed to Costco today to get gas and the wife stopped of the the tile shop, and then I noticed they had Peachtree closed for some reason, and I had to divert to another Costco out near Marietta, the traffic at 1 PM was ridiculous.  I would never live here if I had to face that daily.  I-285 is 6 lanes each way and was packed, but at least it was moving.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 17, 2019, 03:33:59 PM
Battery costs aren't going to be the issue for much longer. The demand is already so high and growing so fast that economies of scale continue to bring down the costs, and recycling them as they degrade will be cost-effective, too. The main question is if/when better chemistries / battery technologies will become cost-effective compared to Lithium Ion.

Fuel cells may win out for trucks, other freight vehicles, and eventually even cargo ships and potentially planes, but I just don't see how it will happen for passenger vehicles. Hydrogen will have its uses, but it requires a lot of new infrastructure to be built out.

When I say subways I'm including above-ground lines, too (like most of Chicago's except parts of the red and blue lines).

To be sure, I'm not against trains for intercity transportation or maintaining existing regional rail infrastructure. I just don't think investing in new rail infrastructure is feasible at this point.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 03:46:44 PM
Wow--I'm surprised at how down on rail you guys are.

My metropolitan area would be a disaster without rail. Buses are great for short trips, but bad for long ones. Rail is an extremely efficient way to connect high density areas that are further apart than buses can reasonably serve. As much money as we pour into infrastructure for cars, a little more investment in rail would be a great idea, particularly as we continue to urbanize as a country.
Having spent a lot of time in SJ/SF, I agree that it's quite useful there. SF is so expensive that it's nearly impossible to live in the city unless you're rich, and it's so space-constrained that it's almost impossible to justify a car day-to-day. And because it's so centralized, having BART to get right into the heart of downtown is nice--particularly because BART goes to SFO. For people coming into the city that know they won't need a rental car, BART gets them from the airport to downtown in ~25 minutes IIRC. 
Light rail in San Jose and on the Peninsula? Much less useful. Outside of SF, there's a lot more sprawl, where it's unlikely that you not only live close enough to a light rail station and your destination is close enough to a light rail station to justify the additional time and cost of taking light rail. For travelers, if you're there on business, there's no connection from SJC to light rail, so if you wanted to get to a light rail station you'd need to Uber/taxi to the light rail. At which point you might as well either rent a car or just Uber from destination to destination. 

Quote
HSR is only viable within certain distances--the idea of a nationwide network is crazy. But an HSR in California connecting the population centers, or connecting the major population centers in the midwest and on the eastern seaboard (and a handful of other places) makes a ton of sense. The bureaucratic issues (and associated costs) with building one are the biggest problems. I've done my share of traveling to and from SoCal from the Bay Area. I live really close to SFO and it's still a five hour experience to get from my house to downtown LA. If I could make that on HSR in even the same amount of time (and it would be substantially less), in a much more comfortable, better serviced environment (train travel is way more amenable to working than plane travel), I would happily pay what I pay for air travel.
Question: what brings you to downtown LA, and do you think your experience is typical? If you live close to SFO, it should be no more than a 2 1/2 hour trip to get you to LAX. It's the getting from LAX to downtown LA that's the hard part. 
I will highlight that if you're trying to get to downtown LA from LAX, it's terrible. Unlike SFO to downtown SF, there is NO mass transit connecting the two. I think that would be an excellent use of mass transit, but right now you have to take a bus from LAX to the Green Line, tranfer to the Blue Line, and then transfer to the Red Line if you want to get to Union Station. That would be a pain in the ass, and take at least an hour plus. 
But I can't imagine why anyone needs to get to downtown LA?
Part of it for me is living in Orange County and absolutely hating to drive into downtown LA, but outside of sporting events, concerts, etc, I can't imagine many reasons to go to downtown LA. And HSR would take you to Union Station. LA also has so much sprawl that you'd find yourself having difficult public transit here anyway, or taking Ubers/taxis everywhere.
Generally business travelers are going to need the freedom of a rental car and can shoulder or expense the cost, and probably aren't going straight to downtown LA anyway because business in LA is all over the place. Which means that getting to LAX (or Burbank, or Ontario, or Long Beach, or John Wayne--we do have 5 major airports here) is probably just as functional as getting to Union Station downtown. If it's about vacationers, I highly doubt that enough vacationers are going to be riding HSR to create enough ridership to make any sense. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 03:50:57 PM
The state spent a huge sum on express lanes for I-75 outside the loop, toll lanes.  They are going to spend $1.8 billion more on express lanes, and some bus ways, for the north freeway (which is a disaster).  Those monies can't be spent on rail anything by law.

We were headed to Costco today to get gas and the wife stopped of the the tile shop, and then I noticed they had Peachtree closed for some reason, and I had to divert to another Costco out near Marietta, the traffic at 1 PM was ridiculous.  I would never live here if I had to face that daily.  I-285 is 6 lanes each way and was packed, but at least it was moving.
IMHO Atlanta's problem is similar to Seattle's. It wasn't some steady growth that allowed them to slowly increase highway capacity in line with population growth. It was stable population and then BOOM it exploded. For Seattle it was Microsoft and Amazon, and then it became a tech center.
As much as we complain about SoCal traffic, we have an extremely robust freeway system here. Atlanta doesn't. They have far fewer people than we do in SoCal, but they have far too many for the infrastructure they've built out. And more are coming every day.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 04:02:38 PM
Atlanta's growth has been pretty steady since the 1960s.  I don't think there was some point where it really took off after that point.

1900 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_United_States_Census)419,375
1910 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1910_United_States_Census)522,44224.6%
1920 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_United_States_Census)622,28319.1%
1930 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_United_States_Census)715,39115.0%
1940 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_United_States_Census)820,57914.7%
1950 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1950_United_States_Census)997,66621.6%
1960 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_United_States_Census)1,312,47431.6%
1970 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_United_States_Census)1,763,62634.4%
1980 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_Census)2,233,32426.6%
1990 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_Census)2,959,95032.5%
2000 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_Census)4,112,19838.9%
2010 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Census)5,268,86028.1%
Est. 20175,884,73611.7%

The area has no geographic barriers, so folks can move further and further out.  


Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 04:13:06 PM
Battery costs aren't going to be the issue for much longer. The demand is already so high and growing so fast that economies of scale continue to bring down the costs, and recycling them as they degrade will be cost-effective, too. The main question is if/when better chemistries / battery technologies will become cost-effective compared to Lithium Ion.
You might be right. I'm asking questions because I'm not an expert on lithium mining. 
Just pointing out that with ANY resource, mining companies are going to look at expected demand that can be satisfied based on price to extract it from the ground. If they believe they will be overproducing and cause prices to drop too quickly, they'll hold off investment or they'll get into trouble. 
If demand is growing faster than supply, that acts as a significant brake on price reduction. Again talking SSDs because it's my field, demand is growing very fast. But as the production switched over from 2D to 3D NAND, demand overtook supply and the entire industry was in allocation and making a lot of money. Then it swapped, and right now were in an oversupply and prices are low. It seems like it's coming back into balance slowly, from what I read.
Batteries (and the metals needed to sustain them) aren't going to be different, because you can't just wish extra lithium into existence. Much like oil, as technology improves, we get more efficient at extracting resources. But we can't just assume that the mining industry can and will be able to continuously decrease production costs on a nice curve while satisfying the insatiable demand necessary to electrify the world's fleet of automobiles. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 04:54:45 PM
Having spent a lot of time in SJ/SF, I agree that it's quite useful there. SF is so expensive that it's nearly impossible to live in the city unless you're rich, and it's so space-constrained that it's almost impossible to justify a car day-to-day. And because it's so centralized, having BART to get right into the heart of downtown is nice--particularly because BART goes to SFO. For people coming into the city that know they won't need a rental car, BART gets them from the airport to downtown in ~25 minutes IIRC.
Light rail in San Jose and on the Peninsula? Much less useful. Outside of SF, there's a lot more sprawl, where it's unlikely that you not only live close enough to a light rail station and your destination is close enough to a light rail station to justify the additional time and cost of taking light rail. For travelers, if you're there on business, there's no connection from SJC to light rail, so if you wanted to get to a light rail station you'd need to Uber/taxi to the light rail. At which point you might as well either rent a car or just Uber from destination to destination.
Question: what brings you to downtown LA, and do you think your experience is typical? If you live close to SFO, it should be no more than a 2 1/2 hour trip to get you to LAX. It's the getting from LAX to downtown LA that's the hard part.
I will highlight that if you're trying to get to downtown LA from LAX, it's terrible. Unlike SFO to downtown SF, there is NO mass transit connecting the two. I think that would be an excellent use of mass transit, but right now you have to take a bus from LAX to the Green Line, tranfer to the Blue Line, and then transfer to the Red Line if you want to get to Union Station. That would be a pain in the ass, and take at least an hour plus.
But I can't imagine why anyone needs to get to downtown LA?
Part of it for me is living in Orange County and absolutely hating to drive into downtown LA, but outside of sporting events, concerts, etc, I can't imagine many reasons to go to downtown LA. And HSR would take you to Union Station. LA also has so much sprawl that you'd find yourself having difficult public transit here anyway, or taking Ubers/taxis everywhere.
Generally business travelers are going to need the freedom of a rental car and can shoulder or expense the cost, and probably aren't going straight to downtown LA anyway because business in LA is all over the place. Which means that getting to LAX (or Burbank, or Ontario, or Long Beach, or John Wayne--we do have 5 major airports here) is probably just as functional as getting to Union Station downtown. If it's about vacationers, I highly doubt that enough vacationers are going to be riding HSR to create enough ridership to make any sense.
Lots of stuff to unpack here. Most of my work in LA has been downtown. While Burbank can be a better airport to fly in and out of, there are far fewer flights in and out of there (same for Long Beach and Orange County), so LAX is the most common for me. And I can't remember renting a car in LA. Too much hassle driving--the traffic is terrible and the parking is expensive. Last time I was down there was for pleasure with SFIrish and the boy. We flew into Long Beach (left the house about 7 am, took a cab to the airport--about 7 minutes--waited for the flight, and arrived in Long Beach at 11:15, I think, so four hours to get to the airport) and took a ride service where we were going. The second trip was to Orange County, so cost a bit more, but it was still far less expensive to pay for the ride share than to rent a car. The fare was no less than an HSR fare would have been, the time it took was at least as long, and the experience was much less pleasant. Great use for HSR. With a stop at either Union Station or Anaheim, that covers a lot of
As for travel time from SFO to LAX, you can get it down to about 2-1/2 hours (without routinely missing flights) if you are willing to take a little risk in how much time you sit in the airport--I'm cautious, so I allow more time. The flight time itself is negligible, but security and the vagaries of air travel add time on average. A lot of time. And then, yes, it's getting into and out of LAX that adds a lot more.
The other issue is population and jobs growth. SFO is basically at capacity now, and San Jose and Oakland are near it. To get more people connected to SoCal will require another way to do it.
I think the only light rail in the Bay Area is down in Santa Clara (e.g., San Jose up to Mountain View, I think). Most rail here is heavy (BART is electric, but still heavy rail). I live on the Peninsula and the traditional diesel electric train is the best way to get into my job in San Francisco, though the southernmost BART station is also convenient for me and I use it a bit, too. The traditional commute train has very strong ridership up and down the Peninsula during commute hours, as does BART--and that's with generally weak first mile/last mile transportation options when you get where you are going. Population density and growth is such that everywhere on the Peninsula and in the Silicon Valley, the traffic (and cost of housing) is bad. Commuting intercity in a car sucks most of the time. The current plan on the passenger rail is to convert to electric rolling stock--construction is underway and I think is scheduled to complete in 2022. Electric rail will increase the speed and frequency of the trains, making them even more useful.

You are right about light rails failure to connect to SJC. Ridiculous. Other than that, I'm not real familiar with light rail in San Jose, as I'm not down there enough to make use (or not) of it.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 05:04:13 PM
Tidbits of positive news, though billions are going to roads still of course:

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/4/17/18410700/path400-trail-buckhead-sandy-springs-construction (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/4/17/18410700/path400-trail-buckhead-sandy-springs-construction)

(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gWVgZcfSfz9KN-7DuTs9unI8ruQ=/0x0:920x613/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:920x613):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16128117/JTP_4102.0.jpg)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 05:04:45 PM
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-Jn1FJi6GwiXs3rS6rXRRF5RJsQ=/0x0:750x583/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:750x583):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16128114/RegionalTrailGaps.FromAtlantaCurbed.jpg)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 05:38:46 PM
Thanks @SFBadger96 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=51) -- I could see if you spend a lot of time downtown, that a direct shot to Union Station would be preferable. Surprised you never rented a car in LA though... My guess is that your work is a lot different than mine. IIRC, you're a lawyer? I would assume that's a lot more "downtown-centric" than engineering which is a lot more spread out. 

I'm more used to the Orange County and San Jose airports, where I've never had any trouble with security. Orange County can be a little bit of a problem with the 6:45 AM scheduled flights, because the earliest you're allowed to take off is 7:00 AM, so oddly enough 6:00-6:45 AM is the busiest time of the entire airport. But I find that in either airport, I rarely spend more than 15 minutes getting through security. SFO and LAX can be a lot worse. 

But part of it might be that I don't understand the anger some people have with flying. Perhaps because I do it so often. But for that 6:45 AM flight, I can be out my door at 5:30 and in my rental car in San Jose before 8:30 AM. I can't imagine that being possible with HSR.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 17, 2019, 06:05:16 PM
Yup--a lawyer, so most of my time down there is going to downtown law offices and the courts (Stanley Mosk, which is the main courthouse, most of all).

My experience on rail versus planes is that 3 hours on rail is way better time than 3 hours getting somewhere by plane. No more than about 15 minutes idle time (on the platform), then all the time on the car itself you can work, nap, read, whatever. That NorCal/SoCal flight, with only about 45 minutes in the air, there is precious little time that can be productive; most of it is security, gate time, then takeoff and landing time--with very little space to use a computer, even when I can. So I would take a three-hour train ride over a 3-hour flying experience every time.

Now--as to the bureaucracy and resulting expense of the California HSR project, that's a whole different question. Of course, a significant portion of that cost has been driven by all the challenges to the rail thrown up by anti-rail people who knew that their best bet to kill it was to make it more expensive.

One last thing, fwiw--my house is seven houses and one two-lane road away from where the HSR track would be (where the commuter rail is) in my neck of the woods.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 17, 2019, 06:10:48 PM
I once was scheduled to fly to London out of Dayton (to save money) through Atlanta.  When I got to Dayton, I was told all the flights to ATL were cancelled.  The agent got me on the flight from Cincy to London direct though, I just had about 60 miles to drive in about 60 minutes.  I made it, barely, there was no one in line in Cincy at the Delta counter.  I got on the plane and realized all my travel plans were based on arriving at Heathrow, and this plane was going to Gatwick  No internet back then.

So, we land and I'm casting about trying to figure out how to get to London and I see signed for "The Gatwick Express", but no arrows.  It took me a while to find where to get a ticket, but I did, and sat down on the train reading something when two police in tactical gear with a dog come through carrying MP4s.  They ask me if that is my luggage and the dog smells it and moves on.

So, after about 40 minutes we get to Victoria Station, a rather large facility, and I'm pulling luggage and looking for an exit sign.  I figure if I can see the sun I can get a general direction to where I'm headed, but no exit signs.  After meandering about a while, I notice signs saying "Way out", like yeah, man, cool.  (My first trip to London.)  So, I get out and read the sun and head in the general direction of Mayfair where I was staying, tired of course, and end up walking the entire distance.  I find the hotel and take care of business, and on the flight back, Delta was asking for volunteers.  I put my hand up and said OK, I'd get $500 Delta dollars and I asked for an upgrade to First Class, which they granted.  I'm in 1C and a tall dude is in 1A, and I finally realize he is Nuke Laloush in the flesh.

Anyway, I have a close connection to get back to Cincy out of Laguardia and the plan sits on the runway for an hour, we arrived in time, but no gate is open.  So, I miss my flight, nothing until tomorrow.  Bummer.  Have to stay over night, but I did get the Delta dollars at least.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 17, 2019, 06:39:55 PM
I once was scheduled to fly to London out of Dayton (to save money) through Atlanta.  When I got to Dayton, I was told all the flights to ATL were cancelled.  The agent got me on the flight from Cincy to London direct though, I just had about 60 miles to drive in about 60 minutes.  I made it, barely, there was no one in line in Cincy at the Delta counter.  I got on the plane and realized all my travel plans were based on arriving at Heathrow, and this plane was going to Gatwick  No internet back then.
Last March, when the wife and I were headed to Italy/France for our elopement and honeymoon, we were originally supposed to leave from LAX on Wednesday morning, through Philly, then direct to Rome. We were supposed to arrive first thing in the morning Thursday and have all day there, and then Friday had reservations for the Vatican. 

Well, this was when the big Nor'easter hit last spring, and lo and behold I find out on Tuesday that the Philly->Rome flight is cancelled. So I spend hours on the phone with American, with a nice lady who is *trying* to be helpful but has her hands somewhat tied because we were flying on points instead of an actual revenue fare. Everything she's finding has us leaving on Friday or even Saturday, which basically means we have zero time to do anything in Rome before moving on to the Cinque Terre. 
So I'm working every angle I can work, and she's looking up everything she can find. Eventually she says "hang on, let me check something with my manager." Comes back and says she's normally not supposed to do it, but if I was willing to not only change planes but change airports in London, she could make it work and I'd leave Wednesday evening. I say "sure". 
So we fly direct from LAX to Heathrow, arriving about 9 AM. We have a 6 PM flight from Gatwick to Rome. I have coworkers in an office in Leatherhead right near Gatwick, so I'm trying to guilt them into hanging out and showing us around and maybe having pints [my treat], but given that it was going to be the middle of a work day, no luck. I start researching how to make use of those 9 hours and maybe see some of London instead. Figure it might work, although shlepping our bags around London all day didn't sound fun.
As it stands, we get in at 9 AM, we're just dead tired from the redeye flight, not feeling well from fatigue. Sightseeing wasn't an option. We eat crappy airport food in Heathrow, catch an Uber to Gatwick, only to realize it's about noon and they won't let you check in for a flight or past security until 3 PM. So we sit on terrible chairs in baggage claim, me reading my kindle with my legs up on my suitcase and her feeling like hell trying to sleep, until 3. Finally get through check-in, through security, and we're into the terminal. The sad, sad terminal. We manage to choke down some fish & chips and my wife looks at "mushy peas" with disgust [she doesn't like peas anyway] and a couple of pints, and finally get into Rome about 1 AM Friday morning. Crash and just barely wake up in enough time to get to the Vatican. 
To this day, I'm not sure if my wife can remember the name of Gatwick. For now and forever more, it's just going to be "sad airport" in London lol!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: CWSooner on April 17, 2019, 07:09:51 PM
When we bought the VW, our salesman told us he could get us a better deal if we financed part of it.  The loan was 1.9% over 60 months, so I took it.  Their initial offer was lower than I was prepared to spend.  We dickered a little bit on some options and that was that.

I thought I'd get maybe $3000 off list and they offered $5K out of the gate.  It wasn't the color I preferred, but I like it fine.

I think large volume dealers just move cars and make profit on numbers, incentives for selling X per month.
I sold new Chevrolets in a prior life, back in the late '70s.  We could definitely sell a car at a cheaper price if the customer was willing to finance through GMAC.
How big a hit do you take if you finance it and then pay off the loan after one month?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2019, 07:48:02 PM
I think it was beneficial for me to finance the 2015 Chevy Silverado for 5 years and wait until one year had gone by, then pay it off
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 17, 2019, 10:10:01 PM
The Atlanta situation made me consider this as an idea....kind of a high-speed, elevated or tunnel land ferry system.

Have a central hub, with a track going out in the direction of each major suburb (4-6 different directions).  You'd load up 2 rows of cars on each ferry, maybe 20 cars total, maybe 50? and it would speed into the central hub.  It empties, loads up any cars headed out, and speeds back out, one on each track back to its suburb. 

Basically just speeding back and forth - no loop or anything, just a group of massive, high-speed car ferries, bypassing all the traffic.  Maybe it'd need to hold 100 cars to matter, I don't know.  Is that a crazy idea?  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2019, 10:19:49 PM
can't we simply get jet packs for everyone?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 17, 2019, 10:40:12 PM
Lots of ideas. Lots of no money. Lots of taxes. 



I'll do my best to avoid taxes, by choosing to distribute my wealth, where I choose to put it. I don't need some dumbass elected official to do it for me. I'm better than "them" at dong it.




#soapboxoff
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: DevilFroggy on April 18, 2019, 06:01:54 AM
Contrary to popular belief, the US's rail infrastructure by and large is pretty damn good at what it's meant to do... move freight. The fact we can't just put bullet trains on tracks full of freight trains doesn't mean we have "poor" rail infrastructure. 

If the US wants a nationwide high speed rail system then a whole new network of tracks will need to be built and it should go without saying that is extremely expensive

But really, high speed rail is only feasible in areas of very high population density, which most of the US is not. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 06:17:57 AM
In my case, I could pay off the loan in a month with no penalty.  I think I had to make the first payment.  As the interest rate is 1.9% and I'm paying 3.7% on the condo, I'm letting it ride.  It is through VW Credit.

I think people don't like buses but they are flexible and carry a lot of people, and can move quickly if on elevated busways.  I saw something about a "people pod" that could carry about 8 people and was to be autonomous, so I mused about having elevated paths for those things.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2019, 07:48:03 AM
In my case, I could pay off the loan in a month with no penalty.  I think I had to make the first payment.  As the interest rate is 1.9% and I'm paying 3.7% on the condo, I'm letting it ride.  It is through VW Credit.

When rates are that low, it would be silly to pay them off and not make much more on your money elsewhere.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2019, 08:08:33 AM
Chicago lead the country for large city population loss for 2018!! Yay, Chicago!!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2019, 08:11:25 AM
Chicago's population has been trending down for a while now, save for a blip before the crash happened. What should be very disturbing to local and state leaders is the decline in collar county population. That's a huge turn of events.


The metro numbers are also a bit skewed in they include parts of SE Wisconsin and NW Indiana - states people from Illinois are relocating to, in droves.



https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-census-chicago-cook-county-population-decline-20190408-story.html
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2019, 08:15:22 AM
 I'm in 1C and a tall dude is in 1A, and I finally realize he is Nuke Laloush in the flesh.
You mean Andy Dufresne ?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 18, 2019, 08:21:54 AM
can't we simply get jet packs for everyone?
Or Mr Scott beaming everyone up would be smashingly efficient also
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 09:02:27 AM
You mean Andy Dufresne ?
Yeah, him too.  He had a beard and was wearing a hat, so he was somewhat disguised.
There was an elderly British lady in 1B and he and I were assisting her with her folding table and whatnot.
I ALMOST walked out in front of a bus on that trip looking the wrong way.  The driver leaned on his horn seeing me looking the wrong way.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 09:05:47 AM
We've lived here a year now, and the plethora of scooters and bikes has exploded.  I now see piles of scooters like ten to a bunch sitting around.  Often they are in the sidewalk and a hazard to navigation (or perambulation).  The various bikes are all over as well, Uber has joined the fray.

We've almost been hit a few times by folks on scooters coming up from behind, you can't hear them.  The city is talking about the problem and hazard and now there is an ap for reporting improperly stowed scooters that I have not used.  On the one hand, it's a neat form of transportation, but on the other they are hazardous.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 09:17:40 AM
The scooters have become an issue in many large cities across the country.  In Austin we've already had at least two fatalities and a lot of injuries resulting from their use.  I believe some cities are already moving to ban them, and heavy regulation at the very least seems likely.  Still not sure it will help much.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 09:29:54 AM
They are another reason to eschew "electromagnetism" entirely.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2018/11/26/18112586/midtown-alliance-shareable-scooter-bike-regulation-last-mile (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2018/11/26/18112586/midtown-alliance-shareable-scooter-bike-regulation-last-mile)“We likely haven’t hit ‘peak scooter’ yet.”
That’s according to Kevin Green, president and CEO of Midtown Alliance, which last week shared with city officials its recommendations for regulating the dockless, shareable vehicles that have lately taken Atlanta by storm.
“We believe that electric scooters provide a much-needed last-mile transit option for Atlantans, but we’ve also witnessed firsthand the safety challenges that come with it,” Green said, according to a Midtown Alliance news release (https://www.midtownatl.com/about/news-center/post/midtown-alliance-offers-suggestions-to-city-on-dockless-scooter-regs), which announced the organization’s stance on Atlanta City Council legislation that would create rules for shareable vehicle companies.
The proposal, which initially emerged in September, seeks to impose regulations (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2018/11/13/18091424/councilmembers-proposed-regulations-shareable-scooters-bikes-last-mile) on where people can ride and park dockless scooters and bikes, and how the operating companies can do business within city limits.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 18, 2019, 09:40:16 AM
We have plenty of money for any transportation infrastructure we want, it's just being tossed into the defense budget. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2019, 10:01:05 AM
We have plenty of money for any transportation infrastructure we want, it's just being tossed into the defense budget.
Well, that's not entirely true...
"We" don't even have the money for the defense budget. The defense budget IIRC is somewhere on the order of $700B a year. We're running yearly deficits expected to be greater than $1T per year going forward. So even if you cut the defense budget to zero, we're still >$300B annually in the hole. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2019, 10:03:35 AM
I think the scooter regulations are honestly a solution in search of a problem. My guess is that within a year or two, the scooter "fad" will end of its own accord, particularly as right now growth for the scooter companies is huge but profitability is not. Do they even have a sustainable business model?

Give it two years, and those scooters will be a thing of the past IMHO.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 10:38:45 AM
They are heavily used around here.  I don't see many on rented bikes, but I see scooters everywhere being ridden.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 11:13:41 AM
I think the scooter regulations are honestly a solution in search of a problem. My guess is that within a year or two, the scooter "fad" will end of its own accord, particularly as right now growth for the scooter companies is huge but profitability is not. Do they even have a sustainable business model?

Give it two years, and those scooters will be a thing of the past IMHO.
Agree with you here.
A lot of people hate the way some users carelessly leave them lying around in dangerous locations.  A lot of people hate the way they look, sitting around all over the palce, and believe they're nothing more than litter in our city.  A lot of people are throwing them into the lake and down storm drains.
Seems like the cost of replacing scooters regularly is only going to harm further these companies' lack of profitability.  
Beyond that, area hospitals are seeing some significant spikes in injuries resulting from riding and/or being crashed into by these things, so it's only a matter of time before the lawsuits start pouring in as well.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 12:37:27 PM
Evidently people find them useful around here, so I doubt they go away.  More regs, yes.

It's mostly the young folks using them, which is a bit ironic in a way.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2019, 12:43:12 PM
Evidently people find them useful around here, so I doubt they go away.  More regs, yes.

It's mostly the young folks using them, which is a bit ironic in a way.
They're "cool" and novel. Eventually they won't be cool anymore. 
The question is whether there's a sustainable business model there once the novelty wears off. If people aren't returning the scooters to where they're supposed to be, and the damage/maintenance costs start adding up, I'm not sure there's a business model there. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 12:51:18 PM
My understanding is they are intended to be left lying around wherever.  Folks come through at night and collect them and recharge them.  The next day they are all nicely lined up in various places.  I think many find them to have utility, not novelty.  My step son uses them often in SF he says.  

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 18, 2019, 01:13:12 PM
They do have a lot of utility. Particularly for the first generation of kids in the US to have a lower percentage of drivers licenses and car ownership than a generation that preceded it (in the automobile age, obviously).

As a cyclist, I'm amused that people choose this more dangerous and less useful device for this kind of transportation over similar fleets of traditional or even electric bicycles, but that has definitely been the experience in cities where there is a choice. People are strange.

Either way, it is a low-cost and efficient means of transportation; all it needs is infrastructure to support it. While people are more than happy to lard the federal highway bill (and state equivalents) up with money to subsidize the single most dangerous form of mass transportation we have, the rare serious injury and the bumps and bruises related to scooters (and bicycles) turn into a big impediment to spending comparatively little on supporting infrastructure.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2019, 01:28:51 PM
https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/1/11/18178476/bike-lanes-complete-streets-renew-atlanta-tsplost-projects (https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/1/11/18178476/bike-lanes-complete-streets-renew-atlanta-tsplost-projects)

Folks are trying some around here, but funding remains an issue of course.  Since I've moved to an urban environment, I am even less thrilled about new freeway lanes.

(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_Jg3xKxAsfzU2Lvo27E8z99K1qE=/0x0:920x613/1200x800/filters:focal(387x234:533x380)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62830115/juniper_pmontage_v7_160205_web.0.0.1547229231.jpg)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 02:16:38 PM
My understanding is they are intended to be left lying around wherever.  Folks come through at night and collect them and recharge them.  The next day they are all nicely lined up in various places.  I think many find them to have utility, not novelty.  My step son uses them often in SF he says.  
That is the intention.  But folks don't always "come through at night" and so they are sometimes left around for days. Others get sick of it and throw them in the lake.  As you can imagine, having your fleet thrown away is detrimental to profits. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2019, 02:23:58 PM
I'm happy to live in a small town.

a small town located in the middle of no where

no transportation issues here

and plenty of fresh water and clean air
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 18, 2019, 02:46:05 PM
A lot of cities (mine included--both where I live and where I work) are trying on bike/ped (which basically includes scooters) infrastructure. But it's remarkably slow in coming about, particularly because anytime you suggest taking a square foot of road or parking away from the cars people lose their freaking minds, regardless of what the research and traffic studies show. Also, a lot of transportation infrastructure is funded at the state and federal level because of the dollar amounts involved (not realistic to raise that based on city-level taxation), where the overwhelming percentage of dollars is allocated to the automobile. Small little slices of that would hardly be missed and would make a huge difference in the bike/ped budgets.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 18, 2019, 02:46:57 PM
That is the intention.  But folks don't always "come through at night" and so they are sometimes left around for days. Others get sick of it and throw them in the lake.  As you can imagine, having your fleet thrown away is detrimental to profits.
True. And cars get left around at night and during the day, too. All the time. Everywhere. Yet no one seems to mind. Cars are harder to throw in a lake, though.

PS I'm a zealot. :-)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 18, 2019, 06:18:18 PM
True. And cars get left around at night and during the day, too. All the time. Everywhere. Yet no one seems to mind. Cars are harder to throw in a lake, though.

PS I'm a zealot. :-)
Cars aren't generally thrown all over the sidewalks.
PS-- I'm not so much a zealout, more of a curious contrarian.  :)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 18, 2019, 06:39:21 PM
Pot stirring abounds.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 18, 2019, 07:16:39 PM
Cars aren't generally thrown all over the sidewalks.
PS-- I'm not so much a zealout, more of a curious contrarian.  :)
I think that Bird scooters, much like Tesla cars that do 0-60 in 3.2s, are pretty cool.
I'm just not sure either company is going to be around in 2 years without bankruptcy.
(If Tesla makes it 2 more quarters, they'll probable make it 2 years. But I don't give them that long.)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 18, 2019, 07:25:37 PM
Cars aren't generally thrown all over the sidewalks.
PS-- I'm not so much a zealout, more of a curious contrarian.  :)
No, cars are strewn--parked and abandoned often for days at a time--all over our public roads, sitting there, blocking our views, taking up valuable space, and covering it in mismatched, loud, and ugly colors, shapes, and sizes. And they can't be easily moved when they are in the way.
;)
People complain about a scooter or a bike on a sidewalk like it's the end of the world. "It's ugly!" "It's in the way!" "It's blocking the way!" Are you kidding me? Cars are parked all over our public roads, in the way, blocking driveways, ugly, and much harder to get out of our way than some 5-10 pound scooter, or a 30-pound (bikeshare) bike on wheels. It's ridiculous. We're just so used to it that it doesn't occur to us that cars parked on public streets are taking up valuable space and polluting our visual spaces. And they sure as heck are a much bigger nuisance when they "block the way" than some tiny wheeled vehicle that can be moved by almost anybody. GRRRR!
[/zealot's rant]
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 18, 2019, 08:08:55 PM
stupid people that ride bikes on rural 2-lane highways are in the way, a nuisance, and endanger drivers and of course themselves

darwinism at work

then the county puts up road signs at encourage drivers to "share the Road"??

 (https://www.michiganradio.org/sites/michigan/files/styles/medium/public/201606/screen_shot_2016-06-09_at_2.22.04_pm.png)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 18, 2019, 08:43:40 PM
I do approve of certain areas around (indy) town where the Lime/Bird scooters have some designated squares for parking the scooters, that has actually contained some of the junk yard appearances.   I just wish they would enforce the 'no sidewalk' rule a bit, as that's where the accidents go down.   That and if you're not careful, the old school brick pavers around the circle and on a few of the adjacent streets, you do see some pretty terrific wipeouts.   

My observational inferences suggest a high % of users are convention attendees.

Regarding hyper aggressive implementation of bike lanes, (again observational) it looked really stupid in the Twin Cities earlier this winter when I was in town.   They are mostly panned in NYC too, not so much for the long winter rendering many of them useless, but for making Manhattan traffic even worse.    Correlated or not (I suppose smartphones are a greater cause)  pedestrian fatalities are on a steady rise in large cities.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 11:28:14 AM
I just think the gap between "build it and they will come" bike lane proponents and reality is large.

I feel like there are two types of people:


The first group thinks that if we just get enough infrastructure built, the second group will abandon their cars en masse in favor of two-wheeled utopia. 

But the second group much prefers their cup-holders and drive-through windows and talk radio and legs that don't hurt.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 19, 2019, 12:28:51 PM
I'm a zealot, but at some level a realist. I don't think we will abandon cars en masse, but I know that replacing even 5% of car travel with cycling (or scooters or walking) would be a huge benefit to everyone. The lack of safe infrastructure is the single biggest thing preventing that.

There is tons of evidence that cycling infrastructure benefits communities--and improves traffic.

Part of the issue with the traffic is that when most of the roads were built, no one had studied traffic. Now that we have road design is much improved, but unless a government has a reason to invest in new road design, it doesn't happen. So it's probably less cycling infrastructure, and more new infrastructure that helps with traffic flow.

Unfortunately, most people don't know a thing about how traffic works, but think they do because they drive in it. A lot of people want more lanes and more parking, neither of which is generally a good idea. What they don't want is change; so traffic circles and road diets (and even just construction delays for something new), despite plenty of evidence that they are both safer and improve throughput (in the right circumstances--that's not a blanket statement), are met with outrage.

A good example in my town: an intersection was redone because it was a terrible design and limited throughput. The construction outraged people because it's a big intersection in town. When it was finished, there's no question that it improved throughput (i.e., improved traffic). One of the roads it served added a second left turn lane and a section of green paint for a bike lane--without taking away ANY lanes from the cars. Now, despite improved throughput, anytime someone leaves their house late and has to wait at the traffic light in a line of cars (which has been a problem forever there), they blame it on the bike lane, which has obviously ruined their commute (despite literally not changing the available asphalt for the cars). It's remarkable.

And yeah, people lose their minds over a bicycle or scooter left on a tree belt, but think their constitutional rights are threatened if someone suggests they shouldn't be able to park their car in front of their neighbor's house whenever they feel like it.

Bwar, your dichotomy isn't far off in the U.S., but for those of us in the first camp, we see lots of other places in the world where bikes are just ordinary transportation for large parts of the populace, and people who wear lycra and ride carbon fiber bikes are the exception, not the norm. For us, we're jealous of those other places, and we just grin and bear it when our friends come back from Europe and talk about how great their cities are, how walkable they are, and how nice the bike riding for all is (not true everywhere, but true in a lot of places). And, we always grin when a friend says, "you know, I rode my bike downtown yesterday, and it was great! I didn't have to search for parking, it felt good, and it didn't take very long." But that comment is almost always followed by ... "I just wish it was safer; that would make me want to do it more."

The idea that scooters and cyclists have anything to do with the rise in pedestrian fatalities is ridiculous. It is 100% due to the way people are driving their cars/trucks. Traffic fatalities in general are on the rise after decades of them decreasing due to safety improvements in the cars themselves. The only reasonable explanation is driving behavior (WAY more distractions in the vehicle). Cyclists may be involved in 5 pedestrian deaths a year (?--it's so rare there basically aren't any studies on it). Cars killed more than 6000 pedestrians last year (total motor vehicle deaths climbed over 40,000 in 2017 in the U.S.--another increase consistent with a steady rise over the last several years).

And Fearless, that looks like a beautiful road, with curves and sidewalks, too, so unlikely particularly high speed. What's the concern--that you'll have to slow down and pass a cyclist from time to time, costing you maybe 15 seconds of your day?

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 12:46:46 PM
my concern is that someone will be killed, either the cyclist or the passenger of the vehicle

the main highway between my small town of 400 and Sewer City, around 100,000 is a curvy, hilly 2-lane of about 12 miles.  Speed limit because of the narrowness of the road and shoulders and the curves and hills is 50 mph.

Of course the cyclists in Sewer City just love the road.  Especially a few months before RAGBRIA, getting ready....  https://ragbrai.com/ (https://ragbrai.com/)

It's just not safe.  If a vehicle comes over a hill or around a curve at 50-55 mph and there is a cyclist going 25 mph it can be hard to slow down in time.  With distracted driving at all-time high levels it's very dangerous to the cyclist.  Obviously dangerous to the vehicle if forced to swerve into the other lane of on coming traffic or onto the narrow shoulder and the ditch.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 12:54:53 PM
The era of oil is coming to an end, with global oil production set to halve in the next five to six years. To avoid a global economic slump, the transition to 100% renewables worldwide needs to be accelerated. It is feasible and cheaper than the current system, research shows.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 19, 2019, 12:56:27 PM
So the concern is that distracted, unsafe drivers will continue to be distracted and unsafe?

I guess I understand that, but cyclists aren't the issue, unsafe drivers are. I would bet that there are already motor vehicle wrecks on that road and that there are far more of them that have nothing to do with cyclists than do. Maybe I'm wrong, but I would be surprised. 

And this--for zealots like me--is exactly the problem. Our culture is so used to poor driving and motor vehicle carnage, that we don't blame it for the problems it causes--and we make essentially zero effort to address the real problem: drivers. It's one of the reason I am so excited for the future of autonomous vehicles.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 01:16:40 PM
no, not entirely ..............

more than a few dozen times I've had to hit the brakes extremely hard or swerved hard to keep from hitting a cyclist on that road.

yes, I was going 5 over the posted 50 mph, but I was not distracted, actually on the look out for cyclists, knowing that it was a nice day and they would be out on the road.

the problem is that it's not a safe road for cyclists, regardless of the awareness and carefulness of drivers.

It's too hilly and curvy with blind spots ahead, no decent shoulder, and too much traffic

On a flat and /or straight road where you can see an 1/8 mile or more ahead and slow down for a bicycle, that's fine

putting up "share the road" signs on a dangerous road doesn't make it safe
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 01:32:10 PM
I'm a zealot, but at some level a realist. I don't think we will abandon cars en masse, but I know that replacing even 5% of car travel with cycling (or scooters or walking) would be a huge benefit to everyone. The lack of safe infrastructure is the single biggest thing preventing that.

Bwar, your dichotomy isn't far off in the U.S., but for those of us in the first camp, we see lots of other places in the world where bikes are just ordinary transportation for large parts of the populace, and people who wear lycra and ride carbon fiber bikes are the exception, not the norm. For us, we're jealous of those other places, and we just grin and bear it when our friends come back from Europe and talk about how great their cities are, how walkable they are, and how nice the bike riding for all is (not true everywhere, but true in a lot of places). And, we always grin when a friend says, "you know, I rode my bike downtown yesterday, and it was great! I didn't have to search for parking, it felt good, and it didn't take very long." But that comment is almost always followed by ... "I just wish it was safer; that would make me want to do it more."
Yeah, and I just wish dieting and exercise were easier... I'd totally lose some weight! ;)
I think even before the safe infrastructure thing are a few problems for general people:

As an example... When I was briefly dating between my divorce and meeting my new wife, there was something that you'd see in basically *EVERY* girl's dating profile. They all love "hiking". Well, at the time I was doing a LOT of hiking. I was all over the trails, and we have great ones here, on a regular basis. Where were all these girls? If as many of them as claimed they liked hiking actually hiked regularly, those trails would have been DRIPPING with p***y. And not to say there were never girls hiking, but the amount that were on the trails were nothing in comparison to those who claimed they liked it.

Almost all of those people who say "I'd totally bike if it were safer like in Europe" are lying. Probably not intentionally; they're lying to themselves as much as they're lying to you. But people who want to bike, already bike. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 01:41:41 PM
The era of oil is coming to an end, with global oil production set to halve in the next five to six years. To avoid a global economic slump, the transition to 100% renewables worldwide needs to be accelerated. It is feasible and cheaper than the current system, research shows.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/)
Read more carefully, please...

Quote
It shows that with no new investment, global oil production — including all unconventional sources — will drop by 50% by 2025 (Figure 1). That means that the global oil supply crunch is likely to happen already in the next five to six years and not in decades, as many fossil fuel companies hope. The global annual oil production is set to decline by approximately six million barrels per day starting in 2020. That means in the coming years the provision of energy related to oil will reduce annually by an amount equal to the total energy demand of Germany in 2014.
(https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019/04/image2-6.jpeg)

That "no new investment" bit is key. There's continued investment in finding oil. And just look at that chart... Do you honestly believe that's what oil production over the next 20 years will look like?

If you do believe this chart, mortgage/sell your house and start investing in oil futures, because they're going to SKYROCKET.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 01:53:51 PM
Energy from oil is used almost entirely for transportation.  Some is used to make chemicals of course.  If transportation electrifies, then oil demand would drop accordingly.  I read we'd be out of oil by the year 2000 .... in 1975.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 19, 2019, 01:59:25 PM
Again, I'm after a marginal change. 5% would be great. And commuting to work on a bike doesn't work for a lot of people. That said, bicycles (and scooters) are great for short trips, under a couple of miles. A lot of people routinely make those trips in cars when they don't have any need to, and when taking the car (and needing to park) isn't much--if at all--faster. It's those short trips--whether to your local downtown or your commute hub--that are ripe for picking. That's why those scooters are doing so well--people like to be able to get outside and make the short trip on that kind of transportation. And again, studies show that the "if you build it they will come" theory is correct as it relates to cycling infrastructure. That's not going to be true in every application, but it is true in many.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 01:59:59 PM
Energy from oil is used almost entirely for transportation.  Some is used to make chemicals of course.  If transportation electrifies, then oil demand would drop accordingly.  I read we'd be out of oil by the year 2000 .... in 1975.
Totally agree. But if you look at that graph, there's no way future oil production looks even close to that... At least not on that timeline.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 02:03:07 PM
I see zero credible projections that oil production will drop by half by 2025, I view that as ludicrous.

(https://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/images/figure1.png)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264026/projections-of-us-oil-production/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/264026/projections-of-us-oil-production/)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 02:10:46 PM
Again, I'm after a marginal change. 5% would be great. And commuting to work on a bike doesn't work for a lot of people. That said, bicycles (and scooters) are great for short trips, under a couple of miles. A lot of people routinely make those trips in cars when they don't have any need to, and when taking the car (and needing to park) isn't much--if at all--faster. It's those short trips--whether to your local downtown or your commute hub--that are ripe for picking. That's why those scooters are doing so well--people like to be able to get outside and make the short trip on that kind of transportation. And again, studies show that the "if you build it they will come" theory is correct as it relates to cycling infrastructure. That's not going to be true in every application, but it is true in many.
And I get it. I'd like to see more of it. I actually just bought a bike personally, and I'm trying to find excuses to use it.
I just think that one of the reasons that people haven't remade their lives to be more bike-friendly is because it's always going to be a niche. I think a lot of cyclists get into the "true believer cult" mode and think it's going to be a lot bigger than reality will support...
Just my $0.02... But I'm a cynical asshole. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 19, 2019, 02:14:42 PM
The era of oil is coming to an end, with global oil production set to halve in the next five to six years. To avoid a global economic slump, the transition to 100% renewables worldwide needs to be accelerated. It is feasible and cheaper than the current system, research shows.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/the-largely-ignored-problem-of-global-peak-oil-will-seriously-hit-in-a-few-years/)
What are you talking about according to all the experts from the 70s we ran out of oil decades ago. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 19, 2019, 02:19:59 PM
What are you talking about according to all the experts from the 70s we ran out of oil decades ago.
That's ok... Didn't you see Jurassic Park and all the follow-on documentaries?
We had a lot of dinosaurs, and killed them, so now we have more oil.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 19, 2019, 02:24:34 PM
And I get it. I'd like to see more of it. I actually just bought a bike personally, and I'm trying to find excuses to use it.
I just think that one of the reasons that people haven't remade their lives to be more bike-friendly is because it's always going to be a niche. I think a lot of cyclists get into the "true believer cult" mode and think it's going to be a lot bigger than reality will support...
Just my $0.02... But I'm a cynical asshole.
I think autonomous vehicles will dramatically remake the transportation landscape. And I don't know how that will impact bicycles, specifically. It probably won't impact my working life much, but I suspect it will be big for my kids.

I agree that there are many zealots who see bigger changes than are reasonable to expect, but people on the fringes push for change. That's how things work. :-)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 02:27:35 PM
Nuclear fusion - the energy of the future, and always will be.

Hardly anyone is counting on commercial fusion in our lifetimes.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 02:35:40 PM
Long interview with former head of Cadillac, he's obviously very pro EV:

https://www.automobilemag.com/news/johan-de-nysschen-interview-gm-cadillac-autonomy/?sm_id=organic_fb_AMAG_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5cba0cce0cef930001bcd540&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR1edWUuHXy_i0grgHusUrBg8VPa0oCwLa0tOPkTRYEO_uQP7DdxtMMdIUU (https://www.automobilemag.com/news/johan-de-nysschen-interview-gm-cadillac-autonomy/?sm_id=organic_fb_AMAG_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5cba0cce0cef930001bcd540&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR1edWUuHXy_i0grgHusUrBg8VPa0oCwLa0tOPkTRYEO_uQP7DdxtMMdIUU)

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 19, 2019, 02:52:59 PM
What are you talking about according to all the experts from the 70s we ran out of oil decades ago.
I just posted the article because I thought it interesting.  I don't believe it.  I certainly hope it's not true
and yes, I remember the price of gas skyrocketing to 75 cents per gallon in 1976...  thought my father was gonna make the family walk through the Arizona dessert
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 19, 2019, 03:00:33 PM
The CleanTechnica article is hypothetical and unrealistic, but the EIA projections are for domestic production, which is a different matter altogether. Peak oil is a demand-side (not supply-side) issue now. I can't seem to find anything reported within the past year, but I'm pretty sure that domestic demand has basically been stagnant this decade.

That said, investment in oil & gas infrastructure is in decline. Many investors are reducing their investment in oil & gas companies (in some cases completely divesting though that's for good PR to some extent).
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 03:05:27 PM
If investors net are reducing investment in oil companies, their stock prices should reflect that.

Investment by those companies is of course not predicated on stock price, but on cash flow and management.

(https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/media/image/Exhibit02_2018-Oil-Gas-Trends.gif)

Capex looks to be advancing strongly.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 19, 2019, 03:42:00 PM
Most of that growth is a projection, and I'm skeptical about the objectivity of it.

Below are some articles from people in the oil & gas industry that are less optimistic:
https://www.ft.com/content/bc84470a-6e65-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa (https://www.ft.com/content/bc84470a-6e65-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa)
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/041819-schlumberger-sees-need-for-more-spending-internationally-but-expects-lower-north-america-capex (https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/041819-schlumberger-sees-need-for-more-spending-internationally-but-expects-lower-north-america-capex)
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Rapid-Acceleration-Towards-Peak-Oil-Demand.html (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Rapid-Acceleration-Towards-Peak-Oil-Demand.html)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 03:46:42 PM
I'm not surprised SLB would like to see more capital spending.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2019, 03:57:50 PM
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-It-Too-Late-To-Avoid-An-Oil-Supply-Crisis.html (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-It-Too-Late-To-Avoid-An-Oil-Supply-Crisis.html)

Interesting speculation about a rather large oil supply crunch ahead, which would mean high prices of course.  The boom-bust cycles must be a challenge to try and manage.

Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2019, 10:40:55 AM
I turned our heat back on this AM, was 45°F outside.

You can make a ° symbol by ALT248 on the keypad.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 20, 2019, 11:12:43 AM
I turned our heat back on this AM, was 45°F outside.

You can make a ° symbol by ALT248 on the keypad.
I turned my ac on yesterday it reached 100°F yesterday
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 20, 2019, 12:53:15 PM
Cold here today. Only a high of 64.

Although we're going to a BBQ further inland where it's supposed to be 72 this afternoon. 
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 20, 2019, 02:09:30 PM


You can make a ° symbol by ALT248 on the keypad.
google search for that info?
gonna be 80 here today, the golf course is full
first day of spring in the 80s
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MarqHusker on April 21, 2019, 12:28:20 AM
As someone who does bike a fair amount, not commuting though, I bike with no trust of the drivers around me.  I don't blame heightened injuries on peds or bicyclists at all.  Smartphones and the drivers themselves get most of that blame.  I'm just saying some of the ambitious bike lane design I see is foolish. 

Anecdotal to be sure but we had a variety of folks years ago in Milwaukee that wanted to build dedicated bike lanes on the Hoan Bridge, a 2 mile arched span, elevated about 120 feet right along Lake Michigan.   The bridge has a colorful and checkered history for many other reasons.  However, were talking about a city which avg air temperature is below 50 degrees, on a bridge wholly exposed to the elements.  Half your ride  is a gradual ascent.   I love biking but this was crazy expensive and not at all sensible on an interstate spur, not to mention downtown is no less accessible on bike via the city streets below and adjacent to the bridge. I guess that route is a little too icky for some.  More of the bus v train talk.   DOT ended up rejecting the idea. 

Long bike lanes over bridges do work in a lot of places but some places just make no sense.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 21, 2019, 01:51:08 AM
So we've got temps in the 40s in some places and temps reaching 100 elsewhere...when are we all supposed to be biking everywhere?  I don't want frozen hands or to show up sweating buckets, sorry.
And no, a 2-mile trip isn't quicker or as quick on a bike.  I'll drive there, do my business, and be halfway back home before you're halfway to the place on your bike.  


Bikes are great as the dominant transportation for 12 year olds, but that's about it.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2019, 05:59:24 AM
That can depend on traffic, and availability of dedicated bike lanes.  Around here there are times when biking, even walking, is a lot faster than driving.

That is one reason the scooters are so popular too.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2019, 10:02:50 AM
You can make a ° symbol by ALT248 on the keypad.
Simultaneously?HA - I got 24 :017: can't be done................by me :sign0085: ....................... °,just copy and pasted one ;D
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2019, 10:21:49 AM
The Ascii characters have to be done on the key pad, not the numbers above the keyboard.

≈°∙··Θßα▀▐ΓπΣσ▲
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2019, 10:45:04 AM
putting up "share the road" signs on a dangerous road doesn't make it safe
Just last week a buddy and I went out to some old farmsteads where he grew up at.Sadly almost all farms/fields/woods have been gobbled up by "Progress" :'(.Anyway we turned down this old country lane still there with a brooke running next to it.Still some old farms/homes on it.It was kind of winding with just slight embankments on both sides with woods.We did have a small jeep come by as we in his big Dodge Ram were leaving and that was a bit hairy with little room for maneuver.The worst that could have happened however is one vehicle slid into the ditch/culvert.Not like those roads set high in the Andes Mtns in Peru.I imagine back in the day it prolly happened more than few times though.Friend said when they were teenagers he stole away there with girlfriends.We were back there looking for places to metal detect - getting old
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MrNubbz on April 21, 2019, 10:54:07 AM
The Ascii characters have to be done on the key pad, not the numbers above the keyboard.

≈°∙··Θßα▀▐ΓπΣσ▲
ya well good luck hitting all those at precisely the same time.Need a friend or an octopus - copy/paste works for me
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2019, 12:12:47 PM
We were back there looking for places to metal detect - getting old
dude, that's old
most roads are fine for sharing with cyclists
some are just plain dangerous
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 22, 2019, 02:37:16 PM
So we've got temps in the 40s in some places and temps reaching 100 elsewhere...when are we all supposed to be biking everywhere?  I don't want frozen hands or to show up sweating buckets, sorry.
And no, a 2-mile trip isn't quicker or as quick on a bike.  I'll drive there, do my business, and be halfway back home before you're halfway to the place on your bike.  


Bikes are great as the dominant transportation for 12 year olds, but that's about it.  
Suffice it to say, you are not the target audience for cycling infrastructure--and it is different depending on climate, infrastructure, etc. But, yeah, a 2-mile trip on a bike is often as fast as it is in a car because of parking and route choice. Always? No, but often? Yes.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 22, 2019, 03:12:39 PM
It would tend to be as fast in an urban setting, not where we lived in suburban Cincinnati, but would be here where we live now most of the time.

The traffic around us is not bad at all midday, say 10-3 PM.  That has surprised me.  The freeway is usually a disaster at that time anyway.  I'm pretty sure I could make better time driving south on Peachtree St. versus the Connector most work days.

(https://media.timesfreepress.com/img/photos/2015/04/10/screenshot20150410at72442am9643706185_t377_h280edf31651c526e8a3d4945a9e59c06e95d903e.jpg)(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/66/2b/48/662b485a4a171149c24dd34189527251.jpg)



Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2019, 06:54:28 PM
Elon Musk claims that Tesla will have "robotaxis" next year. 

Does anyone believe him?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2019, 07:17:41 PM
oh, he will have one next year

the question is:  Will it perform well enough to be widely deployed?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 22, 2019, 07:46:42 PM
oh, he will have one next year

the question is:  Will it perform well enough to be widely deployed?
The bigger question... Would you ride in one?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: FearlessF on April 22, 2019, 08:36:38 PM
I might try one once, just because I'm fearless
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 23, 2019, 12:53:49 AM
I'd try one, but I unfortunately don't have confidence that Tesla will survive long enough to really have a chance to win out on the autonomous driving race.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2019, 03:57:39 AM
Riding in the taxi isn't the fearsome part, being a pedestrian near one is.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 23, 2019, 12:41:15 PM
You can bet they will be safer than human drivers. Autonomous vehicles don't have blind spots, don't get distracted, and the chance of a true error is much, much smaller than human error. Can't wait for this change. (Yes, I'm a broken record.)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2019, 12:58:42 PM
You can bet they will be safer than human drivers. Autonomous vehicles don't have blind spots, don't get distracted, and the chance of a true error is much, much smaller than human error. Can't wait for this change. (Yes, I'm a broken record.)
I agree that when it happens, it will only happen if they're much safer than human drivers. I agree that it will happen.
It won't be Tesla, in 2020.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 23, 2019, 01:41:21 PM
I agree that when it happens, it will only happen if they're much safer than human drivers. I agree that it will happen.
It won't be Tesla, in 2020.
So, maybe Boeing then?
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on April 23, 2019, 01:47:29 PM
I agree that when it happens, it will only happen if they're much safer than human drivers. I agree that it will happen.
It won't be Tesla, in 2020.
Oh, they're much, MUCH safer than human drivers now.  They're like 80-85% safer today...but when they inevitably hurt or kill someone, there's no one to blame.  That's why they're not widespread right now - when a human screws up and kills someone, we can point our finger and hate them and sue them and put them in jail.  When a machine does it (far, FAR less often), we get to do none of that. 
Sad to say, but that's why they're not commonplace yet.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: rolltidefan on April 23, 2019, 02:04:03 PM
Just last week a buddy and I went out to some old farmsteads where he grew up at.Sadly almost all farms/fields/woods have been gobbled up by "Progress" :'(.Anyway we turned down this old country lane still there with a brooke running next to it.Still some old farms/homes on it.It was kind of winding with just slight embankments on both sides with woods.We did have a small jeep come by as we in his big Dodge Ram were leaving and that was a bit hairy with little room for maneuver.The worst that could have happened however is one vehicle slid into the ditch/culvert.Not like those roads set high in the Andes Mtns in Peru.I imagine back in the day it prolly happened more than few times though.Friend said when they were teenagers he stole away there with girlfriends.We were back there looking for places to metal detect - getting old
nah, you're just his latest girlfriend. :88:
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: SFBadger96 on April 23, 2019, 02:29:55 PM
Oh, they're much, MUCH safer than human drivers now.  They're like 80-85% safer today...but when they inevitably hurt or kill someone, there's no one to blame.  That's why they're not widespread right now - when a human screws up and kills someone, we can point our finger and hate them and sue them and put them in jail.  When a machine does it (far, FAR less often), we get to do none of that.
Sad to say, but that's why they're not commonplace yet.
I don't think you're far off. Waymo is ready now. I bet Tesla is, too. And I'm sure there are others. The hurdles are regulatory, not technology. And there are a lot of financial interests in stopping the advent of autonomous vehicles, so that's keeping the pace slower than it would otherwise be.
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2019, 02:59:47 PM
Oh, they're much, MUCH safer than human drivers now.  They're like 80-85% safer today...but when they inevitably hurt or kill someone, there's no one to blame.  That's why they're not widespread right now - when a human screws up and kills someone, we can point our finger and hate them and sue them and put them in jail.  When a machine does it (far, FAR less often), we get to do none of that.
Sad to say, but that's why they're not commonplace yet.
I don't necessarily buy that they're much safer today. I think you have to categorize where and when they're safer.
They're obviously better than humans at one critical thing--paying attention and not being distracted. An autonomous vehicle isn't going to get into a wreck because it was distracted by a pretty girl walking down the street. Or because it was texting.
I'd also say that they're probably better at certain predictable tasks--cruising on the interstate, for example. It's not going to get inattentive and drift out of the lane [assuming lane markings exist]. 
But where they're NOT yet safer is in handling unpredictable situations. You know, like when the car you're following moves out of the lane and your car doesn't recognize that there's a stopped fire truck in your way and just proceeds to slam into it. Maybe that's only 1% (or less) of what a driver does, but the human brain is much more adaptable than current self-driving vehicles. 
Until they get that 1% figured out, they're all just "driver assist" technologies. 
(FYI that's not nearly as true of Waymo from what I understand--but they also aren't claiming their system is a year away from commercial adoption like Tesla is.)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2019, 03:02:10 PM
I think until cars are able to communicate with each via telemetry, we won't have a truly autonomous system.  
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: utee94 on April 23, 2019, 03:02:31 PM
I love cars and automobile culture, but I'll welcome in the autonomous driving era with open arms-- especially an autonomous driving fleet for hire.  No worries about a designated driver, no worries about parking, the ability to get work done whilst on the way to work-- the benefits are tremendous.

And when they come up with autonomous ski boat fleets for hire, and autonomous RVs, then I'll never have to drive another vehicle again!
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Riffraft on April 23, 2019, 03:05:49 PM
You can bet they will be safer than human drivers. Autonomous vehicles don't have blind spots, don't get distracted, and the chance of a true error is much, much smaller than human error. Can't wait for this change. (Yes, I'm a broken record.)
happened here in Phoenix. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: Cincydawg on April 23, 2019, 03:08:18 PM
https://www.automobilemag.com/news/electric-vehicle-range-ev-cars-mileage-best-worst/?sm_id=organic_fb_AMAG_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5cbefe5f16ce3f000141dbc6&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR1dl3Uc_mo2fdnJPGqRwDkXgsSbx4oJura9-14iFlXIUvhuH95zo3BZT_U (https://www.automobilemag.com/news/electric-vehicle-range-ev-cars-mileage-best-worst/?sm_id=organic_fb_AMAG_trueanthem&utm_campaign&utm_content=5cbefe5f16ce3f000141dbc6&utm_medium&utm_source&fbclid=IwAR1dl3Uc_mo2fdnJPGqRwDkXgsSbx4oJura9-14iFlXIUvhuH95zo3BZT_U)
Title: Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on April 23, 2019, 03:29:26 PM
happened here in Phoenix. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html)
And that's the thing... As they say in the article, there was no indication that the car attempted to slow down. This one even had LIDAR (unlike Tesla)... Weather was clear and the roads were dry, so no issues there.
Truth is that none of these cars will be perfectly safe, due to the laws of physics. If a car is traveling 45 mph and a pedestrian walks in front of it, you can't stop that inertia imme