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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5096 on: August 17, 2021, 07:52:42 AM »
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U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5097 on: August 17, 2021, 07:59:32 AM »
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CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5098 on: August 17, 2021, 08:04:09 AM »
Solar variability was proposed as an alternative or additional factor over a decade ago.  Climate patterns for over 2000 years had been correlated with fluctuating solar output.

It seemed reasonable to me at the time.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5099 on: August 17, 2021, 08:51:32 AM »
The sun's impact has been discussed for decades.  The "Little Ice Age" was coincident with many fewer spots on the sun.  But the climate folks have apparently ruled it's influence out as a major factor.  I'm not sure why exactly, I read a bit on this possible influence a few years back and then it seemed it had been dismissed.

I had a notion we might have competing influences, cooling due to the sun and warming due to GHGs.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5100 on: August 17, 2021, 10:42:45 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2021, 07:52:42 AM
Discuss?

Connolly (raa-journal.org)

Very interesting stuff. Thanks for posting, Badge.

I'd like to get a look at the full 72-page paper. As this is a summary, I note a few things:

  • The graphs used are basically the endpoints. I.e. their "left" graph assumes almost 100% human causes of global warming by using a solar dataset that is least variable. At the same time, their "right" graph uses the most variable solar output graph, which would show the least impact of human causes. A non-careful reading would look at the right graph and say "Look! They just proved that humans cause barely any warming!" But that would not be true--the truth is probably somewhere in the middle between the two.
  • Their dataset on the "right" graph uses only rural temperature data. This is purported to remove the urban heat island effect, and may be 100% valid, but it can also be accused of cherry-picking the dataset which shows the lowest observed warming. 
  • There is a strawman on the climate "alarmist" side that the skeptic/"denier" side doesn't believe CO2 is a greenhouse gas causing ANY warming. That's not true of the skeptic side, and not true even of laymen except for morons. I would highlight that this paper is not in any way claiming that humans and CO2 aren't responsible for warming, it's trying to determine what portion of the warming is human-caused because that's the only portion we have any control over. If humans are responsible for 85%, we probably need to address it. If we're responsible for 15%, then most attempts to reduce CO2 output are pointless. 
  • This is 3 pages, trying to summarize a 72-page paper. I get the sense, like most abstracts, that this is meant to be the most controversial statement of the paper available to generate interest. I suspect that they took the most salacious bits from the paper. 

The full paper is available here if you want to slog through it all. I am going to give it a try, but it might not be for a few days.

http://www.raa-journal.org/raa/index.php/raa/article/view/4906/6081


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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5101 on: August 17, 2021, 10:45:15 AM »
When science collides with an item of public interest, the result often is less than desirable.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5102 on: August 17, 2021, 05:02:02 PM »
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5103 on: August 17, 2021, 05:11:49 PM »
fingers crossed
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5104 on: August 19, 2021, 06:04:18 AM »
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5105 on: August 19, 2021, 10:06:48 AM »
China?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5106 on: August 19, 2021, 11:22:48 AM »
China and India and other less developed countries are going to coal big time.  They often lack NG, so what else can they use?  Nuclear is too expensive.

Electrical power is THE critical thing for any advanced country, with it, you can do just about anything.
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GopherRock

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5107 on: August 19, 2021, 04:48:11 PM »
Oops, wrong thread
« Last Edit: August 19, 2021, 05:17:53 PM by GopherRock »
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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5108 on: August 19, 2021, 04:50:32 PM »
Quote from: GopherRock on August 19, 2021, 04:48:11 PM
David Montgomery at MPR seems confident that the current COVID wave has stalled out, and if not now, then this weekend. Just in time for the State Fair and school reopenings.


https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1428391673638313996?s=20

when I see the seven day moving average trend down then I will agree
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #5109 on: August 20, 2021, 10:12:22 AM »
The powerful greenhouse gases tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane have been building up in the atmosphere from unknown sources. Now, modelling suggests that China’s aluminium industry is a major culprit.

The gases are thousands of times more effective than carbon dioxide at warming the atmosphere. Official tallies of tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane emissions from factories are too low to account for the levels in the air, which began to rise in 2015 after seven years of relative stability.

Seeking to pinpoint the sources of those emissions, Jooil Kim at the University of California, San Diego, and his colleagues analysed air samples collected roughly every 2 hours between November 2007 and December 2019 on South Korea’s Jeju Island. The scientists also modelled the weather patterns that transported air across the island during that period, to track the gases’ origins.

The results suggest that aluminium smelters in China account for a large proportion of these chemicals in the atmosphere.


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02231-0
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