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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4774 on: May 02, 2021, 06:44:23 PM »
They always spend on pork.

MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4775 on: May 02, 2021, 07:29:40 PM »

Quote
This is a nice problem synopsis, but my point remains.  Just saying this would be bad and we HAVE to do something is, to me, just burfle.  What IS the something?  How much would it cost?  What would be the benefit?

I realize these are tough and uncomfortable questions, but they need to be addressed by someone at some point IF there is to be general support for any effort.
It's not that they are uncomfortable, just sort of too simplistic. What is "cost" in this circumstance? Dollars? How many dollars do we spend on carbon generating activities. If we limit those, are we spending money? If we cap or tax carbon emissions and it leads to say, new developments in fusion reactors, which drastically cut the need for fossil fuels - did we spend money, save money, lose money? There is no price tag on a policy such as this - it is more like dealing with COVID where we simply make tradeoffs and go for the least bad.


Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing. It is not at any sort of homeostasis and if this pattern continues it would seem to have very bad consequences. It's not burfle to admit this reality, nor is it burfle to suggest that focusing on things we can control is probably more effective and than focusing on results we can't control. 

But, as I've previously said, the state of US politics is such that no idea about it will go anywhere. Even relatively minor policy changes are a nonstarter, and I don't think it has anything to do with plans being too optimistic.

MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4776 on: May 02, 2021, 07:35:09 PM »
This makes no sense

Give one example of a solution to a problem that was achieved through a processed based approach and not a results based approach

science is the vary definition of results based approaches

yes CO2 is rising and you say 1000 ppm is feasible in 80 years but no mention of how to convince the other 85% of the world to take action
Science is (supposed to be) processed based. In that, you try to control every variable you can and then change one and then see what happens. It is not the opposite, where you hope for a predetermined result and then make experiments which show that result. 

As far as other countries, why would any other country listen to us when we aren't united in any way on the issue? A Republican president or legislature getting elected would end any sort of policy on the matter, and it is typically unwise to make some sort of agreement with a party that is likely to be broken (as any agreement with us would be).

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4777 on: May 02, 2021, 08:06:20 PM »
Science is (supposed to be) processed based. In that, you try to control every variable you can and then change one and then see what happens. It is not the opposite, where you hope for a predetermined result and then make experiments which show that result.

As far as other countries, why would any other country listen to us when we aren't united in any way on the issue? A Republican president or legislature getting elected would end any sort of policy on the matter, and it is typically unwise to make some sort of agreement with a party that is likely to be broken (as any agreement with us would be).
why is it up to the US

we have decreased carbon emissions by 5% over the last 10 years

why dont they see that and follow suit

They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4778 on: May 03, 2021, 12:05:02 PM »
why is it up to the US

we have decreased carbon emissions by 5% over the last 10 years

why dont they see that and follow suit
Quite a few other countries have done a lot:





This is per-capita BTW, so it is adjusted for population. Latest data only goes to 2016 that I can find in downloadable spreadsheet form to make graphs.

The EU between 1980 and now has had a larger percentage decline than the US. The US has more of a decline from 2006->2016... A good portion of that could be due to the Great Recession and homebuilding coming to a screeching halt... But our graph is somewhat similar to both the OECD (which includes us, of course) and the EU (which doesn't) regarding seeing a decent drop over the last decade. It's not like we're the ONLY country that has had a drop. 

On the country-by-country basis, it's a lot more noisy, but you can see that same trend over the last decade of the graph from pretty much all developed nations. Some more than others, but with the exception of China and India, the trends are downward. So again, it's not like other countries are not following suit.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4779 on: May 03, 2021, 12:18:02 PM »
Despite some major efforts and spending, you can see the progress by any European country has been relatively modest, certainly no major decline over a nine year period.

Russia did well.  Oops.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4780 on: May 03, 2021, 12:44:01 PM »
Despite some major efforts and spending, you can see the progress by any European country has been relatively modest, certainly no major decline over a nine year period.

Russia did well.  Oops.
True, but the Euro region also had a lot more declines over the prior period. The US was flat up until about 2006, whereas the Euro area was declining [albeit slowly] throughout that period. 

Not sure what to make of Russia. Was it the fall of communism or the breakup of the Soviet Union which pushed a lot of emission tracking to the former Bloc states? Either way, they haven't declined in any way since.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4781 on: May 03, 2021, 12:51:16 PM »
Russia also contracted geographically a lot, don't know if that is corrected.

But nobody otherwise has shown a marked drop in CO2 emissions to date.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4782 on: May 03, 2021, 01:00:38 PM »
and no one will the next couple years
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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4783 on: May 03, 2021, 01:17:36 PM »
China and India account for over 35% of carbon emissions

Its clear to me they have absolutely no intention of reducing carbon emissions 

If it is to be a successful global effort they will have to get on board
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4784 on: May 03, 2021, 01:20:14 PM »
Russia is also in the group of "absolutely no intention"
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4785 on: May 03, 2021, 01:21:12 PM »
But nobody otherwise has shown a marked drop in CO2 emissions to date.
But most have been showing steady per-capita reductions. 

Will it be enough? Probably not. Will it buy more time to get to what might be "enough" (i.e. some technological advance that really tips the scales the other way)? Also probably not, but every extra year of time is good here.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4786 on: May 03, 2021, 01:26:22 PM »
I have no problem with sensible goals to reduce CO2 emissions, emphasis on sensible.

We can look at what Germany has managed at considerable costs over the past nine years or so to see what is really practicable as a goal.  The US could do better because we generate more per capita now, but the cost to Germany has been high to achieve a moderate reduction, and it gets tougher for them as they close their nuclear plants.


Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4787 on: May 05, 2021, 08:42:07 AM »
Climate is everything | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com)

Noting how all of societal ills get blamed on climate change to suggest if we solve climate we solve everything else, in effect.


 

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