Warmer ocean temperatures should generate more and stronger hurricanes, but we don't know how many more and how much stronger, obviously. It could be the impact is say a tenth of a hurricane a year, which would not be noticeable. Slower moving hurricanes will drop more rain over a set area and cause problems of that ilk.
Global climate is enormously complex and my "basic take" is that it is far too complex to model with much certainty. And I think there is some chance that climate change turns out to be worse than the models project, as well as better. I also think we're going to run the experiment and find out. Thus far, the hard evidence for a warming climate is perhaps not as strong as one might think and could be viewed as natural variability. I don't think that is the case.
But, it is difficult to have much confidence in the models. And I hope they are wrong.
In bold: That's bulljive. We have been incredibly accurate modeling global warming. Remember, we aren't looking for perfection. There are always tweaks and new things to add/change, but at this point they are minute adjustments to very accurate and well defined models.
In Italics: It absolutely is, and we know it. Natural variability has been ruled out.
1. We know CO2 is a greenhouse gas. We know it retains heat, and we know about how much it retains. It's physics, and can be duplicated in a lab in closed environment.
2. We know that CO2 levels have risen dramatically since the industrial age, and we can use physics to determine how much more energy will be absorbed by the sun as a result.
3. We know this CO2 is from the burning of fossil fuels due to the unique carbon isotope found in fossil fuels.
4. We know that warmer air holds more water vapor, which itself is a greenhouse gas. We know that ice reflects the sun's energy, and as ice recedes the earth will absorb more heat. We know that as the tundra melts it releases methane, another greenhouse gas. We know that the rain forest is shrinking every year, and that is additional carbon released into the atmosphere. All of this is factored into our climate models, along with other factors. This means that all models will show some variability, but that isn't the point. The point is that ALL of them show continued significant warming due to the burning of fossil fuels.
5. You should absolutely have confidence in the models, since they all say the same thing, have been very accurate, and have actually slightly underestimated global warming.
The "natural variability" thing is absolutely ridiculous at this point, because science has been searching for this for years.
1. We are actually slowly heading into an ice age based upon our stage in the Milankovitch cycle. So global warming wouldn't fit with the typical causes of previous periods of warming and cooling. I can describe Milankovitch cycles in more detail if you'd like.
2. The sun's output has been at unusually low levels, and yet we still continue to warm.
Just like this 2 options above, every other theory for a "natural" global warming cycle has been systematically ruled out.
Man made climate change is real, it is predictable, and it is measurable.
