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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2408 on: May 11, 2020, 12:02:30 PM »
His website is simplified for the masses.

Hillary Clinton went into massive detail on her campaign website, and it totally backfired. 

For example, her plans for revitalizing West Virginia were incredibly detailed and specific.  Definitely not for the layman.  Trump came in and said he was going to bring coal back.  We know how that went.

I think Biden is trying to put his plan out there, but not have it mired boring and technical details.
Exactly. Jay Inslee had a great and specific strategy, too, and I suspect many of those plans will be adopted by Biden. Most people aren't energy wonks, though.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2409 on: May 11, 2020, 12:04:57 PM »
Lay out some kind of outline of a plan.

1.  What will be closed and replaced with what else.
2.  How much it will cost, and who will pay for it.
3.  The reduction in CO2 generated, and the impact on climate over time according to the models.

What I see everywhere is a bunch of pandering to the masses so as to PRETEND to be doing something serious.  I've seen PR, and this looks like PR to me.

Seriously, one of our two political parties pretty much actively:

A.  Denies climate change is a real thing
B.  Says it is natural and normal
C.  Says it is good for the earth and growing seasons
D.  Says that nothing can be done so we'll just have to live with it.

I'd be happy if both parties acknowledged there was a problem, invested in green energy and new technology to help solve the problem, and actively worked to mitigate current carbon outputs.

How much will it cost?  According to the insurance industry, global warming already costs Americans untold billions, and that number is accelerating.  Economists say that we are on the other end of the curve now.  It will cost us more to do nothing.

In a perfect world, we would close coal completely (that is happening fast anyway), and more towards renewable fuels.  (happening, but could be increased with government incentives)

Reductions in CO2 isn't going to happen unless we come up with efficient ways to capture carbon from the atmosphere.  We can, however, reduce the amount of CO2 that we continue to add.  For now, that will have to do.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2410 on: May 11, 2020, 12:09:31 PM »
Take it to China and India. Let me know their efforts.
You've mentioned this before, and I have.

They are exceeding their targets.  

The next wave of technology and industry will be green energy.  Unfortunately, this will be the first time since WWII that the United States is not in a position to take advantage of shifting global economics.

China, on the other hand, is on the forefront.

CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2411 on: May 11, 2020, 12:11:54 PM »
So, I'm still wondering when the "industrial era" began and what the average temperature was in the year before that.  Because that's supposed to be the baseline from which we are supposed to be trying not to exceed a 2-degrees Celcius increase.  If that year is 1759, we were in the Little Ice Age, with average temps about 1.5 degrees Celcius below historical norms.  Meaning that we have already blown through the 2-degrees target.

Apparently, the bottom of the Little Ice Age was about the time Jamestown was founded in 1607, with an estimated average global temp of 12.4 degrees C.  That partially explains why about 3/4 of the settlers who came to Jamestown in the 1st 3 years died.

We tend to frame the consequences of further warming in terms of what's good for the United States, or even what's good for the coastal cities of the United States.  Is it a given that sea-level rise is a bad thing for humanity (if humans are the prime consideration)?  I know it's a bad thing for coral and polar bears, but what about humans?  In a warmer climate, does the Sahara get rain, as it has in the geological past, or does it just turn into a bigger desert?  Do Canada's northern prairies and Siberia become agricultural breadbaskets, while Nawlins and Miami try to adapt to being Venice?
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2412 on: May 11, 2020, 12:16:24 PM »
the folks in Nawlins have moved out before.  It was inconvenient as hell, but it happened.  This time they won't be moving back.
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CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2413 on: May 11, 2020, 12:34:21 PM »
Seriously, one of our two political parties pretty much actively:

A.  Denies climate change is a real thing
B.  Says it is natural and normal
C.  Says it is good for the earth and growing seasons
D.  Says that nothing can be done so we'll just have to live with it.

I'd be happy if both parties acknowledged there was a problem, invested in green energy and new technology to help solve the problem, and actively worked to mitigate current carbon outputs.

How much will it cost?  According to the insurance industry, global warming already costs Americans untold billions, and that number is accelerating.  Economists say that we are on the other end of the curve now.  It will cost us more to do nothing.

In a perfect world, we would close coal completely (that is happening fast anyway), and more towards renewable fuels.  (happening, but could be increased with government incentives)

Reductions in CO2 isn't going to happen unless we come up with efficient ways to capture carbon from the atmosphere.  We can, however, reduce the amount of CO2 that we continue to add.  For now, that will have to do.
You've made some very solid points in this discussion, BBTS.
But . . . .
Neither party speaks with unanimity, so A through B are generalizations, albeit reasonable ones.  But neither party is the "party of science."  The same party that believes in climate science also believes that people will turn into angels if we just restructure society the right way.

So nobody's got the scientific high ground across the board.  Both parties invoke science when it supports their position, and both invoke wishful thinking at other times.

And there's this:
Quote
According to the insurance industry, global warming already costs Americans untold billions, and that number is accelerating.
If an estimate includes "untold" or "countless" in it, then it's not much good as an estimate.  And "untold" is not a number such that we could tell whether it is accelerating or not.
We had a story on TV news a few days ago.  A 2-year-old boy wandered off from his family's home out in the country.  A search (successful 26 hours later, thankfully) was launched.  The on-the-scene reporter told us about the "countless ponds in the area."  I just shook my head.  The number of ponds in the area might have been 10 or 20, or maybe 100, depending on how big the "area" was, but that number was not "countless."
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2414 on: May 11, 2020, 12:54:02 PM »
well, he hadn't counted the ponds and neither had anyone he trusted
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2415 on: May 11, 2020, 01:18:06 PM »
The same party that believes in climate science also believes that people will turn into angels if we just restructure society the right way.
Libertarians?  :)

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2416 on: May 11, 2020, 01:20:30 PM »

And there's this:If an estimate includes "untold" or "countless" in it, then it's not much good as an estimate.  And "untold" is not a number such that we could tell whether it is accelerating or not.
We had a story on TV news a few days ago.  A 2-year-old boy wandered off from his family's home out in the country.  A search (successful 26 hours later, thankfully) was launched.  The on-the-scene reporter told us about the "countless ponds in the area."  I just shook my head.  The number of ponds in the area might have been 10 or 20, or maybe 100, depending on how big the "area" was, but that number was not "countless."

There are specifics...
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/06/13/529201.htm

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2417 on: May 11, 2020, 01:22:18 PM »
So, I'm still wondering when the "industrial era" began and what the average temperature was in the year before that.  Because that's supposed to be the baseline from which we are supposed to be trying not to exceed a 2-degrees Celcius increase.  If that year is 1759, we were in the Little Ice Age, with average temps about 1.5 degrees Celcius below historical norms.  Meaning that we have already blown through the 2-degrees target.

Apparently, the bottom of the Little Ice Age was about the time Jamestown was founded in 1607, with an estimated average global temp of 12.4 degrees C.  That partially explains why about 3/4 of the settlers who came to Jamestown in the 1st 3 years died.

We tend to frame the consequences of further warming in terms of what's good for the United States, or even what's good for the coastal cities of the United States.  Is it a given that sea-level rise is a bad thing for humanity (if humans are the prime consideration)?  I know it's a bad thing for coral and polar bears, but what about humans?  In a warmer climate, does the Sahara get rain, as it has in the geological past, or does it just turn into a bigger desert?  Do Canada's northern prairies and Siberia become agricultural breadbaskets, while Nawlins and Miami try to adapt to being Venice?
Between 1840 and 1860

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=industrial+era
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=industrial+era Link

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2418 on: May 11, 2020, 02:21:33 PM »
I sincerely hope nobody believes that the CCP is producing renewable energy out of their concern for emissions - because they don't care. They are doing it for their own energy security - period. And they also have 4.5 times more people than we do, so, they produce a bit more renewable as a percentage, and they produce far more emissions. India and China have 35 percent of the world population.

Again, start there if you want to truly make a dent in emissions.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2419 on: May 11, 2020, 02:36:31 PM »
One irony in all this is that Europe decided to push Diesel cars circa 1990 to combat CO2 emissions, and as a result are incurring serious problems with regular air pollution now (NOx in particular) in cities.  Nearly every car is Diesel, and the 50 cc 2 stroke scooters are a problem of course.

I saw somewhere that CO2 emissions are off 8% due to COVID and we'd need to replicate that every tear for ten years to meet Paris targets, which as noted above, are not sufficient.  Even the most optimistic rosey future scenario not based on wishful thinking shows "we" are not doing nearly enough.

If nobody can do some kind of cost:benefit analysis on the issue, well, that should tell us something.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2420 on: May 11, 2020, 03:01:11 PM »
https://www.dw.com/en/german-greenhouse-gas-emissions-fall-for-first-time-in-four-years/a-48167150

German greenhouse gas emissions fall for first time in four years

Though renewables played a role in the 4.2 percent drop it has largely been attributed to warm weather. Despite this good news the country is certain to miss its 2020 target of reducing emissions by 40 percent over 1990.

Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced global figures for 2018, documenting an overall global increase of 1.7 percent in carbon emissions. That number represented a historic high of 33 billion tons of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. Although emissions fell in Germany, France and Britain, they rose by 2.5 percent in China and 3.1 percent in the USA.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2421 on: May 11, 2020, 03:03:37 PM »
A decade ago, Germany's plan to move to renewable energy positioned the country as a pioneer in the fight against climate change. But its climate protection efforts have stalled, and Germany is still a major contributor to global CO2 emissions.
Read more: COP 25: When it comes to climate protection, Germany still has a lot to do 
Fossil fuels make up 80% of Germany's primary energy consumption, according to government data. Some 22% of that comes from coal. The country relies on black coal and lignite to maintain a steady energy supply alongside fluctuating renewables.



 

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