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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1050 on: April 17, 2019, 01:52:30 PM »
People do work from home, but you wouldn't know it trying to drive anywhere around here.  The metro area adds nearly 100,000 people a year, most are going further and further out.  The city has been growing over the past 20 years or so after the usual declines.  But the metro area population is more than 10x the Atlanta city population.  Sprawl.

I wish we at least had a subway out to the baseball field, it's in a terrible traffic area, brilliant.
Heh. Chicago doesn't have a population growth problem (according to census data, at least). More people are leaving every year. I'm sure that has something to do with ridership too. 
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1051 on: April 17, 2019, 01:58:47 PM »
I'd also point out that for many of the same reasons that HSR fails [high fixed costs / fixed route / fixed endpoints / etc], light rail is a bad idea. 

But since HSR is SUCH a large expense, people don't throw down the money on it. Light rail, at a much more local expense, is the darling of urban hipsters everywhere.

Buses, however, are a much superior solution. Light rail is costly and assumes that the central planners know exactly where the people are, and where they want to go. Once built, it's stuck on that route. Buses are flexible, and bus routes can be reconfigured easily to respond to where the people ACTUALLY are and where they ACTUALLY want to go. 

Of course, it wouldn't matter which is superior if they were independent. But they're not. A pattern crops up every time light rail is built. It displaces bus routes, while actually adding no new net ridership or in many cases, reducing net ridership. Because light rail costs a bunch of money, and the ridership doesn't cover the costs, it invariably has unrealistically low fares to subsidize ridership.

Why is this the case? Very simple. Because poor people ride buses and rich urban hipsters wouldn't be caught dead on one. 

So light rail actually takes mass transit away from the people who need it in order to give it to the people who don't. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1052 on: April 17, 2019, 02:10:25 PM »
All of the above plus lower maintenance costs, which will decrease the costs of rides from whoever survives between Uber/Lyft/Waymo/etc.
Still, I think autonomous driving is decoupled from EV. We could just as easily go autonomous with ICE engines as EV. The lower maintenance costs of EV only play a factor in comparison to ICE--if EV doesn't take over as quickly as projected, then EV isn't necessarily "better" for autonomous ride-hailing. 
Perhaps this could occur due to scale-up costs of increasing battery production capacity for a huge portion of the automotive fleet. I.e. I see the same thing in the HDD/SSD market. People talk about how wonderful SSDs are--and they're exactly that wonderful. But then they predict that HDDs are going the way of the dinosaur, and they're not. SSDs require NAND, and to build out the NAND fabrication facilities to meet exabyte demand would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, while flooding the market with NAND and dropping costs through the floor. Every NAND producer would lose their shirts if they did it. 
So I don't think it should just be assumed EV takes over. It might be the case, but I think if autonomous ride-hailing is ready before the market can supply EV, there's no reason they need to be coupled. 

utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1053 on: April 17, 2019, 02:19:54 PM »
So, no 440V then?
440... 441... whatever it takes.

MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1054 on: April 17, 2019, 02:35:33 PM »
The movements toward electrification and automation aren't interdependent, but they're not completely independent, either. All of the auto companies realize that EVs are going to win out eventually and that autonomous vehicles will make individual car ownership largely obsolete. How that all plays out is a big question but how it ends is pretty much understood.

As for mass transit, with automation, I agree that buses will prove to be the better solution. I've used buses in subways when I've lived in Philadelphia, Chicago, and DC. The problem with buses is they still have to deal with traffic, stop signs, stop lights, construction, etc. Subways are much more reliable for the most part, and they're scheduled more frequently, but I agree that expanding existing transit infrastructure is not going to happen for the most part (the only project in the DC metro is to finish building a line that goes to Dulles Airport), nor should it.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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SFBadger96

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1055 on: April 17, 2019, 02:59:52 PM »
Wow--I'm surprised at how down on rail you guys are.

My metropolitan area would be a disaster without rail. Buses are great for short trips, but bad for long ones. Rail is an extremely efficient way to connect high density areas that are further apart than buses can reasonably serve. As much money as we pour into infrastructure for cars, a little more investment in rail would be a great idea, particularly as we continue to urbanize as a country.

HSR is only viable within certain distances--the idea of a nationwide network is crazy. But an HSR in California connecting the population centers, or connecting the major population centers in the midwest and on the eastern seaboard (and a handful of other places) makes a ton of sense. The bureaucratic issues (and associated costs) with building one are the biggest problems. I've done my share of traveling to and from SoCal from the Bay Area. I live really close to SFO and it's still a five hour experience to get from my house to downtown LA. If I could make that on HSR in even the same amount of time (and it would be substantially less), in a much more comfortable, better serviced environment (train travel is way more amenable to working than plane travel), I would happily pay what I pay for air travel.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1056 on: April 17, 2019, 03:03:31 PM »
The movements toward electrification and automation aren't interdependent, but they're not completely independent, either. All of the auto companies realize that EVs are going to win out eventually and that autonomous vehicles will make individual car ownership largely obsolete. How that all plays out is a big question but how it ends is pretty much understood.
Well, I'm not sure that BEV is going to win out. I was just reading today that China is now betting on fuel cells. But they want 1M fuel cell cars on the road by 2030, so that's clearly a long-term goal. 
I think there's a significant issue trying to scale up battery production for BEV. Right now the cost of a BEV is heavily due to a battery, which is why Toyota is pushing hybrids so much more strongly than BEV. It allows them to achieve higher efficiency without having to have enough battery capacity to achieve range. 
That was my point with SSD vs HDD. It doesn't matter if BEV is technically superior to ICE if you can't produce enough batteries--at the cost necessary to get adoption--to achieve scale. Do we have enough mines worldwide to get the metals for these batteries? How much would it cost to expand mining? Do we have enough mining companies to supply that many metals, or do the mining companies need to expand? If the mining companies expand and flood the market with metals, can they sell them for a high enough price for the mining companies to cover costs? 
These are incredibly difficult questions, and currently BEV is a tiny portion of the worldwide automotive market. How long it takes to get to scale--if it's possible at all--is not a question we can ignore. 

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As for mass transit, with automation, I agree that buses will prove to be the better solution. I've used buses in subways when I've lived in Philadelphia, Chicago, and DC. The problem with buses is they still have to deal with traffic, stop signs, stop lights, construction, etc. Subways are much more reliable for the most part, and they're scheduled more frequently, but I agree that expanding existing transit infrastructure is not going to happen for the most part (the only project in the DC metro is to finish building a line that goes to Dulles Airport), nor should it.
Subways make sense, but they require insane population density to be economic. So they're only viable within large dense cities. Which also makes sense, because that's the only place where you can justify tunneling under everything. 
So if you're comparing buses vs subways, it's a much different comparison to buses vs light rail. 
FYI when I lived in San Jose, my employer paid for light rail as their HQ was right next to a station. They were on the north side of San Jose, and I lived on the south side of San Jose, also right near a station. Driving in rush hour traffic (incl. carpool lanes) would take an hour. The light rail would take an hour [regardless of traffic] due to the many stops. A bus would probably have taken longer as there might be route changes in there, but then if my house and my employer weren't *right* on the route, I'd have to use a bus to get to/from the terminal station anyway. 
The main advantage of light rail to car was that you could sit there and do email, check your phone, read a book, etc, rather than concentrating on driving. But if I had to pay a couple hundred dollars a month for a monthly pass (which is what I believe they were at the time), I probably wouldn't have done it. 

Riffraft

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1057 on: April 17, 2019, 03:18:39 PM »
All I know is that our transportation infrastructure is embarrassing, considering the possibilities.  Whether they're tracks or electromagnetics or whatever, it needs to happen.  The existing infrastructure of railroads laid 100+ years ago and the highway system laid 50+ years ago is unacceptable.

I've always found it odd that there's no major in-between:  either drive and maintain a vehicle yourself, on roads, at about 60 mph OR trust the expertise of others, 7 miles up, going 600 mph.  How are there not 10 viable options between these two choices?!?!?!




Think of what we could do with one year's worth of the defense budget pointed towards transportation infrastructure overhaul.....the future would be now.  
The problem is people are generally content with how things are. They don't want to pay for it. We have light rail in Phoenix, which was and is a total waste of money. While there is enough population for it, the actually density of the population will not support it. And thus it is rarely used and don't nothing to help the traffic congestion and in fact made it worse in the areas that it runs through. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1058 on: April 17, 2019, 03:33:18 PM »
Grade separated express bus ways can be an option.  The folks in traffic would see buses flying by unimpeded, delivering patrons to wherever, perhaps a subway stop.  When the bus gets to a congested area it can use normal streets for a few blocks.  

MARTA was built here in the 1980s.  The "good news" is that the areas surrounding many of the stations are exploding with development.  It's a big selling point.  The bad news is there are no plans for extensions of hard rail, everything planned is light rail or bus ways or street cars.  I'm not a far of street cars.  Buses are better, more flexible.

The state spent a huge sum on express lanes for I-75 outside the loop, toll lanes.  They are going to spend $1.8 billion more on express lanes, and some bus ways, for the north freeway (which is a disaster).  Those monies can't be spent on rail anything by law.

We were headed to Costco today to get gas and the wife stopped of the the tile shop, and then I noticed they had Peachtree closed for some reason, and I had to divert to another Costco out near Marietta, the traffic at 1 PM was ridiculous.  I would never live here if I had to face that daily.  I-285 is 6 lanes each way and was packed, but at least it was moving.


MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1059 on: April 17, 2019, 03:33:59 PM »
Battery costs aren't going to be the issue for much longer. The demand is already so high and growing so fast that economies of scale continue to bring down the costs, and recycling them as they degrade will be cost-effective, too. The main question is if/when better chemistries / battery technologies will become cost-effective compared to Lithium Ion.

Fuel cells may win out for trucks, other freight vehicles, and eventually even cargo ships and potentially planes, but I just don't see how it will happen for passenger vehicles. Hydrogen will have its uses, but it requires a lot of new infrastructure to be built out.

When I say subways I'm including above-ground lines, too (like most of Chicago's except parts of the red and blue lines).

To be sure, I'm not against trains for intercity transportation or maintaining existing regional rail infrastructure. I just don't think investing in new rail infrastructure is feasible at this point.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1060 on: April 17, 2019, 03:46:44 PM »
Wow--I'm surprised at how down on rail you guys are.

My metropolitan area would be a disaster without rail. Buses are great for short trips, but bad for long ones. Rail is an extremely efficient way to connect high density areas that are further apart than buses can reasonably serve. As much money as we pour into infrastructure for cars, a little more investment in rail would be a great idea, particularly as we continue to urbanize as a country.
Having spent a lot of time in SJ/SF, I agree that it's quite useful there. SF is so expensive that it's nearly impossible to live in the city unless you're rich, and it's so space-constrained that it's almost impossible to justify a car day-to-day. And because it's so centralized, having BART to get right into the heart of downtown is nice--particularly because BART goes to SFO. For people coming into the city that know they won't need a rental car, BART gets them from the airport to downtown in ~25 minutes IIRC. 
Light rail in San Jose and on the Peninsula? Much less useful. Outside of SF, there's a lot more sprawl, where it's unlikely that you not only live close enough to a light rail station and your destination is close enough to a light rail station to justify the additional time and cost of taking light rail. For travelers, if you're there on business, there's no connection from SJC to light rail, so if you wanted to get to a light rail station you'd need to Uber/taxi to the light rail. At which point you might as well either rent a car or just Uber from destination to destination. 

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HSR is only viable within certain distances--the idea of a nationwide network is crazy. But an HSR in California connecting the population centers, or connecting the major population centers in the midwest and on the eastern seaboard (and a handful of other places) makes a ton of sense. The bureaucratic issues (and associated costs) with building one are the biggest problems. I've done my share of traveling to and from SoCal from the Bay Area. I live really close to SFO and it's still a five hour experience to get from my house to downtown LA. If I could make that on HSR in even the same amount of time (and it would be substantially less), in a much more comfortable, better serviced environment (train travel is way more amenable to working than plane travel), I would happily pay what I pay for air travel.
Question: what brings you to downtown LA, and do you think your experience is typical? If you live close to SFO, it should be no more than a 2 1/2 hour trip to get you to LAX. It's the getting from LAX to downtown LA that's the hard part. 
I will highlight that if you're trying to get to downtown LA from LAX, it's terrible. Unlike SFO to downtown SF, there is NO mass transit connecting the two. I think that would be an excellent use of mass transit, but right now you have to take a bus from LAX to the Green Line, tranfer to the Blue Line, and then transfer to the Red Line if you want to get to Union Station. That would be a pain in the ass, and take at least an hour plus. 
But I can't imagine why anyone needs to get to downtown LA?
Part of it for me is living in Orange County and absolutely hating to drive into downtown LA, but outside of sporting events, concerts, etc, I can't imagine many reasons to go to downtown LA. And HSR would take you to Union Station. LA also has so much sprawl that you'd find yourself having difficult public transit here anyway, or taking Ubers/taxis everywhere.
Generally business travelers are going to need the freedom of a rental car and can shoulder or expense the cost, and probably aren't going straight to downtown LA anyway because business in LA is all over the place. Which means that getting to LAX (or Burbank, or Ontario, or Long Beach, or John Wayne--we do have 5 major airports here) is probably just as functional as getting to Union Station downtown. If it's about vacationers, I highly doubt that enough vacationers are going to be riding HSR to create enough ridership to make any sense. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1061 on: April 17, 2019, 03:50:57 PM »
The state spent a huge sum on express lanes for I-75 outside the loop, toll lanes.  They are going to spend $1.8 billion more on express lanes, and some bus ways, for the north freeway (which is a disaster).  Those monies can't be spent on rail anything by law.

We were headed to Costco today to get gas and the wife stopped of the the tile shop, and then I noticed they had Peachtree closed for some reason, and I had to divert to another Costco out near Marietta, the traffic at 1 PM was ridiculous.  I would never live here if I had to face that daily.  I-285 is 6 lanes each way and was packed, but at least it was moving.
IMHO Atlanta's problem is similar to Seattle's. It wasn't some steady growth that allowed them to slowly increase highway capacity in line with population growth. It was stable population and then BOOM it exploded. For Seattle it was Microsoft and Amazon, and then it became a tech center.
As much as we complain about SoCal traffic, we have an extremely robust freeway system here. Atlanta doesn't. They have far fewer people than we do in SoCal, but they have far too many for the infrastructure they've built out. And more are coming every day.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1062 on: April 17, 2019, 04:02:38 PM »
Atlanta's growth has been pretty steady since the 1960s.  I don't think there was some point where it really took off after that point.

1900419,375
1910522,44224.6%
1920622,28319.1%
1930715,39115.0%
1940820,57914.7%
1950997,66621.6%
19601,312,47431.6%
19701,763,62634.4%
19802,233,32426.6%
19902,959,95032.5%
20004,112,19838.9%
20105,268,86028.1%
Est. 20175,884,73611.7%

The area has no geographic barriers, so folks can move further and further out.  



betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1063 on: April 17, 2019, 04:13:06 PM »
Battery costs aren't going to be the issue for much longer. The demand is already so high and growing so fast that economies of scale continue to bring down the costs, and recycling them as they degrade will be cost-effective, too. The main question is if/when better chemistries / battery technologies will become cost-effective compared to Lithium Ion.
You might be right. I'm asking questions because I'm not an expert on lithium mining. 
Just pointing out that with ANY resource, mining companies are going to look at expected demand that can be satisfied based on price to extract it from the ground. If they believe they will be overproducing and cause prices to drop too quickly, they'll hold off investment or they'll get into trouble. 
If demand is growing faster than supply, that acts as a significant brake on price reduction. Again talking SSDs because it's my field, demand is growing very fast. But as the production switched over from 2D to 3D NAND, demand overtook supply and the entire industry was in allocation and making a lot of money. Then it swapped, and right now were in an oversupply and prices are low. It seems like it's coming back into balance slowly, from what I read.
Batteries (and the metals needed to sustain them) aren't going to be different, because you can't just wish extra lithium into existence. Much like oil, as technology improves, we get more efficient at extracting resources. But we can't just assume that the mining industry can and will be able to continuously decrease production costs on a nice curve while satisfying the insatiable demand necessary to electrify the world's fleet of automobiles. 

 

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