I've added the one loss list this week.
Teams with 1st Loss Week 5:
Virginia Tech
Iowa
Mississippi State
Florida
Massachusetts
South Florida
Cincinnati
Teams with 1st Win Week 5:
Bowling Green
Percent with 1st Loss:
Week 0/1: 38.4% (53 of 138)
Week 2: 38.8% (33 of 85)
Week 3: 32.7% (17 of 52)
Week 4: 37.1% (13 of 35)
Week 5: 31.8% (7 of 22)
Maximum Number of Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season: 7
-I went through the schedules and figured it out for myself this week. There are no longer any possible scenarios that I see where an undefeated team is left out of the conference championship game. The Big Ten took a bit to look through, but 2 of the three undefeated teams play and the rest of the conference undefeated teams would have to play UCLA and/or the Indiana/Nebraska winner.
This week we lost the potential for undefeated teams from the American and MAC. This now officially leaves our last possible undefeateds as the champ of each conference except Conference USA, the PAC-12, American, and MAC plus a possible undefeated Notre Dame.
Team 5 Thoughts:
-I added the one loss list this week. Every power 4 conference team to end on that list at the end of the season has made the playoff in its current format (with most getting byes or hosting). The stronger Group 5 (now 6) conferences are also usually in a good place if they end up with a team on that list. I think the small chance the MAC and Conference USA have to be represented in the playoff are the two teams on that list (Toledo and Liberty). Toledo would do well to have San Diego State win the PAC-12.
-We saw Bowling Green get its first win with a win over Miami (OH). Every team in the MAC now has a win. Only three winless teams remain.
-This week showed some things across the country. In the Big Ten, Michigan and Penn State lost back to back weeks showing the previous week wasn't a fluke. The two powers down does hurt the Big Ten playoff chances some. Ohio State bounced back with a good win over a ranked Iowa. Northwestern also rose their stock with a huge win over Penn State a week after playing Indiana extremely close. USC stays on the 1 loss list by beating Washington, and Minnesota has the Little Brown Jug.
-A week after beating Ole Miss, Florida lost to Mizzou by a fairly lopsided score. Both remain in the playoff race with a single loss, but the losses are starting to eat at what is looking at the 2nd tier this year in the SEC. At the top, Alabama seems to be almost its old self for the moment with a huge road win at Mississippi State while Georgia keeps rolling, and Texas was off. Beyond those three, the conference now has 7 one loss teams. Getting 5+ in the playoff (likely the goal) will probably mean keeping as many as possible without too many losses. At least one is almost certain to emerge, but the conference would really like more. The question of who is wide open still.
-In a battle of unbeatens, Pitt beat Virginia Tech on Friday (after a missed last second field goal) which leaves them unbeaten and now ranked. This leaves them, Duke, and Miami as undefeated in the conference. Both Pitt and Duke will play Miami before the end of the season. The conference has a strong contender for a high playoff spot in Miami (winning big at Clemson this week), but probably has the hardest time at getting two in this year of the power conferences. That can change slowly though if someone else keeps winning and rising up the ranking. Right now, SMU is the 2nd favorite in the conference. One other note, Miami does play Notre Dame later this season.
-Previously unbeaten Cincinnati did lose to Arizona badly, but the ranked Big 12 teams all won. The two unbeatens who played (Utah was off) both won on the road (at TCU and Colorado). The Big 12's best scenarios are to have Utah, BYU, and Texas Tech win against everyone except each other (Houston could replace Utah though with a similar effect). I lean slightly to the Big 12 getting two bids for the first time this year, but it needs a strong conference runner-up.
-Group of 6 Playoff Race
The American saw South Florida lose a close one to Temple. Tulsa also suffered their 2nd loss against North Texas. The former was undefeated and the latter had a win over Oklahoma State a week before Oklahoma State beat Oregon. The American has taken the NY6/playoff spot more than any other conference and its chances remain real, but too much parity is a real risk in the conference. I think a two loss team could emerge strong enough in the right circumstances, but that's asking for help I'm not sure they'll get this year. I think they need to have one of their remaining 4 one loss team win to likely stay in it. Right now, UTSA, Memphis, and 2-loss North Texas have the best odds in the conference.
The MAC saw UMass, their last unbeaten, get destroyed. The MAC and Conference USA have a single 1-loss team left. I think Toledo really needs San Diego State to emerge on top of the PAC-12 and Liberty needs James Madison to lose some and, even then, both likely need a lot more help. Still, those are probably the two conferences' best odds.
The PAC-12, Sun Belt, and Mountain West all have a single large favorite in Boise State, James Madison, and North Dakota State. There are other scenarios for teams in those three conferences we will get to later, but each one of their best chance is almost certainly to have those three keep winning.
Week 6 Thoughts:
-We have two games between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Georgia at Undefeated Alabama: Georgia has had the best odds to win the conference all season and has looked the part. Alabama has seemed almost like it's old self. Winner of this is likely favorite to win the SEC and toward very top of national title contenders. Alabama is a very small favorite.
Undefeated Indiana at Undefeated Nebraska: Indiana is a 7 point road favorite, but the old western part of the Big Ten has had a strong season so far. Nebraska immediately jumps up the Big Ten and playoff pecking order with a win.
1-loss South Florida at 1-loss UTSA (Thursday): This is two of the 1-loss teams in the American battling it out including the current favorite to win the conference UTSA. Whomever wins this, the American wants to keep winning. UTSA is a 7 point favorite.
1-loss Iowa at Washington (Friday): Both teams a bit disappointed after last week losses, but a lot to play for. Iowa still is a dark horse playoff contender if they win here. They are 3 point favorites.
Iowa State at undefeated BYU (Friday): BYU is one of the three big favorites to win the Big 12. The conference would prefer them to keep winning.
Texas A&M at 1-loss Missouri: Ole Miss beat LSU and followed it up by losing to Florida. Florida followed that win up with a loss to Mizzou. Can Missouri break the cycle and win the next week? The Aggies have had a rough start, but barely are a field goal underdog here.
North Carolina at 1-loss Pitt: Pitt is now the 3rd ranked team in the ACC. They are a 3.5 point road favorite. The ACC would like some other teams to start jumping up the ranking.
Undefeated Texas vs. Oklahoma: The Red River Shootout. Texas enters the rivalry game undefeated and a 7.5 point favorite. Oklahoma is good enough to win this. The SEC would prefer Texas to keep winning.
1-loss LSU at 1-loss Kentucky: LSU is a little disappointed to have one loss here. Kentucky is ecstatic to be here with 1-loss. Should Kentucky win, the season will appear a major disappointment for LSU and success for Kentucky, but LSU is a 8.5 point favorite.
Undefeated North Dakota State at UNLV: North Dakota State is the Mountain West's best odds at the playoff, but they are only a 3 point favorite this week. The conference odds of getting in go down a lot if North Dakota State losses this.
1-loss USC at Penn State: This game seemed bigger a few weeks ago. That said, USC is still ranked and in the Big Ten race. Penn State is the favorite here and could really use a win.
Air Force at winless Northern Illinois: Northern Illinois has not had a good transition year into the Mountain West. They are about a touchdown underdog playing Air Force looking for their first win.
Undefeated James Madison at Georgia Southern: The favorite to win the Sun Belt is a 7.5 point road favorite.
1-loss Boise State at 1-loss Fresno State: The PAC-12's last two 1-loss teams. The winner stands the best spot of someone from the conference taking the playoff spot. Boise State is a 6.5 point favorite and will have an easier time of it.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 3, American: 0, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 3, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 15
Duke
Miami (FL)
Nebraska
Texas
Texas Tech
Pittsburgh
Indiana
Brigham Young
Utah
UCLA
Georgia
Alabama
Notre Dame
James Madison
North Dakota State
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 4, Big 12: 6, Big Ten: 7, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 7, Sun Belt: 2, total: 35
Southern Methodist
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Florida Atlantic
Memphis
UTSA
South Florida
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Houston
Cincinnati
Kansas State
Minnesota
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Oregon
Southern California
Iowa
Northwestern
Liberty
Toledo
New Mexico
Air Force
Boise State
Fresno State
Florida
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Mississippi
Louisiana State
Missouri
Tennessee
Georgia State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Remaining Winless Teams: American: 1, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 3
Charlotte
Northern Illinois
Louisiana-Monroe
