I'll probably add the 1-loss list next week. If not, it will be within a few weeks.
Teams with 1st Loss Week 4:
Northwestern
Tennessee
Mississippi
Southern California
Penn State
Michigan
Missouri
Vanderbilt
Kansas State
West Virginia
Appalachian State
Tulsa
Washington
Teams with 1st Win Week 4:
Rutgers
Western Kentucky
Utah State
Percent with 1st Loss:
Week 0/1: 38.4% (53 of 138)
Week 2: 38.8% (33 of 85)
Week 3: 32.7% (17 of 52)
Week 4: 37.1% (13 of 35)
Maximium Number of Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season: (7) 9
-Crayton on the CSNBBS forums (I post this at my two long time boards the CSNBBS realignment board and the CFB51 Big Ten board), put the rest of the season in a simulator 10,000 times and sees possibilities for an undefeated team missing the conference championship game (and thus two undefeated teams from one conference) in the Big Ten and SEC. That leaves a potential max of 9 undefeated teams at the end of the regular season. If we instead go by my earlier assumption of no more than one team per conference going undefeated, the number would remain at 7 (the champ of each conference except Conference USA and the PAC-12 plus Notre Dame).
Team 4 Thoughts:
-Three winless teams won this week. We lost our last winless from a Power 4 conference with Rutger's win over Howard. Meanwhile Utah State and Western Kentucky winning eliminated the last winless teams from the PAC-12 and Conference USA. Honorable mention goes out to Bowling Green who remains winless, but almost won and gave South Florida (the American's last undefeated team) a loss.
-The Big Ten started the weekend with Northwestern giving Indiana a real scare, saw Oregon give USC their first loss, and saw Michigan and Penn State suffer their first defeats with both losing at home to Iowa and Wisconsin respectfully. Combined with Minnesota also beating Washington and Nebraska beating Michigan State, the old west in the Big Ten has had a strong start. For the conference as a whole, the results are less than ideal so far. Michigan and Penn State are looking like they are having transition years while Oregon and Ohio State both already have a loss. UCLA improving combined with the old Big Ten west are positives, but don't yet make up for struggles. That said, the position of the conference is still far from bad.
-Texas won on the road against Tennessee, while Florida took down Ole Miss a week after Ole Miss beat LSU. Florida jumps up to 4th favorite to win the conference with that (behind Georgia, Texas, and Alabama). Texas A&M lost in back to back to weeks leaving the Aggies close to out of the playoff race before October. Early on, the SEC looks like it is in a good place to get 4-5 teams in the playoff.
-The big surprise in the ACC was Louisville, who was 2nd favorite to win the conference, losing at home to Wake Forest. They are still the 3rd favorite. This leaves just Miami (very highly ranked one of favorites to win the national title) and SMU ranked. To get a 2nd team in, the ACC likely needs a 1 loss team prior to the conference championship game which is complicated by Louisville having two losses already. They are likely better off if one of the currently undefeated or SMU do well the rest of the way than if Louisville recovers from this loss. That said, SMU has one loss itself and still has Notre Dame on the schedule.
-The ranked teams that played all won in the Big 12 with Utah's win at Iowa State being the most impressive. Meanwhile Oklahoma State gave West Virginia their first loss (Oklahoma State would really like their week 1game vs. Tulsa back now) and in a battle of unbeatens, Cincinnati beat Kansas State to start the season 4-0 (one of the 4 undefeated teams in the conference). The current odds in the conference give Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU the best chances by a decent bit and all are currently undefeated. To me, this puts the Big 12 in a better early position for 2 bids than the ACC, but that of course can change. In contrast, the ACC has the clearer team to go into the playoff with the highest expectations.
Group of 6 Playoff Chase:
-Boise State beat Western Michigan. The Broncos are now the most likely team from a Group of 6 conference to go to the playoff by the betting odds and are highly likely to take the spot if they win out. On the other side of that, with Western Michigan losing, I think the MAC's only remaining half decent chance is UMass. They remain unbeaten and likely will need to finish that way to get in.
-We have 4 undefeated teams left in Group of 6 conferences. I think Conference USA is likely out of the playoff race unless one team pulls off a massive surprise out of conference (they are down to just one team with even just one loss right now in Liberty) and the MAC is likely down to just UMass as as serious competitor as already mentioned. The Sun Belt's best chance is if James Madison goes unbeaten, but I would lean against them beating out a 1-loss Boise State or 1-loss American champion (for now though, they do have the 2nd best odds of any one team). North Dakota State continues to roll in their first year in FBS and are definitely the Mountain West's best chance (and have 3rd best overall odds to make playoff). The race for the American is pretty open and I do believe whomever emerges as the top of the conference will jump way up the list if they keep their loss total down. The key for the conference is to not let there be too much parity. A 1-loss champ will be very competitive for the spot and a 2-loss can take with some upsets, but right now the current slight favorite to win the conference (UTSA, with South Florida and Memphis not far behind) has worse odds to win the conference than any other conference's favorite.
Week 5 Thoughts:
-We only have 2 games between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Alabama at Undefeated Mississippi State: Both teams have started strong and the game is important even if the winner doesn't take the SEC. Keep the losses down and the playoff is a good possibility. This is especially huge for Mississippi State. Alabama is a 6 point favorite.
Undefeated Pitt at Undefeated Virginia Tech (Friday): The ACC has 4 unbeatens left and this game involves two of them. The winner will start to get serious consideration for being toward the top of the conference, which also starts to put them in the playoff picture. Virginia Tech is a 3.5 point favorite.
1-loss Liberty at Delaware (Friday): Liberty is the last one loss team from Conference USA. I don't think they'll make the playoff regardless, but if Conference USA is going to do it again, Liberty winning out is probably their best bet.
1-loss Penn State at 1-loss Northwestern (Friday): Northwestern gave Indiana a game last week. Penn State is coming off a surprise loss. A win might push Northwestern up a ring. If Penn State wins, it still is possible to recover from the Wisconsin loss. Penn State is a small favorite.
1-loss UCF at 1-loss Houston: Houston lost a close one to Texas Tech, but still has the 3rd best odds to win the conference. Lose and their chances at the Big 12 drop a ton and any playoff at large disappear.
Boston College at 1-loss SMU: The ACC could really use their 2nd highest rated team to blow away Boston College here.
1-loss Michigan at 1-loss Minnesota: I always enjoy the Little Brown Jug. Minnesota is coming off a surprise west coast win over Washington and Michigan off a defeat to Iowa. The old western part of the Big Ten will look especially strong if Minnesota pulls this off. Michigan meanwhile, really wants to right the ship. If they do, they still have the talent to make it far.
Navy at 1-loss Air Force: Beyond the Commander and Chief Trophy implications, this game is also an American vs. Mountain West game. It might help the winning conference a little in the end.
1-loss Ohio State at Undefeated Iowa: Iowa just defeated Michigan on the road. Ohio State is currently the favorite to win the national title, but a loss would start to put them in danger of even making it to the playoff (2 losses this year almost certainly OK for them, but a 3rd wouldn't be). Iowa might jump to be the favorite to outright win the Big Ten with a win. OSU is a two touchdown favorite.
Undefeated Florida at 1-loss Missouri: Florida is coming off a big win and Missouri off a loss. Florida is getting attention it hasn't in years, but the line here is not that big. Stay on focus and they probably win it, but the potential is definitely there for the distraction of attention to hurt them here just as it helped them last week (with Ole Miss riding high after the LSU win).
Eastern Michigan at Undefeated UMass: The last unbeaten in the MAC is a 5.5 point favorite. The MAC now really would prefer UMass to keep winning.
Undefeated BYU at TCU: BYU is a little under a touchdown favorite. They are one of the favorites to win the conference. Winning is big for that and for the Big 12's hope of a 2nd playoff spot for the first time.
1-Loss UTSA at Rice: UTSA is now actually the slight favorite to win the American. That can easily change depending on how they look. They are 11.5 point favorites.
Undefeated Miami (FL) at 1-loss Clemson: The ACC would prefer Miami to keep winning, stay as one of the top teams in the national title chase, and to represent the conference, but Clemson hasn't been bad since their early loss to Georgia and they are at home. Miami is a large favorite, but Clemson will get immediate respect if they pull this off.
Undefeated Texas Tech at Colorado: The Red Raiders are decent road favorites here. Coach Sanders hype or not, the Big 12 is better if Texas Tech wins here.
Temple at Undefeated South Florida: South Florida is the American's last unbeaten and 2nd favorite to win the conference. They are less than a touchdown favorite here though. This is the kind of games the American would like their favorites to win. Too much parity will cost the conference in the playoff race.
Undefeated Cincinnati at 1-loss Arizona: Cincinnati is still undefeated and will start to garner a lot more conference respect with a road win here. They are a touchdown underdog, but were similar last week before taking down Kansas State.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 4, American: 1, Big 12: 4, Big Ten: 4, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 5, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 22
Duke
Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech
Nebraska
Texas
Texas Tech
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Indiana
Iowa
Brigham Young
Utah
UCLA
Florida
Georgia
Alabama
Mississippi State
Notre Dame
Massachusetts
James Madison
North Dakota State
Remaining Winless Teams: American: 1, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 0, Sun Belt: 1, total: 4
Charlotte
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois
Louisiana-Monroe
