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Topic: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week

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Cincydawg

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #42 on: September 22, 2021, 11:55:46 AM »
If you are the House and get the betting to be balanced on both sides, you cannot lose, ever, no matter the outcome.


bayareabadger

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #43 on: September 22, 2021, 12:21:30 PM »
If they balance the money coming in, there can be no blind spot.  I wonder how often a line changes dramatically, say a game opens at +10 and some massive bet comes in, would it go to +15? 
I meant a systemic blind spot. 

If you build a computer model of something as unpredictable as CFB, you’re assuming a disciplined approach will have fewer blind spots than a person or people, who apply biases and feelings unevenly. The “problem” is that a model is rigid, and might not bend in a situation where a human could. 

Mdot21

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #44 on: September 22, 2021, 12:30:53 PM »
The biggest difference in Michigan's run game this year is the OL.  It's been very good against questionable defenses.  As always the RBs and other skill positions get the press.  We'll see if Michigan's OL can keep it up for the rest of the season.  In past years with good starts they could not against the better Big Ten defenses.
nothing questionable about Washington's defense at all. Washington has an excellent defense. Unfortunately for them, they also have one of the worst offenses in college football.

Cincydawg

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #45 on: September 22, 2021, 12:33:14 PM »
A terrible offense usually leads to an inadequate defense statistically for obvious reasons.

Mdot21

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #46 on: September 22, 2021, 12:35:59 PM »
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) at #19 Michigan Wolverines (3-0)
3:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC
Wherever Michigan's season goes from here, it was perhaps the win last year at Rutgers that put them in a place to have this success.  The Wolverines had lost 3 in a row, one as a 4 touchdown favorite, and the other two in blowout fashion, were trailing Rutgers 17-0 late in the first half, with just a 12% chance to win, and probably a similar chance of Harbaugh being back in 2021.  The season was completely off the rails.  Instead Harbaugh decided to pivot away from his Cam Newton/Vince Young hybrid in Joe Milton, to Cade McNamera.  McNamera almost immediately hit Conelius Johnson for a 43 yard touchdown pass, sparking a 48-42 triple overtime win.  McNamera finished 27-36 for 260 yards, 5 touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing), and no interceptions.  He had run off Milton, but was surely going to be supplanted by incoming 5* recruit J.J. McNamera, right?  Nope.  People act like he's some scrappy walk on.  247 ranked him as the #7 pro style QB coming out of high school, a 4* recruit who chose Michigan over USC.  No, Michigan isn't winning BECAUSE of him, but he is certainly allowing them to win.  Right now though, until someone forces McNamera to beat them, he will keep on picking his spots.  Rutgers will try, but as bad as Washington is, their defense is still #15 in the nation in SP+.  They held Arkansas State to 48 rushing yards on 2.1 ypc last week.  Michigan ran 56 times for 343 yards on 6.1 ypc on them.  And in the rain, with Michigan leading, and McNamera throwing just 14 passes, you know Washington was loaded up to stop the run.  They just couldn't do it.  As good as Rutgers is on defense, I'm not confident they are better than Washington, and now down their best cornerback, and another one in the rotation, just how confident is Greg Schiano in selling out to completely stop the run?  My guess is less so than he otherwise would have.  The Wolverines have their own issues at cornerback, so Noah Vedral, who has completed 80% of his passes over his last two games, is efficient enough to perhaps take some advantage to move the ball a little bit better than expected.  Remember, Washington did move the ball a little better than the final score would indicate.  Michigan is 3-0 against Rutgers in Ann Arbor, with an average score of 45-10.  I think the game will be a little better this year.
MICHIGAN 35, RUTGERS 23
I'm having a hard time seeing Rutgers keeping up. IF Michigan doesn't blow them out at home, Harbaugh can pack his bags and hit the road as far as I'm concerned. 

I COULD see some players peeking into next week knowing a big game at Wisconsin is just around the corner. But with Rutgers taking Michigan to OT last year and them barely escaping- I'd be shocked if they were looking past Rutgers. 

I'm saying- Michigan: 52, Rugters: 17.

Mdot21

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #47 on: September 22, 2021, 12:36:32 PM »
A terrible offense usually leads to an inadequate defense statistically for obvious reasons.
Washington defense is 15th in S&P+. If they had an even competent offense- they'd be higher. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #48 on: September 22, 2021, 12:43:16 PM »
Washington defense is 15th in S&P+. If they had an even competent offense- they'd be higher.
Yup, that's my point.  The same is true for a quick strike offense, and the reverse is true for a grind it out control offense.

Michigan 41  Rutger 16

Abba

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #49 on: September 22, 2021, 12:49:26 PM »
I think Rutgers may be a little better than they are being given credit for here.  I expect Michigan to win and keep some control, but I think we'll have a close game.  ELA's prediction seems pretty reasonable.

Cincydawg

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #50 on: September 22, 2021, 12:53:38 PM »
With a 20 pt spread and O/U of 50, the betting line is predicting something like 35-16.


Abba

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #51 on: September 22, 2021, 12:56:38 PM »
Then I like Rutgers +20.  I would have this spread somewhere between 11 and 14.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #52 on: September 22, 2021, 02:58:03 PM »
I had my first opportunity to watch Michigan on the Big Ten and 60 program. Admittedly I have not seen Rutgers yet.

I am sold on Michigan. Their execution, on both sides of the ball, is extremely crisp.  Mid season form. 

They are not running anything complex, but they have been masterful at mixing their plays and defensive calls, as well as disguising their defensive calls.  

The QB, IMHO is just what the doctor ordered. Fully grasps their game plan, Can execute consistently at a high-level, knows when to talk to the ball and run and is very accurate on the short to medium throws.

They are relatively easy and all at home schedule also affords them the foundational growth to get better and add more complexity to their office as the weeks go by.   

They will be a tough out for anybody in this conference and will be tough to stop.

I have no idea what Rutgers looks like but my suspicion is they will struggle over the long term to start Michigan’s running game and Michigan will wear them down, and pull away mid to late third quarter at the latest.
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Mdot21

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #53 on: September 22, 2021, 08:08:16 PM »
second week in a row Michigan has a player in the top 5 fastest college football players of the week list. 

RB Blake Corum was #1 on their list for week 2, WR Cornelius Johnson is #2 on the list for week 3 reaching a top speed of 22.4 MPH. Johnson has more speed than people realize. He's an elite athlete. AJ Henning & Roman Wilson are even faster. Not nearly as big or strong however. Ronnie Bell was their best most proven WR, but also the slowest and least explosive/athletic of them. 



https://twitter.com/RAanalytics/status/1440329977916899343?s=20

Brutus Buckeye

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Mdot21

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #55 on: September 23, 2021, 06:36:51 PM »
fricken kiss of death here. these jinx fks just jinxed Michigan. want to beat everyone who works at that useless rag up right now. knocking on wood. throwing salt over my shoulder and praying to jesus right now.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-believing-in-michigan-football/

 

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