header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

 (Read 524261 times)

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17672
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2646 on: May 15, 2020, 11:50:23 AM »
natural gas?
Eat your beans at every meal?

MichiFan87

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 796
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2647 on: May 15, 2020, 12:58:25 PM »
If you need more proof that most planned / under construction generation is wind and solar, here you go. You can see it in the links below, which are the interconnection queues of various ISO/RTOs throughout the country, which cover most of the country except the Southeast, MT/PT outside of California, Alaska, and Hawaii.

Here's Texas (ERCOT) http://mis.ercot.com/misapp/GetReports.do?reportTypeId=15933&reportTitle=GIS%20Report&showHTMLView=&mimicKey
Here's the Great Plains (SPP) http://opsportal.spp.org/Studies/GIActive
MISO has an interactive map: https://api.misoenergy.org/PublicGiQueueMap/index.html
NY's is in a somewhat confusing spreadsheet contained within this link https://www.nyiso.com/interconnections
Here's New England (ISONE) https://irtt.iso-ne.com/reports/external

For the Mid-Atlantic & OH & Northern Illinois (PJM) you have to filter out by status the projects that aren't happening or are already done: https://www.pjm.com/planning/services-requests/interconnection-queues.aspx

California (CAISO) doesn't seem to have their's publicly available without access to their system for some reason, but of course they have more wind and solar than most states and are starting to phase out gas now.

As for the states outside of these markets, utilities have to publish integrated resource plans (IRPs) that show their future plans and projects, including which generators they plan to build and retire. They're somewhat hard to read, but usually they get reported on to summarize what's in them. Here is the summary of NVE's for example:
https://www.nvenergy.com/publish/content/dam/nvenergy/brochures_arch/about-nvenergy/rates-regulatory/recent-regulatory-filings/nve/irp/NVE-18-06003-IRP-VOL4.pdf
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71536
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2648 on: May 15, 2020, 01:03:44 PM »
I don't think anyone here is looking for such proof, nor is anyone denying it.

I'm trying to visualize a possible energy mix in 2030 in the US, a probable energy mix, and what would be different if government does a lot versus a little.

I provided one vision of a possible energy mix by 2030.  Is there another one somewhere?

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 930
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2649 on: May 15, 2020, 01:16:19 PM »
mandated white roofs

there's a place for the government to get involved and waste large piles of $$$
Yeah, I didn't say it was a good idea.  I imagine it would be impossible to implement, and the reward wouldn't be worth it.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 930
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2650 on: May 15, 2020, 01:17:28 PM »
LA tried painting a street white.  It was an absurd idea of course and ended quickly.

A lot of the heat retention of course happens at night.
But..why??

Entropy

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1432
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2651 on: May 15, 2020, 01:19:31 PM »
Yeah, I didn't say it was a good idea.  I imagine it would be impossible to implement, and the reward wouldn't be worth it.
 i think this would be more probable in heavy or light industry.   It would come down to paint.   Residential would be much tougher.  

Entropy

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1432
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2652 on: May 15, 2020, 01:20:05 PM »
paint on streets is bad idea when mixed with rain.  Roads are very slick when painted.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71536
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 930
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2654 on: May 15, 2020, 01:23:57 PM »
So, let's imagine that by 2030, electrical demand in the US stays flat.  That isn't a ridiculous assumption I think.

Wind and solar double by then, which would mean a 7.8% increase each year.  That seems also not to be ridiculous, stretching a bit perhaps.

So, W&S now add up to 18% of demand (roughly).  Nuclear stays at 20%.  Hydro etc. stay around 8%.  Coal, now around 20% goes to zero.

The 9% increase in W&S offsets almost half the coal losses.  What makes up for the missing power?

Is it realistic to expect W&S to TRIPLE by 2030?  Or are we going to be stuck with coal still for around 10%?


Two questions.

I doubt coal sticks around.  It is more expensive, harder to transport, less efficient, and doesn't burn nearly as clean as NG.  Worst case scenario, I think NG replaces coal.

Second question.  Solar will probably continue to grow faster than wind.  Both will continue to grow, probably faster than you've listed, IMO.  If the problem of energy storage can be solved, than W&S will start to eat into natural gas very quickly.  If.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71536
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2655 on: May 15, 2020, 01:26:17 PM »
https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/renewables-growth-must-increase-fourfold-by-2030-to-meet-climate-targets/2-1-736294

The share of renewables in the global energy system needs to more than double by the end of the 2020s ­— with $10trn of fossil-fuel investment redirected — if the world is to limit climate change to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena).

Renewable energy should supply 57% of global power by 2030, up from 26% today, requiring a fourfold increase in the speed of renewables growth, the agency explained at its annual assembly in Abu Dhabi.

This articles sets a goal, this is global, of quadrupling W&S by 2030.  What would it take for that to happen in reality?  This is global, and likely presumes no increase in demand.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71536
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2656 on: May 15, 2020, 01:28:38 PM »
To get coal to near zero IN THE US, by 2030, we would need more NG generation.  That of course is US only where NG is an option.  

It would not help China.  I would by fine with a goal of Coal Zero by 2030.  I think it's doable, barely, but with additional NG to make up the hole.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25205
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2657 on: May 15, 2020, 01:31:31 PM »
We have been doing some projects lately using white-topping. It's essentially a concrete layer over existing asphalt that has failed. We've had some success with it. It isn't cheap, but it seems to be lasting longer than traditional asphalt repaving. 

https://pavementinteractive.org/reference-desk/maintenance-and-rehabilitation/rehabilitation/thin-whitetopping/

U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Entropy

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1432
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2658 on: May 15, 2020, 01:35:04 PM »
asphalt feels like a cheap, short term fix.   No inside knowledge or data, just my perception as a driver.

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37516
  • Liked:
Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2659 on: May 15, 2020, 01:36:10 PM »
using asphalt as a base for concrete might be the best
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.