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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #658 on: November 07, 2018, 02:56:18 PM »
Atlanta is a big EV market also (as in second behind SF).

https://www.fleetcarma.com/top-cities-electric-vehicle-sales/

Of course, most of the "E" comes from burning coal, though there is some nuclear and gas of course.


MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #659 on: November 07, 2018, 03:05:09 PM »
There is some correlation between EV sales and renewable generation in that locale. On that list alone, the only exceptions to that are Atlanta, Detroit, and DC, while West Coast gets a substantial amount of its electricity from hydro, wind, and solar.

For the record, coal has already fallen below natural gas as the main source of electricity: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3.
Furthermore, the most coal-dependent states are the most rural (where there are few EVs): https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37034
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #660 on: November 07, 2018, 03:11:28 PM »
I was incorrect that "most" of our E comes from coal, only a quarter does.  The two new power reactors are still under construction at Vogtle, of course running well over cost estimates..

https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=GA




MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #661 on: November 07, 2018, 03:34:24 PM »
Nuclear has a lot of problems, which is why there are have been very few nuclear plants built in the past 30 years, with Georgia's being the last one still under construction, and many are retiring along with coal plants.

- Upfront costs, which are very high and often underestimated (Georgia's plant being a prime example). They're also not cost effective if they don't have really high generation capacity, though there is R&D being done to commercialize smaller-scale systems.
- Operation and maintenance costs are also fairly substantial
- Inflexibility in generation output. Nuclear is basically on or off, and it's expensive to turn on and off (usually only done once per year for maintenance as I understand it). Apparently France's plants have some flexibility for some reason, but that isn't the case in the US. Consequently, they can only be used as baseload plants so they have to be cost-effective enough to ensure that they will be cheap enough to dispatch at the lowest-demand hours (ie. middle of the night)..... This becomes increasingly problematic with the growth of renewables (which have no generation costs and their output cannot be controlled without energy storage infrastructure)
- Wholesale electricity markets (PJM, NYISO, ERCOT, ISONE, etc.) have provided competition allowing independent generators to compete to improve the cost-effectiveness and reliability of electricity. These markets only exist in the Northeast, Midwest, Texas, and California, but those states are where most of the nuclear plants are being retired as a result.... Conversely, the Southeast states, including Georgia, still have a traditional system where utilities monopolize generation, in addition to transmission, distribution, and energy sales.... That said, some states (IL and NY primarily) do subsidize nuclear with what they call zero emission credits as part of their renewable (or more accurately in this case, zero-carbon) portfolio standards. Other states are considering similar policies to prevent their nuclear plants from retiring early.

This article explains this and some other issues better: https://theconversation.com/the-demise-of-us-nuclear-power-in-4-charts-98817
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 03:36:41 PM by MichiFan87 »
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #662 on: November 07, 2018, 03:41:15 PM »
I read that only about 0.5% of US residences have PVs on their roofs.  I looked into it in Ohio and for me it was not even close to being viably financially.  I keep reading that PV is near par with whatever, but there is something wrong somewhere.  Part of that is I had to buy the PVs and then find someone to install them correctly, and the latter step was not easy.

MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #663 on: November 07, 2018, 03:58:37 PM »
Solar is most cost effective in the West, particularly California, where electricity prices are higher and solar generation potential is higher (more sunny days). Ohio has relatively cheap electricity because it is part of PJM and the solar generation potential isn't so great. Regardless of where you live, energy efficiency investments are more cost-effective, too (smart thermostat, LED lighting, EnergyStar appliances).

Furthermore, solar is most cost effective for utility-scale systems due to economies of scale. Commercial-scale systems (those on land fills, roofs of schools / warehouses / etc.) are increasingly cost-effective, as well, especially in community solar programs (where entities can subscribe to the system, even if their building is elsewhere)..... Also, non-residential buildings have more complex electricity bills. Instead of just a flat rate, they have peak demand charges (a charge based on their highest level of energy usage) and often have time-of-use rates, which fluctuate in real-time based on the wholesale cost of electricity. These facilities can actually take advantage of these complexities to lower their overall price per kWh if they utilize their energy management systems and on-site generators appropriately, in which case they can even be compensated by the independent system operator of the wholesale market (eg. PJM) to help keep the grid balanced.

Solar is cost-effective for residential systems in many areas, as well, but a big issue, especially in Southern states, are rules against leasing them (which was SolarCity's model before Tesla took it over) so that the company owns the system and takes a percentage of electricity generated, eliminating the up-front costs. My understanding is that there are similar restrictions against financing (so that the customer owns the system but took a loan to do so). Permitting requirements and regulations are also a big challenge, not to mention many roofs don't get enough solar exposure or don't face sufficiently south or westward.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #664 on: November 07, 2018, 04:24:59 PM »
For us, it was not remotely close to being viable, off by 5-7x as I recall, and our roof had good orientation.

Whatever the barriers, roof top solar is not taking hold very quickly.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #665 on: November 07, 2018, 07:21:31 PM »
**(A nice benefit is that these standard recharges are so far 100% free of cost. And Musk has multiply promised to never change that. So, if you go on one of these road trips now, or wait until years from now and believe him, you can travel from NYC to Los Angeles without paying for gas. That's mighty nice.)
I find that if you tally Musk's realized claims in one hand and his bulljive claims in another, you won't be happy about which one fills up first. :)
And saying "oh, just schedule it around a lunch stop" or something like that is the equivalent of saying "oh, take Amtrak, it's so romantic to ride the rails!"
Next weekend the wife and I are going to Sonoma. Rather than fight traffic through / out of LA on a Friday [which is hell], have to stop midway and get a hotel, we'd rather just start first thing in the morning. But we want to get there and still have time for wineries. Scheduling an extra 30-60 minutes into our drive time--and hoping the only Supercharger station in the right range to get us there with a single stop [247 miles from home, on a 450 mile journey] isn't busy or have a line on a Saturday morning, kinda makes our journey duration... unpredictable. 
Not much of an issue with a 5 minute gas stop. 
Now, I realize that's not the most common problem. Most people who can afford Tesla vehicles have another vehicle in their household--or enough money to rent cars for those infrequent road trips. So most people have access to a secondary vehicle to use for the journeys that the Tesla isn't well suited for.
BUT, this is one of the key reasons why electrics will have trouble completely replacing combustion engines. The need to change your refueling/recharging stop from 5 minutes to 30-60 minutes (or more if there's a wait) makes the vehicle impractical for a lot of drivers--at least as their only household vehicle. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #666 on: November 07, 2018, 07:28:59 PM »
For us, it was not remotely close to being viable, off by 5-7x as I recall, and our roof had good orientation.

Whatever the barriers, roof top solar is not taking hold very quickly.
Oddly enough, back during the recession of 2007-09, there was a program derisively called "Cash for caulkers" after the poorly-executed "cash for clunkers" failed. It was a way to subsidize energy-efficient retrofits of existing houses.
While my political leanings make me bristle at it, from an economic standpoint it makes a lot of sense. 
The biggest issue with energy-efficient retrofits is that the upfront cost is often quite high, but the savings are spread out over time. So you need money now in the assumption of long-term savings. It's the opposite of a get-rich-quick scheme! Further, I think a lot of energy efficiency upgrades are hard to recoup in the sale of a house, so unless you stay in the same house long-term, you'll never make your investment back.
That said, energy efficiency is a net gain to society. It reduces aggregate demand, reduces the environmental impact of generating energy, and in the long term reduces cost to everyone. 
So it's the PERFECT sort of thing to subsidize, because it has a lot of positive externalities that are difficult for the purchaser to recoup, so energy efficiency upgrades receive under-investment in the market. 
But that's why rooftop solar doesn't take off. If I have to pay $15,000 to put solar on my roof, but it will take me 10 years to recoup the investment, I have to KNOW I'm planning on staying in a house for 10+ years. That's hard to do in our modern world. Hence fewer people buy these systems than would do so if there was a better business model that reduced the upfront cost. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #667 on: November 07, 2018, 07:38:07 PM »
I calculated a negative net future value on solar.  I was better off buying T bills.

MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #668 on: November 07, 2018, 09:12:09 PM »
The reason energy efficiency incentives exist is because it's much more cost-effective for utilities to pay for rebates on those upgrades than it is for them to build a peaker plant that only operates during the summer (and the marginal price of the electricity coming from it) and the associated transmission & distribution infrastructure. In fact, California has deployed energy storage systems instead of building additional generation, transmission, and distribution equipment for those peak demand hours. Demand response (paying consumers to reduce their usage during those peak demand hours) is part of the solution as well.

That said, the payback period for many energy efficiency upgrades isn't necessarily quick for the residential sector, and they aren't often accounted for in home values. That's why ESCOs exist to finance those projects (albeit they're focused on commercial, industrial, and public sector entities). Same deal with roof-top solar and other on-site generation projects.

And yes, Musk does often overpromise and underdeliver, but he has the right vision in place. Electrification and automation of the auto industry is inevitable. Roof-top solar will be cost-effective for most people, eventually, and despite all that, we still might have to colonize Mars (thus Spacex).
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #669 on: November 07, 2018, 09:38:58 PM »
I'm not going to make it to Barcelona

sure as heck ain't goin to Mars
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #670 on: November 07, 2018, 11:25:25 PM »
sure as heck ain't goin to Mars
Not too late to change that expectation. Musk's BFR will be ready preposterously soon.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #671 on: November 08, 2018, 07:40:42 AM »
Getting to Mars is considerably tougher than getting to the Moon, one reason being radiation exposure.  I have not seen a viable solution to that one as yet.  It probably would be a one way trip.  

Anyway, the climate change is a fairly simple calculation (sort of).  We have a pretty good handle on how many gigatons of CO2 are generated each year.  We know roughly how much is "absorbed" by this and that.  We track very accurately the rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere (station on Mauna Loa has been there a while).  We have various models projecting the increase in global T as a function of said increase.

Then we can eyeball how much realistic steps might reduce the RATE OF INCREASE.  Had we started in earnest in say 1990 we might have a shot.  Today it's too late to do anything more than chisel a few tenths of a degree off the inevitable, if the models are right.

What I've seen of the ITER experiment in France is quite disappointing, a lot of internal strife and overruns.

 

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