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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2604 on: May 13, 2020, 06:15:21 PM »
Geothermal uses a heat pump.  It doesn't use hot rocks from the ground.  It is very efficient and best when installed as new construction.  But, it's a heat pump.

Our HVAC system here is two heat pumps using water from the building.  The water comes in, the heat pump either extracts heat, in winter, or pushes heat into the water from the air, and the water either warmed or cooled goes back to the building cooling tower.  It's very efficient and somewhat akin to geothermal.

Geothermal works the same way except the coolant is fed through pipes in the ground where the temperature is a constant 55°F or so, winter or summer.  You need a good length of pipe(s) for this to work of course.  Heat pumps are great except the air to air kind, and they are OK down to about 40°F air temperature.

And the cool thing is they are air conditioners as well, same unit.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2605 on: May 13, 2020, 06:20:03 PM »
One thing that might effect this -- I believe the total number of cars on the road is supposed drop pretty significantly once self driving cars become viable. 

A typical person's car is only used for a fraction of the day.  In theory, a single self driving car could service multiple people.  Google/Uber/etc foresee such a world.  You'd schedule your pickup and a self driving car would be there to take you anywhere you need to go.
I think self-driving cars are a little farther away than most people think, and the business model that will cause wholesale adoption of car service vs car ownership will take some transition. 

My guess is that the earliest we see that is somewhere between 2025-2030. Tesla is making good progress in L2/L3 autonomy, but the jump to L5 autonomy is not trivial. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2606 on: May 13, 2020, 06:27:59 PM »
It could be further out, and it might not be adopted very quickly either except by urbanites like me.

How many folks use Uber/Lyft?  Suburbanites?  Folks in rural areas?

Not much.  We like our personal cars.  It will have an impact though, I just don't know when.  The GM Supercruise capability is impressive to me.

I could see a purpose designed odd looking self driving vehicle that would be great in cities and replace a lot of rapid transit.  We're supposed to build more light rail around here but I wonder if it will really happen, it seems to be a ways off.


MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2607 on: May 13, 2020, 06:33:13 PM »
As I understand it, geothermal has great potential for volcanic islands like Hawaii, but it's just not cost-competitive in most situations.

I would also like to see a lot of existing dams that don't produce electricity retrofitted to do so. I still don't quite understand the holdup with that.

As for autonomous vehicles, I've been frustrated by the lack of progress on that front. From what I've heard, the technology is pretty much there and regulations are the main holdup. Once that is widely available it will definitely reduce the number of vehicles being used (and make car ownership obsolete for people in/near cities).... Hopefully Europe will be able adopt them sooner to prove their viability....
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2608 on: May 13, 2020, 06:42:39 PM »
It could be further out, and it might not be adopted very quickly either except by urbanites like me.

How many folks use Uber/Lyft?  Suburbanites?  Folks in rural areas?

Not much.  We like our personal cars.  It will have an impact though, I just don't know when.  
The supposed business model is that it will bring prices down. Right now the price of Uber/Lyft for all usage is not cost competitive with individual car ownership, and the time delay in suburban areas to get your ride isn't convenient. 

Removing the driver will bring the price down, and bringing the price down will make it much more ubiquitous, which helps to solve the suburbanite response time problem.

Still a bunch of problems to get through on the economics. 


Quote
The GM Supercruise capability is impressive to me.
They make the smart choice to watch the driver's eyes to make sure the driver is actually still attentive and paying attention, and will alarm you (and eventually disable the vehicle) if you're not. 

Which for L2 level autonomy seems like a pretty critical feature. I can't imagine why the most well-known self-drive feature hasn't done that...


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I could see a purpose designed odd looking self driving vehicle that would be great in cities and replace a lot of rapid transit.  We're supposed to build more light rail around here but I wonder if it will really happen, it seems to be a ways off.
Yeah, the problem with things like rail is that it's great if goes from exactly where you are to exactly where you're going. But if you need transit to/from the start point and to/from the end point, basically you've turned one trip into 3. That's fine in some cases; but doesn't really replace the automobile. 

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2609 on: May 13, 2020, 07:19:22 PM »
I think self-driving cars are a little farther away than most people think, and the business model that will cause wholesale adoption of car service vs car ownership will take some transition.

My guess is that the earliest we see that is somewhere between 2025-2030. Tesla is making good progress in L2/L3 autonomy, but the jump to L5 autonomy is not trivial.
I really hope not.

I test drove a Tesla last year and they told me they are 100% ready to go.  As in TODAY.  It's a simple matter of remotely updating the software.  Unfortunately, we have to wait for government deregulation.

They say their self driving vehicles are twice as safe as human drivers. 

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2610 on: May 13, 2020, 07:23:27 PM »
As I understand it, geothermal has great potential for volcanic islands like Hawaii, but it's just not cost-competitive in most situations.

I would also like to see a lot of existing dams that don't produce electricity retrofitted to do so. I still don't quite understand the holdup with that.

As for autonomous vehicles, I've been frustrated by the lack of progress on that front. From what I've heard, the technology is pretty much there and regulations are the main holdup. Once that is widely available it will definitely reduce the number of vehicles being used (and make car ownership obsolete for people in/near cities).... Hopefully Europe will be able adopt them sooner to prove their viability....
No active volcanoes here.  At least I hope not.  :)

CD is right.  They drill deep enough to pull ambient temperatures from the earth, rather than trying to cool or heat outside temps.  I'm fairly certain it can be done anywhere.  Costs may vary, I suppose.

Granted, I'm speaking residential.  You might be talking industrial, which I know next to nothing about.

SFBadger96

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2611 on: May 13, 2020, 08:02:24 PM »
My understanding is that autonomous cars are more a matter of regulation than technology now. One problem, though, is that they will have to be much safer than human drivers to win that regulatory approval. We can tolerate human fallibility, but we can't tolerate a programmable machine that hasn't taken account of known safety issues. At this point, any safety problem with cars will be assumed known, so when an autonomous vehicle fails in a given situation, the public will go nuts. Pushing this hysteria will be all of the industries that depend on people as drivers for economic gain (and there are a lot of them).

I don't think we're close to capable of making the risk/benefit decision: these cars are 75% safer than human drivers, so we will overlook the failure to deal with these rare, but known situations, or these rare, but known flaws with the detection systems. In real terms, we won't trade 40,000 deaths per year at human hands for 10,000 deaths per year at machines' programming if that programming results in 10,000 deaths that a good human driver would have avoided.

CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2612 on: May 13, 2020, 11:15:51 PM »
What was misleading about it?  Temperatures have been rising dramatically after being pretty consistent for hundreds of years.

It has been spot on.
The "Roman warming period" looks like a cooling period.

Was that another Northern Hemisphere-only phenomenon?
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2613 on: May 14, 2020, 07:46:06 AM »
Does anyone have a plan?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2614 on: May 14, 2020, 09:06:14 AM »
As I understand it, geothermal has great potential for volcanic islands like Hawaii, but it's just not cost-competitive in most situations.

I would also like to see a lot of existing dams that don't produce electricity retrofitted to do so. I still don't quite understand the holdup with that.
This isn't what geothermal means.  And there are technical reasons why it doesn't really work in Hawaii despite years of effort.

Dams not fitted with hydro simply are too small to generate enough power for it to pay off.  And, many dams are subject to being taken out for environmental reasons.

Hydro is going to go backwards.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2615 on: May 14, 2020, 09:15:53 AM »
Does anyone have a plan?
My partial and incomplete plan would be to replace coal fired generating plants as quickly as possible .... with something.  But if EVs really take hold and we need more generating capacity, that might be tougher than otherwise. Maybe wind and solar double by 2030, but that wouldn't keep up with growth in demand.  

What fills the gap here?  And how much does it cost?  We'd be taking functioning coal plants off line before their time.  And, something has to replace it AND provide more capacity even if EVs are largely charged at night.  Southern states can handle this or get close because they have extra capacity for AC demand in the day.

But at night when they normally shut down NG turbines, they'd have to keep them running.

This is why nobody can come forth with an actual plan, even doing a relatively small thing is very very challenging, and expensive.  I'm all for getting rid of coal, but we HAVE to replace it with something other than Fairy Dust.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2616 on: May 14, 2020, 09:23:13 AM »
Does anyone have a plan?
I do think a carbon tax should factor in.

My previous discussion (replacing the regressive payroll tax with a regressive revenue neutral carbon tax) apparently doesn't quite add up math-wise. It's too much revenue to replace so the carbon tax would probably be too high. 

Money talks, and BS (most of our politicians) walks. Make carbon more expensive, and you'll see it more likely that companies and individuals try to avoid it. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2617 on: May 14, 2020, 09:30:13 AM »
This isn't what geothermal means.  And there are technical reasons why it doesn't really work in Hawaii despite years of effort.

Dams not fitted with hydro simply are too small to generate enough power for it to pay off.  And, many dams are subject to being taken out for environmental reasons.

Hydro is going to go backwards.
Correct, especially on that bolded part.
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