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Topic: Weather, Climate, and Environment

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2618 on: May 14, 2020, 09:37:40 AM »
The "Roman warming period" looks like a cooling period.

Was that another Northern Hemisphere-only phenomenon?
let’s talk about medieval warm period first, because that was more substantial. 

We have limited data from that time. Note the grey area in the chart I posted. That’s uncertainty.  We made our best guess with what we know. 

1.  Note that the difference between the little ice age and the medieval warming period is tiny. Probably about 0.1 degrees C, but even using the extremes of uncertainty, it is 1 degree.  It is also possible that the medieval warm period was colder than the little ice age. 
2.  Uncertainty now is much smaller. Note how the grey area nearly disappears in modern times. 
3.  How do temperatures today compare to the little ice age and the medieval warm period?  We are probably about 1 degree higher, but possibly 2 degrees higher or as low as 0.6 degrees higher. 

either way we are undeniably and substantially warmer. 


In regards to the Roman warm period - it is the start of that same graph. Yes, temperatures today exceed this period by about one degree.  Further research has shown this period, along with the little ice age and the medieval warm period were likely regional, and not global. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2619 on: May 14, 2020, 09:39:41 AM »
Making carbon more expensive would "work" depending on how expensive you make it.  It's very cheap at the moment.  And of course, higher priced fuel hurts the working poor more than the middle class and wealthy, as usual.

And, it won't really make enough difference anyway, as we have seen unless it is draconian.  My idea was to add a nickel a gallon gas tax every January and use the revenue for infrastructure.  That could be OK, but it won't change the current trajectory in any measurable sense of CO2 reduction.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2620 on: May 14, 2020, 09:40:33 AM »
It is interesting to note how difficult it is to measure "mean global temperature" ... but if we take this chart as correct (measured over land, ignoring 70% of the surface which is water):



... we have already warmed about 1°C since 1900.  One can detect a pause of sorts around 1950 and then a steady increase since about 1970 or so.

So, if the "need" is to limit the increase (anomaly) to 2°C or less, well, we're already in a deep hole.


Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2621 on: May 14, 2020, 09:46:26 AM »
So, the US could adopt some kind of carbon tax, push more wind and solar, phase out coal, subsidize/encourage EVs, and we're still not only short of any goal by 2030, we're not really making a dent in the global climate picture.  At best, we're compensating for China and India, and the global CO2 output would AT BEST level off.

I doubt it would level off, but that's my Polly Anna concept here.  Level off.  Not nearly good enough.  And every year that passes without significant cuts makes it all much worse.

CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2622 on: May 14, 2020, 09:59:44 AM »
I have seen other charts show a cooling period in the 1960s and '70s.  There was some alarm about an impending ice age.

[img width=342.983 height=500]https://aaronjhill.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/screenhunter_1038-feb-11-18-32.gif[/img]
Nov 1969



24 Jun 1974

[img width=378.977 height=500]https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/time-1977-bigfreeze.jpg?w=720[/img]
31 Jan 1977


Apr 1977.  I like this one.  "Why We Can't Beat the Soviets."
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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2623 on: May 14, 2020, 10:10:01 AM »
Does anyone have a plan?

I have a plan-- I'm taking the boat out this weekend to enjoy the weather, climate, and environment.


Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2624 on: May 14, 2020, 10:27:12 AM »
I have seen other charts show a cooling period in the 1960s and '70s.  There was some alarm about an impending ice age.

[img width=342.983 height=500]https://aaronjhill.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/screenhunter_1038-feb-11-18-32.gif[/img]
Nov 1969



24 Jun 1974

[img width=378.983 height=500]https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/time-1977-bigfreeze.jpg?w=720[/img]
31 Jan 1977


Apr 1977.  I like this one.  "Why We Can't Beat the Soviets."

Did you read these articles?

These addressed a valid concern at the time.  Global dimming due to pollution.  They would still be relevant today, but we have curbed air pollution dramatically.

Here's the crazy thing.  We still have a fair amount of global dimming, and our temperatures continue to rise.

People have actually postulated that we should dirty our air again in order to fight global warming.  Yikes.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2625 on: May 14, 2020, 10:46:51 AM »
Here is a brief summary of what I think:

1.  CO2 levels are rising rather steeply - this is known.
2.  The CO2 is nearly all manmade - this is known (from isotope studies).  We can take 1 and 2 as facts.
3.  The mean global temperature has been rising faster than can be expected from any known natural phenomenon.  I'd take this as 90+% true.
4.  There are models that variously show our climate should get considerably warmer in the future if nothing is done , this is a statement of fact.
5.  "We" collectively show little real sign of interrupting this CO2 trend soon enough to prevent significant warming, if the models are correct.  I'd take this as 90+% true also.  Some here disagree, but they seem not to have much of a factual basis for it.
6.  Warming of 3°C or more would be bad in many ways, perhaps good in some ways.  Sea level rise would be a problem.  Adverse impact to oceanic systems likely will be bad.  Our oceans provide the primary carbon sink, not forests.  CO2 is less soluble in warmer water than cooler.
7.  I hope the models are too extreme in their predictions.  I don't know if they are, but climate, in my view, is extremely complex and the models could well be over simplifying various feedbacks, for better or worse.

Now, if someone thinks wind and solar and fusion and batteries and EVs can really alter Item 5 above, OK with me, I clearly do not.  The simple math to me looks inexorable and I view all these accords and promises and targets as being political BS and spin.

Show me .... the money.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2626 on: May 14, 2020, 12:20:41 PM »
Here is a brief summary of what I think:

1.  CO2 levels are rising rather steeply - this is known.
2.  The CO2 is nearly all manmade - this is known (from isotope studies).  We can take 1 and 2 as facts.
3.  The mean global temperature has been rising faster than can be expected from any known natural phenomenon.  I'd take this as 90+% true.
4.  There are models that variously show our climate should get considerably warmer in the future if nothing is done , this is a statement of fact.
5.  "We" collectively show little real sign of interrupting this CO2 trend soon enough to prevent significant warming, if the models are correct.  I'd take this as 90+% true also.  Some here disagree, but they seem not to have much of a factual basis for it.
6.  Warming of 3°C or more would be bad in many ways, perhaps good in some ways.  Sea level rise would be a problem.  Adverse impact to oceanic systems likely will be bad.  Our oceans provide the primary carbon sink, not forests.  CO2 is less soluble in warmer water than cooler.
7.  I hope the models are too extreme in their predictions.  I don't know if they are, but climate, in my view, is extremely complex and the models could well be over simplifying various feedbacks, for better or worse.

Now, if someone thinks wind and solar and fusion and batteries and EVs can really alter Item 5 above, OK with me, I clearly do not.  The simple math to me looks inexorable and I view all these accords and promises and targets as being political BS and spin.

Show me .... the money.

3.  I believe the IPCC has it at a greater than 95% chance at this point.  But it is more than that.  The IPCC actually states, with a 95% confidence level, that humans are responsible for ALL of the global warming in at least the last 60 years.  As far as science is concerned, that's about as rock solid as it gets.  That's because we have eliminated any other cause we can think of.  There is an extremely slim possibility that there is something out there that science has not discovered.  

6.  Absolute worst case scenario?  Wide spread flooding, famine, civil and social unrest.  Probably pretty slim it gets that bad at 3 degrees though.  However, if there was a 1% chance of this happening, that is pretty darn scary.  People buy fire insurance on the 1% chance their house burns down.

7.  Models have uncertainty built in.  Where will we be in 50 years?  That depends on our inputs.  Do we curb CO2 emissions?  Increase them?  Even if we guess at our inputs, uncertainty will still remain.  This is not really a problem, because we aren't trying to be perfect. It is worth saying that models have consistently underestimated global warming, as scientists tend to hedge on the side of caution.

Riffraft

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2627 on: May 14, 2020, 12:32:27 PM »
I do think a carbon tax should factor in.

My previous discussion (replacing the regressive payroll tax with a regressive revenue neutral carbon tax) apparently doesn't quite add up math-wise. It's too much revenue to replace so the carbon tax would probably be too high.

Money talks, and BS (most of our politicians) walks. Make carbon more expensive, and you'll see it more likely that companies and individuals try to avoid it.
For a person who claims to be a libertarian, you seem to like taxes and government control of things.

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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2628 on: May 14, 2020, 12:38:38 PM »
Sea level rise would be a problem.

Why?

I mean it's not going to rise 100' or some crazy amount or rise quickly enough to drown folks like a tidal wave?
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2629 on: May 14, 2020, 01:01:03 PM »
Sea level rise would be a problem.

Why?

I mean it's not going to rise 100' or some crazy amount or rise quickly enough to drown folks like a tidal wave?
If all land ice melted, sea levels would rise 70 METERS.  Yes, 100’ is quite possible.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2630 on: May 14, 2020, 01:15:05 PM »
If all land ice melted, sea levels would rise 70 METERS.  Yes, 100’ is quite possible.
I should mention the IPCC projects sea levels to rise between 1-4 feet by 2100.  :)

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2631 on: May 14, 2020, 01:28:18 PM »
I should mention the IPCC projects sea levels to rise between 1-4 feet by 2100.  :)
+/- 3'.

Hmm.
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