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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4718 on: April 29, 2021, 04:25:28 PM »
A goal is irrelevant at best without an actionable plan, and often ends in frustrating failure.

It can be worse than nothing.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4719 on: April 29, 2021, 04:28:57 PM »
To put it more realistic terms... I just got back into golf last summer. I realized how much I missed the game. And I've realized, like most people, that I kinda suck at it. 

I have the physical talent to be a much better golfer than I am. I'm also reaching a point in my life where I have more time and opportunity to improve my golf game. 

So it's time to set a goal. And that's easy... My goal is to be a scratch (or even plus-handicap) golfer. 

This is like the "lose 30 lbs if you're 30 lbs overweight" goal. That's a lofty goal, but it is one that I should be physically and mentally capable of attaining. It's not like playing professionally; it's not a lotto ticket. 

So... Gotta move to plan. Again, that's easy. Practice at the range and lessons to improve my swing mechanics. Practice short game and putting, which I can do at the same facility. I've bought a putting mat for home practice just to work on mechanics and stroke. Joining an online golf forum in order to learn from others. And of course, playing on-course as much as I can to both apply and refine what I'm doing in off-course practice. 

Finally, we get to the question of "willing to execute the plan sufficiently to meet my goal", and that's where I falter. 

The truth is, I think it'll take MORE time, MORE practice, MORE dedication than I'm willing to put in to get to scratch. I have a job, and a wife, and kids. I probably can't devote enough time to practice or play to get to scratch. 

But I look at this like a weight loss goal... If I keep putting in the work that I'm capable and willing to put in, I can probably drop my handicap significantly from where it is right now. If over the span of 2 years I can cut it in half or by two thirds, I'll go from being a typical weekend duffer to a pretty respectable amateur golfer. Even if my goal is scratch, I'll be improving my enjoyment of the game whether I get to scratch or not. 

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4720 on: April 29, 2021, 04:32:28 PM »
Approximately 1.85 percent of male golfers are scratch or better,

the goal is not reasonable or obtainable 
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4721 on: April 29, 2021, 04:55:33 PM »
Approximately 1.85 percent of male golfers are scratch or better,

the goal is not reasonable or obtainable
That's 1 in 54. And golf is not a game that requires next-level athleticism or insane hand-eye coordination. Just dedication and work.

If we were talking 1 in 540, I'd say it's not reasonable or attainable as a goal. But not 1 in 54.

But as mentioned, I don't know that I have the time to put in that work, so I'm not saying I'll get there. 

MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4722 on: April 29, 2021, 07:58:15 PM »
I mean, sure, and you could also plan to hit the links every other Saturday and drink a case of beer and hope you get better too. These are both plans. 

utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4723 on: April 29, 2021, 11:15:51 PM »
A goal of being a scratch golfer iis all fine and dandy, but the current administration's emissions goal is more like-- win as many majors as Tiger, Jack, and Ben combined.  Oh and you don't get to start until you're 80 years old.  Now... GO!
« Last Edit: April 29, 2021, 11:24:37 PM by utee94 »

MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4724 on: April 30, 2021, 07:00:50 AM »
A goal of being a scratch golfer iis all fine and dandy, but the current administration's emissions goal is more like-- win as many majors as Tiger, Jack, and Ben combined.  Oh and you don't get to start until you're 80 years old.  Now... GO!

But isn't the alternative plan just not playing golf at all?

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4725 on: April 30, 2021, 07:53:12 AM »
I believe that someone said this earlier in the thread, but I am going to repeat it. What is the primary objective that the goal of cutting carbon emissions is trying to achieve? 

From what I have seen and read, IF the US were to completely cut carbon emissions, it would only have the effect of dropping global mean temps by 1/10th of 1 degree. Is this really something that we want to sacrifice time and treasure to do? This all assumes that climate change is due to man caused actions. Never mind the fact that the earths climate is in a constant state of change and anything we do is like pissing in the wind compared to the effects that the sun has on the climate. 

The fact of the matter is, that unless we take the United States back to the stone age, cutting carbon emissions by 50% in the time frame proposed is not feasible or practical. That does not mean that we should not look to find ways to produce energy cleaner than we do now and eliminate pollution was much as reasonably possible. 

MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4726 on: April 30, 2021, 08:33:45 AM »
I believe that someone said this earlier in the thread, but I am going to repeat it. What is the primary objective that the goal of cutting carbon emissions is trying to achieve?

From what I have seen and read, IF the US were to completely cut carbon emissions, it would only have the effect of dropping global mean temps by 1/10th of 1 degree. Is this really something that we want to sacrifice time and treasure to do? This all assumes that climate change is due to man caused actions. Never mind the fact that the earths climate is in a constant state of change and anything we do is like pissing in the wind compared to the effects that the sun has on the climate.

The fact of the matter is, that unless we take the United States back to the stone age, cutting carbon emissions by 50% in the time frame proposed is not feasible or practical. That does not mean that we should not look to find ways to produce energy cleaner than we do now and eliminate pollution was much as reasonably possible.
The problem with this is if there isn't any actual effort to limit emissions, the CO2 will continue to rise. It's above 400 ppm now, and the rise is growing. It's feasible that by 2100 it is in the four digits. What this means for the planet isn't exactly known. Seems bad. Changing the composition of the atmosphere isn't ideal.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4727 on: April 30, 2021, 08:54:43 AM »
By 2100 the atmospheric CO2 concentration (the gas responsible for most temperature change) will be between 540 and 970 ppm depending on the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenario (see Figure 1)(For a description of the scenarios, see section at the end of this article called Socio-Economic Scenarios).

Projections for Carbon Dioxide – ACER


This probably would be "bad", in my view, but dinking and dunking by the US is not going to be sufficient.  It's a matter of being honest with the data and setting stretch goals that are realistic, if challenging, AND laying out some estimate of the cost:benefit.

If I framed this as "We need to spend $4 trillion to achieve the goal and it will reduce global T by 0.1°F in 30 years", I think most of us would think "Is that worthwhile?"

That doesn't mean we do NOTHING.  It means we should reevaluate our options.  And be realistic.



Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4728 on: April 30, 2021, 09:06:20 AM »
Let's imagine that Congress passed some impressive climate change bill with lots of spending, a big push to subsidize EVs, shutter coal plants, plant trees, insulate, etc.  OK, fine.  And then we get to 2025 and the goals are not being met, and then 2028, and we're not remotely close to the goal, and then 2030, and perhaps we managed a 20% cut (which might be possible, maybe).

People will understandably wonder if it was all worth it, for an unmeasurable change in climate.

Or, we could be REALISTIC and "listen to the science" and explain we can't do this without nuclear power, it simply is not possible.  It's not a stretch goal, it's just not possible, at all.  Maybe folks then would weight the pros and cons of that option and realize we probably need that route IF we mean to do something serious.  

We'd start by choosing one reactor type and duplicate them, they'd all be the same plan and construction and operation, like France did.  (That won't be easy.)  We  might invest in SMRs and build them seriously in specific locations.  We'd start reprocessing nuclear waste, as France does.  That hugely reduces its mass.

Then, perhaps by 2032 or so, we'd have nukes coming on line replacing coal.  Meanwhile, we'd do what made sense with wind and solar and hydro and thermal.  NG would start to be used primarily for spike needs.  And by 2035 or so, we MIGHT be able to reduce CO2 production from the electricity side by 80-90%.  Maybe.


utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4729 on: April 30, 2021, 09:24:31 AM »
But isn't the alternative plan just not playing golf at all?
No...?

The alternative plan-- one that could actually be successful-- has not been vocalized as of yet. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4730 on: April 30, 2021, 09:28:22 AM »
Whatever personal goals we might set for ourselves is not really material to a national goal such as this one.

Had JFK said he wanted to do it by 1962, people would have laughed, rightly so.  1970 was a stretch goal, but achievable obviously and we knew it if money poured in.

We had sketched several plans, one of which was adopted and followed rather closely.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4731 on: April 30, 2021, 09:58:46 AM »
It's a matter of being honest with the data and setting stretch goals that are realistic, if challenging, AND laying out some estimate of the cost:benefit.
This. This is all I'm asking for.

Why is it so hard to get anything like this out of Washington?

 

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