Author
Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
(Read 522707 times)

Cincydawg · « **Reply #588 on:** August 21, 2018, 06:47:01 PM »

I'd GUESS polyethylene in a landfill would be stable for 1,000 years before degrading into methane. Either way, we don't make enough plastic for this to be a real factor as compared with how much oil and coal we burn.

The figure I saw is that 5-6% of petroleum goes into chemicals, and less than 1% coal.

The rest is burned.

But, yes, plastic in landfill is far from a very long term "expedient".

I like that phrase, a "long term expedient".

Cincydawg · « **Reply #589 on:** August 22, 2018, 08:23:12 AM »

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34872

This is pretty clear about the replacement of coal with NG and impact on CO2 emissions in the US and why they are down significantly since 2010. NG produces about 65% as much CO2 per thermal unit as coal.

"From 2005 to 2017, coal-related CO2 emissions declined by 835 million metric tons (39%), and petroleum-related CO2 emissions declined by 289 million metric tons (11%). Natural gas emissions, however, increased by 285 million metric tons (24%) over that period. The underlying energy consumption trends that resulted in these changes—mainly because more electricity has been generated from natural gas than from other fossil fuels—have helped to lower the U.S. emissions level since 2005 because natural gas is a less carbon-intensive fuel than either coal or petroleum."

Temp430 · « **Reply #590 on:** August 22, 2018, 08:29:27 AM »

China emits over twice as much CO2 as the US.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #591 on:** August 22, 2018, 08:30:57 AM »

So, if magically, all coal burning (other than for steel production) were replaced with NG, the 1200 million metric tons of CO2 would drop to about 800 million tons.

It would be difficult to replace that capacity with "wind and solar" quickly (or nuclear of course).

A crash program to build more nuclear plants to replace all coal fired plants could make a dent in ten years if funded (expensively) and tolerable to the public (not) and based on a single plant design.

There are two new reactors under construction down here, but that is it for nuclear in the US, and old plants are being decommissioned.

The global CO2 emissions are about 40 billion metric tons per year. So, if the US replaced all coal with something carbon neutral, that would drop to about 37.8 billion tons, which isn't enough to offset the growth in global CO2 emissions.

That sort of highlights the main issue here, the shear scale of CO2 emissions globally, and the upward trend that is going to continue despite whatever papers are signed. China and India are supposed to cap by 2030, but that simply isn't nearly enough.

FearlessF · « **Reply #592 on:** October 15, 2018, 02:06:45 PM »

https://apnews.com/3f7f6cab367a489fb41d728f8a69f63b

Increasing bouts of extreme heat waves and drought will hurt production of barley, a key beer ingredient, in the future. Losses of barley yield can be as much as 17 percent, an international group of researchers estimated.

That means beer prices on average would double, even adjusting for inflation, according to the study in Monday’s journal Nature Plants . In countries like Ireland, where cost of a brew is already high, prices could triple.

utee94 · « **Reply #593 on:** October 15, 2018, 02:13:35 PM »

NNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Entropy · « **Reply #594 on:** October 15, 2018, 02:24:05 PM »

well... that will get middle america's attention.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #595 on:** October 15, 2018, 02:36:31 PM »

The wine industry perhaps faces a more serious issue with this. One can in principle ship hops production a bit north to compensate in many cases, but the terroir so influential in wine production may not allow that. Sensitive varietals like pinot noir could just have to be ended in terms of production.

I still sense all these predictions mostly fall on deaf ears.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #596 on:** October 15, 2018, 02:59:05 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 02:06:45 PM

https://apnews.com/3f7f6cab367a489fb41d728f8a69f63b

Increasing bouts of extreme heat waves and drought will hurt production of barley, a key beer ingredient, in the future. Losses of barley yield can be as much as 17 percent, an international group of researchers estimated.

That means beer prices on average would double, even adjusting for inflation, according to the study in Monday’s journal Nature Plants . In countries like Ireland, where cost of a brew is already high, prices could triple.

about 6 years back there was a blight with Hops crop.Micro's price definitely spiked and never returned to the original prices.Brewers never seemed as greedy as the rest of the market,evidently that has changed

FearlessF · « **Reply #597 on:** October 15, 2018, 03:51:51 PM »

hopefully the stock market will rebound before I retire so's I can afford beer

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #598 on:** October 15, 2018, 05:54:13 PM »

Speculative reporting.

They're not saying there's going to be a drought next year and we're all going to pay through the nose for beer.

They're saying that if you run through a bunch of climate change models, some of them result in drought and extreme heat scenarios which affect barley production, and thus beer prices.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0263-1

Abstract:

Quote

Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions.

It suggests that even if there is a change, we're talking about long-term adjustment periods. It might just mean that we get more malted barley from Canada.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #599 on:** October 15, 2018, 06:06:35 PM »

Well if 94,Fearless,Bwarb and myself go on the wagon we'll bring these bastards around.OK you guys go 1st

FearlessF · « **Reply #600 on:** October 15, 2018, 08:01:18 PM »

it's a scare tactic, but I ain't scared

Fearless is having another beer while watching the Brew Crew battle the Dodgers

It was 28 degrees here this morning

MrNubbz · « **Reply #601 on:** October 15, 2018, 08:40:21 PM »

I just had a Winter Warmer left over from last year,fine suds

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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

Cincydawg

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

Cincydawg

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

Temp430

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

Cincydawg

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

FearlessF

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

utee94

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

Entropy

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

Cincydawg

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

MrNubbz

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

FearlessF

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

MrNubbz

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

FearlessF

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment

MrNubbz

Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment