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Well, some of us have been ready for this longer than others but all except PU and M fans are now ready. What do we think of the 2018-2019 BB season . . .
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What is the schedule structure with regards to who plays once, twice, etc?
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I think UW is going to be pretty good next year, if Happ comes back. He is testing the waters right now, so we'll see.
They seemed to put it together in the last month this past season, and they get two players back from injury, plus one transfer who sat out this past season. There will be two point guards on the roster, compared to none this year, so that's a big plus.
Reuvers is going to get stronger, which showed this year, and an offseason with UW's trainers will do that. Davison can get his shoulder fixed up, which will help him as he continues to learn and grow.
As mentioned up-thread, Andy Van Vliet left the program so now another 'ship is open and available for a quality grad transfer.
The starting 5 will look like this, subject to a grad transfer:
PG: Trice
SG: Davison
C: Happ
F: Ivarson
F: Reuvers
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From ELA:
As for next year, MSU should take a step back, but who knows. The fact that MSU's lone Final 4 team in the last 6 years is probably the worst team they fielded in that stretch prevents me from dealing in absolutes. I'm assuming Bridges and Jackson are gone. Carter, Nairn and Schilling graduate. Rumors are Ward is sort of done, but I don't see any way he gets drafted. He's not what the NBA wants in a big anymore. We'll see if smarter heads prevail.
I would think they should still be a tourney team, anything beyond that is gravy. Off the top of my head, McQuaid was the only junior, so presumably 2019-20 should be a strong year.
With or without Wagner, next year Michigan should be the very heavy favorite.
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What is the schedule structure with regards to who plays once, twice, etc?
We go to 20 conference games right? Keep that random week of early December conference games, but without the early tourney?
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Holtmann is saying the right things about putting together a more challenging non-Conference schedule that will be fun for the fans, ie: playing the in-State basketball schools.
Of course Thad came out of the gate saying the same things, and it never really happened. There was one neutral site game against Cincinnati in Indianapolis when OSU had Odin and Conley while Cincinnati was rolling out a JuCo all star team in the aftermath of the Huggins canning. After that beat down was administered things went back to the way they were before, only with the occasional Ohio Mac/Horizon cupcake instead of some school that no one has ever heard of.
So I am looking forward to seeing what Holtmann comes up with.
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To echo what 847 said, it'll be nice for UW to have actual depth next year, instead of six rotation guys before walk-ons. The roster is a little unbalanced with a lot of guard and only a few frontcourt guys. I'm intrigued how things shake out and if there's someone else to add. Badgers obviously played better down the stretch, and I'm guessing it'll be a NCAA team, but maybe not with the highest ceiling.
What they've got
PG: Trice, a small point they missed after he got hurt. I think his game has some holes, but I think the guy next to him complements well
SG: Davison, he's a combo guard who had some really nice highs this year despite the shoulder. UW 2s tend to be complementary shooters. I'm thinking he's the chips-are-down creator.
SF: Iverson, by the end of the year he was considered a perimeter stopper. That' good because his offense is limited and occasionally frustrating. He plays a lot, and that usually means it'll continue, but I'm interested if they go away from him sharing the floor with Happ some.
PF: Reuvers, he represents a high level of hope for UW. I think he'll be a good big at some point. What he gives next year is up in the air. He gets compared to Jon Leuer some, and sophomore Leuer was very up and down. If he's reliable, that'll be huge because he's really UW's only other center option.
C: Happ, kid's a star and will be missed in two seasons.
Bench
Pritzl - Grew into the standard high-efficiency UW 2-guard, give or take some defense. I expect him to play a LOT
Aleem Ford - Guy was basically a 3-point specialist who didn't do much else as a 6-foot-8 combo forward. I hope there's a little more offensive diversity, much better defense and the ability to be a consistent backup four in a what looks like a potential 3-man rotation at the 4/5.
Kobe King - A wing with decent size, defensive potential and shooting ability (and a good bit of scoring skill from the HS level, I think) who was hurt most of the year. Some folks have REALLY high hopes for him. I'm holding at a guy who can space the floor and chip in here and there.
Beyond them are a pair of underachieving forwards (Illikainen, Charlie Thomas) and interesting walk-on transfer guard in Trevor Anderson and a couple freshman bigs who should redshirt.
What I'm watching
Lineups - UW has a lot of guards and not much reliable in the frontcourt. Do they go small? Who wins the backcourt minutes battles as players stratify?
Reuvers/Ford - Reuvers showed potential, but there's a lot riding on year 1 to year 2 growth. I'm a little gunshy in saying the added strength will get him quite where some hope. Ford just needs to round stuff out a little. Just be a little more reliable/defensively there.
The Iverson factor - With his offense, I could see him slip as UW will have Happ out a lot and UW likes four-shooter lineups. It probably won't happen, but there've been message board rumblings.
Grad transfer - If there's a lower-usage stretch big who can play a little five, please sign up. I saw they we're after a high-usage 6-6 guy who can shoot. That would be interesting...
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What is the schedule structure with regards to who plays once, twice, etc?
Since the addition of RU and UMD we have had 18 games per season and thus each team played:
- Five teams home and away
- Four teams home only
- Four teams away only
Next year we will have 20 games and thus each team will play:
- Seven teams home and away
- Three teams home only
- Three teams away only
The conference has stipulated that the in-state rivals will play every year, that is:
- Illinois/Northwestern
- Indiana/Purdue
- Michigan State/Michigan
By comparison, in 2017-2018 Illinois/Northwestern played only in Evanston, Indiana/Purdue played only in Bloomington, and MSU/M played only in East Lansing.
There is also a regional component and, according to the conference's site, over each six year cycle it will work as follows:
- In-state rivals will play 12 times
- Regional opponents will play 10 times
- All other teams will play nine times
I do not see a list of the "regional opponents" on the B1G site and, AFAIK, the 2018-2019 schedule has not yet been released.
The new schedule should be a big improvement IMHO. Last year it seemed that there was a serious lack of games among the better teams in the league. Here is a list of the teams that finished above .500 in the B1G and the fellow >.500 teams that they only played once:
- 16-2 Michigan State: Michigan(H), Nebraska(H), PU(H), tOSU(A)
- 15-3 Purdue: Nebraska(H), tOSU(H), MSU(A)
- 15-3 Ohio State: MSU(H), Nebraska(H), PU(A)
- 13-5 Michigan: MSU(A), Nebraska(A)
- 13-5 Nebraska: Michigan(H), MSU(A), tOSU(A), PU(A)
The Spartans and Cornhuskers only played the other four >.500 teams once each while the Boilermakers and Buckeyes played only Michigan twice. Even Michigan only played half of the other >.500 teams twice.
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The new schedule should be a big improvement IMHO. Last year it seemed that there was a serious lack of games among the better teams in the league. Here is a list of the teams that finished above .500 in the B1G and the fellow >.500 teams that they only played once:
- 16-2 Michigan State: Michigan(H), Nebraska(H), PU(H), tOSU(A)
- 15-3 Purdue: Nebraska(H), tOSU(H), MSU(A)
- 15-3 Ohio State: MSU(H), Nebraska(H), PU(A)
- 13-5 Michigan: MSU(A), Nebraska(A)
- 13-5 Nebraska: Michigan(H), MSU(A), tOSU(A), PU(A)
The Spartans and Cornhuskers only played the other four >.500 teams once each while the Boilermakers and Buckeyes played only Michigan twice. Even Michigan only played half of the other >.500 teams twice.
Adding in the three teams that finished .500 or within one game of .500:
- 9-9 Penn State: Michigan(H), Indiana(A), MSU(A), PU(A)
- 9-9 Indiana: PSU(H), PU(H), M(A), Nebraska(A)
- 8-10 Maryland: Indiana(A), Nebraska(A), tOSU(A)
Last year was particularly bad but the 5/4/4 set-up lent itself to this sort of thing much more than the new 7/3/3 set-up will.
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Bucks should field a competent team, though I'm skeptical they will be as good as this year.
https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-basketball/2018/03/91932/chris-holtmanns-second-season-at-ohio-state-will-feature-fresh-faces-new-look-lineup
Basically, while Kaleb Wesson should still be a good force inside, it's hard to tell where points on the perimeter will come from. Andre Wesson isn't much of a shooter, Kyle Young didn't play much, and I don't expect CJ Jackson to drastically improve. Possible a freshman like Muhammad comes in a lights it up, but also possible he doesn't. Without a KBD type to make defenses commit to stopping a guy, not much room for everyone else to operate. That said, they should be fine defensively.
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Maybe the "regional opponents" mirror the football divisions?
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Maybe the "regional opponents" mirror the football divisions?
To a certain extent they probably will, but it can't be exact. It is also complicated by the fact that the eight schools without an in-state rival need more regional rivals than the six schools with an in-state rival.
Ie:
Per the Conference website, in a six year cycle each team will play:
- In-State rivals 12 times (twice each year, no exceptions)
- Regional opponents 10 times (twice each year for four years and once each for two years)
- All other teams nine times (twice three years and once three years)
Running the math:
- In a six year cycle each team needs 120 opponents
The six teams WITH in-state rivals will play:
- Their in-state rival 12 times
- That leaves 108 slots to fill with the other 12 teams where x*10+(12-x)*9=108
- When you solve that equation, x=0 so the teams WITH an in-state rival have NO regional rivals
Thus, teams WITH an in-state rival will get to 120 games in six years as follows:
- 12 games against their in-state rival
- 108 games against the other 12 teams (9*12=108)
- 120 total games
The eight teams WITHOUT in-state rivals will play:
- The other 13 teams where x*10+(13-x)*9=120
- When you solve that equation, x=3 so the teams WITHOUT an in-state rival will each have three "regional" rivals
Thus, teams WITHOUT an in-state rival will get to 120 games in six years as follows:
- 30 games against their three regional rivals (3*10)
- 90 games against the other 10 teams in the conference (10*9)
- 120 total games
This also means that the teams WITH in-state rivals will not be regional rivals of ANY school.
This would effectively force Ohio State's regional rivals to be the three Eastern schools (PSU, RU, UMD). Four of the five teams in adjacent states (M, MSU, IU, PU) already have in-state rivals and are thus exempt. The other one is Penn State. Additionally, other than the Eastern schools the next closest (geographically) to Columbus are the two Illinois schools but they obviously already have in-state rivals as well.
Therefore, I assume that the eight teams without in-state rivals would be grouped into a Western group of UNL, UW, MN, and IA and an Eastern group of RU, UMD, PSU, and tOSU.
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That makes sense.
So each football division has three teams with in-State rivals, and the other four teams will constitute the "regional" rivals.
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If you couldn't tell, I figured that all out as I was typing it sorry it is a bit convoluted.
The short version is that in the new schedule set-up the schools will play:
The Six teams WITH in-state rivals (M, MSU, IU, PU, IL, NU) will play:
- Their in-state rival twice every year
- The other 12 teams in the conference twice every other year and once in the other years.
The four Western teams (UNL, MN, IA, UW) will play:
- Each other twice four years out of six, and once two years out of six
- The other ten teams in the conference twice every other year and once in the other years.
The four Eastern teams (tOSU, PSU, UMD, RU) will play:
- Each other twice four years out of six and once two years out of six
- The other ten teams in the conference twice every other year and once in the other years.
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That makes sense.
So each football division has three teams with in-State rivals, and the other four teams will constitute the "regional" rivals.
I'm glad it made sense to you because I typed it and it barely made sense to me, LoL.
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Time for PSU to step up next year. Be nice to see a good showing now in NYC. If Carr comes back, PSU is in prime position to make a move in the conference. Time to step up the non-con scheduling and play like it.
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Will be curious if Carr, Bates-Diop, and Wagner are early entrant's? It could shape the outlook of the conference to some extent. The "always trustworthy" mock drafts have Bates-Diop and Carr as late first rounder's right now. Wagner is an early to mid 2nd rounder. I am a little surprised by Mo's projection. I see him a bit like I saw Kaminsky.
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Will be curious if Carr, Bates-Diop, and Wagner are early entrant's? It could shape the outlook of the conference to some extent. The "always trustworthy" mock drafts have Bates-Diop and Carr as late first rounder's right now. Wagner is an early to mid 2nd rounder. I am a little surprised by Mo's projection. I see him a bit like I saw Kaminsky.
They'll all declare, but I have a feeling at least one or two wont' hire an agent and will eventually come back. Carr and B-D are sure fire first rounders the following year if they come back and have good 18-19 years. I'm not sure I think any are 'ready' for the Association yet; is it worth taking the risk of being a second rounder if you're that borderline?
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FWIW, NBADraft.net has all 3 going, Wagner late 1st, Carr with the first pick of the 2nd, and KBP early in the 2nd.
I don't like the whole "improve your stock" argument. It doesn't happen any more often than your stock going down. My thought is always, first round pick, then go. You likely won't be any higher next year. Bridges and Wagner both opted to return, and both are exactly where they would have been a year ago, except now with a year less of income in their careers.
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FWIW, NBADraft.net has all 3 going, Wagner late 1st, Carr with the first pick of the 2nd, and KBP early in the 2nd.
I don't like the whole "improve your stock" argument. It doesn't happen any more often than your stock going down. My thought is always, first round pick, then go. You likely won't be any higher next year. Bridges and Wagner both opted to return, and both are exactly where they would have been a year ago, except now with a year less of income in their careers.
I think stock can absolutely go up and down depending on who else is in that draft vs the next one. Carr's the 10th best PG at best in this draft, he might be a Top 5 guy next year.
Agree if you're a sure 1st rounder, you go. But PG's are hard to come by in that league and I think Carr could absolutely help himself with another year of strength conditioning, getting his body ready and have that guaranteed contract instead of the possibility of being a 2nd round, non guaranteed guy.
I think that's exactly why they put the system in place that allows them to scoot back to college in case they don't tear up the pre-draft combine (or camps or whatever) and they find out they are on the edge.
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Mike Conley went from a projected 4 year player to a freshman lottery pick after one good Tourney run.
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I think stock can absolutely go up and down depending on who else is in that draft vs the next one. Carr's the 10th best PG at best in this draft, he might be a Top 5 guy next year.
Agree if you're a sure 1st rounder, you go. But PG's are hard to come by in that league and I think Carr could absolutely help himself with another year of strength conditioning, getting his body ready and have that guaranteed contract instead of the possibility of being a 2nd round, non guaranteed guy.
I think that's exactly why they put the system in place that allows them to scoot back to college in case they don't tear up the pre-draft combine (or camps or whatever) and they find out they are on the edge.
I'm not saying you can't. I'm just saying I've seen no evidence that you are any more likely to move up than you are to move down. Football makes sense a lot of time, a year more strength, a year more technique. The NBA just draft off potential. They'd almost prefer you not be a year older. If you want to go back, go back. But if it's because you want to improve your draft stock, meh. And the whole "next years class is weaker" line is used every single year. Because it's a sport where guys go from high schoolers that most people have never heard of, to lottery picks in a year. So next year's class always looks weaker, because you have no idea who anyone is. Everyone was saying last year that the 2017 Draft was loaded, but 2018 was weak, so Bridges would move from 10-12 into top 3-5 just based on who he was up against. Now this looks like one of the better drafts in recent years.
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Looking at Ohio State next year:
Tate, Dakich, and Williams are Seniors so they are definitely gone:
- Tate averaged 12.3 points, 6.2 boards, and 2.9 assists in just under 30 minutes per game.
- Dakich averaged 3 points, 1.8 boards, and 2.1 assists in 19 minutes per game.
- Williams averaged 9 points, 2.1 boards, and 0.8 assists in just under 24 minutes per game.
- Combined they averaged 24.3 points, 10.1 boards, and 5.8 assists in about 73 minutes per game.
My gut feel is that Tate's, Dakich's, and Williams' contributions can be more than made up for with typical year-over-year improvement from the younger guys and freshman contributions. Thus, if KBD comes back I expect the team to improve at least slightly and I would view anything less than a S16 as a disappointment.
On the other hand, if KBD leaves then the team will need to replace a total of about 44.1 points, 18.8 boards, and 7.4 assists in about 106 minutes per game and I doubt that will be possible. Without KBD I expect a drop-off and my goal would simply be to make the tournament.
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It’s rare to see guys move up these days. The NBA draft is picking so much on potential that if you stay for another year or two and fall off that perceived progression forecast you will slide or stay flat. For any of the three mentioned if a 1st round grade is likely its hard to see them improving on that in any significant way with another year.
If you want to do it because you like college and want to take another run at a conference or tournament championship that is fine, but the eyes better be open to lost earning potential.
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It’s rare to see guys move up these days. The NBA draft is picking so much on potential that if you stay for another year or two and fall off that perceived progression forecast you will slide or stay flat. For any of the three mentioned if a 1st round grade is likely its hard to see them improving on that in any significant way with another year.
If you want to do it because you like college and want to take another run at a conference or tournament championship that is fine, but the eyes better be open to lost earning potential.
Exactly
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Miles either had or is having a 1x1 with the AD to outline his 5 year plan... I guess we will see what happens after that meeting. I was in Lincoln the past few days and the locals seem convinced UNL is going to lose at least 2 players. UNL will need more talent transfers to remain relevant.
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Bates-Diop going pro
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22916723/ohio-state-buckeyes-forward-keita-bates-diop-enter-nba-draft
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Bates-Diop going pro
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22916723/ohio-state-buckeyes-forward-keita-bates-diop-enter-nba-draft
Assume with an agent?
Didn't realize he's 22. No way on earth he should come back.
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Assume with an agent?
Didn't realize he's 22. No way on earth he should come back.
I certainly can't blame him but it really puts a damper on my expectation for Ohio State next year. A lot can change between now and mid-November but at this point my goal for the season is for the Buckeyes to make the tournament. I see that as iffy and anything beyond that would be gravy.
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Michael Finke also leaving Illinois. Illini rebuild seems to be starting over all over again next year.
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Michael Finke also leaving Illinois. Illini rebuild seems to be starting over all over again next year.
TeJon Lucas too
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Underwood cleaning house, or shall I say Creaning house?
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OSU and Minnesota kicking the tires on Pitt PG Marcus Carr, who was the one player Stallings brought in worth a damn. Don't see any reason for a waiver, so he wouldn't be eligible until 2019-20.
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UW picked up a commit from 2018 PG Tai Strickland today. I think he's got a shot to play this coming year, if not start. We'll see.
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Miles Bridges going pro, no surprise
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Maryland's Justin Jackson declaring for the draft and hiring an agent per DraftExpress
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OSU and Minnesota kicking the tires on Pitt PG Marcus Carr, who was the one player Stallings brought in worth a damn. Don't see any reason for a waiver, so he wouldn't be eligible until 2019-20.
Is he definitely gone from Pitt? Heard a few of the kids who requested releases/transfers decided to stick around when Capel was announced.
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Is he definitely gone from Pitt? Heard a few of the kids who requested releases/transfers decided to stick around when Capel was announced.
I heard only 2 withdrew their requests, and he wasn't one of thrm. That was yesterday, and Capel didn't meat with the team til today, with individual meetings starting tomorrow. So I imagine a couple more will stay.
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Justin Jackson from Maryland declares, and he will have an agent.
There have been a handful of those that are going to test the waters without an agent as well. Two for Nebraska and Edwards for Purdue, but I don't know how meaningful that news is.
For Michigan, if Mo were to stay, they would have to do something about a scholarship next year. I suppose one of the current five signees could gray-shirt or do prep school for a year. A couple are raw and young for their grade. There is a distant possibility of transfer out, but that is unlikely. Your most likely suspects would be Brooks, Watson, Davis, and they are all getting spot minutes and really just starting to the development curve with Beilein.
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Maryland's Justin Jackson declaring for the draft and hiring an agent per DraftExpress
And Cowan transferring
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Nick Ward now too. No agent though. Don’t know what kind of market there is for a 6’8 banger with range from 10 ft in. He’s aN NBA defensive matchup liability and will have trouble scoring. Rumors of a rift with the cos hung staff might be the main driver here. I don’t see anything better than being an undrwfted free agent though.
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Nick Ward now too. No agent though. Don’t know what kind of market there is for a 6’8 banger with range from 10 ft in. He’s aN NBA defensive matchup liability and will have trouble scoring. Rumors of a rift with the cos hung staff might be the main driver here. I don’t see anything better than being an undrwfted free agent though.
The way it is now, declaring without an agent isn't even a story. I'm surprised every even borderline player doesn't do it.
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Rutgers' Corey Sanders declares, and will hire an agent.
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The Big Ten is starting to look like it's gonna be weak next season.
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I am very skeptical of some of these going the route with an agent. They do understand that there are only two rounds right? And first round is the only guaranteed money? And that the modern draft will likely have an influx of international guys taking up spots too?
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Purdue adds Dartmouth transfer Evan Boudreaux, who averaged 17.5 ppg and 9.5 rpg last year. Really nice, and much needed pickup with 4 senior starters graduating.
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UW picked up a commit from 2018 PG Tai Strickland today. I think he's got a shot to play this coming year, if not start. We'll see.
Start? That would be quite ambitious.
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Start? That would be quite ambitious.
No question, but it's possible. Gard has shown that he'll put in a youngster over an upperclassman if the kid can play.
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That led me to look up Rod Strickland, and while I remember him being a good player, he had a run from about 94-98 that was far better than I would have guessed he had. Averaged a double-double to go along with 5.3 rpg in '98 with the Wizards.
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He was a bit of a head case for DePaul and I think for some NBA teams before he got his shit together.
Hopefully the kid is of clear mind. It would make sense that he is, given how UW is so selective on character.
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Tony Carr to decide in 'next week or so' about the NBA draft. My guess is he declares but doesn't hire an agent.
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Purdue got a really nice grad transfer in Evan Boudreaux out of Dartmouth. I was hoping he'd look at W, but nope. Great pickup for PU.
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Purdue adds Dartmouth transfer Evan Boudreaux, who averaged 17.5 ppg and 9.5 rpg last year. Really nice, and much needed pickup with 4 senior starters graduating.
Purdue got a really nice grad transfer in Evan Boudreaux out of Dartmouth. I was hoping he'd look at W, but nope. Great pickup for PU.
You don't say? ;)
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Oops.
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The way it is now, declaring without an agent isn't even a story. I'm surprised every even borderline player doesn't do it.
Yeah it's usually a 100% non-story. However this one seemed different given the statement he posted online. It read as if he has already crossed an emotional barrier about leaving. Most players' statements sound equivocal or "just checking because obviously but I'm not leaning that way" when they announce w/o an agent.
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I think most MSU fans actually thought the chances of him returning were lower than they should be anyway. He's not a kid who seems to enjoy coaching, and his limitations aren't going to change. He's a traditional big, who isn't that big, trying to get into a league that has very few players that still play that way, and those that do, are much taller than he is. I don't think he's going to like what the scouts say, but I'm not sure they'll like him any more in two years. If he's going to Europe anyway, maybe he'd rather just go now.
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And Cowan transferring
That's twice I've seen this.
Wiley is transferring.
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Jaren Jackson going pro. No shock, should be a top 5 pick.
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Tony Carr gone and hiring an agent too?
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UW back in the top-4 to start a new streak is looking more and more likely every day.
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I think most MSU fans actually thought the chances of him returning were lower than they should be anyway. He's not a kid who seems to enjoy coaching, and his limitations aren't going to change. He's a traditional big, who isn't that big, trying to get into a league that has very few players that still play that way, and those that do, are much taller than he is. I don't think he's going to like what the scouts say, but I'm not sure they'll like him any more in two years. If he's going to Europe anyway, maybe he'd rather just go now.
I've heard that. Though if he does come back, I'd be quick to expect he'll stay through graduation. That's something that only MSU (excluding the infinitesimal chance of a college transfer) can give him. Otherwise, yes, Europe.
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Welcome Michigan fans. Who is leaving, who returns, etc?
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ESPN waited about 3 seconds to release their preseason rankings, which have MSU #11, UM #12 and Purdue #24. They seem to be assuming Ward and Edwards return, Wagner leaves.
Even if that happens, I'd make Michigan the prohibitive favorite next year. Behind them, who knows? Conference should be deeper next year, but without the top end talent. Behind Michigan, I have no idea. I think there are a bunch of teams that could be anywhere from #2 through about #7
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ESPN waited about 3 seconds to release their preseason rankings, which have MSU #11, UM #12 and Purdue #24. They seem to be assuming Ward and Edwards return, Wagner leaves.
Even if that happens, I'd make Michigan the prohibitive favorite next year. Behind them, who knows? Conference should be deeper next year, but without the top end talent. Behind Michigan, I have no idea. I think there are a bunch of teams that could be anywhere from #2 through about #7
Recap...
ESPN: #11 MSU, #12 UM, #24 PU
Yahoo: #9 MSU, #12 UM, #25 UW
AP: #11 MSU, #14 UM, #19 UMD
CBS: #11 MSU, #17 UMD, #23 UM, #26 PU
I'm not seeing where MSU should be preseason #1 next year
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Illinois picked up Tevian Jones today. Nice wing with some size.
2 scholarships still open for 2018
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Happ declared today but will not hire an agent. Yawn.
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The confetti has barely hit the floor in San Antonio, but that hasn’t stopped the Big Ten Network from putting out its power rankings for the 2018-19 basketball season.
The good news for Nebraska fans is that they didn’t have to read too long to find the Huskers. The Big Ten Network’s Tom Dienhart has Nebraska No. 3 on his predicted order of finish in the Big Ten next year, right behind Michigan and Michigan State.
There’s of course a big caveat — assuming the Huskers get James Palmer Jr., and Isaac Copeland back after they test the NBA waters.
Dienhart writes:
“If Isaac Copeland Jr. and James Palmer Jr. return after testing the NBA draft waters, the Cornhuskers could earn that NCAA bid that eluded them in 2017-18 and enjoy an upper-division finish. But how will Tim Miles deal with big expectations? Glynn Watson is a nice veteran and Isaiah Roby is breakout star to monitor.”
Certainly the keys are Copeland and Palmer, who put their names in for NBA Draft consideration, but have not hired agents. Both players have until May 30 to withdraw their names to maintain their NCAA eligibility.
The Huskers will add 2018 signees in center Brady Heiman, point guard Xavier Johnson, while guard Karrington Davis will sign a letter of intent this spring.
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Bart Torvik has updated his site with this season's tourney results. A cool stat he tracks is "PASE" (performance against seed expectations). PAKE (performance against KenPom expectations) is intriguing, too.
http://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?conlimit=&yrlow=2011&yrhigh=2018&type=team&sort=18
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FWIW, Lunardi opens with MSU as a 2, which is actually higher than he had them in his initial 2017-18 version.
He's seeing a bounceback season at least in terms of depth for the conference with 7 teams in (#2 MSU, #3 Michigan, #6 OSU, #7 Purdue, #9 Nebraska, #10 Maryland, #11 PSU) and 2 teams in the Next Four Out (UW, IU)
Only Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, Minnesota and Northwestern out of the NCAA mix.
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Bart Torvik has updated his site with this season's tourney results. A cool stat he tracks is "PASE" (performance against seed expectations). PAKE (performance against KenPom expectations) is intriguing, too.
http://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?conlimit=&yrlow=2011&yrhigh=2018&type=team&sort=18
I thought this was very interesting. Some notes (over dude's 2011-2018 timeframe):
The B1G is second with a PAKE of 4.0 and a PASE of 7.6. We trail the SEC but none of the other major conferences are in the top-5. It goes:
- SEC, 14.2: 59-35
- B1G, 7.6: 78-50
- MVC, 5.7: 17-12
- Horizon, 3.3: 5-8
- CAA, 2.1: 6-10
- ACC, 1.9: 83-48
- ASun, 1.5: 3-8
- MAC, 0.9: 2-8
- CUSA, 0.8: 5-9
- P12, 0.7: 39-31
The other two major conferences are last and second-to-last among conferences on the PASE metric.
Among B1G teams (sorted by and displayed with PASE):
- #3 Michigan, 6.5: 16-7
- #5 Wisconsin, 5.5: 17-7
- #37 Illinois, 0.5: 2-2
- #48 Northwestern, 0.3: 1-1
- #51 Iowa, 0.2: 2-2
- #56 Ohio State, 0.1: 11-6
- #57 Michigan State, 0.0: 13-8
- #144 Indiana, -0.6: 6-4
- #146 Nebraska, -0.6: 0-1
- #148 Penn State, -0.6: 0-1
- #153 Minnesota, -0.7: 1-2
- #156 Maryland, -0.8: 3-3
- #182 Purdue, -2.1: 6-6
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Rutgers is not on the list, I'm pretty sure they haven't been in the tournament in the allotted timeframe. What this says is that, over the past eight tournaments, Michigan State roughly broke even with expectations based on their seed. The six teams above them did better than expected. Michigan did a LOT better while Ohio State did barely better. The six teams below them did worse than expected. Purdue did a LOT worse than expected while Indiana did barely worse.
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Since 2002, the Big Ten is #1 is PASE...by a lot. I wouldn't predict that to be due to any "tournament magic" we have but due to being underseeded in general. That's a common complaint around here, which doesn't make this true, but it is interesting.
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Speaking of convenient cutoff points...
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Speaking of convenient cutoff points...
I just used the 2011-2018 that dude presented it with. Eight years is a bit of an odd cut-off.
For 10 years (2009-2018) we are still #2 behind the SEC.
The database only goes back to 2002 so dude's "since 2002" isn't a convenient cut-off point, it is simply all the information the site presents.
For those 17 years (2002-2018) the B1G is, as dude stated, is #1 by a large margin. The Horizon is #2 and the SEC is #3. The only other major conference in the top-10 is the P12 at #7.
Looking at teams for that entire stretch:
- #1 UCONN, 11.7: 32-8
- #2 Butler, 11.1: 21-11
- #3 Kentucky, 9.1: 39-14
- #4 Michigan State, 9.1: 32-17
- #5 North Carolina, 8.7: 43-11
- #6 Florida, 8.0: 31-11
- #7 Michigan, 6.9: 17-8
- #8 Wisconsin, 6.6: 29-16
- #9 Syracuse, 6.5: 27-11
- #10 UCLA, 5.9: 23-12
- #18 Indiana, 2.6: 14-9
- #26 Maryland, 1.6: 15-8
- #43 Illinois, 0.8: 13-9
- #66 Northwestern, 0.3: 1-1
- #92 Purdue, -0.0: 13-11
- #176 Nebraska, -0.6: 0-1
- #177 Penn State, -0.6: 0-1
- #201 Ohio State, -1.3: 20-11
- #218 Iowa, -2.3: 2-4
- #229 Minnesota, -2.7: 1-5
It is a bit of an odd metric because it is measuring performance relative to seed. The "ranking" therefore is not at all a ranking of which team was the best over that stretch. I'd take Ohio State (20-11) over Michigan (17-8) but I'd take Wisconsin (29-16) over both of them.
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I just used the 2011-2018 that dude presented it with. Eight years is a bit of an odd cut-off.
It is. It would only make sense if something happened nine AND ten years ago that changes his narrative.
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It is. It would only make sense if something happened nine AND ten years ago that changes his narrative.
Unless he simply chose to look at this by decade?
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Yeah, I never meant for 2011 to begin the stretch we used. Those years were apparently embedded in the URL that I shared. As for why I was checking out those years: Because that's when Beilein finally had a roster of only his guys, and I was curious.
It's as arbitrary as any incomplete timeframe, but I didn't mean for it to be part of an argument.
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Alright, Purdue... Big offseason here...
Obviously we're graduating 4 big-minute seniors. With Carsen Edwards declaring for the draft, although I think he'll drop out of the draft and come back, being a potential 5th major contributor gone. So I'll look at what's missing, with the number for the seniors to the left and the number including the loss of Carsen in parentheses to the right.
What we're losing:
Minutes per game: 114.3 / 57% - (143.8 / 72%)
Points per game: 48.8 / 61% - (67.3 / 84%)
Rebounds per game: 19 / 54% - (22.8 / 65%)
Assists per game: 9.3 / 58% - (12.1 / 76%)
Clearly without the 4 seniors, we're losing well over half the production of the team. If Carsen goes pro--again I think he'll return for his Jr year--we're losing 75%+ of the production.
So let's assume Carsen is staying. He played 29.5 MPG, was our leading scorer by 4 PPG, and was the only person on the team that was really able to be the "spark" and create a shot for himself. He wasn't voted an All-American for nothing. That means the 2018-19 Boilermakers are undoubtedly "his team".
Coming back around him we have the following:
Proven Contributors
Matt Haarms - RS So 7'3" 250# Center - Haarms is no Isaac Haas, but Haas was also no Matt Haarms. Haarms came in as a project, and proved as a freshman that he was far more polished than anyone expected. He played 17.1 MPG (largely due to Haas, being so big, needing more rest than the other seniors), contributed 2.1 BPG, but otherwise didn't entirely fill the stat sheet. 4.8 PPG in 17 minutes showed that he wasn't a key cog in the offense, but he was serviceable. Haarms is much more athletic than Haas and could potentially be a "stretch 5" or even a "stretch 4" if Purdue finds a serviceable big man to clog up the lane. But Haarms is going to need to make a big jump in the offseason if he's going to be "the guy" at Center. He seems to be more of a PnR guy than a back-to-the-basket big, so Purdue is going to have to adjust their offensive gameplan compared to what they did in the Hammons/Biggie/Haas era of the last 6 years.
Ryan Cline - Sr 6'6" 195# SG - Cline has largely lived in Dakota Mathias' shadow much of his career, as Mathias was just too valuable to the team to pull off the floor. Cline is a sharpshooter, with 101 3PA last year and only 28 2PA. And he doesn't get to the line. He had 6 FTA last season. It's so few that in the Cal State Fullerton NCAA game, after Haas' injury the CSUF coach picked Cline to shoot FT, because even though Nojel Eastern was shooting <50% from the stripe, he must have assumed Cline didn't know hot to shoot a free throw or something! That said, Cline has been working on his strength, his defense, and his game in general. He'll be the most seasoned guy on the team other than Carsen, and is expected to get some serious minutes.
Nojel Eastern - So 6'6" 220# PG - Eastern rounds out the 2017-18 main rotation players. Beyond him, Grady Eifert (preferred walk-on) got some run as Vince Edwards back-up, but Eifert played out of necessity while Eastern was truly being developed for next year. He got about 12.6 MPG, and his biggest contribution was defense. Being long, strong, and pretty athletic, he did a good job defending some of the players that PJ Thompson (5'10" 185#) simply wasn't able to handle. Overall, he actually showed quite a lot for a freshman, but he's going to have to make a major step up next season if the Boilers are going to do anything.
Known Quantities
Grady Eifert - 6'6" 220# Sr F - Grady is the brother of Tyler Eifert, TE from Notre Dame now with the Bengals. Eifert is a preferred walk-on, but has actually played some minutes out of necessity. He's tough, one of those guys who seems to do what he does purely out of will and BBIQ. He put in 8.3 MPG behind Vince Edwards as there was no serviceable 4 behind Vince, and generally was not a liability to the team when he was out there. I expect he'll continue to get some minutes next year, because everyone else that could play the 4 is going to be incredibly raw.
Jacquil Taylor - RS Sr 6'10" 240# Center - Taylor has for years been the guy who we all said "wait until he gets healthy and breaks out!" Injuries, mostly lower extremity injuries, have hampered him his entire career, though. He's also got some athleticism, does a pretty good job of crashing the boards, but his offensive game is a big unknown. He simply hasn't played enough to know what we have with him, and he has to be able to survive a season without injury to find out. I listed him as a RS Sr, but it's possible that he could get granted a 6th year by the NCAA after this year and he might have 2 seasons left.
Unknown Returners
Sasha Stefanovic - 6'4" 195# RS Fr SG - There are a lot of people high on Sasha for next year. He clearly wasn't going to get a lot of court time this year behind Mathias and Cline, not to mention Carsen, so he ended up redshirting. Generally everyone I've talked to says he's more athletic than Mathias/Cline, and can fill up the basket from anywhere on the court. Beyond that, he's pretty much unknown. Not sure how well he plays defense, or frankly anything else, because he didn't get any minutes. I do expect he's going to get some run, though, as Painter likes to have shooters on the floor and Sasha is undoubtedly that.
Aaron Wheeler - 6'9" 200# RS Fr F/Wing - Wheeler is an athletic freak. He's been described as the guy who "can jump out of the gym". He's got the height for the 4 and the athleticism to play the 3/Wing, so he might be a very versatile player for Purdue. Why did he redshirt, then, on a team that could have used an athlete to back up Vince when all they had was Eifert? Well, because he just wasn't ready for prime time. Let's hope he does something.
Incoming
Evan Boudreaux - 6'8" 220# Jr* F - Coming as a grad transfer with [I think] 2 years eligibility remaining, Boudreaux fills a position of serious need with Vince Edwards graduating. Boudreaux put in 17.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG last season at Dartmouth, and although he'll be going up a level of competition in the B1G, he's expected to be an instant impact guy. He can shoot the ball, too, so he may be able to stretch the floor in a way very similar to Vince, but with much better rebounding impact (which was a point of worry for the Boilers this year).
Trevion Williams - 6'8" 250# Fr F/C - Williams wants to be like Biggie. Seriously, that's who he wants to play like style-wise, intensity-wise, and [thankfully] rebounding-wise. As a Jr in HS, he was averaging 22 PPG and 25 (!) RPG. How ready is he for the college game? Well, we don't really know.
Eric Hunter - 6'3" 170# Fr Combo Guard - Hunter was just named an Indiana All-Star and is a finalist for Indiana Mr Basketball (but likely will lose that honor to shoo-in Romeo Langford), and led his team to a state championship as a Jr. I think the obvious comparison here is Carsen Edwards, as a player who can score from anywhere, including creating his own shot. I think he's likely to be a strong enough player to see minutes next year, and probably be seen as a contributor on the court even if it's mostly spelling Carsen when he's resting.
Emmanuel Duwouna - 6'11" 220# Fr Center - Not sure if he'll see the court. He first played basketball ~4 years ago as he grew too large for soccer, and he may be a bit of a project. If he sees the court, it had better mean he's really shown amazing development under big-man coach Brandon Brantley, or it's going to mean that everything else we have at Center is falling apart.
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I think Eastern is a really, really good player. I'm just not sure he's really a PG.
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I think Eastern is a really, really good player. I'm just not sure he's really a PG.
It's tough to say. I think one of the reasons he came to Purdue [from what I've read] is that Painter basically told him he'd be able to at least fight for the PG position.
That said, in Painter's system playing "PG" doesn't necessarily mean all that much. PJ Thompson was 4th on the team in APG this past year. At different times Carsen or Vince brought the ball up the floor and set the offense. Nojel did it quite a bit when he was in the game.
As the year wore on, Eastern really did start to come into his own, but with such a veteran squad around him, wasn't asked to do too much, which helped. It remains to be seen how he [and everyone else] holds up when they're thrust into the limelight and don't have the veterans around to set the pace.
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I think most MSU fans actually thought the chances of him returning were lower than they should be anyway. He's not a kid who seems to enjoy coaching, and his limitations aren't going to change. He's a traditional big, who isn't that big, trying to get into a league that has very few players that still play that way, and those that do, are much taller than he is. I don't think he's going to like what the scouts say, but I'm not sure they'll like him any more in two years. If he's going to Europe anyway, maybe he'd rather just go now.
Reading the tea leaves, I think this is the case. I don't think he's going to like what he hears, but I also don't think his shortcomings are the type of things more college is going to fix. I think he's gone, to Europe.
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Illinois picked up allegedly the #1 JUCO PG this weekend. What that really means, I don't know. Replaces some depth lost with TeJon Lucas.
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How did UI manage to get a JuCo admitted? Seems to me that doesn't happen very often down there.
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Carsen Edwards won the Jerry West award, awarded to the best SG in the nation.
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Fits in the 2019-20 category, but OSU picks up a commitment from 4/5* Alonzo Gaffney from Cleveland, over MSU and Georgetown. Really good pickup.
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Carsen Edwards won the Jerry West award, awarded to the best SG in the nation.
Pretty impressive to win the award before the season even starts. ;)
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2002-2018 B1G (includes all current B1G teams even though they were not all in the B1G for that entire timeframe) NCAA tournament records sorted by wins, then appearances (resorted from an earlier post in roughly the order of success over that stratch, IMHO):
- 32-17: Michigan State
- 29-16: Wisconsin
- 20-11: Ohio State
- 17-8: Michigan
- 15-8: Maryland
- 14-9: Indiana
- 13-11: Purdue
- 13-9: Illinois
- 2-4: Iowa
- 1-5: Minnesota
- 1-1: Northwestern
- 0-1: Nebraska
- 0-1: Penn State
- 0-0: Rutgers
Since none of our teams have won an NC in that timeframe the number of losses for each team is also the number of NCAA tournament appearances in those 17 years.
The huge drop-off between #8 Illinois and #9 Iowa was somewhat surprising to me. The top eight all have at least eight NCAA appearances (in 17 years so at least roughly every other year) and at least 13 wins. None of the bottom six have more than five appearances or two wins.
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Kinda surprised Rutgers was that awful over that stretch, as the Big East that they were a part of was all about some men's hoops.
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Kinda surprised Rutgers was that awful over that stretch, as the Big East that they were a part of was all about some men's hoops.
I think Rutgers has the longest active NCAA tournament drought of any P5 school
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How would you rank "success" over this 17 year period?
In my view, for the top eight teams you can pretty much ignore performance in non-tournament years and just rank off of the NCAA tournament records. Within that though, how would you weight appearances as compared to wins?
The top three are obvious. MSU has the most appearances and the most wins and UW is second in both of those categories. Ohio State is third in wins and tied for third in appearances.
Then it gets debatable. Michigan is fourth in wins but Purdue is tied for third in appearances. I can recognize an argument for either.
Maybe a compromise is to rank at least the top eight by number of NCAA Tournament games played:
- #1 Michigan State, 49
- #2 Wisconsin, 45
- #3 Ohio State, 31
- #4 Michigan, 25
- #5 Purdue, 24
- #6 (tie) Maryland, 23
- #6 (tie) Indiana, 23
- #8 Illinois, 22
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Pretty impressive to win the award before the season even starts. ;)
Well, nobody's going to read the 2018-19 thread anymore. But assuming returns, he'd probably be on the watch list for it again.
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Then it gets debatable. Michigan is fourth in wins but Purdue is tied for third in appearances. I can recognize an argument for either.
I would say Michigan has had much higher highs than Purdue, but Purdue was more consistently good. I would give the edge to Michigan simply from a perception point because Michigan has had a couple of memorable tourney runs, while Purdue has not. If you asked the casual non-Big Ten basketball fan, my guess is that based on those two NC appearances, they would say Michigan.
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I would say Michigan has had much higher highs than Purdue, but Purdue was more consistently good. I would give the edge to Michigan simply from a perception point because Michigan has had a couple of memorable tourney runs, while Purdue has not. If you asked the casual non-Big Ten basketball fan, my guess is that based on those two NC appearances, they would say Michigan.
And actually, across that stretch it's hard to say Purdue was more consistently good, at least until Painter took over. The start of that 2002 and onward stretch was the late days of Keady, with Keady only making the tournament in 2003 and going 1-1 (making 2nd round). Keady's last 4 seasons (2002-2005) were 13-18, 19-11, 17-14, and 7-21, finishing below .500 in conference three of those four years. Likewise Beilein took over for Amaker. So I think you have to rate them based Painter vs Beilein, not on what occurred before that.
Painter had a rough go in 2005-06 with the depleted roster he had, going 9-19 (3-13) his first year, but he's been pretty consistently good since then. Outside of a rough stretch of 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons (coinciding with some recruiting busts and--not surprised if this had an effect--following his divorce), he's been over 20 wins every season and over 25 wins 7 times.
Michigan is very similar. Beilein took over two years after Painter, and had a rough first year but mostly solid success since. He's had a rougher go in conference play than Painter has (.561 to .617), but as you point out his highs in the tournament have been higher.
I would say they're pretty darn close. How you rate them is more related to whether you are rating regular season and conference finishes more highly, or whether you're rating the tournament more highly.
Conference play, I'd give the edge to Painter. Higher win percentage, more often finishing in the top 3 in conference, etc.
Beilein has been to the tournament 9 of 11 years, Painter has been there 10 of 13 years. Beilein has made the second weekend 4 times, Painter has made the second weekend 4 times. The difference is that all Beilein has made the third weekend twice, and all 4 of those trips for Painter has ended in the Sweet 16. So tournament-wise, it goes to Michigan.
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I'd say Purdue is the stronger Hoops program, but I am obviously bias.
B-Line has had a few runs to the NC game, which you can't take away from him.
But he also got beat by Ohio U, after clownishly aping Hoke's "Ohio" shtick the whole season leading up to the ironic Bobcat loss.
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Not sure where this belongs so I'll toss it out here:
During the tournament last year we had some discussion about the ridiculous shortage of eastern sites (talking first/second round here). I looked some things up to flesh out our argument:
- Per this site (https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-of-the-US-population-lives-in-the-Eastern-Central-and-Pacific-timezones-respectively?utm_medium=organic&utm_source=google_rich_qa&utm_campaign=google_rich_qa), 47.1% of the US population lives in EST.
- 29% lives in CST.
- 6.7% lives in MST.
- 16.6% lives in PST.
- 0.7% lives west of PST (Alaska and Hawaii).
The first/second round sites in the 2018 tournament were located:
- 3/8 or 37.5% in EST (Pittsburgh, Charlotte, Detroit) underrepresented by 9.6%
- 3/8 or 37.5% in CST (Nashville, Wichita, Dallas) overrepresented by 8.5%
- 1/8 or 12.5% in MST (Boise) overrepresented by 5.8%
- 1/8 or 12.5% in PST (San Diego) underrepresented by 4.1%
- 0/8 or 0% West of PST underrepresented by 0.7%
I realize that they can't hit it exactly but it seems like they consistently underrepresent EST. Combining PST with everything west of it and working on a four year cycle (32 locations) it should be:
- 15 in EST (.471*32=15.07) so the EST should get four sites in three of every four years with three sites once every four years.
- 9 in CST (.29*32=9.28) so the CST should get two sites in three of every four years with three sites once every four years.
- 2 in MST (.067*32=2.14) so the MST should get a site every other year.
- 6 in PST and west of PST ((.166+.07)*32=5.54) so the PST and points west of there should alternate between getting one and two sites.
Further it would make sense to link the top two and the bottom two such that:
- Three of four years EST would get 4 and CST would get two then the fourth year EST and CST would get three each.
- PST and MST should alternate such that PST gets two and MST none, then PST and MST get one each.
An additional problem with this year's sites was that the sites leaned west within each timezone:
- Two of the three EST sites (Pitt, Charlotte) were central to EST and the third (Det) was West.
- One of the CST sites (Nashville) was in the eastern part of CST but the other two (Wichita, Dallas) were in the western part.
- The MST site was about as far west as you can get in MST.
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Ward's father came out and said there is no Europe or tramsfer plan. That if he doesn't hear what he likes, he'll be back at MSU. I am legitimately surprised.
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Jacquil Taylor (5th year senior) to transfer from Purdue.
I know, most of you are probably saying "Who?" Which is incredibly sad, because Taylor showed a lot of promise but was continually hobbled by injury issues his entire career. He was a 6'10" 240# athletic center, but consistently had lower extremity injuries that impacted his minutes. This past season, he played quite a bit in the World University Games (Matt Haarms was excluded as he's not American), and was expected to be Isaac Haas' backup at the 5. But again, a foot injury gave Haarms the lead and he never gave it up.
Purdue has a lot of young big men coming in, but I think a lot of us were hoping that Taylor might get to play this season [and next if he applies/gets a 6th year waiver] and give us some experience and calmness that one might not expect out of a freshman. But it seems he decided it was no longer the right situation. And as a 5th year senior, we assume he'll be a grad transfer and can play immediately for his next team.
What I see from the fanbase so far is more along the lines of "sad to see him go, but wish him the best" response. So at least the fans don't have hard feelings here.
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Sounds like Purdue should have been trying to get Haas to put a wrap on something other than his elbow.
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Sounds like Purdue should have been trying to get Haas to put a wrap on something other than his elbow.
Ha. This the kind of thing you pay high sums to settle out of court to manage your reputation, especially with the text messages.
Based on some recent posts it looks like Haas is back with original girl in this case. I guess a long leash is given, including a handful of STD’s, for that NBA payday.
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Catch me up here fellas.
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Catch me up here fellas.
Tawdry. Apparently Haas had chlamydia but thought he was clean, had sex without protection. Not entirely sure whether he infected this girl with herpes or chlamydia AND herpes, but something. She's suing him and Purdue .
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The text messages that have now been aired publicly don't paint Haas in the best light. All consensual, but looks like he was having quite a bit of fun with at least a couple women, while knowingly carrying an STD or two.
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Mo Wagner declares for the draft with an agent. A good decision I think. He may have slid up a little next year, but that would mostly be attributed to next year not being quite as deep of a big man draft. Projected anywhere from late 1st to mid 2nd.
With the Ibi Watson transfer that opens up one scholarship. Michigan is pursuing Matt Mooney, a grad transfer from the University of South Dakota that many other are in on as well (Ohio State, Texas Tech, Arizona). He fits the role of Rahkman, and would be a great replacement for him.
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Is the South Dakota kid really looking to transfer now?
UW kicked his tires too. Not sure where that all stands.
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Two different transfers I think we might be talking about.
Mike Daum, the all everything 6’9 shooter from SDSU is a very unlikely grad transfer. More likely to stay or declare for the NBA. I think that is who Wisconsin might have been looking into. For some reason Kentucky fans think they have a shot at him, but he doesn’t appear to have an interest in transferring.
Matt Mooney, from USD, is a lesser known 2 guard. He averaged 19 a game. He is transferring and is being hotly pursued by a number of teams.
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Gotcha. Yeah, I think he stays or declares. The only reason I could see him moving is if he wants to get a masters from a Big Ten school or equal. Given his ability to play hoops, he probably doesn't need a masters.
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Nojel Eastern declaring without an agent. Can't imagine there is any chance, so no harm. To be honest, why doesn't every player on every team do this?
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Nojel Eastern declaring without an agent. Can't imagine there is any chance, so no harm. To be honest, why doesn't every player on every team do this?
Yeah, I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often. In fact, though, Eastern is a perfect example of why this rule will probably be changed. Eastern has NO shot at the draft this year. None. His game is NOWHERE near ready.
Carsen Edwards, if he went, would probably be a 2nd rounder this year, but we're expecting him to return to Purdue as long as he doesn't hear he's a 1st-rounder. He's not only IMHO asking scouts what to work on, he's legitimately testing the waters to see where he'd go. I think it's probably a 10-15% chance at best that he gets feedback that keeps him in the draft, but that's 10-15% higher odds than Nojel has.
Now, I can understand why some players may not do it. There are a lot of players at the college level who basically have no shot at EVER playing in the NBA, and perhaps they know it. If they don't have the size and athleticism, an NBA scout might tell them how to work on their skills, but he can't exactly tell them "grow 3 inches and add 9 inches to your vertical, while improving your lateral quickness."
Eastern is doing this because he does have NBA size and athleticism. His game is raw, and he's nowhere near ready for the NBA, but given that he's got the potential to be there in a few years, it makes perfect sense to get an evaluation and find out what you need to work on.
But I think the rule will probably be changed at some point because as more and more players try to take advantage of this, the NBA scouts are going to get sick and tired of it and not want all these players coming just for free evaluations.
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Yeah, I thin ka rule change is for sure coming. For one, it's dumb to force them to "declare" to get it, when we all know they'll be back. Second, yes, I imagine the system will begin becoming flooded with kids just seeking advice on what to work on, and NBA scouts aren't going to want to deal with telling 400 kids what to go work on next season, knowing they have no legitimate chance in the draft.
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The era today for college basketball, as it relates to roster planning, is a gigantic nightmare for coaches.
program's are dealing with:
- 1 or 2 year and done draft entrants
- Grad transfers in and out
- Draft entrants that are just testing the waters
- A number of kids doing a year of prep school for their sr year or after it.
- A large influx of international talent and a lot of ambiguity on NCAA and school acceptance standards for those kids
In Beilein's 9 man rotation this year he had a Division 3 transfer, A MAC grad transfer, an international kid from Germany, a prep academy kid, and a Kentucky transfer.
5 of his 9 rotational spots came via somewhat non-traditional routes.
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Poor guys. If only they were well compensated for their troubles.
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Poor guys. If only they were well compensated for their troubles.
If they wanted compensation, they shoulda gone to Louisville.
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In Beilein's 9 man rotation this year he had a Division 3 transfer, A MAC grad transfer, an international kid from Germany, a prep academy kid, and a Kentucky transfer.
5 of his 9 rotational spots came via somewhat non-traditional routes.
Beilein holds the cards. He can go strictly traditional 3-star kids that will stay and play 4 years if he'd like.
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If they wanted compensation, they shoulda gone to Louisville.
He was referring to the coaches
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coaches get better compensation at Louisville too
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Beilein holds the cards. He can go strictly traditional 3-star kids that will stay and play 4 years if he'd like.
It isn't a woe is me, or in this case woe is Beilein; more just a statement that the makeup of a power 5 college basketball roster has changed quite a bit in the last decade. Clearly the sum of the parts worked for Beilein this season. And, going into next year, he doesn't have any dramatic or unforeseen turnover. And, Abdul-Rahkman might be the best example of a 2-star 4 year kid out there as you noted above. Last year it was Walton and Irvin. They have those too.
Michigan is just one example of many, that I am more familiar with. Chris Holtmann is feverishly trying to fill some gaps and many different ways this offseason.
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many more transfers in college basketball than just a few years ago, it seems to me.
I'd like to see the rules change. More like football. Sign up for 4 years. Sit out a year if you transfer. No one and done.
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Nebraska Athletic Director Bill Moos announced Tuesday a one-year contract extension for Head Men’s Basketball Coach Tim Miles. With the addition of a year to his current deal, Miles is now under contract at Nebraska through the 2020-21 season.
Miles coached Nebraska to one of the best seasons in school history in 2017-18. The Huskers finished with a 22-11 record and earned a berth to the National Invitational Tournament. Nebraska posted a 13-5 Big Ten Conference record, setting a school record for most conference victories in a season.
Miles will enter his seventh season at Nebraska in the 2018-19 season. In addition to the NIT appearance in 2018, Miles guided the Huskers to an NCAA Tournament berth in 2014.
Nebraska Athletic Director Bill Moos:
“Tim and his staff did an outstanding job this season with 22 wins and 13 Big Ten Conference victories. That type of performance certainly merits an extension of Tim’s contract as the leader of our men’s basketball program.
“I have been very impressed with the energy and passion Tim provides for the Nebraska men’s basketball program, as well as his commitment to his staff and the young men on our team.”
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Illinois 2018-2019 opponents
HOME & HOME
Indiana
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
HOME ONLY
Michigan
Michigan State
Rutgers
AWAY ONLY
Iowa
Maryland
Purdue
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Really nice scheduling break there for Illinois
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http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/041918aaa.html
Ohio State will play Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State and Northwestern both in Columbus and on the road (home and home) in 2018-19.
The Buckeyes travel only to Indiana, Michigan and Nebraska. Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin will play Ohio State in Columbus only.
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http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/041918aaa.html
Ohio State will play Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State and Northwestern both in Columbus and on the road (home and home) in 2018-19.
The Buckeyes travel only to Indiana, Michigan and Nebraska. Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin will play Ohio State in Columbus only.
There is obviously a lot yet to be determined about these teams but I see this as a mixed bag overall. As a WAY early guess I would probably project the Buckeyes to go 2-4 in the six games they miss (losses to Michigan and in the road games, wins in the other two home games).
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Charles Matthews going the non-agent, take a gander at the draft route. Unlike Mo, I believe this would be a very poor decision. There is a lot to work on, and at 6'6, he isn't long enough to make up for those deficiencies yet. 31% from 3, 55% from FT, and little to no handles.
He needs to develop his dribble entry and shooting quite a bit to even be a consideration for NBA teams. If those showed big improvement next year it's possible he could be a late 1st rounder.
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Charles Matthews going the non-agent, take a gander at the draft route. Unlike Mo, I believe this would be a very poor decision. There is a lot to work on, and at 6'6, he isn't long enough to make up for those deficiencies yet. 31% from 3, 55% from FT, and little to no handles.
He needs to develop his dribble entry and shooting quite a bit to even be a consideration for NBA teams. If those showed big improvement next year it's possible he could be a late 1st rounder.
Yeah, I've changed my mind on a lot of these guys. I don't think returning necessarily helps most of them. I agree with you though, Matthews is one of the ones who I think it would. He's athletic, but his game needs a lot of polish. I think by doing that he could put himself well within the first round a year from now.
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Illinois 2018-2019 opponents
HOME & HOME
Indiana
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
HOME ONLY
Michigan
Michigan State
Rutgers
AWAY ONLY
Iowa
Maryland
Purdue
Maryland away game is being reported as part the basketball/hockey deal at Madison Square Garden
Non-conference games known so far
Georgetown at Illinois in Nov. (Gavitt Games)
Maui Invitational Nov. 19-21
UNLV at Illinois on Dec. 8th
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Lol, 53 underclassmen have now declared with an agent. There are 60 total picks. I'm mildly impressed all these morons made it this far through higher education.
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Lol, 53 underclassmen have now declared with an agent. There are 60 total picks. I'm mildly impressed all these morons made it this far through higher education.
As we saw with UNC, higher education may not be on the syllabus for some "student"-athletes.
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As we saw with UNC, higher education may not be on the syllabus for some "student"-athletes.
The sad reality is that the main difference between UNC and everybody else is simply that UNC got caught.
If you compare the average incoming SAT scores of football/basketball players to those of real students it becomes patently obvious that the football/basketball players could not possibly keep up academically.
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The sad reality is that the main difference between UNC and everybody else is simply that UNC got caught.
If you compare the average incoming SAT scores of football/basketball players to those of real students it becomes patently obvious that the football/basketball players could not possibly keep up academically.
I wanted to flesh out this argument a little bit. Here is an article from USNR (https://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/paper-trail/2008/12/30/athletes-show-huge-gaps-in-sat-scores). According to the article Football players average 220 points lower on the SAT than their classmates while men's basketball players average 227 points lower.
@OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) may be interested to know that Florida has the biggest gap between student body and football players at 346 points.
Georgia Tech had the highest SAT score for football players, 1028. Despite that accomplishment, GaTech's football players still had scores more than 300 points below those of their classmates.
The article also lists the top-10 highest SAT scores for football players:
- 1028, GaTech
- 997, OrSU
- 997, Michigan
- 993, UVA
- 974, PU
- 973, IU
- 968, Hawaii
- 967, Cal
- 966, Colo
- 964, Iowa
Then they listed the bottom 10:
- 878, OkSU
- 878, Louisville
- 890, Memphis
- 890, UF
- 901, TxTech
- 910, Ark
- 911, aTm
- 911, MissSt
- 916, WSU
- 917, MSU
Note that the top to bottom gap between the highest SAT scores for football players (GaTech at 1028) and the lowest SAT scores for football players (OkSU at 878) is only 150. Ie, the football vs overall gap at Florida (and many other schools) is larger than the overall gap between the highest and lowest scoring football players.
Similarly, the gap between the highest scoring football players in the B1G (Michigan at 997) and the lowest scoring football players in the B1G (MSU at 917) is a mere 80 points. I would wager that the gap between Michigan and Michigan State's football players is smaller than the gap between football and non-football at every single B1G school.
To illustrate that last point, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana, and Iowa look good while MSU looks bad on that "football player average" list but now compare that to the average incoming freshman at those schools:
- Michigan: Per Prep Scholar* the average incoming freshman has a 1450 SAT. This is 453 points higher than Michigan's average football player.
- Purdue: Per Prep Scholar the average incoming freshman has a 1300 SAT. This is 326 points higher than Purdue's average football player.
- Indiana: Per Prep Scholar the average incoming freshman has a 1240 SAT. This is 267 points higher than Indiana's average football player.
- Iowa: Per Prep Scholar the average incoming freshman has a 1220 SAT. This is 256 points higher than Iowa's average football player.
- Michigan State: Per Prep Scholar the average incoming freshman has a 1190 SAT. This is 273 points higher than Michigan State's average football player.
Note, as I assumed above, that the football vs average gaps of 256-453 dwarf the 80 point gap between Michigan's and MSU's football players.
I'll also add something that I noticed a long time ago. Note that when the USNR article mentions athletes it uses the term "football players" as opposed to "scholarship football players". I am fairly certain that the gap is actually worse and that it is partially masked by the existence of non-scholarship "practice squad" walk-ons at all of the schools. It stands to reason that the walk-ons probably have scores at least close to the student body average because all (or at least most) of them got in legitimately based on their academics. Thus, if you eliminated them from the "football average" the football average would be even worse. The bottom line is that even Michigan's relatively higher achieving football players, on average, couldn't get in to Michigan State based on academics.
There is a lot of cheating and chicanery going on because it simply isn't possible for guys with 917-997 SAT scores to keep up academically in classes with classmates whose scores are substantially better. I do not like it, but I also strongly oppose the NCAA's incessant focus on graduation rates as the cure. Focusing on graduation rates effectively encourages the schools disregard the academic shortcomings of their athletes and pass their athletes through to graduation. I do not believe that the situation is helped by handing out free diploma's to athletes at the end of their four years regardless of their actual academic merit.
*I used Prep Scholar for the average for incoming freshman because it was the first credible looking site that popped up. That said, there is obviously something wrong because the UNNR article stated that Florida had the largest football vs average gap at 346 points but comparing Michigan's average per Prep Scholar to Michigan's football average per the article yields an even larger, 453 point gap.
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Maybe I’m not a realist but I don’t believe cheating is as pervasive at most schools like it was (or still is) at North Carolina.
The difference between UNC getting caught and others is they had brand power in hoops that the NCAA couldn’t and wouldn’t damage. The NCAA took it to Ohio State for tattoos and Michigan for some extra stretching at offseason practice. They sure as heck could have with UNC for completely fake classes. They used the whole student body having access to the classes as an excuse.
Everyone has some degree of compliance issues, but I struggle to believe they have completely made up classes. UNC is on another level and I will struggle to ever take the school seriously.
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There is a lot of cheating and chicanery going on because it simply isn't possible for guys with 917-997 SAT scores to keep up academically in classes with classmates whose scores are substantially better. I do not like it, but I also strongly oppose the NCAA's incessant focus on graduation rates as the cure. Focusing on graduation rates effectively encourages the schools disregard the academic shortcomings of their athletes and pass their athletes through to graduation. I do not believe that the situation is helped by handing out free diploma's to athletes at the end of their four years regardless of their actual academic merit.
I always find that question interesting.
The subject of who can keep up academically always seems like a squishy one to me. I'm sure in the aggregate says people who do well on those standardized tests do well, reflecting a wide range of factors. But beyond the broad picture, it seems like there are so many shades of gray. What kids are good test takers? what're their situations? What are they trying to study? Major is such an enormous element.
I guess I'm writing this because I look back at my college years and what classes were more difficult or less was so random from school to school. People want to say, school A or B is more rigorous, but I'm struck that a school is such a massive ecosystem, I have trouble making such sharp distinctions.
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Maybe I’m not a realist but I don’t believe cheating is as pervasive at most schools like it was (or still is) at North Carolina.
The difference between UNC getting caught and others is they had brand power in hoops that the NCAA couldn’t and wouldn’t damage. The NCAA took it to Ohio State for tattoos and Michigan for some extra stretching at offseason practice. They sure as heck could have with UNC for completely fake classes. They used the whole student body having access to the classes as an excuse.
Everyone has some degree of compliance issues, but I struggle to believe they have completely made up classes. UNC is on another level and I will struggle to ever take the school seriously.
The UNC case points out one of the fundamental problems that the NCAA has to deal with. Everyone likes to criticize the NCAA and I understand that but they do have a difficult situation. They only regulate the athletic side of things and what is impermissible is anything not available to the general student population. That is, as you referenced, the essence of UNC's defense. They simply argued that the classes in question were available to all students. The irony here is that they were effectively arguing that their own academics were weak.
I remember when the story broke that I told @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) that it would never amount to anything. You have to understand the NCAA. This is an organization that takes political correctness to the nth degree. If you looked at their actions over the past several decades you might conclude that the single biggest issue in collegiate athletics over that period was having mascots named after Native Americans. Oddly, having mascots named after Irishmen (Notre Dame) or Scandinavians (Cleveland State among others) is apparently not problematic but having mascots named after Native Americans is the single biggest issue in sports.
There was never any chance that an organization as institutionally politically correct as the NCAA was going to criticize a Black Studies Department. It just wasn't going to happen.
FWIW: I do not believe that outright cheating (as at UNC) is the norm, but I do believe that cutting corners pretty much is. Not to pick on Michigan, but you are a Michigan guy so I will, there is a reason that Michigan's athletes gravitate toward "General Studies (http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/academics/stories/index.ssf/2008/03/athletes_safe_harbor_is_genera.html)" and "Kinesiology (http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/academics/stories/index.ssf/2008/03/kinesiology_reserves_slots_for.html)". Per the first of the linked articles athletes at Michigan comprise 3% of the student body and 49% of those enrolled in general studies. The benefit of general studies is primarily that the course options are numerous which enables a "student" athlete to choose cupcake courses. You can't do that in most majors because there are actual things that you actually need to learn.
I honestly don't mean to pick on Michigan. In the second of the 0linked article the "whistleblower", Professor Jay Basten was asked point blank if it would be possible for Michigan to offer its "student" athletes an academic experience similar to that of a typical student and still compete at the highest levels athletically. He didn't hesitate before answering, "No."
I believe that Professor Basten is correct. It simply is not possible because there are not enough high-end athletes with 1,400+ SAT scores available.
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I always find that question interesting.
The subject of who can keep up academically always seems like a squishy one to me. I'm sure in the aggregate says people who do well on those standardized tests do well, reflecting a wide range of factors. But beyond the broad picture, it seems like there are so many shades of gray. What kids are good test takers? what're their situations? What are they trying to study? Major is such an enormous element.
I guess I'm writing this because I look back at my college years and what classes were more difficult or less was so random from school to school. People want to say, school A or B is more rigorous, but I'm struck that a school is such a massive ecosystem, I have trouble making such sharp distinctions.
Of course there is variation in the level of difficulty of classes at an institution and even within Departments. That said, the range and average difficulty are higher at a school with an average incoming SAT of 1450 than they are at a school with an average incoming SAT of 997.
Personally, I believe that the "good test taker" issue is wildly overblown. Most good test takers are good at taking tests because they are pretty smart. Most bad test takers are bad at taking tests because they aren't.
- If you are having the books of a company that you are considering investing in audited do you want them audited by someone who passed the CPA exam or by someone who couldn't because they were a "bad test taker"?
- If you are standing under a bridge do you want it to have been designed by someone who passed their engineering classes and the PE exam or by someone who couldn't because they were a "bad test taker"?
- If you ticker isn't ticking right and you are going under the knife for heart surgery do you want it performed by someone who passed their Med School classes or by someone who couldn't because they were a "bad test taker"?
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No doubt Medina. Michigan has the easier majors with the General College. The current Head Football coach even ridiculed it at one point in time when he was at Stanford. But I believe that is true in all colleges at all levels. I did my undergrad at a mid-size non athletic scholarship division III insititution and a number of my teammates went with the CO-JO major that the athletes loved. And this was in D3. Communications and Journalism was seen as the path of least resistance.
It’s too bad that when we see a Craig Krenzel or Michigan’s Noah Furbush with a tough major and high GPA they are rare exceptions and not the majority.
I would be curious what some of the private school delta’s are for SAT’s between athletes and general student body. I am assuming it is not publicly reported. They tout the high levels of their athletes but this is a really novel way to look at it. What’s the degree of latitude given by the institution For it’s athletes? That’s the question being answered with this data. Good work Medina!
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With Florida having the largest gap, doesn't that just say that UF is very confident in its ability to get those players the grades they need (hopefully ethically and legally)???
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Personally, I believe that the "good test taker" issue is wildly overblown. Most good test takers are good at taking tests because they are pretty smart. Most bad test takers are bad at taking tests because they aren't.
I agree. I suspect there may be outliers (i.e. people who have a natural anxiety when faced with a test, etc), but I think this relationship probably is spot on.
Of course, I'm a good test taker, so it's in my interest to advocate as such...
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I agree. I suspect there may be outliers (i.e. people who have a natural anxiety when faced with a test, etc), but I think this relationship probably is spot on.
Of course, I'm a good test taker, so it's in my interest to advocate as such...
As a good test taker, I always felt like it overstated my skill. I never felt THAT good at things. Granted when I say "good test taker" I meant a sort of aptitude with the filling out bubbles, multiple choice kind of thing.
I just thought those were such a different beast than applied problem solving or crafting an argument.
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Personally, I believe that the "good test taker" issue is wildly overblown. Most good test takers are good at taking tests because they are pretty smart. Most bad test takers are bad at taking tests because they aren't.
- If you are having the books of a company that you are considering investing in audited do you want them audited by someone who passed the CPA exam or by someone who couldn't because they were a "bad test taker"?
- If you are standing under a bridge do you want it to have been designed by someone who passed their engineering classes and the PE exam or by someone who couldn't because they were a "bad test taker"?
- If you ticker isn't ticking right and you are going under the knife for heart surgery do you want it performed by someone who passed their Med School classes or by someone who couldn't because they were a "bad test taker"?
Interesting, I got smarter when I sat down with a free tutor who coached me on how to take the SAT.
Also, let's do a quick SAT style problem
A. CPA exam:Practicing accounting
B. Engineering licence exam/multiple years of engineering school:Practicing engineering
C. Three years of medical school:Practicing medicine
D. SAT:College
Which of these isn't like the others?
Three are testing practical skills that are going to be applied. One is not. Three are taken by adults with college degrees or more under their belt. One is taken by high school kids.
Now, on average, I won't deny that kids with better scores have better outcomes (even factoring out the causality in that, I'd bet on it). But I imagine there's enough grey. It's sort of the same way teams that recruit better tend to be good, but Brady Hoke still existed at Michigan.
What I originally was thinking about was more that the quality of SAT scores might not translate to the rigor of classes per say. I suppose if you're building in that big a gap, sure. (I'll also agree, the vast majority of athletes are not ready for college classes for a variety of reasons. That some do as well as they do frankly amazes me sometimes)
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Interesting, I got smarter when I sat down with a free tutor who coached me on how to take the SAT.
Also, let's do a quick SAT style problem
A. CPA exam:Practicing accounting
B. Engineering licence exam/multiple years of engineering school:Practicing engineering
C. Three years of medical school:Practicing medicine
D. SAT:College
Which of these isn't like the others?
Three are testing practical skills that are going to be applied. One is not. Three are taken by adults with college degrees or more under their belt. One is taken by high school kids.
Now, on average, I won't deny that kids with better scores have better outcomes (even factoring out the causality in that, I'd bet on it). But I imagine there's enough grey. It's sort of the same way teams that recruit better tend to be good, but Brady Hoke still existed at Michigan.
What I originally was thinking about was more that the quality of SAT scores might not translate to the rigor of classes per say. I suppose if you're building in that big a gap, sure. (I'll also agree, the vast majority of athletes are not ready for college classes for a variety of reasons. That some do as well as they do frankly amazes me sometimes)
You do start with (at least) 4 years of engineering school (my degree, for example, required 142 credit hours).
Then comes the 8 hour fundamentals exam, then (at least) 4 years of practice under a PE, then the 8 hour principals of practice exam, then practice engineering. It's (at least) an 8 year process to become licensed as a professional engineer.
Good test taker or not, that fundamentals exam is a bitch. I don't care who you are - it's a comprehensive exam on you're entire undergraduate education (and then some) in one day.
I came out of that thing and my brain had swelled so much, I couldn't get in my car. I think I did permanent damage.
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I think "good test taker" is often oversimplified. There are lots of different kinds of tests. I think there are people who react better or worse in test taking type situations. But I also think we frequently refer to the big high school tests and similarly styled tests when we say that. There are strategies to do well, but there's also something to being able to quickly eliminate wrong answers, guess well among limited possible answers when you don't know, and eliminate irrelevant information quickly.
I agree in a lot of ways the smartest kids score the best, but there is variation. I do standardize test well. I was never a great high school/college/law exam test taker. You can learn strategies for ACT/SAT/LSAT, whatever, prep, but you can't stufy the material. I'm not good at studying. I'm not great at memorizing things on short notice. I did far better on written finals than "answer" finals. I got a 1420 on my SAT, didn't really matter. I went to Indiana. There were kids much smarter than me. There were kids that didn't belong in college there. I did well on my LSATs, and there it did help. I hadn't planned on getting into Wisconsin or Pitt for law school, but I did, solely based on one standardized test. I was probably in a little over my head among my fellow students there.
That brings me to the other point. The differences between schools is not really so much curriculum. A lot of that is fairly universal. You cover a lot of the same material in comparable courses no matter how good a school you go to is. The difference is the caliber of students you are being compared to. If it's a strict curve, you are being directly compared. If it's not, every professor is going to trend toward a natural bell curve anyway. So the better schools, the same work product is probably not going to be viewed as favorably by comparison. But at any school, you can make it as tough or as easy as you want. I had a buddy, real smart, no interest in school. Got into UM without trying a lick, just to appease his parents. Breezed through in General Studies in 3.5 years just to get his degree and pursue other things. I saw people at MSU who looked like they never saw the library. I thought my course work at Indiana was a joke. I left there with a 3.9 trying less than I had in high school, but I also saw kids pulling all nighters just to get Cs, and killing themselves over class work. I don't think there is any sort of universal experience there. If you want it to be easy, they are more than happy to take your money. If you don't, certainly all the large universities we are talking about here, have plenty of avenues to challenge yourself in whatever ways you want.
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It’s too bad that when we see a Craig Krenzel or Michigan’s Noah Furbush with a tough major and high GPA they are rare exceptions and not the majority.
The pathetic thing is that Craig Krenzel graduated ~15 years ago and I can't think of a better, more recent example.
I think we all tend to have this vision in our heads that our favorite football team is made up of legitimate college students who happen to be really good athletes but unfortunately the reality is far from that.
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I would be curious what some of the private school delta’s are for SAT’s between athletes and general student body. I am assuming it is not publicly reported. They tout the high levels of their athletes but this is a really novel way to look at it. What’s the degree of latitude given by the institution For it’s athletes? That’s the question being answered with this data. Good work Medina!
I would be interested to see that as well. How smart are Stanford's football players? How smart are Duke's basketball players.
My guess is that there is a better chance that a high-end school could compete in basketball than in football with legitimate students. I say that simply because there are less of them. In theory it might be possible for Dook to sign 3-4 legitimate students who can also play high-level BB every year. I do not think it would be possible for Stanford to sign 15-25 legitimate students who can also play high-level FB every year.
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I'll admit that I cringe when I see UW players majoring in Life Science Communication (at least it's a B.S. - there's that). I don't know what that means or what you'd do with it.
I do like seeing many of them majoring in business, science and engineering.
Joel Stave has a degree in Civil Engineering.
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I do think that the SAT is not a good measure of intelligence. I think its reliance on things like algebra and language is more a question of "what did you learn in HS?" than it is of intelligence. As such, it might not be a bad thing for its stated purpose, which is to measure your aptitude for collegiate work, as it is more a measurement of your completion of the basic prerequisites for the sort of material you'll cover in college.
Compare this to an IQ test, which is more about things like pattern recognition and completion, and is far less culturally-based. An IQ test is designed not to measure acquired skills, but to measure adaptable thinking and is much more of a measurement of the "raw horsepower" of someone's brain. Still imperfect, but designed for something completely different than the SAT.
That said, my point still stands regarding "test-taking skills". As a general rule, tests measure something that was learned. Usually they're somewhere between the SAT (acquired skills that are directly related to a topic of study) and an IQ test (measuring abstract pattern-recognition and completion). Usually most tests we take in life are related to something that we are tasked with learning, and the tests are designed to measure that learning. I think more intelligent people learn more quickly, and have an easier time recalling that information for the test, than less intelligent people, and thus will tend to do better on the tests. That doesn't mean they're a "good test taker", it means they have a better mastery of the concepts being tested, and they acquired that mastery because they're smarter.
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I'll admit that I cringe when I see UW players majoring in Life Science Communication (at least it's a B.S. - there's that). I don't know what that means or what you'd do with it.
I do like seeing many of them majoring in business, science and engineering.
I cringe when I see a lot of college students major in things that really don't offer any direct employment options beyond continuing to study to get a Masters/PhD and then teach the subject.
A bachelor's degree does open doors that a HS diploma wouldn't, so there's that. But in general it seems like for so many students, the money and the 4 years spent learning things that have no practical application to the working world seems like a waste.
I actually cringe less when I see athletes in those majors. At least I know they're not spending their own money, going deep in debt with student loans, to be there. They'll be just as employable as the kids who graduate with $150K in student loans in those same majors.
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Interesting, I got smarter when I sat down with a free tutor who coached me on how to take the SAT.
Also, let's do a quick SAT style problem
A. CPA exam:Practicing accounting
B. Engineering licence exam/multiple years of engineering school:Practicing engineering
C. Three years of medical school:Practicing medicine
D. SAT:College
Which of these isn't like the others?
Three are testing practical skills that are going to be applied. One is not. Three are taken by adults with college degrees or more under their belt. One is taken by high school kids.
Now, on average, I won't deny that kids with better scores have better outcomes (even factoring out the causality in that, I'd bet on it). But I imagine there's enough grey. It's sort of the same way teams that recruit better tend to be good, but Brady Hoke still existed at Michigan.
What I originally was thinking about was more that the quality of SAT scores might not translate to the rigor of classes per say. I suppose if you're building in that big a gap, sure. (I'll also agree, the vast majority of athletes are not ready for college classes for a variety of reasons. That some do as well as they do frankly amazes me sometimes)
I had a similar experience of "getting smarter" when I took a class for the LSAT. However, there are definite limitations. The first day of the LSAT course we took a sample exam. The purpose was to create a baseline. When we showed up for the second class the instructor went over the scores and then gave us an idea of what we could expect. My baseline was high enough that they offered me my money back if I didn't want to stay because they had found that they were not able to significantly improve high scores.
I share that story because my guess is that the same thing applies to SAT prep courses. If a kid starts out with average scores the prep course can probably get that kid around a one standard deviation improvement. However, if you start out much above the 75th percentile my guess is that the prep course will not help you very much.
WRT the LSAT, the course did help me but only for reasons of time management. I have always been a fast test taker. Until the LSAT I had literally never run out of time while taking a test. When I took the CPA exam I got done with the morning sections so quickly that I had time to go have a beer and lunch before heading back for the afternoon sessions.
The LSAT was different for me. They had four logic puzzles on each exam. Typically one was fairly easy, two were moderate and one was nearly impossibly difficult. The main thing I gained from the prep course was sufficient experience with their logic puzzles to be able to quickly recognize the most difficult question and put it off until last. This was a significant benefit because the questions were not weighted. Spending a ridiculous amount of time solving the difficult logic puzzle would get you maybe 10 correct answers if you got it right. You could get the same 10 points by solving the easy logic puzzle.
There was one other benefit to the LSAT prep course. When I started I was doing the logic puzzles in my head. I learned that this was a bad idea. I could usually do the easy one in my head, but even with that one, there was a risk of getting confused somewhere along the way. The moderate puzzles were extremely difficult for me to do in my head and the difficult puzzle was impossible for me to do in my head. Drawing a chart or graph made the easy puzzles extremely easy and it made the moderate puzzles reasonably easy.
After the prep course I knew how to approach the LSAT. In the puzzle section I skipped the difficult one and quickly solved the other three. Only then did I return to the difficult puzzle. That way, if I couldn't finish it I would be guessing on difficult questions rather than easy ones.
Back to the SAT:
Fundamentally, the SAT is an IQ test. You are correct that it is unlike the other exams I listed because it is a test of aptitude rather than a test of knowledge. That said, IQ tests work. I know that they are frequently criticized but when studies compare large enough groups the results show that IQ does matter.
Those average non-athlete Michigan freshmen with their 1400+ SAT scores are smart cookies. The Michigan football players with their <1000 SAT scores aren't. Back to prepscholar (https://blog.prepscholar.com/what-is-a-good-sat-score-a-bad-sat-score-an-excellent-sat-score):
Nationally:
- 1450 is 98th percentile: Only 2% of SAT takers score 1450+ and this is Michigan's average incoming score.
- 1330 is 90th percentile: 10% of SAT takers score 1330+
- 1230 is 80th percentile: 20% of SAT takers score 1280+
- 1170 is 71st percentile: 29% of SAT takers score 1170+
- 1110 is 61st percentile: 39% of SAT takers score 1110+
- 1060 is 51st percentile: 49% of SAT takers score 1060+
- 1000 is 40th percentile: 60% of SAT takers score 1000+
- 950 is 31st percentile: 69% of SAT takers score 950+
- 890 is 21st percentile: 79% of SAT takers score 890+
- 810 is 11th percentile: 89% of SAT takers score 810+
My guess is that roughly the bottom half of SAT takers are simply not college material. Ie, a score of <1000 probably does not belong in ANY college let alone a highly selective one. Then remember that Michigan's average is 997 and they are one of the highest in the nation. Also remember that I believe that Michigan's (and everybody else's) athlete scores are inflated by the inclusion of walk-ons. If you eliminated the walk-ons my guess is the Michigan's recruited scholarship football players probably have average scores around the Florida level of about 890 or 20th percentile.
Now think about your HS class for a minute. Can you honestly say that you think the least smart 20% (one out of five) were smart enough to compete academically with the smartest 2% (one out of 50)? Then remember that the SAT is national. The variation within your HS was not nearly as large as the variation across the entire nation where we include high-end elite prep school students and low-end terrible school students.
There is no way for academically challenged 20th percentile students to keep up with elite 98th percentile students academically. Thus, the schools have to find a work-around or else give up on competing athletically.
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I cringe when I see a lot of college students major in things that really don't offer any direct employment options beyond continuing to study to get a Masters/PhD and then teach the subject.
A bachelor's degree does open doors that a HS diploma wouldn't, so there's that. But in general it seems like for so many students, the money and the 4 years spent learning things that have no practical application to the working world seems like a waste.
I actually cringe less when I see athletes in those majors. At least I know they're not spending their own money, going deep in debt with student loans, to be there. They'll be just as employable as the kids who graduate with $150K in student loans in those same majors.
At this point we are WAY off topic but I'll keep going anyway, LoL. I think that your statement about opening doors (underlined by me) is the reason for this. At this link (http://www.russellsage.org/sites/all/files/chartbook/Educational%20Attainment%20and%20Achievement.pdf) there is a chart (pg2) showing the percentage of the US population with HS and college degrees. The chart starts in with people born in 1900 when about 8% of men and 6% of women had bachelor's degrees. Also in 1900 about 28% of men and 33% of women had HS diplomas. As of the cohort born in the late 80's:
- ~28% of men have a bachelor's degree
- ~32% of women have a bachelor's degree
- ~89% of both men and women have HS diplomas
IMHO, this is a product of the incessant focus on graduation rates. IMHO, this focus is counter-productive because when educational administrators are judged based on graduation rates they have an obvious motivation to dumb down the course-work. Dumbing-down the course-work pushes up graduation rates. The unfortunate side-effect is that it effectively eliminates the benefit of graduating. Among those born in 1900, having a HS diploma was effectively equivalent to a person born in the late 80's having a bachelor's degree.
The need for a bachelor's degree is the main reason that so many college students major in those cringe-worthy majors. Some of them will get PhD's and teach the next generation but most will simply get jobs that do not actually require a college degree but for which college degrees are required by the employer simply to weed out applicants.
Employers could accomplish the same thing by simply giving all applicants an IQ test but they are prohibited by law from doing so (Griggs vs Duke Power Co). Interestingly, public employers are not prohibited from administering IQ tests and they do it all the time. The most well known being the ASVAB (Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery test). The military uses ASVAB to weed out the least intelligent applicants but private employers are forbidden from using such tests.
Employers use a college degree requirement as an effective IQ test because they are prohibited from simply using an IQ test. They need an IQ test because HS diplomas are handed out like candy and thus fail to serve this purpose.
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One non-Conference game revealed.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dbj8TdgUQAAwtHx.jpg)
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Is it me or does that schedule seem to back up a little every year? I remember only like 15-20 years ago being excited Michigan got to play "early" in the Preseason NIT over Thanksgiving. Most teams didn't start til December. I thought the Saturday before Thanksgiving then became the norm for a while, to get a game in before the Thanksgiving week tourneys. Now November 7?
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Matic Vesel not returning to the Illini. Still two open scholarships for 2018.
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Nebraska basketball picked up one of the top guards on the transfer market on Thursday, as Robert Morris transfer Dachon Burke committed to the Huskers while on an official visit.
The 6-foot-4 Burke is transferring to Nebraska from Robert Morris where he averaged 17.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game last season as a sophomore. Burke will have to sit out next season per NCAA transfer rules, and will have two seasons of eligibility in Lincoln.
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At this point we are WAY off topic but I'll keep going anyway, LoL. I think that your statement about opening doors (underlined by me) is the reason for this. At this link (http://www.russellsage.org/sites/all/files/chartbook/Educational%20Attainment%20and%20Achievement.pdf) there is a chart (pg2) showing the percentage of the US population with HS and college degrees. The chart starts in with people born in 1900 when about 8% of men and 6% of women had bachelor's degrees. Also in 1900 about 28% of men and 33% of women had HS diplomas. As of the cohort born in the late 80's:
- ~28% of men have a bachelor's degree
- ~32% of women have a bachelor's degree
- ~89% of both men and women have HS diplomas
IMHO, this is a product of the incessant focus on graduation rates. IMHO, this focus is counter-productive because when educational administrators are judged based on graduation rates they have an obvious motivation to dumb down the course-work. Dumbing-down the course-work pushes up graduation rates. The unfortunate side-effect is that it effectively eliminates the benefit of graduating. Among those born in 1900, having a HS diploma was effectively equivalent to a person born in the late 80's having a bachelor's degree.
The need for a bachelor's degree is the main reason that so many college students major in those cringe-worthy majors. Some of them will get PhD's and teach the next generation but most will simply get jobs that do not actually require a college degree but for which college degrees are required by the employer simply to weed out applicants.
Employers could accomplish the same thing by simply giving all applicants an IQ test but they are prohibited by law from doing so (Griggs vs Duke Power Co). Interestingly, public employers are not prohibited from administering IQ tests and they do it all the time. The most well known being the ASVAB (Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery test). The military uses ASVAB to weed out the least intelligent applicants but private employers are forbidden from using such tests.
Employers use a college degree requirement as an effective IQ test because they are prohibited from simply using an IQ test. They need an IQ test because HS diplomas are handed out like candy and thus fail to serve this purpose.
I think this a part of it, but there's also the factor of the changing of the job market.
For better or worse, there are many fewer jobs one can do without some kind of baseline skills that often get strengthened in college (death of factory jobs, union jobs, etc, I assumed the right phrase is something like semi-skilled labor). College attendance boomed in the 50s, became a path to a better life, and everyone felt they had a chance at it.
The downside is not enough attention is paid to skilled work that falls outside the academic realm. Being a plumber or electrician or HVAC person are good and lucrative jobs, but they aren't within what colleges teach. So finding a way to make those more of a thing would be good (I also think college offers personal development, but obviously at a cost).
It's funny, when they're called IQ tests, my instinct goes against them. When they're called aptitude, less so. Maybe because I imagine aptitude is more job focused. I also enjoy that "Word Knowledge" is part of the ASVAB. To think the vocabulary tests I took in sixth grade raised my IQ.
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Since I'm helping threadjack, I'll also help unthreadjack.
UW just missed out on a transfer big named Wyatt Walker. Nearly averaged a double-double two years ago. Now headed to NC state.
I'm annoyed because UW is stupid thin up front (had three bigs who played last year, one who was kind of a SF). But he also was a no-range player, and I kind of want UW to move back toward having everyone who can at least kind of shoot.
(I was about to post on him still considering, but upon googling, it said he committed 3 minutes earlier)
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The downside is not enough attention is paid to skilled work that falls outside the academic realm. Being a plumber or electrician or HVAC person are good and lucrative jobs, but they aren't within what colleges teach. So finding a way to make those more of a thing would be good (I also think college offers personal development, but obviously at a cost).
For a LONG time I have felt that way too little attention was paid to vocational education. Part of it is simply that the education experts are mostly bookwormish academic PhD types who wouldn't know a stick of PVC sanitary pipe from a 2x4. Consequently, the education experts seem to operate under the assumption that everyone in the world needs to go to college. I think this system is a major disservice to the ~70% of students who will not end up getting a degree. Putting non-college-material students through four years of college prep coursework in HS is a waste of everyone's time.
Part of this is that, way too often, there is almost an unstated assumption that academics is a strict dichotomy in which everyone is either:
- A college graduate, or
- A complete failure.
I strongly disagree with this assumption.
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For a LONG time I have felt that way too little attention was paid to vocational education. Part of it is simply that the education experts are mostly bookwormish academic PhD types who wouldn't know a stick of PVC sanitary pipe from a 2x4. Consequently, the education experts seem to operate under the assumption that everyone in the world needs to go to college. I think this system is a major disservice to the ~70% of students who will not end up getting a degree. Putting non-college-material students through four years of college prep coursework in HS is a waste of everyone's time.
Part of this is that, way too often, there is almost an unstated assumption that academics is a strict dichotomy in which everyone is either:
- A college graduate, or
- A complete failure.
I strongly disagree with this assumption.
Agreed.
When the excrement hits the air circulation device, nobody's clamoring for a PhD in English Lit.
But when the excrement hits the air circulation device, that PhD of English Lit will pay the plumber a mint to fix the problem.
The skilled trades is a great career choice for a lot of people who today probably think they "need" to go to college.
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judging a man for what's printed on his sheepskin is as foolish as judging him by the clothes on his back or the color of his skin
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Agreed.
When the excrement hits the air circulation device, nobody's clamoring for a PhD in English Lit.
But when the excrement hits the air circulation device, that PhD of English Lit will pay the plumber a mint to fix the problem.
The skilled trades is a great career choice for a lot of people who today probably think they "need" to go to college.
I'll add a great example of this:
In HS Geometry I learned the Pythagorean Theorem. If you don't remember it, it is the mathematical rule that states that:
A^2+B^2 = C^2
Where:
- A and B are the sides of a right triangle that make the right angle, and
- C is the side of a right triangle that does not contact the right angle.
If you are in college prep or going to be an engineer or mathematician it is probably important to learn this. If you aren't, it isn't.
Now, when I learned it, I immediately recognized it as something that, in the building trades, is often simplified as the "Rule of 3, 4, 5".
The way the "Rule of 3, 4, 5" works is that when you are building something, you can check that your corner is square by measuring three feet down one side, four feet down another side, and the distance between your 3' mark and your 4' mark will be 5' if your corner is square. If you do the math, sure enough:
3^2+4^2 = 5^2
9+16 = 25
25 = 25
Here is my point: If you try to teach the Pythagorean Theorem to a bunch of non-college-material guys they are probably going to stare out the window, throw paper airplanes, or basically anything else other than learn Pythagoras' Theorem. However, if you taught them the rule of 3, 4, 5 there is a decent chance that they might see the practical application. If you aren't going to go to college then you have no need to know that Pythagoras was a greek dude who lived in Samos 2,500 years ago and figured this out. That knowledge is unlikely to ever be useful to you. However, there is a decent chance that you could use the knowledge that if you are building a deck behind your house the corner is square when the distance between your 3' mark and your 4' mark is exactly 5'. Hopefully someone reading this will use that when building a deck behind their own house. I've built lots of decks and used that lots of times.
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UW just missed out on a transfer big named Wyatt Walker. Nearly averaged a double-double two years ago. Now headed to NC state.
I'm annoyed because UW is stupid thin up front (had three bigs who played last year, one who was kind of a SF). But he also was a no-range player, and I kind of want UW to move back toward having everyone who can at least kind of shoot.
(I was about to post on him still considering, but upon googling, it said he committed 3 minutes earlier)
Anyone else on the radar, or will they bank it or just use it on Hedstrom??
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However, there is a decent chance that you could use the knowledge that if you are building a deck behind your house the corner is square when the distance between your 3' mark and your 4' mark is exactly 5'. Hopefully someone reading this will use that when building a deck behind their own house. I've built lots of decks and used that lots of times.
I'm an electrical engineer. Calculus was a start for me, leading to multivariate calculus, differential equations, and linear algebra later on in college. I'm well acquainted with Pythagoras.
I've never heard the 3, 4, 5 rule used in building.
They should seriously tell math teachers to include this as a practical example of the theory. For people who are more abstract mathematical thinkers, it's not necessary as they already get it. But for people who are more practical and should understand real-world application, that would be a huge teaching aid.
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I'm an electrical engineer. Calculus was a start for me, leading to multivariate calculus, differential equations, and linear algebra later on in college. I'm well acquainted with Pythagoras.
I've never heard the 3, 4, 5 rule used in building.
They should seriously tell math teachers to include this as a practical example of the theory. For people who are more abstract mathematical thinkers, it's not necessary as they already get it. But for people who are more practical and should understand real-world application, that would be a huge teaching aid.
I had a freshman year Calc 3 professor burn away some interest I had in math. I liked it in high school, mostly because I was good at it. I honestly could've been pretty OK at that class at least, but the professor did not feel the need to say within the bounds of his curriculum.
I was still young, not passionate about the idea of engineering. I left that class with the sense following that path would lead far more toward the theoretical/abstract. Ended up shifting away from math, and later sciences. Turned out, academia wasn't great at making some things palatable. Oh well.
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Anyone else on the radar, or will they bank it or just use it on Hedstrom??
Unclear. Sounds like he's from Florida and proximity was big.
Could use it on Anderson too. UW is gonna have to roll with those guards next year.
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Nothing wrong with playing 3-4 guards on the floor from time to time. That's where the talent is.
Iverson is 6-5 - play him at SF once in a while. He can jump over anyone. Play him, Trice, King and Davison together, with Happ or Reuvers.
Gotta use the talent you have on hand, unless somehow Thomas and Illikainin can somehow improve dramatically. I'm not going to hold my breath there.
I read that Reuvers has put on 25 pounds since March. That is encouraging, but hard to believe at the same time - unless it's all from Teddywedgers. Heh.
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I had a freshman year Calc 3 professor burn away some interest I had in math. I liked it in high school, mostly because I was good at it. I honestly could've been pretty OK at that class at least, but the professor did not feel the need to say within the bounds of his curriculum.
I was still young, not passionate about the idea of engineering. I left that class with the sense following that path would lead far more toward the theoretical/abstract. Ended up shifting away from math, and later sciences. Turned out, academia wasn't great at making some things palatable. Oh well.
For a few more courses, through sophomore year and a couple as a junior. Then it gets good, and the theory/abstract all comes together in a nice little package called... Engineering.
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some profs are better than others at getting smart kids to their junior/senior classes
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some profs are better than others at getting smart kids to their junior/senior classes
Some smart kids are better than some profs at getting smart kids into their junior/senior classes.
The worst profs I had were not in the hard classes..
Shocking, I know.
I guess I should take that to the non-moderated board. :67:
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Nothing wrong with playing 3-4 guards on the floor from time to time. That's where the talent is.
Iverson is 6-5 - play him at SF once in a while. He can jump over anyone. Play him, Trice, King and Davison together, with Happ or Reuvers.
Gotta use the talent you have on hand, unless somehow Thomas and Illikainin can somehow improve dramatically. I'm not going to hold my breath there.
I read that Reuvers has put on 25 pounds since March. That is encouraging, but hard to believe at the same time - unless it's all from Teddywedgers. Heh.
The idea of Happ/Reuvers/Ford as the bigs is a hint worrisome. If Nate gets good, say better than sophomore Leuer, it's OK. Beyond that, it might be a 7-11 seed, which after last year, I'll take.
It speaks to my faith in Gard and the talent. I like that top 8, a lot.
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For a few more courses, through sophomore year and a couple as a junior. Then it gets good, and the theory/abstract all comes together in a nice little package called... Engineering.
I had family/friends parents in engineering (plus a nerdy friend who felt sure in 8th grade he'd land there). They had such passion for it. I couldn't match. I'm not mad I didn't do it, but always wondered. Maybe if I seek a second career, I'll get into those programs you talk about pushing. Maybe I could do it.
It's funny, that prof I mentioned, he had a kid who majored in nuclear engineering wondering what was going on. It was a bad setup. (Ironically, looking at the actual work, I could've done it well enough. I ended up letting my calc skills atrophy, thanks to part of UW's econ curriculum. I tried to pick it up after a few years off and it was not great)
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The idea of Happ/Reuvers/Ford as the bigs is a hint worrisome. If Nate gets good, say better than sophomore Leuer, it's OK. Beyond that, it might be a 7-11 seed, which after last year, I'll take.
It speaks to my faith in Gard and the talent. I like that top 8, a lot.
I think Reuvers is going to be really good. He showed flashes in a year where he wasn't even supposed to play. He's going to hard to keep off the floor this coming season.
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Local problem I know, but geesh, enough of the Romeo Langford news. Locals were going to explode if he picked anybody but IU.
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Nebraska head coach Tim Miles officially announced the hire of former Florida and Northwestern assistant coach Armon Gates on Monday afternoon.
Gates takes over the spot left by assistant coach Kenya Hunter who left the Huskers for Connecticut in April.
“I have known Armon for several years and spent quality time with him,” Miles said. “What immediately becomes clear about him is his positivity and high energy. He will be a good role model for our players. He will be an excellent teacher of the game and will do a phenomenal job recruiting, as he’s proven over the years at Northwestern, Kent State, and Loyola-Chicago. We are really happy to add Armon and his family to Husker Nation.”
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdQpApYUwAA_34_.jpg)
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Tough game for the conference to have UW kick start the games playing at X.
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National championship rematch to kick things off?
Ok
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Carsen Edwards was invited to the NBA Combine. I've been catching it on and off since I'm working from home today.
I'm in the horrible position where I want him to do well, but not so well that he remains in the draft lol...
(To be honest, if he gets feedback good enough to remain in the draft, all congratulations to him. Can't fault a kid for going for the money.)
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It's now looking like the Terps could lose 2 more players to early departure in addition to Justin Jackson. Bruno Fernando was already in play for the NBA. But now, after blowing up at the NBA combine last week, Kevin Huerter is in the conversation as a high draft pick.
Corollary: our coach might have three draftees and yet didn't even make the NIT. Just furthers the case that some are making...
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It's now looking like the Terps could lose 2 more players to early departure in addition to Justin Jackson. Bruno Fernando was already in play for the NBA. But now, after blowing up at the NBA combine last week, Kevin Huerter is in the conversation as a high draft pick.
Corollary: our coach might have three draftees and yet didn't even make the NIT. Just furthers the case that some are making...
Fernando returning. Huge for the Terps
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This makes sense for mid-major conferences. Hell paring down their conference tourneys to just a top 4 would make a lot of sense too
https://www.sbnation.com/2018/5/28/17401414/college-basketball-schedule-conference-usa-football-ideas
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Hell paring down their conference tourneys to just a top 4 would make a lot of sense too
I think Lacrosse owns the patent on that Conference Tourney format.
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Nick Ward returning
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Carson Edwards and Juwan Morgan too
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And... Be sure you're sitting down for this... I don't want any injuries when you faint from shock...
Nojel Eastern is returning for his sophomore season.
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UW is still waiting on a decision from Ethan Happ. I think he's coming back, but making money in Europe could be on the table too. Tough to tell. He's been kinda quiet.
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Fernando returning. Huge for the Terps
Yeah. Even though Huerter (who is staying in the NBA draft, it appears) is the better player, he is more easily replaced for the Terps than Fernando would be...
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Tyler Cook (Iowa), Kevin Huerter (Maryland), Charles Matthews (Michigan) and Ethan Happ (Wisconsin) are the only 4 Big Ten players left who haven't announced one way or the other yet
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Happ is coming back to Madison.
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It's now confirmed that Huerter is staying in the draft. Smart decision. Any player who is good enough shouldn't turn down that kind of guaranteed money...
https://maryland.247sports.com/Article/Kevin-Huerter-Decides-on-NBA-Draft-or-Maryland-Return--118603088
As reported (https://maryland.247sports.com/Article/Kevin-Huerter-NBA-Draft-Decision-Will-Maryland-Guard-Stay-or-Go-118604237) by IMS in recent days, that Huerter wasn't likely to withdraw from the draft because of his rising stock. In ESPN's latest mock draft, released today, Huerter is projected to go to the Atlanta Hawks with the 19th pick. Players drafted in that spot are guaranteed $5-6 million dollar contracts. All first-rounders are guaranteed three-year, multi-million dollar deals. So while Huerter could have earned more by coming back to school and going higher in the draft next year, he would've likely been leaving a lot of money on the table by leaving the draft.
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I'm guessing Tyler Cook is gone to the NBA
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Matthews returning. Down to just Cook
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Happ is coming back to Madison.
Still nothing official on this, as an announcement goes. And nothing mainstream either. One reporter from Racine, and bleacher report and ESPN Madison (both look to be relying on the Racine guy).
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Still nothing official on this, as an announcement goes. And nothing mainstream either. One reporter from Racine, and bleacher report and ESPN Madison (both look to be relying on the Racine guy).
I'm intrigued by whether or not Gard will be able to replicate Bo's success... Is there any scuttlebutt around Gard & Happ? After all, Happ would have been one of the last of Bo's recruits. I know Gard was there under Bo, but who knows what might have changed in the last few years as Gard took over...
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He's coming back according to his twitter.
There is no ill-will in the locker room with Gard. He was the lead recruiter for just about everyone in there right now.
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Cook back too
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Monday, Nov. 26
Minnesota at Boston College
Nebraska at Clemson
Tuesday, Nov. 27
Illinois at Notre Dame
Indiana at Duke
Michigan State at Louisville
Pitt at Iowa
Virginia Tech at Penn State
NC State at Wisconsin
Wednesday, Nov. 28
Purdue at Florida State
Rutgers at Miami
North Carolina at Michigan
Virginia at Maryland
Georgia Tech at Northwestern
Syracuse at Ohio State
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Beilein apparently interviewing for the Pistons
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Beilein apparently interviewing for the Pistons
Somebody want more money?
Doesn't seem like the NBA type to me. Been coaching 40+ years and never had an NBA stop.
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Somebody want more money?
Doesn't seem like the NBA type to me. Been coaching 40+ years and never had an NBA stop.
It's either to get more money, or at the end of his career something he's always wanted to try. My guess is the former, but interviewing twice makes it interesting. The part that makes me think it's a money move is how bad the Pistons job is right now.
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It might be less about more $ for him, and more about securing more for his assistants. The assistant positions were a revolving door for a few years, and I think he has a couple coaches now that he hopes to keep. The defensive improvement under Yaklich has been remarkable. He will be a hot commodity for jobs. Guessing Beilein looks down the hall and sees all the resources football gets and he desires a similar allotment.
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Beilein returning. Not sure what the Pistons are waiting on. Sounds like Casey was their #1 choice, Beilein was their #2, and they don't really have a #3, but they've offered none of them. Unless they've offered Casey and Beilein behind closed doors, and knew a deal wasn't happening, and didn't want to Tennessee the whole thing.
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The annual United Center game next season will be against a Big Ten team. That should draw more folks than UIC.
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@Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) posted this in the old thread but it belongs here:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgEo-OYX0AASHYQ.jpg)
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Penn State's Mike Watkins arrested on a possible gun charge on campus? Third arrest in two years. First one was for criminal mischief, second for a bar fight.
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Couldn't find this thread for some reason.
Probably because I searched "hoops" and "Basketball" neither of which appear in the thread title.
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Couldn't find this thread for some reason.
Probably because I searched "hoops" and "Basketball" neither of which appear in the thread title.
That would be my fault because I started this thread. I really didn't think of searches, but good point.
It has been edited.
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Wisconsin picked up 6-7 forward Tyler Wahl, No. 95 in the composite rankings.
Seems like a guy who does a little of everything, though I can’t find his shooting splits.
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Encouraging news for OSU. They picked up 5 star PG DJ Carton out of Iowa, who chose the Bucks over Michigan and Indiana. That's two top 30 players for the class, and Holtmann looks like he can recruit.
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Encouraging news for OSU. They picked up 5 star PG DJ Carton out of Iowa, who chose the Bucks over Michigan and Indiana. That's two top 30 players for the class, and Holtmann looks like he can recruit.
Good pickup. Kid looks pretty athletic. Some UW fans are very salty the Badgers went from seemingly very in the mix to very out of it (despite the fact UW’s guard situation is kind of backlogged)
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I thought he was a big IU lean. There's two other guards Purdue is in on that we thought might be much bigger Purdue leans if Carton went IU. So we might be battling IU on those two now .
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Good pickup. Kid looks pretty athletic. Some UW fans are very salty the Badgers went from seemingly very in the mix to very out of it (despite the fact UW’s guard situation is kind of backlogged)
Gard could not promise him early playing time. Trice, Davison and Strickland will all be there. UW didn't even make the final 6, despite being the kid's first P5 offer (another case of UW finding talent very early and others swooping in*).
OSU will not have a PG on the roster by the time the kid enrolls. It was a no-brainer and a good move for him because he wanted to play early and often.
* This happens too often. I'd like to see the staff be able to close more often on these kids.
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Gard could not promise him early playing time. Trice, Davison and Strickland will all be there. UW didn't even make the final 6, despite being the kid's first P5 offer (another case of UW finding talent very early and others swooping in*).
OSU will not have a PG on the roster by the time the kid enrolls. It was a no-brainer and a good move for him because he wanted to play early and often.
* This happens too often. I'd like to see the staff be able to close more often on these kids.
About sums it up.
Here's the thing, I don't know that you're ever gonna get a really good guard in the situation UW is in. They have three primary ball-handlers who will have two or three years of eligibility when a kid in this class arrives. Plus they'll have a shooting guard who will be a senior. Of the ones who are on campus, each has at one point averaged in the high 20s in minutes per game. And they took point guards three years in a row.
The only kid I could think of who committed to a situation where there was a logjam when he arrived was Koenig, but when he committed, the two point guards when he arrived had 92 career minutes.
This staff needs to close on some dang bigs. That frontcourt is starting to look very thin.
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Beilein had double bypass heart surgery this morning. Seems to be doing ok. I certainly hope so, never met anyone who disliked him. Seems like a genuinely good guy.
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Oh dang. I had no idea. I hope the same.
As for the procedure, I've long been amazed by it. They dissect a *vein* from your leg, disconnect a blocked artery in your heart, attach the leg vein where the heart artery just was ... and over time that vein responds to the new environment and becomes arterialized.
Physiology is wild.
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Beilein had double bypass heart surgery this morning. Seems to be doing ok. I certainly hope so, never met anyone who disliked him. Seems like a genuinely good guy.
Good luck to him.
Likewise, I've never heard a negative word about him from basically any angle. The only thing I disliked was Purdue having to play his teams, because they were freakin' tough! ;-)
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NCAA announced several changes, most notably being (a) undrafted players can return to school; (b) certain "elite" recruits will be allowed to sign with agents; and (c) schools must honor 4 year scholarships for players who leave early, meaning if the kid comes back later to complete his degree, the school still has to honor the scholarship.
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No way they actually left (b) that vague.
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No way they actually left (b) that vague.
Their release pretty much said exactly that.
Their full release essentially said USA basketball determines who those "elite" recruits who qualify would be.
From the article
Other significant changes announced on Tuesday include players being able to hire agents as high schoolers. Players deemed "elite" by USA Basketball can hire an agent starting on July 1 before their senior year. Agents must be certified by the NCAA to enter into an agreement with a high school or college player.
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LOL, to which USA basketball responded by saying they were not consulted, and do not want this responsibility. Oh NCAA, how you manage to screw everything up, every time. Granted here the biggest problem is the NBA eligibility rule, which needs to be overhauled.
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I wonder if the NBA is going to restrict their rules now... Eventually they're going to get tired of all the underclassmen wanting to come for "evaluations". I wonder if they'll do something to change the rule such that you can only officially enter the draft once. If you go undrafted and go back to school, well, sorry, you don't get to declare next year.
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Nebraska basketball added immediate help to its roster on Thursday, as Mississippi Gulf Coast CC forward Dedoch Chan committed to the Huskers while on a multi-day visit to Lincoln.
The 6-foot-8, 215-pound Chan played his high school basketball at John Marshall High School in Rochester, Minnesota, and graduated from high school in 2017 before going through the junior college route.
Chan, who was a full qualifier out of high school, will have three seasons of eligibility with the Big Red.
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Big Ten schedule will be released Tuesday at 3 on BTN
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlJX0_rWwAENCTl.jpg)
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RPI now completely abandoned and replaced with NET
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-08-22/division-i-mens-basketball-committee-adopts-new-ranking
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The 2019 class, which was looking very blah, just picked up the #1 recruit in MI out of nowhere, after he had seemingly moved on. Much needed considering we had no commits thus far
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The 2019 class, which was looking very blah, just picked up the #1 recruit in MI out of nowhere, after he had seemingly moved on. Much needed considering we had no commits thus far
What are phrases you rarely hear Spartan basketball fans utter, Alex?
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Ahh, wasn't posted on here, but Purdue got SG Brandon Newman out of Valpo for 2019. Rated 75 nationally by Rivals, 117th nationally by 247.
This currently has us with the 16th-ranked recruiting class and 3rd in the B1G, according to 247. At this point we have one more scholarship definitely open for 2019, and Painter has suggested he'll oversign by one given the likelihood of Carsen Edwards going into the draft.
Purdue's also deep in the list for PF Malik Hall, ranked 49th by Rivals and 75th by 247. 247 has a 100% Crystal Ball prediction for Hall to Purdue, but he has an official visit to MSU in early Oct.
There are a few other highly rated players out there remaining, but at the moment I wouldn't consider Purdue a favorite for any of them.
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What are phrases you rarely hear Spartan basketball fans utter, Alex?
I think the Izzo stuff has stuck there, we lost a guy we thought was a lock to DePaul (which is a little shady in its own right), then just lost another Plan A kid to Tennessee. This kid early seemed like MSU for sure, then seemed like almost no way at all. He's listed as a PG, but nobody thinks that's where he'll stick, he's more of a combo guard, but not a great shooter. Reminds me a lot of Keith Appling. Hopefully on the court only.
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Purdue makes final 5 for 6'11" PF Zeke Nnaji out of MN, and has an official visit schedule Nov 2-4.
Final 5 were Purdue, Arizona, UCLA, Kansas, Baylor. Purdue/Baylor--two schools who usually don't compete H2H with the other 3 for recruits--largely seen as inclusions because of their proven ability to develop big men.
I personally think it's still a long shot for the Boilers... But...
(https://i.imgur.com/ex0rqf4.jpg)
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4 star forward EJ Liddell pledges to the Bucks out of Illinois for the 2019 class
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Big Ten Basketball Coaches Rank the Best Jobs in the Conference
by Jeff Goodman
This is the fourth in Stadium’s “Conference Chain of Command” series in which we polled a handful of veteran coaches in every league to determine the best JOBS in each league, all the way down to the ones that are the most difficult.
This week’s Chain of Command is being published on Thursday instead of Friday due to Big Ten Media Days taking place on Thursday.
Here are the eight categories that were utilized to determine the overall rankings. We did not utilize buy games as a category for the Big Ten because just about every program has the resources to buy a similar number of games.
Tradition – The history of the program
Media Exposure – Games on national television
Game Atmosphere – Includes attendance
Facilities – Not just the arena, but also practice facilities, weight room, locker rooms, etc.
Selling Pros – Being able to sell not only NBA players, but also those who play overseas
Admission Requirements – Ranked from easiest to get into to most difficult
Budget/Resources – Includes coaches’ salaries, recruiting budget, travel budget, private planes, cost of attendance, etc.
Geographical Recruiting Base – Proximity to players
This is how polling in the Big Ten shook out among coaches who voted, with one being the best and nine being the worst:
(https://s23455.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Conference-Chain-Big-Ten.jpg)
1. Indiana (98) – The Hoosiers are one of the more storied programs in college basketball history, but most of the success came decades ago. They have five national titles on their resume and eight Final Four appearances. Tom Crean took over a mess, but still underachieved, only going to four NCAA tourneys in nine years and failing to get past the Sweet 16.
Where they win: “The history, the tradition. Fans are always at the games wearing red, even when they aren’t that good, they show up. People in the state care about Indiana basketball.” – Big Ten head coach
The knock: “They haven’t been good in a long time. The fans need to get over it. They still have catching up to do in terms of facilities. It’s a great job, but it’s not quite as good as some think.” – Big Ten assistant
2. Michigan State (97.5) – The Spartans have gone to nine Final Fours, including seven since Tom Izzo took over in 1995. Michigan State isn’t on the top-tier among college hoops jobs, but Izzo has helped make it a clear top-10 gig. There’s plenty of support from administration to fans, and no shortage of resources.
Where they win: “Tradition, atmosphere and support at a high level. The Breslin Center is probably the best place in the league to play. It’s pretty sweet.” – Big Ten assistant
The knock: “There’s not much, except for the fact that they might actually be second in their own state in that Michigan is a far more powerful brand – especially nationally.” – Big Ten administrator
3. Ohio State (82) – The Buckeyes have plenty of history, albeit significantly less in hoops than both Indiana and Michigan State. Ohio State remains a football school, but the Buckeyes won a national title in 1960 and have lost in the championship game in 1939, 1961, 1962 and 2007. Ohio State has had plenty of talent, from Jerry Lucas to Jim Jackson to Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. Chris Holtmann is in his second season after taking over for Thad Matta, who went to nine NCAA tourneys in 13 seasons (the Buckeyes were ineligible his first year in Columbus).
Where they win: “It’s the flagship program in the state, and there are a ton of good players in the state of Ohio.” – Big Ten assistant
The knock: “I’m not a big fan of their arena. It’s not really a huge home court advantage and the fans are far from the court.” – Big Ten assistant
4. Michigan (75.5) – When you think of Michigan hoops, you think of the Fab Five – the group that lost in the national title game in 1992 and 1993. But it’s a program, while having some down years, that has churned out no shortage of pros, and also gone to eight Final Fours. Current coach John Beilein has taken the Wolverines to a pair of Final Four appearances.
Where they win: “Their brand. It’s national.” – Big Ten athletic director
The knock: “Football school … And the fans are wine and cheesy, a little arrogant.” – Big Ten assistant
5. Maryland (69) – The atmosphere and fan support is near the top of the league and there’s certainly a solid tradition (a national title in 2002 and 14 Sweet 16’s), but Maryland hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations of what some might consider a top-10 job nationally. The recruiting base ranks first in the league, but the budget/resources are lacking compared to the top programs in the Big Ten.
Where they win: “Location, location, location. They have an abundance of players, great fan support and a terrific arena.” – Big Ten assistant coach
The knock: “No identity in the Big Ten. They shouldn’t even be in the league.” – Big Ten head coach
6. Purdue (68) – The Boilermakers have gone to the Final Four twice – in 1969 and 1980. Matt Painter has taken them to the Sweet 16 four times in his tenure, and found a way to keep the program nationally relevant for the most part since taking over in 2005, but hasn’t been able to get them past the Sweet 16.
Where they win: “They are always pretty good, so I’d say tradition, I guess. I also think they are in a good location in that you can drive to Indy, Chicago and even St. Louis and Ohio to get players.” – Big Ten assistant
The knock: “The city of West Lafayette. It’s just … not very good.” – Big Ten assistant
7. Illinois (62) – The Illini haven’t won a national title, but went to the championship game in 2005 and have been to four other Final Fours – in 1949, 1951, 1952 and 1989. There’s a decent tradition, but the fans are a little unrealistic with regards to expectations. Bill Self was successful in his brief stint, Bruce Weber went to six NCAA tournaments from 2003-12, but John Groce struggled in his time in Champaign.
Where they win: “Location. Chicago has a ton of players.” – Big Ten head coach
The knock: “The fan base has no clue – such unrealistic expectations. They are nuts. Plus, Chicago has players – but it might take a little more than a scholarship to get a lot of them.” – Big Ten assistant coach
8. Wisconsin (61) – The Badgers had a heck of a run a few years ago, going to the Final Four in 2014 and 2015 with a group that produced a pair of NBA players in Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. Bo Ryan was a lock to take the Badgers to the NCAA tourney every year, but one thing that hurts the program is the lack of high-end talent consistently in the state.
Where they win: “Madison. What a great college town. I love that place, and I think kids love it there also. Also, 99 percent of the kids in the state want to go to Wisconsin.” – Big Ten assistant coach
The knock: “They are still playing that style. It’s hard to sell, especially to athletes and top-50 recruits.” – Big Ten assistant coach
9. Nebraska (54) – The good news? The Cornhuskers have big-time facilities. The bad? There’s virtually no players in the state. Nebraska has been to the NCAA tourney just seven times in all, and just once since 1998. It’s a football school for sure, and it’s a tough job to be the Nebraska men’s basketball coach.
Where they win: “The facilities are ridiculous. You can make a case that they are the best in the league. Fans also show up – because there’s nothing else to do in Lincoln.” – Big Ten head coach
The knock: “There’s no players in the state, and probably just the perception of the state of Nebraska.” – Big Ten assistant
10. Minnesota (42) – There’s actually a decent tradition with the program, going to the Final Four in 1997 and going to the NCAA tourney five times since 2005. In five seasons, Richard Pitino has gone to the NCAA tourney once. Minnesota ranks in the bottom half of every category.
Where they win: “The new practice facility is phenomenal, and you can sell Minneapolis and St. Paul. It’s an unbelievable, underrated city. They also have a good fan base.” – Big Ten assistant coach
The knock: “The weather. It blows. And unless you are really nostalgic, Williams Arena.” – Big Ten assistant coach
11. Iowa (40) – Lute Olson took the Hawkeyes to five NCAA tournament appearances in his last five seasons, George Raveling went to a pair in three seasons and Tom Davis went nine times in his 13 years with the program. Steve Alford struggled in his eight years, going twice, Todd Lickliter went 0-for-3 and Fran McCaffery is 3-for-8 thus far. The lone category where Iowa ranks in the top half of the league is in being able to get kids into school.
Where they win: “The state has a lot of dogs named Carver. There’s no doubt that Iowa is the state school. It’s also easy to get kids into school, and keep them in.” – Big Ten head coach
The knock: “There aren’t a ton of players in Iowa, and you aren’t going into Chicago, Indiana or Ohio and beating guys for kids in those states.” – Big Ten head coach
12. Northwestern (35) – Chris Collins took the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history in 2017. There’s just not much tradition, but the major selling point is the academic component. There’s also no shortage of talent in the area, but the question is whether Northwestern can get the kids into school.
Where they win: “The degree. It’s what you have to sell. The academics and also the city of Chicago.” – Big Ten administrator
The knock: “There are so many other things to do in Chicago on the list. It’s way, way down the list.” – Big Ten assistant
13. Rutgers (31) – Rutgers actually played in the Final Four back in 1976, but there hasn’t been much to brag about if you’re a Scarlet Knights fan recently. There hasn’t been an NCAA tourney appearance since 1991, when Bob Wenzel was running things. Kevin Bannon couldn’t do it, neither could Gary Waters, Fred Hill, Mike Rice or Eddie Jordan.
Where they win: “The best thing about Rutgers? Whoever plays them twice (laugh). I actually think they’ll be better and (Steve) Pikiell has done a good job, but it’s just a really tough job.” – Big Ten assistant coach
The knock: “It just doesn’t have any juice to it. It doesn’t really belong or fit in the Big Ten. It’s hard to sell kids in the northeast to go to Rutgers – where every other school except for Maryland is a flight.” – Big Ten assistant coach
14. Penn State (25) – There have actually been nine NCAA Tournament appearances for the Nittany Lions, but just one since 2001. Pat Chambers has knocked on the door, but has come up empty thus far in seven seasons. Ed DeChellis was 1-for-8 before being let go. Penn State ranked in the bottom four of every category except for admission requirements.
Where they win: “Penn State football. Honestly, that’s the biggest selling point.” – Big Ten assistant
The knock: “They don’t have enough support, not for the men’s basketball program.” – Big Ten head coach
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So I can't quibble with most of what they have for Purdue, except one thing...
How does Indiana get rated as the 4th-best recruiting base, while Purdue is 10th?
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So I can't quibble with most of what they have for Purdue, except one thing...
How does Indiana get rated as the 4th-best recruiting base, while Purdue is 10th?
Maybe the more national brand of Indiana makes the local base less of an issue?
Either way, there's no way it's behind Minnesota, and the way in state talent has gone in Michigan, I wouldn't put them behind UM or MSU either. Granted, I think that's a tough one for basketball, as I think most of the schools recruit the MI-OH-IN region on fairly equal footing geographically. I've never really thought MSU lost an Ohio kid to OSU or an Indiana kid to IU or Purdue based on geography. I agree Maryland should be #1 there, but does Northwestern have any pull with Chicago kids? Same with Rutgers and NJ prep schools. So overall, I'm not sure that one should even be a criteria beyond maybe being a boost for Maryland.
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A Big Ten head coach in basketball said we shouldn't even be in the league?
If I were to guess, I'd say it's probably that jerk off at Northwestern.
So, it's actually harder to get into Maryland than Wisconsin? I heard that was impossible.
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The knock: “The fan base has no clue – such unrealistic expectations. They are nuts. Plus, Chicago has players – but it might take a little more than a scholarship to get a lot of them.” – Big Ten assistant coach
Not sure what this means (and not relating this to the Illini, but as it appears this is just about Chicago players). I see this as being taken two ways:
1) The players there can't get admitted due to academics.
2) Chicago players are so damn corrupt that you have to grease palms to get kids to attend.
I wonder...
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Maybe the more national brand of Indiana makes the local base less of an issue?
Either way, there's no way it's behind Minnesota, and the way in state talent has gone in Michigan, I wouldn't put them behind UM or MSU either. Granted, I think that's a tough one for basketball, as I think most of the schools recruit the MI-OH-IN region on fairly equal footing geographically. I've never really thought MSU lost an Ohio kid to OSU or an Indiana kid to IU or Purdue based on geography. I agree Maryland should be #1 there, but does Northwestern have any pull with Chicago kids? Same with Rutgers and NJ prep schools. So overall, I'm not sure that one should even be a criteria beyond maybe being a boost for Maryland.
That's what I don't get. I think IU has better recruiting results in the Indianapolis area, but they referred to geography as proximity. And Purdue battles IU for most of those kids, and occasionally wins some of them.
Purdue additionally has I think a better pipeline to Ft Wayne and Northwest Indiana ["the Region"] than IU does. And we pull kids from Ohio, Illinois, even just got Trevion Williams out of MI.
So I don't see any reason IU should be 4th and Purdue 10th for recruiting base.
Again, I can't really quibble with any point of ranking other than that one, which just doesn't make sense.
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A Big Ten head coach in basketball said we shouldn't even be in the league?
If I were to guess, I'd say it's probably that jerk off at Northwestern.
So, it's actually harder to get into Maryland than Wisconsin? I heard that was impossible.
Someone [likely the same assistant] said the same about Rutgers.
But it says it's an assistant coach. I could imagine Collins, with his Duke ties, getting cheeky about the former ACC teams that came over, but if it's an assistant and not a head coach, I don't see any assistant on the NU coaching staff that has ACC ties. And please, like Northwestern basketball has an "identity"? So I wouldn't necessarily point to NU first.
Maybe I'm wrong though.
I could easily see this being an assistant from one of the more traditional powers in the B1G, too. Throwing shade on the newbies from the East Coast...
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A Big Ten head coach in basketball said we shouldn't even be in the league?
If I were to guess, I'd say it's probably that jerk off at Northwestern.
So, it's actually harder to get into Maryland than Wisconsin? I heard that was impossible.
There is a whole lot of BS in that thing, including that last part, but one thing I can surely say is a lot of coaches didn't like the last round of expansion for a lot of reasons. I imagine those who are still around still don't like it.
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How does OSU finish ahead of Illinois in game atmosphere? Or anyone else, for that matter?
That's just downright ridiculous.
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How does OSU finish ahead of Illinois in game atmosphere? Or anyone else, for that matter?
That's just downright ridiculous.
I think I'd have them #11. Still better than NW, PSU or Rutgers (although The RAC is good if Rutgers is good), but no, not ahead of Iowa, Minnesota or Illinois. Granted Iowa's has seemingly had a steep decline in the past decade based on how it appears on TV.
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Illinois fans can be apathetic. If they are not playing well, the place goes quiet and stays quiet - or they leave.
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I think Miles signed the first in-state scholarship player from Nebraska in over a decade a couple years ago.
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Not sure what this means (and not relating this to the Illini, but as it appears this is just about Chicago players). I see this as being taken two ways:
1) The players there can't get admitted due to academics.
2) Chicago players are so damn corrupt that you have to grease palms to get kids to attend.
I wonder...
I noticed that too and I think he meant #2. #1 only makes sense if you think that Chicago area BB talent is less academically capable than BB talent from other regions and that just doesn't make any sense. Chicago players being corrupt is something I have heard rumblings of before though. I think he was referring to that.
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I think Miles signed the first in-state scholarship player from Nebraska in over a decade a couple years ago.
Two 3* guys this year, one signed with the Huskers. One last year, went to WVU. None in 2016, but a 4* in 2015, who signed with Creighton. 4* in 2013 signed with Louisville. 4* in 2012 signed with Iowa.
So going back to 2010, Nebraska has produced three 4* guys, and three 3* guys.
Same time frame, just for comparison, since Iowa was the only one ranked lower: 2018 had two 4* and a 3*; 2017 had two 3*; 2016 had four 3*; 2015 had five 3*.
I'm not going to even go back farther, based on what their criteria seems to be, Nebraska should be below Iowa.
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I noticed that too and I think he meant #2. #1 only makes sense if you think that Chicago area BB talent is less academically capable than BB talent from other regions and that just doesn't make any sense. Chicago players being corrupt is something I have heard rumblings of before though. I think he was referring to that.
Not rumblings, it's fairly well known
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Also, to consider with all of these rankings, I think they polled the coaches on all of them. So they aren't saying this is definitive, this is the perception of the other league coaches. I think that matters particularly for the academic and recruiting base rankings.
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Someone [likely the same assistant] said the same about Rutgers.
But it says it's an assistant coach. I could imagine Collins, with his Duke ties, getting cheeky about the former ACC teams that came over, but if it's an assistant and not a head coach, I don't see any assistant on the NU coaching staff that has ACC ties. And please, like Northwestern basketball has an "identity"? So I wouldn't necessarily point to NU first.
Maybe I'm wrong though.
I could easily see this being an assistant from one of the more traditional powers in the B1G, too. Throwing shade on the newbies from the East Coast...
LOL!
Is that little assistant turd still on Ohio State's staff?
Hint: Another "dookie"
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^^^ Your obsession with Dook is not healthy. I can't stand them as much as the next guy but man, you are over the top.
As for Chicago players... No thanks. It's all about street ball and street agents. That adds up to big egos, slimy recruiting and un-coachable players.
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^^^ Your obsession with Dook is not healthy. I can't stand them as much as the next guy but man, you are over the top.
As for Chicago players... No thanks. It's all about street ball and street agents. That adds up to big egos, slimy recruiting and un-coachable players.
Only time I think about them, is when I'm in this thread, and it's relevant to me.
Would make sense, since you don't see anything from me 99.999999% of my life.
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My son played Meanstreets (THE Chicago AAU program) over the summer. Most of those kids were already making more than me.
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Isn't that Tai Streets' gig? I think they might be in a little trouble.. but there is a thread for that.
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To keep it on track, I think it'll be fun to have a year where the team is good, but without the weird pressures of last year.
I'm also really excited to see what Nick Ward can do. He draws the ire, and he plays an outdated style, that really hurt MSU defensively at times last year, but I'm hopeful that he's ready to take a big step forward. The way Izzo's system is, typically guys bigs don't contribute until their junior year, but Ward has contributed as an underclassman at a level MSU hasn't had since probably Paul Davis, 15 years ago.
For comparison purposes, Freshman/Sophomroe averages of some of the other good 4/5s in the past decade for MSU, and how quickly we forget how little they did in their first two years on campus
Payne: 5.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 13.5 mpg
Costello: 2.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 10.4 mpg
Nix: 2.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 8.0 mpg
Roe: 6.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 19.3 mpg
Ward is at 13.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg and 19.4 mpg
Has basketball changed enough that it won't matter, and his ceiling is what it is due to body type. That you have to be a 7 footer to get away with playing the way he does? Possibly. But I'm excited to hopefully find out not.
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A Big Ten head coach in basketball said we shouldn't even be in the league?
If I were to guess, I'd say it's probably that jerk off at Northwestern.
So, it's actually harder to get into Maryland than Wisconsin? I heard that was impossible.
And only an assistant coach said Rutgers didn't belong?!?
I still believe Maryland aligns very well with the rest of the conference. I'm happy that you are part of our little corner of the universe.
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Isn't that Tai Streets' gig? I think they might be in a little trouble.. but there is a thread for that.
Usually (if for other teams or for Michigan in a different sport) the backlash for something like that would be intense. But it's barely showed up in articles or even message boards. It's a testament to how much trust everyone has for Beilein and the reputation he's built with a consistent kind of character over decades. (...) It also doesn't hurt that Michigan wasn't recruiting Bowen. But still.
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Usually (if for other teams or for Michigan in a different sport) the backlash for something like that would be intense. But it's barely showed up in articles or even message boards. It's a testament to how much trust everyone has for Beilein and the reputation he's built with a consistent kind of character over decades. (...) It also doesn't hurt that Michigan wasn't recruiting Bowen. But still.
I posted my response about that in the scandal thread. The line is so hazy you can't even see it. As you said, UM wasn't recruing him, and Streets is a former football player working on behalf of an AAU basketball team and a shoe company. The fact that he used to play for UM is an unrelated coincidence. I'd say there's no way anything comes from this, but it's the NCAA, so I hate dealing in absolutes.
I have no idea if Streets and UM had any ongoing relationship, but to protect themselves, and for optics, I imagine they now don't. Hell, Beilein may have already been intentionally avoiding recruiting kids from that team to be totally safe for all we know.
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Fantastic news
https://twitter.com/BFQuinn/status/1050875199518859265?s=19
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I have no idea if Streets and UM had any ongoing relationship, but to protect themselves, and for optics, I imagine they now don't.
That's what I was thinking. Do they call that "excommunication?" I know there's a word for this with boosters, but I can't remember what it is.
Hell, Beilein may have already been intentionally avoiding recruiting kids from that team to be totally safe for all we know.
I hadn't considered that. But it does sound like a very John approach**.
**(the same kind of approach that might treat "ordering subs with your grandchildren" to celebrate a tourney win like it's some sort of reckless bender: LINK (https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2013/03/michigans_john_beilein_celebra.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+WolverinesSports+%28Michigan+Wolverines+Sports%29&utm_content=Google+Reader))
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NCAA officially grants UW's King and Trice medical hardships, making them a RS freshman and RS sophomore respectively, rather than a junior and a sophomore.
Add in the fact that most Wisconsin basketball players are on campus for roughly 8 seasons, and Wisconsin's backcourt looks pretty solid for the next decade.
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KenPom projection came out today with MSU winning the Big Ten at 13-7.
MSU, or whoever, the fact that 13-7 projects to a conference title shows the difference from last year, where the top 4 elite, and then it plummeted. Should be a less top heavy, but deeper conference this year. More NCAA bids, but less NCAA success.
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Seems like it could be a really fun B1G season
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Seems like it could be a really fun B1G season
Agree.
I know very little about the new guys other than they're highly ranked.
That and Turgeon out in front with his, "we're very young", excuse as per usual.
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Seems like it could be a really fun B1G season
Agreed. Last year, unless UM, PU and OSU were playing each other, I had very little interest in non MSU conference games. Won't be the case this year
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NCAA officially grants UW's King and Trice medical hardships, making them a RS freshman and RS sophomore respectively, rather than a junior and a sophomore.
Add in the fact that most Wisconsin basketball players are on campus for roughly 8 seasons, and Wisconsin's backcourt looks pretty solid for the next decade.
Those kids now need to be good. They’re young and promising there, which is nice, but it seems recruits know that, which is less nice.
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Those kids now need to be good. They’re young and promising there, which is nice, but it seems recruits know that, which is less nice.
What are you thinking for this year, my Badger bro? I hopeful they can start a new NCAA streak, but I'm cautious. They need to stay healthy for sure.
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I feel optimistic about the boilers this year headed into bball season. Interested to see Carsen play with the ball a lot more this year and how that translates to increased production. Have some young guys to fill some spots, but recruiting has been solid and think they will come along. Haarms development should give Purdue a bit of a new look, not always throwing it in to the low post, lots of high ball screens and 5's that can shoot from the outside.
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What are you thinking for this year, my Badger bro? I hopeful they can start a new NCAA streak, but I'm cautious. They need to stay healthy for sure.
I'm cautious as well. I'm picking 21 wins, with room for more. It used to be, we could trust people would grow and step into new roles. The last three years, I've seen faltering in that trust.
I think Happ will be good. I think Davison will be good in whatever role they use him in. I think Prtizl will be fine however he's used. Here's my questions:
1. Can Nate Reuvers be the player I think he can? If he can shoot decently, not foul off the floor and eat up backup center minutes, I'm pleased. If he's a strong No. 2 big and top-4 scorer, even better. But it took Leuer, a very good player, til year 3 to get stable.
2. How does the backcourt shake out? They have three heavy-minute guys. Davison will play a lot. Will Trice, even after a rough go last season? If Trice does, how does that effect Prtizl/Davison. Do they go three-guard
3. What happens with Iverson. I could see him play 30 minutes because he's a vet and stopper. I could see him fall because he can't shoot and makes hideous mistakes.
4. What are Ford and King? There's rumors Ford took a jump, and he's really the No. 3 big behind Nate and Happ. Can he be a 20 MPG power forward and occasional wing? Can he defend? Can he do something beyond shoot? (I don't know if UW needs much more). King feels like next year's SF. His skills right now seem like a UW shooting guard, only Davison and Pritzl are more than the minutes needed there, and Iverson is at the 3. My gut is King is in the 5-7 minute range, defends, spaces the floor, but there might be more there.
The schedule is a bear. If the league is good, that doesn't help. I think they make the dance. I'm hopeful they do it comfortably, but the last three years hurt my confidence.
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MSU #10, UM #19, Purdue #24 in preseason AP Poll
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MSU #10, UM #19, Purdue #24 in preseason AP Poll
Indiana #28, Nebraska #30, Maryland #31, Wisconsin #32
Can't believe OSU got no votes
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MSU #10, UM #19, Purdue #24 in preseason AP Poll
I'm really surprised Duke is not #1.
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The top ten story has a lot of overlap with the college basketball scandal story.
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I'm really surprised Duke is not #1.
I think we've learned by now that just going all in on 1 and dones is a good way to be really, really good, but not #1. Kansas I think deserves it. They look a lot like Villanova to me, with a ton of big time recruits, but guys who now have stuck around a few years.
Nevada's team if they can put it all together is very interesting too. They return their 3 best players from a really good team, added 6 transfers who averaged double digit points at their own schools, and I think 2 top 40 recruits. If Musselman can put that all together, they could be like national champion good, but it also could totally blow up in his face too. Nevada is not a place you typically wind up coaching if you want to be a guy balancing egos and PT.
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I think we've learned by now that just going all in on 1 and dones is a good way to be really, really good, but not #1. Kansas I think deserves it. They look a lot like Villanova to me, with a ton of big time recruits, but guys who now have stuck around a few years.
Nevada's team if they can put it all together is very interesting too. They return their 3 best players from a really good team, added 6 transfers who averaged double digit points at their own schools, and I think 2 top 40 recruits. If Musselman can put that all together, they could be like national champion good, but it also could totally blow up in his face too. Nevada is not a place you typically wind up coaching if you want to be a guy balancing egos and PT.
Those Memphis transfers help KU a lot. Granted, they might lose the one kid to the NCAA.
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Early thoughts on Michigan:
PG - Zavier Simpson returns as the starter. He'll continue to be a defensive-minded player, but supposedly his shot has improved, and he became a pretty good driver and passer towards the end of last year. For backup minutes, Jaaron Simmons is gone, but Eli Brooks showed potential even as his minutes declined once BigTen play started. David DeJulius comes in to compete, as well, and is supposedly more skilled. Both of them could also see time at shooting guard.
SG - Abdur-Rahkman is gone, but Jordan Poole should be ready for major minutes so long as he becomes more consistent and isn't a major liability defensively. I think he's a future pro, but probably won't be good enough to pro after this year. Backing him up will be the aforementioned PGs or Adrien Nunez, who is a late pickup from NYC and is hyped up as a great 3 point shooter, along with the size to become a good defender.
SF - Charles Matthews is still the starter here. Hopefully he's improved his shooting and ball control. If so, then he should have a big year, since his defense and rebounding are already quite strong. Highly hyped freshman Ignas Brazdeikis will probably see most of his playing time backing him up. He's supposedly a very offensively skilled player, so hopefully his defense is at least decent.
PF - Isaiah Livers will probably be the nominal starter since he's the only returning player at this position. I expect he'll continue to improve on offense will being a solid defender and rebounder. Brazdeikis will also get backup minutes here, along with Brandon Johns, who was also highly recruited.
C - Jon Teske will take over here, and he played well as a backup last year, especially late, so I'm not too concerned about replacing Wagner. Behind him is Austin Davis, who's not as skilled but should still be decent enough of a defender. Colin Castleton is a skilled freshman center, but like Wagner's first year, it sounds like he won't be ready to play major minutes this year.
As for the schedule:
None of Michigan's guarantee game opponents are that good (Western Michigan, Chattanooga, and Holy Cross being the best, with the others being Norfolk State, Air Force, and Binghamton). @Villanova and home against North Carolina are the toughest games, with the other good games being South Carolina, and neutral site games vs George Washington and Providence or South Carolina, again. Point being, they should go 10-2 if not 11-1 in non-con play.
I think they can go 14-6 or 15-5 in the BigTen, as well. They avoid trips to Lincoln, West Lafayette, and Columbus, though they also don't get home games against Illinois, Iowa, and Rutgers.
Depending on the BigTen tournament results, which they've won the past 2 years despite playing 4 games both times, that would get them to something like 26-8, which should be good enough for a top 4/5 seed.
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Interesting on the rankings, wasn't IU picked to finish 3rd in the league? IU fans are beside themselves with Romeo, I have not seen him play, but have heard from some that have say he is a good player, but he is not the savior the IU fans believe he is. We will see.
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I've seen him play several times. He's very athletic but he doesn't play like that type of guy. He's so skilled and efficient that he makes things look effortless. He'll make tough shots look easy and his expression and demeanor never changes. My biggest question on him is his defense. His high school coach hid him in the middle of a zone or by putting him on the worst player on the other team, which is understandable. I'm sure that Miller will make him play defense and buy into the system.
I don't see him averaging 20-something a game but I think more in the range of 14-16ppg which should be plenty with Juwan Morgan and the other guys they've got returning. The early word out of practices and workouts is that Justin Smith and Al Durham have been very good and that Robert Phinisee is the other freshman most likely to get extended PT.
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2019 4* forward Malik Hall set to announce on Thursday. Down to Purdue, Oregon, and MSU.
247 crystal ball has him at 67% Purdue, 33% Oregon. I've read that Oregon has another target at his position, Quincy Guerrier, set to announce on Wednesday, but it's unclear whether he's waiting to find out if that player is picking Oregon ahead of him. In some ways that doesn't make sense, though, as Malik is higher-rated than Quincy, so you'd think if he was planning on attending Oregon, he'd jump ahead of Quincy.
MSU has no share of the crystal ball, but having watched Purdue / MSU recruiting battles before, I'm not going to assume that means anything at this point.
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I'd be shocked if it's anything but Purdue
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Apparently MSU played close with, but lost to #3 Gonzaga in a super secret scrimmage where MSU had 19 turnovers.
Not sure we can beat Gonzaga in March, certainly didn't expect them to do so in October. Curious as to how close, close is.
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I'd be shocked if it's anything but Purdue
Hope you're right.
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Apparently MSU played close with, but lost to #3 Gonzaga in a super secret scrimmage where MSU had 19 turnovers.
Not sure we can beat Gonzaga in March, certainly didn't expect them to do so in October. Curious as to how close, close is.
Purdue again had their secret scrimmage with WVU. Third year in a row I think.
24 turnovers. That's not what I hope for when I say "filling up the stat sheet" lol.
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I'm always hesitant to put anything into exhibition games, but when they confirm suspicions, I'll give them a little more credence. MSU blew out Northern Michigan, which, whatever, but it was as expected. Ward is in the best shape of his career, and Winston looks good. The season, IMO, swings on how much McQuaid is forced to play PG, and whether Langford takes a big step forward. If yes, I think they can repeat as Big Ten champs. If not, they are probably a 6-8 seed type team.
As for the freshmen, Aaron Henry, as thought, is the only one who looks fully ready to contribute right away. Foster Loyer is ready on the offensive end, but his defense keeps him off the court. He's small and plays too far off his man. His inability to play both ends of the court forced McQuaid to play more backup PG than I'd prefer, simply because Loyer isn't ready. Marcus Bingham has the highest ceiling on the team, but also may redshirt because of how much weight he needs to add. He had an 11-0 run on his own with a pair of 3s, a highlight dunk, and a +1 layup. But he struggled to hold his position against NMU players. My guess is he winds up leaving early at some point, so I don't think the redshirt makes sense, because I doubt you get a 5th year out of him anyway. But if he's not physically ready, he's not physically ready.
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I'd be shocked if it's anything but Purdue
2 new CBs this morning, both for MSU. Those late trends are usually meaningful. That would be quite the pleasant surprise.
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Aleem Ford suffered a serious knee injury and is having surgery today. In addition to being a needed big man, he had the best 3 point percentage (40) on the team last season. Big loss and out indefinitely. Football translates to basketball for injuries in Madison. Shit.
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Purdue again had their secret scrimmage with WVU. Third year in a row I think.
24 turnovers. That's not what I hope for when I say "filling up the stat sheet" lol.
Yeah, apparently WVU “won” 95-89. Had two starters that sat it out. Last year word was Purdue sorta smoked them. I never really put a lot of stock in these.
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Yeah, apparently WVU “won” 95-89. Had two starters that sat it out. Last year word was Purdue sorta smoked them. I never really put a lot of stock in these.
Agreed. I see it as a place where both coaches can play around a bit with lineups and do some things they wouldn't normally do in a game. I think the Purdue/WVU matchup started a few years ago when Purdue was terrible at beating a press, so Painter wanted to scrimmage WVU to have a team press them. Then it's just continued...
But still, 24 TO is a lot.
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UW lost forward Aleem Ford to some kinda knee. Will miss a chunk of the season. He was set to be the top frontcourt reserve, so they’ll need some kind of miracle before Happ as Reuvers
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2 new CBs this morning, both for MSU. Those late trends are usually meaningful. That would be quite the pleasant surprise.
MSU it is. Surprising, but much needed after losing Weeks to *cough* DePaul *cough*
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MSU it is. Surprising, but much needed after losing Weeks to *cough* DePaul *cough*
I have to wonder if this helps IU with Keion Brooks.
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I have to wonder if this helps IU with Keion Brooks.
I don't think the commitment itself does, MSU still has two more spots. One has to be a big. Ideally either Carey or Stewart. But they still have room for Brooks. I think MSU shifting emphasis from Brooks to Hall over the past few weeks is likely a sign they believed they were running clearly behind IU for Brooks.
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Boy, I'm getting really sick of Izzo looking at the guys Painter has been aggressively wooing for 2 years, picking who he wants, throwing them a late offer, and then seeing them in green and white...
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Boy, I'm getting really sick of Izzo looking at the guys Painter has been aggressively wooing for 2 years, picking who he wants, throwing them a late offer, and then seeing them in green and white...
Who is that? Other than this case, where MSU moved onto Plan B once Weems surprised everyone by picking DePaul, every other MSU-Purdue battle MSUnwon was a Plan A guy. Harris, Dawson, Jackson. All Plan As. Purdue got a couple guys MSU wanted the past couple years, Eastern and Williams.
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OSU won their exhibition game against UNC-WhaterItWas.
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UW lost forward Aleem Ford to some kinda knee. Will miss a chunk of the season. He was set to be the top frontcourt reserve, so they’ll need some kind of miracle before Happ as Reuvers
No worries. ESPNs foolproof computer has Bucky preseason #8. Michigan is #42. Those check out right? Why bother watching, ESPN has their finger on the pulse of everything.
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No worries. ESPNs foolproof computer has Bucky preseason #8. Michigan is #42. Those check out right? Why bother watching, ESPN has their finger on the pulse of everything.
It turns out he might miss a month. So that’s a slight bullet dodge.
Peoples need to get mad at ESPN and projections is interesting. That one seemed like an odd one. Means they overvalue returning production, don’t put enough on recruiting rankings.
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Who is that? Other than this case, where MSU moved onto Plan B once Weems surprised everyone by picking DePaul, every other MSU-Purdue battle MSUnwon was a Plan A guy. Harris, Dawson, Jackson. All Plan As. Purdue got a couple guys MSU wanted the past couple years, Eastern and Williams.
It's more of a gripe at how generally good Painter is at identifying talent and getting on kids early, only to watch as they blow up and then a bigger "name" comes in without all the legwork and steals them away.
It's not that MSU doesn't make them a priority, it's that MSU makes them a priority much later than Purdue has made them a priority.
As someone on the Hammer & Rails site put it, it's like Purdue's the girl next door who's been talking to the recruit for a year, and he's been talking back because he doesn't want to lose out, but he's really waiting for the cheerleader [MSU] to come in and will jump that direction as soon as she shows interest.
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MSU was "on" Hall for a while, they just didn't think they had a spot for him, presumably getting Weems, and then prioritizing Brooks over Hall. Once Weems surprised everyone and went to DePaul, MSU immediately moved onto Hall, who was their 3rd wing. Basketball recruiting, the nature is you can't have a ton of offers out there like you can in football, you generally have a half dozen out there at a time. Hall was always their #3 wing, but needing to prioritze a big, they couldn't have more than 2 offers out there at once, so it was Weems and Brooks. Once Weems moved on, MSU moved on Hall.
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MSU was "on" Hall for a while, they just didn't think they had a spot for him, presumably getting Weems, and then prioritizing Brooks over Hall. Once Weems surprised everyone and went to DePaul, MSU immediately moved onto Hall, who was their 3rd wing. Basketball recruiting, the nature is you can't have a ton of offers out there like you can in football, you generally have a half dozen out there at a time. Hall was always their #3 wing, but needing to prioritze a big, they couldn't have more than 2 offers out there at once, so it was Weems and Brooks. Once Weems moved on, MSU moved on Hall.
I get it. He was their backup plan. Apparently Purdue was his. I'm just getting sick of it.
I couldn't imagine being a college coach and having to recruit. Painter poured 2 years into Hall. It was clear he was our "plan A". We would have taken him AND Brooks, if we had any chance at Brooks, so Painter wasn't waiting for someone else to disappear off our radar. And Hall would have immediate significant playing time, something I'm not sure MSU can offer.
Yet after all that work and effort, the team that basically made Hall their third option swoops in and gets him.
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Pretty sure that's just recruiting. MSU was I believe the first to offer Weems, was on him the longest, and it's not even like he flipped at the last second to a good program. He chose DePaul. The length of time you recruit a kid doesn't matter if there is another school they simply like more.
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Pretty sure that's just recruiting. MSU was I believe the first to offer Weems, was on him the longest, and it's not even like he flipped at the last second to a good program. He chose DePaul. The length of time you recruit a kid doesn't matter if there is another school they simply like more.
Yeah, I get it... It just grates when it seems like it's consistently one school...
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Yeah, I get it... It just grates when it seems like it's consistently one school...
Like I said, I don't even see that. I can think of 3 battles MSU has won (Harris, Dawson, Jackson), and 3 that Purdue has won (Eastern, Williams, Swanigan). In each case both schools were in the whole time.
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BTN finally replayed Michigan's exhibition game against D2 Northwood tonight. Way too many turnovers, missed rebounds, and some bad shots, too. The defense did create some turnovers, and the transition offense was great (that could be in part due to the other team's defensive problems, of course), so it will be interesting to see if that translates to games against better teams.
The rotation was about as expected. Brazdeikis commits some dumb fouls, especially on the offensive side, but he's about as skilled as advertised. Matthews shot it better than usual but still made some bad decisions to drive to the rim unsuccessfully. Teske hit a 3, which was cool to see but had a disappointing game overall. Davis looked okay in backup minutes at center. Livers had a lot of good finishes but still can't really create his own shot. Simpson had a bad game while Brooks looked pretty decent, so there may be a more even split in minutes at PG than expected (though they played together at times, too), while DeJulius had limited minutes, but he could emerge later. Johns isn't really ready to play much yet, either.
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Any thoughts on your tiers medina?
1: Michigan, MSU
2: Indiana, Maryland, Purdue
3: Nebraska, OSU, Wisconsin
4:
5:
6: Rutgers
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State would fill in the 4/5, but I have no clue what to expect from any of them
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Buckeyes open at Cincinnati Wednesday evening. I am loving the idea of them playing more Ohio teams. For NCAA basketball, the regular season (especially early) needs more drama and fun, and playing more local teams can help that.
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Buckeyes open at Cincinnati Wednesday evening. I am loving the idea of them playing more Ohio teams. For NCAA basketball, the regular season (especially early) needs more drama and fun, and playing more local teams can help that.
That's a really nice opening game.
MSU drawing the national #1 team again in the Champions Classic, but this year they moved it up to the opener. Would really like a game under our belts first, but c'est la vie. Should play 3 ranked teams in our first 6, with #21 UCLA and then #8 North Carolina. Then we get a "break" with road trips to Louisville and Florida in games 7 and 8. Could be a really rough start. Important to get off to a 3-0 start in Big Ten play though, opening with home games against Iowa and Northwestern around a trip to Rutgers.
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Any thoughts on your tiers medina?
1: Michigan, MSU
2: Indiana, Maryland, Purdue
3: Nebraska, OSU, Wisconsin
4:
5:
6: Rutgers
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State would fill in the 4/5, but I have no clue what to expect from any of them
I've seen projections that place MSU/M/UNL at the top. You appear to semi-strongly disagree.
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I floated between putting Nebraska in the 2nd tier.
I'm not fully sold yet, we've heard time and time again Miles is ready to turn the corner, but through 6 years he's made one tourney, 5 years ago, and then last year's NIT was the only other postseason trip for them, and they lost their first game. I'm unsure if their 5th place finish last year was them being good, or the Big Ten only going 4 deep, and them having the good fortune of only having to play MSU, PU, OSU and UM once each.
They should be better, but I'm not ready to put them in a top group with UM and MSU yet. I could see them belonging in the 2nd group though.
My preseason ranking would probably be:
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Maryland
- Purdue
- Indiana
- Nebraska
- Wisconsin
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Iowa
- Northwestern
- Minnesota
- Illinois
- Rutgers
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Well this sucks. Two days before the season starts backup center Micah Potter says he is quitting the program and transferring. Extremely weird, because it was thought he would play a lot, and indeed led the team in scoring in their scrimmage.
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Well this sucks. Two days before the season starts backup center Micah Potter says he is quitting the program and transferring. Extremely weird, because it was thought he would play a lot, and indeed led the team in scoring in their scrimmage.
Very strange... Any speculation yet?
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Been a long time since I looked forward to an opener as much as this showdown with the big bad Bearcats.
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Very strange... Any speculation yet?
Nothing crazy. Just lack of minutes this year and next. His brother is actually committed to the football team and he says he's still committed. So...
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FWIW, which is likely little, preseason Massey composite rankings (17 rankings)...
- Kansas
- Virginia
- North Carolina
- Villanova
- Duke
- Kentucky
- MICHIGAN STATE
- Gonzaga
- West Virginia
- Tennessee
- MICHIGAN
- PURDUE
- Florida
- Nevada
- Clemson
- Kansas State
- Florida State
- Cincinnati
- Syracuse
- Auburn
- TCU
- Virginia Tech
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Butler
- 28. Ohio State
- 32. Wisconsin
- 33. Maryland
- 37. Penn State
- 41. Indiana
- 49. Nebraska
- 62. Iowa
- 67. Northwestern
- 74. Minnesota
- 86. Illinois
- 119. Rutgers
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Apparently Lamelo Ball is moving to Ohio to play high school basketball. That's...something.
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I'll believe the UNL hype after December.... until then, the team still needs to prove they can handle expectations. Come out strong in December and I'll believe. So far, Miles has started slow in each of his 6 seasons.
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Apparently Lamelo Ball is moving to Ohio to play high school basketball. That's...something.
MSUs PG commit, and another kid they are recruiting go to the school. The spotlight of MSU will be nothing to him after dealing with the balls.
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Azubuike showing Ward why he's not a pro. You have to be his size to play that style anymore.
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Late segment of Izzo's career will be defined by his stubbornness to bring in a fresh offensive perspective
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Feels like a game ending swing. Ward undercut on a layup, injured, no call. Leads to a 5 of 4 three. Deficit goes from 6 to 11.
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Ethan Happ had a triple double in a blowout of a tomato can. I think the Wynn give me more confidence that I should. To correct for that, I’ll dig back to some of the successful early games last year.
Also, until Ford comes back, Wisconsin will feature a lot of four guard lineups. Granted, I like a lot of the guards.
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Purdue cruises over Fairfield. I know that should be expected, but for Purdue fans who realize we graduated a core of 4 outstanding seniors, we were worried. Especially since this is the first time in 6 years that we haven't had a 7'+ back-to-the-basket traditional center out there. Yeah, Haarms is 7'3" (7'6" with the hair) but he's more of a modern stretch 5 and face-up guy than a back-to-the-basket post-up guy.
Still a lot of questions for this team. I couldn't see the game [BTN hates Purdue, so we were on the $10/month BTN+], but was listening on the radio, and it sounds like we weren't doing a cohesive job on the defensive end. Even though we blew them out on the scoreboard, it sounded like we gave up easy points and didn't close out on their best shooters all that well.
But I'll take a 90-57 win.
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Bucks and Bearcats combine to go 13 of 54 in the first half. Whoot
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Apparently Lamelo Ball is moving to Ohio to play high school basketball. That's...something.
https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1059872110598873090?s=19
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Good looking win for the buckeyes. Look to have a little better balance this season scoring wise, and the defense was good. Overcame some bizarre calls by the refs in this game, but were lucky Cincy couldn't shoot straight for most of the game.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrcU2bWXgAAxk3T.jpg)
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A more in depth review:
Bucks played 8 deep. They did not play freshman Jaedon Ledee, who was assumed to get minutes that would have gone to Micah Potter. When Wesson got in foul trouble, Kyle Young moved to center and they played small.
In any event, Kaleb Wesson looks like a dude in the middle for the Bucks. He can post up, step outside for a three, and even played some defense. Kyle Young played the power forward/backup center role, and he looked like a strong effort guy, getting strong rebounds, playing good defense, and getting some opportunistic offense.
At wing, Andre Wesson played great defense, and made his two three point attempts. He wasn't much of a shooter last year, and if he develops into a shooter, he can really be an impact player.
The guards were a mixed bad. CJ Jackson wasn't super efficient, but was very clutch. Luther Muhammed looks like he might be something. Woods and Washington didn't do a whole lot. Musa Jallow had some strong plays and not so strong plays.
In any event, nothing too shocking, except that I really didn't expect them to win, and they they had a double digit lead for most of the second half and won by 8. The defense was strong, as expected, though Cincinnati wasn't expected to be great on offense. The big question is who would score for them after losing so much production, and it was a pretty even split there. Kaleb Wesson was the high scorer with 15, but four guys were in double digits and you can see there will probably be a different leading scorer every other night.
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Cincinnati is always going to defend the hell out of you. Scoring 64 on them ain't bad.
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Cincinnati looked very overrated, but I was impressed by Ohio State's defense, as well, while their offense did enough. I still don't think OSU will be as good as they were last year, but they might be good enough to make the tournament.
No major upsets yet except the losses by Baylor and Wichita State last night.
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Bucks can't quite shake Fort Wayne in the first half.
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Bucks can't quite shake Fort Wayne in the first half.
I'm mostly confused how they went from Indiana- Purdue Fort Wayne to Fort Wayne to Purdue Fort Wayne
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I'll believe the UNL hype after December.... until then, the team still needs to prove they can handle expectations. Come out strong in December and I'll believe. So far, Miles has started slow in each of his 6 seasons.
Looked pretty damn good that first half.
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I'm mostly confused how they went from Indiana- Purdue Fort Wayne to Fort Wayne to Purdue Fort Wayne
I googled and apparently they split up the University and purdue got the basketball team. Anyways, all bucks in the second half. Defense will be the buckeyes story this year
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I know that at some point over the winter I will look back on this score and wonder how in the hell OSU broke 100 against air, let alone another team.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrwfKioUwAAntZc.jpg)
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MSU has enough offensive talent to overwhelm every team they should. 60 points in a half against a likely tourney team? Yes please.
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BTN announcers directly calling out Melo Trimble and Brad Davison as guys known for flopping to draw BS calls. Never heard announcers be that direct before.
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I had forgotten that Groot (aka Ricky Doyle) wound up at FGCU
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BTN announcers directly calling out Melo Trimble and Brad Davison as guys known for flopping to draw BS calls. Never heard announcers be that direct before.
BS
Melo never "flopped" and you know it.
The school of "flopping" is across the hall from "floor-slapping", and we all know who attended them.
Melo made contact while driving. He never flopped.
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BS
Melo never "flopped" and you know it.
The school of "flopping" is across the hall from "floor-slapping", and we all know who attended them.
Melo made contact while driving. He never flopped.
I'm just saying what they said, that refs learn players over the course of their careers, and they learned Melo threw his head back without contact and Davison would flop to draw calls, and that as they played more games, and refs learned their schticks, they stopped getting those calls. I'm not making a point, other than I've never heard a college announcer directly call out two players, particularly not even ones playing in the game, as being guys who became known to refs for their flopping. I never said I agreed or disagreed, simply that I was surprised he said it.
I think we all know Melo got hit in the head every single time he drove the lane, and never once made it up. He just made the poor choice of going to a school that Jim Delany invited to the conference for the sole purpose of screwing over.
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I'm just saying what they said, that refs learn players over the course of their careers, and they learned Melo threw his head back without contact and Davison would flop to draw calls, and that as they played more games, and refs learned their schticks, they stopped getting those calls. I'm not making a point, other than I've never heard a college announcer directly call out two players, particularly not even ones playing in the game, as being guys who became known to refs for their flopping. I never said I agreed or disagreed, simply that I was surprised he said it.
Okay. I agree with that.
Cowan started trying the same thing, and got frustrated when he didn't get those calls early.
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Nice edit.....
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BTN announcers directly calling out Melo Trimble and Brad Davison as guys known for flopping to draw BS calls. Never heard announcers be that direct before.
Davison tries to create 14 block-charge situations a game. It is annoying as all hell. Damn kid committed 4.2 fouls per 40 last year, when they desperately needed him NOT to do that.
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Buffalo moves into the AP rankings at #25 after upsetting WVU. Football also receiving votes at 9-1. What a time to be a Bull!
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Illikainen leaving UW
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Carsen Edwards the first B1G player of the week.
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BS
Melo never "flopped" and you know it.
The school of "flopping" is across the hall from "floor-slapping", and we all know who attended them.
Melo made contact while driving. He never flopped.
Exactly. One can argue that he got a lot of calls when he was the one who initiated contact. But anybody who calls that flopping has never seen Greg Paulus play. If an announcer said Melo was a flopper, it's a lazy observation based on hearing complaints about the calls he got his first year...
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Illikainen leaving UW
Kinda surprised he lasted as long as he did. Would have been nice to know this a little earlier than yesterday.
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Minnesota killed one of the cooler vibes in college basketball by brightening the Barn, and not only that, they went WAY over the top and made it blinding.
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Massey composite rankings (19 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Duke (5)
- North Carolina (3)
- Kansas (1)
- Virginia (2)
- Gonzaga (8)
- Villanova (4)
- Tennessee (10)
- MICHIGAN STATE (7)
- Auburn (20)
- Florida State (17)
- PURDUE (12)
- Nevada (14)
- OHIO STATE (-)
- MICHIGAN (11)
- Syracuse (19)
- Kentucky (6)
- NEBRASKA (-)
- Clemson (15)
- Virginia Tech (22)
- West Virginia (9)
- Oregon (24)
- Mississippi State (-)
- Texas Tech (23)
- Marquette (-)
- Kansas State (16)
- 33. Indiana (41)
- 34. Penn State (37)
- 36. Maryland (33)
- 44. Wisconsin (32)
- 59. Northwestern (67)
- 60. Illinois (86)
- 66. Iowa (62)
- 69. Minnesota (74)
- 79. Rutgers (119)
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Davison tries to create 14 block-charge situations a game. It is annoying as all hell. Damn kid committed 4.2 fouls per 40 last year, when they desperately needed him NOT to do that.
Paid off there.
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Those rankings are baffling to me. There are some real flyers in there.
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Trent Frazier would have been nice to have last night against Georgetown. Guard play should be pretty darn good for the Illini but the interior defense is poo.
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Apparently I missed some kind of first half.
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Michigan kept playing the defense they had been playing, but started shooting.
Last game they trailed Holy Cross at home at halftime, today they lead Villanova on the road by 27
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I certainly didn't see that coming. I'm trying not to get too excited, but this defense might be the best in the country (now #3 on Kenpom after entering tonight at #6). It's kind of weird how similar of a strategy they have now like the football team (strong defense especially against 3s / passes and now forcing more TOs, driving more than shooting 3s (run v pass) while not committing turnovers).
The first few games were frustrating to watch, but clearly the fact that Norfolk and Holy Cross play zone defenses, was part of it, as well as perhaps lack of motivation against outmatched competition.The main difference tonight was turnovers (21 forced to 7 committed) and, of course, shooting. Paschall and Booth both looked bad, and they were still the leading scorers. The other major stats were basically even.
On offense, Brazdeikis and Matthews were the primary scorers, though Simpson, Livers, and Poole all played better, as well. There's still a lot of room for improvement, but I think by January, it will be pretty good, as the players get comfortable in their roles.
George Washington and South Carolina or Providence are next in this tournament in Connecticut. GW is bad and neither of the other two appear to be that good, as they've played some of the same teams (Norfolk and Holy Cross are two of the teams in the lower-profile part of the tournament and provide the guarantee games) and have been challenged and even lost..... Then North Carolina is coming to Crisler for the ACC Challenge.
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Big Ten in general looks really good on the very early returns. Few tourneys this weekend as well. UM's isn't what was hoped, as already mentioned, with GW, South Carolina, and some other scrub I think. But Purdue is in one that could result in a matchup with a top 15 VT, and Iowa has a 4 team one with Syracuse, Oregon and UConn. Chance to make some more noise. Rutgers hosts St. John's, who is just outside the Top 25, tomorrow as well.
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The BigTen is arguably the best league in the country so far with neither of the two losses (Michigan State to Kansas and Illinois to Georgetown) being an upset, compared to 5-10 good wins so far, depending on your standard for a good win. Meanwhile, quite a few power-conference teams have already suffered questionable-at-best losses (Baylor, Notre Dame, Boston College, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, California, South Carolina, Wichita, Washington State).
10 teams are in the Kenpom top 40 while Minnesota and Northwestern are 49 and 50, Illinois at 77, and Rutgers at 118. That's a predictive ranking system, of course, as opposed to a results-based one, but even so, it's a good indicator. In looking at Michigan's schedule again, I can see them winning the conference but just going 14-6 or 15-5.
Of course, there are still a lot of non-con games left, including most of the toughest ones, but it's a very good start.
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Nice win for Michigan. I can't believe Phil Booth is still playing. Anyway, Bucks on the road against Creighton tonight. Their coach, Greg McDermott, was probably the second choice if Holtmann didn't sign up. FWIW they are 37 on KenPom, though not sure what value KenPom numbers are this early in the season.
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Purdue up 39-23 on App St with 3 minutes left in the 1st half in the Charleston Classic.
There was some worry about App St because they hung really tight with Alabama a few days ago... But Alabama lost to Northeastern today in the same event, so maybe Alabama just isn't very good...
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Bucks with a 12 point lead at the half. Looked a little lost to start, but a combo of good three point shooting, strong defense, and Creighton foul trouble helping out. Transfer Keyshawn Woods having 15 also helping.
Not sure they can keep this up. Felt like Creighton has a big run in them.
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Hey folks... I'm not sure if you're aware of this young kid Purdue has... Named Carson Edmonds or something?
He's pretty good.
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Bucks give up the lead, but close the door with a 13-0 run to win. Pretty strong start to have two quality road wins playing a lot of youngsters.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsFt-b2XoAEKI-G.jpg)
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Big win for OSU, now Iowa up 12 late against #13 Oregon.
But PSU about to lose to ugh, DePaul
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Big win for OSU, now Iowa up 12 late against #13 Oregon.
But PSU about to lose to ugh, DePaul
Slowest 13-3 run ever. DePaul didn't make a basket in the final 8:09. Heading to OT
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Man nice job Iowa. An Iowa that plays defense is a pretty good team.
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So Iowa is playing some defense this year
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Purdue with another dominating win over Davidson in the Charleston Classic. 4-0 but haven't faced tough competition yet.
That'll come on Sunday against VaTech. If I weren't going to be drinking wine in Napa, I'd be parked in front of a TV for that one!
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KenPom Power Rankings. KenPom still heavily influenced by preseason rankings at this point, but it's better than nothing. I'll put their current ranking first and their preseason ranking 2nd.
1. Michigan (10, 24)
2. Purdue (12, 18)
3. MSU (14, 13)
4. Indiana (17, 28)
5. Wisconsin (19, 20)
6. Nebraska (29, 38)
7. OSU (30, 41)
8. Iowa (33, 35)
9. Maryland (35, 30)
10. Penn State (36, 32)
11. Northwestern (44, 58)
12. Minnesota (48, 60)
13. Illinois (76, 85)
14. Rutgers (133, 149)
So overall, much of the conference doing better than expected. 10 teams in the top 36 is quality.
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Furman now with wins over Loyola and Villanova this year
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Villanova lost at home to Furman. From national champs to NIT?
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Michigan just finished a dominant weekend over George Washington and Providence. I couldn't find a full replay of the GWU game so I only saw some highlight videos of it, but it looks like it was more of the same, except the offense played better (GW only got to 60 because the non-rotation players saw a fair bit of playing time towards the end).
I did see the Providence game today, though. The defense was strong throughout, though the rebounding was a little underwhelming, but part of that was Michigan had a small 3-guard lineup at times for some reason (Simpson, Poole, and Brooks), which didn't seem to work well. The refs were also bad, but ultimately didn't help either team.
The offense is inconsistent but getting better. The difference with this year's team is that there is no dominant player. Poole, Matthews, Brazdeikis, or Livers could all lead the team in scoring in a game depending on the matchups. Simpson is putting up big assist numbers, so far, too. There's a lot more lineup versatility this year, too, allowing Michigan to big or small depending on the opponent. That said, a 7-man rotation is smaller than usual, which is somewhat concerning. Austin Davis will backup Teske instead of Livers against big centers, and I think that DeJulius or Nunez can break into the back court rotation at some point, but from what I've seen when they finish the blowout wins, they aren't ready yet.
Yes, Villanova is clearly overrated after their loss to Furman (which is a decent mid-major in their own right), so it remains to be seen how they do against better competition (namely North Carolina in 10 days), but I think the team is good enough to beat anyone.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsUEejyUcAAhJOB.jpg)
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Watching some of this George Washington game, because former MSU player Maurice Joseph is their coach, and he's an interesting option as next MSU coach, but yikes their offense sucks. Down 56-18 at half to South Carolina.
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If I can find 4 takers, the 5 of us should go play Tennessee Tech. This has to be the worst body bag team MSU has ever played.
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Fargin' longhorn manure from those refs.
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Dang. Most are 19 and below, but 9 B1G teams in the CBS Top 25 + 1.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/top25/
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Dang. Most are 19 and below, but 9 B1G teams in the CBS Top 25 + 1.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/top25/
The last 6 teams are all big ten. that almost feels to me like SEC football bias. "We don't know what to do so throw in a Big Ten team."
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Didn't realize Chaminade had been kicked out of their own tourney.
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Michigan's defense versus the rest of the country, to date:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsUW92VW0AAte-G.jpg)
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Dang. Most are 19 and below, but 9 B1G teams in the CBS Top 25 + 1.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/top25/
New AP Poll has all 9 in the top 28. Michigan (#9), MSU (#11), Iowa (#20), OSU (#23), Purdue (#24), Wisconsin (#25), Nebraska (#26), Indiana (#27), Maryland (#28)
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Rutgers might hold EMU to single digits. 23-4 at the under 4 first half
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Didn't realize Chaminade had been kicked out of their own tourney.
Ha, no kidding. Was the draw of a bit more cash from the TV people enough to do it?
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Was I the only one that stayed up to watch Gonz-IL? Was pretty entertaining.
Trent Frazier brought em back with an incredible game and blew it with 2 awful pure hero ball possessions.
To top it all off, Bill Walton closed hyping tomorrow's slate and asked his PBP partner what his name is. I think it's totally plausible he doesn't know or forgot during the telecast.
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Ha, no kidding. Was the draw of a bit more cash from the TV people enough to do it?
Hopefully just a one year thing, MSU is in it next year, and it looks like Chaminade is in the field, unless they make a late switch. Next year's field is ok on name value at the top, but aside from MSU it's Kansas and UCLA. We already played Kansas, and play UCLA on Thursday, so it's kind of a bummer that the possible name opponents are ones we just played this year. Then the rest of the field seems a little down. Dayton, Georgia, Virginia Tech, BYU. Meh.
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To top it all off, Bill Walton closed hyping tomorrow's slate and asked his PBP partner what his name is. I think it's totally plausible he doesn't know or forgot during the telecast.
https://twitter.com/beckjason/status/1064706351824293889
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I had that game on, Walton sounded like he was talking to himself. It was bizarre for Bill Walton standards. His touting of the Maui colored floor, whatever that means, was quite amusing.
It was an awkward telecast.
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Massey composite rankings (21 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Duke (1)
- North Carolina (2)
- Kansas (3)
- Virginia (4)
- Gonzaga (5)
- MICHIGAN (14)
- Tennessee (7)
- MICHIGAN STATE (8)
- Virginia Tech (19)
- Auburn (9)
- Nevada (12)
- Florida State (10)
- PURDUE (11)
- OHIO STATE (13)
- NEBRASKA (17)
- Kentucky (16)
- Mississippi State (22)
- Clemson (18)
- Kansas State (25)
- Texas Tech (23)
- Oregon (21)
- INDIANA (-)
- Villanova (6)
- WISCONSIN (-)
- NC State (-)
- 33. Iowa (66)
- 41. Maryland (36)
- 44. Penn State (34)
- 56. Minnesota (69)
- 59. Northwestern (59)
- 76. Illinois (60)
- 96. Rutgers (119)
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Xavier blowing a 19 point lead against San Diego State.
Just how bad is the Big East this year? Whole conference seems WAY down.
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Bucks down at the half to Samford. I'd tell you what's going on, but the game is mired on BTN+
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Turned it around to get a win over a scrappy bunch
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Nebraska basketball is what it was last year. Teams that don't allow UNL to penetrate and/or work hard at rebounding win. TT won by 18 but honestly, the score wasn't that close.
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Tell you what, really looked like MSU had a shot at Talen Horton-Tucker, before he landed at Iowa State, and he looks like the vastly underrated player some MSU insiders felt he was, when other just looked at his starz and said "pass."
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Realized we've got some good daytime basketball and furiously found ESPN. Wiscy up 4 at the half.
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Feast Week is underrated with all of the daytime college hoops. Wasn't a terrible week to be off on paternity with a newborn three years ago. Stuff to watch during the day. Up with a baby at night, there are games tipping at 1 am. Used to basically play through the night back when the Great Alaskan Shootout was neck and neck with Maui for top tourney. Then teams learned spending this week in Atlantis or Florida or Vegas is a lot better than Alaska.
Granted Glen Rice didn't mind the Alaskan trip.
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Gonzaga is the better team. They don't even get their best player back from injury til January.
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Zags pull it out. I remember Hachimura killing the Bucks last year. He's still good
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What time did Gonz-Duke tip? Totally would have watched the game, but I got home after picking up the kids from sports and found out it was already final. The champ game was expected to be between highly ranked teams, why didn't this thing tip at like 8 or 10 pm, I mean hell did it tip at noon locally?
Nice win for Minn vs Wash, btw.
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I had that game on, Walton sounded like he was talking to himself. It was bizarre for Bill Walton standards. His touting of the Maui colored floor, whatever that means, was quite amusing.
It was an awkward telecast.
I don't know if I can get on board with that. Anytime I flip on a game and hear Walton I think it's bizarre.
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https://twitter.com/beckjason/status/1064706351824293889
LMAO fantastic
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What time did Gonz-Duke tip? Totally would have watched the game, but I got home after picking up the kids from sports and found out it was already final. The champ game was expected to be between highly ranked teams, why didn't this thing tip at like 8 or 10 pm, I mean hell did it tip at noon locally?
Nice win for Minn vs Wash, btw.
5 pm eastern
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What time did Gonz-Duke tip? Totally would have watched the game, but I got home after picking up the kids from sports and found out it was already final. The champ game was expected to be between highly ranked teams, why didn't this thing tip at like 8 or 10 pm, I mean hell did it tip at noon locally?
Nice win for Minn vs Wash, btw.
Noon locally because late locally means super late everywhere else, and it's first and foremost a TV property. Not sure why they don't bump to the next slot. Maybe tradition. More likely the NBA contract with LeBron facing the Cavs.
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So, are the Badgers pretty good this season? Too early to tell? I got a glimpse in the airport yesterday and they looked OK. Lots of missed shots at the rim though. Can't have that. Oklahoma will be a huge challenge today. Gonna try to keep a look on that if my brother lets me use his TV for something other than his gaming shit.
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So, are the Badgers pretty good this season? Too early to tell? I got a glimpse in the airport yesterday and they looked OK. Lots of missed shots at the rim though. Can't have that. Oklahoma will be a huge challenge today. Gonna try to keep a look on that if my brother lets me use his TV for something other than his gaming shit.
At the moment, just solid to good. Liking the high floor, waiting on the ceiling.
Also liking the conference being strong. Lots of games that don’t hurt as losses on the resume and help on wins.
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Badgers whip the Sooners behind 14-22 shooting from three, a day after going 1-8 from three.
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Badgers whip the Sooners behind 14-22 shooting from three, a day after going 1-8 from three.
I don’t get the feeling Oklahoma is that good, but still plenty pleased with the win.
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Not convinced UCLA is actually any good, but MSU played their best of the season last night.
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Well, here comes Virginia and coach Bennett. This will tell us a whole lot about UW.
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Not convinced UCLA is actually any good, but MSU played their best of the season last night.
Well, except UCLA is beating UNC in the consolation game, so maybe not terrible?
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The Badgers looked decent today against a very good team. The poor first half really cost them because they went toe to toe pretty well in the 2nd. On to the next one.
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Well, except UCLA is beating UNC in the consolation game, so maybe not terrible?
UCLA second half meltdown. Alford probably gone after this year
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Another dominant showing against an overmatched Chattanooga team today. Michigan still has the best defense in Kenpom and fewest points per game allowed. North Carolina is 2nd to Gonzaga in points per game on offense and #3 in Kenpom offense, so that should be a great matchup next week.
Meanwhile, Michigan's offense continues to get better now that the rotation has been established. Matthews is still forcing some unnecessary shots instead of passing it off, but otherwise, everyone is getting and taking good shots. From what I've seen of North Carolina, their defense isn't that great, but Kenpom has it ranked 17th despite allowing 72.9 points per game (177th in the country), though they have played a reasonably tough schedule so far (UCLA, Texas, Stanford).
If the offense keeps playing well, Michigan should be able to score at least 70 and win. The one minor concern I have is that the regular rotation hasn't had to play a full game yet (much less been involved in a very competitive one), so we'll see how they react if they get behind and/or have a game that remains close right to the end.
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Good win for Sparty. Texas is a pretty good team.
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Slow start for the second time in three games against solid competition, but I was impressed with the adjustments. Texas had MSU scouted perfectly, came out and exploited their weaknesses. Felt like both UM games last year, except this time MSU adjusted and had a 28 point swing.
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Bucks with the throwback unis and playing in St. John's and beat up on Cleveland St.
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Pre ACC Challenge KenPom
1. Michigan (7)
2. MSU (8)
3. Wisconsin (13)
4. Purdue (14)
5. Indiana (23)
6. OSU (27)
7. Nebraska (31)
8. Iowa (32)
9. Maryland (33)
10. Penn State (38)
11. Minnesota (45)
12. Northwestern (58)
13. Illinois (94)
14. Rutgers (111)
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Purdue 2019 prospect Zeke Nnaji chose Arizona on Friday. Last of Purdue's highly rated targets for 2019 unless we get someone like Keion Brooks, which is considered a moon shot at this point.
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The NCAA released their NET rankings, which supposedly replace the RPI for tourney purposes. And for some reason, OSU is #1.
WE'RE NUMBER ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds8ejgRWoAIhxX7.jpg)
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Just realized we get Michigan-Purdue on Saturday. That's fun
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The NCAA released their NET rankings, which supposedly replace the RPI for tourney purposes. And for some reason, OSU is #1.
WE'RE NUMBER ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seems weird to release this so early. Wair until at least January, people are going to freak out by these limited data rankings. They may prove to be awful anyway, but this puts them having to make up ground in PR territory.
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Huskers get an opening win over Clemson
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Look at Nebraska, carrying the B1G again in this challenge. One of two B1G schools with a winning record. :57:
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Nice win for Nebraska. Figured Minnesota had the easy matchup, but the offense didn't show up
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If I'm a Minn fan..... last night has me concerned. Maybe it was a bad night shooting, but it seemed to me they need options where the offense doesn't start with a feed down low.
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Massey composite rankings (27 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Duke (1)
- Gonzaga (5)
- Kansas (3)
- MICHIGAN (6)
- Virginia (4)
- MICHIGAN STATE (8)
- North Carolina (2)
- Virginia Tech (9)
- Texas Tech (20)
- Auburn (10)
- OHIO STATE (14)
- Tennessee (7)
- PURDUE (13)
- Nevada (11)
- Florida State (12)
- WISCONSIN (24)
- NEBRASKA (15)
- Kansas State (19)
- Villanova (23)
- Texas (-)
- Butler (-)
- Oregon (21)
- Arizona State (-)
- Buffalo (-)
- Cincinnati (-)
- 26. Iowa (33)
- 28. Maryland (41)
- 29. Indiana (22)
- 44. Minnesota (56)
- 49. Penn State (44)
- 54. Northwestern (59)
- 75. Rutgers (96)
- 118. Illinois (76)
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Ugh, Big Ten gave Valentine the boot, but MSU gets to see him tonight on the road in Louisville...against the team shooting the 5th most FTs in the nation.
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Think we are learning how thin MSU is on the perimeter. McQuaid out, Langford in foul trouble apparently. Glad I'm out and can't see more than a score check.
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Nice job Penn State
-
Man Illini this close from pulling it out
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And now Winston out. Loyer showing why they moved McQuaid to backup PG over him. Just not ready yet. Have to navigate the last 4 minutes without eitjer of our PGs.
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Sparty can't hit a free throw and that game is headed to overtime
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And now Winston out. Loyer showing why they moved McQuaid to backup PG over him. Just not ready yet. Have to navigate the last 4 minutes without eitjer of our PGs.
Came all the way back, got a lead, then went 1-2 on FTs, missed front end, TO, missed front end over the final minute. OT. With no PG, and only one starting backcourt player eligible. Not liking our chances
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FT shooting cost them the game. Sigh
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"Ya gotta hit the rim!"
Decent win for the Badgers. Man, NCSU likes to push that ball and press on D. The boys will learn from this one and be better for it. Now comes a really tough one, at Iowa on Friday.
Wait. Friday?!? Then Rutgers on Monday? WTF. I know this has been going on for a season or two but I hate it. There should be no Friday or Monday games. Period.
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Still tied going into tonight. Not super confident about the (#1) Buckeyes. Syracuse seems like the kind of team that could totally befuddle them.
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I think this will end up in a tie, after it's all said and done.
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This is why guys just jack threes
https://twitter.com/BarstoolBigCat/status/1067634306082881536?s=19
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3 of the 4 last night were legitimately great defense, and one of them sealed the game. While he does flop on many occasions, ya gotta give credit where due. The kid knows how to play defense with foot movement.
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Problem is guys are rewarded more for doing that than they are for challenging the offensive player, so they've mostly stopped trying. You are more likely to just draw a charge by standing in front of a guy, than you are not getting called for trying to defend him. Refs seemingly have no idea that most of the time an airborne challenge in the lane is the defender going straight up, and the offensive player going into him. So why not just stand there and act like you got shot with a cannon? That's the call they'll give you. Makes for unpleasant basketball. Nothing but 3 point shots and free throws.
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Problem is guys are rewarded more for doing that than they are for challenging the offensive player, so they've mostly stopped trying. You are more likely to just draw a charge by standing in front of a guy, than you are not getting called for trying to defend him. Refs seemingly have no idea that most of the time an airborne challenge in the lane is the defender going straight up, and the offensive player going into him. So why not just stand there and act like you got shot with a cannon? That's the call they'll give you. Makes for unpleasant basketball. Nothing but 3 point shots and free throws.
So this is not to defend Davison, because he needs too cool it, even if it works.
But I find it odd that we count all offensive fouls as "charges." I feel like there's three real categories.
True "charge" - Offensive player is coming in, defender beats him to the spot, he's mostly out of control. Clearly this is abused by guys sliding in, and Brad did that at least once
The shoulder drop - This is when an offensive player drops a shoulder to clear space. It's probably more legit than the first, but ends with some "fired out of a cannon" moments
The forearm push off - Offensive player uses the forearm to clear space. These are the easiest to call. There's sometimes some exaggeration, but I always felt like this was less a "charge" because it's mostly on the offensive player. In any case, that might just be my distinction.
Anyway, not a pretty UW win, but maybe NC State will be good.
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So far:
- Nebraska won at Clemson
- Minnesota lost at Boston College
- Illinois lost at Notre Dame
- Michigan State lost at Louisville
- Indiana lost at Dook
- 1-4 in road games
- Penn State beat VaTech at home
- Wisconsin beat NCST at home
- Iowa beat Pitt at home
- 3-0 in home games
There are six games tonight:
- Rutgers at Miami: Miami -11.5
- Purdue at Florida State: FSU -4.5
- 2 road games
- Ohio State hosts Syracuse: tOSU -5.5
- Maryland hosts Virginia: UVA -3.5
- Northwestern hosts GaTech: NU -7.5
- Michigan hosts North Carolina: M -3
- 4 home games
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think we should at least tie this thing.
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Dan Patrick show the guys said MSU has a player get 18 boards w/o taking a shot.Is that true,nice to see some defense,Rodman,Moses Malone,Bill Russel and Bob Lanier are smiling somewhere
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So this is not to defend Davison, because he needs too cool it, even if it works.
Anyway, not a pretty UW win, but maybe NC State will be good.
This is where I'm at, on both accounts. Davison is a rock on defense, but yeah, you can get a call without hitting the floor.
Did you know he was a HS quarterback? :67:
Heh. Maybe Chryst should take a look.
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This is where I'm at, on both accounts. Davison is a rock on defense, but yeah, you can get a call without hitting the floor.
Did you know he was a HS quarterback? :67:
Heh. Maybe Chryst should take a look.
He played quarterback? IN HIGH SCHOOOL!!!!!!
My goodness. We should tell someone. Next thing you know, we'll find out Jon Leuer had a growth spurt and Frank Kaminski started his career as a guard.
(I know why these things happen. Makes me wonder if the future is eventually radio simulcasts)
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So this is not to defend Davison, because he needs too cool it, even if it works.
But I find it odd that we count all offensive fouls as "charges." I feel like there's three real categories.
True "charge" - Offensive player is coming in, defender beats him to the spot, he's mostly out of control. Clearly this is abused by guys sliding in, and Brad did that at least once
The shoulder drop - This is when an offensive player drops a shoulder to clear space. It's probably more legit than the first, but ends with some "fired out of a cannon" moments
The forearm push off - Offensive player uses the forearm to clear space. These are the easiest to call. There's sometimes some exaggeration, but I always felt like this was less a "charge" because it's mostly on the offensive player. In any case, that might just be my distinction.
Anyway, not a pretty UW win, but maybe NC State will be good.
Yeah, I don't blame him, refs have created this. Granted I think Duke started it and it's been popularized over the past 15 or so years of playing to draw charges. I think the rules need to adjust too. Defenses have changed so that guys are coached to take charges, and it's those that I think make the game worse. It dissuades moves to the baskets, which IMO are the more exciting plays in the game.
I frequently point to back to back possessions in an MSU-UM game maybe 6 or so years ago. Costello on the defensive end made a perfect block. He went straight up, bodies collided, but the defender has the right to his spot straight up, and the offensive player jumped right into him. Got called for a blocking foul. Literally the next possession, he slid over and let Trey Burke run into him, without even really trying to get in a defensive position (which is another issue I have). He just stood there like a guy defending a soccer free kick. Got the charge call. Why would a guy attempt to play defense, when he's penalized for it, and rewarded for just standing there?
I think the two things that would vastly improve college basketball would be to move the 3 point line back, and reevaluate the charging rule. That would space the court more, and reward slashers, while making the risk/reward of taking a 3 less disproportionate to what it is now, while also cutting down on FTs. The "freedom of movement" stuff has just resulted in even less pacing, because guys aren't adjusting, there are just an obscene number of FTs. So put guys in more space, and reward guys for trying to play defense, rather than trying to draw fouls. I think you improve the game immensely. I think you'd also see "better" threes. The shot is too easy now. Too many good defensive possessions just end with a guy making a contested 3, because these guys are too good at it. A well executed play, resulting in an open 3 look is good for the game, jacked up contested 3s going in, largely I don't think is.
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I think the two things that would vastly improve college basketball would be to move the 3 point line back, and reevaluate the charging rule. That would space the court more, and reward slashers, while making the risk/reward of taking a 3 less disproportionate to what it is now, while also cutting down on FTs. The "freedom of movement" stuff has just resulted in even less pacing, because guys aren't adjusting, there are just an obscene number of FTs. So put guys in more space, and reward guys for trying to play defense, rather than trying to draw fouls. I think you improve the game immensely. I think you'd also see "better" threes. The shot is too easy now. Too many good defensive possessions just end with a guy making a contested 3, because these guys are too good at it. A well executed play, resulting in an open 3 look is good for the game, jacked up contested 3s going in, largely I don't think is.
Excellent all around, I agree completely...
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I frequently point to back to back possessions in an MSU-UM game maybe 6 or so years ago. Costello on the defensive end made a perfect block. He went straight up, bodies collided, but the defender has the right to his spot straight up, and the offensive player jumped right into him. Got called for a blocking foul. Literally the next possession, he slid over and let Trey Burke run into him, without even really trying to get in a defensive position (which is another issue I have). He just stood there like a guy defending a soccer free kick. Got the charge call. Why would a guy attempt to play defense, when he's penalized for it, and rewarded for just standing there?
1000 percent agree. How many charges get called when the player doesn't fling themselves backwards for show? Hardly any.
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Just like Melo, the kid has a legit shot in Hollywood.
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Maryland won't win many games at all if they can't get some 3-point shooting.
I know they're young, but when you dominate in the paint but get way behind early by the 3, it will be tougher for these guys to get back in it.
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Bucks look headed to a loss. Syracuse has hit some tough shots, and their length has really bothered OSU
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Maryland and OSU couldn't get it done, but Rutgers keeps us in it going into the last three games
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Hell of a win tonight, especially with a dominant second half (though UNC intentionally subbed out all their starters after Michigan blew it open before subbing them back in too late, though they did make a small comeback late).
Michigan is still tied for first in points allowed despite giving up 67 tonight. Kenpom stats aren't updated yet, but they should hold onto the top spot on defense there, too, especially since this game had more possessions than other Michigan games since North Carolina plays so fast.... The main concerns are still free throws, and they committed some dumb turnovers today. Otherwise, I think this week is showing that they still look like the best team in the BigTen so far and can beat anyone in the country.
Another big home game against Purdue on Saturday, though....
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That ending hurt... :03:
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"#1" OSU the only B1G team to lose a home game?
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Michigan looks like the clear frontrunner of a pretty loaded B1G
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I agree. They looked good. Watched it without sound though. When is that blowhard going to retire?
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"#1" OSU the only B1G team to lose a home game?
We all knew that the #1 ranking in the RPI replacement thing was not going to last. I think @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) posted that mostly in jest.
That said, the thing I am looking forward to finding out is if that home loss was mostly because Ohio State just isn't that good, or mostly because Syracuse is a matchup nightmare.
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So a few thoughts on the Challenge:
First, it was nice to get back to not losing. It flat sucked that the ACC jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first 10 of these from 1999-2008. That said, most of those were close and it always seemed to me like we generally got screwed based on which teams did not participate:
- From 1999-2004 we had 11 members in the old Big11Ten and they had nine so two of our teams sat and there were nine games each year except that in 2001 one of the games was cancelled so there were only eight.
- From 2005-2010 we had 11 members and (I think) they had 12 so one of their teams sat and there were 11 games each year.
- From 2011-2013 there were 12 games each year. I think we each had 12?
- From 2014-2017 there have been 14 games each year with all teams playing.
This was also a nice recovery from last years 3-11 disaster.
For my own team, ugh. Five years ago the Buckeyes were 7-6 in this thing and I think that they were the only B1G team with a winning record. Since then the challenge has not been kind to the Buckeyes:
- 2018: Lost at home to Syracuse by 10
- 2017: Lost at home to Clemson by 14
- 2016: Lost at Virginia by 2
- 2015: Lost at home to Virginia by 6
- 2014: Lost at Louisville by 9
It has been so long that the last time Ohio State won a B1G/ACC Challenge game the opponent was a team that is now in the B1G.
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I just felt sick after watching that game last night.
Purdue's final game in the Charleston tournament was one thing... Purdue jumped out to a big lead in the first half, but then in the second, Virginia Tech Could.Not.Miss. Seriously, we'd play good defense for 27 seconds, force them to jack up a contested 3, and they'd hit it. It's hard to beat any team that can do that.
But last night against FSU was different. They were frustrating us defensively the whole first half. We couldn't move the ball, we got sloppy and had lots of turnovers, and Carsen's shot wasn't hitting [yes he had something like 13 in the first half, but it was on a lot of volume]. In the second half, the team cleaned it up. We figured out how to get by them on defense, we figured out our lineup, and we ended up erasing their 12-point halftime lead, and at one point late I believe we were up 7.
And then we went right back to our first-half ways for the last 3 minutes of the game, and even THEN should have won. Only a boneheaded move by Cline, allowing FSU to tie him up when they had the possession arrow, and a good shot by FSU to go up 73-72 with 5.2 seconds left, turned the game.
It feels like a signature win was right there for the taking, in a game that we were underdogs, on the road. And we folded.
Now we have to go on the road to a red-hot UM, followed by MD at home and Texas on the road. This team needed to win at least one of this 4-game stretch, and now a game that they had within their grasp is a loss, increasing the pressure on the next three.
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I think it's pretty clear Michigan is easily the best team in the conference right now. It's early, things can change, but for now, that much seems obvious. Particularly considering how underwhelming MSU, OSU, Purdue, UW, Iowa and Minnesota were in the Challenge.
Tough to say one way or another about Indiana, Duke will make a lot of teams look bad. But among the contenders, the only team that didn't underwhelm was Maryland. That's a really good Virginia team, playing in November, when Bennett can still win, and the Terps gave them all they could handle
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UNL won on Monday
PSU, Iowa and Wisky won on Tuesday
Rutgers, NW and Michigan won on Wednesday
Basically... the lower half of the BIG carried the league in the challenge. Is that a sign of depth?
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Forgot about Nebraska on Monday. Count them among the contenders who played well. I also care less at this point about W/L vs. how you looked. UW and Iowa both got wins, but looked not good in close home wins over lower tier ACC teams. While Maryland had a very impressive close loss to the #4 team in the nation. Northwestern won a game between two non factors.
PSU had a nice win, but already has a loss to DePaul, so I'm not sure what that means. They may have just pulled an upset. Not ready to call them a contender.
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UNL is not a contender. I'm not offended by you leaving them off. TT proved that. They're a bubble team and a good win or a bad loss will put them in or out.
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Yeah, but Maryland played, at home, against an ACC rival.
You saw the "best" we had to offer.
I don't expect a young team like ours to take a few games seriously, and get embarrassed.
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Yeah, but Maryland played, at home, against an ACC rival.
You saw the "best" we had to offer.
I don't expect a young team like ours to take a few games seriously, and get embarrassed.
Yeah, I'd agree that was Maryland's best. But it was pretty damn good. It's not like that was Virginia's C game. Cavs played well too, and Terps almost got em.
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Yeah, but Maryland played, at home, against an ACC rival.
You saw the "best" we had to offer.
I don't expect a young team like ours to take a few games seriously, and get embarrassed.
Feel free to tell the team not to take the Purdue game seriously... kthxbye :)
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Forgot about Nebraska on Monday. Count them among the contenders who played well. I also care less at this point about W/L vs. how you looked. UW and Iowa both got wins, but looked not good in close home wins over lower tier ACC teams. While Maryland had a very impressive close loss to the #4 team in the nation. Northwestern won a game between two non factors.
On that metric, I actually score the Boilers pretty well... They went on the road to the #15 team in the nation, and as a young and relatively green team held strong against a VERY long and athletic team. That the team rallied from its first half mistakes and deficit to actually come back and lead was pretty solid.
Much like UMD, as @mcwterps1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1590) points out, it's a very young team growing as they go. Replacing the 4 seniors is not easy, and you can see that Painter is experimenting and learning his rotation as much as the players are learning their roles.
But I think the pieces are there for this team to be VERY dangerous in February and March.
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I wasn't expecting you all to be so deferential to Michigan. They did keep the #1 defense ranking in Kenpom by a decent margin over Virginia, while the offense rose to 25th to get them to 6th overall. In a lot of ways, this team is reminiscent of Virginia's and Wisconsin's best teams in recent years.
As I mentioned before the season, Michigan is fortunate to avoid trips to Lincoln, West Lafayette, and Columbus now that Ohio State is a surprise team, again. I think they'll lose at least 3-5 games even if they stay healthy. Beilein hasn't ever lost fewer than 6 games in a season (and that was at Nazareth and LeMoyne) or fewer than 8 games at the power-conference level (which was the first national title losing team), and that team similarly strong at 16-0, so I don't necessarily think this team easily gets to 30+ wins.
The other big concern I forgot to mention earlier is that Michigan still needs Johns and/or DeJulius to be break into the rotation in case of injury, foul trouble (the one downside to being so good defensively is that there is a greater risk of fouling than in past years), or someone having a really bad game for whatever reason. The current 7-man rotation is great, to be sure, but being able to go 10-deep (Austin Davis being the other borderline rotation player) when necessary would be nice.
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5* PF Trayce Jackson-Davis of Center Grove HS south of Indy has committed to IU.
Bring on Keion Brooks now.
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That kind of came out of nowhere, I think he just said he was going to slow things down.
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Ugh, McQuaid still unable to travel due to blood clot concerns.
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That kind of came out of nowhere, I think he just said he was going to slow things down.
I think everyone knew it was IU for TJD... Maybe by "slow things down" he decided to just finish it.
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Bring on Keion Brooks now.
Oddly enough I'm hearing that Painter continues to make his push HARD for Brooks. I think most Purdue fans figure it's a lost cause, but Painter hasn't given up. Now that Malik Hall is at MSU and TJD is at IU, I wonder if Brooks would like to avoid playing at the same school as either?
I still think it's a VERY long shot, but if he could swing Brooks to Purdue, that would be amazing.
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Please tell me CBS or tnt or tbs won't share this camera angle being used by BTN for this game at us bank stadium for Final four.
Feels like a game from Yugoslavia. The shadows. Drab. Cement blocks.
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Wisconsin rallies and wins a game in Iowa it had no business taking. Feel pretty good about that one.
Also, Michigan has a tremendously mean defense. And that’s impressive primarily because I think back a few years when some of us might’ve said that brand of ball was too soft for the conference. Amazing how that coaching program have changed.
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So, are the Badgers any good?
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So, are the Badgers any good?
/Does some math
Yes
It's been interesting. Happ has been Happ. Davison has been a little short of what I hoped, Prtizel has kinda of, since his shooting is off, but he's been king glue guy. Iverson has been fine.
But among guys who played better: Trice, who is far better than I hoped; King, I thought he might get lost in the shuffle; Reuvers, thought he might not make THAT big a jump but he's been an ideal No. 2 big and heir apparent.
Good to be back.
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Got a bit concerned when Happ and Nate got 4 Fran Fouls on them, and then when Happ fouled out after the uncalled charge. But, they pulled it off as Iowa became unglued. Bravo to Pritzl and Trice last night. Those two played big-time games.
Feel bad for Anderson. Sounds like he's got an ACL problem and could miss the season. That is concerning because it's clear Strickland is not ready for prime-time.
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Oddly enough I'm hearing that Painter continues to make his push HARD for Brooks. I think most Purdue fans figure it's a lost cause, but Painter hasn't given up. Now that Malik Hall is at MSU and TJD is at IU, I wonder if Brooks would like to avoid playing at the same school as either?
I still think it's a VERY long shot, but if he could swing Brooks to Purdue, that would be amazing.
Would be funny if MSU moved from Brooks to Hall, after assuming Brooks was all red; only for Brooks to take Hall's spot at Purdue.
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Don't sleep on this 10:30 AM Buffalo-San Francisco game from Dublin. Buffalo is ranked in the top 25, with a road win over WVU; and I think the computer metrics really like this undefeated USF team. Better than Gameday
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Michigan is so damn good
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Michigan is so damn good
I hope they get two years out of Iggy, but I don’t like my odds at this point. If he’s not NBA material at the end of the season he is a shoe-in to be cast alongside Viggo in an Eastern Promises sequel.
They will need to get very creative to keep Yaklich too.
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I hope they get two years out of Iggy, but I don’t like my odds at this point. If he’s not NBA material at the end of the season he is a shoe-in to be cast alongside Viggo in an Eastern Promises sequel.
They will need to get very creative to keep Yaklich too.
I told my buddy he looks like the guy who, after Bruce Willis unmemorably dispatches of a half dozen henchmen, he's the one left who actually challenges him, before being killed in a creative way.
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Michigan is so damn good
Yep.
This is a rebuilding year for Purdue, but they hung tough with VT and FSU. Michigan is making this look like a paycheck game.
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Michigan has two major flaws:
Depth. Belein is currently running a 7.5 man rotation (Davis being the .5). They will hit foul trouble at a juncture, very likely on the road, and it will hurt them.Belein has a tigh rotation you typically start to see out of a coach in early Feb.
The other is free throw shooting.
But when guys like Simpson and Teske go even up agains their matchups (Edwards and Harms), and do it in a more efficient matter, they are tough to beat. The offensive production comes from the rest.
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Buckeyes with a big blow, as Luther Muhammad is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury
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The offense was great in the first half and then Purdue made some good adjustments except in defending 3s. Conversely, the defense struggled early before playing better late. Overall, I certainly can't complain, though.
Now they need to stay focused for Northwestern, because they appear to be better than expected, and of course, they were the last team to beat Michigan aside from the National Championship Game last year. After that, the remaining 4 non-con games should be easy wins (including South Carolina which has fallen off from their Final Four run team that dominated Michigan in Columbia 2 years ago), so hopefully Johns and DeJulius can get more meaningful minutes in those games and give the regular rotation some rest.
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Nebraska stormed to a nine-point lead a little more than two minutes into the game, and the Huskers started Big Ten play 1-0 with a 75-60 win over Illinois Sunday afternoon at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
Unlike last season, when James Palmer’s three-pointer at the buzzer gave the Huskers a one-point win over the Illini, Nebraska led the entire way and by nine or more for the last 23 minutes of the game.
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Bcuckeyes with a 20 point win over Minnesota. A little surprising to me, I thought they would struggle after losing Muhammad.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DtdSxYAUUAAXmuL.jpg)
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That had to be the best MSU has played since hammering UNC during their Thanksgiving tournament 13 months ago.
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Iowa looked like it brought that loss on Friday with them to East Lansing. This is what happens when you have an emotional mess for a coach.
BTW, Rutgers actually looks pretty darn good. They more than held their own in Madison tonight and against MSU last week. They will win some games this season.
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Iowa looked like it brought that loss on Friday with them to East Lansing. This is what happens when you have an emotional mess for a coach.
BTW, Rutgers actually looks pretty darn good. They more than held their own in Madison tonight and against MSU last week. They will win some games this season.
Rutgers defense is low-key nasty, but UW offense found itself down the stretch
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Seemed to me that the good UW defense fed that better offense last night. They were pretty lockdown in the 2nd half, save for a few lapses. That can be fixed too.
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Iowa looked like it brought that loss on Friday with them to East Lansing. This is what happens when you have an emotional mess for a coach.
It actually just looked like Iowa still can't play defense. Their zone last night was one of the most poorly executed I've ever seen. MSU was missing 3s, or it would have been worse. But they were allowing Goins to sit in the middle and take his pick. Take the jumper, give Ward a feed. When you allow a guy set a career high in assists, two guys to set career highs in points, and a former walkon get a double-double, and flirt with a triple-double (finished with 7 assists), you laid a defensive egg.
I think it's possible Iowa is still just not good. That Oregon win doesn't look great anymore, Ducks lost at Houston and at home to Texas Southern last week. That's what happens when the polls overreact based on their assumption that their preseason rankings were correct. Iowa beat a top 15 team, so they must be a top 15 team, except the presumed top 15 team ain't a top 15 team after all.
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UM- Northwestern just had the most entertaining half of basketball I've watched all year.
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For a neutral fan I guess it was entertaining, but it was incredibly frustrating for me. Exacerbating things was that I thought the refs called it too close and inconsistently, but so it goes. Fortunately, Northwestern missed a lot of free throws, especially on the most questionable calls, interestingly enough.
Northwestern made some defensive adjustments in the middle of the second half it seemed, and Michigan couldn't get good shots and committed too many dumb turnovers. They left Simpson wide open on several 3s in a row, all of which he missed, of course. Meanwhile, they hit a ridiculous number of difficult shots (the banked 3 by Pardon for instance) that I was almost surprised the last one missed thankfully. Pardon got too many easy shots at the rim and not just against Davis, who appears to be more of a liability than anticipated, but otherwise the defense was pretty good, despite giving up 60. Northwestern having Donlon as an assistant (who was at Michigan for a year) definitely helps them in this game, too.
It's very good timing that Michigan just has easy non-con games left in December with South Carolina potentially being the worst team in the SEC this year. This game showed how Michigan needs better depth beyond its main 7 man rotation, so hopefully Davis, DeJulius, and Johns can get more meaningful minutes in these games.
I was encouraged by the team's resilience, though, especially with Brazdeikis making some big shots towards the end.
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It'd have been cool to see Michigan take the "hasn't finished with a margin lower than +17 points" streak deeper into Big Ten play. But that wasn't realistic or, perhaps even as healthy for the team as it is fun for the fans. Good to prove they could win close. Especially against a pesky (if middling team) in an arena where Michigan has bad recent history (had lost 3 in a row).
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FWIW, my preferred metric for NCAA tourney seeding, SOR, now has Michigan #1 in the nation.
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Massey composite rankings (35 rankings), with last week in parenthesis (remember it only updates through Sunday's results)...
- Duke (1)
- Gonzaga (2)
- MICHIGAN (4)
- Kansas (3)
- Virginia (5)
- Auburn (10)
- Nevada (14)
- Texas Tech (9)
- Virginia Tech (8)
- MICHIGAN STATE (6)
- North Carolina (7)
- Tennessee (12)
- WISCONSIN (16)
- OHIO STATE (11)
- NEBRASKA (17)
- Florida State (15)
- PURDUE (13)
- Buffalo (24)
- Kentucky (-)
- Cincinnati (25)
- Iowa State (-)
- Arizona State (23)
- Villanova (19)
- Oklahoma (-)
- MARYLAND (-)
- 30. Indiana (29)
- 34. Iowa (26)
- 47. Penn State (49)
- 54. Northwestern (54)
- 63. Minnesota (44)
- 70. Rutgers (75)
- 105. Illinois (118)
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Which is also kind of making me start thinking about tiers, which I try to gauge by NYD
1 - Michigan (national title contender)
2 - MSU, UW, OSU, Nebraska, Purdue (legit Top 25 teams)
3 - Maryland, Indiana (tourney locks)
4 - Iowa, PSU, NW (could make the tourney with some breaks, but I'm guessing NIT)
5 - Minnesota, Rutgers (below average)
6 - Illinois (bad)
?
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Purdue has dropped out of the top 25 in the AP, and is sitting at 24 in the Coaches poll...
A lot of Purdue fans on the H&R comment sections are apoplectic that we can't beat ranked teams. Yet all the computer ranking still have us mid-teens.
Going to be an interesting couple of weeks with MD coming to town tomorrow, Purdue going to Texas this weekend, and playing ND in the Crossroads Classic next weekend. Purdue could go 3-0 or 0-3 in this stretch.
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Notre Dame is not good. If Purdue loses that game, they are in big trouble. Maryland is good, but it's in West Lafayette. None of Purdues big games have been at home yet, right?
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Part of my Michigan formula for a loss played out last night. Foul trouble and some poor free throw shooting, combined with Simpson playing outside of himself.
As seen at the Bryce Jordan and Welsh Ryan last night however, every road win in the B1G is a Great Win. With better balance to the conference than we have seen in years, they are going to be tough to come by.
Collins went full Dukie last night flopping onto his hands and knees in the middle of the court and slapping the floor.
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Notre Dame is not good. If Purdue loses that game, they are in big trouble. Maryland is good, but it's in West Lafayette. None of Purdues big games have been at home yet, right?
Correct, none of the big ones have been at home. VTech was a neutral site, and FSU and UM were both on the road.
Notre Dame will also be a neutral site, but I agree that this now appears to be a much easier game for Purdue than it looked preseason.
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Collins went full Dukie last night flopping onto his hands and knees in the middle of the court and slapping the floor.
I know I'm in the minority as a Maryland fan, but I always that was a cool signature move for Duke when they used to do it. McwTerps is going to disown me...
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I didn't realize players slapping the floor had any kind of long tradition. I only know that MSU has 5-7 years of doing it in Michigan games when going back on defense ... then maybe getting scored on literally every possession except for one or two.
If Duke has a tradition of slapping the floor then actually backing it up, that's a lot cooler.
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I didn't realize players slapping the floor had any kind of long tradition. I only know that MSU has 5-7 years of doing it in Michigan games when going back on defense ... then maybe getting scored on literally every possession except for one or two.
If Duke has a tradition of slapping the floor then actually backing it up, that's a lot cooler.
I think it started the first season Krzyzewski was there, like 1981 or 1982.
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Luther Muhamad back for the Bucks
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I know I'm in the minority as a Maryland fan, but I always that was a cool signature move for Duke when they used to do it. McwTerps is going to disown me...
Bro.....
He looked like a sniveling little weasel.
His Dook roots were showing, that's for sure.
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Bucks get a win over the Illini. 49 fouls called in the game.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dtsw2LiWoAE7taN.jpg)
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A whopping 5000+ fans showed up to the United Center to see that game. Giving away a home game for that is such a head scratcher. A home game in the middle of the week while the students are still around. Ship it to Chicago. So dumb.
Typical Illinois game. Tons of fouls, competitive for awhile and then long scoring droughts. This one lacked the fake rally to make it close and then ultimately collapse.
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Yeah, if you are going to do that, put it over Winter Break
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It was not a good look. And if you're going to do that (don't please), do it as ELA suggests and do it against an OOC team that will draw a crowd on its own.
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Which is also kind of making me start thinking about tiers, which I try to gauge by NYD
1 - Michigan (national title contender)
2 - MSU, UW, OSU, Nebraska, Purdue (legit Top 25 teams)
3 - Maryland, Indiana (tourney locks)
4 - Iowa, PSU, NW (could make the tourney with some breaks, but I'm guessing NIT)
5 - Minnesota, Rutgers (below average)
6 - Illinois (bad)
?
This looks about right to me but I haven't created the predictor spreadsheet for this year yet (I have to enter all of the games with locations so it takes a LONG time). The way things are looking here it will probably be a little bit. Might as well wait until all of our teams have played their two early conference games (just waiting on UMD at PU tonight) and the balance of their quality OOC games then set it up.
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Heh, except Minnesota already screwed it up last night. I did actually initially have them in 4, so maybe that was right. I'm also not opposed to Nebraska at 3. Those would solve that, while actually just flipping the two I was most on the fence about.
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It was not a good look. And if you're going to do that (don't please), do it as ELA suggests and do it against an OOC team that will draw a crowd on its own.
I don't object to neutral site BB games but it was just silly to do it mid-week. If that had been on a weekend over winter break I'm sure some Illini (and for that matter) Buckeye students home in the Chicago area would have attended. Additionally, over a weekend a lot more people would have at least considered travelling to Chicago for the game. If that had been a Saturday I might have thought about it but I'm not driving to Chicago on a Wednesday to watch one game and drive back on Thursday.
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Heh, except Minnesota already screwed it up last night
Well, I said "about right" and there will be upsets.
Last night was weird for trying to determine tOSU's place. The close game (trailing at the half) with a bad Illinois team didn't look good but then in the late game a Minnesota team that tOSU manhandled a couple days ago beat a ranked UNL team so that looks good.
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Looking at Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are 6-1 OOC with four to go. Those four are:
- vs Bucknell at home on 12/15, ESPN says 90.6% chance tOSU wins.
- vs YSU at home on 12/18, ESPN says 98% chance tOSU wins.
- vs UCLA (United Center) on 12/22, ESPN says 77.5% chance tOSU wins.
- vs High Point at home on 12/29, ESPN says 95.3% chance tOSU wins.
The Buckeyes should finish the OOC at 10-1 and they will obviously be 2-0 in conference heading into a game against MSU on January 5. 12-1 heading into MSU is good but I'm not sure how much it says because most of the games are against nobody of consequence. I'm still trying to get a read on the home loss to Syracuse. The Orange certainly are not a great team (6-2 with losses to UCONN and Oregon) but maybe that was more of a match-up problem. I'm not sure yet.
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UNL is a 3 or a 4... bubble in or bubble out type team. jmo
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I think the Huskers are a better team than last year, but with a tougher schedule, won't be able to win as many conference games
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Heh, except Minnesota already screwed it up last night. I did actually initially have them in 4, so maybe that was right. I'm also not opposed to Nebraska at 3. Those would solve that, while actually just flipping the two I was most on the fence about.
I'd say Nebraska screwed it up after watching the game. Very little reason to allow the Gophers that come back win.
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Yeah, MSU used to always play a game in Detroit, can't remember if they still do. But it was over Winter Break, so you wouldn't have students anyway, and it was against a solid draw OOC team, not giving away a conference game. I recall such games against Oklahoma, Stanford, Texas and maybe Kentucky I believe?
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The first part is true, but if the second part is too**, then whoa. From mgoblog today:
"Michigan's 23-1 run stretching back to last year would be the #1 efficiency D in the history of Kenpom if it was a single season. And it seems like the bit from last year is the "bad" part."
**("seems like" is weak and I haven't confirmed)
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Okay
Not a foul....
:67:
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi142.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fr89%2Fmcwups1%2F2018_12_6_20_1_14_zpsjw51vwjm.jpg&hash=533958b09e1e3d24e5efdd5fd0f31987)" />
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Iowa needed that
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I don't think I dislike any Big Ten coaches. But Matt Painter is probably my favorite outside of Beilein. Seems candid and utterly normal and, win or lose, I reeeeeally enjoy how they talk about each other's teams after their games.
Anyway, came here because I found out they won, which is probably a relief for them, and am glad for both M and PU that they did.
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Clearly I underestimated South Carolina, but to be fair, I didn't realize they had two new rotation players that were both better than most of the others - One guy was coming off an injury and the other from their football team. Their team is not good by any means, but they're good enough to pull some upsets in the SEC.
That said, it was a very fugly game, especially in the first half. Michigan had an absurd number of turnovers, many of which were unforced. South Carolina was getting way too many shots at the rim and also hit some difficult ones like Northwestern, but they also shot and hit enough threes to keep Michigan's defense honest. Again, I'll give the defense some benefit of the doubt given what they've done the rest of the year, and South Carolina had two players that hadn't been playing, but this should motivate them to get better.
Turnovers aside, it was encouraging to see Michigan's offense play so well. South Carolina did speed up the game to make it higher-scoring, but Michigan was able to adjust to it. Poole had a big game, especially in the second half, while Teske, Brazdeikis, and Livers also had really good games.
Because the game was always somewhat (but not really) in doubt, only the main rotation players played. Johns and DeJulius should get some meaningful minutes in the remaining non-con games. Johns would be particularly nice to see emerge, considering Austin Davis' mistakes in limited minutes.
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Good win for Sparty today.
This Seton Hall game is fun. Man, I cannot stand Kentucky. I hope The Hall wins this thing.
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The Badgers are in a dog fight with the Warriors. Should be a good second half, based on the first. Lots of recruiting battles on the floor tonight. Most of these kids know each other, going way back. That makes it fun. Great rivalry.
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SC is flat out awful.
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An untimely nut shot
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Hack a Happ
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Wow. Weak foul call there.
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Good win for Sparty today.
This Seton Hall game is fun. Man, I cannot stand Kentucky. I hope The Hall wins this thing.
True road wins are so precious in basketball. It's nice to see the Kyle Ahrens we all saw in the recruiting videos prior to two injuries. He actually won a national HS dunk contest. That's the biggest development.
As for Seton Hall's win, no clue why but I've always really liked Seton Hall with no rational explanation.
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I don't get UCLA basketball having helmet status. When Notre Dame or Michigan football, or Kentucky basketball have down stretches, they still take in money, and have huge fan bases. UCLA has garbage facilities and zero fan base. Why are they considered a basketball brand school? They seem more like Minnesota football, in that they had an extended period of greatness a while ago, but derive no current benefit from it, even when the results aren't there, which seems to be the measure of a helmet.
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UCLA was awesome when the kids in Westwood were making more money than the men in Milwaukee.
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Tough pill to swallow for UW last night. Free throws and turnovers did them in. Seemed like they choked too. Davison missed two (he's 90+%) and Trice had butterfingers.
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Tough pill to swallow for UW last night. Free throws and turnovers did them in. Seemed like they choked too. Davison missed two (he's 90+%) and Trice had butterfingers.
It was a game they could’ve pulled out, had a good spurt come at any point down the stretch. Never did.
Davison looks off. Will be interesting to see if he can play through it. I thought it would be a down-to-the-wire affair, and it was, but you can’t miss open 3s, fail to protect the defensive glass, Miss a mess of free throws AND turn it over a little too much, even if you defend well and do a pretty good job on Howard.
And oddly the game turned on a punch in the groin, which was either a unfortunate accident or a VERY boneheaded move. My gut is the first, but I have biases.
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Oh, I think he meant to do it. Bush move if so.
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Oh, I think he meant to do it. Bush move if so.
I’ll set aside the bush part, if intentional it was far more stupid.
Punch someone in the nuts up or down 15, not down 4 in effin OT.
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The other maddening thing is that the kid who took the nut punch would have been a Badger had Herro not been "committed", only so he could end up at Ken*$#%y.
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I think Davison likes the heel look.
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I think he might be liking the riding the pine look for a few games.
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I assuming a few of these are due to playing 14 conference games already, but still, this should hopefully help come March
https://twitter.com/ByTeddyBailey/status/1071951754139443200
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Purdue, according to Kenpom, has the 8th-hardest schedule to date in the country. 6-4, with losses all to teams that are currently ranked or nearly so, all at neutral sites or true road games.
Should be expected to beat Notre Dame, Belmont, and Ohio, finishing OOC with 8-3 record and at 1-1 in conference.
But with the B1G looking so tough this year, and with a tough B1G schedule given our and 1-play home/away vs 2-play splits, we probably need to get to at least 12-8 in conference to have any shot at the tournament.
It's going to be painful to see this team not get there, especially after playing so tough against VT, FSU, and Texas. Every one of those games were within reach (@UM wasn't), and we lost all three.
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I assuming a few of these are due to playing 14 conference games already, but still, this should hopefully help come March
https://twitter.com/ByTeddyBailey/status/1071951754139443200
That's stunning. Even if all 14 conference wins were Top 50 (doubtful) and excluded, they'd still lead the nation by a few notches. Michigan has provided 4 or 5. The Big Ten is really strong. Especially in the middle.
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Purdue, according to Kenpom, has the 8th-hardest schedule to date in the country. 6-4, with losses all to teams that are currently ranked or nearly so, all at neutral sites or true road games.
Should be expected to beat Notre Dame, Belmont, and Ohio, finishing OOC with 8-3 record and at 1-1 in conference.
But with the B1G looking so tough this year, and with a tough B1G schedule given our and 1-play home/away vs 2-play splits, we probably need to get to at least 12-8 in conference to have any shot at the tournament.
It's going to be painful to see this team not get there, especially after playing so tough against VT, FSU, and Texas. Every one of those games were within reach (@UM wasn't), and we lost all three.
I find it incredibly unlikely that the Boilers will miss. I'd like another outsider's opinion because your take seems needlessly pessimistic.
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I find it incredibly unlikely that the Boilers will miss. I'd like another outsider's opinion because your take seems needlessly pessimistic.
They haven't beat a good team yet.
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Ok. "Yet." I'd gamble them to hit 20 or 21 wins. I doubt that could come without enough big wins to be in. Is 20 wins unrealistic? Is a bid at 19 strictly-point-strictly impossible?
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They haven't beat a good team yet.
Maryland is a good team.
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Maryland is a good team.
Cowan and Fernando are good.
That's where it ends.
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Well, Purdue essentially has Carsen Edwards and...….?
Maybe Cline? Maybe Haarms?
This year is looking a lot like Robbie Hummel's last year. He was still really really good, and the supporting cast around him wasn't horrible, but not great either. Just bad enough to come out on the losing end of close games (like the 3 point loss to Xavier or the 2 point loss to Butler. I want to say they lost 6 games that year by 5 points or less). IIRC, that team also started the year ranked but limped into the tournament at 20 wins. They won the first game and then went up against Kansas. The rest is blocked out in my memory.
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Maryland is a good team.
I overlooked that. Based on Kenpom standards, yep, that's a good win.
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Ok. "Yet." I'd gamble them to hit 20 or 21 wins. I doubt that could come without enough big wins to be in. Is 20 wins unrealistic? Is a bid at 19 strictly-point-strictly impossible?
Ok, so OOC assuming a win over ND will probably be 8-3. And they're 1-1 in conference, thankfully already having finished their only game against UM.
Remaining conference:
Home: IA, RU, IU, MSU, MIN, NEB, PSU, IL, OSU
Away: MSU, WIS, OSU, PSU, MD, IU, NEB, MIN, NU
I've got likely wins in bold, likely losses in italics, and anything remaining is IMHO is in between. With those 18 games, would need a 11-7 record to finish 12-8 in conference to get to 20 wins. Given that I've already penciled in 6 losses in there, I feel like it's going to be really hard to get there.
Now, there are possible options. Say we finish with 19 wins, but then take 2 games in the BTT. Maybe that does it. But I get the feeling that Purdue might be relying on a strong showing in the conference tourney to make it to the right side of the bubble.
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All the computers still really like Purdue. Their losses are totally forgivable, but none of of the wins are impressive. So really we have no idea until they start playing more of those middling games. Maryland is nice, but those home games are the ones you have to have. It's when they start playing bubble teams on the road (like an Iowa or Penn State or Minnesota) or home games against like a Wisconsin or UM or MSU, that we'll know more.
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Agreed. Just saying that without the impressive wins, we're rapidly reaching a point where there is no margin. With such a young team, that's a difficult place to be.
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I find it incredibly unlikely that the Boilers will miss. I'd like another outsider's opinion because your take seems needlessly pessimistic.
To answer your question I started setting up the 2018-2019 projection chart. I have a lot of work left to get it ready but from here it looks like Michigan has the most favorable B1G schedule and Purdue the least:
- The three potential road games that the Wolverines do not play this year are all against tier-2 teams (Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue) which means that Michigan misses three of the five toughest games they could possibly have.
- The three potential road games that the Boilermakers doe not play this year are against a tier-4, a tier-5, and a tier-6 team which means that Purdue misses three of the easier potential road games.
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Thoughts on tiers:
A few questions:
In the past our tier-based projections have been based on the theory that a team would lose road games against teams in their tier and the two tiers below. Ie, on a 26 game double-round-robin schedule Michigan would go 19-7 with road losses to the five tier-2 schools and the two tier-3 schools. Similarly, all of the tier-2 schools would go 16-10 with road losses to the tier-1 school, the other tier-2 schools, the tier-3 schools, and the three tier-4 schools. The last few years home court seems to be less important so I'm thinking we should switch to just the adjacent tiers. Ie, on a 26 game double-round robin schedule Michigan would go 21-5 with road losses to the five tier-2 schools. Similarly, the tier-2 schools would go 19-7 with road losses to the tier-1 school, the other tier-2 schools, and the tier-3 schools.
Do we have consensus on tiers:
- Michigan
- MSU, UW, tOSU, UNL, PU
- UMD, IU
- IA, PSU, NU
- MN, RU
- IL
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I thought by tier, you would lose on the road to ONE tier below you, but two tiers below you would win home or away...
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I thought by tier, you would lose on the road to ONE tier below you, but two tiers below you would win home or away...
I think the last few years we did two but yeah, I agree. It is or should be and will be one. Based on the tentative tiers (not accounting for any upsets that already happened because I haven't set all that up yet):
- We will project Michigan to go 18-2. We would project them to go 21-5 in a double-round-robin and the six games that they do not play are three projected losses (@UNL, @tOSU, @PU) and three wins (vIL, vIA, vRU) thus 18-2.
- We would project the tier-2 teams to go 19-7 in a double-round-robin and once I get everything set up I'll have projections for them all but for now Purdue misses six wins (@IL, @IA, @RU, vM, vNU, vUW) so their projection will be 13-7.
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I thought by tier, you would lose on the road to ONE tier below you, but two tiers below you would win home or away...
Yeah, we always did just one tier I thought
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I don't yet know what to make of this. Well, except "Poor Damn Fran McCaffery," I don't.
Coaches in close games (win% in close ones graphed against frequency of closeness):
https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1072161035400986624
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DuET38mWwAAbmQu.jpg)
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Fran is about where I'd expect him. Not a bad coach, but just about the last guy I'd want in a tight situation. In fairness, he was probably already ejected for about half of those losses.
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Kids feed off their head coach, and when the head coach melts down, well, that's that.
In other news, UW got a transfer yesterday. Micah Potter from Ohio State has pledged to the Badgers and will enroll next semester.
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Kids feed off their head coach, and when the head coach melts down, well, that's that.
In other news, UW got a transfer yesterday. Micah Potter from Ohio State has pledged to the Badgers and will enroll next semester.
He should be a good fit there, has a good inside outside game.
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Here are all 14 teams sorted by tentative tier. The columns are:
- Team: The team in Question.
- noAway: a team that they do not play on the road.
- noAway: a team that they do not play on the road.
- noAway: a team that they do not play on the road.
- noHome: a team that they do not host.
- noHome: a team that they do not host.
- noHome: a team that they do not host.
- RR-W: The number of wins that our tier-based system projects this team would get in a full 26-game double-round-robin.
- RR-L: The number of losses that our tier-based system projects this team would get in a full 26-game double-round-robin.
- miss-W: The number of wins we project that this team would get in the six games not played (#2-#7) if they were played.
- miss-L: The number of losses we project that this team would get in the six games not played (#2-#7) if they were played.
- Proj-W: #8 minus #10. The number of wins we project after deducting games not played.
- Proj-L: #9 minus #11. The number of losses we project after deducting games not played.
- RR%: The projected winning percentage in a full 26-game double-round-robin.
- Proj%: The projected winning percentage after deducting the six games not played.
- Diff: #15 minus #14. Ie, this is a rough measure of favor-ability of schedule. Ie, Michigan (0.092) has the most favorable schedule while Purdue (-0.081) has the least favorable schedule.
Team | noAway | noAway | noAway | noHome | noHome | noHome | RR-W | RR-L | miss-W | miss-L | Proj-W | Proj-L | RR% | Proj% | Diff |
M | UNL | tOSU | PU | IL | IA | RU | 21 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 0.808 | 0.900 | 0.092 |
UNL | NU | tOSU | UW | IU | M | RU | 19 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 0.731 | 0.750 | 0.019 |
UW | MSU | PU | RU | IU | UNL | tOSU | 19 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 0.731 | 0.750 | 0.019 |
MSU | UMD | MN | NU | IL | PSU | UW | 19 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 0.731 | 0.700 | (0.031) |
tOSU | MN | PSU | UW | IU | M | UNL | 19 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 0.731 | 0.700 | (0.031) |
Purdue | IL | IA | RU | M | NU | UW | 19 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 0.731 | 0.650 | (0.081) |
IU | UNL | tOSU | UW | UMD | MN | PSU | 15 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 0.577 | 0.600 | 0.023 |
UMD | IL | IU | NU | IA | MSU | RU | 15 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 0.577 | 0.550 | (0.027) |
NU | MN | PSU | PU | UMD | MSU | UNL | 8 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 0.308 | 0.350 | 0.042 |
PSU | IU | IA | MSU | MN | NU | tOSU | 8 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0.308 | 0.300 | (0.008) |
Iowa | IL | UMD | M | MN | PSU | PU | 8 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0.308 | 0.250 | (0.058) |
Minny | IU | IA | PSU | MSU | NU | tOSU | 5 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 0.192 | 0.200 | 0.008 |
RU | UMD | M | UNL | IL | PU | UW | 5 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 0.192 | 0.200 | 0.008 |
ILL | M | MSU | RU | IA | UMD | PU | 2 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 0.077 | 0.100 | 0.023 |
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B1G Tournament seeds based on those projections:
- 18-2 Michigan
- 15-5 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
- 15-5 Wisconsin
- 14-6 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker over tOSU based on record against M)
- 14-6 Ohio State
- 13-7 Purdue
- 12-8 Indiana
- 11-9 Maryland
- 7-13 Northwestern
- 6-14 Penn State
- 5-15 Iowa
- 4-16 Rutgers (wins tiebreaker over MN based on record against NU)
- 4-16 Minnesota
- 2-18 Illinois
The match-ups at the B1G Tournament at the United Center in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #12 Rutgers vs #13 Minnesota, 6:30pm on BTN
- #11 Iowa vs #14 Illinois, 9pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14:
- #5 Ohio State vs RU/MN, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Purdue vs IA/IL, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Indiana vs #10 Penn State, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Maryland vs #9 Northwestern, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan vs UMD/NU, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Nebraska vs IU/PSU, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Wisconsin vs PU/IA/IL, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Michigan State vs tOSU/RU/MN, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- M/UMD/NU vs MSU/tOSU/RU/MN, 1pm on CBS
- UNL/IU/PSU vs UW/PU/IA/IL, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- M/UMD/NU/MSU/tOSU/RU/MN vs UNL/IU/PSU/UW/PU/IA/IL, 3:30pm on CBS
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Thoughts on going to the B1G Tournament this March in Chicago:
If you are considering it, I highly recommend it. My (now) wife and I went to the B1G Tournament in Chicago back in 2015. One neat thing about it is that you will be there for Chicago's St. Patrick's Day celebrations on Saturday, March 16. They die the river green and hold a big parade all downtown not too far from the downtown hotels and the bus to the United Center.
The City runs extra express busses from downtown to the United Center and that REALLY helps getting there and back.
Also, if you get there a day early you can celebrate Pi Day in Chicago. Marcel (@nuwildcat ) would understand. When my wife and I went in 2015 we met up with him.
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So we decided to leave Nebraska and MInnesota where they were, and leave that an upset. I was on the fence on both and made them 2/5, but I think they could easily be 3/4, and Minnesota's home win over the Huskers already would verify that.
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Kids feed off their head coach, and when the head coach melts down, well, that's that.
In other news, UW got a transfer yesterday. Micah Potter from Ohio State has pledged to the Badgers and will enroll next semester.
I'm assuming the whole 2 years in conference thing is gone? The Luke Reckert drama from years past comes to mind, and didn't Bo Ryan block a kid going to Iowa from just sitting out 1 year or something?
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The latest bracketology has 10 B1G teams in the tournament with another in the "next four out". By seed:
- #1 Michigan
- #2 Michigan State
- #3 Wisconsin
- #4 Ohio State
- #5 Nebraska, Indiana
- #6 Purdue
- #8 Iowa, Maryland
- #11 (last four in / play-in game) Minnesota
- Next four out, Northwestern
In starting to compile our tier-based projection spreadsheet I noticed that Michigan has an EXTREMELY favorable B1G schedule. The three road games that they do NOT play this year are all against tier-2 teams that could plausibly beat them. So that got me thinking, could the Wolverines be the first team since Indiana in 1976 to go all the way undefeated?
The Wolverines are currently 10-0 with three remaining OOC games. According to the worldwide leader they have at least a 96.5% chance of winning each of their remaining OOC games so they should obviously get back into conference play in January at 13-0. Then, as mentioned above, they do not have to travel to Columbus, Lincoln, or West Lafayette so their only projected conference losses would be in Madison and East Lansing. If they can manage to win those two and avoid upsets they would head into the B1G Tournament in Chicago at 20-0/31-0.
Assuming that Michigan wins the road games in Madison and East Lansing and all the other games go as projected (I know they won't, but just for entertainment), the B1G Tournament seedings would be:
- 20-0 Michigan
- 15-5 Nebraska
- 14-6 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
- 14-6 Wisconsin
- 13-7 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker over PU based on record against UMD)
- 13-7 Purdue
- 12-8 Indiana
- 11-9 Maryland
- 7-13 Northwestern
- 6-14 Penn State
- 5-15 Iowa
- 4-16 Rutgers (wins tiebreaker over MN based on record against NU)
- 4-16 Minnesota
- 2-18 Illinois
Thus, Michigan's B1G Tournament match-ups would be:
Friday, March 15:
The Wolverines would play the #8/9 winner of Maryland/Northwestern at 12:30 on BTN.
Saturday, March 16:
Assuming that they won on Friday, the Wolverines would play the winner of Friday's game between Wisconsin and the MSU/RU/MN winner at 1pm on CBS.
Sunday, March 17:
Assuming they won on Saturday, the Wolverines would play in the CG against UNL/tOSU/PU/IU/PSU/IA/IL at 3:30 on CBS.
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So we decided to leave Nebraska and MInnesota where they were, and leave that an upset. I was on the fence on both and made them 2/5, but I think they could easily be 3/4, and Minnesota's home win over the Huskers already would verify that.
I didn't consider that to be a decision. I considered these tiers to be very much tentative and I was looking for thoughts/comments before I move on with setting up the whole thing.
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Thoughts on tiers:
A few questions:
In the past our tier-based projections have been based on the theory that a team would lose road games against teams in their tier and the two tiers below. Ie, on a 26 game double-round-robin schedule Michigan would go 19-7 with road losses to the five tier-2 schools and the two tier-3 schools. Similarly, all of the tier-2 schools would go 16-10 with road losses to the tier-1 school, the other tier-2 schools, the tier-3 schools, and the three tier-4 schools. The last few years home court seems to be less important so I'm thinking we should switch to just the adjacent tiers. Ie, on a 26 game double-round robin schedule Michigan would go 21-5 with road losses to the five tier-2 schools. Similarly, the tier-2 schools would go 19-7 with road losses to the tier-1 school, the other tier-2 schools, and the tier-3 schools.
Do we have consensus on tiers:
- Michigan
- MSU, UW, tOSU, UNL, PU
- UMD, IU
- IA, PSU, NU
- MN, RU
- IL
no.. UNL is not in the 2nd tier. They will drop more games like Minn.
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I'm assuming the whole 2 years in conference thing is gone? The Luke Reckert drama from years past comes to mind, and didn't Bo Ryan block a kid going to Iowa from just sitting out 1 year or something?
Bo initially did, but backed off. Everything is different now, of course. I don't think blocking is allowed anymore. Potter will have to sit for a year (not eligible for play until 2020) unless UW wins an appeal to make him eligible from the start of next season.
The hiccup here is that he attended classes in Columbus this fall. Apparently the NCAA frowns on this whole class thing, which is not surprising given how they treated North Carolina and all that.
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Bo initially did, but backed off. Everything is different now, of course. I don't think blocking is allowed anymore. Potter will have to sit for a year (not eligible for play until 2020) unless UW wins an appeal to make him eligible from the start of next season.
The hiccup here is that he attended classes in Columbus this fall. Apparently the NCAA frowns on this whole class thing, which is not surprising given how they treated North Carolina and all that.
I bet he gets that waiver. They hand those out like candy when it’s just one semester, especially if he didn’t play.
Also, as you said, no blocking. That was not Bo’s best moment.
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Bo initially did, but backed off. Everything is different now, of course. I don't think blocking is allowed anymore. Potter will have to sit for a year (not eligible for play until 2020) unless UW wins an appeal to make him eligible from the start of next season.
The hiccup here is that he attended classes in Columbus this fall. Apparently the NCAA frowns on this whole class thing, which is not surprising given how they treated North Carolina and all that.
Since he didn't play, I have to imagine he'd get that waiver. Granted MSU seems to get them with greater ease than just about anyone somehow.
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How favorable/unfavorable are Michigan's/Purdue's schedules? It is fairly extreme:
Michigan:
If you look at the way I have it set up for now (looks like it will be changing) we project that Michigan would go 21-5 in a double-round-robin. On average, a team projected go to 21-5 should miss 4.84 wins and 1.15 losses. Michigan misses an "extra" 1.85 losses. Even missing four wins and two losses would be strongly favorable but missing three wins and only three losses moves Michigan's projected final winning percentage up from an already lofty 0.808 to a stratospheric 0.900.
Purdue:
We project that Purdue would go 19-7 in a double-round-robin. On average, a team projected to go 19-7 should miss 4.38 wins and 1.61 losses. Purdue misses an extra 1.62 wins. That knocks their projected final winning percentage down from 0.731 to only 0.650.
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On the subject of tiers in general, tier-2 Nebraska lost on the road to tier-5 Minnesota. It has been suggested that we move Nebraska down to tier-3 and Minnesota up to tier-4. That would eliminate the Nebraska/Minnesota upset. Are there any objections?
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I'm thinking to hold off a little while longer. Let the non-conference play out and then develop the tiers in full by the start of conference play (the real start).
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The rest of the games played so far:
- Tier-1 Michigan beat Tier-2 Purdue at home, ok
- Tier-1 Michigan beat Tier-4 Northwestern on the road, ok
- Tier-2 Ohio State beat Tier-4/5 Minnesota at home, ok
- Tier-2 Ohio State beat Tier-6 Illinois at a neutral site, ok
- Tier-2/3 Nebraska beat Tier-6 Illinois at home, ok
- Tier-2 Michigan State beat Tier-5 Rutgers on the road, ok
- Tier-2 Michigan State beat Tier-4 Iowa at home, ok
- Tier-2 Purdue beat Tier-3 Maryland at home, ok
- Tier-2 Wisconsin beat Tier-3 Iowa on the road, ok
- Tier-2 Wisconsin beat Tier-5 Rutgers at home, ok
- Tier-3 Indiana beat Tier-4 Northwestern at home, ok
- Tier-3 Indiana beat Tier-4 Penn State on the road, UPSET
- Tier-3 Maryland beat Tier-4 Penn State at home, ok
So moving Nebraska to tier-3 and Minnesota to tier-4 leaves us with just one upset, IU over PSU at PSU. I didn't watch it but it looks like it was reasonably close with Indiana winning by just two points so we should more-than-likely just let that ride as an upset.
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I'm thinking to hold off a little while longer. Let the non-conference play out and then develop the tiers in full by the start of conference play (the real start).
Are there any games left that tell us anything? I thought teams were just coasting at this point until NYD.
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Are there any games left that tell us anything? I thought teams were just coasting at this point until NYD.
Are we completely convinced that Illinois is bad enough to warrant their own tier at the bottom. I realize that their record is bad but most of their losses aren't THAT bad. I admit up front that I haven't watched five minutes of Illinois basketball this year so I'm asking for thoughts not being argumentative. Thoughts?
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Maybe not. KenPom has the whole conference in the top 56, then Illinois and Rutgers down at 103 and 107. So maybe 5 tiers, with them together at the bottom. Neither of them looks awful.
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Are there any games left that tell us anything? I thought teams were just coasting at this point until NYD.
Actually, there are quite a few decent/good games left on the docket.
https://bigten.org/confschedule.aspx/2018-19/mbb?path=mbball
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Massey composite rankings (39 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Duke (1)
- MICHIGAN (3)
- Gonzaga (2)
- Kansas (4)
- MICHIGAN STATE (10)
- Virginia (5)
- Tennessee (12)
- Nevada (7)
- Auburn (6)
- North Carolina (11)
- OHIO STATE (14)
- Virginia Tech (9)
- Texas Tech (8)
- WISCONSIN (13)
- NEBRASKA (15)
- Florida State (16)
- Buffalo (18)
- Cincinnati (20)
- Oklahoma (24)
- PURDUE (17)
- INDIANA (-)
- Villanova (23)
- Houston (-)
- Mississippi State (-)
- Louisville (-)
- 26. Maryland (25)
- 37. Iowa (34)
- 45. Northwestern (54)
- 48. Penn State (47)
- 57. Minnesota (63)
- 86. Rutgers (70)
- 111. Illinois (105)
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Tell you what, I'm rooting for a lot of chalk Wednesday and Thursday, because that could set up for a really awesome weekend at the Big Ten tourney. Have we ever gone this strong 1-8? And that's excluding Iowa who is as dangerous as anyone offensively.
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Penn temporarily ends Villanova's Big 5 dominance. Villanova isn't very good this year, but this Penn team is fun to watch. Ton of motion of offense.
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Penn is legitimately decent. They already beat Miami (FL) and only lost to Kansas State and Oregon State on neutral site games. Barring further upsets they should get a 13/14 seed to have a chance to make an upset run, especially if they at least split at Toledo, New Mexico, Saint Joseph's, and Temple.
Yes, Villanova is/was overrated, and North Carolina probably still is, too (we'll see when they face Gonzaga before their ACC schedule), but I see Michigan at 16-4 in the BigTen (@MSU / IA / WIS / IND being the toughest games... as I said before, missing @NEB / OSU / PUR is fortunate), which should still be good enough for a 1/2 seed even if they lose on Saturday in the BigTen Tournament.
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With Michigan's defense beginning to slowly come back to earth, I wonder if their rankings will begin to overvalue them. Massey is Massey, but that's what prompts this post.
To me this is a #4 or #5 team nationally. Lots of talk of them ("if the season ended today") being a 1-seed without discussion, and I think that's too much. They're on that fringe (and I'd probably put them ahead of Tennessee and/or UVa) but clearly behind Kansas/Gonzaga/Duke to me.
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Time will tell.... The Norfolk State and Holy Cross games still weigh down the offense in Kenpom somewhat (though #17 is nothing to complain about), but South Carolina certainly certainly exposed some defensive weaknesses, and even after that Kenpom still ranks Michigan's defense #1. I think the practice time and easy remaining non-con games will help ensure the defense is ready for anything (though of course I thought the same thing with the football team after the Indiana game, and clearly that didn't happen, but I have more confidence in Yaklich than Brown, with all due respect to him).... Again, time will tell....
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Brad Davison has denied that he hit Joey Hauser intentionally the other night in Milwaukee. In his first chance at an interview, he, as well as his teammates and Coach Gard, are saying it was a bang-bang play and the contact was incidental. This, and given that Davison and Hauser have known each other since birth, I believe him.
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It is my intention that this will be the last update until we have updated consensus tiers in early January. At this point our tiers are:
- Michigan
- Wisconsin, MSU, tOSU, PU
- UNL, IU, UMD
- MN, NU, IA, PSU
- RU, IL
So far there has been one upset, IU's win at PSU.
Projected final standings/B1G Tournament seeds:
- 18-2 Michigan
- 15-5 Wisconsin
- 14-6 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker over tOSU based on record against Michigan)
- 14-6 Ohio State
- 13-7 Purdue
- 12-8 Indiana (wins H2H tiebreaker over UNL, no game in Lincoln)
- 12-8 Nebraska
- 10-10 Maryland
- 7-13 Minnesota
- 6-14 Iowa (wins tiebreaker over NU based on record against the 12-8 teams)
- 6-14 Northwestern
- 5-15 Penn State
- 4-16 Illinois (wins H2H tiebreaker over RU, no game in Picastaway)
- 4-16 Rutgers
B1G Tournament match-ups at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Rutgers, 3pm on BTN
- #12 Penn State vs #13 Illinois, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14:
- #5 Purdue vs NU/RU, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Indiana vs PSU/IL, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Nebraska vs #10 Iowa, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Maryland vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan vs UMD/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Wisconsin vs UNL/IA, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Michigan State vs IU/PSU/IL, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Ohio State vs PU/NU/RU, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- M/UMD/MN vs tOSU/PU/NU/RU, 1pm on CBS
- UW/UNL/IA vs MSU/IU/PSU/IL, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- M/UMD/MN/tOSU/PU/NU/RU vs UW/UNL/IA/MSU/IU/PSU/IL, 3:30pm on CBS
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It is my intention that this will be the last update until we have updated consensus tiers in early January.
Have you ever tracked the accuracy of the initial tiers vs what we end up with as the season progresses?
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Have you ever tracked the accuracy of the initial tiers vs what we end up with as the season progresses?
Here comes the mother of spreadsheets.
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Here comes the mother of spreadsheets.
LoL.
To answer Bwar's question, no and it would be nearly impossible. I don't keep a record of the old tiers like I do with the Power Rankings in football.
FWIW: To me this isn't about ranking who is best or seeing how it changes, this is about making reasonable projections and reasonable interpretations of results. For example, consider Ohio State and Purdue. Based on our tiers, we consider them to be roughly equivalent (both tier-2) but we project that PU will finish 13-7 while tOSU will finish 14-6. The one-game difference is purely schedule. Purdue's missed road games are against Illinois, Rutgers, and Iowa. Those are three of the worst teams in the league so Purdue doesn't catch a break there. Ohio State, by contrast, does not have to travel to Madison to play the Badgers so the Buckeyes do catch a slight break.
It is worse part-way through the season. Even though we consider the Boilermakers and Buckeyes to be roughly equivalent, the Buckeyes are 2-0 while Purdue is 1-1. If projections hold, it will get worse. Purdue is expected to lose again on January 8 (@MSU), January 11 (@UW), and January 23 (@tOSU) while we do not project any Buckeye losses until January 26 (@UNL).
If those projections hold then as of January 25 the Buckeyes will have a MUCH better record than the Boilermakers AND a H2H win. Optimistic Buckeye fans and pessimistic Boilermaker fans might think that Ohio State is VASTLY better than Purdue. The purpose of this exercise, IMHO, is largely to be a reality check on that sort of thing. If all of these projections hold (they won't) then I'll be the one pointing out that the Buckeyes don't have a much better record and a H2H win because they are a much better team but rather because they played an easier schedule and hosted the H2H game.
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Understood... FYI part of the reason is that I posted about this (https://www.hammerandrails.com/2018/12/13/18139661/b1g-basketball-tier-system) at the Purdue blog in order to both discuss it and to try to highlight this forum.
I think a lot of the folks over there don't particularly think Purdue is a tier-2 team right now, and one of the comments was asking about historical accuracy. I think the question came from a place of "do these guys have a track record of fitting teams into the right tier early."
From the standpoint of my own memory, I think we've been pretty solid, unless you have a team that ends up doing well or badly completely out of nowhere.
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Here comes the mother of spreadsheets.
FWIW:
The basketball projections spreadsheet is already the mother of spreadsheets. It is so complex that I had to build in a double-check feature to catch mistakes so I actually project records two ways:
- Mathematically: I start with the record that we would project on a 26-game double-round-robin then subtract the six games not played then adjust for upsets to get a projected final conference record.
- Game-by-game: For this one I enter ALL 140 B1G games into the spreadsheet along with a projected result (or actual result once the game has been played) then I have the spreadsheet set up to add up the W's and L's and calculate a separate projected final conference record.
Then I have another column that checks the two projected records for each team against each other to make sure that they match.
The good thing is that I set this up years ago and each year I just update for the new schedule so I don't have to rebuild it from scratch. I do still have to enter the 140 games and projections for each.
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Understood... FYI part of the reason is that I posted about this (https://www.hammerandrails.com/2018/12/13/18139661/b1g-basketball-tier-system) at the Purdue blog in order to both discuss it and to try to highlight this forum.
I think a lot of the folks over there don't particularly think Purdue is a tier-2 team right now, and one of the comments was asking about historical accuracy. I think the question came from a place of "do these guys have a track record of fitting teams into the right tier early."
From the standpoint of my own memory, I think we've been pretty solid, unless you have a team that ends up doing well or badly completely out of nowhere.
I've shared this on the Ohio State BB forum before and I never got much traction there.
I don't have any idea on historical accuracy because I don't track it but I usually don't make a whole lot of moves during the year (thankfully because moving a team up or down a tier is a major PITA, see above post about what the spreadsheet entails). That said, a one-tier movement is a fairly big deal.
- Moving Purdue down to tier-3 would change their projected 26-game double-round-robin record from 19-7 to 14-12.
- If they were moved down to tier-3 the six games they miss would change from a projected 6-0 (in tier-2) to 4-2.
- Thus, the net change would be from 13-7 in tier-2 (19-7 minus 6-0) to 10-10 in tier-3 (14-12 minus 4-2).
That three game difference is a pretty big deal because it would be the difference between Purdue getting to Indy comfortably in the NCAA and just playing for seed vs Purdue getting to Indy probably needing to at least make it to the weekend.
It would also be a big difference in seed in the B1G Tournament. At 13-7 I project them to be a #5 seed in Indy playing the 11/14 winner on Thursday and then #4 on Friday. At 10-10 they would project to be tied with Maryland for 7/8 so they would have a tougher Thursday game against #9 or #10 AND a MUCH tougher Friday game against #1 or #2.
All-in-all, there is a substantial difference between probably playing Ohio State on Friday for seed only in a game that would be close to a pick-em as compared to playing Michigan on Friday in a "must-win" situation.
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Thanks... I'm personally not convinced Purdue is tier-2.
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Wisconsin scored 69 in a half. I think they've gone back to back games without scoring 69 combined before.
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Do you have your household budget down on a master spreadsheet back to the ....90s?
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I added in the OOC games using the worldwide leader's "matchup predictor" to project results and here is what I have for projected final standings:
Team | Conf-W | Conf-L | ProjT-W | ProjT-L |
M | 18 | 2 | 29 | 2 |
UW | 15 | 5 | 24 | 7 |
MSU | 14 | 6 | 23 | 8 |
tOSU | 14 | 6 | 24 | 7 |
Purdue | 13 | 7 | 21 | 10 |
UNL | 12 | 8 | 22 | 9 |
IU | 12 | 8 | 20 | 11 |
UMD | 10 | 10 | 20 | 11 |
Minny | 7 | 13 | 17 | 14 |
NU | 6 | 14 | 16 | 15 |
Iowa | 6 | 14 | 17 | 14 |
PSU | 5 | 15 | 12 | 19 |
RU | 4 | 16 | 11 | 19 |
ILL | 4 | 16 | 9 | 22 |
My thoughts on tournament berths if these projections all came to pass:
M, UW, MSU, and tOSU would all be clearly in. IL, RU, PSU, IA, and NU would all be clearly out unless they won the B1G Tournament. That leaves:
Purdue 13-7/21-10:
I think the Boilermakers would be in, but they would want to avoid a bad loss. Their opening game in Chicago would be on Thursday against the RU/NU winner and losing that could be problematic. They would probably still be in, but it would be close with a loss there.
Nebraska 12-8/22-9:
Like the Boilermakers, the Cornhuskers would probably be in but they would want to avoid a bad loss. Their opening game in Chicago would be on Thursday against Iowa and losing that could be problematic. They would probably still be in, but it would be close with a loss there.
Indiana 12-8/20-11:
Like the two teams listed above, the Hoosiers would probably be in but they would want to avoid a bad loss. Their opening game in Chicago would be on Thursday against the PSU/IL winner and losing that could be problematic. They would probably still be in, but it would be close with a loss there.
Maryland 10-10/20-11:
I think that they would need one win in Chicago. Their opener would be against Minnesota and I don't think they could afford a loss there. A win there would get them into a game against Michigan and they could probably afford a loss to Michigan with a final record including BTT games of 11-11/21-12.
Minnesota 7-13/17-14:
I think the Gophers would need to win the BTT. Their best case scenario short of that would be to:
- Upset Maryland on Thursday
- Pull off a major upset of Michigan on Friday
- Upset tOSU on Saturday (this could be PU or even NU or RU but MN's best case would be tOSU)
- Lose a close game to Wisconsin in the CG (this could be UNL, IA, MSU, IU, PSU, or IL but MN's best case would be UW)
In that case, including their 3-1 BTT run the Gophers would finish 10-14/20-15. That *MIGHT* get them in because the wins over UMD and tOSU would help and obviously the win over Michigan would be a "signature win" but that record is still weak overall.
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Purdue 13-7/21-10:
I think the Boilermakers would be in, but they would want to avoid a bad loss. Their opening game in Chicago would be on Thursday against the RU/NU winner and losing that could be problematic. They would probably still be in, but it would be close with a loss there.
If Purdue makes it to 13-7 I won't be worried. None of the OOC losses even approached being a "bad loss" and the wins needed to get to 13-7 in conference would necessarily give us victories over some pretty solid teams. I think the selection committee would see that we scheduled VERY tough OOC, and although we didn't win, we put up a fight. Beyond that, to get to 13-7 in conference would show growth as a team. I don't know the extent to which they look at "last 10 games" any more, but I think they'd recognize that Purdue came into the season as a young/inexperienced team and finished strong to get to 13-7. And regarding the "bad loss", if we took a bad loss but STILL managed 13-7, it probably means we beat a pretty stout B1G team on their home court that our own projections show today as a loss.
Now, I'm not sure we can get to 13-7. I think we might be right on that cusp of tier 2 and tier 3, which means that we might be splitting the difference between the projected 13-7 and the projected 10-10.
If we're 11-9 (19-12), I think we have some serious work to do in the BTT-getting to Saturday at least. If we're 12-8 (20-11), I think we at minimum have to win our first BTT game.
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Wisconsin scored 69 in a half. I think they've gone back to back games without scoring 69 combined before.
They were playing a team whose last four opponents (or something like that) averaged 109. That's some bad defense. Really bad defense.
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If Purdue makes it to 13-7 I won't be worried. None of the OOC losses even approached being a "bad loss" and the wins needed to get to 13-7 in conference would necessarily give us victories over some pretty solid teams. I think the selection committee would see that we scheduled VERY tough OOC, and although we didn't win, we put up a fight. Beyond that, to get to 13-7 in conference would show growth as a team. I don't know the extent to which they look at "last 10 games" any more, but I think they'd recognize that Purdue came into the season as a young/inexperienced team and finished strong to get to 13-7. And regarding the "bad loss", if we took a bad loss but STILL managed 13-7, it probably means we beat a pretty stout B1G team on their home court that our own projections show today as a loss.
Now, I'm not sure we can get to 13-7. I think we might be right on that cusp of tier 2 and tier 3, which means that we might be splitting the difference between the projected 13-7 and the projected 10-10.
If we're 11-9 (19-12), I think we have some serious work to do in the BTT-getting to Saturday at least. If we're 12-8 (20-11), I think we at minimum have to win our first BTT game.
I think they'd be fine at 13-7, my only concern would be the potential bad loss on Thursday.
If it matters, that "last 10 games" thing should help PU. Without looking it up I think we are projecting them to start something like 4-4 which means we are projecting them to finish 9-3 to end up 13-7. That front-loaded schedule should help Purdue's "growth as a team" argument even though it has more to do with random quirks of scheduling than "growth". It looks better to start 4-4 and finish 9-3 than to start 9-3 and finish 4-4. The same is true even if you adjust that down to 3-5/8-4 looking better than 8-4/3-5.
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I think they'd be fine at 13-7, my only concern would be the potential bad loss on Thursday.
If it matters, that "last 10 games" thing should help PU. Without looking it up I think we are projecting them to start something like 4-4 which means we are projecting them to finish 9-3 to end up 13-7. That front-loaded schedule should help Purdue's "growth as a team" argument even though it has more to do with random quirks of scheduling than "growth". It looks better to start 4-4 and finish 9-3 than to start 9-3 and finish 4-4. The same is true even if you adjust that down to 3-5/8-4 looking better than 8-4/3-5.
Agreed that the front-loaded schedule helps the "last 10 games" argument... The problem is that I'd rather face some of those tougher teams after the team has completed that "growth as a team" phase lol...
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DuesbFQWkAAOL2_.jpg)
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Big Ten not looking great. I'm assuming UM and Purdue will pull it out against overmatched opponents in the end, like OSU did, but Illinois, of all teams, is the only team playing well so far.
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Big Ten not looking great. I'm assuming UM and Purdue will pull it out against overmatched opponents in the end, like OSU did, but Illinois, of all teams, is the only team playing well so far.
Purdue playing like dog feces.
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Purdue playing like dog feces.
I think Purdue just is dog feces this year, surrounding the best player in the Big Ten.
Reminds me a lot of 2007 MSU with Edwards playing the role of Drew Neitzel. He's good enough, and there should be enough talent somewhere on that roster that they are capable of pulling an upset, but night in and night out it's him and a lot of nothing.
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And there is Purdue's [first] bad loss.
Hard to imagine that this team is still Tier 2 in the B1G.
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Michigan played awful on offense today and not great on defense, either. Too many forced shots in particular. Brazdeikis had by far his worst game, but fortunately Simpson hit 3 threes.
Western Michigan is the lowest-rated MAC team, but they did look better than expected to be fair, so I think they'll do okay in their league, especially if they learn how to reduce their turnovers.
Still no playing time for Johns or DeJulius, but hopefully they can play better against Air Force and/or Binghamton to get them in.
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Weird game for OSU. A game of runs, where OSU choir a 12 point lead, then gave up a 24-4 run, then they went back up by 10, then gave up a run at the end to make it close.
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Looks like MSU avoided the finals hangover that hit the rest of the conference yesterday
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Nick Ward is 20 for 20 over his last two home games.
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Some unexpected close calls, a bad game for Purdue, and a nice win for Indiana this weekend.
In setting up the tier spreadsheet I used the worldwide leader's estimated chances of winning to get a baseline for estimating OOC records. Here are this weekend's games along with what happened:
- Michigan had a 96.6% chance to beat WMU: won by 8
- MSU had a 95.3% chance to beat GB: won by 21
- Ohio State had a 91.4% chance to beat Bucknell: won by 2
- Iowa had an 85.8% chance to beat UNI: won by 23
- Nebraska had a 78.9% chance to beat OkSU: won by 23
- Purdue had a 68.8% chance to beat Notre Dame: lost by 8
- Illinois had a 63.5% chance to beat ETSU: won by 18
- Indiana had a 47.6% chance to beat Butler: won by 3
- Rutgers had a 28.5% chance to beat Seton Hall: lost by 6
- Penn State had a 26.3% chance to beat NCST: lost by 11
So by my count:
- Overperformed: Illinois, Indiana
- Performed roughly as expected: MSU, Iowa, Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State
- Underperformed: Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue
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Hard to imagine that this team is still Tier 2 in the B1G.
Per earlier posts, moving them down to tier-3 would change their projected final standings from the current projection of 20-11/13-7 to 17-14/10-10. The potential games in which that would make a difference:
- vs Michigan (not on the schedule)
- at Iowa (not on the schedule)
- at Penn State 1/31
- at Minnesota 3/5
- at Northwestern 3/9
It may take a while before we can make a determination on this. Purdue's last two OOC games (vs Ohio, vs Belmont) will not tell us much unless the Boilermakers lose which they obviously shouldn't. Then their first four conference games in January are two that should be easy wins (for a tier-2 or tier-3 team) and two that should be losses either way. As either a tier-2 or a tier-3 team they should:
- win the two remaining OOC games
- beat Iowa at home on 1/3
- lose in East Lansing on 1/8
- lose in Madison on 1/11
- beat Rutgers at home on 1/15
- beat Indiana at home on 1/19
- lose in Columbus on 1/23
- beat MSU at home on 1/27
The thing that might make Purdue extra hard to read is that if @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) is right and they are the best player in the B1G (Edwards) and nothing around him, that sounds like a recipe for inconsistency. One player can really take over a BB game so if Edwards is hot they might win in East Lansing or Madison. OTOH, if he isn't they could lose to Rutgers or Iowa. If they do one or the other that is an easy adjustment (or no adjustment needed) but if they do both, then what?
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Well, I think we'll need to look at them qualitatively in those games regarding how they play, and quantitatively with respect to score differential, more than just looking at W/L.
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Well, I think we'll need to look at them qualitatively in those games regarding how they play, and quantitatively with respect to score differential, more than just looking at W/L.
I agree. Some of that is OOC and I agree with you, Purdue looks like they are on the Tier-2/Tier-3 border. We aren't going to learn anything from their remaining OOC games against Ohio and Belmont. Once we get to conference play:
- Iowa at home on 1/3: This should be a pretty easy win for a tier-2 team, closer but still a win for tier-3.
- MSU on the road on 1/8: This should be a competitive loss for a tier-2 team, less competitive for tier-3.
- UW on the road on 1/11: This should be a competitive loss for a tier-2 team, less competitive for tier-3.
- RU at home on 1/15: This should be a blowout win for tier-2, somewhat closer for tier-3.
- IU at home on 1/19: This should be a competitive win for tier-2, a close win for tier-3.
- tOSU on the road on 1/23: This should be a competitive loss for a tier-2 team, less competitive for tier-3.
- MSU at home on 1/27: This should be a competitive win for a tier-2 team, a close win for tier-3.
As we get 3, 4, 5 games into the season we can compare and see how Purdue is doing relative to expectations. You are right, it isn't just about W's and L's. If the Boilermakers go 2-2 in the first four they could be either tier-2 or tier-3:
- With blowout losses in East Lansing and Madison and last second wins at home over Iowa and RU, move down to tier-3.
- With blowout wins at home over Iowa and RU and last second losses in East Lansing and Madison, stay in tier-2.
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The coaches should be ashamed
https://twitter.com/RMoses10/status/1074082771168083973?s=19
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Massey composite rankings (46 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Duke (1)
- MICHIGAN (2)
- Kansas (4)
- Virginia (6)
- MICHIGAN STATE (5)
- Tennessee (7)
- Gonzaga (3)
- Nevada (8)
- North Carolina (10)
- Texas Tech (13)
- Auburn (9)
- Virginia Tech (12)
- WISCONSIN (14)
- NEBRASKA (15)
- OHIO STATE (11)
- Florida State (16)
- Buffalo (17)
- Oklahoma (19)
- Mississippi State (24)
- Cincinnati (18)
- INDIANA (21)
- Houston (23)
- Louisville (25)
- TCU (24)
- NC State (25)
- 28. Maryland (26)
- 29. Iowa (37)
- 33. Purdue (20)
- 48. Northwestern (45)
- 56. Minnesota (57)
- 65. Penn State (48)
- 97. Rutgers (86)
- 106. Illinois (111)
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Massey composite rankings (46 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Duke (1)
- MICHIGAN (2)
- Kansas (4)
- Virginia (6)
- MICHIGAN STATE (5)
- Tennessee (7)
- Gonzaga (3)
- Nevada (8)
- North Carolina (10)
- Texas Tech (13)
- Auburn (9)
- Virginia Tech (12)
- WISCONSIN (14)
- NEBRASKA (15)
- OHIO STATE (11)
- Florida State (16)
- Buffalo (17)
- Oklahoma (19)
- Mississippi State (24)
- Cincinnati (18)
- INDIANA (21)
- Houston (23)
- Louisville (25)
- TCU (24)
- NC State (25)
- 28. Maryland (26)
- 29. Iowa (37)
- 33. Purdue (20)
- 48. Northwestern (45)
- 56. Minnesota (57)
- 65. Penn State (48)
- 97. Rutgers (86)
- 106. Illinois (111)
1. Michigan, MSU
2. UW, OSU, UNL, IU
3. Maryland, Iowa, Purdue
4. Northwestern, Minnesota, Penn State
5. Rutgers, Illinois
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1. Michigan, MSU
2. UW, OSU, UNL, IU
3. Maryland, Iowa, Purdue
4. Northwestern, Minnesota, Penn State
5. Rutgers, Illinois
FWIW:
I'm not going to change this and alter the projections for at least a few weeks.
That said, I'm glad to see someone else chiming in on tiers. I like to get consensus on it. @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) 's proposed changes (based on @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's composite rankings):
- MSU up to tier-1 (from tier-2)
- UNL up to tier-2 (from tier-3)
- IU up to tier-2 (from tier-3)
- Purdue down to tier-3 (from tier-2)
- Iowa up to tier-3 (from tier-4)
That is a whole lot of changes but there are good arguments for each of them. I want to let it ride for a bit and see how things go. If badge/ELA are right it will become apparent once the OOC ends and conference play resumes.
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I'm not really in love with IU in #2, in all honesty.
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I'm not really in love with IU in #2, in all honesty.
Ok, but is that because you don't WANT them to be there or because you don't THINK they should be there?
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OSU has won 27 of the last 28 games vs in state competition.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Duvn4wfUwAAfl7a.png)
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Bucks couldn't throw it in the ocean in the first half
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Ok, but is that because you don't WANT them to be there or because you don't THINK they should be there?
I don't think they should be there, but results say otherwise. It's weird.
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I'm not really in love with IU in #2, in all honesty.
Ok, I get that. The other thing to consider is that, per @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's rankings list, they are almost exactly half-way between the next higher ranked team (tOSU at #15 in tier-2) and the next lower ranked team (UMD at #28 in tier-3). That is a big contrast to the other three tier-2 teams which are all consecutive (UW #13, UNL #14, and tOSU #15) and the other three tier-3 teams (UMD #28, IA #29, and PU #33).
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The coaches should be ashamed
https://twitter.com/RMoses10/status/1074082771168083973?s=19
:a102:
Wow
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Bill Walton is mostly crazy, but he is adamant that it has to be coached at this point for how rampant it is. Hard to disagree
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agree with Walton. They're being coached to do it. Charge calls seem to be up so I'm guessing coaches are trying to take advantage of it.
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OSU has looked off a bit lately, hope they get right against a struggling UCLA team
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvDZvmAUcAEow-W.jpg)
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Michigan finally got back to playing good defense today. The offense struggled early in part because Air Force played some zone, but they finally hit more 3s in the second half. One lineup change I'd like to see at this point is to start Livers and give him more minutes over Brazdeikis, who I think isn't playing as well of late, because teams are putting him higher on the scouting report.
Admittedly, Air Force is not a good offensive team, and is especially turnover-prone, which showed today. One more bad non-con game against Binghamton next weekend....
Johns did get in early at center, but looked bad, which is disappointing. The rest of the backups got in late, and unfortunately DeJulius still doesn't look ready, either. Here's hoping they still improve in practice in case they're ever needed this year.
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OSU had some more trouble shooting. But man, for a team with multiple 5 star recruits, UCLA sucks
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OSU had some more trouble shooting. But man, for a team with multiple 5 star recruits, UCLA sucks
You spelled Maryland wrong.
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OSU had some more trouble shooting. But man, for a team with multiple 5 star recruits, UCLA sucks
Coaching matters. UCLA will be looking for one very soon, methinks.
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Only one more OOC game for UW, at Western Kentucky on the 29th. The Badgers should win that one.
I think they look ready for the Big Ten. The OOC schedule was really challenging and they managed it well. Damn Warriors be damned.
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Only one more OOC game for UW, at Western Kentucky on the 29th. The Badgers should win that one.
I think they look ready for the Big Ten. The OOC schedule was really challenging and them managed it well. Damn Warriors be damned.
We are just about done with the OOC without too many surprises. Here is what we have and what is left:
- Michigan is 10-0 with Binghamton left on Sunday.
- Ohio State is 9-1 with High Point left on Saturday.
- Indiana is 9-2 and done.
- Michigan State is 8-2 with NIU left on Saturday.
- Wisconsin is 8-2 with WKU left on Saturday.
- Minnesota is 9-1 with MtStMary's left on Sunday.
- Nebraska is 9-1 with SWMNST left on Saturday.
- Maryland is 8-2 with Radford left on Saturday.
- Purdue is 6-4 with Belmont left on Saturday.
- Iowa is 10-0 with Bryant left on Saturday.
- Northwestern is 8-2 with Columbia left on Sunday.
- Rutgers is 6-3 with Maine left on Saturday.
- Penn State is 6-4 with UMBC left on Saturday.
- Illinois is 4-6 with FAU left on Saturday.
Then all of our teams are off on Monday (NYE) and Tuesday (NYD) before we restart conference play with a pair of conference games Wednesday night and four more on Thursday night.
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Lots of tune-up games there. Blech.
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For review, the tiers currently are:
- Michigan
- Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
- Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland
- Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State
- Rutgers, Illinois
It has been suggested (by @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) ) that we:
- Move MSU up to tier-1, and
- Move Nebraska up to tier-2, and
- Move Indiana up to tier-2
- Move Purdue down to tier-3 (I know @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) agrees with this), and
- Move Iowa up to tier-3
I'm heading to Florida tomorrow and will be away from my pc (where I keep the tier-based projection spreadsheet) for about a week so I will not be updating this for at least that long. That said, please continue to discuss what the tiers should be. There hasn't been much input. @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) has put a list out there, I've put a list out there, @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) has put a list out there, and @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) has commented on his teams placement and I think that is about it. I like to have at least a general consensus before making moves so what does everyone think?
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Lots of tune-up games there. Blech.
Agreed, a LOT of garbage. As a conference we have 13 OOC games left to play and we should go 13-0. Anything worse than 12-1 would be embarrassing.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvmxMLoWkAAl9Ih.jpg)
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Northern Illinois' early 90s Bulls style jerseys are amazing.
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I didn't watch. Did anyone? What the hell happened to the Badgers today?!?
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Agreed, a LOT of garbage. As a conference we have 13 OOC games left to play and we should go 13-0. Anything worse than 12-1 would be embarrassing.
So yeah. Whoever scheduled a true road game against a low mid-major should be tarred and feathered.
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So yeah. Whoever scheduled a true road game against a low mid-major should be tarred and feathered.
Does UW have a player from there? That's why teams usually do it in basketball.
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Iowa tied up with 3-7 Bryant at home with 4 minutes to play
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Does UW have a player from there? That's why teams usually do it in basketball.
No. I remember now. The WKU AD demanded a hoops home game in exchange for a 1-off football game in Madison.
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I didn't watch. Did anyone? What the hell happened to the Badgers today?!?
.........
;)
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Coaching matters. UCLA will be looking for one very soon, methinks.
Lost at home by 15 to Liberty today. I'm thinking sooner.
Also Illinois lost at home to FAU to fall to 4-9. I know it's just Year 2, but it doesn't look to be trending right there either.
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Was oSu (Underwood) mentioned in that FBI thing? That might not end well anyway.
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.........
;)
Dead serious. Started watching the playoff and then the wife and I went out for sushi. I had forgotten UW was even playing last night.
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Was oSu (Underwood) mentioned in that FBI thing? That might not end well anyway.
I believe one of his assistants was.
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The first 30 minutes were ugly with so many missed shots between the charge circle and the 3 point line (ie. medium to long 2s) while Binghamton did better than expected on offense, exacerbated by hitting some tough shots, similar to the Western Michigan game..... Michigan finally focused on getting to the rim in the final 10 minutes and got a big lead that way (not sure why it took so long to figure that out).... Binghamton isn't good, but they probably played their best and also gave Notre Dame a decent challenge, so overall I'm not too concerned.
That said, this game will hopefully convince Beilein to play Livers more. Opposing teams are figuring out how to stop Brazdeikis (who had a bad game except for the 3s he made) and are baiting Matthews into taking bad shots. Davis and Johns aren't ready for backup center minutes, so Livers needs to play there, too. I'd also like to see more 3 guard lineups (Simpson, Brooks, and Poole) when the opposing team is / goes small.
Fortunately, Penn State is next this week to restart BigTen play. Getting back to 2 games per week should help the team be more focused, too.
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Lost at home by 15 to Liberty today. I'm thinking sooner.
Also Illinois lost at home to FAU to fall to 4-9. I know it's just Year 2, but it doesn't look to be trending right there either.
And yup, Alford fired.
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I'm more than a little skeptical of Michigan's #2 ranking. Michigan is good but they will drop some games in Big Ten play.
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Massey composite rankings (47 rankings), with two weeks ago in parenthesis...
- Duke (1)
- Gonzaga (7)
- Virginia (4)
- Kansas (3)
- MICHIGAN (2)
- MICHIGAN STATE (5)
- Tennessee (6)
- Nevada (8)
- Texas Tech (10)
- Auburn (11)
- Virginia Tech (12)
- North Carolina (9)
- NEBRASKA (14)
- Oklahoma (18)
- Florida State (16)
- OHIO STATE (15)
- Kentucky (-)
- Mississippi State (19)
- WISCONSIN (13)
- TCU (24)
- Houston (22)
- Marquette (-)
- NC State (25)
- INDIANA (21)
- Cincinnati (20)
- 29. Purdue (33)
- 34. Maryland (28)
- 38. Iowa (29)
- 52. Minnesota (56)
- 53. Northwestern (48)
- 66. Penn State (65)
- 108. Rutgers (97)
- 131. Illinois (106)
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Josh Langford in a walking boot. Out at least tonight, seeing a specialist tomorrow. Not good. Particularly with OSU in three days, coming off a bye week themselves.
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As boring as Big Ten basketball was last year, this year should be really fun.
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Not for me.
~???
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Not for me.
~???
I meant as far as being a neutral fan, the interest in games at your team isn't playing in. Yes, your own team's games are going to be super stressful. To be honest, I don't know what's more stressful; being at home, knowingknow can't afford a home slip up, or on the road, knowing you are probably going to lose.
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I meant as far as being a neutral fan, the interest in games at your team isn't playing in. Yes, your own team's games are going to be super stressful. To be honest, I don't know what's more stressful; being at home, knowingknow can't afford a home slip up, or on the road, knowing you are probably going to lose.
I watched some of the nitrous oxide that is Michigan State, and I won't worry about the refs, I promise. I'll be more worried we don't lose by 30 again and get run out of the gym.
Michigan is like UVA. The defense is methodical and their offense is efficient.
Haven't seen much of Ohio State yet, but they appear to fall in line with Michigan, but they always have long athletes.
Maybe we can win some on the road, but after the Purdue game, and the lack of development over the years with Turgeon, I have a hard time seeing a NCAA bid.
We need shooters. Huerter would be nice right about now.
And then I saw Fernando slap the floor, and I almost lost my drink.
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Nebraska was Nebraska last night. Missed free throws on the road... losing a 2nd half lead on the road...
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Yeesh, 14 points in a half for Wisconsin.
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It was encouraging to see Michigan win without too much trouble without Livers, who apparently had some back pain, but Beilein didn't sound too concerned about it in his post-game interview. Davis actually played okay tonight, and Johns didn't do anything stupid in his limited minutes.
The offense was off in the first half but came through in the second half, while the defense was pretty good throughout. Penn State is a good defensive team, so that's encouraging, as well.
Indiana is next, of course, and I think Michigan matches up pretty well with them, but we'll see....
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Yeesh, 14 points in a half for Wisconsin.
WTH was that?? Yesterday was my birthday so we were out and about and I wake up this morning to this crap? Man, I feel a whole lot different about this team than I did a month ago. They looked ready then. I'll have to read up on what happened last night. Ugh.
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1. First time since the 1972-73 that there Gophers have FB and BB wins in Madison in the same school year. On top of that, the Gophers won playing Wisconsin's style of basketball.
2. Brad Davison is a punk.
3. The fact that he is starting is not an endorsement of Wisconsin basketball.
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Davison may find himself sitting a game for the latest one. Not sure Delany and Gard are going to look the other way like the ACC and K did with Grayson Allen.
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Davison may find himself sitting a game for the latest one. Not sure Delany and Gard are going to look the other way like the ACC and K did with Grayson Allen.
For the floor slap?
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Couldn't it be that the real story is not that Wisconsin is bad, but that Minnesota is damned good?
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Davison may find himself sitting a game for the latest one. Not sure Delany and Gard are going to look the other way like the ACC and K did with Grayson Allen.
What happened?
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Badgers have been starting slow all year. Now its starting to catch up to them.
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Purdue looked downright dangerous against Iowa last night. Granted, Iowa was without Garza, and their defense isn't very good overall this year. But it looks like Purdue might be putting it together. It wasn't just "Carsen + 4 guys" out there. It was a team.
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Purdue looked downright dangerous against Iowa last night. Granted, Iowa was without Garza, and their defense isn't very good overall this year. But it looks like Purdue might be putting it together. It wasn't just "Carsen + 4 guys" out there. It was a team.
I didn't see the game but I was going to ask about this in reference to tiers. Maybe PU is ok in tier-2?
What about Wisconsin? The last two games (loss to WKU, home loss to MN) could be a blip but if they are a larger indication then the Badgers may not belong in tier-2.
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I didn't see the game but I was going to ask about this in reference to tiers. Maybe PU is ok in tier-2?
What about Wisconsin? The last two games (loss to WKU, home loss to MN) could be a blip but if they are a larger indication then the Badgers may not belong in tier-2.
Can't speak to Wisconsin, as I haven't really watched them.
Purdue is still an enigma. I can understand the losses to pretty much everyone except Notre Dame. The other 4 losses were to Kenpom 5, 8, 17, and 29, all either on the road or a neutral court. Notre Dame (68 in Kenpom), however, was the bad loss, where the team just looked completely out of it and disjointed. But perhaps that's just an artifact of the Crossroads Classic, which has been a house of horrors for Purdue ever since they started it.
After the Notre Dame game, Purdue has played Ohio, Belmont, and Iowa. All respectable opponents, with Ohio being ~165 in Kenpom, Belmont barely inside the top-100, and Iowa at 44. All three were comfortable wins.
So for now, the Notre Dame loss looks like a little of an aberration. And the team does look like they're putting things together.
Obviously I still think we need to take a closer look over the next few weeks. I'm not expecting much @MSU, but @Wisconsin is looking far more winnable than you'd think. If Purdue either beats Wisconsin at home, or at the very least looks really good in a loss, I think tier-2 is justifiable.
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For the floor slap?
For the intentional trip.
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For the intentional trip.
I see nothing on the social medias of this?
I see a trip from last year. Not last night. We’re talking about the jump into thing?
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I see nothing on the social medias of this?
I see a trip from last year. Not last night. We’re talking about the jump into thing?
Yes, he jumped into a guy, injured him, then whined himself into a T for not getting a call.
But yes, the intentional trip I saw on social media I missed was just a replay from when he tripped a guy last year, recycled. My mistake
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Big OSU-MSU game today. OSU has seemed to struggle recently with generating offense and hitting open shots. Need to work that out to have a shot. Wesson-Ward should be fun though.
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This was where MSUs whole season shifted last year
Rolled into Columbus and the Bucks slapped them around.
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Brad Davison is a great kid. Grew up, up the road from us, and was universally liked and respected by opponents and teammates. However, some of his antics have him bordering on the Grayson Allen track. The trip, the nut punch, getting a T for arguing a non-charge call on an obvious flop. He’s as competitive of a kid as I’ve seen and I would want him my team, but he needs some tough love before he falls into the Grayson abyss.
Wisconsin has very little talent that can self create on the offensive end. Happ is great but is dependent on others to get points. And now the jury is out, that if he gets close to the hoop, hammer him. Missing out on Poole and a few other athletic slashers the last couple years is hurting Gard right now.
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How much are the Spartans favored by?
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How much are the Spartans favored by?
Last I saw was 2.5. I'll say OSU wins by 1
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Langford still out. I think we can compensate offensively, but he's our best perimeter defender. That's the bigger loss.
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So FOX using the NBA on NBC theme thr college basketball now? Weird.
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Not sure either of these teams are awake yet. This is awful basketball.
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What's with those MSU uniforms? 🤢
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Brad Davison is a great kid. Grew up, up the road from us, and was universally liked and respected by opponents and teammates. However, some of his antics have him bordering on the Grayson Allen track. The trip, the nut punch, getting a T for arguing a non-charge call on an obvious flop. He’s as competitive of a kid as I’ve seen and I would want him my team, but he needs some tough love before he falls into the Grayson abyss.
Wisconsin has very little talent that can self create on the offensive end. Happ is great but is dependent on others to get points. And now the jury is out, that if he gets close to the hoop, hammer him. Missing out on Poole and a few other athletic slashers the last couple years is hurting Gard right now.
Kid needs to cut down on the BS, that much is clear.
I feel like his game has to come together a little more. He doesn’t yet seem comfortable in that quasi-2guard role.
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Not sure either of these teams are awake yet. This is awful basketball.
At first it was looking like a Sparty football game, but they seem to be rounding into form. I don't think OSU can sustain enough offense to stay in it though.
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Did OSU just get called for a foul for going over the back of their own guy?
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Did OSU just get called for a foul for going over the back of their own guy?
Gotta respect the box out
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At first it was looking like a Sparty football game, but they seem to be rounding into form. I don't think OSU can sustain enough offense to stay in it though.
Without Langford I'm not convinced MSU has enough offense, but more critically, they are giving OSUs guards too many good looks.
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MSU FT shooting is an embarrassment
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Without Langford I'm not convinced MSU has enough offense, but more critically, they are giving OSUs guards too many good looks.
This would be bigger if OSU's guards could shoot straight
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That might have been the awkwardest fast break three I've ever seen
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Yeah MSUs backcourt is burned. You can see one team coming off a bye week, and the other on short rest down their starting shooting guard. Honestly I'd rather them not continue to try to play Winston and McQuaid extra minutes, just chalk this one up as a loss, and don't let them be too tired to play Purdue on short rest on Tuesday. Road wins are always stolen, so you can't afford to let this cost you a home win.
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36 points is fine. Figured defense was going to take a hit, but good Lord. Giving up 43? Wide open looks almost every possession. Unguarded threes, uncovered back doors. Garbage defense.
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Wesson and Ward are as advertised
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I'm not sure OSU has had to shoot a contested three yet
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Ouch
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Have to separate ball from man, Day would take that guy as a DB right now.
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Wesson scoring like Karl Malone, passing like my 3 year old son, yet we still aren't doubling and forcing him to find the open man. He looks exactly like Nick Ward last year.
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Refs calling all kinds of weak sauce in this second half. Lame way for Wesson to pick up a 4th
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Refs calling all kinds of weak sauce in this second half. Lame way for Wesson to pick up a 4th
I know, it's so annoying - the teams are battling, and are physical, and then the refs call some weird foul on barely any contact
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That's where NBA officials run circles around college officials, they know the contact that creates advantage, and what to let go. Two guys bump going for a rebound, they call that on Wesson? Then a guy gets hip checked down on a drive and they let it go?
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Up 5, Wesson picks up #4, and instead of pushing it out of reach, you let OSU answer with a 7-2 run.
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And more wide open threes. Unreal how terrible the perimeter defense is without Langford. MSUs best defense has been OSU missing wide open threes
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Refs had made this half unwatchable. Looking forward to a free throw contest between the backups who haven't fouled out to settle this.
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Bucks just a bit too bad at shooting to be a contender
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MSU just a little too much for the Buckeyes.
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I remember telling my Dad I really liked Jim Jackson as an 8 year old, and he nearly put me up for adoption
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Villanova is lucky the Big East sucks. They'd be like the 11th best team in the Big Ten
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Sounds like the soonest Langford might be back is two weeks
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So I missed the OSU/MSU game looks like the bucks were in it till about 3 minutes left in the game. The two teams up north may be the top 2 seeds in the B1G
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Yikes, what has happened to Northwestern since that tourney bid? Collins going from heir apparent at Duke to hot seat in Evanston?
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Once again, Michigan starts strong against a ranked team, though the early fouls by Morgan and Langford certainly helped. The second half was a little disappointing, but they maintained a decent lead the whole way.
The biggest development is that Johns was very good defensively with significant minutes with Livers out and also had some good plays on the offensive end, too. It didn't matter whether he was at forward or center. If his offense develops, I think he'll play some more even when everyone is healthy and nobody is in foul trouble. DeJulius also looked okay in limited minutes behind Simpson.
With @Illinois and Northwestern next, hopefully the team will stay focused and play to its potential, especially if Livers remains out. After the past few non-con games, though, I know better than to expect that.
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Looking at the results this weekend and what @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) proposed a while back and the Massey composite rankings that @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) shared on 1/2, I propose the following updated tiers:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue
- Maryland, Iowa
- Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State
- Rutgers, Illinois
Please get your thoughts on these tiers in ASAP because I would like to update the projections accordingly.
Upsets so far:
- 12/4 IU won at Penn State: With the adjustments proposed above this will no longer be an upset
- 1/3 MN won at UW: This was a BIG upset and would be an upset even if we moved MN up and UW down a combined three tiers.
- 1/5 MSU won at tOSU: This will still be an upset even if we move MSU up to tier-1 (because a tier-2 team should win a home game against a tier-1 team but it is closer and the game was close so that seems about right).
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I would put Purdue on Tier 3 for now, maybe Indiana too. The Hoosiers play like an AAU team. They are going to continue to be less than the sum of their parts all season.
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I would put Purdue on Tier 3 for now, maybe Indiana too. The Hoosiers play like an AAU team. They are going to continue to be less than the sum of their parts all season.
I wasn't sure where to draw the cut-line between tier-2 and tier-3. I kept IU and PU above the line because I felt like PU looked good in their win over Iowa and that IU looked good in their competitive loss in Ann Arbor.
I'll defer to the group if their is group consensus. Other thoughts?
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Nebraska will be tier 4 soon
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MN feels "under-tiered"
Their computer ratings fall much more in line with Tier's 2 & 3. No outside the conference marquee wins, but the Wisconsin win plus their computer status may elevate them. The Maryland game tomorrow will be a good data point.
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Nice to see Michigan win comfortably with some adversity. Livers out, plus foul trouble for a handful. Johns should take most of the Davis minutes. Davis's time should be shrunk to 3-6 minutes a game in situations where there isn't an athletic big he is lined up across from, and to spell Teske and Johns a bit. Brandon Johns time last night was very valuable for development. 8 pts, 8 rebounds in 12 or so minutes against a strong opponent is a big win.
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MN feels "under-tiered"
Their computer ratings fall much more in line with Tier's 2 & 3. No outside the conference marquee wins, but the Wisconsin win plus their computer status may elevate them. The Maryland game tomorrow will be a good data point.
I think you might be right, but I don't think we should make that move just yet.
When @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) posted the composite computer rankings last week there was a substantial gap between the bottom of tier-3 (Iowa at #38) and the top of tier-4 (MN at #52). Obviously Minnesota's win in Madison will improve their ranking but, at least for now, I'd like to treat that as an upset and take a wait-and-see approach.
I agree with you that the Maryland game tomorrow will be a good data point. Minnesota is hosting Maryland and we would project the Gophers to win regardless of whether they are in tier-3 or tier-4 because Maryland is in tier-3. Obviously, if Minnesota loses it simply cancels out their upset win. As a tier-4 team they should basically barely win. If they run Maryland out of the gym . . .
After that the Gophers host Rutgers which should be a pretty easy win either way. Then they travel to Illinois. This will be a key data point because a tier-3 team should win in Champaign while a tier-4 team should lose in Champaign.
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Nebraska will be tier 4 soon
KenPom (16) and Sagarin (11) don't agree that Nebraska should be tier-4 BTW. It's important to see their record in context... 11-4, but with the 31st strongest SoS in the country per KenPom. That SoS helps to buoy Wisconsin (15th in KenPom w/ 4 losses, 17th hardest SoS), and Purdue (17th in KenPom w/ 5 losses, 10th-hardest SoS).
Per Iowa/Minnesota, it is clear from the computer rankings that their gap has lessened. KenPom has Iowa 43, Minnesota 48, Northwestern 51. Sagarin has Iowa 50, Minnesota 49, Northwestern 52. Quantitatively, it seems to me that it would justify moving Iowa down, not moving Minnesota up. Penn State is around 60 in both computer rankings as well.
KenPom and Sagarin diverge on both Indiana and Wisconsin. KenPom has Indiana at 27, Sagarin 16. KenPom has Wisconsin at 15, Sagarin 26.
I do think tier 2 looks a little cluttered. I personally am not sure a lot of those teams in tier 2 would be favored to beat Michigan or MSU at home, which suggests a few of them are overweighted. However, I think it's too early in the season to truly understand which teams should be dropped into tier 3 with Maryland.
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Wisconsin’s road bounce back was good to see. Put a good offensive day on a very good defense, even with Happ missing a lot of 2-footers.
I went into that game hoping, “Just don’t put me in a bad mood,” and it did not.
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KenPom (16) and Sagarin (11) don't agree that Nebraska should be tier-4 BTW. It's important to see their record in context... 11-4, but with the 31st strongest SoS in the country per KenPom. That SoS helps to buoy Wisconsin (15th in KenPom w/ 4 losses, 17th hardest SoS), and Purdue (17th in KenPom w/ 5 losses, 10th-hardest SoS).
In my proposed tiers I had Nebraska in tier-2 not tier-4.
Per Iowa/Minnesota, it is clear from the computer rankings that their gap has lessened. KenPom has Iowa 43, Minnesota 48, Northwestern 51. Sagarin has Iowa 50, Minnesota 49, Northwestern 52. Quantitatively, it seems to me that it would justify moving Iowa down, not moving Minnesota up. Penn State is around 60 in both computer rankings as well.
I get that, but like I said in response to @HailHailMSP (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1629) , I would prefer to take a wait-and-see approach unless there is broad consensus that we should move Minnesota up (or alternatively Iowa down) now.
I do think tier 2 looks a little cluttered. I personally am not sure a lot of those teams in tier 2 would be favored to beat Michigan or MSU at home, which suggests a few of them are overweighted. However, I think it's too early in the season to truly understand which teams should be dropped into tier 3 with Maryland.
I also thought that tier-2 looked a little cluttered as soon as I wrote up my proposal but I'm not sure what to do about it just yet.
One thought I had was that after Ohio State lost at home to MSU and Wisconsin lost at home to Minnesota, maybe we should have a blank tier-2 in between the Michigan Schools (at tier-1) and the current tier-2 teams (at new tier-3). The gap might be that big. Much like the Minnesota discussion, I think we should take a wait-and-see approach on this. Of the proposed (by me) tier-2 teams, their home games against the tier-1 schools:
- Ohio State lost at home to MSU and does not host M so they will finish the season 0-1.
- Nebraska does not host Michigan and hasn't hosted MSU yet (1/17).
- Wisconsin hosts both but hasn't hosted either yet (M 1/19 and MSU 2/12).
- Indiana hosts both but hasn't hosted either yet (M 1/25, MSU 3/2).
- Purdue does not host Michigan and hasn't hosted MSU yet (1/27).
So far the tier-1 teams are 1-0 on the road against tier-2 teams (MSU>tOSU). The remaining games of that type chronologically are:
- MSU at UNL, 1/17
- M at UW, 1/19
- M at IU, 1/25
- MSU at PU, 1/27
- MSU at UW, 2/12
- MSU at IU, 3/2
For now we need to be cognizant of the possibility that Ohio State's home loss to MSU could be either:
- Just one of those things that happens, or
- A problem with Ohio State specifically rather than tier-2 generally.
However, over the course of January we may discover that Nebraska, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Purdue aren't capable of winning home games against tier-1 teams either. In that case, we need a blank tier to separate them.
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FYI I had replied to @Entropy (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1559) who suggested that Nebraska was going to be tier-4. Suspect it was similar to my own statements earlier that Purdue was playing like a tier-3 team; i.e. as fans we are more negative about our own faults than our opponents'.
Beyond that, I agree with everything else you posted, @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) -- I think it's too early to make a call on Iowa or Minnesota, and too early to truly determine the tier 1 and tier 2 areas. Not enough sample size just yet.
We should know more in about 2 weeks IMHO.
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Ok, I have now updated. For the time being we are using these tiers:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- Indiana, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Purdue, Ohio State
- Maryland, Iowa
- Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State
- Illinois, Rutgers
Based on those tiers we have had four upsets so far:
- UW over Iowa in Iowa City on 11/30
- MN over UNL in Minneapolis on 12/5
- MN over UW in Madison on 1/3
- MSU over tOSU in Columbus on 1/5
Wisconsin has one upset each way so they effectively cancel out. MSU has one up while IA, UNL, and tOSU each have one down. The one that may need adjusted is Minnesota which now has two positive upsets. Their win over Wisconsin would be an upset almost no matter what but their home win over Nebraska would not be an upset if we either moved them up or Nebraska down.
New projected final standings/seeds in the BTT in Chicago, IL:
- 17-3 Michigan
- 15-5 Indiana (wins tiebreaker over MSU based on record against Wisconsin)
- 15-5 Michigan State
- 14-6 Wisconsin
- 13-7 Purdue (wins tiebreaker over Nebraska based on record against IU/MSU)
- 13-7 Nebraska
- 12-8 Ohio State
- 10-10 Maryland
- 8-12 Iowa
- 7-13 Minnesota
- 5-15 Northwestern
- 4-16 Penn State (wins tiebreaker over Illinois based on record against Maryland)
- 4-16 Illinois
- 3-17 Rutgers
Thus, the match-ups at the BTT in the United Center in Chicago Illinois would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Rutgers, 9pm, BTN
- #12 Penn State vs #13 Illinois, 6:30pm, BTN
Thursday, March 14:
- #5 Purdue vs NU/RU, 3pm, BTN
- #6 Nebraska vs PSU/IL, 9:30pm, BTN
- #7 Ohio State vs #10 Minnesota, 7pm, BTN
- #8 Maryland vs #9 Iowa, 12:30pm, BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan vs UMD/IA, 12:30pm, BTN
- #2 Indiana vs tOSU/MN, 7pm, BTN
- #3 Michigan State vs UNL/PSU/IL, 9:30pm, BTN
- #4 Wisconsin vs PU/NU/RU, 3pm, BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- M/UMD/IA vs UW/PU/NU/RU, 1pm, CBS
- IU/tOSU/MN vs MSU/UNL/PSU/IL, 3:30pm, CBS
Sunday, March 17 B1G Championship Game:
- M/UMD/IA/UW/PU/NU/RU vs IU/tOSU/MN/MSU/UNL/PSU/IL, 3:30pm, CBS
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Lol, how easy is Michigan's schedule that on the same tier, and already +1, while UM is even, that UM is still projected 2 games better?
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Explanation of tiebreakers:
First we project both Michigan State and Indiana to finish 15-5.
- The first tiebreaker is H2H. The teams play twice (H&H) so we project each team to win one.
- The second tiebreaker is record against the best team or teams in the league. That is 17-3 Michigan but both teams are projected to go 1-1 against the Wolverines.
- The next tiebreaker is record against the next best team or teams in the league. That is 14-6 Wisconsin. Each team plays Wisconsin only once but Indiana gets the Badgers in Bloomington while the Spartans have to travel to Madison. Thus, we project that MSU will go 0-1 while IU will go 1-0 and consequently IU wins the tiebreaker and gets the #2 seed.
We project that both Nebraska and Purdue will go 13-7.
- The first tiebreaker is H2H. The teams play twice (H&H) so we project each team to win one.
- The second tiebreaker is record against the best team or teams in the league. That is 17-3 Michigan. Purdue already lost in Ann Arbor and does not host the Wolverines this year. Nebraska also does not host the Wolverines this year so we project both teams to finish 0-1.
- The next tiebreaker is record against the next best team or teams in the league. that is 15-5 MSU and IU. Purdue plays them twice each and is projected to go 2-2. Nebraska plays MSU twice but does not host Michigan so we project them to go 1-2 and consequently the tiebreaker goes to PU and they get the #5 seed.
We project that both Penn State and Illinois will go 4-16.
- The first tiebreaker is H2H. The teams play twice (H&H) so we project each team to win one.
- Next is record against Michigan but we project both to finish 0-season.
- Next is record against MSU/IU but we project both to finish 0-season.
- Next is record against Wisconsin but we project both to finish 0-season.
- Next is record against UNL/PU but we project both to finish 0-season.
- Next is record against tOSU but we project both to finish 0-season.
- Next is record against Maryland. We project PSU to go 1-1 against the Terps while the Illini go 0-1 so the Nittany Lions win the tiebreaker and get the #12 seed.
Either I can't find it, or the conference pulled the BB Tiebreaker from their website. The best I can find is this link to a post from 2015 on the BTN website (http://btn.com/big-ten-basketball-tiebreakers/). Unless someone can point me to something more current or more authoritative, I will assume for now that this is still controlling. The tiebreakers are:
- H2H
- Record against the best team or teams in the conference, then the next, then the next, etc.
- Record against all D1 opponents
- Coin toss
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Lol, how easy is Michigan's schedule that on the same tier, and already +1, while UM is even, that UM is still projected 2 games better?
I've commented on this before. It is flat out shocking how easy Michigan's schedule appears to be. The home games are somewhat irrelevant because both M and MSU (along with all five tier-2 teams are projected to win all of their home games anyway.
In road games, MSU misses Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern. We would project them to win all three anyway so they get no help whatsoever from the missed games. Michigan misses Nebraska, Ohio State, and Purdue which are ALL in tier-2 and consequently they get a HUMONGOUS boost in their projected final record from 20-6 or .769 on a double-round-robin to 17-3 or .850 on the existing 20-game schedule.
Ranking the schedules from most helpful to most detrimental:
- +.081 Michigan
- +.058 Indiana
- +.046 Illinois
- +.019 Minnesota
- +.019 Northwestern
- +.008 Wisconsin
- +.008 Nebraska
- EVEN Maryland
- -.004 Rutgers
- -.031 Penn State
- -.042 Purdue
- -.042 Ohio State
- -.050 Iowa
- -.069 Michigan State
The figures listed are the difference between the team's projected winning percentage on a 26-game double-round-robin schedule and their projected winning percentage on the existing 20-game schedule (before accounting for upsets). Examples:
- Michigan projects at .769 on a double-round-robin but .850 on the existing schedule, difference .081
- Maryland projects at .500 on a double-round-robin and also .500 on the existing schedule, no difference
- Michigan State projects at .769 on a double-round-robin (same as M) but .700 on the existing schedule, -.069
It really sucks for MSU because note that their projected seed is behind the two teams with the most favorable schedules (M, and IU).
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Ah, so Michigan is your Big Ten champs this year.
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Yeah, Purdue would be 18-8 against a double round robin, based on what I can tell from the post above. Projects to 13-7 against their actual schedule. They miss 5 projected wins and only 1 projected loss.
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Yeah, Purdue would be 18-8 against a double round robin, based on what I can tell from the post above. Projects to 13-7 against their actual schedule. They miss 5 projected wins and only 1 projected loss.
Exactly, here is the whole thing:
Team | noAway | noAway | noAway | noHome | noHome | noHome | RR-W | RR-L | miss-W | miss-L | Proj-W | Proj-L | RR% | Proj% | Diff | +Var | -Var | Var | Conf-W | Conf-L | OOC-W | OOC-L | ProjT-W | ProjT-L |
M | UNL | tOSU | PU | IL | IA | RU | 20 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 0.769 | 0.850 | 0.081 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 28 | 3 |
MSU | UMD | MN | NU | IL | PSU | UW | 20 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 0.769 | 0.700 | (0.069) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 24 | 7 |
IU | UNL | tOSU | UW | UMD | MN | PSU | 18 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 0.692 | 0.750 | 0.058 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 24 | 7 |
UW | MSU | PU | RU | IU | UNL | tOSU | 18 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 0.692 | 0.700 | 0.008 | 1 | (1) | 0 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 22 | 9 |
UNL | NU | tOSU | UW | IU | M | RU | 18 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 0.692 | 0.700 | 0.008 | 0 | (1) | (1) | 13 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 23 | 8 |
Purdue | IL | IA | RU | M | NU | UW | 18 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 0.692 | 0.650 | (0.042) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 11 |
tOSU | MN | PSU | UW | IU | M | UNL | 18 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 0.692 | 0.650 | (0.042) | 0 | (1) | (1) | 12 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 22 | 9 |
UMD | IL | IU | NU | IA | MSU | RU | 13 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0.500 | 0.500 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 19 | 12 |
Iowa | IL | UMD | M | MN | PSU | PU | 13 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0.500 | 0.450 | (0.050) | 0 | (1) | (1) | 8 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 19 | 12 |
Minny | IU | IA | PSU | MSU | NU | tOSU | 6 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0.231 | 0.250 | 0.019 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 17 | 14 |
NU | MN | PSU | PU | UMD | MSU | UNL | 6 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0.231 | 0.250 | 0.019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
PSU | IU | IA | MSU | MN | NU | tOSU | 6 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0.231 | 0.200 | (0.031) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 20 |
ILL | M | MSU | RU | IA | UMD | PU | 4 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 0.154 | 0.200 | 0.046 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 23 |
RU | UMD | M | UNL | IL | PU | UW | 4 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 0.154 | 0.150 | (0.004) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
Purdue, for example, on a 26-game double-round-robin would lose eight games:
- At M
- At MSU
- At IU
- At UW
- At UNL
- At tOSU
- At UMD
- At Iowa
They only miss one of those (@IA) and they miss five projected wins (vM, vNU, vUW, @IL, @RU) so their 18-8 gets reduced to 13-7.
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I admitted before the season that Michigan is fortunate to miss some tough away games (Ohio State, Purdue, Nebraska), but they also miss some easy home games (Rutgers, Illinois, Iowa being the road-only opponents), which I'm actually thankful for to keep the SOS higher.
Conversely, last year one could argue part of the reason they didn't win the BigTen is because they had all the other best teams on the road (MSU, OSU, NEB, UMD, PSU, PUR) while only playing some of the worst teams once at home (IND, MINN, RUT, ILL), while Purdue and Michigan State both had easier schedules.
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FYI I had replied to @Entropy (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1559) who suggested that Nebraska was going to be tier-4. Suspect it was similar to my own statements earlier that Purdue was playing like a tier-3 team; i.e. as fans we are more negative about our own faults than our opponents'.
My bad, I thought you were replying to my post.
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I admitted before the season that Michigan is fortunate to miss some tough away games (Ohio State, Purdue, Nebraska), but they also miss some easy home games (Rutgers, Illinois, Iowa being the road-only opponents), which I'm actually thankful for to keep the SOS higher.
Conversely, last year one could argue part of the reason they didn't win the BigTen is because they had all the other best teams on the road (MSU, OSU, NEB, UMD, PSU, PUR) while only playing some of the worst teams once at home (IND, MINN, RUT, ILL), while Purdue and Michigan State both had easier schedules.
FWIW:
My comments on conference schedule are not meant to pick on a team. I don't mean it like that at all. The conference schedules are made by the conference not the school so it isn't a schools "fault" that they have an easy schedule. I just lay out what it appears to be in terms of helpful/harmful.
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Massey composite rankings (48 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Duke (1)
- Virginia (3)
- Gonzaga (2)
- MICHIGAN STATE (6)
- Tennessee (7)
- MICHIGAN (5)
- North Carolina (12)
- Kansas (4)
- Virginia Tech (11)
- Texas Tech (9)
- Auburn (10)
- Nevada (8)
- Oklahoma (14)
- Mississippi State (18)
- Iowa State (-)
- Houston (21)
- NC State (23)
- Kentucky (17)
- OHIO STATE (16)
- Florida State (15)
- NEBRASKA (13)
- TCU (20)
- PURDUE (-)
- Buffalo (-)
- WISCONSIN (19)
- 26. Maryland (34)
- 27. Indiana (24)
- 40. Iowa (38)
- 41. Minnesota (52)
- 56. Northwestern (53)
- 70. Penn State (66)
- 116. Rutgers (108)
- 128. Illinois (131)
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Massey composite rankings (48 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- #4 MICHIGAN STATE (6)
- #6 MICHIGAN (5)
- #19 OHIO STATE (16)
- #21 NEBRASKA (13)
- #23 PURDUE (-)
- #25 WISCONSIN (19)
- 26. Maryland (34)
- 27. Indiana (24)
- 40. Iowa (38)
- 41. Minnesota (52)
- 56. Northwestern (53)
- 70. Penn State (66)
- 116. Rutgers (108)
- 128. Illinois (131)
The substantial gap between tier-1 (#4 and #6) and the top of tier-2 (#19) supports my earlier suggestion that we may need a blank "Tier-2" in between the Michigan Schools and everybody else. I don't want to make that change just yet but there are four games in January that I will be watching to make that determination:
- MSU at UNL, 1/17
- M at UW, 1/19
- M at IU, 1/25
- MSU at PU, 1/27
If the Michigan Schools go even 2-2 in those along with MSU already owning a win in Columbus then I think it will be time to insert a blank tier between them and everybody else.
Other than that the composite computer rankings seem to mostly mirror our current tiers with two exceptions:
- Per the composite computer rankings it appears that Maryland should move up to tier-2, and
- Per the composite computer rankings it appears that Minnesota should move up to tier-3.
Minnesota is already at +2 based on their home win over UNL and their road win over UW so I will make that move with the next update unless they lose a game they shouldn't in the next week or so.
Maryland I am less sure of. They are at Minnesota tonight and they should lose that either way. Then they host Indiana Friday and Wisconsin Monday. Those two home games are games that they should win either way so it is more about scores. Ie, if they get run out of the gym by Minnesota then barely beat IU and UW I think I'll leave them in tier-3. OTOH, if they barely lose to Minnesota and run IU and UW out of the gym then I'll move them up. The more likely scenario, of course, is something in between so we'll wait and see.
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https://twitter.com/MSU_Basketball/status/1082747453517033472?s=19
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Vegas has MSU as 7 point favorites over Purdue.
I would have thought it would be higher than that.
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Langford out again.
Ahrens looks like he should be good to go though.
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Purdue started really well...
...and then not so much.
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Both teams getting non stop second chance points
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Team clearly needs the long upcoming Tuesday-Sunday gap. Third game they've played since Purdues last game, and it's showing here big time second half. Purdue all over the offensive glass.
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I get the Bingham upside, but man, I really think Williams is going to be the best recruit out of MI next year. Purdue ain't a bad spot to go as a big
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Langford out again.
Ahrens looks like he should be good to go though.
Assuming he gets back to 100%, this Langford injury could be a blessing, the way Aaron Henry has blossomed defensively. To lose our best perimeter defender and not skip a beat, get him back, and I'll say this is MSUs best defensive team ever. Last year had freaky shot blocking ability, but wasn't built to defend the way most teams play now.
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Early B1G season KenPom
1. MSU (3)
2. UM (6)
3. Wisconsin (13)
4. Nebraska (16)
5. Purdue (17)
6. Maryland (20)
7. OSU (24)
8. Indiana (28)
9. Iowa (43)
10. NW (49)
11. Minnesota (58)
12. PSU (60)
13. Illinois (106)
14. Rutgers (115)
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Minnesota is already at +2 based on their home win over UNL and their road win over UW so I will make that move with the next update unless they lose a game they shouldn't in the next week or so.
Within a few hours of me typing that, Minnesota lost a home game to Maryland. Worse, it wasn't all that close. The game was competitive for about the first 30 minutes but after that the Terps pulled away and won by 15.
Minnesota has become the hardest team to slot into a tier. There have only been five "upsets" and the Gophers have been involved in three of them:
- On December 5 they won a home game over Nebraska. This would not be an "upset" if we moved Minnesota up to tier-3.
- On January 3 they won a road game over Wisconsin. In order to eliminate this "upset" we would have to move (Minnesota up / Wisconsin down) a combined four tiers.
- Last night (Jan 8) they lost a home game to Maryland. This would not be an upset if we moved Minnesota down or Maryland up.
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Within a few hours of me typing that, Minnesota lost a home game to Maryland. Worse, it wasn't all that close. The game was competitive for about the first 30 minutes but after that the Terps pulled away and won by 15.
Minnesota has become the hardest team to slot into a tier. There have only been five "upsets" and the Gophers have been involved in three of them:
- On December 5 they won a home game over Nebraska. This would not be an "upset" if we moved Minnesota up to tier-3.
- On January 3 they won a road game over Wisconsin. In order to eliminate this "upset" we would have to move (Minnesota up / Wisconsin down) a combined four tiers.
- Last night (Jan 8) they lost a home game to Maryland. This would not be an upset if we moved Minnesota down or Maryland up.
I think Maryland is also hard to slot because not only are they extremely young (such an overused cliche anymore), the young players have so much upside that the team is improving really quickly. For instance, Jalen Smith (true freshman 5-star recruit) wasn't a huge factor in November and December, but it looks like he's heading for double-double territory and his scoring has jagged up significantly as he learns the college game.
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I think Maryland is also hard to slot because not only are they extremely young (such an overused cliche anymore), the young players have so much upside that the team is improving really quickly. For instance, Jalen Smith (true freshman 5-star recruit) wasn't a huge factor in November and December, but it looks like he's heading for double-double territory and his scoring has jagged up significantly as he learns the college game.
Agree with the comments above. I think both are enigma's. They may each bite a tier 1 or tier 2 team, but also could blow a game against a Tier 4 team. We'll probably say the same about Nebraska at some point as well.
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I'm already saying it about UNL... they have one identity at home and another on the road.
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Assuming he gets back to 100%, this Langford injury could be a blessing, the way Aaron Henry has blossomed defensively. To lose our best perimeter defender and not skip a beat, get him back, and I'll say this is MSUs best defensive team ever. Last year had freaky shot blocking ability, but wasn't built to defend the way most teams play now.
It forces development and depth for stubborn coaches who wouldn't explore it otherwise. I think the same is true of Michigan with Livers, provided these back spasms can be sorted out. It has given Johns valuable minutes against really good competition.
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OSU down 1 at Rutgers at the break. They've had a number of bad first halves against bad teams.
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OSU down 1 at Rutgers at the break. They've had a number of bad first halves against bad teams.
This is true. Also they were ahead at halftime in both their losses. I'm not sure what to root for in the first half any more.
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Good for Rutgers
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sigh.
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Did MSU beat them twice?
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Not yet.
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No, it's been twice. But their next loss, Rutgers can get credit for? I never remember how it works.
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Something is seriously wrong with the Buckeyes, losing to Rutgers is inexcusable. Matta lost to Rutgers, that was his last game as coach. Actually, in thinking about that, let me ask a question:
In the time that Rutgers has been in the B1G, has any B1G BB team lost to Rutgers and retained their coach the next year?
The Buckeyes are now -2 in upsets so I'll be moving them down to tier-3 with the next update. I've re-calibrated my expectations so now I am hoping for an NIT bid.
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Something is seriously wrong with the Buckeyes, losing to Rutgers is inexcusable. Matta lost to Rutgers, that was his last game as coach. Actually, in thinking about that, let me ask a question:
In the time that Rutgers has been in the B1G, has any B1G BB team lost to Rutgers and retained their coach the next year?
The Buckeyes are now -2 in upsets so I'll be moving them down to tier-3 with the next update. I've re-calibrated my expectations so now I am hoping for an NIT bid.
The 2015 Wisconsin team that went 36-4 had two losses to Duke, one to Maryland, one to Rutgers.
Bo coaches another half year and then quit to get his friend a job.
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Both results last night were "upsets" according to our tiers so the projections are going to change. Northwestern's upset loss moves them down to a projected 4-16 while Rutger's upset win moves them up to a projected 4-16 so we now project a four way tie for 11-14th between those two, Penn State, and Illinois.
Iowa's upset win doesn't change much but Ohio State's upset loss moves them down into a projected tie with Maryland at 11-9 for 7th/8th and Ohio State would lose that tiebreaker. All of that is without actually moving the Buckeyes down a tier as I believe is now warranted.
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The 2015 Wisconsin team that went 36-4 had two losses to Duke, one to Maryland, one to Rutgers.
Bo coaches another half year and then quit to get his friend a job.
So they retained him part of the next year but not all of it ;)
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In the time that Rutgers has been in the B1G, has any B1G BB team lost to Rutgers and retained their coach the next year?
Ouch!
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I'm not going to knock around the Buckeyes. I have a pretty good idea of what they are, which is a solid team that doesn't really have any guys on the perimeter who are difference makers. Kaleb Wesson is very solid, but had two fouls in the first couple minutes last night, which limited his minutes and gave the Buckeyes very few options for scoring. Rutgers is legit good defensively, and they attacked the basket and made some shots last night (which is out of character for them). But any team that plays strong defense and makes shots can win a game. They'll have to forget about it quickly, because they go to Iowa Saturday.
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Langford out again Sunday, and Ahrens might be too. Very, very thin on the wing now.
It's also concerning that he is ruling Langford out earlier and earlier each game. We didn't know until Friday night that he'd be out Saturday against OSU, similar timeline against Purdue. Now Izzo is confident 3 days prior he won't be able to go Sunday? That part seems concerning.
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Evan Boudreaux out for Purdue tomorrow against Wisconsin, I'm hearing.
Time for Tre Williams to get some more minutes.
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As I kind of expected, it was closer than it should've been, but I was encouraged by the scoring balance with all the starters scoring 10+ and Livers at 9 in his return. Northwestern is next, which should be another win but will probably still be close given how the first game went and that Michigan only plays its best against other top teams. I'd like to be wrong, though.
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FWIW:
Both results last night were as projected so no changes. I think we'll plan to update tiers on Mondays. Please submit your thoughts over the weekend and/or on Monday and we'll go from there.
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As I kind of expected, it was closer than it should've been, but I was encouraged by the scoring balance with all the starters scoring 10+ and Livers at 9 in his return. Northwestern is next, which should be another win but will probably still be close given how the first game went and that Michigan only plays its best against other top teams. I'd like to be wrong, though.
No such thing as closer than it should be in conference road games.
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Re the tiers:
For review they currently are:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- Indiana, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Purdue, Ohio State
- Maryland, Iowa
- Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State
- Illinois, Rutgers
+/- Upsets:
- +1: Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota (+2,-1), Rutgers
- EVEN: Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin (+1,-1), Purdue, Iowa (+1,-1), Penn State, Illinois
- -1: Nebraska, Northwestern
- -2: Ohio State
At this point I definitely plan to move Ohio State to tier-3. That will move tOSU to -1 and MSU to even.
Pending this weekend's game all other teams are within +/-1 so that might be the only move. There was talk of moving Minnesota up but then they lost at home to Maryland. Maybe we should move Maryland up? Other suggestions?
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This weekend's games:
- Indiana at Maryland Fri at 7 on FS1
- Purdue at Wisconsin Fri at 9 on FS1
- Rutgers at Minnesota Sat at 12:30 on BTN
- Ohio State at Iowa Sat at 2:30 on BTN
- Michigan State at Penn State Sun at 4:30 on CBS
- Northwestern at Michigan Sun at 7:30 on BTN
With the exception of MSU@PSU where we expect the Spartans to get a road win, we project the home team to win all games.
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Are Friday night games new or am I having a memory lapse? I kind of like them, although they will drag down attendance in metropolitan areas...
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Even though MSU won and PSU lost, if both teams play like they did their last game, PSU wins
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Are Friday night games new or am I having a memory lapse? I kind of like them, although they will drag down attendance in metropolitan areas...
They definitely had them last year, can't remember if last year was first or second year of them though
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My plan for each team's tier on Monday's update:
- Michigan is tier-1 EVEN and playing a game they are projected to win (vNU) so they will be either Even or -1. They will stay in tier-1.
- Michigan State is tier-1 +1 and playing a game they are projected to win (@PSU) so they will be either Even or +1. They will stay in tier-1.
- Indiana is tier-2 EVEN and playing a game they are projected to lose (@UMD) so they will be either Even or +1. They will stay in tier-2.
- Wisconsin is tier-2 EVEN and playing a game they are projected to win (vPU) so they will be either Even or -1. They will stay in tier-2.
- Nebraska is tier-2 -1 and not playing this weekend. They will stay in tier-2.
- Purdue is tier-2 EVEN and playing a game they are projected to lose (@UW) so they will be either Even or +1. They will stay in tier-2.
- Ohio State is tier-2 -2 and playing a game they are projected to lose (@IA) so they will be either -1 or -2. If they are -2 they will move down to tier-3.
- Maryland is tier-3 +1 and playing a game they are projected to win (vIU) so they will be either Even or +1. They will stay in tier-3.
- Iowa is tier-3 EVEN and playing a game they are projected to win (vtOSU) so they will be either Even or -1. They will stay in tier-3.
- Minnesota is tier-4 +1 and playing a game they are projected to win (vRU) so they will be either Even or +1. They will stay in tier-4.
- Northwestern is tier-4 -1 and playing a game they are projected to lose (@M) so they will be either Even or -1. They will stay in tier-4.
- Penn State is tier-4 EVEN and playing a game they are projected to lose (vMSU) so they will be either Even or +1. They will stay in tier-4.
- Illinois is tier-5 EVEN and not playing this weekend. They will stay in tier-5.
- Rutgers is tier-5 +1 and playing a game they are projected to lose (@MN) so they will be either +1 or +2. If they are +2 we'll have to consider elevating them.
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Maryland played Purdue VERY tight at Purdue. I think we'll need to see how they play at Indiana.
If Maryland wins, I think there might be a case for moving Maryland up AND moving Indiana down. I don't think Indiana has quite impressed yet. Indiana barely beat NW at home, didn't really trounce Illinois at home, barely edged PSU on the road, and had a sizable loss to Michigan @ Michigan [to be expected].
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They look like an AAU team, clear talent but no basketball smarts. Weird, because I think Miller is a good coach, but they don't look like it.
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I think there's a fair chance that MSU is better than Michigan. Too early to tell, so I guess it's fair to give the benefit to the undefeated group. Still, though they seem to be bouncing back now that it's Big Tem time, that stretch versus the dregs (SCar, Air Force, and someone else I'm forgetting) was uninspiring and had me decelerating my optimism.
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The only top half team I've never seen is Wisconsin. I kind of have them positioned #3 in my mind by default. Happ is scarier than anyone IU brings.
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Former MSU coach Gus Ganakas, who coached prior to Jud, died at 92. Lived a good life, loved MSU, and retired young, before becoming an MSU broadcaster.
Oddly also means Izzo is the only living person to coach MSU basketball
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Purdue pulled out an OT win in Madison. It was a game that was weird from the UW side.
The Boilers went up early, stormed back, couldn’t take control, fell behind again, staged a crazy rally to force OT. Badgers had a late lead and it was tied until 38 seconds left, so Purdue kinda just made more plays at the end.
Some UW fans are apoplectic. I’m kinda just seeing it as a sign the conference is gonna be a bitch this year. Also, UW had turnover and defensive rebounding issues that seem fixable, but I also might be under crediting UW’s FT luck from Purdue (UW also had a not great night, even by its standards). Also caught the bounce back from a 7-31 night. Don’t like losing at home, but the team did some stuff I don’t expect from it well. On to the next.
(Also, that Purdue offense is a nightmare to hold back. It’s edwards, a hammer Big and three 6-6 guys who can shoot. Everything is guys popping out around screens, the big overwhelming and Edwards hitting crazy stuff. Did not enjoy facing it)
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So is Wisconsin in a little trouble? In a year where the conference is so deep you can't afford home losses, Badgers already have two. Have to admit, I thought they'd be a tourney team, but the level of bounce back that the preseason predictions were mostly seeing, I just didn't see it.
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Some UW fans are apoplectic. I’m kinda just seeing it as a sign the conference is gonna be a bitch this year. Also, UW had turnover and defensive rebounding issues that seem fixable, but I also might be under crediting UW’s FT luck from Purdue (UW also had a not great night, even by its standards). Also caught the bounce back from a 7-31 night. Don’t like losing at home, but the team did some stuff I don’t expect from it well. On to the next.
(Also, that Purdue offense is a nightmare to hold back. It’s edwards, a hammer Big and three 6-6 guys who can shoot. Everything is guys popping out around screens, the big overwhelming and Edwards hitting crazy stuff. Did not enjoy facing it)
Not sure why UW fans are apoplectic over this one... Yeah, it sucks to lose a home game, especially since Purdue's record doesn't *look* impressive to people who don't see how strong their SoS is... Currently #1 SoS in the nation according to KenPom. And while the final score @MSU was pretty terrible, the Purdue-MSU game was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Purdue was in it for about 32 minutes, but MSU pulled away strong in the end.
Really impressed with Tre Williams this week. He took on two very talented centers in Nick Ward and Ethan Happ, and at least held his own. Yes, Happ got a lot of points, but Tre got two blocks on him, generally hassled him quite a bit, and was able to score well himself. And Tre got a double-double against MSU, and was one point shy of it against UW. That kid is going to be GOOD. His athleticism for 280 lbs is impressive, and his court vision and passing instincts are astounding for a true frosh. When he gets his conditioning in order and loses a few more pounds, he'll be a terror.
Was really glad to see Purdue escape this one with a W. After losing a number of close neutral/road games early in the year, seeing this one fall away on the road might have hurt the team's confidence. Instead, they were tested repeatedly and managed to secure the W.
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Some ugly basketball in Iowa
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So is Wisconsin in a little trouble? In a year where the conference is so deep you can't afford home losses, Badgers already have two. Have to admit, I thought they'd be a tourney team, but the level of bounce back that the preseason predictions were mostly seeing, I just didn't see it.
At the moment, I don't think they're in trouble to not make the tournament. They're not making it easy though.
Right now they have some good wins, bad losses are at WKU and Minny at home. The conference schedule is a bad thing because it's hard, but good because it has a minimum of pitfalls. Kenpom has them only worse than a 3-point dog once. If they take a real bad run in games vs. comparable teams, could be dicy, but I'm gonna wait and see on that.
In each conference loss, they did something that's probably not going to happen often (stupid cold shooting vs Gophers, ridiculous turnovers vs. Purdue). I think they get things together enough to make it without much worry.
Now, they could always suddenly slip, but I need to see some actual bad losses. I think they could lose the next two, and I won't be too worried. That's weird to write, but the league is good enough, there could be a lot of leeway unless something catastrophic happens.
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Not sure why UW fans are apoplectic over this one... Yeah, it sucks to lose a home game, especially since Purdue's record doesn't *look* impressive to people who don't see how strong their SoS is... Currently #1 SoS in the nation according to KenPom. And while the final score @MSU was pretty terrible, the Purdue-MSU game was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Purdue was in it for about 32 minutes, but MSU pulled away strong in the end.
Really impressed with Tre Williams this week. He took on two very talented centers in Nick Ward and Ethan Happ, and at least held his own. Yes, Happ got a lot of points, but Tre got two blocks on him, generally hassled him quite a bit, and was able to score well himself. And Tre got a double-double against MSU, and was one point shy of it against UW. That kid is going to be GOOD. His athleticism for 280 lbs is impressive, and his court vision and passing instincts are astounding for a true frosh. When he gets his conditioning in order and loses a few more pounds, he'll be a terror.
Was really glad to see Purdue escape this one with a W. After losing a number of close neutral/road games early in the year, seeing this one fall away on the road might have hurt the team's confidence. Instead, they were tested repeatedly and managed to secure the W.
Some fans are apoplectic because they're idiots.
Also, I hope Williams gets a big head and goes pro. Reminds me a little of how I felt about Caleb Swanigan. Is pretty could, but holy hell he could be VERY good.
It felt like Purdue was due. As much shit a Painter has taken in spots, his team was in a classic "home team rallied back" spot and they stood tall, took the punch and struck back. UW should've been dead to rights late in regulation.
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Bucks lose third straight, and you can tell Holtmann is losing patience with his veterans. All four freshmen played a lot today.
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Bucks lose third straight, and you can tell Holtmann is losing patience with his veterans. All four freshmen played a lot today.
I think any team that loses to Rutgers automatically misses the tournament. I'm ready for Football season already.
MSU loss, no worries.
Rugers loss, hit the panic button.
Iowa loss, team is in a tailspin.
Hope Holtman can fix it, but seems to me like the season is over.
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Back from Cabo. A little quiet in here. And I'll echo BaB that some UW fans are idiots. This is a good team. Not great. Not bad. Just good.
Abnormal amount of turnovers (Happ has the most), weak on the glass, and crap at the FT line. The B1G is a rock-solid league this season. There are gonna be bumps and all that.
UW is a T3 team in my mind. 8 seed or so.
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Michigan finally played to its potential, again, on offense, with Teske and Simpson having arguably the best games of their careers. If they can keep improving their shooting, the offense can be as good as anyone's..... Matthews is struggling of late, which is kind of disappointing, and Brazdeikis isn't playing as well, either, but I think that teams will focus less on them to provide them more opportunities if Teske and Simpson keep playing well.
The defense was good but not great. Pardon dominated inside (though for some reason he took and missed several 3s) and Taylor played well for them, too. Law being out was unfortunate for them, or they'd have probably kept it close. They also got more fast break points than Michigan usually allows. I don't expect that to happen often, though, and part of it was just lack of focus because they had a big lead so early.
I'm not sure if it's a good or bad thing to have a bye this week before going to Madison. The Kohl Center doesn't look as daunting as usual, but it's definitely one of the toughest games left.
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Very enthused by how well MSU played down our two top wings. Every road win = gold.
I think it's 4 out of 5 on the road right now, so that's big.
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Back from Cabo. A little quiet in here.
welcome back
these guys could work a little harder to entertain
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some of us had jury duty, albeit for only 7 hours.
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Hopefully you wore a coat. Made from cloth.
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The only upset this weekend was Purdue's win at Wisconsin. I have moved Ohio State to tier-3 from tier-2 so the tiers are now:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, Nebraska
- Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa
- Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State
- Illinois, Rutgers
Based on the tiers, the upsets so far have been:
Date | Won | @/v | Lost |
30-Nov | UW | @ | IA |
5-Dec | MN | v | UNL |
3-Jan | MN | @ | UW |
8-Jan | UMD | @ | MN |
9-Jan | RU | v | tOSU |
9-Jan | IA | @ | NU |
11-Jan | PU | @ | UW |
So the net upsets for each team are:
- +1: Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota (+2, -1), Rutgers
- EVEN: Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Iowa (+1, -1), Penn State, Illinois
- -1: Wisconsin (+1, -2), Nebraska, Ohio State, Northwestern
The updated projected final standings and seeds for the BTT in Chicago from Wednesday, March 13 through Sunday, March 17 are:
- 17-3 Michigan
- 15-5 Indiana (wins tiebreaker over MSU based on record against Wisconsin and Nebraska)
- 15-5 Michigan State
- 14-6 Purdue
- 13-7 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over Wisconsin based on H2H, no game in Madison)
- 13-7 Wisconsin
- 11-9 Maryland
- 10-10 Ohio State
- 9-11 Iowa
- 6-14 Minnesota
- 5-15 Northwestern
- 4-16 Illinois (first in H2H2H with PSU and RU, 2-1)
- 4-16 Penn State (second in H2H2H with IL and RU, 2-2)
- 4-16 Rutgers
Thus, the match-ups in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Rutgers, 9pm BTN
- #12 Illinois vs #13 Penn State, 6:30pm BTN
Thursday, March 14:
- #5 Nebraska vs NU/RU 3pm BTN
- #6 Wisconsin vs IL/PSU, 9:30pm BTN
- #7 Maryland vs #10 Minnesota, 7pm BTN
- #8 Ohio State vs #9 Iowa, 12:30pm BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan vs tOSU/IA, 12:30 BTN
- #2 Indiana vs UMD/MN, 7pm BTN
- #3 Michigan State vs UW/IL/PSU, 9:30pm BTN
- #4 Purdue vs UNL/NU/RU, 3pm BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- M/tOSU/IA vs PU/UNL/NU/RU, 1pm CBS
- IU/UMD/MN vs MSU/UW/IL/PSU, 3:30pm CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- M/tOSU/IA/PU/UNL/NU/RU vs IU/UMD/MN/MSU/UW/IL/PSU, 3:30pm CBS
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Looking at likely bubble teams based on these projections:
Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Nebraska all project to finish at least 21-10 overall and at least 13-7 in conference. I think those six would all be locks.
Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Illinois, and Rutgers all project to finish 16-15 or worse overall and 6-14 or worse in conference. I think those five would need to win the BTT to get in.
That leaves three teams:
- 11-9/20-11 Maryland: The Terps' first game in the BTT would be against #10 Minnesota. They might get in even with a loss but I think they'd be sweating if they finished 11-10/20-12 with a bad loss as their last data point. With a win over Minnesota on Thursday, the Friday game against Indiana would be solely for seed.
- 10-10/20-11 Ohio State: The Buckeyes' first game in the BTT would be against the other bubble team, #9 Iowa. That game, IMHO, would be an elimination game. The loser would be out. If the Buckeyes beat Iowa on Thursday, they *MIGHT* be able to get in with a loss to Michigan on Friday but they would be sweating it. A win over Michigan on Friday would lock up a tournament berth for the Buckeyes.
- 9-11/20-11 Iowa: The Hawkeyes' first game in the BTT would be against Ohio State. That game, IMHO, would be an elimination game. The loser would be out. If the Hawkeyes beat Ohio State on Thursday, I think they would also need to beat Michigan on Friday to get in and even then they wouldn't be an absolute lock at 11-12/22-12. To safely lock up a berth the Hawkeyes would need to make it to the B1GCG by winning their semi-final against PU/UNL/NU/RU.
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By efficiency margin (gap between Offensive and Defensive PPP) this years MSU and UM are the two best Big Ten teams in the last four years.
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By efficiency margin (gap between Offensive and Defensive PPP) this years MSU and UM are the two best Big Ten teams in the last four years.
Are you suggesting that we should insert a blank tier between the two Michigan Schools and everyone else? Any other thoughts on tiers?
FWIW, tiers currently are:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- Indiana, Purdue+1, Wisconsin-1, Nebraska-1
- Maryland+1, Ohio State-1, Iowa
- Minnesota+1, Northwestern-1, Penn State
- Illinois, Rutgers+1
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Things are getting tenuous for the Buckeyes. A few weeks ago they peaked as high as #13 in the AP. Heading into the MSU game they were 12-1/2-0 and ranked #14. Now they are 12-4/2-3 and about to drop out of the AP Poll.
We do this tier thing in part to avoid overreacting to winning/losing streaks but as a tier-2 team which the Buckeyes were they should have gone 2-1 in their last three and even as a tier-3 team which they are now they should have gone 1-2.
My concern is that the Buckeyes could easily lose their next four games:
- vs Maryland (Friday): Maryland looks like a team that could definitely win in Columbus.
- vs Purdue (next Wednesday): Purdue recently won in Madison so they could definitely win in Columbus.
- at Nebraska (1/26): Road games are hard and Nebraska looks pretty good.
- at Michigan (1/29): One of the two toughest possible B1G games this year.
After that the Buckeyes host a Rutgers team that already beat them then a Penn State team that gave a much better Ohio State team fits last year.
If the Buckeyes are going to make the tournament they almost have to go at least 2-2 in the next four.
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- vs Maryland (Friday): Maryland looks like a team that could definitely win in Columbus.
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No way, the Terps are a mere tier 3 team!
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No way, the Terps are a mere tier 3 team!
Maybe lower.
Now that we're in the Top 25, it's a guaranteed loss tonight.
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No way, the Terps are a mere tier 3 team!
There is already a strong argument to move them up to tier-2. If they win their next two games they will move up.
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Are you suggesting that we should insert a blank tier between the two Michigan Schools and everyone else? Any other thoughts on tiers?
FWIW, tiers currently are:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- Indiana, Purdue+1, Wisconsin-1, Nebraska-1
- Maryland+1, Ohio State-1, Iowa
- Minnesota+1, Northwestern-1, Penn State
- Illinois, Rutgers+1
Let's see how they fare on the road. MSU has a decent, but less impressive than it was at the time, win in Columbus.l, and that's it. Michigan doesn't have anything even that good on the road.
I also imagine if Langford and Ahrens both continue to be out, the increased burden on the freshmen will start to show. I don't think I'd do a blank tier yet anyway, and if MSU is without it's top two wings, I certainly don't think there should be.
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Let's see how they fare on the road. MSU has a decent, but less impressive than it was at the time, win in Columbus.l, and that's it. Michigan doesn't have anything even that good on the road.
I also imagine if Langford and Ahrens both continue to be out, the increased burden on the freshmen will start to show. I don't think I'd do a blank tier yet anyway, and if MSU is without it's top two wings, I certainly don't think there should be.
Agreed, not yet but over the next two weeks we'll see four games that will made that determination:
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OK, now I'm more worried about UW.
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Maryland is really, really good though too.
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Maryland is really, really good though too.
Not convinced.
Best defense I've seen them play, but still look lost and the youth pushes too much.
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Nebraska w authority tonight on the road
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badgers turtles was over at the half, watching the Horns fight with the Jayhawks
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badgers turtles was over at the half, watching the Horns fight with the Jayhawks
It was . . . but then it wasn't. Weird game. The Terps jumped all over the Badgers and led 33-15 at halftime. Somehow Wisconsin managed to claw their way back and take a 60-59 lead with two minutes to play but then they got outscored 5-0 down the stretch and lost anyway.
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Duke could be sans point guard for the next 4-6 weeks. Huge loss for them. Not shedding any tears though.
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It was . . . but then it wasn't. Weird game. The Terps jumped all over the Badgers and led 33-15 at halftime. Somehow Wisconsin managed to claw their way back and take a 60-59 lead with two minutes to play but then they got outscored 5-0 down the stretch and lost anyway.
Wisconsin has some sharpshooters who poured in three-pointers for the last 7-8 minutes. Bruno also picked up four fouls. The Terps were lucky to escape with a win.
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Maryland is really, really good though too.
Nebraska's loss at Maryland is looking better and better...
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OK, now I'm more worried about UW.
I saw the first half and fell asleep (got the flu bug in Cabo...) only to wake up to them losing by 2. The slow starts are absolutely killing them. That has to stop, now.
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so, I missed a good Badger comeback
dern
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I saw the first half and fell asleep (got the flu bug in Cabo...) only to wake up to them losing by 2. The slow starts are absolutely killing them. That has to stop, now.
I went to bed mad at halftime. Mostly ok with that choice.
In theory, a team that can play like that, come back like that should eventually see the worm turn against some good teams, but man these missed chances.
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All darned season. Have to cure this. Seems like it's got to be in their heads...
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I think they need to get Iverson out of the starting lineup. I love the kid, but man, he just clogs up the offense because he can't shoot. Probably need to go with Kobe King in his place.
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Not convinced.
Best defense I've seen them play, but still look lost and the youth pushes too much.
FWIW, Lunardi's latest has Maryland as the 4 seed in a region with Virginia, Kansas and Nevada as the 1-2-3. Virginia is always going to Virginia in March, and I don't trust Kansas at all without Azubuike. Obviously it won't be the actual bracket, but if it was, my confidence in the Terps is so high right now, I'd pick them to the Final 4 with that region.
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I think they need to get Iverson out of the starting lineup. I love the kid, but man, he just clogs up the offense because he can't shoot. Probably need to go with Kobe King in his place.
I think King is close to getting it, but at times he just gets stuck between being somewhat aggressive but then pulling up.
Iverson’s defense is at times a plus, his offense is not. King just needs a bit more reliability.
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Well, he is technically a freshman so that is understandable. His defense seems fairly decent.
Iversen could be really valuable off the bench to shut down a hot hand too.
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According to the NET rankings... UNL has played 6 Quad 1 opponents this season. All of them have been on the road. Last year UNL was 0-9 vs Quad 1 programs. Nice to be reminded of the YoY improvement.
Rankings can change but as of today Nebraska has 8 games left against quad 1 (MSU, Wisconsin, Maryland, at Purdue, Purdue, at Michigan, at MSU, and Iowa). 6 left against quad 2.
Quads so far:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw96haHVYAA_aM2.jpg:large)
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Massey composite rankings (51 rankings), with last week in parenthesis (remember it does not factor in last night's results)...
- Duke (1)
- Virginia (2)
- Tennessee (5)
- MICHIGAN STATE (4)
- Gonzaga (3)
- MICHIGAN (6)
- Kansas (8)
- Texas Tech (10)
- Virginia Tech (9)
- North Carolina (7)
- Nevada (12)
- Auburn (11)
- Oklahoma (13)
- Buffalo (24)
- Florida State (20)
- Kentucky (18)
- MARYLAND (-)
- NEBRASKA (21)
- PURDUE (23)
- Houston (16)
- Villanova (-)
- Louisville (-)
- Marquette (-)
- NC State (17)
- TCU (22)
- 26. Wisconsin (25)
- 27. Indiana (27)
- 30. Iowa (40)
- 33. Ohio State (19)
- 42. Minnesota (41)
- 60. Northwestern (56)
- 79. Penn State (70)
- 104. Rutgers (116)
- 129. Illinois (131)
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Based on @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's composite computer rankings, the tiers should probably be:
- 4 Michigan State, 6 Michigan
- 17 Maryland, 18 Nebraska, 19 Purdue
- 26 Wisconsin, 27 Indiana, 30 Iowa, 33 Ohio State
- 60 Northwestern, 79 Penn State
- 104 Rutgers, 129 Illinois
I left out #42 Minnesota because I'm really not sure. #26 Wisconsin - #33 Ohio State are all clustered pretty tightly so Minnesota doesn't "feel" like they fit there but they also "feel" a lot better than #60 NU and #79 PSU. FWIW, this would mostly match our current tiers with just these changes:
- Maryland up to tier-2 from tier-3
- Wisconsin down to tier-3 from tier-2
- Indiana down to tier-3 from tier-2
Maryland is +1 in upsets while Wisconsin and Indiana are both -1 so those moves seem reasonable.
I'm not making any changes yet, we'll see what this week's results look like. Games for those three teams:
- Maryland is at Ohio State on Friday. If they win, the Terps move up.
- Wisconsin hosts Michigan on Saturday. If they lose it may be time to move them down?
- Indiana is at Purdue on Saturday. They should lose regardless of whether they are tier-2 or tier-3 but if they get run off the court it might be time to consider moving them down.
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With your proposed tiers, what about Minnesota in a standalone tier 4?
Indiana already beat PSU on the road and faces NU on the road next Tuesday, so having an empty tier between them would make wins in both games non-upsets.
I don't know the other results between your tier-3 and tier-4 teams when tier 3 is on the road, but it seems like there's a sizable gap there between teams ranked in the 20's / early 30's and teams ranked in the 60's/70's. And that gap seems perfectly Minnesota-sized...
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With your proposed tiers, what about Minnesota in a standalone tier 4?
Indiana already beat PSU on the road and faces NU on the road next Tuesday, so having an empty tier between them would make wins in both games non-upsets.
I don't know the other results between your tier-3 and tier-4 teams when tier 3 is on the road, but it seems like there's a sizable gap there between teams ranked in the 20's / early 30's and teams ranked in the 60's/70's. And that gap seems perfectly Minnesota-sized...
The two games tomorrow night will be a good test for this idea:
- Minnesota is at Illinois
- Iowa is at Penn State
As we currently have it configured, tier-4 Minnesota should lose at tier-5 Illinois and tier-3 Iowa should lose at tier-4 Penn State. I think there is a pretty good chance that both road teams will win and that would be a good case for creating a new tier-4 containing Minnesota (and Ohio State if they lose at home to Maryland on Friday).
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Also FYI, the Indiana problem might not be solvable until after the Michigan game.
Indiana shouldn't win @ Purdue. Obviously if they do, it ruins everything, and as a Purdue fan I don't want to think about that right now. So let's just assume they lose, and leave the point differential out of it because it's a rivalry game.
If you move Indiana down to tier 3, then Northwestern should beat them at home and they should lose to Michigan at home. If you leave them at tier 2, then they should beat Northwestern on the road and beat Michigan at home.
- If Indiana loses to Purdue, loses to Northwestern, and loses to Michigan, they move down to tier 3 and Northwestern makes sense to stay in tier 4.
- If Indiana loses to Purdue, beats Northwestern, and loses to Michigan, it might be time to move Indiana to tier 3 but do what I suggest in the previous post that you have a blank tier between 3 and 5, and Northwestern/PSU goes to tier 5?
I do think Indiana based on performance has not justified moving down yet, but is either going to lose to Northwestern or Michigan, and possibly both. That may be a strong indicator of where these tiers need to be based almost purely on Indiana's performance.
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Purdue became substantially better once Painter figured out Williams is substantially better than Haarms.
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Purdue became substantially better once Painter figured out Williams is substantially better than Haarms.
Has that happened? Or did the grad transfer just get hurt/Purdue play in some blowouts/Haarms get that foul trouble?
Also, I like Purdue because they have an identity and just stick with it. They've got three bigs who seem good, but it seems (and someone can correct me) they only play one at a time, preferring to go with Edwards and three tall shooting guard types, give or take Aaron Wheeler, who played 17 minutes vs Wisconsin and I was so stressed, I can't recall a damn thing about his game.
Painter really seems to have his thing these past few years.
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Has that happened? Or did the grad transfer just get hurt/Purdue play in some blowouts/Haarms get that foul trouble?
Also, I like Purdue because they have an identity and just stick with it. They've got three bigs who seem good, but it seems (and someone can correct me) they only play one at a time, preferring to go with Edwards and three tall shooting guard types, give or take Aaron Wheeler, who played 17 minutes vs Wisconsin and I was so stressed, I can't recall a damn thing about his game.
Painter really seems to have his thing these past few years.
I honestly haven't sat down and watched an entire Purdue game. Even against MSU I missed until the under 4 timeout in the first half. But I just didn't notice much of him in November and December, and have seen him playing seemingly substantially more, and responding, in January. I can't speak to the circumstances as to why. He looks like a major upgrade over Haarms and Boudreaux though.
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Dang, Purdue, have a heart. That's gonna' leave a mark...
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I had courtside seats to an NBA game tonight. It does not want me to watch more hoops but it does emphasize how tiny and crappy I am at hoops at 6 foot 1sh.
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I had courtside seats to an NBA game tonight. It does not want me to watch more hoops but it does emphasize how tiny and crappy I am at hoops at 6 foot 1sh.
Most of the football players lived in my dorm my sophomore year, and I worked in the cafeteria in the adjacent dorm where basketball players among other athletes, lived. It was always jarring how tall they were, even compared to football players, just based on who you were used to seeing them share the court with. These guards, who were basketball small, would walk in, and I'd always be surprised they were still 6'3"
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Tre Williams is really good. Much better than any of us thought coming in. It's not just garbage time in blowouts. He went toe to toe with Nick Ward and Ethan Happ and held his own.
Coming into the year, we thought he was a "project" big. Dude is impressing everyone.
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I'm not making any changes yet, we'll see what this week's results look like. Games for those three teams:
- Maryland is at Ohio State on Friday. [When] they win, the Terps move up.
FIFY
OSU has cratered, they are not any good right now. Maybe it gets fixed, but not against Maryland.
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I honestly haven't sat down and watched an entire Purdue game. Even against MSU I missed until the under 4 timeout in the first half. But I just didn't notice much of him in November and December, and have seen him playing seemingly substantially more, and responding, in January. I can't speak to the circumstances as to why. He looks like a major upgrade over Haarms and Boudreaux though.
I read on the Purdue forums that part of his increased role in the rotation is due to his weight loss. He got on to campus in the 280 range but has dropped about 30 to 40 pounds since then. He has a ton of potential and is making the most of his opportunities.
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FIFY
OSU has cratered, they are not any good right now. Maybe it gets fixed, but not against Maryland.
I'm as concerned as you are. Note my earlier post about things getting tenuous for the Buckeyes. If they don't get it fixed pronto their tournament chances are going to rapidly disappear. They have already lost three in a row including a bad loss to Rutgers, a home loss, and a potentially bad loss to Iowa. Their next four games are no picnic with Maryland and Purdue at home followed by Nebraska and Michigan on the road. If this losing streak grows to seven it will be nearly impossible for this team to fight their way back into being a potential at-large tournament team.
They are currently 12-4/2-3 so they basically need to go a little better than .500 the rest of the way to be a bubble team at 20-11/10-10.
If they lose these next four to drop to 12-8/2-7 then they would need to be near-perfect* the rest of the way (8-3) to get to the same place.
*I realize that 8-3 isn't mathematically "near perfect" but in practice it is because those last 11 games include road games against MSU, UMD, and PU. As a practical matter, if the Buckeyes can't beat those teams at home then they aren't very likely to beat them on the road so they'd need to win the other eight of their last 11 games which are made up of:
- Home games against RU, PSU, IL, NU, IA, and UW, and
- Road games against IU and NU
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I read on the Purdue forums that part of his increased role in the rotation is due to his weight loss. He got on to campus in the 280 range but has dropped about 30 to 40 pounds since then. He has a ton of potential and is making the most of his opportunities.
I know MSU took Bingham over him, because the general take was he was the higher upside guy, but Williams was the more sure thing, and with Ward and Tillman eating up all the bigs minutes this year, we didn't really need a guy to contribute right away.
But hell, even if Williams only gets a little better, he's really damn good. Bingham looks like a project and a half. Kithier looks like a guy whose commitment we probably accepted too early, but maybe missing his entire Senior year of HS is having a lasting impact. If Ward goes pro for good this time, MSU will have to play a lot of small ball last year, because beyond Tillman, neither Bingham or Kithier look like contributors as sophomores.
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Nebraska has the third longest home winning streak in the nation, and the longest among Power 5 teams.
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hopefully the streak continues
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hopefully the streak continues
Can't find the dislike button. Need to talk to upper management
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Can't find the dislike button. Need to talk to upper management
They don't listen, nor care.
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perhaps try lower management
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They don't listen, nor care.
We need a "chili has beans" button
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not on the Big 12 board!
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Izzo said there is a chance Langford's injury is season ending. :91:
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I read on the Purdue forums that part of his increased role in the rotation is due to his weight loss. He got on to campus in the 280 range but has dropped about 30 to 40 pounds since then. He has a ton of potential and is making the most of his opportunities.
Actually I think he came in around 330, and lost the weight to get to 280. He looks every bit of 280 right now.
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I’m on he verge of staring a hole in Wisconsin’s KenPom page.
By my math, considering SOS and such, 17 wins has UW needing some BTT wins, 18 should have UW on the bubble, but I think in, 19 would probably have them in.
They have 11 wins, 14 games left.
I’m breaking down the games like this.
Five should win: NW at home, Iowa at home, PSU at home, Illinois home and away.
Three where they’re slight favorites, but it’s tricky: at NW, at Minn, hosting MD.
Sweep those, UW should be golden, lose one, could be tricky.
Then there’s, not favored, but could be close: at IU, at OSU.
At Nebraska was in that group, but the Huskers are rolling. Mich and MSU in Madison are listed as possibly close, but I’ll wait and see. In Ann Arbor feels unwinnable.
So five should-wins, five ones where they should be right there, 2-3 longshot but there’s a chance and one deeply unlikely. Based on how UW has been, tough but schizophrenic, I think the path is doable unless they trip up or just drop everything winnable.
(If UW wants to upset Michigan, that’d be peachy)
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Izzo said there is a chance Langford's injury is season ending. :91:
It took me a long to realize that both Indiana and Michigan State have a "Langford." Now I'm less-confused.
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@bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) , I like that way of looking at it but I'm not a KenPom subscriber so I have to make some guesses.
Looking at my team (Ohio State), they are 12-4/2-3 with a somewhat weaker SoS than Wisconsin. Thus, I'm thinking they need to finish at least 20-11/10-10 or else they'll need an improbable run in Chicago. Fifteen games remaining:
- 4 Should definitely win: vs RU, vs PSU, vs IL, vs NU
- 3 Should probably win: vs UW, at NU, v IA
- 2 Probable losses: v UMD, v PU,
- 4 Strongly probable losses: at UNL, at IU, at UMD, at PU
- 2 Would take a miracle: at M, at MSU
So I think the Buckeyes need eight wins and I'm only seeing seven. They are going to have to be perfect in the games that they should win and pick up an upset somewhere along the way.
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According to KenPom, with schedule rankings and then OOC schedule rankings in brackets:
- 4 B1G teams are in the top 10 strength of schedule: PSU 3 [82], Illinois 4 [62], Purdue 5 [60], and Wisconsin 8 [67]
- 2 additional B1G teams are between 11-20 (so 6 of top 20 overall): MSU 14 [91], Nebraska 20 [176]
- 2 additional B1G teams are between 21-30 (so 8 of top 30 overall): Rutgers 23 [280], Indiana 24 [214]
- Remaining teams overall [OOC] schedule rankings of Maryland 45 [285], Northwestern 48 [308], Ohio State 52 [232], Iowa 53 [331], Minnesota 74 [252], and Michigan 103 [298]
I think all of these teams will see their SoS buoyed as we continue conference play.
Other conferences and their share of the top 30 SoS:
- Big 12: 3 in top 10 and Texas at 15th, but only 4 schools in top 30 (WVU just outside at 32)
- ACC: 0 in top 10, 3 in teens, and 2 more total to round out 5 in the top 30
- SEC: 0 in top 10, only 2 in top 30
- PAC: 0 in top 30 (?!?)
- Big East: 2 in top 10, 3 in top 30 (Villanova just outside at 31)
I think it shows not only how strong the B1G is itself, but also that we haven't shied away from scheduling somewhat tough OOC.
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According to KenPom, with schedule rankings and then OOC schedule rankings in brackets:
Texas Tech has a home game vs the Cyclones tonight, could be moving up in the top 10
SETON HALL & CREIGHTON need to go on a run in the Big East
too bad Clemson is a football school
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@bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) , I like that way of looking at it but I'm not a KenPom subscriber so I have to make some guesses.
Looking at my team (Ohio State), they are 12-4/2-3 with a somewhat weaker SoS than Wisconsin. Thus, I'm thinking they need to finish at least 20-11/10-10 or else they'll need an improbable run in Chicago. Fifteen games remaining:
- 4 Should definitely win: vs RU, vs PSU, vs IL, vs NU
- 3 Should probably win: vs UW, at NU, v IA
- 2 Probable losses: v UMD, v PU,
- 4 Strongly probable losses: at UNL, at IU, at UMD, at PU
- 2 Would take a miracle: at M, at MSU
So I think the Buckeyes need eight wins and I'm only seeing seven. They are going to have to be perfect in the games that they should win and pick up an upset somewhere along the way.
KenPom has them favored by 7 in each of the first four.
It has them by 4 vs Iowa, 2 vs UW, 1 at NU.
Favored by 2 at home vs MD, by 1 at home vs Purdue.
The last six, the best chance to win is 40 percent at IU and 37 at MD.
So basically, the next week could get them ahead of the eight ball and OSU fans are big Creighton and Cincy fans.
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KenPom has them favored by 7 in each of the first four.
It has them by 4 vs Iowa, 2 vs UW, 1 at NU.
Favored by 2 at home vs MD, by 1 at home vs Purdue.
The last six, the best chance to win is 40 percent at IU and 37 at MD.
So basically, the next week could get them ahead of the eight ball and OSU fans are big Creighton and Cincy fans.
First off, thanks.
Second, in addition to being Creighton/Cincy fans, I would think that the Syracuse loss looks better after Syracuse's win over Dook.
As I said, I think Ohio State needs eight more wins so using what you provided to rank the games in order of likelihood of victory:
- vs RU -7
- vs PSU -7
- vs IL -7
- vs NU -7
- vs IA -4
- vs UW -2
- vs UMD -2
- at NU -1
- vs PU -1
- at IU 40%
- at UMD 37%
- at UNL <37%
- at PU <37%
- at M very unlikely
- at MSU very unlikely
These next two games, IMHO, are hugely important. They are #7 (Friday night) and #9 (a week from tonight) on my list and, as I stated, I think Ohio State needs eight wins. Win those two and the Buckeyes look pretty good with (essentially) a "should win" to give and only needing to finish 6-7. Lose those two and the Buckeyes are in trouble needing to win all of the remaining "should wins" and pick up a <40% likelihood upset to finish 8-5. The former is fairly likely, the latter very unlikely.
In theory that looks fine for the Buckeyes because they are theoretically favored in nine remaining games and if they won those and lost the rest they'd finish 21-10/11-9 and pretty safely in the tournament. In practice I think it looks a lot worse than that both because I slightly disagree with KenPom's prognostications and because, looking at those projected spreads what I see is:
- Five "should win games" #1-5
- Four "toss-ups" #6-9
- Six "should lose" games #10-15
If you assume that the Buckeyes win the "should win" games and lose the "should lose" games, they need to go 3-1 in the toss-ups. That is a tall order even though they are theoretically favored in all four.
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Do I have to be a Marquette fan?
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F_wycnV27K1IA%2FTC1A7l9S_FI%2FAAAAAAAADEY%2F9ZS2LNoEvOE%2Fs1600%2FP7010011.JPG&hash=278225d033aca7caf116ba4244e6cc30)
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no, but they did hold onto a win last night
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First off, thanks.
Second, in addition to being Creighton/Cincy fans, I would think that the Syracuse loss looks better after Syracuse's win over Dook.
As I said, I think Ohio State needs eight more wins so using what you provided to rank the games in order of likelihood of victory:
- vs RU -7
- vs PSU -7
- vs IL -7
- vs NU -7
- vs IA -4
- vs UW -2
- vs UMD -2
- at NU -1
- vs PU -1
- at IU 40%
- at UMD 37%
- at UNL <37%
- at PU <37%
- at M very unlikely
- at MSU very unlikely
These next two games, IMHO, are hugely important. They are #7 (Friday night) and #9 (a week from tonight) on my list and, as I stated, I think Ohio State needs eight wins. Win those two and the Buckeyes look pretty good with (essentially) a "should win" to give and only needing to finish 6-7. Lose those two and the Buckeyes are in trouble needing to win all of the remaining "should wins" and pick up a <40% likelihood upset to finish 8-5. The former is fairly likely, the latter very unlikely.
In theory that looks fine for the Buckeyes because they are theoretically favored in nine remaining games and if they won those and lost the rest they'd finish 21-10/11-9 and pretty safely in the tournament. In practice I think it looks a lot worse than that both because I slightly disagree with KenPom's prognostications and because, looking at those projected spreads what I see is:
- Five "should win games" #1-5
- Four "toss-ups" #6-9
- Six "should lose" games #10-15
If you assume that the Buckeyes win the "should win" games and lose the "should lose" games, they need to go 3-1 in the toss-ups. That is a tall order even though they are theoretically favored in all four.
Percentages on games 6-9
55
58
52
53
So all are basically tossups. Maths would say you likely get 2-2, but the flows of a season and oddness of that could swing things
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Do I have to be a Marquette fan?
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F_wycnV27K1IA%2FTC1A7l9S_FI%2FAAAAAAAADEY%2F9ZS2LNoEvOE%2Fs1600%2FP7010011.JPG&hash=278225d033aca7caf116ba4244e6cc30)
Probably. You just can't have them crater.
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Sooners too, I reckon. And Virginia. And Western 'Tuck. Did I just type that?
The Badgers are in a major funk. It's not stopping on Saturday either. What's the over-under on 1st half points? 13?
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Sooners too, I reckon. And Virginia. And Western 'Tuck. Did I just type that?
The Badgers are in a major funk. It's not stopping on Saturday either. What's the over-under on 1st half points? 13?
The quality of the funk is interesting. UW has shown it can match good teams, granted in oft schizophrenic ways. Minny and WKU were bad, Minny on the offensive side, WKU just with catching a stupid hot shooting half. The question is, can it continue that?
The numbers are more bullish on UW this weekend than you'd think. That might just be a kink of numbers or carryover from the first half of the year. I don't think UW will win, and hope they don't just get smashed, but I'm probably holding out more hope than I should.
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What a difference a month makes. From a 3 seed, to a sit home. I'm serious. What the hell happened here??
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So an observation about the schedule and wondering how y'all feel about it.
BTN has in essence "unbunched" the conference's schedule. Used to be, you had a mess of Saturday games, a lot of Tuesday or Wednesday and the odd Sunday or other random day ESPN needed something. But I was looking forward, we have five three-game days and five four-game days and one five-game day the rest of the way (through early March). But you also get at least one game almost every night.
Do we like this?
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So an observation about the schedule and wondering how y'all feel about it.
BTN has in essence "unbunched" the conference's schedule. Used to be, you had a mess of Saturday games, a lot of Tuesday or Wednesday and the odd Sunday or other random day ESPN needed something. But I was looking forward, we have five three-game days and five four-game days and one five-game day the rest of the way (through early March). But you also get at least one game almost every night.
Do we like this?
I don't. It used to be clear weeknights were T-R, weekends were Saturday and occasionally Sunday. So you'd play once each, with your allotted bye weeks. Now I'm not sure how they do it. MSU plays Thursday, but not at all all weekend, then 3 times next week. I'm guessing Monday's game against Maryland counts as a weekend game? Who knows.
Even aside from that, I don't think "more" is better, because it's never appointment viewing. Aside from the whole not scheduling a Friday night around college basketball; even on nights in, I used to be pretty free to watch T-R, and then Saturday and Sunday afternoon, knowing that Mondays, Sunday nights, Fridays if we were in, we'd watch a movie and something we had DVRd, but when Big Ten played, it was appointment viewing. Now there's constantly a game, so while you always COULD watch, you never feel like you need to, and it makes me end up watching less, because I can always just catch the next one. Same with football, I watch less off Saturday games than I used to, simply because it used to feel like Monday Night Football, and even Thursday night college football, were your only two chances off Saturday-Sunday to see football, so I'd watch, even for a lousy matchup. Now, I just tell myself, meh, I'll watch tomorrows game, but then I tell myself the same tomorrow. When it was appointment viewing, I'd find myself scheduling around it, now I find excuses to avoid it. Sunday night, I've just watched enough sports, I can't get into it. I absolutely hate the Sunday evening/night Big Ten games, and it's like pulling teeth to watch when MSU participates. If MSU isn't playing there is a less than 5% chance I watch, if MSU is, it's 50/50.
And that's aside from a firm commitment not to watch any of these Friday night Big Ten games, just because I want them to go away, and while Delany is relying on us to still watch, even if we dislike it, I can at least do something, albeit insignificant, to let them know I won't.
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What a difference a month makes. From a 3 seed, to a sit home. I'm serious. What the hell happened here??
Fans overreacted to close losses, a dreadful offensive day against Minnesota and the wrong end of a bonkers half from WKY?
If they miss the dance, it will because they actively start playing much worse i.e. the first halves against Minnesota and MD becomes the norms. But as I said above, UW needs to win the five it should and take three of five possible close ones to get in easy, or win two and make it kind of hard (assuming UW can't pull an upset at home).
This team has fight, we know this because it erased a 21-point deficit on the damn road. Theyve burned some margin for error, but a team with that fight has a reasonable road ahead. (doing a little more than the numbers say on Saturday would help immensely though)
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What a difference a month makes. From a 3 seed, to a sit home. I'm serious. What the hell happened here??
a month?
From mid-December to Mid-January things shake out
anyone seeding teams in December is just plain guessing
I'm also not sure what trying to tier teams in conference in January accomplishes. Any team can get hot and win 3 or 4 in a row or go cold and lose 4 straight. Changing tiers.
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So who expected to see Illinois up 23 at half?
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UW lost at home, to that team UI just throttled.
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Cyclones took down #8 Texas Tech in Lubbock
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Fans overreacted to close losses, a dreadful offensive day against Minnesota and the wrong end of a bonkers half from WKY?
If they miss the dance, it will because they actively start playing much worse i.e. the first halves against Minnesota and MD becomes the norms. But as I said above, UW needs to win the five it should and take three of five possible close ones to get in easy, or win two and make it kind of hard (assuming UW can't pull an upset at home).
This team has fight, we know this because it erased a 21-point deficit on the damn road. Theyve burned some margin for error, but a team with that fight has a reasonable road ahead. (doing a little more than the numbers say on Saturday would help immensely though)
Free throws. The Badgers used to pride themselves on making more than their opponents even shot. That's long gone with this group. Hell, on Monday Maryland took 29* and made 24. UW took 6 and made 3. Ballgame.
* Refs were out to get Maryland, clearly. :67:
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I don't. It used to be clear weeknights were T-R, weekends were Saturday and occasionally Sunday. So you'd play once each, with your allotted bye weeks. Now I'm not sure how they do it. MSU plays Thursday, but not at all all weekend, then 3 times next week. I'm guessing Monday's game against Maryland counts as a weekend game? Who knows.
As a fan who lives ~2 hours from campus and likes to usually go to 2-3 games per season I hate it. Weeknight games are difficult for me. If it is a 6:30 or 7pm game I can't make it without taking some time off work and then it is a LONG evening:
- Leave work at ~3:30
- Go home and change then drive ~2 hours to campus
- Watch game from 6:30 or 7 to about 8:30 or 9
- Have dinner and drive ~2 hours home plus traffic
- Get home at 1am
If it is an 8pm game I can make it without time off work but it is VERY rushed and then I end up home even later.
I strongly prefer weekend games. Going to campus on a Saturday for a game is much easier and more relaxed.
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that's my situation
a little over 2 hours from Pinnacle Bank
my daughter does live in Lincoln, so I can sleep on her couch after a late game, but then getting to work by 7:30am is tough the next morning
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that's my situation
a little over 2 hours from Pinnacle Bank
my daughter does live in Lincoln, so I can sleep on her couch after a late game, but then getting to work by 7:30am is tough the next morning
I don't have anywhere to crash near campus but I could get a hotel. Even if I did have a place to crash or get a hotel it doesn't really help with getting to work the next day. The way I see it, between the end of the game and work the next morning I have to drive the ~2 hours. I'd rather drive it that night, sleep in my own bed, and shower in my own bathroom than to go to bed earlier but then need to get up and ~4am in order to have time to get a shower and drive ~2 hours to work.
Ohio State typically has package deals where you pick two games from the "crap game" list (they don't call it that, but it is) and two games from the "good games" list. In the past I did that if I could find four weekend games. That has gotten tougher because they are playing less of them now.
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Completely impossible for me to get to any weekday games in Madison. Especially this time of year, with unknown weather.
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Free throws. The Badgers used to pride themselves on making more than their opponents even shot. That's long gone with this group. Hell, on Monday Maryland took 29* and made 24. UW took 6 and made 3. Ballgame.
* Refs were out to get Maryland, clearly. :67:
They tried flopping, but it didn't work.
Was quite surprised to see how undisciplined Wiscy was.
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Free throws. The Badgers used to pride themselves on making more than their opponents even shot. That's long gone with this group. Hell, on Monday Maryland took 29* and made 24. UW took 6 and made 3. Ballgame.
* Refs were out to get Maryland, clearly. :67:
That goal was always, to a degree, overstated. UW only pulled it off for a season six times. Twice was the two final four teams, and that was mostly because of excellent FT shooting and not fouling.
There’s three controlable parts to that.
1. Fouling
2. Getting to the line
3. Shooting
1. UW is good, 52nd in the country, though admittedly less great than many Bo teams.
2. UW free throw shooting is atrocious, mostly owing to Happ head case issues and odd Trice and Davison struggles (kinda Nate too).
3. UW isn’t getting to the line because Happ isn’t trying to as hard because he’s spraying free throws all over. And I don’t know how you fix it that. Happ is an a-typical Badger, and despite being good, is in his own damn head on these FTs.
(It’s also worth noting the free throw thing is not a good way to live in the post season, when calls turn more toward highly talented players and shooting is more key)
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ON February 4, 2017, after back to back losses to MSU and OSU to fall to 14-9 overall and 4-6 in Big Ten play, the UM student newspaper called for Beilein to be fired, and their online poll supported that roughly 65-35.
Their next game out, they clobbered MSU by 30, and have since then gone 62-11, 25-7 in the conference, won 2 Big Ten tourney titles, reached a Sweet 16 and a Final 4, and are about to be #1 in the nation.
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ON February 4, 2017, after back to back losses to MSU and OSU to fall to 14-9 overall and 4-6 in Big Ten play, the UM student newspaper called for Beilein to be fired, and their online poll supported that roughly 65-35.
Their next game out, they clobbered MSU by 30, and have since then gone 62-11, 25-7 in the conference, won 2 Big Ten tourney titles, reached a Sweet 16 and a Final 4, and are about to be #1 in the nation.
Sports are a fickle place.
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Winston is gassed, he can't keep playing him these minutes, but with Langford and Ahrens out, he can't use McQuaid at PG
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was a good game until the last 5 minutes
the vault was rockin
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I distinctly remember the low point of Michigan's season 2 years ago, especially with how disappointing the previous two years were (with the NJIT and Eastern Michigan losses being the low points, largely due to injuries, though). I was admittedly already speculating about how Beilein should retire and who could replace him. Thankfully, Derrick Walton emerged late that year and led the team to the BigTen tournament championship, upsetting Louisville in the NCAA tournament to end Pitino's career to avenge the championship game loss (and arguably should've beaten Oregon the following game).
As it is, the court of Crisler Center will almost certainly be honored to Beilein when he retires, just as Berenson was for hockey, since he's already the winningest coach in program history and does everything the right way. His decision to hire Luke Yaklich and let him coach the defense is the big difference, of course. Billy Donlon's year as the defensive assistant before he went to Northwestern was an improvement, too, of course, but Michigan's defense has been even better in the past two years.
As for tonight's game, Sparty got a big win, which might have been their toughest game left other than the Michigan games, since they don't have to go to Maryland (as I've said before, I'm glad Michigan doesn't go to Lincoln, West Lafayette, or Columbus, but that's a fortunate break for MSU, too). In fact, MSU gets Maryland at home next, so if they win that I'd almost concede that they're the favorite, but hopefully that would just provide Michigan more motivation to keep winning.
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Beyond that, the next two are at Iowa and at Purdue. If they can get through all three, then I'd say they are probably the favorite.
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Nebraska winning in Bloomington four days ago then losing at home to MSU last night is more support for the idea that we need a blank tier in between the Michigan Schools and everybody else.
I'm planning on waiting until Tuesday to update the tiers but as of now I'm thinking (the #'s next to each team are massey composite computer rankings):
- Michigan State 4, Michigan 5
- BLANK
- Maryland 17, Nebraska 18, Purdue 19
- Wisconsin 26, Indiana 29, Iowa 30
- Ohio State 33 (this assumes that the Buckeyes lose at home tonight to UMD)
- Minnesota 42, Northwestern 61, Penn State 79
- Rutgers 104, Illinois 132
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The Huskers top 6-7 players are good enough to compete in the BIG. The drop off after that group is striking and has/will hurt the team when key players get into foul trouble. UNL's D kept them in the game on a night of cold shooting. How many 3's rattled in and out last night? It happens... Part of that is due to MSU's D and part of it to guys just missing open shots. But physically, UNL was in that game. Compared to where the program was 5-6 years ago, I think progress is being made. Fans are always impatient, but UNL has no basketball history. Need to continue to recruit, attract good transfers and work on bench depth. Easier said than done... but the support is there.
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Nebraska winning in Bloomington four days ago then losing at home to MSU last night is more support for the idea that we need a blank tier in between the Michigan Schools and everybody else.
I'm planning on waiting until Tuesday to update the tiers but as of now I'm thinking (the #'s next to each team are massey composite computer rankings):
- Michigan State 4, Michigan 5
- BLANK
- Maryland 17, Nebraska 18, Purdue 19
- Wisconsin 26, Indiana 29, Iowa 30
- Ohio State 33 (this assumes that the Buckeyes lose at home tonight to UMD)
- Minnesota 42, Northwestern 61, Penn State 79
- Rutgers 104, Illinois 132
I agree with this. I'd also speculate by years end Maryland will be in the #2 spot.
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Easier said than done... but the support is there.
That's the big deal. Good (great?) coach, great facilities, great fan support.
The obstacles are history and local talent. Can those things be overcome? I don't know, and frankly they are outside of Nebraska's control. But everything they can control seems to be set up well.
From MSU's standpoint, I think the most surprising thing is how they've finished in both road wins. Down our two top wings, which also forces McQuaid to play exclusively at the 2, which means Winston is our only real PG, has forced him to play a ton, the freshmen to play more than they have, and walk ons to be called in to play in the first half. MSU still has enough top end talent, that winning those games with both Langford and Ahrens out doesn't shock me, but they way they did does. I would expect MSU to run out to leads and hold on, not get into 35 minutes of dog fights, and then somehow be the team with more in the tank in the final 5.
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Weird game. I believe at one point the announcers said Nebraska had missed 14 straight 3s. If you even hit 4 of those (<33%), that's 12 points. They were down 10 at the time.
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That's how MSU has largely been defending teams with McQuaid, and Langford when healthy. Pack it in, give you nothing inside, and trust McQuaid to shut down your best shooter. They did the same thing against Purdue, and McQuaid completely shut down Edwards, and yesterday shut down Palmer. Both guys shot like crap, but both guys were absolutely forcing bad shots too. Edwards is only 6'1", but how he did against the 6'6" Palmer gives me more hope about how he'll do against Matthews and Poole. The question is will Langford be back by then, because neither Purdue or Nebraska was able to find a second option, they just kept forcing bad 3 pointers with their first option.
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The Huskers top 6-7 players are good enough to compete in the BIG. The drop off after that group is striking and has/will hurt the team when key players get into foul trouble. UNL's D kept them in the game on a night of cold shooting. How many 3's rattled in and out last night? It happens... Part of that is due to MSU's D and part of it to guys just missing open shots. But physically, UNL was in that game.
anything in the pipeline to replace Watson, Palmer, & Copeland after this season?
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Weird game. I believe at one point the announcers said Nebraska had missed 14 straight 3s. If you even hit 4 of those (<33%), that's 12 points. They were down 10 at the time.
shouldn't be taking 14 threes, even if a few of them are rattling in - regardless of the defense
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That's how MSU has largely been defending teams with McQuaid, and Langford when healthy. Pack it in, give you nothing inside, and trust McQuaid to shut down your best shooter. They did the same thing against Purdue, and McQuaid completely shut down Edwards, and yesterday shut down Palmer. Both guys shot like crap, but both guys were absolutely forcing bad shots too. Edwards is only 6'1", but how he did against the 6'6" Palmer gives me more hope about how he'll do against Matthews and Poole. The question is will Langford be back by then, because neither Purdue or Nebraska was able to find a second option, they just kept forcing bad 3 pointers with their first option.
I'm interested to see Purdue at home vs MSU. I think the team, now that Williams is getting minutes, is starting to come together a lot more. Eastern has been becoming more aggressive on the offensive end, driving to the rim, which was highly necessary. And Edwards just tried to play hero ball and force everything against MSU, which I'm sure he'll scale things back after seeing how badly that worked against MSU the first time.
While I don't expect Mackey to "rattle" anyone from MSU, I think the home advantage is still important, if nothing else than for Purdue's young players.
I think home vs MSU is still a game that even if we don't put a gap in the tiers, I think will still have MSU favored. Sagarin's predictor would still have MSU favored by 3-4 points on the road. But I think that if the team can play team basketball, beating MSU at home would not be an absurd shock either.
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anything in the pipeline to replace Watson, Palmer, & Copeland after this season?
a lot of concerns about your question from the fans...
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I went ahead and updated it today, I'll continue to make adjustments as necessary. The new-and-improved tiers are:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- BLANK
- Purdue, Maryland, Nebraska
- Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin
- Ohio State
- Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State
- Illinois, Rutgers
Based on those tiers, upsets so far have been:
Date | Won | @/v | Lost |
30-Nov | UW | @ | IA |
5-Dec | MN | v | UNL |
3-Jan | MN | @ | UW |
9-Jan | RU | v | tOSU |
11-Jan | PU | @ | UW |
14-Jan | UNL | @ | IU |
The updated projected final standings/seeds for the BTT are:
- 19-1/30-1 Michigan (wins tiebreaker over MSU based on overall record against D1 opposition)
- 19-1/28-3 Michigan State
- 14-6/21-10 Purdue
- 13-7/23-8 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over UMD based on record against IA&UW)*
- 13-7/22-9 Maryland
- 12-8/21-10 Indiana
- 11-9/19-12 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker over IA based on H2H, won in Iowa City)
- 11-9/22-9 Iowa
- 8-12/18-13 Ohio State
- 5-15/14-17 Northwestern (wins tiebreaker over MN based on H2H, no game in Minneapolis)
- 5-15/15-16 Minnesota
- 4-16/8-23 Illinois (wins tiebreaker over RU based on H2H, no game in Picastaway)
- 4-16/11-19 Rutgers
- 2-18/9-22 Penn State
*This one was a REALLY complicated tiebreaker:
- The first tiebreaker is H2H but these two teams play each other twice. Maryland won in College Park on January 2 and we project Nebraska to win in Lincoln on February 6
- The second tiebreaker is record against the two 19-1 schools but we project both to go 0-season against them.
- The third tiebreaker is record against Purdue but both schools play Purdue twice and are projected to go 1-1.
- The fourth tiebreaker is record against Indiana. Nebraska doesn't host Indiana and Maryland doesn't visit Indiana so we would project Maryland to go 1-0 while Nebraska goes 0-1 against the Hoosiers and that would break the tie in favor of Maryland but Nebraska won at Indiana so both are projected to finish the season 1-0 against Indiana.
- The fifth tiebreaker is record against the two 11-9 schools (Iowa and Wisconsin). Maryland doesn't host Iowa while Nebraska doesn't visit Wisconsin so we project Nebraska to go 2-1 while Maryland goes 1-2. Thus, the tie breaks in favor of Nebraska.
Based on all of that, the match-ups at the BTT in Chicago Illinois would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Minnesota vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Illinois vs #13 Rutgers, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14 (Pi day!):
- #5 Maryland vs MN/PSU, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Indiana vs IL/RU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Wisconsin vs #10 Northwestern, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Iowa vs #9 Ohio State, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan vs IA/tOSU, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Michigan State vs UW/NU, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Purdue vs IU/IL/RU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Nebraska vs UMD/MN/PSU, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- M/IA/tOSU vs UNL/UMD/MN/PSU, 1pm on CBS
- MSU/UW/NU vs PU/IU/IL/RU, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- M/IA/tOSU/UNL/UMD/MN/PSU vs MSU/UW/NU/PU/IU/IL/RU, 3:30pm on CBS
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The one thing I love about the 2 seed, is that it's ideal for viewing.
I'd be very ok with a Big Ten title and a 2 seed.
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The one thing I love about the 2 seed, is that it's ideal for viewing.
I'd be very ok with a Big Ten title and a 2 seed.
My take, based on years of experience is that the worst one for viewing is the 4/5/11/14:
- The 5 vs 11/14 game is Thursday at 3pm. It is too early to get out of work for it and too late for lunch.
- The 4 vs 5/11/14 game is Friday at 3pm. Same problem.
I agree with you that the 2/7/10 is just about ideal for viewing:
- The 7/10 game is Thursday evening.
- The 2 vs 7/10 game is Friday evening.
IMHO, the 3/6/12/13 is even better:
- The 12/13 game is Wednesday evening.
- The 6 vs 12/13 game is late Thursday evening.
- The 3 vs 6/12/13 game is late Friday evening.
I also don't mind the 1/8/9 schedule:
- The 8/9 game is a little after noon on Thursday. I can usually schedule my lunch to at least see the second half.
- The 1 vs 8/9 game is a little after noon on Friday. Same thing.
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a lot of concerns about your question from the fans...
that's what I thought
it's this season or nothing
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So I created a spreadsheet to track game predictions based on the Sagarin rating system (http://arin.com/sports/cbsend.htm). It's a pretty simple rating system for predictions. Take the home team's rating, subtract the visiting team's rating, add the home court advantage adjustment [he currently uses 3.10], and the result is basically his prediction of the home team's point spread.
Just wanted to be able to compare that quickly and easily with our own system.
Attached is what I've got. Basically if the number is negative [and highlighted yellow], the AWAY team wins. Which is a little confusing, because when you read your "home" record, yellow is negative, while when you read your "away" record, yellow is positive. But it is what it is.
It shows Purdue (in a double-round robin) with a 17-9 record, with home losses to MSU and Michigan, and away losses to IU, MD, M, MSU, UNL, OSU, and UW.
The new tier systems shows Purdue with a 19-7 record, with home losses to MSU and M, and away losses to M, MSU, MD, UNL, UW, IU, Iowa.
Essentially the only places it disagrees are Iowa and Ohio State. And it's close. It has Iowa as a 0.65 point dog over Purdue at Iowa. It has Ohio State as a 0.54 point favorite over Purdue at home. Given that Iowa is the weakest Tier 3 team we show, and Ohio State is the strongest [well, only] Tier 4 team we show, that looks pretty close to what we'd think.
It does have MSU as a 25-1 record. It actually only has MSU as a 0.11 point dog on the road at Michigan. Which for two teams both in Tier 1, seems like a decent gap.
It has Michigan at 24-2, though, also losing on the road at Nebraska, and VERY close against Purdue, with Michigan only a 0.25 point favorite in West Laf.
Just thought I'd pass this along. I've got the spreadsheet set up so that all I need to do is upload 14 numbers from the Sagarin rankings and the rest will automatically update.
If anyone believes 3.10 points is not a sufficient HCA in the B1G, though, let me know. I can change that number as well, and it'll probably make some significant changes to the outcome.
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It has Michigan at 24-2, though, also losing on the road at Nebraska, and VERY close against Purdue, with Michigan only a 0.25 point favorite in West Laf.
perfect!
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The Bug Eaters have a squad of cagers - who knew?
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bought a couple rejects from Georgetown and Miami
also got lucky to pull a point guard from Chicago, Nebraska's first four-star and Rivals Top 150 signee in program history.
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So I created a spreadsheet to track game predictions based on the Sagarin rating system (http://arin.com/sports/cbsend.htm). It's a pretty simple rating system for predictions. Take the home team's rating, subtract the visiting team's rating, add the home court advantage adjustment [he currently uses 3.10], and the result is basically his prediction of the home team's point spread.
Just wanted to be able to compare that quickly and easily with our own system.
Attached is what I've got. Basically if the number is negative [and highlighted yellow], the AWAY team wins. Which is a little confusing, because when you read your "home" record, yellow is negative, while when you read your "away" record, yellow is positive. But it is what it is.
It shows Purdue (in a double-round robin) with a 17-9 record, with home losses to MSU and Michigan, and away losses to IU, MD, M, MSU, UNL, OSU, and UW.
The new tier systems shows Purdue with a 19-7 record, with home losses to MSU and M, and away losses to M, MSU, MD, UNL, UW, IU, Iowa.
Essentially the only places it disagrees are Iowa and Ohio State. And it's close. It has Iowa as a 0.65 point dog over Purdue at Iowa. It has Ohio State as a 0.54 point favorite over Purdue at home. Given that Iowa is the weakest Tier 3 team we show, and Ohio State is the strongest [well, only] Tier 4 team we show, that looks pretty close to what we'd think.
It does have MSU as a 25-1 record. It actually only has MSU as a 0.11 point dog on the road at Michigan. Which for two teams both in Tier 1, seems like a decent gap.
It has Michigan at 24-2, though, also losing on the road at Nebraska, and VERY close against Purdue, with Michigan only a 0.25 point favorite in West Laf.
Just thought I'd pass this along. I've got the spreadsheet set up so that all I need to do is upload 14 numbers from the Sagarin rankings and the rest will automatically update.
If anyone believes 3.10 points is not a sufficient HCA in the B1G, though, let me know. I can change that number as well, and it'll probably make some significant changes to the outcome.
I like it. At least in theory, this is a better way to do it because it offers much more flexibility than the tiers. Here is the list of games not played if you want to subrtact them from your list to get new projections:
Team | noAway | noAway | noAway | noHome | noHome | noHome |
M | UNL | tOSU | PU | IL | IA | RU |
MSU | UMD | MN | NU | IL | PSU | UW |
Purdue | IL | IA | RU | M | NU | UW |
UMD | IL | IU | NU | IA | MSU | RU |
UNL | NU | tOSU | UW | IU | M | RU |
IU | UNL | tOSU | UW | UMD | MN | PSU |
Iowa | IL | UMD | M | MN | PSU | PU |
UW | MSU | PU | RU | IU | UNL | tOSU |
tOSU | MN | PSU | UW | IU | M | UNL |
Minny | IU | IA | PSU | MSU | NU | tOSU |
NU | MN | PSU | PU | UMD | MSU | UNL |
PSU | IU | IA | MSU | MN | NU | tOSU |
ILL | M | MSU | RU | IA | UMD | PU |
RU | UMD | M | UNL | IL | PU | UW |
Setting it all up isn't all that bad, the hard part is keeping track of upsets especially when the tiers (or Sagrin rankings) change because you have to go back and recheck for past upsets that are no longer upsets and/or past expected results that are now upsets.
When I do updates I do one of two things, either:
- I only move one team at a time. This limits the number of things I need to look for. Ie, if we suddenly decided to move say Nebraska up to the currently blank tier-2 I wouldn't have to change much. That changes Nebraska's home games against the tier-1 teams (M&MSU) which become Nebraska wins (in this case the Cornhuskers don't host Michigan so that one just changes the projected records in games not played for UNL and M. It also changes Nebraska's record in road games against tier-3 teams (IU, IA, UW). In that case one of them (@UW) is a game not played, one Nebraska already played and won (@IU), and the other one Nebraska already played and lost (@IA). or
- I just basically start over with the upsets and projected records in games not played.
Which method I use is dependent on how early in the season it is and how many teams are moving. The earlier in the season and more teams that are moving the more appropriate #2 is. Later in the season and moving just one or two teams, I use #1.
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Hmm...
I can think of a few things that would make this easy...
- Make a change to the formatting of the no-plays. I.e. make them Bold text at the beginning of each year so that I can easily pick them out visibly.
- For games that have already occurred, simply add or subtract the margin of victory to the calculation. That way, it normalizes the point spread such that my simple conditional formatting of going yellow on positive/negative will still work, and if the calculation changes per Sagarin, it will automatically update.
Let me see what that looks like.
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Hmm... Never mind on that last one. I'll have to figure that out.
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This Michigan game is preemptively annoying me.
UW is a small underdog, matching what the computers think. This gives me hope, probably too much.
If UW loses, it functionally doesn't have an impact on the season. A win is found money. But a loss will send many UW fans into more of a tizzy. If they lose close, "why can't they beat good teams in crunch time?" If they're blown out, why can't they compete? And that'll scramble the numbers.
UW is mostly chasing win volume now. Losing to Mich doesn't make anything notably worse, but it'll be treated as such.
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Tier 2.
LOL!
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Terps are legit. Fairly young team continuing to trend upward too, which is scary.
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Terps are legit. Fairly young team continuing to trend upward too, which is scary.
Yeah. Not how I thought it would go tonight, after seeing all of the offensive rebounds.
Part of me can't help but think this is set up for Izzo.
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This Michigan game is preemptively annoying me.
UW is a small underdog, matching what the computers think. This gives me hope, probably too much.
If UW loses, it functionally doesn't have an impact on the season. A win is found money. But a loss will send many UW fans into more of a tizzy. If they lose close, "why can't they beat good teams in crunch time?" If they're blown out, why can't they compete? And that'll scramble the numbers.
UW is mostly chasing win volume now. Losing to Mich doesn't make anything notably worse, but it'll be treated as such.
Kenpom has it as a M -1 margin. I think that makes sense, given the location. Teske has been a great defender, but that's been against the PNR. His performance against post-up guys is at a lower level, and none of those were Happ. [At least that's what I'm reading.]
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UW rolling out some shots. Can’t do that today.
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Well, they're hanging in there. Nice to see in half one. If they can do their typical half two, they could pull this off.
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These Wolverines always have an answer. Up for with a couple minutes to go, UW needs some good offense. They give up at three-point play as part of a 6-0 run
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These Wolverines always have an answer. Up for with a couple minutes to go, UW needs some good offense. They give up at three-point play as part of a 6-0 run
They are super-good. Very efficient in what they do, on both sides.
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Speaking to Kenpom's margin for those (not here but elsewhere on the web) who thought it, at M -1, was off: it's clearly not.
Also, winning ones like this is essential for Michigan's development. They aren't used to games with final margins less than 10. Need to prove they can win close ones. Also need to prove than can win tricky ones in tricky places on tghe road. This half is huge all around.
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Michigan committed a lot of turnovers on fast breaks at big moments in this game. It's nice to be aggressive, but going fast in those moments with the lead was never necessary.
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Down goes Michigan. Some great defense from Wiscy down the stretch
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It’s like a team that loses close games to good teams tends to be good. How weird is that? :)
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Well, that was neat.
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It's super-important for UW to NOT crap the bed in Champaign this week, and at home against NU in a week.
Illinois is getting better. This will not be a layup and UW needs to be really careful.
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Michigan's offense was a shitshow today, and this was the team's worst game in over a year (at least since the previous BigTen loss at Northwestern last year). Brazdeikis obviously had the worst game of his career, there were a lot of stupid turnovers along with some dumb fouls, Livers and Brooks were particularly reluctant to shoot even when they were open, while Matthews tried to do too much once again, and only Teske (and Davis) played even an average game.
Part of it is the Kohl Center atmosphere, and it seemed like the court was more slippery than usual. Part of it was probably the week off, with Michigan playing worse when it has 5+ days between games. The refs were bad both ways, which was frustrating, too.
Today was just the beginning of the tough back half of the schedule with everyone except Penn State and Rutgers being a potential tournament team. Hopefully they're ready for it. Today's performance should at least humble the team and get them refocused.
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UW played a great 2nd half. M didn't.
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Mackey remains best watched on mute with music on.
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It's super-important for UW to NOT crap the bed in Champaign this week, and at home against NU in a week.
Illinois is getting better. This will not be a layup and UW needs to be really careful.
The irony of how that game is more important than this was.
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The irony of how that game is more important than this was.
Honestly, it is. Coming off this one magnifies it even more. Can't have a letdown. There is no room for any more of those.
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Feels like a lost year for Indiana. Not enough pieces around Langford to win yet, but it's not like he's a part of the process going forward either.
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The Official Review rule needs a massive overhaul
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After yesterday, some Wisconsin thoughts.
The win oddly didn’t change things a that much beyond A. Being a nice chip for seeding, B. Being a tossup game UW won, C. Calming people down
UW still has five or realistically should win, which would get to 17 wins, and needs one or more of MD at home, at NW, at Minny. KenPom now has UW a slight favorite at OSU and a tossup underdog at IU. Win three of five and it’s 20 wins.
Three long shots remain MSU at home, at NU, at Mich. KenPom projects UW to finish fifth at 12-8 in league.
Also, it appears Kobe King has surpassed Iverson in playing when it matters. It strikes me this is mostly that Iverson doing nothing involves lurking in the dunker spot, mishandling passes and getting caught under the rim. And King spaces better.
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Also, it appears Kobe King has surpassed Iverson in playing when it matters. It strikes me this is mostly that Iverson doing nothing involves lurking in the dunker spot, mishandling passes and getting caught under the rim. And King spaces better.
I was quietly hoping for this. The offense is much more crisp when he's in the game. Let KI come off the bench as a defensive stopper when needed. He gives nothing on the offensive side.
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I was quietly hoping for this. The offense is much more crisp when he's in the game. Let KI come off the bench as a defensive stopper when needed. He gives nothing on the offensive side.
If he just didn’t mishandle the ball, finished dunks and stopped getting blocked, he’d be OK. But he does all of those things.
It’s funny how we understate when teams just need a low-usage floor spacer. On another team or if they don’t hit that skid, he probably survives, but they just need a little more balance.
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Updated Sagarin predictor method now has Purdue as a 19-7 team in the double round robin. However, by now having a projected home win over Michigan, we "miss" on our schedule 3 home wins and 3 road wins, so 13-7 (not counting upsets). The road win at Wisconsin is still an upset, so new projection is 14-6.
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Florida State probably going to win most disappointing football/basketball combo this year
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Florida State probably going to win most disappointing football/basketball combo this year
How are they so high with a 1-3 record in the ACC?
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ACC hoops bias
ACC ACC ACC
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:96:
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How are they so high with a 1-3 record in the ACC?
High in which ranking?
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High in which ranking?
Watching the game for like 2 minutes, showed them as 11th.
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FSU's win over Purdue is looking increasingly strong, while Purdue's loss to FSU is looking increasingly bad.
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Watching the game for like 2 minutes, showed them as 11th.
Ahh, they gave that when they were 13-3, I think, and they had three decent to good wins and no really bad losses.
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FSU's win over Purdue is looking increasingly strong, while Purdue's loss to FSU is looking increasingly bad.
Looking it over, Purdue has a weird resume.
They are No. 9 in KenPom. That’s cool.
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Late night Friday game, as young as they are, to turn around and go straight to Mich ST, and play tonight....gift wrapped win for Izzo.
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Izzo gets a lot of wins.
Hoping for a good game
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Already tired.
Mich state pulls away big in the 2nd half.
One team rested, the other played Friday night .
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so that's how Izzo ended the Husker's home win streak
Huskers played that Monday on the road and then only had Tuesday and Wednesday to rest before the Spartans came to the Bank on Thursday!
Spartans played Sunday afternoon, not Monday
so Izzo's next 2 games after tonight, they only have 2 days rest. They play thursday at Iowa and then Sunday at Purdue. Upset alert!!!
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so that's how Izzo ended the Husker's home win streak
Huskers played that Monday on the road and then only had Tuesday and Wednesday to rest before the Spartans came to the Bank on Thursday!
Spartans played Sunday afternoon, not Monday
so Izzo's next 2 games after tonight, they only have 2 days rest. They play thursday at Iowa and then Sunday at Purdue. Upset alert!!!
I wouldn't be surprised. Iowa lit it up.
However, you forgot the most crucial part. The experience. Maryland is the 5th youngest team in Div I. This same team, next year with the same scenario, I'd still pick this years MSU, because of the rest, or lack of with a young team.
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Winston gets away with a lot of carries.
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so that's how Izzo ended the Husker's home win streak
Huskers played that Monday on the road and then only had Tuesday and Wednesday to rest before the Spartans came to the Bank on Thursday!
Spartans played Sunday afternoon, not Monday
so Izzo's next 2 games after tonight, they only have 2 days rest. They play thursday at Iowa and then Sunday at Purdue. Upset alert!!!
OSU had a full bye week before hosting MSU. MSU played two games in between Purdues last game and when Purdue played MSU.
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I miss Gary. He'd lose to weak teams, but he'd coach his heart out vs tougher teams.
Mark is more calculated. I expect him to just coast and get out of here with a healthy squad, giving casual Joe Blow MSU fan an inflated ego defeating these pups after 2 days full rest.
They haven't been back to CP since Wednesday, I believe.
MSU is definitely worth their rank though.
We get home, hopefully get 2 at home, and I wouldn't be surprised to drop the next 2 at Wiscy and Neb.
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I mean, that's all legs there. Missed FT's, falling on the floor, lack of speed back on defense.
Oh well. This is the only game between the 2. Shame.
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More than 2 minutes left, no Cowan or Fernando. Calculated move Turge. Weak, but I get it.
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Rutgers suddenly hot?
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Rutgers suddenly hot?
I don't think so. They recently lost at home to Northwestern. If you look at it, they have two big upset home wins. One was over Nebraska and the other over Ohio State. In both cases their victims were coming off of hard-fought home losses to your Spartans then traveling to New Jersey to play the Scarlet Knights on short rest. It happens.
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75% of Ohio State fans now voting that the team misses the NCAA tourney. ESPN has them squarely on the bubble. That Rutgers loss will keep them out of the Big dance.
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There were a bunch of upsets this weekend:
- Rutgers over Nebraska
- Wisconsin over Michigan
- Northwestern over Rutgers
Reminder, the tiers currently are:
- Michigan State, Michigan
- BLANK
- Purdue, Maryland, Nebraska
- Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa
- Ohio State
- Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State
- Illinois, Rutgers
The upsets so far have been:
Date | Won | @/v | Lost |
30-Nov | UW | @ | IA |
5-Dec | MN | v | UNL |
3-Jan | MN | @ | UW |
9-Jan | RU | v | tOSU |
11-Jan | PU | @ | UW |
14-Jan | UNL | @ | IU |
18-Jan | NU | @ | RU |
19-Jan | UW | v | M |
21-Jan | RU | v | UNL |
All teams are within +/-1 except Minnesota which is +2.
Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 19-1/28-3 Michigan State
- 18-2/29-2 Michigan
- 14-6/21-10 Purdue
- 13-7/22-9 Maryland
- 12-8/22-9 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker with IU and UW based on H2H2H
- 12-8/21-10 Indiana (second in H2H2H with UNL and UW)
- 12-8/20-11 Wisconsin
- 11-9/22-9 Iowa
- 8-12/18-13 Ohio State
- 6-14/15-16 Northwestern
- 5-15/15-16 Minnesota
- 4-16/8-23 Illinois (wins H2H tiebreaker over RU, no game in Picastaway)
- 4-16/11-19 Rutgers
- 2-18/9-22 Penn State
Thus, the match-ups at the BTT in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Minnesota vs #14 Penn State, 9pm, BTN
- #12 Illinois vs #13 Rutgers, 6:30pm, BTN
Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):
- #5 Nebraska vs MN/PSU, 3pm, BTN
- #6 Indiana vs IL/RU, 9:30pm, BTN
- #7 Wisconsin vs #10 Northwestern, 7pm, BTN
- #8 Iowa vs #9 Ohio State, 12:30pm, BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan State vs IA/tOSU, 12:30pm, BTN
- #2 Michigan vs UW/NU, 7pm, BTN
- #3 Purdue vs IU/IL/RU, 9:30pm, BTN
- #4 Maryland vs UNL/MN/PSU, 3pm, BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- MSU/IA/tOSU vs UMD/UNL/MN/PSU, 1pm, CBS
- M/UW/NU vs PU/IU/IL/RU, 3:30pm, CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- MSU/IA/tOSU/UMD/UNL/MN/PSU vs M/UW/NU/PU/IU/IL/RU, 3:30pm, CBS
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It will be interesting to see how M responds tonight at home against Minnie.
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75% of Ohio State fans now voting that the team misses the NCAA tourney. ESPN has them squarely on the bubble. That Rutgers loss will keep them out of the Big dance.
They are currently 2-4/12-5 with 14 left to play. Here is a rough ranking of remaining games from most likely to win (#1) to most likely to lose (#14):
- vs Rutgers
- vs Illinois
- vs Northwestern
- vs Penn State
- at Northwestern
- vs Iowa
- vs Wisconsin
- vs Purdue
- at Indiana
- at Nebraska
- at Purdue
- at Maryland
- at Michigan
- at Michigan State
As I see it, the Buckeyes need to go at least 7-7 to even be a serious bubble team heading into the BTT. Even then, at 9-11/19-12 I think they'd have a substantial amount of work to do in Chicago.
Part of the problem, as I see it, for the Buckeyes is that the last six games I have listed are all in the "almost no chance" category. Those are six road games against tournament teams. To really feel good about their chances the Buckeyes need to win all seven home games and win in Evanston. Then they'd finish 10-10/29-11 and probably be in good shape.
If the Buckeyes lose tomorrow night at home to Purdue then they'll need to be perfect in games they should win AND pick up a very unlikely road win against a tournament team. I just can't see it happening without beating Purdue tomorrow.
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I don't think so. They recently lost at home to Northwestern. If you look at it, they have two big upset home wins. One was over Nebraska and the other over Ohio State. In both cases their victims were coming off of hard-fought home losses to your Spartans then traveling to New Jersey to play the Scarlet Knights on short rest. It happens.
Nebraska wasn't on short rest against Rutgers.
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Nebraska wasn't on short rest against Rutgers.
Fair point. I guess technically Ohio State wasn't either. Ohio State lost at home to MSU on Saturday, January 5 then lost at Rutgers on Wednesday, January 9. Nebraska lost at home to MSU on Thursday, January 17 then lost at Rutgers on Monday, January 21.
So my use of the term "short rest" was incorrect. Still, both teams lost hard-fought home games against a very good team, then traveled to New Jersey four days later and lost a game they should have won.
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Fair point. I guess technically Ohio State wasn't either. Ohio State lost at home to MSU on Saturday, January 5 then lost at Rutgers on Wednesday, January 9. Nebraska lost at home to MSU on Thursday, January 17 then lost at Rutgers on Monday, January 21.
So my use of the term "short rest" was incorrect. Still, both teams lost hard-fought home games against a very good team, then traveled to New Jersey four days later and lost a game they should have won.
I think the fact that you are coming up with reasons why those were legit losses, and not big upsets, considering where Rutgers has been, alone is enough for me to say that they must be playing better.
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I think both Rutgers and Illinois are playing better than they are being credited for lately.
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Massey composite rankings (59 rankings), with last week in parenthesis (remember it does not factor in last night's results)...
- Virginia (2)
- Duke (1)
- Tennessee (3)
- MICHIGAN STATE (4)
- Gonzaga (5)
- MICHIGAN (6)
- Kansas (7)
- North Carolina (10)
- Virginia Tech (9)
- MARYLAND (17)
- Kentucky (16)
- Nevada (11)
- Texas Tech (8)
- PURDUE (19)
- Louisville (22)
- Houston (20)
- Buffalo (14)
- Auburn (12)
- Iowa State (-)
- LSU (-)
- NEBRASKA (18)
- Marquette (23)
- IOWA (-)
- Mississippi State (-)
- Villanova (21)
- 26. Wisconsin (26)
- 36. Indiana (27)
- 37. Ohio State (33)
- 56. Minnesota (42)
- 65. Northwestern (60)
- 85. Penn State (79)
- 125. Illinois (129)
- 132. Rutgers (104)
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I think the fact that you are coming up with reasons why those were legit losses, and not big upsets, considering where Rutgers has been, alone is enough for me to say that they must be playing better.
UNL has not changed their stripes..... Under Miles they can play with or beat a top 25 team, but also lose to UNO... or Rutgers.
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We get home, hopefully get 2 at home, and I wouldn't be surprised to drop the next 2 at Wiscy and Neb.
Don't forget that Saturday's "home" game vs. Illinois is at Madison Square Garden...
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Don't forget that Saturday's "home" game vs. Illinois is at Madison Square Garden...
If Illinois can't put 5000 asses in Chicago's United Center, I wouldn't worry about them having any advantage in New York.
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Don't forget that Saturday's "home" game vs. Illinois is at Madison Square Garden...
That's right JT. Forgot.
MSG dubbed as Maryland's home away from home.
We'll see.
I still don't see this team as a "tier 2" given the youth, and the grind of the season.
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UNL has not changed their stripes..... Under Miles they can play with or beat a top 25 team, but also lose to UNO... or Rutgers.
play well at home, play like crap on the road
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Doesn't the conference do a basketball/hockey doubleheader there every year?
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Doesn't the conference do a basketball/hockey doubleheader there every year?
I think so. But this one makes no sense at all. Maryland/Illinois for hoops and Michigan/Penn State for hockey. Ummm… who plans this crap? If anything, they should have the hockey schools also play hoops on the same day. You might get some more interest that way. Not sure how much though. NYC is an expensive trip for a regular game.
The first year had UM and PSU playing both sports. Then it was UW playing both (BB against RU and H against OSU). Last year was Minnie playing both (BB against OSU and H against MSU). This year makes no sense at all.
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I think so. But this one makes no sense at all. Maryland/Illinois for hoops and Michigan/Penn State for hockey. Ummm… who plans this crap? If anything, they should have the hockey schools also play hoops on the same day. You might get some more interest that way. Not sure how much though. NYC is an expensive trip for a regular game.
The first year had UM and PSU playing both sports. Then it was UW playing both (BB against RU and H against OSU). Last year was Minnie playing both (BB against OSU and H against MSU). This year makes no sense at all.
We've said that before, but then it only forces the hockey schools to have to put up with the BS
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Iowa offering free parking to everyone and free admission to all students for the MSU game on Thursday night, to try and get a big home atmosphere.
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Massey composite rankings (59 rankings), with last week in parenthesis (remember it does not factor in last night's results)...
- 4 MICHIGAN STATE (4)
- 6 MICHIGAN (6)
- 10 MARYLAND
- 14 Purdue
- 21 NEBRASKA (18)
- 23 IOWA (-)26. Wisconsin (26)
- 36. Indiana (27)
- 37. Ohio State (33)
- 56. Minnesota (42)
- 65. Northwestern (60)
- 85. Penn State (79)
- 125. Illinois (129)
- 132. Rutgers (104)
Compared to our current tiers:
- 4 MSU, 6 M
- n/a
- 10 Maryland, 14 Purdue, 21 Nebraska
- 23 Iowa, 26 Wisconsin, 36 Indiana
- 37 Ohio State
- 56 Minnesota, 65 Northwestern, 85 Penn State
- 125 Illinois, 132 Rutgers
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Compared to our current tiers:
- 4 MSU, 6 M
- n/a
- 10 Maryland, 14 Purdue, 21 Nebraska
- 23 Iowa, 26 Wisconsin, 36 Indiana
- 37 Ohio State
- 56 Minnesota, 65 Northwestern, 85 Penn State
- 125 Illinois, 132 Rutgers
Almost looks like dropping UNL and IU makes sense, based on those rankings, and abolish tier 2.
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Almost looks like dropping NU and IU makes sense, based on those rankings, and abolish tier 2.
I assume that by "NU" you meant Nebraska? I almost always use "UNL" when referring to them on this board to avoid confusion with Northwestern.
It does look like you are correct but Indiana is at Northwestern tonight so I figure we'll wait and see what happens because in their current spot (tier-4) they should win but if we drop them into the Ohio State tier (tier-5), they should lose. If Indiana does lose tonight in Evanston then I'll drop them. If they win, then no.
Nebraska is another matter. They have a positive upset (winning at Indiana) but that will no longer be an upset if we drop Indiana. Then they have two negative upsets (losing at MN and losing at Rutgers). Both would still be upsets unless we dropped them at least two tiers which obviously isn't warranted at this point. I think we'll wait and see. That said, this is their entire remaining schedule:
- vs tOSU Saturday (should win either way)
- vs UW 1/29 (should win either way)
- at IL 2/2 (should win either way)
- vs UMD 2/6 (should win either way)
- at PU 2/9 (should lose either way)
- vs MN 2/13 (should win either way)
- vs NU 2/16 (should win either way)
- at PSU 2/19 (should win either way)
- at M 2/28 (should lose either way)
- at MSU 3/5 (should lose either way)
- vs Iowa 3/10 (whould win either way)
Note that for projection purposes it makes no difference whether the Cornhuskers are in tier-2 or tier-3. The only game it makes any difference for is at Ohio State and the Cornhuskers do not play in Columbus this year.
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I think you mean, UNL
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I think you mean, UNL
Correct. Thinking about Northwestern while typing, since UW plays them this week..
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It does look like you are correct but Indiana is at Northwestern tonight so I figure we'll wait and see what happens because in their current spot (tier-4) they should win but if we drop them into the Ohio State tier (tier-5), they should lose. If Indiana does lose tonight in Evanston then I'll drop them. If they win, then no.
The difference for Indiana between tier-4 (where they are now) and tier-5 (proposed change) is the following games:
- vs PU 2/19
- vs UMD (not played this year)
- vs UNL L 66-51
- at MN 2/16
- at NU (tonight)
- at PSU W 64-62
So that is six potential games but one is not played. The Hoosiers are 1-1 in the two played so far with one more tonight and the last two in mid-February.
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Wouldn't be surprised if it's happening right now...
Baltimore Sun: Former Terps star McMillen predicts 'major gambling scandal' tied to college sports betting in future.
https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-tom-mcmillen-sports-betting-20190122-story.html
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LOL
I swear, it's all of us UMD fans! Not just me....
I knew Michigan State was good, and the 2 day deal was crap, so I expected a loss, but I swear, that Dook hate runs deep!
https://twitter.com/BryanNehman/status/1087520419064803329?s=19
https://twitter.com/BiduKoroma/status/1087679877568974849?s=19
https://twitter.com/BiduKoroma/status/1087530959296233472?s=19
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Gophers gave Michigan a game!
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Another very frustrating game, but I'll take the win, despite the near-choke. The defense wasn't great (Minnesota's stupid turnovers made it look better than it is) but good enough, despite allowing some open 3s and committing some dumb fouls. I can't imagine how maddening it is to be a Minnesota basketball fan and have to watch such awful offense.
Offensively, they didn't turn it over much tonight, but that's the only big positive, except that Brazdeikis finally had a big second half. Poole and Matthews still had awful games, Simpson was shooting too much, and only Teske played a complete game, once again. Brooks played his best game in awhile, if only by default, so hopefully he'll be more aggressive in the future. Minnesota is a big but not great defensive team, and Michigan was getting its share of open looks but just didn't see them or missed too many of them.
The return game to Indiana is next. Hopefully they'll be focused on shooting drills until then.
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Wouldn't be surprised if it's happening right now...
Baltimore Sun: Former Terps star McMillen predicts 'major gambling scandal' tied to college sports betting in future.
https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-tom-mcmillen-sports-betting-20190122-story.html
We live in a national/global world. Gambling is big enough in Nevada that it could affect any NCAA team in the country. He's all worried that if MD legalizes it, it will change something. Nope. Won't change a thing.
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We live in a national/global world. Gambling is big enough in Nevada that it could affect any NCAA team in the country. He's all worried that if MD legalizes it, it will change something. Nope. Won't change a thing.
Because it's already happening.
Crooks behind the scenes influencing outcomes.
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Based on Indiana's loss I went ahead and moved them down into tier-5. The updated tiers are:
- MSU, M
- BLANK
- PU, UMD, UNL
- UW, IA
- IU, tOSU
- NU, MN, PSU
- IL, RU
All teams except Nebraska and Minnesota are within +/-1 on upsets. Nebraska is at -2 but the problem is that both of their upset losses would be upsets even if we dropped them a tier. Minnesota is at +2 and similarly, even if we elevated them a tier the two upset wins would still be upsets.
Wisconsin is a bit of an oddity with two positive and two negative upsets. I guess they are just an inconsistent team? The two positive upsets are a win in Iowa City and a win over Michigan. The two negative upsets are home losses to Minnesota and Purdue.
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Well poop. Kyle Young for the Bucks out for a while with a stress fracture in his leg. Just when I was convincing myself the Bucks could get back in this thing...
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UNL is a 4... They will win games they shouldn't and lose games they should win. They'll be hard to quantify. But my sense is this team is inconsistent and not playing as a a unit. Feels like a 4 to me. jmo
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Yeesh, OSU tailspin continuing
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Yeesh, OSU tailspin continuing
The losing streak is now at five and about to be seven. The NCAA tournament is, out of the question barring a miracle. The question now is whether or not this team can make the NIT.
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Pretty fun game, and actually very encouraging for the future of the team, if not this year. But they play hard and actually made some shots. Refs seem like Kaleb Wesson has a target though. That is frustrating, because they call a lot of tic tac fouls on him but aren't calling the times he's getting fouled, which is a bad combo.
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The losing streak is now at five and about to be seven. The NCAA tournament is, out of the question barring a miracle. The question now is whether or not this team can make the NIT.
They actually bounced back decently. I posted that during the 2#-1 run, when it looked like they might get run out of their own gym.
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They actually bounced back decently. I posted that during the 2#-1 run, when it looked like they might get run out of their own gym.
Regardless of the semi-competitive second half, the Buckeyes have lost five straight (about to be seven) and are now 2-5/12-6 (about to be 2-7/12-8).
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The Nit is probably a stretch. Barely eligible wasn't good enough in Thad's final year.
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If you hate basketball, you may enjoy UW-Illinois, because the officials are allowing very little of it to be played
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yup, going to bed
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If you hate basketball, you may enjoy UW-Illinois, because the officials are allowing very little of it to be played
This was truly a disaster of a game.
UW won, and needed to win, as it’s the fourth-easiest game left. Getting to 13-6, 5-3 is good. Now need to hold off NW.
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This was truly a disaster of a game.
UW won, and needed to win, as it’s the fourth-easiest game left. Getting to 13-6, 5-3 is good. Now need to hold off NW.
That was a very hard stretch to watch. I think UW had 10 fouls only 5-6 minutes into H2. Terrible. But, as you said, they won and they needed to. Road wins are precious so I'll take it.
Iverson sure bounced back last night. Great game for him. Message received, apparently.
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Big stretch for MSU (and their opponents) over the next few days. Road games @Iowa and @Purdue. Sagarin has MSU as 5.9 favorites in Iowa City, and 2.85 point favorites in West Lafayette.
But Iowa is 10-2 in their last 12, with the only losses being road losses to MSU and Purdue. Purdue is 7-1 in their last 8, with the only loss being @MSU, with the only game being decided by single digits [sadly including the MSU loss] being the road win over Wisconsin.
ESPN say that MSU win likelihood is 67.2% at Iowa, and 52.8% at Purdue. That means that the odds of the below are the following:
- Win both: 35.5%
- Lose both: 15.5%
- Split: 49% (17.3% for L @Iowa and W @Purdue, 31.7% for W @Iowa / L @Purdue)
Obviously as a Purdue fan I'm hoping Purdue wins on Sunday regardless of what Iowa does, but I think this is shaping up to be a HUGE couple of days for the entire B1G race.
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Big stretch for MSU (and their opponents) over the next few days. Road games @Iowa and @Purdue. Sagarin has MSU as 5.9 favorites in Iowa City, and 2.85 point favorites in West Lafayette.
But Iowa is 10-2 in their last 12, with the only losses being road losses to MSU and Purdue. Purdue is 7-1 in their last 8, with the only loss being @MSU, with the only game being decided by single digits [sadly including the MSU loss] being the road win over Wisconsin.
ESPN say that MSU win likelihood is 67.2% at Iowa, and 52.8% at Purdue. That means that the odds of the below are the following:
- Win both: 35.5%
- Lose both: 15.5%
- Split: 49% (17.3% for L @Iowa and W @Purdue, 31.7% for W @Iowa / L @Purdue)
Obviously as a Purdue fan I'm hoping Purdue wins on Sunday regardless of what Iowa does, but I think this is shaping up to be a HUGE couple of days for the entire B1G race.
I like 10-3 in their last 13 much better.
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Yeah, the Big East knew how to schedule their teams into the tourney. The Big Ten seems to care about nothing but squishing as many games into as many nights as possible. The Big East ensured their top teams never double played each other. The Big Ten has their highest rated team playing 3 games in one week, two on the road, all against top 24 KenPom teams.
Maryland is picking up steam...and has to play road games Friday-Monday.
How is any of this good for the conference?
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Yeah, the Big East knew how to schedule their teams into the tourney. The Big Ten seems to care about nothing but squishing as many games into as many nights as possible. The Big East ensured their top teams never double played each other. The Big Ten has their highest rated team playing 3 games in one week, two on the road, all against top 24 KenPom teams.
Maryland is picking up steam...and has to play road games Friday-Monday.
How is any of this good for the conference?
It's not good for the conference and it's not good for the kids.
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All about the $$$$
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It's good for FOX
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All about the $$$$
Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner!
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What I wonder a little though is, why now? ESPN has held rights to several conferences for years, and they aren't shy about doing what makes the most financial sense, and they still haven't moved any of their college properties to Friday night. They've had their NBA Friday nights for like 15 years now, but if college games put up decent numbers on Friday nights, you'd think they'd do it, but they don't. So what is FOX chasing? Do they just have fewer properties? They have NFL and MLB and obviously they aren't going to bury the NFL on Friday, and MLB doesn't conflict with basketball, but I still wonder just how good the number is compared to doing regular FS1 doubleheaders through the week.
If I was allowed to do it, I would just put two games each on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (with a bye), then 5 on Saturday and 2 on Sunday. The only short turnaround would be Thursday-Saturday, and ensuring that if a team did it they were at home on Saturday doesn't seem too hard to do.
You could maybe even get around that issue entirely by establishing travel partners like the Pac 12 does: Maryland-Rutgers; PSU-OSU; UM-MSU; IU-PU, Illinois-NW; UW-Minnesota; Iowa-Nebraska. Then the Thursday pairing would also be the Sunday pairing, but flipped. Am I missing something here?
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the SEC, the Big East and the Big 12 don't have games tonight
but, the PAC-12 has 6 games?
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the SEC, the Big East and the Big 12 don't have games tonight
but, the PAC-12 has 6 games?
Pac 12 used to play exclusively Thursday-Saturday with the travel partners. Not sure if that's still the case. Point was with the large area, teams could make one trip to Washington, play both schools in 3 days, or to Arizona, etc, and not make multiple trips or have short turnaround between trips.
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logical
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Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday only.
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I guess it's on Purdue to beat MSU, then...
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I guess it's on Purdue to beat MSU, then...
Should be a fun game. At Purdue is tough and they are playing well. MSU has prolly been the best team this month in the nation from what Ive seen though, Cant wait to see if they can win all three games this week.
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I would have signed up for 2 of 3 this week, so honestly, Purdue is gravy. I don't expect anything in the House of Boo.
Iowa made this their jihad game. Free tickets for students, free parking for everyone. Pack the house. They threw a hell of a first punch, then MSU knocked them flat out.
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I would have signed up for 2 of 3 this week, so honestly, Purdue is gravy. I don't expect anything in the House of Boo.
Iowa made this their jihad game. Free tickets for students, free parking for everyone. Pack the house. They threw a hell of a first punch, then MSU knocked them flat out.
Same. I don’t think we pull it off Sunday. Such a tough stretch and a tough place to play. I don’t think we hold Edwards to the same type of performance.
Hope I’m wrong.
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What I wonder a little though is, why now? ESPN has held rights to several conferences for years, and they aren't shy about doing what makes the most financial sense, and they still haven't moved any of their college properties to Friday night. They've had their NBA Friday nights for like 15 years now, but if college games put up decent numbers on Friday nights, you'd think they'd do it, but they don't. So what is FOX chasing? Do they just have fewer properties? They have NFL and MLB and obviously they aren't going to bury the NFL on Friday, and MLB doesn't conflict with basketball, but I still wonder just how good the number is compared to doing regular FS1 doubleheaders through the week.
If I was allowed to do it, I would just put two games each on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (with a bye), then 5 on Saturday and 2 on Sunday. The only short turnaround would be Thursday-Saturday, and ensuring that if a team did it they were at home on Saturday doesn't seem too hard to do.
You could maybe even get around that issue entirely by establishing travel partners like the Pac 12 does: Maryland-Rutgers; PSU-OSU; UM-MSU; IU-PU, Illinois-NW; UW-Minnesota; Iowa-Nebraska. Then the Thursday pairing would also be the Sunday pairing, but flipped. Am I missing something here?
Fox is liking Friday games and more Sunday games, plus going on Big Fox in addition to FS1. Also filling out the BTN schedule.
I’ll never forget watching Wisconsin get upset by Rutgers at 7 pm on a Sunday
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I think we can stick a fork in my Buckeyes. They are now 2-5/12-6 with 13 games left to play. I would group those 13 into four categories:
- 4 games the Buckeyes should definitely win: vRU, vIL, vNU, vPSU
- 3 games the Buckeyes have a decent chance to win: vIA, @NU, vUW
- 4 games the Buckeyes are a longshot to win: @UNL, @IU, @UMD, @PU
- 2 games the Buckeyes would need a miracle to win: @M, @msu
IMHO, the Buckeyes need to get to at least 9-11/19-12 to have a serious chance (they'd still have a LOT of work to do in Chicago). Getting to 10-10/20-11 would probably put them on the right side of the bubble, but they still might get knocked out by a bad loss in Chicago. Getting to 11-9/21-10 would make them a lock.
- To get to even having a chance they would need to win all seven games in the first two categories.
- To get onto the bubble they would need to win all seven games in the first two categories plus one game from the second two categories.
- To lock in an NCAA bid the Buckeyes would need to win all seven games in the first two categories and two big upsets.
I just can't see it happening.
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https://twitter.com/HowStark/status/1088602581792948224
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that one got Fran going, but that's easy to do
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that one got Fran going, but that's easy to do
I feel like his antics hurt his teams chances with the refs. When you lose your mind on the first thing you disagree with, and keep making a fool of yourself for 2 hours, you don't exactly warm yourself to the officials.
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I feel like his antics hurt his teams chances with the refs. When you lose your mind on the first thing you disagree with, and keep making a fool of yourself for 2 hours, you don't exactly warm yourself to the officials.
Exactamundo.
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around here, we call it, "the Pelini affect"
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around here, we call it, "the Pelini affect"
Later in his career, Bo Ryan was known for his antics (not nearly as much as Fran) and ranting at the refs, but he "earned" some of it with what his teams did on the court. Fran doesn't have that respect.
I remember how Schembechler used to go apes shit on the sidelines. He earned that. Pelini didn't.
There are many examples of this.
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many of my Hawk fan friends thought Pelini was deplorable.
When I tell them that Fran is very similar they are in denial.
I just smile...........
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only 4 games saturday
2 on at 11am?
what will BTN be showing at 6 or 7pm that would draw more eyeballs than Men's hoops?
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only 4 games saturday
2 on at 11am?
what will BTN be showing at 6 or 7pm that would draw more eyeballs than Men's hoops?
Isn't Saturday the MSG basketball/hockey showcase? I'm assuming they'll show the MSG hockey game.
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Isn't Saturday the MSG basketball/hockey showcase? I'm assuming they'll show the MSG hockey game.
BTN will kill it in the State College and Ann Arbor markets. YUGE!!
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I mean, in fairness, it's not like they are not showing basketball games to show the hockey game. CBS took their game this weekend, FS1 is showing one each day, and BTN has the other three, and they are showing all of them as a triple header. It's not like one is going unaired to show hockey. To be honest, considering the Big Ten broke up two conferences to do this, then added Notre Dame, just to give BTN content, I'm surprised they don't show more hockey than they do. I'm extra surprised we haven't seen more games moved off the traditional Friday-Saturday schedule.
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I mean, in fairness, it's not like they are not showing basketball games to show the hockey game. CBS took their game this weekend, FS1 is showing one each day, and BTN has the other three, and they are showing all of them as a triple header. It's not like one is going unaired to show hockey. To be honest, considering the Big Ten broke up two conferences to do this, then added Notre Dame, just to give BTN content, I'm surprised they don't show more hockey than they do. I'm extra surprised we haven't seen more games moved off the traditional Friday-Saturday schedule.
Yep, I was thinking about this as well. It's coming.
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For however damaging recent BTN/Fox contracts have been to certain sports, none has been hit as hard as hockey.
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For however damaging recent BTN/Fox contracts have been to certain sports, none has been hit as hard as hockey.
This is correct, big time. I saw more UW hockey on TV 15 years ago than I do today.
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Depends on where you live. In market, yes, much less, out of market, much more. Pre-BTN showing hockey I saw 3 MSU games while living in Pittsburgh, the Frozen Four and national title game in 2007, and one random game against I think Notre Dame on ESPNU. They've been on BTN now for 5 of their past 6 games.
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Between BTN and FSN, Michigan hockey was heavily featured in out-of-market cable broadcasts from around 2007 through until recently (around 2-4 years ago but I have a hard time remembering the inflection point).
In all of my Hershey, PA time and half of my time in Bloomington, IN, I caught most hockey games on "basic cable + sports package." That seemed revolutionary. But now it's gone. There's been at least 1 Michigan game viewable in Indiana so far this year. But I highly doubt as many as 3 made their way this far. My suspicion is that this correlates to the renegotiation with Fox a few years back.
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Weird, the Pittsburgh FSN affiliate never picked up any of those FSD hockey broadcasts.
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Weird, the Pittsburgh FSN affiliate never picked up any of those FSD hockey broadcasts.
Did you leave the state before or after BTN's arrival? Did you have a "sports package" in addition to standard cable? I didn't leave Michigan until after BTN showed up (perhaps incentivizing more FSN coverage to compete), and my access often required my sports package.
Now, even with a package add-on, watching the games is impossible. Only "BTN-Plus" enables watching, and I reject that on principle (the added cost, the inconvenience of live streaming to a laptop, and the glitchy product).
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BTN-Plus is your culprit
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Did you leave the state before or after BTN's arrival? Did you have a "sports package" in addition to standard cable? I didn't leave Michigan until after BTN showed up (perhaps incentivizing more FSN coverage to compete), and my access often required my sports package.
Now, even with a package add-on, watching the games is impossible. Only "BTN-Plus" enables watching, and I reject that on principle (the added cost, the inconvenience of live streaming to a laptop, and the glitchy product).
I left one year before BTN, and we had the sports package for a couple years, just based on the deal they were running. We had a bunch of random networks, but none of the regional Fox networks. MSU has had probably 7-8 games this year just on regular BTN, as I've said, 5 of their 6 games over the past 3 weekends have been on.
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Lots of UW hockey is on Fox Sports Wisconsin, but we can no longer get that in any package with Comcast. I can stream it for free through BTN, so long they are not "plus" channel games. I might do that tonight. I have a pretty easy setup to hook my computer up to the TV at home, for both sound and video.
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That tweet made my day ELA
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Vis-a-vis the tiers:
By my quick count, thus far there have been 57 B1G games and nine of those have been "upsets". I'm defining "upsets" here as games in which our projected winner lost. That is roughly one upset in every six games. This weekend (Fri-Sun) we have the following seven games (with projected winner):
- Michigan at Indiana - Michigan
- Ohio State at Nebraska - Nebraska
- Northwestern at Wisconsin - Wisconsin
- Illinois at Maryland - Maryland
- Rutgers at Penn State - Penn State
- Michigan State at Purdue - Michigan State
- Iowa at Minnesota - Iowa
Note that we expect the home team to win four and the road team to win the three bolded games.
There are seven games this weekend so experience suggests that there will be one or two upsets. Then I'll post updated projections on Monday.
It should be a fun weekend. The top two teams are both playing road games in tough environments that they could plausibly lose, Ohio State has a near-must-win in Lincoln, Wisconsin needs to avoid a let-down, etc.
One game that probably doesn't interest many people but that I find interesting is Rutgers at Penn State. I expect Penn State to win and I hope for their sake that they do. Penn State got absolutely hosed by the schedule. We project that they would go 6-20 in a full double-round-robin 26 game schedule. However, our teams each miss six games and somehow PSU misses half of their projected wins (vMN, vNU, vtOSU) such that their projection dropped to only 3-17, then they lost one of their thee remaining projected wins (vIU) so now we project them to finish dead last in the B1G at just 2-18 despite the fact that we consider them to be better than both Rutgers and Illinois. If they lose at home to Rutgers their projection will drop to a woeful 1-19 and they'll be nearly a lock for the #14 basement seed in the BTT.
On the subject of schedule, at this point Northwestern appears to have the most favorable schedule (+.069) and Penn State the least favorable (-.081). All teams are within +/-0.015 except:
- +.069 Northwestern
- +.065 Ohio State
- +.046 Illinois
- -.031 Minnesota
- -.042 Maryland
- -.081 Penn State
For the eight teams within +/-0.015 the schedule doesn't really impact them much, that is just a rounding issue*. Northwestern, Ohio State, and Illinois all get a boost while Penn State, Maryland, and Minnesota all get dinged.
*Explaining the rounding issue:
The calculation here is Projected Record for the 20 games actually played minus Projected Record for a full 26-game double-round-robin schedule. Looking at Purdue, for example, we project that the Boilermakers would go 18-8 on a 26-game double-round robin. They miss six of those 26 games. Mathematically, their schedule would be exactly fair if they missed 4.15 wins and 1.85 losses. Obviously that isn't possible and Purdue actually misses four projected wins and two projected losses. They are theoretically helped by the schedule to the tune of 0.15 games. That is just rounding.
Now look at Penn State:
We project that the Nittany Lions would go 6-20 on a 26-game double-round-robin. Mathematically they should miss 1.38 wins and 4.62 losses. They actually miss three projected wins and three projected losses. They are hurt by the schedule to the tune of 1.62 games.
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They said on the radio that this is OSU's longest losing streak in 20 years.
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They said on the radio that this is OSU's longest losing streak in 20 years.
Ugh! To be fair, part of it is scheduling. The three home games were all against high-end teams (MSU, UMD, PU) and road games are always going to be tough. That said, the steak is at five and barring a surprise in Lincoln tomorrow or a miracle in Ann Arbor on Tuesday it will be seven before it ends.
The Rutgers game is the one that really bothers me. Three of the other four (MSU, UMD, PU) were against teams that will likely be high seeds in the NCAA tournament and the fourth (Iowa) was against a likely tournament team. Losses always suck but those losses aren't THAT bad and they aren't terribly damaging. The Rutgers loss is crippling in two ways:
- Win Volume: The team is now in a situation where they need to, at a minimum, win every game that they are favored in and they'll still probably need an upset or two somewhere along the way to get into the NCAA Tournament.
- Bad Loss: No matter how you slice it, that RU loss is a "bad loss". That hurts because we really need a "good win" to compensate.
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Lots of UW hockey is on Fox Sports Wisconsin, but we can no longer get that in any package with Comcast. I can stream it for free through BTN, so long they are not "plus" channel games. I might do that tonight. I have a pretty easy setup to hook my computer up to the TV at home, for both sound and video.
I have a similar setup (HDMI cord). A smart TV would make it even easier. But even with those things, which - however simple - are still extra steps beyond normal cable watching, BTN Plus is not a smooth streamer in my experience. I have a strong connection, too. Netflix and Hulu are smooth for me. But BTN Plus is choppy garbage, sometimes no better than going to ESPN gamecast to follow the time and score.
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Hmmm. BTN streams fine for me, no matter the device. I do have a Smart TV, but F it. Easier for me to just do what I know.
But, since Mrs. Wonderful is into DDD tonight (Guy Fieri - don't get any ideas), we may just skip the hockey. They kinda suck this year anyway.
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So is Archie on the hot seat at halftime? Team seems to just be getting worse.
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Hmmm. BTN streams fine for me, no matter the device. I do have a Smart TV, but F it. Easier for me to just do what I know.
But, since Mrs. Wonderful is into DDD tonight (Guy Fieri - don't get any ideas), we may just skip the hockey. They kinda suck this year anyway.
They've kinda sucked for a while now. Starting to lose a little patience with it. Had already lost patience with Eaves; was happy with the change. Granato's gotta get this thing going.
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So is Archie on the hot seat at halftime? Team seems to just be getting worse.
Been meaning to ask. Is Archie the problem here?? Or is it the kids who are left over from Thad who are not buying in?
UW was the first to find a highly rated OSU commit - DJ Carton. He signed in November. Oops??
Maybe he should have committed to Madison. Just sayin'.
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They've kinda sucked for a while now. Starting to lose a little patience with it. Had already lost patience with Eaves; was happy with the change. Granato's gotta get this thing going.
Maybe we should take it to the hockey thread? But yeah. I'm running out of steam with that program.
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So is Archie on the hot seat at halftime? Team seems to just be getting worse.
He doesn't give off good leader vibes. I'm sure he's been better than this and is having the worst time of his life, partially explaining the behavior, but his total lack of composure in bad times seems so toxic. He's not yelling to get in the minds of the refs, either. It's all reflexive and pointed at the players. He's cycling between standing, face full purple, then leaning way back in his chair, fully slouched, signaling "eff everything." Guy has lost it.
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He doesn't give off good leader vibes. I'm sure he's been better than this and is having the worst time of his life, partially explaining the behavior, but his total lack of composure in bad times seems so toxic. He's not yelling to get in the minds of the refs, either. It's all reflexive and pointed at the players. He's cycling between standing, face full purple, then leaning way back in his chair, fully slouched, signaling "eff everything." Guy has lost it.
This is exactly why I scoff at fans who want to see Greg Gard gone from Madison. Be careful what you wish for. You don't know what ya got until it's gone. Right??
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Been meaning to ask. Is Archie the problem here?? Or is it the kids who are left over from Thad who are not buying in?
UW was the first to find a highly rated OSU commit - DJ Carton. He signed in November. Oops??
Maybe he should have committed to Madison. Just sayin'.
Archie coaches Indiana. Chris coaches OSU. And no, buying in not an issue at all for OSU. Main issue is youth, only two guys on the team played for Matta.
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Archie coaches Indiana. Chris coaches OSU. And no, buying in not an issue at all for OSU. Main issue is youth, only two guys on the team played for Matta.
Badge crossed the streams.
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Badge crossed the streams.
Sure did. Old man brain combined with some Johnnie. It happens.
But the point still stands. Things are not good in either place right now. And yeah, I want Carton to transfer. :)
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Archie coaches Indiana. Chris coaches OSU. And no, buying in not an issue at all for OSU. Main issue is youth, only two guys on the team played for Matta.
Thanks for Potter though. All signs point to him being key for Big Red next season.
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mmm, the brown stuff. That's happening tonight.
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Been meaning to ask. Is Archie the problem here?? Or is it the kids who are left over from Thad who are not buying in?
UW was the first to find a highly rated OSU commit - DJ Carton. He signed in November. Oops??
Maybe he should have committed to Madison. Just sayin'.
Based on how this year has gone, I dunno.
UW has six of eight rotation players returning. Four will play the "guard" spots. There's a pair of starters who are at 31.1 minutes a game with two more years of eligibility. If I wanted to come in and play basketball, that's not where I'm going (this is a downside of all that UW stability, oh well).
Turning to more important things, this weekend's game is an odd one. UW should win as a double-digit favorite at home. There's a little worry because every game has some worry, but this is objectively the third-easiest game left. But then things get interesting.
After NW, UW will go to Neb as a slight underdog on the road. I don't expect a win, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. Then come a pair of what I'd call making hay games. They'll be solid favorites against Md in Madison and at Minnesota. The last game complicated the Gopher side of things. If UW wins one of those, it's at 15 wins with two more easy ones left and a bunch of other chances.
Then comes at Mich (likely loss) and MSU at home (projected as a 3-point loss, but Sparty is kinda rolling). If UW gets to 3-3 in the next six, I'll be more than happy. Anything better, ecstatic.
The stretch should also be interesting. PSU/Ill at home should be easy. At NW and Iowa at home both feel tricky, but at minimum 1-1 from that seems reasonable. Both at IU and at OSU seem like tossups, but who knows how we'll feel in late Feb?
Kenpom has them finishing 20-11. If they do that or better, I'll feel pretty good.
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Been meaning to ask. Is Archie the problem here?? Or is it the kids who are left over from Thad who are not buying in?
UW was the first to find a highly rated OSU commit - DJ Carton. He signed in November. Oops??
Maybe he should have committed to Madison. Just sayin'.
Conflating IU and OSU there
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I think OSU will be fine long term. They overachieved last year, and were going to have a bit of a drop this year, just the drop from an overachieving year makes it feel steeper. He's recruiting well, and I think he's a good coach.
The best recent hire is Chris Mack at Louisville. I said last year that if Izzo retired my first call would be to Mack at Xavier. Louisville hit a home run there IMO
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MSU-Iowa was the highest rated FS1 basketball game ever apparently
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More proof that Maryland's wins aren't that impressive.
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Thanks for Potter though. All signs point to him being key for Big Red next season.
He's a good player and I think will be a good fit for Wisconsin.
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MSU-Iowa was the highest rated FS1 basketball game ever apparently
and the most butts in seats at Carver this season
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Good first half for the Bucks, but second halves have been problematic
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Yeah, the Big East knew how to schedule their teams into the tourney. The Big Ten seems to care about nothing but squishing as many games into as many nights as possible. The Big East ensured their top teams never double played each other. The Big Ten has their highest rated team playing 3 games in one week, two on the road, all against top 24 KenPom teams.
Maryland is picking up steam...and has to play road games Friday-Monday.
How is any of this good for the conference?
Then have Maryland give up a home game to play a nonsensical game in NYC and lose. Screw Delany
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Bucks put together two good halves and actually win a game
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Then have Maryland give up a home game to play a nonsensical game in NYC and lose. Screw Delany
Nah. It's alright.
This exposes the youth and ridiculous expectations.
Maryland has not beaten a good team yet. The wins they've had, were close, and looking like mediocre teams the more we go into the season.
After the Virginia game with all the time to prepare and the Seton Hall game, I knew this team wasn't going to do great things especially with how young they are.
I can't remember the last time Turgeon beat a ranked team.
It's a Michigan Michigan State Big Ten season.
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Indiana is clearly not as good expected, but it was great to see Michigan finally get a big lead early, again, and then hold it. Hopefully they gained some confidence that will carry over to tougher games.
Ohio State looked dangerous today, so that should be tough, even at home, where Michigan has a 19-game win streak (tied with Tennessee for most among major conferences, and only Houston and Buffalo have longer streaks).
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Nah. It's alright.
This exposes the youth and ridiculous expectations.
Maryland has not beaten a good team yet. The wins they've had, were close, and looking like mediocre teams the more we go into the season.
After the Virginia game with all the time to prepare and the Seton Hall game, I knew this team wasn't going to do great things especially with how young they are.
I can't remember the last time Turgeon beat a ranked team.
It's a Michigan Michigan State Big Ten season.
What's your take on Purdue @ MD? Current Sagarin prediction system has MD about a 1 point home favorite.
I believe Purdue is now a much better team than the one that beat MD at home in December. But I was also assuming based on their wins and climb in the various rankings that MD had improved significantly as well.
You think MD will defend home court in that one?
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Nah. It's alright.
This exposes the youth and ridiculous expectations.
Maryland has not beaten a good team yet. The wins they've had, were close, and looking like mediocre teams the more we go into the season.
After the Virginia game with all the time to prepare and the Seton Hall game, I knew this team wasn't going to do great things especially with how young they are.
I can't remember the last time Turgeon beat a ranked team.
It's a Michigan Michigan State Big Ten season.
I can.
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I thought the issue was games against ranked teams outside College Park, and that the losing streak dates back to Gary Williams?
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Lol, end floor slapping in our lifetime!
https://twitter.com/bigtengeek/status/1089227879915896833?s=19
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dx3DpApVsAA4UOW.jpg)
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This is the typical meat grinder game with NU. Gard has yet to beat these guys in Madison. Yeesh.
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Things not looking up for WVU hoops
https://twitter.com/RGWNews/status/1088931267238944773?s=19
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Things not looking up for WVU hoops
https://twitter.com/RGWNews/status/1088931267238944773?s=19
How the hell does that happen in this day and age of airport security and scrutiny?
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How the hell does that happen in this day and age of airport security and scrutiny?
Huggins was probably out drinking with the pilots.
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Huggins was probably out drinking with the pilots.
Seems like it was a fake news account that started the story.
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I thought the issue was games against ranked teams outside College Park, and that the losing streak dates back to Gary Williams?
So, you're just being an ass, and you don't think that a young team playing back to back games with 2 days rest on the road and travel is an issue?
You've never advocated that a schedule has worked against your team?
FTR, did I not mention that even at home, with a year under their belts, that Maryland would likely lose to this year's Michigan State team?
I'm confused because I thought you were smart enough to know that this past weekend would be tough for any team, let alone one that is 5th youngest in division 1.
I guess it's your way of rubbing salt since Izzo was handed a easy win in a place that is ref friendly for the Spartans.
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Miles is really trying to get things going, but he can't get the wins
might be time for him to go
too bad, because he's a great guy
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Still love my Terps.
Good job, Illinois. That freshman (sorry, can't recall his name) is a player...
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How the hell does that happen in this day and age of airport security and scrutiny?
Ha ha, that reminds me of a bowl game for the Terrapins in the eighties where one player got on the wrong flight and barely made it in time to play. He said he knew something was wrong when "Everybody on the plane was speaking Venezualen."
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Big Ten a little drunk today?
UW defense seems good. Now three games with a chance to make some hay.
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So, you're just being an ass, and you don't think that a young team playing back to back games with 2 days rest on the road and travel is an issue?
You've never advocated that a schedule has worked against your team?
FTR, did I not mention that even at home, with a year under their belts, that Maryland would likely lose to this year's Michigan State team?
I'm confused because I thought you were smart enough to know that this past weekend would be tough for any team, let alone one that is 5th youngest in division 1.
I guess it's your way of rubbing salt since Izzo was handed a easy win in a place that is ref friendly for the Spartans.
What the hell are you talking about? Badge said he remembered Maryland beating a ranked Wisconsin team, and I was pointing out I believed the stat they kept bringing up was road losses to ranked teams, not to all ranked teams. Take a deep breath there buddy
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Penn States offense is the basketball equivalent of MSU football. Just painful to watch them try an operate, and makes the whole vastly less than the sum of it's parts.
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What the hell are you talking about? Badge said he remembered Maryland beating a ranked Wisconsin team, and I was pointing out I believed the stat they kept bringing up was road losses to ranked teams, not to all ranked teams. Take a deep breath there buddy
My apologies ELA.
Given your past snarkiness, I thought you were making it out to be excuses.
MSG was supposed to be "home away from home", and even though we out represented Illinois, we still ended up losing.
Last time we met they were 13th and beat us, funny enough.
I guess we should just get prepared for the typical Maryland slide.
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Could be that the young kids are just hitting a wall??
How many people showed up to MSG today?
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Pat Chambers done?
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Isaac Copeland out for the year.
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Projections went to hell today.
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Based on Indiana's loss I went ahead and moved them down into tier-5. The updated tiers are:
- MSU, M
- BLANK
- PU, UMD, UNL
- UW, IA
- IU, tOSU
- NU, MN, PSU
- IL, RU
All teams except Nebraska and Minnesota are within +/-1 on upsets. Nebraska is at -2 but the problem is that both of their upset losses would be upsets even if we dropped them a tier. Minnesota is at +2 and similarly, even if we elevated them a tier the two upset wins would still be upsets.
Wisconsin is a bit of an oddity with two positive and two negative upsets. I guess they are just an inconsistent team? The two positive upsets are a win in Iowa City and a win over Michigan. The two negative upsets are home losses to Minnesota and Purdue.
Recommend there no longer be a blank. Also recommend putting UNL and UMD on alert.
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Projections went to hell today.
The conference started day drinking, never stopped.
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Could be that the young kids are just hitting a wall??
How many people showed up to MSG today?
If you're talking about Maryland, I'd say no.
Cowan and Fernando are the major players and they are still producing. Jalen Smith had the first 7 points and many rebounds. Made a 3 as well.
Now, Ayala looked lost today.
Morris and he had so many turnovers today it was maddening. Morris isn't known for his offense though.
Illinois' bench was apparently better than Maryland's.
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bummer, Huskers done
stick a fork in 'em
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bummer, Huskers done
stick a fork in 'em
I swear, they’re gonna win Tuesday and that will irk me.
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well, they will be motivated after the loss and the loss of Copeland
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Ugh, Ahrens back out after tweaking his back going for a loose ball at Iowa. Langford still out.
Oh well, I would have signed up for a 2-1 week in a heartbeat
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No legs, no surprise
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Oh well, thanks Delany. Week off after this is clearly much needed.
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Thanks Jim!
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Time for trial by fire with Loyer and Kithier. The other guys are totally gassed. AbsoliAbso no shooting legs. At least 4 threes missed with nobody within 5 feet of them. They aren't winning this game. Get them some rest, get the freshmen some experience.
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Was worried with 2:00 left that we would allow an MSU run to go into halftime. Great way to not take the foot off the gas and finish the half strong.
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Was worried with 2:00 left that we would allow an MSU run to go into halftime. Great way to not take the foot off the gas and finish the half strong.
Based on what? Ward making a prayer three with the shot clock expiring?
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The team around Carsen is really growing up. Carsen is contributing well everywhere but the scoreboard, shooting 1 for 8 so far. Everyone else is picking up the slack, which has been improving consistently through January. But I was worried the competition level would slow that down.
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Based on what? Ward making a prayer three with the shot clock expiring?
Based on watching Purdue eat a banana, throw the peel on the ground in front of themselves, and then slip on it... Too many times.
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~???
It's like tournament time, all year long?
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I didn't catch much of the first half, but did notice how Purdue is picking up Winston right away on every inbounds pass. ELA is probably right that Sparty has lost its legs after a long week down two starters. Still, they're a transition team. And Purdue is forcing them into half-court offense, which really changes things for Izzo. That's been Yaklich's #1 strategy against him.
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Based on what? Ward making a prayer three with the shot clock expiring?
I mean, there’s always a worry a very good team will start playing well against your team.
Granted, you’d have needed another empty possession/MSU score or two.
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The team around Carsen is really growing up. Carsen is contributing well everywhere but the scoreboard, shooting 1 for 8 so far. Everyone else is picking up the slack, which has been improving consistently through January. But I was worried the competition level would slow that down.
McQuaid is shutting him down for the second time this year. That's literally the only positive thing MSU did that half.
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I didn't catch much of the first half, but did notice how Purdue is picking up Winston right away on every inbounds pass. ELA is probably right that Sparty has lost its legs after a long week down two starters. Still, they're a transition team. And Purdue is forcing them into half-court offense, which really changes things for Izzo. That's been Yaklich's #1 strategy against him.
That hasn't been a problem this year. Iowa did the same thing. Most good teams have followed that blueprint this year. MSU is just simply missing a ton of open three pointers, and Purdue is shooting 50% from deep and creating turnovers.
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Winston missing a pair of FTs, both short, tells you all you need to know
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Weird time in the conference.
3-4 good teams are in a bad way, depending on if you think OSU’s win at Neb snapped them out of it. But between OSU’s 1-5 run, Neb losing three in a row and one of its best players, IU with six losses in a row and that MD-Ill result, that group seems to be underperforming.
The question is how long these struggles last. Are the temporary? Longer term? Maybe I’m just thinking about my team and the road ahead. Are they still good teams, as Purdue was at 9-6? Or is something more wrong?
I still can’t get a read on Iowa or Minnesota. The Hawkeyes have a good record, but the numbers aren’t hyper bullish. Minnesota has some pretty nice wins, two not great losses and are projected to not finish well in conference. But I can’t truly buy the idea they’ll be a solid underdog at home vs UW
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That hasn't been a problem this year. Iowa did the same thing. Most good teams have followed that blueprint this year. MSU is just simply missing a ton of open three pointers, and Purdue is shooting 50% from deep and creating turnovers.
Maybe it hasn't been as much of a problem, but there's definitely a continuum (of being better in transition than half-court), and Iowa's defense probably isn't a good enough test of it. It's another reason why M-MSU will be fascinating, as those will be the games where MSU's transition will be hardest to keep up (as well as the hardest transition for Michigan to gunk up).
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More troubling going forward is how many hugely bad plays per game Goins is making. He's a former walk on, so anything exceeds expectations, but him really elevating his game on both ends was big at helping us defend stretch bigs. His shooting has been bad, too many defensive lapses, a number of lazy passes that turn into easy transition baskets.
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Winston missing a pair of FTs, both short, tells you all you need to know
Yep. There's more experience and depth on MSU's squad though. They should be able to chip away.
Little too early for the "overrated" chants though.
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Maybe it hasn't been as much of a problem, but there's definitely a continuum, and Iowa's defense probably isn't a good test of it. It's another reason why M-MSU will be fascinating.
I mean it's been zero problem all year. Honestly it wasn't even a problem in the first half either. MSU just missed 4-5 wide open threes. Sometimes you just miss shots
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I mean it's been zero problem all year. Honestly it wasn't even a problem in the first half either. MSU just missed 4-5 wide open threes. Sometimes you just miss shots
You think MSU is *equally* good in half-court as in transition? That's what I meant by continuum. That these two are not equal. Their transition game is always some amount more efficient ... when they can run it.
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My son keeps telling me that Matt Haarms looks like some famous Fortnite player.
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Why is Winston even still in?
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My son keeps telling me that Matt Haarms looks like some famous Fortnite player.
My son said he looks like "that gross guy for Michigan with the chicken pox."
That's been the only moment I was able to laugh.
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Gotta withstand this run.
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4 on Tillman with an already incredibly short bench is huge.
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-6 since they went to Hack an Eastern. Brilliant. When did Purdue make their last FG?
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MSU deserves to lose for that dumb strategy alone. Purdues offense hadn't done anything since before the under 12 timeout, and you decide to start intentionally fouling down 5 with 2:30 to go? I simply don't get it
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In general I'm a fan of using your 1 and 1 fouls on the other team's worst foul shooter. But didn't work that time
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In general I'm a fan of using your 1 and 1 fouls on the other team's worst foul shooter. But didn't work that time
With 3 minutes left and that team in a complete tail spin?
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With 3 minutes left and that team in a complete tail spin?
The numbers would say Purdue would get about 2 points in three possessions, which ain't bad. But they got 6
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The numbers would say Purdue would get about 2 points in three possessions, which ain't bad. But they got 6
They had made, I believe l, 1 FG, in 10 minutes
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MSU back down to #3 in KenPom, Purdue up to #7, ahead of UNC, Kentucky and Kansas, but don't tell ESPN.
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With 3 minutes left and that team in a complete tail spin?
Well, he'd know
https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1089634075458129921?s=19
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Well, he'd know
https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1089634075458129921?s=19
Yeah, it’s an interesting strategy. Basically, you dumped all this energy into a rally, any you think this could short circuit a counterpunch.
I know if UW was in the Purdue role and they started fouling Happ, I’d get real antsy,
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Why is Winston even still in?
So this seemed like an interesting one to go back to.
He played 39. MSU got back into the game, but didn’t win. He now has a week to recover.
Is it worth it or no?
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Impressive run by MSU in second half. Rebounding was the key to this win. Generally I think this game meant more to Purdue. Credit to McQuaid on his defense. Purdue giving itself a shot at the title with this winning streak, still a long way to go. Credit to Eastern for hitting those free throws to seal the game.
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So this seemed like an interesting one to go back to.
He played 39. MSU got back into the game, but didn’t win. He now has a week to recover.
Is it worth it or no?
Not sure how much the committee cares about such things, but cutting it from 23 to 4 at least should be significant. My guess is the 6 days before their next game is the only reason Izzo allowed him to give that comeback a go
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Neither Iowa or Minnesota playing a lick of defense.
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Maybe it hasn't been as much of a problem, but there's definitely a continuum (of being better in transition than half-court), and Iowa's defense probably isn't a good enough test of it. It's another reason why M-MSU will be fascinating, as those will be the games where MSU's transition will be hardest to keep up (as well as the hardest transition for Michigan to gunk up).
Thats an interesting idea but not one Im sure is right. I agree all things being equal when a team makes a basket UM would be set up best to stop them. Off misses though I have not seen anyone stop MSU from running. Both Iowa and Purdue best transition D was when they were scoring in the 1st half of those games. Once the MSU defense picked up thats fueled MSU best transition game.
In this way I think UM is in a worse position to stop the MSU transition game. The UM offense right now is simply middle of the road vs Purdue and Iowa who have the 2nd best offense in conference atm. I fully expect UM to be the best team at stopping MSU but I think MSU will get more chances to run vs of UM if their offense stays at this level. UM will be at another level though so it will be fun to see how it all shakes out
"The best defense is a great offense" really can hold a lot of weight vs MSU this year.
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One way or the other, we'll see the idea tested. Michigan tends not to try for offensive rebounds. Whether a shot is good or not, 3 or 4 guys are racing the other way before it hits the rim. It's hyper conservative.
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One way or the other, we'll see the idea tested. Michigan tends not to try for offensive rebounds. Whether a shot is good or not, 3 or 4 guys are racing the other way before it hits the rim. It's hyper conservative.
That's been how teams have played MSU for a solid decade+ now in conference. It's why I think MSUs rebounding margin is still so good even in years they aren't an elite rebounding team. I do think this is easily MSUs best half court offense since 2016 by a long shot. And that 2016 may have been Izzo's best half court offense ever.
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No doubt. But this is also Michigan's best defense in the same period, and the recent winning streak versus MSU has been partly built on winning in transition. It remains a strength v strength match-up in my mind.
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I wasn't disagreeing, I was just saying that wasn't a novel approach. It's been a large factor in MSUs defensive rebounding numbers
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Ah. And when I shared the observation, I wasn't claiming it was novel, either. Mostly meant to say that slowing the MSU transition is an important place to start. Assuming it's something you have the personnel/structure to pull off.
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I'm hopeful that Michigan will improve its shooting before the Michigan State games, but the team has to adjust to how well-scouted they are compared to non-con games.
One key advantage Michigan has from looking at the Barttorvik.com numbers is in turnovers at both ends. MSU is really bad at forcing them while Michigan is good at not committing them. Michigan is actually slightly above average at forcing them and MSU still commits an average amount at 18.7%.
To the other point, MSU's OR% is the same as the OR% allowed by Michigan at ~27%, but MSU's OR% and Michigan's DR% both rank 18th nationally with ther 12% discrepancy, so that will be key.
That site doesn't have Foul or FT rate numbers, but I know Michigan still ranks high in not committing fouls but is only average at drawing them, while MSU appears to still draw and commit a lot of fouls.
But to win, Michigan will have to shoot well and/or win the turnover margin significantly. Winston has had some of his worst games against Simpson, so I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, again.
This week is big for Michigan, though, with Ohio State and at Iowa.
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The Simpson-Winston match-up will be enormous.
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I'm hopeful that Michigan will improve its shooting before the Michigan State games, but the team has to adjust to how well-scouted they are compared to non-con games.
One key advantage Michigan has from looking at the Barttorvik.com numbers is in turnovers at both ends. MSU is really bad at forcing them while Michigan is good at not committing them. Michigan is actually slightly above average at forcing them and MSU still commits an average amount at 18.7%.
To the other point, MSU's OR% is the same as the OR% allowed by Michigan at ~27%, but MSU's OR% and Michigan's DR% both rank 18th nationally with ther 12% discrepancy, so that will be key.
That site doesn't have Foul or FT rate numbers, but I know Michigan still ranks high in not committing fouls but is only average at drawing them, while MSU appears to still draw and commit a lot of fouls.
But to win, Michigan will have to shoot well and/or win the turnover margin significantly. Winston has had some of his worst games against Simpson, so I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, again.
This week is big for Michigan, though, with Ohio State and at Iowa.
MSU is above average at getting to the line (144th), but not by much. Pretty good at not fouling (62nd).
Michigan is third in not fouling, 249th in not getting to the line.
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That's been how teams have played MSU for a solid decade+ now in conference. It's why I think MSUs rebounding margin is still so good even in years they aren't an elite rebounding team. I do think this is easily MSUs best half court offense since 2016 by a long shot. And that 2016 may have been Izzo's best half court offense ever.
I find rebounding margin to be such an odd thing becuase it’s combining two different skills/strategies and somewhat situation dependent.
And it’s interesting MSU can be so effective in transition but historically not play that fast.
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UNL has not changed its stripes from last year. All the talent to be a 2nd weekend team but most likely will end up NIT. Husker fans fears and concerns about this staff and season have become reality.
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Crazy weekend vis-a-vis the tiers. There were six games on Saturday and Sunday and only one of the five had the expected result:
- Ohio State at Nebraska - Upset
- Northwestern at Wisconsin - as expected
- Illinois at* Maryland - Upset
- Rutgers at Penn State - Upset
- Michigan State at Purdue - Upset
- Iowa at Minnesota - Upset
*I know that this game was actually a neutral site game played at MSG in NYC but Maryland gave up a home game for it so I am treating it as a Maryland home game. FWIW, I did the same thing with the tOSU/IL game in the United Center.
Friday I made a post in which I stated that there had been, to that point, 57 B1G games and nine upsets. That worked out to roughly one upset every six games. Since then there have been seven more B1G games (including Friday's IU/M contest) and five more upsets so now we are at 14 upsets in 64 games or roughly one upset every five games. Additionally, multiple teams are WAY off from their projection.
Here are the current tiers with each team's net upsets:
- Michigan -1, Michigan State -1
- BLANK
- Purdue +2, Maryland -1, Nebraska -3
- Wisconsin EVEN (+2, -2), Iowa -2
- Indiana +1, Ohio State EVEN (+1, -1)
- Minnesota +3, Northwestern +1, Penn State -2
- Rutgers +2 (+3, -1), Illinois +1
My thoughts on moves:
Purdue:
The Boilermakers are at +2 due to a home win over MSU and a road win over Wisconsin. I think we should move them up into the blank tier. That only makes a difference in home games against the Michigan schools (PU is 1-0 with no more to play) and road games against the tier-4 schools (PU is 1-0 with no more to play).
Nebraska:
The Cornhuskers are at -3 due to a road loss to MN, a road loss to RU, and a home loss to tOSU. Moving them down wouldn't eliminate any of those upsets unless we also move Minnesota up (see below).
Iowa is at -2 due to a home loss to UW and a road loss to MN. I don't think we need to move them down because moving MN up will eliminate the MN upset.
Minnesota is at +3 due to a home win over UNL, a road win over UW, and a home win over IA. Moving them up a tier would impact the projection for the following four games:
- vs UW (2/6)
- vs IA Won
- at IL Lost
- at RU (2/24)
The Gophers are 1-1 in those games with two more to play but considering their other two positive upsets I think we should move them up.
Penn State is at -2 due to home losses to RU and IU. I think they have to move down.
Thus, my proposed new tiers are:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- Purdue
- Maryland
- Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa
- Indiana, Ohio State, Minnesota
- Northwestern
- Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers
Thoughts?
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I think the way Purdue is playing right now, I agree with the move to tier 2.
Based on Sagarin prediction method, I think moving Nebraska down could make sense. Their rating is still solid, but the "recent" rating is a huge gap. They're trending down, and without Copeland I don't see them arresting that fall.
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Yep, I think that looks fair. UNL and even UMD need to be monitored closely.
We are about to learn a whole lot about UW, over the next couple of weeks.
@ UNL tomorrow
UMD Friday
@ Minnie 2/6 Wed
@ Michigan 2/9 Sat
MSU 2/12 Tues
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Thank you @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) and @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) for your quick responses. Based on that, I adopted the new tiers as proposed:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- Purdue
- Maryland
- Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska
- Indiana, Ohio State, Minnesota
- Northwestern
- Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State
The updated projected final standings and BTT seeds are as follows:
- 18-2/29-2 Michigan (wins tiebreaker over MSU based on record against PU)
- 18-2/27-4 Michigan State
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue
- 12-8/21-10 Maryland
- 11-9/19-12 Wisconsin
- 10-10/21-10 Iowa (wins tiebreaker over UNL based on record against UMD)
- 10-10/20-11 Nebraska
- 9-11/19-12 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over IU based on record against UW, wins tiebreaker over MN based on record against IA and UNL)
- 9-11/19-12 Minnesota (second in three-way tiebreaker)
- 9-11/18-13 Indiana (last in three-way tie with MN/tOSU based on record against UW)
- 7-13/16-15 Northwestern
- 5-15/9-22 Illinois
- 4-16/11-19 Rutgers
- 1-19/8-23 Penn State
The match-ups in the BTT at the United Center in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Illinois vs #13 Rutgers, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14 Pi Day!:
- #5 Wisconsin vs NU/PSU, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Iowa vs IL/RU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Nebraska vs #10 Indiana, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Ohio Sate vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan vs tOSU/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Michigan State vs UNL/IU, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Purdue vs IA/IL/RU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Maryland vs UW/NU/PSU, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- M/tOSU/MN vs UMD/UW/NU/PSU, 1pm on CBS
- MSU/UNL/IU vs PU/IA/IL/RU, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- M/tOSU/MN/UMD/UW/NU/PSU vs MSU/UNL/IU/PU/IA/IL/RU, 3:30pm on CBS
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Maryland still too high.
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Maryland still too high.
Seems to me Maryland is on notice. They will likely drop a tier if they lose to NU at home. Ultimately it's up to MB to propose a change of status, and it's up to us posters to provide feedback/arguments.
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Seems to me Maryland is on notice. They will likely drop a tier if they lose to NU at home. Ultimately it's up to MB to propose a change of status, and it's up to us posters to provide feedback/arguments.
Please feel free to propose changes. I have never wanted this tier thing to me "my" thing and I don't look at it that way, I look for consensus.
That said, I'm not going to move a team based on one person thinking they should be moved.
Maryland:
Right now Maryland is at -1. They have one upset loss, the "home" loss to Illinois. That would be an upset no matter what so it isn't a big factor. Moving Maryland down to tier-4 would impact the projection for four games:
- vs PU (2/12)
- at IU (not played)
- at tOSU (Won 75-61 on 1/18)
- at MN (Won 82-67 on 1/8)
The Terps are 2-0 with one more to play in games where tier-3/tier-4 makes a difference so I can't see dropping them unless they lose at least two more upsets.
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Exactly. That is why I said they are on notice.
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Mid conference Kenpom
1. MSU (3)
2. UM (5)
3. Purdue (7)
4. Wisconsin (11)
5. Nebraska (18)
6. Maryland (23)
7. Iowa (30)
8. OSU (31)
9. Indiana (43)
10. NW (56)
11. Minnesota (57)
12. PSU (69)
13. Illinois (81)
14. Rutgers (100)
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Mid conference Kenpom
1. MSU (3), UM (5), Purdue (7)
2. Wisconsin (11), Nebraska (18), Maryland (23)
3. Iowa (30), OSU (31), Indiana (43)
4. NW (56), Minnesota (57),
5. PSU (69), Illinois (81), Rutgers (100)
Tiers could look like that, in kenpom fashion, I think.
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The Buckeyes are now 3-5/13-6 with 12 to play. The 12 remaining games break evenly into:
- Four they will almost certainly lose (@M, @MSU, @UMD, @PU)
- Four they will almost certainly win (vRU, vPSU, vILL, vNU)
- Four that could plausibly go either way (@IU, vIA, @NU, vUW)
If we assume that Ohio State will win the games that they should win and lose the games that they should lose that gets them to 7-9/17-10 with four to go. The season hinges on those four that could go either way:
- @IU on 2/10: Should lose but could win.
- vIA on 2/26: Should win but could lose.
- @NU on 3/6: Should lose but could win.
- vUW on 3/10: Should win but could lose.
Possibilities as I see it:
- Sweep those four, finish 11-9/21-10: Lock for the NCAA Tournament.
- Go 3-1, finish 10-10/20-11: Might be a lock but might need to win the BTT opener.
- Split those four, finish 9-11/19-12: Lots of work to do in Chicago.
- Get swept in those four, finish 8-12/18-13: Need to win BTT.
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Tiers could look like that, in kenpom fashion, I think.
Purdue is in pretty good shape. They are 1 back of MSU, UM, and remaining games are @PSU, Minny, NU, @Maryland, PSU, @Indiana, @Nebraska, Illinois, OSU, at Minny, @NW.
UM: OSU, @Iowa, @Rutgers, Wiscy, @PSU, Maryland, @Minny, MSU, Nebraska, @Maryland, @MSU
MSU: Indiana, @Illinois, Minny, @Wiscy, OSU, Rutgers, @UM, @Indiana, Nebraska, UM
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I would be ecstatic if UW could return to its place in the top 4 of the conference and get a double bye for the BTT. Need to start a new streak on that one, but it's a tough road ahead.
I've already posted the next 5 games. Beyond that it's IL, @NU, @IU, PSU, Iowa and @OSU, which is a little less daunting than the next 5, but still has 3/5 road games. Road games are hard, no matter where they are, and the first two are 3 days apart.
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Updated the Sagarin predictor with newest data.
For Purdue, this now shows a double-round-robin result of 21-5. However, from that result, we lose all 6 projected wins, which would drop us to 15-5. Add in the Wisconsin upset (still need to figure out how to reflect that visually without a lot of work), and it's 16-6.
Only deviation from our tier system is that it has Purdue as a 0.22 underdog at Nebraska. However as stated previously, this is based on Sagarin's complete rankings. If I changed this to reflect Sagarin's "recent" rank which weights recent results much more highly, Purdue would be a 10.1 point favorite on the road.
I think I have an idea on how to add upsets. Excel has a conditional formatting feature where I've determined that I can add a rule that formats the text differently in any cell where the result is known. I.e. use the Purdue@Michigan and the Purdue@Wisconsin games. Essentially I'd set a rule for the cell containing Purdue @ Michigan to format the text in Blue [or another color] if the cell value is positive, and to format the text in Blue, Italic, Strikethrough if the cell value is negative. That way, either way it would show as a completed game, but it would only show as an upset if Michigan won a game that the visitor was projected to win. For Purdue @ Wisconsin, I'd essentially use the same rule, in reverse. Thus if the cell was positive (projected Wisconsin win), it would show Blue/Italic/Strikethrough referencing an upset, whereas if the cell was negative, it would show Blue since the visitor was projected to win.
Only problem is that there are 140 games, and they're roughly half done, and I'm not sure I want to update 70 cells right now lol...
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Only problem is that there are 140 games, and they're roughly half done, and I'm not sure I want to update 70 cells right now lol...
Yeah, there is a lot to it. I use a much simpler system, but mine requires a lot of manual inputs. Before the season started I entered all 140 games (really 280 because I entered each game for each team so 280 results). Then when we came up with our initial tiers I put in a lowercase "w" or "l" to indicate a projected win/loss. As the games are played I replace the lowercase w/l with an uppercase W/L for the actual result. When I replace a w with a W or an l with a L that is it. When I need to replace a w with an L and an l with a W then I also add that game to my list of upsets and add in the upsets to the mathematical calculation of projected record.
The mathematical calculation of record is important to me because it is my double-check. I calculate projected records two ways:
- I have a cell that adds up all the "W's" and "w's" and "L's" and "l's" and gives me a W/L projection that way.
- I start with the projected double-round-robin record, subtract the six games not played, add in the upsets and get a calculated W/L projection.
Then there is another cell for each team that compares the two projections to make sure I don't have any errors.
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Lunardi's latest Bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology) has 10, yes TEN B1G teams in the NCAA tournament:
- #1 Michigan State
- #2 Michigan
- #3 Purdue
- #5 Maryland
- #6 Iowa, Wisconsin
- #9 Ohio State, Nebraska
- #10 Indiana
- #11 Minnesota
Per Lunardi, both Indiana and Minnesota are among the "last four byes" and the B1G has no other teams on the bubble.
I frankly think it is fairly unlikely that we will get that many teams into the tournament in part because I think that it would be difficult for the 7/10 and 8/9 losers in the BTT to get in. I think there is a good chance for eight because the top six will probably get in regardless of BTT performance and the 7/10 and 8/9 winners have a good chance. After that it gets difficult.
Michigan State:
Lunardi has them as the #1 seed but in the West Region. That suggests that he considers them to be the weakest #1 because the other three (TN in KC, Duke in DC, and UVA in Louisville) are considerably closer to home. Their first two games would be in Columbus against No. Colorado then the Wash/Cuse winner followed by Regional games in Anaheim most likely against Louisville and Gonzaga.
Michigan:
The Wolverines are the #2 seed in the South (UVA's) Region. Their first two games are in Des Moines against Lehigh then the KSU/UCF winner followed by Regional games in Louisville most likely against Marquette and UVA (or not).
Purdue:
Purdue is the #3 seed in the East (Dook's) Region. Their first two games are in Tulsa against Loyola-Chicago then the Buffalo/ASU/VCU winner followed by Regional games in DC most likely against Kentucky and Dook.
Maryland:
The Terps are the #5 seed in the East (Dook's) Region. I know that @mcwterps1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1590) will be happy about that! Their first two games are in San Jose against Murray State then the Villanova/Yale winner followed by Regional games in DC mostly likely against Dook and Kentucky.
Iowa:
Iowa is the #6 seed in the West (MSU's) Region. Their first two games are in Salt Lake City against Wofford then the Houston/Grand Canyon winner followed by Regional games in Anaheim most likely against Gonzaga and MSU.
Wisconsin:
The Badgers are the #6 seed in the Midwest (Tennessee's) Region. Their first two games are in Des Moines against St. Johns then the Kansas/SDST winner followed by Regional games in Kansas City mostly likely against UNC and TN.
Nebraska:
Nebraska is the #9 seed in the Midwest (Tennessee's) Region. Their first two games are in Columbus against NCST then the TN/NorfolkSt/Robert Morris winner followed by Regional gams in Kansas City most likely against VaTech and UNC.
Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are the #9 seed in the South (UVA's) Region. Their first two games are in Columbia, SC against OU then the UVA/Rider winner followed by Regional games in Louisville most likely against Nevada and Michigan.
Indiana:
Indiana is the #10 seed in the Midwest (Tennessee's) Region. Their first two games are in Jacksonville against Auburn then the UNC/Radford winner followed by Regional games in Kansas City most likely against Kansas and Tennessee.
Minnesota:
The Gophers are the #11 seed in the South (UVA's) Region. Their first two games are in Tulsa against MissSt then the Marquette/NoTx winner followed by Regional games in Louisville most likely against Michigan and UVA.
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Maryland:
The Terps are the #5 seed in the East (Dook's) Region. I know that @mcwterps1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1590) will be happy about that! Their first two games are in San Jose against Murray State then the Villanova/Yale winner followed by Regional games in DC mostly likely against Dook and Kentucky.
LOL!
He'll never allow it!
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What is the least far fetched path to an upset over the big bad Wolverines tonight?
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LOL!
He'll never allow it!
Who is "he?"
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Who is "he?"
Coach K, of course.
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Coach K, of course.
You believe a coach not only speaks to the committee but has real influence over its bracket?
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What is the least far fetched path to an upset over the big bad Wolverines tonight?
They struggle offensively, and it turns into a low scoring slug fest, and OSU pulls it out in the end thanks to poor UM FT shooting.
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I don't know that OSU is this team, but when you think about the best possible theoretical team to challenge Michigan, you'd be talking about a team that (a) can both grab OREBs plus never turn it over and/or (b) pick on Michigan's defense with ~4 elite shooters.
Re: (a), Michigan tends to feast on teams with even average turnovers (because M doesn't much try for OREBs, turnovers are their way to steal extra possessions, and they're talented at getting/not-giving TOs without fouling). Re: (b), if Michigan can match up Simpson, Teske and Matthews on your best shooters and the ones you have left are meh, you'll definitely be underperforming your season in PPP).
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I don't see UNL making the tourney. Not with how they've played lately
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I don't like it, but I agree
Happ will have a big night
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Nebraska is favored tonight, last I checked. The Badgers are always much better at home than away...
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Wisconsin vs Nebraska Betting Info
All betting odds, lines and props available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: WISC: (+135) | NEB: (-160)
Spread: WISC: +3 (-110) | NEB: -3 (-110)
Total: 129 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: WISC: (51%) | NEB: (49%)
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So Nebraska as a slight favorite is doing a pretty good job of evening out the betting, but right now a Wisconsin win is bad for the odds makers?
I still don't entirely understand how that whole thing works...nor do I particularly care to.
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some smart guy here will fill you in
I just know the books like the 49% to 51% so they don't get hit too hard on one side or the other
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Massey composite rankings (62 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Duke (2)
- Virginia (1)
- MICHIGAN STATE (4)
- Tennessee (3)
- Gonzaga (5)
- MICHIGAN (6)
- North Carolina (8)
- Kansas (7)
- Kentucky (11)
- PURDUE (14)
- Nevada (12)
- Virginia Tech (9)
- Houston (16)
- Louisville (15)
- Iowa State (19)
- Villanova (25)
- LSU (20)
- Texas Tech (13)
- Oklahoma (-)
- WISCONSIN (-)
- Marquette (22)
- MARYLAND (10)
- TCU (-)
- Buffalo (17)
- Cincinnati (-)
- 29. Iowa (23)
- 30. Nebraska (21)
- 32. Ohio State (37)
- 42. Indiana (36)
- 46. Minnesota (56)
- 59. Northwestern (65)
- 98. Penn State (85)
- 103. Rutgers (132)
- 113. Illinois (125)
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Weird time in the conference.
3-4 good teams are in a bad way, depending on if you think OSU’s win at Neb snapped them out of it. But between OSU’s 1-5 run, Neb losing three in a row and one of its best players, IU with six losses in a row and that MD-Ill result, that group seems to be underperforming.
The question is how long these struggles last. Are the temporary? Longer term? Maybe I’m just thinking about my team and the road ahead. Are they still good teams, as Purdue was at 9-6? Or is something more wrong?
I still can’t get a read on Iowa or Minnesota. The Hawkeyes have a good record, but the numbers aren’t hyper bullish. Minnesota has some pretty nice wins, two not great losses and are projected to not finish well in conference. But I can’t truly buy the idea they’ll be a solid underdog at home vs UW
Solid underdog doesn't make a whole lot of sense....but underdog does. The Badgers were ice cold in the first meeting. Partly because of bullish defense by the Gophers.....but mostly it was a bad shooting night. Getting the ball to Happ in the 2nd half made the difference.....just a little too late. Gophers will be in trouble next Wednesday if Oturu cannot play. Even so....Happ is difficult to stop and I bet the Badgers will be going to him early and often.
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547)
How exactly is Minnesota sitting in your tier 5 when they have beaten each team in tier 4 (3-0)? It seems illogical.
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547)
How exactly is Minnesota sitting in your tier 5 when they have beaten each team in tier 4 (3-0)? It seems illogical.
You are expected to beat teams within 1 tier of you at home, so the Iowa and Nebraska results are as expected. Only the Wisconsin one is an upset, and that remains an upset no matter what you do, unless you think Minnesota is two tiers above Bucky?
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You are expected to beat teams within 1 tier of you at home, so the Iowa and Nebraska results are as expected. Only the Wisconsin one is an upset, and that remains an upset no matter what you do, unless you think Minnesota is two tiers above Bucky?
So beating the teams ahead of them at home places them below them. Beating teams ahead of them away puts them??? I'm just confused as to why three teams above have lost to a team (Minnesota) that is below? Doesn't make any sense. Especially Nebraska. 3-6 in the conference. Good win against Clemson in the non-con I suppose. Am I missing something here?
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You believe a coach not only speaks to the committee but has real influence over its bracket?
Come on man. I jest....
Or do I?
http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/4524265-coach-k-not-scheduling-maryland-mike-krzyzewski-duke-blue-devils-terrapins
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So beating the teams ahead of them at home places them below them. Beating teams ahead of them away puts them??? I'm just confused as to why three teams above have lost to a team (Minnesota) that is below? Doesn't make any sense. Especially Nebraska. 3-6 in the conference. Good win against Clemson in the non-con I suppose. Am I missing something here?
Well, no, but the tiers were established, absent something to change them. Minnesota hasn't done enough to prove they belong higher. That one win over Wisconsin, yes. But the loss at Illinois actually suggests the Gophers are two high, so those two balance out.
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So has the top separated itself that much, or is the middle not nearly as good as we thought? Only 5 teams running at a positive efficiency in conference play
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dx9uHVqVYAEQXv3.jpg:small)
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Come on man. I jest....
Or do I?
http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/4524265-coach-k-not-scheduling-maryland-mike-krzyzewski-duke-blue-devils-terrapins
I'm not surprised if he won't let his AD schedule them for the regular season; that's not so strange. I did take seriously what was a joke. Had wondered if this were next in the process of incrementally embracing a thousand conspiracies so that one would inevitably be right. 😉
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So beating the teams ahead of them at home places them below them. Beating teams ahead of them away puts them??? I'm just confused as to why three teams above have lost to a team (Minnesota) that is below? Doesn't make any sense. Especially Nebraska. 3-6 in the conference. Good win against Clemson in the non-con I suppose. Am I missing something here?
Again, the idea is that home court advantage in the BIG is a sizable advantage. I.e. that you'll beat a team better than you at home, and lose to a team worse than you on the road, as long as the gap isn't that large.
That's why the tier system is based on beating teams a tier ahead of you at home and losing to a tier below you on the road, but if it's a 2-tier gap, then the higher tier wins at either venue.
This is why the Purdue home win over Michigan State wasn't an upset. Nor does it mean that Purdue is equal to MSU or should be in the same tier as them. It's because home court advantage is extremely valuable.
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Well, no, but the tiers were established, absent something to change them. Minnesota hasn't done enough to prove they belong higher. That one win over Wisconsin, yes. But the loss at Illinois actually suggests the Gophers are two high, so those two balance out.
Again....how does Nebraska at 3-6 in the conference make any sense at tier 4? And Minnesota's loss to Illinois was on their court. Maryland just lost at home to Illinois. So again....it seems like these tiers are simply pulled out of nowhere.
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Big Ten Standings:
MSU 9-1
Michigan 8-1
Purdue 7-2
Maryland 7-3
Wisconsin 6-3
Minnesota 5-4
Iowa 5-5
OSU 3-5
Nebraska 3-6
Indiana 3-6
Rutgers 3-6
Northwestern 3-6
Illinois 2-7
Penn State 0-9
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Again....how does Nebraska at 3-6 in the conference make any sense at tier 4? And Minnesota's loss to Illinois was on their court. Maryland just lost at home to Illinois. So again....it seems like these tiers are simply pulled out of nowhere.
I'm not sure how many ways, how many people can explain this to you. The tiers are for the express purpose, no not overreact to records due to scheduling differences. And Illinois is Tier 6, so even at Tier 4 Minnesota would be expected to win that game, so that equals out the Wisconsin win.
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I'm not surprised if he won't let his AD schedule them for the regular season; that's not so strange. I did take seriously what was a joke. Had wondered if this were next in the process of incrementally embracing a thousand conspiracies so that one would inevitably be right. 😉
Well, you do have to wonder how much pull he has in the college basketball community. Who he knows on the committee.
I wouldn't put it past him to try back room deals with people he knows on the committee to keep Maryland out of their bracket.
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I wouldn't put it past him to try, but I'd be surprised if he could get it done
surprised, not shocked
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we almost saw the Huskers shoot under 20% from the floor in the first half
and it wasn't because of the great Badger defense
SMH
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Again....how does Nebraska at 3-6 in the conference make any sense at tier 4? And Minnesota's loss to Illinois was on their court. Maryland just lost at home to Illinois. So again....it seems like these tiers are simply pulled out of nowhere.
Look at the tiers and the results. UNL is expected to win today against UW. If they don't, they will likely be moved down. The tiers are just are own predictor.
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Watching NC State before they switch over to OSU. Braxton Beverly was a point guard who committed to Matta but left when he resigned. OSU could use him.
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Well, you do have to wonder how much pull he has in the college basketball community. Who he knows on the committee.
I wouldn't put it past him to try back room deals with people he knows on the committee to keep Maryland out of their bracket.
So are we back to you not joking about this conspiracy or are you still joking as a test of my gullibility and I failed?
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So are we back to you not joking about this conspiracy or are you still joking as a test of my gullibility and I failed?
I'm jokingly serious, as opposed to seriously joking.
Come on AC.
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Had no idea Derek Funderburk also ended up at NC State. He was a Buckeye who got kicked off the team.
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Fairly unsurprising first half
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I'm not sure how many ways, how many people can explain this to you. The tiers are for the express purpose, no not overreact to records due to scheduling differences. And Illinois is Tier 6, so even at Tier 4 Minnesota would be expected to win that game, so that equals out the Wisconsin win.
Got it. Fan perception. Records don't matter.
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Got it. Fan perception. Records don't matter.
Lol, so you don't get it. At least we can work with that
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It was a pretty OK win for Wisconsin. Things look good early and late, kind of crappy in the middle.
If Nebraska wants to rally together and make that win look better down the stretch, I would appreciate it.
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It was a pretty OK win for Wisconsin. Things look good early and late, kind of crappy in the middle.
If Nebraska wants to rally together and make that win look better down the stretch, I would appreciate it.
I don't see it, they just don't have much without Copeland. That big dude wasn't any good, and Miles was forced to play him til he fouled out, because he was still substantially better than the guy behind him, who couldn't defend anything.
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Impressed the Bucks could generate open shots against Michigan. Hopefully future buckeye teams can make open shots.
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Michigan's defense was somewhat fortunate, but they still played rather well (0.803 PPP after holding Indiana to 0.696 PPP), except against the Wesson brothers.
Hellofa game for Simpson of course with a triple double. Every other Michigan player who has done it other than Gary Grant, who did it in a tournament loss to North Carolina (Caris LeVert, Darius Morris, Manny Harris, Derrick Walton) had their's against bad teams, which makes it all the more impressive.
The offense could've been better, but there weren't many turnovers or bad shots though an unfortunate number of missed good shots and the transition offense is still a work in progress.
At Iowa is next, which will provide Michigan's offense a chance to do well but also put a lot of pressure on the defense. It should be a good game.
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Lol, so you don't get it. At least we can work with that
Lol. Hard to understand fan rankings that aren't based upon results. 3-6 conference record vs 5-4 conference record. The 5-4 team beat the 3-6 team head to head.
Fan based tiers have 3-6 team as tier 4
Fan based tiers have 5-4 team as tier 5
It's all good. I don't really care that much about your rankings. Just funny to see how you justify some of these. Are they based on preseason tiers? Way too slow to adapt to results?
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RBF: are you also complaining to Pomeroy, Massey, Sagarin, Lunardi, etc., all of whom agree with ELA/medina that, despite the conference standings, Minnesota is not as good as (or in the case of KenPom and Lunardi, won't finish as high as) Iowa, Wisconsin or Nebraska?
Because I'm sure you could find their emails if you tried.
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RBF: are you also complaining to Pomeroy, Massey, Sagarin, Lunardi, etc., all of whom agree with ELA/medina that, despite the conference standings, Minnesota is not as good as, for example, Wisconsin.
Did RPI completely evaporate from existence this year? Minnesota is 30th in RPI. Lot's of the ranking systems you refer to use efficiency ratings....which completely ignore wins/losses and SOS. I'd implore you to go look at the new ranking system (NET). It's a complete joke. But look at the records of teams in the NET rankings and ask yourself how they can possibly use these as bracket predictors. Lunardi got the memo and has fallen in line.
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Many (could be most) fans and experts have spent decades arguing that, though RPI hasn't yet evaporated, it should have.
Aside from its placement of Minnesota in 2019, what's your best argument for its algorithm?
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Meanwhile, I doubt there's a more respected ratings entity than Kenpom in MBB. Sure, his is about projecting the future, rather than evaluating the past, but it performs well and, convenient for this conversation, agrees with every ranking mentioned spare RPI and an incomplete conference standing.
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Many (could be most) fans and experts have spent decades arguing that, though RPI hasn't yet evaporated, it should have.
Aside from its placement of Minnesota in 2019, what's your best argument for its algorithm?
I'm not necessarily arguing for RPi….but....I'm questioning the abrupt shift away from it. As a Gopher fan....yeah....I've got a personal interest in this. Our "resume" seems to be a non factor whereas it was the main factor before. We have teams that we've beaten head-to-head and that have four more losses sitting safely in the field while we're on the bubble?
Everything is based upon efficiency. Offensive possessions regardless of opponent, score, time of game, etc.....doesn't matter. NC State played NOBODY in the non-con and rolled. Their efficiency rating shot through the roof. Now look at their schedule and let me know what's earned them an RPI in the 100's, yet a low NET and a #23 ranking. What's right.
NC State Wolfpack Basketball (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/152/nc-state-wolfpack)
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I'm not necessarily arguing for RPi….but....I'm questioning the abrupt shift away from it. As a Gopher fan....yeah....I've got a personal interest in this. Our "resume" seems to be a non factor whereas it was the main factor before. We have teams that we've beaten head-to-head and that have four more losses sitting safely in the field while we're on the bubble?
Everything is based upon efficiency. Offensive possessions regardless of opponent, score, time of game, etc.....doesn't matter. NC State played NOBODY in the non-con and rolled. Their efficiency rating shot through the roof. Now look at their schedule and let me know what's earned them an RPI in the 100's, yet a low NET and a #23 ranking. What's right.
NC State Wolfpack Basketball (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/152/nc-state-wolfpack)
The NET (or any efficiency-based matric) is just a better way to build resumes. In theory, a team’s own rating shouldn’t boost or hurt it all that much.
In the end, teams will be ranked by good wins and bad losses, and there’s still some time for Minnesota to stack up well there.
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It was a pretty OK win for Wisconsin. Things look good early and late, kind of crappy in the middle.
If Nebraska wants to rally together and make that win look better down the stretch, I would appreciate it.
So Maryland comes to Madison on Friday. This will be a tough game for UW.
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So done with basketball...
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It's miserable cold and I'm home watching the girls since everything is closed. Was intrigued seeing NC State last night and seeing two former
Buckeyes on the floor, and that made me think of the many guys who have left in the past couple years. This is probably only of interest to Buck fans but I ain't starting a new thread.
2017: PG Braxton Beverly signed with the Buckeyes but transferred to NC State after Thad Matta was fired. He has pretty much been their starting point guard since. Given this team's guard and turnover issues, he was a big loss.
2016: F Derek Funderburk was kicked off the team shortly after Holtmann arrived for undisclosed reasons. He ended up going JUCO before arriving at NC State this year. He's averaging 18 minutes, 8 points and 4 rebounds. He would certainly be useful this year given the total lack of depth up front.
F Micah Potter quit the team and looked to transfer right before the season started and is heading to Wisconsin. His issue appears to be minutes, since he couldn't beat out Kaleb Wesson at center and wasn't a great fit at other positions. But he has a good offensive game and certainly would add quality depth to this Buckeye team.
2015: The lost class, as none of these guys lasted. They would be seniors now.
SG Jaquan Lyle was the most talented but had the iffiest head, and was eventually kicked off the team. He landed at New Mexico, but ruptured his Achilles before the season started and has yet to suit up.
C Daniel Giddens transferred to Alabama after one year. He seems glued to the bench, averaging 7 minutes and 2 points a game for a pretty average Alabama team.
SG Austin Grandstaff quit the team after 10 games into his freshman year. He transferred to Oklahoma, then to Depaul, and played one season of pretty limited minutes. It appears he has quit basketball altogether.
PG AJ Harris transferred to New Mexico State after one year, and has been giving them quality minutes at 27 minutes and 11 points a game. NMSU is decent enough this year, so that's not too shabby and he could certainly contribute here.
F Mickey Mitchell transferred to Arizona State after a year. He averaged 22 minutes a game last year, but that's down to 9 this year and sounds like he's battled a lot of injuries.
2014
There's actually two guys with eligibility who are gone - Keita Bates-Diop obviously went pro and Dave Bell transferred after two seasons to Jackonsville University.
So that's 10 guys who could be playing right now who aren't, enough for a whole other basketball team (they have ten scholarship guys right now). Hopefully, the roster turnover is a thing of the past as Holtmann gets things under control. Next year they have a good recruiting class coming in and only lose two guys to graduation, so the team should have much less of a string and bubblegum look.
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Last night's results were as projected in the tOSU/M and NU/UMD games but the UW/UNL game was an upset.
It seems that the injury and maybe something else are a MAJOR issue for the Cornhuskers because their last three games have been "upset" losses:
- They were projected to win at Rutgers on 1/21: Lost by 7
- They were projected to win at home over Ohio State on 1/26: Lost by 10
- They were projected to win at home over Wisconsin on 1/29: Lost by 11
They have one positive upset (a 15 point in in Bloomington) and three negative upsets in the past nine days. They need to move down one tier and the way they are playing right now, maybe two. Moving them down to tier-5 impacts the projection for home games against tier-3 and road games against tier-6:
- vs UMD: 2/6
- @NU: not played
Moving them down another tier into tier-6 would impact the projection for home games against tier-4 and road games against tier-7:
- vs UW: Lost last night
- vs IA: 3/10
- @ IL: 2/2
- @ RU: Lost 1/21
- @ PSU: 2/19
Based on that, I am going to go ahead and drop the Cornhuskers all the way down to tier-6.
I'll address @RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) 's comments about Minnesota below but suffice to say for now that there simply isn't any reason to elevate them and he hasn't provided one.
New tiers:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- Purdue
- Maryland
- Wisconsin, Iowa
- Indiana, Ohio State, Minnesota
- Northwestern, Nebraska
- Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State
All teams are within +/-1 except Illinois at +2
Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 18-2/29-2 Michigan (wins tiebreaker with MSU based on record against Purdue, no game in W. Lafayette)
- 18-2/27-4 Michigan State
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue
- 13-7/22-9 Maryland
- 12-8/20-11 Wisconsin
- 11-9/22-9 Iowa
- 9-11/19-12 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker over IU and tOSU based on record against Iowa, no game in Iowa City)
- 9-11/18-13 Indiana (loses tiebreaker to MN based on record against Iowa, beats Ohio State based on record against NU)
- 9-11/19-12 Ohio State
- 7-13/16-15 Northwestern
- 6-14/10-21 Illinois
- 5-15/15-16 Nebraska
- 4-16/11-19 Rutgers
- 2-18/9-22 Penn State
Based on those projections the match-ups at the BTT in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Illinois vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Nebraska vs #13 Rutgers, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):
- #5 Wisconsin vs IL/PSU, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Iowa vs UNL/RU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Minnesota vs #10 Northwestern, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Indiana vs #9 Ohio State, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan vs IU/tOSU, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Michigan State vs MN/NU, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Purdue vs IA/UNL/RU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Maryland vs UW/IL/PSU, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- M/IU/tOSU vs UMD/UW/IL/PSU, 1pm on CBS
- MSU/MN/NU vs PU/IA/UNL/RU, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- M/IU/tOSU/UMD/UW/IL/PSU vs MSU/MN/NU/PU/IA/UNL/RU, 3:30pm on CBS
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@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) :
At this point my only real concern for this year is that I hope the team can finish well enough to get a tournament bid. I expect them to go absolutely nowhere in the tournament so I don't really care much about seed. I just want to make it to keep the one year streak going because with the class we have coming in I think that they'll be able to keep it going past this year.
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I was actually thinking tier 6 for UNL too. Glad we are on the same page there.
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Grandstaff is a rapper now, iirc.
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So Maryland comes to Madison on Friday. This will be a tough game for UW.
I was going to say "So Maryland goes to Madison on Friday. This will be a tough game for UMD."
both are probably true...
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@RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) :
This has been explained to you repeatedly and you have generally chosen snark and trolling rather than understanding and discussion but I'll give it one more shot:
First, as @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) alluded to, the purpose of this tier-based projection system is mainly to do several things:
- To level out the sometimes severe differences in SoS. I don't care that one team's record is better than another team's record until I look at who they have played.
- To avoid overreacting to winning or losing streaks that are primarily a product of schedule. Ie, if a team wins four straight it might mean that they are doing really well or it might just be that they played three home games and a road game against one of the conference's bottom-feeders. Conversely, if a team loses four straight it might mean that they are having issues or it might just be that they played three road games and a home game against one of the top teams in the league.
- To have a reasonably accurate projection of how the season will play out.
Now onto Minnesota:
Almost half way into the season they are a little above .500 at 5-4 in the league which, as you pointed out, is better than several teams that we have ranked ahead of them and the team that we have ranked even with them:
- fellow tier-5 team Ohio State is just 3-6
- tier-4 Iowa is 5-5
- tier-4 Indiana is 3-6
That is because our tier system is a little bit more sophisticated than simply looking at records. As I mentioned above, I don't care about records until I look at who they have played. In Minnesota's case their nine opponents/results are:
- 2 point road loss to tier-1 Michigan
- 15 point home loss to tier-3 Maryland
- 7 point road win over tier-4 Wisconsin
- 5 point home win over tier-4 Iowa
- 20 point road loss to tier-5 Ohio State
- 7 point home win over tier-6 Nebraska
- 27 point road loss to tier-7 Illinois
- 1 point home win over tier-7 Penn State
- 18 point home win over tier-7 Rutgers
The two bolded results are "upsets" by which I mean that the tier system projected the opposite result. The other seven games all resulted in what we would expect for a tier-5 team.
You have talked a lot about Minnesota's road win over Wisconsin. That is a nice win, no doubt about it. You have failed to address Minnesota's 27 point loss to Illinois. That is a bad loss. From my perspective, they cancel each other out. Minnesota has one positive upset (the win at Wisconsin) and one negative upset (the loss at Illinois) and they have exactly the record that we would project for a tier-5 team at this point in the season.
Wisconsin has the upset loss at home to Minnesota. We know that. They also have two positive upsets. They beat the Wolverines and they won in Iowa City. Thus, Wisconsin is ahead of where we would project them to be and we now project them to finish 12-8.
Minnesota will get moved up if, and only if, they win some games that they are not projected to win. Going forward:
- vIL tonight - projected win
- @PU on 2/3 - projected loss
- vUW on 2/6 - projected win
- @MSU on 2/9 - projected loss
- @UNL on 2/13 - projected loss
- vIU on 2/16 - projected win
- vM on 2/21 - projected loss
- @RU on 2/24 - projected win
- @NU on 2/28 - projected loss
- vPU on 3/5 - projected loss
- @UMD on 3/8 - projected loss
We project that your Gophers will go just 4-7 in their last 11 games. Maybe you are right and they'll do better than that. If they win some of those games that we project them to lose (and don't lose offsetting games that we project them to win) then we'll adjust accordingly. For now, there isn't any reason to elevate them because the two upsets offset and they are exactly where we would project them to be.
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SG Jaquan Lyle was the most talented but had the iffiest head, and was eventually kicked off the team. He landed at New Mexico, but ruptured his Achilles before the season started and has yet to suit up.
Per Mark Titus, Lyle was partying in Columbus almost immediately after getting his UNM diagnosis FWIW
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I was actually thinking tier 6 for UNL too. Glad we are on the same page there.
Yeah, I'm not sure if they were heading here without the Copeland injury anyway, but without him, they simply have no size. At least no size that should be out on the court trying to guard Ethan Happ.
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I was actually thinking tier 6 for UNL too. Glad we are on the same page there.
I hesitated because I don't usually move teams two tiers at once but considering that their last three games were "upset" losses (based on their old tier) and the injury to Copeland it appears to be justified at this point.
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Mark Titus is still a thing?
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Mark Titus is still a thing?
He hosts a great college basketball podcast. I would highly recommend it.
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547)
Ok. Thanks for the explanation. I think it's still pretty janky, but who knows. Indiana has lost six straight and is tier 4. I guess.
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Minnesota will get moved up if, and only if, they win some games that they are not projected to win.
To clarify this:
We don't generally look at moving teams unless they get to +/-2. For example, I moved Nebraska down because they were at -2. Currently 13 of the 14 teams are within +/-1. The lone exception is Illinois which is currently +2. The same applies to Minnesota. We probably will not look seriously at moving them unless/until they get to +2 or -2. Presently they are even (one positive upset and one negative upset) so they would need to win two of their projected losses without taking a loss in any projected wins before we started talking about moving them up.
There is an argument for moving Illinois up and that would help Minnesota by eliminating their negative upset. As mentioned, Illinois is at +2. Moving them up into tier-6 would impact the projections for their home games against tier-5 teams:
- Ohio State: Lost by 10 on 12/5 (Note, this was actually a neutral site game in the United Center)
- Minnesota: Won by 27 on 1/16
- Indiana: March 7
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547)
Ok. Thanks for the explanation. I think it's still pretty janky, but who knows. Indiana has lost six straight and is tier 4. I guess.
I made a typo on the earlier post, Indiana is actually tier-5. I have fixed it.
As far as Indiana's six straight losses, two were against Michigan, one each at Maryland and Purdue. Those four are games that most teams in the Country would lose, they are just really tough games. The other two (vUNL, @NU) are more questionable but we projected the road loss at NU. Thus, while they have lost six straight only one is an "upset" and that is their only upset this year so we'll wait and see if they take another negative upset.
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UNL was a tier 4 before Copeland was injured. I never saw them as higher because the culture within the program doesn't breed consistency. Without Copeland and how this team is falling apart, tier 6 is valid. Good thing Nebraska fans can spell NIT.
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I made a typo on the earlier post, Indiana is actually tier-5. I have fixed it.
As far as Indiana's six straight losses, two were against Michigan, one each at Maryland and Purdue. Those four are games that most teams in the Country would lose, they are just really tough games. The other two (vUNL, @NU) are more questionable but we projected the road loss at NU. Thus, while they have lost six straight only one is an "upset" and that is their only upset this year so we'll wait and see if they take another negative upset.
How about Maryland? Seems that they've only won games that they "should have" won. Haven't beaten anyone above them. Have that stinky loss on their home court to Illinois.
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I'm not surprised if he won't let his AD schedule them for the regular season; that's not so strange. I did take seriously what was a joke. Had wondered if this were next in the process of incrementally embracing a thousand conspiracies so that one would inevitably be right. 😉
Anonymous, Coach Krzyzewski had a REALLY weird and strong reaction when Maryland left the ACC. I don't know why he cared that much, but it really appeared to hit him hard. He wasn't just angry, it almost seemed like he was personally hurt by it.
Most teams/fans just said the equivalent of "F 'em!" But he could never say fewer than six or seven paragraphs whenever he was asked about it.
I never understood it.
from that article:
“I have a great deal of respect for Maryland," Coach K told reporters. He paused briefly, then added: “If it was such a rivalry, they’d still be in the ACC. Obviously they don’t think it’s that important, or they wouldn’t be in the Big Ten."
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How about Maryland? Seems that they've only won games that they "should have" won. Haven't beaten anyone above them. Have that stinky loss on their home court to Illinois.
The loss to Illinois is an upset but to clarify it wasn't actually on their home court, it was a neutral site game at MSG in NYC. That said, it really doesn't matter because a tier-3 team (Maryland) should beat a tier-7 team (Illinois) regardless of location.
The loss to Illinois is bad no matter how you look at it but their other two losses were at Purdue by two points and at MSU by 14. Those two are games that almost every team in the Country would lose so we shouldn't penalize the Terps for those.
The Illinois loss raises some concern but it is their only upset. You are right that they haven't beaten anyone above them but they also haven't hosted anyone above them. They only get two chances at home against teams ranked ahead of them this year because they don't host MSU. Those two chances are a home game against Purdue on 2/12 and a home game against Michigan on 3/3. We project that they'll win the Purdue game and lose the Michigan game.
At this point I would consider Maryland to be "on notice" because they have a negative upset (the loss to Illinois) and no offsetting positive upsets so they are at -1. If they absorb another upset loss without getting an offsetting positive upset we'll look seriously at moving them down.
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Anonymous, Coach Krzyzewski had a REALLY weird and strong reaction when Maryland left the ACC. I don't know why he cared, but it really seem to hit him hard. He wasn't just angry, it almost seemed like he was personally hurt by it.
Most teams/fans just said the equivalent of "F 'em!" But he could never say fewer than six or seven paragraphs whenever he was asked about it.
I never understood it.
Which is odd because the Duke trips to College Park were probably the basketball games filled with the most absolute venom. That always felt like a more charged atmosphere than Duke-UNC or Indiana-Purdue, or whatever to me.
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How about Maryland? Seems that they've only won games that they "should have" won. Haven't beaten anyone above them. Have that stinky loss on their home court to Illinois.
That's what this is all about. The tiers are set up to predict which teams will beat which. In the case of Maryland, the tiers have worked. They are on notice (in my mind) but even if they lose in Madison Monday, they stay where they are because the tiers predict that. If they lose at UNL, they will drop.
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And trust me, I've had my issues with using some of these forward looking/prediction based models for tourney seeding. I'd rather select and seed based on the best season, not the best team.
But no matter how you feel about that, this isn't a power ranking, or anything like that, it's meant to be a very simplistic, forward projecting model, so yes, KenPom or NET or whatever is a better comparison to the sole purpose of what the tiers are trying to do.
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How about Maryland? Seems that they've only won games that they "should have" won. Haven't beaten anyone above them. Have that stinky loss on their home court to Illinois.
Also, keep in mind that they higher a team is, the fewer the opportunities there are to beat anybody above them ( because there are fewer such teams). As Medina said, Maryland only has two home games against higher teams all season. Conversely, the higher a team is, the more "expected" victories there are going to be because there are a lot more teams below them.
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I'm just glad that the user-emotion/schedule-dependent based system that's used here isn't taken seriously outside of this thread. Do results matter anymore?
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Also, keep in mind that they higher a team is, the fewer the opportunities there are to beat anybody above them ( because there are fewer such teams). As Medina said, Maryland only has two home games against higher teams all season. Conversely, the higher a team is, the more "expected" victories there are going to be because there are a lot more teams below them.
This is a really good point and it is one reason that I am hesitant to move Illinois up even though they are +2. The projection before upsets was that Michigan would go 19-1 and Penn State would go 3-17. As @JerseyTerrapin (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1642) pointed out, it is a lot more likely for Penn State to win an upset than it is for Michigan simply because PSU has 17 chances to upset somebody while Michigan only has one. Typically, by the end of the year, the teams in the top few tiers tend to be negative and the teams in the bottom few tiers tend to be positive for exactly that reason.
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I'm just glad that the user-emotion/schedule-dependent based system that's used here isn't taken seriously outside of this thread. Do results matter anymore?
Now you are back to snark for no reason. There isn't any emotion in this system. We really don't care if anyone outside this thread (yourself included) takes this seriously.
Results obviously matter. As we have explained to you repeatedly, if your team manages to achieve results better than we project, we'll move them up. They haven't so far (overall, they do have one win we didn't project but they also have one loss we didn't project so those offset).
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I'm just glad that the user-emotion/schedule-dependent based system that's used here isn't taken seriously outside of this thread. Do results matter anymore?
You are obviously confused as to what the tiers are for. They are NOT rankings, and there is absolutely zero emotion in them. They are just predictors. It's really pretty simple.
I suppose we could post power rankings like we do for football, but I'm pretty certain not too many of us watch every possible game, like we do for football. Rankings here would not be very reliable as a result.
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I'm just glad that the user-emotion/schedule-dependent based system that's used here isn't taken seriously outside of this thread. Do results matter anymore?
Is the complaint thay Iowa is ahead of Minn?
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Is the complaint thay Iowa is ahead of Minn?
Probably UW too...
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Is the complaint thay Iowa is ahead of Minn?
Nah. Mostly just confusion over how tiers are established and judged. Like Nebraska seems to have taken a major tumble due to the loss of Copeland. Gophers are being judged harshly based upon their road loss against Illinois. A game where the Illini shot 50% from three and over 50% from the field. Meanwhile.....Maryland is sitting cozy at tier 3 and just lost AT HOME to the same dismal Illinois team. But results only matter sometimes.
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I'm just glad that the user-emotion/schedule-dependent based system that's used here isn't taken seriously outside of this thread. Do results matter anymore?
You seem very confident in Minnesota, and if that confidence is deserved, medina has already offered you a future cookie (that Minnesota will inevitably move up, maybe way up, if they finish better than 4-7 over these final 11 games, probably +/- 1, depending on whether UNL plummets).
You either don't understand that the tiers are meant to stably predict how the season will end or you aren't interested in patiently waiting to prove that you were right and that the tiers were wrong (I.E.: too stable/way off on the Gophers).
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Probably UW too...
Based on posts below yours, I think it's Maryland that RBF has issues with.
Speaking for myself, I'd be okay with dropping them a few tiers. It will save me a few tears... :03:
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Word play!
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Based on posts below yours, I think it's Maryland that RBF has issues with.
Speaking for myself, I'd be okay with dropping them a few tiers. It will save me a few tears... :03:
If they lose to UNL, they will drop. Losing to UW Monday will not do it.
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You seem very confident in Minnesota, and if that confidence is deserved, medina has already offered you a future cookie (that Minnesota will inevitably move up, maybe way up, if they finish better than 4-7 over these final 11 games, probably +/- 1, depending on whether UNL plummets).
You either don't understand that the tiers are meant to stably predict how the season will end or you aren't interested in patiently waiting to prove that you were right and that the tiers were wrong (I.E.: too stable/way off on the Gophers).
My point is that....you could have them two tiers up (for no specific reason) and the determining factors that move teams up and down wouldn't really move them at all. Especially considering that the Illinois loss doesn't seem to have as much effect on Maryland as it would appear to have on Minnesota.
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My point is that....you could have them two tiers up (for no specific reason) and the determining factors that move teams up and down wouldn't really move them at all. Especially considering that the Illinois loss doesn't seem to have as much effect on Maryland as it would appear to have on Minnesota.
I just had a detailed analysis of the tiers as currently constituted, compared with Minnesota's schedule/results. The internet ate it.
Just look at the tiers and look at results. The tiers are working as expected.
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There is an argument for moving Illinois up and that would help Minnesota by eliminating their negative upset. As mentioned, Illinois is at +2. Moving them up into tier-6 would impact the projections for their home games against tier-5 teams:
I think there should be some hesitation as it relates to moving down teams in tier 1 or moving teams up in the bottom tier.
The simple fact is that when you're predicted to win almost all your games, there almost zero opportunity for positive variance. When you're predicted to lose almost all your games, there's almost zero opportunity for negative variance. But good teams have the occasional bad day, and bad teams have the occasional good day.
And it's especially true that a lot of the weaker teams in the B1G don't lack talent. They often are young, have coaching issues, etc. But Illinois recruits good players. When they have a good day, they can knock off almost anyone and it's an "upset", but when they have a bad day, none of their losses are "upsets". Whereas I think Wisconsin at one point this year was even with +2 and -2 variance. Their inconsistency meant their good day could be an upset, but since they were in the middle, their bad days could also be upsets.
So while we generally consider +1 or -1 as "on notice", I think for a team like Illinois one should be very slow to move them up, even at +2, unless their play on the court actually looks like they're putting it together.
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I just had a detailed analysis of the tiers as currently constituted, compared with Minnesota's schedule/results. The internet ate it.
Just look at the tiers and look at results. The tiers are working as expected.
As I said....you could shuffle teams up or down a tier or two and the system would still be working as expected. So there is plenty of bias built in. As I said with Nebraska. They lost Copeland. Instead of waiting for results, they drop like a brick. There's some human judgement involved. Maryland lost on their home court to bottom tier Illinois. With Minnesota....you're using their loss to Illinois to offset their road win against Wisconsin. For Maryland....nothing changes. Despite the fact that they lost on their home court to a team ranked WAY lower.
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My point is that....you could have them two tiers up (for no specific reason) and the determining factors that move teams up and down wouldn't really move them at all. Especially considering that the Illinois loss doesn't seem to have as much effect on Maryland as it would appear to have on Minnesota.
Two big things here.
- As stated, part of the purpose of the tiers is to "smooth out" issues. Sometimes a streak of wins and losses is due to a team playing well or badly. Sometimes it's due to playing really poor or really good competition [factoring in home/away]. We as fans tend to overrated streaks, and this is a way to moderate that impulse and not move teams up or down until they prove it.
- This is by nature mostly backward-looking. Towards the beginning of the year, and as we approach conference play, tiers are set both by perception and by OOC results. Teams like Nebraska started the year VERY strong and teams like Minnesota didn't, so their initial perception coupled with the inherent "smoothing" function of waiting until a team has enough variance (i.e. upsets) from projection before moving them causes us sometimes to be a bit slow to change. But that's by design.
Nebraska is currently 21st in Sagarin but their "recent" results would have them 78th. They're trending down HARD, and with the Copeland injury, we're trying to address that.
Maryland is currently 23rd in Sagarin, and their "recent" results are 25th. So they're not showing a strong trend down, despite the loss to Illinois and the -1 variance. So we may have them "on notice" that the gap to Purdue (9th) and the gap to the teams below them (OSU at 34th, Iowa at 35th) might suggest moving them down. But there's no CLEAR signal here yet, so they remain where they are.
Minnesota is currently 51st in Sagarin, 9th in the conference. Their "recent" would be 65th nationally, so they're not strongly trending up or down. So right now we're in a wait and see mode until we know more. There's no clear signal either way.
So right now Minnesota has no variance. There's one positive upset and one negative. If that variance starts to justify a move, they'll be moved.
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My point is that....you could have them two tiers up (for no specific reason) and the determining factors that move teams up and down wouldn't really move them at all. Especially considering that the Illinois loss doesn't seem to have as much effect on Maryland as it would appear to have on Minnesota.
Let's do this a different way:
- What's your record prediction for Minnesota these final 11 games?
- And if your prediction is 4-7 or 5-8, do you still think Minnesota is mis-tiered?
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btw... while I've said UNL should be a tier 4 for some time... and now agree w/ the tier 6.... please don't mistake that for suggesting this thread is wrong/bad/silly/etc... I've enjoyed the different perspectives and what the group is trying to accomplish.
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Minnesota will get moved up if, and only if, they win some games that they are not projected to win. Going forward:
- vIL tonight - projected win - 7.29 point favorites
- @PU on 2/3 - projected loss - 11.26 point dogs
- vUW on 2/6 - projected win - 3.51 point dogs
- @MSU on 2/9 - projected loss - 16.12 point dogs
- @UNL on 2/13 - projected loss - 7.96 point dogs ----- using Sagarin "recent", 1.69 point dogs
- vIU on 2/16 - projected win - 0.25 point favorites
- vM on 2/21 - projected loss - 6.68 point dogs
- @RU on 2/24 - projected win - 2.05 point favorites
- @NU on 2/28 - projected loss - 2.28 point dogs
- vPU on 3/5 - projected loss - 4.98 point dogs
- @UMD on 3/8 - projected loss - 7.78 point dogs
We project that your Gophers will go just 4-7 in their last 11 games. Maybe you are right and they'll do better than that. If they win some of those games that we project them to lose (and don't lose offsetting games that we project them to win) then we'll adjust accordingly. For now, there isn't any reason to elevate them because the two upsets offset and they are exactly where we would project them to be.
I annotated with the current Sagarin spreads. That has Minnesota with a 3-8 record in their last 11. I added a separate calculation for Nebraska, as they're trending down hard, so using the Sagarin "recent" metrics, it doesn't change the outcome but it changes the spread significantly.
Now, this doesn't mean that agreeing with Sagarin makes our own predictions more reliable. But it would show that compared to other common metrics out there in the world, this isn't us just pulling crap out of thin air on a whim. If we're wrong, we're at least wrong with company.
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Again....many of the metrics that you use are based upon efficiency rather than results. It makes little sense. Jerry Palm on the other hand....hasn't bent the knee.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
It's ridiculous that future results are based upon things like efficiency. Especially when efficiency ratings do not consider strength of opponent. Again....results don't seem to matter. Flawed judgement plays a role.
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Again....many of the metrics that you use are based upon efficiency rather than results. It makes little sense. Jerry Palm on the other hand....hasn't bent the knee.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
It's ridiculous that future results are based upon things like efficiency. Especially when efficiency ratings do not consider strength of opponent. Again....results don't seem to matter. Flawed judgement plays a role.
But that is the sole purpose of the tiers, to project games going forward
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Again....many of the metrics that you use are based upon efficiency rather than results. It makes little sense. Jerry Palm on the other hand....hasn't bent the knee.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
It's ridiculous that future results are based upon things like efficiency. Especially when efficiency ratings do not consider strength of opponent. Again....results don't seem to matter. Flawed judgement plays a role.
A. Using raw results if you want to have a predictive element is not particularly useful
B. Most efficiency metrics account for SOS
C. Bracketogy is a frivolity. How ESPN or Palm do it differently is interesting, but not worth getting up in arms about. Also RPI is somewhat easy to game and generally not that useful.
We’ll get to he end of the year and weigh resumes. If those resumes of accomplishments.
I guess this is my question, what has you perturbed? That our own little small-scale projection system isn’t built purely on past results? That Joe Lunardi is using KenPom projeted record seemingly?
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Since I'm a Husker fan and didn't spend much time on this thread in the past the questions raised by RestingB!tchFace and the answers have cleared up the "tiers" for me.
Thanks to all
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A. Using raw results if you want to have a predictive element is not particularly useful
B. Most efficiency metrics account for SOS
C. Bracketogy is a frivolity. How ESPN or Palm do it differently is interesting, but not worth getting up in arms about. Also RPI is somewhat easy to game and generally not that useful.
We’ll get to he end of the year and weigh resumes. If those resumes of accomplishments.
I guess this is my question, what has you perturbed? That our own little small-scale projection system isn’t built purely on past results? That Joe Lunardi is using KenPom projeted record seemingly?
It's mostly that....like any preseason ranking....certain teams have to dive bomb their way down while other teams have to scratch their way up. Beat a team a tier above you? Well that's expected? Tier 3 team loses at home to a tier 7 team? No movement. It's a very subjective ranking system that seems to have little logic built in. Also....a few posters from some of the best teams seem to be making the decisions without much outside input. It's an all around odd ranking system.
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You keep saying Maryland lost at home, no matter how many times people point out to you it's not.
Generally a team has to get +/-2 before anything is reevaluated, Maryland is currently -1. But they'd be -1 no matter where we move them, so I'm not sure what you want. Like everyone has told you, if they fall to -2, thne they probably will be dropped. Minnesota is currently Even, why would they get moved? If they get up to +2 (which many have pointed out, the lower you are, the easier it is to add unexpected wins, so if they are undertiered that should quickly correct itself), then they will get moved up.
Also, medina accepts, and invites input from all comers. The issue is nobody but you sees any reason to move a team up that isn't even +1, let alone +2. That isn't rejecting outside input, that's rejecting a singular viewpoint, that stands at odds with all other views. And I think the longer you're here, the more you'll see the posters here (more often that not) underrate their own team, rather than the opposite, we are a bunch of sandbaggers. I personally refuse to believe MSU has a shot at beating UM, even at home, until/unless it happens.
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This is VERY MUCH the case. A lot of people expect homerism but instead what I see here is @mcwterps1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1590) has been telling me for months that I have his Terps too high and a month or so ago @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) was telling me that I had his Boilermakers too high.
The same thing happens in the football power rankings. It is almost always Buckeye fans that have Ohio State lowest, Spartan fans that have MSU lowest, etc.
I want to add, upthread somewhere @RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) said that it was fans of a few of the best teams seem to have all of the input. Well, I have a lot of input and I wish my Buckeyes were one of the best teams, but sadly they aren't.
Finally, it seems that @RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) thinks that Minnesota should move up. Ok, lets contemplate that. They currently have one positive upset (win at UW) and one negative upset (loss at IL). If we moved them up into tier-4:
- The win at UW would still be a positive upset +1
- The loss at Illinois would still be a negative upset -1 = even
- The home loss to Maryland would become a negative upset -1 = -1
So instead of being even with one positive and one negative upset, they would be -1 with one positive and two negative upsets. That wouldn't be logical.
Now lets look at Maryland: If we moved them down to tier-4:
- The NEUTRAL SITE loss to Illinois would still be a negative upset -1
- The road win at Minnesota would become a positive upset +1 = even
- The road win at Ohio State would become a positive upset +1 = +1
This one is a tougher call. If we moved Maryland down they would be +1 instead of the -1 that they are now. Right now it is basically a wash. They are -1 in tier-3 and would be +1 in tier-4. Here are their upcoming games:
- Their game against Wisconsin on Friday will not change anything because they are expected to lose. If they do, then they'll still be -1. If they win then they'll be even.
- Next Wednesday they are expected to win at Nebraska. If they don't, they'll get moved down (unless they beat UW because then the upsets would offset).
- Two weeks from yesterday they are expected to beat Purdue at home. If they don't then we'll have to decide whether to move Maryland down or Purdue up.
- On February 6 they are expected to lose at Michigan.
- On February 19 they are expected to lose at Iowa.
We'll monitor this and move them if/when it is appropriate.
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Additional point. If you moved Maryland down and kept Minnesota in tier-5, as you point out that makes Maryland +1 due to a road win. But it would also cause Minnesota to drop from even to -1, without even moving them.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/totally_t_bomb/status/1090633684049383424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1090633684049383424&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fmgoblog.com%2Fcontent%2Fbar-more-dust-solid-and-probably-named-black-rose-or-similar
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As I peek at this Rutgers/Indiana tilt I can't help but pose this here.
Back in 1990, and maybe a little later, IU was talked about in the same breath as Kansas, Kentucky, UNC, Dook and UCLA*. A blueblood program, with nary a doubt.
Fast-forward to today, and I wonder if IU, (* and UCLA), can ever regain that status. They have run through coaches left and right. They have fans that have expectations to be like they once were. Will they ever be like that? Has it been too long?
I mean, the kids looking for those blue blood offers today don't have any memory of IU being elite. None. 30 years. So?
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Maryland has potential, because the young kids will get better and better as the year goes on, but so will everyone else's kids.
Bruno is a man inside, and Cowan can create on his own, but beyond that, they all can struggle easily.
If they had 1 more older and consistent performer, I'd say they are worth the high tier. Even Jalen Smith has struggled.
They would have to score more consistently from other sources for me to be higher on them.
I am impressed with the defense though. There is length and speed to disrupt, but we miss too many layups and easy put backs, it's frustrating.
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Langford having season ending surgery. I'm guessing that ends any sort of title hopes. Just hoping for 2nd weekend now.
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This Maryland-UW game is weird.
Based on watching the first half of the first meeting and then going to be, I feel like there's a structural bad matchup buried somewhere in there. Great big, two shooters, good guard, that's a handful.
The line isn't out, but UW is a 6-point KenPom favorite. That feels high to me, and UW seems to have been getting a few breaks with bad opponent shooting and being hot from 3, so there might be a regression game soon.
The Badgers are likewise in a weird spot. After this, they're likewise projected to be favored by four at Minnesota. I'm leery of both of these. If they manage to win both somehow, they're in oddly good shape. At Mich is a loss, and MSU in Madison is trending closer, even before the Langford thing. UW was for a while projected to finish 6-4 per that system, and now it's up to 7-3. That seems a little bullish.
We'll have to see. If UW's shooter swing forward could shoot better, like not 0-7, that'd be nice.
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Indiana's upset loss at Rutgers rearranged the projections. Before I get to that, we now have three teams outside of +/-1:
- -2 Indiana. The Hoosiers have an upset home loss to Nebraska and an upset road loss to Rutgers. I'm not sure how we should treat that because my sense is that Nebraska was a much better team a couple of weeks ago when they won in Bloomington. Also, Rutgers is one of the +2 teams (see below) so it is possible that they should move up . . .
- +2 Illinois. The Illini have an upset home win over Minnesota and the upset neutral site win over Maryland. They are a bottom-tier team so having more positive than negative upsets is partially just a result of having more chances for positive variance. I don't think they are ready to be moved just yet.
- +2 Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have an upset home loss to Northwestern and THREE positive upsets:
- at Penn State
- vs Ohio State
- vs Indiana
If they hadn't lost the home game to Northwestern I would move them up but that is a troubling loss. Their three positive upsets obviously more than offset it but, like Illinois, Rutgers is in the bottom tier so part of the reason for having so many positive upsets is that they have LOTS of opportunities for positive variance.
I'm not 100% convinced that we need to move any teams just yet. I think I'll hold here until after this weekend's games.
The current tiers (with +/- variance*):
- Michigan State (EVEN), Michigan (-1)
- Purdue (EVEN)
- Maryland (-1)
- Wisconsin (+1, +2-1=+1), Iowa (-1)
- Ohio State (EVEN +1, -1), Minnesota (EVEN +1, -1), Indiana (-2)
- Northwestern (+1), Nebraska (EVEN +1, -1)
- Illinois (+2), Rutgers (+2, +3-1=+2), Penn State (-1)
*The team got there the shortest possible way unless indicated. Ie, if a team is +1 with just one positive upset I just put +1 but if they are +1 with two positive upsets and a negative upset I explain that.
Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 18-2/29-2 Michigan (wins tiebreaker with MSU based on record against PU)
- 18-2/27-4 Michigan State
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue
- 13-7/22-9 Maryland
- 12-8/20-11 Wisconsin
- 11-9/22-9 Iowa
- 9-11/19-12 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker with MN based on H2H, no game in Minneapolis)
- 9-11/19-12 Minnesota
- 8-12/17-14 Indiana
- 7-13/16-15 Northwestern
- 6-14/10-21 Illinois
- 5-15/12-18 Rutgers (wins tiebreaker over UNL based on H2H, no game in Lincoln)
- 5-15/15-16 Nebraska
- 2-18/9-22 Penn State
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As I peek at this Rutgers/Indiana tilt I can't help but pose this here.
Back in 1990, and maybe a little later, IU was talked about in the same breath as Kansas, Kentucky, UNC, Dook and UCLA*. A blueblood program, with nary a doubt.
Fast-forward to today, and I wonder if IU, (* and UCLA), can ever regain that status. They have run through coaches left and right. They have fans that have expectations to be like they once were. Will they ever be like that? Has it been too long?
I mean, the kids looking for those blue blood offers today don't have any memory of IU being elite. None. 30 years. So?
Man, how about Rutgers? 4-6 in conference and smack dab in the middle of the standings.
Anyways, I watch IU, because OSU and Gene Smith caught a lot of flak for not getting Archie Miller. It's not as if there is a wide berth between the two teams this season, and both teams are recruiting well. But Indiana might take a bit longer to get there - if Langford goes pro they lose their two top scorers and the rest of the team has looked a little lost at times. So I hope they don't make a rash decision if they have another average season next year. That's the fool's gold of basketball recruiting - getting a guy who will leave after one season doesn't help the program long term, and an average program needs long term help.
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In Lunardi's current Bracketology he has 10 B1G teams in the tournament. Question for the group, is that plausible?
My answer is that I don't think so. Lunardi's projection, as I understand it, is basically a "if the season ended today" thin but the season doesn't end today. There is a BTT at the end. The thing that I think makes it VERY unlikely for the B1G to get 10 teams in the tournament is that 7/10 and 8/9 in the final standings play each other and I think the losers of those games are usually going to be on the outside looking in.
Since we expanded to 14 teams this is how the #7 through #10 teams have finished (last year then the year before, etc):
- #7: 9-9, 10-8, 11-7, 9-9
- #8: 8-10, 10-8, 10-8, 9-9
- #9: 7-11, 8-10, 8-10, 8-10
- #10: 6-12, 7-11, 7-11, 6-12
The only years that I think there was much of a chance were 16/17 and 15-16 when the #7 and #8 seeds were far enough above .500 to be likely tournament teams even with an opening loss in the BTT. Then it theoretically could have happened if the #9 and #10 seeds had won their Thursday games. Still, the #9 and #10 seeds those years were two and four games below .500 in the league so they would probably have needed big upsets on Friday (over #1 and #2) in addition to beating 7/8 on Thursday. It seems to me, as a practical matter, that the league is almost capped at eight teams because it will always be difficult for the 7/10 and 8/9 losers to get in.
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As I peek at this Rutgers/Indiana tilt I can't help but pose this here.
Back in 1990, and maybe a little later, IU was talked about in the same breath as Kansas, Kentucky, UNC, Dook and UCLA*. A blueblood program, with nary a doubt.
Fast-forward to today, and I wonder if IU, (* and UCLA), can ever regain that status. They have run through coaches left and right. They have fans that have expectations to be like they once were. Will they ever be like that? Has it been too long?
I mean, the kids looking for those blue blood offers today don't have any memory of IU being elite. None. 30 years. So?
What always gets me is that Keady had a winning record against Knight. Painter has a winning record vs IU during his tenure. Beyond Knight, their tournament resume is no better than ours except for 2002, which was Mike Davis doing it with Knight's players.
Yet IU still consistently out-recruits Purdue, despite doing equal or less with the talent they get. And as you say, their recruits weren't alive for the 1988 title and they've now reached a point where no recruits will have been able to remember being alive during the 2002 Final Four.
Their history for the last 20 years has been shuffling coach after coach chasing old glory, and yet they still are seen as the automatic favorite for basically any recruit in the state.
Frustrating as a Purdue fan.
- -2 Indiana. The Hoosiers have an upset home loss to Nebraska and an upset road loss to Rutgers. I'm not sure how we should treat that because my sense is that Nebraska was a much better team a couple of weeks ago when they won in Bloomington. Also, Rutgers is one of the +2 teams (see below) so it is possible that they should move up . . .
I don't know that I'd move them down just yet, because the team has plenty of talent. They're not losing because of a lack of talent. This team has the players to turn this around.
But I think Hoosier fans should be a little concerned that the players have largely tossed in the towel on this season.
Anyways, I watch IU, because OSU and Gene Smith caught a lot of flak for not getting Archie Miller. It's not as if there is a wide berth between the two teams this season, and both teams are recruiting well. But Indiana might take a bit longer to get there - if Langford goes pro they lose their two top scorers and the rest of the team has looked a little lost at times. So I hope they don't make a rash decision if they have another average season next year. That's the fool's gold of basketball recruiting - getting a guy who will leave after one season doesn't help the program long term, and an average program needs long term help.
Delusional IU fans are already starting the Fire Archie train. Not sure they'll wait until next year for their rash decision lol...
But honestly, there's no explanation for this. This is not some ground-up rebuild like Brohm had with Purdue football. IU has a roster full of 5* and high 4* players. The pieces have to be there. Archie just can't seem to put them together.
The only thought is that to some extent Archie hasn't gotten "his" guys, and perhaps the style of ball he wants to play is hard to accomplish with Crean's guys. But if he's as good a coach as everyone said he was when he was hired, he should be able to work through that.
I do find this funny. Apparently this morning his Wikipedia page was edited to say "Though he was very successful at Dayton, Miller is regarded as one of the worst basketball coaches in Indiana's storied history." (And no, I didn't edit it lol.)
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The conference isn't getting 10 bids. No way. UNL and IU are in free-fall mode right now, and it's not looking good for either, moving forward.
UNL will have a tough time in Champaign this weekend, and then they have UMD at home and then PU on the road. IU goes to MSU, then has Iowa and OSU at home. I see a combined 0-6 for these two squads.
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It's weird Indiana is playing sloppy, but they are playing hard. They had multiple possessions late where they got multiple offensive rebounds, just to kick it back out for another missed 3.
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UMD / Wisconsin game SHOULD be just a good fun game.
Not a single Maryland fan believes Turgeon can beat a ranked team on the road.
I know, it's been done before, but he seems to sleep walk through road games. Like he's got a headache or something.
He schedules weak, wants to win home games, complain about youth, and sneak in to the tournament if lucky.
I would seriously be surprised if the Terps pulled it off.
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It's weird Indiana is playing sloppy, but they are playing hard. They had multiple possessions late where they got multiple offensive rebounds, just to kick it back out for another missed 3.
I'll admit I haven't seen a single IU game. Even the IU@Purdue game I was listening on the radio because I was on a road trip at the time.
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The conference isn't getting 10 bids. No way. UNL and IU are in free-fall mode right now, and it's not looking good for either, moving forward.
UNL will have a tough time in Champaign this weekend, and then they have UMD at home and then PU on the road. IU goes to MSU, then has Iowa and OSU at home. I see a combined 0-6 for these two squads.
I meant it more as a general, theoretical question. Could it happen?
That said, I agree, not this year.
The Hoosiers:
Indiana has lost seven straight and barring a miracle in East Lansing on Saturday it is about to be eight. What I am really interested in seeing is how they respond in the two games after MSU. After the road trip to play the Spartans the Hoosiers get two home games that could go either way, Iowa and Ohio State. Assuming that they lose to MSU, the Hoosiers will drop to 3-8 in conference. If they win the Iowa and Ohio State games they'll be 5-8 and have a shot at getting into the tourney with a decent finish. If they lose them both you can stick a fork in them because at 3-10 they'd be cooked.
The Cornhuskers:
Nebraska's losing streak isn't as long as Indiana's, only four games rather than seven but it still seems as bad or worse because they've lost easier games. I agree on their prognosis because they have just looked awful lately. If they drop these next three (@IL, vUMD, @PU) then I think they are toast as well.
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the day Copeland Jr. went down they were toast
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Surprised to see there is a ballgame going on in Happy Valley!
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Freakin' OT.
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This is another reason why I cannot take NET rankings seriously. Lunardi is following the company line and using the efficiency rankings over actual resumes. But most of us can see that out of the Big Ten teams....UNL and IU are in the most trouble. Not according to NET and Lunardi. MN is the last team in out of the B10 teams? That's ridiculous.
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And what's with these bad language settings? I'm scouring through my posts looking for anything that could possibly be throwing off the trigger.
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I expected Purdue to win a blowout. I only turned it on when I saw it was close. I only saw OT which Purdue dominated. What happened in regulation, did Purdue sleepwalk?
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I expected Purdue to win a blowout. I only turned it on when I saw it was close. I only saw OT which Purdue dominated. What happened in regulation, did Purdue sleepwalk?
Purdue mostly dominated statistically, with two exceptions:
- Offensive rebounds.
- Fouls / free throws.
The final metrics on fouls and free throws were a bit askew due to OT, where they continually fouled Nojel and he shot well. I remember once late in the second half where the foul differential was 21-12 and the Nittany Lions had shot nearly 20 more FTs than Purdue. Even with PSU intentionally fouling at the end, the foul differential was still 27-20 and the FT differential was 21-41 (attempts).
So, for whatever reason, PSU got a lot more trips to the charity stripe than Purdue.
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This is another reason why I cannot take NET rankings seriously. Lunardi is following the company line and using the efficiency rankings over actual resumes. But most of us can see that out of the Big Ten teams....UNL and IU are in the most trouble. Not according to NET and Lunardi. MN is the last team in out of the B10 teams? That's ridiculous.
Because I’m sill curious by what measure do you feel the old way rewarded resume in a manner the new one does not?
One’s RPI isn’t much of a measure of resume. It’s actually kinda terrible for that.
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Because I’m sill curious by what measure do you feel the old way rewarded resume in a manner the new one does not?
One’s RPI isn’t much of a measure of resume. It’s actually kinda terrible for that.
I'd say that RPI....using team winning percentage, opponent strength, and opponent SOS is far better than the NET efficiency tool which weighs each possession equally regardless of opponent, game score, time of game, etc....
It awards teams for keeping starters in longer and scoring more. Of course you want to win....but winning by double digits is some sort of bonus from what I've read. It's flawed as all hell. And again....when you have teams like Nebraska and Indiana ahead of Minnesota in the rankings....something is wrong with that ranking system. Especially if it is going to determine which teams make the NCAA field and what they are seeded.
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The tiers are not rankings...
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I doubt you'll agree but I am skeptical you'd be complaining about NET, Kenpom, or this board's tiers if they were more highly regarding Minnesota. It is common to cherry pick methods that serve our interests. But it's best not to do it as if those argument of ours are in objective pursuit and what is good/just/true. No need to post an answer; just self-reflect on that. (This is a healthy lifelong doublecheck and goes for all of us, of course.)
Meanwhile, RPI had significant problems that are, albeit not fully erased, at least diminished with NET. One of the most famous examples regarded gaming the rankings by never/rarely scheduling anyone in the lower 1/3 of RPI.
Because RPI so inflexibly dealt with opponent and opp-opp win%, if two teams were theoretically identical and played identically well against identical top halves of the schedule but whereas Team A played 3 teams ranked ~150 whereas Team B played that many ranked ~300, despite their identical records and theoretically identical strengths, they could be displaced by 15-20+ spots in ranking position. Which was dumb. And drove a lot of goofy seeding over the years.
It's also why, moreso in the first years than this one, Rutgers was such an RPI dead weight for the Big Ten.
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Watching the UCI@UCSB game. Two teams battling for 1st place in the Big West (I think). The tiny "Thunderdome" is empty. Seriously about 25% full.
Wife is a UCSB alum, and we're going to the UCSB@UCI game in 2 1/2 weeks. I'm going to try to be the loudest UCSB fan in the arena, and I'm not even a "real" fan...
Can't complain about courtside For $26/ticket though right? :)
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Purdue mostly dominated statistically, with two exceptions:
- Offensive rebounds.
- Fouls / free throws.
The final metrics on fouls and free throws were a bit askew due to OT, where they continually fouled Nojel and he shot well. I remember once late in the second half where the foul differential was 21-12 and the Nittany Lions had shot nearly 20 more FTs than Purdue. Even with PSU intentionally fouling at the end, the foul differential was still 27-20 and the FT differential was 21-41 (attempts).
So, for whatever reason, PSU got a lot more trips to the charity stripe than Purdue.
Ok, thanks. I was curious because OT looked exactly like what I expected the game to look like but I couldn't figure out how it got to OT.
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FWIW:
We are now exactly half way through the B1G BB season. Maryland has played 11 of their 20 games while Ohio State has only played nine of their 20. The other 12 teams have each played 10.
Thus, we have played 70 games and 11 have been "upsets" (meaning that the result was not what our adjusted tiers would project). That works out to one upset every 6.4 games.
This weekend (Friday-Sunday):
- Michigan at Iowa: We project a Michigan win on the road.
- Maryland at Wisconsin: We project a Wisconsin win at home.
- Indiana at Michigan State: We project a Michigan State win at home.
- Nebraska at Illinois: We project an Illinois win at home.
- Rutgers at Ohio State: We project an Ohio State win at home.
- Minnesota at Purdue: We project a Purdue win at home.
We project that the home team will win five of the six games. In the case of MSU, tOSU, and PU that is BOTH because we think that the home team is better AND because they are at home. In the cases of UW and IL we think the (slightly) inferior team will win because they are at home. In the case of Michigan, we think that they are better than Iowa by enough of a margin to overcome Iowa's home court advantage and win on the road.
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Ok, thanks. I was curious because OT looked exactly like what I expected the game to look like but I couldn't figure out how it got to OT.
FWIW, I think it was mentioned during the broadcast that two of the expected officials called in sick, so they had to find substitutes.
Which, given the weather, might have been random high school refs that were off that night...
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It awards teams for keeping starters in longer and scoring more. Of course you want to win....but winning by double digits is some sort of bonus from what I've read. It's flawed as all hell.
I don't claim to know the methodology of the various ranking schemes, but I generally tend to agree with this part.
Speaking anecdotally and as a homer, Maryland had a 30ish point lead against NU and a 37 point lead against Rutgers before pulling starters. They were playing efficiently :). I think the final margins were 18 and 15 in those games. If the effect of playing "less efficiently" with second-stringers pulled the ratings down, I agree that's silly.
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Watching the UCI@UCSB game. Two teams battling for 1st place in the Big West (I think). The tiny "Thunderdome" is empty. Seriously about 25% full.
Wife is a UCSB alum, and we're going to the UCSB@UCI game in 2 1/2 weeks. I'm going to try to be the loudest UCSB fan in the arena, and I'm not even a "real" fan...
Can't complain about courtside For $26/ticket though right? :)
My sister and two close cousins were Gauchos. Go team!
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My cousins from Lompoc were Gauchos
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I don't claim to know the methodology of the various ranking schemes, but I generally tend to agree with this part.
Speaking anecdotally and as a homer, Maryland had a 30ish point lead against NU and a 37 point lead against Rutgers before pulling starters. They were playing efficiently :). I think the final margins were 18 and 15 in those games. If the effect of playing "less efficiently" with second-stringers pulled the ratings down, I agree that's silly.
For NET, there’s a MOV factor up to 10. So win by 18, win by 48 is all the same.
The downside of efficiency is that it takes into account end of game production, but honestly that mostly comes out in the wash. It would matter if you rewarded a team for its own NET or KenPom.
Here’s the thing, you shouldn’t do that. You also shouldn’t reward a team for its own RPI. You should use NET or KenPom as a means for building resumes by looking at who you beat/lost to.
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I'd say that RPI....using team winning percentage, opponent strength, and opponent SOS is far better than the NET efficiency tool which weighs each possession equally regardless of opponent, game score, time of game, etc....
It awards teams for keeping starters in longer and scoring more. Of course you want to win....but winning by double digits is some sort of bonus from what I've read. It's flawed as all hell. And again....when you have teams like Nebraska and Indiana ahead of Minnesota in the rankings....something is wrong with that ranking system. Especially if it is going to determine which teams make the NCAA field and what they are seeded.
You point out efficiency isn’t nuanced, but would prefer using less nuanced numbers? Odd.
If you’d argue beating Nebraska Omaha is drastically different than beating Mount St Mary’s, RPI would tell you that difference matters a lot. That seems more problematic than the end of blowout shebengnas.
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Watching the UCI@UCSB game. Two teams battling for 1st place in the Big West (I think). The tiny "Thunderdome" is empty. Seriously about 25% full.
Wife is a UCSB alum, and we're going to the UCSB@UCI game in 2 1/2 weeks. I'm going to try to be the loudest UCSB fan in the arena, and I'm not even a "real" fan...
Can't complain about courtside For $26/ticket though right? :)
When I went to school, a high school buddy went there.
That Thanksgiving we joked I got the party school with sports, he got one with a beach (and more blondes)
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Just saw the end of regulation of PSU-Purdue, which brought up what has been IMO a consistent problem with review. They can only review who the ball went off of, but not a foul. Seems like this happens at least once a week. Yes, the ball went off PSU...only because the Purdue defender slapped 100% arm and got none of the ball. But because they can't review for a foul, they just have to say PSU touched the ball last. I think it's the biggest issue with using replay in that scenario, but I don't want officials to be able to call fouls on review, so I'm not sure what the answer is.
All in all, it may have been the highest scoring bad offensive game I've ever seen. PSU kept dribbling into trouble and getting bailed out with fouls, and Purdue just kept jacking up awful threes that on that night were largely going in. I like at one point the announcers talked about PSUs "adjustments" on Edwards, leading to him making just one three in the second half. They did nothing different, just if you rely on shooting doible teamed threes from five feet behind the line, you probably aren't going to keep making them.
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When I went to school, a high school buddy went there.
That Thanksgiving we joked I got the party school with sports, he got one with a beach (and more blondes)
As mentioned in another thread, she and I went to UCSB a few weekends ago and it was my first time seeing the campus. That was the day of the IU@Purdue game when I saw video on social media of fans trudging through a blizzard to get into the stadium. It was 70 and sunny in SB... A little different than West Lafayette!
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Just saw the end of regulation of PSU-Purdue, which brought up what has been IMO a consistent problem with review. They can only review who the ball went off of, but not a foul. Seems like this happens at least once a week. Yes, the ball went off PSU...only because the Purdue defender slapped 100% arm and got none of the ball. But because they can't review for a foul, they just have to say PSU touched the ball last. I think it's the biggest issue with using replay in that scenario, but I don't want officials to be able to call fouls on review, so I'm not sure what the answer is.
Yeah, a weird game from the refs. That's why I was offering the refs and the foul disparity as an observation, but not overly griping about the refs "favoring" PSU, even though the foul/FT disparity was LARGE. Purdue really got away with one there at the end that likely would have decided the game if it had been called.
I think the refs were just terrible in this one in general.
All in all, it may have been the highest scoring bad offensive game I've ever seen. PSU kept dribbling into trouble and getting bailed out with fouls, and Purdue just kept jacking up awful threes that on that night were largely going in. I like at one point the announcers talked about PSUs "adjustments" on Edwards, leading to him making just one three in the second half. They did nothing different, just if you rely on shooting doible teamed threes from five feet behind the line, you probably aren't going to keep making them.
Honestly, Purdue relied too much on the 3 ball, but when you're shooting 55% from behind the arc, can you blame them?
One of the issues, though, is that with Tre Williams in foul trouble so much, we didn't develop as much of a post game as we normally would. And beyond that, it seemed like we weren't getting a lot of foul calls on drives, so Carsen and Nojel didn't drive to the rim as much as usual. PSU was just driving consistently and WAS getting the foul calls, so it seemed like they saw that and kept doing it deliberately.
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The whole second half it felt like a game we were going to lose because our offense seemed to be just jacking 3's and we couldn't get a stop and a rebound at the same time. Evan B did not look good last night, we lose a lot of defensive rebounding with him in there and on the offensive end he doesn't really stretch the floor with an outside shot like I was hoping he could do. Happy to get out with a win, but damn I am just still not sure how we did it.
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So I am interested it what others think about Michigan. I am getting the sense that they may have peaked too early. I have watched some of their recent games and just not blown me away. The OSU game was a tough one and if OSU could hit a 3 or not do stupid things it would have been a lot closer. They just don't seem as dominant as they were earlier. Oddly enough, even though they stomped us earlier in the year, I would like to see them in the BTT before seeing Mich St again. I Michigan caught us at a good time for them, but they don't scare me.
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He hosts a great college basketball podcast. I would highly recommend it.
What is the name of the podcast? I searched and couldn't find it.
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So I am interested it what others think about Michigan. I am getting the sense that they may have peaked too early. I have watched some of their recent games and just not blown me away. The OSU game was a tough one and if OSU could hit a 3 or not do stupid things it would have been a lot closer. They just don't seem as dominant as they were earlier. Oddly enough, even though they stomped us earlier in the year, I would like to see them in the BTT before seeing Mich St again. I Michigan caught us at a good time for them, but they don't scare me.
As an Ohio State fan that game was frustrating to watch. Michigan's D has been lights out and in that game the Buckeyes shot only 36.5% including a dismal 23.8% from behind the arc but, watching the game, it seemed like the Buckeyes got plenty of open looks and just couldn't hit the broad side of a barn from the inside. I don't remember when it was during the game but the announcers at one point talked about Ohio State's misses and commented that the possession was good from Ohio State's perspective, they got the look they wanted, they just flat missed. I didn't feel like Michigan's D was suffocating, I just felt like the Buckeyes couldn't shoot straight.
Not that Ohio State necessarily would have won, but the game would have at least been competitive if they could have made a normal % of reasonably open looks from long range. Ironically, our post guy was 2-2 behind the arc but the rest of the team went 3-19:
- 1-2 Andre Wesson
- 1-3 Muhammad
- 0-2 Jallow
- 0-1 Jackson
- 0-3 Ahrens
- 1-5 Washington Jr.
- 0-3 Woods
It probably wouldn't have mattered because the Buckeyes lost by 16 so they would have needed to make six more threes to win and 11-21 isn't very realistic. That said, if they had made just two more they'd have been at a pretty reasonable 7-21 and lost by 10 or if they had made three or four more they would have been around 40% and been within 4-7 points.
On the other part of what went wrong for Ohio State, the Buckeyes committed 19 turnovers. Yikes! You aren't going to win a lot of games doing that. Some of that is obviously a credit to Michigan's defense but I also thought there were a lot of "stupid things" done by Ohio State. A fair number of those turnovers were just stupid unforced errors that I can't explain.
All-in-all, I view the Buckeyes as a borderline tournament team. My guess is that when the season ends Ohio State is either going to be a 8-11 seed type "barely-made-it" team or a high seed in the NIT. Going into the Michigan game, at their place no less, I thought of the Wolverines as a #1 or #2 seed type team and expected them to run the Buckeyes out of the gym. Coming from that perspective I was not impressed with the Wolverines. I felt like the Buckeyes had a terrible shooting night and made a bunch of dumb mistakes and otherwise could have won. If you had told me before the game that Ohio State was going to have 19 turnovers and miss a slew of open three-pointers I would have guessed that the Wolverines would win by 30+.
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What is the name of the podcast? I searched and couldn't find it.
One Shining Podcast
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(1) Welp
(2) Beilein's worst reputation with M fans is for the 2-foul autobench for the rest of the 1st half always and no matter what. I think tonight proves how that just isn't viable with Teske this year. The team truly requires him, probably on O but absolutely on D. And he averages 3 per game. Far be it for me to know better, but I think Beilein would do way better if he were riskier in this regard.
Unless there's something about his strategy he is hiding by being ultra conservative (that might be more likely figured out in deep foul trouble and impact future games -- which seems super far-fetched), his autobench tendency makes no sense to me.
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This is the same idea:
https://mobile.twitter.com/bauncechill/status/1091498802131947520
Beilein is smart but no one is infallible. He has also never given a good explanation for the autobench policy. My compound question is (a) does he have a reason for being more conservative in this specific way than any other coach in america [of course he does] and (b) is it a good reason that no one else understands or is he just wrong?
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^^^ Gard coaches much the same way. He learned from Bo. These guys are all cut from the same cloth.
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LOL
Okay.
I see where this is going.
Typical. Thought it might be a good game.
If you're inside the arc under the basket, there is no charge.
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Most missed layups of any team in the country.
Never seen so many 2ft misses in my life.
2 BS calls on Fernando sealed this game, as well as abysmal FT shooting. Don't care about the others called on the Terps, those against Fernando were the worst I've seen all year.
B1G refs just said, "here you go". This should level the field.
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LOL
Okay.
I see where this is going.
Typical. Thought it might be a good game.
If you're inside the arc under the basket, there is no charge.
A point of clarification that I’m surprised tv guys don’t make more. All charges are offensive fouls, not all offensive fouls are charges. The shoulder dip and forearm push off are offensive fouls, while charges are about positioning. That was a shoulder dip, so not a charge, so the circle doesn’t factor. It was also a soft call.
If I were you, I’d be mad. Maybe some at the refs, though it was kind of the inverse of the free-throw disparity at your place in the eventual wash of swing-backs hours costs Wisconsin it’s fourth-best player.
I would be more pissed at some combination of the coach and players. Maryland l was playing awesome, but couldn’t quite build the lead up enough. Wisconsin hung tough, even when it wasn’t playing that well, whethered a mess of missed free throws, and finally it’s threes came. That was winnable, and where I you, I would be pissed.
That said, that was a game I was profoundly nervous about, and I am just pretty pleased to have a win. If Wisconsin can get revenge on Minnesota in the barn, things would set up really nicely.
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This is the same idea:
https://mobile.twitter.com/bauncechill/status/1091498802131947520
Beilein is smart but no one is infallible. He has also never given a good explanation for the autobench policy. My compound question is (a) does he have a reason for being more conservative in this specific way than any other coach in america [of course he does] and (b) is it a good reason that no one else understands or is he just wrong?
The theory goes that players in that kind of foul trouble tend to defend tentatively, which lessens their overall effectiveness. I think there is some evidence to that end, but not a ton.
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With UM losing and going to -2 in the tiers I think getting rid of tier at the top might make the most sense to get them to even with a single drop. Unless Im missing some unintended thing that this would mess up.
1. Michigan State(Even)
2. Purdue(+1), Michigan(Even)
3. Wisconsin(-1), Maryland(-1), Iowa(-1)
Or if you want to reshuffle a little move Purdue up also and it gets both Pur and Wis to even
1. Michigan State(Even), Purdue(Even)
2. Michigan(Even)
3. Wisconsin(Even), Maryland(-1), Iowa(-1)
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A point of clarification that I’m surprised tv guys don’t make more. All charges are offensive fouls, not all offensive fouls are charges. The shoulder dip and forearm push off are offensive fouls, while charges are about positioning. That was a shoulder dip, so not a charge, so the circle doesn’t factor. It was also a soft call.
If I were you, I’d be mad. Maybe some at the refs, though it was kind of the inverse of the free-throw disparity at your place in the eventual wash of swing-backs hours costs Wisconsin it’s fourth-best player.
I would be more pissed at some combination of the coach and players. Maryland l was playing awesome, but couldn’t quite build the lead up enough. Wisconsin hung tough, even when it wasn’t playing that well, whethered a mess of missed free throws, and finally it’s threes came. That was winnable, and where I you, I would be pissed.
That said, that was a game I was profoundly nervous about, and I am just pretty pleased to have a win. If Wisconsin can get revenge on Minnesota in the barn, things would set up really nicely.
That, and the block on the other end, were clean.
The guy under the basket was in the air, so a bump goes a long way, but he should have access to the rim, straight up.
Either way, the defense in zone stalled Wisconsin, so I'm only mad about the lack of offense, which ended with those 2 crap calls.
Didn't even notice until later that Hero Happ raked and drug Morsell while diving for that ball.
There were bad calls the other way, but the Bruno ghost fouls were costly.
Wisconsin couldn't miss late though.
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That, and the block on the other end, were clean.
The guy under the basket was in the air, so a bump goes a long way, but he should have access to the rim, straight up.
Either way, the defense in zone stalled Wisconsin, so I'm only mad about the lack of offense, which ended with those 2 crap calls.
Didn't even notice until later that Hero Happ raked and drug Morsell while diving for that ball.
There were bad calls the other way, but the Bruno ghost fouls were costly.
Wisconsin couldn't miss late though.
We might be talking about different ones. I think there was a little shoulder nudge. One I'd be salty about if it were reversed, but one I understand.
I never liked the zone, though I'd have to go back and look. UW teams usually murder zones, and UW's offense did pretty well.
One thing that also struck me. UW had lots of chances it couldn't capitalize on. I kept worrying and worrying that would bit them, but Maryland didn't do a good job creating any space with that. It felt a little like the opposite of the Michigan game, where UM almost always had an answer. Is that on Turgeon? Maybe?
An interesting bit of reference. That was the fifth worst offensive day and fourth-worst defensive day Maryland has had. Wisconsin had its eighth best offensive day, seventh-worst defensive day. I woulda been more made about the defense in your shoes, though the offense wasn't great. Granted, I'm a UW fan, so I assume to beat them, it's more likely a game where UW's offense is bad, than an opponent's is good (the stats bear that out).
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The Bruno ghost falls were costly for sure. Thankfully, UW was able to manage through the ghost fouls on Nate Reuvers in the end though. He's in a funk right now but it's still tough to lose a big guy when you're playing a huge team like Maryland.
That Terp team is going to be a load next season, assuming all those kids stay.
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Heh. Just took a look at the standings. 4th place. Let's see if they can hold on to that, or better.
On to Minnesota.
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With UM losing and going to -2 in the tiers I think getting rid of tier at the top might make the most sense to get them to even with a single drop. Unless Im missing some unintended thing that this would mess up.
1. Michigan State(Even)
2. Purdue(+1), Michigan(Even)
3. Wisconsin(-1), Maryland(-1), Iowa(-1)
Or if you want to reshuffle a little move Purdue up also and it gets both Pur and Wis to even
1. Michigan State(Even), Purdue(Even)
2. Michigan(Even)
3. Wisconsin(Even), Maryland(-1), Iowa(-1)
I could get behind this one. Nice and clean. Let's see what the others have to say.
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The Bruno ghost falls were costly for sure. Thankfully, UW was able to manage through the ghost fouls on Nate Reuvers in the end though. He's in a funk right now but it's still tough to lose a big guy when you're playing a huge team like Maryland.
That Terp team is going to be a load next season, assuming all those kids stay.
Bruno is gone. He's the offense. That's why it was costly.
Did you see all the missed layups and put backs?
That's why I'm not high on this squad.
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I could get behind this one. Nice and clean. Let's see what the others have to say.
Tentatively, I agree with the two of you but I will not be updating until after the weekend so we'll have to see what else changes.
That PU/M game was a complete blowout but right now I think Purdue is the better team.
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Was just looking over some Maryland/Wisconsin stats. In Maryland's home game, they shot 29 free throws to UW's 6. In Wisconsin's home game, they shot 23 free throws to UMD's 8.
Something has to change here. This is complete BS.
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I've read but haven't confirmed independently, that the substitute refs for Purdue @ PSU were the refs that called UM @ Iowa.
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Tentatively, I agree with the two of you but I will not be updating until after the weekend so we'll have to see what else changes.
That PU/M game was a complete blowout but right now I think Purdue is the better team.
I wonder if it's the inverse of what happened last year. Purdue with the Taiwan trip and four senior starters were cohesive to start the year, but other younger teams caught up as the season progressed.
This year Purdue was very young to start, and looked it, but now they're developing into a cohesive unit.
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Michigan's lack of depth was obviously exposed last night. I thought by this point in the year, at least one of the other freshmen would've cracked the rotation, but since that hasn't really happened (except by necessity like last night), I doubt that'll change for the rest of the year. Michigan's defense is usually good when Teske is in the game, so I'm not too concerned about that, but it goes to show how important it is for him to be on the court.
As for the problems with the offense, there are just too many bad shots being taken. I've said this before, but Poole is struggling, Matthews doing too much, Simpson's outside shooting is inconsistent, while Brooks and Livers don't do enough. Fortunately, Brazdeikis is playing well, again, and Teske has been rather consistent.
Onto Rutgers, though. It'll probably be closer than it should be, but the defense should shut them down so that 60 points should be enough to win.
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47-24 power 5 game in a 30 sec era? Come on. I don't mean to do a drive by on a hoops thread but the college game leaves a lot to be desired more often than not.
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Healthy win for the buckeyes, powered by Kaleb Wesson scoring 21 in the first half.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dyba1WxW0AAby2y.jpg)
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Was just looking over some Maryland/Wisconsin stats. In Maryland's home game, they shot 29 free throws to UW's 6. In Wisconsin's home game, they shot 23 free throws to UMD's 8.
Something has to change here. This is complete BS.
Is what it is I guess. We lost by 8.
When you see the offensive rebounding, and the shooting percentage, knowing how many easy put backs we SHOULD have made, and the poor FT shooting with what opportunities we did have, would have kept us within a point or in the lead, even without Bruno on the bench.
It was fairly even in the other categories, so the key was those 2 quick fouls on Bruno. The offense really does go through him, and picking up the 3rd within 2 minutes sealed our fate.
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Michigan's lack of depth was obviously exposed last night. I thought by this point in the year, at least one of the other freshmen would've cracked the rotation, but since that hasn't really happened (except by necessity like last night), I doubt that'll change for the rest of the year. Michigan's defense is usually good when Teske is in the game, so I'm not too concerned about that, but it goes to show how important it is for him to be on the court.
As for the problems with the offense, there are just too many bad shots being taken. I've said this before, but Poole is struggling, Matthews doing too much, Simpson's outside shooting is inconsistent, while Brooks and Livers don't do enough. Fortunately, Brazdeikis is playing well, again, and Teske has been rather consistent.
Onto Rutgers, though. It'll probably be closer than it should be, but the defense should shut them down so that 60 points should be enough to win.
It’s weird, after UW’s run to the title game, I’m mostly convinced depth is a highly overrated thing. Granted, it’ll bite you every so often.
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So, the entire MSU team slaps the floor when the ball is inbounded at the second half?
Anyway, the Indiana player puts his arm inside the arm of the MSU player, and the MSU player gets the foul?
Odd.
I think the tall white bald ref graduated from MSU, BTW.
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McQuaid looks like the DPOY to me.
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Is what it is I guess. We lost by 8.
When you see the offensive rebounding, and the shooting percentage, knowing how many easy put backs we SHOULD have made, and the poor FT shooting with what opportunities we did have, would have kept us within a point or in the lead, even without Bruno on the bench.
It was fairly even in the other categories, so the key was those 2 quick fouls on Bruno. The offense really does go through him, and picking up the 3rd within 2 minutes sealed our fate.
The homecourt officiating is particularly pronounced at Wisconsin, Iowa, and Indiana for whatever reason. This season has been no different, at least with Michigan games, except for the Indiana game. Michigan still played bad in both of their losses, and good officiating wouldn't have changed the outcome, but both games would've been closer.
Incredible upset by Indiana tonight, especially with Morgan getting injured. The BigTen race just got a lot more interesting.
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Worst regular season loss since the 2009 team lost to both Northwestern and PSU. That team still won the conference by 4 games and reached the Final 4. Don't see that here, but worth not freaking out over.
On one hand, Indiana outrebounded MSU, and shot 50% from 3, against the top rebounding and top 3 point shooting team in the conference. So it's not like they found something to exploit, they just played really well. And they got two guys back, one from injury, one from suspension, who combined for 59 minutes, 23 points, 11 rebounds and 9 assists. That is a better Indiana team.
On the other hand, all the fears about the Langford loss are coming to a head. Teams that stay perimeter orientated exploit the fact that McQuaid might be Big Ten DPOTY, but beyond him, our guards and wings aren't good defensively without Langford. Also forces McQuaid to give too much on that end of the court, and can't ever play on the ball offensively, which means Loyer has to play. I'm not willing to write him off completely for his size yet, but he needs to learn how to play around it, and get an Offseason or two in the weight room. He got absolutely abused tonight. He has no business being on the court now.
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Also, shooting 9-21 from 3, but 8-22 from the line can't be ignored. Ward was worthless. At least against Maryland he scored no points because he barely played with foul trouble, and wasn't hurting or helping us. He actively hurt us tonight
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The homecourt officiating is particularly pronounced at Wisconsin, Iowa, and Indiana for whatever reason. This season has been no different, at least with Michigan games, except for the Indiana game. Michigan still played bad in both of their losses, and good officiating wouldn't have changed the outcome, but both games would've been closer.
Incredible upset by Indiana tonight, especially with Morgan getting injured. The BigTen race just got a lot more interesting.
Michigan was 5-11 in free throws in Madison this year. In the same game, UW was 7-9. So...
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Also, shooting 9-21 from 3, but 8-22 from the line can't be ignored. Ward was worthless. At least against Maryland he scored no points because he barely played with foul trouble, and wasn't hurting or helping us. He actively hurt us tonight
1-9 from the line is brutal. There's your game.
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Purdue with the opportunity to join the Michigan schools in first place.
Down 8 at home to Minnesota with about 15 to play.
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Make that 11 ugh .
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Carsen! Nice of you to join us today!
Purdue on a 21-4 run, up 4. Huge response. The team needed to step up.
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Boilers survive. Tied for 1st.
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Badgers play the Goophers in MPLS Wednesday. Pretty big game for both teams.
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Updated for this weekend's games, the tiers are (with +/-):
- MSU -1, Michigan -2
- Purdue even
- Maryland -1
- Wisconsin +1, Iowa even (+1,-1)
- Minnesota even (+1,-1), tOSU even (+1,-1), Indiana -1 (+1,-2)
- Northwestern +1, Nebraska even (+1,-1)
- Illinois +2, Rutgers +2 (+3,-1), PSU -1
So the teams outside of +/-1 are:
- +2 Illinois
- +2 Rutgers
- -2 Michigan
I don't know that we necessarily need to make any changes right now. Michigan is -2 but they are a tier-1 team that started out with 19 projected wins. That is a LOT of opportunities for negative variance, it happens. Rutgers and Illinois are the inverse. They are tier-7 teams that started the year with 16-17 projected losses. That is a LOT of opportunities for positive variance, it happens.
Thoughts?
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If we don't make any changes to the tiers (see above), the updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:
- 17-3/28-3 Michigan (wins tiebreaker over MSU and PU based on H2H2H, no game in W. Lafayette)
- 17-3/26-4 Michigan State (second in H2H2H tiebreaker with M and PU)
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue (last in H2H2H tiebreaker with M and MSU)
- 13-7/22-9 Maryland
- 12-8/20-11 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker with IA based on H2H, won in Iowa City)
- 12-8/23-8 Iowa
- 9-11/18-13 Indiana (wins tiebreaker with MN and tOSU based on record against the 17-3 teams)
- 9-11/19-12 Minnesota (second in tiebreaker with IU and tOSU: loses to IU based on record against the 17-3 teams, beats tOSU based on record against the 12-8 teams)
- 9-11/19-12 Ohio State
- 7-13/16-15 Northwestern
- 6-14/10-21 Illinois
- 5-15/12-18 Rutgers (wins tiebreaker with UNL based on H2H, no game in Lincoln)
- 5-15/15-16 Nebraska
- 2-18/9-22 Penn State
Match-ups at the BTT in the United Center would be:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019:
- #11 Illinois vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Rutgers vs #13 Nebraska, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14, 2019 (Pi Day):
- #5 Wisconsin vs IL/PSU, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Iowa vs RU/UNL, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Indiana vs #10 Northwestern, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Minnesota vs #9 Ohio State, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15, 2019:
- #1 Michigan vs MN/tOSU, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Michigan State vs IU/NU, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Purdue vs IA/RU/UNL, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Maryland vs UW/IL/PSU, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16, 2019:
- M/MN/tOSU vs UMD/UW/IL/PSU, 1pm on CBS
- MSU/IU/NU vs PU/IA/RU/UNL, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17, 2019:
- M/MN/tOSU/UMD/UW/IL/PSU vs MSU/IU/NU/PU/IA/RU/UNL, 3:30pm on CBS
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Updated for this weekend's games, the tiers are (with +/-):
- MSU -1, Michigan -2
- Purdue even
- Maryland -1
- Wisconsin +1, Iowa even (+1,-1)
- Minnesota even (+1,-1), tOSU even (+1,-1), Indiana -1 (+1,-2)
- Northwestern +1, Nebraska even (+1,-1)
- Illinois +2, Rutgers +2 (+3,-1), PSU -1
So the teams outside of +/-1 are:
- +2 Illinois
- +2 Rutgers
- -2 Michigan
I don't know that we necessarily need to make any changes right now. Michigan is -2 but they are a tier-1 team that started out with 19 projected wins. That is a LOT of opportunities for negative variance, it happens. Rutgers and Illinois are the inverse. They are tier-7 teams that started the year with 16-17 projected losses. That is a LOT of opportunities for positive variance, it happens.
Thoughts?
I'm thinking PSU could be alone at the bottom, and I still don't think we need #2. MSU, M and PU belong in the same tier. What havoc does that cause though?
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I'm thinking PSU could be alone at the bottom, and I still don't think we need #2. MSU, M and PU belong in the same tier. What havoc does that cause though?
Combining tier-1 and tier-2 would only change the projection for Michigan and Michigan State road games at Maryland. Michigan State doesn't play at Maryland this year so no change there. Michigan does but not until the penultimate game of the regular season on March 3.
At the bottom it isn't clear to me what you mean. Are you suggesting that we create a new bottom tier with just PSU in it or that we move ILL and RU up into the tier with NU and UNL?
Moving Penn State down into their own tier would impact the projection for PSU home games against NU and UNL. They don't host NU this year and they haven't hosted UNL yet.
Alternatively, moving IL and RU up (into the NU/UNL tier) would impact the projection for their home games against IU, tOSU, and MN:
- IL v IU: 3/7
- IL v tOSU: L 77-67 (technically neutral site but treated as an IL home game because that is what it replaced)
- IL v MN: W 95-68
- RU v IU: W 66-58
- RU v tOSU: W 64-61
- RU v MN: 2/24
So the Illini are 1-1 in these games with one to play. The Scarlet Knights are 2-0 with one to play.
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I was thinking of moving RU and UI up a tier, leaving PSU in the basement.
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I was thinking of moving RU and UI up a tier, leaving PSU in the basement.
Proposed new tiers with +/- (if I don't say, the team is even):
- Purdue, MSU-1, Michigan-2
- Maryland-1
- Wisconsin+1, Iowa (+1,-1)
- tOSU+2, Minnesota+1, Indiana (+1,-1)
- Northwestern +1, Illinois (+1-1), Nebraska (+1,-1), Rutgers (+1,-1)
- PSU-1
I'm not positive on all of those +/- figures because there are some changes I need to work through. I think that is it.
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Massey Composite
5. MSU
7. UM
9. PU
16. Wisc
21. MD
24. IA
34. OSU
35. UNL
45. IU
47. MN
63. NU
88. PSU
98. RU
99. IL
I think you can almost group MSU/UM/PU in tier 1 right now. While Purdue didn't look as good in December, I'd say they're playing every bit as strongly as those two teams right now. Then you have an empty tier 2, but I think instead of keeping it empty you remove it and move everyone else up.
Wisconsin has been surging as well. I'd find it easy to move them up into Tier 2 and move Maryland [who has been sliding] down into tier 3. After that, everything looks easier. I do think Nebraska is in freefall relative to the composite rankings, so they will get knocked heavily. So perhaps something like:
- MSU, Michigan, Purdue
- Wisconsin
- Maryland, Iowa
- Ohio State
- Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern
- Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois
That erases MN@IL as an upset, as well as IU@RU... Not sure what other havoc it would cause though.
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Minnesota move up??
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Badgers play the Goophers in MPLS Wednesday. Pretty big game for both teams.
Do not like this game. Gophers looked feisty Sunday at Purdue. Numbers like UW, but I’m on edge about it.
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Massey Composite
5. MSU
7. UM
9. PU
16. Wisc
21. MD
24. IA
34. OSU
35. UNL
45. IU
47. MN
63. NU
88. PSU
98. RU
99. IL
I think you can almost group MSU/UM/PU in tier 1 right now. While Purdue didn't look as good in December, I'd say they're playing every bit as strongly as those two teams right now. Then you have an empty tier 2, but I think instead of keeping it empty you remove it and move everyone else up.
Wisconsin has been surging as well. I'd find it easy to move them up into Tier 2 and move Maryland [who has been sliding] down into tier 3. After that, everything looks easier. I do think Nebraska is in freefall relative to the composite rankings, so they will get knocked heavily. So perhaps something like:
- MSU, Michigan, Purdue
- Wisconsin
- Maryland, Iowa
- Ohio State
- Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern
- Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois
That erases MN@IL as an upset, as well as IU@RU... Not sure what other havoc it would cause though.
I always wait to post it until Tuesday, because it takes a minute to get all the rankings in.
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- MSU, Michigan, Purdue
- Wisconsin
- Maryland, Iowa
- Ohio State
- Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern
- Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois
1. MSU, UM, PU
2. UMD
3. UW, IOWA
4. OSU, MN
5. UNL, IU, NU, UI, RU
6. PSU
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Do not like this game. Gophers looked feisty Sunday at Purdue. Numbers like UW, but I’m on edge about it.
It was my first real time watching Minnesota. If you saw the game, Painter did something he's never done all season--put Tre Williams and Matt Haarms on the court at the same time. Our other PFs (Grady Eifert and Aaron Wheeler) just couldn't contain Minnesota's second big very well, and Minnesota is a team that plays 2 bigs. Eifert is strong, but he's only 6'6" and not particularly athletic, so he has a pretty big disadvantage if the other team is throwing a second big who is 6'9" or taller. Wheeler is 6'9" and athletic, but is a beanpole so doesn't have the strength to deal with very strong PFs. Minnesota's front line reminded me a bit of the Hammons/Haas/Biggie season for Purdue, where we could just throw absurd size at any team in the country.
I don't know who UW has beyond Happ, or if there's enough depth of big men to play two together... But the effectiveness of the Gophers playing two big men together except when Purdue put two out there to match was a surprise takeaway for me.
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1. MSU, UM, PU
2. UMD
3. UW, IOWA
4. OSU, MN
5. UNL, IU, NU, UI, RU
6. PSU
I realize that IU lost a slew of games prior to their big upset but they just beat MSU and they have a road win over PSU so we aren't moving them down to tier-5 yet. What will be interesting is to see how the Hoosiers do in their next two games (vIA, vtOSU). For now both are projected wins but I think either one could go either way so we'll wait and see on the Hoosiers.
There is significant debate among the posters here as to whether tier-2 should be Maryland or Wisconsin. That makes a difference for home games against tier-1 teams and road games against tier-4 teams:
Maryland:
- vM: 2/16
- vMSU: not played
- vPU: 2/12
- @tOSU: W 75-61
- @MN: W 82-67
They are 2-0 with two to play, they stay in tier-2 at least for now.
Wisconsin:
- vM: W 64-54
- vMSU: 2/12
- vPU: L 84-80
- @tOSU: 3/10
- @MN: 2/6
They are 1-1 with three to play, we'll keep them in tier-3 at least for now. If they win in Minneapolis on Wednesday we'll move them up.
Thus, for the time being, the updated tiers are:
- Purdue, MSU-1, Michigan-2
- Maryland-1
- Wisconsin+1 (+2,-1), Iowa
- tOSU+2, Minnesota+1, Indiana (+1,-1)
- Northwestern+1, Illinois (+1,-1), Rutgers (+1,-1), Nebraska (+1,-1)
- PSU-1
Thus, the updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:
- 17-3/26-5 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker over PU based on record against M)
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue
- 16-4/27-4 Michigan
- 14-6/23-8 Maryland
- 12-8/20-11 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker over IA based on H2H, won in Iowa City)
- 12-8/23-8 Iowa
- 9-11/19-12 Ohio State
- 8-12/18-13 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker over IU based on H2H, no game in Bloomington)
- 8-12/17-14 Indiana
- 7-13/11-20 Illinois (wins tiebreaker over NU based on record against Maryland)
- 7-13/16-15 Northwestern
- 6-14/13-17 Rutgers
- 5-15/15-16 Nebraska
- 2-18/9-22 Penn State
The projected match-ups at the BTT in Chicago are:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Rutgers vs #13 Nebraska, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):
- #5 Wisconsin vs NU/PSU. 3pm on BTN
- #6 Iowa vs RU/UNL, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Ohio State vs #10 Illinois, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Minnesota vs #9 Indiana, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan State vs MN/IU, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Purdue vs tOSU/IL, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Michigan vs IA/RU/UNL, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Maryland vs UW/NU/PSU, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- MSU/MN/IU vs UMD/UW/NU/PSU, 1pm on CBS
- PU/tOSU/IL vs M/IA/RU/UNL, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- MSU/MN/IU/UMD/UW/NU/PSU vs PU/tOSU/IL/M/IA/RU/UNL, 3:30pm on CBS
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It was my first real time watching Minnesota. If you saw the game, Painter did something he's never done all season--put Tre Williams and Matt Haarms on the court at the same time.
I read a little bit more about this. Painter said that he realized in the game that the defensive rotations just weren't working at all. He had first tried to invert the 4/5 matchups defensively, but it didn't accomplish what he needed. So he put both bigs in.
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Based on this being predictive I would move Wiscy to tier II. The rest looks good.
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Based on this being predictive I would move Wiscy to tier II. The rest looks good.
I think you are right, but I am waiting for the result of Wisconsin's game at MN tomorrow night. In tier-2 they should win. In tier-3 they should lose. I think they will win and, if they do, I'll move them up. However, if they lose, they'll need to stay in tier-3.
There is a case for moving Michigan-2 down and/or Ohio State+2 up.
Michigan:
The difference between tier-1 and tier-2 is the projected result in road games against tier-3 teams:
The thing is that if we move Wisconsin up (see above) then that will no longer be a negative upset.
Ohio State:
The difference between tier-3 and tier-4 is the projected result in home games against tier-2 and road games against tier-5:
- vUMD: L 75-61
- @NU: 3/6
- @IL: W 77-67 (actually neutral site but treated as the road game that it replaced)
- @RU: L 64-61
- @UNL: W 70-60
The Buckeyes are 2-2 in these games with one more to play. In tier-4 they are +2 but in tier-3 they would be -2.
My plan at this point:
If Wisconsin wins in Minneapolis on Wednesday I'll move the Badgers up and leave the Wolverines where they are. If the Badgers lose in Minneapolis on Wednesday I'll move Michigan down and leave Wisconsin where they are.
For Ohio State, I'm going to leave them for now. If they acquire a negative upset then they'll move to a net -1 and we'll leave them in tier-4. If they acquire another positive upset then they'll move to a net +3 and I'll move them up so that they drop back to -1.
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"If Wisconsin wins in Minneapolis on Wednesday I'll move the Badgers up and leave the Wolverines where they are. If the Badgers lose in Minneapolis on Wednesday I'll move Michigan down and leave Wisconsin where they are."
This is what I think should happen. I don't think UW will win tomorrow night.
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Simplified version, update on tiers:
All schools are within +/-1 except Michigan (-2) and Ohio State (+2).
Michigan:
After the Wisconsin/Minnesota game tomorrow night we'll either move Wisconsin up or Michigan down. Either way Michigan's loss to Wisconsin will no longer be an "upset" and, provided that they win at Rutgers tonight, they'll be within +/-1.
Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are in a no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4. They are too good for tier-4 as evidenced by the fact that they are currently +2 in that tier. However, they are not good enough for tier-3 as evidenced by the fact that they would be -2 if we moved them up. That pretty much lines up with @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's post of the massey composite which has Ohio State (#34) about half way between the lowest tier-3 team (Iowa at #24) and the next highest* tier-4 team (Indiana at #45).
*I left out #35 Nebraska because I think we are all agreed that they are a MUCH worse team now than they were prior to the injury and that #35 ranking is largely a relic of when they were a better team.
Once @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) posts his weekly Tuesday updated Massey Composite I'll offer a comparison of that to our tiers for discussion.
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I don't know that I agree with moving Michigan down. I get that they're -2, but as a lot of us point out, it's a lot easier to have negative variance from the top than from the bottom. Both losses were to tough teams, both on the road. About the only "bad" thing about either loss was that they were a decently-large margin.
Both games, they shot absolutely dreadfully. When you're a defensive team (currently KenPom #1 in defensive efficiency), a poor shooting night kills you.
But the question is whether you honestly would predict Michigan to lose those games more than 50% of the time if they played them again? I'm not sure I would predict that.
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I'm interested in seeing Michigan at Rutgers tonight. That RAC place has been really tough on visitors.
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Massey composite rankings (62 rankings), with last week in parenthesis (does not count last night's result)...
- Duke (1)
- Virginia (2)
- Gonzaga (5)
- Tennessee (4)
- MICHIGAN STATE (3)
- MICHIGAN (6)
- North Carolina (7)
- Kentucky (9)
- Virginia Tech (12)
- Kansas (8)
- PURDUE (10)
- Nevada (11)
- Houston (13)
- Iowa State (15)
- Villanova (16)
- WISCONSIN (20)
- Louisville (14)
- Marquette (21)
- Texas Tech (18)
- Auburn (-)
- LSU (17)
- MARYLAND (22)
- IOWA (-)
- Buffalo (24)
- Mississippi State (-)
- 34. Ohio State (32)
- 37. Nebraska (30)
- 46. Indiana (42)
- 48. Minnesota (46)
- 65. Northwestern (59)
- 98. Penn State (98)
- 99. Rutgers (103)
- 105. Illinois (113)
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Our tiers with +/- and (Massey composite from @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's post):
- MSU-1 (5), M-2 (6), PU (11)
- UMD-1 (22)
- UW+1 (16), IA (23)
- tOSU+2 (34), IU (46), MN+1 (48)
- UNL (37), NU (65), RU (99), IL (105)
- PSU (98)
Where we disagree with the computers:
- As per @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's post, moving Michigan down does NOT match up with Massey at all.
- Per Massey, it looks like UW should move up. As discussed earlier, they will if they win in Minneapolis.
- Per Massey, UMD is behind UW and close to IA. Eh, we'll see.
- As discussed above, Ohio State appears to be in no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4.
- Nebraska is WAY higher in Massey than we have them. I think we are agreed that their Massey ranking is largely a relic of a time (a few weeks ago and prior) when they were a much better team.
- They have PSU better than RU and IL. Maybe, we'll see.
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Another week should tell us a lot about Wisconsin. They have currently 3 projected losses in the next 3 games. Moved up a tier, that moves to a 2-1 projection with wins away at Minnesota and home vs MSU.
Iowa will depend a lot on whether they win @Indiana on Thursday. There's decent separation between the teams in the composite rankings... Is that enough for a win on the road? After that, we don't see another meaningful test until Feb 19 when Maryland comes to Iowa City.
Maryland is @Nebraska tomorrow, a game that should absolutely be a win. Then they host Purdue next Tuesday, a game that we project MD winning in College Park. I think a loss in either is probably grounds for a move down, and the two games following those (@Mich / @Iowa) are projected losses with our current tiers or if they move down.
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Maryland is @Nebraska tomorrow, a game that should absolutely be a win. Then they host Purdue next Tuesday, a game that we project MD winning in College Park. I think a loss in either is probably grounds for a move down, and the two games following those (@Mich / @Iowa) are projected losses with our current tiers or if they move down.
Nebraska is not ranked, so maybe, and no one shoots threes better in our gym than the other team, so Purdue will have a field day.
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Another week should tell us a lot about Wisconsin.
I feel like I've been saying this for a month. The reality is that the conference is as strong, top-to-bottom, as it's ever been. There are no gimmies. Even a game against lowly PSU is hard, particularly on the road.
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I just turned on the Illinois game to see them wearing retro uniforms, in their contest against Oregon.
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Winston is spent, and the team is awful with him on the bench. They can't even hold on to the ball, let alone run an offense. Teams have figured out to double Winston constantly and the Spartans turn into a turnover machine.
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It's like they held it together with tape when they thought they were getting Langford back, and then once he was ruled out, they just gave up.
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Illinois has over 40 points off offensive rebounds and turnovers. MSU has flat quit on this season.
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I just turned on the Illinois game to see them wearing retro uniforms, in their contest against Oregon.
:57: They do look like Oregon with the neon green.
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Illinois has over 40 points off offensive rebounds and turnovers. MSU has flat quit on this season.
I think that's a little harsh. They need to figure out how to play without their top guy. They'll get it together. Don't forget. Road games are hard. I don't care if it's in Madison, Iowa, Breslin or Joyce. It's hard.
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I think that's a little harsh. They need to figure out how to play without their top guy. They'll get it together. Don't forget. Road games are hard. I don't care if it's in Madison, Iowa, Breslin or Joyce. It's hard.
games. You can't beat anyone when your 3rd best player is done for the season, and your second best has gone back into his pouting hole. He scored zero points against Maryland, had 9 and 3 against Purdue, cost them the Indiana game by going 1-9 from the line, and was so bad tonight that Izzo basically benched him for the second half.
MSU had a huge run to turn a 14 point deficit into a 3 point lead, and promptly let Illinois go on an 11-2 run to seal it. This team looks plenty good in a blowout, but every dogfight they've been in late, they lost. Lost by 5 to Kansas, got to within 4 at Purdue and lost, lost in OT against Louisville and Indiana. Looks to be another close loss tonight. Good at putting their football on your throat if they have a lead, not good in a fight. Relfection of Nick Ward supposedly being one of the co-leaders of your team.
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Also one of the helpful things early in the year was Ahrens seemingly healthy and looking for the first time in his career like a guy worthy of a Big Ten offer. He has regressed horribly. Him single handidly swung that game back to Illinois late. Aaron Henry has hit the freshman wall, at one point he had 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks and 4 turnovers, and none of the other freshman can play now. All of the depth that was stepping up for Langford on the wing has disappeared.
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games. You can't beat anyone when your 3rd best player is done for the season, and your second best has gone back into his pouting hole.
I'd argue that he was MSU's key player. I liken it to UW losing Davison. That would be the end. Yeah, they'd still have Happ, but they'd be missing the glue.
MSU will be fine. Just a bump in the road. That game was right there, but it was on the road. I posted here a month ago that Illinois was gonna come up and beat people in the second half of the season. You could see it. They are not bad anymore.
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It was great to see Michigan blow it open early tonight. The rest of the game was somewhat frustrating, but it was never really that close, and honestly I was more frustrated by the SOTU address by then, but that's a separate issue.
With Illinois' upset win, I actually think Purdue is the BigTen favorite now, since they've already played UM and MSU, avoid Iowa City, and have already won in Madison (with no rematch at home).
I'm looking forward to the rematch against Wisconsin in Crisler on Saturday.
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I'd argue that he was MSU's key player. I liken it to UW losing Davison. That would be the end. Yeah, they'd still have Happ, but they'd be missing the glue.
MSU will be fine. Just a bump in the road. That game was right there, but it was on the road. I posted here a month ago that Illinois was gonna come up and beat people in the second half of the season. You could see it. They are not bad anymore.
I agree with badge .... we have seen this happen to MSU in past years and Izzo snaps them out of it. All road games are brutal.. see my boilers barely escape happy valley with a W
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We now project Purdue (17-3) to win it by one game over the Spartans (16-4) and Wolverines (16-4). Purdue has a somewhat tougher schedule but so far they have won every game they were supposed to win while MSU and M each have two negative upsets.
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We now project Purdue (17-3) to win it by one game over the Spartans (16-4) and Wolverines (16-4). Purdue has a somewhat tougher schedule but so far they have won every game they were supposed to win while MSU and M each have two negative upsets.
Make or break stretch for UW here too. @MN tonight, @M Saturday and MSU in Madison on Tuesday. They could lose all 3 and be out of it, essentially.
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If Wisconsin could win tonight and MSU could keep this swoon going a little longer, that’d be peachy.
It’s weird to look at it and realize IU and OSU have gone into and maybe come out of swoons already. Makes the end of UW’s schedule more daunting.
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If Wisconsin could win tonight and MSU could keep this swoon going a little longer, that’d be peachy.
It’s weird to look at it and realize IU and OSU have gone into and maybe come out of swoons already. Makes the end of UW’s schedule more daunting.
Vis-a-vis those three teams:
Wisconsin:
Their next three games are all projected losses (@MN, @M, vMSU) but all three look potentially winnable. I agree with @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) , these three really determine their season:
- Win all three, they are a B1G Championship contender.
- 2-1 they are a marginal B1G Championship contender with a strong chance to at least get the double-bye.
- 1-2 they have a marginal chance at a double-bye.
- 0-3, trouble.
Indiana:
The Hoosiers lost seven straight and looked dead in the water then went into East Lansing and pulled off the upset. Did they turn a corner or is MSU just a mess right now or was that just a one-off upset? We'll find out. Their next three games (vIA, vtOSU, @MN) all feel like they could go either way. They are currently 4-7 and there is obviously a HUMONGOUS difference between coming out of those three at 7-7 as opposed to coming out of those three at 4-10.
Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are 4-6 and should win two of their next three (vPSU, vIL) but the IU game still looms large. The thing for the Buckeyes is that most of their remaining games are either:
- Home games against the worst teams in the league that Ohio State should obviously win (vPSU, vIL, vNU), or
- Road games against the best teams in the league that Ohio State should obviously lose (@MSU, @UMD, @PU)
That puts particular emphasis on the few remaining games that could plausibly go either way (@IU, vIA, @NU, vUW)
If the Buckeyes win the three they should obviously win and lose the three they should obviously lose they gets them to 7-9. The rest are the difference between 7-13 and 11-9.
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Vis-a-vis those three teams:
Wisconsin:
Their next three games are all projected losses (@MN, @M, vMSU) but all three look potentially winnable. I agree with @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) , these three really determine their season:
- Win all three, they are a B1G Championship contender.
- 2-1 they are a marginal B1G Championship contender with a strong chance to at least get the double-bye.
- 1-2 they have a marginal chance at a double-bye.
- 0-3, trouble.
Indiana:
The Hoosiers lost seven straight and looked dead in the water then went into East Lansing and pulled off the upset. Did they turn a corner or is MSU just a mess right now or was that just a one-off upset? We'll find out. Their next three games (vIA, vtOSU, @MN) all feel like they could go either way. They are currently 4-7 and there is obviously a HUMONGOUS difference between coming out of those three at 7-7 as opposed to coming out of those three at 4-10.
Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are 4-6 and should win two of their next three (vPSU, vIL) but the IU game still looms large. The thing for the Buckeyes is that most of their remaining games are either:
- Home games against the worst teams in the league that Ohio State should obviously win (vPSU, vIL, vNU), or
- Road games against the best teams in the league that Ohio State should obviously lose (@MSU, @UMD, @PU)
That puts particular emphasis on the few remaining games that could plausibly go either way (@IU, vIA, @NU, vUW)
If the Buckeyes win the three they should obviously win and lose the three they should obviously lose they gets them to 7-9. The rest are the difference between 7-13 and 11-9.
I still don’t think at UM is one UW can win.
Also think Purdue is a definite favorite. Hardest games down the stretch are at MD, at IU and I guess at Neb, OSU at home or at Minn.
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February KenPom
1. MSU (4)
2. Michigan (6)
3. Purdue (10)
4. Wisonsin (11)
5. Maryland (20)
6. Iowa (23)
7. Nebraska (27)
8. OSU (32)
9. Indiana (44)
10. Minny (51)
11. PSU (64)
12. NW (66)
13. Illinois (68)
14. Rutgers (97)
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We were having that NET conversation the other day, and this excerpt (https://mgoblog.com/content/basketbullets-2018-19-rutgers)seemed like a solid contribution:
NET stuff. Matt Norlander interviews one of the committee members about the NET rankings, gets a cringe-inducing reference to "machine learning"…
CBS Sports: Coaches have spoken about their awareness of scoring margin with the NET. Buzz Williams most recently on Monday night (https://twitter.com/MattNorlander/status/1092641526554001409). Are they misguided in thinking that winning or losing a game by seven or eight points vs. 11 or 12 points makes any real difference in how their team lands in the NET and can affect seeding or selection?
Muir: Since there's a lot of machine learning and nuances to the metrics I should leave up to the experts, what I would say is — based on your question — I'd be heard-pressed to think whether you win by 11 or you win by eight, whether that makes a big difference in our process. What we're going to now acknowledge is the team who's won the game, the team that lost the game, where that game was played and what happened in that game. That's what's most important.
There's thousands of possessions during the course of a season, and so to just boil down to one possession as to where you're going to be on the seed line or whether you're going to be selected or not, I think you're looking at something miniscule. It's much broader than that. If a really good team wins at another place and played well and won by 20, well we take note of that. Does it make a difference if it's 20 or 18? Probably not.
…but does chisel out a couple of answers to questions coaches are asking. Richard Pitino was complaining just yesterday about trying to reach a ten-point margin and how he didn't like doing that when in the past he'd put in young players or walk-ons. But there's no magic 10-point bonus. There is a MOV segment of NET that's capped at ten points, and there is an efficiency component that uses margins by default.
Those aren't worth gaming in the last minute. The tiny wobbles that happen in the last couple minutes of an already-decided game are not going to move the needle, especially because the committee is still using teamsheets as their main method of selecting and seeding the field. The margin stuff isn't worth getting exercised over.
Meanwhile, the list of outliers seems like a good one to me:
Helped by the NET
- NC State (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/NCST/nc-state-wolfpack/): 93 spots higher (121 in RPI, 35 in NET)
- Nebraska (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/NEB/nebraska-cornhuskers/): 71 spots higher (104 in RPI, 33 in NET)
- Liberty: 73 spots higher (127 in RPI, 54 in NET)
- Florida (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/FLA/florida-gators/): 38 spots higher (80 in RPI, 42 in NET)
- Saint Mary's (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/MARYCA/saint-marys-gaels/): 25 spots higher (71 in RPI, 46 in NET)
- Lipscomb: 24 spots higher (56 in RPI, 32 in NET)
- Virginia Tech (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/VATECH/virginia-tech-hokies/): 19 (29 in RPI, 10 in NET)
- Baylor (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/BAYLOR/baylor-bears/): 18 (49 in RPI, 31 in NET)
[color][size][font]
Frankly, if the NET wasn't around, NC State (16-7) and Nebraska (13-9) would not be thought of as reasonable NCAA Tournament (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament) teams. …
Hurt by the NET
[/font][/size][/color]- VCU (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/VCU/vcu-rams/): 21 spots lower (28 in RPI, 49 in NET)
- Kansas State (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/KSTATE/kansas-state-wildcats/): 17 spots lower (13 in RPI, 30 in NET)
- Kansas (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/KANSAS/kansas-jayhawks/): 16 spots lower (1 in RPI, 17 in NET)
- TCU (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/TCU/tcu-horned-frogs/): 14 spots lower (23 in RPI, 37 in NET)
- Belmont: 15 spots lower (48 in RPI, 63 in NET)
- Oklahoma (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/OKLA/oklahoma-sooners/): 13 spots (25 in RPI, 38 in NET)
[color][size][font]
The Big 12 gets dinged plenty in this NET-conscious environment, interestingly enough.[/font][/size][/color]
Ironically, after people complained that the NET rankings didn't track Kenpom closely enough all of these outliers could have been ripped from its pages: Kenpom #27 Nebraska, #41 NC State, #61 Liberty, #36 Florida, #38 St Mary's, #34 Lipscomb, #9 VT, and #26 Baylor are all within spitting distance of their NET rankings. Ditto the relative losers.
This isn't a huge surprise. When Bart Torvik put together a NET facsimile the component of that facsimile that correlated the best with the actual ranking (https://twitter.com/totally_t_bomb/status/1069629133104340993) was a version of his efficiency margin minus preseason inputs. I might argue that NET is actually too willing to ignore You Play To Win The Game, but if its main use is as a way to judge the quality of wins and losses on teamsheets that's… exactly what you want.
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I @#&%ing hate buzz words.
Not that buzz words don't refer to anything. "Machine learning" is a thing. It's a term that refers to an actual concept that exists in the real world.
Problem is that only about 5% of the people (if even that many) who use the term "machine learning" can explain what it is and what the term means. The other 95+% only use the term to sound smart.
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Tangential, but I'm all aboard. The same could be said about other words. Distinctions like who/whom and farther/further have good linguistic purposes and are easy to misuse, but I think it's better (more forgivable) to incorrectly use the common versions (who or farther) as an honest mistake than to incorrectly use the "proper-seeming" versions in order to make one's language seem proper.
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Season's done. Besides this team being unable to make layups and dunks, they shoot way too many 3's, and they're not a 3 point shooting team, Mark yelled at the refs a while ago and told them that loss was on them.
Well, now they're getting their revenge.
Maryland players getting hacked and no calls, best players getting ghost fouls quickly to take them out of games.
More convinced now that the refs are spiteful and steer games.
Crooked lot.
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At the moment Maryland is up 8 on the road, late in the 1st half... Other than poor shooting [by both teams], the box scores don't look that far out of whack.
Maybe it's not time to give up on the season yet...
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the Huskers are having the trouble on the offensive end
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Season's done. Besides this team being unable to make layups and dunks, they shoot way too many 3's, and they're not a 3 point shooting team, Mark yelled at the refs a while ago and told them that loss was on them.
Well, now they're getting their revenge.
Maryland players getting hacked and no calls, best players getting ghost fouls quickly to take them out of games.
More convinced now that the refs are spiteful and steer games.
Crooked lot.
You have a good team man.
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-UAiAfyfprPM%2FU5HWF9AzQwI%2FAAAAAAAAHYQ%2FL8nnn2TZNok%2Fs1600%2Fledge.jpg&hash=1b36edb88784b60bf6ac4d858e851ba7)
Come in off that ledge bro.
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Husker fans can jump or push the coach off the ledge
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2 BS charges, an elbow on the neck and back of Smith forcing him down on a FT, Roby pile drives Fernando under the basket knocking his teeth out, no call....if Fernando did that to Happ, he'd be arrested on the spot.
Smith swats at the ball but doesn't hit the ball, goes into the back court, no call, "saved" to Roby, whose foot was out of bounds, no call.....
Geez. These officials are horrible.
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And then Fernando does something that should get him ejected, no call.
These officials, man.
They should have looked at that
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the Fernando "step" I saw both ways
the Husker that flopped tried to tangle legs when Fernando went up for the shot - dangerous
I'm fine with the no call
obviously, Coach Miles was NOT
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the Fernando "step" I saw both ways
the Husker that flopped tried to tangle legs when Fernando went up for the shot - dangerous
I'm fine with the no call
obviously, Coach Miles was NOT
That was terrible.
If that was another team stepping on our guys, I'd be swinging at air going ballistic.
That's how I look at calls. "If that was us/them, would I be upset".
Fernando should be ejected for that.
You could see a flop there, but the elbow was enough evidence to go the other way.
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if Fernando would have put some weight on that foot he would have been called, he obviously pulled up
no blood, no foul
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Then, what worries me, is always the last irate "no-call" a coach goes off about, and the calls seem to go the other way, making the game closer.
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And that was a clean block on Ayala....SMH
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I guess I'll stop. Looks like they "made up for" the first half.
Refs were terrible on both sides tonight.
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I'm glad they can still hug each other out there.
Into the blender for Maryland. What a brutal stretch upcoming.
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The level of anger after a 15 point win :smiley_confused1:
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UW is playing better, and leads by only 1.
I dislike this.
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The level of anger after a 15 point win :smiley_confused1:
Is this a "stir the pot" post?
Did I direct some ill will towards you?
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Is this a "stir the pot" post?
Did I direct some ill will towards you?
Nothing personal... Just thought your response was incongruous with the happenings on the court.
I'd offer you a chill pill, but I'm a Boilermaker fan, so I ran out of those around December lol.
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Season's done. Besides this team being unable to make layups and dunks, they shoot way too many 3's, and they're not a 3 point shooting team, Mark yelled at the refs a while ago and told them that loss was on them.
Well, now they're getting their revenge.
Maryland players getting hacked and no calls, best players getting ghost fouls quickly to take them out of games.
More convinced now that the refs are spiteful and steer games.
Crooked lot.
This taps into something I find fascinating, which is how crazy being in the middle of a game makes us.
Looking at that first paragraph, Maryland can't finish inside, but also shouldn't shoot 3s because it can't, but shoots too many. Right now the Terps are 64th in 3-point shooting, but are 244th in how often they take them, so the probably should shoot more. They're bad at 2s, though that's most on Ayala and Wiggins, a little on Cowan.
Anyway, they'll likely win 20-plus games, go to the dance. Should be a good time.
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UW is 5-20 from inside the arc. All but one are inside the key and below the top of the charge circle.
If UW rolls in a few, it could be in good shape. If Minnesota removes its head from its backside, the hosts will take this one.
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Brad Davison is still a punk. Big Jim needs to park him for a game.
https://twitter.com/Habby831/status/1093333052217090049?s=19 (https://twitter.com/Habby831/status/1093333052217090049?s=19)
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That game was awful. Wisconsin came in with a profile of great D, kinda so-so offense. This didn't help.
But UW won. And that means 17 wins. And that's big. Ill and PSU at home mean 19 and the dance is all but guaranteed. If they can handle Iowa at home and NW on the road, 21 is there. Then there's the trio of at OSU, at IU and MSU at home, which all see toss-up-y.
I expect a loss on Saturday. After that, UW will be favored, often slightly, the rest of the way. Should be weird.
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That game was awful. Wisconsin came in with a profile of great D, kinda so-so offense. This didn't help.
But UW won. And that means 17 wins. And that's big. Ill and PSU at home mean 19 and the dance is all but guaranteed. If they can handle Iowa at home and NW on the road, 21 is there. Then there's the trio of at OSU, at IU and MSU at home, which all see toss-up-y.
I expect a loss on Saturday. After that, UW will be favored, often slightly, the rest of the way. Should be weird.
I didn't think they would win last night, so I'm pleased.
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the Fernando "step" I saw both ways
the Husker that flopped tried to tangle legs when Fernando went up for the shot - dangerous
I'm fine with the no call
obviously, Coach Miles was NOT
I wouldn't have been surprised or upset had Bruno been ejected, even though I'm not sure whether or not he actually finished off the stomp the Nebraska player. It was a bad look that shouldn't be ignored.
I also wouldn't have been upset if the Nebraska player had been ejected for wrapping his legs around Bruno's while laying on his back to trip Bruno up as he went airborne. That was far more dangerous than anything Bruno did before or after. That's what ticked Bruno off, I think.
As for the initial contact -- Bruno obviously committed a foul. I think referees are getting so they're not going to call it when a player sells it so poorly by launching himself backwards as if he's been hit my a missile. It makes them look gullible and they don't like it. Just my guess.
I kind of like Tim Miles, and I think he's taken Nebraska a long way. To me it's a shame that he's probably history after this season. He seems like a good guy...
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I didn't think they would win last night, so I'm pleased.
I came in a little worried, but still looking at UW as a solid favorite. When Minn plays bad it looks BAD, but if UW just his a few layups early (hi MCW), it woulda been fine.
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I came in a little worried, but still looking at UW as a solid favorite. When Minn plays bad it looks BAD, but if UW just his a few layups early (hi MCW), it woulda been fine.
Did you HAPPen to keep track of how many bunny shots UW missed in H1? It felt like it HAPPened on every damn possession.
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Did you HAPPen to keep track of how many bunny shots UW missed in H1? It felt like it HAPPened on every damn possession.
Not exactly. I know they were 5-19 in an area within the lane and below the top of the charge circle. Which is impressive. Ethan was 2-7. Went 4-5 after halftime.
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I wouldn't have been surprised or upset had Bruno been ejected, even though I'm not sure whether or not he actually finished off the stomp the Nebraska player. It was a bad look that shouldn't be ignored.
I also wouldn't have been upset if the Nebraska player had been ejected for wrapping his legs around Bruno's while laying on his back to trip Bruno up as he went airborne. That was far more dangerous than anything Bruno did before or after. That's what ticked Bruno off, I think.
As for the initial contact -- Bruno obviously committed a foul. I think referees are getting so they're not going to call it when a player sells it so poorly by launching himself backwards as if he's been hit my a missile. It makes them look gullible and they don't like it. Just my guess.
I kind of like Tim Miles, and I think he's taken Nebraska a long way. To me it's a shame that he's probably history after this season. He seems like a good guy...
Eh, both guys were kind of borderline "dirty" in the sense that neither was really a necessary basketball move, but I'm not sure it was an intent to injure type deal. I'm surprised they didn't give both guys a technical just to kind of keep things in check. But I'm glad they didn't reward the Nebraska kid for the flop.
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Brad Davison is still a punk. Big Jim needs to park him for a game.
https://twitter.com/Habby831/status/1093333052217090049?s=19 (https://twitter.com/Habby831/status/1093333052217090049?s=19)
I just looked at it in real time and missed it. Totally missed it during the game too, as did the official standing a few feet from the play. I'd like to see an angle from the side, if possible. Could be a combination of a lot of things, but let's just say that Brad Davison is not going to get any breaks, or benefit of the doubt, ever again.
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I wouldn't have been surprised or upset had Bruno been ejected, even though I'm not sure whether or not he actually finished off the stomp the Nebraska player. It was a bad look that shouldn't be ignored.
I also wouldn't have been upset if the Nebraska player had been ejected for wrapping his legs around Bruno's while laying on his back to trip Bruno up as he went airborne. That was far more dangerous than anything Bruno did before or after. That's what ticked Bruno off, I think.
As for the initial contact -- Bruno obviously committed a foul. I think referees are getting so they're not going to call it when a player sells it so poorly by launching himself backwards as if he's been hit my a missile. It makes them look gullible and they don't like it. Just my guess.
I kind of like Tim Miles, and I think he's taken Nebraska a long way. To me it's a shame that he's probably history after this season. He seems like a good guy...
I see the initial contact and the crap after it as subjective and could go either way.
I'm fine with no call on the initial contact, although when a player hits the floor something probably should have been called on the bump or the flop. That way there's a whistle and the play stops. This eliminates the crap that followed.
I really like Coach Miles and wish he could have been more successful. Being the nicest coach in the conference usually gets you fired.
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Based on Wisconsin's "upset" win in Minneapolis I have moved the Badgers up into tier-2 so that their win last night and their earlier home win over Michigan are no longer "upsets". The updated tiers (with +/-) are:
- Purdue+1, Michigan-1, Michigan State-2
- Maryland-1, Wisconsin-1
- Iowa
- Ohio State+2, Minnesota+1, Indiana
- Illinois+1, Northwestern, Rutgers, Nebraska
- Penn State
Note that all teams are within +/-1 except MSU-2 and tOSU+2.
Michigan State:
Their two negative upsets are a road loss to Illinois and a home loss to Indiana. Both would be upsets even if we dropped the Spartans to tier-2. Additionally, the Spartans won at Iowa which would be an upset if we dropped them. I think they need to stay in tier-1. Part of it is that they had an initial projection of 17-3 so they simply have a lot of opportunities for negative variance.
Ohio State:
As discussed previously, the Buckeyes are basically in a no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4. Their two "upset" wins are road wins over Nebraska and Illinois (the Ill game was actually at the United Center so not a true road game). If we move them up those would no longer be upset wins but they would have two "upset" losses (vUMD, @RU). So the Buckeyes are either -2 in tier-3 or +2 in tier-4. I'll leave them in tier-4 for now.
Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue
- 16-4/27-4 Michigan (wins tiebreaker over UW based on record against Purdue)
- 16-4/24-7 Wisconsin
- 15-5/24-7 Michigan State
- 14-6/23-8 Maryland
- 12-8/23-8 Iowa
- 8-12/18-13 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over ILL based on H2H, won in the United Center)
- 8-12/12-19 Illinois
- 7-13/17-14 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker over IU based on H2H, no game in Bloomington)
- 7-13/16-15 Indiana
- 6-14/15-16 Northwestern (wins tiebreaker over RU based on H2H, won in Picastaway)
- 6-14/13-17 Rutgers
- 5-15/15-16 Nebraska
- 3-17/10-21 Penn State
Based on those projections the BTT match-ups in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Rutgers vs #13 Nebraska, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):
- #5 Maryland vs NU/PSU, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Iowa vs RU/UNL, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Ohio State vs #10 Indiana, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Illinois vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Purdue vs IL/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Michigan vs tOSU/IU, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Wisconsin vs IA/RU/UNL, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Michigan State vs UMD/NU/PSU, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- PU/IL/MN vs MSU/UMD/NU/PSU, 1pm on CBS
- M/tOSU/IU vs UW/IA/RU/UNL, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- PU/IL/MN/MSU/UMD/NU/PSU vs M/tOSU/IU/UW/IA/RU/UNL, 3:30pm on CBS
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Nebraska Basketball Program:
(https://media1.tenor.com/images/0ec6307b0672b8a57158b8b42dc09b81/tenor.gif?itemid=11631439)
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Is Miles gonna make it?
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His friends in the media are even assuming he's gone...
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https://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/sipple/sipple-three-quick-thoughts-on-nebraska-s---loss/article_a4ad2ff0-1c16-5aa2-81cf-dbc508cbd8cc.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share#1
recent example..
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I think the energy behind firing Miles is due to the high early season expectations, # of Seniors on this team and how close they were last year to making the tourney. The expectations were not to win the BIG... or make a sweet 16. They were winning Nebraska's first tournament game in the schools history. This was going to be the year. So a 5th or 6th place finish is as good as 3rd in the big... it's a tough league. But losing 6 in a row, having no offense and appearing like the team has given up on the season (not even playing good Defense anymore) has husker fans ready to make a change. Unlike football, UNL basketball fans just want a competitive team that plays hard and will occasionally make the dance when they have the right combo of talent and experience.
I also think people look at next years team and wonder if Miles can't do it with these guys, next year is going to be a disaster.... it's a rebuild year for any coach.
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Ed Zachery
I don't like the idea of firing Miles, but I like that much better than keeping him and suffering through next season.
He would need 3 good/great transfers and a couple freshman recruits to have a decent team next season. There's nothing on the bench this season.
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Interesting couple of games tonight:
PSU@tOSU, 7pm:
Penn State started out 0-9 in the league and looked just dreadful but in their last two games they took Purdue to OT and won in Evanston. Have they turned a corner? For their part, the Buckeyes have won two of their last three but they couldn't shoot in Ann Arbor, the UNL win looks less impressive almost each day, and the other win was at home over Rutgers. I see the Buckeyes as a borderline tournament team and this is a game they probably can't afford to lose.
Iowa@Indiana, 9pm:
Indiana lost seven straight and looked to be dead in the water then walked into the Breslin Center and upset the league-leading Spartans. I'm not sure that anybody saw that coming. The problem for the Hoosiers is that one big win isn't going to erase the aforementioned seven-game losing streak. I see them as a borderline tournament team much like the Buckeyes and they probably can't afford a home loss in a winnable game like this one. Iowa comes in at 6-5 including a nice home win over Michigan in their last outing but they have lost two of their last three and obviously it would be preferable for them to not make that into three of four.
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I didn't even see the legs wrapped around Fernando until today.
Still think they should have reviewed it. Perhaps would have cleared the air about a few things so fans and outsiders wouldn't have jumped to conclusions, like even I did.
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Kyle Young back for the Buckeyes
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What a disastrous end to the first half for the Buckeyes!
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Wowzers.
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it was close
on to Hawks/Hoosiers!
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dy2YJLWU8AEdg4g.jpg)
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Aside from the fact that they are the worst, why did Adidas change Indiana's uniforms to keep them basically the same, but just look substantially cheaper?
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After a decade living here, I still don't have any feeling one way or another towards IU or PU (other than loads of observations about the fans), but I do want to assault adults who waltz around wearing IU candy striped pants. That's so much more wrong than the Packers zubaz pants that used to torment me in the 90s in WI.
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how about red & white striped bib overalls?
(https://cdn3.volusion.com/wcjrz.nkudk/v/vspfiles/photos/GBA-01-7.png?1511177823)
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Aside from the fact that they are the worst, why did Adidas change Indiana's uniforms to keep them basically the same, but just look substantially cheaper?
Why does Nike change everyone's uniforms, and never change their own logo? It's called branding. Yet, Nike SKOOLS allow them to manipulate their own brands.
??????????????
(https://www.bing.com/th?id=OIP.Ekx2VEGqTVlUSJbrlnm2EwHaFS&w=281&h=193&c=7&o=5&dpr=2.5&pid=1.7)
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bib overalls maybe, but not when you're out of school, similar to my jersey policy. If you are older than the player, don't wear it. Though my own personal jersey policy is not to own one, until that person is dead (see O.J., R Rice, traded players, other scandals, etc.)
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Why does Nike change everyone's uniforms, and never change their own logo? It's called branding. Yet, Nike SKOOLS allow them to manipulate their own brands.
??????????????
(https://www.bing.com/th?id=OIP.Ekx2VEGqTVlUSJbrlnm2EwHaFS&w=281&h=193&c=7&o=5&dpr=2.5&pid=1.7)
Short term gains to sell some merch, but trading away long term brand awareness. I'm just glad we haven't put a UNC player on our jersey yet, although I assume it's coming at some point
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bib overalls maybe, but not when you're out of school, similar to my jersey policy. If you are older than the player, don't wear it. Though my own personal jersey policy is not to own one, until that person is dead (see O.J., R Rice, traded players, other scandals, etc.)
Hey, I'm only like 6 months older than Drew Brees. Is that within the acceptable window?
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how about red & white striped bib overalls?
(https://cdn3.volusion.com/wcjrz.nkudk/v/vspfiles/photos/GBA-01-7.png?1511177823)
It's like when you try to make a joke about a sensitive or controversial subject... You can do it, but the degree of difficulty is high, and if it's not funny enough you're screwed.
To get away with those bib overalls you need to be smokin' hot. Hot enough where it doesn't look ridiculous anymore.
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I think last night's home loss to Iowa may have been the dagger for Indiana's tournament chances. Lunardi currently has eight B1G teams in. Six of them are pretty secure:
- 2-seed MSU
- 2-seed Michigan
- 3-seed Purdue
- 5-seed Wisconsin
- 6-seed Maryland
- 6-seed Iowa
Then there is a big gap before the last two, both of which are listed in Lunardi's "last four byes":
- 9-seed Ohio State
- 10-seed Minnesota
Indiana is included in Lunardi's "first four out" and that is it.
In our tier-based projections we have a similar gap between the top six and everybody else. The projected top-6 are each projected to finish 13-7 or better in conference and 23-8 or better overall. Then there is a five-game gap down to 8-12/18-13 Ohio State.
Ohio State at Indiana on Sunday could be a key game in determining NCAA status for both teams:
- We project the Hoosiers to win but only finish 6-14/15-16. In theory they could lose and still make it but in practice that would require winning several MUCH tougher games down the stretch.
- We project the Buckeyes to lose and finish 8-12/18-13. I think that would be on the bubble but 9-11/19-12 would be a lot better.
It is early to refer to any game as a "must win" but the IU/tOSU game on Sunday is close to a "must win" for the Hoosiers and not much less important for the Buckeyes.
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bib overalls maybe, but not when you're out of school, similar to my jersey policy. If you are older than the player, don't wear it. Though my own personal jersey policy is not to own one, until that person is dead (see O.J., R Rice, traded players, other scandals, etc.)
bibs are definitely old man gear, pretty much all my grandfathers wore back in the 60s and early 70s
of course, they wore the traditional blue
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It's like when you try to make a joke about a sensitive or controversial subject... You can do it, but the degree of difficulty is high, and if it's not funny enough you're screwed.
To get away with those bib overalls you need to be smokin' hot. Hot enough where it doesn't look ridiculous anymore.
seems only a bit odd to me, that if you're smokin hot, it doesn't matter what you wear
Loooooking Goooooooood!
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In about a week we are going to start grouping teams as "locks", "need to win BTT", and "bubble".
As a reminder heading into that, I use those terms literally, ie:
"Lock": A lock, to me, is a team that could lose every remaining regular season game, get the worst possible BTT match-up and lose that, and would still make the tournament.
"Need to win BTT": A team that needs to win the BTT, to me, is a team that could win every remaining regular season game, get the best possible match-ups in the BTT and win all of their BTT games except the CG and still would not make the tournament.
"Bubble": Bubble teams, to me, are all the other teams.
Thus, I don't think any team in the B1G is a lock and I don't think any of them are in need to win BTT territory yet.
Michigan (10-2/21-2) has the best record but I don't consider them a lock because if they lost out they would head to the BTT at 10-10/21-10 and if they then lost their BTT opener they would finish 10-11/21-11 along with being the losers of nine straight and 10 of their last 11. They *MIGHT* make the tournament anyway but it wouldn't be a given because that horrible finish just might keep them out.
Conversely, Penn State (1-11/8-15) has the worst record but I don't consider them to need to win the BTT because if they won out until the BTTCG they would finish 12-12/19-16 and that fantastic finish just might get them in.
At this point, IMHO, M(10-2/21-2), PU (9-2/16-6), MSU (9-3/18-5), UW (9-3/17-6), and UMD (9-4/18-6) are all on the cusp of becoming locks. Similarly, PSU (1-11/8-15) and UNL (3-9/13-10) are on the cusp of "need to win BTT" status.
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What's the highest ever win total for a Big Ten team turned away from the NCAA tournament? 20? 21, 22? More?
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What's the highest ever win total for a Big Ten team turned away from the NCAA tournament? 20? 21, 22? More?
Nebraska had 22 last year. I have to imagine that's it
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"Lock": A lock, to me, is a team that could lose every remaining regular season game, get the worst possible BTT match-up and lose that, and would still make the tournament.
I have always agreed with this. Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish were discussing this, and Norlander is on our side. Parrish thought that's ridiculous, and that it's a team there is no way you would bet against making it with any odds, that it would take something so unpredictable for them to miss it. To that, I disagree. Before the season even started you could say that about Duke, or a couple other teams. That's what "Should Be In" is for. Basically if things go even close to what they should do (barring a complete and utter collapse) they are in, even if they have some dropoff. Lock means lock, you are in literally no matter what you do from here.
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I also agree about the most stringent/literal definition of "lock." It's clumsy to blur the lines on a category with clear borders, especially when there's an adjacent category ("should be in") to collect the cases falling just outside.
Having said that, based on their record against the top two quadrants, Michigan is probably 0 or 1 wins from lock status. But the fact that I can't type that as a promise and have to include "or" means they can't be a literal lock yet.
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I think from the standpoint of sports media, they'll play fast and loose with the definition of "lock" because they want to be as close to first in making projections as possible. If they wait another couple of games [a week+], when teams are true "locks" regardless of the rest of season outcome, they might be stale compared to the 12 other media outlets who have already made their predictions.
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I also agree about the most stringent/literal definition of "lock." It's clumsy to blur the lines on a category with clear borders, especially when there's an adjacent category ("should be in") to collect the cases falling just outside.
Having said that, based on their record against the top two quadrants, Michigan is probably 0 or 1 wins from lock status. But the fact that I can't type that as a promise and have to include "or" means they can't be a literal lock yet.
Agreed. A big reason that I'm not quite willing to call them a lock yet is that if they lost out they would finish sub .500 in B1G games (10-10 regular season, 0-1 BTT = 10-11). Winning even just one more game rectifies that. With one more win their worst case scenario would improve to 11-10/22-10 and if that isn't a lock it is awfully close. The ONLY thing holding them back at that point would be the horrible finish but I think their overall record would pull them through. We project that the Wolverines will win their next two games (vUW, @PSU) and if they do, they will absolutely be a lock this time next week at 12-2/23-2.
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Tied at halftime in Ann Arbor. I thought it would be either nip and tuck thoughout with one team making the plays at the end or Mich would smother.
We’re halfway to the former.
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Tied at halftime in Ann Arbor. I thought it would be either nip and tuck thoughout with one team making the plays at the end or Mich would smother.
We’re halfway to the former.
I'm only keeping up with the score online. I can't watch it - visiting friends and all that. How do they look? Hopefully the second half team we know and love shows up.
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I'm only keeping up with the score online. I can't watch it - visiting friends and all that. How do they look? Hopefully the second half team we know and love shows up.
I’m in transit and watching what I can. Happ is on one. Shooting not really there. Mich defending well, took advantage of some breakdowns, but UW got away with a few. The game is tight enough UW having six turnovers to four for Mich feels big.
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Moments before takeoff, Happ gets foul No. 3, the game’s 11th total with more than 17 min left.
Crap.
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Man, Trice with some awful basketball there
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These two games were total mirrors of each other.
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As usual, Wisconsin games are the most frustrating to watch. The bad non/calls early were infuriating, but it evened out over time. If you want to complain about the Davison hook-and-hold and block calls, I'd argue he doesn't deserve any benefit of the doubt. Happ got away with some early, too.
Major props to Teske today. He struggled early defensively, but then he did well against both bigs in the second half and rebounded well throughout. Offensively, he was great between the 3 (though he missed two other wide open looks), layups / dunks / put-backs. The steal near the end was critical (that said, why didn't Wisconsin foul when Michigan would've been in the 1-and-1 in the final minute????? They basically just conceded the game, especially since that possession ended with another tough made shot by Matthews).
I hate Matthews' shot selection, but credit to him for making those tough mid-range shots today. His second half was the biggest thing that saved the offense. Of course, he played good defense, as usual.
Brazdeikis struggled had another bad game, and Poole had a bad second half just like in Madison. Simpson had some bad plays, as well. The 3-point shooting was terrible today despite having a good number of open shots. Hopefully they focus on that in practice next week.
Can't overlook Penn State now, though. Despite their record, they are playing decent of late.
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MSU handled Minnesota easily, but lost Goins to an elbow injury early in the second, and didn't return. Hoping it's precautionary in a 24 point win, because if he's out for any time, this season will really start heading down the drain.
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Tied at halftime in Ann Arbor. I thought it would be either nip and tuck thoughout with one team making the plays at the end or Mich would smother.
We’re halfway to the former.
Michigan made the plays at the end. Some real tough shots.
UW had stretches where it seemed like it could make up ground with one or two extra stops, but UM answered again and again. Well-coached team:
The was the most guilt free loss on the schedule, and it remains so.
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Michigan and Wisconsin are very similar teams, maybe not in personnel nitty gritty but in general structure. Highest end defense and an offense that plays off an unusual big man.
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It's like when you try to make a joke about a sensitive or controversial subject... You can do it, but the degree of difficulty is high, and if it's not funny enough you're screwed.
To get away with those bib overalls you need to be smokin' hot. Hot enough where it doesn't look ridiculous anymore.
Agree to an extent. Hot enough to make it work.... OR.. so over the top it is funny. I've seen grown men pull of red leisure suites because it became an act. If you're all in, it can be just as good. MOST people just wear it and it seems odd.
I also agree with the no jersey policy once out of school. Glad to see my kids wear names of their favorite athletes, but as a grown man, I'm not worshiping someone half my age. Now, get of my lawn.
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OSU just gives the ball away so often. I truly don't understand it. It's not even caused by good defense.
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I also agree with the no jersey policy once out of school. Glad to see my kids wear names of their favorite athletes, but as a grown man, I'm not worshiping someone half my age. Now, get of my lawn.
I will say that I don't ever wear athletic jerseys unless one of two conditions are met:
1) I am at a viewing / sports bar / etc SPECIFICALLY to watch the game of the team I'm wearing a jersey for.
2) I'm at the actual even of the team I'm wearing a jersey for.
There's a Purdue alumni group down in San Diego, and myself and some Boiler alum went to a watch party. I wore a jersey. When I went to the Foster Farms Bowl, I wore a jersey.
But I don't wear jerseys on a random Tuesday.
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Bucks eak out a road win to get back to .500 in the conference
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzEdxF4XcAAhZ0S.jpg)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzEdxF4XcAAhZ0S.jpg)
Huge win for the Bucks, IMHO.
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NW just blew a big ole lead to Iowa
Jordan Bohannon is also cold. But in the good way.
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Amazing escape for Iowa...
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Update on tiers:
The only unexpected result this weekend was Ohio State's win in Bloomington. The Buckeyes now have to move up to tier-3. Explanation:
For more than a week I have been saying that Ohio State was in a no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4. They had two losses that would be negative upsets for a tier-3 team (vUMD, @RU) and two wins that would be positive upsets for a tier-4 team (@IL - actually neutral, @UNL). Thus they were either +2 in tier-4 or -2 in tier-3 so we left them in tier-4. Now that they have another positive upset (the win @IU), they are either +3 in tier-4 or -1 in tier-3. Consequently, they are moving up to tier-3.
Ohio State's move up to tier-3 causes numerous changes:
- Two Ohio State wins that used to be upsets are now expected results (@IL, @UNL)
- Two Ohio State losses that were not upsets now are (vUMD, @RU)
- Two future games that were projected tOSU losses are now projected tOSU wins (vUW, @NU)
Here is where moving Ohio State up puts every team (with +/-):
- Purdue+1, Michigan-1, Michigan State-2
- Maryland, Wisconsin-1
- Iowa+1, Ohio State-1
- Minnestoa+1, Indiana-2
- Illinois+2, Rutgers+1, Nebraska+1, Northwestern
- Penn State
As you can see, all teams are within +/-1 except:
Michigan State:
The Spartans are -2 but their two upset losses (vIU, @IL) would be upsets even if we dropped them. I think this is just a product of being in a high tier where there are LOTS of opportunities for negative variance and having a mid-season lull. We'll keep an eye on it, but for now leave them in tier-1.
Illinois:
The Illini are +2 but their two upset wins (@UMD - actually neutral, vMSU) would be upsets even if we elevated them. I think this is just a product of being in a low tier where there are LOTS of opportunities for positive variance and having the ability to play REALLY well but being completely inconsistent about it. We'll keep an eye on it, bur for now leave them in tier-5
Indiana:
The Hoosiers are the complicated one. For one thing, they have been involved in four upsets (more than any other team). They have a positive upset (@MSU) and three negative upset home losses (UNL, IA, tOSU). The announcers discussed this during the tOSU/IU game yesterday. Indiana has some really nice wins but they are still 4-9 in conference because they also have some really bad losses. One thing that catches my eye is that the Hoosiers' last two games were home losses in games they were expected to win (IA, tOSU).
The difference between tier-4 (where they are now) and tier-5 (where we could move them down) is the expected result in home games against tier-3 teams and road games against tier-6 teams. Those are:
Being that they are 1-2 in those games, the Hoosiers should be moved down. Thus, the win over PSU will become an upset win while the home losses to IA and tOSU will no longer be upsets.
Moving Indiana down puts Ohio State at -2. The problem here is that if we move Ohio State down they go to +3 so they'll stay in tier-3 because -2 is closer than +3.
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Updated tiers:
- Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State
- Wisconsin, Maryland
- Iowa, Ohio State
- Minnesota
- Illinois, Rutgers, Indiana, Northwestern, Nebraska
- Penn State
Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue
- 16-4/27-4 Michigan
- 15-5/23-8 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker over MSU based on H2H, no game in East Lansing)
- 15-5/24-7 Michigan State
- 14-6/23-8 Maryland
- 13-7/24-7 Iowa
- 11-9/21-10 Ohio State
- 8-12/12-19 Illinois
- 7-13/17-14 Minnesota
- 6-14/13-17 Rutgers
- 5-15/15-16 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over IU and NU based on H2H2H, 2-0)
- 5-15/14-17 Indiana (loses tiebreaker to UNL based on H2H2H, 1-2; wins over NU based on record against the 15-5 teams)
- 5-15/14-17 Northwestern (loses to UNL based on H2H2H, 1-2; loses to IU based on record against the 15-5 teams)
- 3-17/10-21 Penn State
Thus, the projected BTT match-ups in Chicago are:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Nebraska vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Indiana vs #13 Northwestern, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):
- #5 Maryland vs IU/NU, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Iowa vs UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Ohio State vs #10 Rutgers, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Illinois vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Purdue vs IL/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Michigan vs tOSU/RU, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Wisconsin vs IA/UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Michigan State vs UMD/IU/NU, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- PU/IL/MN vs MSU/UMD/IU/NU, 1pm on CBS
- M/tOSU/RU vs UW/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- PU/IL/MN/MSU/UMD/IU/NU vs M/tOSU/RU/UW/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS
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FWIW:
The projection that I am the MOST confident about is that Ohio State will be the #7 seed in the BTT. It would take a lot of unexpected results to change that:
Upside for the Buckeyes:
The Buckeyes are projected to finish two games behind the Hawkeyes but in addition to that, the Buckeyes would probably lose a tie with the Hawkeyes because they can do no better than 1-1 H2H and the Hawkeyes have a better win (second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) then the next, etc). Consequently, there is very little chance of Ohio State passing the Hawkeyes for the #6 seed.
Downside for the Buckeyes:
The Buckeyes are projected to finish three games ahead of the Illini but in addition to that, the Buckeyes would likely win a tie with the Illini because they already won the "road" game against Illinois. Consequently, there is very little chance of Illinois passing the Buckeyes for the #7 seed.
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Small quibble, you have the 5 and 6 flipped as to who they'd play Thursday.
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B1G Bubble Watch:
According to Lunardi the B1G has three bubble teams. Ohio State and Minnesota are both listed among his "last four byes" as a #9 (tOSU) and #10 (MN) seeds while Indiana is barely out and included among his "first four out". However, that has not been updated since February 8 which was prior to Ohio State's win in Bloomington so it is a safe bet that when it gets updated the Buckeyes will have a bit more breathing room and the Hoosiers will be further out.
That said, I agree with Lunardi's assessment of B1G teams on the bubble. IMHO, the top-6 in the B1G standings (M, PU, MSU, UW, UMD, and IA) are all either locks (M) or "should be in" (the others). Conversely, PSU, UNL, NU, RU, and IL are all either in "need to win BTT" territory or "need a miraculous finish" territory.
Barring an unexpected collapse by one of our top teams or a spectacular finish by one of our bottom teams it appears to me that our bubble teams are the aforementioned Buckeyes, Gophers, and Hoosiers.
Ohio State 6-6/16-7 projected to finish 11-9/21-10:
The Buckeyes look a LOT better with the win in Bloomington than they looked before that. Their remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:
- vNU
- vIL
- @NU
- vIA
- vUW
- @UMD
- @MSU
- @PU
As I see it, the Buckeyes should win the first two (a loss in either would be surprising/shocking) and go at least 2-1 in #3-#5. If they do that, they will hit the BTT at 10-10/20-11 and probably in or at most just needing to win their first game to avoid a bad loss. The major problem for the Buckeyes, as I see it, is that #6-8 are very difficult and thus extremely unlikely for the Buckeyes to win. Consequently, an unexpected loss would be troubling because it would be VERY difficult to make up for it.
Minnesota 6-7/16-8 projected to finish 7-13/17-14:
The problem for the Gophers is that their remaining schedule is rough. Note that we project them to go just 1-6 in these last seven games. The good news is that a number of those projected losses are winnable games. The bad news is that they'll need to win a bunch of them because 7-13/17-14 obviously would not be enough. Their remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:
While we only project them to win #1, I consider #2-#4 to be "winnable" games while even #5 and #6 aren't impossible (because they are at home).
Indiana 4-9/13-11 projected to finish 5-15/14-17:
Much like Minnesota, the Hoosiers have a difficult remaining schedule. Indiana is in worse shape though because they have a worse record now. With nine conference losses already the Hoosiers have almost zero margin for error in their remaining seven games. Those remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:
I'm having trouble seeing a plausible path to an at-large berth for the Hoosiers.
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Small quibble, you have the 5 and 6 flipped as to who they'd play Thursday.
I don't think so. I have #5 Maryland playing #4 Michigan State and #6 Iowa playing #3 Wisconsin. No?
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I don't think so. I have #5 Maryland playing #4 Michigan State and #6 Iowa playing #3 Wisconsin. No?
No, not Friday, Thursday. You have 5 playing 11-14 and 6 playing 12-13
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Ohio State 6-6/16-7 projected to finish 11-9/21-10:
The Buckeyes look a LOT better with the win in Bloomington than they looked before that. Their remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:
- vNU
- vIL
- @NU
- vIA
- vUW
- @UMD
- @MSU
- @PU
I'd say the Illinois game is going to be harder than the @NU game. Illinois is improving and has won 4 of their last 5. Northwestern has lost 4 straight and their best win is against Illinois at home, which they barely won.
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No, not Friday, Thursday. You have 5 playing 11-14 and 6 playing 12-13
Oops, I see now. I fixed it.
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I'd say the Illinois game is going to be harder than the @NU game. Illinois is improving and has won 4 of their last 5. Northwestern has lost 4 straight and their best win is against Illinois at home, which they barely won.
That is entirely possible.
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Tonight's games are very interesting to me. By the standings, our #2 (PU) and #3 (MSU) teams are going on the road to play our #4/5 (UMD and UW). This will really clarify the regular season championship race.
If PU and MSU both win:
The Championship will effectively be a three-team race between PU and the two Michigan schools. Maryland and Wisconsin will be contending for the fourth and final double-bye with Iowa and Ohio State nipping at their heels.
If UMD and UW both win:
All five will still, at least for now, remain in contention for the Championship.
Do we have a top-3 then everyone else, or a top-4 then everyone else, or a top-5 then everyone else? We'll find that out tonight.
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Not excited for this matchup tonight. MSU backed into a big of a corner, UW a little less rested.
Granted, I don’t think a team could shoot worse at the rim than UW did in Ann Arbor.
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Not excited for this matchup tonight. MSU backed into a big of a corner, UW a little less rested.
Granted, I don’t think a team could shoot worse at the rim than UW did in Ann Arbor.
I read 14 for 46. Is this accurate? That's horrible.
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Not excited for this matchup tonight. MSU backed into a big of a corner, UW a little less rested.
Granted, I don’t think a team could shoot worse at the rim than UW did in Ann Arbor.
I'd be curious as to how road teams fare in these Tuesday games when both played over the weekend. I'm guessing not good. I don't think it's going to be like the Purdue game, I'm thinking MSU is ahead for a decent while, but always between like 2-6, then a UW run between the 12 and 8 TV timeouts flips that, and UW wins by about that margin.
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Sagarin has both road teams as slight favorites. Purdue by about a point and MSU by about two.
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I read 14 for 46. Is this accurate? That's horrible.
I think Potrykus wrote 37 percent, I had something like that, 6-20 after halftime.
Some of that is the Happ factor. When he goes 2-9 in a half, that’ll drag that down.
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I read 14 for 46. Is this accurate? That's horrible.
I don't know if it was that bad close to the rim, but it wasn't good. A lot of it came from how Teske was defending Happ late. After Happ return from his 3 foul autobench, with 9 minutes remaining, Teske still only had 1 foul and was free to play Happ as aggressively as it took, and Happ finished 2-for-9.
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Sagarin has both road teams as slight favorites. Purdue by about a point and MSU by about two.
If it plays out like that, the new standings (assuming Michigan wins at Penn State) will be:
- 12-2 Michigan
- 11-2 Purdue
- 11-3 Michigan State
- 9-5 Maryland
- 9-5 Wisconsin
- 8-5 Iowa
- 6-6 Ohio State
That would effectively eliminate UMD and UW from the Championship race because M, PU, and MSU aren't all going to play .500 ball down the stretch. If you need one really good team to have a bad stretch run there is hope but if you need three of them it is over.
The race for the #4 seed would be interesting with UMD, UW, IA, and tOSU all within one loss of each other for 4th place.
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Agreed. If the top three all win tonight, it really takes everyone else out of the race. Heck, effectively if either UW or MD lose tonight, they're eliminated from the race. Any team that wins at least still has a shot, but it's really only blown wide open if both win.
However, I posted the Sagarin not to highlight that MSU and PU are favored, but that they are favored by VERY narrow margins, and both play in quite hostile road venues. Effectively not much better than a pick'em game. Given the narrow margin, I wouldn't be shocked to see either home team win.
Vegas has Purdue by 2 or 2.5, depending on the sportsbook.
Vegas has MSU by 1.5 across the board.
Vegas has UM by 7 on the road against PSU.
I.e. a Terp or Badger win won't be much of a shock, while a PSU win would be a major shock.
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However, I posted the Sagarin not to highlight that MSU and PU are favored, but that they are favored by VERY narrow margins, and both play in quite hostile road venues. Effectively not much better than a pick'em game. Given the narrow margin, I wouldn't be shocked to see either home team win.
I was thinking the same thing, that is why I am so interested in these two games. I could see either of them going either way and it makes a big difference. UMD/UW are effectively facing elimination. If they both lose there is a four-way race for the final double-bye in the BTT (the #4 seed).
If they both win (still assuming Michigan wins at Penn State) the new standings would be:
- 12-2 Michigan
- 10-3 Purdue
- 10-4 Michigan State
- 10-4 Maryland
- 10-4 Wisconsin
Considering that Michigan's remaining schedule includes two games each against UMD and MSU the conference title race would be wide open among those five teams. I think that Purdue would be the odds on favorite because after tonight their toughest remaining game is either @IU (rivalry), @MN, or vs tOSU. They will be a pretty strong favorite in all three of those and an even bigger favorite in their other remaining games (vPSU, @UNL, vIL, @NU).
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Agreed. And if Purdue wins tonight, then I think they're the runaway favorite to finish as at least co-champion, regardless of Michigan winning tonight or anything MSU does.
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Apparently the line in some places has moved in some places 5.5 points in MSU's direction in the past day? Is there any Wisconsin news I'm missing? That seems like a lot of movement just based on action, and I'm surprised there would be that much action right now on MSU anyway.
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Massey composite rankings (58 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Duke (1)
- Gonzaga (3)
- Virginia (2)
- Tennessee (4)
- Kentucky (8)
- MICHIGAN (6)
- MICHIGAN STATE (5)
- North Carolina (7)
- PURDUE (11)
- Nevada (12)
- Kansas (10)
- Houston (13)
- Texas Tech (19)
- Villanova (15)
- Louisville (17)
- WISCONSIN (16)
- LSU (21)
- Virginia Tech (9)
- Iowa State (14)
- Florida State (-)
- Marquette (18)
- MARYLAND (22)
- Auburn (20)
- IOWA (23)
- Kansas State (-)
- 32. Ohio State (34)
- 46. Nebraska (37)
- 47. Minnesota (48)
- 48. Indiana (46)
- 74. Northwestern (65)
- 84. Illinois (105)
- 92. Penn State (98)
- 105. Rutgers (99)
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Apparently the line in some places has moved in some places 5.5 points in MSU's direction in the past day? Is there any Wisconsin news I'm missing? That seems like a lot of movement just based on action, and I'm surprised there would be that much action right now on MSU anyway.
Nothing out there to make this happen.
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B1G Bubble Watch:
According to Lunardi the B1G has three bubble teams. Ohio State and Minnesota are both listed among his "last four byes" as a #9 (tOSU) and #10 (MN) seeds while Indiana is barely out and included among his "first four out". However, that has not been updated since February 8 which was prior to Ohio State's win in Bloomington so it is a safe bet that when it gets updated the Buckeyes will have a bit more breathing room and the Hoosiers will be further out.
Oddly, at least according to Lunardi, the Buckeyes do have more breathing room (no longer listed on his bubble) but Indiana apparently didn't move down and is currently listed first among his "first four out". I think that is a stretch but whatever.
Other than making the tournament (which I think is in NO WAY assured), my hope for this year's Ohio State team is to get off of that 8/9 line so that they'll have at least a plausible shot at a S16 appearance. Right now Lunardi has the Buckeyes playing an 8/9 game against Washington in Columbia, SC. That would probably be a good game but the prize for the winner is a date with Dook so the chances of making out of the first weekend would be extraordinarily slim.
I updated the following two charts to include last year's tournament and UMBC's historic upset of #1 UVA. Even with that (which allowed #9 KSU to waltz into the S16, the 272 #8/9 seeds have only managed to make the S16 20 times. By way of comparison the 136 #7 seeds have 27 S16 appearances and the 136 #10 seeds have 23. In fact, #11 seeds have more S16 appearances than #8's and #9's combined and #12's have as many as #8's and #9's combined.
<br />(https://i.ibb.co/hDqNFss/of-appearances.jpg) (https://ibb.co/hDqNFss)<br /><br />(https://i.ibb.co/r5jz8sX/chance.jpg) (https://ibb.co/r5jz8sX)<br />
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FWIW:
Based on Lunardi's projections and historic performance by seed, we should have five or six teams win their NCAA Tournament opener and three teams make the S16:
- Two #2 seeds (M and MSU) each have a 94.12% chance of winning the 2/15 game and a 62.5% chance of making the S16
- One #3 seed (PU) has an 83.8% chance of winning the 3/14 game and a 51.5% chance of making the S16
- One #4 seed (UW) has a 79.4% chance of winning the 4/13 game and a 47.1% chance of making the S16
- Two #6 seeds (IA and UMD) each have a 62.5% chance of winning the 6/11 game and a 30.9% chance of making the S16
- One #9 seed (tOSU) has a 50% chance of winning the 8/9 game and a 5.1% chance of making the S16
- One #11 seed (MN) has a 37.5% chance of winning the 6/11 game and a 16.2% chance of making the S16
The odds to win the first game sum to 564% so, in theory, our league should put five or six teams in the Round of 32. The odds to make the S16 sum to 306.6% so, in theory, our league should put three teams in the Sweet Sixteen.
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) have you seen this link? http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html
Yeah, as you point out the 8/9 is a horrible seed line. They combine for about 15% of S16 appearances, whereas either 7 or 10 have individually better odds, and a combined 36% chance of making the S16.
Oddly enough although the goal is to climb to a 7, you almost would rather they fall to the 10 seed than stay at 8/9...
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) have you seen this link? http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html
Yeah, as you point out the 8/9 is a horrible seed line. They combine for about 15% of S16 appearances, whereas either 7 or 10 have individually better odds, and a combined 36% chance of making the S16.
Oddly enough although the goal is to climb to a 7, you almost would rather they fall to the 10 seed than stay at 8/9...
If I were a fan of a school that had either no tournament wins or very few tournament wins then I'd rather have my team be a #9 seed because they have a 50/50 chance of getting a tournament win. As a fan of a school that has tournament wins, I'd rather have my team be a #10 because #10 seeds are more than three times as likely to make it to the S16. In the long run I really only barely care whether or not my team wins the 8/9 or 7/10 game. In 10 years I won't even remember but in 10 years I will remember a S16 appearance so yeah, I'd rather have my team be a #10 than a #9.
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If I were a fan of a school that had either no tournament wins or very few tournament wins then I'd rather have my team be a #9 seed because they have a 50/50 chance of getting a tournament win. As a fan of a school that has tournament wins, I'd rather have my team be a #10 because #10 seeds are more than three times as likely to make it to the S16. In the long run I really only barely care whether or not my team wins the 8/9 or 7/10 game. In 10 years I won't even remember but in 10 years I will remember a S16 appearance so yeah, I'd rather have my team be a #10 than a #9.
Huge debates go on in the comments section at Hammer & Rails, the Purdue fan blog, about the value of the 6 seed...
Purdue has been screwed by our seeding. Every single time [in Painter's tenure] that we've made the S16 as a 4/5 seed, we've faced the #1 seed. With predictable results. The one time we made the S16 as a 2 seed, it was after the Haas injury in the R64 game, so we didn't have arguably our biggest mismatch.
Although more 4's and 5's make it to the Elite Eights than 6's, if you manage to reach the S16 as a 6 you have a 1/3 chance of making the Elite Eight. And then you have a greater chance that someone else has knocked off the #1 seed for you.
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Apparently the line in some places has moved in some places 5.5 points in MSU's direction in the past day? Is there any Wisconsin news I'm missing? That seems like a lot of movement just based on action, and I'm surprised there would be that much action right now on MSU anyway.
Opened pickem, seems to be bouncing between 2 or 2.5 either way
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Just when I think Mark Turgeon can't field a worst team, we play another game.
No one does less with more than this clown.
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I don't know if it was that bad close to the rim, but it wasn't good. A lot of it came from how Teske was defending Happ late. After Happ return from his 3 foul autobench, with 9 minutes remaining, Teske still only had 1 foul and was free to play Happ as aggressively as it took, and Happ finished 2-for-9.
That’s fair, but some of it was, Happ missed shots you just need to hit to pull that upset. Were they easy, no, but neither were Matthews’.
He had a pretty understated play that wasn’t that. Happ tried to zip a pass to Reuvers cutting to the rim. It was probably aggressive, but Teske batted and caught it. If UW gets a dunk there (maybe and-1 if lucky), it’s a 1-point game. Instead it was 53-50 before the long stalemate that ended with a tough Matthews basket to make it a 5-point game with under 1:30.
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Just when I think Mark Turgeon can't field a worst team, we play another game.
No one does less with more than this clown.
Well, Painter is trying to keep the Terps in it, throwing Boudreaux out there at the 5. He can't compete with guys like Fernando.
I recognize Williams got an early foul, but I wonder why we're not at least trying to get Haarms in there. If the foul trouble gets rough, bring out Boudreaux for some minutes later in the game.
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Well, Painter is trying to keep the Terps in it, throwing Boudreaux out there at the 5. He can't compete with guys like Fernando.
I recognize Williams got an early foul, but I wonder why we're not at least trying to get Haarms in there. If the foul trouble gets rough, bring out Boudreaux for some minutes later in the game.
Has Boudreaux kinda been a dud for y’all?
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Has Boudreaux kinda been a dud for y’all?
He started the year playing the 5. I think part of that is that it's what he wants, but also that we didn't realize Williams was going to be good. He did pretty well against mid-major competition, but he started to fall off when we faced better competition, who had legit athletic, skilled, bigs.
Boudreaux just isn't a 5 in this league. 5's in this league have 2-6 inches on him and 30 lbs, as well as being skilled and athletic enough to make use of that size. He's just not capable of handling them.
I like him, but I think he needs to find a way to move to the 4. I think he's be more suited there.
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UW opened with an Iverson post up and is down 4-0. I am annoyed.
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He started the year playing the 5. I think part of that is that it's what he wants, but also that we didn't realize Williams was going to be good. He did pretty well against mid-major competition, but he started to fall off when we faced better competition, who had legit athletic, skilled, bigs.
Boudreaux just isn't a 5 in this league. 5's in this league have 2-6 inches on him and 30 lbs, as well as being skilled and athletic enough to make use of that size. He's just not capable of handling them.
I like him, but I think he needs to find a way to move to the 4. I think he's be more suited there.
UW fans were hoping to get him as a third Big, though a skinny stretch 4 was kinda in his path. Would’ve liked him. Oh well.
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How many missed layups are we at now? 6?
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Purdue over-helps on D, leading to wide-open 3 point attempts... It's been a problem all year, largely caused by the inability to defend straight up at the 5 when Williams isn't in. So we over-help on a big, leaving a shooter sitting wide open usually on the weak side.
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Wisconsin is being sloppy and it is causing me to have rage. Also Iverson is being super useless.
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Painter out coaches Turgeon hands down with special needs kids.
Turgeon is a moron.
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Painter out coaches Turgeon hands down with special needs kids.
Turgeon is a moron.
Ouch... Special needs kids???
That's patently offensive even before I mention being the father of a special needs kid...
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Ouch... Special needs kids???
That's patently offensive even before I mention being the father of a special needs kid...
I could have been "more offensive".
I was being PC and also saying Turgeon sucks. I'm sure saying "Turgeon sucks" offends someone, but the truth hurts.
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UW went up 7 and then gave up a 8-0 run becuase it is trying to kill me.
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I could have been "more offensive".
I was being PC and also saying Turgeon sucks. I'm sure saying "Turgeon sucks" offends someone, but the truth hurts.
You can do better, mcw...
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You can do better, mcw...
Alright.
Turgeon still sucks.
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with special needs kids.
It's not about PC, and it doesn't even have to be about being a good person, but at least know your audience. Even if the rest of us were shitheads, you're posting with like 4 people about this game, people you post with often enough to have learned their personal details, so you must have learned that this was gross wording to read for one of them. It doesn't matter which filter you pick, but at one level or another, word your business differently.
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Wisconsin continues to try to kill me. Went up 4 maybe 6, now down 1
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Wisconsin continues to try to kill me. Went up 4 maybe 6, now down 1
I think it was 6. In these runs for MSU, it's clear to me that Winston's most lethal contribution is his transition 3.
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I think it was 6. In these runs for MSU, it's clear to me that Winston's most lethal contribution is his transition 3.
He is enragingly good.
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I think Purdue's legs are showing.
Purdue played recently, Maryland hasn't.
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The hook and hold is about to hurt Wisconsin and it will anger me.
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The hook and hold is about to hurt Wisconsin and it will anger me.
It did not, but UW’s offense is gone and I am not happy.
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That. Effin. Sucked.
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That. Effin. Sucked.
It's weird to say that sometimes Happ is a liability. Everyone already knew about the FTs, but he's had low ORtg on high usage for the last two games, and that just destroys a team.
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Michigan is looking sloppy on both ends right now. And slower than PSU, which is surprising me. Also, the rebounding is a head scratcher.
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It's weird to say that sometimes Happ is a liability. Everyone already knew about the FTs, but he's had low ORtg on high usage for the last two games, and that just destroys a team.
He is at times. There’s a weird question if the offer might run smoother next year, maybe not better, but smoother.
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Ha, has John Beilein been ejected from a game before ... ever? I'm sure any coach can deserve it and I have no idea what he said, but before giving the goodie two-shoes of college basketball two successive technicals, I might more strongly consider if his message is reasonable.
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Ew, that moving screen against Simpson looked ... well at first I said dirty, but I'm editing to say "obvious." But with the elbow in addition to the moving screen, I do think it could have been called as a flagrant, instead of fully uncalled. Beilein was right to be mad.
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I thought the missed bunnies might do MSU in, but instead it was Happ being an offensive black hole. He's amazing, but wasn't great today, and was absolutely never looking to kick the ball out. If you can 100% commit to a double, it helps.
I think Izzo needs to figure out smart ways to buy Winston minutes, and he's not. The under 12 ran way late, I think it was close to 10 when called. MSU still had all 3 timeouts. Winston looked gassed. Take him out, call a full timeout the first time you get the ball under 8:30, and it triggers the under 8 with the new rule, and you still have 2 timeouts. You've only taken Winston out for about 90 seconds of game time, but bookended it with two full TV timeouts. That doesn't even feel like 400 level time management.
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A lot of breaks tonight for PSU, the weird Beilein double-T, the ignored double-dribble, etc. But it will still go down as by far Michigan's worst loss of the year, so you know it was earned on both sides.
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Well tonight sure as hell went swimmingly for MSUs Big Ten chances.
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A lot of breaks tonight for PSU, the weird Beilein doubt-T, etc. But it will still go down as by far Michigan's worst loss of the year, so you know it was earned on both sides.
I think all the teams in the top bunch have a game like that where they lost to somebody they'd beat 8, 9, or 10 out of 10 times...
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I think all the teams in the top bunch have a game like that where they lost to somebody they'd beat 8, 9, or 10 out of 10 times...
Fortunately for Purdue, theirs were non conference.
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I missed tonight's games for an event, but I figured Michigan would lose a game that they shouldn't at some point. I wish it wasn't to PSU of all teams but sobeit. It sounds like Purdue continues to look beatable with their loss tonight, as well, so I figure that 16-4 will still win the BigTen if not 15-5.
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I did enjoy Frank Kaminsky and Miles Bridges lighting up Dakich on Twitter during the game, as Dakich continues to point out every time Kaminsky has a bad game. At least Vitale is full clown that nobody takes seriously, Dakich is still treated as somebody who should be paid attention to for some reason. He even makes Joel Klatt grimace.
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It's not about PC, and it doesn't even have to be about being a good person, but at least know your audience. Even if the rest of us were shitheads, you're posting with like 4 people about this game, people you post with often enough to have learned their personal details, so you must have learned that this was gross wording to read for one of them. It doesn't matter which filter you pick, but at one level or another, word your business differently.
It's not even about me... It's that there's no way that statement can go well.
One way to interpret it is that Purdue's roster is special needs kids. Which is basically saying that the team tied for the conference lead has players that don't deserve to be there.
The other way to interpret it is that Painter could outcoach Turgeon with a roster legitimately of special needs kids. Which is absurd and outlandish. Hyperbole is one thing, but that's just assuming that Maryland's players should just destroy Purdue but Turgeon is squandering their talent. Again, it comes off dismissive to Purdue, which is a pretty good team.
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Painter out coaches Turgeon hands down with special needs kids.
Turgeon is a moron.
Beyond being gross, Md also won by 14 against a top 3 team in the conference.
Our experience of angst during the game comes in all forms, as does our various ways of feeing about coaches. But somehow, Maryland will soldier on, being good enough to not fire the coach for yet another season.
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It's not even about me... It's that there's no way that statement can go well.
One way to interpret it is that Purdue's roster is special needs kids. Which is basically saying that the team tied for the conference lead has players that don't deserve to be there.
The other way to interpret it is that Painter could outcoach Turgeon with a roster legitimately of special needs kids. Which is absurd and outlandish. Hyperbole is one thing, but that's just assuming that Maryland's players should just destroy Purdue but Turgeon is squandering their talent. Again, it comes off dismissive to Purdue, which is a pretty good team.
I agree. I was just chasing a non-PC admonishment, and knowing one's audience (in the cfb51 case, friendship) came first. Yours are probably better.
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Interesting stat:
When Lewis Garrison refs, Michigan is 1-3. When anyone else refs, Michigan is 21-0.
Garrison also happens to be the only ref since the 1970s to eject one John Beilein.
Michigan fans are making it out to be the obvious sign of a scandal. I think it is more likely explained as a matter of reffing style. But even then, it's likely that Garrison has unconventional reffing habits and that his habits, even if totally innocent (and I have to give him that benefit of the doubt), are maximally and asymmetrically taxing to the idiosyncratic ways Michigan plays. Especially in the Iowa and PSU games.
It'll be disappointing if he refs m/any more of Michigan's games.
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That. Effin. Sucked.
About sums it up. Put a fork in the championship now. Now I'm just hoping for 4th place and a Friday start.
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3 points in the last 5 minutes is not how to beat a good team.
Happ was 10-20 from point blank range. 0-6 from the FT line. 6 (of UW's 10) turnovers. Those are not player of the year numbers - just decent, sans that ugly FT crap.
The real story? Davison 3-12 (2-8 from 3) and Trice 1-6 (0-2). MSU shut down the perimeter. They did a great job.
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I missed tonight's games for an event, but I figured Michigan would lose a game that they shouldn't at some point. I wish it wasn't to PSU of all teams but sobeit. It sounds like Purdue continues to look beatable with their loss tonight, as well, so I figure that 16-4 will still win the BigTen if not 15-5.
We currently project Purdue to win out and win the conference at 17-3 with MSU a game back at 16-4. I think it is reasonably likely that Purdue will drop a game such that 16-4 will win the B1G but I highly doubt that 15-5 would be enough. That would require all of the following:
- Michigan to finish no better than 4-2
- Michigan State to finish no better than 4-2
- Purdue to finish no better than 5-2
- Maryland to finish no better than 5-1
Any one or two of those things happening is reasonably likely. All five of those things happening seems extremely unlikely to me.
IMHO, something is wrong with the Wolverines. Maybe the peaked too early, I'm not sure but this just doesn't look like the quality of team that they looked like back in early January. Heading into the M/tOSU game, as an Ohio State fan, I frankly expected the Buckeyes to get run out of the gym. At the time I saw Michigan as a possible #1 seed and I saw (and continue to see) the Buckeyes as a borderline tournament team. Thus, I thought that Ohio State would need to play their best game just to keep it close. Instead, I thought Ohio State played a terrible game and was still within striking distance until very late. Since then the Wolverines are 2-2 and just look pretty average.
In Michigan's last six games they play Maryland and Michigan State twice each. I'm really looking forward to seeing how those games play out because I think Michigan needs to get something (I'm not sure what) straightened out before the tournament.
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Purdue just had a cold shooting night. They scored 38 in the first half but only 18 in the second half.
It was even more glaring when you look at the second half in sections. In the first 8 minutes, Purdue scored 10 points, while Maryland scored 18 to tie the game at 48. In the final 12 minutes of the game, Purdue could only score 8 points.
Purdue shot 28% for the night. That's not going to get it done against anyone in the B1G, and certainly not against a team like Maryland.
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Attaboy Leos.
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Purdue just had a cold shooting night. They scored 38 in the first half but only 18 in the second half.
Sounds very familiar to me, being a Badger fan, as if it just happened yesterday.
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Man, how good is the Big Ten. The worst team is...Rutgers I guess, at least by the stats guys. But they are still pretty tough, and have wins over Miami, OSU, Nebraska, and Indiana. By KenPom they are within a tic of UCLA, Notre Dame, Missouri, and South Carolina.
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Man, how good is the Big Ten. The worst team is...Rutgers I guess, at least by the stats guys. But they are still pretty tough, and have wins over Miami, OSU, Nebraska, and Indiana. By KenPom they are within a tic of UCLA, Notre Dame, Missouri, and South Carolina.
Right now I think the B1G's worst team might be Northwestern, I guess we'll find out tonight. Actually, both games tonight are interesting:
Minnesota at Nebraska:
By the tiers this is a projected loss for the Gophers but I actually think they'll probably pull it off. They need this game. Minnesota is a bubble team and currently projected to finish 7-13/17-14. That wouldn't be enough so they are going to have to pick up an unexpected win or two. This game might be their best chance to do that.
Rutgers at Northwestern:
Rutgers has two nice upset wins (vtOSU, @PSU) but they also have an unexpected loss (vNU). Tonight is their opportunity to avenge that unexpected home loss and make a strong case that they are not the B1G's doormat.
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I know it's not B1G, but I don't think anyone except God and maybe Dickie V knew the Dookies were going to pull that one off last night. Down 20+ with 9 minutes left. Total collapse by L'ville.
Makes Iowa's comeback against NU look like small potatoes.
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Sounds very familiar to me, being a Badger fan, as if it just happened yesterday.
youse guys have no idear about cold shooting
the Huskers are setting records - record cold
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Was listening to Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander speculate that the committee is probably going to align themselves with the NET rankings, more than we might be accustomed to. Particularly when it comes to including mid-major at larges who rank high in it. Currently Buffalo (#24), Wofford (#28) and Lipscomb (#30) are all top 30 NET teams.
In the past, the RPI was a guideline, that they used, but they could deviate from it too, namely when they felt it overvalued mid-majors. Here, it's still a guideline, but it's their guideline, that they created, for this specific purpose. So for them to exclude teams like that is basically telling people that the algorithm that they created themselves, specifically for tourney selection, is wrong. They likely aren't going to want to even hint at going down that road in Year 1, so they expect the selections to closely adhere to it.
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Interesting stat:
When Lewis Garrison refs, Michigan is 1-3. When anyone else refs, Michigan is 21-0.
Garrison also happens to be the only ref since the 1970s to eject one John Beilein.
Michigan fans are making it out to be the obvious sign of a scandal. I think it is more likely explained as a matter of reffing style. But even then, it's likely that Garrison has unconventional reffing habits and that his habits, even if totally innocent (and I have to give him that benefit of the doubt), are maximally and asymmetrically taxing to the idiosyncratic ways Michigan plays. Especially in the Iowa and PSU games.
It'll be disappointing if he refs m/any more of Michigan's games.
I dont know that Garrison provided either of the Technical's. It was bizarre all around. The screen was moving a little and the elbow came high towards Simpson's head. They review that most times, so I dont get why at the end of the half it wasn't done. The 1st technical makes sense, but based on the replay, the 2nd T came from the official furthest from Beilein in the midst of a conversation with someone 80 feet away at the scorers table. He either heard something he didnt like, or was on a power trip, and decided to use it to his advantage. That sequence combined with the official that missed the 3rd grade level double dribble at a key spot down the stretch, left a lot to be desired for that crew.
Regardless, Michigan performed terribly. The defensive scheme was a mess, until Livers was put on Stevens. Offensively they were out of sync. And, now that Matthews finally looks to be fixed, Iggy is has hit a massive Freshman slump. Add in some head-scratching turnovers from Poole and Simpson, and you have the recipe for the upset.
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Glad to see that Ttun fans don't confine their zebra condemnation to the gridiron.
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Glad to see that Ttun fans don't confine their zebra condemnation to the gridiron.
To be fair, I haven't seen them blaming the refs, just some general complaints. I perceive a general acknowledgement that when the first place team in the B1G loses to the last place team in the B1G it isn't just about officials.
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To be fair, I haven't seen them blaming the refs, just some general complaints. I perceive a general acknowledgement that when the first place team in the B1G loses to the last place team in the B1G it isn't just about officials.
That said, I think there have been a few hanky things going on with officials.
Garrison was a ref for the Purdue @ PSU game where PSU went to the line 41 times to Purdue's 21, and around 6 of Purdue's were at the end of OT when PSU was intentionally fouling.
Garrison was a ref the next night for Michigan @ Iowa, where Iowa went to the line 24 times to Michigan's 12.
Garrison was again a ref last night for Michigan @ PSU, where PSU went to the line 34 times to Michigan's 16.
Those are some games where I saw a lot of verbal complaints about one-sided officiating.
I think it would be interesting to see what other games he's reffed this year and see if there's anything to be taken away from it.
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That said, I think there have been a few hanky things going on with officials.
Garrison was a ref for the Purdue @ PSU game where PSU went to the line 41 times to Purdue's 21, and around 6 of Purdue's were at the end of OT when PSU was intentionally fouling.
Garrison was a ref the next night for Michigan @ Iowa, where Iowa went to the line 24 times to Michigan's 12.
Garrison was again a ref last night for Michigan @ PSU, where PSU went to the line 34 times to Michigan's 16.
Those are some games where I saw a lot of verbal complaints about one-sided officiating.
I think it would be interesting to see what other games he's reffed this year and see if there's anything to be taken away from it.
That can be misleading. Michigan had like 9 fouls in the last 2.30 of the game, most of them very intentional.
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That can be misleading. Michigan had like 9 fouls in the last 2.30 of the game, most of them very intentional.
Possibly true. I didn't watch the Michigan games, so I don't know. I can say that the Purdue/PSU game was actually much MORE lopsided as far as the calls than the numbers show, because PSU started intentionally fouling in OT and that got Purdue to the line a bunch late.
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Garrison was the same guy that marched over to get face to face with Izzo once as well.
Bad calls be damned, but when the officials make it abou them and fuel confrontation’s they are forgetting who the fans pay to see. When a coach hasn’t been kicked out of a game for 30+ years and you throw an ejection at him from 80 ft away while you are tied up in a separate conversation, there might be a little self reflecting necessary.
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Guessing Collins is no longer Ks heir apparent
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I already acknowledged that Garrison correlating to 1-3 versus 21-0 could be idiosyncratic (that there's something, not about Michigan, but about Michigan's style that he calls differently than other refs). It could also be a whopper of a genuine coincidence. Not every complaint about a ref is a conspiracy theory. Both that can be true and that the correlation is curious.
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Guessing Collins is no longer Ks heir apparent
Never was.
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I already acknowledged that Garrison correlating to 1-3 versus 21-0 could be idiosyncratic (that there's something, not about Michigan, but about Michigan's style that he calls differently than other refs). It could also be a whopper of a genuine coincidence. Not every complaint about a ref is a conspiracy theory. Both that can be true and that the correlation is curious.
Was he reffing Minn-Neb. That was a rough end.
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Was he reffing Minn-Neb. That was a rough end.
That was Kelly Pfeiffer. Young up and comer from South Dakota. He does a lot of B1G games. Does a good job in what I have seen. Ended up next to him on a plane once. Happy to chat about the nuances of each coach. Wouldn't say a bad thing about any current or former officials though. I was prodding him on TV Teddy. Looks like he got whistle happy and anticipated the foul in a big moment. Tough way for that one to end.
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I've met Kelly Pfeiffer and wouldn't call him a good friend, but he has set me up with tickets to B1G basketball games in the past couple seasons.
Therefore, whenever he's on the court I pay attention to the job his crew does. I think that crew is one of the better crews in the B1G. Obviously they have some moments, it's a tough job. but overall they are solid
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Two observations from last night's games:
First, I think that Northwestern is the worst team in the B1G right now. Looking at the whole season maybe not, but right now I think they are the team you want your team to be playing if you just need a win.
Second, I think that Minnesota's potential path to the Tournament is getting VERY narrow. IMHO, they really needed that game last night. They are now 6-8 and here are the six remaining games ranked, as usual, from most likely win to most likely loss:
- @ Northwestern 2/28
- vs Indiana 2/16
- @ Rutgers 2/24
- vs Michigan 2/21
- vs Purdue 3/5
- @ Maryland 3/8
IMHO, the Gophers have little or no chance in each of the last three listed above which means that they have to win the first three. That isn't impossible but it leaves them with almost no margin for error.
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I've met Kelly Pfeiffer and wouldn't call him a good friend, but he has set me up with tickets to B1G basketball games in the past couple seasons.
Therefore, whenever he's on the court I pay attention to the job his crew does. I think that crew is one of the better crews in the B1G. Obviously they have some moments, it's a tough job. but overall they are solid
That call is starting to make more sense...even if you wouldn't call him a "friend" of the Nebraska program
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Two observations from last night's games:
First, I think that Northwestern is the worst team in the B1G right now. Looking at the whole season maybe not, but right now I think they are the team you want your team to be playing if you just need a win.
Second, I think that Minnesota's potential path to the Tournament is getting VERY narrow. IMHO, they really needed that game last night. They are now 6-8 and here are the six remaining games ranked, as usual, from most likely win to most likely loss:
- @ Northwestern 2/28
- vs Indiana 2/16
- @ Rutgers 2/24
- vs Michigan 2/21
- vs Purdue 3/5
- @ Maryland 3/8
IMHO, the Gophers have little or no chance in each of the last three listed above which means that they have to win the first three. That isn't impossible but it leaves them with almost no margin for error.
Could Lil Ricky survive that? 6 years and 1 tourney, with zero tourney wins. They haven't won a postseason game of any kind since 2014, his first year. They ran Tubby off after 6 years, and he did substantially better.
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What was the record that the tier system predicted for Minnesota over its last 12 or 14 games, and how's it doing so far? My hunch is that Minnesota is bearing the tiers out.
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Two observations from last night's games:
First, I think that Northwestern is the worst team in the B1G right now. Looking at the whole season maybe not, but right now I think they are the team you want your team to be playing if you just need a win.
Second, I think that Minnesota's potential path to the Tournament is getting VERY narrow. IMHO, they really needed that game last night. They are now 6-8 and here are the six remaining games ranked, as usual, from most likely win to most likely loss:
- @ Northwestern 2/28
- vs Indiana 2/16
- @ Rutgers 2/24
- vs Michigan 2/21
- vs Purdue 3/5
- @ Maryland 3/8
IMHO, the Gophers have little or no chance in each of the last three listed above which means that they have to win the first three. That isn't impossible but it leaves them with almost no margin for error.
It's probably a three-way tie between Northwestern, Penn State, and Rutgers.
And that's a DAMN strong floor too. The worst B1G team is still probably in the upper-half of Q2.
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That call is starting to make more sense...even if you wouldn't call him a "friend" of the Nebraska program
call could have gone either way very easily
wasn't a "bad" call IMO
if the game had been played in Minneapolis, it probably goes the other way
home court does have it's advantage
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What was the record that the tier system predicted for Minnesota over its last 12 or 14 games, and how's it doing so far? My hunch is that Minnesota is bearing the tiers out.
So far they have matched their projection almost perfectly. They have the one upset win way back on January 3 in Madison and their other 13 games have gone according to the projection.
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Could Lil Ricky survive that? 6 years and 1 tourney, with zero tourney wins. They haven't won a postseason game of any kind since 2014, his first year. They ran Tubby off after 6 years, and he did substantially better.
If they miss the Tournament one would have to think that he is in trouble.
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B1G Bubble Watch:
IMHO, we only really have maybe three "bubble" teams. Our top six (M, MSU, PU, UMD, UW, IA) would all be pretty safely "in" if the tournament started today. I think that the Michigan Schools are already locks and the other four will make it barring some remarkable unexpected collapse.
Meanwhile, at the bottom it seems that there are five teams that would need a miracle (PSU, NU, UNL, RU, IL). That leaves just three, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Indiana.
Ohio State hosts Illinois tonight in a game that they really need to win. We are currently projecting an 11-9/21-10 finish for the Buckeyes and that would get them in but the problem, as I see it, is that the projection is basically a "ceiling". The three projected losses are near-impossible games (@MSU, @UMD, @PU). Then there are three very likely wins (vIL, vNU, @NU). Then there are two projected wins that could really go either way (vIA, vUW). This isn't quite a "must win" for the Buckeyes, but it isn't far from it. If they lose at home to Illinois they'll need to make up for it by winning a more difficult game later.
The other two bubble teams play each other in Minneapolis on Saturday and I see this game as nearly an elimination game for both teams. The loser will absorb their ninth (MN) or tenth (IU) conference loss and while they could theoretically still make the tournament it isn't likely.
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Can't remember who it was, but when OSU played Illinois earlier in the year one of their top players had an awkward fall from above the rim. He was writhing around and wailing in pain through clenched teeth for several minutes before finally being helped to his feet where two trainers had to walk him gingerly into the locker room. Then like a minute later he miraculously came racing back onto the court as though nothing had happened, so they stuck him back into the game and he immediately picked up his fifth foul. It was kind of funny
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OSU getting the anti home cooking
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Well, that hurts tOSU's Tournament chances.
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OSU getting the anti home cooking
A. How so?
B. Jeez OSU
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Tough loss for the Bucks. Still a year away, watching Keyshawn Woods try to drive gives me a migraine
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**sigh**
So done with Basketball...
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After the win in Bloomington it looked like the Buckeyes were in good shape but now they are back to close/barely in.
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10 years since Illinois won at OSU. It's exciting to be excited about Illinois basketball again.
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I'm not looking forward to seeing that team in Madison on Monday night. It's been a long wait, but it seems to me Illinois finally has a coach.
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The tiers are a bit of a mess right now:
Illinois is at +3 but all three upsets have come in the last 2.5 weeks (@*UMD, vMSU, @tOSU). I don't think this is so much a matter of our tiers being "wrong" as it is of Illinois improving a LOT.
Ohio State is at -3 but they are back to being in a no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4. In tier-3 (where they are now) the Buckeyes are -3 due to three upset losses (vIL, vUMD, @RU) but if we moved them down to tier-4 they would be at +2. Nonetheless, I think the Buckeyes need to move down.
Here is the comparison: The difference between tier-3 and tier-4 is the expected result in home games against tier-2 teams and road games against tier-5 teams. Ohio State's results in those games:
- vUW, 3/10
- vUMD, L
- @IL, W
- @RU, L
- @IU, W
- @NU, 3/6
- @UNL, W
So the Buckeyes are 3-2 in these games with two more to play but they also have an additional upset loss (vIL) so I'm going to put them back in tier-4 because +2 is closer to the projection than -3.
Illinois is a bit more complicated. Moving Ohio State down to tier-4 makes Illinois' home* loss to Ohio State a negative upset so they are now at +2 with their three aforementioned positive upsets and that negative upset. The difference between tier-5 (where they are now) and tier-4 is the expected result in home games against tier-3 teams and road games against tier-6 teams. There are only two such potential games:
- vIA, not played
- @PSU, 3/10
I think, based on their recent improvement that we should move them up. Thus, the new tiers are:
- PU, M, MSU
- UW, UMD
- IA
- tOSU, MN, IL
- RU, IU, NU, UNL
- PSU
*Note that Ohio State's win over Illinois was a neutral site game in the United Center not a true Illinois home game but I am treating it as an Illinois home game because that it what it replaced.
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ESPN Bubble Watch take on last night:
A 63-56 loss at home to Illinois constitutes a Quad 3 defeat for Ohio State, the team's first such setback. In other words, the game is literally the Buckeyes' worst loss of the season in profile terms. Then again, Baylor's walking around whistling a happy tune in the brackets as a projected No. 8 seed even though the Bears have suffered two Quad 4 losses. Meaning the worry for OSU isn't necessarily the loss itself, one that this team's profile can well absorb. (Yet another reason why that win at Cincinnati is so valuable.) Rather, the concern is whether the outcome marks a new turn for the worse in performance.
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Based on the new tiers listed above, our new projections are:
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue
- 16-4/25-6 Michigan State
- 15-5/26-5 Michigan (wins tiebreaker over UW based on record against PU, see below)
- 15-5/23-8 Wisconsin
- 14-6/23-8 Maryland
- 13-7/24-7 Iowa
- 10-10/14-17 Illinois
- 8-12/18-13 Ohio State
- 7-13/17-14 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker over RU based on record against UW, see below)
- 7-13/14-16 Rutgers
- 5-15/15-16 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over IU and NU based on H2H2H, 2-0)
- 5-15/14-17 Indiana (loses tiebreaker to UNL based on H2H2H, beats NU based on record against MSU)
- 5-15/14-17 Northwestern
- 3-17/10-21 Penn State
Based on these projections the BTT match-ups in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Nebraska vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Indiana vs #13 Northwestern, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):
- #5 Maryland vs IU/NU, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Iowa vs UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Illinois vs #10 Rutgers, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Ohio State vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Purdue vs tOSU/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Michigan State vs IL/RU, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Michigan vs IA/UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Wisconsin vs UMD/IU/NU, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- PU/tOSU/MN vs UW/UMD/IU/NU, 1pm on CBS
- MSU/IL/RU vs M/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- PU/tOSU/MN/UW/UMD/IU/NU vs MSU/IL/RU/M/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS
Tiebreakers:
Michigan and Wisconsin are projected to tie at 15-5. The first tiebreaker is H2H. They went 1-1 against each other with each team winning their home game. The next tiebreaker is record against Purdue. Neither team travels to West Lafayette this year. Michigan beat the Boilermakers in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin lost to them in Madison. Thus, Michigan wins this tie.
Minnesota and Rutgers are projected to tie at 7-13. The first tiebreaker is H2H. Minnesota won their home game against Rutgers and Rutgers is projected to win their home game against Minnesota. The next tiebreaker is record against PU where both teams are projected to go 0-season followed by record against MSU where both are projected to go 0-season. Next is record against the two 15-5 teams (Michigan and Wisconsin). Minnesota upset Wisconsin in Madison while Rutgers is projected to go 0-season against those two teams.
Nebraska, Indiana, and Northwestern are projected to tie at 5-15. The first tiebreaker is H2H2H. Nebraska does not travel to Northwestern nor host Indiana and they won at Indiana so they are projected to go 2-0 and win this tie. That leaves Northwestern and Indiana who went 1-1 against each other (each winning the home game) and are both projected to go 0-1 against Nebraska. That tie gets broken based on record against the best team(s) in the conference, then the next, etc. Indiana wins because their win over MSU is better than anything Northwestern has.
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ESPN Bubble Watch take on last night:
A 63-56 loss at home to Illinois constitutes a Quad 3 defeat for Ohio State, the team's first such setback. In other words, the game is literally the Buckeyes' worst loss of the season in profile terms. Then again, Baylor's walking around whistling a happy tune in the brackets as a projected No. 8 seed even though the Bears have suffered two Quad 4 losses. Meaning the worry for OSU isn't necessarily the loss itself, one that this team's profile can well absorb. (Yet another reason why that win at Cincinnati is so valuable.) Rather, the concern is whether the outcome marks a new turn for the worse in performance.
It isn't so much a new turn for the worse as simply an illustration of the fact that this Ohio State team is capable of playing REALLY bad basketball and they seem to randomly do that from time to time. In their last two losses (@M, vIL) the Buckeyes shot 7-34 from behind the arc and committed 37 turnovers. They outrebounded both the Wolverines and the Illini but still took less shots due to the plethora of turnovers and then, in both cases, they suffered from horrendous long-range shooting. More in forthcoming B1G Bubble Watch post.
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If the goal is winning the thing, which I truly don't think should be MSU's this year, but that's a different point, Illinois is the team I would most want to avoid right now. They are the only team with a 2 game buffer on either side, so if you had to pick one of these seeds to not change, I suppose it would be Illinois as the 7. So MSU as the 2 is sub ideal. I think Iowa is MSU's best matchup of that likely 6-7-8ish group, for whatever reason, I think primarily a defense that doesn't like to put a ton of pressure on the ball, MSU has matched up very well with Iowa for a couple years now. For a turnover prone team like the Spartans typically are, Illinois' style is a nightmare for us, as already shown.
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B1G Bubble Watch:
In Lunardi's latest bracketology there isn't much change for the B1G's best teams. Wisconsin moves down to a #5 seed but otherwise the top six teams remain the same:
- #2 seeds: Michigan, Michigan State
- #3 seed: Purdue
- #5 seed: Wisconsin
- #6 seeds: Iowa, Maryland
After that, Lunardi still has Ohio State as a #9 seed while Minnesota is one of his "last four byes" with a #12 seed and Indiana is one of his "last four in" playing Oklahoma in Dayton for a #13 seed.
Lets talk about the bottom eight teams in the B1G:
6-7/16-8 Ohio State, projected to finish 8-12/18-13:
The Buckeyes' loss last night at home to Illinois is, by far, their worst of the season but their overall profile can absorb that. That loss did, however, significantly narrow Ohio State's path. The projected 8-12/18-13 finish would, at best, mean that the Buckeyes would need to make a run in the United Center. Ohio State has two games left against Northwestern and they badly need to win both. They also have three long-shots (@PU, @UMD, @MSU) and two games that could go either way (vIA, vUW). To get to .500 they'll have to win all the winnable games. Anything less than that and they'll have work to do in Chicago.
6-8/16-9 Minnesota, projected to finish 7-13/17-14:
The Gophers' loss in Lincoln is problematic because it narrows their path. IMHO their game against Indiana in Minneapolis on Saturday is close to a "must win". In theory they could lose at home to Indiana and make it anyway but in practice that would require winning tougher games later.
4-9/13-11 Indiana, projected to finish 5-15/14-17:
The game in Minneapolis is important for the Hoosiers as well. IMHO, the loser (either way) is in major trouble.
6-8/10-15 Illinois, projected to finish 10-10/14-17:
The Illini are an interesting case. IIRC, their 15 losses would be the most ever for an at-large team but they have some really good wins and a strong overall SoS. If they finish REALLY well I could see them getting in with 16 losses but that would require winning out to the BTT. Could they get in with 17 losses?
5-9/12-12 Rutgers, projected to finish 7-13/14-16:
I do think that Rutgers has improved but not enough. They had a REALLY LONG way to go. They would need a miraculous finish involving winning nearly all of their remaining games.
4-10/14-11 Nebraska, projected to finish 5-15/15-16:
Ever since the injury this just has not been a good team. They need a miracle.
3-10/12-12 Northwestern, projected to finish 5-15/14-17:
IMHO, this is the worst team in the league right now and I just don't see them changing that. They need a miracle.
2-11/9-15 Penn State, projected to finish 3-17/10-21:
The Nittany Lions have been close plenty of times and pulled off a nice upset over Michigan but they just have too many losses. They need a miracle.
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I believe he also put that out yesterday afternoon, so it doesn't include OSUs loss last night, as the Bubble Watch I posted does
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I believe he also put that out yesterday afternoon, so it doesn't include OSUs loss last night, as the Bubble Watch I posted does
I wasn't sure because it says "updated February 14" but it wasn't clear to me whether that meant before or after Ohio State's loss to Illinois. Either way, I consider Ohio State to be a bubble team.
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Question for the group:
Assume that Illinois finishes as expected:
- Loses at Wisconsin on 2/18, 6-9/10-16
- Beats Penn State on 2/23, 7-9/11-16
- Loses at Purdue on 2/27, 7-10/11-17
- Beats Northwestern on 3/3, 8-10/12-17
- Beats Indiana on 3/7, 9-10/13-17
- Wins at Penn State on 3/10, 10-10/14-17
Would they have any chance at an at-large bid?
Best case scenario (based on projected BTT seeds):
- Beats #10 Rutgers on Thursday, 11-10/15-17
- Beats #2 Michigan State on Friday, 12-10/16-17
- Beats #3 Michigan on Saturday, 13-10/17-17
- Loses to #1 Purdue on Sunday, 13-11/17-18
Eighteen losses would seem to be an automatic disqualifier but they'd have wins over MSU2x, M, and UMD.
The other thing that occurred to me is this: Does the fact that we are playing 20 conference games change the way overall records are judged and by how much?
Assuming that you think the sub .500 overall record would be a deal-breaker, what if they won either at UW or at PU in the regular season then did all the rest of what is listed to that they finished 18-17 overall and 14-10 in B1G games?
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I wasn't sure because it says "updated February 14" but it wasn't clear to me whether that meant before or after Ohio State's loss to Illinois. Either way, I consider Ohio State to be a bubble team.
Might change the week of, but prior to that the update is always before the games of that date.
Illinois is all the way to #80 in the NET rankings. Move up 5 more slots and road games there become Tier 1. Which means MSU's loss there is as good a loss as your resume can have. Also means Michigan's win there is a Tier 1 win, just like winning at Duke.
In other words, the Tiers need to be narrowed
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I'm not wildly concerned about OSU's NCAA chances, in that I don't care that much if they make it. This is a very limited team that more or less has to scrap by to get wins. The NIT is a perfect place for such a team. It would be exciting to get a 10 seed in the tourney and hope for an upset bid, but I'm not going to lose sleep over it. Next year, they will hopefully avoid huge turnover, field a full team, and have actual point guards on the roster.
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Question for the group:
Assume that Illinois finishes as expected:
- Loses at Wisconsin on 2/18, 6-9/10-16
- Beats Penn State on 2/23, 7-9/11-16
- Loses at Purdue on 2/27, 7-10/11-17
- Beats Northwestern on 3/3, 8-10/12-17
- Beats Indiana on 3/7, 9-10/13-17
- Wins at Penn State on 3/10, 10-10/14-17
Would they have any chance at an at-large bid?
Best case scenario (based on projected BTT seeds):
- Beats #10 Rutgers on Thursday, 11-10/15-17
- Beats #2 Michigan State on Friday, 12-10/16-17
- Beats #3 Michigan on Saturday, 13-10/17-17
- Loses to #1 Purdue on Sunday, 13-11/17-18
Eighteen losses would seem to be an automatic disqualifier but they'd have wins over MSU2x, M, and UMD.
The other thing that occurred to me is this: Does the fact that we are playing 20 conference games change the way overall records are judged and by how much?
Assuming that you think the sub .500 overall record would be a deal-breaker, what if they won either at UW or at PU in the regular season then did all the rest of what is listed to that they finished 18-17 overall and 14-10 in B1G games?
Unfortunately, they just have too many losses to make up for. Those Georgetown and FAU losses (especially the FAU one because that was at home) are really crippling. They do not consider recent success (last 10 games, etc.) anymore, which is actually one of the metrics they got rid of that I thought was a mistake.
I think at this point, Illinois can look at next season as being a breakout season and I would definitely take a potential NIT berth if offered.
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I'm not wildly concerned about OSU's NCAA chances, in that I don't care that much if they make it. This is a very limited team that more or less has to scrap by to get wins. The NIT is a perfect place for such a team. It would be exciting to get a 10 seed in the tourney and hope for an upset bid, but I'm not going to lose sleep over it. Next year, they will hopefully avoid huge turnover, field a full team, and have actual point guards on the roster.
I'm in about the same place except that I would like to get an NCAA bid if for no other reason than simply to keep the (one year) streak going.
Looking forward I'm optimistic. The three seniors aren't contributing all that much and I don't think anyone is ready to leave early so they should bring back the vast majority of their contributors. I looked into it not long ago and Freshman and Sophomores were contributing about 60% of the minutes, about 64% of the points, and about 64% of the rebounds. I think that bodes well for Ohio State's 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 teams.
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General B1G Bubble Issue:
Lunardi currently has us getting nine teams in but I really don't think there is any chance of that. He had Ohio State as a #9 seed and not on his "bubble" but that was before the Illinois loss. Then he has Minnesota listed among the "last four byes" and Indiana as one of the "last four in".
I don't think there is any practical way for us to get nine teams in. The problem, as I see it, is that our bubble teams are going to roughly be those teams with the #7 through the #10 seeds in the BTT. Ie, right now we project the three bubble teams as:
- #8 Ohio State
- #9 Minnesota
- #12 Indiana
Even if Ohio State, Minnesota, and Indiana all do a bit better than the projections they would still all wind up in that #7 - #10 range. Then the problem is that on Thursday of the BTT, #7 plays #10 and #8 plays #9. I just can't see any likely way for the losers of those two games to make it.
Looking at the projected #8/9 game:
Right now we project that to be:
- #8 Ohio State 8-12/18-13 vs #9 Minnesota 7-13/17-14
If that happens, there is simply no way that the loser (either 8-13/18-14 Ohio State or 7-14/17-15 Minnesota) is getting in. Even if Ohio State did two games better than projected or Minnesota did three games better than projected the loser would still finish 10-11/20-12. That seems tenuous and anything worse seems like there would be almost no chance.
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Well, what if it goes differently?
By our projection, Illinois is pretty much stuck at the 7. But Minnesota and Rutgers are projected for identical records at the 9/10, and OSU is only a game ahead. Those could easily shuffle, with OSU at the 8, Rutgers at the 9, and Minnesota at the 10. Indiana and Nebraska are both projected for the same record, but one game improvement from Indiana would put them solidly into the 11.
OSU ends up at 8
Minnesota at 10 (flips with Rutgers)
Indiana at 11 (flips with Nebraska)
OSU is 37th in KenPom. Rutgers is 87th. I definitely see if OSU avoids a Thursday game against Minnesota, they could certainly beat Rutgers.
Minnesota is currently 50th in KenPom. If they slip to the 10, we project them playing the Illini, currently 64th in Kenpom, so you'd think they'd at least have a shot.
Conceivably, that would put Indiana (45 in KenPom) in the 11-14 game on Wednesday against 59 PSU, so they could possibly have a win before Thursday even came around. Then on Thursday they'd be up against the 6 seed, which obviously is a harder game, but right now we'd probably project that as Iowa, which IMHO is a lot easier than any of our top 5. The top 5 are all in the top 15 by KenPom, while Iowa is 27. Iowa's no slouch, but Indiana could gain 2 wins.
So you have OSU and Minnesota both winning Thursday games, and Indiana possibly picking up two wins.
Is that likely? Perhaps not... But I can certainly see it as being possible. One positive upset for Rutgers would move them into the 9 ahead of Minnesota if Minnesota plays to projection, and one positive upset for Indiana [who did knock off MSU] would put them into the 11 ahead of Nebraska. And we could avoid any logjams in that 7-10 range.
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Conceivably, that would put Indiana (45 in KenPom) in the 11-14 game on Wednesday against 59 PSU, so they could possibly have a win before Thursday even came around. Then on Thursday they'd be up against the 6 seed, which obviously is a harder game, but right now we'd probably project that as Iowa, which IMHO is a lot easier than any of our top 5. The top 5 are all in the top 15 by KenPom, while Iowa is 27. Iowa's no slouch, but Indiana could gain 2 wins.
So you have OSU and Minnesota both winning Thursday games, and Indiana possibly picking up two wins.
Is that likely? Perhaps not... But I can certainly see it as being possible. One positive upset for Rutgers would move them into the 9 ahead of Minnesota if Minnesota plays to projection, and one positive upset for Indiana [who did knock off MSU] would put them into the 11 ahead of Nebraska. And we could avoid any logjams in that 7-10 range.
I think this is about the only chance we have to get nine teams in. We would need two of our non-bubble teams to land in that 7-10 range and the two remaining bubble teams not to play each other.
Indiana:
We currently project them to finish 5-15/14-17. I don't think there would be any chance of them getting in with 18 losses but with their good wins I could see 16. Even to get there, they'd have to win two upsets down the stretch to finish 7-13/16-15. Based on our current projections that would put them in a three-way tie with Minnesota and Rutgers for 9/10/11. In that scenario I agree with you, they would be better off to lose the tie and get the extra game on Wednesday along with a more likely upset on Thursday. Then they'd play (probably) Penn State on Wednesday, Iowa on Thursday, and #3 on Friday (possibly Michigan). Assume Indiana wins all those and the semi-final on Saturday then loses the CG on Sunday. They would finish 11-14/20-16, would that do it?
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Wow. Swallowed whistles today.
Someone made their point last game.
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Michigan could punch every Maryland player in the face right now and now a whistle would sound.
Holy F***ery
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Michigan could punch every Maryland player in the face right now and now a whistle would sound.
Holy F***ery
For the half, Maryland drew seven fouls and was called for only four, one a non impactful push with a few seconds left and another the best moving screen I’ve seen in a while. Real rough whistle.
Granted, if a punch in the face woke up that transition D and helped with the turnovers, might do some good.
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For the half, Maryland drew seven fouls and was called for only four, one a non impactful push with a few seconds left and another the best moving screen I’ve seen in a while. Real rough whistle.
Granted, if a punch in the face woke up that transition D and helped with the turnovers, might do some good.
Those whistles came in the last 10 minutes.
Jalen was literally hit in the mouth off a miss, and not a look.
Maryland called for a walk with a Michigan player on his back.
Several players hacked on the way up to the basket, but not a whistle.
Cute to take the total at the end of the half and ignore what's actually going on in the game as a whole.
Maryland playing like crap, and taking dumb shots (Jalen, you're not a 3-point shooter), stupid turnovers, and TURDgeon 0-352 on the road vs ranked teams, will of course be the reasons they lose, but the refs let Michigan play "hack a Terp" early, allowing the game to get away quick.
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Cute to take the total at the end of the half and ignore what's actually going on in the game as a whole.
Maryland playing like crap, and taking dumb shots (Jalen, you're not a 3-point shooter), stupid turnovers, and TURDgeon 0-352 on the road vs ranked teams, will of course be the reasons they lose, but the refs let Michigan play "hack a Terp" early, allowing the game to get away quick.
Turned on the game around four minutes in , went looking, seems mostly fine.
At the time, Maryland was called for one or two.
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Huh, the look in on Beilein’s huddle speach was actually kinda informative. Weird.
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As much as I love this Xavier Simpson sky hook (just aesthetically), and then for its productivity, I really really can't believe it hasn't been scouted and eliminated yet. I get that the sky part means it's tough to defend, but he can only go to the right with it. Am I missing something? Is he just st that good of a distributor that adapting to take it away exposes something else for him to capitalize on, hence what we're seeing?
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In a sport with probably the most pronounced home/away Jekyll-Hyde effects, the two teams in the conference with seemingly the largest gap in play between home and away (per my eyeballs) produced a very predictable result.
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0-19 vs ranked teams on the road.
Second half was called decently though. Only problem I had was when Fernando did the underarm layup, Teske was up in the air and bumped him, but no call.
Minuscule compared to the first 10 minutes of the first half.
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Definitely a very ugly game today. Fortunately Maryland's turnovers were the difference.
Teske's bad offensive game (finally making his last 3 and a few dunks aside) was disappointing, but DeJulius' unexpected minutes due to Simpson's early fouls were okay, even though the offense was particularly bad late in the first half.
Brazdeikis needs to stop shooting unassisted threes, since he's a much better shooter when he's not trying to create his own shot..... Same goes for Poole for that matter.
It seems that Beilein has given up on Austin Davis, since Brandon Johns played more than usual and only at center, even though Maryland has such a big front court.
Fortunately, the next game at Minnesota isn't until Thursday.
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Minnesota murdering IU at home. Interesting.
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Archie might be in trouble. Not after this year, but he loses Langford and Morgan, and only has one impact freshman (who likely isn't as good as Langford) coming in. So it's tough to see them being anything but worse next year. So that's three years without a tourney, and it's not like the program was anywhere near the mess Sampson left Crean.
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PSU was looking feisty, then Purdue reasserted and now PSU isn’t making it easy.
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Pitino finally acknowledged how to make up for their PG deficiencies. Took advantage of the front court with high low sets and kick outs to Kalshauer, the one consistent shooter on the team.
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Holy Hawkeye!
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Holy Hawkeye!
Looking ahead maybe?
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the Luckeyes
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Holy Hawkeye!
Well, they won, but as I've said, playing at the RAC is no joke.
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Looking ahead maybe?
I don't think so. They've needed late game heroics to win the last three vs. against teams in the bottom half of the league. If they look competent against Maryland, I'll give them a pass, but I'm not expecting much.
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It's weird with MSU. The other top teams, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland and Wisconsin, I have substantially more confidence in them in home games. MSU, I'm not sure location matters. They seem to be easily the best road team of that top group, but with the worst home court advantage of them.
I'll take MSU today over the Buckeyes, but OSU to cover the 11.5
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Not exactly scintillating basketball early
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It appears all the missed bunnies in Madison is not a one game issue
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Some calls are hard. When a guy comes flying through and smashes the ball out of bounds, it shouldn't be
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It's weird with MSU. The other top teams, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland and Wisconsin, I have substantially more confidence in them in home games. MSU, I'm not sure location matters. They seem to be easily the best road team of that top group, but with the worst home court advantage of them.
I'll take MSU today over the Buckeyes, but OSU to cover the 11.5
I'll amend this, MSU sucks at home
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These teams playing very similar styles, made for a fun half after all the bricks to open the game
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As God is my witness, if MSU is gonna be selectively swooning, ima be real irked if it had one solid enough game in Madison.
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Wow... I always knew UC-Irvine was a different collegiate experience than a Big Ten university, but yeah, last night summed it up. My UCSB Gaucho alum wife and I went to the UCSB@UCI basketball game.
First, we planned to go hit the Anthill Pub & Grill on UCI's campus before the game. Figured it would be a fun time to go show up in UCSB gear and interact with the local fans, and they have a good beer selection. It (as far as I know) the only place within walking distance of the stadium to get a good beer. It was... Closed. Supposedly it's normally open until 1 AM on Saturday nights, but I guess since it was a holiday weekend they decided to just close up shop. Can you imagine an on-campus bar at any B1G school being closed an hour and a half before game time?
Second, the game was pushed to 9 PM because ESPN actually decided to televise it. So national TV, on a Saturday night, with the home team leading the Big West Conference, and with the school sponsoring a "white out" in the student section for the TV coverage. You'd think they could fill more than half of a 6,000 seat arena, wouldn't you? Nope... I think the non-student section was more full than the student section, and probably 25+% of the non-student section were Gaucho fans. It reminded me of what the stands looked like at Purdue football games 3 years ago, but that was because the team sucked donkey testes at the time. UCI is actually decent at basketball (by Big West standards, anyway).
But I guess I can't complain... Got to sit courtside behind the UCSB bench for $26/seat lol...
(https://scontent-sjc3-1.cdninstagram.com/vp/0fab3e26f6757128d3b7a291d14a10c6/5CF3F4A0/t51.2885-15/e35/50673641_2315503745127507_7916851819524988673_n.jpg?_nc_ht=scontent-sjc3-1.cdninstagram.com)
(https://scontent-sjc3-1.cdninstagram.com/vp/56d140408b03da856d70552d467cca09/5CE2CA58/t51.2885-15/e35/51144495_395229861305117_9170774798212045361_n.jpg?_nc_ht=scontent-sjc3-1.cdninstagram.com)
Would have been a lot more fun if UCSB had won, though...
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Welp, that's one to go on the refs blooper reel
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Some calls are hard. When a guy comes flying through and smashes the ball out of bounds, it shouldn't be
I guess that's your makeup? Yikes, two obvious blown OOB calls, one each way.
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Feels like OSU is up about 10, and yet somehow MSU is up 1
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If OSU loses, this feels like a blown one by Holtzman. Do what Beilein does and just bail out when the shot goes up. MSU is getting nearly nothing in the half court, but is on pace for about 30 fast break points. The occasional offensive rebound is not worth it in a low scoring game like this, where your half court defense has been working.
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CBS can feel free to abandon that cluster of a graphic.
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4 on Tillman, Ward injured. OSU gets 7 minutes of Wesson against a glorified walk on. This should end well.
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Worst thing for OSU was those fouls on MSU. Refs swallowing the whistle now to even things up. Bad luck.
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Co-worst thing would be going 8 minutes without a basket with neither MSU big in the game, and Winston sitting down for about 3 of those minutes. Wesson should have dominated the last two segments, and instead he hasn't made a shot
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Co-worst thing would be going 8 minutes without a basket with neither MSU big in the game, and Winston sitting down for about 3 of those minutes. Wesson should have dominated the last two segments, and instead he hasn't made a shot
Like i said..
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Well if this team needed to learn they could win without Ward, they did.
OSU I believe has now gone 10 minutes without a basket since MSU had to go deep into their bench due to injuries and foul trouble. I'd call the guys they called on role guys, but they dug deeper. Those were guys who typically only come in late in blowouts. Game ball to the bench today for sure
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That’s one way to cover the spread
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Fred Hoibergs walk on son made the same number of baskets in the last 12 minutes (1) than OSUs whole team. Usually a positive sign.
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Well... that was pathetic.
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I've been impressed with Holtmann's ability to limit runs for the other team. The problem is this team has no scorers, so entire halves become very slow motion runs for the other team, and he can't really do much about it.
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I checked the score at halftime and OSU had 31. Who could have guessed that was more than 2/3 of their eventual total?
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I checked the score at halftime and OSU had 31. Who could have guessed that was more than 2/3 of their eventual total?
^-^
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Sounds like a dislocated finger for Ward
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I checked the score at halftime and OSU had 31. Who could have guessed that was more than 2/3 of their eventual total?
With Ward out and Tillman picking up his 4th with 12 minutes to play? Not me. Fortunately for MSU, Wesson played like crap today. Considering the situation, tough to imagine him having a worse game.
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They've obviously checked out. Only made like four FGs in the second half.
Kinda sucks that they've already clinched NIT eligibility. Not that they'll get selected, after finishing exactly .500 with a nine game losing streak.
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I thought he showed it more against Wisconsin, but his words
https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1097245048234823681?s=19
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So, Illinois comes to Madison tomorrow. The Badgers haven't played in almost a week, losing at home to MSU, and Illinois is looking pretty good right now. They last played on Thursday, dealing OSU a home defeat.
I have no bloody idea what to expect tomorrow night.
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Rest is typically a good thing, but MSU lost at home to Indiana on extra rest, so who knows. Purdue had extra rest for both of their games against MSU, and looked good.
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So, Illinois comes to Madison tomorrow. The Badgers haven't played in almost a week, losing at home to MSU, and Illinois is looking pretty good right now. They last played on Thursday, dealing OSU a home defeat.
I have no bloody idea what to expect tomorrow night.
Illinois is a different kind of team. Their defense is helter skelter, and at least against OSU they didn't foul as much.
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What was billed as maybe a dislocated finger for Nick Ward is now known to be a hairline fracture in his hand. Ward is out for an unknown amount of time. MSU says it hopes he will return before the end of the season.
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Disastrous second half for the Buckeyes.
The tiers were spot on this weekend, all six games came out as expected.
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What was billed as maybe a dislocated finger for Nick Ward is now known to be a hairline fracture in his hand. Ward is out for an unknown amount of time. MSU says it hopes he will return before the end of the season.
Well congrats Purdue and Michigan on your co-Big Ten title.
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Disastrous second half for the Buckeyes.
The tiers were spot on this weekend, all six games came out as expected.
Well at least we have that. It's been a while.
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My brain might be more confident than it should be about tomorrow.
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So, a look at where UW sits.
Badgers are coming off a seven game run I figured would make or break the season. They took two must-win games (NU, at Ill), then three against not-top-3 teams (at Neb, Md, at Minn) then lost to Mich/MSU. Going into the last 6, I woulda been ecstatic with 4-2, but with how the games went and some MSU stutters, I was left hoping for a little more. Damn psychology.
Looking to the next six, UW should be favored or in tossups the rest of the way. Here’s the KenPom percentages for each, best to worst
Ill: 87
PSU: 85
Iowa: 74
At NW: 68
At IU: 62
At OSU: 56
KenPom projects 4-2. I’d be OK with that. 5-1 would be ideal and 6-0 ecstatic. 3-3 would be a little annoying, but 20 wins.
The issue is he questions. UW’s offense has lost its spirit, but that might be mainly on tow great defenses. Is ILL for real? PSU’s feistiness an issue? IU and OSU aren’t consistent. Iowa has an assassin and good offense. Not sure where to go with it.
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I think OSU is remarkably consistent. They will play strong defense, but their offense is stymied by turnovers and less than stellar shooters. They were actually must more aggressive against MSU going to the basket, which although they ran out of gas is hopefully more of a sign to come. They can get too passive in their halfcourt sets because no one is very confident in their offense.
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I think OSU is remarkably consistent. They will play strong defense, but their offense is stymied by turnovers and less than stellar shooters. They were actually must more aggressive against MSU going to the basket, which although they ran out of gas is hopefully more of a sign to come. They can get too passive in their halfcourt sets because no one is very confident in their offense.
A. I’m trying to decide how to feel about the game at season’s end, and The run of win at IU, lose at home to Illinois, hang with MSU until getting blown out by a lineup missing a bunch of the best players doesn’t help.
B. After looking at that defense, not the most excited for UW to visit.
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Update: Wisconsin's start is not promising
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Wisconsin just scored a basket with 7:45 left in the first half, and increased their score by 33%. :57:
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Wisconsin just scored a basket with 7:45 left in the first half, and increased their score by 33%. :57:
Half ended better than it had any right to!
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Apparently they were listening, because they scored 200% more points in the final 5 minutes.:96:
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Griller has always been a good luck charm for the Badgers. At least going back to 2000 or so, that is.
:72:
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offense seems to be the issue with this conference
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That game was bad and ugly, but Wisconsin won.
Also Happ had a bad game and sat most of the end. Kid is deep in his own head.
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That game was bad and ugly, but Wisconsin won.
Also Happ had a bad game and sat most of the end. Kid is deep in his own head.
I agree on Happ, but it was great to see him emotionally involved and celebrating with his teammates during time outs and after the game. So, he's not pouting. That's a good thing. He just needs to get out of the funk he's in. Making ONE free throw would be huge.
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offense seems to be the issue with this conference
I think great defense has a lot to do with this.
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Adjusted offense ranking on KenPom
1. Purdue (4)
2. MSU (6)
3. Iowa (7)
4. Maryland (21)
5. Michigan (35)
6. Wisconsin (41)
7. Minny (46)
8. Nebraska (47)
9. Indiana (75)
10. OSU (76)
11. Illinois (79)
12. PSU (115)
13. Rutgers (163)
14. NW (184)
Not shabby with 3 top 10 outfits and 8 top 50, though the bottom half is pretty rough.
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For the whole weekend (Sat-Mon) all 14 teams played and all seven games came out as projected so there are no changes to the most recent projection.
This week (Tues-Thurs) all teams except IL and UW play:
- Purdue is at Indiana in a rivalry game that is important to PU for their chance at a B1G Championship and potentially moving up to a #2 seed in the NCAA. The game is important to IU because they are getting to the point where any additional loss is problematic.
- MSU v RU is pretty uninteresting.
- Michigan at Minnesota is important to both. A win for Minnesota would dramatically improve their NCAA chances while a win for the Wolverines keeps them on the pace in the B1G Championship race.
- Maryland is at Iowa in a game that is important to both. If Maryland can win their slim B1G Championship hopes will remain viable and their chance at the BTT #4 seed (double bye) improves greatly. For Iowa the same is true.
- Ohio State hosts Northwestern in a game that is close to a must-win for the Buckeyes.
- Nebraska is at Penn State in a game the Lions can potentially win.
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They've obviously checked out. Only made like four FGs in the second half.
Kinda sucks that they've already clinched NIT eligibility. Not that they'll get selected, after finishing exactly .500 with a nine game losing streak.
I don't think they've checked out, I just think that they aren't very good. They rebound well and play pretty good defense but their offense is offensive. They don't have enough good ball-handlers or shooters and while Kaleb Wesson is pretty good, he isn't good enough to carry the offense by himself. That said, at any given time they can be a handful even for a very good team.
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- Purdue is at Indiana in a rivalry game that is important to PU for their chance at a B1G Championship and potentially moving up to a #2 seed in the NCAA. The game is important to IU because they are getting to the point where any additional loss is problematic.
I think the game is important to IU because the only way they'll even make the tournament is probably to win out or nearly win out. They have 4 ranked teams remaining on their schedule (3 home, 1 away), and then @IL and vsRU.
They're 13-12 overall right now, and 4-10 in the B1G. I don't think they make the tournament with anything less than a 5-1 finish (18-13, 9-11), and even then it would be very dicey. What they'd have, if they win at least 3 of those games against PU/@IA/WIS/MSU would be statement wins, and only with that do I think they'd overcome an 18-13 overall record.
But even 2-2 in their next 4 and then winning their final 2, to go 17-14 (8-12), IMHO has them missing the tournament unless they make real noise in the BTT.
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I think the game is important to IU because the only way they'll even make the tournament is probably to win out or nearly win out. They have 4 ranked teams remaining on their schedule (3 home, 1 away), and then @IL and vsRU.
They're 13-12 overall right now, and 4-10 in the B1G. I don't think they make the tournament with anything less than a 5-1 finish (18-13, 9-11), and even then it would be very dicey. What they'd have, if they win at least 3 of those games against PU/@IA/WIS/MSU would be statement wins, and only with that do I think they'd overcome an 18-13 overall record.
But even 2-2 in their next 4 and then winning their final 2, to go 17-14 (8-12), IMHO has them missing the tournament unless they make real noise in the BTT.
They are a weird case because most teams with their overall and conference record wouldn't even be anywhere close to the bubble but most teams with those records don't have wins over MSU (on the road no less), Marquette, and Louisville.
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They are a weird case because most teams with their overall and conference record wouldn't even be anywhere close to the bubble but most teams with those records don't have wins over MSU (on the road no less), Marquette, and Louisville.
True. But with their losses (both the quantity and quality), they have a lot of work to do. They have a schedule ahead of them that gives them opportunity, but they're on the razor's edge. No room for error.
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Of note, UW looks quite rough around the edges.
This has me feeling maybe more of a 3-3 finish, although each close win perhaps means getting closer to shaking out of it.
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Massey composite rankings (65 rankings), with last week in parenthesis (does not count last night)...
- Duke (1)
- Virginia (3)
- Gonzaga (2)
- Kentucky (5)
- Tennessee (4)
- MICHIGAN STATE (7)
- North Carolina (8)
- MICHIGAN (6)
- Kansas (11)
- Houston (12)
- Texas Tech (13)
- Nevada (10)
- PURDUE (9)
- LSU (17)
- Iowa State (19)
- Florida State (20)
- Louisville (15)
- Virginia Tech (18)
- Marquette (21)
- WISCONSIN (16)
- Villanova (14)
- MARYLAND (22)
- Buffalo (-)
- Auburn (23)
- Mississippi State (-)
- 26. Iowa (24)
- 37. Ohio State (32)
- 44. Nebraska (46)
- 45. Minnesota (47)
- 58. Indiana (48)
- 77. Illinois (84)
- 79. Penn State (92)
- 84. Northwestern (74)
- 97. Rutgers (105)
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- Maryland is at Iowa in a game that is important to both. If Maryland can win their slim B1G Championship hopes will remain viable and their chance at the BTT #4 seed (double bye) improves greatly. For Iowa the same is true.
I'm just glad they came out out of a tough stretch (four of five on the road!) with three wins. I was hoping for two...
@ Wisconsin
@ Nebraska
Purdue
@ Michigan
@ Iowa
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Maryland's win in Iowa City was an upset (our first in almost a week) which changes the overall projection in that the Terps, Badgers, and Wolverines are now all projected to finish in a three-way tie for third/fourth/fifth place.
The first tiebreaker is H2H2H but they all play each other twice and are all projected to go 2-2. The next tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the conference, then the next, etc:
- Against Purdue: Michigan wins because they only played the Boilermakers once and won. Maryland is second 1-1, Wisconsin is last, 0-1.
Thus, the current projected BTT seeds are:
- PU
- MSU
- M
- UMD
- UW
- IA
- IL
- tOSU
- MN
- RU
- UNL
- IU
- NU
- PSU
Things are generally very fluid because most teams are either tied for their seed or within +/1 one game of moving up or down but there are a two that are nearly locked up:
- Iowa as the #6 seed: The Hawkeyes are now projected to finish three games behind the 3/4/5 tie and two games ahead of #7 Illinois. Additionally, if they did end up tied with Illinois they would win that tie (only played once, in Iowa City, won) so the Hawkeyes now have at least a two game cushion each way.
- Illinois as the #7 seed: The Illini are now projected to finish two games behind #6 Iowa and two games ahead of #8 Ohio State. Additionally, as discussed above the Illini would lose a tie with Iowa so they are effectively three games behind. Furthermore, the Illini would win a tie with Ohio State so they are effectively projected to finish three games ahead of the Buckeyes.
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Ohio State is 6-8/16-9 and their remaining games, sorted as usual from most likely win to most likely loss are:
- vs Northwestern tonight
- @ Northwestern, 3/6
- vs Iowa, 2/26
- vs Wisconsin, 3/10
- @ Maryland, 2/23
- @ Purdue, 3/2
To have a decent shot without major heroics in Chicago I think that the Buckeyes need to finish at least 9-11/19-12. The most likely way for that to happen would be for the Buckeyes to sweep the Wildcats and split the home games against Iowa and Wisconsin. That isn't outside of the realm of possibility. I see this game as a must win, however, because if the Buckeyes were to lose tonight they would need to win at Northwestern and beat both Iowa and Wisconsin at home. While I think that each of those three of those things is reasonably likely, I think that all three of them are not likely at all especially if this team isn't good enough to beat Northwestern at home.
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Is the nail in the coffin for IU yet?
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Is the nail in the coffin for IU yet?
IMHO, not officially. As you know, I use a literal definition of "lock" and "need to win BTT" and I don't think IU has reached "needs to win BTT" territory yet but they are getting close.
IU is now 4-11/13-13. Their best-case-scenario without winning the BTT would be:
- Win their remaining five regular season games (@IA, vUW, vMSU, @IL, vRU). That would include three quality wins and get them to 9-11/18-13.
- With that record they would open BTT play on Thursday, so win their Thursday game, their Friday game, and their Saturday game in the BTT. That would probably include at least two quality wins and get them to 12-11/21-13.
- Lose the B1GCG. That probably would be a "good" loss and get them to 12-12/21-14. With their quality wins, they'd get in with that record.
That said, every additional loss from here on out is highly problematic because 11-13/20-15 is a much bigger reach and 10-14/19-16 is a bridge too far. Short of winning the BTT, I think that the Hoosiers have no more than one more game to give.
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B1G Bubble Watch:
After replying to @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's question I checked with the worldwide leader's bubble watch and they have dropped Indiana from the discussion. As I stated above, I don't think they are in "needs to win BTT" territory just yet, but they are awfully close and the difference is purely semantic unless the Hoosiers go on a major run.
I actually think that a team is a lock even though ESPN has not declared it yet (they are usually WAY ahead of me). They have Wisconsin as a lock and Maryland as "should be in" and I think they have that backwards.
Locks 4:
Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland: These schools each have at least 11 B1G wins and at least 19 overall wins so the absolute worst they could possibly finish would be 11-10 (Maryland) / 19-12 (Purdue). IMHO they are all locks.
Should be in 2:
- 10-5/18-8 Wisconsin: I think they are REALLY close to being a lock but not quite there yet because their worst-case-scenario is 10-11/18-14 and I think that might not get it done (especially considering that it would include losing their last six straight and eight of their last nine as well as some really bad losses (@NU, vPSU, BTT).
- 9-6/20-6 Iowa: The Hawkeyes should easily be in, I'm just not willing to call them a lock yet because their worst-case-scenario of 9-11/20-11 would be diecy. One or two more wins and they are a lock for sure.
Work to do 2:
- 7-8/17-9 Minnesota: The Gophers need to finish strong but it is certainly possible. They have two opportunities at home for quality wins, Michigan tomorrow night and Purdue on March 5. Additionally they have two road games that they should probably win (RU, NU). The problem is that I don't see any of those (maybe NU) as gimmies and the Gophers obviously need wins.
- 6-8/16-9 Ohio State: See above discussion of the Buckeyes.
Need a miraculous finish 5:
- 6-9/10-16 Illinois: The Illini have a nice conference record but their OOC losses are problematic both due to quality and quantity. They might already need to win the BTT but if they won out to the CG I think a final record of 14-10/18-17 with an incredible finish and some really good wins would at least generate discussion in the committee room.
- 4-11/13-13 Indiana: See above discussion of the Hoosiers.
- 5-10/12-13 Rutgers: A loss to two from "need to win BTT".
- 5-11/15-12 Nebraska: A loss or two from "need to win BTT".
- 3-11/12-13 Northwestern: A loss or two from "need to win BTT".
Need to win BTT 1:
- 3-12/10-16 Penn State: Short of winning the BTT, their best-case-scenario would be:
- Win their last five regular season games (@IL, vUMD, @UW, @RU, vIL). That would only include two quality wins and get them to 8-12/15-16.
- That record would get them a Thursday start in the BTT so win their Thursday, Friday, and Saturday games in the BTT. That would get them to 11-12/18-16 and probably include a couple more quality wins.
- Lose the B1GCG to finish 11-13/18-17. That wouldn't be enough.
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Work to do 2:
- 7-8/17-9 Minnesota: The Gophers need to finish strong but it is certainly possible. They have two opportunities at home for quality wins, Michigan tomorrow night and Purdue on March 5. Additionally they have two road games that they should probably win (RU, NU). The problem is that I don't see any of those (maybe NU) as gimmies and the Gophers obviously need wins.
I want to expand a bit on Minnesota because I think they are an interesting case. They are 7-8/17-9 but we project them to finish 0-5 which would obviously knock them out. What I find interesting is that it wouldn't be shocking for them to win each of four of their remaining games no for them to lose each of their remaining five. The only thing they could do that would really surprise me would be to beat Maryland in College Park in their last game on March 8. Other than that they have two home games against good teams (M, PU) and two road games against bad teams (RU, NU). I feel like all four of those could plausibly go either way.
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I think the Michigan fan base is not going to enjoy the end of the season. They definitely seem to expect, at worst, a tie with Purdue for the championship. But I favor the tier predictions and just don't see it.
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I think the Michigan fan base is not going to enjoy the end of the season. They definitely seem to expect, at worst, a tie with Purdue for the championship. But I favor the tier predictions and just don't see it.
I do, if that helps your state of mind...
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I think the Michigan fan base is not going to enjoy the end of the season. They definitely seem to expect, at worst, a tie with Purdue for the championship. But I favor the tier predictions and just don't see it.
I can't see MSU winning, even at home, against UM without their 2nd and 3rd best players. But I agree, I think they drop either this week in the Barn, or at Maryland. They just simply haven't looked good away from Crisler except for the Villanova game (over 3 months ago) and Indiana.
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I think the Michigan fan base is not going to enjoy the end of the season. They definitely seem to expect, at worst, a tie with Purdue for the championship. But I favor the tier predictions and just don't see it.
To be fair, though, it's not like Purdue looked good in their win last night over IU. Scoring 48 points, shooting 31.7% overall, only 20% from 3pt, and 44.4% from the foul line. Ugly game, only two games after their terrible shooting performance at Maryland (28.2% overall, 21.2% from 3pt, 64.3% from the foul line).
Purdue is in a bit of a funk. I think a lot of this is Tre Williams who has been down with strep throat and playing limited minutes, but Carsen has responded by going back to "hero ball" mode... He shot 4-24 against IU, fer chrissakes! Not clear how easily they can pull out of this and return to the strong form they were showing to start B1G play...
While the Penn State game at home was a lot better, this team has not been shooting well on the road of late. They still need to play @UNL, @MIN, and @NU... If these shooting performances continue, there's a lot of danger there.
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Is the nail in the coffin for IU yet?
That happened when Miles Brand fired Bobby Knight.
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MSU is just smoke and mirrors and Winston now. With Happ getting taken out late in close games, and Edwards reverting to hero ball, if Winston wills MSU to a solid finish, he may swoop in and win POTY.
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On pace for a 24-16 final in Columbus
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MSU is just smoke and mirrors and Winston now. With Happ getting taken out late in close games, and Edwards reverting to hero ball, if Winston wills MSU to a solid finish, he may swoop in and win POTY.
Swoop in? I feel like he has been the leader in the clubhouse since late Jan
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Swoop in? I feel like he has been the leader in the clubhouse since late Jan
All the national talk has been Happ/Edwards. I'll buy Edwards. Happ has the best PER in the conference, but I'm sorry, you can't be the POTY if you have to be removed late in clutch situations.
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All the national talk has been Happ/Edwards. I'll buy Edwards. Happ has the best PER in the conference, but I'm sorry, you can't be the POTY if you have to be removed late in clutch situations.
I feel like every game I watch Cash seems to be the guy that ends up at the top of the conversation. PER is also a lot nicer to big men. Both Ward and Tillman have higher PER then Cash. I lean towards Win Shares as my go to if Im picking one stat. Cash leads the BIG with 5.3 WS for the season.
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Sounds like Ahrens may be back out. Maybe I can play Sunday
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dz5h2CjXQAAWJhu.jpg)
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I mostly like Bilas, but he couldn't have spent more time pushing the Zion injury as an excuse tonight, as a fan would.
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Ohio State spending 32 minutes in a dogfight at home with the B1G's worst team was hardly inspiring but a win is a win I guess.
Both games were as projected so no changes there. I think Northwestern has officially entered "need to win BTT" territory with UNL/RU/IU not far behind.
Tonight's game is interesting. The Gophers need to win some games that they are not projected to win and at home against Michigan would be a REALLY good one to win.
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Indiana is at Iowa on Friday night in a game that is a must win for the Hoosiers. Indiana is a weird team. They have three really good wins:
- A 96-73 blowout over a Marquette team that is currently leading the BigEast.
- A 68-67 win over a quite good Louisville team.
- A Road win over a Michigan State team that is currently leading the B1G.
Now for the bad news. They already have 11 B1G losses including some really bad ones (vUNL, @NU, @RU). They already have 13 losses overall.
They started out 3-0 in the B1G but since then they are 1-11. The odd thing is that the one win was in East Lansing (see #3 above).
As a practical matter they are probably already finished but if they lose their next two (@Iowa Friday night, vsWisconsin on Tuesday) there will be no need for the qualifier. At that point their only path to the NCAA would be to win the BTT.
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I feel like every game I watch Cash seems to be the guy that ends up at the top of the conversation. PER is also a lot nicer to big men. Both Ward and Tillman have higher PER then Cash. I lean towards Win Shares as my go to if Im picking one stat. Cash leads the BIG with 5.3 WS for the season.
Yes, but I think I still hear more national guys talking PER. Granted, maybe because it's context for Zion's historic season.
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So, Jim Boeheim killed a guy last night?
https://sports.yahoo.com/report-syracuses-jim-boeheim-strikes-kills-pedestrian-highway-143543107.html
Not Brian Kelly, or seemingly even his fault, but still crazy
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Damn. Tragic.
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Ohio State spending 32 minutes in a dogfight at home with the B1G's worst team was hardly inspiring but a win is a win I guess.
NW may be the worst team, but by no means are they a bad team, and they've been in dog fights with better teams than OSU. Holtmann still playing around with the lineups. Musa Jallow started but only played five minutes, while Justin Ahrens played 7 minutes. Assuming all return, next years starting lineup, if I had to guess, would be
PG: CJ Walker
SG: Luther Muhammad
SG: Duane Washington
SF: Andre Wesson
C: Kaleb Wesson
The backups would be:
PG: DJ Carton
SG: Musa Jallow
SF: Justin Ahrens/ Alonzo Gaffney
PF: Kyle Young
PF: Jaedon LeDee/ EJ Liddell
That second unit would probably be better than our first unit this year. Who knows...there does seem to be a bit of a glut at forward. Kyle Young will play big minutes next year, wonder if Ledee or Ahrens feel squeezed out.
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That second unit would probably be better than our first unit this year. Who knows...there does seem to be a bit of a glut at forward. Kyle Young will play big minutes next year, wonder if Ledee or Ahrens feel squeezed out.
With most of the production and minutes returning next year and a solid recruiting class coming in I am really excited about the prospects for next year. I even considered starting a 2019-2020 thread for it but decided that should wait at least until after the BTT if not until the middle-to-end of the NCAA.
This year, however, this team remains a borderline tournament team that will probably either make or miss the tournament by a very narrow margin.
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Saw it pointed out that the Ward loss almost eliminates two guys. The quick doubles Ward struggled with last year, he has bastly improved on. The double frequently comes off Goins man, who has really done well to stretch the floor this year, and made guys pay for leaving him to double. Without Ward in yesterday, Going was being checked farther out from the hoop, and he really struggled with it. Granted if Tillman keeps going for 19 and 11, maybe that'll change how teams guard him.
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Saw it pointed out that the Ward loss almost eliminates two guys. The quick doubles Ward struggled with last year, he has bastly improved on. The double frequently comes off Goins man, who has really done well to stretch the floor this year, and made guys pay for leaving him to double. Without Ward in yesterday, Going was being checked farther out from the hoop, and he really struggled with it. Granted if Tillman keeps going for 19 and 11, maybe that'll change how teams guard him.
How is Tillman's passing out of the double? It usually takes [as you mention with Ward] bigs a little bit of time to learn how to pass out of doubles.
I agree, of course, that if he keeps going for 19 and 11, teams might start responding to that by doubling him. But it's not a foregone conclusion that this will mean Goins benefits, unless Tillman shows the ability to pass.
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What does everyone think of Minnesota's chances at home against Michigan tonight?
Minnesota is the B1G's most tenuous bubble team right now. In Lunardi's latest they are one of the "last four byes" as a #11 seed. As I see it, each of their next four games could go either way:
- vs Michigan, tonight
- at Rutgers, 2/24
- at Northwestern, 2/28
- vs Purdue, 3/5
If you flipped the H/A I would be reasonably confident that the Gophers would lose to Michigan and Purdue on the road and beat Rutgers and Northwestern at home. As it is, who knows. I am confident that Michigan and Purdue are better teams than Minnesota but the Gophers host both of those games so they have at least a chance. Similarly, I am confident that the Gophers are better than the Scarlet Knights and Wildcats but Minnesota is on the road for those two games so there is a decent chance of them losing.
After those four the Gophers finish up with a trip to College Park to play the Terps. Minnesota is currently 7-8/17-9 and I can't see them winning in College Park so I'm mentally viewing that as 7-9/17-10 with the four toss-ups to go.
As I see it, Minnesota simply cannot afford to lose all four. That would leave them entering the BTT at 7-13/17-14 and in big trouble. I think that 8-12/18-13 would be only somewhat better. You wouldn't feel very good about their chances unless they could split those four to enter the BTT a 9-11/19-12.
The Michigan game tonight isn't a "must win", but losing it would put tremendous pressure on the remaining three potentially winnable games.
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Decent. Michigan has looked nearly unbeatable at home, and not very good at all on the road. So any road game for them right now is losable. I certainly think Minnesota has a better chance of beating UM in the Barn tonight than MSU does in Crisler on Sunday.
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It's funny. I went to fully agree with ELA earlier, but my device had signed out again, and signing back in was too much effort so I didn't bother responding. And then this game happened. Not that Michigan was an underdog or "even" but I 50/50 foresaw a letdown.
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It's funny. I went to fully agree with ELA earlier, but my device had signed out again, and signing back in was too much effort so I didn't bother responding. And then this game happened. Not that Michigan was an underdog or "even" but I 50/50 foresaw a letdown.
I dunno why, I just figured that wouldn’t be that hard.
Was Matthews against UW in AA a full season abberation, or just a throwback to earlier production?
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I dunno why, I just figured that wouldn’t be that hard.
Was Matthews against UW in AA a full season abberation, or just a throwback to earlier production?
Matthews sort of had a renaissance beginning with that UW game. Excluding today, of course. I guess that it only lasting the UW, PSU and UMd games, means I should find a word other than "renaissance." But this stretch showed not only a massive bump in ORtng but also a return to his productivity (and style of productivity) from last year -- where he had a high rate of converting what most people think of as bad shots, such as long two-pointers, often as fade aways, somewhat often occuring late in the clock. Matthews had a terrible season-long drought until that UW game, but then he went 24/38 in three consecutive games, making us hopeful that the slump was over and he'd reverted to 2017-18. After tonight, that clearly remains to be seen. I'm still hopeful, just slightly less so.
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Poole finally had a good game, which was the difference, along with a great defensive effort. Hopefully that'll continue.....
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This weekend (Fri-Sun) all 14 teams play. There are some big games:
The biggest, of course, is MSU at Michigan. We project a Michigan win. Right now the two Michigan schools and Purdue are all tied in the loss column with three losses each. Michigan has the toughest remaining schedule so they really can't afford a loss. If the Spartans pull the upset, we would project them to tie PU for the league title.
Purdue is at Nebraska in a game the Boilermakers should win.
Wisconsin is at Northwestern in a game the Badgers should win. With a win, I would consider the Badgers a lock.
Maryland hosts Ohio State in a game the Terps should win. A win for Ohio State would REALLY help their status but I just can't see it. The Buckeyes haven't looked very good lately and they lost at home to Maryland by 14 so I just can't see them walking into Maryland's arena and winning.
Iowa hosts Indiana in a game the Hawkeyes should win. We are getting close to IU's last chance for an at-large bid.
Illinois hosts Penn State in a game the Illini should win.
Minnesota is at Rutgers in a game that the Gophers really need. I could see this one going either way and it is probably the most important game of the weekend in terms of NCAA status.
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I've said on here before, but never had anyone else say it as directly as I have, until now. This win saved Michigan's basketball program. Beilein was gone, 100%.
https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/sports/college/msu/mens-basketball/2019/02/22/michigan-state-basketball-how-2011-game-reshaped-rivalry/2941103002/
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I've said on here before, but never had anyone else say it as directly as I have, until now. This win saved Michigan's basketball program. Beilein was gone, 100%.
https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/sports/college/msu/mens-basketball/2019/02/22/michigan-state-basketball-how-2011-game-reshaped-rivalry/2941103002/
I would love to go back in time and tell Michigan fans his offense will regress, do you want to keep him?
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That one is near the top in terms of Michigan BB lore. Not because it was key to any big national accomplishment that year but because it's rare for any coach or team to ever experience such a clear watershed moment.
- Before it: 11-9 overall record, 1-6 in Big Ten play. John Beilein was 57-62 as Michigan's coach, 23-39(!!!!) in the conference. And M itself had only visited the tourney once since 1998.
- After it: Beilein is 213-83 overall, 100-50 in conference, 17-7 in the NCAA Tournament, has won two Big Ten titles, two Big Ten Tournament titles, reached the Sweet 16 four times, and the national championship game twice.
Also, I was impressed the author knew that game's popular moniker within the fan base: The "Aneurysm of Leadership" game. A super cool name IM(biased)O.
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Ahrens still not practicing, questionable for Sunday.
This one could (should?) get ugly
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I splurged last night and got tix just off to the side and behind the Michigan bench at the Barn. The involvement from Yaklich is fascinating to watch. One of the most vocal and active assistant coaches I have seen. And definitely most trusted too. Beilein is looking back constantly throughout the game for advice on substitutions and matchups. Yak is even more involved in the the offense than I thought. He determined the spots to get Castleton his minutes. He also gets really animated way ahead of a play, when he sees someone not following the scouting report. Kind of akin the O Coordinator in offense seeing the touchdown before it happens. He sees his defensive breakdows 3-4 seconds before the other team scores, and shows it.
If Michigan has 2 of Matthews, Poole, and Iggy clicking the offensive output is fine. Last night worked with a hot Poole and lukewarm Iggy and Matthews. When only 1 of the 3 can create, that is where they hit the droughts.
First Michigan sports experience for the kid and he loved it. Right next to the tunnel where the team came in and out.
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Lunardi's bracketology forecast has been updated. The big news in the B1G is that Minnesota has moved down to "last four in" and is now projected to play Alabama in Dayton for the #12 seed. That makes for a really tough week. To make the sweet sixteen they would have to:
- Beat a comparable Alabama team in Dayton on Tuesday or Wednesday, then
- Beat a significantly superior Nevada team in San Jose on Thursday or Friday, then
- Beat either Iowa State or Liberty on Saturday or Sunday.
Minnesota is the only B1G team listed on the bubble, there are eight teams included in the projection:
- #2 seeds Michigan and Michigan State (both in Des Moines)
- #3 seed Purdue in Hartford
- #4 seed Wisconsin in San Jose
- #5 seed Maryland in Jacksonville
- #7 seed Iowa in Jacksonville
- #9 seed Ohio State in Salt Lake City
- #12 (if they win the play-in) seed Minnesota in San Jose
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I splurged last night and got tix just off to the side and behind the Michigan bench at the Barn. The involvement from Yaklich is fascinating to watch. One of the most vocal and active assistant coaches I have seen. And definitely most trusted too. Beilein is looking back constantly throughout the game for advice on substitutions and matchups. Yak is even more involved in the the offense than I thought. He determined the spots to get Castleton his minutes. He also gets really animated way ahead of a play, when he sees someone not following the scouting report. Kind of akin the O Coordinator in offense seeing the touchdown before it happens. He sees his defensive breakdows 3-4 seconds before the other team scores, and shows it.
If Michigan has 2 of Matthews, Poole, and Iggy clicking the offensive output is fine. Last night worked with a hot Poole and lukewarm Iggy and Matthews. When only 1 of the 3 can create, that is where they hit the droughts.
First Michigan sports experience for the kid and he loved it. Right next to the tunnel where the team came in and out.
Kudos to you for doing that. These are the little things that stick forever with kids. I'll never forget (nor will he) the first time I took my oldest (now 30) to his first football game in Madison. I think he was 7 at the time.
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That Iowa game was just wild.
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If Iowa isn't #1 in KenPoms luck rating, back to the drawing board
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Parsing advantages in tomorrow's 3:45 game leads to a lot of interesting questions:
Winston versus Simpson?
Teske versus Tillman?
(and can Tillman stay productive if his usage soars without Ward)
MSU's transition v M's transition defense?
The refs: ticky-tacky or loose?
(especially in terms of reffing on verticality)
Obviously there are countless other questions, but these are the ones that probably go furthest to deciding the game.
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I think just how productive whoever out of Matthews/Poole McQuaid doesn't guard is, particularly with Ahrens now out too. That eliminates two of MSUs too 3 wings, and most teams don't have two as good as UM does. Whoever isn't guarded by McQuaid has no excuse not to have a monster game. They should see Gabe freaking Brown on them for large chunks of the game.
Although to be honest, it really doesn't matter. UM probably would have won this game with MSU at full strength. As is, I'm fully expecting a blowout.
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Given the venue and injury asymmetry, betting on Michigan is pragmatic, but no bet is ever a sure thing.
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UM 69-53
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Bucks with a new starting lineup, Woods and Ahrens in, Jackson and Jallow out. Jackson has been banged up.
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Watching Dickie V lose his mind over constant replays and I'm fully in support. It takes all the air out of the game
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Very surprising result in Champaign
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UM 69-53
MSU 53-52
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The most likely path to Michigan losing: because Cassius finally gets over the hump versus Xavier, Tillman never gets into foul trouble, and Teske does get into foul trouble.
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Watching Dickie V lose his mind over constant replays and I'm fully in support. It takes all the air out of the game
No question. All sports to be honest. I would across the board get rid of any automatic review, and go to 100% coach's challenge. Everyone gets 2, you get both right, you keep going until you get one wrong.
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I feel this is slowly being guided down the stretch.
Ah, never mind. If so, they would have given a foul there on the 3.
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I really wish the Buckeyes would have showed this effort against Illinois at home last week.
Giving the Terps a good game on the road is nice but at 00:00 it is still an "L". This effort against the Illini at home would have resulted in an easy win.
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So, of course, a f'ing Michigan vs. f'ing Ohio Sate f'ing hockey f'ing game f'ing preclude f'ing me from f'ing watching a UW f'ing hoops f'ing game.
F Michigan. F Ohio State. And, of course, F Tiger Woods. F Jim Delany too. F.
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So I go to BTN2Go, which I pay for, and I get a message: This video is currently not available.
F Michigan and F OSU.
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So I go to BTN2Go, which I pay for, and I get a message: This video is currently not available.
F Michigan and F OSU.
Yes!
I had to put up with Tenn vs LSU go into OT, and ESecPN put it on their "news" channel, only to have "technical difficulties"!
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So I go to BTN2Go, which I pay for, and I get a message: This video is currently not available.
F Michigan and F OSU.
Odd. I got it to work on FoxSportsGo.
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Also, I tend not to be one to talk too much about refs.
These ones have not made me happy at points.
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Hey, Wisconsin won. That 19th which should about make them a lock for the tournament. Four games left, all varying degrees of tricky. when should about make them a lock for the tournament. Four games left, all varying degrees of tricky.
It was a weird game. Happ Had some brutal stretches, but also some very nice ones. Trice hit shots for the first time in a while. Ford even hit a pair of threes, which has been overdue, and Iversen contributed. If the team plays the way it can, those will be ingredients for a blowout. Instead, the defense was a little dicey against what hasn’t been a great northwestern offense. In a game whereboth teams are good on defense and not so much offense, the scoring numbers were higher than I expected.
That was weird. Onto the next.
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For tomorrow:
(https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/files/image%20%2831%29.png)
(https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/files/2019-02/Capture_5.JPG)
The Matt McPoyle made me laugh.
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My main concern, as usual, but especially today, is if anyone outside the starters and Livers is forced to play 5+ minutes. Otherwise, presumably Michigan will go to go past their top 6 only when MSU does (ie. DDJ only plays against Loyer, Brooks against Brown, Johns against Kithier).
Michigan should have a decent advantage in not committing and forcing turnovers, rebounding should be fairly even, as should shooting after accounting for Ward's absence. Fouls and free throws are my main concern.
If Michigan plays its best (which they tend to do in big games, especially at home, to be sure), it could be another game like Villanova, North Carolina, and Purdue, but I certainly don't expect that.
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Today, three become two.
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UM oddly retrofitting the Fab Fives slogan and applying it to their 89 team.
https://www.amazon.com/1991-92-Michigan-Basketball-Shock-World/dp/B00190JZ6A
Using that on shirts they are giving everyone today to honor the 89 team. Unless it's like in high school, where they didn't let us do cross dressing day for Spirit Week, so we'd do like "Silly Hair Day" and everyone knew what it meant. Maybe it's a "we aren't recognizing the Fab Five team" day, wink, wink.
Also, apparently this is the 5th time in 9 road games that MSUs opponent used their shirt game on. I suppose that's the inverse of being everyone's Homecoming opponent.
I still say if it's even single digits, I'll be pleasantly surprised. Sticking with UM by 16
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16 just isn't realistic, imo. 5-8 is more likely. And, obviously, it wouldn't require an end of days for them to lose. Winston is a lot better than he was when Simpson got him last year.
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Ahrens is at least out for warmups. I can't believe we are at a point where I'm like "thank God we have a 70% Kyle Ahrens today"
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16 just isn't realistic, imo. 5-8 is more likely. And, obviously, it wouldn't require an end of days for them to lose. Winston is a lot better than he was when Simpson got him last year.
Disagree. And if it were flipped, and MSU was healthy, at home, with UM coming in without their best wing, best big, and best bench player, I'd feel the same about MSUs chances. Healthy MSU with Langford, Ward and Ahrens, in EL, UM coming in without like Matthews, Iggy and Livers. I'd expect blood.
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FTR, I would pick UM at home even if MSU was healthy. So it's just a difference in margin, not in outcome. It's the return game in a couple weeks where I think it flips the outcome.
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UM may have missed the mark on the slogan, but their uniforms are on point
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Teske having a field day with wings trying to guard him, box him out.
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MSU switching everything, and Teske keeps winding up with terrible mismatches.
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Neither defense looking particularly competent.
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MSU switching everything, and Teske keeps winding up with terrible mismatches.
That's defining the early going as much as anything.
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... well, that and MSU shooting 72%.
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Mel Person could use Teske with these hip checks.
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... well, that and MSU shooting 72%.
Smoothest MSU offense has looked in weeks. Getting a ton of really open looks.
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Meh, my mom throws better hip checks.
Fine print context: my mom used to put people in the hospital with hipchecks.
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Purdue fans here looking for a split in their two games. Given that there's every bit of likelihood that we might pick up another loss along the way, an extra loss for BOTH Mich and MSU helps us still have the best shot at a share of the title. We're hoping 16-4 is a share.
If either Mich or MSU sweep, it's more likely that the sweeping team ends up at 17-3, giving Purdue no margin.
MSU stealing one on the road, short-handed, is pretty much our nightmare scenario.
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Meh, my mom throws better hip checks.
Fine print context: my mom used to put people in the hospital with hipchecks.
Just like his grandma...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfcFrY4tY1Y
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Meh, my mom throws better hip checks.
Fine print context: my mom used to put people in the hospital with hipchecks.
Quantity, if not quality.
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MSU getting nothing from their 2s and 3s. Relying on Winston driving and Goins hitting 3s was not sustainable.
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I think it's a testament to the individual talent of Simpson and Matthews defensively, and the scheme as a whole, because Poole might be as bad a defender as there is in the Big Ten. They are the 2nd best defense in nation, in spite of 20% of their personnel being awful at it.
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Shoot, we might be able to get ELA to say MSU is good, maybe.
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maybe
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Shoot, we might be able to get ELA to say MSU is good, maybe.
Oh, they are definitely very good. But so is Michigan, and it's a road game, and MSU is down 2 of their 3 best players. If Duke rolled into Ann Arbor right now, I'd pick UM to win that. They are a really good team, and an elite team at home.
I don't know what to expect in the second half, because very little went as expected. UM, in particular Simpson, looked blah defensively, but he went out and was a major threat offensively. MSU is getting nothing from their guards and wings except Winston. So will they show up, and join Tillman/Goins, or will those guys revert to the mean, and still get nothing from McQuaid, Henry and Ahrens.
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I expected more defense in this game. It seems to be tightening up a little bit. Still, they could end up in the 70's.
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I assumed we'd see some good defense coming out, not so much. May just be a surprisingly high scoring afternoon. What was the O/U? Seems like they have to be on pace to blow well by that.
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I think that may be literally the first time in the last decade that MSU ever slapped the floor and Michigan didn't score.
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UM starting to figure out whichever wing McQuaid isn't on has a massive advantage.
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10 fouls in the first half, 9 before the first TV timeout of the 2nd? Who the hell wants this?
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Just like his grandma...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfcFrY4tY1Y
Ha, except seriously. She played professionally. US olympian level, two decades before the Olympics began having W ice hockey. She was an enforcer, literally put mean ladies in the hospital. It's this weird but hilarious point of pride I have in my family. For comparison, I had some talent too but didn't develop a better slap shot until I was like 17 and she was 41.
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MSU getting the same good looks, and missing everything now that isn't directly at the rim.
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Seems like Winston is missing every open look, and hitting the contested ones.
Lot of tired legs on both sides right now
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shoot more 3s
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Michigan seems to always find their FT shooting stroke against us
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Ward certainly missed on the glass.
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Michigan seems to always find their FT shooting stroke against us
Michigan is 3rd or 4th in the Big Ten in FTs since conference play began. A lot has been written lately, using Michigan as an example, of the national trend of OOC FT% not being predictive of in-conference FT%. It's weird but true and not just M.
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Some impressive second halves more MSU
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The most likely path to Michigan losing: because Cassius finally gets over the hump versus Xavier, Tillman never gets into foul trouble, and Teske does get into foul trouble.
The first one was certainly true. And not because Simpson played poorly. They were fun and Winston got his.
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Easily the singularly most surprising win since beating #1 Wisconsin like 12 years ago. Kenny Goins has to he the best walk on in program history.
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I was super impressed with McQuaid.
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Not the score I figured, but the outcome was correct. It's maddening that a wounded team can go into Madison and Ann Arbor and get a win, and crap the bed against two bad "I" schools. I just had a hunch Izzo would get it figured out, and he has.
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In terms of depth, I know this is stupid, but in terms of offensive style, I think MSU is better without Ward. Posting up is among the least efficient things an offense could do. The offense with Tillman out there doesn't have that Achilles. Granted, he has to stay fresh, healthy, and foul free for this to work.
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I was super impressed with McQuaid.
Yes, me too. That kid is good.
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In terms of depth, I know this is stupid, but in terms of offensive style, I think MSU is better without Ward. Posting up is among the least efficient things an offense could do. The offense with Tillman out there doesn't have that Achilles. Granted, he has to stay fresh, healthy, and foul free for this to work.
Most MSU fans are with you. I actually think missing Ward last year against UM would have helped, against Teske, we could have used him, Wolverines dominated the offensive boards.
Against Michigan it matters less, because UM bails out to force a half court game (which makes those rebounding numbers even more puzzling) and MSU does less running, but in general Ward has become the best big on the break Izzo has ever had. His ability to catch on the run, and go up, for his size, is staggering. MSUs half court offense was the best it's been against a good opponent since maybe at Iowa, but I don't like to rely on it. So rebounding and fast break is where he's missed
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Posting up is among the least efficient things an offense could do.
Depends who is posting up. Seems like Isaac Haas did alright... Surround a giant with 4 great shooters and the offense is pretty efficient.
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MSU and UM stayed #4 and #7 in KenPom. Overall defensive numbers fell for both teams
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0NyBz6WkAIiX20.jpg)
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Bye bye Lil Ricky. Gophers aren't even going to make the tourney at this point.
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The Gopher's tournament hopes may need to be placed on life support.
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The Gopher's tournament hopes may need to be placed on life support.
I'll stick to my hypothesis; any team Rutgers beats will not play in the NCAA tournament.
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I'll stick to my hypothesis; any team Rutgers beats will not play in the NCAA tournament.
Unless there is an OOC victim I haven't thought of the Buckeyes are the only serious test for this theory.
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Bye bye Lil Ricky. Gophers aren't even going to make the tourney at this point.
Excuse me. I was told the mean mean predictive and tier rankings had it out for the Gophers.
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Excuse me. I was told the mean mean predictive and tier rankings had it out for the Gophers.
I think at this point we had them overrated.
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Excuse me. I was told the mean mean predictive and tier rankings had it out for the Gophers.
LoL, what happened to @RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) ?
In his defense, they do have three more opportunities to exceed our expectations.
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Bye bye Lil Ricky. Gophers aren't even going to make the tourney at this point.
He was a gimmick hire in the first place.
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Looking at the schedules for both teams, it seems to me that UW has to win out to even tie for the 4th place spot. Given the strength of the conference, finishing even 5th would be a huge accomplishment over what they did last season, but still. I'd really like to see them get back in the 4th spot and have the double-bye in Chicago.
UW has 4 games left. Tomorrow at IU, Saturday home against PSU, March 7 home against Iowa and at OSU March 10. That is no picnic.
Maryland has 3 games left. Wednesday at PSU, Sunday home against Michigan and March 8 at home against Minnesota. They also have a game in hand in the win column.
I guess I'm not seeing it for UW right now. I believe Maryland currently has the tiebreaker too??
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I don't know what to say about Maryland. I know I rant and rave about how terrible they are, and with the youth, I expect losses, but somehow they win.
If you watch them, and you see all the turnovers, and STUPID turnovers at that, you just don't see them winning a game.
If they would play more disciplined on offense, I think I'd be more high on them. The defense has been pretty good, but the turnovers boil my blood.
This said, I'm expecting a loss at PSU.
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Been talking so much about OSU next year I've been looking at other teams, and really, the B1G as a whole is pretty young. UM could potentially return everyone and MSU could return a whole lot.
Some guys getting mentioned as draft prospects. From NBADraft.net
7. Bruno Fernando, Maryland
13. Romeo Langford, Indiana
23. Jalen Smith, Maryland
37. Ignas Brazdeikas, Michigan
40. Carsen Edwards, Purdue
47. Tyler Cook, Iowa
56. Charles Matthews, Michigan
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LoL, what happened to @RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) ?
In his defense, they do have three more opportunities to exceed our expectations.
Ha, I was wondering, too. Nothing wrong with being a passionate fan, though,which he was!
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Been talking so much about OSU next year I've been looking at other teams, and really, the B1G as a whole is pretty young. UM could potentially return everyone and MSU could return a whole lot.
Some guys getting mentioned as draft prospects. From NBADraft.net
7. Bruno Fernando, Maryland
13. Romeo Langford, Indiana
23. Jalen Smith, Maryland
37. Ignas Brazdeikas, Michigan
40. Carsen Edwards, Purdue
47. Tyler Cook, Iowa
56. Charles Matthews, Michigan
I don't think Jalen Smith goes this year, and if not, the Terrapins will be the better for it next year. But if he does, there are two really good bigs arriving next year to fill the void: the Mitchell Brothers...
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I don't think Jalen Smith goes this year, and if not, the Terrapins will be the better for it next year. But if he does, there are two really good bigs arriving next year to fill the void: the Mitchell Brothers...
Is there any chance Fernando stays next year? If he does, Maryland could be the conference favorite going into the season. The kid is a beast.
Am I in trouble for calling him a beast? Ruh roh. Sorry.
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Is there any chance Fernando stays next year? If he does, Maryland could be the conference favorite going into the season. The kid is a beast.
Am I in trouble for calling him a beast? Ruh roh. Sorry.
Ha ha, you are a terrible person!
No, there's no chance he stays, and I'm sure he will be on the receiving end of lots of good advice, just like Kevin Huerter was last year (I for one, didn't see that coming).
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LoL, what happened to @RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) ?
In his defense, they do have three more opportunities to exceed our expectations.
at the time he had a decent argument - not so today
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Been talking so much about OSU next year I've been looking at other teams, and really, the B1G as a whole is pretty young. UM could potentially return everyone and MSU could return a whole lot.
Some guys getting mentioned as draft prospects. From NBADraft.net
7. Bruno Fernando, Maryland
13. Romeo Langford, Indiana
23. Jalen Smith, Maryland
37. Ignas Brazdeikas, Michigan
40. Carsen Edwards, Purdue
47. Tyler Cook, Iowa
56. Charles Matthews, Michigan
I do wonder whether Ward is just done, knowing that his limitations are never changing, and he could have gone pro last year, two years ago, or this year, and he's simply not an NBA player, and just goes to Europe, or whether he gets convinced (probably by Winston) to come back with a healthy Langford and make a run at it next year.
With Ward back, MSU is looking very good, without him, they still should be good, but really, really lack size. Goins graduates, and they missed on both bigs they targeted (although they just put out a late offer to some kid from Texas, although I doubt he comes in and is a factor next year). Bingham needs to start realizing his potential after a full year in the weight room. The funny thing is MSU fans were pissed about taking Kithier's commitment so early, and having to pass on Trevion Williams, but now maybe the issue was picking Bingham over Williams to pair with him.
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I do wonder whether Ward is just done, knowing that his limitations are never changing, and he could have gone pro last year, two years ago, or this year, and he's simply not an NBA player, and just goes to Europe, or whether he gets convinced (probably by Winston) to come back with a healthy Langford and make a run at it next year.
With Ward back, MSU is looking very good, without him, they still should be good, but really, really lack size. Goins graduates, and they missed on both bigs they targeted (although they just put out a late offer to some kid from Texas, although I doubt he comes in and is a factor next year). Bingham needs to start realizing his potential after a full year in the weight room. The funny thing is MSU fans were pissed about taking Kithier's commitment so early, and having to pass on Trevion Williams, but now maybe the issue was picking Bingham over Williams to pair with him.
It's also what I worry about with Kaleb Wesson. Not really an NBA guy, but does he stick out college when he's already pretty much everything he will ever be?
Anyways, NBA mock drafts are all over the place. Not surprising, considering how hard it is to figure who will be in the draft. From CBS, which just does the first round, they have Langford sixth and Ayo Dosunmu from Illinois 29th.
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The kid is a beast.
Am I in trouble for calling him a beast? Ruh roh. Sorry.
Terrible.
Sad state of affairs today. Meant as a compliment, and the guy gets fried for it.
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Kind of funny getting to the Friday podcasts today that I didn't get to pre-weekend, them saying that it's a shame that we don't get to see the real MSU in this game, and there's no way they can generate any offense. That they (and I hadn't previously heard that) ran 23 straight pick and rolls at one point against Rutgers, because they simply have nobody other than Winston to run offense though, and against a better defense that just focuses on him, there's no way he's able to do anything offensively.
I didn't disagree with with that take, but it always is fun when these podcasts football/basketball, get to their predictions segments, and I don't get to them until Monday. They were also very bullish on Kansas' ability to keep it close in Lubbock.
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Kind of funny getting to the Friday podcasts today that I didn't get to pre-weekend, them saying that it's a shame that we don't get to see the real MSU in this game, and there's no way they can generate any offense. That they (and I hadn't previously heard that) ran 23 straight pick and rolls at one point against Rutgers, because they simply have nobody other than Winston to run offense though, and against a better defense that just focuses on him, there's no way he's able to do anything offensively.
I didn't disagree with with that take, but it always is fun when these podcasts football/basketball, get to their predictions segments, and I don't get to them until Monday. They were also very bullish on Kansas' ability to keep it close in Lubbock.
Often times, we talk about getting predictable/defensive focus/etc.
As a fan who recently saw my team face MSU, I would want zero part of 23 consecutive Winston pick and rolls. That’s a damn defensive nightmare.
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Been talking so much about OSU next year I've been looking at other teams, and really, the B1G as a whole is pretty young. UM could potentially return everyone and MSU could return a whole lot.
Some guys getting mentioned as draft prospects. From NBADraft.net
7. Bruno Fernando, Maryland
13. Romeo Langford, Indiana
23. Jalen Smith, Maryland
37. Ignas Brazdeikas, Michigan
40. Carsen Edwards, Purdue
47. Tyler Cook, Iowa
56. Charles Matthews, Michigan
To run it out to his 2020 mock, oddly not a ton of Big Ten NBA talent next year. Lots of 4 year program guys though.
16. Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois
23. Aaron Wiggins, Maryland
42. Lamar Stevens, Penn State
Also it seems like the decision to return basically never pans out. Fernando seems to be the exception. Matthews' stock has plummeted, Happ isn't even projected to get picked at all.
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To run it out to his 2020 mock, oddly not a ton of Big Ten NBA talent next year. Lots of 4 year program guys though.
16. Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois
23. Aaron Wiggins, Maryland
42. Lamar Stevens, Penn State
Also it seems like the decision to return basically never pans out. Fernando seems to be the exception. Matthews' stock has plummeted, Happ isn't even projected to get picked at all.
I'm no expert, but I feel like Lamar Stevens is NBA ready now.
In fact, I hope he gets drafted and signs between now and 6:30 p.m. on Wednesday. :)
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I don't have time for the complete update right now, but after MSU's upset win in Ann Arbor we now project the Wolverines NOT to get a double-bye.
- We project that MSU and PU will both win out and tie for the league Championship and get the #1 and #2 seeds at 17-3.
- We project that UW and UMD will finish 15-5 and tied for 3rd/4th.
- We project that M will finish 14-6 and in 5th place.
- We project that Iowa will finish 12-8 and in 6th place.
- We project that Illinois will finish 9-11 and in 7th place.
- We project that Ohio State will finish 8-12 and in 8th place.
- We project that MN and RU will finish 7-13 and tied for 9th/10th.
- We project that IU, NU, and UNL will finish 5-15 and tied for 11th/12th/13th.
- We project that PSU will finish 4-16 and in 14th place.
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I guess I'm not seeing it for UW right now. I believe Maryland currently has the tiebreaker too??
If this was meant as a question for me, you are correct. Wisconsin looks really bad in tiebreakers generally. Specifically with Maryland:
- First is H2H, they split.
- Second is record against PU and MSU (projected). UW went 0-2.
That said, it might not matter. We project two more losses for Michigan (@UMD, @MSU) and if that happens the Wolverines will finish 14-6 while we project UMD and UW to finish 15-5 and tied for 3rd/4th. Wisconsin would lose that tie and get the #4 seed but they would still be in the top-4 and get the double-bye.
If Michigan wins at Maryland, that works for the Badgers as well because it would move UM's projection up to 15-5 and UMD's down to 14-6 and in that case UW would be tied for 3rd/4th with Michigan instead of Maryland. I'm pretty sure they lose that tie too, but again, they would still be in the top-4.
All of the above, of course, assumes that Wisconsin will win out. We project that they will, but there are certainly some games that they could lose. They travel to Bloomington to play a desperate Hoosier squad tomorrow, then they host PSU and Iowa and they finish the season in Columbus against what very well could be a desperate squad of Buckeyes.
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This IU game scares me.
UW is winnning/competing, but not seeming to oaky so well. IU is terribly due. Bleh.
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This IU game scares me.
Weird season. I feel this way about every damn game they play.
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Terrible.
Sad state of affairs today. Meant as a compliment, and the guy gets fried for it.
I read some about that and it seemed very suspicious. As in it didn't seem like anyone was actually mad about it but he was suspended for the season. Plus he was suspended earlier in the year over something else. Seems like either the athletic department or someone using it as a cover for another issue.
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This IU game scares me.
UW is winnning/competing, but not seeming to oaky so well. IU is terribly due. Bleh.
Indiana is the reverse. They are competing, and then finding ways to lose.
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I can't find the thread we had for the FBI hoops stuff. But this is interesting. Maybe ELA or someone else can find the old thread? I forgot how to search here.
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-arizonas-sean-miller-lsus-will-wade-notified-will-subpoenaed-federal-hoops-corruption-trial-180149786.html
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Updated projections:
- 17-3/26-5 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker over PU based on record against the 15-5 teams)
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue
- 15-5/24-7 Maryland (wins tiebreaker over UW based on record against the 17-3 teams)
- 15-5/23-8 Wisconsin
- 14-6/25-6 Michigan
- 12-8/23-8 Iowa
- 9-11/13-18 Illinois
- 8-12/18-13 Ohio State
- 7-13/17-14 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker over RU based on record against the 15-5 teams)
- 7-13/14-16 Rutgers
- 5-15/15-16 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over IU and NU based on H2H2H, 2-0)
- 5-15/14-17 Indiana (loses H2H2H to UNL, beats NU based on record against the 17-3 teams)
- 5-15/14-17 Northwestern
- 4-16/11-20 Penn State
Thus, the BTT match-ups would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Nebraska vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Indiana vs #13 Northwestern, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):
- #5 Michigan vs IU/NU, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Iowa vs UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Illinois vs #10 Rutgers, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Ohio State vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan State vs tOSU/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Purdue vs IL/RU, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Maryland vs IA/UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Wisconsin vs M/IU/NU, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- MSU/tOSU/MN vs UW/M/IU/NU, 1pm on CBS
- PU/IL/RU vs UMD/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- MSU/tOSU/MN/UW/M/IU/NU vs PU/IL/RU/UMD/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS
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I cannot overstate how bad that Minnie loss is for UW. It's going to haunt them (and me). And Minnie fans love that.
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B1G Bubble Watch:
LOCKS:
IMHO, MSU, PU, M, UMD, and UW are all locks. They each have at least 11 conference wins and at least 19 overall wins. The worst-case-scenario in this group would be Wisconsin losing out to finish 11-10/19-13 and I believe that would be enough to get the Badgers in even with the five-game losing streak.
SHOULD BE IN:
IMHO, only Iowa is in this category. At 10-6/21-6 it would take a catastrophic finish (losing out) for them to even finish on the bubble and they still might make it. They can lock up a bid with a win in Columbus tomorrow night.
ON THE BUBBLE:
7-9/17-10 Ohio State:
The Buckeyes' last four games are vIA, @PU, @NU, and vUW. IMHO, 3-1 would put them in pretty good shape entering the BTT and 2-2 would leave them on the bubble. If they finish 1-3 or worse they'll need a serious run in Chicago.
7-10/17-11 Minnesota:
The Gophers are rapidly falling toward "Need a Miracle" territory. They have now lost two straight and six of their last seven and they are running out of time to turn it around. Their last three are @NU, vPU, and @UMD and they'll either need to win at least two of those or have a major run in Chicago.
NEED A MIRACLE:
In theory Rutgers, Nebraska, or Indiana could get an at-large bid by winning out to the B1GCG (or close to that) but they are all rapidly approaching "Need to win BTT" territory.
NEED TO WIN BTT:
IMHO, Illinois, Penn State, and Northwestern could only get in by winning the BTT.
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Props to Sparty for playing their best. They only committed 6 TOs and took good shots, giving Michigan its worst defensive showing of the year (Matthews' early foul and ankle injury didn't help of course).
Poole continues to be incredibly frustrating with bad shots and dumb plays on defense. I have no idea why Johns played when Castleton looked decent against Minnesota (even Davis would've been better at center). I have no idea why they didn't get the ball to Teske more, especially in the second half, since MSU switched everything putting him on guards half the time.
Nebraska is next before the tough final two games at Maryland and Sparty....
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More detail on the B1G's bubble teams:
In Lunardi's latest bracketology there are multiple teams with sub .500 conference records in the field. Within the B1G, Ohio State (currently 7-9) is in as a #10 seed and Minnesota (currently 7-10) is barely out as one of the "First Four Out". I agree generally so I don't think that our Bubble teams necessarily need to get to 10-10 or better to get in.
Beyond that is the issue of how well these teams will do in the BTT. At 9-11 either the Buckeyes or the Gophers would probably get in with an 0-1 record in the BTT (it would be close, might not happen). At 8-12 I think either would need to go at least 1-1.
Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are currently 7-9/17-10 with four games left. Those games, sorted from most likely win to most likely loss are:
- at Northwestern on 3/6
- vs Iowa tonight
- vs Wisconsin on 3/10
- at Purdue on 3/2
We project them to win only the Iowa game and finish 8-12/18-13. With that record they would most likely need several wins in Chicago.
As I see it, the Purdue game in West Lafayette is an almost certain loss. The other three could go either way. Iowa and Wisconsin are better teams but they come to Columbus. Ohio State is better than Northwestern but that game is in Evanston.
Tonight's game is enormously important for the Buckeyes because if they win it then they probably just need to split the UW/NU games but if the Buckeyes lose tonight then they need to win every winnable game from here on out.
Minnesota:
The Gophers are 7-10/17-11 with three games left. Those games, sorted from most likely win to most likely loss are:
- at Northwestern on Thursday
- vs Purdue on 3/5
- at Maryland on 3/8
IMHO, the Gophers have zero room for error. They have to win the first two because I don't think they have any serious chance of winning in College Park. We project them to lose all three and finish 7-13/17-14.
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This week:
As we close in on the end of the season we appear to be reverting to the old style of scheduling with weekday games on Tue/Wed/Thur only and weekend games.
At this point all 14 teams have played either 16 or 17 games. MSU and RU have each played 17 and they are off this week so after Thursday's games all 14 teams will have played either 17 or 18 games.
This week's six games:
- Purdue hosts Illinois in a game that the Boilermakers should win.
- Michigan hosts Nebraska in a game that the Wolverines should win.
- Wisconsin visits Indiana in a game that the Badgers should win.
- Maryland visits Penn State in a game that the Terps should win.
- Iowa visits Ohio State in a game that could go either way (we project an Ohio State win).
- Minnesota is at Northwestern in a game that could go either way (we project a Northwestern win)
IMHO, the last two games are, by far, the most interesting this week for two reasons:
- Because they involve the only two bubble teams in the B1G, and
- Because unlike the other four where I am pretty confident in our projection, I see these as games that could go either way:
Iowa at Ohio State:
The Worldwide leader, in their bubble watch, strongly suggested that an Iowa win would move the Hawkeyes up to "Lock" status. I agree. On the other side, Ohio State really needs a win here. The Bubbling Buckeyes are dangerously close to the cut line and a win here would help a LOT.
Minnesota at Northwestern:
The Worldwide leader recently dropped Minnesota from barely in to barely out and the Gophers are desperate for wins. It is getting very difficult to see a path to an at-large bid for the Gophers and with a loss in Evanston it would be nearly impossible.
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I think it's a testament to the individual talent of Simpson and Matthews defensively, and the scheme as a whole, because Poole might be as bad a defender as there is in the Big Ten. They are the 2nd best defense in nation, in spite of 20% of their personnel being awful at it.
UM Hoops writer also not a fan. Yaklich is largely able to hide him, but not always. I also find it funny, someone else pointed out how animated he is on the sideline as soon as the breakdown occurs, and some of that is pointed out here
https://twitter.com/eric_shap/status/1100390026125336576
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Massey composite rankings (63 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Duke (1)
- Virginia (2)
- Gonzaga (3)
- North Carolina (7)
- Kentucky (4)
- MICHIGAN STATE (6)
- Tennessee (5)
- MICHIGAN (8)
- Texas Tech (11)
- Houston (10)
- PURDUE (13)
- Kansas (9)
- Marquette (19)
- LSU (14)
- Nevada (12)
- Virginia Tech (18)
- WISCONSIN (20)
- Florida State (16)
- MARYLAND (22)
- Buffalo (23)
- Iowa State (15)
- Kansas State (-)
- Louisville (17)
- Auburn (24)
- Cincinnati (-)
- 27. Iowa (26)
- 40. Ohio State (37)
- 46. Minnesota (45)
- 49. Nebraska (44)
- 60. Indiana (58)
- 63. Penn State (79)
- 86. Illinois (77)
- 88. Rutgers (97)
- 90. Northwestern (84)
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OSU could really use a win. Sounds like CJ Jackson will play tonight
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Because it's Iowa, this game ain't over
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I can't figure Iowa out. Weird team.
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Huge win for the Buckeyes, led by an eye popping 29 points from Justin Ahrens in just his second start
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0YHg_iXgAUXbrn.jpg)
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Huge win for the Buckeyes who were sliding dangerously close to the cut line.
FWIW, Iowa is now mathematically eliminated from contention for the league title.
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Interesting game in Bloomington right now. UW is in a dogfight with the home team.
Neither team has names on the back of their jerseys. I like this.
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https://twitter.com/KyleRowland/status/1100575690548830208?s=19
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He's a nut job. If he could just channel his coaching, he'd be good. But, he can't. Kids feed off their coach.
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Indiana has the most dangerous ceiling of any 4-12 Big Ten team ever
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Indiana has the most dangerous ceiling of any 4-12 Big Ten team ever
Badgers are in the danger zone. They need to set the tone and they aren't.
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Not seeing it tonight. I think this one is over. IU plays the roach again.
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Indiana has the most dangerous ceiling of any 4-12 Big Ten team ever
And yet, this is why they are 4-12
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OT in Bloomington.
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Man, all IU’s bad luck got barfed back up in good luck.
UW blew that. Weird flagrant, off calls, FTS, utter insanity down the stretch. I got nothing.
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More OT
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Wisconsin has nobody to blame but themselves and their horrid free throw shooting.
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Wisconsin has nobody to blame but themselves and their horrid free throw shooting.
Correct. IU had the officials too though. That was a bad game for the zebras.
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Indiana's upset win over Wisconsin changes the projections in that the Badgers are now projected as the #5 seed in the BTT:
- We project PU and MSU to both win out and finish tied for #1/#2 at 17-3. MSU wins that tie.
- We project UMD to finish alone in the #3 slot at 15-5.
- We project M and UW to finish 14-6 and tied for #4/#5. M wins that tie (record against MSU and PU).
- We project Iowa to finish alone in the #6 slot (two games behind #5 and three games ahead of #7).
- We project IL to finish alone in the #7 slot at 9-11.
- We project tOSU to finish alone in the #8 slot at 8-12.
- We project MN and RU to finish tied for #8/#10 at 7-13. MN wins that tie.
- We project IU to finish alone in the #11 slot at 6-14.
- We project UNL and NU to finish tied for #12/#13 at 5-15. UNL wins that tie but it only determines jersey color in the #12/#13 game.
- We project PSU to finish alone in last place at 4-16.
FWIW:
I think Indiana is still technically on the bubble. Their best-case-scenario (short of winning the BTT) would be to win their last three scheduled games then go 3-1 in the BTT with a loss in the CG. That would put them at 11-13/20-15 and with their quality wins (Marquette, Louisville, MSU, UW, MSU again, BTT) that would get them in. As a practical matter I don't think they can pull all of that off but as a mathematical issue, I think they are still in the race.
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Wisconsin has nobody to blame but themselves and their horrid free throw shooting.
Same problem that hit MSU when Indiana beat us. Hoosiers certainly appear to have the best clutch FT defense in the conference.
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Mock NCAA and NIT bracket, based on the data through Sunday, using the Massey Composite for seeding (with moves for conference rematches and geography), but KenPom for conference tourney upsets
EAST |
#1 Duke vs. #16 Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson |
#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 VCU |
#5 WISCONSIN vs. #12 Lipscomb |
#4 Nevada vs. #13 Yale |
#3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Old Dominion |
#6 Auburn vs. #11 Clemson |
#7 Cincinnati vs. #10 Baylor |
#2 MICHIGAN vs. #15 Radford |
. |
MIDWEST |
#1 North Carolina vs. #16 Colgate |
#8 Washington vs. #9 TCU |
#5 Buffalo vs. #12 Saint Mary's/NEBRASKA |
#4 Marquette vs. #13 Murray State |
#3 Kansas vs. #14 South Dakota State |
#6 Louisville vs. #11 St. John's |
#7 IOWA vs. #10 NC State |
#2 Kentucky vs. #15 Loyola(Ill) |
. |
SOUTH |
#1 Virginia vs. #16 Rider/Norfolk State |
#8 Wofford vs. #9 Texas |
#5 Florida State vs. #12 MINNESOTA/Arizona State |
#4 LSU vs. #13 Vermont |
#3 PURDUE vs. #14 Georgia Southern |
#6 Kansas State vs. #11 Ole Miss |
#7 Villanova vs. #10 OHIO STATE |
#2 Tennessee vs. #15 Northern Kentucky |
. |
WEST |
#1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Abilene Christian |
#8 Syracuse vs. #9 Florida |
#5 MARYLAND vs. #12 New Mexico State |
#4 Virginia Tech vs. #13 Hofstra |
#3 Houston vs. #14 UC Irvine |
#6 Iowa State vs. #11 Utah State |
#7 Mississippi State vs. #10 Central Florida |
#2 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #15 Montana |
*=current standings leader, projected by KenPom to lose in their conference tourney, and thus get an NIT auto-bid. Teams must be at least .500
#1 Belmont* vs. #8 Prairie View A&M |
#4 Oregon State vs. #5 Arkansas |
#3 Furman vs. #6 BYU |
#2 Seton Hall vs. #7 Texas State* |
. |
#1 Temple vs. #8 Missouri State |
#4 East Tennessee State vs. #5 Xavier |
#3 Davidson vs. #6 Oregon |
#2 Creighton vs. #7 Sam Houston State* |
. |
#1 Butler vs. #8 St. Francis(PA) |
#4 Fresno State vs. #5 UNC Greensboro |
#3 Dayton vs. #6 South Carolina |
#2 Toledo vs. #7 Wright State* |
. |
#1 Alabama vs. #8 Iona |
#4 Georgetown vs. #5 Arizona |
#3 Memphis vs. #6 Providence |
#2 San Francisco vs. #7 Bucknell* |
That is not an NIT that ESPN is hoping for, would get even more dismal numbers than normal. What, 6 Power 5 teams? A bunch of Big East teams I guess.
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https://twitter.com/KyleRowland/status/1100575690548830208?s=19
One of these times, we're going to watch him stroke out on the sideline. He needs to disappear for a while and deal with his anger problems.
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That's defining the early going as much as anything.
Listened to a breakdown that this was very intentional, and the failure to switch back wasn't a failure. In the whole punch-counterpunch, as MSU's offense became "outdated," Izzo countered against an offense that doesn't teach post ups, doesn't run post ups, and said, "here is your mismatch, all you have to do is post up and have solid entry passes. Basketball 101 from a decade or two decades ago. And Michigan couldn't do it, because it's something they never do. MSU's defense looked so good, because what they gave Michigan, was something Michigan's offense wasn't capable of doing. Now it's Beilein's turn to counterpunch, and he's too good an offensive coach not to figure something out.
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Correct. IU had the officials too though. That was a bad game for the zebras.
The quality of the refs in the B1G is embarrassing. I can't remember a time when the whole league has been plagued by such crappy officiating.
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Same problem that hit MSU when Indiana beat us. Hoosiers certainly appear to have the best clutch FT defense in the conference.
That was a joke, but apparently Indiana does have the "best" FT defense in the nation, at 62.4%
Wisconsin and Michigan are tied for 2nd in the Big Ten, #16 nationally, at 66.0%. So yesterday was ripe for some poor FT shooting.
Out of curiosity, North Dakota is worst at 78.5%. How is that even possible? Only three teams shoot better than that, but at least there, it's the same guys, so maybe you just have a good collection of FT shooters. How do you wind up having your opponents, across a 30 game (maybe 15ish team) sample size, shoot that well against you.
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The quality of the refs in the B1G is embarrassing. I can't remember a time when the whole league has been plagued by such crappy officiating.
It's not football, no conference affiliation for refs.
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Early bracket tip, I heard that #18 in KenPom defensive efficiency is the lowest for any national champ in the KenPom era (since 2002)
So what top teams should you be looking to avoid? The following current Bracketology top 4 seeds are outside the top 18: Gonzaga (#24), Purdue (#38), Tennessee (#41), Marquette (#43) and LSU (#56)
And what lower seeded teams may have what it takes to make a run? 10-seed VCU (#4), 6-seed Kansas State (#7), 9-seed Florida (#10), 7-seed Washington (#12), 12-seed Clemson (#15) and 10-seed Ohio State (#17)
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That was a joke, but apparently Indiana does have the "best" FT defense in the nation, at 62.4%
Wisconsin and Michigan are tied for 2nd in the Big Ten, #16 nationally, at 66.0%. So yesterday was ripe for some poor FT shooting.
Out of curiosity, North Dakota is worst at 78.5%. How is that even possible? Only three teams shoot better than that, but at least there, it's the same guys, so maybe you just have a good collection of FT shooters. How do you wind up having your opponents, across a 30 game (maybe 15ish team) sample size, shoot that well against you.
I noticed IU was no. 2 on that front before yesterday’s game.
I am displeased my Alma mater helped that.
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One of these times, we're going to watch him stroke out on the sideline. He needs to disappear for a while and deal with his anger problems.
Suspended 2 games by Iowa
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It’s rare to see guys move up these days. The NBA draft is picking so much on potential that if you stay for another year or two and fall off that perceived progression forecast you will slide or stay flat. For any of the three mentioned if a 1st round grade is likely its hard to see them improving on that in any significant way with another year.
If you want to do it because you like college and want to take another run at a conference or tournament championship that is fine, but the eyes better be open to lost earning potential.
Well the NBA brass is toying with the idea of bringing back the "none and done" rule. I never really liked the prospect of high school kids going straight to the pros, but it's better than the one-and-done mess we have today.
Call me selfish and unrealistic, but I'd love to have college degrees become a requirement for going pro in football and basketball. I would say the same for baseball, but it has by far the best minor league system in sports, and most college baseball players do it for the love of the game anyway (I'm pretty sure the percentage of NCAA baseball players with realistic pro expectations is even smaller than football or basketball). And hockey is like 80% Canadian, so any collegiate requirements would be a useless gesture.
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In theory we should consider moving Wisconsin down to tier-3.
The Badgers have been involved in five upsets. One was the win at Iowa way back on November 30. The other four were losses:
- vs MN on 1/3 (UW also won at MN so whatever)
- vs Purdue on 1/11
- vs MSU on 2/12
- @ IU on 2/26
The difference between tier-2 (where they are now) and tier-3 is the projected result in home games against tier-1 teams and road games against tier-4 teams. Those are:
- vs PU, L
- vs MSU, L
- vs M, W
- @ IL, W
- @ tOSU, 3/10
- @ MN, W
So the Badgers are 3-2 in those games but they also have one additional "upset" win (@IA) and two additional "upset" losses (vMN, @IU).
In tier-2 the Badgers are -3 with the one upset win and the four upset losses. In tier-3 they would be +2 with four upset wins (@IA, vM, @IL, @MN) and two upset losses (vsMN, @IU).
If Wisconsin suffers another upset they will definitely need to be moved down but if that happens at Ohio State on 3/10 it will be a moot point because the season will be over.
Other teams outside of +/-1:
- Tier-1 Michigan is -3
- Tier-4 Ohio State is +2
Michigan, it seems to me, is mostly just a product of being in a high tier and consequently having a lot of opportunities for negative variance.
Ohio State and Illinois split their series with Illinois winning in Columbus and Ohio State beating Illinois in the United Center. Both of those are "upsets" no matter what. Then the Buckeyes have two wins that are positive upsets for them as a tier-4 team but would not be upsets if we moved them to tier-3 (@IU, @UNL) and two games that are not upsets now but would be negative upsets if we moved them up (vUMD, @RU).
Ohio State remains as they have been for over a month, in something of a no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4. They are +2 in tier-4 but if we moved them up to tier-3 they would be -2 so they'll stay where they are for now but if they win at Northwestern on 3/6 they'll need to be moved up.
Explanation for Ohio State: The difference between tier-3 and tier-4 is the expected result in home games against tier-2 teams and road games against tier-5 teams:
- v UW, 3/10
- v UMD, L
- @ RU, L
- @ IU, W
- @ NU, 3/6
- @ UNL, W
As you can see, the Buckeyes are 2-2 with two more to play while the two Illinois games are both upsets (one each way) no matter what.
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I'd support dropping UW a tier.
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I'd support dropping UW a tier.
As per usual, it is always the fans of the school in question that support the lower tier. I should check myself vis-a-vis Ohio State. I need input from non-Ohio State fans: Should Ohio State stay in tier-4 at +2 or move to tier-3 where they would be -2?
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As per usual, it is always the fans of the school in question that support the lower tier. I should check myself vis-a-vis Ohio State. I need input from non-Ohio State fans: Should Ohio State stay in tier-4 at +2 or move to tier-3 where they would be -2?
I'd leave OSU for now, to be honest.
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(https://i.imgur.com/QtkftTP.jpg)
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I'd leave OSU for now, to be honest.
Ok, thanks for the input. That is what I was thinking but I wanted at least one non-tOSU fan opinion.
It makes a difference because two of tOSU's three remaining games would be wins in tier-3 and losses in tier-4 (@NU, vUW).
Moving Ohio State up would cause the following changes:
- Wisconsin's projected record would move to 13-7 from 14-6. This doesn't change seeding because the Badgers are projected to tie with Michigan at 14-6 and they lose that tie.
- Ohio State's projected record would improve to 10-10 from 8-12. This moves the Buckeyes up to the #7 seed and the Illini down to the #8 seed. This would actually substantially help the conference because it would create the possibility that both bubble teams (tOSU and MN) could win their first BTT game. As it is now, tOSU and MN are projected to finish 8th/9th and play each other on Thursday in the BTT.
- Northwestern's projected record would move to 4-16 from 5-15. This would move the Wildcats from a tie (that they lose) with Nebraska to a tie (that they lose) with Penn State so it would move PSU up to the #13 seed and NU down to the #14 seed.
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Various mathematical/practical possibilities:
Only MSU, PU, M, UMD, and UW are mathematically in the conference championship hunt. As a practical matter it is just Purdue and the two Michigan schools and even there Michigan's odds are pretty long because they are a game down AND have the toughest remaining schedule.
Michigan State has clinched a double-bye and will start BTT play on Friday. The worst they could do is 14-6 and tied with Wisconsin for 4th/5th and they would win that tie.
Only PU, M, UMD, UW, and Iowa are alive for the other three double-byes. Ohio State is in 7th but can do no better than 11-9 which would be no better than tied with Wisconsin for 5th/6th (tOSU would win that tie).
Ohio State has clinched that they will be one of the six B1G teams to start BTT play on Thursday. They cannot get a double-bye to start on Friday (see above). They also will not have a Wednesday game because the worst they could do would be 8-12 which would be no worse than a four-way tie for 10th/11th/12th/13th with UNL, IU, and PSU. Ohio State would win that tie because they only played each of those schools once and won all three games (@UNL, @IU, vPSU). Thus, Ohio State has clinched somewhere between the #5 and the #10 seed and as a practical matter they will be 7th, 8th, or 9th barring some extremely unlikely set of upsets.
After that it gets pretty murky because the bottom half of the conference is pretty bunched up. Current #8 Minnesota could theoretically do as poorly as 7-13 and tied for last while current #14 Northwestern could theoretically do as well as 7-13 and tied for 8th.
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Looking like a blowout early, as I expected.
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So is PSU suddenly good? Refs screwed them out of a win over Purdue, then they beat UM, beat Illinois, now crushing Maryland.
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Whistles quiet again on our offensive trips.
Fran is on to something, but this is just a page in Maryland's book. Read it every year.
That gym is a House of Horrors for Maryland.
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So is PSU suddenly good? Refs screwed them out of a win over Purdue, then they beat UM, beat Illinois, now crushing Maryland.
This is kinda a weird case, and I can't tell if it's confirmation bias or something else.
When PSU was a middling 7-6, it was 48 in KenPom, so that's not bad. Then it dropped eight conference games in a row, and after all that was still only at 71. That, to a degree, would suggest being better than a 0-10 conference record at the time.
But does that always equate to snapping back and pulling off upsets or blowouts? I don't know. Sometimes is seems to (see Wisconsin, 2012 big 12 title game). Anyway, I'm going to go back to worrying about the end of UW's schedule. Man I wanted that one last night.
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Listened to a breakdown that this was very intentional, and the failure to switch back wasn't a failure. In the whole punch-counterpunch, as MSU's offense became "outdated," Izzo countered against an offense that doesn't teach post ups, doesn't run post ups, and said, "here is your mismatch, all you have to do is post up and have solid entry passes. Basketball 101 from a decade or two decades ago. And Michigan couldn't do it, because it's something they never do. MSU's defense looked so good, because what they gave Michigan, was something Michigan's offense wasn't capable of doing. Now it's Beilein's turn to counterpunch, and he's too good an offensive coach not to figure something out.
https://twitter.com/AndrewKahn/status/1100942617293082625?s=19
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Man I wanted that one last night.
If my wife was watching, instead of being out of town on business, UW would have won. The way she implores the team through the TV screen would have done it. So, let's blame her. I'll let her know tomorrow night, when she gets home, that she cost the Badgers the 4th place finish we have come to know and love.
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So is PSU suddenly good? Refs screwed them out of a win over Purdue, then they beat UM, beat Illinois, now crushing Maryland.
Ok. Let's make something perfectly clear. The refs did not screw PSU out of a win against Purdue. Penn State shot FORTY ONE FREE THROWS in that game (with Purdue only getting 21, 6 of which were from intentional PSU fouls). Penn State averages about 18 FT's a game.
People always get so hung up about end of game fouls, but if the refs had called an even halfway unbiased game for the first 39 minutes and 57 seconds of that game, Purdue wins by 10 in regulation.
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True. Job #1 for refs is ensuring equal FTs for each team.
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No, the job of the refs is to call fouls consistently against both teams and the same way throughout the whole game.
If you want to "let'em play" and not call fouls, that's fine, but do it the whole game.
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Purdue looked that night like a tired team, travelling for a midweek game to the middle of nowhere in central PA. They we're clutching and grabbing on defense consistently. I'm sure from hundreds of miles away Mackey was filled with boos, but Purdue was not moving their feet at all on defense that night, and the calls reflected that.
Then the refs failed to distinguish ball from arm, and instead of PSU shooting to make it a two possession game, they gave Purdue the ball with the chance to tie.
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They played Sunday afternoon and didn't play at Penn St. Until Thursday night. Fatigue was not an issue.
We must have watched a different game. Penn State got most of their free throws barreling into the paint and getting bailed out by the refs and then swallowing their whistles on the other end.
Seriously, go and rewatch it.
And I know that you like to characterize Purdue as being a grabby defense, but that was alot more prevelant 5 years ago than it is now. Heck, MSU gets called for more fouls per game than Purdue does. (Feel free to look it up).
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Just saw on the Purdue board that Matt Haarms is the first player ever in the NCAA to have a game with 20 points, 10 rebounds, 5 blocks, 100% fg, 100% 3pt, and 100%FT.
That'll do son, that'll do.
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And I know that you like to characterize Purdue as being a grabby defense, but that was alot more prevelant 5 years ago than it is now. Heck, MSU gets called for more fouls per game than Purdue does. (Feel free to look it up).
I wouldn't characterize them as that, they just were on that night.
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I don't keep our old tier spreadsheets so I don't have an easy way to look it up, but it feels like we have had more upsets this year than most. I think that is simply a product of the bottom of our league being unusually strong. Typically, with 14 teams (or even back when it was 11 or 12), at least a few are just REALLY bad. This year I think even our worst teams are at least decent. Maryland's loss last night to one of the worst teams in the league (by record anyway) illustrates that.
I'll do a full update tomorrow but the short version is that with the PSU>UMD upset we now project:
- That Michigan, Maryland, and Wisconsin will all tie at 14-6 for 3rd/4th/5th place.
- That Penn State, Nebraska, and Northwestern will all tie at 5-15 for 12th/13th/14th place.
I'll figure out all the tiebreakers when I do the full update tomorrow.
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I'll let her know tomorrow night, when she gets home, that she cost the Badgers the 4th place finish we have come to know and love.
FWIW:
A double-bye is becoming very unlikely for the Badgers. The tiebreakers are not kind to Wisconsin so they would lose almost any relevant potential tie. Thus, to get a top-4 seed they almost have to finish ahead of (not tied with) 5th place.
They can do no better than a tie with either MSU or PU and they would lose both of those ties.
They could finish ahead of Michigan but only if Michigan lost out AND Wisconsin won out. If the Badgers tied with the Wolverines they would most likely lose that tie (based on record against PU).
They would lose a tie with Maryland based on record against Purdue.
The only team that Wisconsin could win a tie with is Iowa but that probably wouldn't be a tie for 4th place so it wouldn't matter in terms of the double-bye. Even there, it could only be a 12-8 tie that would require UW to beat Iowa but otherwise lose out and Iowa to lose to UW but otherwise win out and in that case the two of them would be no better than tied with UMD for 4th/5th/6th and Maryland would win that tie.
Correction to my statement in the first paragraph: Wisconsin would not lose "almost any" relevant potential tie, they would lose any relevant potential tie. Ie, the Badgers have to finish ahead of and not tied with 5th place.
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FWIW:
AFAIK, MSU and PU have now clinched top-4 seeds and double-byes in the BTT. In theory Michigan could end up ahead of them while Maryland and/or Wisconsin could end up tied with them but the Badgers basically lose all ties so it wouldn't matter, they'd still get top-4 seeds.
The other two are between Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa with Wisconsin and Iowa being very unlikely.
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IMHO, tonight's Minnesota at Northwestern game is a "must win" for the Gophers. It isn't mathematically because, in theory, the Gophers could lose to Northwestern then turn around and beat Purdue at home and Maryland on the road to finish 9-11/19-12 and be in great shape.
As a practical matter, however, the chances of Minnesota losing to the league's worst team then turning around and beating two of the league's best teams are essentially nil.
If, like @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) , you live in the Chicago area and you want to get a good look at the B1G's bubble you should head over to Welsh-Ryan for the Wildcats' next two home games. They host Minneosta tonight at 9 EST, 8CST and Ohio State next Wednesday also at 9EST/8CST. Those two games are very important to the tournament chances of the Gophers and Buckeyes.
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I don't keep our old tier spreadsheets so I don't have an easy way to look it up, but it feels like we have had more upsets this year than most. I think that is simply a product of the bottom of our league being unusually strong. Typically, with 14 teams (or even back when it was 11 or 12), at least a few are just REALLY bad. This year I think even our worst teams are at least decent. Maryland's loss last night to one of the worst teams in the league (by record anyway) illustrates that.
I'll do a full update tomorrow but the short version is that with the PSU>UMD upset we now project:
- That Michigan, Maryland, and Wisconsin will all tie at 14-6 for 3rd/4th/5th place.
- That Penn State, Nebraska, and Northwestern will all tie at 5-15 for 12th/13th/14th place.
I'll figure out all the tiebreakers when I do the full update tomorrow.
I'd be curious as to the nature of the upsets?
How many were "upsets" where a higher tier team won a road game over a team 1 tier below them, vs. how many would have been upsets without any H/A qualifier.
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Not really a gambler, but Washington -13 at Cal and Michigan -13.5 at home against Nebraska seem like easy money tonight
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I'd be curious as to the nature of the upsets?
How many were "upsets" where a higher tier team won a road game over a team 1 tier below them, vs. how many would have been upsets without any H/A qualifier.
Here are our 24 upsets:
Date | Won | @/v | Lost |
30-Nov | UW | @ | IA |
4-Dec | IU | @ | PSU |
5-Dec | tOSU | @* | IL |
3-Jan | MN | @ | UW |
11-Jan | PU | @ | UW |
14-Jan | UNL | @ | IU |
18-Jan | NU | @ | RU |
26-Jan | RU | @ | PSU |
26-Jan | IL | @* | UMD |
26-Jan | tOSU | @ | UNL |
1-Feb | IA | v | M |
2-Feb | IU | @ | MSU |
4-Feb | PSU | @ | NU |
5-Feb | IL | v | MSU |
10-Feb | tOSU | @ | IU |
12-Feb | MSU | @ | UW |
12-Feb | PSU | v | M |
13-Feb | RU | @ | NU |
14-Feb | IL | @ | tOSU |
19-Feb | UMD | @ | IA |
23-Feb | PSU | @ | IL |
24-Feb | MSU | @ | M |
26-Feb | IU | v | UW |
27-Feb | PSU | v | UMD |
Nineteen of the 24 are wins by the road team including two (tOSU vs IL at Chicago and IL vs UMD at NYC) that weren't really road games.
There are a few sets where the road team won both in a series:
- Ohio State beat Illinois in Chicago, Illinois beat Ohio State in Columbus.
- Minnesota won at Wisconsin, Wisconsin won at Minnesota (the second wasn't an "upset" by our definition).
- Northwestern won at Rutgers, Rutgers won at Northwestern.
So five of the 19 road upsets were parts of a series where the "road" team won both games.
The other 14 per the tiers:
- Wisconsin is a better team, won at Iowa
- Indiana is a better team, won at PSU
- Purdue is a better team, won at UW
- UNL and IU are equal, UNL won on the road
- Rutgers is a better team, won at PSU
- IL is NOT a better team won "at" UMD
- tOSU is a better team, won at UNL
- IU is NOT a better team, won at MSU
- PSU is NOT a better team, won at NU
- tOSU is a better team, won at IU
- MSU is a better team, won at UW
- UMD is a better team, won at Iowa
- PSU is NOT a better team, won at IL
- MSU and M are equal, MSU won on the road
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So for the 24 upsets:
- Eight involved a better team winning unexpectedly on the road.
- Five involved an inferior team beating a better team at home.
- Five were one-half of a series where the road team won both games.
- Four involved an inferior team winning on the road against a better team.
- Two were equivalent teams where the road team won.
The first and most numerous category (better teams winning on the road) suggest that we are giving home-court-advantage too much weight.
The second category (inferior teams winning at home) suggests that we are not giving home-court-advantage enough weight.
The third category (series where the road team wins both games) are unavoidably impossible to project.
The fourth category (inferior teams winning on the road) are unavoidably impossible to project.
The fifth category (equivalent teams winning on the road) are unavoidably impossible to project.
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Nearing the end KenPom
1. MSU (4)
2. Michigan (7)
3. Purdue (10)
4. Wiscy (12)
5. Maryland (18)
6. Iowa (32)
7. OSU (33)
8. Nebraska (43)
9. PSU (45)
10. Indiana (48)
11. Minny (49)
12. Illinois (65)
13. NW (70)
14. Rutgers (80)
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Surprised Northwestern could still be anything but last, but of the rankings in Massey's composite, Northwestern is actually only behind Rutgers in 33 of 63, so just barely over half. Guessing the ones they aren't have no recency bias?
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Compare to NET ranking
1. MSU (6)
2. Michigan (9)
3. Purdue (12)
4. Wisconsin (16)
5. Maryland (26)
6. Iowa (33)
7. OSU (40)
8. Nebraska (45)
9. PSU (50)
10. Indiana (59)
11. Minny (60)
12. NW (85)
13. Illinois (91)
14. Rutgers (104)
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B1G Bubble Watch:
Minnesota might be in rougher shape than I was previously thinking. Lunardi still has them as one of his "first four out" and the worldwide leader's "Bubble Watch" states that they can play their way in (I agree that they CAN). That said, they are rapidly running out of time. They won their last two games in January to finish that month at 6-4/16-5. The problem is that since then they have lost six of seven and the only win was at home against a reeling Indiana.
In the Massey composite posted by @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) on Tuesday they were seventh in the conference and 45th nationally but in the KenPom and NET rankings posted by @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) earlier today they are 11th in the conference and 49th and 60th nationally respectively.
Minnesota REALLY needs a win tonight in Evanston.
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How many teams are still in the hunt for the regular season title?
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How many teams are still in the hunt for the regular season title?
MSU and PU are in the lead at 14-3 so the worst they could possibly end up is 14-6. Thus, only the five teams with six or less losses are mathematically in the hunt for the regular season title, those are:
- 14-3 MSU
- 14-3 PU
- 13-4 M
- 12-6 UMD
- 11-6 UW
That said, as a practical matter Maryland and Wisconsin have no chance. It is theoretically possible that either MSU (@IU, vUNL, vM) or PU (vtOSU, @MN, @NU) could hit a swoon and lose out but it isn't a realistic possibility that both of them will lose out and that Michigan will beat MSU but lose their other two remaining games (vUNL, @UMD).
Thus, as a practical matter it is between MSU, PU, and M and even there the Wolverines are facing very long odds because they are a game down AND they have the toughest remaining schedule.
Short answer: Purdue and MSU are strong co-favorites with Michigan well behind and nobody else has a realistic shot.
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Congrats Purdue
https://twitter.com/Jellis1016/status/1101249186341752832?s=19
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So is this just Miles burning down the locker room on his way out?
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FWIW, Michigan's win mathematically eliminated the Badgers and Terps from the league championship race because the Wolverines and Spartans each have 14 wins and play each other. The winner of that game can do no worse than 15-5 while UMD and UW can do no better than 14-6.
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Yes, my understanding is that tonight's win clinched a top 4 seed in the BTT for Michigan after Maryland and Wisconsin lost this week.
More importantly, tonight showed Michigan's potential, especially for next year, since Matthews was out, and he's the only player who could/should go pro this year (he's a 4th-yr Jr so he'll have his degree)..... It was great to finally see Castleton be the primary backup center over Johns and Davis, and he played well in limited minutes. DeJulius wasn't so great in the 2-PG lineup, but neither was Brooks so that backup role is still less decided. Johns is presumably the backup forward but wasn't forced to play because Brazdeikis and Livers stayed out of foul trouble.
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Man, MSU is having a season of 21st century Purdue-like injury luck.
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So is this just Miles burning down the locker room on his way out?
What happened?
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Fran suspended yesterday. No word on whether or not he is mad about it.
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Let the madness begin!
Entering March, as a reminder these are our tiers (with +/-):
- PU+1, MSU, M-3
- UMD-1, UW-3
- Iowa-1
- tOSU+2, MN+2, IL+1
- RU+1, IU+1, UNL, NU-2
- PSU+2
Based on those, here are the projected final standings/BTT seeds (with remaining games/projections):
- 17-3/26-5 Michigan State (@IU-W, vUNL-W, vM-W)
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue (vtOSU-W, @MN-W, @NU-W)
- 14-6/23-8 Maryland (vM-W, vMN-W,
- 14-6/25-6 Michigan (@UMD-L, @MSU-L)
- 14-6/22-9 Wisconsin (vPSU-W, vIA-W, @tOSU-W)
- 12-8/23-8 Iowa (vRU-W, @UW-L, @UNL-W)
- 9-11/13-18 Illinois (vNU-W, vIU-W, @PSU-W)
- 8-12/18-13 Ohio State (@PU-L, @NU-L, vUW-L)
- 8-12/18-13 Minnesota (vPU-L, @UMD-L)
- 7-13/14-16 Rutgers (@IA-L, vPSU-W, @IU-L)
- 6-14/15-16 Indiana (vMSU-L, @IL-L, vRU-W)
- 5-15/12-19 Penn State (@UW-L, @RU-L, vIL-L)
- 5-15/15-16 Nebraska (@MSU-L, vIA-L)
- 4-16/13-18 Northwestern (@IL-L, vtOSU-W, vPU-L)
Tiebreakers:
- MSU wins their tie with PU based on record against the 14-6 teams.
- Wisconsin loses their tie with UMD and M based on record against the 17-3 teams, Maryland beats Michigan based on record against Iowa.
- Ohio State wins their tie with MN based on H2H but it only determines jersey color for the 8/9 game
- Penn State wins their tie with Nebraska based on their win over M
Based on these projections the BTT match-ups would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Indiana vs #14 Northwestern, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Penn State vs #13 Nebraska, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):
- #5 Wisconsin vs PSU/UNL, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Iowa vs IU/NU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Illinois vs #10 Rutgers, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Ohio State vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Michigan State vs tOSU/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Purdue vs IL/RU, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Maryland vs IA/IU/NU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Michigan vs UW/PSU/UNL, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- MSU/tOSU/MN vs M/UW/PSU/UNL, 1pm on CBS
- PU/IL/RU vs UMD/IA/IU/NU, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- MSU/tOSU/MN/M/UW/PSU/UNL vs PU/IL/RU/UMD/IA/IU/NU, 3:30pm on CBS
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What happened?
He came out in the second half and benched his three best players for lack of effort
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Not really a gambler, but Washington -13 at Cal and Michigan -13.5 at home against Nebraska seem like easy money tonight
Well, I hope I wouldn't have parlayed that at least.
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You don't often a non-gambler display such an encyclopedic knowledge of Vegas odds and point spreads.
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You don't often a non-gambler display such an encyclopedic knowledge of Vegas odds and point spreads.
ESPN shows them now on their scoreboard page. They just both jumped out to me when I was looking to see what Top 25 games were last night. Follow some real gamblers on Twitter, and you'll see an actual encyclopedic knowledge. Point spreads of Top 25 games are nothing. They have bets out on O/U in SWAC games in a given night.
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Not sure how I hadn't noticed it, but there's an article today about the relay process to alert Kyle Ahrens he's subbing in, because his back tightens up too much if he sits on the bench, so when he comes out, he stays in the tunnel to stay loose.
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Who is still in the race for what:
The League Championship:
There are three teams with 14 wins and two of them play each other which means that at least one team mathematically has to finish at least 15-5. Thus, the other 11 teams in the conference are all mathematically eliminated because they each have at least six losses. The league championship is between Michigan State (14-3), Purdue (14-3), and Michigan (14-4).
As a practical matter, Michigan State and Purdue are co-favorites because they are a game ahead in the loss column and have easier remaining schedules. Michigan has the opportunity to give the Spartans a fourth loss but other than that all they can do is win out and hope that Purdue stumbles (vtOSU, @MN, @NU).
A top-4 seed and double-bye in the B1G Tournament at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois:
The three aforementioned teams still in the league championship race have clinched top-4 seeds and double-byes. Mathematically there remains a possibility that one or two (but not all three) of them could end up tied with each other and/or Maryland and/or Wisconsin for 2nd/3rd/4th/5th but it wouldn't matter because the Badgers would lose any of those ties.
The fourth and final top-4 seed and double bye is mathematically between the Terps (12-6), the Badgers (11-6), and the Hawkeyes (10-7). Wisconsin loses all ties so they can only get it by finishing ahead of the Terps and Hawkeyes. Maryland would also win a tie with Iowa so the Terps will get the #4 seed so long as they finish at least tied for 4th place. Iowa would win a tie with Wisconsin or lose a tie with Maryland.
A top-10 seed and single-bye in the B1G Tournament at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois:
Ohio State has clinched a top-10 seed and single-bye. Mathematically the Buckeyes could finish as bad as 8-12 and behind MN, RU, and IL (along with the top-6) and tied with IU and PSU for 10th/11th/12th but the Buckeyes would win that tie and get the #10 seed even in that worst-case-scenario.
The three remaining top-10 seeds and single-byes are mathematically between the Gophers (8-10), Scarlet Knights (6-11), Illini (6-11), Hoosiers (5-12), Nittany Lions (5-12), Cornhuskers (5-13), and Wildcats (3-14).
Northwestern actually might be mathematically eliminated. The best they could do is 6-14 and tied with Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana, and Penn State for 9th/10th/11th/12th/13th. I'm not sure who would win that tie and I'm not going to bother figuring it out because the Wildcats will most likely eliminate themselves with a loss in Champaign on Sunday.
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B1G Bubble Watch:
Locks 5:
MSU, PU, M, UMD, UW. The worst-case-scenario for the worst of these teams would be 11-10/19-13 (UW) and the bubble is soft enough that that would get them in.
Should be in 1:
Iowa. The 10-7/21-7 Hawkeyes may already be a lock but I hesitate to give lock status to a team that could end up under .500 in league games and the Hawkeyes still could. If they lost out they would finish 10-11/21-11. That would probably get them in but finishing by losing five straight and six of seven including a home loss to Rutgers and a first-game exit from the BTT would make it at least debatable.
Bubble 2:
Ohio State 8-9/18-10 has games remaining @PU, @NU, and vUW. They are extremely unlikely to win in West Lafayette but the other two games could go either way. Losing out would put the Buckeyes in a precarious position heading into the BTT.
Minnesota 8-10/18-11 has games remaining vPU and @UMD. They are extremely unlikely to win in College Park so taking out Purdue at home would REALLY help. Their win at Northwestern was enough to get them back into Lunardi's field but they have been balanced right on the cut line for a while now. If they lose both games to finish 8-12/18-13 then I think that they would need at least one win in Chicago.
The league's other six teams would all need a miraculous finish.
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This weekend's games:
Minnesota and Nebraska are off this weekend. The other 12 teams are playing their 18th or 19th game.
- Ohio State at Purdue: The Buckeyes could certainly use a win here but losing will not hurt them much. For the Boilermakers this is about staying on pace in the league championship race and maintaining/improving NCAA seed.
- Michigan State at Indiana: If the Hoosiers can make lightning strike a second time and accomplish another upset of the Spartans it might fire the Hoosiers NCAA talk back up. For MSU this is about staying on pace in the league championship race and maintaining/improving NCAA seed.
- Michigan at Maryland: Michigan's slim league championship hopes are on the line here. Mathematically they could get a share even with a loss but not practically. For Maryland a win here would go a long way toward locking up a double-bye in Chicago.
- Penn State at Wisconsin: The suddenly surging Nittany Lions should not be overlooked in this game. A loss for the Badgers could eliminate them from contention for a double-bye.
- Rutgers at Iowa: I believe that the Hawkeyes would lock up an NCAA bid with a win.
- Northwestern at Illinois: A loss for Northwestern would formally eliminate them from contention for a BTT bye (if they aren't already). For the Illini this is about BTT seeding. The Illini are tied for 9th/10th with Rutgers and the Scarlet Knights should lose in Iowa City. The Illini are also only a game-and-a-half behind #8 Minnesota and only two games behind #7 Ohio State and have a much easier remaining schedule than either of those teams. We are still projecting them to finish alone in 7th place but a home loss to Northwester would obviously change that.
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At first thought, you'd think if MSU lost when they had Ward, and Indiana played 3/4 of the game without Morgan, how well can they fare with that flipped? But Ward was downright horrible. I'd certainly rather have Ward than not, but I'd rather have no Ward than the Ward we had that game.
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Kaleb Wesson suspended for undisclosed reasons. Gee whiz.
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Kaleb Wesson suspended for undisclosed reasons. Gee whiz.
Yeah of the Boilermaker continues
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Yeah of the Boilermaker continues
I didn't know you were from Boston. :)
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Wicked good luck going into your game this weekend
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Yeah of the Boilermaker continues
A. To think, they were 6-5 and then 9-6.
B. If indefiantly wants to be a week and a half, my ailing Badgers would appreciate it.
C. In that vein, when Purdue came to UW, their No. 2 big was out. So their No. 3 stepped up and went on a damn tear.
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A. To think, they were 6-5 and then 9-6.
B. If indefiantly wants to be a week and a half, my ailing Badgers would appreciate it.
C. In that vein, when Purdue came to UW, their No. 2 big was out. So their No. 3 stepped up and went on a damn tear.
The biggest thing I've noticed is Trevion Williams showed up, and then Matt Haarms got good.
My biggest takeaway after MSU beat them in EL, was "well, at least they found their big, because Haarms as the #1 guy has not been good." It seems like once Williams pushed him they went from having no good bigs to two. In November/December they were just whatever Edwards could do. I said they reminded me of 2007 MSU with Neitzel. That he would go full hero, surrounded by a bunch of guys who weren't that impressive, but he alone was good enough to get them middling into the tourney.
Funny thing is now, MSU is more that, with Langford/Ward out. Granted Winston "hero ball" is a little different. Less shooting than Neitzel/Edwards, more keeping the ball for insane amounts of the shot clock.
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There is a strong argument that we should move Northwestern down to tier-6. The difference between tier-5 (where they are now) and tier-6 is projected result in home games against tier-4:
So they are 1-1 with one more to play. I just think that the Wildcats haven't progressed as well as other teams in the league and I consider them to be the weakest team in the league right now. Moving them down would put both the Wildcats and the Gophers back within +/-1.
The only other impact would be to change the projected outcome of the tOSU@NU game coming up on March 6 from a projected win for the home Wildcats to a projected win for the road Buckeyes. Northwestern would still be projected to finish last but it would move the Buckeyes into a projected tie with Illinois for 7th/8th. That doesn't really matter though because the Buckeyes would lose that tie and still get the #8 seed.
If Ohio State wins in Evanston next week I'll move Northwestern down but by that point it will hardly matter with just one game to go for each team.
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Kaleb Wesson suspended for undisclosed reasons. Gee whiz.
Hopefully it was a minor reason, the article I read said violation of AD policy. I didn't figure the Buckeyes had a chance in West Lafayette this weekend anyway and they should probably beat NU without him but it would be really helpful to have him against UW.
I'm hoping for a #7 seed in the BTT for the Buckeyes. It has less to do with path and all that than simply with the ability as a fan to watch the games. #8/9 plays Thursday at 12:30 then if they win that they play Friday at 12:30. #7 plays Thursday at 7pm then if they win that they play Friday at 7pm.
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The biggest thing I've noticed is Trevion Williams showed up, and then Matt Haarms got good.
My biggest takeaway after MSU beat them in EL, was "well, at least they found their big, because Haarms as the #1 guy has not been good." It seems like once Williams pushed him they went from having no good bigs to two. In November/December they were just whatever Edwards could do. I said they reminded me of 2007 MSU with Neitzel. That he would go full hero, surrounded by a bunch of guys who weren't that impressive, but he alone was good enough to get them middling into the tourney.
Funny thing is now, MSU is more that, with Langford/Ward out. Granted Winston "hero ball" is a little different. Less shooting than Neitzel/Edwards, more keeping the ball for insane amounts of the shot clock.
Neitzel was a maestro
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The biggest thing I've noticed is Trevion Williams showed up, and then Matt Haarms got good.
My biggest takeaway after MSU beat them in EL, was "well, at least they found their big, because Haarms as the #1 guy has not been good." It seems like once Williams pushed him they went from having no good bigs to two. In November/December they were just whatever Edwards could do. I said they reminded me of 2007 MSU with Neitzel. That he would go full hero, surrounded by a bunch of guys who weren't that impressive, but he alone was good enough to get them middling into the tourney.
Funny thing is now, MSU is more that, with Langford/Ward out. Granted Winston "hero ball" is a little different. Less shooting than Neitzel/Edwards, more keeping the ball for insane amounts of the shot clock.
Williams was a huge boost. If you noticed, when we went into our lull over the last several games (lost at Maryland which you can't really complain about, but our wins over PSU and IU were nowhere near dominating), it was when Tre was battling illness (strep throat, I think). Take him away, and you miss out on a lot because Evan Boudreaux is just NOT a B1G-caliber 5.
But I think even beyond Williams, the team as a whole started to come together. Nojel Eastern figured out that he can score, and managed to learn to shoot free throws too. Grady Eifert, king of the hustle plays, started contributing on the offensive end. Ryan Cline got out of his shooting slump, and remembered that you're allowed to dribble in the direction of the hoop and 2-pointers are legal shots. And Haarms started to realize that if you're fouling out of games, it doesn't help your team win, so might as well start learning to play defense without hacking people. Eric Hunter off the bench provides a surprisingly good defensive presence when Eastern is out. Aaron Wheeler is still a bit streaky, but his athleticism is unmatched. Sasha is turning into a mix of what Cline used to be (sharpshooter off the bench) and what Dakota became (defensively a lot better than you'd think).
But beyond ALL of that offensively, the improvement in Purdue has been on the defensive end. KenPom currently has Purdue 32nd defensively. 6 weeks ago, I think we were in the 60s or 70s. BartTorvik's site says that Purdue's adjusted defense has improved almost 10 points between game 1 and today. That's especially meaningful because a lot of the teams we played early in the non-con were cupcakes, and now we're in the heart of conference play.
All of this is a credit to Painter's coaching, IMHO. He took a team of good players who were nearly all lacking minutes in previous years and slowly built them into a team that plays some amazing offense and some very solid defense. The team was playing strong offense all year. But the defensive improvement has been the difference between starting 6-5 and being currently 21-7.
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Who is not jazzed for UW-PSU? This guy. (Though I probably won't watch live)
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Sounds like McQuaid is playing, but is a bit limited. Probably not going to put him on Langford.
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Good god ... I have to pull for IU today :91: :91:
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5 turnovers in 6 minutes. We got our clean game out last week. Rebounding much better than the last IU game
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Henry is athletic enough to get to the rim so often, but good good he struggles to finish. 4 points, but 2 turnovers in the paint, a missed layup, and a blocked from behind dunk
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That was piss poor basketball. MSU can't hold onto the ball or defend, IU can't shoot or rebound.
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Their power forward has 4 career threes. He had 3 in the first half.
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An Ahrens/Goins side bet as to who could play crappier defense would explain a lot of things
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Badgers look like hot garbage so far. Jeez.
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This is the zero room for error issue. When all of MSUs role players play well, they still have enough. But when they don't, there is nobody to step up.
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IU keeping it interesting.
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Winston looks completely dead. He's barely moving
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Have to enjoy when Gus Johnson drops a casual, "Langford, with the ball, pushes off, takes his shot," like it's just part of his arsenal.
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Oh well, unfortunately that's the predictable outcome everytime our role players don't bring their A game. There simply aren't enough healthy players, even worse with McQuaid hurt. As I said Thursday, congrats Purdue.
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IU fans rush the court. :smiley_confused1:
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Lol
https://twitter.com/chrissolari/status/1101925412408578049?s=19
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Well this isn't fun
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Well this isn't fun
We're going to have to agree to disagree there.
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My rule is always pick MSU to lose the first game of a weekend (First Round, Sweet 16, Final 4), but I think I'm going to break that this year.
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My rule is always pick MSU to lose the first game of a weekend (First Round, Sweet 16, Final 4), but I think I'm going to break that this year.
Why? Depth due the injuries, or something else.
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I'm just glad that they scored more points than they lost by. Didn't look like that would be the case there for a while.
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Sorry to the Buckeye fans. That was just walking into a buzz saw today. Wire to wire, the way Purdue was playing there might not have been a team in the nation that would've beat this team.
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Bad, how UW played while I didn’t watch
Good: UW has 20 wins this season with two to go, and that’s not to be underrated.
Very good: I feel A LOT better about the IU loss. Thanks MSU and sorry ELA.
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Bad, how UW played while I didn’t watch
Good: UW has 20 wins this season with two to go, and that’s not to be underrated.
Very good: I feel A LOT better about the IU loss. Thanks MSU and sorry ELA.
Be glad you didn't watch. It was not easy on the eyes.
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Why? Depth due the injuries, or something else.
Depth. With Ahrens being done, they are down to 5 guys, and one is on a sprained ankle, and can't shoot on it. MSU was scoreless the last 5 minutes. They simply dont have enough guys period, let alone to play two games in three days. Only chance is to just lay the wood on some 14 seed and limit Winston to like 25 minutes. But they can't beat decent teams right now without 40 minutes of Winston playing well, and getting role guys to play like starters. They got that against Michigan, but it was clear today Winston is spent. And since UM we learned Ahrens is done, and now McQuaid has a sprained ankle.
Has to be the worst football/basketball injury year I can ever remember. Starting QB, RB, both WRs and best CB in football, then 2 of their 3 best players in basketball. Hopefully we get some makeup luck next year.
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Iowa at home down to Rutger at the half. They don't look good right now. Maybe Fran makes a difference. Will be interesting to see how H2 unfolds.
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Be glad you didn't watch. It was not easy on the eyes.
I have a replay saved. Jazzed to watch with a critical eye and no stress.
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I have a replay saved. Jazzed to watch with a critical eye and no stress.
I'll be interested to read your observations. You're good at that stuff.
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Rutgers (they get their '"s" back) is up 20 on Iowa. Wowzers. 7 minutes left.
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Fran should apparently win Coach of the Year
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B1G eating its own. That's what that was.
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Fran should apparently win Coach of the Year
May I reserve this Iowa team in Madison
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Sorry to the Buckeye fans. That was just walking into a buzz saw today. Wire to wire, the way Purdue was playing there might not have been a team in the nation that would've beat this team.
That was kinda how I felt. When Purdue took off (after it was, IIRC 4-4 about 4 mins in) the Boilermakers made something like nine of 10 shots with a bunch being threes and the one miss being rebounded and dunked. I'm sure that Ohio State made a few defensive mistakes during that but I'm not sure that it mattered. Nobody should shoot that well against air. Just not a good day to be a visitor in Mackey.
Other than that it was a day for upsets in the B1G: IU beat MSU again, PSU very nearly beat Wisconsin, and somehow Rutgers walked into Carver-Hawkeye and knocked off Iowa.
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I'll be somewhere in the section behind the Michigan bench today.... There should be a decent contingent of Michigan fans (nothing like Michigan - Maryland football games, of course, where we just take over their stadium) there so it'll be interesting to see how that goes.
As with the first time they played, Michigan has to take advantage of the turnover margin (Maryland has one of the worst in the country), keep it even in rebounding, and avoid any dumb fouls, because otherwise it's a pretty even matchup, even without Matthews who's status is apparently doubtful, though he had one of his better games this season against Maryland..... I'm intrigued to see how Castleton will do against their big men. I'm sure Beilein will try to only sub him in when Fernando is out, but even so.
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Depth. With Ahrens being done, they are down to 5 guys, and one is on a sprained ankle, and can't shoot on it. MSU was scoreless the last 5 minutes. They simply dont have enough guys period, let alone to play two games in three days. Only chance is to just lay the wood on some 14 seed and limit Winston to like 25 minutes. But they can't beat decent teams right now without 40 minutes of Winston playing well, and getting role guys to play like starters. They got that against Michigan, but it was clear today Winston is spent. And since UM we learned Ahrens is done, and now McQuaid has a sprained ankle.
Has to be the worst football/basketball injury year I can ever remember. Starting QB, RB, both WRs and best CB in football, then 2 of their 3 best players in basketball. Hopefully we get some makeup luck next year.
Played the only 5 healthy rotation players for the final 12 minutes, and should be no surprise they didn't score in the final 5. Not sure what the answer is, maybe there isn't one. I do think Brown and Kithier need extended PT against Nebraska, we can't win anything without them . Hell, I'd probably do it again for the exhibition tourney in Chicago in a couple weeks. They have to find a way to get them more minutes. You can't ask Winston, McQuaid (on a sprained ankle), Henry, Goins, Tillman to basically play a whole game, and at a high level. Two of those guys shouldn't even be starting.
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Long rebound after long rebound.
Someone told me that it wasn't a real big issue, but watching Maryland will change your mind.
Never seen so many long offensive rebounds go against the Terps.
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Would have blown them out if we could make a layup.
I've never seen a team miss so many layups in my life.
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https://twitter.com/CBSSports/status/1102336305093062656
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Long rebound after long rebound.
Someone told me that it wasn't a real big issue, but watching Maryland will change your mind.
Never seen so many long offensive rebounds go against the Terps.
That had to be frustrating to watch for you. Completely takes away the height advantage a team like MD has.
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So now, the Badgers have to win out to secure a double bye. I'm not really confident about this at all. They will get Iowa's and OSU's best shot to end the season.
Of course, Iowa will be without their coach in Madison this week, which could make it a little tougher for them. But, UW is always circled on the Hawkeye calendar. And the Buckwipes? They could be looking for an NCAA birth. They could probably seal that with a win in Evanston this week, against Chicago's B1G team.
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Northwestern defense just slapped the floor against Illinois.
I'm not a fan of floor slapping. But some teams have at least earned it. Northwestern isn't one of them.
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northwestern is just bad tonight
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northwestern is just bad tonight
Now it's a good post. Not sure how much longer Doug's kid can last there.
Not sure why he even took that job. Also not sure why they put so much $$$ into making that HS gym into a better HS gym.
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the eyeball test didn't lie
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the eyeball test didn't lie
It never does.
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hopefully, you are someplace warmer, posting from a damn cell phone or an internet cafe
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Coaxing quality minutes out of Castleton is a significant development for Michigan.
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hopefully, you are someplace warmer, posting from a damn cell phone or an internet cafe
3 days. LONG days. On to FL.
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Great game today. I was impressed by the atmosphere (though the piped music was a little unnecessarily obnoxious at times). Apparently, the section behind the visitor's bench is the only non-student section lowest-level area other than the endline opposing the main section on the other side that goes up to the top, so I had a great view of the game, except I couldn't see the near sidelines.
I was actually rather frustrated by Maryland's offensive rebounding, which was slightly better than Michigan's (39% to 33% OR%). Turnovers and fouls proved to be the difference (yes, there were some bad calls but they went both ways), after Michigan caught up in shooting in the second half.
Once again, today's game was a very encouraging sign for next year with Matthews being out again (but hopefully back for the Sparty rematch next weekend), especially with Castleton holding his own behind Teske. DeJulius was okay, though he played better when replacing Simpson in the second half as opposed to the 2-PG lineup in the first half. Brooks continues to be furstrating, so hopefully he won't play once Matthews is back, but Michigan will have to find a new backup for the 2/3/4 spot next year, be it Johns, Nunez, or one of the incoming freshmen.
Hopefully Minnesota and/or Northwestern can upset Purdue to make the Sparty rematch for at least a share of the Big Ten title, but I'm certainly not expecting that to be the case. It's been a great season, regardless, though, and I think they can potentially win the BTT again (especially with just 3 games to play) and make another NCAA tournament run....
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There were six B1G games this weekend and half of them resulted in upsets so the projections have changed. For review, here are the tiers:
- PU+1, MSU-1, M-2
- UMD-2, UW-3
- Iowa-2
- tOSU+2, MN+2, IL+1
- RU+2, IU+2, UNL, NU-2
- PSU+2
The updated projections heading into the final week are (tiebreakers below):
- 17-3/24-7 Purdue
- 16-4/25-6 Michigan State
- 15-5/26-5 Michigan
- 14-6/22-9 Wisconsin
- 13-7/22-9 Maryland
- 11-9/22-9 Iowa
- 9-11/13-18 Illinois
- 8-12/18-13 Ohio State
- 8-12/15-15 Rutgers
- 8-12/18-13 Minnesota
- 7-13/16-15 Indiana
- 5-15/12-19 Penn State
- 5-15/15-16 Nebraska
- 4-16/13-18 Northwestern
The 8-12 tiebreaker:
The Buckeyes, Scarlet Knights, and Gophers are all projected to finish 8-12. The first tiebreaker is H2H. Rutgers split with both so they are 2-2 but the Buckeyes and Gophers only played once with Ohio State winning. Thus, tOSU (2-1) is first, RU (2-2) is second, and MN (1-2) loses.
The 5-12 tiebreaker:
The Nittany Lions and Cornhuskers are projected to finish 5-15. The first tiebreaker is H2H but the two teams split their series so we move to the next tiebreaker which is record against the best team(s) in the conference, then the next, etc. Both teams are project to finish 0-season against #1 PU and #2 MSU but the Nittany Lions did defeat both #3 M and #4 UMD so they win the tie based on their superior record against Michigan.
Those seeds would result in the following BTT match-ups at the United Center in Chicago, IL:
Wednesday, March 13:
- #11 Indiana vs #14 Northwestern, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Penn State vs #13 Nebraska, 6:30pm on BTN
Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):
- #5 Maryland vs PSU/UNL, 3pm on BTN
- #6 Iowa vs IU/NU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #7 Illinois vs #10 Minnesota, 7pm on BTN
- #8 Ohio State vs #9 Rutgers, 12:30pm on BTN
Friday, March 15:
- #1 Purdue vs tOSU/RU, 12:30pm on BTN
- #2 Michigan State vs IL/MN, 7pm on BTN
- #3 Michigan vs IA/IU/NU, 9:30pm on BTN
- #4 Wisconsin vs UMD/PSU/UNL, 3pm on BTN
Saturday, March 16:
- PU/tOSU/RU vs UW/UMD/PSU/UNL, 1pm on CBS
- MSU/IL/MN vs M/IA/IU/NU, 3:30pm on CBS
Sunday, March 17:
- PU/tOSU/RU/UW/UMD/PSU/UNL vs MSU/IL/MN/M/IA/IU/NU, 3:30pm on CBS
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B1G Bubble Watch:
Locks 5: PU, M, MSU, UW, UMD
Should be in 1:
Iowa: The Hawkeyes probably could have moved up to lock status with a win in either of their last two games (@tOSU, vRU) but they have now lost two straight and three out of four and remain here.
Bubble 3:
Ohio State 8-10/18-11: After the Buckeyes blowout loss in Mackey Arena, Lunardi dropped them to a #10 seed and the Buckeyes still have work to do. The bad news is that we project them to lose their last two games but the good news is that both (@NU, vUW) are close to coin-flips so it isn't unreasonable for Buckeye fans to hope for 9-11/19-12 or even 10-10/20-11. However, AFAIK the Kaleb Wesson suspension is still "indefinite" and the Buckeyes looked terrible against Purdue without him. On the other hand, maybe that was just Purdue looking that good as opposed to Ohio State looking that bad.
Minnesota 8-10/18-11: The Gophers won at Northwestern last week and, like the Buckeyes, we project them to lose out. The problem for Minnesota is that their remaining games are tougher than Ohio State's. The Gophers face Purdue at home this week and travel to College Park to face the Terps this weekend. Unless they can pull at least one upset they are going to get to Chicago needing to win at least one game. Lunardi currently has them as a #11 seed and one of the "last four byes".
Indiana 6-12/15/14: The Hoosiers are barely over .500 overall and can do no better than 8-12 in conference. Most teams in that situation would not be listed on the bubble but Indiana isn't most teams. Their recent win over Michigan State completed a season sweep of the Spartans and gave the Hoosiers their sixth quad-1 win. It also put them back into the Worldwide leader's bubble discussion. They finish with games at Illinois and vs Rutgers and if they win those . . .
Need a miraculous finish 2:
7-11/14-14 Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have now won two straight and three of their last five to stay, at least theoretically, alive. If they won out to the B1GCG they would finish 12-12/19-15 and I think that might get them an at-large bid.
5-13/15-14 Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have now lost three straight and 10-of-12 but if they magically turn things around and win out to the B1GCG I think they might get an at-large bid at 10-14/20-15.
Need to win BTT 3:
Illinois, Penn State, Northwestern.
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Indiana 6-12/15/14: The Hoosiers are barely over .500 overall and can do no better than 8-12 in conference. Most teams in that situation would not be listed on the bubble but Indiana isn't most teams. Their recent win over Michigan State completed a season sweep of the Spartans and gave the Hoosiers their sixth quad-1 win. It also put them back into the Worldwide leader's bubble discussion. They finish with games at Illinois and vs Rutgers and if they win those . . .
Lunardi moved them up to the #5 team out. Granted the Marquette and Louisville wins took a bit of a ding this weekend. They'll probably get swept by Illinois and Rutgers this week though.
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Early on I said Friday in the BTT could be epic with how good the top 8 were. OSU, Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska are not close to what we thought they were in early January, and Iowa sort of seems meh. Flip side, suddenly Illinois, Rutgers and Penn State all look better than we thought they were at the time. Wisconsin-Maryland, if it plays out in the 4-5 game, could be big, but the other 3 Friday games might just be teams playing spoilers.
But now Thursday looks like it could be better than it's ever been, particularly is Nebraska and Northwestern go home Wednesday.
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A little more detail on the B1G's three bubble teams:
Ohio State 8-10/18-11: Prior to the blowout loss to Purdue the Buckeyes were a projected #9 seed (Lunardi) and the Worldwide leader's bubble watch seemed to suggest that they might already be a lock with their comment that Ohio State's worst case scenario of 18-13 overall and 8-12 in conference "should get the job done". Now they are down to a #10 seed.
Frankly, I never thought that Ohio State was a lock in part because their worst case isn't actually 8-12/18-13 but 8-13/18-14 with a BTT loss. I just don't think that will get it done. As mentioned above, we project the Buckeyes to lose both of their remaining scheduled games but they are both close calls (@NU, vUW). Those are even bigger question marks due to the indefinite Kaleb Wesson suspension. The Buckeyes could lose both, lose to NU without him then beat UW with him, beat NU and lose to UW, or beat NU (probably without Wesson), then beat Wisconsin (with or without). Who knows. ESPN says that Ohio State has a 53.7% chance to beat Northwestern and a 48.2% chance to beat Wisconsin. That suggests that the Buckeyes are very likely to go 1-1.
As far as BTT seed, the Buckeyes are projected to finish in a three-way tie with MN and RU for 8th/9th/10th and win that tie to get the #8 seed. If they win one of their last two the Buckeyes would move into a projected tie with IL for 7th/8th and lose that tie so no change in seed. However, if the Buckeyes won both or if Illinois lost one of their projected wins (vIU, @PSU) and Ohio State won one then the Buckeyes would likely finish alone in seventh place.
I've been saying since mid January that I thought the Buckeyes were a borderline tournament team and at this point that is almost guaranteed. Their worst-case-scenario is probably barely out and their best-case scenario is not much better than "barely in".
Minnesota 8-10/18-11: The Gophers have been just behind the Buckeyes, bouncing between barely in and barely out in projected brackets for a while and that hasn't changed. Their last two games (vPU, @UMD) are great opportunities in that winning would be REALLY good but they are landmines because winning is REALLY unlikely. IMHO, if Minnesota loses both of those remaining games they are going to need to win some games in Chicago. This would be particularly problematic for the B1G if the Gophers and Buckeyes both end up in the same boat and playing each other in their opening game of the BTT because the loser would likely be out.
As far as BTT seed, we currently project them to finish in the three-way tie with Ohio State and Rutgers. That is REALLY up in the air though because the other two members of that tie and Illinois (projected to finish one game ahead) each have two remaining games that could plausibly go either way.
Indiana 6-12/15-14: The Hoosiers are just an odd team. Upthread, @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) said that they would probably get swept this week/weekend by Illinois and Rutgers. Judging by Indiana's performance this season that sounds about right: Beat two good teams (UW, MSU) then lose to two bad teams (IL, RU). Indiana has great wins (MSU2x, Louisville, Marquette, Wisconsin but they also have a slew of questionable-to-bad losses. We project them to split their two remaining games with a loss in Champaign and a home win over Rutgers. In that case they would head to the BTT at 7-13/16-15 with a lot of work to do. That said, Indiana could certainly win both and head to Chicago at 8-12/17-14. That record, with their collection of high-end wins would put them firmly in the Bubble discussion.
Indiana's BTT seed may be the biggest riddle of all. The Hoosiers' next two opponents (IL, RU) are the two teams that are currently one game ahead of them in the standings. Thus, by winning out the Hoosiers guarantee themselves of no worse than a tie with the Illini and Scarlet Knights. Additionally, Minnesota and Ohio State are both two games ahead of the Hoosiers and projected to lose out so we could end up with a five-way tie for 8th/9th/10th/11th/12th. That would be interesting but it is also, at least for now, highly unlikely. Here are IU's possibly relevant H2H tiebreaking records:
- 0-1 v tOSU
- 0-1 v MN
- 0-1 v RU with one more to play
- 1-0 v IL with one more to play
- 0-1 v UNL
- 1-0 v PSU
There is a decent chance that all three bubble teams will get to Chicago in need of at least one more win so the best thing for the conference as a whole would be if they managed to avoid each other. That is somewhat unlikely because they are all likely to fall in the 7/8/9/10 range but it isn't impossible.
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Early on I said Friday in the BTT could be epic with how good the top 8 were. OSU, Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska are not close to what we thought they were in early January, and Iowa sort of seems meh. Flip side, suddenly Illinois, Rutgers and Penn State all look better than we thought they were at the time. Wisconsin-Maryland, if it plays out in the 4-5 game, could be big, but the other 3 Friday games might just be teams playing spoilers.
But now Thursday looks like it could be better than it's ever been, particularly is Nebraska and Northwestern go home Wednesday.
I agree. It is because the bottom of the conference is, as a relative matter, very good. I don't ever remember a time when the bottom of the conference (or any large conference for that matter) was this good. Usually, with 14 or even 11 teams, at least one is just dreadful but this year, even our worst team, Northwestern, isn't THAT bad.
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This week's B1G games:
Michigan and Maryland have already played 19 B1G games and they are off this week (Tue-Thur). The other 12 B1G teams will each play their 19th league game this week (Tue-Thur). Those six games are:
- Purdue at Minnesota: The Gophers could REALLY use a win here. Purdue has already locked up a bid and this game would clinch at least a share of the B1G title along with helping PU's case for a higher seed in the NCAA.
- Nebraska at Michigan State: I really can't think of anything interesting to say about this game. I think that being the team to play MSU after a big upset loss is just bad luck for the Cornhuskers.
- Iowa at Wisconsin: For the third time in as many games the Hawkeyes have an opportunity to lock up a bid. If they couldn't do it in Columbus or at home against Rutgers then they likely can't do it in Madison either but the way things have been going lately, who knows.
- Indiana at Illinois: The Hoosiers are back in the bubble discussion (fifth team out per Lunardi) but they'll fall right back out again if they can't back up their big wins with wins in games that they should win.
- Ohio State at Northwestern: The Buckeyes looked terrible in West Lafayette without Kaleb Wesson but this should be a substantially easier environment.
- Penn State at Rutgers: The Nittany Lions have won five of their last eight with all of the losses in that stretch being reasonably close road losses to probable (tOSU) or definite (UW and PU) tournament teams. Meanwhile, Rutgers comes into this contest having won two straight and those were not easy games. They beat a possible tournament team at home (MN) and a likely tournament team on the road (IA).
At this point in the season I feel that the games involving bubble teams are the most important games so Purdue at Minnesota (Tues), Ohio State at Northwestern (Wed), and Indiana at Illinois (Thur) are probably the most important viewing.
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So I think right now, you have Lunardi with Michigan and MSU as 2 seeds, with Purdue as a 3.
I think Purdue's ceiling is a 2, and absolute worst case (losing @MN, @NU, and 1st BTT game) drops them no lower than a 5, possibly even no lower than a 4. The path to a 2 is clear: win 5 games in a row to take the sole B1G regular championship crown and win the BTT. That would be 19-2 since Jan 1, and with 3 additional losses between Michigan and MSU (one loss coming to the loser next Saturday, one additional loss each in the BTT). Without winning out, there are still some paths to a 2 seed, but they rely on some teams ahead of them losing.
I think Michigan's ceiling is probably as the top 2 seed (too many losses would have to happen above them to get a 1), and their floor as a 3. Even a road loss to MSU and losing their Friday BTT game shouldn't drop them below the 3 line. Especially if that Friday BTT game is against an opponent like a solid Iowa squad or a surging/dangerous Illini team.
For MSU, it's more murky. I think their ceiling remains a 2, as they're possibly the weakest 2 on the board right now. But winning out includes a win over Michigan and Michigan having another loss in the BTT, which would have both teams finish with 6 losses. I could see MSU climbing to a high 2 seed. But their floor might be a 4. Losing at home to Nebraska and at home to Michigan, followed by a Friday exit from the BTT, probably drops them to a 4.
Anyone making predictions yet?
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(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcQOSlpf7xS6tDEDBWoWzgC_ZZAXl2vneghf2apQA-Mk62uHJQkz)
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@bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) :
I was thinking of doing a best-case/worst-case for each school but the inherent nature of each team's best case involving winning the BTT makes it overly complicated.
I roughly agree with your assessment of Purdue.
For my own school, I see it this way:
Worst case: Lose at NU (Wednesday), lose at home to UW (Sunday), lose BTT opener (next Thursday), finish 8-13/18-14, barely miss NCAA. This *MIGHT* actually get them in but it would depend on almost zero bid-thieves and a very soft bubble.
Better cases, I'll take them one game at a time:
- Win at NU on Wednesday: This solidifies tOSU's at-large case but still leaves them at probably a #9/10 seed.
- Beat Wisconsin at home on Sunday: This locks down a bid for the Buckeyes, probably a #9 seed.
- Win BTT opener next Thursday (likely #10 IL, RU, or IU): This gets tOSU at least a #8 seed and might get them off of that 8/9 line.
- Win big upset in BTT next Friday (likely #2 M/MSU winner): This probably gets tOSU off the 8/9 line.
- Win ANOTHER big upset in BTT next Saturday (likely #3 M/MSU loser): This definitively gets tOSU off the 8/9 line but probably still a #7.
- Win yet another big upset in BTT next Sunday (likely #1 PU): I think the ceiling would be a #6 seed but #7 would probably be more likely.
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Another thought on seeds in the NCAA Tournament:
First, a question: Is UVA prohibited from playing their first weekend games in Columbia, SC? I'm asking because Lunardi currently has the sites going this way:
- UK-Columbus; DOOK-Columbia; Gonzaga-SLC; UVA-Columbus
- UNC-Columbia; Tenn-Jacksonville; M-Des Moines; MSU-Des Moines
- TxTech-Tulsa; PU-Tulsa; Houston-Jacksonville; 3 KU-SLC
- VaTech-Hartford; LSU-Hartford; UW-San Jose; Marquette-San Jose
What I don't understand about Lunardi's bracket is why he has #1 seed UVA travelling all the way to Columbus (~400 mi by car) when Columbia, SC is closer.
There are a few oddities this year:
First, there are always too many Western sites but this year is worse than most because the PAC is just dreadful and might be a 1-bid league. Consequently, the Salt Lake City and San Jose sites have #1 seed Gonzaga and three far-from-home #3 and #4 seeds.
Second, there is an unusual lack of high end teams from the NE such that the Hartford, CT site also appears likely to wind up as a dumping ground for far-from-home #3 and #4 seeds (current projection is #4 VaTech and #4 LSU.
This matters for the B1G because if UVA gets the Columbia, SC site then UNC would probably head to Jacksonville which would open up one of the spots in Columbus probably for the B1G's top team. That also has a trickle-down impact. Right now Purdue is seen as the B1G's third team and they are shipped out to Tulsa. If the B1G's #1 team was in Columbus then #2 and #3 could go to Des Moines. For reference:
Columbus is:
- ~194 mi from M
- ~240 mi from PU
- ~256 mi from MSU
Des Monies is:
- ~437 mi from PU
- ~537 mi from MSU
- ~558 mi from M
Tulsa is:
- ~665 mi from Purdue
- ~882 mi from MSU
- ~903 mi from M
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Interesting. Maybe they never put two #1 seeds in the same location for the opening rounds? I assume splitting them up somewhat would help ticket sales in the other sites.
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Interesting. Maybe they never put two #1 seeds in the same location for the opening rounds? I assume splitting them up somewhat would help ticket sales in the other sites.
Lunardi currently has #1 seeds UVA and UK both in Columbus.
My guess is that geographic proximity is a bigger driver of ticket sales than high seeds. Ie, I'd be more likely to watch #4 Ohio State in Cleveland than #1 Ohio State in Chicago but I could be wrong.
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Lunardi currently has #1 seeds UVA and UK both in Columbus.
My guess is that geographic proximity is a bigger driver of ticket sales than high seeds. Ie, I'd be more likely to watch #4 Ohio State in Cleveland than #1 Ohio State in Chicago but I could be wrong.
Hmm. Maybe they just think UNC and Duke will get a HELL of a lot more tickets sold than Duke and UVA in Columbia SC.
Plus, the relative differences in mileage are pretty striking.
Looking at it, UVA is 360 miles to Columbia or 400 miles to Columbus. Not a big difference in mileage either way. If you're willing to drive 360 miles, you're willing to drive 400.
UNC is something like 250 miles to Columbia or 450 miles to Columbus. HUGE difference IMHO in whether fans will travel.
Finally, I'd say that a lot of UVA grads are likely to end up in the Washington metro, which is even farther away from Columbia than Charlottesville. Whereas I'd say a lot of UNC or Duke grads end up staying resident in NC or maybe even heading down towards Atlanta.
I don't think the committee will be as simple as looking at the 1 seeds and putting them in the closest site. I'll bet they figure that the difference between Columbia and Columbus is minimal for UVA, whereas the difference between Columbia and Columbus is MUCH greater for UNC.
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Hmm. Maybe they just think UNC and Duke will get a HELL of a lot more tickets sold than Duke and UVA in Columbia SC.
Plus, the relative differences in mileage are pretty striking.
Looking at it, UVA is 360 miles to Columbia or 400 miles to Columbus. Not a big difference in mileage either way. If you're willing to drive 360 miles, you're willing to drive 400.
UNC is something like 250 miles to Columbia or 450 miles to Columbus. HUGE difference IMHO in whether fans will travel.
Finally, I'd say that a lot of UVA grads are likely to end up in the Washington metro, which is even farther away from Columbia than Charlottesville. Whereas I'd say a lot of UNC or Duke grads end up staying resident in NC or maybe even heading down towards Atlanta.
I don't think the committee will be as simple as looking at the 1 seeds and putting them in the closest site. I'll bet they figure that the difference between Columbia and Columbus is minimal for UVA, whereas the difference between Columbia and Columbus is MUCH greater for UNC.
I think you are probably right. When I originally started typing that I just assumed that Columbia, SC was a LOT closer to UVA than Columbus, OH but as it turns out you are right, it is closer (at least by car) but the difference is negligible. You are right, anyone willing to drive 360 miles to follow their Cavaliers is probably willing to drive 400, what is an extra half hour?
I looked up the restrictions on Lunardi's site and UVA isn't one of them. They are:
- Georgetown can't be in the East Region
- Louisville can't be in the South Region
- UCONN can't play first weekend games in Hartford
- Utah can't play first weekend games in SLC
- Drake can't play first weekend games in Des Moines
- Jacksonville can't play first weekend games in Jacksonville
- Tulsa can't play first weekend games in Tulsa
- Ohio State can't play first weekend games in Columbus
- USCe can't play first weekend games in Columbia, SC.
My own guess is that it doesn't matter much for ticket sales anyway because Kentucky (alone) could sell out the arena in Columbus and Dook (alone) could sell out the arena in Columbia. Where UVA and UNC end up doesn't really matter much in that equation.
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Also something with the Play-In Games? The Tuesday winner plays Thursday and the Wednesday winner plays Friday? So you can't have the top two overall seeds both slotted to play the same day?
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Interesting. Maybe they never put two #1 seeds in the same location for the opening rounds? I assume splitting them up somewhat would help ticket sales in the other sites.
No prohibition. Lunardi has had two No. 1s in Columbia in like half his projections.
I looked back, UNC and Virginia were No. 1s that both went to Raleigh in 2016.
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It doesn't really matter where Michigan ends up for the first weekend (none of which would be favorable, though Hartford or San Jose would probably actually be preferable to Columbus with the Michigan fan base in NYC / Boston and the Bay Area), but I certainly hope they're in the DC Regional (not only for selfish reasons, because they'd have the best Michigan turnout here, though Anaheim would be good, too, as evidenced by their games in LA last year).
Also, not that it really matters, but a 1 seed is still a vague possibility if Michigan wins out and Duke, Virginia, and/or Tennessee get upset in the mean time (Gonzaga just won at Saint Mary's so it'd be a shock if they lost in the WCC tournament).... Presuming they remain a two seed, I don't really have a preference about which 1 seed would be in their region. I don't want to see Houston or Texas Tech from the 3-seed, but Purdue and Sparty are the other current 3-seeds on CBSSports.com (but I know that intra-conference rematches are only prevented through the first weekend).
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MSU probably comes down to where this committee falls on good wins vs. bad losses. I believe going into the weekend, MSU had more Quad 1 wins than any team in the country. But they also have worse losses than any of the teams right around them. Not sure where they rank in the MET, but KenPom still had them as a 1 seed (which is not realistic) after the weekend's games, with MSU, Duke and Virginia being the only teams in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
My guess though is that they wind up as the top 3. I'd like to see Ward in the BTT, just for conditioning, and to work him back in a bit before the real thing. I think they'll get dinged a couple times, with as worn out as they looked last weekend. Should still beat Nebraska tomorrow, but wouldn't shock me to see them lose to Michigan, and in a 3-6 game on Friday.
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MSU had more Quad 1 wins than any team in the country.
I think the winner of the M/MSU game has a solid shot at a 1-seed. MSU has the nation's most Quad-1 wins. Michigan has the nation's most Quad-1 + Quad-2 wins. And both teams are tied at 7-1 versus the AP Top 25, which is also the best tally and win% in cbb. The last one isn't a committee criterion but the point stands that the winner on Saturday will have strong arguments.
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Meant to post my thoughts on the Penn State game after a rewatch. Technically I didn’t feel as if Wisconsin was doing anything particularly bad. They were just missing a lot of shots that in theory the players are good enough to make. There were some issues here and there, a little too much reliance on tough shots, but generally that’s where I felt.
The Badgers are getting by with none of their three best players playing all that well on offense. If they can rediscover any of that, they’ll be in very good shape.
( I also still have no good read on Kobe King, but he feels a year away from being a true reliable frontline guy. There is potential though)
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I think the winner of the M/MSU game has a solid shot at a 1-seed. MSU has the nation's most Quad-1 wins. Michigan has the nation's most Quad-1 + Quad-2 wins. And both teams are tied at 7-1 versus the AP Top 25, which is also the best tally and win% in cbb. The last one isn't a committee criterion but the point stands that the winner on Saturday will have strong arguments.
I think if that winner also wins the BTT, then mayyyyybe. I still don't think so though.
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I think if that winner also wins the BTT, then mayyyyybe. I still don't think so though.
Depends what wins or losses occur to the teams currently ahead of them IMHO. Right now MSU and Michigan are 8 & 9 in NET, respectively.
- Gonzaga would have to slip a lot to drop below a 1.
- There are 3 ACC teams ahead of them (Duke/UVA/UNC). At least one, possibly two, of those teams is getting a 1 seed.
- Tennessee OR Kentucky (probably whichever wins their conference tourney) is most likely assured of a 1.
- Houston would have to hold serve and win out, but they're still 2 spots ahead of MSU, so I could see them with a strong shot at a 1 if they win out.
I don't see either Michigan or MSU winning out and being guaranteed a 1. I think it requires a little bit of chaos ahead of them.
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I don't think the committee looks at NET and fills the bracket. They use team sheets, which weigh other things like Quad 1 / Quad 2 wins, low Quad losses, etc. Correct me if I'm wrong, but my view on NET is that it's more of a tie breaker than a conversation starter.
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I don't think the committee looks at NET and fills the bracket. They use team sheets, which weigh other things like Quad 1 / Quad 2 wins, low Quad losses, etc. Correct me if I'm wrong, but my view on NET is that it's more of a tie breaker than a conversation starter.
I think it's flipped, I think it's the conversation starter, then they look at the team sheets to move teams up or down against the NET ranking as their baseline.
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I think NET is meant to play pretty heavily into it, largely because NET is meant to distill a lot of those other things into its ranking.
Looking at Houston's team sheet, though, I do think Houston is unlikely to be a 1...
But when you look at the teams ahead of MSU/UM in NET, you see teams with pretty solid resumes as well. Gonzaga maybe doesn't have the SOS, but they have the wins and their only losses are to Tenn/UNC. The ACC teams have SOS and good road records. The SEC teams have less SOS but good road records as well. And neither the ACC team nor Tennessee has the same "bad" losses that MSU has with two losses to Indiana (one quad-1 and one quad-2) and the quad-2 loss to Illinois. Michigan has only quad 1 losses, but they're only 8-4 in quad 1 games which doesn't really differentiate them from the schools above them.
Kentucky is the weakest of the group above with quad-1 loss to Alabama and a quad-2 loss to Seton Hall. But with 9 quad-1 wins, they're right between UM (8) and MSU (10), not a big differentiator.
But I think right now you could easily see Gonzaga, two ACC teams, and whoever comes out better in the conference tourney between Tennessee and Kentucky getting the 1 seeds. I think you'd probably have to see two ACC teams and one SEC team slip HARD to finish the season for MSU/UM to leapfrog them.
(Adding a line because I got logged out and now it thinks I already posted this.)
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Depends what wins or losses occur to the teams currently ahead of them IMHO. Right now MSU and Michigan are 8 & 9 in NET, respectively.
- Gonzaga would have to slip a lot to drop below a 1.
- There are 3 ACC teams ahead of them (Duke/UVA/UNC). At least one, possibly two, of those teams is getting a 1 seed.
- Tennessee OR Kentucky (probably whichever wins their conference tourney) is most likely assured of a 1.
- Houston would have to hold serve and win out, but they're still 2 spots ahead of MSU, so I could see them with a strong shot at a 1 if they win out.
I don't see either Michigan or MSU winning out and being guaranteed a 1. I think it requires a little bit of chaos ahead of them.
If either Michigan of Michigan State win out, they would have a strong argument, but I agree with this, they would probably still need help. That said, I'm assuming that winning out would require beating the other one once (in East Lansing on Saturday), beating a decent team on Friday in the BTT, beating the other one AGAIN on Saturday in the BTT, then beating Purdue in the B1GCG. The two games against each other, the Purdue game, and the Friday BTT game would all be quality wins. Of course, somebody in the ACC and somebody in the SEC will probably do just about the same thing so . . .
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) Any chance you could look at our tier projections from the beginning of the season, perhaps again midway through the season, and at the end of the season, to see how much things changed?
I know you said you don't normally track changes through the year, but given that you've posted in this thread with updates for basically preseason [or perhaps after the 2 December games], I recall you posting around the midpoint (all teams between 9 and 11 games played), and now we're at the end...
I think it would be a useful thing to track how much our projections from start of the season to the end are accurate.
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Unless all 5 starters play all 40 minutes, at a high level, we can't beat anyone
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After a full year of BS hook and holds, I guess we found one legit one finally.
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The Voice is on. No hoops for me. Heh.
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Everyone in the arena except Carsen Edwards knew Ryan Cline should be getting the ball late.
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If Minnesota gags this one up, Ricky shouldn't be allowed to leave the arena with a job
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Rutgers (they get their '"s" back) is up 20 on Iowa. Wowzers. 7 minutes left.
Well Iowa puts my hypothesis (any team Rutgers beats will not make NCAA Tourney) into serious jeopardy.
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Kind of interesting that Purdue finally lost a close game to Minnesota of all teams, which still almost blew it in the end. Thank you Gophers.
Looking forward to Saturday.....
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Purdue is now eliminated from contention for the #1 seed in the BTT. This is because Purdue loses all ties.
The M/MSU winner will be the #1 seed.
If Purdue wins at Northwestern they will tie the M/MSU winner for 1/2, lose that tie, and get the #2 seed.
If Purdue loses at Northwestern they will tie the M/MSU loser for 2/3, lose that tie, and get the #3 seed.
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) Any chance you could look at our tier projections from the beginning of the season, perhaps again midway through the season, and at the end of the season, to see how much things changed?
I know you said you don't normally track changes through the year, but given that you've posted in this thread with updates for basically preseason [or perhaps after the 2 December games], I recall you posting around the midpoint (all teams between 9 and 11 games played), and now we're at the end...
I think it would be a useful thing to track how much our projections from start of the season to the end are accurate.
I'll try to put something together after the last regular season games.
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Purdue is now eliminated from contention for the #1 seed in the BTT. This is because Purdue loses all ties.
The M/MSU winner will be the #1 seed.
If Purdue wins at Northwestern they will tie the M/MSU winner for 1/2, lose that tie, and get the #2 seed.
If Purdue loses at Northwestern they will tie the M/MSU loser for 2/3, lose that tie, and get the #3 seed.
And Purdue just lost any dreams of a 2 seed in the tourney.
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And Purdue just lost any dreams of a 2 seed in the tourney.
If Purdue won out including wins over MSU on Saturday and Michigan on Sunday then it might be possible for Purdue to replace MSU as a 2 seed.
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If Purdue won out including wins over MSU on Saturday and Michigan on Sunday then it might be possible for Purdue to replace MSU as a 2 seed.
Well, we know who Medina is picking Saturday night
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Everyone in the arena except Carsen Edwards knew Ryan Cline should be getting the ball late.
I saw Ryan Cline outscored Carsen Edwards last night taking 19 fewer shots?
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Big game tonight. OSU could really use another win, and no Wesson, Kyle Young on a snap count, yeesh.
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Well, we know who Medina is picking Saturday night
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You said they'll beat MSU on Saturday and UM on Sunday, meaning UM beats MSU and gets the 1 seed, and MSU-Purdue play in the 2-3 game next Saturday.
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Oh, now I get it.
No, I wasn't assuming that Michigan WOULD win on Saturday night, I was operating on the assumption that it would be easier for PU to replace MSU than Michigan. Therefore, Purdue's best-case-scenario for a #2 seed would be:
- Purdue wins at Northwestern on Saturday
- Michigan wins at Michigan State on Saturday
- Purdue gets the best possible opponent in the 2-7/10 game on Friday (likely MN or tOSU) and wins
- Michigan State wins the 3-6/11/14 game on Friday
- Michigan wins the 1-8/9 game on Friday
- Purdue beats Michigan State on Saturday
- Michigan wins the 1-4/5/12/13 game on Saturday
- Purdue beats Michigan on Sunday
In that case the three teams in question finish:
- Purdue: BTT Champion, B1G regular season co-Champion, 19-4/26-8
- Michigan: B1G regular season co-Champion, 18-5/29-5
- Michigan State: 16-5/25-8
There is a decent chance that Purdue gets an NCAA #2 seed ahead of MSU in that case.
If you flip the M/MSU results and leave everything else the same then the teams finish:
- Purdue: BTT Champion, B1G regular season co-Champion, 19-4/26-8
- Michigan: 16-5/27-6
- Michigan State: B1G regular season co-Champion, 18-5/27-7
In that case I think that it is more likely that the two Michigan schools get the B1G's top two seeds in the NCAA.
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Ah, I guess I sort of assumed it didn't matter, assuming Purdue went through both to get there. I still don't think it does. In that situation, Purdue still finishes with a winning record over MSU, including the neutral site win.
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Ah, I guess I sort of assumed it didn't matter, assuming Purdue went through both to get there. I still don't think it does. In that situation, Purdue still finishes with a winning record over MSU, including the neutral site win.
It might not matter but I was looking for Purdue's best chance. We've conceded that they can't pass both so the only comparison that matters is Purdue vs the weaker of the two Michigan schools. With that as the context, I like Purdue's chances against a 16-5/25-8 Michigan State team that they went 2-1 against better than I like their chances against a 16-5/27-6 Michigan team that they went 1-1 against.
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is this season over yet?
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is this season over yet?
I'll give Miles and his players some credit, I thought the benching in Ann Arbor were the nail in the coffin for him totally losing the locker room. But it somewhat worked, and to his players' credit, they responded to it the right way. They are simply outgunned right now, and he deserves to go, but Nebraska showed more fight last night, particularly falling down 19 points early, than I've seen from them in a few weeks.
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We are getting to the point where we are starting to narrow down potential seeds in the BTT to a level that is manageable to discuss.
The top three:
Purdue is 0-1 against Michigan and 1-1 against Michigan State. The Boilermakers lose all ties because they would lose a tie with the Wolverines based on their H2H record and they would lose a tie with the Spartans based on their inferior record against Michigan.
If Purdue wins (@NU) they will tie the M/MSU winner for the B1G Championship, lose that tie, and get the #2 seed. If they lose then they will tie the M/MSU loser for 2nd/3rd, lose that tie, and get the #3 seed.
The M/MSU winner gets the regular season Championship (or co-Championship depending on what PU does) and the #1 seed. The loser gets the #2 or #3 seed depending on what Purdue does.
The final double-bye:
The #4 seed is somewhat important in that the team that gets it can watch the Thursday games and rest up for the Fri-Sun tournament. Of course it is also important to Wisconsin fans because of their recently broken (last year) long streak of getting a top-4 seed. Wisconsin (12-6) and Maryland (12-7) are in the running. Iowa could theoretically tie for #4 but it would be a three-way tie with UW and UMD and Maryland would win that tie. Short version: Maryland wins all ties, Wisconsin loses all ties, Iowa loses to UMD but beats UW.
Wisconsin controls their own destiny because if they win out (vIA, @tOSU) they would finish alone in 4th place. Maryland needs to win (vMN) and for UW to lose one of their last two to get it by tiebreaker or to win and for UW to lose out to get it outright.
The fifth and sixth seeds: Maryland will be #4 or #5, Iowa will (most likely) be #5 or #6, Wisconsin could be #4, #5, or #6.
About that #6 seed:
If the Hawkeyes lose out (@UW, @UNL) they could wind up tied with Ohio State and/or Minnesota. The Hawkeyes went 1-1 against the Buckeyes and 0-1 against the Gophers. The Buckeyes went 1-0 against the Gophers so the potential 6th place ties break as follows:
- Iowa and Ohio State: Iowa wins based on their superior record against Michigan.
- Iowa and Minnesota: Minnesota wins based on H2H.
- Iowa, Ohio State, and Minnesota: Ohio State (2-1) wins based on H2H2H, Minnesota (1-1) is second (#7 seed), Iowa (1-2) loses (#8 seed).
After that it gets complex:
Minnesota is currently in 7th place at 9-10, 1/2 game ahead of Ohio State (8-10). Those are the two most likely teams for the #7 and #8 seeds but, as we have seen above either of those teams could steal the #6 seed if Iowa loses out. Additionally, Rutgers (7-11), Illinois (7-11), and Indiana (6-12) could each at least tie Ohio State for eighth.
Taking the teams one at a time:
9-10 Minnesota (@UMD):
The Gophers would lose a tie with tOSU (0-1 H2H), win a tie with RU (better record against PU), and win a tie with IU (1-0 H2H). A tie with Illinois is more complicated. Minnesota and Illinois split their series so the tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the conference. Illinois' best win is over MSU whom they only played once (1-0) while Minnesota's best win is over PU whom they played twice (1-1). Thus, a tie between MN and IL would be determined based on whether or not Purdue finished ahead of MSU in the final standings. If PU finishes ahead of MSU then MN wins a tie with IL, if PU finishes tied with or behind MSU then IL would win a tie with MN.
If Minnesota wins in College Park they would finish 10-10 and no worse than tied with Ohio State for 7th/8th but they would lose that tie. However, Iowa (if they lose out) would also be in that tie making it a tie for 6th/7th/8th and in that case Minnesota would get the #7 seed.
If Minnesota loses in College Park they could still get the #7 seed but that would require Ohio State to lose out and either IL to lose a game or PU to finish ahead of MSU.
8-10 Ohio State (@NU, vUW):
The Buckeyes would win a tie with MN (1-0 H2H), most likely win a tie with RU (record against MN), win a tie with IU (1-0 H2H), and lose a tie with IL (record against MSU).
If the Buckeyes win out they can do no worse than the #7 seed and would get the #6 seed if Iowa loses out AND MN wins out.
If the Buckeyes split their last two they would still probably get the #7 seed provided that MN loses in College Park and the #8 seed if not. That is really up in the air because 9-11 could be anything from tied with MN for 7th/8th to tied with RU and IL for 8/9/10.
If the Buckeyes lose out they will finish 8-12. That would be behind MN so no better than 8th but they could be behind or tied with RU and/or IL and potentially tied with IU. One clarification is that if IU finishes 8-12 that will mean that neither RU nor IL can do better than 8-12 which would mean that Ohio State and Indiana would finish in a two, three, or four way tie with each other and possibly Rutgers and/or Illinois.
7-11 Rutgers (vPSU, @IU):
The Scarlet Knights would lose a tie with MN (record against PU), most likely lose a tie with tOSU (record against MN), lose a tie with IL (0-1 H2H). RU would lose a tie with IU (record against MSU). RU would lose a tie with PSU (record against M).
If the Scarlet Knights win out they will finish 9-11. That could be as good as tied with MN for 7th/8th or as bad as tied with IL for 9th/10th.
If the Scarlet Knights split their last two they will finish 8-12. That could be as good as tied with tOSU for 8th/9th or as bad as tied with IU and IL for 9th/10th/11th.
If the Scarlet Knights lose out they will finish 7-13. That could be as good as tied with the IL/IU loser for 10th/11th or as bad as tied with PSU for 11th/12th.
7-11 Illinois (vIU, @PSU):
As noted above, a tie between Illinois and Minnesota would be determined by whether PU finished ahead of MSU in the final standings. The Illini win a tie with tOSU (record against MSU), win a tie with RU (1-0 H2H), lose a tie with IU (0-2 H2H), win a tie with RU (1-0 H2H), and lose a tie with PSU (0-2 H2H).
If the Illini win out they will finish 9-11. That could be as good as tied with MN for 7th/8th or as bad as tied with RU for 9th/10th.
If the Illini split their last two they will finish 8-12. That could be as good as tied with tOSU for 8th/9th or as bad as tied with RU and IU for 9th/10th/11th.
If the Illini lose out they will finish 7-13. That could be as good as tied with the IU/RU loser for 10/11th or as bad as tied with PSU for 11th/12th.
6-12 Indiana (@IL, vRU):
Indiana's case is interesting because their two remaining games are against the two teams immediately ahead of them in the standings. If Indiana loses either game, they cannot tie the team that they lost to. The Hoosiers would win a tie with tOSU (record against MSU), win a tie with RU (record against MSU), win a tie with IL (2-0 H2H), win a tie with PSU (1-0 H2H), and lose a tie with UNL (0-1 H2H).
If the Hoosiers win out that will necessarily give the Illini and Scarlet Knights each a 12th loss. The Hoosiers would finish 8-12. That could be as good as tied with tOSU for 8th/9th (tOSU would win the tie but it would only determine jersey color for the 8/9 game). Conversely, 8-12 could be as bad as tied with RU and IL for 9th/10th/11th.
If the Hoosiers split their last two they will finish 7-13. They would be behind whichever team they lost to and no better than tied with the team they defeated. That could be as good as tied with RU/IL for 9th/10th or as bad as tied with Penn State for 10th/11th.
If the Hoosiers lose out they will finish 6-14. That could be as good as 11th or as bad as tied with UNL for 12th/13th.
5-13 Penn State (@RU, vIL):
The Nittany Lions would win a tie with RU (record against M), win a tie with IL (2-0 H2H), lose a tie with IU (0-1 H2H), win a tie with UNL (record against M), and win a tie with NU (1-0 H2H).
If the Nittany Lions win out they will finish 7-13. That could be tied with RU and IL or ahead of IU but it can't be both because in order for that to be tied with RU and IL the Hoosiers would also have to win out. Thus, the best-case-scenario for the Nittany Lions would be to finish 7-13 and tied with RU and IL for 10th/11th/12th.
If the Nittany Lions split their last two games they will finish 6-14. That could be as good as tied with IU for 11th/12th or as bad as tied with UNL for 12th/13th.
If the Nittany Lions lose out they will finish 5-15. That could be as good as tied with UNL for 12th/13th or as bad as tied with PSU for 13th/14th.
5-14 Nebraska (vIA):
The Cornhuskers would win a tie with IU (1-0 H2H), lose a tie with PSU (record against M), and win a tie with NU (1-0 H2H).
If the Cornhuskers beat Iowa they will finish 6-14. That could be as good as tied with IU for 11th/12th or as bad as alone in 13th place.
If the Cornhuskers lose to Iowa they will finish 5-15. That could be as good as tied with PSU for 12th/13th or as bad as tied with NU for 13th/14th.
3-15 Northwestern (vtOSU, vPU):
The Wildcats are the first team to officially clinch a seed in the BTT. The best they could do is to tie PSU and/OR UNL for the bottom two or three spots but the Wildcats are 0-season against the Nittany Lions and Cornhuskers so they lose any tie and will get the #14 seed regardless. The Wildcats will play #11 at 9pm on Wednesday, March 13 in the United Center.
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Forgot to post yesterday.
Massey composite rankings (67 rankings), with last week in parenthesis (does not include Monday or Tuesday games)...
- Virginia (2)
- Duke (1)
- Gonzaga (3)
- North Carolina (4)
- Tennessee (7)
- MICHIGAN STATE (6)
- MICHIGAN (8)
- Kentucky (5)
- Texas Tech (9)
- PURDUE (11)
- Kansas (12)
- Houston (10)
- Virginia Tech (16)
- LSU (14)
- Florida State (18)
- Buffalo (20)
- WISCONSIN (17)
- Nevada (15)
- Marquette (13)
- Iowa State (21)
- Auburn (24)
- Villanova (-)
- Mississippi State (-)
- Kansas State (22)
- MARYLAND (19)
- 32. Iowa (27)
- 39. Ohio State (40)
- 45. Minnesota (46)
- 50. Indiana (60)
- 55. Nebraska (49)
- 58. Penn State (63)
- 76. Rutgers (88)
- 86. Illinois (86)
- 99. Northwestern (90)
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OSU basketball makes MSU football look like OSU football
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Bucks on pace for about 10 points in the entire game. On a sidenote, the guy who yells "what" in the insurance commercials lived in my dorm freshman year.
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1 of 14 from the field, rough start for the Bucks.
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Rutgers. OK then. OSU? WTF?
FU Marquette. Always, and forever, Goldies. Always.
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Rutgers. OK then. OSU? WTF?
FU Marquette. Always, and forever, Goldies. Always.
That was a very quick collapse tonight. They've somehow gone from overachieving to underachieving in like two weeks
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Bucks shoot a scintillating 14 percent in the first half
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Ohio State seems to have improved from dreadful to merely awful. If they can advance to bad they should be able to pull this out.
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Ohio State seems to have improved from dreadful to merely awful. If they can advance to bad they should be able to pull this out.
OSU got to 5 for one possession, but The Bucks seem content to trade baskets with NW, and when you start 10 down you stay 10 down for the game.
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Remember when we had 10 tourney teams? If Minnesota had finished off their gag last night, we might be down to 6 now.
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Ohio State seems to have improved from dreadful to merely awful. If they can advance to bad they should be able to pull this out.
Ugh!
Nevermind.
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I am glad that I accidentally forgot to watch this game.
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So the Badgers play Iowa tonight. Iowa has no Fran. Game is in Madison. Senior night. 4th place still on the line for UW. I will not be able to watch it.
Iowa should win then, no?
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I have no doubt that the Kaleb Wesson suspension hurt but it doesn't explain the Buckeyes' inability to hit the broad side of a barn. Woods and Washington combined for ~60 minutes and 26 points on 9-26 shooting (35%). That is actually the good news. Here are the stats for other guys who played significant minutes:
- 30 mins, A. Wesson, 2 points on 0-8 shooting with a turnover and 4 fouls.
- 29 mins, L. Muhammad, 3 points on 0-4 shooting with two turnovers.
- 26 mins, K. Young, 7 points on 3-5 shooting with three turnovers and three fouls.
- 25 mins, C.J. Jackson, 9 points on 4-11 shooting with a turnover.
- 23 mins, J. Aherns, 3 points on 1-7 shooting with a turnover.
Overall the Buckeyes shot <27% and <16% from behind the arc. That doesn't even rise to the level of pathetic.
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So the Badgers play Iowa tonight. Iowa has no Fran. Game is in Madison. Senior night. 4th place still on the line for UW. I will not be able to watch it.
Iowa should win then, no?
Probably. This ending sets well for UW. Two super vulnerable teams. So naturally I won’t believe in wins til the final buzzer.
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I think my ideal scenario for MSU is to win Saturday to win a share of the conference title, win Friday to avoid anything resembling a bad loss, and then get eliminated Saturday by either Maryland or Wisconsin and get ready for the tourney.
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So the Badgers play Iowa tonight. Iowa has no Fran. Game is in Madison. Senior night. 4th place still on the line for UW. I will not be able to watch it.
Iowa should win then, no?
There's no possible way Iowa wins. No way whatsoever.
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A joke around Michigan corners is how could someone possibly say this and also elitely recruit as if he loves his job.
https://twitter.com/CBBonFOX/status/1101985957899788288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1101985957899788288&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fmgoblog.com%2F
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B1G Bubble Watch:
A week or so ago Iowa looked to be "probably a lock" and Ohio State looked to be "should be in". Then Ohio State ran Iowa out of the gym in Columbus and that didn't look like too big of a deal for the Hawkeyes but seemed to solidify Ohio State's NCAA chances.
Since then Iowa lost at home to Rutgers and the Buckeyes have looked like hot garbage in their two games without the indefinitely suspended Kaleb Wesson.
Iowa is still "probably a lock" because the worst they could possibly do is 10-11/21-11 and that would probably still get them in but finishing up by losing five straight and six of seven can't be good. I know that "last 10 games" is no longer an official consideration but I can't honestly believe that the every committee member is going to completely ignore trajectory. At a minimum, Iowa's slide will severely diminish their seed. In Lunardi's latest projection they are down to a #9 seed.
Ohio State's chances, meanwhile, are now on life support. After the Iowa win the worldwide leader's bubble watch analysis suggested that Ohio State *might* be a lock because their worst case scenario of 8-12/18-13 might get the job done. I don't believe that in part because it failed to account for an early BTT exit. Nonetheless, Ohio State appears to be determined to test the limits of that theory as they have just looked flat awful in their last two games. They were only competitive for the first few minutes in West Lafayette before Purdue ran them out of the gym and then they never even held a lead (or tie other than 0-0) in Evanston against a team that came in on a 10-game losing streak.
Minnesota is now looking possibly more likely than Ohio State to make the tournament and Indiana might have a shot as well.
That brings us to tonight's games:
Iowa at Wisconsin:
The Hawkeyes have got to reverse this slide but winning in Madison is no small feat and clearly if they look like the team that lost in Columbus and lost at home to Rutgers, they can't do it. If Iowa can't pull this one off then it will be nearly impossible for them to get off of the 7-10 seed line where game #2 involves a nearly impossible task. Furthermore, if the Hawkeyes lose this and then lose in Lincoln this weekend they'll be edging dangerously close to bubble territory. Bubble territory is great when you are moving up into it, but it is not great at all when a few weeks ago you looked like a #6 seed.
Indiana at Illinois:
The Jeckyll and Hyde Hoosiers take their circus on the road to Champaign where they desperately need a win. Indiana has loads of quality wins, far more "quad 1" wins than any other team with a record like theirs but the problem is that record. The same Indiana team that swept Michigan State, beat Wisconsin, beat Louisville, and beat Marquette has 14 losses and is only one game over .500. Their problem is bad losses. They lost to an Arkansas team that is well below .500 in the SEC, they lost at home to Nebraska (admittedly that looked better at the time), they lost at Northwestern, they lost at Rutgers, and they lost at home to Ohio State. There is a point at which bad losses swamp quality wins and Indiana is dangerously close to that point. I'm not sure that they can afford even one more bad loss. It would be in their best interests not to find out.
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Might be a blessing in disguise. OSU has some reinforcements coming in next year, so it would probably behoove the returning players to experience making a run in the NIT instead of being one and done in the big dance. Now I say that knowing full well that there is a pretty good chance that they could also be one and done in the NIT, but that is obviously a lot less of a lock than being a ten seed or whatever in the NCAA Tourney.
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LINK (https://michigan.rivals.com/news/michigan-basketball-ntsb-pilots-saved-100-plus-wolverines-two-years-ago)
The National Transportation Safety Board report is finally out on the Michigan MBB team's plane crash in 2017. At 187MPH, it sounds like those 116 people were lucky to have the pilot they did. I won't copy/paste the whole thing, but the key excerpt from the link above begins:
"Contributing to the survivability of the accident..."
Scary. To think that moment was one link in a chain to the national championship game, rather than any of the other places it could have gone.
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At the under-8 timeout in the second half, Iowa, owner of the 11th rated offense in the land, is at .58 points per possession.
This is weird to say, but Fran for COY?
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At the under-8 timeout in the second half, Iowa, owner of the 11th rated offense in the land, is at .58 points per possession.
This is weird to say, but Fran for COY?
Seriously, they have looked like hot garbage without him.
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LINK (https://michigan.rivals.com/news/michigan-basketball-ntsb-pilots-saved-100-plus-wolverines-two-years-ago)
The National Transportation Safety Board report is finally out on the Michigan MBB team's plane crash in 2017. At 187MPH, it sounds like those 116 people were lucky to have the pilot they did. I won't copy/paste the whole thing, but the key excerpt from the link above begins:
"Contributing to the survivability of the accident..."
Scary. To think that moment was one link in a chain to the national championship game, rather than any of the other places it could have gone.
Why was the plane so huge for a basketball team?
Were they bringing the entire Marching Band?
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/FtbR04TbmNY/maxresdefault.jpg)
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Man alive Iowa is petty as hell. It's kinda impressive.
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Cal was set to be the worst P5 team of the KenPom era, 4-22 overall, 0-15 in a horrible Pac 12. Now about to pick up their third straight win. Go figure
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Cal was set to be the worst P5 team of the KenPom era, 4-22 overall, 0-15 in a horrible Pac 12. Now about to pick up their third straight win. Go figure
Cal basketball is historically weird
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Iowa's performance last night was the worst on offense in the KenPom era. That's kinda amazing.
Also, happy to see Aleem Ford have a nice day. He's been struggle-y this year, but they'll need him next season.
I'll write up something on 20 wins at some point, but for the moment, I'll worry about OSU just because of the 2017 game.
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Why was the plane so huge for a basketball team?
Were they bringing the entire Marching Band?
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/FtbR04TbmNY/maxresdefault.jpg)
I don't know the guest list. It could have included basketball band members. I recall that it definitely included family members. And, of course, some administrators.
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I think my ideal scenario for MSU is to win Saturday to win a share of the conference title, win Friday to avoid anything resembling a bad loss, and then get eliminated Saturday by either Maryland or Wisconsin and get ready for the tourney.
I think you guys should hang a Big Ten Championship banner in the rafters before the game on Saturday.
You know.....just in case. :72:
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I think you guys should hang a Big Ten Championship banner in the rafters before the game on Saturday.
You know.....just in case. :72:
Well, I mean, someone is winning one Saturday night
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Each team has one and only one game this weekend (Fri-Sun) and then we head to Chicago for the BTT. Here are all of the various BTT seed possibilities:
The #1 seed: M/MSU winner
The #2 seed: Purdue (if they win at NU), M/MSU loser if PU loses
The #3 seed: M/MSU loser if PU wins, PU if PU loses
The #4 seed: Wisconsin unless they lose (@tOSU) and UMD wins (vMN), in that case Maryland
The #5 seed: Maryland unless they win and UW loses, in that case Wisconsin
The #6 seed: Iowa unless they lose (@UNL) and MN wins (@UMD), in that case Minnesota
The #7 seed:
- Iowa if Iowa loses (@UNL) and Minnesota wins (@UMD)
- Minnesota if they win and Iowa wins
- Minnesota if they lose and Ohio State loses
- Ohio State if they win (vUW) and Minnesota loses (@UMD)
The #8 seed, if Ohio State wins (vUW):
- Minnesota if they lose (@UMD)
- Ohio State if MN wins
The #9 seed if Ohio State wins (if tOSU wins then they and MN will be 7/8): The IU/RU winner and IL (if they win (@PSU) will be 9th or tied for 9th/10th. In the case of a tie:
- Indiana/Illinois: Indiana wins (9 seed), Illinois loses (10 seed)
- Rutgers/Illinois: Illinois wins (9 seed), Rutgers loses (10 seed)
If Ohio State loses then things get really complicated. IU/RU are tied one game behind Ohio State. Thus, if Ohio State loses they will tie with the IU/RU winner. Additionally, Illinois would join that tie if they win (@PSU). Thus, there are four potential ties if Ohio State loses:
- Ohio State/Indiana: Ohio State wins based on H2H (1-0) (8 seed), Indiana loses (9 seed)
- Ohio State/Rutgers: Ohio State wins based on record against Minnesota (8 seed), Rutgers loses (9 seed)
- Ohio State/Indiana/Illinois: Indiana wins (8 seed), Ohio State is second (9 seed), Illinois is last (10 seed)
- Ohio State/Rutgers/Illinois: Illinois wins (8 seed), Ohio State is second (9 seed), Rutgers is last (10 seed)
All of the possibilities involving Illinois winning are covered above. If the Illini lose then they will tie with the IU/RU loser and PSU for 10th/11th/12th. Here is how those ties would break:
- Illinois/Penn State/Indiana: Indiana wins (10 seed), Penn State is second (11 seed), Illinois is last (12 seed)
- Illinois/Penn State/ Rutgers: Penn State wins (10 seed), Rutgers is second (11 seed), Illinois is last (12 seed)
The #12 seed if Illinois wins (If Illinois loses to PSU then PSU, IL, and the IU/RU loser will tie for 10/11/12, see above). If Illinois wins then PSU, UNL, and NU will be 12/13/14): Penn State (either by finishing ahead of UNL or by winning the tiebreaker with UNL based on record against Michigan).
The #13 seed: Nebraska. This is a done deal. The best Nebraska can do is a tie with Illinois for 12th/13th and they lose that tie based on record against Michigan. The worst Nebraska can do is a tie with NU for 13th/14th and they win that tie based on H2H.
The #14 seed: Northwestern. The best the Wildcats can do is a tie with Nebraska and they lose that tie.
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No Wesson on Sunday.
Badgers, please don't eff this up.
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By team instead of seed:
Michigan/Michigan State:
- #1 if they win
- #2 If they lose and PU loses
- #3 if they lose and PU wins
Purdue:
- #2 if they win
- #3 if they lose.
Wisconsin:
- #4 if they win or UMD loses
- #5 if they lose and UMD wins
Maryland:
- #4 if they win and UW loses
- #5 if they lose or UW wins
Iowa:
- #6 if they win or MN loses
- #7 if they lose and MN wins
Minnesota:
- #6 if they win and IA loses.
- #7 if they win and IA wins or if they lose and tOSU loses.
- #8 if they lose and tOSU wins.
Ohio State:
- #7 if they win and MN loses.
- #8 if they win and MN wins or if they lose and IL loses.
- #9 if they lose and IL wins.
Indiana:
- #8 if they win and tOSU loses and IL wins
- #9 if they win and tOSU wins or if they win and tOSU loses and IL loses or if they lose and IL wins
- #10 if they lose
Rutgers:
- #9 if they win and IL loses
- #10 if they win and IL wins
- #11 if they lose
Illinois:
- #9 if they win and RU wins and tOSU wins
- #10 if they win and IU wins or if they win and RU wins and tOSU loses
- #12 if they lose
Penn State:
- #10 if they win and RU loses
- #11 if they win IU loses
- #12 if they lose
Nebraska: #13
Northwestern: #14
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Okay. So if I understand Medina correctly I have to employ the following rooting interests in order to A) have someone other than Michigan win the regular season title, and B) have OSU on the same branch of the bracket as Michigan (yes, I have a death wish).
So we essentially need Michigan as a two seed and OSU as a seven seed.
So I have to root for MSU to beat Michigan (of course), OSU to beat Wisconsin (Oh gawd), Northwestern to beat Purdue (this is starting to unravel rather hastily) and Maryland over Minnesota (not all that far fetched).
I'm in.
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I have no doubt that the Kaleb Wesson suspension hurt but it doesn't explain the Buckeyes' inability to hit the broad side of a barn. Woods and Washington combined for ~60 minutes and 26 points on 9-26 shooting (35%). That is actually the good news. Here are the stats for other guys who played significant minutes:
- 30 mins, A. Wesson, 2 points on 0-8 shooting with a turnover and 4 fouls.
- 29 mins, L. Muhammad, 3 points on 0-4 shooting with two turnovers.
- 26 mins, K. Young, 7 points on 3-5 shooting with three turnovers and three fouls.
- 25 mins, C.J. Jackson, 9 points on 4-11 shooting with a turnover.
- 23 mins, J. Aherns, 3 points on 1-7 shooting with a turnover.
Overall the Buckeyes shot <27% and <16% from behind the arc. That doesn't even rise to the level of pathetic.
Wesson and Muhammad infuriated me during the game.
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Maryland back to being pretty solid, Minnesota showing no sign of whatever happened earlier this week. Is 22-9 pretty good for Maryland?
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Maryland back to being pretty solid, Minnesota showing no sign of whatever happened earlier this week. Is 22-9 pretty good for Maryland?
Considering how infuriating they have been to watch with all the turnovers, lack of rebounding when the ball touches their hands (I realize they are a good rebounding team, but too many went through our hands as well), the 3's shot by non-3-point-shooting players, and many missed layups, I'm pretty happy with it.
Could only be happier if Ohio State wins.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1LyMAIWoAEr5eH.jpg)
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Wesson and Muhammad infuriated me during the game.
Not surprising considering that you effectively played better in that game than they did. You had the same number of FG's, less turnovers, and less fouls.
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By team instead of seed:
Michigan/Michigan State:
- #1 if they win
- #2 If they lose and PU loses
- #3 if they lose and PU wins
Purdue:
- #2 if they win
- #3 if they lose.
Wisconsin:
- #4 if they win
- #5 if they lose
Maryland:
- #4 if UW loses
- #5 if UW wins
Iowa:
Minnesota:
- #7 if tOSU loses.
- #8 if tOSU wins.
Ohio State:
- #7 if they win.
- #8 if they lose and IL loses.
- #9 if they lose and IL wins.
Indiana:
- #8 if they win and tOSU loses and IL wins
- #9 if they win and tOSU wins or if they win and tOSU loses and IL loses or if they lose and IL wins
- #10 if they lose
Rutgers:
- #9 if they win and IL loses
- #10 if they win and IL wins
- #11 if they lose
Illinois:
- #9 if they win and RU wins and tOSU wins
- #10 if they win and IU wins or if they win and RU wins and tOSU loses
- #12 if they lose
Penn State:
- #10 if they win and RU loses
- #11 if they win IU loses
- #12 if they lose
Nebraska: #13
Northwestern: #14
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NC State:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/report-former-nc-state-assistant-claims-mark-gottfried-was-in-on-payments-to-dennis-smith-jr-s-family/
LSU:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/lsu-coach-will-wade-discussed-an-offer-to-a-recruit-with-a-key-figure-in-corruption-trial-on-a-wiretap-a-report-says/
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Damn, that Purdue loss made today so much more stressful. I was totally cool with a split with UM, partixpartic once Ward got hurt, felt like a pipe dream. But now that it's for a Big Ten title, I'm feeling more greedy
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Bruce Pearl is a clown
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What is going on with Northwestesterns uniforms? It's like their version of the 90s Grizzlies uniforms, but with a pretentious gothic font for the names on the back?
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I'm an admitted cliff's notes college hoops viewer but this has to be the most interesting SEC hoops season in a long time. Lots of sideshows and drama.
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I'm an admitted cliff's notes college hoops viewer but this has to be the most interesting SEC hoops season in a long time. Lots of sideshows and drama.
SEC plays hoops? really?
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Congrats to the Boilers.
Really hope Vic Law's injury is less serious than it looked to need to be carried off the court. Always hate to see that.
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(https://media1.tenor.com/images/aa1df3365e2d3c3c7ee5c9154f6f5458/tenor.gif?itemid=4835499)
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Purdue has locked up the #2 seed. They join #6 Iowa, #13 Nebraska, and #14 Northwestern in knowing their seed. We'll learn #1 and #3 in a couple hours.
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This floor smacking crap is out of hand.
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Another dominant second half for Sparty
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Is Indiana-OSU a play in game?
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No Daum, no Clemons in the tourney. Tough to argue these things are fixed
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This floor smacking crap is out of hand.
Ohhhhhhhhhh was it good.
KISS THE FLOOR CHAMPS.
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BTT seeds by team, updated for Saturday's results:
Michigan State: #1
Purdue: #2
Michigan: #3
Wisconsin:
- #4 if they win (@tOSU)
- #5 if they lose
Maryland:
- #4 if UW loses (@tOSU)
- #5 if UW wins
Iowa: #6
Minnesota:
- #7 if tOSU loses (vUW)
- #8 if tOSU wins
Ohio State:
- #7 if they win (vUW)
- #8 if they lose and IL loses (@PSU)
- #9 if they lose and IL wins
Indiana:
- #8 if they win (vRU) and tOSU loses (vUW) and IL wins (@PSU)
- #9 if they win and tOSU wins or if they win and tOSU loses and IL loses or if they lose and IL wins
- #10 if they lose and IL loses
Rutgers:
- #9 if they win (@IU) and IL loses (@PSU)
- #10 if the win and IL wins
- #11 if they lose
Illinois:
- #9 if they win (@PSU) and RU wins (@IU) and tOSU wins (vUW)
- #10 if they win and IU wins or if they win and RU wins and tOSU loses
- #12 if they lose
Penn State:
- #10 if they win (vIL) and RU loses (@IU)
- #11 if they win and IU loses
- #12 if they lose
Nebraska: #13
Northwestern: #14
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Is Indiana-OSU a play in game?
First off, IU/tOSU isn't a given to happen. If Ohio State wins (vUW) or if IU loses (vRU) then it will not. However, it will happen either if tOSU wins and IU loses (the 7/10 game) or if tOSU loses and IU wins (the 8/9 game).
I agree with you, it seems very likely to happen and if it does, it is probably a play-in game.
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I won't be able to watch again today, as we're about to head to the marina and get on the boat.
On, Wisconsin! Bring home the #4.
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I won't be able to watch again today, as we're about to head to the marina and get on the boat.
On, Wisconsin! Bring home the #4.
I won't be able to watch again today, as we're about to head to the marina and get on the boat.
On, Wisconsin! Bring home the #4.
Your team should not have much trouble. Ohio State has looked awful without Wesson.
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Your team should not have much trouble. Ohio State has looked awful without Wesson.
If OSU wants to keep that up, I’ll take it. But I’ll long rue that effin 2017 game when a meh OSU team helped knock UW from the conference title race.
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Forgot we only added Kenny Goins as a walk on just do get a biggish body, after Swanigan flipped to Purdue. Easily the best walk on in MSU history I believe?
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So there's no question on Winston for POY, right?
Also, has anyone has as weird an arc as Nick Ward?
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Credit to Sparty. It was basically the same game all over again, and for whatever reason Michigan didn't adjust.... Hopefully Matthews will be ready for the BigTen Tournament....
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The currently ongoing Iowa/Nebraska game has no impact on seeding. Iowa will finish alone in sixth place and Nebraska will finish alone in 13th place either way.
If Wisconsin wins they finish alone in fourth place. If they lose they tie with Maryland for 4th/5th. Wisconsin loses that tie.
Depending on whether they win or lose tOSU will either tie with MN for 7th/8th or tie with IU for 8th/9th. Ohio State wins either tie.
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BTT seeds:
- Michigan State
- Purdue
- Michigan
- Wisconsin (if they beat tOSU, otherwise UMD)
- Maryland (unless tOSU beats UW, then UW)
- Iowa
- Minnesota (unless tOSU wins, then tOSU)
- Ohio State (unless they beay UW, then MN)
- Indiana
- Penn State
- Rutgers
- Illinois
- Nebraska
- Northwestern
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<br />(https://i.ibb.co/qDWd2Hn/20190310-142610.jpg) (https://ibb.co/qDWd2Hn)<br />
Was shopping for bar stools at an antique mall. $7 for this beaut.
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<br />(https://i.ibb.co/qDWd2Hn/20190310-142610.jpg) (https://ibb.co/qDWd2Hn)<br />
Was shopping for bar stools at an antique mall. $7 for this beaut.
Probably resale from a Minnesota fan, since it never happened.
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OSU-Indy would be alright. Maybe break out The General on the sideline.
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Wait Iowa choked? Feels like the third time maybe they've had a February/March collapse under Fran.
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After five minutes on pace for a 32-0 final score. Bucks a perfect 0-11 from the field
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A Liberty player just committed the greatest flop I've ever seen in a basketball game.
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Wow!
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Unbelievable run by the short handed Buckeyes. They looked completely finished trailing by 23 at one point, now it is tied and Ohio State has the ball.
-
Wow!
Wisconsin about to pull a Maryland.
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Holy crap, OT
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That was one improbable comeback to force the OT.
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Buckeyes just need to slap the floor to let Wisconsin know they mean business.
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Ohio State finished by losing six of their last eight.
Iowa finished by losing five of their last six.
Those two teams looked like easily tournament teams a while ago. Now Ohio State is questionable at best and Iowa is only slightly better.
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Buckeyes just need to slap the floor to let Wisconsin know they mean business.
Last time they tried that, their best player separated his shoulder doing it
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Ohio State finished by losing six of their last eight.
Iowa finished by losing five of their last six.
Those two teams looked like easily tournament teams a while ago. Now Ohio State is questionable at best and Iowa is only slightly better.
MSU had so many wins that felt big at the time, that turned out...meh. At OSU, H/A iowa, at Nebraska
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1VRMMmW0AAFqti.jpg)
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If OSU wants to keep that up, I’ll take it. But I’ll long rue that effin 2017 game when a meh OSU team helped knock UW from the conference title race.
Medina, you ALMOST had me. Almost.
That game was deeply unpleasant. The 22 and nine is pretty good, especially with the top 10 schedule. It’s also a reminder this UW team still isn’t on the most stable ground.
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Is Indiana-OSU a play in game?
According to Lunardi the Buckeyes (8-12/18-13) are currently the last team in, projected to face NCST in Dayton for the right to be a #12 seed and face Marquette in Hartford. Meanwhile the Hoosiers (8-12/17-14) are the first team out.
If Lunardi is right then it would appear that the #8 tOSU/#9 IU game is effectively an NCAA Tournament game in that the winner is in and the loser is out.
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If Indiana wins, what are the odds they take down Sparty again?? 😂
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Wait Iowa choked? Feels like the third time maybe they've had a February/March collapse under Fran.
the Hawk fans I know think it's the 4th or 5th time. Ready to move on from Fran
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What do you guys think are the most and least important games of the BTT?
IMHO, the IU/tOSU game is the most important and the other 12 are tied for least important.
My thinking on that is that I think IU/tOSU is probably for an NCAA Tournament spot.
IMHO the top five seeds (MSU, PU, M, UW, UMD) are all locks while #6 and #7 (IA and MN) are probably locks as well. Then I think that #10 through #14 would probably need to win the whole thing to get in. That leaves #8 Ohio State and #9 Indiana.
Outside of that I don't think anybody is probably even playing for an important likely seed improvement.
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Michigan is definitely playing to avoid a 3 seed and at least get back to a 2 seed now, and I think they'd get a 1 seed if they win it (Gonzaga and probably Virginia will be 1 seeds but the others are open)..... Same goes for Sparty and to a lesser extent Purdue, whose non-con losses hold them back.
If Matthews can play major minutes if needed (even if he's the 6th man behind Livers and Brazdeikis, that's still good), I like Michigan's chances. Obviously, Simpson and Teske have been part of two BTT-winning teams despite playing 4 games in 4 days including the first one after the plane crash. The other main players aside from Brazdeikis were on the team last year, too..... The matchups appear favorable, too, with Sparty and Wisconsin on the other side (yes, Iowa beat Michigan, too, but that was in Iowa City when Castleton finally got his first real playing time backing up Teske, who had 2 early fouls that game, and I'm not sure they'll even win on Thursday with the way they're playing of late). Michigan still matches up well with Purdue, too, even considering their improvement since December.
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Couple of great endings tonight in the CAA and Horizon semis
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Michigan is definitely playing to avoid a 3 seed and at least get back to a 2 seed now, and I think they'd get a 1 seed if they win it (Gonzaga and probably Virginia will be 1 seeds but the others are open)..... Same goes for Sparty and to a lesser extent Purdue, whose non-con losses hold them back.
If Matthews can play major minutes if needed (even if he's the 6th man behind Livers and Brazdeikis, that's still good), I like Michigan's chances. Obviously, Simpson and Teske have been part of two BTT-winning teams despite playing 4 games in 4 days including the first one after the plane crash. The other main players aside from Brazdeikis were on the team last year, too..... The matchups appear favorable, too, with Sparty and Wisconsin on the other side (yes, Iowa beat Michigan, too, but that was in Iowa City when Castleton finally got his first real playing time backing up Teske, who had 2 early fouls that game, and I'm not sure they'll even win on Thursday with the way they're playing of late). Michigan still matches up well with Purdue, too, even considering their improvement since December.
Thank you for replying.
I meant the question on a "per game" rather than a "per team" basis. I think your answer is more "per team". Ie, when you say that you think Michigan, and Purdue are playing to avoid a #3 seed I think that they might be, but not in one game.
I also disagree with your assessment of the B1G's chances of getting a #1 seed. I think that MSU is our best chance for that with Michigan a distant second and Purdue having essentially no chance. MSU, IMHO, would need to win the BTT and they would still need some help. Michigan's chances, IMHO, are quite slim. In addition to winning the BTT, I think that they would need multiple unlikely results in other conferences.
That said, I hadn't realized it until you pointed it out, but Michigan does appear to have a strongly favorable BTT draw. I agree with you on Iowa, I think that it is at least 50/50 that they'll lose to the IL/NU winner. Even if not, the Hawkeyes are just not a quality team right now. All of that means that the Wolverines are just one upset (PSU/MN over PU) away from being able to get into the B1GCG without playing any strong opposition.
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Gonzaga and Virginia seem pretty locked in to 1 seeds. If Duke makes a run with a healthy Zion, they are probably a 1 too. Kentucky and Tennessee still in contention based on their tourney. So it will be tough.
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Also, I suppose Houston should be considered - they are 29-2 and sitting 4th in NET ranking.
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Gonzaga and Virginia seem pretty locked in to 1 seeds. If Duke makes a run with a healthy Zion, they are probably a 1 too. Kentucky and Tennessee still in contention based on their tourney. So it will be tough.
Also, I suppose Houston should be considered - they are 29-2 and sitting 4th in NET ranking.
While I personally believe that teams should have very strong SoS to get a #1 seed, as a practical matter that will not necessarily prevail and I agree with your assessment. I don't think any B1G team aside from MAYBE MSU could get a #1 seed this year and even MSU would need some help.
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) Any chance you could look at our tier projections from the beginning of the season, perhaps again midway through the season, and at the end of the season, to see how much things changed?
I know you said you don't normally track changes through the year, but given that you've posted in this thread with updates for basically preseason [or perhaps after the 2 December games], I recall you posting around the midpoint (all teams between 9 and 11 games played), and now we're at the end...
I think it would be a useful thing to track how much our projections from start of the season to the end are accurate.
I went ahead and did this for @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) and anyone else who is interested in reviewing how accurate our projections were or were not. I used my updates from within this thread and checked us three times. All of my dates are BEFORE any games played on that date.
- January 7: At this point I think all teams were about four games into conference play with about 16 to go.
- January 28: At this point I think all teams were about 10 games into conference play with about 10 to go.
- February 15: At this point I think all teams were about 14 games into conference play with about six to go.
Here is the comparison:
Team | 1/7 check | 1/28 check | 2/15 check | 7-Jan | 28-Jan | 15-Feb | Actual |
Purdue | -3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
MSU | -1 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 16 |
M | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 15 |
UW | 0 | -3 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 14 |
UMD | -3 | -1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
Iowa | -2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
Minny | -2 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
tOSU | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
IU | 7 | 1 | -3 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 8 |
ILL | -3 | -2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 7 |
RU | -4 | -3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
PSU | -3 | -6 | -4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
UNL | 7 | 4 | -1 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 6 |
NU | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Explaining this chart:
- Team: This is obviously the team, as indicated.
- 1/7 check: This is our projected number of wins as of January 7 minus the team's actual final total B1G wins. Example: Purdue ended up with 16 wins and on January 7 we projected that they would have 13, 13-16=-3.
- 1/28 check: This is our projected number of wins as of January 28 minus the team's actual final total B1G wins. Example: Purdue ended up with 16 wins and on January 28 we projected that they would have 17, 17-16=1.
- 2/15 check: This is our projected number of wins as of February 15 minus the team's actual final total B1G wins. Example: Purdue ended up with 16 wins and on February 15 we projected that they would have 17, 17-16=1.
- 7-Jan: Our projected number of B1G wins for each team as indicated as of January 7.
- 28-Jan: Our projected number of B1G wins for each team as indicated as of January 28.
- 15-Feb: Our projected number of B1G wins for each team as indicated as of February 15.
- Actual: The final actual number of B1G wins for each team as indicated.
Positive and Negative:
- Negative numbers indicate that we undervalued a team. For example in the 1/7 check column Purdue has a "-3". That indicates that we undervalued them by three games (note that at about that time I was being told by some Purdue fan that I should move Purdue to a LOWER tier.
- Positive numbers indicate that we overvalued a team. For example in the 1/7 check column Michigan has a "2". That indicates that we overvalued them by two games.
Some thoughts:
First, as one would expect, we got more accurate as the season progressed. If you sum the absolute value of the 1/7 check column you get 42. Ie, as of 1/7 we were off by a grand total of 42 games. By January 28 this figure was down to 30 and by February 15 it was down to 20.
As of January 7 we were dead on for Wisconsin. We were also +/-3 for all other teams except four:
- We were WAY OFF on Indiana. We were projecting 15 wins and they only ended up with eight. I think our projection was reasonable based on their OOC wins over Lousiville and Marquette.
- We were WAY OFF on Nebraska. We were projecting 13 wins and they only ended up with six. I think Nebraska was a better team prior to the injury.
- We were off on Ohio State. We were projecting 12 wins and they only ended up with eight. The Buckeyes started January on a five-game losing streak and the projection was quickly adjusted to what turned out to be very accurate.
- We were off on Rutgers. We were projecting three wins and they ended up with seven. I think that Rutgers improved over the course of the season and our projections eventually reflected that.
As of January 28 we were dead on for Iowa and Minnesota. We were also +/-1 for four more teams (total of six teams within +/-1), +/-2 for two more teams (total of eight teams within +/-2), and four more within +/-3. We were only off by more than three games on two teams:
- We were WAY OFF on Penn State. We were projecting only one win and they ended up with seven. Prior to that Penn State seemed to have a knack for losing close games so we dropped them a few tiers but they corrected it later.
- We were off on Nebraska. We were projecting 10 wins and they only ended up with six. This was during the adjustment period as Nebraska regressed.
As of February 15 we were dead on for Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Rutgers. We were also +/-1 for five teams (total of nine within +/-1). The other five were:
- We were off on Penn State. We were projecting three wins and they ended up with six.
- We were off on Indiana. We were projecting five wins and they ended up with eight. They finished REALLY strong.
- We were off on Iowa. We were projecting 13 wins and they only ended up with 10. They finished REALLY weak.
- We were off on Illinois. We were projecting 10 wins and they only ended up with seven. They finished REALLY weak.
- We were off on Minnesota. We were projecting seven wins and they ended up with nine. They finished REALLY strong.
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Good stuff, Medina...
I think PSU is a really interesting team, and I'm not excited to play them Friday if they knock off Minnesota. Bart Torvik has them as the 6th-best team in the country efficiency-wise in the last 10 games. They look like the type of team that COULD actually make a heck of a run through the BTT.
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So, UW went 22-9. That's maybe in the realm I was thinking, hoping they'd land, but I thought the schedule wouldn't be quite so daunting. Im happy with it.
I try to write this every year, but 20 wins is an important number. Outside Nebraska last year, it gets you dancing most often. It's a sign the program is on stable ground that year. Some years 20 comes on the way to something greater. Sometimes it comes at the end, providing a sigh of relief. But I've seen 20 all but two years as a UW fan, and the two years before I took this up. Last year, I missed that consistency, this year I see a return, and unless losing Happ and Iverson just ruins things, the return of seven Big Ten rotation players should mean another 20 the next couple years.
It's just nice is all.
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So I'm watching the Summit League title game. A 17-15 North Dakota State team is up on second-seeded Omaha. Someone not there is Mike Daum. The three-time Summit League player of the year is not playing. His team went home (well, I think home is near the arena where this is happening), courtesy of an upset loss to a then-9-win Western Illinois team. SDSU fell behind, a 78-percent FT shooter missed two in the final to minutes to stop a late rally, and the team that won the conference and was five games ahead of the third-place team will go to the NIT.
And all I could think of was Alec Peters.
For those who don't recall, Peters was a monster for Valpo. As a sophomore, he had the Crusaders in the dance, pushing Maryland to the limit. He shot 85 percent from the line, 46.7 percent from 3 and was a good big for a good defensive team. The next year, he was better, 18.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, shot 44 percent on 5.6 3s a night. Valpo went 30-7 with the No. 8 defense in the country. They were No. 31 in KenPom at the end of the regular season. They were ready to do something cool in March.
Then they caught a frenetic, weird Green Bay team. They lost in OT. The kinda cool dream was just a run to the NIT final. Then his coach left for Vandy, and he had a choice. He coulda gone most anywhere. I think Maryland was rumored. Vandy woulda worked. He could've given himself another good shot at the dance. But he was loyal in the way that makes old schoolers warm and fuzzy. Valpo promoted an assistant. A chunk of the team came back. He stayed.
They were good the next year, but not as good. Oakland was on their level, and everyone knew one of those teams would deny the other, owing to the cruelty of March. Instead a 9-23 Milwaukee team held Valpo 13 points below the previous season low in a 43-41 loss (Oakland also got upset). His career ended in the NIT vs. Illinois.
That's not to say the loyalty was bad. It was what it was. A really, really good player was limited by this structure. He had a chance to change, valued something more, couldn't get where he wanted, and a decorated career faded a bit with a final chapter that wasn't quite what you'd wish.
Which brings us to Daum. He's been to three tournaments. He's the ninth-leading scorer in NCAA history, and should move to eighth or seventh by year's end. That wouldn't have happened if he'd gone to his home state and brought Nebraska back to the dance, or followed his former assistant coach and formed an inside-outside death machine with Ethan Happ. If he's lucky, he'll end his career in MSG in an event people give a little lip service to. Maybe I'm in the minority for imagining how cool that could've been, but it's something to think about at least.
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St. Mary's beat Gonzaga last night, eliminating one bubble team. OSU or IU could be the victim here. Both probably needed Gonzaga to win that one.
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St. Mary's beat Gonzaga last night, eliminating one bubble team. OSU or IU could be the victim here. Both probably needed Gonzaga to win that one.
I've believed since the BTT was set that the IU/tOSU loser was out. Bid thieves like St. Mary's happen every year and the IU/tOSU loser would need a VERY soft bubble. I just don't see it happening. IMHO, the IU/tOSU game is for a spot in the Big Dance.
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Could have been, but now we won't ever really know.
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Could have been, but now we won't ever really know.
Don’t the usually list the last team in, last few out?
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The committee? I don't know that. I know the "experts" do that for their own.
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IMHO, the IU/tOSU game is for a spot in the Big Dance.
high stakes. I'll be watching
Huskers/Rutgers on the other-hand.......... not so compelling
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I think that they should maybe mandate that a team needs to be at least .500 in their own Conference in order to qualify for an at large bid.
Sorry if this has already been discussed, I haven't read the entire thread. Just sorta jumping in here.
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but, that's not fair
some programs unfairly belong to very strong basketball conferences
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Yes I follow such a program, and they don't belong on any bubble.
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I'm not sure I can completely call it an absolute cutoff of having to be .500 in conference. Let's say a team from the Big Ten goes 11-0 non-conference with 7 wins against top 25 teams like Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Villanova, Tennessee, Florida State, and maybe some mid-major. Then they go 9-11 in conference with all their losses coming to the top half of the league. That would be 20-11 before the BTT and 0 quad 3/4 losses and probably a 16-11 quad 1/2 record. I would think that is a tournament worthy team.
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I think that is super unlikely to happen. I'm not overly concerned about any team hovering around that .500 mark to be incredibly qualified, I just think without complete round robin schedules it's unfair to teams who get the scheduling shaft. Indiana goes 9-11 with double plays against the top 3 or 4 teams in the league while Purdue goes 10-10, and plays those top schools once, that's kind of an arbitrary cutoff, if Indiana is otherwise equally or even more qualified. Generally a 10-10 team and a 9-11 team are going to be fairly equal, and schedule most likely determines who winds up with each record.
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but, that's not fair
some programs unfairly belong to very strong basketball conferences
If one made this cutoff, you have two outcomes. You’ll create a little vacuum with those last few spots.
1. You let in a batch of high-win mid-majors. Kind of ignoring the good win/bad loss metrics of the day. I’d be fine with this, but it to a degree some argue it reduces quality to a degree.
2. You end up with some kinda weird Big conference schools in there.
For example, 16-15 South Carolina becomes an option because of a bad non-conference run. Or some Pac12 teams/Meh Big East teams become tastier. Is that good?
If the first option happens, fine by me. Some teams will get sorta screwed. Same as now, just different teams.
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The tournament is too big.
A team like IU or OSU this year is probably as worthy as any of the other teams in the 64th-72nd range.
But rather than argue over whether they're deserving, why not just restrict the field so they're not even in the discussion?
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I think that they should maybe mandate that a team needs to be at least .500 in their own Conference in order to qualify for an at large bid.
Sorry if this has already been discussed, I haven't read the entire thread. Just sorta jumping in here.
but, that's not fair
some programs unfairly belong to very strong basketball conferences
Yes I follow such a program, and they don't belong on any bubble.
I strongly disagree with you @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) for the reason stated by @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) but I want to expand on it a bit.
First, the NCAA Tournament already favors teams from crappy conferences because all they have to do is to win their crappy conference tournament. In many cases that is substantially easier than compiling a decent record in a conference like ours.
I'll use Gonzaga's West Coast Conference as an example. Per the net rankings, the WCC members are ranked:
- #2 Gonzaga
- #34 St. Mary's
- #72 San Francisco
- #85 BYU
- #99 San Diego
- #142 Loyola Marymount
- #167 Peperdine
- #183 Santa Clara
- #213 Pacific
- #326 Portland
Going .500 in that conference would be easy even for a bad B1G team.
Here are the NET rankings for the B1G:
- #8 MSU
- #10 M
- #12 PU
- #15 UW
- #26 UMD
- #42 IA
- #49 PSU
- #51 IU
- #52 UNL
- #55 tOSU
- #56 MN
- #88 NU
- #100 RU
- #105 IL
It would be ridiculously unfair to major conference teams to require them to achieve a .500 ranking in a gauntlet like the B1G. Note that half of the WCC's teams would be the worst team in the B1G by far. Five of the B1G's 14 teams would be at least the second best team in the WCC.
One can criticize MSU's two losses to #51 IU, but realize that in their entire conference slate Gonzaga only played three games against teams as good as Indiana, their three games against Saint Mary's. Gonzaga went 2-1. In games against teams at least that good the Spartans went:
- 2-0 against #10 M
- 1-1 against #12 PU
- 1-0 against #15 UW
- 1-0 against #26 UMD
- 2-0 against #42 IA
- 1-0 against #49 PSU
- 0-2 against #42 IU
Another reason is unbalanced schedules. In the B1G, of course, we play 20 games against 13 teams meaning that we play:
- Three on the road only
- Three at home only, and
- Seven both home and road.
This can be a humongous difference. Consider two hypothetical league schedules that Ohio State could have been assigned:
Hypothetical Schedule #1:
- MSU, M, and PU at home only
- UW, UMD, and IA on the road only
- The rest (PSU, IU, UNL, MN, NU, RU, and IL) twice each
Hypothetical Schedule #2:
- NU, RU, and IL on the road only
- MN, UNL, and IU at home only
- The rest (MSU, M, PU, UW, UMD, IA, PSU) twice each
A team that goes .500 on hypothetical schedule #2 should absolutely be in the tournament. A team that goes .500 against hypothetical schedule #1 is a different thing entirely.
A team should absolutely not be excluded from the tournament based on having a tougher league schedule. The teams in the tournament should be the auto-qualifiers (I only reluctantly accept that) and the best remaining teams in the country as at-large representatives.
Finally, for anyone who thinks the NCAA does not favor crappy conference teams, please note that major conference teams have won six of the last seven tournaments played to determine the best team left out of the NCAA. That includes two B1G teams (PSU in 2018 and MN in 2014). Prior to that minor conferences won a couple and then we are right back to major conference teams again.
NIT winners:
- PSU in 2018
- TCU in 2017
- George Washington in 2016
- Stanford in 2015
- Minnesota in 2014
- Baylor in 2013
- Stanford in 2012
- Wichita State in 2011
- Dayton in 2010
- PSU in 2009
- tOSU in 2008
- WVU in 2007
- USCe in 2006
- USCe in 2005
- Michigan in 2004
Note that the best team left out of the NCAA tournament has been from our league five times in the last 15 years. There is no reason whatsoever to make this disparity even worse such that it favors teams from crappy conferences more than it already does.
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The tournament is too big.
A team like IU or OSU this year is probably as worthy as any of the other teams in the 64th-72nd range.
But rather than argue over whether they're deserving, why not just restrict the field so they're not even in the discussion?
I'd be fine with shrinking the size of the tournament but only if you reduced the number of crappy conference champions.
As it is now every conference tournament winner gets a bid no matter how bad they and their conference are. If you are going to do that then I think you should have enough at-large teams such that the disparity between the worst few at-large teams and the worst few auto-bid teams isn't too ridiculously large. IMHO, that disparity is already too large.
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The tournament is too big.
A team like IU or OSU this year is probably as worthy as any of the other teams in the 64th-72nd range.
But rather than argue over whether they're deserving, why not just restrict the field so they're not even in the discussion?
You sir hate America
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The tournament is too big.
A team like IU or OSU this year is probably as worthy as any of the other teams in the 64th-72nd range.
But rather than argue over whether they're deserving, why not just restrict the field so they're not even in the discussion?
The tournament is probably one of the best things in sports. Why would you change it to say, the teams at the edge are not good? If they’re not good, they lose.
Erring toward more rather than less is fine. The question of the teams at the edge will always be there. The last 48-team field had a 16-11 at-large team. The last 32-teamer was very exclusive, probably more than we’d like.
What makes this great is the access, the dreams, the teams that have no business on national tv against powerhouses but are anyway. Extra exclusivity “raise” the quality is just plain boring.
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I'd be fine with shrinking the size of the tournament but only if you reduced the number of crappy conference champions.
As it is now every conference tournament winner gets a bid no matter how bad they and their conference are. If you are going to do that then I think you should have enough at-large teams such that the disparity between the worst few at-large teams and the worst few auto-bid teams isn't too ridiculously large. IMHO, that disparity is already too large.
A tournament without crappy conference champions isn’t an event.
This is not about letting in all the right teams. If it was, it would be not be what it is. Just pick the four best teams and have one weekend. Blech.
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I would be fine with restricting the tourney to 32 teams
but, I'm fine with it the way it is
it's only basketball
I just hate the idear of comparing the basketball tourney to the football playoff - it is not the same
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People clearly like the tournament. In that sense, it overwhelmingly succeeds as an event. It only fails for those who may or may not like the entertainment but certainly disprefer that this is what crowns a champion.
Usually this perspective comes from the "purist" or "theoretical champion" corner. Because if your theoretical definition of a champion is "Truly the best team that season, with zero mistakes in crowning that team acceptable," then the 64-bit bracket inevitably makes those people into curmudgeons.
But there is also no obvious solution to this "problem," because if this system were traded for a MNC poll to finish the regular season or a 10x smaller tournament, then - sure - the theoreticians would be happier but the more populous entertainment junkies would be bitter.
TLDR - the MBB championship is far from a pure championship. Sometimes quite average teams ostensibly knock out the most deserving champs or - triplegasp - an average team goes on an anomalous run to become the actual champion. But it's entertaining so most people don't care.
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I strongly disagree with you @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) for the reason stated by @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) but I want to expand on it a bit.
First, the NCAA Tournament already favors teams from crappy conferences because all they have to do is to win their crappy conference tournament. In many cases that is substantially easier than compiling a decent record in a conference like ours.
I'll use Gonzaga's West Coast Conference as an example. Per the net rankings, the WCC members are ranked:
- #2 Gonzaga
- #34 St. Mary's
- #72 San Francisco
- #85 BYU
- #99 San Diego
- #142 Loyola Marymount
- #167 Peperdine
- #183 Santa Clara
- #213 Pacific
- #326 Portland
Going .500 in that conference would be easy even for a bad B1G team.
Here are the NET rankings for the B1G:
- #8 MSU
- #10 M
- #12 PU
- #15 UW
- #26 UMD
- #42 IA
- #49 PSU
- #51 IU
- #52 UNL
- #55 tOSU
- #56 MN
- #88 NU
- #100 RU
- #105 IL
It would be ridiculously unfair to major conference teams to require them to achieve a .500 ranking in a gauntlet like the B1G. Note that half of the WCC's teams would be the worst team in the B1G by far. Five of the B1G's 14 teams would be at least the second best team in the WCC.
One can criticize MSU's two losses to #51 IU, but realize that in their entire conference slate Gonzaga only played three games against teams as good as Indiana, their three games against Saint Mary's. Gonzaga went 2-1. In games against teams at least that good the Spartans went:
- 2-0 against #10 M
- 1-1 against #12 PU
- 1-0 against #15 UW
- 1-0 against #26 UMD
- 2-0 against #42 IA
- 1-0 against #49 PSU
- 0-2 against #42 IU
Another reason is unbalanced schedules. In the B1G, of course, we play 20 games against 13 teams meaning that we play:
- Three on the road only
- Three at home only, and
- Seven both home and road.
This can be a humongous difference. Consider two hypothetical league schedules that Ohio State could have been assigned:
Hypothetical Schedule #1:
- MSU, M, and PU at home only
- UW, UMD, and IA on the road only
- The rest (PSU, IU, UNL, MN, NU, RU, and IL) twice each
Hypothetical Schedule #2:
- NU, RU, and IL on the road only
- MN, UNL, and IU at home only
- The rest (MSU, M, PU, UW, UMD, IA, PSU) twice each
A team that goes .500 on hypothetical schedule #2 should absolutely be in the tournament. A team that goes .500 against hypothetical schedule #1 is a different thing entirely.
A team should absolutely not be excluded from the tournament based on having a tougher league schedule. The teams in the tournament should be the auto-qualifiers (I only reluctantly accept that) and the best remaining teams in the country as at-large representatives.
Finally, for anyone who thinks the NCAA does not favor crappy conference teams, please note that major conference teams have won six of the last seven tournaments played to determine the best team left out of the NCAA. That includes two B1G teams (PSU in 2018 and MN in 2014). Prior to that minor conferences won a couple and then we are right back to major conference teams again.
NIT winners:
- PSU in 2018
- TCU in 2017
- George Washington in 2016
- Stanford in 2015
- Minnesota in 2014
- Baylor in 2013
- Stanford in 2012
- Wichita State in 2011
- Dayton in 2010
- PSU in 2009
- tOSU in 2008
- WVU in 2007
- USCe in 2006
- USCe in 2005
- Michigan in 2004
Note that the best team left out of the NCAA tournament has been from our league five times in the last 15 years. There is no reason whatsoever to make this disparity even worse such that it favors teams from crappy conferences more than it already does.
Yeah, I am sure that the idea would be an assault upon your statistical brain, and I'm not trying to make an "all conferences are created equal" argument. But for the sake of the integrity of both the Tournament and the Regular Season there has to be a line drawn somewhere. Loading up the field with a bunch of teams that were not even remotely competitive in Conference play is just not a good look, imo.
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People clearly like the tournament. In that sense, it overwhelmingly succeeds as an event. It only fails for those who may or may not like the entertainment but certainly disprefer that this is what crowns a champion.
Usually this perspective comes from the "purist" or "theoretical champion" corner. Because if your theoretical definition of a champion is "Truly the best team that season, with zero mistakes in crowning that team acceptable," then the 64-bit bracket inevitably makes those people into curmudgeons.
But there is also no obvious solution to this "problem," because if this system were traded for a MNC poll to finish the regular season or a 10x smaller tournament, then - sure - the theoreticians would be happier but the more populous entertainment junkies would be bitter.
TLDR - the MBB championship is far from a pure championship. Sometimes quite average teams ostensibly knock out the most deserving champs or - triplegasp - an average team goes on an anomalous run to become the actual champion. But it's entertaining so most people don't care.
The problem is.....how do you truly determine WHO the best team is? In the pros.....NBA, NHL, and MLB specifically.....multi-game series imo do a pretty good job of determining the "best" team and crowning a true champion. The NFL not as much since one game can go the wrong way or be decided based on a fluke. Same goes for the NCAA Tournament. But what would be a better system? There are too many teams that could make a claim to be in a multi-game tournament bracket if the NCAA were to go to something similar to the NBA.
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Welcome back, my friend.
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Welcome back, my friend.
Boy...I was sweating out that game on Sunday. I was getting worried that the Badgers were going to let me down by losing...which I don't think has ever been the case.
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Boy...I was sweating out that game on Sunday. I was getting worried that the Badgers were going to let me down by losing...which I don't think has ever been the case.
I didn't see it. I was on a boat in Palm Beach. In hindsight, I'm really glad about both. :93:
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I didn't see it. I was on a boat in Palm Beach. In hindsight, I'm really glad about both. :93:
Nice! And still came away with the win. Everyone wins except for the Bucks.
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I was thinking about Medina arguing " the NCAA Tournament already favors teams from crappy conferences."
It's an interesting phrasing because it's this weird brand of half truth.
It favors them in the sense that they simply do not have to be as good.
But of course, it doesn't actually favor them. They don't have any leeway. They have the conference tournament. They lack the funds, the stature to do anything but play long-odds games, and if they're good enough to win those, they might just get blackballed from doing so. They're not pulled into exempt tournaments where they can build resumes.
It's such a strightline approach. it favors them as an idea, but of course, Penn State in any given year has ample opportunity to go to the dance compared to most anyone else. I suppose if it favored them individually, Penn State would try to find a way to play in a bad league rather than teams trying to move to better ones.
Anyway, this event isn't about quality. College basketball isn't really to be honest. Quality is in the NBA.I'm here for stories and moments, and the Tournament (plus the other tournaments) are just fine on that front.
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Bucks? Milwaukee?
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Bucks? Milwaukee?
Buckeyes.
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Buckeyes.
Correction needed.
Buckasswipes.
:72:
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Correction needed.
Buckasswipes.
:72:
Fair.
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Bed time for this old fart.
Go, U Northwestern, Fight for Vic-Tor-EEEEE.
For Marcel, of course.
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Danny Nee and I think Miles taking a digger after a triumph over Rutger was hilarious.
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Danny Nee and I think Miles taking a digger after a triumph over Rutger was hilarious.
https://twitter.com/RobDauster/status/1105998639170809856?s=19
https://twitter.com/CoachMiles/status/1106003415182782465?s=19
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The problem is.....how do you truly determine WHO the best team is? In the pros.....NBA, NHL, and MLB specifically.....multi-game series imo do a pretty good job of determining the "best" team and crowning a true champion. The NFL not as much since one game can go the wrong way or be decided based on a fluke. Same goes for the NCAA Tournament. But what would be a better system? There are too many teams that could make a claim to be in a multi-game tournament bracket if the NCAA were to go to something similar to the NBA.
There are no perfect systems for selecting a "pure" champion. Still, we can disinguish championship formats based on how much wackiness they welcome.
Based only on weighted win probability, a 64-team tourney is as likely to crown a false champion as any system in sports. I guess I should define that - false champion. Obviously it's a relative term (winners of championships are technically always true champions). I mean "false champion" to describe a team that wins a national championship but was emphatically not in our "who's the best" consciousness during the regular season. Using the NCAA MBB tournament, the classic examples of this wackiness are that 6-, 7- and 8-seeds have won the NC before. 16-seed UMBC toppling #1 UVa is also infamous -- that is, great for entertainment, disappointing in terms of "pure champion" chalk.
By comparison, skipping a tournament to just put it to pollsters at the end of the regular season is boring. It'll never happen. And it wouldn't eliminate controversy anyway. But the wackiness quotient for it would be as low as is realistic in the college game (approximately the same as if there were a 2- or 4-team single elimination tournament).
You mentioned the NBA and NHL models. Because they discard with single elimination, those are neat comparisons and, yes, 3-, 5-, and 7-game series have (can have) even lower wackiness quotients than a 2-team single elimination championship game. Obviously the college game can't adopt too much of that. College kids can't have months-long tournaments, for one, and college games have a culture that can erode if it gets too derivative of the pros. Having said that, some NCAA sports already run this way. And the ice hockey conference championships that do are great, though the flipping between multi-game elimination rounds and a single-elimination final isn't exactly elegant. So even there there's room to improve.
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I want to reply to @bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) point by point because my post was absolutely NOT a half truth:
First, he admitted that the tournament favors teams from crappy conferences because they simply do not have to be as good. That is the end of the discussion, full stop.
For some reason he felt it necessary to continue:
He asserted that they have no leeway. This is obviously incorrect and the example of Gonzaga proves it. They play in a crappy conference as I illustrated above. They failed to win their crappy conference and yet they will still be invited to the NCAA tournament due to their gaudy 30-3 record. The thing about that record is that 16 of those wins came against Gonzaga's crappy conference-mates.
Remember from above that this is a conference in which half of the members are substantially worse than any B1G team. Even on the rare occasions when Gonzaga does have to play a decent opponent in conference they NEVER face the grind that comes with playing decent opponents game-in and game-out in the B1G. They played #34 St. Mary's three times:
- They played them at home on February 9. In their game prior to that Gonzaga played #72 San Francisco.
- They played them on the road on March 2. In their game prior to that Gonzaga played #213 Pacific.
- They played them in the WCC Tournament on March 12. In their game prior to that Gonzaga played #167 Pepperdine.
Note that on two of the three occasions that Gonzaga played St. Mary's their preceding game was against a team at least 60 spots worse than ANY B1G team. The other time that Gonzaga played St. Mary's their preceding game was against a team that would have been the 10th best in the B1G.
The only time all year that Gonzaga played back-to-back games against quality opponents was in December. They lost to #6 Tennessee in Phoenix then traveled to #7 UNC and lost that game as well.
Next @bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) asserted that the only thing these crappy conference teams can do is to play long-odds games, that if they win they might get blackballed, and that they are not pulled into exempt tournaments where they can build resumes. The example of Gonzaga obviously illustrates that all three of these assertions are flatly false. Gonzaga has won high-end games in the past and yet they still get that opportunity. This year alone they hosted Washington, traveled to UNC, played a neutral-site game in Phoenix against Tennessee, and played resume-building exempt tournament games against Illinois, Arizona, and Dook in Maui.
In his penultimate paragraph @bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) uses PSU as an example and asserts that if it favored them individually, the Nittany Lions would try to find a way to play in a bad league rather than they (and others) trying to move to better ones. First, PSU's conference affiliation is in the B1G and we don't have football only or all-but-basketball members. Penn State can't just drop out of the league for easier BB schedules because they would also have to give up everything that the conference gets them in other areas.
Our league has plenty of advantages. Chief among those are money and exposure. That does nothing to change the fact that the NCAA tournament favors crappy-conference teams because they simply do not have to be as good.
Finally, I mostly agree with @bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) 's final paragraph. The tournament is about stories and moments. That is fine, but I still think that there are too many auto-bids. My measurement here is the vast number of auto-bids who will be worse than the worst at-large teams. In Lunardi's latest, the last four at-large teams are UF/NCST who are projected to have a play-in game for the last #11 seed and tOSU/TX who are projected to have a play-in game for the first #12 seed. Thus, Lunardi is projecting that 21 auto-bids will be worse than the worst at-large:
- The three other #12 seeds
- All four #13 seeds
- All four #14 seeds
- All four #15 seeds
- All six #16 seeds (including the two play-in games).
Note that it will likely actually be worse than that because most conference tournaments are not yet complete and for those incomplete tournaments Lunardi assumes that the best team will win. There will be upsets like St. Mary's over Gonzaga in the WCCCG and when those happen there will be even more bad auto-bids claimed.
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“First, he admitted that the tournament favors teams from crappy conferences because they simply do not have to be as good. That is the end of the discussion, full stop.”
See here’s the thing, you passionately feel this matters. I do not.
Now if you want to disagree that it’s harder for Lehigh to make the dance than Nebraska, go ahead. We’re disagreeing on a finer point there. Pointing to Gonzaga is not really applicable. That’s a unicorn and treating it as a standard is at best disingenuous.
Again, I am perfectly fine if the fringe teams are not so much “better” as more interesting. If you’re on the damn fringe, you didnt do enough to earn your spot anyway.
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It also ignores things like how basically every Big Ten game counts as a Quad 1, and I think absolutely every Big Ten game counts as at least Quad 2. So we established these NET Rankings, then tacked on this other thing to make it easier for power conference teams. MSU keeps getting credit for conference games, like Rutgers or Northwestern, that Furman or Belmont or whoever could absolutely win, but they don't have them in their conference.
Second, this is only viewing it from the standpoint of auto-bid or bust. Yeah, some MEAC team doesn't have to be as good. But what about a Furman, or UNC Greensboro or Belmont? You have to be SUBSTANTIALLY better than a supposedly equivalent power 5 non-conference team.
And either way, are the top NIT teams (probably all the NIT teams, considering it's the best non-selected teams, plus the regular season mid-major champs, who are usually better than the teams who upset them) better than the bottom auto-bids? Sure. But maybe not. And we know what NC State is. What Florida is. What Indiana is. They are the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, whatever best teams in their own conference. I'd much rather give Vermont a shot to prove something, than give Clemson one more game to prove what they already proved over the past several months. This isn't football. We aren't even pretending that every team in the field is a valid national title contender, so why would anyone want to see the 10th best team from the ACC?
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Massey composite rankings (67 rankings) going into the tourney, with last week in parenthesis (does not include this week's games)...
- Virginia (1)
- Duke (2)
- Gonzaga (3)
- North Carolina (4)
- MICHIGAN STATE (6)
- Tennessee (5)
- Kentucky (8)
- MICHIGAN (7)
- Texas Tech (9)
- Houston (12)
- PURDUE (10)
- LSU (14)
- Kansas (11)
- Virginia Tech (13)
- Florida State (15)
- WISCONSIN (17)
- Nevada (18)
- Auburn (21)
- Buffalo (16)
- Kansas State (24)
- MARYLAND (25)
- Mississippi State (23)
- Louisville (-)
- Villanova (22)
- Wofford (-)
- 36. Iowa (32)
- 43. Minnesota (45)
- 44. Indiana (50)
- 46. Ohio State (39)
- 55. Nebraska (55)
- 56. Penn State (58)
- 88. Rutgers (76)
- 92. Northwestern (99)
- 97. Illinois (86)
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“First, he admitted that the tournament favors teams from crappy conferences because they simply do not have to be as good. That is the end of the discussion, full stop.”
See here’s the thing, you passionately feel this matters. I do not.
Now if you want to disagree that it’s harder for Lehigh to make the dance than Nebraska, go ahead. We’re disagreeing on a finer point there. Pointing to Gonzaga is not really applicable. That’s a unicorn and treating it as a standard is at best disingenuous.
Again, I am perfectly fine if the fringe teams are not so much “better” as more interesting. If you’re on the damn fringe, you didnt do enough to earn your spot anyway.
My point was that it was easier for crappy conference teams because they don't have to be as good. You can't say that I'm wrong unless you can refute THAT point.
I'm fine with your statement that you don't think that matters. Ok, agree to disagree. Saying that my point is irrelevant (to you) or arguing that my point is irrelevant generally is not the same thing as saying that I am wrong.
I disagree wrt Gonzaga. They are an example of a crappy-conference team that gets into the NCAA Tournament every year (20 straight, about to be 21). Their streak proves that it is possible for a crappy-conference team to make the tournament consistently.
I'm willing to accept SOME teams getting in that are clearly not as good as the others but I think that as currently formulated there are too many of those. As I explained above, there will be ~21 auto-bids that wouldn't be good enough to get an at-large invite. That is almost 1/3 of the total. IMHO, that is too many.
Finally, your last comment: "If you’re on the damn fringe, you didnt do enough to earn your spot anyway.":
Look, I am a fan of a team that is on the fringe. I get your point. My Buckeyes had their chances. They lost a one possession game to Rutgers and pushed your Badgers to OT. With a couple of plays they could have won those two games in which case they would be 10-10/20-11 and a lock for the NCAA. They'd be a #7 seed in the BTT playing Penn State for the right to play Purdue and it would only be relevant for seeding.
It is easy to say that they didn't do enough. @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) clearly agrees with you and I don't completely disagree. The Buckeyes (and all the other fringe tournament teams) are clearly NOT NC material. My objection isn't that they are, it is that there are going to be at least 15-20 teams worse than Ohio State in the tournament.
Even there, I grudgingly accept that there are a bunch of crappy-conference tournament champions who won a "tallest midget" competition and there is some benefit to giving them access in terms of entertainment value. It just ticks me off when I hear people try to claim that it is biased against the little guy because it isn't. It is clearly easier for a crappy-conference team to get in than it is for a quality-conference team to get in.
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The mid majors are in a similar boat as teams at the lower levels, where the autobid is everything, and nothing else really matters unless you are a top ten team including regular season conference titles.
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It also ignores things like how basically every Big Ten game counts as a Quad 1, and I think absolutely every Big Ten game counts as at least Quad 2. So we established these NET Rankings, then tacked on this other thing to make it easier for power conference teams. MSU keeps getting credit for conference games, like Rutgers or Northwestern, that Furman or Belmont or whoever could absolutely win, but they don't have them in their conference.
Ok, but Furman and Belmont don't have to play challenging games practically every time out. Your Spartans lost to the Hoosiers twice. One of those games followed a loss to Purdue and the other followed a win over Michigan. Let me know next time Furman or Belmont plays back-to-back conference games against #12 and #51 or #10 and #51.
Second, this is only viewing it from the standpoint of auto-bid or bust. Yeah, some MEAC team doesn't have to be as good. But what about a Furman, or UNC Greensboro or Belmont? You have to be SUBSTANTIALLY better than a supposedly equivalent power 5 non-conference team.
I disagree for the reason stated above. Furman, Belmont, and UNC-Greensboro haven't proven that they are as good as the fringe power-conference teams because they haven't played enough quality opponents. If you want a chance outside of the auto-bid (which is REALLY easy to obtain) then go out and schedule some quality OOC opponents.
And either way, are the top NIT teams (probably all the NIT teams, considering it's the best non-selected teams, plus the regular season mid-major champs, who are usually better than the teams who upset them) better than the bottom auto-bids? Sure. But maybe not. And we know what NC State is. What Florida is. What Indiana is. They are the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, whatever best teams in their own conference. I'd much rather give Vermont a shot to prove something, than give Clemson one more game to prove what they already proved over the past several months. This isn't football. We aren't even pretending that every team in the field is a valid national title contender, so why would anyone want to see the 10th best team from the ACC?
Of course the top NIT teams are better than the bottom auto-bids. Look, the bottom auto-bids are terrible. In the 30+ years that we have been doing this those #16 seeds are 1-135 against the #1's. The #15 seeds are 8-128. Of the nine that did manage to upset a top team, eight of them lost to a mediocre team (7-10 seed which generally means a ~.500 team from a power conference) in the second game. The one-and-only #15 seed to make the Sweet Sixteen flamed out right there.
Upsets happen so nine times in 270 tries the #15 and #16 seeds have managed to pull off the upset but they never went far. They aren't relevant to the NC. They aren't going to win any more than NCST, UF, IU, tOSU, Clemson. Actually they have way less chance than those teams because those teams are usually teams that have pulled off at least one upset of a quality team this season where the worst auto-bids can't even say that (usually).
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Actually, it's not easy to obtain. Furman offered to go to South Carolina and Clemson. They both said no. Gary Parrish discussed this recently. Those top mid majors really struggle to find teams willing to play them.
BTW, Furman scheduled 2 of the 4 Final 4 teams from last year, beat them both, and played at LSU.
They are never going to get to the quantity of the Power 5 teams, because the way it's set up now, every conference game is a Quad 1 or a Quad 2 game.
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Actually, it's not easy to obtain. Furman offered to go to South Carolina and Clemson. They both said no. Gary Parrish discussed this recently. Those top mid majors really struggle to find teams willing to play them.
BTW, Furman scheduled 2 of the 4 Final 4 teams from last year, beat them both, and played at LSU.
They are never going to get to the quantity of the Power 5 teams, because the way it's set up now, every conference game is a Quad 1 or a Quad 2 game.
The parenthetical "(which is REALLY easy to obtain)" referred to the auto-bid. Obtaining that requires nothing more than winning a "tallest midget" competition. Here is what Furman did in their own Southern Conference:
- 0-2 against #13 Wofford (H/A)
- 1-2 against #58 UNC-Greensboro (won H, lost A and N)
- 1-1 against #71 ETSU (H/A)
- 1-1 against #162 Samford (H/A)
- 2-0 against #217 Mercer
- 2-0 against #272 Citadel
- 2-0 against #295 Western Carolina
- 2-0 against #305 VMI
You said upthread that you don't want to see the 10th best team in the ACC well I don't want to see the third best team in the Southern. Neither is the best in their league and the 10th best team in the ACC is a better team. Furman's 8-0 record against Mercer, Citadel, WCU, and VMI does not impress me and it shouldn't impress anyone else either. Their loss to Samford is damning. That is far worse than Ohio State's worst loss (I'm only using tOSU as the example because they are a fringe tournament team that I follow so I don't have to look it up, I just know). I would guess that Furman's loss to Samford is worse than most fringe tournament teams' worst loss.
All the fringe teams had their chances and Furman is no exception:
- Don't lose to the 162nd best team in the Country (would be worst in the B1G by far)
- Don't lose to the 71st best team in the Country (would be 12th in the B1G)
- Don't lose twice to the 58th best team in the Country (would be 12th in the B1G)
B1G teams get credit for lots of Quad 1 and Quad 2 games because they play a lot of quality opponents. Southern Conference, WCC, etc teams don't because they don't.
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St. Mary's wasn't on the bracketology until they won their auto-bid, but are 29th on KenPom, higher than several tourney locks.
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I follow this stuff, here are the number of first and second round wins by seed since the expansion to 64 teams (136 attempts):
Seed | R64 | R32 |
1 | 135 | 116 |
2 | 128 | 85 |
3 | 115 | 70 |
4 | 108 | 64 |
5 | 89 | 46 |
6 | 85 | 42 |
7 | 84 | 27 |
8 | 68 | 13 |
9 | 68 | 7 |
10 | 52 | 23 |
11 | 51 | 22 |
12 | 47 | 20 |
13 | 28 | 6 |
14 | 21 | 2 |
15 | 8 | 1 |
16 | 1 | 0 |
Note the HUGE dropoff from the #12's to the #13's. The #12 seeds have won 47 5/12 games. That is almost as many first round wins as the #13-16 seeds combined (58). The #12 seeds have also made 20 Sweet Sixteen appearances which is more than twice as many as the #13-16 seeds combined (9).
The bottom line is that the worst auto-bids are laughably non-competitive. They (the #13-16 seeds) have made only nine Sweet Sixteen appearances in 544 attempts (1.65%) and none of them have ever advanced beyond that.
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It is exactly as many as the 13 and 14 combined.
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Not great shooting but some fun up and down basketball in the first half.
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At the under-8 timeout the Buckeyes have a 17 point lead and the Worldwide leader asserts that their chances of winning are above 99%.
Question for the group:
Is Minnesota safe? I had been operating under the assumption that they were probably safely in with the IU/tOSU winner being the B1G's last tournament team. Then I noticed that in @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's composite rankings the Gophers are only BARELY ahead of IU/tOSU. Meanwhile in the NET rankings the Gophers (#56) are behind Ohio State (#55) and Indiana (#51).
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And as I was typing that IU was working on an 11-0 run to make it interesting again.
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Not sure what's better for the Big Ten. If Indiana wins, both schools could get in, but both could get left out. If OSU wins, we are for sure getting them in.
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I think Minnesota has to win tonight to get in.
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BUCKEYES!
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Bucks just have to make it interesting. Whew, great win.
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Sorry IU.
I honestly turned that off. Was confused why ELA was posting like it was still a question.
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Yay! We might get to play in Dayton after we are done getting pantsed by Sparty. What a glorious season. If they make it out of the play in game a commemorative tattoo might be in order.
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BUCKEYES!
Bucks just have to make it interesting. Whew, great win.
There were some strange runs to end this game.
The Buckeyes were up by seven at the half and started the second half on a 5-2 run to make it a 10 point game. Then for about six minutes that held relatively steady with the Buckeyes and Hoosiers trading pulling away a little bit and closing in a little bit. Then:
- With 11:13 to go IU hit a bucket to close to within 10 points, 53-43. The Hoosiers didn't score again for almost four minutes.
- Between 11:13 and 7:15 to go the Buckeyes went on a 10-0 run to stretch the lead to 20, 63-43. With just over seven minutes to go and a 20 point lead this looked to be over.
- Between 7:14 and 3:40 the Hoosiers went on a 13-0 run to close to within 7, 56-63.
- After that the Hoosier run continued but at a somewhat slower pace. They actually closed to within just two points at one point but they just ran out of time as that occurred with 0:04 to go.
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The Bucks got 17 from CJ and 18 from Woods. They are tough to beat when those guys both give them good production. Made up for the lack of bench today.
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viewing the BTT in 4K today!!!
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I think Minnesota has to win tonight to get in.
I didn't think so before, but if the committee takes this new NET ranking seriously then you might be right. The good news for Minnesota is that their opponent tonight is actually ranked higher than they are (PSU is #49 while MN is #56). That means two things:
- If the Gophers lose it will not be THAT bad of a loss, and
- If the Gophers win it will be a pretty good win.
The bad news for the Gophers is that PSU is actually favored.
Lunardi has them as a #10 seed which would indicate that they have some breathing room, probably enough of a margin to be able to afford a neutral site loss to #49 PSU. However, the NET ranking tells a different story. Even using @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's composite ranking, if they lose tonight they will definitely end up behind Ohio State.
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I listened to the Game on the Radio, so didn't I see it. But Paul Keels called a play in favor of Indiana, that the refs gave to OSU, and I was curious what people who saw it thought?
Recalling what I heard: OSU up 3, Indiana had the ball, 30ish seconds left. Keels "[Indiana Player] drives the lane, gets fouled, and one! Indiana going to the line with a chance to, oh wait, they called that a charge? Kaleb Wesson steps in and takes a charge? How about that for defense, the big guy is guarding a point guard at the key and drops back to take a charge. On no, look there [Buckeye Player] totally hacked his arm before the charge. Buckeyes catch a break there."
OSU scores the next possession to go up two scores changing how the last 30 seconds play out. I didn't see it, but I trust Keels especially if as the Buckeye caller says the foul should have been on OSU. Basically just for yet another reason to complain about refs, not being able to keep up with the game.
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I don't know a lot, but looking at the NET rankings:
49 49 Penn St. Big Ten 14-17 4-9 1-2 9-6 0-0
51 51 Indiana Big Ten 17-14 3-9 1-0 13-5 0-0
52 52 Nebraska Big Ten 17-15 2-9 3-1 11-5 1-0
55 55 Ohio St. Big Ten 18-13 5-7 1-0 12-6 0-0
56 56 Minnesota Big Ten 19-12 2-9 4-0 13-3 0-0
I don't think any of these teams should feel safe. And a #55 beating a #51 on a neutral court doesn't appear to me to be a significant enough win to move the needle past the bubble status.
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The Maryland play book with Turgeon is to lose to weaker teams on a big stage.
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Tim Miles would appreciate that, but I still don't think it saves his job
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I don't know a lot, but looking at the NET rankings:
49 49 Penn St. Big Ten 14-17 4-9 1-2 9-6 0-0
51 51 Indiana Big Ten 17-14 3-9 1-0 13-5 0-0
52 52 Nebraska Big Ten 17-15 2-9 3-1 11-5 1-0
55 55 Ohio St. Big Ten 18-13 5-7 1-0 12-6 0-0
56 56 Minnesota Big Ten 19-12 2-9 4-0 13-3 0-0
I don't think any of these teams should feel safe. And a #55 beating a #51 on a neutral court doesn't appear to me to be a significant enough win to move the needle past the bubble status.
Obviously I can't know for sure what the committee will do with their fancy new NET ranking but my guess is that they will compare it to other rankings to look for outliers and go from there. For those "other rankings", I'll use the Massey Composite that @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) posts every Tuesday so here are those teams with their composite ranking added:
- NET, Team, Composite, since then and/or next:
- 49, PSU, 56, vs #56/43 Minnesota tonight
- 51, IU, 44, lost to #55/46 tOSU
- 52, UNL, 55, beat #100/88 RU, vs #26/21 UMD
- 55, tOSU, 46, beat #51/44 IU, vs #8/5 MSU
- 56, MN, 43, vs #49/56 PSU
If they were to go strictly by NET ranking then PSU would have a better shot than MN and would probably be a lock with a win over the Gophers. That said, I think that most of us don't believe that a 17-loss PSU is anywhere close to the bubble.
I think that @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) has a point in that 55>51 wouldn't necessarily get #55 out of the woods but if you look at it through the lens of the composite rankings that was #46 over #44 which almost certainly locks things up for #46 because they will now be low-40's and have basically nothing to lose in their game against #8.
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This would have been a damn interesting year to have played our BTT game where we got to draft players and see who could get the most overall points in the tournament.
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I really want Turgeon gone.
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Good for Miles being all chipper here. He knows he's done, but he's getting the most from it.
I want him to lose by 35 tomorrow. I also am a little annoyed because losing to MD on Friday would be fully explainable. Losing to Neb would be less so, and I'd like to not see MSU again.
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My point was that it was easier for crappy conference teams because they don't have to be as good. You can't say that I'm wrong unless you can refute THAT point.
I'm fine with your statement that you don't think that matters. Ok, agree to disagree. Saying that my point is irrelevant (to you) or arguing that my point is irrelevant generally is not the same thing as saying that I am wrong.
I disagree wrt Gonzaga. They are an example of a crappy-conference team that gets into the NCAA Tournament every year (20 straight, about to be 21). Their streak proves that it is possible for a crappy-conference team to make the tournament consistently.
I'm willing to accept SOME teams getting in that are clearly not as good as the others but I think that as currently formulated there are too many of those. As I explained above, there will be ~21 auto-bids that wouldn't be good enough to get an at-large invite. That is almost 1/3 of the total. IMHO, that is too many.
Even there, I grudgingly accept that there are a bunch of crappy-conference tournament champions who won a "tallest midget" competition and there is some benefit to giving them access in terms of entertainment value. It just ticks me off when I hear people try to claim that it is biased against the little guy because it isn't. It is clearly easier for a crappy-conference team to get in than it is for a quality-conference team to get in.
I'll start with this. I wrote that last post on my phone. I didn't have the time to give it the fullest attention.
When I called it a half truth, I mean this.
As you said, a better team has a harder road. That's true. It plays tougher opponents.
But there's the other side of the coin. A small conference team winning a great proportion of its games often means nothing. The teams have no say over conference opponents. They can try to game non-conference opponents, but building those up without a national brand isn't easy. Back in the day, Memphis and Gonzaga would play each other when more traditional powers wouldn't. Everything comes down to a single-elimination tournament.
Can we at least agree that everything coming down to a three-day stretch is it's own kind of difficulty? Either that or winning 30 games?
When one set of teams gets a lot of leeway and the other doesn't, people won't like it. I don't contest that it's harder to win seven games in the Big 10 than 13 in the Patriot League. But there is a position where two more Big 10 wins count and 16 in the Pat league don't.
In aggregate, the smaller schools are favored. On an individual level, you'd rather be a team that could dance with 13 losses than head to the NIT with 3, even if the schedule is a different beast.
Overall, the structure of college sports works against small schools. This we know. And the way to get an at large berth is built on a certain resource, and small schools have relatively little access to it. They have a different brand of access. One with less margin for error and a crueler point when it is lost.
I see where you're coming from, and outside a few of the more snarly-parts generally agree. I hope you see a few of my points as somewhat solid, even if we don't fully agree.
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I really want Turgeon gone.
it would seem really odd for Nebraska to hire Mark in the next month or so.
but, Mark's hometown is only a couple hours from Lincoln
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it would seem really odd for Nebraska to hire Mark in the next month or so.
but, Mark's hometown is only a couple hours from Lincoln
He needs to go.
Gary did more with less. We pride ourselves the most with basketball, and the NCAA TOURNAMENT, and Midnight Madness were all copied or morphed by Maryland influence.
This guy is the wrong guy for the job.
I think he wants the Kansas job, and who knows, maybe they're talking.
https://247sports.com/college/maryland/Article/Maryland-Basketball-Mark-Turgeons-Terps-Lose-Again-in-Big-Ten-Tournament-Nebraska-130079977/Amp/?__twitter_impression=true
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Gary would be in his 70s now, but he was one of my favorite coaches
I would welcome the old man at UNL
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Gary did pretty well in Columbus, so they say. A little before my time.
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Regarding the argument about mid-majors' at-large chances compared to mediocre power-conference schools, the reality is that nobody is forcing those conferences to have a conference tournament. I really don't understand why some of them don't do away with them. The one upside is if the best team doesn't actually win the league in the regular season (no good examples in recent years but it happens occasionally) due to an inbalanced schedule, a stronger non-conference showing, or something else, but generally it results in a worse team representing the conference.
Conversely, South Dakota State and Hofstra would've been dangerous teams in the tournament and could make runs in the NIT. No disrespect to North Dakota State and Northeastern, but they're just not as good.... A few years ago was perhaps the most infamous example when Holy Cross won the Patriot League as a #8 seed. It just doesn't make sense that a team can hypothetically go 4-31 and make the NCAA tournament because they won those last 4 games. I know some leagues don't include everyone in their conference tournaments (the Ivy League even after it finally gave in to having one still limits it to their top 4), but most of them do.
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Gary did pretty well in Columbus, so they say. A little before my time.
youngster
I started following Gary at Boston College in the early 80s
the Big East was known as the Coach's conference back then
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Gophers win.
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youngster
I started following Gary at Boston College in the early 80s
the Big East was known as the Coach's conference back then
The first time I paid any mind to OSU hoops was when Randy Ayers was rocking and rolling with Jimmy Jackson. I was in fifth grade.
Randy's brother coached my brother's HS basketball team, and one of his teammates was also named Jimmy Jackson. It made for quite the intimidation factor on the central Ohio HS basketball circuit. Especially since the coach looked exactly like Randy Ayers.
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Gophers win.
sorry Badge
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Good News for the Bucks, all 4 teams that ESPN had as the 1st 4 out all lost today.
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TT going down to the worst team in the XII may open up space for a(nother) Big Ten team in 2-seed range.
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sorry Badge
I was hoping they would win, actually.
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Lunardi moved OSU out of Dayton, dropped Maryland to a 6.
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One thing I don't like about the brackets this year is that there are few options for the 4/5 seeds. Outside of the Hartford pod, all the other ones head West.
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One thing I don't like about the brackets this year is that there are few options for the 4/5 seeds. Outside of the Hartford pod, all the other ones head West.
Is that always the case? Fees like a 4 doesn’t get much say.
Anyway, seems like an unusual concentration of top seeds in the upper South and Eastern Midwest. They’ve got a billion options for the Columbus and Columbia sites, Many of whose best alternatives are Iowa. Then Tulsa has its two 3s. So you have Jacksonville, which likely takes runoff Southern schools, so it’s Hartford and two to the west.
It probably also hurts balance that your best West schools are Gonzaga, Nevada and Utah State.
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Yeah, I think it's true more often than not. The 4's get shipped off to a land far, far away. I've seen UW get pushed out West a whole lot, it seems. If Lunardi were to hold, they would head to San Jose to play 13 seeded UC Irvine, which gets to stay a little closer to home. Grrr...
Ah well. After seeing them miss out last year, I'm happy they are back in the mix. They need to focus on today, and then see if they can possibly play their way to a 3. Doubt it, but it's fun to think about.
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Yeah, I think it's true more often than not. The 4's get shipped off to a land far, far away. I've seen UW get pushed out West a whole lot, it seems. If Lunardi were to hold, they would head to San Jose to play 13 seeded UC Irvine, which gets to stay a little closer to home. Grrr...
Ah well. After seeing them miss out last year, I'm happy they are back in the mix. They need to focus on today, and then see if they can possibly play their way to a 3. Doubt it, but it's fun to think about.
That would matter because of ... no time change? Certianly not because of fans.
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There are no perfect systems for selecting a "pure" champion. Still, we can disinguish championship formats based on how much wackiness they welcome.
Based only on weighted win probability, a 64-team tourney is as likely to crown a false champion as any system in sports. I guess I should define that - false champion. Obviously it's a relative term (winners of championships are technically always true champions). I mean "false champion" to describe a team that wins a national championship but was emphatically not in our "who's the best" consciousness during the regular season. Using the NCAA MBB tournament, the classic examples of this wackiness are that 6-, 7- and 8-seeds have won the NC before. 16-seed UMBC toppling #1 UVa is also infamous -- that is, great for entertainment, disappointing in terms of "pure champion" chalk.
By comparison, skipping a tournament to just put it to pollsters at the end of the regular season is boring. It'll never happen. And it wouldn't eliminate controversy anyway. But the wackiness quotient for it would be as low as is realistic in the college game (approximately the same as if there were a 2- or 4-team single elimination tournament).
You mentioned the NBA and NHL models. Because they discard with single elimination, those are neat comparisons and, yes, 3-, 5-, and 7-game series have (can have) even lower wackiness quotients than a 2-team single elimination championship game. Obviously the college game can't adopt too much of that. College kids can't have months-long tournaments, for one, and college games have a culture that can erode if it gets too derivative of the pros. Having said that, some NCAA sports already run this way. And the ice hockey conference championships that do are great, though the flipping between multi-game elimination rounds and a single-elimination final isn't exactly elegant. So even there there's room to improve.
If you want to trim the tournament down to 32 or even 16 teams....that's fine. But the way that I see it right now....the best team in the nation should be able to beat these teams that wouldn't even be invited to the hypothetical trimmed down tournament.
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Interesting.
Lunardi has Belmont as his last team in as a lot of borderline schools took some hits. What's more interesting is his next eight out includes seven teams now in the clubhouse. If Bama loses to UK today, that'd be eight. An 18-15 team with three Q1 wins and two Q3 losses is a rough one.
Interestingly, Jerry Palm has them flipped has Bama and UNCG in, I assume because he doesn't want to give up RPI.
Also, does anyone have any thoughts on the NC State SOS thing? It's either a call to arms or statistical lesson.
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The first time I paid any mind to OSU hoops was when Randy Ayers was rocking and rolling with Jimmy Jackson. I was in fifth grade.
Randy's brother coached my brother's HS basketball team, and one of his teammates was also named Jimmy Jackson. It made for quite the intimidation factor on the central Ohio HS basketball circuit. Especially since the coach looked exactly like Randy Ayers.
I feel old, I started following at the tail end of Fred Taylor. Watching Jimmy Clemmons smooth shooting with Jimmy Crums exclaiming "How about that!"
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Is that always the case? Fees like a 4 doesn’t get much say.
Anyway, seems like an unusual concentration of top seeds in the upper South and Eastern Midwest. They’ve got a billion options for the Columbus and Columbia sites, Many of whose best alternatives are Iowa. Then Tulsa has its two 3s. So you have Jacksonville, which likely takes runoff Southern schools, so it’s Hartford and two to the west.
It probably also hurts balance that your best West schools are Gonzaga, Nevada and Utah State.
It is always that way because there are always too many western sites. It is worse than normal this year because the PAC is horrible which means that there are even less western teams than usual.
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It is always that way because there are always too many western sites. It is worse than normal this year because the PAC is horrible which means that there are even less western teams than usual.
To expand on this: Here is a map of this year's eight NCAA first/second round sites (https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Hartford,+CT/Columbus,+OH/Columbia,+South+Carolina/Jacksonville,+FL/Tulsa,+OK/Des+Moines,+IA/Salt+Lake+City,+UT/San+Jose,+CA/@35.6925799,-106.4022376,5z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m50!4m49!1m5!1m1!1s0x89e65311f21151a5:0xcc8e4aa8e97d5999!2m2!1d-72.6733723!2d41.7658043!1m5!1m1!1s0x883889c1b990de71:0xe43266f8cfb1b533!2m2!1d-82.9987942!2d39.9611755!1m5!1m1!1s0x88f8a5697931d1e3:0xf32808f4b379fa96!2m2!1d-81.0348144!2d34.0007104!1m5!1m1!1s0x88e5b716f1ceafeb:0xc4cd7d3896fcc7e2!2m2!1d-81.655651!2d30.3321838!1m5!1m1!1s0x87b692b8ddd12e8f:0xe76910c81bd96af7!2m2!1d-95.992775!2d36.1539816!1m5!1m1!1s0x87ee99a4c1611ee7:0x710028512691e4b2!2m2!1d-93.6249593!2d41.5868353!1m5!1m1!1s0x87523d9488d131ed:0x5b53b7a0484d31ca!2m2!1d-111.8910474!2d40.7607793!1m5!1m1!1s0x808fcae48af93ff5:0xb99d8c0aca9f717b!2m2!1d-121.8863286!2d37.3382082!3e0?hl=en).
Note that there are two in the Rockies or West of the Rockies (SLC and San Jose). Here are the best teams from that area (per Lunardi):
- #1 Gonzaga
- #7 Nevada
- #8 Washington
Only three of the top 32 teams or 9.4% are located in or West of the Rockies. Two of the eight sites, however, makes up 25% of the available sites and consequently a slew of Eastern #4 and #5 seeds are going to get sent out west. Per Lunardi:
- #4 FSU has to travel all the way to SLC
- #4 Wisconsin has to travel all the way to San Jose
- #4 Kansas State has to travel all the way to San Jose
- #5 Auburn has to travel all the way to SLC
- #5 MissSt has to travel all the way to San Jose
- #5 VaTech has to travel all the way to San Jose
Maybe someday the NCAA will learn from this. In most years it works out such that there should only be ONE first/second round site in or west of the Rockies. They should do it by timezone:
- The Mountain and Pacific timezones should get a combined one site per year.
- The Central timezone should get two or three sites per year.
- The Eastern timezone should get four or five sites per year.
- In the years in which the Central timezone gets three sites, the Mountain/Pacific site should be in the Pacific timezone and in years in which the Central timezone gets two sites the Mountain/Pacific site should be in the Mountain timezone.
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To expand on this: Here is a map of this year's eight NCAA first/second round sites (https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Hartford,+CT/Columbus,+OH/Columbia,+South+Carolina/Jacksonville,+FL/Tulsa,+OK/Des+Moines,+IA/Salt+Lake+City,+UT/San+Jose,+CA/@35.6925799,-106.4022376,5z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m50!4m49!1m5!1m1!1s0x89e65311f21151a5:0xcc8e4aa8e97d5999!2m2!1d-72.6733723!2d41.7658043!1m5!1m1!1s0x883889c1b990de71:0xe43266f8cfb1b533!2m2!1d-82.9987942!2d39.9611755!1m5!1m1!1s0x88f8a5697931d1e3:0xf32808f4b379fa96!2m2!1d-81.0348144!2d34.0007104!1m5!1m1!1s0x88e5b716f1ceafeb:0xc4cd7d3896fcc7e2!2m2!1d-81.655651!2d30.3321838!1m5!1m1!1s0x87b692b8ddd12e8f:0xe76910c81bd96af7!2m2!1d-95.992775!2d36.1539816!1m5!1m1!1s0x87ee99a4c1611ee7:0x710028512691e4b2!2m2!1d-93.6249593!2d41.5868353!1m5!1m1!1s0x87523d9488d131ed:0x5b53b7a0484d31ca!2m2!1d-111.8910474!2d40.7607793!1m5!1m1!1s0x808fcae48af93ff5:0xb99d8c0aca9f717b!2m2!1d-121.8863286!2d37.3382082!3e0?hl=en).
Three maps:
- The eight first/second round sites (https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Hartford,+CT/Columbus,+OH/Columbia,+South+Carolina/Jacksonville,+FL/Tulsa,+OK/Des+Moines,+IA/Salt+Lake+City,+UT/San+Jose,+CA/@36.0636311,-103.9921197,4.74z/data=!4m50!4m49!1m5!1m1!1s0x89e65311f21151a5:0xcc8e4aa8e97d5999!2m2!1d-72.6733723!2d41.7658043!1m5!1m1!1s0x883889c1b990de71:0xe43266f8cfb1b533!2m2!1d-82.9987942!2d39.9611755!1m5!1m1!1s0x88f8a5697931d1e3:0xf32808f4b379fa96!2m2!1d-81.0348144!2d34.0007104!1m5!1m1!1s0x88e5b716f1ceafeb:0xc4cd7d3896fcc7e2!2m2!1d-81.655651!2d30.3321838!1m5!1m1!1s0x87b692b8ddd12e8f:0xe76910c81bd96af7!2m2!1d-95.992775!2d36.1539816!1m5!1m1!1s0x87ee99a4c1611ee7:0x710028512691e4b2!2m2!1d-93.6249593!2d41.5868353!1m5!1m1!1s0x87523d9488d131ed:0x5b53b7a0484d31ca!2m2!1d-111.8910474!2d40.7607793!1m5!1m1!1s0x808fcae48af93ff5:0xb99d8c0aca9f717b!2m2!1d-121.8863286!2d37.3382082!3e0?hl=en).
- The top-8 teams per Lunardi (#1 and #2 seeds) (https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Louisiana+State+University,+Baton+Rouge,+LA/University+of+Tennessee,+Knoxville,+TN/University+of+North+Carolina+at+Chapel+Hill,+Chapel+Hill,+NC/Duke+University,+Durham,+NC/University+of+Virginia,+Charlottesville,+VA/University+of+Kentucky,+Lexington,+KY/Michigan+State+University,+Trowbridge+Rd,+East+Lansing,+MI/Gonzaga+University,+East+Boone+Avenue,+Spokane,+WA/@42.8499597,-102.7688809,4.99z/data=!4m50!4m49!1m5!1m1!1s0x8626a723780e1ca3:0xcdb21f2e63145453!2m2!1d-91.1800023!2d30.4132579!1m5!1m1!1s0x885c17e0aa4a6f21:0xa4914a748b5294c!2m2!1d-83.9294564!2d35.9544013!1m5!1m1!1s0x89acc2d2cb17aaeb:0xb33bf0976497e0e0!2m2!1d-79.0469134!2d35.9049122!1m5!1m1!1s0x89ace6b201eb327f:0xb21f1655ee1ca38d!2m2!1d-78.9382286!2d36.0014258!1m5!1m1!1s0x89b38648b749c4dd:0x405108c2cc8b5846!2m2!1d-78.5079772!2d38.0335529!1m5!1m1!1s0x884244b6c5540c65:0x8eff9d4aee984267!2m2!1d-84.5039697!2d38.0306511!1m5!1m1!1s0x8822c259da888d63:0x6e9898ab05aa3b3f!2m2!1d-84.4821719!2d42.701848!1m5!1m1!1s0x549e18ebbb7aeffb:0xdb160d1679b907e7!2m2!1d-117.4015208!2d47.6664473!3e0?hl=en).
- The next-8 teams per Lunardi (#3 and #4 seeds) (https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Kansas+State+University,+Manhattan,+KS/Kansas+University,+Jayhawk+Boulevard,+Lawrence,+KS/University+of+Wisconsin-Madison,+Madison,+WI/University+of+Michigan,+500+S+State+St,+Ann+Arbor,+MI+48109/Purdue+University,+610+Purdue+Mall,+West+Lafayette,+IN+47907/Florida+State+University,+W+College+Ave,+Tallahassee,+FL/University+of+Houston,+Calhoun+Road,+Houston,+TX/Texas+Tech+University,+Broadway,+Lubbock,+TX/@37.5072106,-99.6782158,5.25z/data=!4m50!4m49!1m5!1m1!1s0x87bdcd8d57327449:0xd66f9bcdf791b75!2m2!1d-96.5847249!2d39.1974437!1m5!1m1!1s0x87bf6f32f3a8d673:0x53714e21ab238228!2m2!1d-95.2557961!2d38.9543439!1m5!1m1!1s0x8807ac950a7f481d:0xc9e065e091733a64!2m2!1d-89.4124875!2d43.076592!1m5!1m1!1s0x883cae38e7de1701:0x5ba14e5178e997e3!2m2!1d-83.7382241!2d42.2780436!1m5!1m1!1s0x8812fd37423e0507:0x8eccb2cf8b1a7c8e!2m2!1d-86.9211946!2d40.4237054!1m5!1m1!1s0x88ecf57078f21dd3:0x9c1b0fee7f5d86c8!2m2!1d-84.2984889!2d30.4418778!1m5!1m1!1s0x8640be5a8ebea199:0xc9f387eca8247e7!2m2!1d-95.3422334!2d29.7199489!1m5!1m1!1s0x8640c413f31ec847:0x52db374b7b07849!2m2!1d-101.8782822!2d33.5842591!3e0?hl=en).
When you open those three maps the ridiculous overage of Western NCAA sites becomes obvious if it wasn't already.
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Does Ohio State need to pull off an upset today or are they already safely in the tournament?
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Does Ohio State need to pull off an upset today or are they already safely in the tournament?
I think they’re in barring a rash of bid stealers.
Maybe if they lose by 45 people will feel somewhat different.
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If you want to trim the tournament down to 32 or even 16 teams....that's fine. But the way that I see it right now....the best team in the nation should be able to beat these teams that wouldn't even be invited to the hypothetical trimmed down tournament.
Except there's never been such a thing as a 100.0% chance of victory.
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One thing I don't like about the brackets this year is that there are few options for the 4/5 seeds. Outside of the Hartford pod, all the other ones head West.
There are too many games held in the west. Even ignoring the implosion of the PAC, the vast majority of basketball is played east of the Mississippi, but the regionals aren't proportioned that way.
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Also, does anyone have any thoughts on the NC State SOS thing? It's either a call to arms or statistical lesson.
Cliff's Notes on what you mean, please.
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I'll start with this. I wrote that last post on my phone. I didn't have the time to give it the fullest attention.
When I called it a half truth, I mean this.
As you said, a better team has a harder road. That's true. It plays tougher opponents.
But there's the other side of the coin. A small conference team winning a great proportion of its games often means nothing. The teams have no say over conference opponents. They can try to game non-conference opponents, but building those up without a national brand isn't easy. Back in the day, Memphis and Gonzaga would play each other when more traditional powers wouldn't. Everything comes down to a single-elimination tournament.
Can we at least agree that everything coming down to a three-day stretch is it's own kind of difficulty? Either that or winning 30 games?
When one set of teams gets a lot of leeway and the other doesn't, people won't like it. I don't contest that it's harder to win seven games in the Big 10 than 13 in the Patriot League. But there is a position where two more Big 10 wins count and 16 in the Pat league don't.
In aggregate, the smaller schools are favored. On an individual level, you'd rather be a team that could dance with 13 losses than head to the NIT with 3, even if the schedule is a different beast.
Overall, the structure of college sports works against small schools. This we know. And the way to get an at large berth is built on a certain resource, and small schools have relatively little access to it. They have a different brand of access. One with less margin for error and a crueler point when it is lost.
I see where you're coming from, and outside a few of the more snarly-parts generally agree. I hope you see a few of my points as somewhat solid, even if we don't fully agree.
I get where you are coming from and I don't think we are THAT far apart.
I get that a crappy-conference team winning a great proportion of its games often means nothing. I don't see anything wrong with that because it SHOULD mean nothing. Nobody would give a fringe NCAA team from a major conference any credit for winning games against HS teams, we shouldn't give crappy-conference teams credit for winning games against teams that aren't a challenge.
Sure, we can agree that everything coming down to a three-day stretch is its own kind of difficult. It REALLY sucks when you actually ARE the tallest midget but you have one bad game and lose the tallest midget competition (ie, crappy-conference championship) because then you are out. On that subject, I think that @MichiFan87 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=24) 's suggestion that 1-bid leagues should eliminate their tournaments has some merit.
"The structure of college sports works against small schools", I agree if you are talking money. This isn't a pro league where we can equalize the money. Fans and alums spend and some schools do better in that arena than others. If your school is lucky enough to count T. Boone Pickens (OkSU) or Phil Knight (Oregon) as an alum then you can build facilities and whatnot that most schools can only dream of. Outside of that, if you are in a conference that rakes in TV money then you have at least enough $$$$ to keep up. If you don't have either of those things well then you are probably playing BB in a glorified HS Gym.
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Regarding the argument about mid-majors' at-large chances compared to mediocre power-conference schools, the reality is that nobody is forcing those conferences to have a conference tournament. I really don't understand why some of them don't do away with them. The one upside is if the best team doesn't actually win the league in the regular season (no good examples in recent years but it happens occasionally) due to an inbalanced schedule, a stronger non-conference showing, or something else, but generally it results in a worse team representing the conference.
Conversely, South Dakota State and Hofstra would've been dangerous teams in the tournament and could make runs in the NIT. No disrespect to North Dakota State and Northeastern, but they're just not as good.... A few years ago was perhaps the most infamous example when Holy Cross won the Patriot League as a #8 seed. It just doesn't make sense that a team can hypothetically go 4-31 and make the NCAA tournament because they won those last 4 games. I know some leagues don't include everyone in their conference tournaments (the Ivy League even after it finally gave in to having one still limits it to their top 4), but most of them do.
I can think of another advantage, but it depends on the situation of the conference:
Looking at the MAC, they have one and only one team that could get an at-large bid. Buffalo is #15 in the NET and they are going to the NCAA Tournament no matter what. Buffalo plays CMU in a MAC semi-final today and the winner will play either UNI or BGSU tomorrow. The advantage of the tournament for the MAC is that they *MIGHT* get a second team in the NCAA. If Buffalo wins they will obviously be the only MAC team in the NCAA but if CMU, NIU, or BGSU manages to win it then the MAC will get two.
I think your point is interesting though because for a league with zero teams that could get an at-large bid I think you are right. For them the tournament generally just creates the possibility that their best team will miss out on the NCAA while some also-ran gets slaughtered.
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That was an interesting series. Nick Ward clips Wood in the head with an elbow while trying to clear space. Woods falls down in pain, the ball gets moved around and MSU gets an open 3. The refs then go to the monitor and determine there was a flagrant foul. But MSU keeps the points. Didn't realize that was the rule.
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I'm not a fan of that flagrant call, stipulating there s good reason to call it on flying elbows. That's not what I saw. Is that rule an absolute flagrant when there s contact like that?
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I'm not a fan of that flagrant call, stipulating there s good reason to call it on flying elbows. That's not what I saw. Is that rule an absolute flagrant when there s contact like that?
I believe the rule is any illegal contact with the elbow to an area above the shoulders (i.e. the head) is supposed to be a flagrant foul.
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Part of the reason everyone just shoots threes, you don't get room inside to do anything, then you get a flagrant.
Nothing about the first half went according to the scouting reports. The best players on both sides were largely invisible, OSU was actually making threes.
This is a game I'd prefer Beilein was coaching OSU, Wesson would have sat for the remainder of the half, rather than his coach trusting him not to pick up #3. That was huge.
OSU is defending MSU better than anyone I've seen all year. They are getting after it. Good scouting, good execution, good effort. MSU has gotten some junk to drop.
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OSU can't hit open 3s against anyone, and for the second straight game they hit every contested 3 against MSU. Have to be right around 50%
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This is a game I'd prefer Beilein was coaching OSU, Wesson would have sat for the remainder of the half, rather than his coach trusting him not to pick up #3. That was huge.
Welp.
He had 3 really bad games against MSU this year, and tha'ts been huge.
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Wesson must have taken the refs lunch money or something.
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There's a potential bid stealer situation about to occur in the A-10. VCU down 3 with 17 seconds left. I think I have seen that VCU is solidly in already, so if they drop this game, whoever wins the A-10 autobid will knock someone else out.
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Welp.
He had 3 really bad games against MSU this year, and tha'ts been huge.
His first game was really good, but the last two, yeah.
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MSU is the team that sees you take the lead and rips off a 23-9 run.
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VCU goes down, A10 just became a 2 bid league
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There are too many games held in the west. Even ignoring the implosion of the PAC, the vast majority of basketball is played east of the Mississippi, but the regionals aren't proportioned that way.
25% of the 1st and 2nd round games will be played in either MDT or PDT. I don't think that's all that excessive.
I get the point you're trying to make though, and yes, a relatively small percentage of D1 basketball is played in those two time zones, and yes, it sucks that 4 and 5 seeds have to travel well over 1,000 miles to play rinky-dink California schools in what basically amounts to being their own back yards, but honestly, there are high schools in Texas that have larger followings than said rinky-dink west coast schools, so at worst it'd be a true neutral court. I believe only 3 seeds and higher are offered any sort of geographical "protection" (i.e. either staying in their own region or time zone), and any geographical proximity for lower seeds would be purely coincidental.
And geography is virtually a non-factor when upsets happen in March Madness. Nine times out of ten, four seeds eat thirteen seeds for breakfast regardless of locale. Thirteen seeds occasionally upset four seeds due to hot shooting (or extremely poor shooting by the favorite), taking the favorite out of their comfort zone by playing a different tempo, or simply catching the favorite looking ahead.
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His first game was really good, but the last two, yeah.
He was good when he was in, but IIRC he got himself in foul trouble there, and had to go out when OSU had a big lead, and that flipped the game.
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I get where you are coming from and I don't think we are THAT far apart.
I get that a crappy-conference team winning a great proportion of its games often means nothing. I don't see anything wrong with that because it SHOULD mean nothing. Nobody would give a fringe NCAA team from a major conference any credit for winning games against HS teams, we shouldn't give crappy-conference teams credit for winning games against teams that aren't a challenge.
Sure, we can agree that everything coming down to a three-day stretch is its own kind of difficult. It REALLY sucks when you actually ARE the tallest midget but you have one bad game and lose the tallest midget competition (ie, crappy-conference championship) because then you are out. On that subject, I think that @MichiFan87 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=24) 's suggestion that 1-bid leagues should eliminate their tournaments has some merit.
"The structure of college sports works against small schools", I agree if you are talking money. This isn't a pro league where we can equalize the money. Fans and alums spend and some schools do better in that arena than others. If your school is lucky enough to count T. Boone Pickens (OkSU) or Phil Knight (Oregon) as an alum then you can build facilities and whatnot that most schools can only dream of. Outside of that, if you are in a conference that rakes in TV money then you have at least enough $$$$ to keep up. If you don't have either of those things well then you are probably playing BB in a glorified HS Gym.
That first sentence is correct, and should probably be the board slogan.
I mostly agree with MichiFan. The only reason to do the tournaments is money and attention. I get that places want it, and that tradeoff just is what it is. If I was a good team in it, I'd probably dislike it, but I get why the conferences do it.
To get a little philosophical here. There's a very finite resource at play here: games against good teams. They get you into the dance, but they also tell a team, "You are in fact not good enough for this." And there just aren't enough of those to go around. There's not enough good games to say "Hey UNCG, you're not at this level," or to say "Hey, maybe Buffalo is that good." (And some small schools wouldn't want it because 20 soft wins get something if you'd never dance anyway) Net is an indicator, but resumes always matter most. There is a little bleed around the edges, like if you give a certain level of not quite tallest midget 10 Q1 games, the win 1-2, and some Power conference teams would slip a time or two if there were 25 Q3 and 4 games, but that too is life.
Again, appreciate your perspective.
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VCU goes down, A10 just became a 2 bid league
Sorry Belmont and good luck TCU
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2005 Drew Neitzel 2.0?
This is the exact same thing that happened with Neitzel. Disappointing freshman year coming of Mr. Basketball, then suddenly exploded in the postseason to extend Izzo's bench, and his career took off from there
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Yeesh, Fab Five these guys are not. 15-2 run for OSU against MSU's five freshman. Might as well try fouling now, cut it from 20 to 7, still 20 seconds left
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Cliff's Notes on what you mean, please.
Sooo, writers on the twitters started waving around that bubble team NC State had the worst NC SOS in the whole damn country. This was one of those little nuggets you use in sports arguments for why they shouldn't be in.
Then you look at that schedule and you see the No. 16 and 17 teams in the next rankings. Surely there are schedules without multiple opponents of that caliber. But the reason that happened was basically the reverse of how people used to game RPI.
Basically, RPI or any SOS, everything matters, even in a super unbalanced sport like CBB. So if you schedule a bunch of home games vs teams in the 175 (13-17 Ohio) to 250 range (14-17 Eastern Washington) it kinda lifted things up. NC State seems to have done the opposite.
The Wolfpack managed to play eight opponents between 281-352, which will just murder your schedule. They got struck with a few bits of bad luck and one bit of good luck. Beyond the two good games, this is their schedule:
Penn State, a Q1 win, though you probably don't plan for it to be.
Vandy, a team that added two five-star recruits and a good 4-star and was supposed to be good, but managed to go 9-23
UNC Ashville and Mercer, two consistently solid mid to low majors who won 11 and 4 games
Six sort of irredeemable bad programs that are very bad.
I clearly feel that's not the end of the world. Not a good slate, not a killer. But it seemed to really stick for some people. Wanted to know if others had feelings.
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2005 Drew Neitzel 2.0?
This is the exact same thing that happened with Neitzel. Disappointing freshman year coming of Mr. Basketball, then suddenly exploded in the postseason to extend Izzo's bench, and his career took off from there
I hope not. That kid was a damn nightmare as a junior.
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MSU is good.
Wesson has a legit gripe about some of those fouls. (But he doesn't help his cause when he is throwing elbows.)
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That first sentence is correct, and should probably be the board slogan.
I love it!
"I get where you are coming from and I don't think we are THAT far apart."
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25% of the 1st and 2nd round games will be played in either MDT or PDT. I don't think that's all that excessive.
I get the point you're trying to make though, and yes, a relatively small percentage of D1 basketball is played in those two time zones, and yes, it sucks that 4 and 5 seeds have to travel well over 1,000 miles to play rinky-dink California schools in what basically amounts to being their own back yards, but honestly, there are high schools in Texas that have larger followings than said rinky-dink west coast schools, so at worst it'd be a true neutral court. I believe only 3 seeds and higher are offered any sort of geographical "protection" (i.e. either staying in their own region or time zone), and any geographical proximity for lower seeds would be purely coincidental.
And geography is virtually a non-factor when upsets happen in March Madness. Nine times out of ten, four seeds eat thirteen seeds for breakfast regardless of locale. Thirteen seeds occasionally upset four seeds due to hot shooting (or extremely poor shooting by the favorite), taking the favorite out of their comfort zone by playing a different tempo, or simply catching the favorite looking ahead.
It is excessive, massively so.
As you noted, 25% of the first/second round games are in either MDT (SLC) or PDT (San Jose). That sounds reasonable until you notice (from my post above) that only three of the top 32 teams (9.4%) are in MDT and PDT. Worse, two of those three (Nevada and Washington) are only barely in the top-32.
I don't think that the #4's are specifically excluded from "protection" and I think it is more of a sliding scale than you are thinking. Lets say, for example, that MSU wins the BTT and ends up with the fourth #1 seed. The closest first/second round site for the Spartans would be Columbus but even as a #1 seed they wouldn't get Columbus if #1 seeds Kentucky and Virginia were ahead of them and those two got Columbus.
What I am saying is that I think it is more of a sliding scale. I think they seed the bracket, then place the pods. When they place the pods they do it sequentially and place each pod leader (#1-#4 seed) in the best available remaining spot. Thus, if you are the first #1 seed you get the best possible spot and if you are the last #4 seed you get whatever is left.
If you want to know where the "extra" locations are, just look at where the #4 seeds went (because they naturally end up with whatever is left). In Lunardi's projections for this year:
- #4 Kansas is in Hartford, CT
- #4 FSU is in SLC
- #4 Wisconsin is in San Jose
- #4 KSU is in San Jose
There is your proof that it is excessive. Three of the four projected #4 seeds are EST/CST teams getting shipped out west to those extra sites.
Last year's #4 seeds:
- #4 Arizona was in Boise, ID
- #4 Wichita State was in San Diego
- #4 Gonzaga was in Boise, ID
- #4 Auburn was in San Diego
The two western teams (AZ/Gonzaga) played eastern opponents (Buffalo/UNC-G) in the first round and did or would have played eastern opponents (Kentucky/tOSU) in the second round. Note that the Western #4 seeds got a huge geographical advantage while the eastern #4 seeds got screwed. That is because there were too many western sites last year as well.
Hopefully someday the NCAA will realize that the vast majority of their teams and fans are in the EST Zone.
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Sooo, writers on the twitters started waving around that bubble team NC State had the worst NC SOS in the whole damn country. This was one of those little nuggets you use in sports arguments for why they shouldn't be in.
Then you look at that schedule and you see the No. 16 and 17 teams in the next rankings. Surely there are schedules without multiple opponents of that caliber. But the reason that happened was basically the reverse of how people used to game RPI.
Basically, RPI or any SOS, everything matters, even in a super unbalanced sport like CBB. So if you schedule a bunch of home games vs teams in the 175 (13-17 Ohio) to 250 range (14-17 Eastern Washington) it kinda lifted things up. NC State seems to have done the opposite.
The Wolfpack managed to play eight opponents between 281-352, which will just murder your schedule. They got struck with a few bits of bad luck and one bit of good luck. Beyond the two good games, this is their schedule:
Penn State, a Q1 win, though you probably don't plan for it to be.
Vandy, a team that added two five-star recruits and a good 4-star and was supposed to be good, but managed to go 9-23
UNC Ashville and Mercer, two consistently solid mid to low majors who won 11 and 4 games
Six sort of irredeemable bad programs that are very bad.
I clearly feel that's not the end of the world. Not a good slate, not a killer. But it seemed to really stick for some people. Wanted to know if others had feelings.
Gotcha. Yeah, I severely dislike the idea of ACC or Big Ten teams being dinged for a 1.000 win% against "too many" Q4 teams. Because for these conferences, Q1/Q2 volume is no object. I should be transparent though and admit I'm sensitized to this argument by the majority of the Beilein era.
John has a (bad) habit of wanting terrible teams on the schedule around Christmas. And before the new committee guidelines (team sheets, RPI v NET, etc.), that bad habit brutalized Michigan's seeding. I don't know the best measurement tool for tracking how underseeded a team is, but I suspect Michigan ranks near the top since 2009. Given their success this decade, Michigan's NCAAT "wins above expected" could be the best in the nation.
My recommendation would be that - for Big Ten/ACC-quality conferences - a 1.000 win% against "too many" Q4 teams should be entirely disregarded in seeding except as a SOS tiebreaker. Again, because these teams will all have sufficiently challenging Q1/Q2 schedules, and that's all the data we'll usually need. Just guessing here, but I'm bullish that Q1/Q2 record is more informative of caliber and predictive of NCAAT success than Q4 quantity.
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Apparently Winston missed practice this week with a foot injury from the UM game. So Loyer giving Winston quality minutes off the bench was a necessity not a luxury.
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#1 and #4 have advanced to the semi-finals. This continues a trend ever since we went to 14 teams of having very few substantial upsets.
So far this year the only upsets have been:
- #13 UNL over #12 RU
- #13 UNL over #5 UMD
Nebraska over Rutgers is not enough of an upset to even notice and Nebraska over Maryland was a bigger deal but had no impact on the semi-finals because Wisconsin took them out.
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Wisconsin looked like it was going to play well, and then played pretty terribly, and then won anyway. I will take that quadrant 2. win, 23rd overall victory of the year, and enjoy it.
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For Michigan, starting up next:
(1) I really dislike this Iowa match-up. Garza is a defensive liability versus most teams, but that's not how Michigan attacks, which takes Iowa's biggest weakness off the table.
(2) It's weird having a double bye after the last two years of winning the tourney in 4 games.
(3) I really want to play Purdue again. Not for the extra NCAAT seeding opportunity as much as for general fun. Over the last 10 years, M-PU has been the most fun match-up for me. Especially now. The coaching chess match is more obvious to me in this game than any other Michigan plays, and the way Beilein and Painter talk about each other in every postgame presser is authentic and smiley. Would love to have another dose.
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Wisconsin looked like it was going to play well, and then played pretty terribly, and then won anyway. I will take that quadrant 2. win, 23rd overall victory of the year, and enjoy it.
So.. I had a project coordination meeting today with the head architect on one of my jobs. Shame on me for taking a project with an architect who went to IIT (no sporting interest). Dammit. But, maybe it's good I didn't get to see it. On, Wisconsin!!
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RAH RAH RAH for SKI U MAH!!
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Well there goes my dream to play Purdue and have a super fun game. UMinn is actually one of my least favorite teams to play. Again, not because of win probability. Just about style and how I feel about their coach.
None of this is to assume a win versus Iowa, of course. About which, still, nervousness and yeesh.
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VCU goes down, A10 just became a 2 bid league
are any of these scripted ?
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Go B1G WEST!!
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So.. I had a project coordination meeting today with the head architect on one of my jobs. Shame on me for taking a project with an architect who went to IIT (no sporting interest). Dammit. But, maybe it's good I didn't get to see it. On, Wisconsin!!
Can in interest you in a game where UW went up 13 after eight minutes, then let the lead dwindle and dwindle and played almost the whole second half within five points? There were also 17 UW turnovers.
(He's probably a better hands-on person coming from a smaller school)
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This offense has been missing these attempts by Livers. He's always had such a smooth shot.
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I really love the idea of Michigan waking for the postseason again. 🤞
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Can in interest you in a game where UW went up 13 after eight minutes, then let the lead dwindle and dwindle and played almost the whole second half within five points? There were also 17 UW turnovers.
(He's probably a better hands-on person coming from a smaller school)
Heh. Glad I didn't see it. :)
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I really love the idea of Michigan waking for the postseason again. 🤞
Beware Iowa. No quit. Fran spooky.
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Beware Iowa. No quit. Fran spooky.
I'm with you. Even now. But beware Beilein in the postseason, too. He's been the Big Ten's best at that phase since 2013. Weird how easily I forget that *every* year. Often underwhelming in the regular season (relatively), which I guess explains that cycle.
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Xavier with 11 assists. 12 would have been a record. But speaking of records, Michigan now has it in terms of BTT wins - 9 consecutive. Gophers up next.
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I know nobody cares, but the officiating in the Big East games tonight has been nuts. Between the ejections and clamping down on every touch, the games have been brutal. So many quick Ts, most on SH. I know I can't hear what is said, but it's Stasi like. Gotta be 65 FTA already. Duke and UNC was a pleasure to watch.
over 80 FTAs now. Too bad Howard has this wrist issue tonight. He's missed 5. I don't think he missed 35 all season. He's a 90% shooter.
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I was hoping for a Marquette win, actually. Far cry from the old Big East, eh? Do they still give 6 fouls? Back in the day (the early days) it seemed like they allowed 15 fouls. They played rough!!
Is Bill Murray's son still coaching at Xavier? If so, I'm super-glad they lost.
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I'm with you. Even now. But beware Beilein in the postseason, too. He's been the Big Ten's best at that phase since 2013. Weird how easily I forget that *every* year. Often underwhelming in the regular season (relatively), which I guess explains that cycle.
Heh. Beilein is really good at his job. I had my doubts at first (like many did) but the patience has paid off.
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(https://www.bing.com/th?id=OIP.oDI4z21ZkoBZuJ68OT7ecgHaEK&pid=Api&dpr=1)
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some good hoops
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The Badgers will need a lot more from Happ to beat MSU today. He didn't do much of anything yesterday. UW had to win without him. That's not going to work today.
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Looks so far like the Badgers are going to get torched today. That, combined with Rafferty and the MSU fans' constant "groan" might make this a short watch for me.
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MSU plus bombing 3s=beatdown
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Matthews' return was huge last night, especially defensively and for depth. I figured Iowa couldn't possibly have a second great game in a row either. Michigan still played Brooks more than expected, but at least he hit a 3 and did well on defense, and presumably it was to prevent Simpson and Poole from getting tired today and hypothetically tomorrow.
Simpson's hook shot in front of the rim (as opposed to from the side) was his most impressive yet, along with 2 3s and getting a double-double.
I like Michigan's chances today, considering they've beaten Minnesota both times this year, and convincingly in Minneapolis, and then it's looking like we'd get another rematch with Sparty tomorrow....
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and then it's looking like we'd get another rematch with Sparty tomorrow....
The Badgers were down by 17. They are now down by 8 at the half, FYI.
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How many bunnies can Happ miss today? UW would be up right now if he makes these things. Same goes for Reuvers. Any time you want to make one, have at it.
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Sickening to watch this. Both teams suck right now, but UW is winning the suck.
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Five years ago today I watched MSU/UW go to OT in the B1GCG in the United Center. I visited with Marcel/@nuwildcat earlier that weekend.
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Five years ago today I watched MSU/UW go to OT in the B1GCG in the United Center. I visited with Marcel/@nuwildcat earlier that weekend.
I'm glad you get to keep that memory.
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UW missed 11 layups and was at like 56 percent on them before deep garbage time. UW was 2-19 on 3s, something like 2-17 before deep garbage time.
Can't win that way.
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Only a parent could look at that game and be proud.
Maybe.
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I'm curious how often M has held its opponent to under-20 in the first half this season.
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If it's true and Michigan has finally found a classic Beilein 3-Pt rhythm to pair with the Big Ten's best defense, they'll absolutely bludgeon teams. This is not a team we've seen. Again ... if it's true. And Iowa and Minnesota are maybe not the best test cases.
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Another dominant win. This is the best they've played since the North Carolina, Villanova, and Purdue games. I'm really looking forward to tomorrow. I think they'll be ready. It was nice to get the starters out early today.
In more serious news, there's an active shooter reported in Ann Arbor right now. Hopefully nothing happens.... Update - Apparently it was a false alarm thankfully.
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(https://media1.tenor.com/images/aa1df3365e2d3c3c7ee5c9154f6f5458/tenor.gif?itemid=4835499)
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Lines (not Vegas):
Michigan State –1, 53% to win (Kenpom)
Michigan –2.1, 59% to win (Torvik)
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My prediction is for a team from Michigan to win the B1G Tournament Championship.
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BracketMatrix now has Purdue slipped down to a 4... And not only a 4, but the 2nd 4 seed behind Kansas.
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Tennessee looks like Wisconsin today.
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Bruce Pearl builds weird dumb teams. His AUburn teams haven't been weird and dumb like his Vols teams. Hope this is a sign that's shifting.
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(https://bigten.org/common/controls/image_handler.aspx?thumb_id=0&image_path=/images/2019/3/16/2019_MBBTourney_Bracket_AFTER_RD_4.jpg)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D11N0QBXcAAvWkK.jpg)
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Is Gonzaga still guaranteed a #1 seed? Given their Q1 record, my opinion is that they may have never deserved it and that they deserve it less with the tourney loss.
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I didn't see it, but that's awful for Ahrens
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Why couldn't we just lose yesterday? Another season ending injury playing for a meaningless title.
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Why couldn't we just lose yesterday? Another season ending injury playing for a meaningless title.
Since the NCAAT matters more, I get what you mean, but calling this meaningless is antithetical to the NCAA basketball spirit, which unlike other sports values all of March significantly more than the regular season or (at the least) treats conference tourneys as somehow equal to the reg. By the way, my disposition agrees with you, the reg > BTT to me, but I've always felt at serious odds with the sport on that.
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I missed why but the Michiga boards are really sharpening their knives re: Poole. Hmm, that was dark. But they're mad.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/orion_sang/status/1107377040842522624
Even Kithier got 6 straight prime minutes over Ward. I want M to match up v Ward. That's the best matchup.
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I'm disappointed to be this superficial but ...
Why is McQuaid's beard only on his Adam's apple?
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Since the NCAAT matters more, I get what you mean, but calling this meaningless is antithetical to the NCAA basketball spirit, which unlike other sports values all of March significantly more than the regular season or (at the least) treats conference tourneys as somehow equal to the reg. By the way, my disposition agrees with you, the reg > BTT to me, but I've always felt at serious odds with the sport on that.
It's like Maui, but the week before the real thing.
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It's like Maui, but the week before the real thing.
Tell that to the banners and autobids (for the conferences where it's essential, at least). But say the same about the sport. No one hangs banners for Maui. And this banner is just as large as the others.
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Tell that to the banners and autobids (for the conferences where it's essential, at least). But say the same about the sport. No one hangs banners for Maui. And this banner is just as large as the others.
MSU doesn't hang BTT banners. Or they did at one point, and stopped, and took the existing ones down.
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That OOB call was monstrous. Edit, I still feel Tillman's arm powered through between Teske's hands to tomahawk it out. I guess I don't understand the rule.
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MSU is the beast in the second half
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Congrats on the second championship, MSU.
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Ef:
https://twitter.com/JDue51/status/1107396562341322753
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Quite the title bout.
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Just another repeat of the first two games except lower-scoring. Michigan played well in the first half and should've been able to control the game from there. They lost their minds on offense in the middle of the second half and couldn't guard McQuaid for some reason. The refs were good early and bad late, but that shouldn't have mattered.
Just hoping Michigan gets into the DC regional bracket....
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Is Gonzaga still guaranteed a #1 seed? Given their Q1 record, my opinion is that they may have never deserved it and that they deserve it less with the tourney loss.
The fact that there is even talk about gifting Gonzaga a#1 seed is just more proof of the massive favoritism for crappy-conference teams.
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Izzo doing Izzo things
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Sparty rewarded by being in Duke's region
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Good for Belmont
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Sparty rewarded by being in Duke's region
No Final 4 this year.
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The fact that there is even talk about gifting Gonzaga a#1 seed is just more proof of the massive favoritism for crappy-conference teams.
Zags #2 overall on Kenpom
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Badgers get served a shit sandwich with a 5 seed in San Jose. They get to play 12 seeded Oregon.
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Badgers get served a shit sandwich with a 5 seed in San Jose. They get to play 12 seeded Oregon.
I wanted Irvine
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Setting up for a Texas Tech - Michigan rock fest
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I like the draw for the Bucks. Would rather play an offensive team, have a chance to ugly the game.
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I wanted Irvine
Well, yeah. That would have been better. Clearly the NET rankings did not matter to the committee, seeing that KSU got the 4 seed with a 24 rank, while UW is 17.
Iowa got the hose job too, having to play Cincy on Ohio soil. There are quite a few head-scratchers in this one.
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Gonzaga, my ass.
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PAC with 3 teams. WTF.
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Michigan got a pretty good draw. Montana is a rematch from last year, Nevada is good but hasn't beaten anyone that good this year, and Florida hasn't beaten anyone really good except LSU.
Texas Tech is also a defensive-oriented team, of course, Michigan beat Florida State last year, Marquette is inconsistent, and obviously Gonzaga is really good.
Michigan would have a strong turnout in Anaheim, much like LA last year, assuming they get to the second weekend.
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Also, the ACC with 3 1 seeds is laughable. The bottom of that conference is horrible. MSU, at a minimum, deserved a 1. I'd argue for Michigan too.
The B1G got no respect at all today.
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Well, proven wrong about being paired with dook, but knew the B1G went through Michigan this year.
So disinterested, I forgot this was on tonight.
Who cares.
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Zags #2 overall on Kenpom
MSU #4 and UM #5 in KenPom
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No Final 4 this year.
Your negativity towards your team has helped you so far this year.
In full force, I knew Michigan State could win the Big Ten easily. They still pulled it off short-handed.
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Your negativity towards your team has helped you so far this year.
In full force, I knew Michigan State could win the Big Ten easily. They still pulled it off short-handed.
We can't beat Duke . Izzo is like 1-12 all time against K. If someone else beats Duke, MSU can make it. If not, we won't beat Duke.
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We can't beat Duke . Izzo is like 1-12 all time against K. If someone else beats Duke, MSU can make it. If not, we won't beat Duke.
VT has a chance, no? I haven't looked at it closely. I saw who we were up against, and honestly, I hope we lose to Belmont.
Maybe that will get Turgeon out of town.
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OSU draws the big bad ISU Cyclones.
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OSU draws the big bad ISU Cyclones.
I'd feel better about that if it was football.
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VT has a chance, no? I haven't looked at it closely. I saw who we were up against, and honestly, I hope we lose to Belmont.
Maybe that will get Turgeon out of town.
What coach would you rather have a this point?
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What coach would you rather have a this point?
I haven't got that far. Turgeon and his record vs ranked teams, his in game coaching, his excuses, the lack of player development, you name it, he's got to go.
Roy Williams once said that the Maryland job was a dream job, because you wouldn't have to go far to recruit, and he's right. Something Turgeon has done here, but he flat out can't coach.
I'd take any up and comer who made the tournament the past few years. Someone who flat out coaches, because the recruits are there.
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I'd feel better about that if it was football.
You think that the Clones stand a better chance of besting the Buckeyes on the gridiron?
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The fact that there is even talk about gifting Gonzaga a#1 seed is just more proof of the massive favoritism for crappy-conference teams.
But oh man as a #2 seed, that's the regional you want. So happy about this draw.
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You think that the Clones stand a better chance of besting the Buckeyes on the gridiron?
OSU would destroy ISU on grass/turf. On wood, I don't like the matchup.
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Michigan is the only B1G team that got a good draw. B1G Jim still has pull, apparently.
The apple of his eye done good.
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I don't put much stock in Jim Delany conspiracies. I mean maybe the ones having to do with expansion and TV contracts but not the ones having to do with competitive advantages in games/tournaments. It's better to assume the committee is fully independent - at least until we have conclusive evidence to the contrary. But even for those who insist on the conspiracy now, it's weird how everyone has a different opinion about "the apple of his eye." Michigan conspiracyists insist it's the opposite of M, for example.
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I dont think MSU has a very hard draw to get to the E8. Minny/Ville in round two doesnt seem hard. We lost on the road to Ville with McQuaid out, it was the only game all year Cash fouled out of, and Goins/Henry were not near the players then that they are now.
Then the 3/6 seeds you have an LSU with no coach and the team I think is the worst 3 seed and Maryland team lost 3 of their last 4 including games vs PSU and Neb.
I get Duke looms large but I dont think MSU has the worst draw ever.
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Also, the ACC with 3 1 seeds is laughable. The bottom of that conference is horrible. MSU, at a minimum, deserved a 1. I'd argue for Michigan too.
The B1G got no respect at all today.
I agree on MSU. As regular season (shared with PU) and tournament champions I thought they deserved it.
Michigan is a tougher case to make. They had a great overall record but not quite MSU's SoS and the 0-3 record against the Spartans obviously makes it nearly impossible to put the Wolverines ahead of the Spartans. Ie, I think you *COULD* justify putting a team that went 0-3 ahead of the team that they went 0-3 against but only if the overall records were wildly unequal in favor of the team that went 0-3 in the H2H match-ups.
Example:
Last year Ohio State went 0-3 against Penn State. In spite of that the Buckeyes finished six games ahead of the Nittany Lions in conference (15-3 vs 9-9), and had a better overall record. This year MSU went 3-0 against Michigan, had a better conference record, and the same overall record.
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But oh man as a #2 seed, that's the regional you want. So happy about this draw.
And back to the stupidity of that game. It clearly meant nothing to the selection committee as far as favorable draws go.
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Hopefully the new commish will bump the tournament by a day, so that the final game is on Saturday.
And yeah, Michigan got a HUGE favor here.
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Hopefully the new commish will bump the tournament by a day, so that the final game is on Saturday.
And yeah, Michigan got a HUGE favor here.
And back to the stupidity of that game. It clearly meant nothing to the selection committee as far as favorable draws go.
This has been a recurring theme on this board (and the predecessor boards) for years. I think we all have concluded that there are generally only two instances in which the B1GCG has any impact on NCAA seeding:
- If one of the teams clearly cannot make the tournament without the auto-bid. In that case I think the committee simply makes an alternative bracket only to add a low-seeded B1G Champion if necessary.
- If two teams are near-equal and both are right on the line for a higher seed. Ie, if the committee would have decided that the M/MSU winner was going to get the last #1 seed. In that case I think that the committee would have made two alternative brackets one with Michigan as a #1 seed, and one with MSU as a #1 seed.
Having the B1GCG right before they announce the field is great if your team loses the B1GCG, it sucks if your team wins the B1GCG.
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I think the committee completed its bracket at halftime of the B1GCCG, yesterday.
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The whole evaluating teams based on who is on the court needs to go, because they can't even figure it out. Just rate a team based on its actual resume. They seemed to disregard everything that Duke did without Zion...but then also credit UNC for beating Duke twice without him.
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Michigan smoked UNC. The latter also lost to Kentucky OOC. They got way too much love, but that's an NCAA thing, period, top-to-bottom with that school. They shouldn't even be eligible right now, but that's another story.
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I dont think MSU has a very hard draw to get to the E8. Minny/Ville in round two doesnt seem hard. We lost on the road to Ville with McQuaid out, it was the only game all year Cash fouled out of, and Goins/Henry were not near the players then that they are now.
Eh, Louisville is #17 in KenPom, ahead of 8 teams that earned 3, 4, 5 or 6 seeds.
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Per BPI
Meanwhile, North Carolina’s chances to reach the Final Four increased 11 percent to 41 percent after the bracket reveal and Gonzaga’s chances increased 13 percent to 65 percent. These increases are largely explained by the fact that neither team has Michigan State in its region.
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From the Sporting News
March Madness 2019: Selection committee should be embarrassed for mishandling Michigan State
CHICAGO — If you have a computer and understand how to navigate to the MapQuest website — which requires simply for you to type "MapQuest" into a search engine and click on it — you have access to the same sort of tool the NCAA Tournament selection committee employed to screw Michigan State out of what it spent four months of basketball earning.
It was a process so grueling two of the Spartans' most important players wore walking boots as they joined the assembly Sunday afternoon to accept the Big Ten Tournament championship trophy, Kyle Ahrens, supporting himself on crutches, and Joshua Langford, rolling along on a knee scooter.
They were proud when they were done beating Michigan for the third time, delighted and smiling and dancing on the floor of the United Center. No MSU team had ever slapped a three-game sweep on its in-state rival.
Inside of a half-hour, the Spartans discovered it hadn't been worth the bother.
The selection committee for the NCAA Tournament determined the win over the Wolverines slid MSU past Kentucky and into the sixth position on the seed list, making the Spartans the second-strongest No. 2 seed behind Tennessee. That meant they would be placed in their "natural and closest region possible," according to committee chair Bernard Muir. Well, Michigan State has been in the Midwest for as long as it has been in Michigan, which is in the Midwest.
But the Spartans will be playing in the East Region.
How could this possibly be?
Head on over to MapQuest, where you will discover it is 591 miles from East Lansing to Washington D.C., as opposed to 711 miles from East Lansing to Kansas City.
That's right. The committee members decided the Spartans would rather travel 120 fewer miles and be bracketed to face the tournament's No. 1 overall seed, Duke, and Sporting News Player of the Year Zion Williamson.
"We don't look at the matchups, necessarily," Muir said after the bracket had been revealed. "It's more trying to assign teams to their natural and closest regions."
I'm sorry. I was under the impression this was an athletic competition. I'd been told the committee was spending six days in New York in order to select the most deserving teams to add to the automatic qualifiers and then to order them 1-68.
What is the purpose of placing them in order if it's not to contrive the fairest and most equitable competition possible?
How can the members of the men's basketball committee not be embarrassed at this preposterous lack of logic?
If the tournament is not constructed so as the best teams can be legitimately close to home — the sort of on-the-fly, play-on-your-homecourt operation the NIT runs until the semifinalists head to New York and Madison Square Garden — what possible benefit are they expected to derive from being slightly closer to home? How could anyone believe there is value inherent in traveling on a plane for 35 fewer minutes?
Duke is not an impenetrable team, but they are the committee’s No. 1 overall team for a reason. That reason is Williamson, who has been on the floor for only two Duke defeats. With him, they won the ACC Tournament by defeating fellow No. 1 seed North Carolina and No. 4 West seed Florida State.
You can be certain every coach entering the tournament, especially those believing they had a serious chance at the Final Four, began Sunday hoping to be placed in one of the three regions Williamson would not occupy. Michigan State earned the right to be elsewhere by ranking as not the least of the No. 2 seeds, or the second-least, but as the second-best. The logical place to put the Spartans at that point was — can you imagine? — the Midwest.
North Carolina is no bargain. The Tar Heels are tremendous. But they were the third of the No. 1 seeds for a reason, also. They lost games to half the teams on the top two lines. That certainly seems more inviting than an evening with Zion and his biceps.
The most amazing element of Sunday's bracket reveal as it related to the Spartans is the Michigan team they beat for the Big Ten title — the team they beat last weekend for a share of the regular-season title and two weeks before that to set up all of this — will head to the West Region for a possible matchup with the No. 1 seed the committee respected least, the Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Michigan won by losing. (And losing. And losing again.)
For all the griping about mid-major teams not getting a fair shot for at-large bids, VCU made it in easily, and Belmont will play in the First Four. Those advancing the misguided notion the "little guy" gets a raw deal are missing the greatest flaw in the selection process. It has been the same since I first visited Indianapolis for the mock selection process roughly a decade ago and saw how all this is done. The problem is the fixation with the minutiae of geography. This might be the most outrageous application of that absurdity.
Michigan State's chances of reaching the Final Four decreased immeasurably because of the distance of 120 miles. If only the MSU campus had been in Muskegon. The Spartans might have gotten the draw they earned.
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Well, yeah. That would have been better. Clearly the NET rankings did not matter to the committee, seeing that KSU got the 4 seed with a 24 rank, while UW is 17.
Iowa got the hose job too, having to play Cincy on Ohio soil. There are quite a few head-scratchers in this one.
The NET rankings have some pretty clear issues that the NCAA will need to iron out. NC State for example is a major outlier. And I'm not terribly pleased with how the NET rankings viewed the Gophers. Rated #61 prior to the Big Ten Tournament. Both Indiana and Penn State were viewed much more favorably despite worse records. Efficiency is weighted far to heavy and SOS doesn't seem to matter much.....which is why NC State was so highly rated despite having the worst strength of schedule in division 1 basketball. If the season would have ended prior to the Big Ten Tournament.....and NET was the primary tool used for the selection committee.....the Gophers would have been left out. And who even knows what their NET ranking is now.
And I don't exactly love the draw. Louisville will be a good test.....but I'm with MSU fans......they should have gotten a #1 seed. It sucks that if the Gophers win their first round matchup.....they'll have to play MSU.
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And I don't exactly love the draw. Louisville will be a good test.....but I'm with MSU fans......they should have gotten a #1 seed. It sucks that if the Gophers win their first round matchup.....they'll have to play MSU.
I don't mind MSU being a 2 seed. But winding up in the bracket with the #1 overall seed makes no sense. If MSU was a #2 in any other bracket I'd be plenty ok with it.
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Weird selection. I can't believe that MSU will have to potentially go through Minnesota and Maryland to even get to Duke. Minnesota and Maryland, despite their records, are two of the toughest matchups in the B1G because they each have two legit bigs that play together. That means that one of MSU's biggest advantages [Ward+Goins playing together] is somewhat negated.
For Purdue, I can't complain much. Old Dominion has very little offense and shouldn't give us much trouble. Then it's Villanova or St Mary's. Decent opponents, but not terrifying. Tennessee could be a shootout game, and heck if Purdue makes the Sweet Sixteen with this roster, I'm pretty happy with that. Anything else is gravy, but I think if we're shooting well, we can hang with Tennessee, and if they've gone cold earlier in the tourney, we might be facing Cincinnati or Iowa.
If we make the Elite Eight? I'm not sure Virginia will still be around. Their style of play makes them potential upset territory if they run into a hot-shooting team, just as the Purdue and Wisconsin teams of old. They're 353rd in tempo according to KenPom. So despite the amazing defense, if a team is hitting shots (like Minnesota did against Purdue in the BTT), they're beatable.
It's certainly not an easy bracket--none of them are [except maybe the West]. But I think Purdue as a 3 has a MUCH easier road than MSU as a 2.
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Standard Performance by seed, what to expect from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament:
- We have two #2 seeds (MSU, M). Based on past performance of #2 seeds, they each have a 92.12% chance to win the opening 2/15 game and a 62.5% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Cumulatively, these two should get 1.88 R32 berths and 1.25 S16 berths.
- We have one #3 seed (PU). Based on past performance of #3 seeds, they have an 84.56% chance to win the opening 3/14 game and a 51.47% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
- We have one #5 seed (UW). Based on past performance of #5 seeds, they have a 65.44% chance to win the opening 5/12 game and a 33.82% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
- We have one #6 seed (UMD). Based on past performance of #6 seeds, they have a 62.5% chance to win the opening 6/11 game and a 30.88% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
- We have two #10 seeds (MN, IA). Based on past performance of #10 seeds, they each have a 38.24% chance to pull the upset in the 7/10 game and a 16.91% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Cumulatively, these two should get 0.76 R32 berths and 0.34 S16 berths.
- We have one #11 seed (tOSU). Based on past performance of #11 seeds, they have a 37.5% chance to pull the upset in the 6/11 game and a 16.18% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
As we watch the first weekend, here is what our eight teams cumulatively should produce:
- 5.14 teams should make it to the round of 32. Thus, if we have five alive as of Friday night that is about average. Six is better than average, four is worse than average. Anything more than six is REALLY good and anything less than four is REALLY bad.
- 2.91 teams should make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Thus, if we have three teams in the Sweet Sixteen that is slightly better than average. If we have two, that is below average. One or less would be REALLY bad. Four or more would be REALLY good.
I don't think anyone other than possibly @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) will care, but here is the math behind all of that:
Seed | R64 | R32 |
1 | 99.26% | 85.29% |
2 | 94.12% | 62.50% |
3 | 84.56% | 51.47% |
4 | 79.41% | 47.06% |
5 | 65.44% | 33.82% |
6 | 62.50% | 30.88% |
7 | 61.76% | 19.85% |
8 | 50.00% | 9.56% |
9 | 50.00% | 5.15% |
10 | 38.24% | 16.91% |
11 | 37.50% | 16.18% |
12 | 34.56% | 14.71% |
13 | 20.59% | 4.41% |
14 | 15.44% | 1.47% |
15 | 5.88% | 0.74% |
16 | 0.74% | 0.00% |
Seed | Team1 | Team2 | Teams | R32 % | S16 % | R32 Teams | S16 Teams |
2 | MSU | M | 2 | 94.12% | 62.50% | 1.882353 | 1.25 |
3 | PU | n/a | 1 | 84.56% | 51.47% | 0.845588 | 0.514706 |
5 | UW | n/a | 1 | 65.44% | 33.82% | 0.654412 | 0.338235 |
6 | UMD | n/a | 1 | 62.50% | 30.88% | 0.625 | 0.308824 |
10 | MN | IA | 2 | 38.24% | 16.91% | 0.764706 | 0.338235 |
11 | tOSU | n/a | 1 | 37.50% | 16.18% | 0.375 | 0.161765 |
Total | - | - | - | - | - | 5.147059 | 2.911765 |
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Thinking of it another way, based on past performance one of our top-5 teams should lose their first round game and one of our bottom-3 teams should win their first round game.
On average our eight teams, based on their seeds, should get a cumulative total of about five spots in the round of 32. However, it isn't as simple as saying that the top-5 should win and the bottom three should lose. Nope, on average, one of our highly seeded teams should lose and one of our lower seeds should win.
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Yep. For example, there's only a 40.9% likelihood of BOTH UW and MD making the round of 32. For the top 5 seeds to go 5-0 in the R64 is only 30.6% likely.
While at the same time the likelihood that the bottom three seeds will go 0-3 is only 23.8%, or inverted, there is a 76.2% chance that one or more teams in that bottom three will win a game.
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From the Sporting News
March Madness 2019: Selection committee should be embarrassed for mishandling Michigan State
CHICAGO — If you have a computer and understand how to navigate to the MapQuest website — which requires simply for you to type "MapQuest" into a search engine and click on it — you have access to the same sort of tool the NCAA Tournament selection committee employed to screw Michigan State out of what it spent four months of basketball earning.
It was a process so grueling two of the Spartans' most important players wore walking boots as they joined the assembly Sunday afternoon to accept the Big Ten Tournament championship trophy, Kyle Ahrens, supporting himself on crutches, and Joshua Langford, rolling along on a knee scooter.
They were proud when they were done beating Michigan for the third time, delighted and smiling and dancing on the floor of the United Center. No MSU team had ever slapped a three-game sweep on its in-state rival.
Inside of a half-hour, the Spartans discovered it hadn't been worth the bother.
The selection committee for the NCAA Tournament determined the win over the Wolverines slid MSU past Kentucky and into the sixth position on the seed list, making the Spartans the second-strongest No. 2 seed behind Tennessee. That meant they would be placed in their "natural and closest region possible," according to committee chair Bernard Muir. Well, Michigan State has been in the Midwest for as long as it has been in Michigan, which is in the Midwest.
But the Spartans will be playing in the East Region.
How could this possibly be?
Head on over to MapQuest, where you will discover it is 591 miles from East Lansing to Washington D.C., as opposed to 711 miles from East Lansing to Kansas City.
That's right. The committee members decided the Spartans would rather travel 120 fewer miles and be bracketed to face the tournament's No. 1 overall seed, Duke, and Sporting News Player of the Year Zion Williamson.
"We don't look at the matchups, necessarily," Muir said after the bracket had been revealed. "It's more trying to assign teams to their natural and closest regions."
I'm sorry. I was under the impression this was an athletic competition. I'd been told the committee was spending six days in New York in order to select the most deserving teams to add to the automatic qualifiers and then to order them 1-68.
What is the purpose of placing them in order if it's not to contrive the fairest and most equitable competition possible?
How can the members of the men's basketball committee not be embarrassed at this preposterous lack of logic?
If the tournament is not constructed so as the best teams can be legitimately close to home — the sort of on-the-fly, play-on-your-homecourt operation the NIT runs until the semifinalists head to New York and Madison Square Garden — what possible benefit are they expected to derive from being slightly closer to home? How could anyone believe there is value inherent in traveling on a plane for 35 fewer minutes?
Duke is not an impenetrable team, but they are the committee’s No. 1 overall team for a reason. That reason is Williamson, who has been on the floor for only two Duke defeats. With him, they won the ACC Tournament by defeating fellow No. 1 seed North Carolina and No. 4 West seed Florida State.
You can be certain every coach entering the tournament, especially those believing they had a serious chance at the Final Four, began Sunday hoping to be placed in one of the three regions Williamson would not occupy. Michigan State earned the right to be elsewhere by ranking as not the least of the No. 2 seeds, or the second-least, but as the second-best. The logical place to put the Spartans at that point was — can you imagine? — the Midwest.
North Carolina is no bargain. The Tar Heels are tremendous. But they were the third of the No. 1 seeds for a reason, also. They lost games to half the teams on the top two lines. That certainly seems more inviting than an evening with Zion and his biceps.
The most amazing element of Sunday's bracket reveal as it related to the Spartans is the Michigan team they beat for the Big Ten title — the team they beat last weekend for a share of the regular-season title and two weeks before that to set up all of this — will head to the West Region for a possible matchup with the No. 1 seed the committee respected least, the Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Michigan won by losing. (And losing. And losing again.)
For all the griping about mid-major teams not getting a fair shot for at-large bids, VCU made it in easily, and Belmont will play in the First Four. Those advancing the misguided notion the "little guy" gets a raw deal are missing the greatest flaw in the selection process. It has been the same since I first visited Indianapolis for the mock selection process roughly a decade ago and saw how all this is done. The problem is the fixation with the minutiae of geography. This might be the most outrageous application of that absurdity.
Michigan State's chances of reaching the Final Four decreased immeasurably because of the distance of 120 miles. If only the MSU campus had been in Muskegon. The Spartans might have gotten the draw they earned.
I get all of that. I really do. But I also get what the Committee Chair was saying too. When they are bracketing these teams their job isn’t really to assume who is going to win what and have to face each other. Duke and Michigan St each have to win 3 games to get to each other. There’s a pretty decent chance that is going to happen but there’s a pretty decent chance it won’t happen, too.
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Isn't that the exact point of the S curve? Now if a bracket implodes and you get lucky that way, that's different.
But in fairness, I do have MSU losing to Maryland in the Sweet 16 anyway, so all for naught.
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Isn't that the exact point of the S curve? Now if a bracket implodes and you get lucky that way, that's different.
But in fairness, I do have MSU losing to Maryland in the Sweet 16 anyway, so all for naught.
Come on man.
Turge is the ☓-factor. Many predicting Belmont to defeat Maryland, after playing a team one day prior!
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I get all of that. I really do. But I also get what the Committee Chair was saying too. When they are bracketing these teams their job isn’t really to assume who is going to win what and have to face each other. Duke and Michigan St each have to win 3 games to get to each other. There’s a pretty decent chance that is going to happen but there’s a pretty decent chance it won’t happen, too.
That's all well and good, if they were deciding whether to send MSU to DC or to Anaheim. Perhaps if it was Anaheim, you move them closer.
But there are four 2-seeds, ranked in this order [I think]:
- Tennessee
- MSU
- Kentucky
- Michigan
Those seeds could all go to DC, Louisville, Kansas City, or Anaheim.
- Tennessee gets first consideration, and if "close to home vs ease of opponent" is balanced, Louisville is MUCH closer to Knoxville than the others, and it avoids Duke, so it makes sense.
- MSU and Kentucky are next. All things being equal, MSU should get the easier opponent, as long as the travel considerations aren't an issue. East Lansing->DC is 590 miles. East Lansing->KC is 703 miles. Lexington->DC is 537 miles. Lexington->KC is 583 miles. Travel considerations shouldn't be an issue here. You give MSU the easier bracket and UK the harder bracket. This also makes sense because MSU is a midwestern school in a midwestern conference while Kentucky is much more eastern school in a southeastern conference.
- Michigan gets what's left. They got lucky that travel considerations "screwed" them and managed to put them in the easiest bracket.
Basically I think it's ridiculous, even if you assume that travel distance is a factor, that the 113 additional miles to KC were enough to put MSU into a MUCH stronger bracket than UK, AND put them in the potential path of two conference mates in MD/MN rather than one conference mate in OSU.
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Isn't that the exact point of the S curve? Now if a bracket implodes and you get lucky that way, that's different.
But in fairness, I do have MSU losing to Maryland in the Sweet 16 anyway, so all for naught.
I believe they stopped using the S-curve as a factor. At least that’s what some CBS guys said.
On the plus side, lamenting the bracket is part of the process.
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The NET rankings have some pretty clear issues that the NCAA will need to iron out. NC State for example is a major outlier. And I'm not terribly pleased with how the NET rankings viewed the Gophers. Rated #61 prior to the Big Ten Tournament. Both Indiana and Penn State were viewed much more favorably despite worse records. Efficiency is weighted far to heavy and SOS doesn't seem to matter much.....which is why NC State was so highly rated despite having the worst strength of schedule in division 1 basketball. If the season would have ended prior to the Big Ten Tournament.....and NET was the primary tool used for the selection committee.....the Gophers would have been left out. And who even knows what their NET ranking is now.
And I don't exactly love the draw. Louisville will be a good test.....but I'm with MSU fans......they should have gotten a #1 seed. It sucks that if the Gophers win their first round matchup.....they'll have to play MSU.
Their net ranking is still 61.
Because a team’s own net ranking should be pretty secondary.
But because when we put numbers next to teams, people lose their minds, we get this debate every year.
Minnesota is actually more interesting because A. Net gave the resume a slight boost, even if it was only a No. 41 RPI team. B. Minnesota’s non-conference schedule is an interesting contrast to the N.C. State one as it has a dearth of “good” teams, but raises the floor with better not-good teams.
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Yeah, I’m not even sure the S curve is still used. Maybe it is, I don’t know. I really do get where MSU fans are coming from in this particular instance but I think the committee is doing the best they can trying to balance location, seeding, etc.
And location still matters to people. I remember a few years Gonzaga as a 7 seed had to play WVU as a 10 seed in Pittsburgh and Gonzaga fans being REALLY unhappy about that (and for good reason).
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And location still matters to people. I remember a few years Gonzaga as a 7 seed had to play WVU as a 10 seed in Pittsburgh and Gonzaga fans being REALLY unhappy about that (and for good reason).
I thought they only tried to protect location for the top 4 seed lines... I.e. if you were 5-16, you got what you got.
But I think the point still stands. From East Lansing, DC vs KC is largely the same distance [given that Louisville was already taken]. 100 miles shouldn't be a factor. If you're assuming that MSU as 6th overall should have an "easier" bracket than UK as 7th overall, it makes no sense to "save" 100 miles to put them up against the #1 overall seed.
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Come on man.
Turge is the ☓-factor. Many predicting Belmont to defeat Maryland, after playing a team one day prior!
That is what I'm struggling with. Belmont or Maryland. I feel really good about whoever wins that beating LSU, and then I always pick MSU to win 2nd games of a weekend, that's historically where Izzo has done well. I'm not picking them to beat Duke, so I have to pick them to lose in the Sweet 16, which just happens to be Maryland.
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- Tennessee gets first consideration, and if "close to home vs ease of opponent" is balanced, Louisville is MUCH closer to Knoxville than the others, and it avoids Duke, so it makes sense.
- MSU and Kentucky are next. All things being equal, MSU should get the easier opponent, as long as the travel considerations aren't an issue. East Lansing->DC is 590 miles. East Lansing->KC is 703 miles. Lexington->DC is 537 miles. Lexington->KC is 583 miles. Travel considerations shouldn't be an issue here. You give MSU the easier bracket and UK the harder bracket. This also makes sense because MSU is a midwestern school in a midwestern conference while Kentucky is much more eastern school in a southeastern conference.
- Michigan gets what's left. They got lucky that travel considerations "screwed" them and managed to put them in the easiest bracket.
Basically I think it's ridiculous, even if you assume that travel distance is a factor, that the 113 additional miles to KC were enough to put MSU into a MUCH stronger bracket than UK, AND put them in the potential path of two conference mates in MD/MN rather than one conference mate in OSU.
That's part of it. It's not like it was between playing Duke in Cleveland, or someone else in Seattle. Either way you are getting on a plane and going basically the same distance. Totally different than Gonzaga having to play a de facto road game at West Virginia.
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I’ve come to a peace with the idea UW will lose round 1.
I don’t quite see it as clearly as the rest of the world seems to, beyond UW’s not-good offense against Oregon’s good defense.
But UW is due to disappoint, and I’d rather not spend the week defending UW’s honor, only to see conventional wisdom be right after a game seeped in randomness goes one way. If UW loses or wins, I imagine I’ll have a good feel why or why not.
I listened to something that suggested Irvine might upset KSU without its best player and then get Oregon, which feels like a nightmare scenario in terms of feelings.
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I don't think anyone other than possibly @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) will care, but here is the math behind all of that:
I care! and Thanks.
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I’ve come to a peace with the idea UW will lose round 1.
I don’t quite see it as clearly as the rest of the world seems to, beyond UW’s not-good offense against Oregon’s good defense.
But UW is due to disappoint, and I’d rather not spend the week defending UW’s honor, only to see conventional wisdom be right after a game seeped in randomness goes one way. If UW loses or wins, I imagine I’ll have a good feel why or why not.
I listened to something that suggested Irvine might upset KSU without its best player and then get Oregon, which feels like a nightmare scenario in terms of feelings.
Yeah, I'm holding out on the Dean Wade thing. I'm going to keep picking against Virginia until they prove me wrong, so if he's in, I've got them beating Virginia. If he's out, I'll pick Irvine to beat them. I doubt we know one way or the other in time.
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I thought they only tried to protect location for the top 4 seed lines... I.e. if you were 5-16, you got what you got.
But I think the point still stands. From East Lansing, DC vs KC is largely the same distance [given that Louisville was already taken]. 100 miles shouldn't be a factor. If you're assuming that MSU as 6th overall should have an "easier" bracket than UK as 7th overall, it makes no sense to "save" 100 miles to put them up against the #1 overall seed.
No, I get it. I’m talking more in general and you are talking about Michigan St’s plight specifically. And if I’m a MSU fan I’ll travel the extra 120 miles to watch them play Gonzaga as opposed to Duke.
But, again, I’m not sure the committee is sitting in a room assuming MSU and Duke are going to play each other. I think they try to seed them appropriately and send them to the most advantageous locations as possible. I don’t think they are thinking 3 rounds ahead.
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Yeah, I'm holding out on the Dean Wade thing. I'm going to keep picking against Virginia until they prove me wrong, so if he's in, I've got them beating Virginia. If he's out, I'll pick Irvine to beat them. I doubt we know one way or the other in time.
I have UVA winning it all. If my life depended on it that wouldn’t be my pick but I do think this is the year they get to the Final 4. And I am not a believer in K-State. I don’t know what my problem is with them but I have them getting bounced early every year. Sometimes when you see a team a lot in your conference you fall in love with them and sometimes you just keep thinking, “They aren’t that good.” I’m always the latter with K-State. I do have them in the Sweet 16 but I think UVA handles them.
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Yep. For example, there's only a 40.9% likelihood of BOTH UW and MD making the round of 32. For the top 5 seeds to go 5-0 in the R64 is only 30.6% likely.
While at the same time the likelihood that the bottom three seeds will go 0-3 is only 23.8%, or inverted, there is a 76.2% chance that one or more teams in that bottom three will win a game.
I care! and Thanks.
LoL. I knew @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) would want the math and I figured he'd add his $0.02. Good to know that @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) cared too.
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Important question: buy a ticket (just one) to round one for face value (cheap seats WAY up high), or pick one up at game time on the street? I'm inclined to think the latter is the better option, but with Oregon and UC-Irvine in the same series in San Jose, there might be a decent turnout.
Thoughts?
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Important question: buy a ticket (just one) to round one for face value (cheap seats WAY up high), or pick one up at game time on the street? I'm inclined to think the latter is the better option, but with Oregon and UC-Irvine in the same series in San Jose, there might be a decent turnout.
Thoughts?
In the era of online tickets, I wonder about the process with physical tickets anymore. It’s what, 60 bucks to get in?
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There are a good number of UW alum in the Bay Area, no?
https://chapters.uwalumni.com/bayarea/
Maybe check with this group too.
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No, I get it. I’m talking more in general and you are talking about Michigan St’s plight specifically. And if I’m a MSU fan I’ll travel the extra 120 miles to watch them play Gonzaga as opposed to Duke.
But, again, I’m not sure the committee is sitting in a room assuming MSU and Duke are going to play each other. I think they try to seed them appropriately and send them to the most advantageous locations as possible. I don’t think they are thinking 3 rounds ahead.
That's what I was thinking when I saw the explanation. Seems like a cop out. How many less people are going to make the trip because of 120 miles? I guess possibly folks that plan to make a road trip out of it?
And yeah....I think with the time that we're told the committee puts in.....they absolutely should be considering these things. It didn't take a number of fans on a message board to figure that out brain buster.
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What's the record for the most number of pages in a thread in the new board?
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That's what I was thinking when I saw the explanation. Seems like a cop out. How many less people are going to make the trip because of 120 miles? I guess possibly folks that plan to make a road trip out of it?
And yeah....I think with the time that we're told the committee puts in.....they absolutely should be considering these things. It didn't take a number of fans on a message board to figure that out brain buster.
Nah, I don’t want them to start taking into consideration if 1 and 2 run the table what that would mean. Because the dynamic changes if they don’t. Seed them and place them and be done with it.
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I'd rather they go strict S curve and adjust to avoid conference rematches where possible. Picking 4 regionals is fairly arbitrary. Just think of it as one 64 teams bracket where 1 plays 64, 2 plays 63 and so on.
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I'd rather they go strict S curve and adjust to avoid conference rematches where possible. Picking 4 regionals is fairly arbitrary. Just think of it as one 64 teams bracket where 1 plays 64, 2 plays 63 and so on.
I also think this should be considered. One of the fun things about the tournament is that you see different matchups from teams that you typical don't. That's what makes bowl games (and I like that there are a ton) so fun. I suppose it's not as bad in CBB since the non-conference schedule gives teams the opportunity to schedule multiple other power conference teams. Although outside of Washington....most of our non-conference was mainly bad power conference teams or mid-majors that are not really expected to do much.
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Important question: buy a ticket (just one) to round one for face value (cheap seats WAY up high), or pick one up at game time on the street? I'm inclined to think the latter is the better option, but with Oregon and UC-Irvine in the same series in San Jose, there might be a decent turnout.
Thoughts?
Is your Game before or after the Big Draw? I did a car show at Amalia Island, and had a day to kill in Jacksonville a coupe years back. My wife and I were just walking downtown, and saw people gathering at the Arena, and asked what was going on. NCAA tournament, sweet. wanna go? I asked my wife. If tickets are cheap enough she replied. We got lower bowl $80 dollar tickets for $10 a piece, because North Carolina game had already occurred. We got to watch Georgia State upset Baylor, then hung around to see Xavier beat Mississippi. The scalper gave us a sad song on how that the tickets we got he was getting $200 for from the NC fans, but now he was giving them away to us for $20.
2 p.m. (13) UC Irvine vs. (4) Kansas State TBS San Jose
After conc. I (12) Oregon vs. (5) Wisconsin TBS San Jose
7:27 p.m. (12) Liberty vs. (5) Mississippi State truTV San Jose
After conc. III (13) Saint Louis vs. (4) Virginia Tech truTV San Jose
I don't know, it seems to me the Big game of the day is going to be Oregon vs. Wisconsin. Not sure if you will be able to get the huge discount we got by having the team in demand play first.
With online ticketing, can you walk up and see what the scalpers will give you then just choose the better option?
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1st round sites are like attending a convention. People coming and going. Let's not pretend Duck or Irvine fans are going to descend upon San Jose in massive numbers. I don't care how giant anybody's alumni base might be in the Bay Area, this won't be a hard ticket on site Friday. How many fans of a 12 seed who somewhat recently went to a FF are jazzed up for this really?
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There are games in Columbus, but I won't go. Last time I went, the game were almost unwatchable given the huge amounts of dead time attributed to commercials.
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Our two NIT teams get started tonight and tomorrow. Indiana hosts St. Francis tonight and Nebraska hosts Butler tomorrow. I'd love to see the B1G win the NIT again!
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1st round sites are like attending a convention. People coming and going. Let's not pretend Duck or Irvine fans are going to descend upon San Jose in massive numbers. I don't care how giant anybody's alumni base might be in the Bay Area, this won't be a hard ticket on site Friday. How many fans of a 12 seed who somewhat recently went to a FF are jazzed up for this really?
I think this is a really important point. If said 12 seed hadn't been to the tournament in 10 years they would be a MUCH bigger draw.
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And back to the stupidity of that game. It clearly meant nothing to the selection committee as far as favorable draws go.
Sure, but my argument about it's importance was different - that the sport is biased to rank March at least equal and arguably well above the entire regular season. I never argued that a game that finishes 15 minutes before the bracket release will affect that bracket.
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It's a tough call. Oregon is on a hot streak, so this might be different than the usual 12-seed, and there are a lot of Ducks (and also a lot of Badgers) in the Bay Area. Plus, the 12-5 is always a hot topic, and the national media likes Oregon (as does the betting line, at least relative to a normal 12-5; the other 5-seeds are -4, -6, and -6.5, where as the Badgers are -1.5). But I think I'm going with playing the odds and heading down there without a ticket and seeing what happens. I don't mind missing the first five or ten minutes.
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Sure, but my argument about it's importance was different - that the sport is biased to rank March at least equal and arguably well above the entire regular season. I never argued that a game that finishes 15 minutes before the bracket release will affect that bracket.
Then what exactly is the meaning?
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Does anyone know where I can find a list of teams for the NCAAT stat "Wins over expected (seed)" for 2009-2018? I'd be happy to do some grunt work to compile it myself, but I need to actually find the data for each season to do that.
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Does anyone know where I can find a list of teams for the NCAAT stat "Wins over expected (seed)" for 2009-2018? I'd be happy to do some grunt work to compile it myself, but I need to actually find the data for each season to do that.
Using the assumption the higher seed wins every game, or based on the actual likelihood of each result?
And then beyond that, games where as a seed they weren't normally expected to win, but based on results were? Like Kansas State as an 8 seed losing to an 11 seed Loyola in an Elite 8 would actually work against them?
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Then what exactly is the meaning?
Autobids and banners at the very least.
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Autobids and banners at the very least.
MSU was already in, auto-bid or not, obviously.
And as I already said, MSU doesn't hang banners for BTT wins, just as they don't for winning Maui.
They are just fun weekends. But one is in November, before a December that is a lighter month for games, primarily played against inferior competition, while the other ends 4 days before the actual tournament, when health and rest are vital.
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Using the assumption the higher seed wins every game, or based on the actual likelihood of each result?
And then beyond that, games where as a seed they weren't normally expected to win, but based on results were? Like Kansas State as an 8 seed losing to an 11 seed Loyola in an Elite 8 would actually work against them?
Honestly, I could assemble either, but really I want to reproduce this ranking for a more recent time frame:
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/976871909106376704
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MSU was already in, auto-bid or not, obviously.
And as I already said, MSU doesn't hang banners for BTT wins, just as they don't for winning Maui.
They are just fun weekends. But one is in November, before a December that is a lighter month for games, primarily played against inferior competition, while the other ends 4 days before the actual tournament, when health and rest are vital.
I don't find that persuasive. Michigan does hang banners. Plus, even if your Maui thing were a perfect fit, the entire sport is set up to more respect "Maui in March" than "Maui in November." Because the sport is infinitely more amped now than it was then. This second one is handwaving, sure, but it's handwaving that the entire institution of NCAA MBB has deeply ingrained and will take to the grave.
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I don't find that persuasive. Michigan does hang banners. Plus, even if your Maui thing were a perfect fit, the entire sport is set up to more respect "Maui in March" than "Maui in November." Because the sport is infinitely more amped now than it was then. This second one is handwaving, sure, but it's handwaving that the entire institution of NCAA MBB has deeply ingrained and will take to the grave.
More amped up? I guess. But at least Maui has some impact on your selection resume, where as the BTT clearly doesn't. If you could tell me MSU could win, lose Ahrens, and be in Duke's bracket; or lose/sit out, have Ahrens, and be in Gonzaga's, I'll sign up for #2 every time. Nothing was gained from winning, and something very tangible was lost by even playing that game. When nothing is gained from winning, I consider that meaningless.
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Sure, but MSU isn't in Duke's bracket *because* they won. That's coincidental. The main point is about banners. MSU kept Michigan from hanging one.
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Does anyone know where I can find a list of teams for the NCAAT stat "Wins over expected (seed)" for 2009-2018? I'd be happy to do some grunt work to compile it myself, but I need to actually find the data for each season to do that.
Here's expected wins by seed : http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html
I just use Wikipedia for the rest, either by team or by coach. For any prominent program, it's really well documented .
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Conference Titles are wasted on the blue bloods.
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Conference Titles are wasted on the blue bloods.
MSU already won the conference title they care about. They were just playing in a tourney that was added 20 years ago for no reason other than to make money. I care very much about conference titles.
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So they only hang banners for regular season titles?
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So they only hang banners for regular season titles?
For MSU, yes, they've taken down their old tourney banners and don't hang new ones
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As a guy with a lot of familiarity with the banner industry, I find Sparty's position to be the exception and not the norm.
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For those interested 538 has a prediction sheet (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-march-madness-predictions/) that gives each team's percentage chances per round.
For Ohio State:
- 33% to beat Iowa State
- 12% to make the Sweet Sixteen
- 4% to make the Elite Eight
- 1% to make the final four
- <1% to make the final
- <1% to win the NC.
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Massey composite rankings (61 rankings) going into the NCAA Tourney, with last week in parenthesis...
- Virginia (1)
- Duke (2)
- North Carolina (4)
- Gonzaga (3)
- MICHIGAN STATE (5)
- Tennessee (6)
- Kentucky (7)
- MICHIGAN (8)
- Texas Tech (9)
- Houston (10)
- Florida State (15)
- PURDUE (11)
- Auburn (18)
- Kansas (13)
- Virginia Tech (14)
- LSU (12)
- Buffalo (19)
- WISCONSIN (16)
- Kansas State (20)
- Iowa State (-)
- Nevada (17)
- Mississippi State (22)
- Villanova (24)
- Wofford (25)
- Cincinnati (-)
- 28. Maryland (21)
- 37. Iowa (36)
- 43. Minnesota (43)
- 46. Ohio State (46)
- 51. Nebraska (55)
- 52. Indiana (44)
- 59. Penn State (56)
- 90. Rutgers (88)
- 99. Northwestern (92)
- 104. Illinois (97)
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Indiana advanced in the NIT and will host Arkansas on Saturday.
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Reports out there that Nebraska is eyeing Mayor Hoiberg as coach. This assumes that Rasputin, er, Miles is relieved following the NIT.
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Reports out there that Nebraska is eyeing Mayor Hoiberg as coach. This assumes that Rasputin, er, Miles is relieved following the NIT.
As a Nebraska guy, do you think moving on is the right move?
Miles hasn't been great but my impression is that he has done better, on average, than Nebraska's historic average. That may not be good enough but as an outsider I look at it and think that it could (and has been) worse.
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The Glen Mason dilemma
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I saw the Hoiberg stuff in the Sunday paper here. Seems odd, going from the Chicago Bulls to Nebraska.
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Reports out there that Nebraska is eyeing Mayor Hoiberg as coach. This assumes that Rasputin, er, Miles is relieved following the NIT.
I’d actually be excited about that if I were a Nebraska fan. He’s a Midwest guy who got Iowa St turned back around and has a NBA pedigree. I’d consider that a really good hire for Nebraska.
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He has Nebraska roots so it makes sense. But if he does get hired, it's probably safe to assume he'll have one eye on a bigger job (i.e. powerhouse program or back in the NBA).
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I’d actually be excited about that if I were a Nebraska fan. He’s a Midwest guy who got Iowa St turned back around and has a NBA pedigree. I’d consider that a really good hire for Nebraska.
His admission standards are no bueno though. Hell, he took two kids Izzo booted off the team, and the whole roster seemed like a bunch of dudes on their second and third chances.
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The Glen Mason dilemma
Yeah, except Minnesota hadn't poured a ton of resources into the program to give Mason arguably the best facilities in the conference to work with. And Mason was at least decentish, just couldn't get over the hump.
Miles seems like he's at least had Nebraska decent, but not really.
In seven years he's made one NCAA tournament. I'd say making the tournament now is comparable to making a bowl when Mason was here, generally it's like 5-7 teams, 4 last year, 8 this year. And he's only even made 2 NITs. Four times, it's been no postseason. He's finished in the bottom 4 of the Big Ten in 5 of his 7 seasons. Mason at least had Minnesota in a bowl every year, ranked a couple times.
Miles seems like a really cool dude, and we all like him. He hasn't failed spectacularly, but Nebraska didn't put all that money in to be a bottom 4 team every year in the conference. Plus, while Mason's successors did worse than he did, is there really any risk in firing Miles? Any drop is negligible, no difference in being 12th and not in the postseason vs. 14th and not in the postseason, so there's no risk. This is a senior-laden team, so next year is going to be rough no matter what. If you are going to fire him after another bad year next year, might as well fire him now, so at least a bad 2019-20 is the first year if a potential new era, rather than the final year of the last one.
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His admission standards are no bueno though. Hell, he took two kids Izzo booted off the team, and the whole roster seemed like a bunch of dudes on their second and third chances.
Hmm. Idk. I can’t say I followed his time at Iowa St closely enough to know about that. I do know that he won a lot of games and had teams that were fun to watch while he was at ISU. Sometimes to get a team turned around like that you need to take a risk or two. Not every situation turns into Art Briles at Baylor.
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He took in 19 transfers in his five years, including a bunch of JUCO kids, at least 3 kids who had been kicked out of other Big Ten schools for legal issues.
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He took in 19 transfers in his five years, including a bunch of JUCO kids, at least 3 kids who had been kicked out of other Big Ten schools for legal issues.
Well, then the JUCO strategy wouldn’t work in the Big Ten. Transfers still could I guess.
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I guess my thing is if you are Nebraska how much of a risk are you really taking? They’ve made one NCAA Tournament in the last 20 seasons. The JUCO thing is definitely worth asking in the interview because he couldn’t do that in Lincoln but if he can give an answer you can live with I like Hoiberg as a candidate.
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Both of our NIT teams have made it to the second round:
- Indiana will host Arkansas on Saturday at noon
- Nebraska will be in Ft. Worth to play TCU on Sunday at 9:30pm
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B1G NCAA Tournament games today:
- #10 Minnesota plays #7 Louisville at 12:15 in Des Moines on CBS
- #2 Michigan State plays #15 Bradley at 2:45 in Des Moines on CBS
- #6 Maryland plays #11 Belmont at 3:10 in Jacksonville on TRUTV (?)
- #2 Michigan plays #15 Montana at 9:20 in Des Moines on TNT
- #3 Purdue plays #14 Old Dominion at 9:50 in Hartford on TBS
Tomorrow:
- #10 Iowa plays #7 Cincinnati at 12:15 in Columbus on CBS
- #5 Wisconsin plays #12 Oregon at 4:30 in San Jose on TBS
- #11 Ohio State plays #6 Iowa State at 9:50 in Tulsa on TBS
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First impression from the Minnie / Louisville game: The refs are definitely letting a lot of contact go without the whistle so far.
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Need Louisville to win. Never fun to lose the first game of the entire tournament.
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I went with Minnesota for this one. Minnesota has been playing better lately while Louisville has been on a downward trend.
This is actually the first time I've filled out a bracket in 5 years. I actually kinda enjoy the tournament better when I don't have a particular rooting interest (outside of my own team).
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It bears repeating each year , why does the NCAA install these sanitized floors. Ruins the identity of the subregions. Spare me the brand marketing lecture . We know the NCAA is a soulless faceless entity. At least they went away from the completely empty black and blue scheme.
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It bears repeating each year , why does the NCAA install these sanitized floors. Ruins the identity of the subregions. Spare me the brand marketing lecture . We know the NCAA is a soulless faceless entity. At least they went away from the completely empty black and blue scheme.
Absolutely
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I don't think I've seen Minnesota shoot this well all year
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Des Moines hoops have tiny nets. NCAA didn't mess with that.
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Minnesota had given up against Michigan so this is really surprising.
Yale missed a lot of open shots and has played awful defense. LSU is much more motivated than I expected, though.
New Mexico State playing well early, though....
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Des Moines hoops have tiny nets. NCAA didn't mess with that.
Nevermind. They are all tiny.
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Solid tournament win Minnesota!
Refs really let that one drag out.
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Man, the Gophers were impressive from beyond the arc. I don't expect them to remain this hot, especially with Sparty likely next on the docket.
Still, good showing for the Big Ten so far.
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OK, so far the games in this tournament have been fantastic.
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Did you guys see that Syracuse' guard who dropped 28 against Duke in the ACC tournament is suspended?
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Agreed. I took off work for both afternoons so that I could watch. This is an unusual year where the 3-5 seeds aren't that great and the 12-14 seeds are pretty good because there weren't as many upsets resulting in bad auto-bids in conference tournaments (South Dakota State and Hofstra losing being the primary exceptions).
I fully expect Vermont and New Mexico State to hold their own. Yale would've won if they weren't so bad from 3 today, too.
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Yup. I actually picked Baylor last night already, but I still double checked my bracket this morning to make sure I hadn't pulled one of my patented "I think I did this, but then I might have flipped it at the last second just to get an upset or two in there".
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Great start for the B1G!
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Great start for the B1G!
That's about to end.
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Lot of Bradley fans in Des Moines wearing maize and blue
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Did you guys see that Syracuse' guard who dropped 28 against Duke in the ACC tournament is suspended?
Suspended? By Boeheim? Who'd the kid kill?
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Very nice win for Minnesota. And Lil' Ricky says "that one's for daddy".
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Lot of Bradley fans in Des Moines wearing maize and blue
That's a shame, but not shocking.
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OK, if FSU drops this first game to Vermont, my West bracket is going to take a pretty significant beating on the first day.
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Bradley shooting 80% from three, two from the logo. This is how it happens.
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OK, if FSU drops this first game to Vermont, my West bracket is going to take a pretty significant beating on the first day.
Yeah, I had a couple of my brackets where FSU went somewhat far.
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This kid on Bradley is defending Winston better than anyone in the Big Ten did this year.
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This kid on Bradley is defending Winston better than anyone in the Big Ten did this year.
This is first half Winston. Doesnt count till you do it in the 2nd.
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This auburn game is wild
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ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED!!!!!! :)
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Maybe I was wrong, NCAA might as well be Maui, if we are going to get 6 straight minutes of Connor freaking George
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OK, if FSU drops this first game to Vermont, my West bracket is going to take a pretty significant beating on the first day.
On a related note, if MSU drops this game to Bradley...….
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Kids from New Mexico St will have nightmares about the end of that game with Auburn for a while.
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On a related note, if MSU drops this game to Bradley...….
Then late career Tom Izzo is mid career Bo Ryan. Big Ten regular and or postseason title 3 of 4 years, with 4 first weekend exits.
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Maryland needs to have more patience. On one sequence they took three 3 pointers. Settle down and get it in the paint.
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Great start for the B1G!
Not exactly what I expected. #10 seed Minnesota never trailed after the mid-way point of the first half and pretty easily dispatched #10 Louisville and now at halftime #2 MSU is trailing and approaching halftime the #6 Terps are down by six.
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MSU bigs need to remove heads from posteriors. 1-10 from the floor from the front line, -7 in rebounding
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not a good start to the 2nd half for the Spartans
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C'mon, Maryland... I've got you going to face Duke in a couple brackets. Need you to get out of R64!
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C'mon, Maryland... I've got you going to face Duke in a couple brackets. Need you to get out of R64!
I hated LSU, went with Maryland to the Elite 8, but I was more concerned with this one. Think either one beats a coachless LSU. Went Maryland over MSU due to being a weekend opener, and a de facto home game.
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I guess Maryland was listening... 14-0 run to start the 2nd half...
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I hated LSU, went with Maryland to the Elite 8, but I was more concerned with this one. Think either one beats a coachless LSU. Went Maryland over MSU due to being a weekend opener, and a de facto home game.
You might have picked right with a weekend opener... Just the wrong weekend.
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Aaron Henry might single handidly lose this one. Assist from 1-9 Goins
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Bradley with the curious decision to go small once their best big picked up 4 fouls. Allowed us to roll with Tillman over Ward.
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Well, any game you can walk away from with a victory.....
Good job MSU. 2-0 Big Ten. All eyes now move to Maryland.
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Nice job Gophers, Spartans and Terps, B1G is now 3-0!
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Well, they survived. Better lucky than good.
Really want Turgeon gone.
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What an exciting finish for the Terps.
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What an exciting finish for the Terps.
I wasn't watching but had it on ESPN's game cast. Three questions:
- When UMD took that last foul shot did they intentionally miss to roll the clock?
- When Belmont took that three at the end that would have won it, how far out was it, how good of a shot, how close?
- On the ESPN site it appeared that somehow no time at all elapsed from UMD's foul shot until UMD rebounded the missed three. What actually happened?
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Ja Morant ain't no pretender
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Marquette gettin' pummeled by the 12 seed Murray St right now.
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Marquette gettin' pummeled by the 12 seed Murray St right now.
Has to be the most predicted upset since Middle Tennessee over Minnesota. Gets to a level you question it, then the result delivers what you expected.
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I wasn't watching but had it on ESPN's game cast. Three questions:
- When UMD took that last foul shot did they intentionally miss to roll the clock?
- When Belmont took that three at the end that would have won it, how far out was it, how good of a shot, how close?
- On the ESPN site it appeared that somehow no time at all elapsed from UMD's foul shot until UMD rebounded the missed three. What actually happened?
No, he didn’t miss it on purpose but after the game Turgeon said he probably should have told him to miss it on purpose. Belmont’s shot was a heave. They rebounded it, one pass up the court, and the kid just launched from about 60 feet or so. Didn’t come close.
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Well, they survived. Better lucky than good.
Really want Turgeon gone.
My Maryland buddy texted me that LSU-Maryland will be the first NCAA game between two teams without a head coach. Yikes.
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Suspended? By Boeheim? Who'd the kid kill?
And how many?
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No, he didn’t miss it on purpose but after the game Turgeon said he probably should have told him to miss it on purpose. Belmont’s shot was a heave. They rebounded it, one pass up the court, and the kid just launched from about 60 feet or so. Didn’t come close.
Thank you!
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I wasn't watching but had it on ESPN's game cast. Three questions:
- When UMD took that last foul shot did they intentionally miss to roll the clock?
- When Belmont took that three at the end that would have won it, how far out was it, how good of a shot, how close?
- On the ESPN site it appeared that somehow no time at all elapsed from UMD's foul shot until UMD rebounded the missed three. What actually happened?
Ha, Medina, I "watch" a lot of Gamecast and I often have the same kinds of questions. You can't quite get the full picture sometimes...
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5-0 start for the conference.
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Great night for Michigan. They dominated Montana unlike last year (and many guarantee home games in non-con play that should've been more decisive). There were still some bad moments to be sure, but it was great to see Matthews find his offense.
Florida beat Nevada, but I really wasn't impressed with either team, and I'm glad the Gators won. Nevada is more talented and experienced but seemingly undisciplined and not used to facing power conference teams (they beat USC and Arizona State this year, but that's not saying much). Meanwhile, Florida is another defensive-minded team, but they still nearly choked in the second half after getting a big lead, and LSU is the only good team that they've beaten.
Point being, Michigan matches up well with the Gators. If Michigan plays well it shouldn't be close. If they don't, it'll be similar to games like Minnesota (home), but we'll see.
I'll add that I'll be curious to see how Buffalo and Texas Tech do tomorrow. Gonzaga clearly has an easy path on the other side with Murray State's upset and Florida State's struggles with Vermont, while Baylor beat Syracuse.
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Standard Performance by seed, what to expect from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament:
- We have two #2 seeds (MSU, M). Based on past performance of #2 seeds, they each have a 92.12% chance to win the opening 2/15 game and a 62.5% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Cumulatively, these two should get 1.88 R32 berths and 1.25 S16 berths.
- We have one #3 seed (PU). Based on past performance of #3 seeds, they have an 84.56% chance to win the opening 3/14 game and a 51.47% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
- We have one #5 seed (UW). Based on past performance of #5 seeds, they have a 65.44% chance to win the opening 5/12 game and a 33.82% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
- We have one #6 seed (UMD). Based on past performance of #6 seeds, they have a 62.5% chance to win the opening 6/11 game and a 30.88% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
- We have two #10 seeds (MN, IA). Based on past performance of #10 seeds, they each have a 38.24% chance to pull the upset in the 7/10 game and a 16.91% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Cumulatively, these two should get 0.76 R32 berths and 0.34 S16 berths.
- We have one #11 seed (tOSU). Based on past performance of #11 seeds, they have a 37.5% chance to pull the upset in the 6/11 game and a 16.18% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
As we watch the first weekend, here is what our eight teams cumulatively should produce:
- 5.14 teams should make it to the round of 32. Thus, if we have five alive as of Friday night that is about average. Six is better than average, four is worse than average. Anything more than six is REALLY good and anything less than four is REALLY bad.
- 2.91 teams should make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Thus, if we have three teams in the Sweet Sixteen that is slightly better than average. If we have two, that is below average. One or less would be REALLY bad. Four or more would be REALLY good.
I don't think anyone other than possibly @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) will care, but here is the math behind all of that:
Seed | R64 | R32 |
1 | 99.26% | 85.29% |
2 | 94.12% | 62.50% |
3 | 84.56% | 51.47% |
4 | 79.41% | 47.06% |
5 | 65.44% | 33.82% |
6 | 62.50% | 30.88% |
7 | 61.76% | 19.85% |
8 | 50.00% | 9.56% |
9 | 50.00% | 5.15% |
10 | 38.24% | 16.91% |
11 | 37.50% | 16.18% |
12 | 34.56% | 14.71% |
13 | 20.59% | 4.41% |
14 | 15.44% | 1.47% |
15 | 5.88% | 0.74% |
16 | 0.74% | 0.00% |
Seed | Team1 | Team2 | Teams | R32 % | S16 % | R32 Teams | S16 Teams |
2 | MSU | M | 2 | 94.12% | 62.50% | 1.882353 | 1.25 |
3 | PU | n/a | 1 | 84.56% | 51.47% | 0.845588 | 0.514706 |
5 | UW | n/a | 1 | 65.44% | 33.82% | 0.654412 | 0.338235 |
6 | UMD | n/a | 1 | 62.50% | 30.88% | 0.625 | 0.308824 |
10 | MN | IA | 2 | 38.24% | 16.91% | 0.764706 | 0.338235 |
11 | tOSU | n/a | 1 | 37.50% | 16.18% | 0.375 | 0.161765 |
Total | - | - | - | - | - | 5.147059 | 2.911765 |
Taking this into account, I'm thrilled with our 5-0 start!
At this point, any additional wins are gravy.
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Friday's games:
- #10 Iowa plays #7 Cincinnati at 12:15 in Columbus on CBS
- #5 Wisconsin plays #12 Oregon at 4:30 in San Jose on TBS
- #11 Ohio State plays #6 Iowa State at 9:50 in Tulsa on TBS
In theory:
- #10 seed Iowa has a 38.24% chance to win today, and
- #5 Wisconsin has a 65.44% chance to win today, and
- #11 Ohio State has a 37.5% chance to win today
We should get at least one more team into R32 and we have a not completely unrealistic chance to get another. From a conference-wide perspective I'd be happy with six, thrilled with seven, and ecstatic with all eight.
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Louisville "fan" mad.
(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/1a685117a4def783efb0b954962307065266bffd/c=350-0-5832-4122/local/-/media/2019/03/21/USATODAY/USATODAY/636887710664160564-01AP-NCAA-Minnesota-Louisville-Basketball.JPG?width=680&height=510&fit=crop)
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Dumbass still can't beat a gopher.
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F2.bp.blogspot.com%2F-nNrfTPT3tnM%2FVLwdPjPCQiI%2FAAAAAAAAH6w%2FIGrCv9LRvAk%2Fs1600%2FCaddyshack-Murray-gopher_l.jpg&hash=8b4ce390b6073ecfe7ed3bbb6eb1225e)
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How many Iowa fans made the trip? 3?
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How many Iowa fans made the trip? 3?
Based on how the game started, did Iowa leave a few players in Iowa City? :smiley_confused1:
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Based on how the game started, did Iowa leave a few players in Iowa City? :smiley_confused1:
Based on the way Iowa's season ended I pretty much expected that. They have been in a tailspin for a month.
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Watching the Iowa Cin game. I haven't seen this before but 22 from Cincinnati is getting offensive rebounds, by turning his back to the rim and out pushing the big men from Iowa. (They are back to back) Iowa trying to box out, he is "boxing in"? and I've watch him at least 3 times now go over the back but they don't call it because it's his back going over the back. One play he was literally riding on the back of the Iowa defender and no call.
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man great game here in Columbus. Ya'll need to stop working and start watching.
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I'm currently multitasking. Great game for sure. Very physical.
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OK. I picked the B1G to go 7-1 in the opening round. Wisconsin don't let me down.
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man great game here in Columbus. Ya'll need to stop working and start watching.
Done.
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man great game here in Columbus. Ya'll need to stop working and start watching.
I took a late lunch so I could watch the end of the Iowa game and the Hawkeyes have impressed me. Of all the B1G teams I thought that Iowa was the least likely to win but now they have and our league is 6-0.
The last two games are going to be tough. Wisconsin got SCREWED by the NCAA's inability to figure out that there should only be one western (MST/PST) site per year.
Ohio State barely got in and consequently they have a tough match-up against the B12 tournament Champions.
If we could somehow go 8-0 in the first round that would be AWESOME!
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If we could somehow go 8-0 in the first round that would be AWESOME!
I picked B1G to 7-1 (OSU the only loss in my bracket) Thank You Iowa and Minnesota, both getting the upsets. Wisconsin hopefully can hold chalk, and I wouldn't object to OSU "busting" my bracket with a win.
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I'm not confident in UW today. The guard play* has been severely lacking lately and Oregon could exploit that.
* I'm thinking we will see a healthy dose of King and Pritzl off the bench today.
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Can Wisconsin put OSU in the position of 2017 Outback Bowl UM?
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Can Wisconsin put OSU in the position of 2017 Outback Bowl UM?
Lets hope so, and then lets hope for a different result in OSU's equivalent of M's 2017 Outback Bowl.
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I had no faith in Iowa but they controlled the second half. Props to them
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I realize that this is temporary but I just thought it was cool. As of right now there are 18 teams in the Round of 32:
- 6 are from the B1G
- 4 are from the SEC
- 3 are from the B12
- 1 is from the WCC
- 1 is from the OVC
- 1 is from the Southern
- 1 is from the BigEast
- 1 is from the ACC
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Virginia...this couldn't happen again, could it?
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Virginia...this couldn't happen again, could it?
Eh, it is early. Lots of #1 seeds have fallen behind early and come back to win (often by a lot).
I'm not saying no, I'm just saying that it is too soon to start counting that chicken.
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K State gets dumped
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K State gets dumped
It is interesting. UVA has come back strong in the second half so far but now K-State has become the biggest upset victim and Tennessee is in a dogfight. The people who bought tickets in Columbus are certainly getting their money's worth. Cincy/Iowa was a great game and now Colgate/Tennessee is as well.
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The Badgers are going to need the seniors to win this game. Iverson and Happ - it's on them, and maybe Trice late. The rest of the guards are no-show right now on offense. Defense is another story. There, they are doing really well.
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The Badgers just plain suck right now. Open 3's and they just can't hit. That, and they are not being allowed to play defense. This game is out of reach now.
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Curse of the 5/12 nipping at Wisconsin's heels.
Maybe it's cause I'm rooting for the Badgers, but the refs are ticky tacking Wisconsin on fouls, but seem to be letting the Ducks play.
EDIT: 5/21 on the 3 doesn't help either.
EDIT 2: Wisconsin has missed 11/12 shots.
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Not the badgers night
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Ha. "They are building a small house in Wisconsin...With all the bricks they are laying."
Wisconsin ended at a 5 of 29 for the 3 pointers.
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This is just one of those times.
If you had told me before the games started that the B1G would be 6-1 at this point I'd have been thrilled.
I still should be, but for some reason I'm just not.
Oh well, Wisconsin saved Ohio State the risk of being the only B1G team to lose. Now hopefully the Buckeyes can win to move the conference to 7-1 which would still be an amazing first round!
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Just embarrassing. This team and coaching staff should be ashamed of itself.
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Not the badgers night
Daytime, 1800 miles away.
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Ha. "They are building a small house in Wisconsin...With all the bricks they are laying."
Wisconsin ended at a 5 of 29 for the 3 pointers.
Read the post about the guards I made, upthread.
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It's rough out here for a five seed
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Add Liberty to the list of schools with more NCAA tourney wins than Nebraska.
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Iona hitting everything. Currently up 8 on UNC.
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Why have I never heard of this Tacko Fall fella?
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I mentioned earlier how Kansas St was one of those “in your team’s conference” teams that I habitually think isn’t very good regardless of seed and record. Iowa St is the exact opposite. I always think they have a chance to make noise. Always enjoyed watching them.
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Why have I never heard of this Tacko Fall fella?
Idk. He’s actually gotten quite a bit of coverage in the world of college basketball. Obviously a pretty unique dude.
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Even as a cliff's notes fan of hoops I thought I would've seen him.
Agree on Iowa St. That goes way back to Johnny Orr days. Julius mikalik teams among others. They did get bounced as a 2 I believe though once.
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UNC becomes the second #1 seed to trail at halftime today. Duke was only up 4 themselves at the half. Let’s see if UNC can make adjustments like the other two did.
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Why have I never heard of this Tacko Fall fella?
I didn't know about him until I read this (link):
Tacko Fall Is 7-Foot-6. And He’s Breaking Basketball. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tacko-fall-is-7-foot-6-and-hes-breaking-basketball/)
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Bucks uglied it up in the first half. Let's see if they can do it again.
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Why have I never heard of this Tacko Fall fella?
Really? He's literally the only college basketball player my son knows, and has for the past three seasons. Hell, when UCF got good in football last year he asked why Tackos team was playing football.
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That explains it. I have girls and I know about all kinds of girls favorites and artists none of which are 7 foot 6 black men that play AAC hoops.
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I will gladly take that hit to my bracket.
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Bucks through!
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The B1G would have been perfect if not for Wisconsin.
I guess that makes 2019 UW BB = 2017 M FB
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H3LL YAH! BUCKEYES!
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The B1G would have been perfect if not for Wisconsin.
I guess that makes 2019 UW BB = 2017 M FB
Salt here is the Wound.
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The B1G would have been perfect if not for Wisconsin.
I guess that makes 2019 UW BB = 2017 M FB
Well, thanks, but nah.
All of the participating Big Ten football teams won their last game of the season that year, except for one.
I don't think any of the Big Ten basketball teams are gonna win their last game of the season this year.
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Through 35 first rounds since they expanded to 64 teams (1985-2019):
- #1 seeds are 139-1 against #16 seeds, 4-0 this year
- #2 seeds are 132-8 against #15 seeds, 4-0 this year
- #3 seeds are 119-21 against #14 seeds, 4-0 this year
- #4 seeds are 111-29 against #13 seeds, 3-1 this year
- #5 seeds are 90-50 against #12 seeds, 1-3 this year
- #6 seeds are 88-52 against #11 seeds, 3-1 this year
- #7 seeds are 85-55 against #10 seeds, 1-3 this year
- #8 seeds are 68-72 against #9 seeds, 0-4 this year
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I find it interesting that while the committee appears to be unable to correctly pick the #8's over the #9's based on the fact that the #8's are sub .500 against the #9's, the #8's have a MUCH better track record after the first round:
In the previous 34 tournaments the 68 #8's that won the 8/9 game went 13-55 against #1. The 68 #9's that won previous 8/9 games were only 6-61 against #1 (and 1-0 against #16). A similar pattern emerges for every round beyond that:
Sweet 16 games:
E8 games:
F4 games:
NC games:
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This game would be a lot closer if Maryland could hit the broad side of a barn...
It's not even like LSU's defense is stifling them. They just can't hit anything.
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Through 35 first rounds since they expanded to 64 teams (1985-2019):
- #1 seeds are 139-1 against #16 seeds, 4-0 this year
- #2 seeds are 132-8 against #15 seeds, 4-0 this year
- #3 seeds are 119-21 against #14 seeds, 4-0 this year
- #4 seeds are 111-29 against #13 seeds, 3-1 this year
- #5 seeds are 90-50 against #12 seeds, 1-3 this year
- #6 seeds are 88-52 against #11 seeds, 3-1 this year
- #7 seeds are 85-55 against #10 seeds, 1-3 this year
- #8 seeds are 68-72 against #9 seeds, 0-4 this year
Against the spread the dogs were 4-0,the 5 vs 12 is legendary in wagering circles and continues to confound the House.And they're very aware of it,of course I'm retired from such banal pursuits
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This game would be a lot closer if Maryland could hit the broad side of a barn...
It's not even like LSU's defense is stifling them. They just can't hit anything.
No one misses more layups and easy put backs.
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https://twitter.com/DCBarno/status/1109496120584126465?s=09
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Terps making a run at a lead who-hoo!!!
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CRAP
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I feel bad for Maryland fans. Dude clearly took 3 steps and honestly it was borderline 4. Pretty terrible missed traveling call when it mattered most
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I listened to the last 12 minutes. Sounded exciting.
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I feel bad for Maryland fans. Dude clearly took 3 steps and honestly it was borderline 4. Pretty terrible missed traveling call when it mattered most
I didn't expect them to get past the first game.
No biggie.
I was more pissed about the first half no call beatings underneath the refs swallowed their whistles for.
But again, Belmont....better lucky than good.
All those missed layups and put backs, and if they actually rebounded, it would be a blowout.
This coach just doesn't work on the little things.
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I feel bad for Maryland fans. Dude clearly took 3 steps and honestly it was borderline 4. Pretty terrible missed traveling call when it mattered most
Kind of appeared that way to me also.Damn seemed the Terps were throwing up lawn chairs from the line also.D should have got set or fouled him there,they seemed kind of shocked the whistle wasn't blown
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No one misses more layups and easy put backs.
Play at the rim hurt them no doubt,needed to put them away at the end.A decent 1st half and this is a different conversation
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No one misses more layups and easy put backs.
Ummm...
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Well, thanks, but nah.
All of the participating Big Ten football teams won their last game of the season that year, except for one.
I don't think any of the Big Ten basketball teams are gonna win their last game of the season this year.
Don't sleep on the Hoosier daddies.
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Meh. Different animal there. Winning the NIT is like being the tallest kid in 1st grade.
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So it's exactly like a lot of those bowl games?
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Meh. Different animal there. Winning the NIT is like being the tallest kid in 1st grade.
I resemble that remark 😂
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Bad strategy by Wofford with 33 seconds left down 2. You either need to pressure and trap, or foul. Instead they burn 16 seconds, foul, and now down 4 with 17 left.
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I liked that Maryland Team. LSU did what was needed to win (including traveling.)
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Didn’t have a chance to watch all hit a few bits of the game. Sounds like many open shots were missed. Looked like Oregon hit a bunch of tough ones.
I figured UW was due for a disappointment, and the game played out mostly the way I feared. Oh well. Decent bounce back season. Little worried about next year, but that’s most offseasons.
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So it's exactly like a lot of those bowl games?
Some, sure. I wouldn't call an NYD6 or SEC bowl game the equal to an NIT birth though. All in all, the B1G gets some pretty good matchups in the postseason. Better than most/all conferences.
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I resemble that remark 😂
WE know, but you are still our tallest first grader. We love you.
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The first of many in the Big Ten: Michigan to the S16.
That gives us our first back-to-back 30-win seasons in school history.
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Sorry Gophers, I'm rooting for MSU. I think that MSU has a higher ceiling so an MSU win is better for the conference overall.
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Michigan played well in the second half today, at least. The offense wasn't great but good enough throughout, and fortunately the defense came through when the offense had its inevitable second half drought.
I'll be really interested to see the Buffalo v Texas Tech game tomorrow of course. UB looked much better in their first game against Arizona State than TTU did against Northern Kentucky yesterday.
Not to be redundant, but Michigan should have the fan advantage in Anaheim similar to LA last year against Buffalo or Texas Tech and Gonzaga (or hypothetically Florida State, but they looked very week defensively against Murray State today).
Purdue looked really good tonight, too, as did Sparty. Not expecting Iowa or Ohio State to pull off upsets tomorrow, but we'll see....
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Well, looking at the interwebs, it would appear that my conspiracy theory of ref f**kery still holds some water.
So many articles on how the refs blew that last call.
Oh well.
Best of luck to those who remain.
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It is obviously unlikely as they are playing a #2 and a #3, but I think we have something like a 33% chance of getting at least one more team into the second weekend of the tournament.
We can't be disappointed as it is. As a conference the B1G went 7-1 in the first round and, so far, 3-2 in the second. Even the 10-5 worst-case-scenario for the first two rounds is very good. For that matter, the 10-8 worst-case-scenario overall isn't bad at all.
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Looking like Iowa isn't going to get it done. Purdue v Tennessee on Thursday.
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Hell of a comeback by Iowa. They did get a huge call down the stretch that was a 5 point swing.
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I guess I spoke too soon. But Iowa drops in OT
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not lucky enough this afternoon
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Spirited effort by the Hawks. Absolutely nothing to be ashamed of. There was no quit in these guys.
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Easy to be the best player in the country if you can push off like that, then draw fouls when the defender is standing there
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WOW! That Duke v. Tacko/Dawkins game was *fun* to watch! I've rarely been so entertained by a basketball game. Awesome.
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Easy to be the best player in the country if you can push off like that, then draw fouls when the defender is standing there
I had no problem with either and I was really wanting Duke to lose.
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Now this is my kind of tournament!
East - 1, 2, 3, 4
West - 1, 2, 3, 4
South - 1, 2, 3, (?); [? = 12 or 13]
Midwest - 1, 2, (?), 5; [? = 3 or 10]
So of the sixteen Top 4 seeds, we ar guaranteed 13, are favored to get 14, and one of the "misses" is a 5-seed. I wonder how that compares to the chalkiest S16s in history. I also wonder the extent to which this is coincidental or a product of a new and better system for building a tournament. That second one is not something we can realistically come to a conclusion on this year.
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Well a Thirsty Thirty-two appearance isn't the worst way to cap a sub-par season.
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Well a Thirsty Thirty-two appearance isn't the worst way to cap a sub-par season.
Not a bad tournament performance.
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Texas Tech looked really good today after not being that impressive against Northern Kentucky. If they play their best like they did today, they'll be arguably the toughest game Michigan has faced this year.
That said, they were playing de facto home games in Tulsa, whereas Michigan should have a substantial fan advantage in Anaheim, much like LA last year. They also haven't played (much less beaten) many great teams this year. They gave Duke a decent game and otherwise their toughest non-con games were Nebraska, Memphis, and USC. The Big12's tournament struggles make me somewhat skeptical, as well. Buffalo didn't play as well as I had seen them play before, either, though some credit goes to Texas Tech for that, of course.
It will likely be a defensive struggle, though both teams are playing well on offense of late, since they're the top 2 rated defenses in the country. As always, I just hope the outcome isn't controversial, but unlike most years, unfortunately the officiating in the tournament doesn't seem to be much better than the BigTen.
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Buffalo is very reliant on transition offense. Both Michigan and TT would have had that effect on them. And it's not really informative of the next game. These are the #1 and #2 defenses paired with "fair" offenses (M, #19; TT, #33). Things are about to slow way down. I think the term is a "rock fight." (Is that an immovable object/irresistable force reference or is it about playing rock/paper/scissors and always calling rock?)
In any event: First to 50 wins.
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Now this is my kind of tournament!
East - 1, 2, 3, 4
West - 1, 2, 3, 4
South - 1, 2, 3, (?); [? = 12 or 13]
Midwest - 1, 2, (?), 5; [? = 3 or 10]
So of the sixteen Top 4 seeds, we ar guaranteed 13, are favored to get 14, and one of the "misses" is a 5-seed. I wonder how that compares to the chalkiest S16s in history. I also wonder the extent to which this is coincidental or a product of a new and better system for building a tournament. That second one is not something we can realistically come to a conclusion on this year.
This is easily the "chalkiest" Sweet Sixteen I can remember. It is probably the chalkiest ever:
- All four #1 seeds
- All four #2 seeds
- All four #3 seeds
- Two of four #4 seeds
- One #5 seed
- One lonely #12 seed
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I think that they should maybe mandate that a team needs to be at least .500 in their own Conference in order to qualify for an at large bid.
Sorry if this has already been discussed, I haven't read the entire thread. Just sorta jumping in here.
but, that's not fair
some programs unfairly belong to very strong basketball conferences
Yes I follow such a program, and they don't belong on any bubble.
I wanted to come back to this discussion. I think that @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) 's opinion is, in a way, football-based. In football, I agree with his sentiment as I understand it.
As I understand it, Brutus' position is that a team like Ohio State (and all fringe tournament teams) shouldn't be in the tournament anyway because they clearly are not NC material. I agree that Ohio State and all of the other barely-in / barely-out bubble teams are clearly not NC material. In football that would be the end of the discussion for me. They aren't NC material therefore they shouldn't be in the NC tournament.
IMHO, basketball is different. There are a LOT of teams in the NC Tournament that clearly are not NC material. In the first 35 years since they expanded to 64 teams (1985-2019) the bottom four seeds (#13-16) in each region have made a grand combined total of just nine Sweet Sixteen appearances and no #13 or worse has ever won a Sweet Sixteen game:
- The #16's are 1-139 in the 1/16 game and 0-1 in the second round.
- The #15's are 8-132 in the 2/15 game, 1-7 in the second round, and 0-1 in the Sweet Sixteen.
- The #14's are 21-119 in the 3/14 game, 2-19 in the second round, and 0-2 in the Sweet Sixteen.
- The #13's are 29-111 in the 4/13 game, 6-23 in the second round, and 0-6 in the Sweet Sixteen.
My point in sharing this is to demonstrate that approximately the worst 16 conference champions each year are absolutely NOT NC material. Their inclusion in the NC Tournament has no bearing whatsoever on the ultimate NC determination as evidenced by the fact that in 35 years there have been 560 #13-#16 seeds and none of them have EVER won a game in the second weekend of the tournament.
The upsets are cute and fun to watch and it is very entertaining but the worst conference champions in the tournament are just window dressing. They are not even close to competitive, they aren't even close to being bona-fide NC material. It is true that they are all conference Champions but it is also true that Rutgers is the best college basketball team in Picastaway New Jersey. So what? The #13-16 seeds all won a conference tournament that is effectively a tallest midget competition.
In football I completely agree with Brutus' sentiment. IMHO, the football NC should be determined by the elite teams that are NC material. In basketball we already gave up on that idea long, long ago.
While I agree that a team like tOSU isn't NC material, I still wanted them in the tournament. Part of the reason is simply that I knew that there would be ~16 teams worse than Ohio State in the tournament. I also see that as unfair to the teams that just missed the cut. Indiana is better than a whole bunch of teams that got into the NCAA Tournament.
A few years ago when they talked about expanding the tournament I was adamantly opposed for basically the reason that I think Brutus feels that tOSU "(doesn't) belong on any bubble". Since then I've changed my mind. The complete futility of the worst ~16 conference champions has demonstrated, to me anyway, that they aught to all be playing what would effectively be a play-in game.
My new position is that the tournament should be expanded to 80 teams by adding one team to each pod such that the pods would be:
- 1/8/9/16/17
- 2/7/10/15/18
- 3/6/11/14/19
- 4/5/12/13/20
Then I would arrange the first weekend games as follows:
Thursday/Friday:
- One game per pod
- Two games per site
- Four games per region
- Eight games per day
- 16 games total as follows:
- 16/17
- 15/18
- 14/19
- 13/20
Saturday/Sunday:
- Two games per pod
- Four games per site
- Eight games per region
- 16 games per day
- 32 games total as follows:
- 1-16/17
- 2-15/18
- 3-14/19
- 4-13/20
- 5-12
- 6-11
- 7-10
- 8-9
Monday/Tuesday:
- One game per pod
- Two games per site
- Four games per region
- Eight games per day
- 16 games total as follows:
- 1/16/17 vs 8/9
- 2/15/18 v 7/10
- 3/14/19 v 6/11
- 4/13/20 vs 5/12
Starting with the second weekend we would be back to the current schedule.
As I see it, here are the main advantages:
- It would reduce the MASSIVE advantage currently given to weak teams from weak conferences by admitting more at-large teams.
- It would give every team in the tournament a plausible chance to win at least two games. As it stands now the #13-16 seeds have very little chance to win one game, almost no chance to win two, and no #13-16 has ever won three. With this proposed set-up the #13-20 teams would get a reasonably competitive game on Thursday/Friday then a theoretically winnable game on Saturday/Sunday and once in a while one of them would also win a third game on Monday/Tuesday.
- It would make the tournament more watchable: As it stands now, the biggest days are the first Thursday and Friday when most of us are at work and they play 16 games per day. In this system those 16-game days would be on the weekend (Saturday/Sunday) with somewhat less active 8-game days on Thursday, Friday, Monday, and Tuesday.
- That new first weekend would be an even bigger show than it already is. There would be 64 games over Thursday (8), Friday (8), Saturday (16), Sunday (16), Monday (8), and Tuesday (8).
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I wanted to come back to this discussion. I think that @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) 's opinion is, in a way, football-based. In football, I agree with his sentiment as I understand it.
As I understand it, Brutus' position is that a team like Ohio State (and all fringe tournament teams) shouldn't be in the tournament anyway because they clearly are not NC material. I agree that Ohio State and all of the other barely-in / barely-out bubble teams are clearly not NC material. In football that would be the end of the discussion for me. They aren't NC material therefore they shouldn't be in the NC tournament.
IMHO, basketball is different. There are a LOT of teams in the NC Tournament that clearly are not NC material. In the first 35 years since they expanded to 64 teams (1985-2019) the bottom four seeds (#13-16) in each region have made a grand combined total of just nine Sweet Sixteen appearances and no #13 or worse has ever won a Sweet Sixteen game:
- The #16's are 1-139 in the 1/16 game and 0-1 in the second round.
- The #15's are 8-132 in the 2/15 game, 1-7 in the second round, and 0-1 in the Sweet Sixteen.
- The #14's are 21-119 in the 3/14 game, 2-19 in the second round, and 0-2 in the Sweet Sixteen.
- The #13's are 29-111 in the 4/13 game, 6-23 in the second round, and 0-6 in the Sweet Sixteen.
My point in sharing this is to demonstrate that approximately the worst 16 conference champions each year are absolutely NOT NC material. Their inclusion in the NC Tournament has no bearing whatsoever on the ultimate NC determination as evidenced by the fact that in 35 years there have been 560 #13-#16 seeds and none of them have EVER won a game in the second weekend of the tournament.
The upsets are cute and fun to watch and it is very entertaining but the worst conference champions in the tournament are just window dressing. They are not even close to competitive, they aren't even close to being bona-fide NC material. It is true that they are all conference Champions but it is also true that Rutgers is the best college basketball team in Picastaway New Jersey. So what? The #13-16 seeds all won a conference tournament that is effectively a tallest midget competition.
In football I completely agree with Brutus' sentiment. IMHO, the football NC should be determined by the elite teams that are NC material. In basketball we already gave up on that idea long, long ago.
While I agree that a team like tOSU isn't NC material, I still wanted them in the tournament. Part of the reason is simply that I knew that there would be ~16 teams worse than Ohio State in the tournament. I also see that as unfair to the teams that just missed the cut. Indiana is better than a whole bunch of teams that got into the NCAA Tournament.
A few years ago when they talked about expanding the tournament I was adamantly opposed for basically the reason that I think Brutus feels that tOSU "(doesn't) belong on any bubble". Since then I've changed my mind. The complete futility of the worst ~16 conference champions has demonstrated, to me anyway, that they aught to all be playing what would effectively be a play-in game.
My new position is that the tournament should be expanded to 80 teams by adding one team to each pod such that the pods would be:
- 1/8/9/16/17
- 2/7/10/15/18
- 3/6/11/14/19
- 4/5/12/13/20
Then I would arrange the first weekend games as follows:
Thursday/Friday:
- One game per pod
- Two games per site
- Four games per region
- Eight games per day
- 16 games total as follows:
- 16/17
- 15/18
- 14/19
- 13/20
Saturday/Sunday:
- Two games per pod
- Four games per site
- Eight games per region
- 16 games per day
- 32 games total as follows:
- 1-16/17
- 2-15/18
- 3-14/19
- 4-13/20
- 5-12
- 6-11
- 7-10
- 8-9
Monday/Tuesday:
- One game per pod
- Two games per site
- Four games per region
- Eight games per day
- 16 games total as follows:
- 1/16/17 vs 8/9
- 2/15/18 v 7/10
- 3/14/19 v 6/11
- 4/13/20 vs 5/12
Starting with the second weekend we would be back to the current schedule.
As I see it, here are the main advantages:
- It would reduce the MASSIVE advantage currently given to weak teams from weak conferences by admitting more at-large teams.
- It would give every team in the tournament a plausible chance to win at least two games. As it stands now the #13-16 seeds have very little chance to win one game, almost no chance to win two, and no #13-16 has ever won three. With this proposed set-up the #13-20 teams would get a reasonably competitive game on Thursday/Friday then a theoretically winnable game on Saturday/Sunday and once in a while one of them would also win a third game on Monday/Tuesday.
- It would make the tournament more watchable: As it stands now, the biggest days are the first Thursday and Friday when most of us are at work and they play 16 games per day. In this system those 16-game days would be on the weekend (Saturday/Sunday) with somewhat less active 8-game days on Thursday, Friday, Monday, and Tuesday.
- That new first weekend would be an even bigger show than it already is. There would be 64 games over Thursday (8), Friday (8), Saturday (16), Sunday (16), Monday (8), and Tuesday (8).
Consider the argument relinquished.
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I feel bad for Maryland fans. Dude clearly took 3 steps and honestly it was borderline 4. Pretty terrible missed traveling call when it mattered most
Yeah, he traveled, but let's face it, nearly every player driving to the hoop since Michael Jordan showed up takes 3+ steps on every drive. It shouldn't have come down to that...
ETA: yeah, it was actually four steps if count the dragged one, as you pointed out.
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No, let's not talk about expanding the tournament.
If the argument is that we don't want teams without legitimate NC aspirations added, the last thing we should do is expand to 80 teams so that we have *MORE* P5 bubble teams that have no shot at winning the whole thing.
It's true that most of those one-bid leagues have no chance at winning it. So yes, it in some ways dilutes the tournament to even have them gain a bid. But we've set up a rule where they've earned that bid by winning their conference.
Personally, if it were me, I'd go right back to 64 and stay there. I don't see the point of play-in games. They're 11-seed and 16-seed teams that are long shots to even win their first game, much less go any farther.
If you have 64 teams, that gives you 32 auto-bids and 32 at-large. There's a symmetry there that makes a lot of sense. 64 teams has a symmetry to it that you lose with 80 and having a total of 32 teams playing play-in games while the rest of the field sits idle.
The tournament was fine at 64, 65, and it's not truly ruined by 68. No reason to dilute it any further than we already have.
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My thoughts on the Badger game, having been there.
(1) The access to online tickets has really changed the scalping market. Halfway through session 1, there wasn't a scalper around who had tickets to sell; only option was the walkup window, despite a ton of open seats in the arena. Weird.
(2) The Badgers had plenty of opportunities to build a big lead in the first half, but missed too many open shots and put-backs.
(3) The referees were hard to figure out. There were some pretty tight calls made, and then there were pretty stunning no-calls (Happ got drilled while taking a shot without a foul).
(4) The only Badger who put offensive pressure on Oregon was Iverson, but with the way Gard rotates players, he couldn't stay in rhythm.
(5) Oregon dared Wisconsin to shoot open 3s. The poor percentage on their 3s wasn't because they were guarded, it was because they sucked. They picked the wrong afternoon to be off.
(6) When they got down 9 in the second half, they doubled down on their poor outside shooting, which just made things worse.
(7) I put most of it on the coaches.
(8) There was a good crowd of Badger fans. Not surprisingly, more from Oregon, but the Badgers showed up.
But the Wisconsin women won the hockey championship! :-)
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My thoughts on the Badger game, having been there.
(1) The access to online tickets has really changed the scalping market. Halfway through session 1, there wasn't a scalper around who had tickets to sell; only option was the walkup window, despite a ton of open seats in the arena. Weird.
(2) The Badgers had plenty of opportunities to build a big lead in the first half, but missed too many open shots and put-backs.
(3) The referees were hard to figure out. There were some pretty tight calls made, and then there were pretty stunning no-calls (Happ got drilled while taking a shot without a foul).
(4) The only Badger who put offensive pressure on Oregon was Iverson, but with the way Gard rotates players, he couldn't stay in rhythm.
(5) Oregon dared Wisconsin to shoot open 3s. The poor percentage on their 3s wasn't because they were guarded, it was because they sucked. They picked the wrong afternoon to be off.
(6) When they got down 9 in the second half, they doubled down on their poor outside shooting, which just made things worse.
(7) I put most of it on the coaches.
(8) There was a good crowd of Badger fans. Not surprisingly, more from Oregon, but the Badgers showed up.
But the Wisconsin women won the hockey championship! :-)
Can you elaborate?
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No, let's not talk about expanding the tournament.
If the argument is that we don't want teams without legitimate NC aspirations added, the last thing we should do is expand to 80 teams so that we have *MORE* P5 bubble teams that have no shot at winning the whole thing.
It's true that most of those one-bid leagues have no chance at winning it. So yes, it in some ways dilutes the tournament to even have them gain a bid. But we've set up a rule where they've earned that bid by winning their conference.
Personally, if it were me, I'd go right back to 64 and stay there. I don't see the point of play-in games. They're 11-seed and 16-seed teams that are long shots to even win their first game, much less go any farther.
If you have 64 teams, that gives you 32 auto-bids and 32 at-large. There's a symmetry there that makes a lot of sense. 64 teams has a symmetry to it that you lose with 80 and having a total of 32 teams playing play-in games while the rest of the field sits idle.
The tournament was fine at 64, 65, and it's not truly ruined by 68. No reason to dilute it any further than we already have.
I get where you are coming from. To clarify, my argument is not simply to add more teams without legitimate NC aspirations. My position is conditional. Ie, if we are going to have a slew of teams without legitimate NC aspirations, then we should allow other equivalent or better teams in as well because it makes little-or-no sense to me to allow some "unqualified" teams while barring other, better "unqualified" teams.
I know that you, specifically, will have very little sympathy for this situation but I feel that it is unfair to Indiana that they were left out to make room for at least 16 teams that were not as good as they were. When people say "well, those teams were conference champions", I would respond, "Ok, and Indiana was the best college basketball team in the City of Bloomington, Indiana." The conference champion distinction is, in some cases, as meaningless as the "best in the City" distinction. Who cares. What if, for BB purposes only, the B1G decided to continue playing their current schedule but sub-divide into seven mini-conferences of two teams for conference tournament championship purposes and award seven different mini championships. Then, for example (just working E->W):
- RU and UMD could play a B1G-EEE championship game
- PSU and tOSU could play a B1G-EE championship game
- MSU and M could play a B1G-E championship game
- IU and PU could play a B1G-C championship game
- IL and NU could play a B1G-W championship game
- UW and IA could play a B1G-WW championship game
- MN and UNL could play a B1G-WWW championship game
That way we would get more teams in the tournament!
I would be ok with limiting the tournament to only teams with legitimate NC aspirations (roughly the top four seeds in each region) but that would require eliminating the auto-bids and just taking the best 16 teams in the country. If we are not going to get rid of the auto-bids, then I now feel that we should minimize the disparity between the auto-bids and the best teams left out. IMHO, that disparity is too large right now.
FWIW: I could care less about symmetry and, aside from that, what if a new conference forms? Then we'd have 33 auto-bids, would you want to expand the tournament to 66 teams to regain the symmetry? What if two of the existing conferences merged, would you want to shrink the tournament down to 62 teams?
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They had no plan to create any pressure other than to bomb away from 3--and that clearly wasn't working. And when they did start to get pressure out of Iverson, they didn't give him enough minutes to keep up the pressure.
They have been a hot-and-cold shooting team all year. I would have expected a game plan to address a cold-shooting night. They didn't have one. It was no secret that Oregon would play a big lineup, but the coaching staff never adjusted to that.
Generally, I think Gard rotates players too much. He did so again in this game.
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I get where you are coming from. To clarify, my argument is not simply to add more teams without legitimate NC aspirations. My position is conditional. Ie, if we are going to have a slew of teams without legitimate NC aspirations, then we should allow other equivalent or better teams in as well because it makes little-or-no sense to me to allow some "unqualified" teams while barring other, better "unqualified" teams.
I know that you, specifically, will have very little sympathy for this situation but I feel that it is unfair to Indiana that they were left out to make room for at least 16 teams that were not as good as they were. When people say "well, those teams were conference champions", I would respond, "Ok, and Indiana was the best college basketball team in the City of Bloomington, Indiana." The conference champion distinction is, in some cases, as meaningless as the "best in the City" distinction. Who cares. What if, for BB purposes only, the B1G decided to continue playing their current schedule but sub-divide into seven mini-conferences of two teams for conference tournament championship purposes and award seven different mini championships. Then, for example (just working E->W):
- RU and UMD could play a B1G-EEE championship game
- PSU and tOSU could play a B1G-EE championship game
- MSU and M could play a B1G-E championship game
- IU and PU could play a B1G-C championship game
- IL and NU could play a B1G-W championship game
- UW and IA could play a B1G-WW championship game
- MN and UNL could play a B1G-WWW championship game
That way we would get more teams in the tournament!
I would be ok with limiting the tournament to only teams with legitimate NC aspirations (roughly the top four seeds in each region) but that would require eliminating the auto-bids and just taking the best 16 teams in the country. If we are not going to get rid of the auto-bids, then I now feel that we should minimize the disparity between the auto-bids and the best teams left out. IMHO, that disparity is too large right now.
FWIW: I could care less about symmetry and, aside from that, what if a new conference forms? Then we'd have 33 auto-bids, would you want to expand the tournament to 66 teams to regain the symmetry? What if two of the existing conferences merged, would you want to shrink the tournament down to 62 teams?
The disparity argument is interesting, but alas, the value of “Access” will win out, as it does across college sports.
I mean, what is the great injustice of the disparity? What does it do that isn’t good beyond not feel right to a particularly structured mind?
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The disparity argument is interesting, but alas, the value of “Access” will win out, as it does across college sports.
I mean, what is the great injustice of the disparity? What does it do that isn’t good beyond not feel right to a particularly structured mind?
Honestly, a big part of it for me is that I get annoyed constantly hearing how the sport is so unfair to the little guy. That annoys me because it isn't. As I pointed out above, a slew of teams worse than Indiana got into the tournament. They got in because they played in crappy conferences where all they had to do was "be the tallest kid in first grade" to get in. Indiana played a bunch of tough games. They lost some, to be sure, but they also beat Marquette, Louisville, and MSU2x. That is a lot more quality wins than a slew of teams that did get in.
I do believe that the disparity is too large. Now, I'll clarify that:
Part of the disparity is due to conference tournament upsets. I don't mind that. Ie, if a conference has some good teams but they don't win their tournament, I'm ok with the team that pulled off those upsets getting in. That is part of the fun. What I don't like is that there are a bunch of conferences in which it doesn't matter who wins, they all suck. My opinion is that either those conferences shouldn't get auto-bids or there should be more at-large bids such that the disparity is smaller.
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I get where you are coming from. To clarify, my argument is not simply to add more teams without legitimate NC aspirations. My position is conditional. Ie, if we are going to have a slew of teams without legitimate NC aspirations, then we should allow other equivalent or better teams in as well because it makes little-or-no sense to me to allow some "unqualified" teams while barring other, better "unqualified" teams.
I know that you, specifically, will have very little sympathy for this situation but I feel that it is unfair to Indiana that they were left out to make room for at least 16 teams that were not as good as they were. When people say "well, those teams were conference champions", I would respond, "Ok, and Indiana was the best college basketball team in the City of Bloomington, Indiana." The conference champion distinction is, in some cases, as meaningless as the "best in the City" distinction. Who cares. What if, for BB purposes only, the B1G decided to continue playing their current schedule but sub-divide into seven mini-conferences of two teams for conference tournament championship purposes and award seven different mini championships. Then, for example (just working E->W):
For me, it's more of a simple question: would expansion make the tournament itself better. I do agree with you that there is a degree to which you can say the tournament is unfair because lesser teams get in over greater teams simply by winning their conference tournament.
I just don't see how diluting the tournament further actually improves the tournament. I could see shrinking it. I could see doing away with auto-bids entirely. But I think we both know that these alternatives won't happen, because of money.
So my view is that what we have now is fun. It's exciting. It occasionally results in chaos with a #16 UMBC beating a #1 UVA. At the very least, it makes teams like Purdue and MSU and Michigan sweat it out because they don't want to lose to a #15 or #14 seed.
I don't think going to 80 will be anything else than a grab at money and reducing the value of at-large bids because it's so much easier to get one.
FWIW: I could care less about symmetry and, aside from that, what if a new conference forms? Then we'd have 33 auto-bids, would you want to expand the tournament to 66 teams to regain the symmetry? What if two of the existing conferences merged, would you want to shrink the tournament down to 62 teams?
FYI the 32/32 symmetry wasn't key. If it was 34/30 or 30/34, it'd still be pretty close. I think symmetry basically offers "win your conference, and you're in, but there's an equal number of slots for worthy teams from tougher conferences".
I just don't see how going to an 80-team tourney makes anything better, and IMHO letting in *more* unworthy teams makes it worse, so I err on the side of no changes.
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They had no plan to create any pressure other than to bomb away from 3--and that clearly wasn't working. And when they did start to get pressure out of Iverson, they didn't give him enough minutes to keep up the pressure.
They have been a hot-and-cold shooting team all year. I would have expected a game plan to address a cold-shooting night. They didn't have one. It was no secret that Oregon would play a big lineup, but the coaching staff never adjusted to that.
Generally, I think Gard rotates players too much. He did so again in this game.
I think the idea this might have been a “plan” might not be totally accurate. You have a zone full of 6-9 guys. You seem to be generating lots of mostly open 3-point looks for people you believe can hit them, that’s a take.
If you say, the 3s ain’t working, your choices are drive into the thicket of arms with a so-so driving team (not ideal), post more (they did that a good bit), attack he high post for mid-range jumpers and to hit cutters (did that some).
But the larger point is the “cold shooting” fallacy. If you think you have good shooters and they’re open, you assume they’ll hit at some point. If you shoot 3s badly for a half and just stop shooting open 3s, you’re not really helping yourself.
After a rewatch, the turnovers stood out to me. Some were just brutal, Combine that with some really good Pritchard play and some tough shot making from the Ducks. It was a rough one.
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Honestly, a big part of it for me is that I get annoyed constantly hearing how the sport is so unfair to the little guy. That annoys me because it isn't. As I pointed out above, a slew of teams worse than Indiana got into the tournament. They got in because they played in crappy conferences where all they had to do was "be the tallest kid in first grade" to get in. Indiana played a bunch of tough games. They lost some, to be sure, but they also beat Marquette, Louisville, and MSU2x. That is a lot more quality wins than a slew of teams that did get in.
I see this, but I guess I look at it this way.
Through a great many lenses, this sport is highly unfair. It is just magnificently unbalanced. We can talk quality wins, but that too is hideously unbalanced in terms of opportunity with the great span of the sport.
Now, through a certain lens, being a have-not with access but no margin for error is more advantageous. But it doesn’t quite feel that way because of the margin for error. We don’t have a great barometer because conference affiliation/resources mean we can never actually experiment if a team would want the low-margin/worse competition situation.
In the end, I think it’s that particular, uncommon lens which guides your perspective. But it’s a somewhat narrow one.
(An interesting case is UConn, whose path got easier because it’s conference fell apart. It rather impressively managed to get worse, though it’s hardly a clean example)
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Review of how the B1G did through the first two rounds:
Round one:
We had five teams "favored" by seed. Based on past history of teams with those seeds, those five should have produced almost exactly four teams in the second round (4.007). We got four of our five "favorites" so we hit exactly what they should have.
Where we REALLY overperformed was that our three "underdogs" by seed only should have put approximately one team (1.14) into the second round and instead we got all three.
Thus, in the first round we "should have" had approximately 5 winners (5.15) and we had seven so we overperformed by two winners.
Round two:
We had three teams "favored" by seed. Based on past history of teams with those seeds, those three teams should have produced just under two Sweet Sixteen teams (1.76). They overperformed in that all three won.
Unfortunately, our "underdogs" underperformed. Based on past history of teams with those seeds, the five teams that should have been underdogs to get to the Sweet Sixteen should have produced just over one (1.15) Sweet Sixteen teams. Unfortunately none of them made it through. One lost in round one and the other four lost in the second round.
Thus, overall we ended up hitting our expected number of Sweet Sixteen teams almost exactly. Based on their seeds, our eight tournament teams should have resulted in almost exactly three (2.91) in the Sweet Sixteen and we got exactly three.
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I think the idea this might have been a “plan” might not be totally accurate. You have a zone full of 6-9 guys. You seem to be generating lots of mostly open 3-point looks for people you believe can hit them, that’s a take.
If you say, the 3s ain’t working, your choices are drive into the thicket of arms with a so-so driving team (not ideal), post more (they did that a good bit), attack he high post for mid-range jumpers and to hit cutters (did that some).
But the larger point is the “cold shooting” fallacy. If you think you have good shooters and they’re open, you assume they’ll hit at some point. If you shoot 3s badly for a half and just stop shooting open 3s, you’re not really helping yourself.
After a rewatch, the turnovers stood out to me. Some were just brutal, Combine that with some really good Pritchard play and some tough shot making from the Ducks. It was a rough one.
That's fair. I haven't rewatched it--and never had the TV angles. What stood out to me was the number of open shots the Badgers missed, and--outside of Iverson, and a few moments of Happ in the second half--no sustained effort to get the ball inside. And yes, there were some bad turnovers.
For a big man who has a great reputation for his assists, Happ didn't create much space for others on the floor. I'm still unsure why Gard didn't try harder to get Iverson more involved. He was the spark in the first half, but he didn't get the ball much in the second. Also, for a team that has had those cold moments all season, why wouldn't they try more bigs, particularly knowing that they were facing a zone full of big players: Reuvers, and Ford had 17 minutes each. It was one of them and Happ most of the time--why not try a bigger lineup? Particularly knowing they were going to play a team like that, why not practice working with a bigger lineup?
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Easy to be the best player in the country if you can push off like that, then draw fouls when the defender is standing there
Yah this bugged me a lot.
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Aside from OSU has any other team ever made it to the tourney after winning only one game over the entirety of January?
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That's fair. I haven't rewatched it--and never had the TV angles. What stood out to me was the number of open shots the Badgers missed, and--outside of Iverson, and a few moments of Happ in the second half--no sustained effort to get the ball inside. And yes, there were some bad turnovers.
For a big man who has a great reputation for his assists, Happ didn't create much space for others on the floor. I'm still unsure why Gard didn't try harder to get Iverson more involved. He was the spark in the first half, but he didn't get the ball much in the second. Also, for a team that has had those cold moments all season, why wouldn't they try more bigs, particularly knowing that they were facing a zone full of big players: Reuvers, and Ford had 17 minutes each. It was one of them and Happ most of the time--why not try a bigger lineup? Particularly knowing they were going to play a team like that, why not practice working with a bigger lineup?
Iverson is gonna score in the flow. If you're at the point of saying, "how do I set up Iverson?" You've probably already lost.
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I'm glad Xavier has been practicing his hook shot. This contest v Texas Tech is probably the most important game for that hook so far this year. Higher value than normal per basket.
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Michigan isn't the kind of program to rack up these kinds of highlights, so I entirely forgot how seeing them might be fun:
https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1109595547109752832?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1109595547109752832&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.12up.com%2Fposts%2F6327314-video-michigan-s-isaiah-livers-hammers-home-thunderous-fast-break-dunk-and-puts-florida-on-poster
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I prefer a somewhat crazy 1st round, followed by a 2nd round that rights the ship. So while the 1st round could have given us a few more upsets, the 2nd round did what I like it to do. The problem was not enough of the games were actually close.
This should be a great 4 days of really good teams. Last year where you had the chalk side and the crazy side, the dichotomy in level of play was stark. Should be much more even this year.
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Iverson is gonna score in the flow. If you're at the point of saying, "how do I set up Iverson?" You've probably already lost.
SF also mentioned Reuvers and Ford in his response, and that's fair to bring up.
Reuvers has been in a funk for a while. Hopefully he can add some more strength in the offseason and be more of a force next year. He has potential, as he's shown.
As for Ford, well, he doesn't play like a big guy too much. He loves his 3 point shot (I don't) and didn't really show that he's willing to mix it up down low on a regular basis. I think he is what he is, but I'll save more judgement on him for next year. Guys change from year 2 to year 3. I'm not very hopeful, but hey, what the heck is there to lose in hoping?
Could Gard have tried to get them involved more? Perhaps. Not sure what good it would have done, because while they were in the game, not much happened to make me think more minutes would have been a positive thing.
6-30 on 3 point attempts. There's your ball game.
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Iverson is gonna score in the flow. If you're at the point of saying, "how do I set up Iverson?" You've probably already lost.
Except that in the first half, save for the dunk at the end of the half, he was creating his own shots.
I don't disagree that poor shooting did the Badgers in, but I do disagree that there was nothing the coaching staff could do about it. They didn't look prepared to respond. Once the game starts, the coaches have the responsibility of looking for what's working and what isn't, and making adjustments. Throwing their hands up and saying, "well, we didn't shoot well," means they didn't have any backup plan. That's a coaching failure. Particularly because the shooting problem was evident from the first few minutes of both halves.
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Indiana's season has ended.
Unfortunately, there will be no NIT Championship for the B1G this year.
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Except that in the first half, save for the dunk at the end of the half, he was creating his own shots.
I don't disagree that poor shooting did the Badgers in, but I do disagree that there was nothing the coaching staff could do about it. They didn't look prepared to respond. Once the game starts, the coaches have the responsibility of looking for what's working and what isn't, and making adjustments. Throwing their hands up and saying, "well, we didn't shoot well," means they didn't have any backup plan. That's a coaching failure. Particularly because the shooting problem was evident from the first few minutes of both halves.
I went back and did a rewatch. He only attacked when the back line of the defense was kinda pulled up toward half court. That happens because the team is running zone offense and Happ is creating some gravity. That's good approach creating buckets.
I suppose you can argue there needs to be a plan, but just demanding a plan without a sense of what it might be strikes me as frustration transitioning into "DO SOMETHING" and the assumption there's a plan.
UW missed jumpers. UW missed layups. Mid-range jumpers are also jumpers. Assuming 3s were open and the defense was ceding them, that means all the tall guys were in the paint. I guess you could say, "attack that thicket of arms because the shooting isn't there." But it just ain't much of a plan. The coach can yell at the ball to go in. He can say, "Let's take worse shots because the good ones aren't falling," but that's not the opposite of coaching failure. It was frustrating, I get that. But I don't think some shift in plan would've helped.
Getting mad at the turnovers, that's fine. But, the other team made hard shots and UW missed easy ones, not many adjustments can fix that.
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After further review from UMHoops and MGoblog, I think Michigan wins a close one over Texas Tech. They have a great defense, too, but their offense is not quite as good. The key stat will probably be turnovers since Michigan doesn't commit many while Texas Tech forces more than most teams, but they're both average on the opposite side (Michigan forcing them and Texas Tech committing them).... Texas Tech is also mediocre in rebounding at both ends, which Michigan exploited v Florida at both ends. TTU is also more FT-reliant and commits more fouls. If Michigan makes an average # of 3s, it would probably be game over.... Basically the main difference between TTU and Florida is that TTU has a better half-court defense (ie. 2pt and 3pt defense).
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Purdue assistant Greg Gary has been announced as the next head coach at Mercer.
He will not transition until after Purdue's season concludes. I.e. hopefully Apr 9 ;-)
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Kenpom is having an awfully good postseason. It's top 14 teams are still in (had UW won, the top 15 would still be in).
https://kenpom.com/ (https://kenpom.com)
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I.e. hopefully Apr 9 ;-)
Good luck with that!
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Kenpom is having an awfully good postseason. It's top 14 teams are still in (had UW won, the top 15 would still be in).
https://kenpom.com/ (https://kenpom.com)
That is updated through the first two games though.
And I would assume with this much chalk, a lot of rankings look pretty good. For example the AP Top 14 is also all still alive, and 15 of their top 16 (which is actually better than KenPom)
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Hmmm. Thanks for doing the critical thinking. Those are good points. My post was lazy.
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FSU made a game of it at least (recently pulling within 3). Gonzaga has been streaky but seems set to win comfortably.
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Oh danggg! I figured Purdue was still way up on Tennesee. Not sure how, but that's tied at 67 with 6 minutes to go.
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HEY! Anyone paying attention to the Purdue/Tennessee game? The Vols just stormed backed after being limp. The Trains had a huge lead for a while. It's a dog fight now.
BOILER UP!!!
did I do it right?
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Holy smokes, Cline!!!!
LET'S GO BOILERS!
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Wow.
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that was a great effort by Purdue and they rightfully pulled it off. that cline simply couldn't miss... teams with those outside snipers have killed UT all season... Iowa... Auburn.. LSU.. UK... all of them- that's how they did it.
auburn plays similar game to Purdue. I didn't know Purdue could shoot like that.
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Hahaha, there was a power outage in Anaheim, and though the game has started, the booth is still out of commission. So we have Barkely et al. calling the game from the studio and saying they don't like it how the hook and hold rule is "too penal."
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The rims in Anaheim are dead, making bad shooting look even uglier.
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Someone should tell Teske he's tall
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I mean I knew these were the country's top two defenses, but damn if this isn't a lot uglier than I knew to expect.
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I mean I knew these were the country's top two defenses, but damn if this isn't a lot uglier than I knew to expect.
Well, neither team is making their open shots either, and there is zero transition game.
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I think the dead rims you mentioned are playing a noticeable role, also. Also true about the transition game, though that's not surprising in this one.
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Oh man an ugly 3 against you is crushing in this one. (re: the no-look turnaround banked high off the glass at the buzzer)
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This is probably true.
https://twitter.com/mgoblog/status/1111459109558202370
In which case, just keep shooting and trust the law of averages.
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Has there ever been a modern game where a team literally made zero jump shots? 🤢
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Has there ever been a modern game where a team literally made zero jump shots? 🤢
Phew! They made one. It was even outside the paint.
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Silver lining - it may have been inevitable after this season but certainly after this game: Beilein is going to rebuild the offense this offseason. They went to one NC game as an offense-only team. And then one as defense-only. And I wonder if they rested too much on being good enough in the offseason. I'm probably making too much of that, but am hoping we'll revert to a real Beilein offense now and can't imagine why that wouldn't be priorities one through nine.
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Quite the battle between Virginia and Oregon.
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Quite the battle between Virginia and Oregon.
Louisville certainly won out over Anaheim as the better ticket tonight.
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It was an offensive shitshow tonight, and there are no excuses for it. The defense let up in the second half, too.
As I've said even before the BigTen Tournament and even before the MSU matchups, this was a great team that just wasn't good enough to win the biggest games. 30 wins is certainly nothing to be ashamed of.
Next year, everyone but Matthews should return and Michigan could/should be the favorite to win the BigTen. Hopefully the offense will be back to being dominant, because while the team held up well without Matthews at Maryland, I admit that was probably somewhat of a fluke, but Livers in particular has a whole off-season to be prepared to take over his minutes.
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It was an offensive shitshow tonight, and there are no excuses for it. The defense let up in the second half, too.
As I've said even before the BigTen Tournament and even before the MSU matchups, this was a great team that just wasn't good enough to win the biggest games. 30 wins is certainly nothing to be ashamed of.
Next year, everyone but Matthews should return and Michigan could/should be the favorite to win the BigTen. Hopefully the offense will be back to being dominant, because while the team held up well without Matthews at Maryland, I admit that was probably somewhat of a fluke, but Livers in particular has a whole off-season to be prepared to take over his minutes.
The offense needs more pure shooters. Mathews isn't one. Livers is. But nobody is an on-ball defender like Mathews. For this and other reasons, I am guessing the D will drop some and the O will rise. Hopefully the drop is less than the rise. (Is Yaklich about to be poached?)
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I'm in Paris and woke up at 4 am and saw the halftime score and then went back to bed.
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Silver lining - it may have been inevitable after this season but certainly after this game: Beilein is going to rebuild the offense this offseason. They went to one NC game as an offense-only team. And then one as defense-only. And I wonder if they rested too much on being good enough in the offseason. I'm probably making too much of that, but am hoping we'll revert to a real Beilein offense now and can't imagine why that wouldn't be priorities one through nine.
Eh, they were still solid offensively, they just disappeared at times. Obviously better offense is always better, but I think there's always some overreaction, both positive and negative to a single elimination tournament going forward. I don't think it's a coincidence that some of Izzo's most overrated teams (based on preseason ranking) were ones coming off long tourney runs, that may have been a tad fluky based on seed (specifically the '03 Elite 8, '05 Final 4, '10 Final 4, and '15 Final 4 leading to being overrated going into the following season). I still think this year's Michigan team is slightly better than last year, and at worse, on par. This year's team just drew a really good 3 seed Texas Tech, on a night their shots weren't falling. Texas Tech plays great defense, but Michigan was also missing open looks, and Texas Tech made 2-3 lucky ones. Last year's team didn't play a team seeded higher than #6 until the championship, and they needed a miracle shot to win that. So yeah, NC appearance > Sweet 16, but a lot of the circumstances surrounding that is beyond the team's control. I think next year's team should be Beilein's best since 2014, and I don't necessarily think one game in a single elimination tournament changes anything.
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Someone kidnapped the Wolverines and put UW players in their uniforms.
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Chris Beard is a hell of a coach.
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I wonder how Texas feels about him, since he went to school and coached there as an assistant. They can't be too happy with Golden Boy right now.
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I am fine with a Michigan loss turning my bracket on its ear, but the Purdue loss I could have done without.
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Arrgghh! I put too much faith in Michigan. I had them in the final four in all my brackets. I actually had them winning it all in one. :03:
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I am fine with a Michigan loss turning my bracket on its ear, but the Purdue loss I could have done without.
Purdue won.
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I am fine with a Michigan loss turning my bracket on its ear, but the Purdue loss I could have done without.
Purdue Purdid, and won.
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Purdue won.
Not according to the bracket that I just checked.
That's what I get for going to bed at a reasonable hour.
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Looking forward to the MSU game today. Should be a good one.
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Looking forward to the MSU game today. Should be a good one.
LSU has way more NBA talent, but no discipline or coaching. I actually kind of think it won't be a great game, and either the talent comes together, and LSU rolls, or they look like a deer in the headlines and MSU takes care of them.
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I think Izzo's coaching prevails here.
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Ooh, a game even the coaches will pay to see.
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Did everyone do a bracket? I called 7 of the Elite Eight. (Missed Auburn drilling NC with 3's.)
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MSU can get to the Final Four. I think it's real now. Dook has been exposed, and frankly should not be in the tourney anymore.
That UVA defense is legit, but hey, Boiler UP!!
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MSU can get to the Final Four. I think it's real now. Dook has been exposed, and frankly should not be in the tourney anymore.
That UVA defense is legit, but hey, Boiler UP!!
Except Izzo can't beat K
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That monkey is coming off this year.
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Except Izzo can't beat K
He's like 1-12. It's been over the course of like 20 years
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That monkey is coming off this year.
Hoping for another. Purdue hasn't been to the Final Four since 1980. Hasn't been to the Elite Eight (one monkey) since 2000 when we lost to Wisconsin under Dick Bennett (Tony was an assistant coach for that team).
Time to beat Tony Bennett and Virginia as payback.
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Hoping for another. Purdue hasn't been to the Final Four since 1980. Hasn't been to the Elite Eight (one monkey) since 2000 when we lost to Wisconsin under Dick Bennett (Tony was an assistant coach for that team).
Time to beat Tony Bennett and Virginia as payback.
3 months ago, I thought getting a tourney bid was a solid season for this group. Cline and Haarms development has been huge. Would be crazy if it's a rebuilding year that shakes Purdues third weekend monkey.
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3 months ago, I thought getting a tourney bid was a solid season for this group. Cline and Haarms development has been huge. Would be crazy if it's a rebuilding year that shakes Purdues third weekend monkey.
Well, I will say that this team has already broken one barrier. First time Painter has made it past the S16. Amazing that this is in a rebuilding year, with a team that started 6-5 (with a lot of losses to great teams, and a bad loss to ND).
But yeah, I'd love to know what a Final Four feels like. The last time Purdue went, I was 2 years old and not exactly a Boilermaker yet lol...
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Boiler UP!!
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Boiler UP!!
+1
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Holy shit
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Dook has been exposed, and frankly should not be in the tourney anymore.
Why's that?
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Crushing end there. Was a great game. Had they found just a little more magic to win and advance, I wouldn't have been surprised to see Edwards take Glen Rice's crown as the all-time tournament scoring leader.
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I've been reading others' thoughts of the game and it got me thinking:
(1) It's hard to come down on Cline for missing that FT. Not only for the cliche reason that they couldn't have gotten here without him but also because he's a 71% FT shooter, which gave him almost precisely a 50% chance of making both.
(2) The final offensive series was unexpected. Why not go up the center of the court? Hindsight is hardly the best way to judge sports, so mostly I'm curious of Painter's thinking. He drew it up that way for a reason. Probably a good reason and Bennett just got him. I just want to be inside their heads about that.
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On the WVU board they were killing Painter for fouling at the end of regulation but I like that strategy. It just didn’t work out this time.
Here is what I think was Painter’s thinking on the last possession. I think he either anticipated UVA sending a double on Edwards once he crossed half court or anticipated Edwards being fouled. Either way he wanted to get the ball up court and get a shot off before either could happen. But that pass up the sideline doesn’t leave a lot of room for error.
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Heartbreaking end for the Boilermakers.
Hopefully MSU can win this evening.
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Major bummer. Mrs. 847 and I were rooting hard, to no avail. Dammit.
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Why's that?
Because they got bailed out by their buddies in black and white, last week.
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On the WVU board they were killing Painter for fouling at the end of regulation but I like that strategy. It just didn’t work out this time.
I thought the same. Honestly it was sort of a miracle that he didn't end up correct. When the rebound ricocheted way past half court, I figured it was over. Because a pinpoint perfect 3/4 length pass and sinking a contested, buzz beating tear drop 2-pointer was not a likely final 4 seconds.
Here is what I think was Painter’s thinking on the last possession. I think he either anticipated UVA sending a double on Edwards once he crossed half court or anticipated Edwards being fouled. Either way he wanted to get the ball up court and get a shot off before either could happen. But that pass up the sideline doesn’t leave a lot of room for error.
Yeah, it was a tough pass. And even tougher if you figure that it's practically guaranteed to be a jacked 3 by Edwards or Cline and both are being tightly defended against a 12-inch think alley at the sideline.
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Because they got bailed out by their buddies in black and white, last week.
Meh. The 2 missed calls in the last 30-seconds? The complaints are legitimate but missed calls like that happen all the time and I thought there were several bad calls in UCF's favor earlier in the game. You'd prefer the reffing to be perfect, but at least it was even or close enough. Also, complaining about the reffing misses how that was perhaps the best contest of the tournament (though there are 3-4 candidates, especially after last night).
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Well, I'm glad I didn't reschedule our anniversary dinner to watch Purdue lose. They fought like hell, but Virginia is just a damn good basketball team.
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Well, I'm glad I didn't reschedule our anniversary dinner to watch Purdue lose. They fought like hell, but Virginia is just a damn good basketball team.
Wow, you are quite the good husband. This gives me an idea for a new thread because I definitely would have rescheduled the dinner.
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this is why I'm not married or in a relationship
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I thought the same. Honestly it was sort of a miracle that he didn't end up correct. When the rebound ricocheted way past half court, I figured it was over. Because a pinpoint perfect 3/4 length pass and sinking a contested, buzz beating tear drop 2-pointer was not a likely final 4 seconds.
If someone felt that was an outcome from strategy, I have no way to help them.
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Wow, you are quite the good husband. This gives me an idea for a new thread because I definitely would have rescheduled the dinner.
Oh this dinner has been planned for quite some time.
But to be clear, before selection Sunday I made it clear that if Purdue was in the elite eight in Anaheim, we would be there instead of dinner...
She said "of course but we're stopping at the Louis Voitton store on the way..."
I think it would have been worth it lol...
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Let's go ahead and call this art:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JordanBo_3/status/1112421166185136128
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thieving Hawkeyes!
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Go Green!
Down to our last chance for a Final Four entry.
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Nick can't keep missing bunnies.
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Sparty! What a game
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Sparty!!!!
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Nice job, Sparty.
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Congrats Sparty.I couldn't watch - every time I turned on the tube Duke would rally,surge or be winning.Check scores on Line or listen to the radio and Sparty would represent ;D
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Duke should have fouled more I guess.
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ELA SANDBAGGING WORKED!!!!!
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nice work Sparty!!!
Dook's luck runs out
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I saw it coming.
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ELA SANDBAGGING WORKED!!!!!
Heh, if we were in any other region, I liked our chances. Duke, no matter how up or down they are, they have our number. Happy to be wrong.
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Heh, if we were in any other region, I liked our chances. Duke, no matter how up or down they are, they have our number. Happy to be wrong.
Happy to be right. :)
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Tillman is awesome.
https://twitter.com/MessengerSports/status/1112494014819794944?s=19
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Cassius Winston named 1st team AP All-American, but missing 1st team Consensus All-American by 1 point.
He would have become the 6th 1st team Consensus All-American in MSU history, joining Magic Johnson (1979), Shawn Respert (1995), Mateen Cleaves (1999), Draymond Green (2012) and Denzel Valentine (2016).
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Cassius Winston named 1st team AP All-American, but missing 1st team Consensus All-American by 1 point.
He would have become the 6th 1st team Consensus All-American in MSU history, joining Magic Johnson (1979), Shawn Respert (1995), Mateen Cleaves (1999), Draymond Green (2012) and Denzel Valentine (2016).
He might be better than all of them except Magic. I didn't watch MSU earlier in the season, but with the injuries to Langford and to a lesser extent Ward, and they now funnel everything through him, and he almost singlehandedly keeps MSU from going through scoring droughts. Against Duke he made a huge play whenever they needed a bucket, and his ballhandling kept the turnovers very low in the face of a very active Duke defense. I've been thoroughly impressed.
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He might be better than all of them except Magic.
Man, I don't know. Cleaves might be my favorite MSU player of all time. Not better than Magic, but my favorite. The guy was money, and nobody beats that smile.
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(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsayhey.files.wordpress.com%2F2007%2F03%2Fmat403.jpg&hash=d94b451a4d5606bcfae3593b2c2f893e)
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Cassius Winston named 1st team AP All-American, but missing 1st team Consensus All-American by 1 point.
He would have become the 6th 1st team Consensus All-American in MSU history, joining Magic Johnson (1979), Shawn Respert (1995), Mateen Cleaves (1999), Draymond Green (2012) and Denzel Valentine (2016).
I would have bet a good amount of money Steve Smith would be on that list.
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quick Shawn Respert story. It wasn't too many years later where that guy was hanging around college kids I knew playing video games often seen late night at taco bell. It was weird for me to see him in that way. I had only known him from his dominance at MSU. This was before we all knew about his cancer (stomach?). That guy was a great college basketball player. Very tough luck story.
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Hawkeyes women were shut down Monday in the Elite 8, but it was not entirely by Baylor. They had a lot of good shots, and aired it, bricked it, and otherwise looked bad while trying to overachieve, which was the real mistake. It they had played their game and not been so over charged up over the #1 team in the nation, it could have been more of a game, but c'est la vie. They acquitted themselves well, all season.
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An incredible young lady. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oy5vkYb17Ew
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Rumor mill says that Arkansas is interested in both Minn's Richard Pitino and Iowa's Fran McCaffery. A private jet from Fayetteville was recently seen in both Iowa City and MSP.
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If I were either school I certainly wouldn't get into a bidding war over those guys
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Rumor mill says that Arkansas is interested in both Minn's Richard Pitino and Iowa's Fran McCaffery. A private jet from Fayetteville was recently seen in both Iowa City and MSP.
I think UW fans would be sad to see Fran gone. Not sure about Pitino. He might have them in a better way.
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It might be time for Fran. I think he's grown stale, on his side and the fan side. Seems like it anyway. Ricky loses a lot from this year, I think? Not sure what he has coming back.
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many Hawk fans would not be sorry or sad
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I don't know much about him beyond his myriad of meltdowns.
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I see two knucklehead Big East refs will be amongst the crew of refs working this year's FF. M. Breeding disgraced himself in the 9 Technical, 3 ejection, 49 foul, 85 FTA game b/t Marq and SH in the Big East Semifinal, probably one of the worst officiated sporting events I have ever seen. The other joker worked w Breeding in another SH game vs St. Johns which ended badly.
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Now that we are down to four, who do you have? FWIW, I have UVA over MSU.
Note, this isn't what I want, what I want is MSU over Auburn but I think the actual result will be UVA over MSU.
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I have one bracket with a slight chance to win some $$$
but I need the underdogs to win, I had Duke/UNC so no more points available. I'm currently tied for 1st place. I would need a high scoring final to break the tie in my favor and that is unlikely if Texas Tech is in the final
rooting for Tech, don't think they can do it
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Bob Knight sighting today at Penn st at IU baseball game in Bloomington. Rare sighting on campus since 2000.
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So absolutely loved the National Anthem presentation.
May have been the best I have ever seen for a sporting event.
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Loved it too.
I'd be all over the other Final Four stuff in town if I wasn't moving my stuff.
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Virginia with a flare for losing in epic fashion
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WHAT!
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Well now this is an ending
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Did auburn call timeout? Why is there a commercial?
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And yes that's a foul, but it feels like an Offensive lineman holding; where it happens every play, but only gets called once a game.
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Did auburn call timeout? Why is there a commercial?
Yes trying to freeze the field goal kicker.
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Well that was a game
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That's Reggie Miller type heroics. 6 points in 8 seconds. amazing.
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It was clearly a foul. Hope no Auburn fans make a big deal about it.
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Yes trying to freeze the field goal kicker.
For a second i thought they actually just put a commercial break between foul shots
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And yes that's a foul, but it feels like an Offensive lineman holding; where it happens every play, but only gets called once a game.
I mean, maybe? Getting up into the body of a three point shooter does get called.
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I mean, maybe? Getting up into the body of a three point shooter does get called.
OK. But did you see the Auburn player get mauled for his final desperation heave? Knocked his @ss on the ground, hit his arms, and body, A-B type jump as well. Where is the call on that?
Just saying, that type of contact happens all the time without getting called. (Yes, it does get called sometimes, but not all the time. Similar to O-line holding gets called, but not all the time.)
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The missed double dribble will be where the controversy comes from.
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OK. But did you see the Auburn player get mauled for his final desperation heave? Knocked his @ss on the ground, hit his arms, and body, A-B type jump as well. Where is the call on that?
Just saying, that type of contact happens all the time without getting called. (Yes, it does get called sometimes, but not all the time. Similar to O-line holding gets called, but not all the time.)
It's not just contact. In that final play the auburn shooter jumped into a Virginia player. That shouldn't be called. But defenders jumping into shooters should be called.
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For a second i thought they actually just put a commercial break between foul shots
Pretty sure I've seen that during a Maryland game.
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That foul that put Kyle Guy on the line at the end is a foul all day long at all levels.
And State is getting absolutely choked out right now.
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Sparty with a strong comeback but look to be on life support now
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Nothing in the tank on the defensive end in the second half. Not sure how to feel. This team grossly overachieved, so a Final 4 in phenomenal, bit they also knocked off the best team, and a national title was there for the taking, and they couldn't get it done.
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Mrs. 847 told me after we watched Tech trounce Buffalo that they would win this thing. I discounted that, of course.
What a dumbass I am. I should just listen to my wife. Tech is gonna win this thing.
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well stated
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Mrs. 847 told me after we watched Tech trounce Buffalo that they would win this thing. I discounted that, of course.
What a dumbass I am. I should just listen to my wife. Tech is gonna win this thing.
You know how many women win brackets simply because they wing it.Where of course men tend to analyze every trend,fact,stat or info that could factor into the outcome
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MSU will be better next year.
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You know how many women win brackets simply because they wing it.Where of course men tend to analyze every trend,fact,stat or info that could factor into the outcome
Another way of putting that is that women think more holistically, whereas men tend to compartmentalize. ;)
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You know how many women win brackets simply because they wing it.Where of course men tend to analyze every trend,fact,stat or info that could factor into the outcome
True, though it also speaks to the fact the brackets by nature are just random enough to defy logic more often than not.
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Well, I won my pool (roughly $800). The first time I've filled out a bracket in 5 years.....in which I also won and earned $500 5 years ago. It almost makes me wonder if I wouldn't be too bad at trying a hand in sports betting, but fortunately I'm smart enough to know that it is a bad, predictable road to go down.
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Well, I won my pool (roughly $800). The first time I've filled out a bracket in 5 years.....in which I also won and earned $500 5 years ago. It almost makes me wonder if I wouldn't be too bad at trying a hand in sports betting, but fortunately I'm smart enough to know that it is a bad, predictable road to go down.
Finished 3rd but there were 93 people in it so he may pay out more than one spot. I guess we’ll see. Four of us out of 93 had UVA winning it all. I actually think these default scoring systems by ESPN and Yahoo award too many points for picking the correct champion.
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I'm just glad we don't have to hear that annoying blow horn from MPLS anymore. Made the game hard to watch.
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I actually just checked my pool. The two guys who finished above me tied so it came down to the score tiebreaker. One dude had a total score of 140 points and the other of 138. That’s as close as I’ve ever seen it.
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To carry over a couple of other conversations I've had, that overturn last night is one of the things I dislike about replay, in aspects it actually changes the way the game is called. The Virginia player knocked the ball out of bounds. On the way it grazed the pinky of the dribbler. I would imagine that actually happens quite a bit. This isn't two guys lunging after a loose ball and you can't tell who touched it. Texas Tech had the ball, Virginia poked it out of bounds. I feel the same way about what it's done in baseball with guys popping off the base just barely on slides. It's one thing to get a call right, it's another thing IMO to change the way something has always been called.
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I actually just checked my pool. The two guys who finished above me tied so it came down to the score tiebreaker. One dude had a total score of 140 points and the other of 138. That’s as close as I’ve ever seen it.
Damn went down to wire like many of the games.It's madness even in the brackets
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Well, I won my pool (roughly $800). The first time I've filled out a bracket in 5 years.....in which I also won and earned $500 5 years ago. It almost makes me wonder if I wouldn't be too bad at trying a hand in sports betting, but fortunately I'm smart enough to know that it is a bad, predictable road to go down.
I could use a little of that good fortune.Just by a lottery ticket
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To carry over a couple of other conversations I've had, that overturn last night is one of the things I dislike about replay, in aspects it actually changes the way the game is called. The Virginia player knocked the ball out of bounds. On the way it grazed the pinky of the dribbler. I would imagine that actually happens quite a bit. This isn't two guys lunging after a loose ball and you can't tell who touched it. Texas Tech had the ball, Virginia poked it out of bounds. I feel the same way about what it's done in baseball with guys popping off the base just barely on slides. It's one thing to get a call right, it's another thing IMO to change the way something has always been called.
Yeah, I know what you are saying. If that happens at any other time of the game it isn’t reviewed and there probably isn’t even a replay shown and no one thinks twice about it. I couldn’t help but feel bad for Tech. That was a tough break.
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To carry over a couple of other conversations I've had, that overturn last night is one of the things I dislike about replay, in aspects it actually changes the way the game is called. The Virginia player knocked the ball out of bounds. On the way it grazed the pinky of the dribbler. I would imagine that actually happens quite a bit. This isn't two guys lunging after a loose ball and you can't tell who touched it. Texas Tech had the ball, Virginia poked it out of bounds. I feel the same way about what it's done in baseball with guys popping off the base just barely on slides. It's one thing to get a call right, it's another thing IMO to change the way something has always been called.
I'm not sure the video was absolutely conclusive on the pinky touch
I didn't like the overturn
but, I was rooting for Tech
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I'm not sure the video was absolutely conclusive on the pinky touch
I didn't like the overturn
but, I was rooting for Tech
Yeah, I don't know who I was rooting for. It's rare in a game of that magnitude for me not to pick a side as the game goes on, but I found both teams likable. Then from a basketball standpoint, Virginia is probably the more worthy champion in terms of putting together a full season from November through April, but they also needed miracles just to win each of their last two games, while Texas Tech destroyed Buffalo and Michigan, and felt in control against Gonzaga and MSU. They played the best basketball in this event.
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I agree about the finger touch out of bounds calls. I feel like they need to change it to a higher standard, or give them only a couple looks at it. If it ain't obvious, no reason to overturn it.
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TT lost the game because of a mental defensive mistake at the end.... they didn't protect the 3 despite their coach yelling "no three's and no +1". TT, known for their smart defense, lost the game on their biggest strength. I feel bad for them... Virginia has the resources to be back. TT..... not impossible, but less likely.
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TT lost the game because of a mental defensive mistake at the end.... they didn't protect the 3 despite their coach yelling "no three's and no +1". TT, know for their smart defense, lost the game on their biggest strength. I feel bad for them... Virginia has the resources to be back. TT..... not impossible, but less likely.
Yup, Hunter's defender completely bailed to help on the driver. He did so out of control too, so that even if there wasn't the kick out, he probably would have fouled him.
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Very happy for Tony and his pappy today. That family is all class.
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Very happy for Tony and his pappy today. That family is all class.
Any chance he ever returns home?
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I agree about the finger touch out of bounds calls. I feel like they need to change it to a higher standard, or give them only a couple looks at it. If it ain't obvious, no reason to overturn it.
As a Badger fan, damn right if the finger touched the ball and it's right there on replay, it's out on him. Grrrr. #NeverDuke
;)
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Any chance he ever returns home?
Never say never, but highly doubtful.
He and Gard coached on Ryan's staff. If there was a time for a hire, it would have been when Bo first told Barry he was leaving, but Barry talked him into not leaving (which he did anyway, mid-season).
Barry could have brought Bennett in that summer to talk. The way it shook out, Barry was kinda forced to hire Gard (I have no problem with this). I couldn't see Tony interested if Gard were pushed out. Those two are still friends.
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Yeah, I don't know who I was rooting for. It's rare in a game of that magnitude for me not to pick a side as the game goes on, but I found both teams likable. Then from a basketball standpoint, Virginia is probably the more worthy champion in terms of putting together a full season from November through April, but they also needed miracles just to win each of their last two games, while Texas Tech destroyed Buffalo and Michigan, and felt in control against Gonzaga and MSU. They played the best basketball in this event.
Three games.
The Purdue game, they were down 2 with 5.9 sec left and shooting their second [of two] free throws. They unintentionally missed the FT, had the rebound tipped ALL the way into the backcourt, had a very heady play by a freshman guard to [instead of chucking up a desperation three] heave a pass back into the front-court, where an off-balance rushed turnaround jumper released with about 0.3 on the clock managed to rattle in to force OT.
Some Purdue fans were a little salty as well, because from the moment the rebound was touched to the start of the game clock was about 0.5 sec, so had the reaction time of the clock operator been slightly better, UVA doesn't even get the tying shot off. I'm not salty personally about that, those are the breaks. But they were certainly helped a bit by chance there.
Virginia was just the team of destiny in this one. Maybe it's karma repaying them for forever being the answer to the trivia question of the only 1 to be upset by a 16 last year.
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Three games.
The Purdue game, they were down 2 with 5.9 sec left and shooting their second [of two] free throws. They unintentionally missed the FT, had the rebound tipped ALL the way into the backcourt, had a very heady play by a freshman guard to [instead of chucking up a desperation three] heave a pass back into the front-court, where an off-balance rushed turnaround jumper released with about 0.3 on the clock managed to rattle in to force OT.
Some Purdue fans were a little salty as well, because from the moment the rebound was touched to the start of the game clock was about 0.5 sec, so had the reaction time of the clock operator been slightly better, UVA doesn't even get the tying shot off. I'm not salty personally about that, those are the breaks. But they were certainly helped a bit by chance there.
Virginia was just the team of destiny in this one. Maybe it's karma repaying them for forever being the answer to the trivia question of the only 1 to be upset by a 16 last year.
I meant their previous two games being Purdue and Auburn. Last night they hit a 3 to tie it with like 12 seconds left, but it was just a big shot, not a miracle.
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I meant their previous two games being Purdue and Auburn. Last night they hit a 3 to tie it with like 12 seconds left, but it was just a big shot, not a miracle.
Ahh, understood. Although you could potentially classify the "off the fingertips of a TTU player" changed call being at least a LITTLE bit of a miracle...
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TT lost the game because of a mental defensive mistake at the end.... they didn't protect the 3 despite their coach yelling "no three's and no +1". TT, known for their smart defense, lost the game on their biggest strength. I feel bad for them... Virginia has the resources to be back. TT..... not impossible, but less likely.
Yep. They gave up the open 3. They would have been better to have fouled the guy and made him make 3 FTs.
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Eh, they were still solid offensively, they just disappeared at times. Obviously better offense is always better, but I think there's always some overreaction, both positive and negative to a single elimination tournament going forward. I don't think it's a coincidence that some of Izzo's most overrated teams (based on preseason ranking) were ones coming off long tourney runs, that may have been a tad fluky based on seed (specifically the '03 Elite 8, '05 Final 4, '10 Final 4, and '15 Final 4 leading to being overrated going into the following season). I still think this year's Michigan team is slightly better than last year, and at worse, on par. This year's team just drew a really good 3 seed Texas Tech, on a night their shots weren't falling. Texas Tech plays great defense, but Michigan was also missing open looks, and Texas Tech made 2-3 lucky ones. Last year's team didn't play a team seeded higher than #6 until the championship, and they needed a miracle shot to win that. So yeah, NC appearance > Sweet 16, but a lot of the circumstances surrounding that is beyond the team's control. I think next year's team should be Beilein's best since 2014, and I don't necessarily think one game in a single elimination tournament changes anything.
I wanted to come back to this now that the tournament is over because I agree with what @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) said here and I think it deserves more recognition.
Due to the nature of the tournament I think we tend to oversimplify and remember only how far a team got in the tournament but the reality is that this does not tell the whole story. A few examples: I completely agree with ELA that this year's Michigan team was better than last year's Michigan team. That said, 20 years from now the 2018 version will be more loved by Michigan fans because they got to the NCG whereas the 2019 version "only" got to the Sweet Sixteen.
Two similar examples involving Ohio State:
In 2010/2011 the Buckeyes "only" made it to the Sweet Sixteen, losing 62-60 to Kentucky. Then in 2011/2012 the Buckeyes made it all the way to the Final Four before losing to Kansas 64-62. Nobody will ever convince me that the 2011/2012 Buckeyes were better than the 2010/2011 Buckeyes. The difference was that the 2011/2012 Buckeyes were simply luckier. They were a #2 seed and got a #6 (Cincy) instead of a #3 in the Sweet Sixteen then got an injury-hobbled #1 seed in the Elite-8. The 2010/2011 Buckeyes had the misfortune of catching an underseeded (IMHO) #4 seed Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen and having an off night. That ended it.
The other example involving Ohio State is back in the 1990's. I don't remember the years exactly but I think it was 1998 when Ohio State had a rather surprising Final-Four run. They were not actually all that good and nowhere close to one of the top four teams in the Country but they got hot, caught a few breaks, and made it to the Final Four. Then the next year with nearly that entire team back they got cold and had an early exit from the tournament. Similarly, I will never be convinced that the Final Four team was better than the following year's early exit team but those things happen in a single elimination tournament.
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Yeah, of the “Press Virginia” WVU teams that made the tournament from 15-18 I think the 2016 version was probably the best and they were the only one not to reach the Sweet 16. They were upset by Stephen F. Austin in the first round so they are remembered differently
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To be honest, I think the 2017-18 Boilers were better than the 2018-19 team, despite not winning a share of the B1G regular season, not winning the BTT, and not getting past the S16. While the 2018-19 won a share of the B1G regular season and made it to the Elite Eight and was a fluke play away from the Final Four.
2017-18 was just a complete team, with experience and high BBIQ at every position. Oh, and Haas was damn near unguardable on the block, while being surrounded by 4 players who shot 40%+ from 3PT. It was total pick-your-poison. Double Haas? Shooters will kill you. Single-cover Haas? Yeah, good luck with that. The only team that I saw truly defend Haas one-on-one was MSU, and they had Schilling [IIRC] basically playing football with him trying to drive him out to the elbow instead of on letting him establish on the block. Haas was second only to Carsen in USG%, was shooting 62% from the floor, 75% from the stripe (>5 attempts/game), and anchored the offense.
Only team in Purdue history to win 30 games. I think had Haas not gone down in the tourney with an injury, it changes the story.
2018-19 was interesting. It was far more athletic top-to-bottom. Even when Carsen was in a slump, other guys stepped up and Purdue kept winning. But the team revolved around Carsen. Heck, the team was great at offensive rebounding because 4 players could be setting up to get ORB when they knew Carsen was going to be jacking up so many shots. The team worked as a team because you had one superstar and guys around him who could flourish with him taking so much defensive attention, but it was not always balanced basketball.
The 2018-19 was exciting as hell to watch. The 2017-18 team was more like Alabama football. They were going to just do their boring thing of working everything through the post and dare you to stop them, slowly strangling you as your bigs get tired from dealing with trying to defend Haas while 4 other guys just start raining down threes over your heads.
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LOL
Cute
https://twitter.com/TerpsWatch/status/1115461665645051904?s=09
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From 1985 (expansion to 64 teams) through 2019 (35 tournaments) here are the winners in each round:
Seed | R64 | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | NF |
1 | 139 | 120 | 97 | 58 | 35 | 22 |
2 | 132 | 89 | 64 | 28 | 12 | 5 |
3 | 119 | 74 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 4 |
4 | 111 | 66 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 1 |
5 | 90 | 47 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
6 | 88 | 42 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
7 | 85 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
8 | 68 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
9 | 72 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
10 | 55 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
11 | 52 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
12 | 50 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
13 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
14 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Here it is as a percentage chance (based on historical results) for a team of a given seed to win at a given round:
Seed | R64 | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | NF |
1 | 99.29% | 85.71% | 69.29% | 41.43% | 25.00% | 15.71% |
2 | 94.29% | 63.57% | 45.71% | 20.00% | 8.57% | 3.57% |
3 | 85.00% | 52.86% | 25.71% | 12.14% | 7.86% | 2.86% |
4 | 79.29% | 47.14% | 15.00% | 9.29% | 2.14% | 0.71% |
5 | 64.29% | 33.57% | 6.43% | 5.00% | 2.14% | 0.00% |
6 | 62.86% | 30.00% | 10.00% | 2.14% | 1.43% | 0.71% |
7 | 60.71% | 19.29% | 7.14% | 2.14% | 0.71% | 0.71% |
8 | 48.57% | 9.29% | 5.71% | 3.57% | 2.14% | 0.71% |
9 | 51.43% | 5.00% | 2.86% | 0.71% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
10 | 39.29% | 16.43% | 5.71% | 0.71% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
11 | 37.14% | 15.71% | 5.71% | 2.86% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
12 | 35.71% | 15.00% | 0.71% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
13 | 20.71% | 4.29% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
14 | 15.00% | 1.43% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
15 | 5.71% | 0.71% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
16 | 0.71% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |