2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

Big Ten not looking great.  I'm assuming UM and Purdue will pull it out against overmatched opponents in the end, like OSU did, but Illinois, of all teams, is the only team playing well so far.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Big Ten not looking great.  I'm assuming UM and Purdue will pull it out against overmatched opponents in the end, like OSU did, but Illinois, of all teams, is the only team playing well so far.

Purdue playing like dog feces. 

[ELA]

Purdue playing like dog feces.

I think Purdue just is dog feces this year, surrounding the best player in the Big Ten.
Reminds me a lot of 2007 MSU with Edwards playing the role of Drew Neitzel.  He's good enough, and there should be enough talent somewhere on that roster that they are capable of pulling an upset, but night in and night out it's him and a lot of nothing.

[betarhoalphadelta]

And there is Purdue's [first] bad loss. 

Hard to imagine that this team is still Tier 2 in the B1G.

[MichiFan87]

Michigan played awful on offense today and not great on defense, either. Too many forced shots in particular. Brazdeikis had by far his worst game, but fortunately Simpson hit 3 threes.

Western Michigan is the lowest-rated MAC team, but they did look better than expected to be fair, so I think they'll do okay in their league, especially if they learn how to reduce their turnovers.

Still no playing time for Johns or DeJulius, but hopefully they can play better against Air Force and/or Binghamton to get them in.

[MaximumSam]

Weird game for OSU. A game of runs, where OSU choir a 12 point lead, then gave up a 24-4 run, then they went back up by 10, then gave up a run at the end to make it close.

[ELA]

Looks like MSU avoided the finals hangover that hit the rest of the conference yesterday

[ELA]

Nick Ward is 20 for 20 over his last two home games.

[medinabuckeye1]

Some unexpected close calls, a bad game for Purdue, and a nice win for Indiana this weekend.  

In setting up the tier spreadsheet I used the worldwide leader's estimated chances of winning to get a baseline for estimating OOC records.  Here are this weekend's games along with what happened:

• Michigan had a 96.6% chance to beat WMU:  won by 8
• MSU had a 95.3% chance to beat GB:  won by 21
• Ohio State had a 91.4% chance to beat Bucknell:  won by 2
• Iowa had an 85.8% chance to beat UNI:  won by 23
• Nebraska had a 78.9% chance to beat OkSU:  won by 23
• Purdue had a 68.8% chance to beat Notre Dame:  lost by 8
• Illinois had a 63.5% chance to beat ETSU:  won by 18
• Indiana had a 47.6% chance to beat Butler:  won by 3
• Rutgers had a 28.5% chance to beat Seton Hall:  lost by 6
• Penn State had a 26.3% chance to beat NCST:  lost by 11

So by my count:

• Overperformed:  Illinois, Indiana
• Performed roughly as expected:  MSU, Iowa, Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State
• Underperformed:  Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue

[medinabuckeye1]

Hard to imagine that this team is still Tier 2 in the B1G.

Per earlier posts, moving them down to tier-3 would change their projected final standings from the current projection of 20-11/13-7 to 17-14/10-10.  The potential games in which that would make a difference:

• vs Michigan (not on the schedule)
• at Iowa (not on the schedule)
• at Penn State 1/31
• at Minnesota 3/5
• at Northwestern 3/9

It may take a while before we can make a determination on this.  Purdue's last two OOC games (vs Ohio, vs Belmont) will not tell us much unless the Boilermakers lose which they obviously shouldn't.  Then their first four conference games in January are two that should be easy wins (for a tier-2 or tier-3 team) and two that should be losses either way.  As either a tier-2 or a tier-3 team they should:

• win the two remaining OOC games
• beat Iowa at home on 1/3
• lose in East Lansing on 1/8
• lose in Madison on 1/11
• beat Rutgers at home on 1/15
• beat Indiana at home on 1/19
• lose in Columbus on 1/23
• beat MSU at home on 1/27

The thing that might make Purdue extra hard to read is that if @ELA is right and they are the best player in the B1G (Edwards) and nothing around him, that sounds like a recipe for inconsistency.  One player can really take over a BB game so if Edwards is hot they might win in East Lansing or Madison.  OTOH, if he isn't they could lose to Rutgers or Iowa.  If they do one or the other that is an easy adjustment (or no adjustment needed) but if they do both, then what?  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well, I think we'll need to look at them qualitatively in those games regarding how they play, and quantitatively with respect to score differential, more than just looking at W/L. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Well, I think we'll need to look at them qualitatively in those games regarding how they play, and quantitatively with respect to score differential, more than just looking at W/L.

I agree.  Some of that is OOC and I agree with you, Purdue looks like they are on the Tier-2/Tier-3 border.  We aren't going to learn anything from their remaining OOC games against Ohio and Belmont.  Once we get to conference play:

• Iowa at home on 1/3:  This should be a pretty easy win for a tier-2 team, closer but still a win for tier-3.  
• MSU on the road on 1/8:  This should be a competitive loss for a tier-2 team, less competitive for tier-3.  
• UW on the road on 1/11:  This should be a competitive loss for a tier-2 team, less competitive for tier-3.  
• RU at home on 1/15:  This should be a blowout win for tier-2, somewhat closer for tier-3.  
• IU at home on 1/19:  This should be a competitive win for tier-2, a close win for tier-3.  
• tOSU on the road on 1/23:  This should be a competitive loss for a tier-2 team, less competitive for tier-3.  
• MSU at home on 1/27:  This should be a competitive win for a tier-2 team, a close win for tier-3.  

As we get 3, 4, 5 games into the season we can compare and see how Purdue is doing relative to expectations.  You are right, it isn't just about W's and L's.  If the Boilermakers go 2-2 in the first four they could be either tier-2 or tier-3:

• With blowout losses in East Lansing and Madison and last second wins at home over Iowa and RU, move down to tier-3.  
• With blowout wins at home over Iowa and RU and last second losses in East Lansing and Madison, stay in tier-2.  

[ELA]

The coaches should be ashamed


https://twitter.com/RMoses10/status/1074082771168083973?s=19

[ELA]

Massey composite rankings (46 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...

• Duke (1)
• MICHIGAN (2)
• Kansas (4)
• Virginia (6)
• MICHIGAN STATE (5)
• Tennessee (7)
• Gonzaga (3)
• Nevada (8)
• North Carolina (10)
• Texas Tech (13)
• Auburn (9)
• Virginia Tech (12)
• WISCONSIN (14)
• NEBRASKA (15)
• OHIO STATE (11)
• Florida State (16)
• Buffalo (17)
• Oklahoma (19)
• Mississippi State (24)
• Cincinnati (18)
• INDIANA (21)
• Houston (23)
• Louisville (25)
• TCU (24)
• NC State (25)

• 28. Maryland (26)
• 29. Iowa (37)
• 33. Purdue (20)
• 48. Northwestern (45)
• 56. Minnesota (57)
• 65. Penn State (48)
• 97. Rutgers (86)
• 106. Illinois (111)