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Topic: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1260 on: January 31, 2019, 11:30:54 AM »
In Lunardi's current Bracketology he has 10 B1G teams in the tournament.  Question for the group, is that plausible?  

My answer is that I don't think so.  Lunardi's projection, as I understand it, is basically a "if the season ended today" thin but the season doesn't end today.  There is a BTT at the end.  The thing that I think makes it VERY unlikely for the B1G to get 10 teams in the tournament is that 7/10 and 8/9 in the final standings play each other and I think the losers of those games are usually going to be on the outside looking in.  

Since we expanded to 14 teams this is how the #7 through #10 teams have finished (last year then the year before, etc):
  • #7:  9-9, 10-8, 11-7, 9-9
  • #8:  8-10, 10-8, 10-8, 9-9
  • #9:  7-11, 8-10, 8-10, 8-10
  • #10:  6-12, 7-11, 7-11, 6-12

The only years that I think there was much of a chance were 16/17 and 15-16 when the #7 and #8 seeds were far enough above .500 to be likely tournament teams even with an opening loss in the BTT.  Then it theoretically could have happened if the #9 and #10 seeds had won their Thursday games.  Still, the #9 and #10 seeds those years were two and four games below .500 in the league so they would probably have needed big upsets on Friday (over #1 and #2) in addition to beating 7/8 on Thursday.  It seems to me, as a practical matter, that the league is almost capped at eight teams because it will always be difficult for the 7/10 and 8/9 losers to get in.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1261 on: January 31, 2019, 11:51:32 AM »
As I peek at this Rutgers/Indiana tilt I can't help but pose this here.


Back in 1990, and maybe a little later, IU was talked about in the same breath as Kansas, Kentucky, UNC, Dook and UCLA*. A blueblood program, with nary a doubt.


Fast-forward to today, and I wonder if IU, (* and UCLA), can ever regain that status. They have run through coaches left and right. They have fans that have expectations to be like they once were. Will they ever be like that? Has it been too long?


I mean, the kids looking for those blue blood offers today don't have any memory of IU being elite. None. 30 years. So?
What always gets me is that Keady had a winning record against Knight. Painter has a winning record vs IU during his tenure. Beyond Knight, their tournament resume is no better than ours except for 2002, which was Mike Davis doing it with Knight's players. 

Yet IU still consistently out-recruits Purdue, despite doing equal or less with the talent they get. And as you say, their recruits weren't alive for the 1988 title and they've now reached a point where no recruits will have been able to remember being alive during the 2002 Final Four. 

Their history for the last 20 years has been shuffling coach after coach chasing old glory, and yet they still are seen as the automatic favorite for basically any recruit in the state. 

Frustrating as a Purdue fan. 

  • -2 Indiana.  The Hoosiers have an upset home loss to Nebraska and an upset road loss to Rutgers.  I'm not sure how we should treat that because my sense is that Nebraska was a much better team a couple of weeks ago when they won in Bloomington.  Also, Rutgers is one of the +2 teams (see below) so it is possible that they should move up . . .

I don't know that I'd move them down just yet, because the team has plenty of talent. They're not losing because of a lack of talent. This team has the players to turn this around.

But I think Hoosier fans should be a little concerned that the players have largely tossed in the towel on this season. 

Anyways, I watch IU, because OSU and Gene Smith caught a lot of flak for not getting Archie Miller.  It's not as if there is a wide berth between the two teams this season, and both teams are recruiting well.  But Indiana might take a bit longer to get there - if Langford goes pro they lose their two top scorers and the rest of the team has looked a little lost at times.  So I hope they don't make a rash decision if they have another average season next year.  That's the fool's gold of basketball recruiting - getting a guy who will leave after one season doesn't help the program long term, and an average program needs long term help.
Delusional IU fans are already starting the Fire Archie train. Not sure they'll wait until next year for their rash decision lol...
But honestly, there's no explanation for this. This is not some ground-up rebuild like Brohm had with Purdue football. IU has a roster full of 5* and high 4* players. The pieces have to be there. Archie just can't seem to put them together. 
The only thought is that to some extent Archie hasn't gotten "his" guys, and perhaps the style of ball he wants to play is hard to accomplish with Crean's guys. But if he's as good a coach as everyone said he was when he was hired, he should be able to work through that. 
I do find this funny. Apparently this morning his Wikipedia page was edited to say "Though he was very successful at Dayton, Miller is regarded as one of the worst basketball coaches in Indiana's storied history." (And no, I didn't edit it lol.)

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1262 on: January 31, 2019, 01:30:44 PM »
The conference isn't getting 10 bids. No way. UNL and IU are in free-fall mode right now, and it's not looking good for either, moving forward.


UNL will have a tough time in Champaign this weekend, and then they have UMD at home and then PU on the road. IU goes to MSU, then has Iowa and OSU at home. I see a combined 0-6 for these two squads.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1263 on: January 31, 2019, 01:43:15 PM »
It's weird Indiana is playing sloppy, but they are playing hard.  They had multiple possessions late where they got multiple offensive rebounds, just to kick it back out for another missed 3.

mcwterps1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1264 on: January 31, 2019, 02:08:15 PM »
UMD / Wisconsin game SHOULD be just a good fun game.

Not a single Maryland fan believes Turgeon can beat a ranked team on the road. 

I know, it's been done before, but he seems to sleep walk through road games. Like he's got a headache or something.

He schedules weak, wants to win home games, complain about youth, and sneak in to the tournament if lucky. 

I would seriously be surprised if the Terps pulled it off.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1265 on: January 31, 2019, 02:23:29 PM »
It's weird Indiana is playing sloppy, but they are playing hard.  They had multiple possessions late where they got multiple offensive rebounds, just to kick it back out for another missed 3.
I'll admit I haven't seen a single IU game. Even the IU@Purdue game I was listening on the radio because I was on a road trip at the time. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1266 on: January 31, 2019, 04:11:11 PM »
The conference isn't getting 10 bids. No way. UNL and IU are in free-fall mode right now, and it's not looking good for either, moving forward.

UNL will have a tough time in Champaign this weekend, and then they have UMD at home and then PU on the road. IU goes to MSU, then has Iowa and OSU at home. I see a combined 0-6 for these two squads.
I meant it more as a general, theoretical question.  Could it happen?  
That said, I agree, not this year.  
The Hoosiers:
Indiana has lost seven straight and barring a miracle in East Lansing on Saturday it is about to be eight.  What I am really interested in seeing is how they respond in the two games after MSU.  After the road trip to play the Spartans the Hoosiers get two home games that could go either way, Iowa and Ohio State.  Assuming that they lose to MSU, the Hoosiers will drop to 3-8 in conference.  If they win the Iowa and Ohio State games they'll be 5-8 and have a shot at getting into the tourney with a decent finish.  If they lose them both you can stick a fork in them because at 3-10 they'd be cooked.  
The Cornhuskers:
Nebraska's losing streak isn't as long as Indiana's, only four games rather than seven but it still seems as bad or worse because they've lost easier games.  I agree on their prognosis because they have just looked awful lately.  If they drop these next three (@IL, vUMD, @PU) then I think they are toast as well.  

FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1267 on: January 31, 2019, 04:26:27 PM »
the day Copeland Jr. went down they were toast
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1268 on: January 31, 2019, 09:08:32 PM »
Surprised to see there is a ballgame going on in Happy Valley!

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1269 on: January 31, 2019, 09:19:42 PM »
Freakin' OT.

RestingB!tchFace

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1270 on: January 31, 2019, 09:24:59 PM »
This is another reason why I cannot take NET rankings seriously.  Lunardi is following the company line and using the efficiency rankings over actual resumes.  But most of us can see that out of the Big Ten teams....UNL and IU are in the most trouble.  Not according to NET and Lunardi.  MN is the last team in out of the B10 teams?  That's ridiculous.

RestingB!tchFace

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1271 on: January 31, 2019, 09:32:13 PM »
And what's with these bad language settings?  I'm scouring through my posts looking for anything that could possibly be throwing off the trigger.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1272 on: January 31, 2019, 09:36:15 PM »
I expected Purdue to win a blowout. I only turned it on when I saw it was close. I only saw OT which Purdue dominated. What happened in regulation, did Purdue sleepwalk?

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1273 on: January 31, 2019, 09:41:32 PM »
I expected Purdue to win a blowout. I only turned it on when I saw it was close. I only saw OT which Purdue dominated. What happened in regulation, did Purdue sleepwalk?
Purdue mostly dominated statistically, with two exceptions:
  • Offensive rebounds.
  • Fouls / free throws.

The final metrics on fouls and free throws were a bit askew due to OT, where they continually fouled Nojel and he shot well. I remember once late in the second half where the foul differential was 21-12 and the Nittany Lions had shot nearly 20 more FTs than Purdue. Even with PSU intentionally fouling at the end, the foul differential was still 27-20 and the FT differential was 21-41 (attempts). 

So, for whatever reason, PSU got a lot more trips to the charity stripe than Purdue.

 

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