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Topic: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

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bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1274 on: January 31, 2019, 09:41:57 PM »
This is another reason why I cannot take NET rankings seriously.  Lunardi is following the company line and using the efficiency rankings over actual resumes.  But most of us can see that out of the Big Ten teams....UNL and IU are in the most trouble.  Not according to NET and Lunardi.  MN is the last team in out of the B10 teams?  That's ridiculous.
Because I’m sill curious by what measure do you feel the old way rewarded resume in a manner the new one does not? 
One’s RPI isn’t much of a measure of resume. It’s actually kinda terrible for that. 

RestingB!tchFace

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1275 on: January 31, 2019, 10:11:50 PM »
Because I’m sill curious by what measure do you feel the old way rewarded resume in a manner the new one does not?
One’s RPI isn’t much of a measure of resume. It’s actually kinda terrible for that.
I'd say that RPI....using team winning percentage, opponent strength, and opponent SOS is far better than the NET efficiency tool which weighs each possession equally regardless of opponent, game score, time of game, etc....
It awards teams for keeping starters in longer and scoring more.  Of course you want to win....but winning by double digits is some sort of bonus from what I've read.  It's flawed as all hell.  And again....when you have teams like Nebraska and Indiana ahead of Minnesota in the rankings....something is wrong with that ranking system.  Especially if it is going to determine which teams make the NCAA field and what they are seeded. 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1276 on: January 31, 2019, 11:37:30 PM »
The tiers are not rankings...
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1277 on: January 31, 2019, 11:45:56 PM »
I doubt you'll agree but I am skeptical you'd be complaining about NET, Kenpom, or this board's tiers if they were more highly regarding Minnesota. It is common to cherry pick methods that serve our interests. But it's best not to do it as if those argument of ours are in objective pursuit and what is good/just/true. No need to post an answer; just self-reflect on that. (This is a healthy lifelong doublecheck and goes for all of us, of course.)

Meanwhile, RPI had significant problems that are, albeit not fully erased, at least diminished with NET. One of the most famous examples regarded gaming the rankings by never/rarely scheduling anyone in the lower 1/3 of RPI.

Because RPI so inflexibly dealt with opponent and opp-opp win%, if two teams were theoretically identical and played identically well against identical top halves of the schedule but whereas Team A played 3 teams ranked ~150 whereas Team B played that many ranked ~300, despite their identical records and theoretically identical strengths, they could be displaced by 15-20+ spots in ranking position. Which was dumb. And drove a lot of goofy seeding over the years.

It's also why, moreso in the first years than this one, Rutgers was such an RPI dead weight for the Big Ten.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1278 on: February 01, 2019, 12:33:55 AM »
Watching the UCI@UCSB game. Two teams battling for 1st place in the Big West (I think). The tiny "Thunderdome" is empty. Seriously about 25% full.

Wife is a UCSB alum, and we're going to the UCSB@UCI game in 2 1/2 weeks. I'm going to try to be the loudest UCSB fan in the arena, and I'm not even a "real" fan...

Can't complain about courtside For $26/ticket though  right? :)

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1279 on: February 01, 2019, 09:45:45 AM »
Purdue mostly dominated statistically, with two exceptions:
  • Offensive rebounds.
  • Fouls / free throws.

The final metrics on fouls and free throws were a bit askew due to OT, where they continually fouled Nojel and he shot well. I remember once late in the second half where the foul differential was 21-12 and the Nittany Lions had shot nearly 20 more FTs than Purdue. Even with PSU intentionally fouling at the end, the foul differential was still 27-20 and the FT differential was 21-41 (attempts).

So, for whatever reason, PSU got a lot more trips to the charity stripe than Purdue.
Ok, thanks.  I was curious because OT looked exactly like what I expected the game to look like but I couldn't figure out how it got to OT.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1280 on: February 01, 2019, 10:02:59 AM »
FWIW:
We are now exactly half way through the B1G BB season.  Maryland has played 11 of their 20 games while Ohio State has only played nine of their 20.  The other 12 teams have each played 10.  

Thus, we have played 70 games and 11 have been "upsets" (meaning that the result was not what our adjusted tiers would project).  That works out to one upset every 6.4 games.  

This weekend (Friday-Sunday):
  • Michigan at Iowa:  We project a Michigan win on the road.  
  • Maryland at Wisconsin:  We project a Wisconsin win at home.  
  • Indiana at Michigan State:  We project a Michigan State win at home.  
  • Nebraska at Illinois:  We project an Illinois win at home.  
  • Rutgers at Ohio State:  We project an Ohio State win at home.  
  • Minnesota at Purdue:  We project a Purdue win at home.  

We project that the home team will win five of the six games.  In the case of MSU, tOSU, and PU that is BOTH because we think that the home team is better AND because they are at home.  In the cases of UW and IL we think the (slightly) inferior team will win because they are at home.  In the case of Michigan, we think that they are better than Iowa by enough of a margin to overcome Iowa's home court advantage and win on the road.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1281 on: February 01, 2019, 11:48:32 AM »
Ok, thanks.  I was curious because OT looked exactly like what I expected the game to look like but I couldn't figure out how it got to OT.  
FWIW, I think it was mentioned during the broadcast that two of the expected officials called in sick, so they had to find substitutes. 
Which, given the weather, might have been random high school refs that were off that night...

JerseyTerrapin

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1282 on: February 01, 2019, 12:10:38 PM »

It awards teams for keeping starters in longer and scoring more.  Of course you want to win....but winning by double digits is some sort of bonus from what I've read.  It's flawed as all hell.  
I don't claim to know the methodology of the various ranking schemes, but I generally tend to agree with this part.
Speaking anecdotally and as a homer, Maryland had a 30ish point lead against NU and a 37 point lead against Rutgers before pulling starters.  They were playing efficiently :).  I think the final margins were 18 and 15 in those games.  If the effect of playing "less efficiently" with second-stringers pulled the ratings down, I agree that's silly.

SFBadger96

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1283 on: February 01, 2019, 12:17:25 PM »
Watching the UCI@UCSB game. Two teams battling for 1st place in the Big West (I think). The tiny "Thunderdome" is empty. Seriously about 25% full.

Wife is a UCSB alum, and we're going to the UCSB@UCI game in 2 1/2 weeks. I'm going to try to be the loudest UCSB fan in the arena, and I'm not even a "real" fan...

Can't complain about courtside For $26/ticket though  right? :)
My sister and two close cousins were Gauchos. Go team!

FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1284 on: February 01, 2019, 12:20:21 PM »
My cousins from Lompoc were Gauchos
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1285 on: February 01, 2019, 12:24:45 PM »
I don't claim to know the methodology of the various ranking schemes, but I generally tend to agree with this part.
Speaking anecdotally and as a homer, Maryland had a 30ish point lead against NU and a 37 point lead against Rutgers before pulling starters.  They were playing efficiently :).  I think the final margins were 18 and 15 in those games.  If the effect of playing "less efficiently" with second-stringers pulled the ratings down, I agree that's silly.
For NET, there’s a MOV factor up to 10. So win by 18, win by 48 is all the same. 
The downside of efficiency is that it takes into account end of game production, but honestly that mostly comes out in the wash. It would matter if you rewarded a team for its own NET or KenPom. 
Here’s the thing, you shouldn’t do that. You also shouldn’t reward a team for its own RPI. You should use NET or KenPom as a means for building resumes by looking at who you beat/lost to. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1286 on: February 01, 2019, 12:29:26 PM »
I'd say that RPI....using team winning percentage, opponent strength, and opponent SOS is far better than the NET efficiency tool which weighs each possession equally regardless of opponent, game score, time of game, etc....
It awards teams for keeping starters in longer and scoring more.  Of course you want to win....but winning by double digits is some sort of bonus from what I've read.  It's flawed as all hell.  And again....when you have teams like Nebraska and Indiana ahead of Minnesota in the rankings....something is wrong with that ranking system.  Especially if it is going to determine which teams make the NCAA field and what they are seeded.
You point out efficiency isn’t nuanced, but would prefer using less nuanced numbers? Odd.
If you’d argue beating Nebraska Omaha is drastically different than beating Mount St Mary’s, RPI would tell you that difference matters a lot. That seems more problematic than the end of blowout shebengnas. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1287 on: February 01, 2019, 12:30:38 PM »
Watching the UCI@UCSB game. Two teams battling for 1st place in the Big West (I think). The tiny "Thunderdome" is empty. Seriously about 25% full.

Wife is a UCSB alum, and we're going to the UCSB@UCI game in 2 1/2 weeks. I'm going to try to be the loudest UCSB fan in the arena, and I'm not even a "real" fan...

Can't complain about courtside For $26/ticket though  right? :)
When I went to school, a high school buddy went there. 
That Thanksgiving we joked I got the party school with sports, he got one with a beach (and more blondes)

 

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