2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[betarhoalphadelta]

I think NET is meant to play pretty heavily into it, largely because NET is meant to distill a lot of those other things into its ranking.

Looking at Houston's team sheet, though, I do think Houston is unlikely to be a 1... 

But when you look at the teams ahead of MSU/UM in NET, you see teams with pretty solid resumes as well. Gonzaga maybe doesn't have the SOS, but they have the wins and their only losses are to Tenn/UNC. The ACC teams have SOS and good road records. The SEC teams have less SOS but good road records as well. And neither the ACC team nor Tennessee has the same "bad" losses that MSU has with two losses to Indiana (one quad-1 and one quad-2) and the quad-2 loss to Illinois. Michigan has only quad 1 losses, but they're only 8-4 in quad 1 games which doesn't really differentiate them from the schools above them.

Kentucky is the weakest of the group above with quad-1 loss to Alabama and a quad-2 loss to Seton Hall. But with 9 quad-1 wins, they're right between UM (8) and MSU (10), not a big differentiator.

But I think right now you could easily see Gonzaga, two ACC teams, and whoever comes out better in the conference tourney between Tennessee and Kentucky getting the 1 seeds. I think you'd probably have to see two ACC teams and one SEC team slip HARD to finish the season for MSU/UM to leapfrog them.

(Adding a line because I got logged out and now it thinks I already posted this.)

[medinabuckeye1]

Depends what wins or losses occur to the teams currently ahead of them IMHO. Right now MSU and Michigan are 8 & 9 in NET, respectively.

• Gonzaga would have to slip a lot to drop below a 1.
• There are 3 ACC teams ahead of them (Duke/UVA/UNC). At least one, possibly two, of those teams is getting a 1 seed.
• Tennessee OR Kentucky (probably whichever wins their conference tourney) is most likely assured of a 1.
• Houston would have to hold serve and win out, but they're still 2 spots ahead of MSU, so I could see them with a strong shot at a 1 if they win out.

I don't see either Michigan or MSU winning out and being guaranteed a 1. I think it requires a little bit of chaos ahead of them.

If either Michigan of Michigan State win out, they would have a strong argument, but I agree with this, they would probably still need help.  That said, I'm assuming that winning out would require beating the other one once (in East Lansing on Saturday), beating a decent team on Friday in the BTT, beating the other one AGAIN on Saturday in the BTT, then beating Purdue in the B1GCG.  The two games against each other, the Purdue game, and the Friday BTT game would all be quality wins.  Of course, somebody in the ACC and somebody in the SEC will probably do just about the same thing so . . .

[betarhoalphadelta]

@medinabuckeye1 Any chance you could look at our tier projections from the beginning of the season, perhaps again midway through the season, and at the end of the season, to see how much things changed?

I know you said you don't normally track changes through the year, but given that you've posted in this thread with updates for basically preseason [or perhaps after the 2 December games], I recall you posting around the midpoint (all teams between 9 and 11 games played), and now we're at the end...

I think it would be a useful thing to track how much our projections from start of the season to the end are accurate. 

[ELA]

Unless all 5 starters play all 40 minutes, at a high level, we can't beat anyone

[ELA]

After a full year of BS hook and holds, I guess we found one legit one finally.

[847badgerfan]

The Voice is on. No hoops for me. Heh.

[ELA]

Everyone in the arena except Carsen Edwards knew Ryan Cline should be getting the ball late.

[ELA]

If Minnesota gags this one up, Ricky shouldn't be allowed to leave the arena with a job

[TyphonInc]

Rutgers (they get their '"s" back) is up 20 on Iowa. Wowzers. 7 minutes left.

Well Iowa puts my hypothesis (any team Rutgers beats will not make NCAA Tourney) into serious jeopardy.

[MichiFan87]

Kind of interesting that Purdue finally lost a close game to Minnesota of all teams, which still almost blew it in the end. Thank you Gophers.

Looking forward to Saturday.....

[medinabuckeye1]

Purdue is now eliminated from contention for the #1 seed in the BTT. This is because Purdue loses all ties.

The M/MSU winner will be the #1 seed.

If Purdue wins at Northwestern they will tie the M/MSU winner for 1/2, lose that tie, and get the #2 seed.

If Purdue loses at Northwestern they will tie the M/MSU loser for 2/3, lose that tie, and get the #3 seed.

[medinabuckeye1]

@medinabuckeye1 Any chance you could look at our tier projections from the beginning of the season, perhaps again midway through the season, and at the end of the season, to see how much things changed?

I know you said you don't normally track changes through the year, but given that you've posted in this thread with updates for basically preseason [or perhaps after the 2 December games], I recall you posting around the midpoint (all teams between 9 and 11 games played), and now we're at the end...

I think it would be a useful thing to track how much our projections from start of the season to the end are accurate.

I'll try to put something together after the last regular season games. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue is now eliminated from contention for the #1 seed in the BTT. This is because Purdue loses all ties.

The M/MSU winner will be the #1 seed.

If Purdue wins at Northwestern they will tie the M/MSU winner for 1/2, lose that tie, and get the #2 seed.

If Purdue loses at Northwestern they will tie the M/MSU loser for 2/3, lose that tie, and get the #3 seed.

And Purdue just lost any dreams of a 2 seed in the tourney. 

[medinabuckeye1]

And Purdue just lost any dreams of a 2 seed in the tourney.

If Purdue won out including wins over MSU on Saturday and Michigan on Sunday then it might be possible for Purdue to replace MSU as a 2 seed.