2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[Anonymous Coward]

Coaxing quality minutes out of Castleton is a significant development for Michigan. 

[847badgerfan]

hopefully, you are someplace warmer, posting from a damn cell phone or an internet cafe

3 days. LONG days. On to FL.

[MichiFan87]

Great game today. I was impressed by the atmosphere (though the piped music was a little unnecessarily obnoxious at times). Apparently, the section behind the visitor's bench is the only non-student section lowest-level area other than the endline opposing the main section on the other side that goes up to the top, so I had a great view of the game, except I couldn't see the near sidelines.

I was actually rather frustrated by Maryland's offensive rebounding, which was slightly better than Michigan's (39% to 33% OR%). Turnovers and fouls proved to be the difference (yes, there were some bad calls but they went both ways), after Michigan caught up in shooting in the second half.

Once again, today's game was a very encouraging sign for next year with Matthews being out again (but hopefully back for the Sparty rematch next weekend), especially with Castleton holding his own behind Teske. DeJulius was okay, though he played better when replacing Simpson in the second half as opposed to the 2-PG lineup in the first half. Brooks continues to be furstrating, so hopefully he won't play once Matthews is back, but Michigan will have to find a new backup for the 2/3/4 spot next year, be it Johns, Nunez, or one of the incoming freshmen.

Hopefully Minnesota and/or Northwestern can upset Purdue to make the Sparty rematch for at least a share of the Big Ten title, but I'm certainly not expecting that to be the case. It's been a great season, regardless, though, and I think they can potentially win the BTT again (especially with just 3 games to play) and make another NCAA tournament run....

[medinabuckeye1]

There were six B1G games this weekend and half of them resulted in upsets so the projections have changed.  For review, here are the tiers:

• PU+1, MSU-1, M-2
• UMD-2, UW-3
• Iowa-2
• tOSU+2, MN+2, IL+1
• RU+2, IU+2, UNL, NU-2
• PSU+2

The updated projections heading into the final week are (tiebreakers below):

• 17-3/24-7 Purdue
• 16-4/25-6 Michigan State
• 15-5/26-5 Michigan
• 14-6/22-9 Wisconsin
• 13-7/22-9 Maryland
• 11-9/22-9 Iowa
• 9-11/13-18 Illinois
• 8-12/18-13 Ohio State
• 8-12/15-15 Rutgers
• 8-12/18-13 Minnesota 
• 7-13/16-15 Indiana
• 5-15/12-19 Penn State
• 5-15/15-16 Nebraska
• 4-16/13-18 Northwestern

The 8-12 tiebreaker:
The Buckeyes, Scarlet Knights, and Gophers are all projected to finish 8-12.  The first tiebreaker is H2H.  Rutgers split with both so they are 2-2 but the Buckeyes and Gophers only played once with Ohio State winning.  Thus, tOSU (2-1) is first, RU (2-2) is second, and MN (1-2) loses.  

The 5-12 tiebreaker:
The Nittany Lions and Cornhuskers are projected to finish 5-15.  The first tiebreaker is H2H but the two teams split their series so we move to the next tiebreaker which is record against the best team(s) in the conference, then the next, etc.  Both teams are project to finish 0-season against #1 PU and #2 MSU but the Nittany Lions did defeat both #3 M and #4 UMD so they win the tie based on their superior record against Michigan.  

Those seeds would result in the following BTT match-ups at the United Center in Chicago, IL:
Wednesday, March 13:

• #11 Indiana vs #14 Northwestern, 9pm on BTN
• #12 Penn State vs #13 Nebraska, 6:30pm on BTN

Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):

• #5 Maryland vs PSU/UNL, 3pm on BTN
• #6 Iowa vs IU/NU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #7 Illinois vs #10 Minnesota, 7pm on BTN
• #8 Ohio State vs #9 Rutgers, 12:30pm on BTN

Friday, March 15:

• #1 Purdue vs tOSU/RU, 12:30pm on BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs IL/MN, 7pm on BTN
• #3 Michigan vs IA/IU/NU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #4 Wisconsin vs UMD/PSU/UNL, 3pm on BTN

Saturday, March 16:

• PU/tOSU/RU vs UW/UMD/PSU/UNL, 1pm on CBS
• MSU/IL/MN vs M/IA/IU/NU, 3:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 17:

• PU/tOSU/RU/UW/UMD/PSU/UNL vs MSU/IL/MN/M/IA/IU/NU, 3:30pm on CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Bubble Watch:
Locks 5:  PU, M, MSU, UW, UMD

Should be in 1:
Iowa:  The Hawkeyes probably could have moved up to lock status with a win in either of their last two games (@tOSU, vRU) but they have now lost two straight and three out of four and remain here.  

Bubble 3:
Ohio State 8-10/18-11:  After the Buckeyes blowout loss in Mackey Arena, Lunardi dropped them to a #10 seed and the Buckeyes still have work to do.  The bad news is that we project them to lose their last two games but the good news is that both (@NU, vUW) are close to coin-flips so it isn't unreasonable for Buckeye fans to hope for 9-11/19-12 or even 10-10/20-11.  However, AFAIK the Kaleb Wesson suspension is still "indefinite" and the Buckeyes looked terrible against Purdue without him.  On the other hand, maybe that was just Purdue looking that good as opposed to Ohio State looking that bad.  

Minnesota 8-10/18-11:  The Gophers won at Northwestern last week and, like the Buckeyes, we project them to lose out.  The problem for Minnesota is that their remaining games are tougher than Ohio State's.  The Gophers face Purdue at home this week and travel to College Park to face the Terps this weekend.  Unless they can pull at least one upset they are going to get to Chicago needing to win at least one game.  Lunardi currently has them as a #11 seed and one of the "last four byes".  

Indiana 6-12/15/14:  The Hoosiers are barely over .500 overall and can do no better than 8-12 in conference.  Most teams in that situation would not be listed on the bubble but Indiana isn't most teams.  Their recent win over Michigan State completed a season sweep of the Spartans and gave the Hoosiers their sixth quad-1 win.  It also put them back into the Worldwide leader's bubble discussion.  They finish with games at Illinois and vs Rutgers and if they win those . . .

Need a miraculous finish 2:
7-11/14-14 Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights have now won two straight and three of their last five to stay, at least theoretically, alive.  If they won out to the B1GCG they would finish 12-12/19-15 and I think that might get them an at-large bid.  

5-13/15-14 Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers have now lost three straight and 10-of-12 but if they magically turn things around and win out to the B1GCG I think they might get an at-large bid at 10-14/20-15.  

Need to win BTT 3:
Illinois, Penn State, Northwestern.  

[ELA]

Indiana 6-12/15/14:  The Hoosiers are barely over .500 overall and can do no better than 8-12 in conference.  Most teams in that situation would not be listed on the bubble but Indiana isn't most teams.  Their recent win over Michigan State completed a season sweep of the Spartans and gave the Hoosiers their sixth quad-1 win.  It also put them back into the Worldwide leader's bubble discussion.  They finish with games at Illinois and vs Rutgers and if they win those . . .

Lunardi moved them up to the #5 team out.  Granted the Marquette and Louisville wins took a bit of a ding this weekend.  They'll probably get swept by Illinois and Rutgers this week though.

[ELA]

Early on I said Friday in the BTT could be epic with how good the top 8 were.  OSU, Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska are not close to what we thought they were in early January, and Iowa sort of seems meh.  Flip side, suddenly Illinois, Rutgers and Penn State all look better than we thought they were at the time.  Wisconsin-Maryland, if it plays out in the 4-5 game, could be big, but the other 3 Friday games might just be teams playing spoilers.

But now Thursday looks like it could be better than it's ever been, particularly is Nebraska and Northwestern go home Wednesday.

[medinabuckeye1]

A little more detail on the B1G's three bubble teams:

Ohio State 8-10/18-11:  Prior to the blowout loss to Purdue the Buckeyes were a projected #9 seed (Lunardi) and the Worldwide leader's bubble watch seemed to suggest that they might already be a lock with their comment that Ohio State's worst case scenario of 18-13 overall and 8-12 in conference "should get the job done".  Now they are down to a #10 seed.  

Frankly, I never thought that Ohio State was a lock in part because their worst case isn't actually 8-12/18-13 but 8-13/18-14 with a BTT loss.  I just don't think that will get it done.  As mentioned above, we project the Buckeyes to lose both of their remaining scheduled games but they are both close calls (@NU, vUW).  Those are even bigger question marks due to the indefinite Kaleb Wesson suspension.  The Buckeyes could lose both, lose to NU without him then beat UW with him, beat NU and lose to UW, or beat NU (probably without Wesson), then beat Wisconsin (with or without).  Who knows.  ESPN says that Ohio State has a 53.7% chance to beat Northwestern and a 48.2% chance to beat Wisconsin.  That suggests that the Buckeyes are very likely to go 1-1.  

As far as BTT seed, the Buckeyes are projected to finish in a three-way tie with MN and RU for 8th/9th/10th and win that tie to get the #8 seed.  If they win one of their last two the Buckeyes would move into a projected tie with IL for 7th/8th and lose that tie so no change in seed.  However, if the Buckeyes won both or if Illinois lost one of their projected wins (vIU, @PSU) and Ohio State won one then the Buckeyes would likely finish alone in seventh place.  

I've been saying since mid January that I thought the Buckeyes were a borderline tournament team and at this point that is almost guaranteed.  Their worst-case-scenario is probably barely out and their best-case scenario is not much better than "barely in".  

Minnesota 8-10/18-11:  The Gophers have been just behind the Buckeyes, bouncing between barely in and barely out in projected brackets for a while and that hasn't changed.  Their last two games (vPU, @UMD) are great opportunities in that winning would be REALLY good but they are landmines because winning is REALLY unlikely.  IMHO, if Minnesota loses both of those remaining games they are going to need to win some games in Chicago.  This would be particularly problematic for the B1G if the Gophers and Buckeyes both end up in the same boat and playing each other in their opening game of the BTT because the loser would likely be out.  

As far as BTT seed, we currently project them to finish in the three-way tie with Ohio State and Rutgers.  That is REALLY up in the air though because the other two members of that tie and Illinois (projected to finish one game ahead) each have two remaining games that could plausibly go either way.  

Indiana 6-12/15-14:  The Hoosiers are just an odd team.  Upthread, @ELA said that they would probably get swept this week/weekend by Illinois and Rutgers.  Judging by Indiana's performance this season that sounds about right:  Beat two good teams (UW, MSU) then lose to two bad teams (IL, RU).  Indiana has great wins (MSU2x, Louisville, Marquette, Wisconsin but they also have a slew of questionable-to-bad losses.  We project them to split their two remaining games with a loss in Champaign and a home win over Rutgers.  In that case they would head to the BTT at 7-13/16-15 with a lot of work to do.  That said, Indiana could certainly win both and head to Chicago at 8-12/17-14.  That record, with their collection of high-end wins would put them firmly in the Bubble discussion.  

Indiana's BTT seed may be the biggest riddle of all.  The Hoosiers' next two opponents (IL, RU) are the two teams that are currently one game ahead of them in the standings.  Thus, by winning out the Hoosiers guarantee themselves of no worse than a tie with the Illini and Scarlet Knights. Additionally, Minnesota and Ohio State are both two games ahead of the Hoosiers and projected to lose out so we could end up with a five-way tie for 8th/9th/10th/11th/12th.  That would be interesting but it is also, at least for now, highly unlikely.  Here are IU's possibly relevant H2H tiebreaking records:

• 0-1 v tOSU 
• 0-1 v MN
• 0-1 v RU with one more to play
• 1-0 v IL with one more to play
• 0-1 v UNL
• 1-0 v PSU

There is a decent chance that all three bubble teams will get to Chicago in need of at least one more win so the best thing for the conference as a whole would be if they managed to avoid each other.  That is somewhat unlikely because they are all likely to fall in the 7/8/9/10 range but it isn't impossible.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Early on I said Friday in the BTT could be epic with how good the top 8 were.  OSU, Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska are not close to what we thought they were in early January, and Iowa sort of seems meh.  Flip side, suddenly Illinois, Rutgers and Penn State all look better than we thought they were at the time.  Wisconsin-Maryland, if it plays out in the 4-5 game, could be big, but the other 3 Friday games might just be teams playing spoilers.

But now Thursday looks like it could be better than it's ever been, particularly is Nebraska and Northwestern go home Wednesday.

I agree.  It is because the bottom of the conference is, as a relative matter, very good.  I don't ever remember a time when the bottom of the conference (or any large conference for that matter) was this good.  Usually, with 14 or even 11 teams, at least one is just dreadful but this year, even our worst team, Northwestern, isn't THAT bad.  

[medinabuckeye1]

This week's B1G games:

Michigan and Maryland have already played 19 B1G games and they are off this week (Tue-Thur).  The other 12 B1G teams will each play their 19th league game this week (Tue-Thur).  Those six games are:

• Purdue at Minnesota:  The Gophers could REALLY use a win here.  Purdue has already locked up a bid and this game would clinch at least a share of the B1G title along with helping PU's case for a higher seed in the NCAA.  
• Nebraska at Michigan State:  I really can't think of anything interesting to say about this game.  I think that being the team to play MSU after a big upset loss is just bad luck for the Cornhuskers.  
• Iowa at Wisconsin:  For the third time in as many games the Hawkeyes have an opportunity to lock up a bid.  If they couldn't do it in Columbus or at home against Rutgers then they likely can't do it in Madison either but the way things have been going lately, who knows.  
• Indiana at Illinois:  The Hoosiers are back in the bubble discussion (fifth team out per Lunardi) but they'll fall right back out again if they can't back up their big wins with wins in games that they should win.  
• Ohio State at Northwestern:  The Buckeyes looked terrible in West Lafayette without Kaleb Wesson but this should be a substantially easier environment.  
• Penn State at Rutgers:  The Nittany Lions have won five of their last eight with all of the losses in that stretch being reasonably close road losses to probable (tOSU) or definite (UW and PU) tournament teams.  Meanwhile, Rutgers comes into this contest having won two straight and those were not easy games.  They beat a possible tournament team at home (MN) and a likely tournament team on the road (IA).  

At this point in the season I feel that the games involving bubble teams are the most important games so Purdue at Minnesota (Tues), Ohio State at Northwestern (Wed), and Indiana at Illinois (Thur) are probably the most important viewing.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

So I think right now, you have Lunardi with Michigan and MSU as 2 seeds, with Purdue as a 3. 

I think Purdue's ceiling is a 2, and absolute worst case (losing @MN, @NU, and 1st BTT game) drops them no lower than a 5, possibly even no lower than a 4. The path to a 2 is clear: win 5 games in a row to take the sole B1G regular championship crown and win the BTT. That would be 19-2 since Jan 1, and with 3 additional losses between Michigan and MSU (one loss coming to the loser next Saturday, one additional loss each in the BTT). Without winning out, there are still some paths to a 2 seed, but they rely on some teams ahead of them losing.

I think Michigan's ceiling is probably as the top 2 seed (too many losses would have to happen above them to get a 1), and their floor as a 3. Even a road loss to MSU and losing their Friday BTT game shouldn't drop them below the 3 line. Especially if that Friday BTT game is against an opponent like a solid Iowa squad or a surging/dangerous Illini team.

For MSU, it's more murky. I think their ceiling remains a 2, as they're possibly the weakest 2 on the board right now. But winning out includes a win over Michigan and Michigan having another loss in the BTT, which would have both teams finish with 6 losses. I could see MSU climbing to a high 2 seed. But their floor might be a 4. Losing at home to Nebraska and at home to Michigan, followed by a Friday exit from the BTT, probably drops them to a 4.

Anyone making predictions yet?

[Brutus Buckeye]

[medinabuckeye1]

@bwarbiany :
I was thinking of doing a best-case/worst-case for each school but the inherent nature of each team's best case involving winning the BTT makes it overly complicated.  

I roughly agree with your assessment of Purdue.  

For my own school, I see it this way:
Worst case:  Lose at NU (Wednesday), lose at home to UW (Sunday), lose BTT opener (next Thursday), finish 8-13/18-14, barely miss NCAA.  This *MIGHT* actually get them in but it would depend on almost zero bid-thieves and a very soft bubble.  

Better cases, I'll take them one game at a time:

• Win at NU on Wednesday:  This solidifies tOSU's at-large case but still leaves them at probably a #9/10 seed.  
• Beat Wisconsin at home on Sunday:  This locks down a bid for the Buckeyes, probably a #9 seed.  
• Win BTT opener next Thursday (likely #10 IL, RU, or IU):  This gets tOSU at least a #8 seed and might get them off of that 8/9 line.  
• Win big upset in BTT next Friday (likely #2 M/MSU winner):  This probably gets tOSU off the 8/9 line.  
• Win ANOTHER big upset in BTT next Saturday (likely #3 M/MSU loser):  This definitively gets tOSU off the 8/9 line but probably still a #7.  
• Win yet another big upset in BTT next Sunday (likely #1 PU):  I think the ceiling would be a #6 seed but #7 would probably be more likely.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Another thought on seeds in the NCAA Tournament:

First, a question:  Is UVA prohibited from playing their first weekend games in Columbia, SC?  I'm asking because Lunardi currently has the sites going this way:

• UK-Columbus; DOOK-Columbia; Gonzaga-SLC; UVA-Columbus
• UNC-Columbia; Tenn-Jacksonville; M-Des Moines; MSU-Des Moines
• TxTech-Tulsa; PU-Tulsa; Houston-Jacksonville; 3 KU-SLC
• VaTech-Hartford; LSU-Hartford; UW-San Jose; Marquette-San Jose

What I don't understand about Lunardi's bracket is why he has #1 seed UVA travelling all the way to Columbus (~400 mi by car) when Columbia, SC is closer.  

There are a few oddities this year:
First, there are always too many Western sites but this year is worse than most because the PAC is just dreadful and might be a 1-bid league.  Consequently, the Salt Lake City and San Jose sites have #1 seed Gonzaga and three far-from-home #3 and #4 seeds.  

Second, there is an unusual lack of high end teams from the NE such that the Hartford, CT site also appears likely to wind up as a dumping ground for far-from-home #3 and #4 seeds (current projection is #4 VaTech and #4 LSU.  

This matters for the B1G because if UVA gets the Columbia, SC site then UNC would probably head to Jacksonville which would open up one of the spots in Columbus probably for the B1G's top team.  That also has a trickle-down impact.  Right now Purdue is seen as the B1G's third team and they are shipped out to Tulsa.  If the B1G's #1 team was in Columbus then #2 and #3 could go to Des Moines.  For reference:
Columbus is:

• ~194 mi from M 
• ~240 mi from PU
• ~256 mi from MSU

Des Monies is:

• ~437 mi from PU
• ~537 mi from MSU
• ~558 mi from M 

Tulsa is:

• ~665 mi from Purdue
• ~882 mi from MSU
• ~903 mi from M