2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[mcwterps1]

Whistles quiet again on our offensive trips.

Fran is on to something, but this is just a page in Maryland's book.  Read it every year. 

That gym is a House of Horrors for Maryland.

[bayareabadger]

So is PSU suddenly good?  Refs screwed them out of a win over Purdue, then they beat UM, beat Illinois, now crushing Maryland.

This is kinda a weird case, and I can't tell if it's confirmation bias or something else. 
When PSU was a middling 7-6, it was 48 in KenPom, so that's not bad. Then it dropped eight conference games in a row, and after all that was still only at 71. That, to a degree, would suggest being better than a 0-10 conference record at the time.
But does that always equate to snapping back and pulling off upsets or blowouts? I don't know. Sometimes is seems to (see Wisconsin, 2012 big 12 title game). Anyway, I'm going to go back to worrying about the end of UW's schedule. Man I wanted that one last night. 

[ELA]

Listened to a breakdown that this was very intentional, and the failure to switch back wasn't a failure.  In the whole punch-counterpunch, as MSU's offense became "outdated," Izzo countered against an offense that doesn't teach post ups, doesn't run post ups, and said, "here is your mismatch, all you have to do is post up and have solid entry passes.  Basketball 101 from a decade or two decades ago.  And Michigan couldn't do it, because it's something they never do.  MSU's defense looked so good, because what they gave Michigan, was something Michigan's offense wasn't capable of doing.  Now it's Beilein's turn to counterpunch, and he's too good an offensive coach not to figure something out.

https://twitter.com/AndrewKahn/status/1100942617293082625?s=19

[847badgerfan]

Man I wanted that one last night.

If my wife was watching, instead of being out of town on business, UW would have won. The way she implores the team through the TV screen would have done it. So, let's blame her. I'll let her know tomorrow night, when she gets home, that she cost the Badgers the 4th place finish we have come to know and love.

[grillrat]

So is PSU suddenly good?  Refs screwed them out of a win over Purdue, then they beat UM, beat Illinois, now crushing Maryland.

Ok.  Let's make something perfectly clear.  The refs did not screw PSU out of a win against Purdue.  Penn State shot FORTY ONE FREE THROWS in that game (with Purdue only getting 21, 6 of which were from intentional PSU fouls).  Penn State averages about 18 FT's a game.
People always get so hung up about end of game fouls, but if the refs had called an even halfway unbiased game for the first 39 minutes and 57 seconds of that game, Purdue wins by 10 in regulation.

[ELA]

True.  Job #1 for refs is ensuring equal FTs for each team.

[grillrat]

No, the job of the refs is to call fouls consistently against both teams and the same way throughout the whole game.

If you want to "let'em play" and not call fouls, that's fine, but do it the whole game.

[ELA]

Purdue looked that night like a tired team, travelling for a midweek game to the middle of nowhere in central PA.  They we're clutching and grabbing on defense consistently.  I'm sure from hundreds of miles away Mackey was filled with boos, but Purdue was not moving their feet at all on defense that night, and the calls reflected that.

Then the refs failed to distinguish ball from arm, and instead of PSU shooting to make it a two possession game, they gave Purdue the ball with the chance to tie.

[grillrat]

They played Sunday afternoon and didn't play at Penn St. Until Thursday night.  Fatigue was not an issue.
We must have watched a different game.  Penn State got most of their free throws barreling into the paint and getting bailed out by the refs and then swallowing their whistles on the other end.
Seriously, go and rewatch it.  
And I know that you like to characterize Purdue as being a grabby defense, but that was alot more prevelant 5 years ago than it is now.  Heck, MSU gets called for more fouls per game than Purdue does.  (Feel free to look it up).

[grillrat]

Just saw on the Purdue board that Matt Haarms is the first player ever in the NCAA to have a game with 20 points, 10 rebounds, 5 blocks, 100% fg, 100% 3pt, and 100%FT.

That'll do son, that'll do.

[ELA]

And I know that you like to characterize Purdue as being a grabby defense, but that was alot more prevelant 5 years ago than it is now.  Heck, MSU gets called for more fouls per game than Purdue does.  (Feel free to look it up).

I wouldn't characterize them as that, they just were on that night.

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't keep our old tier spreadsheets so I don't have an easy way to look it up, but it feels like we have had more upsets this year than most.  I think that is simply a product of the bottom of our league being unusually strong.  Typically, with 14 teams (or even back when it was 11 or 12), at least a few are just REALLY bad.  This year I think even our worst teams are at least decent.  Maryland's loss last night to one of the worst teams in the league (by record anyway) illustrates that.  

I'll do a full update tomorrow but the short version is that with the PSU>UMD upset we now project:

• That Michigan, Maryland, and Wisconsin will all tie at 14-6 for 3rd/4th/5th place.  
• That Penn State, Nebraska, and Northwestern will all tie at 5-15 for 12th/13th/14th place.  

I'll figure out all the tiebreakers when I do the full update tomorrow.  

[medinabuckeye1]

 I'll let her know tomorrow night, when she gets home, that she cost the Badgers the 4th place finish we have come to know and love.

FWIW:
A double-bye is becoming very unlikely for the Badgers.  The tiebreakers are not kind to Wisconsin so they would lose almost any relevant potential tie.  Thus, to get a top-4 seed they almost have to finish ahead of (not tied with) 5th place.  

They can do no better than a tie with either MSU or PU and they would lose both of those ties.  

They could finish ahead of Michigan but only if Michigan lost out AND Wisconsin won out.  If the Badgers tied with the Wolverines they would most likely lose that tie (based on record against PU).  

They would lose a tie with Maryland based on record against Purdue.  

The only team that Wisconsin could win a tie with is Iowa but that probably wouldn't be a tie for 4th place so it wouldn't matter in terms of the double-bye.  Even there, it could only be a 12-8 tie that would require UW to beat Iowa but otherwise lose out and Iowa to lose to UW but otherwise win out and in that case the two of them would be no better than tied with UMD for 4th/5th/6th and Maryland would win that tie.  

Correction to my statement in the first paragraph:  Wisconsin would not lose "almost any" relevant potential tie, they would lose any relevant potential tie.  Ie, the Badgers have to finish ahead of and not tied with 5th place.  

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW:
AFAIK, MSU and PU have now clinched top-4 seeds and double-byes in the BTT.  In theory Michigan could end up ahead of them while Maryland and/or Wisconsin could end up tied with them but the Badgers basically lose all ties so it wouldn't matter, they'd still get top-4 seeds.  

The other two are between Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa with Wisconsin and Iowa being very unlikely.