2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

Not excited for this matchup tonight. MSU backed into a big of a corner, UW a little less rested.

Granted, I don’t think a team could shoot worse at the rim than UW did in Ann Arbor.

I'd be curious as to how road teams fare in these Tuesday games when both played over the weekend.  I'm guessing not good.  I don't think it's going to be like the Purdue game, I'm thinking MSU is ahead for a decent while, but always between like 2-6, then a UW run between the 12 and 8 TV timeouts flips that, and UW wins by about that margin.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Sagarin has both road teams as slight favorites. Purdue by about a point and MSU by about two. 

[bayareabadger]

I read 14 for 46. Is this accurate? That's horrible.

I think Potrykus wrote 37 percent, I had something like that, 6-20 after halftime.
Some of that is the Happ factor. When he goes 2-9 in a half, that’ll drag that down. 

[Anonymous Coward]

I read 14 for 46. Is this accurate? That's horrible.

I don't know if it was that bad close to the rim, but it wasn't good. A lot of it came from how Teske was defending Happ late. After Happ return from his 3 foul autobench, with 9 minutes remaining, Teske still only had 1 foul and was free to play Happ as aggressively as it took, and Happ finished 2-for-9.

[medinabuckeye1]

Sagarin has both road teams as slight favorites. Purdue by about a point and MSU by about two.

If it plays out like that, the new standings (assuming Michigan wins at Penn State) will be:

• 12-2 Michigan
• 11-2 Purdue
• 11-3 Michigan State
• 9-5 Maryland
• 9-5 Wisconsin
• 8-5 Iowa
• 6-6 Ohio State

That would effectively eliminate UMD and UW from the Championship race because M, PU, and MSU aren't all going to play .500 ball down the stretch.  If you need one really good team to have a bad stretch run there is hope but if you need three of them it is over.  

The race for the #4 seed would be interesting with UMD, UW, IA, and tOSU all within one loss of each other for 4th place.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Agreed. If the top three all win tonight, it really takes everyone else out of the race. Heck, effectively if either UW or MD lose tonight, they're eliminated from the race. Any team that wins at least still has a shot, but it's really only blown wide open if both win. 

However, I posted the Sagarin not to highlight that MSU and PU are favored, but that they are favored by VERY narrow margins, and both play in quite hostile road venues. Effectively not much better than a pick'em game. Given the narrow margin, I wouldn't be shocked to see either home team win. 

Vegas has Purdue by 2 or 2.5, depending on the sportsbook.
Vegas has MSU by 1.5 across the board.
Vegas has UM by 7 on the road against PSU.

I.e. a Terp or Badger win won't be much of a shock, while a PSU win would be a major shock.

[medinabuckeye1]

However, I posted the Sagarin not to highlight that MSU and PU are favored, but that they are favored by VERY narrow margins, and both play in quite hostile road venues. Effectively not much better than a pick'em game. Given the narrow margin, I wouldn't be shocked to see either home team win.

I was thinking the same thing, that is why I am so interested in these two games.  I could see either of them going either way and it makes a big difference.  UMD/UW are effectively facing elimination.  If they both lose there is a four-way race for the final double-bye in the BTT (the #4 seed).  
If they both win (still assuming Michigan wins at Penn State) the new standings would be:

• 12-2 Michigan
• 10-3 Purdue
• 10-4 Michigan State
• 10-4 Maryland
• 10-4 Wisconsin

Considering that Michigan's remaining schedule includes two games each against UMD and MSU the conference title race would be wide open among those five teams.  I think that Purdue would be the odds on favorite because after tonight their toughest remaining game is either @IU (rivalry), @MN, or vs tOSU.  They will be a pretty strong favorite in all three of those and an even bigger favorite in their other remaining games (vPSU, @UNL, vIL, @NU).  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Agreed. And if Purdue wins tonight, then I think they're the runaway favorite to finish as at least co-champion, regardless of Michigan winning tonight or anything MSU does.

[ELA]

Apparently the line in some places has moved in some places 5.5 points in MSU's direction in the past day?  Is there any Wisconsin news I'm missing?  That seems like a lot of movement just based on action, and I'm surprised there would be that much action right now on MSU anyway.

[ELA]

Massey composite rankings (58 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...

• Duke (1)
• Gonzaga (3)
• Virginia (2)
• Tennessee (4)
• Kentucky (8)
• MICHIGAN (6)
• MICHIGAN STATE (5)
• North Carolina (7)
• PURDUE (11)
• Nevada (12)
• Kansas (10)
• Houston (13)
• Texas Tech (19)
• Villanova (15)
• Louisville (17)
• WISCONSIN (16)
• LSU (21)
• Virginia Tech (9)
• Iowa State (14)
• Florida State (-)
• Marquette (18)
• MARYLAND (22)
• Auburn (20)
• IOWA (23)
• Kansas State (-)

• 32. Ohio State (34)
• 46. Nebraska (37)
• 47. Minnesota (48)
• 48. Indiana (46)
• 74. Northwestern (65)
• 84. Illinois (105)
• 92. Penn State (98)
• 105. Rutgers (99)

[847badgerfan]

Apparently the line in some places has moved in some places 5.5 points in MSU's direction in the past day?  Is there any Wisconsin news I'm missing?  That seems like a lot of movement just based on action, and I'm surprised there would be that much action right now on MSU anyway.

Nothing out there to make this happen.

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Bubble Watch:
According to Lunardi the B1G has three bubble teams.  Ohio State and Minnesota are both listed among his "last four byes" as a #9 (tOSU) and #10 (MN) seeds while Indiana is barely out and included among his "first four out".  However, that has not been updated since February 8 which was prior to Ohio State's win in Bloomington so it is a safe bet that when it gets updated the Buckeyes will have a bit more breathing room and the Hoosiers will be further out.  

Oddly, at least according to Lunardi, the Buckeyes do have more breathing room (no longer listed on his bubble) but Indiana apparently didn't move down and is currently listed first among his "first four out".  I think that is a stretch but whatever.  

Other than making the tournament (which I think is in NO WAY assured), my hope for this year's Ohio State team is to get off of that 8/9 line so that they'll have at least a plausible shot at a S16 appearance.  Right now Lunardi has the Buckeyes playing an 8/9 game against Washington in Columbia, SC.  That would probably be a good game but the prize for the winner is a date with Dook so the chances of making out of the first weekend would be extraordinarily slim.  

I updated the following two charts to include last year's tournament and UMBC's historic upset of #1 UVA.  Even with that (which allowed #9 KSU to waltz into the S16, the 272 #8/9 seeds have only managed to make the S16 20 times.  By way of comparison the 136 #7 seeds have 27 S16 appearances and the 136 #10 seeds have 23.  In fact, #11 seeds have more S16 appearances than #8's and #9's combined and #12's have as many as #8's and #9's combined.  

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[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW:
Based on Lunardi's projections and historic performance by seed, we should have five or six teams win their NCAA Tournament opener and three teams make the S16:

• Two #2 seeds (M and MSU) each have a 94.12% chance of winning the 2/15 game and a 62.5% chance of making the S16
• One #3 seed (PU) has an 83.8% chance of winning the 3/14 game and a 51.5% chance of making the S16
• One #4 seed (UW) has a 79.4% chance of winning the 4/13 game and a 47.1% chance of making the S16
• Two #6 seeds (IA and UMD) each have a 62.5% chance of winning the 6/11 game and a 30.9% chance of making the S16
• One #9 seed (tOSU) has a 50% chance of winning the 8/9 game and a 5.1% chance of making the S16
• One #11 seed (MN) has a 37.5% chance of winning the 6/11 game and a 16.2% chance of making the S16

The odds to win the first game sum to 564% so, in theory, our league should put five or six teams in the Round of 32.  The odds to make the S16 sum to 306.6% so, in theory, our league should put three teams in the Sweet Sixteen.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

@medinabuckeye1 have you seen this link? http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html

Yeah, as you point out the 8/9 is a horrible seed line. They combine for about 15% of S16 appearances, whereas either 7 or 10 have individually better odds, and a combined 36% chance of making the S16.

Oddly enough although the goal is to climb to a 7, you almost would rather they fall to the 10 seed than stay at 8/9...