2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[betarhoalphadelta]

Amazing escape for Iowa... 

[medinabuckeye1]

Update on tiers:
The only unexpected result this weekend was Ohio State's win in Bloomington.  The Buckeyes now have to move up to tier-3.  Explanation:
For more than a week I have been saying that Ohio State was in a no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4.  They had two losses that would be negative upsets for a tier-3 team (vUMD, @RU) and two wins that would be positive upsets for a tier-4 team (@IL - actually neutral, @UNL).  Thus they were either +2 in tier-4 or -2 in tier-3 so we left them in tier-4.  Now that they have another positive upset (the win @IU), they are either +3 in tier-4 or -1 in tier-3.  Consequently, they are moving up to tier-3.  

Ohio State's move up to tier-3 causes numerous changes:

• Two Ohio State wins that used to be upsets are now expected results (@IL, @UNL)
• Two Ohio State losses that were not upsets now are (vUMD, @RU)
• Two future games that were projected tOSU losses are now projected tOSU wins (vUW, @NU)

Here is where moving Ohio State up puts every team (with +/-):

• Purdue+1, Michigan-1, Michigan State-2
• Maryland, Wisconsin-1
• Iowa+1, Ohio State-1
• Minnestoa+1, Indiana-2
• Illinois+2, Rutgers+1, Nebraska+1, Northwestern
• Penn State

As you can see, all teams are within +/-1 except:
Michigan State:
The Spartans are -2 but their two upset losses (vIU, @IL) would be upsets even if we dropped them.  I think this is just a product of being in a high tier where there are LOTS of opportunities for negative variance and having a mid-season lull.  We'll keep an eye on it, but for now leave them in tier-1.  

Illinois:
The Illini are +2 but their two upset wins (@UMD - actually neutral, vMSU) would be upsets even if we elevated them.  I think this is just a product of being in a low tier where there are LOTS of opportunities for positive variance and having the ability to play REALLY well but being completely inconsistent about it.  We'll keep an eye on it, bur for now leave them in tier-5

Indiana:
The Hoosiers are the complicated one.  For one thing, they have been involved in four upsets (more than any other team).  They have a positive upset (@MSU) and three negative upset home losses (UNL, IA, tOSU).  The announcers discussed this during the tOSU/IU game yesterday.  Indiana has some really nice wins but they are still 4-9 in conference because they also have some really bad losses.  One thing that catches my eye is that the Hoosiers' last two games were home losses in games they were expected to win (IA, tOSU).  

The difference between tier-4 (where they are now) and tier-5 (where we could move them down) is the expected result in home games against tier-3 teams and road games against tier-6 teams.  Those are:

• vIA, L
• vtOSU, L
• @PSU, W

Being that they are 1-2 in those games, the Hoosiers should be moved down.  Thus, the win over PSU will become an upset win while the home losses to IA and tOSU will no longer be upsets.  

Moving Indiana down puts Ohio State at -2.  The problem here is that if we move Ohio State down they go to +3 so they'll stay in tier-3 because -2 is closer than +3.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated tiers:

• Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State
• Wisconsin, Maryland
• Iowa, Ohio State
• Minnesota
• Illinois, Rutgers, Indiana, Northwestern, Nebraska
• Penn State

Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 17-3/24-7 Purdue
• 16-4/27-4 Michigan
• 15-5/23-8 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker over MSU based on H2H, no game in East Lansing)
• 15-5/24-7 Michigan State
• 14-6/23-8 Maryland
• 13-7/24-7 Iowa
• 11-9/21-10 Ohio State
• 8-12/12-19 Illinois
• 7-13/17-14 Minnesota
• 6-14/13-17 Rutgers
• 5-15/15-16 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over IU and NU based on H2H2H, 2-0)
• 5-15/14-17 Indiana (loses tiebreaker to UNL based on H2H2H, 1-2; wins over NU based on record against the 15-5 teams)
• 5-15/14-17 Northwestern (loses to UNL based on H2H2H, 1-2; loses to IU based on record against the 15-5 teams)
• 3-17/10-21 Penn State

Thus, the projected BTT match-ups in Chicago are:
Wednesday, March 13:

• #11 Nebraska vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
• #12 Indiana vs #13 Northwestern, 6:30pm on BTN

Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):

• #5 Maryland vs IU/NU, 3pm on BTN
• #6 Iowa vs UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #7 Ohio State vs #10 Rutgers, 7pm on BTN
• #8 Illinois vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN

Friday, March 15:

• #1 Purdue vs IL/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
• #2 Michigan vs tOSU/RU, 7pm on BTN
• #3 Wisconsin vs IA/UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #4 Michigan State vs UMD/IU/NU, 3pm on BTN

Saturday, March 16:

• PU/IL/MN vs MSU/UMD/IU/NU, 1pm on CBS
• M/tOSU/RU vs UW/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 17:

• PU/IL/MN/MSU/UMD/IU/NU vs M/tOSU/RU/UW/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW:
The projection that I am the MOST confident about is that Ohio State will be the #7 seed in the BTT.  It would take a lot of unexpected results to change that:

Upside for the Buckeyes:
The Buckeyes are projected to finish two games behind the Hawkeyes but in addition to that, the Buckeyes would probably lose a tie with the Hawkeyes because they can do no better than 1-1 H2H and the Hawkeyes have a better win (second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) then the next, etc).  Consequently, there is very little chance of Ohio State passing the Hawkeyes for the #6 seed.  

Downside for the Buckeyes:
The Buckeyes are projected to finish three games ahead of the Illini but in addition to that, the Buckeyes would likely win a tie with the Illini because they already won the "road" game against Illinois.  Consequently, there is very little chance of Illinois passing the Buckeyes for the #7 seed.  

[ELA]

Small quibble, you have the 5 and 6 flipped as to who they'd play Thursday.

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Bubble Watch:
According to Lunardi the B1G has three bubble teams.  Ohio State and Minnesota are both listed among his "last four byes" as a #9 (tOSU) and #10 (MN) seeds while Indiana is barely out and included among his "first four out".  However, that has not been updated since February 8 which was prior to Ohio State's win in Bloomington so it is a safe bet that when it gets updated the Buckeyes will have a bit more breathing room and the Hoosiers will be further out.  

That said, I agree with Lunardi's assessment of B1G teams on the bubble.  IMHO, the top-6 in the B1G standings (M, PU, MSU, UW, UMD, and IA) are all either locks (M) or "should be in" (the others).  Conversely, PSU, UNL, NU, RU, and IL are all either in "need to win BTT" territory or "need a miraculous finish" territory.  

Barring an unexpected collapse by one of our top teams or a spectacular finish by one of our bottom teams it appears to me that our bubble teams are the aforementioned Buckeyes, Gophers, and Hoosiers.  

Ohio State 6-6/16-7 projected to finish 11-9/21-10:
The Buckeyes look a LOT better with the win in Bloomington than they looked before that.  Their remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:

• vNU
• vIL
• @NU
• vIA
• vUW
• @UMD
• @MSU
• @PU

As I see it, the Buckeyes should win the first two (a loss in either would be surprising/shocking) and go at least 2-1 in #3-#5.  If they do that, they will hit the BTT at 10-10/20-11 and probably in or at most just needing to win their first game to avoid a bad loss.  The major problem for the Buckeyes, as I see it, is that #6-8 are very difficult and thus extremely unlikely for the Buckeyes to win.  Consequently, an unexpected loss would be troubling because it would be VERY difficult to make up for it.  

Minnesota 6-7/16-8 projected to finish 7-13/17-14:
The problem for the Gophers is that their remaining schedule is rough.  Note that we project them to go just 1-6 in these last seven games.  The good news is that a number of those projected losses are winnable games.  The bad news is that they'll need to win a bunch of them because 7-13/17-14 obviously would not be enough.  Their remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:

• vIU
• @UNL
• @RU
• @NU
• vM
• vPU
• @UMD

While we only project them to win #1, I consider #2-#4 to be "winnable" games while even #5 and #6 aren't impossible (because they are at home).  

Indiana 4-9/13-11 projected to finish 5-15/14-17:
Much like Minnesota, the Hoosiers have a difficult remaining schedule.  Indiana is in worse shape though because they have a worse record now.  With nine conference losses already the Hoosiers have almost zero margin for error in their remaining seven games.  Those remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:

• vRU
• @IL
• @MN
• vUW
• @IA
• vMSU
• vPU

I'm having trouble seeing a plausible path to an at-large berth for the Hoosiers.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Small quibble, you have the 5 and 6 flipped as to who they'd play Thursday.

I don't think so.  I have #5 Maryland playing #4 Michigan State and #6 Iowa playing #3 Wisconsin.  No?

[ELA]

I don't think so.  I have #5 Maryland playing #4 Michigan State and #6 Iowa playing #3 Wisconsin.  No?

No, not Friday, Thursday.  You have 5 playing 11-14 and 6 playing 12-13

[grillrat]

Ohio State 6-6/16-7 projected to finish 11-9/21-10:
The Buckeyes look a LOT better with the win in Bloomington than they looked before that.  Their remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss IMHO, are:

• vNU
• vIL
• @NU
• vIA
• vUW
• @UMD
• @MSU
• @PU

I'd say the Illinois game is going to be harder than the @NU game.  Illinois is improving and has won 4 of their last 5.  Northwestern has lost 4 straight and their best win is against Illinois at home, which they barely won.

[medinabuckeye1]

No, not Friday, Thursday.  You have 5 playing 11-14 and 6 playing 12-13

Oops, I see now.  I fixed it.  

[medinabuckeye1]

I'd say the Illinois game is going to be harder than the @NU game.  Illinois is improving and has won 4 of their last 5.  Northwestern has lost 4 straight and their best win is against Illinois at home, which they barely won.

That is entirely possible.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Tonight's games are very interesting to me.  By the standings, our #2 (PU) and #3 (MSU) teams are going on the road to play our #4/5 (UMD and UW).  This will really clarify the regular season championship race.  

If PU and MSU both win:
The Championship will effectively be a three-team race between PU and the two Michigan schools.  Maryland and Wisconsin will be contending for the fourth and final double-bye with Iowa and Ohio State nipping at their heels.  

If UMD and UW both win:
All five will still, at least for now, remain in contention for the Championship.  

Do we have a top-3 then everyone else, or a top-4 then everyone else, or a top-5 then everyone else?  We'll find that out tonight.  

[bayareabadger]

Not excited for this matchup tonight. MSU backed into a big of a corner, UW a little less rested. 

Granted, I don’t think a team could shoot worse at the rim than UW did in Ann Arbor.

[847badgerfan]

Not excited for this matchup tonight. MSU backed into a big of a corner, UW a little less rested.

Granted, I don’t think a team could shoot worse at the rim than UW did in Ann Arbor.

I read 14 for 46. Is this accurate? That's horrible.