2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

I'm hopeful that Michigan will improve its shooting before the Michigan State games, but the team has to adjust to how well-scouted they are compared to non-con games.

One key advantage Michigan has from looking at the Barttorvik.com numbers is in turnovers at both ends. MSU is really bad at forcing them while Michigan is good at not committing them. Michigan is actually slightly above average at forcing them and MSU still commits an average amount at 18.7%.

To the other point, MSU's OR% is the same as the OR% allowed by Michigan at ~27%, but MSU's OR% and Michigan's DR% both rank 18th nationally with ther 12% discrepancy, so that will be key.

That site doesn't have Foul or FT rate numbers, but I know Michigan still ranks high in not committing fouls but is only average at drawing them, while MSU appears to still draw and commit a lot of fouls.

But to win, Michigan will have to shoot well and/or win the turnover margin significantly. Winston has had some of his worst games against Simpson, so I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, again.

This week is big for Michigan, though, with Ohio State and at Iowa.

MSU is above average at getting to the line (144th), but not by much. Pretty good at not fouling (62nd).
Michigan is third in not fouling, 249th in not getting to the line. 

[bayareabadger]

That's been how teams have played MSU for a solid decade+ now in conference.  It's why I think MSUs rebounding margin is still so good even in years they aren't an elite rebounding team.  I do think this is easily MSUs best half court offense since 2016 by a long shot.  And that 2016 may have been Izzo's best half court offense ever.

I find rebounding margin to be such an odd thing becuase it’s combining two different skills/strategies and somewhat situation dependent. 

And it’s interesting MSU can be so effective in transition but historically not play that fast. 

[Entropy]

UNL has not changed its stripes from last year.  All the talent to be a 2nd weekend team but most likely will end up NIT.   Husker fans fears and concerns about this staff and season have become reality.   

[medinabuckeye1]

Crazy weekend vis-a-vis the tiers.  There were six games on Saturday and Sunday and only one of the five had the expected result:

• Ohio State at Nebraska - Upset
• Northwestern at Wisconsin - as expected
• Illinois at* Maryland - Upset
• Rutgers at Penn State - Upset
• Michigan State at Purdue - Upset
• Iowa at Minnesota - Upset

*I know that this game was actually a neutral site game played at MSG in NYC but Maryland gave up a home game for it so I am treating it as a Maryland home game.  FWIW, I did the same thing with the tOSU/IL game in the United Center.  

Friday I made a post in which I stated that there had been, to that point, 57 B1G games and nine upsets.  That worked out to roughly one upset every six games.  Since then there have been seven more B1G games (including Friday's IU/M contest) and five more upsets so now we are at 14 upsets in 64 games or roughly one upset every five games.  Additionally, multiple teams are WAY off from their projection.  

Here are the current tiers with each team's net upsets:

• Michigan -1, Michigan State -1
• BLANK
• Purdue +2, Maryland -1, Nebraska -3
• Wisconsin EVEN (+2, -2), Iowa -2
• Indiana +1, Ohio State EVEN (+1, -1)
• Minnesota +3, Northwestern +1, Penn State -2
• Rutgers +2 (+3, -1), Illinois +1

My thoughts on moves:
Purdue:
The Boilermakers are at +2 due to a home win over MSU and a road win over Wisconsin.  I think we should move them up into the blank tier.  That only makes a difference in home games against the Michigan schools (PU is 1-0 with no more to play) and road games against the tier-4 schools (PU is 1-0 with no more to play).  

Nebraska:
The Cornhuskers are at -3 due to a road loss to MN, a road loss to RU, and a home loss to tOSU.  Moving them down wouldn't eliminate any of those upsets unless we also move Minnesota up (see below).  

Iowa is at -2 due to a home loss to UW and a road loss to MN.  I don't think we need to move them down because moving MN up will eliminate the MN upset.  

Minnesota is at +3 due to a home win over UNL, a road win over UW, and a home win over IA.  Moving them up a tier would impact the projection for the following four games:

• vs UW (2/6)
• vs IA Won
• at IL Lost
• at RU (2/24)

The Gophers are 1-1 in those games with two more to play but considering their other two positive upsets I think we should move them up.  

Penn State is at -2 due to home losses to RU and IU.  I think they have to move down.  

Thus, my proposed new tiers are:

• Michigan, Michigan State
• Purdue
• Maryland
• Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa
• Indiana, Ohio State, Minnesota
• Northwestern
• Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers

Thoughts?

[betarhoalphadelta]

I think the way Purdue is playing right now, I agree with the move to tier 2.

Based on Sagarin prediction method, I think moving Nebraska down could make sense. Their rating is still solid, but the "recent" rating is a huge gap. They're trending down, and without Copeland I don't see them arresting that fall. 

[847badgerfan]

Yep, I think that looks fair. UNL and even UMD need to be monitored closely.


We are about to learn a whole lot about UW, over the next couple of weeks. 


@ UNL tomorrow
UMD Friday
@ Minnie 2/6 Wed
@ Michigan 2/9 Sat
MSU 2/12 Tues

[medinabuckeye1]

Thank you @bwarbiany and @847badgerfan for your quick responses.  Based on that, I adopted the new tiers as proposed:

• Michigan, Michigan State
• Purdue
• Maryland
• Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska
• Indiana, Ohio State, Minnesota
• Northwestern
• Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State

The updated projected final standings and BTT seeds are as follows:

• 18-2/29-2 Michigan (wins tiebreaker over MSU based on record against PU)
• 18-2/27-4 Michigan State
• 17-3/24-7 Purdue
• 12-8/21-10 Maryland
• 11-9/19-12 Wisconsin
• 10-10/21-10 Iowa (wins tiebreaker over UNL based on record against UMD)
• 10-10/20-11 Nebraska
• 9-11/19-12 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over IU based on record against UW, wins tiebreaker over MN based on record against IA and UNL)
• 9-11/19-12 Minnesota (second in three-way tiebreaker)
• 9-11/18-13 Indiana (last in three-way tie with MN/tOSU based on record against UW)
• 7-13/16-15 Northwestern
• 5-15/9-22 Illinois
• 4-16/11-19 Rutgers
• 1-19/8-23 Penn State

The match-ups in the BTT at the United Center in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:

• #11 Northwestern vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
• #12 Illinois vs #13 Rutgers, 6:30pm on BTN

Thursday, March 14 Pi Day!:

• #5 Wisconsin vs NU/PSU, 3pm on BTN
• #6 Iowa vs IL/RU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #7 Nebraska vs #10 Indiana, 7pm on BTN
• #8 Ohio Sate vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN

Friday, March 15:

• #1 Michigan vs tOSU/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs UNL/IU, 7pm on BTN
• #3 Purdue vs IA/IL/RU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #4 Maryland vs UW/NU/PSU, 3pm on BTN

Saturday, March 16:

• M/tOSU/MN vs UMD/UW/NU/PSU, 1pm on CBS
• MSU/UNL/IU vs PU/IA/IL/RU, 3:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 17:

• M/tOSU/MN/UMD/UW/NU/PSU vs MSU/UNL/IU/PU/IA/IL/RU, 3:30pm on CBS

[mcwterps1]

Maryland still too high. 

[847badgerfan]

Maryland still too high.

Seems to me Maryland is on notice. They will likely drop a tier if they lose to NU at home. Ultimately it's up to MB to propose a change of status, and it's up to us posters to provide feedback/arguments.

[medinabuckeye1]

Seems to me Maryland is on notice. They will likely drop a tier if they lose to NU at home. Ultimately it's up to MB to propose a change of status, and it's up to us posters to provide feedback/arguments.

Please feel free to propose changes.  I have never wanted this tier thing to me "my" thing and I don't look at it that way, I look for consensus.  
That said, I'm not going to move a team based on one person thinking they should be moved.  
Maryland:
Right now Maryland is at -1.  They have one upset loss, the "home" loss to Illinois.  That would be an upset no matter what so it isn't a big factor.  Moving Maryland down to tier-4 would impact the projection for four games:

• vs PU (2/12)
• at IU (not played)
• at tOSU (Won 75-61 on 1/18)
• at MN (Won 82-67 on 1/8)

The Terps are 2-0 with one more to play in games where tier-3/tier-4 makes a difference so I can't see dropping them unless they lose at least two more upsets.  

[847badgerfan]

Exactly. That is why I said they are on notice.

[MaximumSam]

Mid conference Kenpom

1. MSU (3)
2. UM (5)
3. Purdue (7)
4. Wisconsin (11)
5. Nebraska (18)
6. Maryland (23)
7. Iowa (30)
8. OSU (31)
9. Indiana (43)
10. NW (56)
11. Minnesota (57)
12. PSU (69)
13. Illinois (81)
14. Rutgers (100)

[847badgerfan]

Mid conference Kenpom

1. MSU (3), UM (5), Purdue (7)
2. Wisconsin (11), Nebraska (18), Maryland (23)
3. Iowa (30), OSU (31), Indiana (43)
4. NW (56), Minnesota (57),
5. PSU (69), Illinois (81), Rutgers (100)

Tiers could look like that, in kenpom fashion, I think.

[medinabuckeye1]

The Buckeyes are now 3-5/13-6 with 12 to play.  The 12 remaining games break evenly into:

• Four they will almost certainly lose (@M, @MSU, @UMD, @PU)
• Four they will almost certainly win (vRU, vPSU, vILL, vNU)
• Four that could plausibly go either way (@IU, vIA, @NU, vUW)

If we assume that Ohio State will win the games that they should win and lose the games that they should lose that gets them to 7-9/17-10 with four to go.  The season hinges on those four that could go either way:

• @IU on 2/10:  Should lose but could win.  
• vIA on 2/26:  Should win but could lose.  
• @NU on 3/6:  Should lose but could win.  
• vUW on 3/10:  Should win but could lose.  

Possibilities as I see it:

• Sweep those four, finish 11-9/21-10:  Lock for the NCAA Tournament.  
• Go 3-1, finish 10-10/20-11:  Might be a lock but might need to win the BTT opener.  
• Split those four, finish 9-11/19-12:  Lots of work to do in Chicago.  
• Get swept in those four, finish 8-12/18-13:  Need to win BTT.