2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[mcwterps1]

Isn't that the exact point of the S curve?  Now if a bracket implodes and you get lucky that way, that's different.

But in fairness, I do have MSU losing to Maryland in the Sweet 16 anyway, so all for naught.

Come on man.
Turge is the ☓-factor. Many predicting Belmont to defeat Maryland, after playing a team one day prior! 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I get all of that.  I really do.  But I also get what the Committee Chair was saying too.  When they are bracketing these teams their job isn’t really to assume who is going to win what and have to face each other.  Duke and Michigan St each have to win 3 games to get to each other.  There’s a pretty decent chance that is going to happen but there’s a pretty decent chance it won’t happen, too.

That's all well and good, if they were deciding whether to send MSU to DC or to Anaheim. Perhaps if it was Anaheim, you move them closer. 
But there are four 2-seeds, ranked in this order [I think]:

• Tennessee
• MSU
• Kentucky
• Michigan

Those seeds could all go to DC, Louisville, Kansas City, or Anaheim.

• Tennessee gets first consideration, and if "close to home vs ease of opponent" is balanced, Louisville is MUCH closer to Knoxville than the others, and it avoids Duke, so it makes sense.
• MSU and Kentucky are next. All things being equal, MSU should get the easier opponent, as long as the travel considerations aren't an issue. East Lansing->DC is 590 miles. East Lansing->KC is 703 miles. Lexington->DC is 537 miles. Lexington->KC is 583 miles. Travel considerations shouldn't be an issue here. You give MSU the easier bracket and UK the harder bracket. This also makes sense because MSU is a midwestern school in a midwestern conference while Kentucky is much more eastern school in a southeastern conference. 
• Michigan gets what's left. They got lucky that travel considerations "screwed" them and managed to put them in the easiest bracket. 

Basically I think it's ridiculous, even if you assume that travel distance is a factor, that the 113 additional miles to KC were enough to put MSU into a MUCH stronger bracket than UK, AND put them in the potential path of two conference mates in MD/MN rather than one conference mate in OSU. 

[bayareabadger]

Isn't that the exact point of the S curve?  Now if a bracket implodes and you get lucky that way, that's different.

But in fairness, I do have MSU losing to Maryland in the Sweet 16 anyway, so all for naught.

I believe they stopped using the S-curve as a factor. At least that’s what some CBS guys said.
On the plus side, lamenting the bracket is part of the process. 

[bayareabadger]

The NET rankings have some pretty clear issues that the NCAA will need to iron out.  NC State for example is a major outlier.  And I'm not terribly pleased with how the NET rankings viewed the Gophers.  Rated #61 prior to the Big Ten Tournament.  Both Indiana and Penn State were viewed much more favorably despite worse records.  Efficiency is weighted far to heavy and SOS doesn't seem to matter much.....which is why NC State was so highly rated despite having the worst strength of schedule in division 1 basketball.  If the season would have ended prior to the Big Ten Tournament.....and NET was the primary tool used for the selection committee.....the Gophers would have been left out.  And who even knows what their NET ranking is now.

And I don't exactly love the draw.  Louisville will be a good test.....but I'm with MSU fans......they should have gotten a #1 seed.  It sucks that if the Gophers win their first round matchup.....they'll have to play MSU.

Their net ranking is still 61. 
Because a team’s own net ranking should be pretty secondary.  
But because when we put numbers next to teams, people lose their minds, we get this debate every year. 
Minnesota is actually more interesting because A. Net gave the resume a slight boost, even if it was only a No. 41 RPI team. B. Minnesota’s non-conference schedule is an interesting contrast to the N.C. State one as it has a dearth of “good” teams, but raises the floor with better not-good teams.

[Kris60]

Yeah, I’m not even sure the S curve is still used.  Maybe it is, I don’t know.  I really do get where MSU fans are coming from in this particular instance but I think the committee is doing the best they can trying to balance location, seeding, etc.

And location still matters to people.  I remember a few years Gonzaga as a 7 seed had to play WVU as a 10 seed in Pittsburgh and Gonzaga fans being REALLY unhappy about that (and for good reason).

[betarhoalphadelta]

And location still matters to people.  I remember a few years Gonzaga as a 7 seed had to play WVU as a 10 seed in Pittsburgh and Gonzaga fans being REALLY unhappy about that (and for good reason).

I thought they only tried to protect location for the top 4 seed lines... I.e. if you were 5-16, you got what you got. 
But I think the point still stands. From East Lansing, DC vs KC is largely the same distance [given that Louisville was already taken]. 100 miles shouldn't be a factor. If you're assuming that MSU as 6th overall should have an "easier" bracket than UK as 7th overall, it makes no sense to "save" 100 miles to put them up against the #1 overall seed. 

[ELA]

Come on man.
Turge is the ☓-factor. Many predicting Belmont to defeat Maryland, after playing a team one day prior!

That is what I'm struggling with.  Belmont or Maryland.  I feel really good about whoever wins that beating LSU, and then I always pick MSU to win 2nd games of a weekend, that's historically where Izzo has done well.  I'm not picking them to beat Duke, so I have to pick them to lose in the Sweet 16, which just happens to be Maryland.

[ELA]

• Tennessee gets first consideration, and if "close to home vs ease of opponent" is balanced, Louisville is MUCH closer to Knoxville than the others, and it avoids Duke, so it makes sense.
• MSU and Kentucky are next. All things being equal, MSU should get the easier opponent, as long as the travel considerations aren't an issue. East Lansing->DC is 590 miles. East Lansing->KC is 703 miles. Lexington->DC is 537 miles. Lexington->KC is 583 miles. Travel considerations shouldn't be an issue here. You give MSU the easier bracket and UK the harder bracket. This also makes sense because MSU is a midwestern school in a midwestern conference while Kentucky is much more eastern school in a southeastern conference.
• Michigan gets what's left. They got lucky that travel considerations "screwed" them and managed to put them in the easiest bracket.

Basically I think it's ridiculous, even if you assume that travel distance is a factor, that the 113 additional miles to KC were enough to put MSU into a MUCH stronger bracket than UK, AND put them in the potential path of two conference mates in MD/MN rather than one conference mate in OSU.

That's part of it.  It's not like it was between playing Duke in Cleveland, or someone else in Seattle.  Either way you are getting on a plane and going basically the same distance.  Totally different than Gonzaga having to play a de facto road game at West Virginia.

[bayareabadger]

I’ve come to a peace with the idea UW will lose round 1. 

I don’t quite see it as clearly as the rest of the world seems to, beyond UW’s not-good offense against Oregon’s good defense. 

But UW is due to disappoint, and I’d rather not spend the week defending UW’s honor, only to see conventional wisdom be right after a game seeped in randomness goes one way. If UW loses or wins, I imagine I’ll have a good feel why or why not.

I listened to something that suggested Irvine might upset KSU without its best player and then get Oregon, which feels like a nightmare scenario in terms of feelings.

[TyphonInc]

I don't think anyone other than possibly @bwarbiany will care, but here is the math behind all of that:

I care! and Thanks.

[ELA]

I’ve come to a peace with the idea UW will lose round 1.

I don’t quite see it as clearly as the rest of the world seems to, beyond UW’s not-good offense against Oregon’s good defense.

But UW is due to disappoint, and I’d rather not spend the week defending UW’s honor, only to see conventional wisdom be right after a game seeped in randomness goes one way. If UW loses or wins, I imagine I’ll have a good feel why or why not.

I listened to something that suggested Irvine might upset KSU without its best player and then get Oregon, which feels like a nightmare scenario in terms of feelings.

Yeah, I'm holding out on the Dean Wade thing.  I'm going to keep picking against Virginia until they prove me wrong, so if he's in, I've got them beating Virginia.  If he's out, I'll pick Irvine to beat them.  I doubt we know one way or the other in time.

[Kris60]

I thought they only tried to protect location for the top 4 seed lines... I.e. if you were 5-16, you got what you got.
But I think the point still stands. From East Lansing, DC vs KC is largely the same distance [given that Louisville was already taken]. 100 miles shouldn't be a factor. If you're assuming that MSU as 6th overall should have an "easier" bracket than UK as 7th overall, it makes no sense to "save" 100 miles to put them up against the #1 overall seed.

No, I get it.  I’m talking more in general and you are talking about Michigan St’s plight specifically.  And if I’m a MSU fan I’ll travel the extra 120 miles to watch them play Gonzaga as opposed to Duke.
But, again, I’m not sure the committee is sitting in a room assuming MSU and Duke are going to play each other.  I think they try to seed them appropriately and send them to the most advantageous locations as possible.  I don’t think they are thinking 3 rounds ahead.

[Kris60]

Yeah, I'm holding out on the Dean Wade thing.  I'm going to keep picking against Virginia until they prove me wrong, so if he's in, I've got them beating Virginia.  If he's out, I'll pick Irvine to beat them.  I doubt we know one way or the other in time.

I have UVA winning it all.  If my life depended on it that wouldn’t be my pick but I do think this is the year they get to the Final 4.  And I am not a believer in K-State.  I don’t know what my problem is with them but I have them getting bounced early every year.  Sometimes when you see a team a lot in your conference you fall in love with them and sometimes you just keep thinking, “They aren’t that good.”  I’m always the latter with K-State.  I do have them in the Sweet 16 but I think UVA handles them.

[medinabuckeye1]

Yep. For example, there's only a 40.9% likelihood of BOTH UW and MD making the round of 32. For the top 5 seeds to go 5-0 in the R64 is only 30.6% likely.

While at the same time the likelihood that the bottom three seeds will go 0-3 is only 23.8%, or inverted, there is a 76.2% chance that one or more teams in that bottom three will win a game.

I care! and Thanks.

LoL.  I knew @bwarbiany would want the math and I figured he'd add his $0.02.  Good to know that @TyphonInc cared too.