2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

@medinabuckeye1 have you seen this link? http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html

Yeah, as you point out the 8/9 is a horrible seed line. They combine for about 15% of S16 appearances, whereas either 7 or 10 have individually better odds, and a combined 36% chance of making the S16.

Oddly enough although the goal is to climb to a 7, you almost would rather they fall to the 10 seed than stay at 8/9...

If I were a fan of a school that had either no tournament wins or very few tournament wins then I'd rather have my team be a #9 seed because they have a 50/50 chance of getting a tournament win.  As a fan of a school that has tournament wins, I'd rather have my team be a #10 because #10 seeds are more than three times as likely to make it to the S16.  In the long run I really only barely care whether or not my team wins the 8/9 or 7/10 game.  In 10 years I won't even remember but in 10 years I will remember a S16 appearance so yeah, I'd rather have my team be a #10 than a #9.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

If I were a fan of a school that had either no tournament wins or very few tournament wins then I'd rather have my team be a #9 seed because they have a 50/50 chance of getting a tournament win.  As a fan of a school that has tournament wins, I'd rather have my team be a #10 because #10 seeds are more than three times as likely to make it to the S16.  In the long run I really only barely care whether or not my team wins the 8/9 or 7/10 game.  In 10 years I won't even remember but in 10 years I will remember a S16 appearance so yeah, I'd rather have my team be a #10 than a #9.  

Huge debates go on in the comments section at Hammer & Rails, the Purdue fan blog, about the value of the 6 seed...
Purdue has been screwed by our seeding. Every single time [in Painter's tenure] that we've made the S16 as a 4/5 seed, we've faced the #1 seed. With predictable results. The one time we made the S16 as a 2 seed, it was after the Haas injury in the R64 game, so we didn't have arguably our biggest mismatch.
Although more 4's and 5's make it to the Elite Eights than 6's, if you manage to reach the S16 as a 6 you have a 1/3 chance of making the Elite Eight. And then you have a greater chance that someone else has knocked off the #1 seed for you.

[bayareabadger]

Apparently the line in some places has moved in some places 5.5 points in MSU's direction in the past day?  Is there any Wisconsin news I'm missing?  That seems like a lot of movement just based on action, and I'm surprised there would be that much action right now on MSU anyway.

Opened pickem, seems to be bouncing between 2 or 2.5 either way

[mcwterps1]

Just when I think Mark Turgeon can't field a worst team, we play another game.

No one does less with more than this clown. 

[bayareabadger]

I don't know if it was that bad close to the rim, but it wasn't good. A lot of it came from how Teske was defending Happ late. After Happ return from his 3 foul autobench, with 9 minutes remaining, Teske still only had 1 foul and was free to play Happ as aggressively as it took, and Happ finished 2-for-9.

That’s fair, but some of it was, Happ missed shots you just need to hit to pull that upset. Were they easy, no, but neither were Matthews’.
He had a pretty understated play that wasn’t that. Happ tried to zip a pass to Reuvers cutting to the rim. It was probably aggressive, but Teske batted and caught it. If UW gets a dunk there (maybe and-1 if lucky), it’s a 1-point game. Instead it was 53-50 before the long stalemate that ended with a tough Matthews basket to make it a 5-point game with under 1:30.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Just when I think Mark Turgeon can't field a worst team, we play another game.

No one does less with more than this clown.

Well, Painter is trying to keep the Terps in it, throwing Boudreaux out there at the 5. He can't compete with guys like Fernando.
I recognize Williams got an early foul, but I wonder why we're not at least trying to get Haarms in there. If the foul trouble gets rough, bring out Boudreaux for some minutes later in the game.

[bayareabadger]

Well, Painter is trying to keep the Terps in it, throwing Boudreaux out there at the 5. He can't compete with guys like Fernando.
I recognize Williams got an early foul, but I wonder why we're not at least trying to get Haarms in there. If the foul trouble gets rough, bring out Boudreaux for some minutes later in the game.

Has Boudreaux kinda been a dud for y’all?

[betarhoalphadelta]

Has Boudreaux kinda been a dud for y’all?

He started the year playing the 5. I think part of that is that it's what he wants, but also that we didn't realize Williams was going to be good. He did pretty well against mid-major competition, but he started to fall off when we faced better competition, who had legit athletic, skilled, bigs. 
Boudreaux just isn't a 5 in this league. 5's in this league have 2-6 inches on him and 30 lbs, as well as being skilled and athletic enough to make use of that size. He's just not capable of handling them. 
I like him, but I think he needs to find a way to move to the 4. I think he's be more suited there. 

[bayareabadger]

UW opened with an Iverson post up and is down 4-0. I am annoyed. 

[bayareabadger]

He started the year playing the 5. I think part of that is that it's what he wants, but also that we didn't realize Williams was going to be good. He did pretty well against mid-major competition, but he started to fall off when we faced better competition, who had legit athletic, skilled, bigs.
Boudreaux just isn't a 5 in this league. 5's in this league have 2-6 inches on him and 30 lbs, as well as being skilled and athletic enough to make use of that size. He's just not capable of handling them.
I like him, but I think he needs to find a way to move to the 4. I think he's be more suited there.

UW fans were hoping to get him as a third Big, though a skinny stretch 4 was kinda in his path. Would’ve liked him. Oh well. 

[mcwterps1]

How many missed layups are we at now? 6?

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue over-helps on D, leading to wide-open 3 point attempts... It's been a problem all year, largely caused by the inability to defend straight up at the 5 when Williams isn't in. So we over-help on a big, leaving a shooter sitting wide open usually on the weak side.

[bayareabadger]

Wisconsin is being sloppy and it is causing me to have rage. Also Iverson is being super useless. 

[mcwterps1]

Painter out coaches Turgeon hands down with special needs kids. 

Turgeon is a moron.