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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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utee94 · « **Reply #1498 on:** April 08, 2020, 10:45:15 AM »

I think there will be a portion of the population that will believe that. Heck, there's a portion of the population that believes what's currently happening, is a government-initiated attack on civil rights.

And I found the assumptions on the IMHE model here: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

It assumes currently level of social distancing through the end of May. That constitutes the "first wave" and they believe that a second wave can be avoided through extreme efforts of testing, contact-tracing, and selective quarantine for those that have it.

I'm not sure we're going to get there on the high levels of testing they're discussing. And I also don't think we're going to get to the end of May with the current level of restrictions.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #1499 on:** April 08, 2020, 11:19:07 AM »

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 08, 2020, 09:33:19 AM

To add to your point, I believe that some hospitals/states are inflating the number of deaths of COVID. That is to say that they are counting people that die of other ailments and have tested positive for COVID as dying from COVID instead of dying WITH COVID. I read an article about this in Italy. The Minister of the Dept of Health in Italy stated that 88% of the people that were reported to having died from COVID, in fact died of other ailments and simply tested positive for COVID. In other words, there is a difference from dying OF COVID from dying WITH COVID.

The analogy is that someone with COVID and shows no symptoms, commits suicide. There are accusations that these people are counted in the deaths from COVID when obviously their death was self induced. Based on the way that hospitals and states like to use statistics to fund things, it is not inconceivable that there are those that would engage in this activity to drive up the numbers.

Another thing that would affect the R naught value would be the number of people that most likely either have or have had the virus but were never tested. I have heard and read quite a bit that speculates this number of people could be much higher than some are predicting. Until we can test everyone, I don't believe we will ever know the real R naught value.

I think this might be half true. I think it was that they didn't die solely of COVID, but that there were other factors like previous heart or lung issues.

I've not seen a clear enough list of what those other issues are. If it's just advanced stuff, there might be some legs to that. If it's asthma, diabetes and hypertension, then it's fair to say lots of people with those diseases might not all be dying, but for something that has a nasty effect on the lungs.

The suicide thing isn't a great analogy because the things are mostly independent (same with say a car accident). I mean, technically AIDS doesn't kill you, but it makes you super susceptible to everything else. And there's the flip side that if you die from something COVID related before you're tested, you often don't count anyway.

(The desire to say "what if it's not actually really a problem" to the scale that they're saying is also an interesting one, something about how our brains react to these situations)

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1500 on:** April 08, 2020, 11:28:00 AM »

I read somewhere a while back the 80 percent of Italy's fatalities had 2 or more underlying conditions.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #1501 on:** April 08, 2020, 11:34:36 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 11:19:07 AM

(The desire to say "what if it's not actually really a problem" to the scale that they're saying is also an interesting one, something about how our brains react to these situations)

I think that's a good point... I can see a couple of reasons our natural response would be to minimize this...

Just flat out, it's scary. Our brains don't want to believe that we're facing something on the order of a pandemic that our grandchildren will be talking about in 50 years the way we talk about the Spanish Flu. We want to believe the danger is overinflated so that we don't have to face the reality if it's not.
Pointing out comorbid conditions is one way to say "yeah, maybe this thing is really serious, but not for me." Which is somewhat true--if you're healthy, below 50, and have no known comorbidities, the mortality rate is low. But it's a way to make the fear about other people instead of ourselves.
We all want our lives to go back to "normal", so if we tell ourselves "it's not that bad" or "we're at the peak" we can believe that we'll be back to normal sooner.

I think #3 is true for a lot of people... They want this to be over, and they'll tell themselves that it's coming "soon" as we're just about to kick COVID's butt.

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #1502 on:** April 08, 2020, 12:33:05 PM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on April 08, 2020, 11:19:07 AM

I think this might be half true. I think it was that they didn't die solely of COVID, but that there were other factors like previous heart or lung issues.

I've not seen a clear enough list of what those other issues are. If it's just advanced stuff, there might be some legs to that. If it's asthma, diabetes and hypertension, then it's fair to say lots of people with those diseases might not all be dying, but for something that has a nasty effect on the lungs.

The suicide thing isn't a great analogy because the things are mostly independent (same with say a car accident). I mean, technically AIDS doesn't kill you, but it makes you super susceptible to everything else. And there's the flip side that if you die from something COVID related before you're tested, you often don't count anyway.

(The desire to say "what if it's not actually really a problem" to the scale that they're saying is also an interesting one, something about how our brains react to these situations)

I just found this a few mins ago from the New York Post

Quote

The federal government is classifying the deaths of patients infected with the coronavirus as COVID-19 deaths, regardless of any underlying health issues that could have contributed to the loss of someone’s life.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, said the federal government is continuing to count the suspected COVID-19 deaths, despite other nations doing the opposite.

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem,” she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. “Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.

“The intent is … if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that,” she added.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/

So if someone dies in a car accident that has tested positive for COVID, we are counting that as a COVID death. That is completely wrong and is inflating the number of actual COVID CAUSED deaths.

The bottom line is that the government and the media are playing fast and loose with the truth. I do agree that this virus is serious and we need to take steps to prevent it from spreading. My point is that the last thing we need is the government or the media spreading false hoods in the process. I want clear and credible information, not something to sensationalize the issue.

FearlessF · « **Reply #1503 on:** April 08, 2020, 12:41:36 PM »

I just saw something set to me on messenger

"Skydiver who forgot parachute dies of Corona Virus"

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #1504 on:** April 08, 2020, 12:45:44 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on April 08, 2020, 12:41:36 PM

I just saw something set to me on messenger

"Skydiver who forgot parachute dies of Corona Virus"

I don't know how true this may or may not be, but it does cause a person to at least question what is going on especially after the gov't pretty much said as much.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #1505 on:** April 08, 2020, 12:49:37 PM »

Well, the numbers are appearing to be leveling off right now in he US.

utee94 · « **Reply #1506 on:** April 08, 2020, 12:51:26 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on April 08, 2020, 12:41:36 PM

I just saw something set to me on messenger

"Skydiver who forgot parachute dies of Corona Virus"

Was it Seattlion? It was Seattlion wasn't it?

utee94 · « **Reply #1507 on:** April 08, 2020, 12:51:50 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 12:49:37 PM

Well, the numbers are appearing to be leveling off right now in he US.

More folks remembering their parachutes these days?

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1508 on:** April 08, 2020, 12:55:42 PM »

"In response to the COVID-19 situation, the University of Wisconsin is cancelling all youth programs through August 15, 2020. This includes all Badger Sports Camps for summer 2020. The main priority of our programs continues to be the health, safety and wellness of our participants, student-athletes, coaches, administrators and staff as we continue to monitor all developing and relevant information on the COVID-19 virus."

FearlessF · « **Reply #1509 on:** April 08, 2020, 01:00:42 PM »

but you can still vote in an election!

Geolion91 · « **Reply #1510 on:** April 08, 2020, 01:08:17 PM »

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on April 08, 2020, 12:33:05 PM

I just found this a few mins ago from the New York Post

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/

So if someone dies in a car accident that has tested positive for COVID, we are counting that as a COVID death. That is completely wrong and is inflating the number of actual COVID CAUSED deaths.

The bottom line is that the government and the media are playing fast and loose with the truth. I do agree that this virus is serious and we need to take steps to prevent it from spreading. My point is that the last thing we need is the government or the media spreading false hoods in the process. I want clear and credible information, not something to sensationalize the issue.

Your example and the one from the article are completely different and you example takes it out of context. I don't believe for a minute that any coroner is going to examine a fatality from an accident and write on the death certificate that cause of death was a virus. I also highly doubt that anyone is going to bother testing them.

I also don't believe "Mike". It's also unlikely he even works in a medical examiner's office. There's no way to verify him, at all.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #1511 on:** April 08, 2020, 01:30:27 PM »

Also--most numbers are not federal numbers to begin with. Most of the numbers are tabulated by states, counties, etc and roll up to the feds.

In fact, one of the issues is that we may be UNDERCOUNTING deaths.

From the NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html

From here (see Apr 6 update down the page): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

"An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee"

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

utee94

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

bayareabadger

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

NorthernOhioBuckeye

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

FearlessF

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

NorthernOhioBuckeye

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

utee94

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

utee94

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

FearlessF

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Geolion91

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas