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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1484 on: April 08, 2020, 08:54:09 AM »
Could be real, but a lots of the states/municipalities tend to use Tuesdays to "catch up" on reporting for events that transpired over the weekend.  If we wanted to smooth the data for better trend analysis, we might should be using something like a 3-day rolling average.  But honestly I think it's pretty pointless to try to get a daily snapshot anyway, the data is much more stable about a week later. 

Anyway, overall there is some good news here.  Hopefully we see the peak sooner than expected, and the area under the curve remains lower than expected.
My research has indicated this to be highly possible. I mean, people take Sundays off.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1485 on: April 08, 2020, 09:33:19 AM »
Could be real, but a lots of the states/municipalities tend to use Tuesdays to "catch up" on reporting for events that transpired over the weekend.  If we wanted to smooth the data for better trend analysis, we might should be using something like a 3-day rolling average.  But honestly I think it's pretty pointless to try to get a daily snapshot anyway, the data is much more stable about a week later. 

Anyway, overall there is some good news here.  Hopefully we see the peak sooner than expected, and the area under the curve remains lower than expected.
To add to your point, I believe that some hospitals/states are inflating the number of deaths of COVID. That is to say that they are counting people that die of other ailments and have tested positive for COVID as dying from COVID instead of dying WITH COVID. I read an article about this in Italy. The Minister of the Dept of Health in Italy stated that 88% of the people that were reported to having died from COVID, in fact died of other ailments and simply tested positive for COVID. In other words, there is a difference from dying OF COVID from dying WITH COVID.

The analogy is that someone with COVID and shows no symptoms, commits suicide. There are accusations that these people are counted in the deaths from COVID when obviously their death was self induced. Based on the way that hospitals and states like to use statistics to fund things, it is not inconceivable that there are those that would engage in this activity to drive up the numbers.

Another thing that would affect the R naught value would be the number of people that most likely either have or have had the virus but were never tested. I have heard and read quite a bit that speculates this number of people could be much higher than some are predicting. Until we can test everyone, I don't believe we will ever know the real R naught value.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1486 on: April 08, 2020, 09:37:10 AM »
My very preliminary take on this is we're very close to the hump now and things are going to start looking better this week.  I also think folks should be able to reopen under certain guidelines about mid month, while the elderly should be isolated along with anyone sick otherwise of course.

I'm starting to dip toes in buying some stocks again.

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1487 on: April 08, 2020, 10:03:35 AM »
Publix here gives you a $10 gift card if you get a free flu shot from them.  I'm down with that.
   Right now the only way I'm down with that is if a team of NFL lineman catch me and sit  :bluegrab:
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

GopherRock

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1488 on: April 08, 2020, 10:04:16 AM »

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1489 on: April 08, 2020, 10:08:09 AM »
Religion talk is worse than politics.

Stop.

“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1490 on: April 08, 2020, 10:16:06 AM »
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

Cincydawg

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1492 on: April 08, 2020, 10:26:26 AM »
My very preliminary take on this is we're very close to the hump now and things are going to start looking better this week.  I also think folks should be able to reopen under certain guidelines about mid month, while the elderly should be isolated along with anyone sick otherwise of course.

I'm starting to dip toes in buying some stocks again.

Yeah I'm not sure what the assumptions on the IMHE model are, regarding when we move out of quarantine, when we end social distancing, when we resume large public gatherings, etc.  I didn't see those assumptions when I checked into it briefly a week or so back, and then stopped digging because I got sidetracked.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1493 on: April 08, 2020, 10:31:07 AM »
Note that R0 value is not an independent variable. R0 can be reduced if you do things like... Cancel/ban large public gatherings, mandate stay-at-home orders for nonessential business, encourage [and people comply] with social distancing in general. 

What I fear is that all the people who thought we were overreacting to COVID-19, if the final death toll comes in under 100K, will use that as evidence that we overreacted, rather than recognizing that our reaction is the REASON it stayed below 100K. 

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1494 on: April 08, 2020, 10:32:15 AM »
CD - thanx evidently Bryant pranked someone,wonder what he did.Reminds me a few years back when Kyrie Irving did his Uncle Drew disguise.Pepsi MAX went to a pick-up game in Bloomfield, NJ pretending to shoot a documentary on a basketball player named "Kevin." When his Uncle Drew came into the game, some magical things happened


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DnKOc6FISU
« Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 10:42:55 AM by MrNubbz »
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1495 on: April 08, 2020, 10:33:21 AM »
What I fear is that all the people who thought we were overreacting to COVID-19, if the final death toll comes in under 100K, will use that as evidence that we overreacted, rather than recognizing that our reaction is the REASON it stayed below 100K.
You can't fix stupid.
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ELA

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1496 on: April 08, 2020, 10:39:44 AM »
HA!"Cut it out or I'll pound you"!!! Classic
Our kids quote Lucy's violent lines from that all the time, and we have to qualify, because they don't exactly translate to kids programming now.

They also wanted to watch Pinocchio on Disney+ at one point, the whole Pleasure Island scene is just kids smoking cigars, gambling, drinking beer.

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1497 on: April 08, 2020, 10:41:06 AM »
What I fear is that all the people who thought we were overreacting to COVID-19, if the final death toll comes in under 100K, will use that as evidence that we overreacted, rather than recognizing that our reaction is the REASON it stayed below 100K.
I think that's the reasoning of a lot of folks - stay the course and repeat that when we are out of the woods,when that happens
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

 

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