header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: #16 Michigan (3-2, 5-2) at #7 Penn State (4-0, 7-0) Post Game

 (Read 3307 times)

medinabuckeye1

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 4253
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #28 on: October 16, 2019, 05:02:08 PM »
As I see it, this is do-or-die time for the 2019 Wolverines.  

Obviously the natives are restless and things don't look so good so far but the good news is that Michigan still controls their own destiny to AT LEAST the B1G Championship and probably to a national title.  However, if they lose to Penn State they lose not only control of their own destiny but also any realistic chance of a B1G Championship.  Here is why:

The loss to Wisconsin doesn't hurt the Wolverines too much because it is non-divisional.  The B1G tiebreakers are H2H then divisional record so as long as Michigan wins the rest of their B1G games, they are guaranteed to go to the B1GCG.  

If the Wolverines lose to Penn State that changes in a big way.  Even assuming that they won out after the loss in Happy Valley, they would need all of the following to happen to get to the B1GCG (shortest possible route):

  • Penn State would have to lose at least two games (most likely tOSU and either MSU or MN).  
  • Ohio State would have to lose at least one game before playing Michigan (most likely would be UW).  

In that case tOSU, PSU, and M would all tie at 7-2 in the B1G:
  • tOSU lost to UW and M, 7-2 B1G, 1-1 vs PSU and M, 5-1 divisional
  • PSU lost to tOSU and MSU, 7-2 B1G, 1-1 vs tOSU and M, 4-2 divisional
  • M lost to UW and PSU, 7-2 B1G, 1-1 vs tOSU and PSU, 5-1 divisional

Tiebreakers:
  • H2H2H:  All tied 1-1, move to the next
  • Divisional Record:  This eliminates PSU (4-2) and leaves it between tOSU (5-1) and M (5-1) and Michigan wins that based on the two-team H2H.  

None of those things are impossible or even extremely unlikely but the sum of all of those things is EXTRAORDINARILY unlikely.  Ie, I could see Michigan winning out or I could see tOSU losing to Wisconsin or I could see PSU losing to MSU or I could see tOSU beating PSU but the chances of all of those things happening are close to zero.  

The series:
Oddly, these two teams never played prior to PSU joining the league.  
  • Michigan won the first meeting in Ann Arbor in 1993.  
  • Penn State won three straight from 1994-1996.  
  • Michigan took over winning nine straight over 11 years from 1997-2007 (they didn't play in 2003/4).  
  • Penn State won four straight over six years from 2008-2013 (they didn't play in 2011/2).  
  • Michigan won three straight from 2014-2016
  • Penn State won in 2017
  • Michigan won in 2018

What is weird is that they haven't had a close game in quite a while and they haven't had a close game when both teams were good in over a decade:
  • Michigan won by 35 last year
  • Penn State won by 29 in 2017
  • Michigan won by 39 in 2016
  • Penn State won by 12 in 2014 but they finished 7-6 while Michigan finished 5-7
  • Penn State won by 3 in 2013 but they finished 7-5 while Michigan finished 7-6
  • They did not play in 2011/12
  • Penn State won by 10 in 2010 but both teams finished 7-6
  • Penn State won by 25 in 2009
  • Penn State won by 29 in 2008
  • Michigan won by 5 in 2007 and both teams finished 9-4
  • Michigan won by a TD in 2006 and finished 11-2 while PSU finished 9-4
  • Michigan won by 2 in 2005 (huge upset).  The Lions finished 11-1 while Michigan finished 7-5
  • They did not play in 2003/04
  • Michigan won by a FG in 2002 and finished 10-3 while PSU finished 9-4
  • Michigan won by 20 in 2001
  • Michigan won by 22 in 2000
  • Michigan won by 4 in 1999 and finished 10-2 while PSU finished 10-3


The last time they played a close game and both finished with 10+ wins was 20 years ago.  

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 830
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #29 on: October 16, 2019, 11:06:08 PM »
According to Urban Meyer, the white out us the toughest environment in college football. 

BTN Urban analysis


Temp430

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1136
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2019, 08:01:50 AM »
Michigan's offense is by and large the same athletes that shellacked Penn State last year with the biggest difference being a new OC and scheme.  Michigan's defense has had to work through some injuries, primarily on the DL, and is playing better now.   Can Michigan win in a white outed Beaver Saturday night given the problems discussed elsewhere?  I think they can but I'm a homer.

Go Blue!
A decade of Victory over Penn State.

All in since 1969

MrNubbz

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8869
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2019, 08:49:34 AM »
Even with out those injuries they were at least a rung below last years defense.UW got revenge at home and I'd be shocked if the Ninnies don't do the same.The Passing game has got to click now for M
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 830
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2019, 09:12:59 AM »
Michigan's offense is by and large the same athletes that shellacked Penn State last year with the biggest difference being a new OC and scheme.  Michigan's defense has had to work through some injuries, primarily on the DL, and is playing better now.  Can Michigan win in a white outed Beaver Saturday night given the problems discussed elsewhere?  I think they can but I'm a homer.

Go Blue!
To be fair, Penn State's defense is better than it was last year.  Almost everyone returns, plus they got a few guys back that were injured in the UM game.  Overall the secondary is quite a bit stronger, the linebackers are MUCH stronger, and the DLine is also better.

I've seen a lot of Michigan folks talking about how they have more talented athletes than Penn State.  I disagree with this.  Michigan is a more veteran team, but I'm very confident that Penn State has a more athletic team.  However, coaching and experience trumps raw athleticism, IMO.  Penn State is the 2nd youngest team in the B1G after Purdue, and is certainly vulnerable to trickeration or blown assignments.  Also, they play an attacking style defense that is high risk, high reward.  In a tight game like this, one or two big plays will make the difference.  Penn State is certainly vulnerable to the big play, and the Michigan offense will have to capitalize on that.  Gattis runs the Moorhead offense, which relies on the big play.  If everything clicks, Michigan could certainly win comfortably, but it won't be because their athletes are heads and shoulders above Penn State's.

Mdot21

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 5430
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2019, 11:30:00 AM »
I've seen a lot of Michigan folks talking about how they have more talented athletes than Penn State.  I disagree with this.  Michigan is a more veteran team, but I'm very confident that Penn State has a more athletic team.  However, coaching and experience trumps raw athleticism, IMO.  Penn State is the 2nd youngest team in the B1G after Purdue, and is certainly vulnerable to trickeration or blown assignments.  Also, they play an attacking style defense that is high risk, high reward.  In a tight game like this, one or two big plays will make the difference.  Penn State is certainly vulnerable to the big play, and the Michigan offense will have to capitalize on that.  Gattis runs the Moorhead offense, which relies on the big play.  If everything clicks, Michigan could certainly win comfortably, but it won't be because their athletes are heads and shoulders above Penn State's.
Disagree. I do not see the athletes at WR on Penn State's team that Michigan has. DPJ is the best athlete on just about any field he's on. He's just as fast if not faster than KJ Hamler- and he's 5 inches taller and 40 pounds heavier. Might not be as shifty- but in a straight-line- he's just as fast if faster. Ronnie Bell in the slot can really run. Tarik and Nico are the twin towers- both big, athletic, rangy receivers. Neither team has elite explosive RB's.

Michigan's best athletes and assets on offense- it's WR's - are being severely held back by terrible offensive coaching and terrible QB play. The play-calling and coaching has been atrocious, and Shea Patterson has been terrible. They have 3 legitimate NFL draft picks at WR- something Penn State doesn't have- and a fourth WR that's very athletic in Ronnie Bell - and they can't get these guys the football. It's a gd joke.

I think both defenses are very athletic. Michigan's defense is loaded with athletes. Cam McGrone at LB, Josh Uche at OLB/DE, Aidan Hutchinson at DE, Vert Hill at CB, Ambry Thomas at CB, Dax Hill at NB/S- all supreme athletes for their positions. They are all sure-fire NFL draft picks.

PSUTroll

  • Walk On
  • *
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 11
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2019, 11:33:55 AM »
Michigan's offense is by and large the same athletes that shellacked Penn State last year with the biggest difference being a new OC and scheme.  Michigan's defense has had to work through some injuries, primarily on the DL, and is playing better now.  Can Michigan win in a white outed Beaver Saturday night given the problems discussed elsewhere?  I think they can but I'm a homer.

Go Blue!

The final score last year was 42-7 so obviously Michigan’s offense “shellacked” Penn State’s defense… but wait, did they?

With a minute left in the third quarter the score was 14-0. Didn’t really seem like an offensive shellacking then, with most of the game over. At that same point I don’t know that PSU’s offense had any first downs. It wasn’t many, if they did. Late in the third quarter PSU’s defense was getting tired and their offense was getting desperate. That’s where the final score came from. That game was a dominate performance by Michigan’s defense, not their offense. Speaking of that defense, a lot of Michigan fans seemed to miss how much of a loss the departing players would be at the end of last year.

Also I agree with BBTS assessment that this is a much better PSU defense. This year defense is also legion. They are platooning tons of guys and not seeing much drop off. The whole team seems much more complete than it’s been in a long time, in my opinion.  The QB is still very much a work in progress though. Has a ton of potential but we will have to wait and see which Clifford shows up.

Michigan has turned the ball over a ton this year and PSU hasn’t really at all. I think most fans discount how much luck is involved in sports. Perhaps Michigan has just been unlucky and PSU has been lucky… and we are due for a correction to averages that could land on PSU’s collective face. On the other hand, maybe that’s just who these teams have been up to this point. If there is a large turnover advantage in PSU’s favor we may have our forth blowout in a row.

My best guess is trading blowouts isn’t going to last forever and PSU wins a closer one. If PSU loses and I have to read about it from Dudkd and Temp then a great cloud of sadness will descend upon the PSUtroll. ;)




Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 830
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2019, 11:40:11 AM »
Disagree. I do not see the athletes at WR on Penn State's team that Michigan has. DPJ is the best athlete on just about any field he's on. He's just as fast if not faster than KJ Hamler- and he's 5 inches taller and 40 pounds heavier. Might not be as shifty- but in a straight-line- he's just as fast if faster. Ronnie Bell in the slot can really run. Tarik and Nico are the twin towers- both big, athletic, rangy receivers. Neither team has elite explosive RB's.

Michigan's best athletes and assets on offense- it's WR's - are being severely held back by terrible offensive coaching and terrible QB play. The play-calling and coaching has been atrocious, and Shea Patterson has been terrible. They have 3 legitimate NFL draft picks at WR- something Penn State doesn't have- and a fourth WR that's very athletic in Ronnie Bell - and they can't get these guys the football. It's a gd joke.

I think both defenses are very athletic. Michigan's defense is loaded with athletes. Cam McGrone at LB, Josh Uche at OLB/DE, Aidan Hutchinson at DE, Vert Hill at CB, Ambry Thomas at CB, Dax Hill at NB/S- all supreme athletes for their positions. They are all sure-fire NFL draft picks.
KJ Hamler is the 3rd fastest wide receiver on the PSU team.  However, he is super quick and shifty.

The fastest guys are Chisena (WR), Journey Brown (RB), and Drew Harlaub (WR). 

Micah Parsons (LB) and Jason Oweh (DL) each run sub 4.4's.  

Clifford runs a 4.5.


PSUTroll

  • Walk On
  • *
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 11
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2019, 12:59:31 PM »
Temp, I’ve got to say, all season I’ve been wonder if someone hijacked your account and started posting in your place. It’s been mostly nothing but perfectly reasonable takes on PSU all year. What gives?

MaximumSam

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 7822
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #37 on: October 17, 2019, 01:18:30 PM »
I see Hill and McGrone got more run on defense after the Wisconsin game, where frankly Michigan looked out of their depth athletically.  The biggest issue for Michigan is that an athletic team should be able to bust some big plays just from being athletic.  I know all the SPARQ scores are great, but haven't seen a whole lot of playmaking other than from Ronnie Bell.

Temp430

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1136
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #38 on: October 17, 2019, 01:57:19 PM »
Temp, I’ve got to say, all season I’ve been wonder if someone hijacked your account and started posting in your place. It’s been mostly nothing but perfectly reasonable takes on PSU all year. What gives?
Michigan-Penn State: Can Michigan Start a New Streak?

Michigan will wear white pants to this year's white out.

I'm fine.  Penn State has looked good.  The win at Iowa, at night no less, was impressive. They've found a solid replacement for McSorely.  Despite the loss of McSorely's luck I think Penn State is better this year.  It'll be a good game.  And I wouldn't read too much into Wisconsin's ass kicking. 


A decade of Victory over Penn State.

All in since 1969

Mdot21

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 5430
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #39 on: October 17, 2019, 03:50:45 PM »
I see Hill and McGrone got more run on defense after the Wisconsin game, where frankly Michigan looked out of their depth athletically.  The biggest issue for Michigan is that an athletic team should be able to bust some big plays just from being athletic.  I know all the SPARQ scores are great, but haven't seen a whole lot of playmaking other than from Ronnie Bell.
McGrone is hands down their best 'backer and Dax Hill their best nickel and he's probably aslo their best safety. Why they waited so long to give them playing time- beyond me.

Ronnie Bell has the most targets. By a lot. You realize were 6 games into the season and Nico only has 13 catches, Tarik has 15, and DPJ has 11. That is pathetic.

Bell plays in the slot and gets the least amount of attention in coverage and runs the shortest routes and gets the most targets from Patterson. It's almost like Patterson is afraid to throw the ball down the field and let Nico/Tarik/DPJ make a play.

Patterson has been terrible and this coaching and offensive play-calling is atrocious.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 830
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #40 on: October 17, 2019, 06:53:19 PM »

Michigan's best athletes and assets on offense- it's WR's - are being severely held back by terrible offensive coaching and terrible QB play. The play-calling and coaching has been atrocious, and Shea Patterson has been terrible. They have 3 legitimate NFL draft picks at WR- something Penn State doesn't have- and a fourth WR that's very athletic in Ronnie Bell - and they can't get these guys the football. It's a gd joke.


Why would you assume that Penn State doesn't have 3 legit draft picks at wide receiver?  KJ Hamler will certainly be drafted this year, but the rest of Penn State's starters are underclassman.

IMO, your best wide receiver is Bell.  The other guys have a lot of hype, but the numbers aren't there.  I don't put that blame fully on Patterson or the coaches.  Those other wide receivers need to step up as well.

With that said, Urban Meyer says a new offensive system should take 5-6 weeks before it is fully implemented.  If that's the case, there may be great improvement in the Michigan offense.  If that happens, maybe we will finally see :-*"the B1G's best receivers":88: instead of empty fanfare.

MrNubbz

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8869
  • Liked:
Re: #16 Michigan (5-1, 3-1) at #7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #41 on: October 17, 2019, 07:02:06 PM »
Ronnie Bell has the most targets. By a lot. You realize were 6 games into the season and Nico only has 13 catches, Tarik has 15, and DPJ has 11. That is pathetic.
Is this what Jimmah means by mediocracy?There is enough froth between the programs also,hope it's a good one
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

 

Support the Site!