Here are some of my thoughts:
Penn State DLine vs. the Michigan OLine:
Michigan's offensive line may be the best PSU has faced all season. Although the Penn State pass rush is getting a lot of attention, I think it has been unwarranted. Penn State only had consistent success rushing the passer against Purdue. The 10 sacks in the game really skew the numbers. I think it is far more likely that Penn State will struggle to get to the QB in this game, much as they did against Pitt. However, I do think Michigan will struggle to run the ball. The Penn state rush defense is very real, but keep in mind that Gross-Matos didn't register a single tackle against Pitt.
Scoring: Michigan +7
Penn State Oline vs. the Michigan DLine:
Michigan has a very talented defensive line, probably the best Penn State has faced so far this year. However, Penn State has the best offensive line they have had in the Franklin era. They've also had experience against tough DLines when they faced Iowa and Pitt, which is invaluable. Still, they aren't playing quite to the level they need to be just yet.
Scoring: Penn State +3
Penn State Rushing O vs. Michigan Rush D
I do think Penn State will have some success with running the ball. Penn State doesn't have a Jonathan Taylor, but they have enough guys to have some success.
Penn State's biggest ace in the hole is the development of the power running game with Noah Cain. Cain reminds me of a bigger version of Mike Hart. He always falls forward and should help PSU control the clock. He will split time with 3 other backs, but he will probably be the main guy in the fourth quarter.
Scoring: Penn State +10
Penn State Pass O vs. Michigan Pass D
Sometimes Clifford's nerves get the best of him, and he becomes a shell of himself. This happened in his first possession in his first game, when he faced a good Pitt pass rush, and the entire first quarter of Kinnick at night. He can be rattled. I am certain that Michigan will be able to rattle him, especially early on. He does seem to settle down and to become more composed as the game goes on.
Michigan loves to blitz guys. Clifford is a student of the game, and absolutely LOVES when teams blitz. He's a master at finding the opening left by a blitzing player. However, he does struggle a bit if a team shows blitz and then backs out of it when the ball is snapped. Calm Clifford is very accurate, very safe with the football, and great in the RPO. Rattled Clifford hasn't turned the ball over too much, but hasn't moved the ball, either.
With all of that said, Penn State does have the talent to make some big plays in pass game. A hallmark of the PSU offense is to maximize explosive plays, and they certainly have the personal to do it. Clifford will settle in and be able to move the ball a few times.
Scoring: Penn State +7
Michigan Offense vs. Penn State defense:
Patterson and Harbaugh have really taken some unfair criticism this year. Patterson hasn't played as well as many thought he would, but he hasn't been a bottom feeder, either. I think I heard he may be playing injured? Also, Michigan guys, Wisconsin is a damn good team. It's ok to admit that a team other than Ohio State may be better than you are on any given Saturday.
I also hate meaningless stats. Harbaugh has never won as an underdog. So what? I don't think that has anything to do with this game. It's a different year, a different group of players, and a different coaching staff. Michigan will certainly win as an underdog, and probably sooner than later.
Rant over.
Michigan's offense hasn't exactly been putting fear in the hearts of opposing defenses. Shea has been injured or not playing well, their wide receivers are all hurt, and they've had a bit of a turnover problem. All 3 of those things could easily be fixed in a single game. Maybe Shea is finally healthy, and maybe he gets in the zone early and goes wild. I believe that turnovers are often as much about luck as they are about mistakes. It is quite likely that Michigan could have no turnovers in this game. Shea should have some decent time in the pocket, too. They've also had 6 games to get used to the new offense.
The white out should work some magic, but Michigan is simply too talented to not overcome some of the aforementioned problems.
Michigan +10
If this game comes down to special teams, I think PSU has better special teams across the board.
Penn State +3
Final Score:
Good guys 23, Ole Mitten Running Harbaughs 17*
*Trying to project this game is madness. One or two big plays will make the difference between winning and losing.
