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Topic: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game

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Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #42 on: October 01, 2018, 12:37:18 AM »
No, he wasn't #1 overall, and I get how that's different. Still, Ghoston was a hype monster of his own.
I agree that Gary's pass rush isn't otherworldly. I'm just not sure I need to care. Because his run defense very well may be the ebst of any DE in the conference. And his pass rush is routinely a quarter-second behind the guy who actually gets the sack. So it's not nothing. It's just not all-world.
Michigan isn't suffering for pass rush. The defense isn't suffering at all. Gary is a big part of that. If he's never more, he's plenty awesome. Enjoy him while he's here.
I'm not knocking him. He's a great player. He'll be a 1st round pick for sure.
I just think that Michigan's DL is extremely strong at DE if you include Josh Uche in that convo. Would be insane really if Villain was healthy.
DT's? Not so much. Moving Gary there and getting Solomon back in a few weeks would jump start that DT spot in a hurry. I'd go...
SDE: rotate evenly with Kwity Paye and Hutchinson
3tech: Gary with Dwumfour as the back-up
NT: Solomon with Mone as the back-up
WDE: Winovich with Uche as the back-up
Then on obvious pass rush downs go speed package.
Winoivch at SDE, Paye at 3-tech, Gary at NT, and Uche at WDE. Good luck blocking that.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2018, 12:48:15 AM »
New topic, aaaand ... sigh:


https://mobile.twitter.com/jakeb4813/status/1046491152692785153

I'm not a conspiracy-ist, either. And maybe it is just outrageously bad luck or a structural detail of the Michigan D that innocently leads to fewer flags after holds. 
But on its own it is highly improbable by chance/coincidence (...) Add to that a DL as rampant as Michigan's every year and those already-low odds plummet by at least an extra factor of 2 to 10.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2018, 01:03:41 AM by Anonymous Coward »

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #44 on: October 01, 2018, 12:51:08 AM »
And, whatever the answer is, it's certainly not that the penalties aren't called because Michigan's DL gets held less often than other DLs. 
Elite DLs get held more, not the same or less.

Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #45 on: October 01, 2018, 01:34:26 AM »
that really pisses me off. If I was the Michigan AD I'm flying to Chicago right now to meet with Delaney. Unreal and unacceptable.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2018, 09:40:46 AM »
I think it's OK for Michigan to politely demand an answer. And, since that answer will almost assuredly not be "oh we're just systematically biased," it's also OK/smart to discuss a way to test or confirm the answer they do get.
For example, if the Big Ten says it's just outrageously bad luck/coincidence, then Michigan should expect reversion to the mean - maybe even quickly. If the Big Ten asks its refs and says it may be more due to something structural about Michigan's defense, then Michigan can go back and count holding penalties when they were/weren't doing that thing (to confirm).
Either way, nothing bad can come from going to the Big Ten and saying "hey, here's a weird/concerning observation; let's talk."
« Last Edit: October 01, 2018, 09:42:48 AM by Anonymous Coward »

bayareabadger

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2018, 10:41:15 AM »
And, whatever the answer is, it's certainly not that the penalties aren't called because Michigan's DL gets held less often than other DLs.
Elite DLs get held more, not the same or less.
So here's the real question to me, why are not good defenses drawing so many holds?
Like if OSU/UW/PSU were at the top and Mich was the bottom, that's fishy. But OSU is bottom half, UW somewhat better, IU and Minnesota up high?

Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2018, 10:53:02 AM »
So here's the real question to me, why are not good defenses drawing so many holds?
Like if OSU/UW/PSU were at the top and Mich was the bottom, that's fishy. But OSU is bottom half, UW somewhat better, IU and Minnesota up high?
look at the total holds per 100 plays defended.

Wisconsin is at 1.40. Michigan at .76. Not quite but damn near twice as many.

One would think the better the front 7 the more holding calls they'd draw. Michigan has arguably had THE BEST front 7 in the entire conference over that time span yet they are at the very bottom.

OSU is at 1.27, Michigan State is at 1.23, Penn State is at 1.17. And Michigan is all the way down dead last at .76. They aren't even getting ONE call per 100 defensive plays. Absolutely crazy. Ridiculous. Unacceptable.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2018, 10:58:30 AM by Mdot21 »

SuperMario

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2018, 11:54:26 AM »
So here's the real question to me, why are not good defenses drawing so many holds?
Like if OSU/UW/PSU were at the top and Mich was the bottom, that's fishy. But OSU is bottom half, UW somewhat better, IU and Minnesota up high?
This was my first thought as well. I think(with no validity or facts behind my thought) the answer is keeping games competitive.  Let's be honest, sports are about money now. Influencing games to have or keep more viewers generates more $. I watched the Browns have a game literally stolen from them yesterday and it reminded me there's no reason to be attached at a deep level because the outcome is influenced. 
The experience should be the reason to watch, not the outcome. 

ELA

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Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
« Reply #50 on: October 01, 2018, 01:07:58 PM »
A conspiracy theory against at worst the 2nd biggest money generator in the league fails to even get off the ground.

That's also only accepted holding calls.  I'd be far more interested in seeing total holding calls.  First, it would make sense that an elite defense would have a lower percentage of called holdings accepted because there's a higher chance of a play being made elsewhere.  Either one player getting held while another player got a sack, or still getting an incomplete pass on a 3rd down.  Something like that.  Second, an elite defensive line presumably would cause teams to scheme differently.  Why is Indiana at the top of that list and Michigan at the bottom?  Possibly because the gameplan against Michigan is that you better get that ball out quickly to try and negate that DL.  Third, maybe there's some amount of coaching involved there.  Just like you see more and more basketball player flail their heads back driving down the lane, you see more and more defensive linemen throw their hands up in the air, drawing fouls where (a) one may not exist or (b) one may exist, but would not have been seen but for the arms flailing.  Or maybe it's just dumb luck.

SuperMario

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Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
« Reply #51 on: October 01, 2018, 03:04:12 PM »
A conspiracy theory against at worst the 2nd biggest money generator in the league fails to even get off the ground.

That's also only accepted holding calls.  I'd be far more interested in seeing total holding calls.  First, it would make sense that an elite defense would have a lower percentage of called holdings accepted because there's a higher chance of a play being made elsewhere.  Either one player getting held while another player got a sack, or still getting an incomplete pass on a 3rd down.  Something like that.  Second, an elite defensive line presumably would cause teams to scheme differently.  Why is Indiana at the top of that list and Michigan at the bottom?  Possibly because the gameplan against Michigan is that you better get that ball out quickly to try and negate that DL.  Third, maybe there's some amount of coaching involved there.  Just like you see more and more basketball player flail their heads back driving down the lane, you see more and more defensive linemen throw their hands up in the air, drawing fouls where (a) one may not exist or (b) one may exist, but would not have been seen but for the arms flailing.  Or maybe it's just dumb luck.
I think you need to go back and look at the post. It distinguishes between accepted and total per 100 snaps and the numbers are pretty glaring. 
I don't think any of your explanations are reasonable. If you're looking at one game, then maybe, but over the course of 2 1/2 seasons you think everyone is just game planning better for Michigan than Indiana? Or Coaching? C'mon. We're not talking about a small difference here. We're talking the average is 49.8% higher than Michigan's average per 100 plays. That's a significant difference. 

bayareabadger

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Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
« Reply #52 on: October 01, 2018, 03:50:32 PM »
I think you need to go back and look at the post. It distinguishes between accepted and total per 100 snaps and the numbers are pretty glaring.
I don't think any of your explanations are reasonable. If you're looking at one game, then maybe, but over the course of 2 1/2 seasons you think everyone is just game planning better for Michigan than Indiana? Or Coaching? C'mon. We're not talking about a small difference here. We're talking the average is 49.8% higher than Michigan's average per 100 plays. That's a significant difference.

It’s significant once you cut it down to a rate like that. The difference between first and last is less than a hold every two games (something like .44 per game).  So we’re talking fewer than five penalty yards a game,  and since the majority of holds probably don’t wipe out significant plays,  maybe one, at most two extra big plays allowed in a year.
Is that significant? Or  does it just tell us there aren’t that many holds in the average big 10 game?
( this is an interesting look at how data presentation can often and inflame our passions, though I suppose ranking show that to us all the time, if we’re willing to look)
« Last Edit: October 01, 2018, 04:00:27 PM by bayareabadger »

ELA

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Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
« Reply #53 on: October 01, 2018, 03:51:26 PM »
I think you need to go back and look at the post. It distinguishes between accepted and total per 100 snaps and the numbers are pretty glaring.
I don't think any of your explanations are reasonable. If you're looking at one game, then maybe, but over the course of 2 1/2 seasons you think everyone is just game planning better for Michigan than Indiana? Or Coaching? C'mon. We're not talking about a small difference here. We're talking the average is 49.8% higher than Michigan's average per 100 plays. That's a significant difference.

I didn't see that the bottom number was total called.  Then yes, that negates #1.
But no, who says that's game planning BETTER against Michigan?  I never said they were game planning better.  I said they were game planning different.  If you trust your OL to hold up you are going to game plan different than if you don't.  You are going to trust longer pass plays to hold up, you are going to trust your OL to establish the run game.  So while over the course of a game against Indiana you are probably going to hit more deep passes and successful runs, you are also putting yourself in position to get called for more holdings in the times you don't.  And yes, coaching.  Not better or worse coaching, but specifically coaching your defenders to throw their arms up (which I personally hate).
I'm not saying that one is legit, I'm just saying that is a far more reasonable explanation than actually thinking the Big Ten would have any sort of anti-OSU or UM or PSU bias.  That mere suggestion made me literally lol.  Maybe they hate money, and adding Rutgers was a purely football move.

SuperMario

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Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
« Reply #54 on: October 01, 2018, 03:59:09 PM »
It’s significant once you cut it down to a rate like that. The difference between first and last is less than a hold every two games (something like .44 per game).  So we’re talking fewer than five penalty yards a game,  and since the majority of holds probably don’t wipe out significant plays,  maybe one, at most two extra big plays allowed in a year.
 Is that significant?
( this is an interesting look at how data presentation can often and inflame our passions, though I suppose ranking show that to us all the time, if we’re willing to look)
Ha. You're certainly not wrong about any of what you posted. Maybe the timing was also perfect since the fan base is still wondering how Higdon was flagged for a bizarre holding call, where he was body slammed. 

SuperMario

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Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
« Reply #55 on: October 01, 2018, 04:05:37 PM »
I didn't see that the bottom number was total called.  Then yes, that negates #1.
But no, who says that's game planning BETTER against Michigan?  I never said they were game planning better.  I said they were game planning different.  If you trust your OL to hold up you are going to game plan different than if you don't.  You are going to trust longer pass plays to hold up, you are going to trust your OL to establish the run game.  So while over the course of a game against Indiana you are probably going to hit more deep passes and successful runs, you are also putting yourself in position to get called for more holdings in the times you don't.  And yes, coaching.  Not better or worse coaching, but specifically coaching your defenders to throw their arms up (which I personally hate).
I'm not saying that one is legit, I'm just saying that is a far more reasonable explanation than actually thinking the Big Ten would have any sort of anti-OSU or UM or PSU bias.  That mere suggestion made me literally lol.  Maybe they hate money, and adding Rutgers was a purely football move.
Any time Michigan fans think they have a legit gripe, your response is always "it can't be true because Michigan is a big money maker for the conference." In most cases, I understand your perspective, but that can't always be the out. On the flip side, I get it, some things are coincidence and the world is not out to get Michigan football.
Lastly, what's a reasonable explanation to one person may be unreasonable to another. I would argue, there's also big money in Michigan losses as well. Nowadays, media dollars are driven by both good an bad. Michigan losing to Appalachian State fed many media mouths for a long time. 

 

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