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Topic: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game

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Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2018, 08:06:24 PM »
Shea Patterson through 4 games.

709 passing yards, 70.1% completion, 8.5 Yards per attempt, 7 TD's and 1 INT.  It's two but I'm listing it at 1 because it really should be only 1 INT, bc the 2nd INT was 100% on that bum Sean McKeon. Rushing stats aren't there at all bc they haven't used him in any read option stuff, which kinda ticks me off because he can do that.

How does that compare to first 4 games of Speight's 2016? 875 passing yards, 63.1% completion, 7.6 Yards per attempt, and 9 TD's vs 1 INT.

Patterson has been more accurate and had higher YPA. This is despite Patterson being there maybe 7 months compared to Speight being in the system for 2 years. And this is despite Patterson playing with a horrible offensive line and really young receivers whereas Speight had a pretty good veteran OL and a WR corps that was very experienced with seniors Jake Butt, Jehu Chesson, and Amarah Darboh.

In conclusion...

Shea > Speight. By a lot.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2018, 09:04:07 PM »
I really liked 2016 Speight ... until Iowa. He was bad in Iowa, period, but that 4th quarter injury essentially ended his career. He never came back from that. And two weeks later versus OSU, with the Buckeyes incapable of scoring on that defense on their own, the injury bit us doubly and he gave up the game with 1 pick-6 and another INT that wasn't literally a pick-6 but for all intents and purposes was. 

I accept and understand that as just how devastating a QB injury can be. But eff. Would have been a playoff team otherwise.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2018, 09:53:35 PM »
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2018, 10:51:21 PM »
I think that could have been Marcel's favorite GIF on the internet

ELA

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2018, 11:15:57 AM »

#14 Michigan Wolverines (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-0, 1-2)
4:30 - Evanston, IL - FOX
Well, I said last week that Nebraska would serve as a good litmus test between Notre Dame's elite defense, and the lousy Western Michigan and SMU defenses.  In a weird way, if Michigan had simply looked good, I'd have an easier time drawing a conclusion than what just happened.  Michigan so thoroughly dominated both sides of the ball, that it makes me question whether Nebraska is just a lousy team in a traditional helmet.  I suspect they are worse than we thought, but there's no denying Michigan's performance.  For some reason, Karan Higdon never seems fully appreciated, but it's clear that when he's in there, this offense just looks better.  Is he a Day 1 NFL pick?  No, but he's an every down back, with big play capability, who is 2nd in conference in yards per carry, at 7.9.  They put up 56 points, and honestly the quarterbacks didn't have an overly impressive game.  The most promising thing may have been that unlike the Notre Dame game, the coaching staff allowed Patterson to have his way with the short passes.  Move the ball around, take what the defense gives you.  The 18 receptions were spread out among 10 targets.  The only "maybe" downside is that a week after his coming out party, I'd like to see Peoples-Jones remain an alpha in the passing game, and while he still made his impact in special teams, 1 catch for 10 yards isn't the follow up I was looking for.  The way the defense looked, you wonder if Northwestern will be able to move the ball at all, particularly now that their starting running back was forced to retire due to a medical condition.  Right off the bat, Nebraska's offensive line looked overmatched in a way you rarely see in a Big Ten game where Rutgers isn't involved.  Northwestern returned 4 starters from an offensive line that played well together down the stretch last year, a major reason for the pivot in their season, after being a swinging gate early.  So have they rolled that over into 2018?  Well sort of.  Their adjusted sack rate of 3.82% is 30th in the nation, #2 in the Big Ten.  But even with a talent like Larkin, their 3.2 ypc on rush attempts was worst in the conference.  So you have a projected first round NFL pick at quarterback with a line that has been the second best pass blocking unit, caveat for style of play getting the ball out quick, and you have the worst yards per carry in the conference, plus you just lost your starting tailback.  Clayton Thorson may break the NCAA record for pass attempts in a game.  He threw it 52 times in their loss to Akron, and may have to do something similar.  That's their only chance to stay in it, but if they start going three and out, that's also a recipe for it getting out of hand in a hurry too.  I think the Cats play closer to the team that I expected them to be when I picked this as a Northwestern win in the preseason, and hang around for a while, but I don't see any way they can keep up against this defense with a totally one dimensional offense.
MICHIGAN 33, NORTHWESTERN 21

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #19 on: September 26, 2018, 07:59:02 PM »
It was a really bad underthrow by McCaffrey and to the wrong shoulder. Thomas had to stop running and adjust to the ball, which let the safety and CB catch up and put a lick on him. Thomas had both of them smoked. Like flat out smoked. He blazed right by the coverage. McCaffrey doesn't have the strongest arm and I think that might've been an example of one of his weaknesses right there. That ball is thrown out in front of Thomas that's a TD. Thomas can F-L-Y.
Here it is for context:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PyNhifI5ds
I wouldn't call anything about it a bad throw. Not perfect. And, you're right, underthrown. But Ambry still had space and hands on it. Well hands second, first it hits him in the chest - also on him. If Ambry wants to be a great offensive player, that's a catch he's going to need to make.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2018, 08:40:25 PM by Anonymous Coward »

Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #20 on: September 26, 2018, 10:07:29 PM »
Here it is for context:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PyNhifI5ds
I wouldn't call anything about it a bad throw. Not perfect. And, you're right, underthrown. But Ambry still had space and hands on it. Well hands second, first it hits him in the chest - also on him. If Ambry wants to be a great offensive player, that's a catch he's going to need to make.
you just said it was underthrown. therefore it was a bad throw. an underthrow = a bad throw. it was a bad throw. period. watch the slow mo replay. Thomas had to break stride, stop running and turn his body around. The ball didn't hit him in the chest. It hit his shoulder pad. He got his hands on it after it bounced off his shoulder pad and he got hit almost immediately. The only reason he got hit was because the ball was poorly thrown and Ambry had to stop and adjust which let the defender who had been smoked gain ground. Would've been a very difficult catch for an experienced receiver. Basically impossible catch for a CB who gets maybe a couple reps all week in practice at receiver moonlights a few snaps a game at receiver.

https://youtu.be/6JboPgRozok?t=37m8s

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #21 on: September 26, 2018, 11:26:11 PM »
Bah. No. Saying that a throw, if ever underthrown, is bad is the same as saying any throw that isn't perfect is bad. 
For example, in other situations QBs often underthrow deep, wide open WRs on purpose to avoid an uncatchable overthrow. The QBs job is to deliver a catchable ball. Any catchable deep ball is good enough to not be called bad.
This wasn't a perfect throw. But it hit Ambry in the chest. The throw was "good enough." The catch was not.
I'm sure Ambry will get better at this / hope so / look forward to t.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2018, 11:28:58 PM by Anonymous Coward »

Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #22 on: September 27, 2018, 12:03:08 AM »
Bah. No. Saying that a throw, if ever underthrown, is bad is the same as saying any throw that isn't perfect is bad.
For example, in other situations QBs often underthrow deep, wide open WRs on purpose to avoid an uncatchable overthrow. The QBs job is to deliver a catchable ball. Any catchable deep ball is good enough to not be called bad.
This wasn't a perfect throw. But it hit Ambry in the chest. The throw was "good enough." The catch was not.
I'm sure Ambry will get better at this / hope so / look forward to t.
It was a bad throw. We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this. Bad and mediocre QB's underthrow deep. Why? Because they are bad or mediocre.
Good and great QB's? They hit the receiver in stride on a deep ball.
The throw hit his shoulder pad. Not his chest. It was a pretty bad throw. Not sure McCaffrey has the arm to make that throw.
Michigan USED to have QB's that hit deep balls accurately. Shea can do it. Why they don't try it more with him is beyond me. Henne had a great connection with Manningham on those sort of throws. Below are examples of good throws on a deep ball. You have to put the ball out in front of the receiver right in his bread basket in stride. Those are good deep throws.

https://youtu.be/bR2b2BI6sxg?t=5m47s

https://youtu.be/gpmczVHz4r8?t=3m52s

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2018, 12:08:17 AM »
I rewatched it. It hit him in the numbers. Even if that weren't true, since he had his eye on it the whole time, the ball hitting Ambry's shoulder and hands doesn't let him off either. The ball got to the space where he could make a play. He didn't.
We disagree. It's fine. Both players are playing for the future and could be great.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2018, 12:28:23 AM by Anonymous Coward »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2018, 12:57:36 AM »

I miss his unbounded Wildcat fandom and optimism.

Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #25 on: September 27, 2018, 12:58:23 AM »
I rewatched it. It hit him in the numbers. Even if that weren't true, since he had his eye on it the whole time, the ball hitting Ambry's shoulder and hands doesn't let him off either. The ball got to the space where he could make a play. He didn't.
We disagree. It's fine. Both players are playing for the future and could be great.
I think McCaffrey is a better athlete right now than he is thrower of the football. Not sure that's something I want to see in a young QB. He's only a RS frosh so he's got plenty of time. Still really not sold yet. I don't see anything in his game that really wows me. His arm strength is definitely a little on the weak side. He's rail thin still. He needs to add more weight and he can improve that arm strength a little bit by building up his lower body and adding some mass. He'll probably have to be the guy after Shea leaves because Peters is most likely transferring after this year and I have doubts about Joe Milton ever being able to play at this level. Lot of similarities between Milton and Shane Morris.
It was a bad throw. Would've been a tough play to make for a guy that is a dedicated receiver. Thomas spends most of his snaps in practice at CB, might get a few on offense and he only gets few live reps in games at receiver. Thomas reminds me of Ginn. Ginn was a CB recruit and started out there at OSU and was moved to WR pretty much right away once Tressel and all those coaches smartly realized hey- this guy needs the ball in his hands. I swear watch that return Thomas made against ND and then watch some highlights of Ginn. They almost look identical. I say play Thomas at WR. Full-time. He has rare ability. He needs that football in his hands.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #26 on: September 27, 2018, 04:11:12 AM »
I think the QB depth chart is a real strength. Also: attitude is half of the position, and you can tell a lot by reading a guy's eyes and mannerisms. The laser calm Dylan demonstrated in South Bend won me over instantly. Natural leader. I bet it will be very hard for a moment to be too big for McCaffery, and wouldn't predict we'll see that moment. Not that he'll always win. Just seems hard to shake. (<- my sense after a few weeks at back up; here's a grain of salt to go with it)
« Last Edit: September 27, 2018, 12:06:36 PM by Anonymous Coward »

bayareabadger

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #27 on: September 27, 2018, 06:43:54 AM »
It was a bad throw. We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this. Bad and mediocre QB's underthrow deep. Why? Because they are bad or mediocre.
Good and great QB's? They hit the receiver in stride on a deep ball.
The throw hit his shoulder pad. Not his chest. It was a pretty bad throw. Not sure McCaffrey has the arm to make that throw.
Michigan USED to have QB's that hit deep balls accurately. Shea can do it. Why they don't try it more with him is beyond me. Henne had a great connection with Manningham on those sort of throws. Below are examples of good throws on a deep ball. You have to put the ball out in front of the receiver right in his bread basket in stride. Those are good deep throws.

https://youtu.be/bR2b2BI6sxg?t=5m47s

https://youtu.be/gpmczVHz4r8?t=3m52s
So the argument here is not-perfect deep throws are by nature bad? This is kind of a common thing. We see ball placement that doesn't have that perfect lead and say, the throw could've been better.
But in the end, deep balls are low-percentage shots. Those shots that lead a guy just right account for even a lower percentage of throws. There's a sort of universal assumption a guy dials them up on command, but for the most part, they're hit and miss (that's part of why more offenses have shifted to higher percentage looks). Fans everywhere assume they're something that can be consistent, and in reality, they probably can't unless you're an all-time great. 
Bringing up Henne is interesting. He had a lot of good tosses in his time. He also had a lot of tosses in his time. Yes, the 20 or so best throws out of 1,387 were pretty darn nice. I bet there were a lot of over and underthrows mixed in there. We can argue which of those is better at a later time. 

 

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