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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on September 25, 2018, 07:32:13 AM

Title: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Temp430 on September 25, 2018, 07:32:13 AM
Michigan is favored by 14 with Northwestern coming off a bye week and having lost starting RB Larkin to a medical retirement.   I think Northwestern's defense will test Michigan more than Nebraska but can the Wildcats score any points?  
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2)
Post by: ELA on September 25, 2018, 08:36:38 AM
Yeah, not sure where the offense is coming from for Northwestern.  From MSU's perspective the following week, this may be a bad thing.  They may just throw the ball 70 times.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 10:41:35 AM
Impressively IMO, the Big Ten has 8 teams in the S&P+ Top 25 for defense. The Wildcats are one of them. Between that and Michigan's habit of having its offense travel unwell, this will be a good test.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 25, 2018, 02:20:20 PM
Impressively IMO, the Big Ten has 8 teams in the S&P+ Top 25 for defense. The Wildcats are one of them. Between that and Michigan's habit of having its offense travel unwell, this will be a good test.
how much of that is the B1G not playing anybody yet and the offenses in the B1G being bad.
Outside of Ohio State and then Penn State- who has played absolutely nobody- no one in the B1G seems to have explosion on offense.
Michigan has the potential for that. They have a pair of receivers who could be explosive if unleashed in Nico Collins and DPJ. Tarik Black would be 3 future Sunday receivers if/when he comes back. Could make a great argument Ambry Thomas would be 4 Sunday receivers if they played him exclusively at WR. He reminds me quite a bit of Ted Ginn Jr. His speed/acceleration combo is just at another level. All of those guys look like future NFL receivers. Big-time talents. All of them. They also have a RB who is probably the biggest RB mismatch in space in the passing game in the league in Chris Evans. They also have a freakish 6'7+ TE with great speed for the position in Gentry. They also have a QB who has flawless mechanics, a lightning quick release, can run and throw on the run, and can make pretty much any throw on the football field in Shea Patterson. Unfortunately they don't have the offensive coaching staff to utilize these weapons. Really sad. And it really pisses me off they are basically wasting elite talent on offense. Better offensive staffs would actually use those weapons. Instead this guy and his band of rejects basically throw the ball 20 times a game or less on average through 4 games, don't get the outside WR's involved as much as they should, play Thomas on defense when it looks clear as day that he's a guy that needs the ball in his hands bc he's so god damn explosive, and they try to turn Chris Evans into a between the tackles runner instead of the hybrid space player that he clearly is. Give an elite offensive mind that collection of skill talent he'd build a ridiculous offense. Harbaugh doesn't have a clue what to do with these guys.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 25, 2018, 02:44:15 PM
Michigan is favored by 14 with Northwestern coming off a bye week and having lost starting RB Larkin to a medical retirement.   I think Northwestern's defense will test Michigan more than Nebraska but can the Wildcats score any points?  
doesn't matter. Harbaugh will make sure this one is closer than it needs to be. I doubt highly that the OL will be able to replicate the success they had at home against a reeling Nebraska squad. Harbaugh will force the run and put Michigan in 3rd and longs all game long. He won't open things up and let Patterson throw the ball 40 times a game and put his athletes in space and use tempo to get the Northwestern D on their heels. If he went 4 wide and played Ambry Thomas on offense the entire game and put Chris Evans in space and threw him the ball- forget about it. They'd shred Northwestern in half.
But no. Michigan will eek out an ugly win. No way they are covering that spread. No way.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 02:57:20 PM
I don't think it's wrong to argue that every conference is loading up on crap teams, so the having 8 teams in the Top 25 has some value. But the sample size is low and I don't have any problem agree with you that it is due to, at least in part, weak opposition. 

We play to find out to which extent. It's a good test either way.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 02:58:55 PM
I was really disappointed how Ambry dropped that deep touchdown McCaffery threw. It was in stride and on his hands. Hopefully that's the only example of bad hands we see from him.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 25, 2018, 03:02:20 PM
I was really disappointed how Ambry dropped that deep touchdown McCaffery threw. It was in stride and on his hands. Hopefully that's the only example of bad hands we see from him.
It was a really bad underthrow by McCaffrey and to the wrong shoulder. Thomas had to stop running and adjust to the ball, which let the safety and CB catch up and put a lick on him. Thomas had both of them smoked. Like flat out smoked. He blazed right by the coverage. McCaffrey doesn't have the strongest arm and I think that might've been an example of one of his weaknesses right there. That ball is thrown out in front of Thomas that's a TD. Thomas can F-L-Y.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 25, 2018, 03:03:44 PM
how much of that is the B1G not playing anybody yet and the offenses in the B1G being bad. 
I could be wrong, but I think that at least in theory that should not be an issue.  Doesn't SP+ use a metric where it compares each offense to how other offenses did against that defense?  I think they do and if so, that should mostly take care of both of the questions that you raised.  
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 03:15:25 PM
They also have a RB who is probably the biggest RB mismatch in space in the passing game in the league in Chris Evans. They also have a freakish 6'7+ TE with great speed for the position in Gentry. 
Whoa there, slugger. Evans is great. Hopefully he heals up (hamstrings are THE WORST, very slow healing, recurrence rates are high). But JK Dobbins would like to have a word with you.
They also have a freakish 6'7+ TE with great speed for the position in Gentry. They also have a QB who has flawless mechanics, a lightning quick release, can run and throw on the run, and can make pretty much any throw on the football field in Shea Patterson. Unfortunately they don't have the offensive coaching staff to utilize these weapons. Really sad. And it really pisses me off they are basically wasting elite talent on offense. Better offensive staffs would actually use those weapons. Instead this guy and his band of rejects basically throw the ball 20 times a game or less on average through 4 games, don't get the outside WR's involved as much as they should, play Thomas on defense when it looks clear as day that he's a guy that needs the ball in his hands bc he's so god damn explosive, and they try to turn Chris Evans into a between the tackles runner instead of the hybrid space player that he clearly is. Give an elite offensive mind that collection of skill talent he'd build a ridiculous offense. Harbaugh doesn't have a clue what to do with these guys.
Would you have passed more versus Nebraska? Why? 
I think the passing game is too soon to judge. I'm not talking about the actual players and what they can execute. I agree it looks good. Here I mean the coaches and what they will call when it matters. ND was a cluster for other reasons. It was a terrrible week one game for this offense; would/could (probably?) be entirely different now. If it's true that the OL is turning a corner with Warriner now, then I think we have to wait until Wisconsin/MSU/PSU to see what the coaches actually want to do with the passing game.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 03:16:09 PM
I could be wrong, but I think that at least in theory that should not be an issue.  Doesn't SP+ use a metric where it compares each offense to how other offenses did against that defense?  I think they do and if so, that should mostly take care of both of the questions that you raised.  
Another good point. Yes.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 03:17:41 PM
It was a really bad underthrow by McCaffrey and to the wrong shoulder. Thomas had to stop running and adjust to the ball, which let the safety and CB catch up and put a lick on him. Thomas had both of them smoked. Like flat out smoked. He blazed right by the coverage. McCaffrey doesn't have the strongest arm and I think that might've been an example of one of his weaknesses right there. That ball is thrown out in front of Thomas that's a TD. Thomas can F-L-Y.
I guess I'll have to rewatch. I remember the throw differently. Even if underthrown, though, once you're there, many WRs make finishing that pay look routine.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 25, 2018, 03:22:29 PM
I guess I'll have to rewatch. I remember the throw differently. Even if underthrown, though, once you're there, many WRs make finishing that pay look routine.
go re-watch it. It was a bad throw. Thomas had to stop running completely, adjust to a ball that hit his shoulder pad, and then he got popped almost immediately. An accurate throw out in front of him, in-stride- that's a TD. He smoked that CB and that safety.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 25, 2018, 07:54:26 PM
Whoa there, slugger. Evans is great. Hopefully he heals up (hamstrings are THE WORST, very slow healing, recurrence rates are high). But JK Dobbins would like to have a word with you.Would you have passed more versus Nebraska? Why?
I think the passing game is too soon to judge. I'm not talking about the actual players and what they can execute. I agree it looks good. Here I mean the coaches and what they will call when it matters. ND was a cluster for other reasons. It was a terrrible week one game for this offense; would/could (probably?) be entirely different now. If it's true that the OL is turning a corner with Warriner now, then I think we have to wait until Wisconsin/MSU/PSU to see what the coaches actually want to do with the passing game.
I'm not talking about them running the football in space. I definitely think Dobbins is superior to Evans there and all-around really. I was merely talking about Evans' ability as a receiver out of the backfield. His ability to run pass routes and catch the ball is as good as any RB that I've ever seen. He is just eceptional. His hands are great. He is excellent at that really. Just really pisses me off that they don't feature him that way. He should be getting 5-10 balls come his way in the passing game every single game without fail. Think: Curtis Samuel. What does Harbaugh do with him? Try to make him a a ground and pound back. Makes no sense. Literally no sense.
And yes, they should've been passing the SHIT out of the football with the 1st team QB and WR's the last 3 games. I'm talking 40 times a game just to get in the live bullet reps. You get better at playing football by....playing football. You develop that chemistry and those reps against live bullets against over-matched teams right now. Why? So when you need it later on against the better teams you've actually done in in the games. Makes zero sense to not try to get in as much work as possible and work out the kinks. They will fail against the Wisconsin, MSU, PSU, and Ohio State teams precisely because of this. They'll get into situations where they absolutely need to throw the ball and they won't have had the reps and chemistry necessary.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 25, 2018, 08:06:24 PM
Shea Patterson through 4 games.

709 passing yards, 70.1% completion, 8.5 Yards per attempt, 7 TD's and 1 INT.  It's two but I'm listing it at 1 because it really should be only 1 INT, bc the 2nd INT was 100% on that bum Sean McKeon. Rushing stats aren't there at all bc they haven't used him in any read option stuff, which kinda ticks me off because he can do that.

How does that compare to first 4 games of Speight's 2016? 875 passing yards, 63.1% completion, 7.6 Yards per attempt, and 9 TD's vs 1 INT.

Patterson has been more accurate and had higher YPA. This is despite Patterson being there maybe 7 months compared to Speight being in the system for 2 years. And this is despite Patterson playing with a horrible offensive line and really young receivers whereas Speight had a pretty good veteran OL and a WR corps that was very experienced with seniors Jake Butt, Jehu Chesson, and Amarah Darboh.

In conclusion...

Shea > Speight. By a lot.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 09:04:07 PM
I really liked 2016 Speight ... until Iowa. He was bad in Iowa, period, but that 4th quarter injury essentially ended his career. He never came back from that. And two weeks later versus OSU, with the Buckeyes incapable of scoring on that defense on their own, the injury bit us doubly and he gave up the game with 1 pick-6 and another INT that wasn't literally a pick-6 but for all intents and purposes was. 

I accept and understand that as just how devastating a QB injury can be. But eff. Would have been a playoff team otherwise.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 25, 2018, 09:53:35 PM
(https://gifer.com/i/JQX8.gif)
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 10:51:21 PM
I think that could have been Marcel's favorite GIF on the internet
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: ELA on September 26, 2018, 11:15:57 AM

#14 Michigan Wolverines (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-0, 1-2)
4:30 - Evanston, IL - FOX
Well, I said last week that Nebraska would serve as a good litmus test between Notre Dame's elite defense, and the lousy Western Michigan and SMU defenses.  In a weird way, if Michigan had simply looked good, I'd have an easier time drawing a conclusion than what just happened.  Michigan so thoroughly dominated both sides of the ball, that it makes me question whether Nebraska is just a lousy team in a traditional helmet.  I suspect they are worse than we thought, but there's no denying Michigan's performance.  For some reason, Karan Higdon never seems fully appreciated, but it's clear that when he's in there, this offense just looks better.  Is he a Day 1 NFL pick?  No, but he's an every down back, with big play capability, who is 2nd in conference in yards per carry, at 7.9.  They put up 56 points, and honestly the quarterbacks didn't have an overly impressive game.  The most promising thing may have been that unlike the Notre Dame game, the coaching staff allowed Patterson to have his way with the short passes.  Move the ball around, take what the defense gives you.  The 18 receptions were spread out among 10 targets.  The only "maybe" downside is that a week after his coming out party, I'd like to see Peoples-Jones remain an alpha in the passing game, and while he still made his impact in special teams, 1 catch for 10 yards isn't the follow up I was looking for.  The way the defense looked, you wonder if Northwestern will be able to move the ball at all, particularly now that their starting running back was forced to retire due to a medical condition.  Right off the bat, Nebraska's offensive line looked overmatched in a way you rarely see in a Big Ten game where Rutgers isn't involved.  Northwestern returned 4 starters from an offensive line that played well together down the stretch last year, a major reason for the pivot in their season, after being a swinging gate early.  So have they rolled that over into 2018?  Well sort of.  Their adjusted sack rate of 3.82% is 30th in the nation, #2 in the Big Ten.  But even with a talent like Larkin, their 3.2 ypc on rush attempts was worst in the conference.  So you have a projected first round NFL pick at quarterback with a line that has been the second best pass blocking unit, caveat for style of play getting the ball out quick, and you have the worst yards per carry in the conference, plus you just lost your starting tailback.  Clayton Thorson may break the NCAA record for pass attempts in a game.  He threw it 52 times in their loss to Akron, and may have to do something similar.  That's their only chance to stay in it, but if they start going three and out, that's also a recipe for it getting out of hand in a hurry too.  I think the Cats play closer to the team that I expected them to be when I picked this as a Northwestern win in the preseason, and hang around for a while, but I don't see any way they can keep up against this defense with a totally one dimensional offense.
MICHIGAN 33, NORTHWESTERN 21
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 26, 2018, 07:59:02 PM
It was a really bad underthrow by McCaffrey and to the wrong shoulder. Thomas had to stop running and adjust to the ball, which let the safety and CB catch up and put a lick on him. Thomas had both of them smoked. Like flat out smoked. He blazed right by the coverage. McCaffrey doesn't have the strongest arm and I think that might've been an example of one of his weaknesses right there. That ball is thrown out in front of Thomas that's a TD. Thomas can F-L-Y.
Here it is for context:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PyNhifI5ds
I wouldn't call anything about it a bad throw. Not perfect. And, you're right, underthrown. But Ambry still had space and hands on it. Well hands second, first it hits him in the chest - also on him. If Ambry wants to be a great offensive player, that's a catch he's going to need to make.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 26, 2018, 10:07:29 PM
Here it is for context:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PyNhifI5ds
I wouldn't call anything about it a bad throw. Not perfect. And, you're right, underthrown. But Ambry still had space and hands on it. Well hands second, first it hits him in the chest - also on him. If Ambry wants to be a great offensive player, that's a catch he's going to need to make.
you just said it was underthrown. therefore it was a bad throw. an underthrow = a bad throw. it was a bad throw. period. watch the slow mo replay. Thomas had to break stride, stop running and turn his body around. The ball didn't hit him in the chest. It hit his shoulder pad. He got his hands on it after it bounced off his shoulder pad and he got hit almost immediately. The only reason he got hit was because the ball was poorly thrown and Ambry had to stop and adjust which let the defender who had been smoked gain ground. Would've been a very difficult catch for an experienced receiver. Basically impossible catch for a CB who gets maybe a couple reps all week in practice at receiver moonlights a few snaps a game at receiver.
https://youtu.be/6JboPgRozok?t=37m8s
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 26, 2018, 11:26:11 PM
Bah. No. Saying that a throw, if ever underthrown, is bad is the same as saying any throw that isn't perfect is bad. 
For example, in other situations QBs often underthrow deep, wide open WRs on purpose to avoid an uncatchable overthrow. The QBs job is to deliver a catchable ball. Any catchable deep ball is good enough to not be called bad.
This wasn't a perfect throw. But it hit Ambry in the chest. The throw was "good enough." The catch was not.
I'm sure Ambry will get better at this / hope so / look forward to t.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 27, 2018, 12:03:08 AM
Bah. No. Saying that a throw, if ever underthrown, is bad is the same as saying any throw that isn't perfect is bad.
For example, in other situations QBs often underthrow deep, wide open WRs on purpose to avoid an uncatchable overthrow. The QBs job is to deliver a catchable ball. Any catchable deep ball is good enough to not be called bad.
This wasn't a perfect throw. But it hit Ambry in the chest. The throw was "good enough." The catch was not.
I'm sure Ambry will get better at this / hope so / look forward to t.
It was a bad throw. We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this. Bad and mediocre QB's underthrow deep. Why? Because they are bad or mediocre.
Good and great QB's? They hit the receiver in stride on a deep ball.
The throw hit his shoulder pad. Not his chest. It was a pretty bad throw. Not sure McCaffrey has the arm to make that throw.
Michigan USED to have QB's that hit deep balls accurately. Shea can do it. Why they don't try it more with him is beyond me. Henne had a great connection with Manningham on those sort of throws. Below are examples of good throws on a deep ball. You have to put the ball out in front of the receiver right in his bread basket in stride. Those are good deep throws.
https://youtu.be/bR2b2BI6sxg?t=5m47s
https://youtu.be/gpmczVHz4r8?t=3m52s
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 27, 2018, 12:08:17 AM
I rewatched it. It hit him in the numbers. Even if that weren't true, since he had his eye on it the whole time, the ball hitting Ambry's shoulder and hands doesn't let him off either. The ball got to the space where he could make a play. He didn't.
We disagree. It's fine. Both players are playing for the future and could be great.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 27, 2018, 12:57:36 AM
(https://gifer.com/i/JQX8.gif)
I miss his unbounded Wildcat fandom and optimism.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 27, 2018, 12:58:23 AM
I rewatched it. It hit him in the numbers. Even if that weren't true, since he had his eye on it the whole time, the ball hitting Ambry's shoulder and hands doesn't let him off either. The ball got to the space where he could make a play. He didn't.
We disagree. It's fine. Both players are playing for the future and could be great.
I think McCaffrey is a better athlete right now than he is thrower of the football. Not sure that's something I want to see in a young QB. He's only a RS frosh so he's got plenty of time. Still really not sold yet. I don't see anything in his game that really wows me. His arm strength is definitely a little on the weak side. He's rail thin still. He needs to add more weight and he can improve that arm strength a little bit by building up his lower body and adding some mass. He'll probably have to be the guy after Shea leaves because Peters is most likely transferring after this year and I have doubts about Joe Milton ever being able to play at this level. Lot of similarities between Milton and Shane Morris.
It was a bad throw. Would've been a tough play to make for a guy that is a dedicated receiver. Thomas spends most of his snaps in practice at CB, might get a few on offense and he only gets few live reps in games at receiver. Thomas reminds me of Ginn. Ginn was a CB recruit and started out there at OSU and was moved to WR pretty much right away once Tressel and all those coaches smartly realized hey- this guy needs the ball in his hands. I swear watch that return Thomas made against ND and then watch some highlights of Ginn. They almost look identical. I say play Thomas at WR. Full-time. He has rare ability. He needs that football in his hands.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 27, 2018, 04:11:12 AM
I think the QB depth chart is a real strength. Also: attitude is half of the position, and you can tell a lot by reading a guy's eyes and mannerisms. The laser calm Dylan demonstrated in South Bend won me over instantly. Natural leader. I bet it will be very hard for a moment to be too big for McCaffery, and wouldn't predict we'll see that moment. Not that he'll always win. Just seems hard to shake. (<- my sense after a few weeks at back up; here's a grain of salt to go with it)
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on September 27, 2018, 06:43:54 AM
It was a bad throw. We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this. Bad and mediocre QB's underthrow deep. Why? Because they are bad or mediocre.
Good and great QB's? They hit the receiver in stride on a deep ball.
The throw hit his shoulder pad. Not his chest. It was a pretty bad throw. Not sure McCaffrey has the arm to make that throw.
Michigan USED to have QB's that hit deep balls accurately. Shea can do it. Why they don't try it more with him is beyond me. Henne had a great connection with Manningham on those sort of throws. Below are examples of good throws on a deep ball. You have to put the ball out in front of the receiver right in his bread basket in stride. Those are good deep throws.
https://youtu.be/bR2b2BI6sxg?t=5m47s
https://youtu.be/gpmczVHz4r8?t=3m52s
So the argument here is not-perfect deep throws are by nature bad? This is kind of a common thing. We see ball placement that doesn't have that perfect lead and say, the throw could've been better.
But in the end, deep balls are low-percentage shots. Those shots that lead a guy just right account for even a lower percentage of throws. There's a sort of universal assumption a guy dials them up on command, but for the most part, they're hit and miss (that's part of why more offenses have shifted to higher percentage looks). Fans everywhere assume they're something that can be consistent, and in reality, they probably can't unless you're an all-time great. 
Bringing up Henne is interesting. He had a lot of good tosses in his time. He also had a lot of tosses in his time. Yes, the 20 or so best throws out of 1,387 were pretty darn nice. I bet there were a lot of over and underthrows mixed in there. We can argue which of those is better at a later time. 
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on September 29, 2018, 08:29:54 PM
Michigan’s D pulled their rear out of the fire.   Kuddos to Michigan’s play callers in the 2nd half.  Calling a Higdon draw on 1st down 5 or 6 times in a row for a maximum gain of 1 yard was spectacular and quite memorable.

Coming back on the road from being down 17 is probably a good learning experience.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 29, 2018, 10:21:42 PM
The most memorable plays for me on offense are positive. No doubt that side languished a long time -- almost all the first half and scattered part of the second.
But those quads plays ... motioning Mason from the diamond toward the formation (first for a TD carry and second for a fake and key block on a Shea conversion) were smart and won the game.
Well, I mean, clearly the D "won the game" except actually they just made winning probable. It really was those two plays that were smart and brought it home.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 29, 2018, 10:57:38 PM
really pathetic performance by that offense and those offensive coaches. Shea Patterson and that defense flat out saved their asses.

Some quick thoughts: Chase Winovich is the best player on that defense. Joshua Uche needs to move to DE. Put about 15 lbs on him and that's a future draft NFL draft pick at DE. He is explosive. Ditto Kwitty Paye. Both of these guys need more reps. Aidan Hutchinson needs more playing time as well. Rashan Gary needs to move inside. They need to get those 3 young guys more reps at DE. All 3 have been getting more pressure on the QB than Gary. I know Gary is battling through an injury, so maybe it's time to sit him for a couple weeks and let him heal. When he's healed up...move him inside to DT. That's the weak spot of that DL right now. DE is the strength. They've got 4 DE's who are flashing at a high level right now in Winovich, Paye, Hutchinson, and Uche. Move him inside, let him wreck shit inside, shore up that middle and get the other DE's more reps.

Other defensive thoughts: Josh Ross needs to be starting at LB'er over Devin Gil. David Long and LaVert Hill are having slumps. They were a lot better last year. If they were thinking of leaving early for NFL- they might want to think again. Brandon Watson has been the best CB by far this year. Oh and Josh Mettelus needs to be benched for Brad Hawkins. Immediately. Hawkins is just a better athlete and football player.

Offense is just a mess. Don't even know where to begin. Shea Patterson saved the day. He is ridiculously good. This would be the same team as last year without him. Sean McKeon continues to be horrible. Nick Eubanks needs to play over him. Period. Zach Gentry is awesome. They need to get the WR's more involved. Where are the fades or jump balls to their big WR's like Nico Collins and DPJ? Offense just sucks period.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: SuperMario on September 30, 2018, 10:11:11 AM
Michigan’s D pulled their rear out of the fire.   Kuddos to Michigan’s play callers in the 2nd half.  Calling a Higdon draw on 1st down 5 or 6 times in a row for a maximum gain of 1 yard was spectacular and quite memorable.

Coming back on the road from being down 17 is probably a good learning experience.
I’m not a big twitter guy, but was sent this last night and thought it was spot on.
<br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/jaNBJe/A26_FC6_B9_8674_4_E64_85_BB_521_F30_FEAD1_C.jpg) (https://ibb.co/jaNBJe)<br />
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: SuperMario on September 30, 2018, 10:14:22 AM
I miss his unbounded Wildcat fandom and optimism.
Thought about him a lot this weekend. There are just people you come across that make you feel better about life.
His positive outlook never came across as homerism or arrogance, just an optimistic soul that loved his Wildcats. 
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 30, 2018, 03:11:13 PM
Some quick thoughts: Chase Winovich is the best player on that defense. Joshua Uche needs to move to DE. Put about 15 lbs on him and that's a future draft NFL draft pick at DE. He is explosive. Ditto Kwitty Paye. Both of these guys need more reps. Aidan Hutchinson needs more playing time as well. Rashan Gary needs to move inside. They need to get those 3 young guys more reps at DE. All 3 have been getting more pressure on the QB than Gary. I know Gary is battling through an injury, so maybe it's time to sit him for a couple weeks and let him heal.
I think that undervalues Gary's game and production. He reminds me of Will Ghoston. With the main goal of being elite at holding the edge versus the run.
Teams almost always run away from him. That means they are deliberately choosing to run at Winovich instead (somewhat accentuating Winovich's TFLs). Think about that and watch again. It's true. And on its own says a lot of somethin about somethin for what Gary is accomplishing despite some fans' hand wringing.
No doubt Gary's pass rush isn't as rampant as Winovich's. But Winovich is one of the nation's top few in that regard. And when Gary actually uses his speed-to-power, it's reminiscent of (or better than) Chris Wormley. These are all compliments.
Counting stats aren't everything in football.
On the other hand, I would like to see Gary work on adding more hand moves to his repertoire.
When he's healed up...move him inside to DT. That's the weak spot of that DL right now. DE is the strength. They've got 4 DE's who are flashing at a high level right now in Winovich, Paye, Hutchinson, and Uche. Move him inside, let him wreck shit inside, shore up that middle and get the other DE's more reps.
Depending on whether he can make that transition midseason (without an offseason of prep), I agree and would like to see this too. But not because Gary's been a disappointment to me. Just because the depth outside is really blossoming now, and the inside, though improving, could afford an extra bullet in the chamber. Not on every down. Just on passing downs.
Other defensive thoughts: Josh Ross needs to be starting at LB'er over Devin Gil.
He already has a starter's snap numbers. The ratio has gone from 50-50 to 66-33 and is only further incrementing toward Ross.
David Long and LaVert Hill are having slumps. They were a lot better last year. If they were thinking of leaving early for NFL- they might want to think again.
Painfully true. I'm not sure what's with them. The surrounding defense isn't putting more strain on them. They are suddenly less sticky than they were. Granted, near perfection is hard to follow up, but they've been consistently less than they were. To be clear, we're talking about two A++ guys become A- guys. But still.
On the other hand, what a luxury, to have a defense where the disappointments are like that.
Brandon Watson has been the best CB by far this year.
Amazing, isn't it? All hail Zordich.
Oh and Josh Mettelus needs to be benched for Brad Hawkins. Immediately. Hawkins is just a better athlete and football player.
You say this a lot. Hawkins has a bright future, but you're really underrating Metellus (as if calling a B+/A- guy a C). At safety, the concern isn't Metellus anyway. It's Kinnel. His tackling is the most inconsistent on the team.
Offense is just a mess. Don't even know where to begin. Shea Patterson saved the day. He is ridiculously good. This would be the same team as last year without him. Sean McKeon continues to be horrible. Nick Eubanks needs to play over him. Period. Zach Gentry is awesome. They need to get the WR's more involved. Where are the fades or jump balls to their big WR's like Nico Collins and DPJ? Offense just sucks period.
Lots to improve but they have the time and film to do it. This week, I thought the issue was largely a matter of scheme. BAB may jump in and say that's a common fan bugaboo/fallacy, and I'm open to that, but the drive ending with Higdon's first TD hailed an entirely different offensive strategy and it worked immediately.
On the other hand, the OL is definitely getting better each week. I think Warriner could really be the guy and may already be seeing gains. Needs to keep proving itself, but if true, the past is not the future and the playcalling will naturally change, so I vote to relax here too.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 30, 2018, 05:31:15 PM
Michigan is #1 in the country in total defense again (233 yards/game).
v-Pass: 146.2/game (1st), 5.1/attempt (4th)
v-Run: 86.4/game (7th), 2.4/rush (4th)

Admission: It's too early in the season to really care. These numbers *may* be impressive in an opponent-invariant way, but aside from ND, Michigan hasn't really played anyone, and a lot can change over the next 7 games.

With context, though, it is impressive how the program transitioned away from the nightmareish RR era, improved to respectability on D with Mattison and Hoke, and since 2015 has just held at this top level as the new normal.

There was a graphic posted early in the game yesterday that (across several metrics I can't recall to repeat, though I know this was one of them), Michigan has been the nation's best defense overall since 2015. Obviously, Michigan had Durkin in 2015 and Don Brown since. 

And then Brown has been great over this period both with and without Michigan. Top 5 last year and #1 in 2015 (with BC) and 2016. I hope he coaches until he's 100 and lives to be 150.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 30, 2018, 05:39:28 PM
Note: I'm not advocating for counting stats, by the way. I prefer the advanced and efficiency metrics. (Like S&P+, where Michigan is not 1st but 4th, nationally. Defensive FEI is useful, too, though that doesn't aggregate enough data to get published until after Week 7)
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 30, 2018, 10:28:54 PM
for as good as Brown's defenses have been statically- they've seemed to really lack turnovers. Doesn't make sense. As disruptive as his front 7's routinely are- should translate into way more turnovers.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 30, 2018, 10:34:49 PM
Gary is over-hyped by Michigan fans and national media. I understand he's been injured, but he hasn't put the kind of heat on the QB this year that he did in the 2nd half of last year. The other DE's have flat out been better at pressuring the QB this year. Against the same competition.

Like I said, I know he's injured. Which obviously contributes to that. They should sit him next week vs Maryland and then move him inside the week after against Wisconsin.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 30, 2018, 10:56:07 PM
That's what Michigan fans used to say about Will Ghoston, too. But MSU fans knew that just because a guy isn't piling up counting stats, doesn't mean he isn't dominating his assignment. Gary's holding the edge enough that no one is testing him. They are testing Winovich again and again, instead. Even when he blows them up too, offenses keep running at Winovich.
The Michigan fans unhappy with Gary aren't smarter than those coaches. Gary's ascension is just fine. Well, except for that shoulder. I'm worried about that shoulder.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 30, 2018, 10:57:45 PM
for as good as Brown's defenses have been statically- they've seemed to really lack turnovers. Doesn't make sense. As disruptive as his front 7's routinely are- should translate into way more turnovers.
Very true. But, to some extent, turnovers are random. Even when a fumble is forced, it isn't a turnover unless it bounces the right way.
It is maddening though how little "returning to the mean" there has been for Michigan in this category since the Carr years. How many times in that period has Michigan had a positive TO margin? 
Off the top of my head, only 2011 was noteworthy in that regard.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 30, 2018, 11:10:38 PM
That's what Michigan fans used to say about Will Ghoston, too. But MSU fans knew that just because a guy isn't piling up counting stats, doesn't mean he isn't dominating his assignment. Gary's holding the edge enough that no one is testing him. They are testing Winovich again and again, instead. Even when he blows them up too, offenses keep running at Winovich.
The Michigan fans unhappy with Gary aren't smarter than those coaches. Gary's ascension is just fine. Well, except for that shoulder. I'm worried about that shoulder.
Will Gholston was never the unanimous #1 recruit in the entire nation wire to wire since basically his sophomore year like Gary. Gary was #1 on those way too early rankings and he stayed #1 all the way throughout. Gholston was never hyped as a Top 5 NFL draft pick either.
This discussion has nothing to do with Gary holding the edge. It's about his lack of pass rush. He is not putting the same kind of heat on the QB as he was in the 2nd half of last season. Obviously his injury has something to do with that. Right now there are 4 other DE's getting more pass rush pressure than he is.
He'd be well served with a week off to heal up and then they really should move him inside. They have DE's who can get after it. DT has been the weakness of that defense. Mike Dwumfour finally showed up after all that hype, that was nice to see. Dwumfour was a terror inside. Mone's conditioning is an issue- he's approaching Gabe Watson territory- he's only good for a handful of plays a game bc he's just too fat. And Marshall and Kemp are solid rotational guys inside. Not guys that should be starting imo. Plugging Gary inside would give that interior a huge shot in the arm and get guys on the edge on the field who have been rushing the passer better than Gary.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 30, 2018, 11:59:55 PM
No, he wasn't #1 overall, and I get how that's different. Still, Ghoston was a hype monster of his own.
I agree that Gary's pass rush isn't otherworldly. I'm just not sure I need to care. Because his run defense very well may be the ebst of any DE in the conference. And his pass rush is routinely a quarter-second behind the guy who actually gets the sack. So it's not nothing. It's just not all-world. 
Michigan isn't suffering for pass rush. The defense isn't suffering at all. Gary is a big part of that. If he's never more, he's plenty awesome. Enjoy him while he's here.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 01, 2018, 12:37:18 AM
No, he wasn't #1 overall, and I get how that's different. Still, Ghoston was a hype monster of his own.
I agree that Gary's pass rush isn't otherworldly. I'm just not sure I need to care. Because his run defense very well may be the ebst of any DE in the conference. And his pass rush is routinely a quarter-second behind the guy who actually gets the sack. So it's not nothing. It's just not all-world.
Michigan isn't suffering for pass rush. The defense isn't suffering at all. Gary is a big part of that. If he's never more, he's plenty awesome. Enjoy him while he's here.
I'm not knocking him. He's a great player. He'll be a 1st round pick for sure.
I just think that Michigan's DL is extremely strong at DE if you include Josh Uche in that convo. Would be insane really if Villain was healthy.
DT's? Not so much. Moving Gary there and getting Solomon back in a few weeks would jump start that DT spot in a hurry. I'd go...
SDE: rotate evenly with Kwity Paye and Hutchinson
3tech: Gary with Dwumfour as the back-up
NT: Solomon with Mone as the back-up
WDE: Winovich with Uche as the back-up
Then on obvious pass rush downs go speed package.
Winoivch at SDE, Paye at 3-tech, Gary at NT, and Uche at WDE. Good luck blocking that.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 01, 2018, 12:48:15 AM
New topic, aaaand ... sigh:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jakeb4813/status/1046491152692785153

I'm not a conspiracy-ist, either. And maybe it is just outrageously bad luck or a structural detail of the Michigan D that innocently leads to fewer flags after holds. 
But on its own it is highly improbable by chance/coincidence (...) Add to that a DL as rampant as Michigan's every year and those already-low odds plummet by at least an extra factor of 2 to 10.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 01, 2018, 12:51:08 AM
And, whatever the answer is, it's certainly not that the penalties aren't called because Michigan's DL gets held less often than other DLs. 
Elite DLs get held more, not the same or less.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 01, 2018, 01:34:26 AM
that really pisses me off. If I was the Michigan AD I'm flying to Chicago right now to meet with Delaney. Unreal and unacceptable.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 01, 2018, 09:40:46 AM
I think it's OK for Michigan to politely demand an answer. And, since that answer will almost assuredly not be "oh we're just systematically biased," it's also OK/smart to discuss a way to test or confirm the answer they do get.
For example, if the Big Ten says it's just outrageously bad luck/coincidence, then Michigan should expect reversion to the mean - maybe even quickly. If the Big Ten asks its refs and says it may be more due to something structural about Michigan's defense, then Michigan can go back and count holding penalties when they were/weren't doing that thing (to confirm).
Either way, nothing bad can come from going to the Big Ten and saying "hey, here's a weird/concerning observation; let's talk."
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on October 01, 2018, 10:41:15 AM
And, whatever the answer is, it's certainly not that the penalties aren't called because Michigan's DL gets held less often than other DLs.
Elite DLs get held more, not the same or less.
So here's the real question to me, why are not good defenses drawing so many holds?
Like if OSU/UW/PSU were at the top and Mich was the bottom, that's fishy. But OSU is bottom half, UW somewhat better, IU and Minnesota up high?
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 01, 2018, 10:53:02 AM
So here's the real question to me, why are not good defenses drawing so many holds?
Like if OSU/UW/PSU were at the top and Mich was the bottom, that's fishy. But OSU is bottom half, UW somewhat better, IU and Minnesota up high?
look at the total holds per 100 plays defended.

Wisconsin is at 1.40. Michigan at .76. Not quite but damn near twice as many.

One would think the better the front 7 the more holding calls they'd draw. Michigan has arguably had THE BEST front 7 in the entire conference over that time span yet they are at the very bottom.

OSU is at 1.27, Michigan State is at 1.23, Penn State is at 1.17. And Michigan is all the way down dead last at .76. They aren't even getting ONE call per 100 defensive plays. Absolutely crazy. Ridiculous. Unacceptable.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
Post by: SuperMario on October 01, 2018, 11:54:26 AM
So here's the real question to me, why are not good defenses drawing so many holds?
Like if OSU/UW/PSU were at the top and Mich was the bottom, that's fishy. But OSU is bottom half, UW somewhat better, IU and Minnesota up high?
This was my first thought as well. I think(with no validity or facts behind my thought) the answer is keeping games competitive.  Let's be honest, sports are about money now. Influencing games to have or keep more viewers generates more $. I watched the Browns have a game literally stolen from them yesterday and it reminded me there's no reason to be attached at a deep level because the outcome is influenced. 
The experience should be the reason to watch, not the outcome. 
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 01, 2018, 01:07:58 PM
A conspiracy theory against at worst the 2nd biggest money generator in the league fails to even get off the ground.

That's also only accepted holding calls.  I'd be far more interested in seeing total holding calls.  First, it would make sense that an elite defense would have a lower percentage of called holdings accepted because there's a higher chance of a play being made elsewhere.  Either one player getting held while another player got a sack, or still getting an incomplete pass on a 3rd down.  Something like that.  Second, an elite defensive line presumably would cause teams to scheme differently.  Why is Indiana at the top of that list and Michigan at the bottom?  Possibly because the gameplan against Michigan is that you better get that ball out quickly to try and negate that DL.  Third, maybe there's some amount of coaching involved there.  Just like you see more and more basketball player flail their heads back driving down the lane, you see more and more defensive linemen throw their hands up in the air, drawing fouls where (a) one may not exist or (b) one may exist, but would not have been seen but for the arms flailing.  Or maybe it's just dumb luck.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: SuperMario on October 01, 2018, 03:04:12 PM
A conspiracy theory against at worst the 2nd biggest money generator in the league fails to even get off the ground.

That's also only accepted holding calls.  I'd be far more interested in seeing total holding calls.  First, it would make sense that an elite defense would have a lower percentage of called holdings accepted because there's a higher chance of a play being made elsewhere.  Either one player getting held while another player got a sack, or still getting an incomplete pass on a 3rd down.  Something like that.  Second, an elite defensive line presumably would cause teams to scheme differently.  Why is Indiana at the top of that list and Michigan at the bottom?  Possibly because the gameplan against Michigan is that you better get that ball out quickly to try and negate that DL.  Third, maybe there's some amount of coaching involved there.  Just like you see more and more basketball player flail their heads back driving down the lane, you see more and more defensive linemen throw their hands up in the air, drawing fouls where (a) one may not exist or (b) one may exist, but would not have been seen but for the arms flailing.  Or maybe it's just dumb luck.
I think you need to go back and look at the post. It distinguishes between accepted and total per 100 snaps and the numbers are pretty glaring. 
I don't think any of your explanations are reasonable. If you're looking at one game, then maybe, but over the course of 2 1/2 seasons you think everyone is just game planning better for Michigan than Indiana? Or Coaching? C'mon. We're not talking about a small difference here. We're talking the average is 49.8% higher than Michigan's average per 100 plays. That's a significant difference. 
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: bayareabadger on October 01, 2018, 03:50:32 PM
I think you need to go back and look at the post. It distinguishes between accepted and total per 100 snaps and the numbers are pretty glaring.
I don't think any of your explanations are reasonable. If you're looking at one game, then maybe, but over the course of 2 1/2 seasons you think everyone is just game planning better for Michigan than Indiana? Or Coaching? C'mon. We're not talking about a small difference here. We're talking the average is 49.8% higher than Michigan's average per 100 plays. That's a significant difference.

It’s significant once you cut it down to a rate like that. The difference between first and last is less than a hold every two games (something like .44 per game).  So we’re talking fewer than five penalty yards a game,  and since the majority of holds probably don’t wipe out significant plays,  maybe one, at most two extra big plays allowed in a year.
Is that significant? Or  does it just tell us there aren’t that many holds in the average big 10 game?
( this is an interesting look at how data presentation can often and inflame our passions, though I suppose ranking show that to us all the time, if we’re willing to look)
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 01, 2018, 03:51:26 PM
I think you need to go back and look at the post. It distinguishes between accepted and total per 100 snaps and the numbers are pretty glaring.
I don't think any of your explanations are reasonable. If you're looking at one game, then maybe, but over the course of 2 1/2 seasons you think everyone is just game planning better for Michigan than Indiana? Or Coaching? C'mon. We're not talking about a small difference here. We're talking the average is 49.8% higher than Michigan's average per 100 plays. That's a significant difference.

I didn't see that the bottom number was total called.  Then yes, that negates #1.
But no, who says that's game planning BETTER against Michigan?  I never said they were game planning better.  I said they were game planning different.  If you trust your OL to hold up you are going to game plan different than if you don't.  You are going to trust longer pass plays to hold up, you are going to trust your OL to establish the run game.  So while over the course of a game against Indiana you are probably going to hit more deep passes and successful runs, you are also putting yourself in position to get called for more holdings in the times you don't.  And yes, coaching.  Not better or worse coaching, but specifically coaching your defenders to throw their arms up (which I personally hate).
I'm not saying that one is legit, I'm just saying that is a far more reasonable explanation than actually thinking the Big Ten would have any sort of anti-OSU or UM or PSU bias.  That mere suggestion made me literally lol.  Maybe they hate money, and adding Rutgers was a purely football move.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: SuperMario on October 01, 2018, 03:59:09 PM
It’s significant once you cut it down to a rate like that. The difference between first and last is less than a hold every two games (something like .44 per game).  So we’re talking fewer than five penalty yards a game,  and since the majority of holds probably don’t wipe out significant plays,  maybe one, at most two extra big plays allowed in a year.
 Is that significant?
( this is an interesting look at how data presentation can often and inflame our passions, though I suppose ranking show that to us all the time, if we’re willing to look)
Ha. You're certainly not wrong about any of what you posted. Maybe the timing was also perfect since the fan base is still wondering how Higdon was flagged for a bizarre holding call, where he was body slammed. 
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: SuperMario on October 01, 2018, 04:05:37 PM
I didn't see that the bottom number was total called.  Then yes, that negates #1.
But no, who says that's game planning BETTER against Michigan?  I never said they were game planning better.  I said they were game planning different.  If you trust your OL to hold up you are going to game plan different than if you don't.  You are going to trust longer pass plays to hold up, you are going to trust your OL to establish the run game.  So while over the course of a game against Indiana you are probably going to hit more deep passes and successful runs, you are also putting yourself in position to get called for more holdings in the times you don't.  And yes, coaching.  Not better or worse coaching, but specifically coaching your defenders to throw their arms up (which I personally hate).
I'm not saying that one is legit, I'm just saying that is a far more reasonable explanation than actually thinking the Big Ten would have any sort of anti-OSU or UM or PSU bias.  That mere suggestion made me literally lol.  Maybe they hate money, and adding Rutgers was a purely football move.
Any time Michigan fans think they have a legit gripe, your response is always "it can't be true because Michigan is a big money maker for the conference." In most cases, I understand your perspective, but that can't always be the out. On the flip side, I get it, some things are coincidence and the world is not out to get Michigan football.
Lastly, what's a reasonable explanation to one person may be unreasonable to another. I would argue, there's also big money in Michigan losses as well. Nowadays, media dollars are driven by both good an bad. Michigan losing to Appalachian State fed many media mouths for a long time. 
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 01, 2018, 04:05:56 PM
Ha. You're certainly not wrong about any of what you posted. Maybe the timing was also perfect since the fan base is still wondering how Higdon was flagged for a bizarre holding call, where he was body slammed.
And yes, that was a terrible call
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 01, 2018, 04:08:27 PM
Any time Michigan fans think they have a legit gripe, your response is always "it can't be true because Michigan is a big money maker for the conference." In most cases, I understand your perspective, but that can't always be the out. On the flip side, I get it, some things are coincidence and the world is not out to get Michigan football.
Lastly, what's a reasonable explanation to one person may be unreasonable to another. I would argue, there's also big money in Michigan losses as well. Nowadays, media dollars are driven by both good an bad. Michigan losing to Appalachian State fed many media mouths for a long time.
Yes, there can be a legitimate gripe, I just don't buy that the legitimate gripe is some sort of conspiracy.  For example if it's that their guys are playing football while other guys are flailing as they've clearly been coached to do, that's a gripe.  Just like I don't buy any anti-MSU basketball officiating bias that some MSU fans claim.  I do buy that some coaches coach their kids to flop and draw charges rather than play defense.  Those are two different gripes.  There are bad calls, that Higdon holding for example.

I do think you are discounting other factors, such as teams removing large amounts of slower developing, higher reward type plays from their playbook, knowing that those plays will never have time to work.  I just buy something like that more than some anti-UM bias, particularly in such a specific way.  In conference play last year, Michigan opponents were called for 51 penalties, 7th most in the conference.  So they simply aren't getting called for one specific penalty.  The number called in total is squarely in the middle.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 01, 2018, 11:35:02 PM
A conspiracy theory against at worst the 2nd biggest money generator in the league fails to even get off the ground.

That's also only accepted holding calls.  I'd be far more interested in seeing total holding calls.  First, it would make sense that an elite defense would have a lower percentage of called holdings accepted because there's a higher chance of a play being made elsewhere.  Either one player getting held while another player got a sack, or still getting an incomplete pass on a 3rd down.  Something like that.  Second, an elite defensive line presumably would cause teams to scheme differently.  Why is Indiana at the top of that list and Michigan at the bottom?  Possibly because the gameplan against Michigan is that you better get that ball out quickly to try and negate that DL.  Third, maybe there's some amount of coaching involved there.  Just like you see more and more basketball player flail their heads back driving down the lane, you see more and more defensive linemen throw their hands up in the air, drawing fouls where (a) one may not exist or (b) one may exist, but would not have been seen but for the arms flailing.  Or maybe it's just dumb luck.
A. I agree that elite DLs should in theory have lower (sometimes even far lower) accepted opponent holds. But the total holds you asked for were posted in the same graphic and Michigan's opponents were a *drastic* outlier in that category, too.
B. Conspiracy theories are anathema to me. The point here isn't to chase a boogeyman. It's to acknowledge that this observation is highly unusual and politely demands explanation.
C. You're right. The idea that some nebulous Big Ten "decider" in the administrator's office "wants" Michigan to lose and is orchestrating it to be so is dumb. But that's not the idea anyone here is pushing.
D. I acknowledged it could be outrageously "dumb luck" but if that's the lead theory, let's not forget to emphasize the "outrageous" and continue to return with the expectation of a dramatic return to the mean.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 01, 2018, 11:35:22 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoXiAgKU0AA4OGi.jpg:large)
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 01, 2018, 11:39:12 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DocZinhXsAMkCVI.jpg)
Whether you call that peculiar or call it fishy is just a stylistic choice, somewhat dependent on your affinity for conspiracies. I don't care about all that.
That it is fixed fast and explained faster is all that matters to me.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 12:05:15 AM
Somewhat tangentially:

I'm WAY past ready for the Big Ten to use its jerk money for full-time professional refs. It's dumb that a once/week ref can't feed a family of two (and barely a family of one) on his salary ... and that we act surprised at the quality of the calls.

And, no, paying them more can't guarantee there won't be weekly fan outcry, but at least it will be a gesture of good faith that the best refs are being chased. Not to mention that competitive pay is necessary for a healthy pipeline of officials. I'd like to see the cost/benefit of giving Big Ten refs NFL-equivalent salaries.

More transparency and individual accountability of refs is overdue as well. A few years back, the NBA started publishing extensive details for all calls and no calls in the last 2 minutes of close games. That would be a good start.

Big Ten refs need to be independently rated on performance, with transparency and consequences. Unfortunately, without higher salaries, the incentives to be a ref in such a system are low. The whole system needs a revolution.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Mdot21 on October 02, 2018, 12:17:12 AM
Somewhat tangentially:

I'm WAY past ready for the Big Ten to use its jerk money for full-time professional refs. It's dumb that a once/week ref can't feed a family of two (and barely a family of one) on his salary ... and that we act surprised at the quality of the calls.

And, no, paying them more can't guarantee there won't be weekly fan outcry, but at least it will be a gesture of good faith that the best refs are being chased. Not to mention that competitive pay is necessary for a healthy pipeline of officials. I'd like to see the cost/benefit of giving Big Ten refs NFL-equivalent salaries.

More transparency and individual accountability of refs is overdue as well. A few years back, the NBA started publishing extensive details for all calls and no calls in the last 2 minutes of close games. That would be a good start.

Big Ten refs need to be independently rated on performance, with transparency and consequences. Unfortunately, without higher salaries, the incentives to be a ref in such a system are low. The whole system needs a revolution.
they should put trackers in the field and football to help determine 1st downs.
Also they should just get rid of all officials on the field except maybe 2 - 1 on each side of the LOS and have guys sitting in booths watching the game from every imaginable angle in real time in constant communication with guys on the field telling them what penalties to call or penalties not to call or which ones they missed.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Temp430 on October 02, 2018, 05:11:01 AM
Since the targeting call on Bolden in East Lansing in 2016 I’ve been ready to flush instant reply.  Its morphed into something that takes too long, stops the flow of the game, and they still get obvious calls wrong.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 10:32:59 AM
GPS'ing balls has been suggested for years. It could help but on its own could not account for when a person's knee or elbow hit the ground. So it would require an elaboration of the powers of the review room, which may not be a good idea (for game flow or for getting it right).
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 02, 2018, 10:37:45 AM
GPS'ing balls has been suggested for years. It could help but on its own could not account for when a person's knee or elbow hit the ground. So it would require an elaboration of the powers of the review room, which may not be a good idea (for game flow or for getting it right).
I would think trackers in the ball and markers, that would cause the markers to light up or signal when the three markers created a straight line would be how you would do that.  It would still likely involve replay, but you could compare the knee to a light, similar to basketball comparing whether a shot is touching a players hand or not when the clock expires.  I don't think it would eliminate replay, but it would help ensure that replay is correct.  Spot of the ball outside of when the line to gain matches a mark on the field has to be the toughest call to overturn, and I think it would simply change that.
Problem is, this is only an issue when we are talking inches, and I don't know how you guarantee that the markers are precisely lined up with each other.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 10:38:28 AM
Also they should just get rid of all officials on the field except maybe 2 - 1 on each side of the LOS and have guys sitting in booths watching the game from every imaginable angle in real time in constant communication with guys on the field telling them what penalties to call or penalties not to call or which ones they missed.
That's a radical idea. The game may inch in that direction. However I don't want football to ever throw a flag on literally *every* call. The game would never move or end. Because almost every play may have plenty of penalties. I just want a judgment call machine (let's call it a referee) to be fair and proportional when estimating which number of real penalties to see and flag.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 10:42:19 AM
Meanwhile I was hoping for more conversation on the image atop this page. There's clustering of everyone except Michigan, including a general trend that matches DL quality (I.E.: for everyone except Michigan, the average slope is negative, with its line passing from the top-left to bottom-right of the graph) ... and then Michigan is chilling in Guam (counter to the slope, in the top-right) without rhyme or reason.
It's absurd.
Title: Re: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 12:07:18 PM
At 10.5, Chase Winovich now leads the nation in TFLs. Not bad for a guy who can't draw an opponent holding call.