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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3752 on: November 14, 2020, 09:38:28 AM »
Well, reality often is negative, but it's still reality.  I think "we" should start considering active remediation and compensation (building dikes for example).

It's hard for me to see a process that can suck CO2 out of the air that is energy efficient at all, the entropy factor is huge.  Anything that tries to remove something present at 400 ppm faces that core issue.  We have two concepts, aerosols in the upper atmosphere and iron salting the oceans.  Both have been tested and "work" but we don't know what adverse consequences might happen with large scale usage.

There is also a notion the planet is entering a cooling period, that is no more than a notion, and GW is offsetting that natural trend.  I rather doubt this, but it's interesting.


MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3753 on: November 14, 2020, 09:42:24 AM »
The good thing is any reduction is still a reduction.  There is a bit of zero sum to this.  It's kind of like stopping smoking at 50.  It may be too late for some things, but it ain't for others.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3754 on: November 14, 2020, 09:49:28 AM »
Cost:benefit.

If we spend TRILLIONS of dollars for an insignificant reduction, it's money wasted that could have been used for other endeavors and approaches.

MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3755 on: November 14, 2020, 09:56:04 AM »
If a possible benefit is preserving life as we know it, what cost would be worth it?  A lot of these models are just our best guesses - the effects could be much less, on target, or much more.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3756 on: November 14, 2020, 09:59:35 AM »
If the models are only "guesses", best or not, then the whole thing may be a false proposition.

If the actual result is better than they all forecast, then we should do very very little.  If the result is much worse, doing anything is way too little too late.

If they are on target, it's also too little too late, and we should explore other options to find where the best "solution" exists after doing cost:benefit analysis.

I see zero reason to dump trillions into "green energy" that ends up with a very very minor impact on the real problem.

MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3757 on: November 14, 2020, 10:02:04 AM »
Of course the models are guesses.  That's what all models that predict the future are.  We can't possibly account for every variable and we don't understand every process, especially with something as big and variable as the entire climate of the world.  So when we do cost: benefit analysis, the uncertainty of what is going on should be part of the conversation, otherwise you aren't doing any analysis at all.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3758 on: November 14, 2020, 10:05:37 AM »
The models are a lot more than "guesses".  They were not developed by folks sitting around GUESSING what might happen.

I've read a good bit about the various models and I have issues with how they are developed, but they are a lot more detailed and involved than pure guesses.

If they ARE guesses (they are not), we shouldn't rely on them AT ALL.

I could GUESS the climate is cooling and we should dump more CO2 into the air.


MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3759 on: November 14, 2020, 10:11:52 AM »
The models are a lot more than "guesses".  They were not developed by folks sitting around GUESSING what might happen.

I've read a good bit about the various models and I have issues with how they are developed, but they are a lot more detailed and involved than pure guesses.

If they ARE guesses (they are not), we shouldn't rely on them AT ALL.

I could GUESS the climate is cooling and we should dump more CO2 into the air.


??  Yes, they are guesses.  They aren't blind guesses.  They aren't random.  They are based on the best knowledge we have.  But anyone who does them will (or at least should) tell you they can't be certain.  Of course they can't be certain.  Just look at the election model on 538 - they try to run a model and can get thousands and thousands of different outcomes. The odds of getting one may be more than the other.  But they still have to guess.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3760 on: November 14, 2020, 10:20:04 AM »
1: to form an opinion of from little or no evidence  She could only guess what he meant.


2: BELIEVE, SUPPOSEI guess you're right


I think they are more valid than a "guess".  If they are not, we should ignore them entirely.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3761 on: November 14, 2020, 10:22:16 AM »
A guess to me is playing roulette and putting chips on five, because you guess it will come up next.


FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3762 on: November 20, 2020, 08:04:16 PM »
It has no license to produce electricity, hasn't generated a kilowatt since 1958, and provides no benefits for irrigation or flood control.


But one thing Enloe Dam, built 100 years ago, still does very, very well: block fish from reaching more than 340 miles of high-quality, cold-water habitat upstream in the Similkameen River.

The dam is of no use to anyone, not the small rural public utility district (PUD) that owns it, and not to tribes longing to bring salmon back to this river. Obstacles of cost, liability and a quest by the PUD to revive the dam for more than a decade stood in the way of removal.

But now new efforts are underway to take down Enloe Dam.


https://phys.org/news/2020-11-blocking-miles-salmon-streams-hasnt.html
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MaximumSam

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3763 on: November 20, 2020, 08:56:21 PM »
I once kayaked in a river during a salmon run in Alaska. It was something - you would look down and see fish everywhere.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3764 on: November 21, 2020, 06:42:32 AM »
That dam should have never been built.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3765 on: November 21, 2020, 07:15:22 AM »
Back in the day, dams were viewed as "taming Nature", much the way clear cutting was viewed, and swamp drainage, etc.

 

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