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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3080 on: July 15, 2020, 04:29:50 PM »
I didn't know that Southern Chad had revolted.  How'd it turn out?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3081 on: July 15, 2020, 04:35:55 PM »
Sorry, I had the wrong chad, the right one was not hanging.


CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3082 on: July 15, 2020, 07:13:27 PM »
:86:
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3083 on: July 18, 2020, 09:21:00 AM »
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/07/17/biden-has-a-new-climate-plan-thats-better-but-its-not-2-trillion-for-clean-energy/

One green guy's take on the newest Biden proposal.  He wants a price on carbon, which apparently is not mentioned.


  • Small modular reactors just have a different set of problems from large scale reactors, and don’t exist commercially. None of them are going to be viable at any scale by 2035, so they are a future pipe dream. Let private sector pockets pay for that. Why throw more federal dollars after it when there’s a need to achieve tremendous action by 2035? Biden is going to throw a bunch of money at them.
  • Mechanical carbon capture and sequestration, including air carbon capture and captured carbon transformation, remains — after 50 years of investment and billions of dollars — a complete and utter waste of money. He’s going throw a bunch of money at it. Biological methods, especially low tillage agriculture — hinted at but not called out — and tens of billions of trees are the answer, and they get virtually nothing.
  • Green hydrogen for power is another mostly dead end. It’s an incredibly lossy storage mechanism that is a faint hope for the natural gas industry which wants to provide lots of hydrogen from steam reformation of natural gas with carbon capture at the reformation plant, a fundamentally dead solution economically without federal money. So Biden is going to throw more money at it.



MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3084 on: July 18, 2020, 09:46:38 AM »
That article is mostly fair.

I agree that new nuclear (including the small reactors) isn't realistic. There's a chance they become economic, but I'm skeptical. The important thing is the extend the life of existing nuclear as long as possible - at the very least until coal is completely phased out.

There is a substantial amount of pumped hydro on the energy storage side, but apparently there are very few good sites left, and it's an expensive technology. At least one of these alternative energy storage technologies will challenge Lithium Ion.

I strongly disagree that hydrogen won't have a role. It has some disadvantages compared to guess, even once it's economic, but it's the best chance to decarbonize aviation and, shipping, and industrial processes. Maybe biofuels will have a role, but even the most promising startups there are focused on waste-to-hydrogen.

Mechanical carbon capture probably won't really get much attention anytime soon, nor should it. Tree-planting, changing agricultural practices, and the like are more cost-effective, of course. Related to that, if the plant-based meat really takes off, then that could be a big deal since vegetables, fruits, and grains are much more efficient to produce than meat. I haven't converted to plant-based meat yet (I used to be more hopeful for lab-based meat but now I'm not so sure), but I'm hopeful that over time it will become more cost-effective and taste just as good. If that happens, the meat industry will be drastically reduced.

His plan doesn't specify using the military to deploy the emerging technologies, which was I great idea that Warren had. I suspect that the plan is still a work in progress, overall, so other ideas will emerge.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 09:54:09 AM by MichiFan87 »
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3085 on: July 18, 2020, 11:05:47 AM »
As I've noted, I don't see much future for hydrogen.  It may serve specialized roles, maybe.

The biofuel core concept is replete is issues that to me look basically unsolvable in most cases.  It's a PR stunt by Exxon in my view.

We were supposed to have all this bioethanol now from cellulose, something which I KNEW would be a bust from the start.  Technically, these things sounds great until you look under the hood.  And we're stuck with ethanol from corn as it is, no way to get out of that one now.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3086 on: July 18, 2020, 11:55:55 PM »
if the saudis and the russians kill the price of gasoline it could end corn based ethanol
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3087 on: July 19, 2020, 07:04:06 AM »
Corn ethanol is just a farming subsidy.  It has little to do with the price of gasoline in reality.

I still recall discussing the EPA mandated targets for cellulosic ethanol, I think they still exist, and of course that was a massive flop.  I don't know how you can mandate availability and use of something that is not technically feasible.

I suspect we may see more of that as Congress enacts "green" legislation, I suspect a lot of it will be to set targets for something, preferably well off in the future, when someone else is in Congress.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3088 on: July 19, 2020, 08:43:47 AM »
perhaps, but when demand for ethanol drops, the plants don't run.

when the price of gasoline drops, oil is cheaper than corn

less ethanol gets blended

when the plants don't run, they're in danger of being closed forever like the local restaurant

a friend of mine works in the accounting dept of an ethanol producer, he's looking at taking a pay cut to take another job because the future doesn't look good for his company 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3089 on: July 19, 2020, 10:07:32 AM »
The crops get planted, you can't unplant them if the price of oil drops.

And I imagine they have price supports for the corn.  The ethanol plants could shutter, or go off line, for a time.  The oil producers usually cut production and the price rises, as it has recently.

Oddly enough, ethanol is a good octane booster and they use more of it in premium than in regular, so you can get better mileage from regular than premium, depending.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3090 on: July 19, 2020, 10:26:13 AM »
crops get planted, if ethanol producers are not buying corn, the corn price goes down

when gasoline is less than $2 a gallon and it costs more than $2 a gallon to produce ethanol, less ethanol gets blended

smaller refineries had received waivers as hardship to not blend ethanol.  Not sure what percentage this is overall, but it makes a difference
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3091 on: July 19, 2020, 10:35:31 AM »
Gasoline wholesale right now is about $1.22 per gallon.  

Looks like ethanol is maybe $1.74 per gallon.

https://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/question707.htm

So, right now I imagine refiners are using less which means reducing supply, as you say.  Folks are also driving less as well.

Maybe this will shut down some of the wasteful gasohol production.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3092 on: July 19, 2020, 10:40:29 AM »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels-waivers/astonishing-trump-epa-backs-down-on-biofuel-waivers-in-blow-to-us-refiners-idUSKBN21C0YL

A bit old, but some stuff about these waivers in it.

My guess is if the market controlled this situation, the corn ethanol would be a thing of the past quickly.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3093 on: July 19, 2020, 10:44:49 AM »
I think when gas is over $3 a gallon and corn is less than $3 a bushel, it's a good thing

otherwise, not so much

the dependence on foreign oil isn't the issue it was back when ethanol got started

dependence on goods from China is more pressing today 
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