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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1624 on: July 14, 2019, 08:24:07 AM »
How much of this is independent,honest analysis?Again if there are billions of dollars to be made somewhere there are those that can be bought or manipulated.The older I get and the more I've been around the block I'm convinced big money will piss down our backs and tell us it's raining
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1625 on: July 14, 2019, 09:06:59 AM »
I personally think the vast vast majority of climate scientists are honest and doing the best job they can.  It is the intercept between them - the real scientists - and the media where the gap is formed.  Their original papers are very hard to read without a lot of effort.  They use a lot of jargon, they might refer for example to the "TGT calculation of Smith et al." and a casual reader is lost at that point unless he looks up the paper by Smith.  It is VERY easy to excerpt from that work "burfle" taken out of context and present that to the rest of us as authoritative.

What would make sense in such a case is to have some "review board" take an overview of it all and hope they have no reason to be biased, which was done, but even that report gets excerpted and the uncertainties are minimized or ignored.  The media take out whatever they want and disregard the rest.

https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/

" For instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2°C."

The thing is here that a 10 cm reduction in MSL is not really going to help that much, if a 1 m rise happens by 2100.  Anyway, I see "no hope" of a practicable approach to reducing this, or even limiting the rise to 2°C by 2100.  We can sign all the agreements we want, but the path to real reductions in CO2 simply is not there in any practicable sense.


Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1626 on: July 14, 2019, 09:38:51 AM »
How much of this is independent,honest analysis?Again if there are billions of dollars to be made somewhere there are those that can be bought or manipulated.The older I get and the more I've been around the block I'm convinced big money will piss down our backs and tell us it's raining
Anyone can be wrong, and no profession is perfectly resistant to corruption by money or pursuit of fame. But the vast majority of scientists - especially in fields like oceanography and geology - have modest salaries. No one becomes a scientist to get rich. And fame isn't a realistic pursuit for these guys either, as underscored by the fact that 99.5% of us probably can't name a single geologist or oceanographer.

I think the best way to look at this is that when it comes to really hard questions, the best answers may or may not come from scientists, but the scientists are likely to spend the most time on that question, address that question more carefully than non-scientists, be the least glued to just one answer, the most flexible about changing mind as the evidence requires, care as much as anyone about the truth, and have the most training.

That's not enough to just blindly accept their take. And good scientists will readily admit that. It's bad thinking to believe an authority has the correct answer just because they are an authority. But that doesn't mean the opposite is true - that you should rarely trust them. Scientific authorities often, but not always have the most accurate information and perspectives available to our species.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1627 on: July 14, 2019, 09:49:47 AM »
but, good scientists are paid by others with agendas to come up with the desired results
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1628 on: July 14, 2019, 09:56:32 AM »
but, good scientists are paid by others with agendas to come up with the desired results
I do not think this is the case, other than perhaps in very unusual circumstances.

We actually hear very rarely from active climate scientists in the media.  A handful have chimed in, some of those cautionary about the whole story, like Judith Curry.


https://judithcurry.com/

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.394.9454&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1629 on: July 14, 2019, 10:51:39 AM »
but, good scientists are paid by others with agendas to come up with the desired results
I think that sentence is internally inconsistent. Certainly, for example, the tobacco industry paid scientists to prey on specific uncertainties in evidence related to their products and cancer. But paying those guys doesn't make them good scientists.

In fact, by being rigid, manipulative, and aimed at one answer no matter what, they arguably ceased to be scientists at all. Or, if we insist to call them scientists, then they were quite poor at the scientific method and therefore poor scientists.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1630 on: July 14, 2019, 10:58:10 AM »
I don't think they get funding by saying climate change is real.  They want to study some aspect of it.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1005504031923

Just one example.

« Last Edit: July 14, 2019, 11:09:12 AM by Cincydawg »

MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1631 on: July 14, 2019, 12:42:33 PM »
Ya but look at Petroleum.When I was a kid at any given time Shell may have gas for 42.9 cts a gallon,Unocal 41,Phillips 43.5,Gulf 44.WTF happened to that?Now everyone is exactly the same and the prices fluctuate almost identically at the same time.Sorry the fix is in there - once bitten twice shy
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1632 on: July 14, 2019, 01:36:00 PM »
Gasoline prices on average mirror petroleum prices.  I see quite a bit of variation around me.  The closest Shell to my west was $3.09 yesterday for regular, and one north of me about the same distance almost is $2.79.  But the more expensive one is right off the freeway.

One thing I noticed is when one station gets a new load of gas the price changes and every station near them changes at the same time even if they did not get a new load.  Coscto changes when they get a load in, so if the price went up recently, get to Costco quickly, which will be cheaper anyway, and it's Top Fuel certified as well.




Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1633 on: July 14, 2019, 02:59:33 PM »
I have an app on my phone to find the cheapest gas around me at any time. In most places, I see about 20-cents of range in a few mile radius. Granted, at any one intersection, the prices are almost identical. Which seems like smart business.

But I'm not sure how we switched focus. Are we connecting this to the idea that "scientists are on the take."

MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1634 on: July 14, 2019, 03:10:42 PM »
Big Business which isn't below using science as a means to an end
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1635 on: July 14, 2019, 03:22:05 PM »
Coming back to the idea that scientists are on the take:

Close to all scientists publish in scientific journals. And close to all of them are employed by universities, the government or industry. It may not be known to non-scientists but to publish anything in a scientific journal, every author must make and sign a Conflict of Interest declaration. 

CoI disclosures identify any family ties and sources of income that could conceivably -- even just a teensy bit -- benefit from research in their favor. Universities, government and industry jobs require similar declarations be signed each year. These require dated signatures. Lying constitutes fraud. And it's punishable by loss of job, stature, or right to publish. 

From all the pestering I've gotten over the years from research compliance departments, I can tell you U-M, PSU, and Indiana University take this seriously. And given that their reputations are also on the line, that's shouldn't be surprising.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1636 on: July 14, 2019, 03:52:18 PM »
I don't recall signing any COI, but that was back in the day, almost before the printing press.

There was a Purdue professor named Herb Brown who took up a very unpopular stance on a topic that most thought had been resolved.  He had legions of Indian grad students and post dogs at his beck and call and he used them mercilessly, and quite effectively in this war, which erupted at several conferences with shouting.

Herb was a rotund man who did some superb chemistry in his day and eventually won the Nobel, delayed probably because no one liked him.  I THINK his point in all of this was not to take things as being "decided" when perhaps they weren't.  He conceived some very elegant experiments, and his foes did as well, and the battle was epic.  I imagine it is still studied for pedagogical purposes, the actual subject matter doesn't really matter much in any practical sense.

I don't think Herb relieved believed in his arguments, finally.  Folks ended up agreeing to disagree and move on as it was consuming a LOT of resources on an aside.  I found it fascinating.  I was at one of these conferences when Herb came in and sat down next to me, he took up two chairs, and immediately started talking to me.

I was at another conference when another fellow who had written a book I was trying to decipher sat next to me and I said "I read your book!", and he responded "All of it?", and I had to admit I was struggling with parts of it.  Jacob Israelachvilli, was his name.

I see he just recently passed away, very smart guy.  If you want to read his book, here it is:





OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1637 on: July 14, 2019, 03:52:34 PM »
but, good scientists are paid by others with agendas to come up with the desired results
Who?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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