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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Temp430

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1610 on: July 13, 2019, 07:34:51 AM »
The data showing the increase in CO2 is from human activities is about as rock solid as anything can be.  I take it as a fact.  I can imagine an alternative explanation for the data, meaning the isotope ratios.
The relative enrichment of C12 in the atmosphere and depletion of C14 indicates an old source of carbon enriched in C12.  Fossil fuels are the best explaination unless some other C12 enrichment process besides photosynthesis is discovered.  But that does not prove mankind is responsible for the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. 

The planet has been warming up since the end of the mini ice age around 1840.  As the ocean warms the solubility of CO2 decreases and the partial pressure of CO2 in the air increases. Perhaps the freshest CO2 in the air is from burning fossil fuel but in the absence of that the CO2 conc. would be the same?  In other words, mankind may be responsible for the C12 enrichment but not the increase.  The concentration of CO2 has been higher in the distant past.  It has also been lower and has increased before mankind was around in significant numbers and burning stuff.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 07:55:17 AM by Temp430 »
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1611 on: July 13, 2019, 08:56:20 AM »
Yes, CO2 levels have varied in the past.  There is some data to suggest it can be a following parameter, e.g., that it rises after a rise in T caused by cycles or whatever.

The steady rise of CO2 in the air coupled with the isotopic data strongly suggested this is mostly due to fossil fuels being burned.  We have a reasonable handle on how much CO2 is produced each year from FFs and the levels match up up fairly well.

We obviously do burn a LOT of FFs each year.  A gallon of gasoline generates a surprising (to me) amount of CO2 (because the O2 part is so heavy).

I don't fully trust the models though, they can only be devised by "back fitting".  There may be a lot of important parameters not being considered.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1612 on: July 13, 2019, 11:53:25 AM »
The relevant data isn't only the diminishing C12/C13 ratio or the increasing total atmospheric [CO2], it's these *and* the observation that both trends begin around 1850. Total abundance and isotope changes correlate just as tightly with one another as they do with onset of the industrial revolution.

Also, while it's important to continually seek new, alternative explanations, let's not forget to pay attention to the probabilities those alternatives are correct.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1613 on: July 13, 2019, 12:03:46 PM »
The problem I have with the various models is simply that they can only be "back checked".  You have to make some basic assumptions about what variables are critical and to what degree and pile them into an algorithm and then see if they predict what has happened up to now, and then adjust.

This also requires that our mean T data is reliably calculated, which also is plausibly inaccurate.

Simple factors like cloud cover have to be very complex to model and have an obvious impact on climate.  The planet might heat up a bit and form more cloud cover as a result and the enhanced albedo cools the surface down, but then clouds at night hold heat in.  Then there is methane and CO2 locked in permafrost and the whole ocean CO2 absorption issue.

I tried to do some primary reading back in the day on models in Nature and Science etc. and it was too jargoned up to follow easily at all.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1614 on: July 13, 2019, 12:08:26 PM »
But that does not prove mankind is responsible for the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.
It's ok to not be convinced of something as long as you could conceivably change your mind if the right data came along later. If you were an oceanographer/geologist/whichever in charge of leading a study on this, what's something you could conceivably discover that would reverse your opinion?

Basically I'm curious about your threshold for believing something. Separately, I'm curious whether your threshold on this is similar to your threshold for believing other things.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1615 on: July 13, 2019, 12:20:21 PM »
I think people in both camps are wary of the models. They are too diverse in their forecasts and too speculative about feedback to know whether any of them are trustworthy (let alone which!).

But whereas models are mostly for the world should it ever achieve a consensus and become  focused on fixing the problem, many people (including this thread) aren't there yet. So I'm more interested in ignoring the forecasts in favor of discussing observations and the deductive process for these questions: "Is Earth warming?" - "Is its carbon cycle growing in capacity, notably in CO2?" - "What's the relationship between these?" - "What's the CO2 source?"

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1616 on: July 13, 2019, 12:21:47 PM »
I find it more interesting to ponder what could be done about it in any practicable sense.

My answer thus far is "Very little".

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1617 on: July 13, 2019, 12:30:21 PM »
I find it more interesting to ponder what could be done about it in any practicable sense.

My answer thus far is "Very little".
That seems probable to me too. But I'm not cynical about it. Even if futile on climate (not certain, just a strong maybe), getting serious about stewardship can have significant impacts elsewhere. Climate isn't our only man-made crisis. There're also crises of fresh water quality, air quality, and solids pollution. And most *attempts* at climate correction will inevitably (even if inadvertently) address these as well, because fossil fuels contribute in plurality or majority to each of those problems. The key, as always, is making it favored by economic forces, do that and political will is automatic.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 12:39:54 PM by Anonymous Coward »

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1618 on: July 13, 2019, 12:49:51 PM »
If "we" expend significant assets at curtailing CO2, that likely means fewer assets for curtailing "normal" problems.

My approach would be to curtail coal burning for power as expediently as possible.  I'm not sure if that needs funding assistance, loan guarantees, what, but it would be useful overall to reduce coal to the extent possible.

The US has done a pretty good job on air quality, much better than Europe has.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20180810/paris-pollution-like-smoking-183-cigarettes-a-year

https://www.numbeo.com/pollution/compare_cities.jsp?country1=France&city1=Paris&country2=United+States&city2=Los+Angeles%2C+CA

Europe made a shift to favoring Diesel fuel to combat CO2 production and in the bargain ended up with much higher "normal" pollutants.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/08/11/air-pollution-ranking-32-cities-measure/

MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1619 on: July 13, 2019, 02:48:12 PM »
Had to talk to my HVAC guy for advice,has his own business but he works that around teaching at a Trade School.Has some interseting theories/info about how the Corporate Suits manipulate the market.Pushing out certain refrigerants and introducing not better but more profitable types.Yet they are allowed to re-capture the old refrigerant,scrub/filter it and use it again - usually in Auto A.C.s.Evidently a big ozone hole over Australia years ago has sealed up and that couldn't have possibly been from relatively recent federal mandates for the environment when factoring in China/India/Russia - according to him
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1620 on: July 13, 2019, 03:45:45 PM »
My understanding was that the ozone layer is now better sealed over the poles because ozone is a gas and has wafted around sufficiently over the decades, but that this sealing effect comes at the cost of the entire layer being thinner on average.

MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1621 on: July 13, 2019, 03:57:00 PM »
Refrigerants are actually the leading source of CO2 emissions according to https://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank, which was a book written a few years ago about how to mitigate emissions.

Meanwhile, Trump apparently made a speech related to energy & environment this week, including saying he supports solar despite of course putting tariffs on them last year. At least he didn't say wind turbines cause cancer, again....
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1622 on: July 14, 2019, 07:14:26 AM »
Our analysis includes emissions reductions that can be achieved through the management and destruction of refrigerants already in circulation. Over thirty years, containing 87 percent of refrigerants likely to be released could avoid emissions equivalent to 89.7 gigatons of carbon dioxide. Phasing out HFCs per the Kigali accord could avoid additional emissions equivalent to 25 to 78 gigatons of carbon dioxide (not included in the total shown here). 

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/new-global-co2-emissions-numbers-are-they-re-not-good

Assuming the analysis is correct, that would be about three years of global CO2 production.  Are HFCs included in the various climate models as contributors to climate change?

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1623 on: July 14, 2019, 07:17:13 AM »
https://www.livescience.com/38519-refrigerant-hfcs-devastating-to-climate.html

Currently, HFCs comprise only 2 percent of total carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions, but this percentage may increase to as much as 20 percent if society continues on its current emissions trajectory. Alternatively, a global phasedown of HFCs could avoid 100 gigatons of carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions by 2050, and prevent a global average temperature increase of 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, according to findings announced in Bangkok, Thailand, in June by members of the air-conditioning and refrigeration industry at the Advancing Ozone and Climate Protection Technologies: Next Steps conference.

Useful figure here to note is the equivalence between 100 gT of CO2 and 0.5°C, or more easily stated as 200 gT = 1°C (1.8°F in projected T increase).

200 gT is about 5 years of current production.  That is steeper than I would have guessed.

 

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