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8 of the 10 of those are above the Mason - Dixon,but both Dakota's are in there so it's just not about population 

Georgia is exploding, again, and worse.  The previous peak in new cases is exceeded now handily.  This was of course feared several weeks back.

Europe is happening here, and Thanksgiving didn't help.  I'd like to know with some reasonable certainty why things died back and then exploded again.

Is whatever that was that tempered the peak in June going to temper this one?

IMHO, no.

Perhaps this is just anecdotal, but I saw people changing their behavior when the second wave really hit and they started taking it seriously. I.e. after they relaxed in the first round of reopening, they tightened back up.

This time, I'm not seeing any intent by anyone to tighten up, no matter the numbers. Here in CA where we've got a lockdown, several county sheriffs are basically saying "Mr Newsom has made his decision, now let him enforce it." Anecdotally, seeing friends and others as we're getting into holidays, and they're just sick and tired of being apart so they don't seem to care.

So I don't see much changing.

I'm thinking more about this one...

I would think that after Christmas, there's a good chance we'll start to see people rein in their behavior. 

I think a lot of people are giving in to social pressure to do the holiday thing despite the risk. I can see a lot of people that right now are just hoping they make it through the holidays unscathed and might shut things down once they pass...

I could see numbers start to drop as we get past December. On top of that, we'll at least be seeing a start to vaccination, so although the numbers of vaccinated individuals won't be enormous, every one of them is one potential reduction of a host for R0. 

So the peak might get tempered... I just don't think it'll be in the next 4 weeks.

I decided to look at Arizona's website and I found this page. Man, July was a rough month there. Looks like things on the death front are settling down a bit now, which is good. My FIL has not left the house since March, and my MIL only goes out to get food. They are 87 and 85. He has other issues but she is very healthy.

Why? You don't appreciate relevant data?

According to the CDC, those are the numbers.

Average incubation is a little more than 5 days.

Gaussian distributions, HOW DO THEY WORK?????