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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11410 on: December 11, 2020, 05:16:20 PM »
Gaussian distributions, HOW DO THEY WORK?????


just ask OAM
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11411 on: December 11, 2020, 05:16:39 PM »
People outside of scientific disciplines expect that science is going to give them an answer. And when anything comes out that is not 100% certain, they blame science. Or if it's a rule of thumb (like the 6 feet thing) that isn't 100% certain, they then blame it for being overly certain.

People within scientific disciplines understand that everything comes with uncertainty, and that the best you can do in any endeavor is to try to give a good answer within the bounds of uncertainty. 

As the old one goes...

A mathematician, physicist, and engineer are all brought into a room. At the opposite end of the room is a gorgeous naked lady. They're told that every 30 seconds, they can cross half the distance to the woman and if they ever reach her, they can have sex with her. 
The mathematician immediately gives up, claiming that he knows theoretically he'll never reach the lady. 
The physicist, after two minutes and copious measurements, does the same, knowing that based on empirical data he will never reach the lady. 
The engineer, every 30 seconds, keeps moving forward. Keeps moving forward. Keeps moving forward.
The mathematician and the physicist are incredulous, they ask him "don't you realize that you'll never reach her???"
The engineer replies, "Oh, I know that, but I realize that in about 5 minutes I'll be close enough for all practical purposes."

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11412 on: December 11, 2020, 05:20:39 PM »
What in hell is OAM gonna do when the vaccine starts to make a difference
You're just jealous because the voices talk to her
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11413 on: December 11, 2020, 05:47:52 PM »
Gaussian distributions, HOW DO THEY WORK?????
Normally.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11414 on: December 11, 2020, 05:51:16 PM »
With COVID, if we see a behavior and expect a response, it's reasonable to expect said response in ABOUT 14 days.  If we don't, it could occur after 20 days for some reason, and the response COULD be due to something other than the behavior.

France shut down, and within 14 days, quicker actually, they saw a very clear cut response.  They left schools open, which leads one to speculate that schools are probably not major issues with this.  Now France is creeping back up a bit.

The six feet thing is obviously rule of thumb based on what can be expected from a normal sneeze or cough of yell.  Seven feet is better, but we're more familiar with six.  Ten feet is better yet but still not perfect of course.

Brutus Buckeye

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11416 on: December 11, 2020, 06:36:07 PM »
Leading Causes Of Global Deaths: Big Changes Since 2000

This analysis is through the end of 2019 and doesn’t include COVID-19. But with a projected 1.9 million deaths in 2020, the pandemic would rank as the sixth-highest cause of death globally.

  • Death rate decreased 2000 to 2019
  • Death rate increased 2000 to 2019
Coronary heart disease 110Stroke 89Neonatal/birth conditions 52.1Lower respiratory infections 49.7Inflammatory lung disease 48.6Diarrhea 43.1Tuberculosis 28.3HIV/AIDS 22.5Lung cancers 19.6Road injuries 19Diabetes 14.3Kidney diseases 13.2Dementias 9.5(110 deaths per 100,000)2000115.3 Coronary heart disease80.4 Stroke41.9 Inflammatory lung disease33.6 Lower respiratory infections26.4 Neonatal/birth conditions23.1 Lung cancers21.3 Dementias19.7 Diarrhea19.4 Diabetes17.3 Kidney diseases16.6 Road injuries15.7 Tuberculosis8.8 HIV/AIDS2019


Leading Causes Of Global Deaths: Big Changes Since 2000
This analysis is through the end of 2019 and doesn’t include COVID-19. But with a projected 1.9 million deaths in 2020, the pandemic would rank as the sixth-highest cause of death globally.
  •  Death rate decreased 2000 to 2019
  •  Death rate increased 2000 to 2019
Coronary heart disease 110Stroke 89Neonatal/birth conditions 52.1Lower respiratory infections 49.7Inflammatory lung disease 48.6Diarrhea 43.1Tuberculosis 28.3HIV/AIDS 22.5Lung cancers 19.6Road injuries 19Diabetes 14.3Kidney diseases 13.2Dementias 9.5(110 deaths per 100,000)2000115.3 Coronary heart disease80.4 Stroke41.9 Inflammatory lung disease33.6 Lower respiratory infections26.4 Neonatal/birth conditions23.1 Lung cancers21.3 Dementias19.7 Diarrhea19.4 Diabetes17.3 Kidney diseases16.6 Road injuries15.7 Tuberculosis8.8 HIV/AIDS2019
[th]CAUSE OF DEATH[/th]
[th]RANK[/th]
[th]CHANGE IN RANK[/th]
[th]2000 RANKING[/th]
[th]2000 RATE[/th]
[th]2019 RATE[/th]
Coronary heart disease1-1110115.3
Stroke2-28980.4
Inflammatory lung disease3+2 548.641.9
Lower respiratory infections4-449.733.6
Neonatal/birth conditions5-2 352.126.4
Lung cancers6+3 919.623.1
Dementias7+13 209.521.3
Diarrhea8-2 643.119.7
Diabetes9+3 1214.319.4
Kidney diseases10+3 1313.217.3
Road injuries12-2 101916.6
Tuberculosis13-6 728.315.7
HIV/AIDS19-11 822.58.8

Notes
Rates are in deaths per 100,000 people. Only causes that were in the Top 10 for either 2019 or 2000 are shown.

Source: WHO
Credit: Thomas Wilburn / NPR



Credit: Thomas Wilburn / NPR




Top Causes Of Global Deaths — And How COVID-19 Would Rank : Goats and Soda : NPR






FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11417 on: December 11, 2020, 07:29:01 PM »
8 of the 10 of those are above the Mason - Dixon,but both Dakota's are in there so it's just not about population :017:
first, good that Iowa didn't make the top ten

second, no new cases in some of those states????
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11418 on: December 11, 2020, 07:35:26 PM »
two weeks is not a magical time scale
six feet is not a magical distance

Yet time after time, they're cited, and thus become hard-and-fast rules.
this is a large part of the problem

"wear a mask and everyone is safe" = bullshit message
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11419 on: December 12, 2020, 08:38:20 AM »
first, good that Iowa didn't make the top ten

second, no new cases in some of those states????
It's about when they report. So, if a state has not reported that day, it's remains blank until they do.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11420 on: December 12, 2020, 09:09:46 AM »
ok
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11421 on: December 12, 2020, 09:18:56 AM »
this is a large part of the problem

"wear a mask and everyone is safe" = bullshit message
The real message of course is more like:

Maintain distance
Wear a mask when you can't
Wash your hands when you return home.

If everyone does these things, we may be able to limit the spread, not eliminate, but limit the spread, so as to keep hospitals functional.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11422 on: December 12, 2020, 09:21:16 AM »
Take some group of 1,000 folks in which 10 are contagious, but don't know it, so they are out and about, and interact with others.  Each may infect two others in normal behaviors, and they then infect two others, so so on.  Exponents.

But if everyone distances, washes, and masks up, they only infect one other person.  Major major difference in outcomes over time.  Area under the curve could be the same over time, but the peak would be much lower.


FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11423 on: December 12, 2020, 09:27:19 AM »
be much better to tell folks to stay home.  DO NOT go out in public.

unless it's essential

like back in March/April

because, if you go out, there's always a chance you can't distance, your mask could fail you, or your hands could transfer the virus

but, I understand folks don't "want" to do this and it's impossible to enforce this

so, we wear masks, try to distance and spread the virus
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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