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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11424 on: December 12, 2020, 09:29:52 AM »
J&J cuts size of Covid-19 vaccine study due to prevalence of disease (statnews.com)
J&J cuts size of Covid-19 vaccine study due to prevalence of disease (statnews.com)

Johnson & Johnson is cutting the size of its pivotal U.S. Covid-19 vaccine trial — the only major study testing a single dose of a Covid vaccine — from 60,000 volunteers to 40,000 volunteers.
The change is being made possible by the fact that Covid-19 is so pervasive across the country, according to a person familiar with the matter. The more virus there is in the U.S., the more likely it is that participants will be exposed to it, meaning researchers will be able to reach conclusions based on a smaller trial.
Changing the size of the study does not indicate that results will come on a different timetable, or anything about whether they will be positive or negative.


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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11425 on: December 12, 2020, 09:49:07 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 09:27:19 AM
be much better to tell folks to stay home.  DO NOT go out in public.

unless it's essential

like back in March/April

because, if you go out, there's always a chance you can't distance, your mask could fail you, or your hands could transfer the virus

but, I understand folks don't "want" to do this and it's impossible to enforce this

so, we wear masks, try to distance and spread the virus
We're beating a dead horse.It gets down to what will be left to live for if we were to hole up completely for months on end.No jobs/interactions/activities and no guarantee this stops.Might as well be the days of yore and we're stuck in the Tower of London with William Wallace and the rest of the ne'er do wells.Will it be worth throwing it all away?For the pittance of safety we've got in exchange?
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11426 on: December 12, 2020, 09:50:37 AM »
Changing the size of the study does not indicate that results will come on a different timetable, or anything about whether they will be positive or negative.

so, why change the size?

can't find an additional 20K?
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11427 on: December 12, 2020, 09:53:03 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 12, 2020, 09:49:07 AM
We're beating a dead horse.It gets down to what will be left to live for if we were to hole up completely for months on end.No jobs/interactions/activities and no guarantee this stops.Might as well be the days of yore and we're stuck in the Tower of London with William Wallace and the rest of the ne'er do wells.Will it be worth throwing away?For the pittance of safety we've got in exchange?
I understand this, but
for the elderly and those at risk of a rough go in the hospital, THOSE folks would be better off holed up for a month or two or three while this thing runs it's course
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11428 on: December 12, 2020, 10:02:23 AM »
Hyperbole aside, I don't expect folks to "hole up for months".  I think it prudent to make the standard precautions, not hole up for months, so we can get through this until the vaccine is widely available.

Washing your hands more often seems not to be onerous to me.  I'm OK with wearing a mask and trying to distance from strangers.  That's it.  I'm not holed up for months.

If you find those three things just too onerous to practice, well, OK with me.  I don't.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11429 on: December 12, 2020, 10:03:21 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 09:50:37 AM
Changing the size of the study does not indicate that results will come on a different timetable, or anything about whether they will be positive or negative.

so, why change the size?

can't find an additional 20K?
A smaller study would happen faster and be cheaper, and provide the same statistically valid results.  If you don't need a larger study, why do it?
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11430 on: December 12, 2020, 10:05:49 AM »
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11431 on: December 12, 2020, 10:07:27 AM »
My bubble:

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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11432 on: December 12, 2020, 10:07:36 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 12, 2020, 09:53:03 AM
I understand this, but
for the elderly and those at risk of a rough go in the hospital, THOSE folks would be better off holed up for a month or two or three while this thing runs it's course
Keep protocol/precautions in place and enforced then keep on keeping on
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CatsbyAZ

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11433 on: December 12, 2020, 11:43:08 AM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on December 11, 2020, 03:35:06 PM
I'm thinking more about this one...

I would think that after Christmas, there's a good chance we'll start to see people rein in their behavior.

I think a lot of people are giving in to social pressure to do the holiday thing despite the risk. I can see a lot of people that right now are just hoping they make it through the holidays unscathed and might shut things down once they pass...

I could see numbers start to drop as we get past December. On top of that, we'll at least be seeing a start to vaccination, so although the numbers of vaccinated individuals won't be enormous, every one of them is one potential reduction of a host for R0.

So the peak might get tempered... I just don't think it'll be in the next 4 weeks.

I also think people can be broadly divided into two reactionary types: those who choose to learn the Easy Way and those who choose the Hard Way. There was always going to be a large part of the population that doesn't change their behavior until it harmfully impacts them.

As for the Holiday Season, I agree with you. If everybody is broke as usual going into the New Year, won't that reinforce keeping the lid on things that probably should've been kept on from Halloween through Christmas?

And as for the much hyped "Thanksgiving Wave," was there ever really a Halloween Wave? It's worth asking about the Thanksgiving angle because Europe is amidst high daily death counts despite not celebrating Thanksgiving. Italy with over 600 deaths/day, UK over 400, France over 400, and Spain over 200.

Meanwhile, Iran is finally coming down from their third wave - over 400 deaths/day for most of November now down to 200/day so far in December.

Edit: Globally reported COVID deaths crept above 1.6 million yesterday; likewise USA's total topped 300K.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2020, 12:36:29 PM by CatsbyAZ »
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11434 on: December 12, 2020, 02:22:38 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 12, 2020, 10:02:23 AM
Hyperbole aside, I don't expect folks to "hole up for months".  I think it prudent to make the standard precautions, not hole up for months, so we can get through this until the vaccine is widely available.

Washing your hands more often seems not to be onerous to me.  I'm OK with wearing a mask and trying to distance from strangers.  That's it.  I'm not holed up for months.

If you find those three things just too onerous to practice, well, OK with me.  I don't.
that's fine, but I think that's what is happening and it doesn't seem to be enough to curtail deaths
so, if we as a nation or a state or a local community are fine with this, great
if we are not or if hospitals are going to be over run, then something else is needed
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11435 on: December 12, 2020, 02:26:22 PM »
Cities should have left their temporary hospitals in place. Dismantling those was a big mistake.
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11436 on: December 12, 2020, 02:28:30 PM »
better to dismantle them and not need them

they are temporary, they can be put up again

tell folks to stay the fuck home

especially old folks
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #11437 on: December 12, 2020, 02:31:25 PM »
They were built inside convention centers. No reason to remove them.
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