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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
(Read 748743 times)

Mdot21 · « **Reply #1260 on:** April 04, 2020, 09:24:56 PM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on April 04, 2020, 09:21:30 PM

This got weird.

Today I got pizza from a food truck that I really like. I’m getting local take out about every other day, though I am considering going back to back for a breakfast burrito tomorrow.

I also am definitely messing up my county‘s numbers about distance traveled because I keep going for long walks by a river near my house.

Weird is good.

And I haven’t left the house in 2 days. I’m getting stir crazy. I can’t do this quarantine thing much longer.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #1261 on:** April 04, 2020, 11:34:35 PM »

Quote from: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 08:16:59 PM

No, they are not. Social Security is a prime example. Its expenditures are based on how many eligible recipients there are and cannot be cut without changing the law.
I didn't change your point about the military budget to GDP, I compared it to historical expenditures using a consistent metric--percentage of GDP. I could have used percentage of the federal budget and it would have made a chart that supported my point even more strongly. You provided no comparison to anything or any context whatsoever. You just threw out your opinion that it was bloated and indefensible and left it at that.

Your graph didn't negate my point. That's the problem. I say military spending is obscene and you provide a graph that shows it used to be worse. That doesn't make the military budget prudent now, it just means it's always been obscene and used to be more so.
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I think it's called a "yeah, but what about this" strategy. It's like I said OU's home jerseys are maroon and you post a pic from 1973 that shows they were more maroon. Okay, cool....but they're also maroon now. I wasn't wrong.
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I'm obviously wrong sometimes, we all are. But here, in this instance, you haven't revealed it. Separate from this, I'm often debating with someone who cites sources that are obviously slanted and flawed....by people in the bubble, so to speak. Yes, another one of my opinions. I don't find it a worthwhile exercise to deal with that, so I guess it looks like I'm running away or whatever - I don't much care. Countering with some other source from some other bubble are wasted moments that none of us will ever get back.
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Facts no longer matter. Thanks to whoever is responsible for that. I doubt we'd agree on who that is.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #1262 on:** April 05, 2020, 06:40:59 AM »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Italy may have peaked, but the daily death toll is not going down as fast as it went up, which makes sense. This curve is not Gaussian. Or "normal".

Area under the curve will be bad.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #1263 on:** April 05, 2020, 07:07:27 AM »

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/?fbclid=IwAR36MUbcafK0A6CHTDRQl87Dbcna5QrMK40HCwwoS5DttCsw8IHEuivhkF8

I found this interesting and helpful, especially the mask discussion, pros and cons are good if sometimes confusing.

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #1264 on:** April 05, 2020, 07:26:17 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 11:34:35 PM

Your graph didn't negate my point. That's the problem. I say military spending is obscene and you provide a graph that shows it used to be worse. That doesn't make the military budget prudent now, it just means it's always been obscene and used to be more so.
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I think it's called a "yeah, but what about this" strategy. It's like I said OU's home jerseys are maroon and you post a pic from 1973 that shows they were more maroon. Okay, cool....but they're also maroon now. I wasn't wrong.
.
I'm obviously wrong sometimes, we all are. But here, in this instance, you haven't revealed it. Separate from this, I'm often debating with someone who cites sources that are obviously slanted and flawed....by people in the bubble, so to speak. Yes, another one of my opinions. I don't find it a worthwhile exercise to deal with that, so I guess it looks like I'm running away or whatever - I don't much care. Countering with some other source from some other bubble are wasted moments that none of us will ever get back.
.
Facts no longer matter. Thanks to whoever is responsible for that. I doubt we'd agree on who that is.

Facts do, and always will matter- if your mind is open enough to to see them.

https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf
here are some facts about New York- from New York. They were sounding the alarm for Cuomo in 2015. Very specifically saying your not going to have nearly enough ventilators in the case of a flu- like pandemic. They even gave an estimate of how many they would be short: 15000.

the report also discusses other factors related to why NYC would be ver susceptible to such a pandemic.

Now- we can certainly form different opinions around these facts. That is our right thankfully. But there needs to be a baseline of understanding of the facts- and I believe ( my opinion) that much has been said and written in our media that is clearly void of these facts and in some cases in direct contradiction of them.

I would certainly respect your opinion about this report should you choose to read it.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #1265 on:** April 05, 2020, 07:27:59 AM »

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

Another one I found interesting. (This one has some politics in it, in effect.)

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1266 on:** April 05, 2020, 09:01:11 AM »

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 04, 2020, 08:51:12 PM

Social Security is not an “entitlement” program. It’s an earned benefits program. Those who claim the benefit, paid into it on every single paycheck they got while they were working, as did their employer. Social security has brought in far more money than it pays out in benefits ever since Reagan raised the payroll tax.

There was a nearly $3 trillion surplus. What happened to the surplus. Congress spent it.

Easy way to refill the coffers- remove the $128,000 cap on payroll tax.

Another easy way to fix it. Stop letting Congress spend that money. Set up a sovereign wealth fund and invest in stocks and real estate, or loan money to banks or Fortune 500 companies and charge them interest.

Exactly right. My people (and me) pay their half out of their paychecks, and I pay the other half with the payroll taxes. One of these I might go back and see exactly what that other half cost me since inception, but maybe not.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #1267 on:** April 05, 2020, 09:24:17 AM »

I'm amused/amazed at how the term "entitlement" has been eroded. Of course SS is an entitlement program.

My car insurance is an entitlement program. It entitles me to be reimbursed in case my car is damaged.

SS entitle me to certain payments according to age and previous income.

It's just a word, it's not a bad word at all.

And Congress did NOT "spend the surplus". That is idiotic.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1268 on:** April 05, 2020, 09:39:43 AM »

I don't know anything about a surplus. All I know is I've put a lot of money into that system and I'm entitled to receive it.

Of course, I'll never see all of what I've put in.

So, to me, it's just another tax. So, let's call it that.

See how that works?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #1269 on:** April 05, 2020, 09:46:51 AM »

The SS Trust Fund built up a surplus over the decades because of actuarial estimates - Baby Boomers coming into the benefit period. The surplus was in the trillions (still is). That money was invested in the most secure investment known to man. It generated some interest. This was by law from the beginnings of the SS system. The surplus had to be put somewhere, so legally it was mandated to be put in the most secure investment possible.

The surplus is now being applied to current benefits, which was always intended. The problem is it is apparently not sufficient and will be depleted somewhere around 2035, in which case if nothing is done benefit payments will be reduced to around 80% of current (reflecting the income from FICA taxes).

There are a number of ways to fix this problem of course, though it's easier to fix when done sooner rather than later, and Congress has no stomach for any of the fixes because they will alienate someone somewhere and will be used in political ads to claim Congressman X has raided SS.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #1270 on:** April 05, 2020, 10:01:33 AM »

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/491210-surgeon-general-this-is-going-to-be-the-hardest-and-the-saddest

I still see some on FB and other places arguing this whole thing is over blown and is really some nefarious plot to, well, something bad, martial law, etc.

The next couple of weeks might open some eyes and ears. Maybe some of this is because folks don't grasp exponentials intuitively?

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1271 on:** April 05, 2020, 10:17:29 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 06:18:30 PM

Why is that?

It's tough to say, but I think demographics play a part. Income level and overall health are probably big factors, but I did not drill into those, and I won't.

Municipality	Population	Percent W	Percent B	Covid-19 Cases
Birmingham	212000	22	73	376
Montgomery	200000	41	57	97
Huntsville	193000	68	30	126
Mobile	190000	48	51	168
Tuscaloosa	100000	55	43	44

Those are the 5 largest municipalities in the State of Alabama. The Covid-19 numbers I was able to get include the municipality and its county, and it is my assumption that the vast majority of the cases are in the municipality.

The State's total population is 4.8 Million. The State has 1,666 confirmed cases of Covid-19 today, which is about 0.035% of the State. In Birmingham metro, the rate of infection is 1.8%. The demographics are given in the table.

Now, it is impossible to draw any conclusions from this data as we are too early in the process. Current projections show that roughly 7 percent of the State's population will end up with the virus, with half of those hospitalized. The numbers for Birmingham would be staggering, if the percentages hold true.

Some states seem to be releasing demographic information, but it's not consistent by state.

https://atlantablackstar.com/2020/04/05/in-several-states-black-people-are-being-diagnosed-with-and-dying-from-covid-19-at-disproportionate-rates/

Interesting article.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #1272 on:** April 05, 2020, 10:28:58 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 04, 2020, 07:18:00 PM

Ehhh, the entitlement programs people bitch about are part of the discretionary budget, too. The ones everyone wants to keep are what you're referring to here.
And thanks for changing it to GDP, which has nothing to do with what I said.

Just to clarify, this is factually wrong.

The main entitlement programs (Social Security and Medicare, but there are a couple of others) are NOT part of the discretionary budget. They're part of the budget known as mandatory spending.

At the risk of sounding like Badge because we've gone OT, I'm not going to get into discussions of Social Security, the trust fund, etc here, even though I see many other factual or logical problems with what various people are stating. But I did want to clarify because people are arguing over discretionary budgets, what is an entitlement and what isn't, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandatory_spending

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1273 on:** April 05, 2020, 10:34:24 AM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 05, 2020, 10:28:58 AM

Just to clarify, this is factually wrong.

The main entitlement programs (Social Security and Medicare, but there are a couple of others) are NOT part of the discretionary budget. They're part of the budget known as mandatory spending.

At the risk of sounding like Badge because we've gone OT, I'm not going to get into discussions of Social Security, the trust fund, etc here, even though I see many other factual or logical problems with what various people are stating. But I did want to clarify because people are arguing over discretionary budgets, what is an entitlement and what isn't, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandatory_spending

I didn't know sounding like me was a risk.

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Mdot21

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Cincydawg

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Honestbuckeye

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Cincydawg

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847badgerfan

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Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

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Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

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betarhoalphadelta

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas