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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1288 on: April 05, 2020, 02:51:05 PM »
Facts do, and always will matter- if your mind is open enough to to see them. 

https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf
here are some facts about New York- from New York.  They were sounding the alarm for Cuomo in 2015.  Very specifically saying your not going to have nearly enough ventilators in the case of a flu- like pandemic.  They even gave an estimate of how many they would be short: 15000.

the report also discusses other factors related to why NYC would be ver susceptible to such a pandemic.

Now- we can certainly form different opinions around these facts.  That is our right thankfully. But there needs to be a baseline of understanding of the facts- and I believe ( my opinion) that much has been said and written in our media that is clearly void of these facts and in some cases in direct contradiction of them.

I would certainly respect your opinion about this report should you choose to read it.
thanks for the link. This plus that video you posted of Pelosi, the top health czar of NYC, and the mayor of NYC telling people to go out and enjoy China town and the virus is no big deal- sorta turns that whole this is Trump's fault narrative on it's entire head.

This is no ones fault but the CCP and the WHO. WHO bought hook line and sinker CCP propaganda and was telling other countries leadership not to ban travel to and from China and that it was safe. Trump was the only world leader in the entire freaking world who banned travel to and from China immediately.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1289 on: April 05, 2020, 02:51:29 PM »
You mean the sort of actuarial math and approach that goes into it?
Yeah. It turns people into numbers. That hurt, but that's reality at a time like this (maybe, hopefully not).
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1290 on: April 05, 2020, 02:52:25 PM »
It simply is false that Congress raided the SSTF and that is why there is a shortfall.  False, completely and utterly false, no matter how many times it is repeated.
Stated THAT way, you're correct. Congress didn't "raid" anything. 

But what @Mdot21 said is 100% accurate. The trust fund doesn't contain money. It contains T-bills. Both are assets, but they're very different kinds of assets.

The surplus was used by the social security trust fund to buy Treasury bonds. That meant the surplus money was given to the Treasury. And then Congress spent that money (and a lot more--remember we're in perennial deficits).

So the trust fund exists and it is chock full of Treasury bonds, which are slowly being depleted. You know how the trust fund is paid back? Either by additional Treasury borrowing (from someone other than Social Security), or by taxpayer dollars.

If you're not getting what I and @Mdot21 are saying, let me know. I have an analogy that I came up with that might clear it up. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1291 on: April 05, 2020, 02:59:34 PM »
I understand the situation quite clearly.  T bonds are assets.  If I buy one, the money has not somehow disappeared.  I get it back, with interest.

If the SSTF did not invest in T bonds, where should they put the money?

Assets are just that, assets.  You can say Congress has borrowed a lot of money over the years from insurance companies, investors, China, the Fed, etc., but that money has not magically disappeared.

The looming deficit in the SSTF has NOTHING TO DO WITH CONGRESS AND HOW MUCH THEY SPEND (other than they didn't fix the system).

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1292 on: April 05, 2020, 03:19:29 PM »
Just to clarify, this is factually wrong.

The main entitlement programs (Social Security and Medicare, but there are a couple of others) are NOT part of the discretionary budget. They're part of the budget known as mandatory spending.

Um, you're agreeing with me here.  I said the programs people bitch about are discretionary.  Food stamps and such.  These you mention here are the ones everyone likes and wants and are mandatory, as you said.  You're saying I'm wrong while agreeing with me.  
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MrNubbz

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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1294 on: April 05, 2020, 03:25:12 PM »
Social Security is not an “entitlement” program. It’s an earned benefits program. Those who claim the benefit, paid into it on every single paycheck they got while they were working, as did their employer. Social security has brought in far more money than it pays out in benefits ever since Reagan raised the payroll tax.

There was a nearly $3 trillion surplus. What happened to the surplus. Congress spent it.

Easy way to refill the coffers- remove the $128,000 cap on payroll tax.

Another easy way to fix it. Stop letting Congress spend that money. Set up a sovereign wealth fund and invest in stocks and real estate, or loan money to banks or Fortune 500 companies and charge them interest.
Well, this article on entitlement programs includes it, with the caveat that it is in some ways unlike the others.  But I take your point.

Somehow it seems that the easy ways to fix it aren't politically easy or they would have already been implemented.  Your suggestions might be "simple" and "workable," but the evidence indicates that they aren't easy to get passed into law.
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1295 on: April 05, 2020, 03:35:44 PM »
Your graph didn't negate my point.  That's the problem.  I say military spending is obscene and you provide a graph that shows it used to be worse.  That doesn't make the military budget prudent now, it just means it's always been obscene and used to be more so.
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I think it's called a "yeah, but what about this" strategy.  It's like I said OU's home jerseys are maroon and you post a pic from 1973 that shows they were more maroon.  Okay, cool....but they're also maroon now.  I wasn't wrong.
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I'm obviously wrong sometimes, we all are.  But here, in this instance, you haven't revealed it.  Separate from this, I'm often debating with someone who cites sources that are obviously slanted and flawed....by people in the bubble, so to speak.  Yes, another one of my opinions.  I don't find it a worthwhile exercise to deal with that, so I guess it looks like I'm running away or whatever - I don't much care.  Countering with some other source from some other bubble are wasted moments that none of us will ever get back.
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Facts no longer matter.  Thanks to whoever is responsible for that.  I doubt we'd agree on who that is.
You didn't offer one fact that says that defense spending is obscene.  That is your opinion.  Can you understand the difference?  Your opinion might be valid, but it is not a fact.
OU's jerseys are not and never have been maroon.  There's a fact.
So you're saying that the way to debate someone who won't stick to facts is to also not stick to facts?  Is that what you want to be saying?
I've "revealed" that you were wrong to the extent that you presented your opinion with no comparison and no context.  You've done nothing but reiterate your opinion as fact.
In my opinion, facts continue to matter, your opinion to the contrary notwithstanding.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1296 on: April 05, 2020, 03:38:30 PM »
I think when our defense spending is equal to that of the next 15 countries combined, that could be seen as a "fact" that it is obscene.  It's opinion of course, I don't know how anything could be otherwise.

Both parties spend like drunken sailors, I don't think that is a political comment.  We elect them.  I doubt anyone would get reelected for really making the effort to cut spending.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1297 on: April 05, 2020, 03:38:39 PM »
I understand the situation quite clearly.  T bonds are assets.  If I buy one, the money has not somehow disappeared.  I get it back, with interest.

If the SSTF did not invest in T bonds, where should they put the money?

Assets are just that, assets.  You can say Congress has borrowed a lot of money over the years from insurance companies, investors, China, the Fed, etc., but that money has not magically disappeared.

The looming deficit in the SSTF has NOTHING TO DO WITH CONGRESS AND HOW MUCH THEY SPEND (other than they didn't fix the system).
Ok... Let me go on then...

Assume that I'm a new college grad in my early 20s. I decide that for the purposes of my life, I'm actually going to get two jobs instead of one, because I have a particularly interesting "side hustle" that I can do for fun in addition to my career. 

So I get two jobs. 

  • The income from Job A goes into my left pocket. I define Job A as the one that pays the bills, i.e. my "mandatory spending". 
  • The income from Job B goes into my right pocket. That money becomes my "walking around money", i.e. all my discretionary spending.

Now, I'm a new college grad and can choose to live pretty spartan, and my mandatory bills don't consume all my spending. Prudently, I want to save that money and plan for the future. I may one day get married, have kids, and I'm sure my bills will go up significantly. 

Now, where do I save it? I've got a great idea! My right pocket is offering savings bonds, and promises that if I lend the excess money from my right pocket to my left pocket, it'll promise to pay me back with interest when I need to draw down on those assets. 

My right pocket is a bit of a spendthrift. And flush with not only the cash from Job B, but all the excess leftovers from Job A, it spends and spends and spends. It keeps creating bigger and bigger promises to the left pocket, but hey, I'm good for it, right? I have excellent credit!

Years and years go by. I get married, have kids, my conditions change and I find my left pocket needing to draw down those assets. 

So what do I do? The way I look at it, I have four options:

  • Work more hours at Job A. Obviously if my mandatory spending goes up, maybe I should be bringing in more money into left pocket. (This is akin to raising the payroll tax or removing the cap to allow the SSTF to keep growing). 
  • Work more at Job B, since you need to start paying back left pocket. (This is akin to raising income taxes to pay back the SSTF.)
  • Quit spending excess money out of right pocket. It's time for some serious austerity measures! Now instead of having walking-around money, Job B can go pay back Job A. Sure, my standard of living goes down, but at least I'm being fiscally sound. (This is akin to Congress reducing discretionary spending, which we all know ain't happening.)
  • Find some new source of money... Hey, maybe right pocket can borrow money from the Chinese to pay back left pocket. Maybe right pocket can max out its credit cards to pay back left pocket. I mean, this causes my overall debt load as a person to get much, much worse, but at least left pocket is getting paid back! (This is akin to the federal deficit increasing much more quickly than it would without a growing SSTF.)

But you're right... None of right pocket's spending is responsible for left pocket needing to draw down the assets it has built up. 

But that doesn't change the fact that every one of #1 through #4 is a bad move for @bwarbiany -- who wears the damn pants. 

Now, the other option would have been if left pocket had been loaning YOU the excess money over the years, @Cincydawg -- it would have meant that right pocket didn't have as much hidden income to overspend in the past, but it also would mean that it wouldn't require more earning power from @bwarbiany to pay back the assets to myself.

The American taxpayer thinks it has an asset to draw down on, in the SSTF. But that asset comes from our own tax dollars (or deficit borrowing), so it's not like "we" are helped by some magical trust fund that's full of money. The SSTF is a claim on future taxpayers. The only difference is that it has to be funded from income taxes rather than payroll taxes. If you want to call that an "asset", well as one of the non-retired guys paying those income taxes, it certainly seems like a burden to me. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1298 on: April 05, 2020, 03:45:17 PM »
Um, you're agreeing with me here.  I said the programs people bitch about are discretionary.  Food stamps and such.  These you mention here are the ones everyone likes and wants and are mandatory, as you said.  You're saying I'm wrong while agreeing with me. 
Ahh, I misunderstood you. To be fair, you weren't perfectly clear lol 


Quote
Ehhh, the entitlement programs people bitch about are part of the discretionary budget, too. 


I had no clue you were talking about things like food stamps (SNAP). When you said "the entitlement programs" I thought you were talking about the bulk of them (SS & Medicare), which are the lion's share of mandatory spending. I hadn't meant that the programs "people bitch about" was a particular subset you didn't name. 

That said, SNAP is part of the mandatory spending portion too. It's not discretionary. 

CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1299 on: April 05, 2020, 03:48:03 PM »
Um, you're agreeing with me here.  I said the programs people bitch about are discretionary.  Food stamps and such.  These you mention here are the ones everyone likes and wants and are mandatory, as you said.  You're saying I'm wrong while agreeing with me.
You know, you are the only one who is discussing this in terms of "programs people bitch about."  Could you provide a brief list of these programs, along with your sources of information (rather than your opinion)?
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1300 on: April 05, 2020, 03:49:34 PM »
I made a new thread for discussion like this one.
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Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1301 on: April 05, 2020, 04:08:13 PM »
CWSooner, yes it is. 

When you include EVERYTHING in the total “defense” budget it’s over $1.2 TRILLION dollars.

 

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