Did the B1G make the right call rejecting Mizzou?
Probably, it depends how things work out in the next round of realignment.
This was all about fanbase size (after academics, of course). Missouri is much more populous than Nebraska but as noted above, Nebraska has numerous fans outside of Nebraska. Mizzou is probably only the majority in part of their own state and I doubt they have more than a handfull of out-of-state fans.
I think it had more to do with growth and growth potential than with current population. IMHO, Big Jim always wanted to move SE. Maryland made sense because it opened that door and because Maryland is in (or at least adjacent to) the DC Metro area.
DC is the 8th most populous Metro Area in North America and 6th in the US. Here are the biggest:
- NYC - quasi in the B1G via Rutgers, and that is why Rutgers was added.
- LA - Nowhere close geographically so not a possibility.
- Chicago - Solidly B1G Country.
- DFW - Nowhere close geographically so not a possibility unless Texas decides they want to join.
- Houston - See DFW.
- DC - quasi in the B1G via Maryland.
- Philly - quasi in the B1G via PSU.
- Miami, FL - Nowhere close geographically so not a possibility.
- ATL - Probably not a possibility but GaTech does get mentioned from time-to-time.
- Boston - Probably not a possibility and not terribly desirable because it is NOT a CFB town.
- San Fran - Nowhere close geographically and not a CFB town.
- PHX - Nowhere close geographically.
- Inland Empire, CA - Nowhere close geographically and not a CFB town.
- Detroit - Solidly B1G Country.
- Seattle - Nowhere close geographically.
- Minneapolis/St Paul - Solidly B1G Country.
- San Diego - Nowhere close geographically.
- Tampa - Nowhere close geographically.
- Denver - Colorado actually does border the B1G now (NE) but this is still FAR from the core of the league.
- St Louis - In theory Mizzou would add this but I question to what extent and to what extent the B1G doesn't already have STL based on Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, and others.
- Baltimore - In the B1G via Maryland
- Charlotte - NC is what Big Jim always wanted, IMHO.
- Portland - Nowhere close geographically.
- Orlando - Nowhere close geographically.
- San Antonio - see DFW/Houston.
- Pittsburgh - In the B1G via PSU and tOSU.
- Sacramento - Nowhere close geographically.
- Cincy - In the B1G via tOSU.
- Vegas - Nowhere close geographically.
- KC - In theory Mizzou would add this but I would be there are more UNL fans than Mizzou fans in KC anyway (3 hours from Lincoln, 2 hours from Columbia).
- Cleveland - In the B1G via tOSU.
- Columbus - Solidly B1G Country.
- Austin - See DFW/Houston/SA.
- Indianapolis - Solidly B1G Country.
The list I used shows the 50 most populous Metro Areas in N. America and the other 16 are in Mexico, Canada, the Caribbean, and Central America.
Here are the B1G states by population (2020 Est) along with 2010-2020 growth:
- #5 PA, 12.8M, 0.6%, 81k
- #6 IL, 12.6M, -1.9%, -243k
- #7 OH, 11.7M, 1.4%, 157k
- #10 MI, 10M, 0.8%, 83k (Michigan was #8 right behind OH in the 2010, census and had been #8 since being passed by FL between the 1970 and 1980 census). GA and NC both passed them since the 2010 census.
- #11 NJ, 8.9M, 1.0%, 90k
- #17 IN, 6.8M, 4.2%, 271k
- #19 MD, 6.1M, 4.9%, 282k
- #20 WI, 5.8M, 2.6%, 146k
- #22 MN, 5.7M, 6.7%, 353k
- #31 IA, 3.2M, 3.8%, 117k
- #37 NE, 1.9M, 6.1%, 111k
The structural problem facing the B1G in the long-term is slow growth compared to the rest of the country. The five most populous states in the league's footprint are basically stagnant and the faster growing states are so small that their growth isn't significant anyway.
Missouri fits in nicely with the exisiting, slow growing B1G states. They are 18th and grew by 2.7% or 163k from 2010-2020.
States and territories growing by double-digit percentages from 2010-2020:
- 18.5%, DC, 111k
- 17.6%, UT, 486k
- 16.8%, TX, 4.2M
- 16.5%, ID, 259k
- 16.2%, NV, 438k
- 16.1%, AZ, 1M
- 15.6%, FL, 2.9M
- 15.5%, CO, 779k
- 14.4%, WA, 969k
- 13.8%, ND, 93k
- 12.8%, SC, 593k
- 11.2%, NC, 1.1M
- 10.7%, OR, 410k
- 10.6%, GA, 1M
Additionally, the 12th most populous state VA grew by 7.4% or 590k from 2010-2020.
Most of those fast growing states are either too far away or too small to consider. The exceptions, IMHO, are VA and NC. That is why I've always thought that we turned down Mizzou because they are a slow growing state like nearly all of the existing B1G states and the league's long-term goal is to add those two states. The eventual additions will likely be either UVA or VaTech and either UNC or NCST. My guess is that the ACC will collapse/merge and the B1G will take UVA and UNC while the SEC takes VaTech and NCST setting up two in-state B1G/SEC rivalries.
