Musk / DOGE optics:
I have a thought and I'd like to hear what
@SFBadger96 thinks because I know he'll approach it from a different ideological perspective.
I'm not looking to get into a discussion of the politics or legality of doing this or how it is being done so much as trying to forecast how the electorate will view it.
I think there is a dangerous trap here for the Democrats and I've seen some Democrats that looked like they were carefully trying to avoid it and others who just seemed determined to rush headlong into it.
I think we've all heard stories of $1,500 hammers and $2,500 toilet seats and the dangerous trap for the Democrats, I think, is that Musk and DOGE will find at least SOME fraud/waste/abuse even if they are comically incompetent.
According to the Treasury Department's website the Federal Government spent $6.75 Trillion Dollars in Fiscal 2024. Written out that is $6,750,000,000,000. Fraud, waste, and abuse exist in any large organization, that is just reality (I've done enough auditing to assure you of that). In an organization this big, there is simply bound to be a LOT of fraud. Consider:
10% of Federal Spending is $675 Billion. 1% of Federal Spending is $67.5 Billion. 0.1% of Federal Spending is $6.75 Billion. 0.01% of Federal Spending is $675 Million Suppose Musk finds 0.01% that are things that the vast majority of Americans would agree are fraudulent, wasteful, or abusive. That would actually be a really unimpressive amount (viewed as a percentage, consultants do better than that before lunch). That is still $675 Million which still *SOUNDS LIKE* a LOT of money and it is . . . but . . .
The trap for the Democrats is that it would be devastating for them to be seen as the party defending $1,500 hammers and $2,500 toilet seats. They cannot allow themselves to be the party of Fraud, Waste, and Abuse*. Trump/Musk/DOGE are simply bound to find a few $1,500 hammers and $2,500 toilet seats and those will be millstones around the necks of Democrats electoral chances if the Democrats come to be seen as the party protecting Fraud, Waste, and Abuse.
I think that puts the D's in a difficult situation because their position is inherently nuanced. Musk's position is definitively NOT nuanced:
VIDEO https://youtu.be/nkMVb0RNptA?si=Fz414qrQw8UDylZa In politics the more nuanced position is a LOT harder to advance.
That said, I think that Trump (being Trump) threw the Democrats a lifeline and as near as I can tell, they are avoiding grabbing it.
Trump has kicked around the idea of "DOGE Dividend checks". This sounded brilliant to me at first but then I realized the pitfall. Lets say Trump/Musk/DOGE find and eliminate 0.01% of Federal Spending but that the Democrats can at least somewhat credibly point to a few things that at least close to a majority of voters would not have wanted to cut.
If the comparison is $675 Million vs some obscure Federal Program I think the Democrats lose badly but there are 340 Million Americans. If the comparison is $1.99 per person vs some obscure Federal Program I think the Democrats win, or at least tie. If we "only" saved $2 per person then the good work of some obscure Federal Program probably isn't worth it to most people but if that comparison is $675 Million it probably is.
This scale issue is why car dealers always want to sell you options by monthly payment.
Example #1:
Dealer: Do you want a sunroof?
Customer: How much?
Dealer: $1,000.
Customer: I'll pass, not worth a grand to me.
Example #2:
Dealer: Do you want a sunroof?
Customer: How much?
Dealer: $20/month.
Customer: I'll take it, it is worth 20 bucks to feel the wind in my hair.
*When I worked for the Ohio Auditor of State's Office we had a division that we all called FWAP. It was Fraud, Waste, and Abuse Prevention. Back then they mostly tracked food stamp fraud and it was RAMPANT. It was so bad that their primary investigative tool was to simply do drive-bys of the grocery stores. Just from that, the ones that were heavily engaged in fraud were readily apparent. Ie, if
@SFBadger96 and
@medinabuckeye1 both own grocery stores in the same neighborhood and a drive-by shows that they appear to be equally sized and have approximately the same number of customers but one of them is turning in 100x the volume of food stamps, that one is engaging in food stamp fraud. Now you just need to find the proof.
