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Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38640 on: October 30, 2024, 04:01:15 PM »

So "NOT NYC" would have voted D in the last three elections but it is relatively close, by about 360k in 2020, by 440k in 2012 and by about 70k in 2016. 

Did you include the entire NYC metropolitan area, not just NYC proper? 

That could easily flip it the other way. 

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38641 on: October 30, 2024, 04:06:18 PM »
I guess I am less sure what it is checking and balancing nowadays. and how much that particular thing has value.

Like, it was designed for a time when almost none of us would ever leave our state unless we lived on a border. And when states were principle units of a country. And an era where some of us probably couldn’t vote at all. I think that’s broken up to a degree with different communications, movement patterns and such.

It’s all just different ways to get a majority/large plurality. I tend to prefer just votes (one person, one vote). Others prefer the clunky uneven blocks that are states.
I'm curious your thoughts on this:
Every time I visit Wisconsin I'm reminded that as much as we have in common, Wisconsin is also culturally very different than California. It is unfair to expect Wiconsinites to live as Californians, or Californians to live as Wisconsinites. That's true in other places, too, but I visit and stay in Wisconsin more than other places.
And as much as I just said the rural/urban divide is the same everywhere, the truth is that a rural Wisconsinite is also different than a rural Californian. Now, Oregon and California (both kinds) much closer to each other. Our regional differences definitely exist--it's not just Wisconsin, it's the midwest, and the big sky states, and the southwest, and Texas, and the south, and the mid-Atlantic, etc. Now, my Mainer relatives would chaff at me saying they are the same as people in Vermont, but Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine is a pretty consistent spectrum, that is pretty different even than Massachusetts, and definitely from Connecticut.
So where to draw arbitrary lines? Who knows. But from a tought experiment perspective, it was good for me to see that the rural/urban impact of the EC is not as disadvantageous as it is currently drawn than I thought it was.

MaximumSam

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38642 on: October 30, 2024, 04:13:37 PM »
Really, isn't the electoral college doing what it was ultimately designed to do? 

I see it as another check/balance type deal. 
No. The electoral college was not created to protect rural voters. To the extent that it was created to do anything, it was to put a wall of separation between the people voting and the actual elected president. Further, it was created to put a wall of separation between the president and the legislature. The original idea was that the electors would actually do the voting and electing, as opposed to the present system where they are just glorified symbols. 

It never really worked as intended, but it was at least intended to do something. Presently, the way it works now, is completely stupid and if you tried to come up with this system to elect anything of consequence you would be laughed out of the room. The power of inertia is deep.

SuperMario

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38643 on: October 30, 2024, 04:15:33 PM »
Well I do believe in real free speech. And this is a message board.

However, I would like to believe we are better than most message boards.  I would like to believe there is a bit of sense of community here.  After all, I have been giving and receiving a share of thoughts and time with you bastards for 20 years.  Hell, when I started, I had hair and metabolism. 😂

Seriously- we can argue and disagree( which do very well) without the rants that go overboard.  I can see that in a lot of places on social media- but don’t want to, which is why ( believe it or not) this is the only place I post and participate in. 

We talk CFB, politics, food, cars, movies, books, current events, lots of chili, pretty much name it.
I had a full book response written here and then chrome decided to crap itself. In a nutshell, really appreciate you and SFbadge specifically and love when you guys are posting on here and giving perspective. Similar views on a lot, but the differences presented in a way that is cool and calming and worth considering and the reason i've stuck around for over 20 years, while interacting almost nowhere else on social media. The first type up of it was far better, but i'm so annoyed i lost it all this is the best summation i got lol. 

bayareabadger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38644 on: October 30, 2024, 04:16:21 PM »
Did you include the entire NYC metropolitan area, not just NYC proper?

That could easily flip it the other way.
I started to break out the map a little bit. Even if you take out Long Island and Westchester, it’s pretty much a draw.

Looking at it county by county, The corridor north of the city of Albany seems to be either even or blue leaning. Plus, a lot of the other bigger cities in the state that aren’t in that corner of it.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38645 on: October 30, 2024, 04:17:36 PM »
Did you include the entire NYC metropolitan area, not just NYC proper?

That could easily flip it the other way.
 I did NYC proper because that was readily available on the interwebs.  

Metro area would change it but it would also be a LOT more complicated because most of the non-NYC Proper NYC Metro area isn't in New York State.  I don't *THINK* it would flip it for two reasons:
  • I don't think there are THAT many people in Yonkers and White Plains, and
  • I assume that the people in Yonkers and White Plains (and surrounding areas) are probably less monolithically Democratic anyway so for every 10 people you moved from "NOT NYC" to NYC you'd be moving something like 6-8 D's and 2-4 R's for a net change of just 2-6.  

Even within the Boroughs, in 2020 Biden won:
  • 86.4% in Manhattan
  • 83.3% in the Bronx
  • 76.8% in Brooklyn
  • 72.0% in Queens
  • 42.0% in Staten Island (lost to Trump who won 56.9%).  
When you pull out areas that are close to 9:1 Democrat, you can even things out quickly but outside of Manhattan there probably aren't that many such areas.  


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38646 on: October 30, 2024, 04:22:26 PM »
It's not about red and blue, although that happens to be the way it breaks down.  It's about the rural or lower-populated areas, still having a voice.  The fact that the rural communities tend to vote differently, and oftentimes opposite, the big cities, is giving us direct insight into how they view themselves and their needs.  This data, this information, should be cherished and analyzed, as a means to trying to understand one another better.  The one-sided echo chambers steeped in their own rhetoric, are the real hazard to democracy.
I feel like Brad’s point and some of this discussion get us to a central point.

States and their composition are kind of random. The EC treats them as one unit, and that’s always going to create some friction because of that natural diversity.
IMHO the EC is less of an issue than governance in general, because the President is the executive branch and not the legislative branch.

To the extent that they're electing members of the HoR, it's a local issue entirely. So the red parts of CA get R representatives and the blue parts get D representatives. The Senate invariably gets less granular, so a red guy in CA can't get an R Senator and a blue guy in WY can't get a D Senator, which obviously makes it difficult because in most places moving to a different state for different political representation is infeasible unless you work on/near a border. Certainly not feasible here in Orange County because the nearest state (NV) is a 4 hour drive. 

But that's why I tried to break it down the way I did. As I mentioned, the Central Valley farmers are all constantly pissed off because they think that Sacramento is selling out their water rights to us down here in the SoCal cities. They definitely feel even in their own state that they're not represented. Same with the "state of Jefferson" people--they're farmers and ranchers, in some of the most rural areas in CA and OR, and they simply don't have enough population to get their voices heard in Sacramento or Salem. 

It's also why I don't think Orange County fits with rural Southern California. We're a rich, coastal, suburban to lightly urban, county. It's true that we're a pretty solidly red county, but our needs from a governance perspective fit LA or San Diego counties more than they do Imperial or Kern counties. We just don't like the way they govern in LA so we do it differently; we actually enforce crimes, for example...

This is first and foremost why federalism is important. There are some policies of governance that by nature NEED to be very different for me in Orange County as they would someone in rural Wyoming, despite the fact that we may vote for the same political party. Unless a policy MUST be federal and uniform coast to coast, they should be as local as possible. 

But it's also why massive states like California or Texas don't make sense. Because California or Texas aren't homogenous, so just like the difference between Orange County and rural Wyoming, the governance needs between Austin (Travis County) with a population of >1.3M and Deaf Smith County (picked purely due to funny name) with a population of <19K are going to be very different. 

The bigger the polity, the harder it is to serve everyone. Which is why I see the concept that @SFBadger96 put together as a really interesting discussion, but would make it about governance, not about the Electoral College. 

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38647 on: October 30, 2024, 04:23:06 PM »
Hmmm. The idea of an electoral college itself may not have been to protect rural voters, but the inclusion of the total of senators and members of the house in determining the number of electoral college votes that a state gets was.

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38648 on: October 30, 2024, 04:26:21 PM »

It's also why I don't think Orange County fits with rural Southern California. We're a rich, coastal, suburban to lightly urban, county. It's true that we're a pretty solidly red county, but our needs from a governance perspective fit LA or San Diego counties more than they do Imperial or Kern counties. We just don't like the way they govern in LA so we do it differently; we actually enforce crimes, for example...
You're all SoCal to me. :-)

utee94

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38649 on: October 30, 2024, 04:31:26 PM »
You're all SoCal to me. :-)
And y'all are both just Left Coast to me. :)

ELA

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38650 on: October 30, 2024, 04:34:06 PM »
I thought most of us were just flyover states?

Honestbuckeye

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38651 on: October 30, 2024, 04:36:00 PM »
I had a full book response written here and then chrome decided to crap itself. In a nutshell, really appreciate you and SFbadge specifically and love when you guys are posting on here and giving perspective. Similar views on a lot, but the differences presented in a way that is cool and calming and worth considering and the reason i've stuck around for over 20 years, while interacting almost nowhere else on social media. The first type up of it was far better, but i'm so annoyed i lost it all this is the best summation i got lol.
I HATE it when that happens.   

yes- you and many others here are damn close to family since we have been together so long. 
yeah- like family we fight sometimes but that’s normal.  It’s a better place because we have a lot of long timers who stay engaged.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38652 on: October 30, 2024, 04:36:53 PM »
That checks out, but I'd cheer for the Dallas Cowboys before I would cheer for the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Although when you mix in Orange County, San Diego, and the areas north of Los Angeles, I'd pull for SoCal over Texas. So who freaking knows.

People are stoopit.

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #38653 on: October 30, 2024, 04:39:35 PM »
I thought most of us were just flyover states?
Maybe it's the brief moments in my life that I lived in Wisconsin and Tennessee, but that notion really pisses me off. Like a lot.

 

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