What worries me about China/Taiwan is TSMC. I know
@utee94 knows what I'm talking about here.
Right now the West (led by the US) is in a technology embargo war with China. We're restricting exports of the tools they need to build advanced semiconductors.
TSMC is a HUGE linchpin in the global semiconductor market, and based (of course) in Taiwan. Their value can't be overstated to people outside the industry. And semiconductors are, to a large extent, the lifeblood of the modern economy. Essentially every electronic device you own has some semi content in it. Not just your phone, or your PC. I'm talking about your smoke detector. I'm talking about your coffeemaker. Your stove. Your car is full of them. Basically any device that uses electricity is using a modern semiconductor.
If China is being blocked (by the US) from the tech necessary to create advanced semis, do they roll the dice and say "well we're going to simply take it from TSMC"? If they try to do so, does TSMC get sabotaged internally or bombed externally to take it away from China?
W/O TSMC, the global economy will be
decimated. At that point it doesn't matter if we or China win; everyone is royally screwed. TSMC is in Taiwan. China thinks they own Taiwan. We're poking China. What will they do?
The rational answer is nothing. Because the demise of TSMC will hurt China terribly. But as Cincy says, we thought Putin would act rationally. And look at how that turned out.
This (among other things) is what keeps me up at night.