header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: 2019 NFL Draft

 (Read 10326 times)

Mdot21

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 6103
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #84 on: March 14, 2019, 11:36:48 AM »
The short answer is becuase almost no QBs become great QBs.
It’s a fallacy to isolate one part of the group and say “look how bad it is.” Most QBs fail.
And by this metric, you have Cannon-arm Joe Flacco at 96-67. Dude was drafted for that cannon, has a great record, and there’s just not that much to deduce from it.
Joe Flacco sucks. He had a couple years where he played like shit in the regular season then got hot in the playoffs. Fluke playoff runs. It happens. See: Manning, Eli. And just like Eli, everything else about him basically sucks.

Mdot21

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 6103
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #85 on: March 14, 2019, 11:44:53 AM »
Dwayne Haskins carried a team that was marred in a coaching controversy where the head coach was suspended for 4 games, had difficulty running the football for most of the season, lost it's best defensive player for the entire year, and had a mostly terrible defense for 90% of the season- to a 13-1 record.

Let that sink in for a second. He literally carried that team to 13-1 with his right arm. There were games where if he wasn't throwing for 400 yards and 4 or 5 TD's, Ohio State would lose. He absolutely shredded the then #1 defense in the country and dropped 60 on them. This kid just threw for 4,900 yards and 50 touchdowns vs only 8 INT's and shattered every single season passing record in a conference that actually plays defense- unlike the Big 12.

He measured 6'3-3/8" and 231 pounds at the combine. Basically 6'3 1/2. Over 230 pounds. Rocket arm. Deadly accurate. By far the best pure passer/thrower of the football in this draft.

HOW THE F is he not considered a lock for the #1 pick? I honestly don't get it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06yu8jfZwZI
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 11:53:05 AM by Mdot21 »

bayareabadger

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 4866
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #86 on: March 14, 2019, 01:08:47 PM »
Joe Flacco sucks. He had a couple years where he played like shit in the regular season then got hot in the playoffs. Fluke playoff runs. It happens. See: Manning, Eli. And just like Eli, everything else about him basically sucks.
Correct. Most everyone sucks. So if you make a list of cannon arms and 25 percent of them were some kind of solid, you’re ahead of the numbers. 

Mdot21

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 6103
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #87 on: March 14, 2019, 01:34:07 PM »
Correct. Most everyone sucks. So if you make a list of cannon arms and 25 percent of them were some kind of solid, you’re ahead of the numbers.
Most of the all-time greats didn't have the rocket arm. I'd argue the 3 greatest QB's I've ever seen were Brady, Peyton, and Montana. None of them had a cannon. Neither did Steve Young or Drew Brees or Kurt Warner and those are also 3 all-time greats. Elway and Marino were really the only all-time greats with the cannon arms. Rodgers will be in that convo when he's finished for sure. Maybe Favre too, but I honestly think he's a little overrated. He has big stats but he played for 21 years. Favre also threw more INT's than anyone in history and he lost more big playoff games than he actually won. I just have so many memories of the guy choking and throwing INT's in the worst moments of big games.
QB'ing is just about so much more then arm strength. It's really only meaningful when the guy has everything else. Which is why I think Haskins is so special. He seems to have the stuff you really need- good pocket presence, reading defenses fast and making smart, quick decisions and throwing the ball accurately with timing. He just happens to also have the cannon.

MaximumSam

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 9824
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #88 on: March 14, 2019, 02:04:52 PM »
Haskins has question marks about his ability to face pressure and read zone defenses.  But he had some Tom Brady like abilities to quickly read the defense and deliver a really accurate ball.

Mdot21

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 6103
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #89 on: March 14, 2019, 02:41:05 PM »
Haskins has question marks about his ability to face pressure and read zone defenses.  But he had some Tom Brady like abilities to quickly read the defense and deliver a really accurate ball.
Every pocket QB struggles when they are pressured all game long. Even Brady and Peyton have had some absolute stinker games when they were pressured all game long. No one is perfect. Haskins good far outweighed his bad.

Haskins reads defenses very well and he gets rid of the ball quickly. He just throws the ball so effortlessly. He's just a really natural thrower of the football. He's accurate as hell but he's also got the arm strength to make any throw on the field.

And honestly he really doesn't put the ball in harms way that much. He threw only 8 INT's vs 50 TD's. But he threw the football 533 times and still only had 8 INT's. That's kinda crazu. Kyler Murray threw 7 INT's- but he threw the football 377 times. Haskins threw the football 156 times more than Murray, yet he only had 1 more INT- and he still completed a higher % of his throws than Murray.

In 22 games played and 14 starts, Haskins has thrown for 5,396 yards, completed 70% of his passes, and thrown for 54 TD's vs. 9 INT's. That's insanity.

bayareabadger

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 4866
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #90 on: March 14, 2019, 02:45:30 PM »
Most of the all-time greats didn't have the rocket arm. I'd argue the 3 greatest QB's I've ever seen were Brady, Peyton, and Montana. None of them had a cannon. Neither did Steve Young or Drew Brees or Kurt Warner and those are also 3 all-time greats. Elway and Marino were really the only all-time greats with the cannon arms. Rodgers will be in that convo when he's finished for sure. Maybe Favre too, but I honestly think he's a little overrated. He has big stats but he played for 21 years. Favre also threw more INT's than anyone in history and he lost more big playoff games than he actually won. I just have so many memories of the guy choking and throwing INT's in the worst moments of big games.
QB'ing is just about so much more then arm strength. It's really only meaningful when the guy has everything else. Which is why I think Haskins is so special. He seems to have the stuff you really need- good pocket presence, reading defenses fast and making smart, quick decisions and throwing the ball accurately with timing. He just happens to also have the cannon.
I think Manning had a big arm. Warner threw deep a ton. Rogers deep ball is plenty majestic. Montana, Brady and Brees are probably in the good enough arm category. 
I wonder if there’s a selection bias. The guys we think about a “big arms” is in some way linked to that being more notable than their actual success.
Also, if we assume 90-plus percent of QBs are not great, we can look at the greats and realize there’s no pattern beyond just being super good at playing QB. Shoot, that’s the bet, wrong or right on Murray. 

bayareabadger

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 4866
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #91 on: March 14, 2019, 02:47:45 PM »
Dwayne Haskins carried a team that was marred in a coaching controversy where the head coach was suspended for 4 games, had difficulty running the football for most of the season, lost it's best defensive player for the entire year, and had a mostly terrible defense for 90% of the season- to a 13-1 record.

Let that sink in for a second. He literally carried that team to 13-1 with his right arm. There were games where if he wasn't throwing for 400 yards and 4 or 5 TD's, Ohio State would lose. He absolutely shredded the then #1 defense in the country and dropped 60 on them. This kid just threw for 4,900 yards and 50 touchdowns vs only 8 INT's and shattered every single season passing record in a conference that actually plays defense- unlike the Big 12.

He measured 6'3-3/8" and 231 pounds at the combine. Basically 6'3 1/2. Over 230 pounds. Rocket arm. Deadly accurate. By far the best pure passer/thrower of the football in this draft.

HOW THE F is he not considered a lock for the #1 pick? I honestly don't get it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06yu8jfZwZI
To a large degree, I agree with this. 
He’s basically the archetype of players who get over drafted. But he’s not considered that sort. I have a sorta hot take question, but probably left unasked. 

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 43729
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #92 on: March 14, 2019, 03:51:23 PM »
Haskins had one of the quietest extremely good seasons I can recall.  Maybe he didn't have enough "highlight plays"?  I'd see a quick blurb with his passing for a completion, fine, done.

Mdot21

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 6103
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #93 on: March 14, 2019, 07:15:39 PM »
I think Manning had a big arm. Warner threw deep a ton. Rogers deep ball is plenty majestic. Montana, Brady and Brees are probably in the good enough arm category.
I wonder if there’s a selection bias. The guys we think about a “big arms” is in some way linked to that being more notable than their actual success.
Also, if we assume 90-plus percent of QBs are not great, we can look at the greats and realize there’s no pattern beyond just being super good at playing QB. Shoot, that’s the bet, wrong or right on Murray.
Manning’s arm was nothing special. Same for Warner. Rodgers definitely has a bazooka though. 
Marino had the best arm I’ve ever seen. Elway probably next up. Rodgers is right in that convo as well though. 

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12310
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #94 on: March 14, 2019, 08:09:51 PM »
The guys we think about a “big arms” is in some way linked to that being more notable than their actual success.
This is the crux - we expect the results to match the arm, and it almost never does.
decision-making + accuracy > arm strength
but NFL GMs insist on the arm strength, to this day.



You obviously want all three, but if you can only have two, why to NFL GMs always pick arm strength first?  
Hell, doesn't good decision-making and a quick release basically equal out to a strong arm?  Think Aikman, Manning, those types.  If they know where to go with the ball and get rid of it quickly, a stronger arm becomes superfluous, no?
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 08:25:52 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12310
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #95 on: March 14, 2019, 08:14:59 PM »

Marino had the best arm I’ve ever seen. Elway probably next up. Rodgers is right in that convo as well though.
Here's the thing - there are other players in their class, but since they didn't pan out and don't have the name recognition, we don't cite them.  (Jeff George, Leftwich, Russell, Ryan Leaf).  Leaf vs Manning was only a thing because while Manning had intangibles, Leaf had the rocket arm.  Looking back, it was a silly debate, but because of Manning's decision-making and accuracy, not his superior arm strength.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12310
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #96 on: March 14, 2019, 08:16:24 PM »
Correct. Most everyone sucks. So if you make a list of cannon arms and 25 percent of them were some kind of solid, you’re ahead of the numbers.
Isn't this because decision-making and accuracy are hard to gauge?  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12310
  • Liked:
Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #97 on: March 14, 2019, 08:21:43 PM »


In 22 games played and 14 starts, Haskins has thrown for 5,396 yards, completed 70% of his passes, and thrown for 54 TD's vs. 9 INT's. That's insanity.
That's a small sample size.  Same for Murray.  Good reason to be wary.
Haskins' season rates between the best seasons by Bryce Petty (Baylor) and Colt McCoy (Texas).  How are they doing in the NFL?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.