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Topic: 2019 NFL Draft

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bayareabadger

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #98 on: March 14, 2019, 08:58:48 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 14, 2019, 08:09:51 PM
This is the crux - we expect the results to match the arm, and it almost never does.
decision-making + accuracy > arm strength
but NFL GMs insist on the arm strength, to this day.



You obviously want all three, but if you can only have two, why to NFL GMs always pick arm strength first?  
Hell, doesn't good decision-making and a quick release basically equal out to a strong arm?  Think Aikman, Manning, those types.  If they know where to go with the ball and get rid of it quickly, a stronger arm becomes superfluous, no?
You misunderstand. 
I'm saying if I remember someone as a "big arm," maybe it's because I don't remember him as a good QB. 
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #99 on: March 14, 2019, 09:01:02 PM »
Haskins is an accurate QB with NFL size. He's a lock for the Top 5. If he isn't the first QB taken, it's probably not because of him per se. I'd bet it'd be a mix of uncertainty in scouts' eyes for his college offense and the defensive schemes he faced. For the offense, he had a below average "avg depth of target." That's not his fault and not informative of his talent, but that's the point, it limits the predictive power of his college production. For the defenses he face, the NFL is almost all nickel and dime. And the Big Ten shows that way less often than the Big XII. In both of these, Kyler Murray has a chance to win over more scouts. Not because he promises to be better but because his statistical report card shows them more of what their eyes are trained to want. 
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bayareabadger

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #100 on: March 14, 2019, 09:02:58 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 14, 2019, 03:51:23 PM
Haskins had one of the quietest extremely good seasons I can recall.  Maybe he didn't have enough "highlight plays"?  I'd see a quick blurb with his passing for a completion, fine, done.
It was weird. He got a lot of milage out of crosses and screens, but also dropped some pure dimes. 
Maybe a worry about that offensive structure? I know OSU doesn't have a particularly robust passing scheme in terms of diversity. 
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #101 on: March 14, 2019, 09:11:03 PM »
Drafts are less about prospects' core features, which are hard to define. My wording here is a work in progress, but it's moreso about the prospects' surface decorations, things that are easily measured - stats/height/40 - and can be robotically correlated to NFL success.
It's just Moneyball.
Each high pick is a gamble based on spreadsheet heuristics. Excluding injuries and off-the-field brouhaha, behind every bust is a prospect whose lacking talent hides behind great heuristics. And behind every diamond in the rough is a prospect whose special talent hides behind bad heuristics.
And we can complain how dumb that is if we want, but that seems arrogant to me. Given the stakes (dollars), if a better way were proven, NFL box offices would already be using it. They aren't infallible, but the idea that you or I would do better is questionable.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 02:01:22 AM by Anonymous Coward »
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #102 on: March 15, 2019, 02:57:19 AM »
If it's moneyball, then the NFL is light years behind MLB.  
They no longer value the potential 5-tool athlete instead of the guy with bat-to-ball skills and mastery of the strike zone.  The entire MLB has gone the way of the A's and correctly valued on-base and power over stolen bases and defense.  They know not to draft Byron Buxton #2 anymore.  It doesn't matter how fast you are or how much power you have if you can't make contact.

You see the Browns making waves?  They took Paul DePodesta, formerly under Beane with the A's in MLB.  He's turning knobs and flipping switches.  There are AMPLE inefficiencies in talent evaluation in the NFL and he might just be the guy to take advantage.  
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #103 on: March 15, 2019, 08:00:29 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 14, 2019, 08:21:43 PM
That's a small sample size.  Same for Murray.  Good reason to be wary.
Haskins' season rates between the best seasons by Bryce Petty (Baylor) and Colt McCoy (Texas).  How are they doing in the NFL?
Neither of them were rated as the best pro prospect on the board either.Actually had McCoy been bigger  he would have been very good,he had guile,moxie,leadership - he started I believe all 4 seasons on the 40 acres.Maybe the best game manager I've seen in CFB.Let's just have a look at Tom Brady shall we - does Kyler Murray most resemble him?No Murray most resembles Lamar Jackson or Johnny Football,so meh.Murray may make a big splash but that will slow to a ripple after a few seasons
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 08:07:57 AM by MrNubbz »
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #104 on: March 15, 2019, 08:04:45 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 15, 2019, 02:57:19 AM
You see the Browns making waves?  They took Paul DePodesta, formerly under Beane with the A's in MLB.  He's turning knobs and flipping switches.  There are AMPLE inefficiencies in talent evaluation in the NFL and he might just be the guy to take advantage.  
Take advantage of exactly what?John Dorsey is calling the player personnel shots in Cleveland  :017:.DePodesta was brought in as an organizational guy
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 08:42:43 AM by MrNubbz »
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #105 on: March 15, 2019, 08:23:44 AM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 14, 2019, 07:15:39 PM
Marino had the best arm I’ve ever seen. Elway probably next up. Rodgers is right in that convo as well though.
Perhaps but Bradshaw could flip his wrists and the pigskin sailed 70yds.I know I've seen him do it in old Cleveland Stadium about 4-5 times.Flacco is another one he could launch it.Namath had a great arm also of course when your knees are oatmeal you can't plant very well.Testaverde,Kelly,Everitt were others that come to mind.Also totally forgot about Bert Jones,had like 3 great years before ripping the shoulder.He definitely had a howitzer
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 08:39:19 AM by MrNubbz »
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #106 on: March 15, 2019, 12:07:11 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 15, 2019, 08:04:45 AM
Take advantage of exactly what?John Dorsey is calling the player personnel shots in Cleveland  :017:.DePodesta was brought in as an organizational guy
What does that mean?  He's just an anonymous guy at a desk shuffling paperwork around?  Who is supplying Dorsey with information that is unique and helpful?
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #107 on: March 15, 2019, 01:06:43 PM »
Why don't you go re-read or edit your post you basically said Depodesta is the guy to take advantage of talent evaluation.That's how it came across - in Cleveland he doesn't evaluate talent - Dorsey does.What you posted perhaps isn't what you meant to say
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #108 on: March 15, 2019, 01:19:12 PM »
I know he isn't the GM, but here's a blurb on what he's tasked with doing:

DePodesta is tasked with implementing systems and processes to strengthen the Browns organization and decision making. In this role, he works closely with General Manager John Dorsey, Head Coach Hue Jackson and members of the player development, high performance and analytics departments to maximize efforts.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #109 on: March 15, 2019, 01:19:26 PM »
So yeah, I meant what I posted earlier.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #110 on: March 15, 2019, 01:27:29 PM »
I'm glad in your enchanted kingdom you understood it.Because it still red the same shitty way.DePodesta has been part of the problem not the solution
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Riffraft

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #111 on: March 15, 2019, 01:45:02 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 15, 2019, 01:27:29 PM
I'm glad in your enchanted kingdom you understood it.Because it still red the same shitty way.DePodesta has been part of the problem not the solution
Sorry, but Depodesta has been a great part of the solution. I suppose you are one of those that thing Sashi had no role in the great position that the Browns are in right now.
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