2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[SFBadger96]

Nah. I've had this phone number since 1998. Not gonna happen.

Bueno. Gotta stay true to yourself. 

And yeah, the Badgers didn't exactly put on a clinic last night, but they are playing for the conference championship Saturday morning, so...wow. Did not see that coming.

[MarqHusker]

Nice to see the juxtaposition of the Horizon League Tournament banners along side the B1G Tournament banners on the street.   Of course only the B1G gets a giant sculpture on the Circle and huge decals on the JW Marriott.

[bayareabadger]

I won't try to match basketball wits with you. The Badgers' swing offense is often one dimensional, even when that dimension isn't working, and they are bad at adjusting out of it to get the ball inside when they need to. Again, maybe a talent/skill problem. But a significant one, nonetheless.

I remain a teensy bit confused, what is the dimension you’re speaking of?

[ELA]

Attended my first ever conference tourney game last night, an NEC quarterfinal between Robert Morris and St. Francis(BKN).

It was the 1-8 (#1 Merrimack is ineligible due to a nonsensical NCAA rule...go figure), and looked that way early, RMU was up 14.  St. Francis came all the way back to go up 4 in the final 5 minutes, but then RMU responded with a 13-3 run to go up 6 with 40 seconds left.  But RMU had a turnover and two missed front ends, so SFU got the ball back with a chance to win, but hit a runner too hard off the glass and it rimmed out.

Almost had our first NIT auto-bid clinched in front of me, but RMU plays on

[SFBadger96]

I remain a teensy bit confused, what is the dimension you’re speaking of?

I'm not trying to be obtuse, and I'm surprised that you see a multi-dimensional offense. What I see on a massive percentage of possessions: 4 out, 1 in; 1-guard advances ball, passes to O-3 on the wing or the 2-guard, who then looks for O-4 on the other wing. Wing player looks for pass to O-5 on post (rarely has it), swings back to guard (or whichever player has run his blocks back to the O-1 or O-2 spots. Rinse, repeat. Pass to O-5 when available. O-5, when he has it, looks for shot from there, with limited creativity with the ball. Little dribbling/cutting with the ball to attack the paint (Davison does the most). Over-simplified? Yes. Reuvers is the high scorer? Yes (at least I think he still is). Does it work? Yes, most of the time.

But when it doesn't, the Badgers have very little ability to do anything else.

[medinabuckeye1]

No surprises last night so no changes to the projections.  

As far as the NCAA: 

• Indiana most likely locked up a bid last night.  
• Michigan is either already a lock or will be with one more win (most likely tonight at home against Nebraska)
• Purdue kept their at-large hopes alive with the upset win in Iowa City
• Minnesota is now probably in "need to win BTT" territory.  No team has ever received an at-large bid with more than 15 losses and Minnesota would have at least 17 if they are in the at-large discussion.  

Minnesota's best-case-scenario short of winning the BTT:

• Beat Nebraska at home on Sunday to improve to 14-16 overall and 8-12 in B1G games
• Win the 12/13 game (almost certainly against Nebraska again) on Wednesday in Indy to improve to 15-16/9-12
• Beat the B1G's #5 seed next Thursday in Indy to improve to 16-16/10-12
• Beat the B1G's #4 seed next Friday in Indy to improve to 17-16/11-12
• Beat the B1G's #1 seed next Saturday in Indy to improve to 18-16/12-12
• Lose to the B1G's #2 seed next Sunday in Indy to drop to 18-17/12-13

That *MIGHT* get them in.  Being just barely over .500 and having two more losses than any previous at-large team are problems but they would have a LOT of quality wins and obviously the loss to the B1G Champion wouldn't be too damaging.  

What we know at this point:

• Minnesota became the first team to clinch their seed in the BTT.  They are in 12th place and can neither catch 11th nor be caught by anyone behind them so they will be the #12 seed and play next Wednesday at 6pm in Indy against the #13 seed (most likely Nebraska).  
• Maryland, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Illinois all control their own destiny for at least a share of the regular season title.  
• Penn State, Iowa, and Ohio State are at least theoretically alive for a double-bye.  If Ohio State beats Illinois tonight in Columbus and Iowa beats them in Champaign this Sunday then Illinois, Iowa, Penn State (assuming they win in Evanston this Saturday), and Ohio State (if they win in East Lansing this Sunday) will all be tied for 4th place.  
• Northwestern and Nebraska will get the #13 and #14 seeds but the order of those is, at least mathematically, TBD.  Northwestern swept the series so they win a tie but they do NOT technically control their own destiny because Nebraska has two games remaining.  If Nebraska wins their last two games (@M tonight, @MN Sunday) they would get the #13 seed.  The Cornhuskers would also get the #13 seed by winning one of their last two unless Northwestern wins their last game (vPSU Saturday).  

[medinabuckeye1]

Tonight's games and what they mean to the participants:

• Nebraska at Michigan, 630pm on FS1:  I've been hesitant to call Michigan a lock because their worst-case-scenario is still iffy IMHO.  If they win tonight they will erase all doubt and become an NCAA Lock.  Additionally, the win would move the Wolverines into a tie with Rutgers at 10-9.  They would be a game behind PSU and Iowa and either a game behind or tied with Ohio State.  For Nebraska there are no post-season implications but a win here would probably allow them to avoid finishing dead last in the league.  
• Illinois at Ohio State, 7pm on ESPN:  The Illini would move into a tie with UMD, MSU, and UW for first place in the league and control their own destiny for at least a share of the regular season Championship with a win.  If they lose they will be all alone in 4th place one game behind the aforementioned UMD, MSU, and UW and one game ahead of PSU, IA, and tOSU.  For Ohio State a win would clinch no worse than the #7 seed in the BTT.  The Buckeyes would only be one game ahead of Rutgers and Michigan (if they beat Nebraska) but the Buckeyes went 1-0 against Rutgers (no game in Picastaway) and 2-0 against Michigan (won in Ann Arbor) so they would win any possible tie with either or both of those teams.  With a loss the Buckeyes would move into a tie with Rutgers and Michigan (if they beat Nebraska) for 7th/8th/9th.  Assuming that the Buckeyes are not going to win in East Lansing this Sunday, a win this weekend by either Rutgers (@PU) or Michigan (@UMD) or both would knock the Buckeyes into the 8/9 game next Thursday at noon in Indy.  

[medinabuckeye1]

All of the teams that can mathematically finish in or tied for each spot in the B1G:

• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL, PSU, IA, tOSU
• IL, PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M
• IL, PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M
• IL, PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• MN
• NU, UNL
• NU, UNL

If the favorites (tOSU, M) win tonight:

• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL, PSU, IA, tOSU
• IL, PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M
• IL, PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M
• IL, PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• RU, M, IU, PU
• RU, M, IU, PU
• MN
• UNL, NU
• UNL, NU

If Illinois and Michigan win tonight:

• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• MN
• NU, UNL
• NU, UNL

If Ohio State and Nebraska win tonight:

• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL, PSU, IA, tOSU
• IL, PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M
• IL, PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M
• IL, PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• RU, M, IU, PU
• RU, M, IU, PU
• MN
• UNL, NU
• UNL, NU

If the underdogs (IL and UNL) both win tonight:

• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• UMD, MSU, UW, IL
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• PSU, IA, tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• tOSU, RU, M, IU, PU
• MN
• UNL, NU
• UNL, NU

[Brutus Buckeye]

What series of outcomes down the stretch would lead to an early OSU-Michigan match up in the Big Ten Tourney?

[bayareabadger]

I'm not trying to be obtuse, and I'm surprised that you see a multi-dimensional offense. What I see on a massive percentage of possessions: 4 out, 1 in; 1-guard advances ball, passes to O-3 on the wing or the 2-guard, who then looks for O-4 on the other wing. Wing player looks for pass to O-5 on post (rarely has it), swings back to guard (or whichever player has run his blocks back to the O-1 or O-2 spots. Rinse, repeat. Pass to O-5 when available. O-5, when he has it, looks for shot from there, with limited creativity with the ball. Little dribbling/cutting with the ball to attack the paint (Davison does the most). Over-simplified? Yes. Reuvers is the high scorer? Yes (at least I think he still is). Does it work? Yes, most of the time.

But when it doesn't, the Badgers have very little ability to do anything else.

So I watch it and I see more flexibility than that. The possession I just watched on a rematch, you have 1 dribble into a handoff, ball comes across to a point guard comes off the screen, that passer cuts toward the basket off a screen, screener sets a pick for the far corner player to curl, screener pops, goes into an unbalanced pick and roll, throws out top to a guard who looks to feed the post and then drives. It's always gonna be an offense with 15 seconds of flow and then a high ball screen play.

The places I'm confused are fist, what is "creativity with the ball."? And second what is these other dimensions? 

I mean, they're not an all-out driving team, and that's mostly going to happen because they rarely have good drivers and they tend to probe under control and drive opportunistically. They'll take pull ups, run pick and pops, pick and roll and replace plays, feed the post and attack when the opportunity this there, or have a guard like Davison postup. But I don't know that I see a lack of ability to do things, if only because I'm not sure what these other things are. 

[medinabuckeye1]

What series of outcomes down the stretch would lead to an early OSU-Michigan match up in the Big Ten Tourney?

You always want that.  

I'll wait until after tonight's games to tackle that.  Right now both teams still have two games left so there are a lot of possibilities.  After tonight it will be simpler.  

Right now it appears highly unlikely because tOSU is likely to end up at the #7 seed while Michigan is likely to end up in the 8/9 game so the only way they could play each other in the tournament would be if the both made it to the CG.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

The places I'm confused are fist, what is "creativity with the ball."? And second what is these other dimensions?

I sometimes think of that one... Complaining about "creativity with the ball"... 

I feel like that's code for "Hey, you no-talent hack? Why can't you just blow by your guy with elite athleticism like you're in the NBA and he's in high school? Get creative with the ball, moron!"

[MaximumSam]

An extremely tight whistle not helping the buckeyes

[ELA]

An extremely tight whistle not helping the buckeyes

Turned out it did