2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Locks:

This is a quick rehash of a discussion that we seem to have every year around this time.  I define a "Lock" as a team that could literally lose EVERY remaining game including getting the worst possible opponent in BTT games, and face the strongest possible bubble and STILL make the tournament.  Ie, I am VERY conservative in the use of the term "LOCK".  I'm putting this here because as we get closer to the NCAA Tournament it will come up.  

Right now, as I see it:

2 Locks:

• 22-4/12-3 Maryland:  and they do not face either UNL or NU down the stretch so any losses that they did take would be at least "not bad".  If they lost out they would end the regular season 12-8/22-9 and even with a quick exit in Indianapolis and what would be a six-game losing streak I am confident that they would get in at 22-10.  
• 20-6/10-5 Penn State:  If they lost out they would end the regular season 10-10/20-11 and even with a quick exit in Indianapolis and what would be a seven-game losing streak I am confident that they would get in at 20-12.  

3 Should be in (Definitely in if the tournament started today, but can't just mail in the rest of the season):

• 18-8/9-6 Iowa:  It is hard to imagine them missing the tournament but losing out would put them at 18-14 and on a six-game skid.  They would probably make it anyway but that would be close.  
• 17-9/9-6 Michigan State:  It is hard to imagine them missing the tournament but losing out would put them at 17-15 and on a seven-game skid.  That is not a good formula for making the tournament.  
• 17-9/9-6 Illinois:  They just had a huge win at PSU but prior to that they lost four straight.  Losing out would put them at 17-15, on a six-game skid, and losers of 10 of their last 11 games.  Additionally, at least two of the losses would be bad losses (vUNL, @NU).  IMHO, that would not get them in.  

5 Work to do (Probably in if the tournament started today, but need to keep winning to stay there):

• 16-10/9-6 Wisconsin:  Based solely on their league record they should be in but their OOC is not good.  The four OOC losses were to St Marys (3rd in the WCC), Richmond (3rd in the A10), New Mexico (sub .500 in the MWC), and NCST (.500 in the ACC).  The biggest wins were Marquette (~.500 BE) and Tennessee (~.500 SEC).  They clearly have some nice wins in conference but they still have work to do.  
• 18-8/9-6 Rutgers:  Their league record is good, but they haven't actually done anything all that impressive.  Note that they have zero upset wins per the tiers.  They have done a good job of protecting the home court but their only win away from home all year was at Nebraska.  Their OOC is a nice win over Seton Hall, a rod loss to Pitt (sub .500 in the ACC), a neutral site loss to St Bonaventure (4th in the A10) and a whole bunch of crap.  They are in a good position right now but they still have work to do.  
• 17-8/7-7 Ohio State:  Their league record is obviously mediocre but they have a solid OOC.  They would be in if the tournament started today but they clearly have work to do.  
• 16-9/7-7 Michigan:  Their league record is mediocre bu they have a solid OOC.  Their two OOC losses were to (still) highly ranked L'Ville and Oregon teams and they still have this year's only win over Gonzaga.  They would be in if the tournament started today but they clearly have work to do.  
• 16-9/6-8 Indiana:  Their OOC was pretty weak but they rolled through it with the exception of an ugly home loss to Arkansas (4-9 SEC).  In conference they have mostly won at home (except for losses to PU and UMD) and lost on the road (except for a win at UNL).  It would REALLY help if they could win in West Lafayette to compensate for the earlier home loss to PU.  That and three home wins would get them to a .500 finish in conference.  

2 Significant work to do (borderline if the tournament started today, needs improvement):

• 14-13/7-9 Purdue:  The OOC wasn't terrible but it wasn't very good either.  Three of the four losses were to currently ranked teams (Marquette, FSU, Butler) but the other one was at home to a Texas team that is 4-8 in the B12.  In conference they have won the home games (with the exceptions of IL and PSU) and lost the road games (with the exceptions of NU and IU).  The best news is that three of their last four are at home (M, IU, RU).  If they win those they'll finish at least .500 in the league.  If not they could be in trouble.  
• 12-12/6-8 Minnesota:  The OOC was not good and in conference they have a few nice wins (2xtOSU, M, PSU, UW) but they also have a slew of losses.  Their biggest problem right now is that they are just .500 overall so they need wins, lots of wins.  They are going to need to win the games they should win and pull off an upset or two to get to the dance.  

2 Need to win BTT:

• 7-18/2-12 Nebraska:  Two of the Huskers' first three league home games were Purdue and Iowa and they won them both.  Unfortunately that was a LONG time ago and they are now on a 10 game skid.  The best they could do without winning the BTT would be 17-19 and that would not be enough.  
• 6-19/1-14 Northwestern:  The best they could do without winning the BTT would be 15-20 and that would not be enough.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue needs at least 3 of the next 4, as you point out. But even with the three home wins that'll just be 17-14. I think they need one BTT win on top of that to be on the right side of the bubble. If somehow they went 4-0 in the remaining regular season games to finish 18-13, I think they'd be safe regardless of the BTT. 

I think their strength of schedule and the quality of their wins make 18 the magic number right now. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Purdue needs at least 3 of the next 4, as you point out. But even with the three home wins that'll just be 17-14. I think they need one BTT win on top of that to be on the right side of the bubble. If somehow they went 4-0 in the remaining regular season games to finish 18-13, I think they'd be safe regardless of the BTT.

I think their strength of schedule and the quality of their wins make 18 the magic number right now.

We are on the same page.  I like the set-up for PU down the stretch with three of four at home (M, IU, R).  We project them to win those, lose in Iowa City, and finish 17-14/10-10. 

I think that would be really close, close enough that PU fans would be sweating out the BTT.  Based on the projections that would get them the #9 seed and a date with Rutgers at noon on Thursday in Indy.  Losing to a tournament-bound Rutgers on a neutral floor wouldn't be a bad loss but it would knock Purdue's final record down to 17-15 which would definitely be problematic.  

With a win in the 8/9 game the Boilermakers would move to 18-14 and get a date with the Regular Season Champion at noon on Friday in Indy.  I DO NOT think that they would need to win that for two reasons:

• I agree with you that PU's magic number is probably 18, and
• A neutral-floor loss to Maryland would be almost as good of a loss as one could get.  

If they lose one of the home games and fail to compensate for that by winning in Iowa City I think they'll need a significant run in Indy.  Finishing 2-2 would get the Boilermakers to 16-15/9-11.  Has there ever been an at-large team with 16 losses?  I'm not sure.  If that happens they would probably be around the #9-#12 seed.  In that case I think their best chance would be to lose the relevant tiebreaker and get either the #11 or #12 seed such that they get an easy Wednesday game against UNL or NU.  At that point:

• Winning Wednesday gets them to 17-16, not enough.  
• Winning Wednesday and Thursday gets them to 18-16 with an extra quality win, maybe.  
• Winning Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday gets them to 19-16 with two extra quality wins, probably.  
• Getting to the B1GCG gets them to 20-16 with three extra quality wins, in.  
• Winning the BTT gets them to 21-16 with four extra quality wins and an auto-bid, in.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Per Lunardi via the Worldwide leader, 10 B1G teams are currently in with Indiana as the first team out.  They are:

• n/a
• Maryland
• Penn State
• n/a
• n/a
• tOSU, MSU
• Michigan, Iowa
• Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois
• n/a
• Purdue

That would result in some pretty tough games in the second round.  Provided our teams made it to the second round they would likely be facing:

• Three #1 seeds (Kansas, SDSU, Gonzaga)
• Three #2 seeds (Dayton, Dook, FSU)
• Two #3 seeds (Seton Hall, WVU)
• One #6 seed (Butler)
• One #7 seed (TxTech)

[medinabuckeye1]

More in depth on the teams closest to the bubble:
Significant work to do:
14-13/7-9 Purdue:  Covered above by @bwarbiany and I.  

6-8/12-12 Minnesota:  As I stated above, the biggest problem for the Gophers is their .500 overall record.  I believe (per a google search) that the most losses EVER for an at-large team is 15.  Minnesota would have to go no worse than 4-2 in their last six regular season games to end up with 15 losses and in the at-large conversation.  Their last six games are IU, UMD, and UNL at home along with NU, UW, and IU on the road.  Going 4-2 would not be implausible.  They'd need to win the home games (or possibly lose at home to UMD) and win the NU (and possibly IU) road game(s).  Even that, however, would only get them to 10-10/16-14.  They would still probably need at least one win in Indy.  

Work to do:
16-10/9-6 Wisconsin:  The best news is that three of their final five games are at home (RU, MN, NU).  Winning just those would get them to a final record of 19-12/12-8 and I think that would be enough even with a quick exit in Indy. They should be fine and if they win their next three (vRU, @M, vMN) I'll call them a lock at 19-10/12-6.  

18-8/9-6 Rutgers:  The Scarlet Knights have a very difficult stretch run.  Three of their last five games (UW, PSU, PU) are on the road and one of the two home games is against Maryland.  They look good where they are right now, but it isn't difficult to imagine them going 1-4 or worse down the stretch to finish 19-12/10-10 or 18-13/9-11.  Their OOC is not as strong as most B1G teams so that might not be enough.  If they lose at home to Michigan tonight they could be in big trouble and remember that they already lost to Michigan in a virtual home game at MSG.  

17-8/7-7 Ohio State:  The stretch run for the Buckeyes is interesting.  They have three home games but one of them is Maryland and three road games but one of them is Nebraska.  We project them to win the home games except UMD and lose the road games except UNL and thus finish 20-11/10-10.  I find it interesting because it wouldn't be shocking for them to finish either 4-2 or 2-4.  That translates to a huge difference in final regular season record between 21-10/11-9 and 19-12/9-11.  Add in an upset one way or the other and this could be anywhere from easily a lock heading into the BTT playing for maybe a #5 seed or a bubble team heading into Indy.  

16-9/7-7 Michigan:  The concern for the Wolverines is that four of their last six are on the road (RU, PU, tOSU, UMD).  It also would not be shocking for them to lose at home to Wisconsin so a 1-5 stretch run to finish 17-14/8-12 is not implausible.  OTOH, if they win the home games and steal a road win they'll be pretty comfortable at 19-12/10-10.  

16-9/6-8 Indiana:  The Hoosiers finish with three at home (PSU, MN, UW) and three on the road (MN, PU, IL).  The major concern for them is that, like Rutgers, their OOC is not as strong as most B1G teams so a 3-3 stretch run to finish 19-12/9-11 might not be enough.  If they lose one of the home games and fail to compensate for that by stealing one on the road they could be in big trouble.  

[mcwterps1]

Maryland could clinch as early as next Wednesday, February 26.  If they win in Columbus (Sunday) and Minneapolis (next Wednesday) they would improve to 14-3.  Thus, the worst they could do would be 14-6.  That would eliminate IU, MN, tOSU, M.  Additionally, it would mean that IA, RU, IL, MSU, and UW could do no better than a tie (if they win out from today forward).  That only leaves PSU and the Nittany Lions are currently 10-5 so the best they can do is 15-5.  Between now and next Wednesday they visit Bloomington and host Rutgers.  If Penn State were to lose either of those games then Maryland would clinch at least a share of the title by beating Ohio State and Minnesota. 

It's just crazy.

I see flashes, but then I see a discombobulated group of individuals who can't hit the backboard, let alone make a layup. 

Without Cowan, we're a bottom dweller. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I'll do an update after tonight's games but both games last night resulted in upsets.  Indiana's and Michigan's wins in Minneapolis and Picastaway were very helpful to IU's and M's tournament chances and severely detrimental to MN's and RU's tournament chances.  

We now project IU and M to finish 10-10 tied with tOSU and PU for 7th/8th/9th/10th while RU and MN project to finish in 11th and 12th at 9-11 and 8-12 respectively.  

Regarding tournament chances:
Minnesota:  The Gophers are now below .500 overall (12-13) and just 6-9 in the league.  They still could make it, but they are rapidly running out of time and they need to start winning immediately.  The good news is that two of their last five games are against NU and UNL.  The bad news is that the other three are vsUMD, @UW, and @IU and the Gophers probably need to win out.  

Rutgers:  The Scarlet Knights are a good illustration of why we do the tiers.  They are still 9-7 in conference but at the end of January they were 7-3 and looking really good.  I've been saying for weeks now that it was partially a product of schedule and it is/was.  They didn't get to 7-3 by pulling off a bunch of upsets, they got there because they have a back-loaded schedule.  So far in February they are 2-4 and their two remaining games this month are in Madison and State College.  March doesn't get much better with a home game against Maryland and a game in West Lafayette.  

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW, breaking the 10-10 tie for 7th/8th/9th/10th between tOSU, PU, M, and IU:

I start with the fact that they would be projected to all win the home games so if they all played each other twice they would all go 3-3.  

Next I subtract out games not played:

• 3-2 tOSU (no game in West Lafayette
• 3-2 M (no game in Bloomington)
• 2-3 PU (does not host tOSU)
• 2-3 IU (does not host M)

Next I add/subtract for upsets:

• 4-1 tOSU (won in Ann Arbor)
• 3-2 PU (won in Bloomington)
• 2-3 M (lost at home to tOSU)
• 1-4 IU (lost at home to PU)

Thus the seeds would be:

• #7 tOSU 10-10/20-11
• #8 PU 10-10/17-14
• #9 M 10-10/19-12
• #10 IU 10-10/20-11

They would play each other on Thursday in Indy with:

• #7 tOSU vs #10 IU at 6:30pm on BTN
• #8 PU vs #9 M at noon on BTN

The PU/M winner would get Maryland on Friday at noon while the tOSU/IU winner would get PSU on Friday at 6:30pm.  

[MichiFan87]

Great win last night, especially without Livers. Still don't know why they played Nunez in the first half, but fortunately they played Castleton in the second half who played great, so hopefully he stays at the front of the bench aside from DeJulius and Davis.

[bayareabadger]

I’m still on board with the idea Wisconsin only needs to get to 18 wins. Resume is strong enough, I think, with only one loss outside Q1/2. 

If they can beat Rutgers, 18 should be a shoo-in.  If they want to beat RU and Minnesota (Michigan seems a long shot), they could be at 19-11 heading to IU who suddenly seems feisty again.

[Abba]

Feb has been pretty great so far for the Buckeyes after an awful January.  Tonight though, I'm expecting an ugly loss against Iowa.  After that, the Buckeyes would need to go 3-2 to get to 10-10.  @Nebraska is the "easy" one, with some very tough homes games against Illinois, MD, and a surging Michigan.  I'm also counting @MSU as basically a sure loss.  

[847badgerfan]

Does the committee still put weight on the last 10 games?

[ELA]

Does the committee still put weight on the last 10 games?

I believe no

[847badgerfan]

That's too bad.