2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

Does the committee still put weight on the last 10 games?

I thought that was done away with.

And thank God. 

[847badgerfan]

I thought that was done away with.

And thank God.

Why would you not want the last 10 to count more? You know, power rankings and all that?


Let's say Maryland lost Cowin for their last 6. Would they be as good?

[MaximumSam]

DJ Carton coming back to campus. Timeframe for rejoining the team still unclear

[Abba]

Why would you not want the last 10 to count more? You know, power rankings and all that?


Let's say Maryland lost Cowin for their last 6. Would they be as good?

Same reason we do these tiers.  Some schedules are front or back loaded.  Just not an objective measurement really.

[ELA]

Why would you not want the last 10 to count more? You know, power rankings and all that?


Let's say Maryland lost Cowin for their last 6. Would they be as good?

I also hate basing resumes on injuries.  Your resume should be your resume IMO.

[bayareabadger]

Why would you not want the last 10 to count more? You know, power rankings and all that?


Let's say Maryland lost Cowin for their last 6. Would they be as good?

Several reasons
-Stat studies have shown late season weighting doesn’t do much to project quality
-As ABBA said, schedules are unbalanced. And having a last 10 flattens it out. UW is 6-4 in its last games. What does that mean?
-10 games of a kinda arbitrary thing. It used to be nearly 2/3rds of the conference schedule. Now it’s nearly.

Basically, it’s just not super meaningful.

If you want to bump down a team for losing a star, maybe that’s cool. But if they lose him in their last game of the BTT, they will be very good in the last 10 and you have the same issue.

[medinabuckeye1]

Does the committee still put weight on the last 10 games?

Lots of commentary on this issue.  

I believe that it is no longer a stated criteria.  However, I rather imagine that at least some committee members consider how a team finishes to be a relevant issue.  

I agree with the comment above that the 10 games thing is arbitrary and since that is no longer a stated criteria, I think the relevant issue now is a more general question of how you started vs how you finished.  Ie, upthread I discussed worst-case-scenarios for most of our teams.  I noted, for example, that Illinois' worst-case-scenario would be to finish on a six-game losing streak, losers of 10 or their last 11 games, with at least two bad losses in there (vUNL, @NU).  I believe that if that happened, at least some committee members would take that awful finish into account.  

OTOH, I agree with @Abba 's comment.  If a team goes 3-7 in their last 10 but those last 10 include seven REALLY tough games then that doesn't mean that it was a bad finish, it just means that they had a back-loaded schedule.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Anyone know the extent of Livers' injuries? Is he going to be available Saturday @Purdue?

[TyphonInc]

Gawd, Refs are bad. My Bucks get a couple of Bad Calls their way, and they are still down 14.

[ELA]

+14 on the glass and shooting over 40% from 3.  Up just 3 because we have 11 turnovers and are 0-4 on FTs

[mcwterps1]

Why would you not want the last 10 to count more? You know, power rankings and all that?


Let's say Maryland lost Cowin for their last 6. Would they be as good?

Stay away from Cowan. I don't like where your head is at. LOL

[medinabuckeye1]

No surprises last night so our updated projections heading into the last full weekend in February are:

• 17-3/27-4 Maryland
• 13-7/21-10 Illinois
• 13-7/23-8 Penn State
• 12-8/20-11 Michigan State
• 12-8/21-10 Iowa
• 12-8/19-12 Wisconsin
• 10-10/20-11 Ohio State
• 10-10/17-14 Purdue
• 10-10/19-12 Michigan
• 10-10/20-11 Indiana
• 9-11/18-13 Rutgers
• 8-12/14-16 Minnesota
• 3-17/8-23 Nebraska
• 1-19/6-24 Northwestern

The tiebreakers are:
For the two-way tie at 13-7 for 2nd/3rd:

• Illinois wins based on their 1-0 record against Penn State.  The teams only play once this year, in State College, and Illinois won.  

For the three-way tie at 12-8 for 4th/5th/6th:
The first tiebreaker is H2H2H:

• 2-1 MSU (no game in Iowa City)
• 1-1 IA (no game in Madison, does not host MSU)
• 1-2 UW (does not host IA)

For the four-way tie at 10-10 for 7th/8th/9th/10th:
The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H:

• 4-1 tOSU (no game in West Lafayette, won in Ann Arbor)
• 3-2 PU (does not host tOSU, won in Bloomington)
• 2-3 M (no game in Bloomington, lost at home to tOSU)
• 1-4 IU (does not host M, lost at home to PU)

Thus, the BTT match-ups in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 11, 2020:

• #11 Rutgers vs #14 Northwestern, 930pm, BTN
• #12 Minnesota vs #13 Nebraska, 6pm, BTN

Thursday, March 12, 2020:

• #5 Iowa vs MN/UNL, 230pm, BTN
• #6 Wisconsin vs RU/NU, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Ohio State vs #10 Indiana, 630pm, BTN
• #8 Purdue vs #9 Michigan, noon, BTN

Friday, March 13, 2020:

• #1 Maryland vs PU/M, noon, BTN
• #2 Illinois vs tOSU/IU, 630pm, BTN
• #3 Penn State vs UW/RU/NU, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Michigan State vs IA/MN/UNL, 230pm, BTN

Saturday, March 14, 2020:

• UMD/PU/M vs MSU/IA/MN/UNL, 1pm, CBS
• IL/tOSU/IU vs PSU/UW/RU/NU, 330pm, CBS

Sunday, March 15, 2020:

• UMD/PU/M/MSU/IA/MN/UNL vs IL/tOSU/IU/PSU/UW/RU/NU, 330pm, CBS

A couple of notes:

• As usual, please note that this is all VERY fluid due to there being so many teams projected to finish so close together.  
• Teams are going to start clinching seeds very soon.  Maryland can clinch the #1 seed as early as next week (with wins @tOSU and @MN and a PSU loss either @IU or vRU).  

[medinabuckeye1]

Locks:

This is a quick rehash of a discussion that we seem to have every year around this time.  I define a "Lock" as a team that could literally lose EVERY remaining game including getting the worst possible opponent in BTT games, and face the strongest possible bubble and STILL make the tournament.  Ie, I am VERY conservative in the use of the term "LOCK".  I'm putting this here because as we get closer to the NCAA Tournament it will come up. 

Right now, as I see it:

4 Locks:

• 22-4/12-3 Maryland:  They do not face either UNL or NU down the stretch so any losses that they did take would be at least "not bad".  If they lost out they would end the regular season 12-8/22-9 and even with a quick exit in Indianapolis and what would be a six-game losing streak I am confident that they would get in at 22-10. 
• 20-6/10-5 Penn State:  If they lost out they would end the regular season 10-10/20-11 and even with a quick exit in Indianapolis and what would be a seven-game losing streak I am confident that they would get in at 20-12. 
• 19-8/10-6 Iowa:  Their worst-case-scenario is now 19-13 and that would be enough for them.  Even if they lost out, none of the losses (@MSU, vPSU, vPU, @IL, BTT) would be all that bad.  
• 18-9/10-6 Michigan State:  Their worst-case-scenario is now 18-14 and that would be enough for them.  Even if they lost out, none of the losses (vIA, @UMD, @PSU, vtOSU, BTT) would be all that bad.  

1 Should be in (Definitely in if the tournament started today, but can't just mail in the rest of the season):

• 17-9/9-6 Illinois:  They just had a huge win at PSU but prior to that they lost four straight.  Losing out would put them at 17-15, on a six-game skid, and losers of 10 of their last 11 games.  Additionally, at least two of the losses would be bad losses (vUNL, @NU).  IMHO, that would not get them in. 

5 Work to do (Probably in if the tournament started today, but need to keep winning to stay there):

• 16-10/9-6 Wisconsin:  Based solely on their league record they should be in but their OOC is not good.  The four OOC losses were to St Marys (3rd in the WCC), Richmond (3rd in the A10), New Mexico (sub .500 in the MWC), and NCST (.500 in the ACC).  The biggest wins were Marquette (~.500 BE) and Tennessee (~.500 SEC).  They clearly have some nice wins in conference but they still have work to do. 
• 18-9/9-7 Rutgers:  Their league record is good, but they haven't actually done anything all that impressive.  Note that they have zero upset wins per the tiers.  They have done a good job of protecting the home court but their only win away from home all year was at Nebraska.  Their OOC is a nice win over Seton Hall, a rod loss to Pitt (sub .500 in the ACC), a neutral site loss to St Bonaventure (4th in the A10) and a whole bunch of crap.  They are in a good position right now but they still have work to do. 
• 17-9/7-8 Ohio State:  Their league record is obviously mediocre but they have a solid OOC.  They would be in if the tournament started today but they clearly have work to do. 
• 17-9/8-7 Michigan:  Their league record is mediocre but they have a solid OOC.  Their two OOC losses were to (still) highly ranked L'Ville and Oregon teams and they still have this year's only win over Gonzaga.  They would be in if the tournament started today but they clearly have work to do. 
• 17-9/7-8 Indiana:  Their OOC was pretty weak but they rolled through it with the exception of an ugly home loss to Arkansas (4-9 SEC).  In conference they have mostly won at home (except for losses to PU and UMD) and lost on the road (except for wins at UNL and MN).  The recent win in Minneapolis REALLY helps.  It would REALLY help if they could win in West Lafayette to compensate for the earlier home loss to PU.  That and three home wins would get them to a .500 finish in conference. 

2 Significant work to do (borderline if the tournament started today, needs improvement):

• 14-13/7-9 Purdue:  The OOC wasn't terrible but it wasn't very good either.  Three of the four losses were to currently ranked teams (Marquette, FSU, Butler) but the other one was at home to a Texas team that is 4-8 in the B12.  In conference they have won the home games (with the exceptions of IL and PSU) and lost the road games (with the exceptions of NU and IU).  The best news is that three of their last four are at home (M, IU, RU).  If they win those they'll finish at least .500 in the league.  If not they could be in trouble. 
• 12-13/6-9 Minnesota:  The OOC was not good and in conference they have a few nice wins (2xtOSU, M, PSU, UW) but they also have a slew of losses.  Their biggest problem right now is that they are UNDER .500 overall so they need wins, lots of wins.  They are going to need to win the games they should win and pull off an upset or two to get to the dance.  With the recent home loss to Indiana, the Gophers are out of time.  They need to start winning, NOW.  I do think that they still have at least a theoretical shot at an at-large bid but they are going to drop into the "need to win BTT" category VERY soon if they don't start winning.  

2 Need to win BTT:

• 7-19/2-13 Nebraska:  Two of the Huskers' first three league home games were Purdue and Iowa and they won them both.  Unfortunately that was a LONG time ago and they are now on a 10 game skid.  The best they could do without winning the BTT would be 17-19 and that would not be enough. 
• 6-19/1-14 Northwestern:  The best they could do without winning the BTT would be 15-20 and that would not be enough.  

I updated the above.  I believe that last night's winners (IA and MSU) are now locks.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Our 14 teams have each played 15 or 16 league games so far.  All except Iowa, MSU, RU, and PU have played 15, those four have played 16.  This weekend and next week (through Thursday) all except Iowa and MSU have two games, they only have one each.  At this point next week all B1G teams except RU and PU will have played 17 league games.  Those games and what they mean for those teams:

Locks:

• 12-3/22-4 Maryland:  The Terps are at Ohio State Sunday at noon on CBS and at Minnesota Wednesday at 9 on BTN:  They have already locked up a bid and are generally considered a 2-seed as of right now.  They need to keep winning to hold onto that seed and keep within striking distance of the top four in case one of them stumbles.  If the Terps were to win out (including BTT) they would finish 30-4 with an outright regular season B1G Title AND a BTT Title.  That would be a strong case for a #1 seed.  
• 10-5/20-6 Penn State:  The Nittany Lions are at Indiana Sunday at noon on FS1 and host Rutgers Wednesday at 7 on BTN.  They have already locked up a bid and are considered about a #4 seed right now.  Winning both games would help to possibly lift their seed and get them a more favorable (or at least less dis-favorable) first and second round location.  The Worldwide leader currently projects them heading to Sacramento to likely take on Oregon in the second round which just SUCKS for a #4 seed which should, at least theoretically, be favored against their corresponding #5.  
• 10-6/19-8 Iowa:  The Hawkeyes are at MSU Tuesday at 7 on ESPN2.  They currently project as a #6 seed and a win in East Lansing would really help to improve that.  
• 10-6/18-9 Michigan State:  The Spartans host IA Tuesday at 7 on ESPN2.  They currently project as a #5 seed and need to keep winning to keep alive the potential for a favorable first weekend location.  

Should be in:

• 9-6/17-9 Illinois:  The Illini host Nebraska at 8pm Monday on BTN and visit Northwestern Thursday at 8pm on BTN.  They currently project as a #8 seed heading to Omaha to face Florida then Baylor.  They need wins to get off the dreaded 8/9 lines where a second-round loss is nearly assured.  Losses to UNL and NU would be particularly bad.  

Work to do:

• 9-6/16-10 Wisconsin:  The Badgers host RU Sunday at 1pm on BTN and visit Michigan Thursday at 7 on ESPN2.  They currently project as a #7 seed heading to Greensboro to play Oklahoma then Dook.  They need to keep winning to get out of such a difficult second-round match-up.  
• 9-7/18-9 Rutgers:  The Scarlet Knights are at Wisconsin Sunday at 1 on BTN then at Penn State Wednesday at 7 on BTN.  The currently project as a #8 seed heading to Spokane to play Xavier then Gonzaga.  They need wins to get off the dreaded 8/9 line.  
• 7-8/17-9 Ohio State:  The Buckeyes host Maryland Sunday at 4 on CBS then visit Nebraska Thursday at 9 on ESPN2.  They currently project as a #6 seed heading to St. Louis to play N. Iowa then Louisville and need wins to keep that from slipping into less favorable territory and possibly improve it.  
• 8-7/17-9 Michigan:  The Wolverines visit Purdue Saturday at 2 on ESPN then host Wisconsin Thursday at 7 on ESPN2.  They currently project as a #7 seed heading to Cleveland to face UVA then Dayton.  They need to keep winning to hopefully improve that.  
• 7-8/17-9 Indiana:  The Hoosiers host PSU Sunday at noon on FS1 then travel to Purdue Thursday at 7 on FS1.  Their win in Minneapolis moved them from "First Four Out" to "Last Four In" which is not an insignificant distinction but it still leaves them travelling to Dayton to take on Richmond for the right to join the actual field of 64 to travel to Albany to take on Arizona then Villanova.  They need to keep winning to stay on the right side of the bubble and hopefully get away from the extra game.  

Significant work to do:

• 7-9/14-13 Purdue:  The Boilermakers host Michigan Saturday at 2 on ESPN then host IU Thursday at 7 on FS1.  They have lost three straight and are now listed as the first team out.  They need wins to get on the right side of the bubble and REALLY can't afford to lose either of the home games this week.  
• 6-9/12-13 Minnesota:  The Gophers travel to NU Sunday at 3 on BTN then host UMD Wednesday at 9 on BTN.  They have lost three straight and five of six and fallen off the bubble.  They need to start winning NOW to at least get back on the bubble.  Losses in both of these two games would likely finish them.  The clock is ticking loudly for the Gophers, they need to start winning immediately.  

Need to win BTT:

• 2-13/7-19 Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers are at IL Monday at 8pm on BTN then host tOSU Thursday at 9 on ESPN2.  They have no shot at an at-large bid but it would be nice for them if they could at least finish up looking competitive.  
• 1-14/6-19 Northwestern:  The Wildcats host MN Sunday at 3 on BTN then host IL Thursday at 8 on BTN.  They have no shot at an at-large bid and just losing close would be a significant improvement.